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FourteenthMee+ngofthePartnershipAssemblyLima,PeruApril26-28,2016
SuphacholSuphachalasaiPMRSecretariat
POLICYANALYSISWORKPROGRAM:REPORTOFFY16ACTIVITIESANDPROPOSALFORFY17
(PMRNOTEPA142016-2)
2
Contents
Ø BackgroundØ UpdatesinFY16
Ø Country-levelØ Program-level
Ø ProposedAc+vi+esforFY17andbeyondØ Country-levelØ Program-level
Ø Nextsteps
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Ø PA8:ProposalonUpstreamPolicyWork(PMRNotePA82014-2)–supportfortheanalysisanddevelopmentofpolicyop4onsformid-andlong-ternmi4ga4onobjec4ves
Ø PA9:Officiallaunch(Resolu+onNo.PA9/2014-3)
Ø PA10:UpdateonPMRUpstreamAnaly+calWork
Ø PA11:Updateoftheprogressmadeandpresenta+ononthe“ChecklistforEstablishingPost-2020Mi+ga+onScenarios”
Ø PA12:Endorsementofcon+nua+on(Resolu+onNo.PA12/2015-1)
Ø PA13:Update+EOIsreceivedfromcountries(PMRNotePA132015-2)–toiden4fyapackageofpolicies/measures,understandimpactsandbarriers,andachieveeffec4vepolicydesign,relevantto(I)NDCsanduseofcarbonpricing
PolicyAnalysisWorkProgram:Background
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PolicyAnalysisWorkPrograminFY16
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Country-levelacUviUesinFY16Country DescripUon
Brazil Climateimpactonenergysystem;low-hydroscenarioto2030andimplica+ononthermalgenera+onincreaseandoffsetthroughEE,inputtoINDC
Chile Modelingofpolicyop+onsanddevelopingac+onplanforenergysectorinINDC,buildingonpastworkoncarbontaxmodelingandpolicyinterac+on
Colombia Macro-economicmodelingofcarbonpricinginstruments,contribu+ngtoINDC;modelingofETSdesignop+onsanddesignroadmap
CostaRica Developingmodelingframeworkandcapacitybuildingforexploringdecarboniza+onpathwaystoachieveINDCtargets
Morocco Iden+fyingeffec+vepoliciesandmarket-basedinstrumentstoachieveINDCtargetsandprovideincen+vesforlow-carbonac+ons
Peru Low-carbonscenariosandMACcurvesby2030andtheirmacro-economicimpacts,contribu+ngtoINDCtargetsandcross-sectoraldiscussion
SouthAfrica Analysisoftheprinciplesandeffec+venessofcombiningcarbonbudgetandcarbontaxinachievingmi+ga+ongoals
Turkey Supportforstrengtheninglocalmodelingcapacityandtoolsforanalyzingmid-tolong-termemissiontrajectory,policyop+onsandimpacts
Vietnam Assessingpolicyop+onsthatwoulds+mulatemi+ga+onac+onsandprivate-sectorinvestmentstowardmee+ngINDCtargets
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Program-levelinFY16:BrasiliaTechnicalWorkshop
v Feb1st-3rd,2016v HostedbytheBrazilian
MinistryofFinancev 50+par+cipants(policy
makersandtechnicalexperts
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Ø Otherac+vi+esputforwardattheworkshopincluded:(i)MAC-basedsimula+ontool;(ii)modelingtoolsandanalysisofmi+ga+onpathwaysincludingINDCs;(iii)assessmentoflinkingna+onalmarketstocreateregionalmarkets;(iv)assessmentofcostandpriceimpactofcarbonpricingpolicies;and(v)strategiesandapproachesforna+onalstakeholderengagementandconsensusbuilding
Ø Basedontheworkshopoutcomes,thePAWPproposalwouldbesubmi[edforvirtualfeedback
BrasiliaTechnicalWorkshop–KeyOutcomes
Poten&alPAWPac&vi&esiden&fiedattheTechnicalWorkshop
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Contents
Ø BackgroundØ UpdatesinFY16
Ø Country-levelØ Program-level
Ø ProposedAc+vi+esforFY17andbeyondØ Country-levelØ Program-level
Ø Nextsteps
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ProposedFutureAcUviUes–PAWPFramework
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Ø Scopeofwork:Supportac+vi+esthatfallwithinthePAWPframework
Ø Principles:Ø Relevancetotheprepara+onand/orimplementa+onof(I)NDCØ Commitmenttothedevelopment/implementa+onofcarbon
pricingØ Well-targetedscopethataddressescri+calanaly+cal/modeling
gapsanddemonstratesaddi+onalityØ Process
Ø Integratedapproachforfundingaddi+onalac+vi+es(PMRNotePA142016-1)
Ø ICPsareinvitedtosubmitproposalusingatemplate(annextoPMRNotePA142016-1)
Ø Atoolisavailabletosupportproposaldevelopment(annextoPMRNotePA142016-2)
Country-levelacUviUes:FY17andbeyond
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Country-levelacUviUes:ProposalTool
I.OverallmiUgaUonstrategyandNDC
UnderstandingthestatusofNDCprepara+onandimplementa+on
Iden+fyingcri+calanaly+cal/modelinggapsandneedsinthe
contextofNDC
II.Levelofcommitmentandsupporttocarbonpricing
Demonstra+ngcountry’scommitmenttocarbonpricing
Iden+fyingcri+calanaly+cal/modelinggapsandneedsfor
carbonpricing
Understandingtheuseofimplicitcarbonpricingpolicies
Iden+fyingcri+calanaly+cal/modelinggapsandneedsfor
implicitcarbonpricing
III.ScopeofworkandaddiUonality
Scopeofwork
Methodologicalframework
Modelingreadinessandneedforcapacitybuilding
Demonstra+ngtheaddi+onalityoftheproposedac+vity
IV.BudgetandUmeline V.Outputs/results
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Ø RaUonale:Ø Complementcountry-levelmodeling,throughinterna+onaldimensions/linkages/
scenarios,andallowmodelcomparisonØ Directusebypolicymakersandnon-modelers,forpolicyanalysis/discussion,
developingconsensusonscenarios,andcapacitybuilding
Ø CharacterisUcsØ Pla7orm(front-end):Web-based,user-friendlysimula+ontool,withflexibilityin
policychoiceandambi+onlevels;Ø Coverage:Global,withallindividualICPs–Modelingofspecificscenariosfor4-5
ICPsisplannedforFY17;Ø Targetpolicies:Explicitandimplicitcarbonpricingpolicies(na+onalpoliciesand
interna+onalcoopera+on),aspartofoverallpolicypackage;Ø Impacts:GHGemissionsacrosssectorsrela+veto(I)NDCandglobaltargets,key
macroeconomicindicators(e.g.GDPgrowth,compe++veness,interna+onaltrade),sectoral/structurechanges,co-benefits,financial/economicimplica+ons;
Ø Underlyingmodel(back-end):Exis+ngIPCC-grade,hybridmodelingframework
Program-levelacUviUes:CarbonPricingSimulaUonTool
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Comparison:proposedCPSTandsimilartoolsCarbonpricing
modeling
Allindividual
ICPs
InternaUonaldimensions
GHGs/sectorsinINDC
ImpactsbeyondGHG
Usebynon-
modelers
Underlyingmodel
GlobalCalculator(UK,WRI)
No No No All Yes Yes Bolom-up
WITCHsimulator(CMCC/FEEM)
Yes No Yes All Yes Yes DynamicOp(IPCC)
LEAP(SEI) No No No All Limited No
Bolom-up(peer-reviewed)
RunGTAP(Purdue) Yes Yes Yes Par+al Yes No CGE(peer-reviewed)
EFFECT(WorldBank/ESMAP)
Limited No No Par+al Limited No Bolom-up
MAGICC(NCARetal)
No No(global)
No All No Yes GCMs/IAMs(IPCC)
EVALUATE(WorldBank,Enerdata)
Yes No Limited Par+al Limited Yes Par+alEq(Peer-reviewed)
ProposedCPST(WorldBank/PMR)
Yes Yes Yes All Yes Yes Hybrid(IPCC)
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Ø ThePAisinvitedtoprovidefeedbackontheproposedac+vi+es(PMRNotePA142016-2)
Ø TheICPsareinvitedtoindicateinterestinreceivingsupportforaddi+onalac+vi+esatcountry-andprogram-levels
Ø ThePMRSecretariatwillrefinethescopeofPAWPbasedonfeedbackandfurtherconsulta+on
Ø ThePMRSecretariatwillreviseandfinalizetheproposaltemplateandtoolforcountry-levelac+vi+es
Ø ThePMRSecretariatwillpresentini+aldesignanddetailedproposaloftheCarbonPricingSimula+onToolatPA15forfeedbackandinput
NextSteps
