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INFORMATION IS KEY
정보가정보가정보가정보가핵심핵심핵심핵심
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 1/ / / // / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
Richard Chatterton, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
26 September 2013
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION
BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE
San Francisco Washington
New York
London
Beijing
NORTH AMERICA (40)EUROPE (90)
Tokyo
Zurich
Munich
Founded in 2004 and acquired by Bloomberg in 2009, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance (BNEF) is the definitive source of insight, data and news on the
transformation of the energy sector
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 2/ / / /
San Francisco Washington
Cape Town
Singapore
Sydney
Sao Paulo
New Delhi
SOUTH AMERICA (5)
AFRICA (30)
Hong Kong
Tokyo
ASIA PACIFIC (35)
INTEGRATED COVERAGE OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF
THE GLOBAL ENERGY SECTOR
POWER
RENEWABLE ENERGY
(Wind, Solar, Bioenergy)
WATER
(Scarcity, Energy consumption,
Corporate risk)
ENERGY SMART
TECHNOLOGY
(Efficiency, Storage, Digital
energy, Advanced transportation)
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 3/ / / /
POWER MARKETS
(Europe, US)
CARBON & REC MARKETS
(EU, US, California, Australia, Global)
NATURAL GAS MARKETS
(Global Supply /Demand, Upstream
economics)
NON-INTERMITTENT
CLEAN ENERGY
(Geothermal, Hydro, Marine, Nuclear, CCS)
WHO WE SERVE: 700+ LEADING PLAYERS
GOVERNMENT & AGENCIES SUPPLY CHAIN &TECHNOLOGY
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 4/ / / /
UTILITIES & ENERGYFINANCE & INVESTMENT
OUR APPROACH TO CARBON MARKETS INSIGHT
SHORT-TERM
(5-10 DAYS)
MEDIUM-TERM
(1-5 YRS)
LONG-TERM
(+5 YEARS)
BUSINESS
UNIT
News
Commodity markets
Timing of supply and demand into Supply and demand
fundamentals
Daily tradingCompliance
Product sales
Investment planning
MARKET
DRIVERS
Risk management
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 5/ / / /
Commodity marketsthe secondary
market
fundamentals
Technicals
Price direction and volatility
Absolute price levelImpact of key market events
DRIVERS
FORECAST
OUTPUT
TOOLS CorrelationsMedium-Term-Model (MTM)
Global Energy & Emissions Model
(GE2M)
BNEF’S MISSION IN KOREA
BNEF aims to support both government and companies through the design,
implementation and eventual operation of the South Korea ETS
블룸버그뉴에너지파이낸스는대한민국탄소배출권거래제도의성공적인
설계, 실행,운영을위해해당정부와기업들을돕는데목적을두고있습니다.
- Policy analysis and critique
- Scenario modelling of policy design optionsDesign
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 6/ / / /
- Scenario modelling of policy design optionsDesign
Implementation
Operation
- Compliance strategy development
- Price forecasting
- Regulatory analysis
- Trading analytics
- News coverage
IT’S ALL ABOUT POLICY 모든모든모든모든것은것은것은것은정책에정책에정책에정책에달렸다달렸다달렸다달렸다
AN EMISSION TRADING SCHEME IS A PURLY A CREATURE OF POLICY SO A COMPREHENSIVE
UNDERSTANDING OF THE POLICY COMPLEX IS VITAL FOR THOSE OPERATING IN AN ETS
배출권배출권배출권배출권거래제는거래제는거래제는거래제는순전한순전한순전한순전한 정책의정책의정책의정책의산물로서산물로서산물로서산물로서관련관련관련관련정책을정책을정책을정책을이해하는이해하는이해하는이해하는것이것이것이것이배출권배출권배출권배출권거래제거래제거래제거래제운영운영운영운영참여자들에게참여자들에게참여자들에게참여자들에게필수필수필수필수
EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETEXPORT INDUSTRIES
ENERGY SECURITYRENEWABLE ENERGY
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 7/ / / /
NUCLEAR POWER
GREEN GROWTH
CREATIVE ECONOMY
POWER SHORTAGES
POWER PRICING REFORMS
RENEWABLE ENERGY
LNG
CARBON TAX
EMISSION TRADING
INFLATION
COMPETITIVENESS
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
UNCERTAINTIES GETTING IN THE WAY 수많은수많은수많은수많은불확실성불확실성불확실성불확실성
UNDERSTANDING THE SIGNIFIANCE OF THE UNKNOWNS IS VITAL FOR POLICYMAKERS
AND COMPANIES ARE LEFT ONLY ABLE TO ANALYSE THE SCENARIOS THAT MAY PLAY OUT
수많은수많은수많은수많은불확실성을불확실성을불확실성을불확실성을이해하는이해하는이해하는이해하는것이것이것이것이관련관련관련관련정책정책정책정책입안자와입안자와입안자와입안자와기업들에게기업들에게기업들에게기업들에게주어진주어진주어진주어진핵심핵심핵심핵심과제과제과제과제
• Cap
‒ Target level and trajectory
• Allocation
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 8/ / / /
• Allocation
‒ Calculation methodology
• Offsets
‒ Eligibility and import limit
• Price containment or volumetric controls
• Restrictions on financial instruments
BASIC OF A COMPLIANCE STRATEGY (1) 제도제도제도제도준수준수준수준수전략전략전략전략 1
THE AIM FOR COMPANIES IS TO MINIMISE OVERALL COMPLIANCE COSTS PROVIDING ALL OF THE
VARIOUS COMPLIANCE OPTIONS AVAILABLE
기업들의기업들의기업들의기업들의목표는목표는목표는목표는다양한다양한다양한다양한제도제도제도제도준수안준수안준수안준수안중에서중에서중에서중에서가장가장가장가장저렴한저렴한저렴한저렴한제도제도제도제도준수안을준수안을준수안을준수안을마련하는데마련하는데마련하는데마련하는데있음있음있음있음
• Allowances
• Offsets
•
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 9/ / / /
• Abatement
‒ Operational
‒ Long-term
Forecasting the carbon price for allowances and offsets
is key to developing a compliance strategy
할당할당할당할당및및및및상쇄에상쇄에상쇄에상쇄에대한대한대한대한탄소탄소탄소탄소가격가격가격가격예측은예측은예측은예측은제도제도제도제도준수준수준수준수전략전략전략전략수립에수립에수립에수립에필요한필요한필요한필요한
핵심핵심핵심핵심요소요소요소요소
BASIC OF A COMPLIANCE STRATEGY (2) 제도제도제도제도준수준수준수준수전략전략전략전략 2
THE EXECUTION PROCESS WILL DIFFER DEPENDING ON THE SIZE AND TYPE OF BUSINESS, BUT
ALL COMPANIES WILL NEED TO FORECAST THEIR LIABILIY AND PARTICIPATE IN THE MARKET
실행실행실행실행프로세스는프로세스는프로세스는프로세스는비즈니스의비즈니스의비즈니스의비즈니스의사이즈와사이즈와사이즈와사이즈와 종류에종류에종류에종류에따라따라따라따라다름다름다름다름. 그러나그러나그러나그러나모든모든모든모든관련관련관련관련기업들은기업들은기업들은기업들은 그들의그들의그들의그들의책임책임책임책임범위를범위를범위를범위를정확히정확히정확히정확히이해하고이해하고이해하고이해하고시장에시장에시장에시장에참여참여참여참여해야해야해야해야.
• ‘Market horizon’
‒ How far into the future is considered when taking economic decisions
•
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 10/ / / /
‒
• Cost pass through
• Investment planning
• Hedging
• Speculation
SK ETS ISSUES: SMALL CONCENTRATED MARKET
대한민국대한민국대한민국대한민국배출권배출권배출권배출권거래제의거래제의거래제의거래제의이슈이슈이슈이슈 : 작고작고작고작고집중된집중된집중된집중된마켓마켓마켓마켓
Company 2012 emissions
(Mt/yr) % of total
KEPCO 215 38%
POSCO 89 16%
Hyundai 34 6%
A HANDFUL OF LARGE COMPANIES ACCOUNT FOR THREE QUARTERS OF SK ETS COVERAGE
몇몇몇몇안안안안되는되는되는되는큰큰큰큰회사들이회사들이회사들이회사들이배출권배출권배출권배출권거래제거래제거래제거래제커버리지의커버리지의커버리지의커버리지의 3분의분의분의분의 1을을을을차지차지차지차지
Cement - 43
Oil refining - 28
Semiconductors - 20
Other - 55
400
500
600
GS Caltex
LG DisplaySamsung Electronics
Other smaller entites
542MtCO2e/yr including indirect emissions
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 11/ / / /
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Greenhouse Gas Inventory & Research Center of Korea.
SK 19 3%
Samsung 19 3%
LG 14 3%
GS 12 2%
Ssangyong 12 2%
S-Oil 8 1%
Lotte 8 1%
Others 136 24%
Total 566 -
Power - 242
Steel - 107
Petrochemical - 47
0
100
200
300
Sector
Korea South East Power
Korea East West Power
Korea Southern Power
Korea Western Power
Korea Midland Power POSCO EnergyKorea District Heating Corp.
POSCO
Hyundai Steel
LG ChemLotte ChemicalSK Global Chemical
Ssangyong Cement
Tong Yang CementLafarge Halla CementHanil Cement
SK EnergyS-OilGS Caltex
Company
SK ETS ISSUES: INDIRECT EMISSIONS
대한민국대한민국대한민국대한민국배출권배출권배출권배출권거래제의거래제의거래제의거래제의이슈이슈이슈이슈 : 간접간접간접간접배출배출배출배출
COVERAGE OF INDIRECT EMISSIONS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY COMPLICATE THE DESIGN OF THE SK ETS
간접간접간접간접배출까지의배출까지의배출까지의배출까지의규제규제규제규제범위범위범위범위포함은포함은포함은포함은배출권배출권배출권배출권거래제거래제거래제거래제설계를설계를설계를설계를복잡하게복잡하게복잡하게복잡하게만들만들만들만들수수수수있있있있음음음음
Volume of total emissions
Indirect emissions from industrial power consumption
Volume of total allowances
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 12/ / / /
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Direct emissions from power generation
Direct emissions from other sectors
Volume of emissions covered by scheme < Volume of allowances created under scheme
Direct emissions from power generation
Direct emissions from other sectors
Power supplied to ETS sectors
SK ETS ISSUES: HIGH COST OF FUEL SWITCHING
대한민국대한민국대한민국대한민국배출권배출권배출권배출권거래제의거래제의거래제의거래제의이슈이슈이슈이슈 : 높은높은높은높은비용의비용의비용의비용의연료연료연료연료전환전환전환전환
FUEL SWITCHING FROM COAL TO GAS IN SOUTH KOREA IS LIKELY TO BE EXPENSIVE
한국한국한국한국시장에서시장에서시장에서시장에서석탄에서석탄에서석탄에서석탄에서가스로의가스로의가스로의가스로의연료연료연료연료전환전환전환전환비용은비용은비용은비용은높을높을높을높을것으로것으로것으로것으로예상예상예상예상
250
300
350
Wind
Coal to gas switching Wind
Coal to gas switching
$/tCO2e
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 13/ / / /
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Wind
Coal to gas switching
$90/t penalty surcharge
Marginal cost to achieve power sector abatement in government's 2020 roadmap
tCO2e abatement
125
145
165
Systemmarginal price
SK ETS ISSUES: SUBSIDISED POWER PRICES
대한민국대한민국대한민국대한민국배출권배출권배출권배출권거래제의거래제의거래제의거래제의이슈이슈이슈이슈 : 원가원가원가원가이하의이하의이하의이하의저렴한저렴한저렴한저렴한전기세전기세전기세전기세
THE GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVELY GIVES A LARGE SUBSIDY TO INDUSTRIAL POWER CONSUMERS
정부가정부가정부가정부가지원하는지원하는지원하는지원하는저렴한저렴한저렴한저렴한산업용산업용산업용산업용전기전기전기전기
KRW/kWh
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 14/ / / /
45
65
85
105
125
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
Residential
Industrial
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
SK ETS ISSUES: INSUFFICIENT OFFSETS
대한민국대한민국대한민국대한민국배출권배출권배출권배출권거래제의거래제의거래제의거래제의이슈이슈이슈이슈 : 부족한부족한부족한부족한상쇄분상쇄분상쇄분상쇄분
IF OFFSETS CAN BE USED FOR UP TO 10% OF COMPLIANCE, TOTAL DEMAND WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
만약만약만약만약상쇄가상쇄가상쇄가상쇄가 규제규제규제규제범위량의범위량의범위량의범위량의 10%까지까지까지까지허용된다면허용된다면허용된다면허용된다면총총총총상쇄상쇄상쇄상쇄수요는수요는수요는수요는상당할상당할상당할상당할것으로것으로것으로것으로예상예상예상예상
$/tCO2e
800
1,000Base case cumulative
offset demand
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 15/ / / /
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
38109
209333
486
66131
196
260
324
388
0
200
400
600
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cumulative remaining demand for abatement after offsets
THE CHALLENGES AHEAD : 앞으로의앞으로의앞으로의앞으로의과제과제과제과제
Low level of cheap operational abatement in the power sector and
industrial abatement costs are not well understood
발전부문에서의저렴한 operational 감축및산업부문에서의감축
비용에대한이해력필요
Indirect emissions coverage and power price regulation
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 16/ / / /
Indirect emissions coverage and power price regulation
간접배출범위및전기세관련법안
Due to commence in only 15 months!!
15개월앞으로다가온제도의본격시행
• 2020년 배출 전망치 대비 30% 감축을 목표로 하는
대한민국 배출권 거래제 도입이 16개월 앞으로
다가왔습니다 . 발전 , 철강 , 화학 , 시멘트 , 정유 ,
반도체 및 디스플레이 부문 의 약 480여 개의 업체가
관리대상으로 포함되어 국가 배출량의 70%를
커 버 할 것 으 로 예 상 되 며 이 에 따 라
관리대상업체들은 감축 목표 달성을 위한 체계적인
준비를 필요로 하고 있습니다. 하지만 현재까지
프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트개요개요개요개요및및및및목적목적목적목적 프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트연구연구연구연구범위범위범위범위
한계저감비용곡선 (MACC)분석
MULTI-CLIENT 프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트소개소개소개소개
40
60
80
100
120
140Y
WindCCGT
Chemicals
CCGT
CCS
Cement
CCGT
CCSCCGT
Wind
Metals
Paper
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 17/ / / /
준비를 필요로 하고 있습니다. 하지만 현재까지
거래제의 핵심적인 부분이 확정되지 않아 거래제가
관리업체에게 미치는 경제적 영향 및 대처 전략에
대한정확한연구가어려운실정입니다.
• 이에 블룸버그 뉴에너지 파이낸스는 Multi-Client
프로젝트를통해온실가스잠재감축량및비용,탄소
가격 전망 등 대한민국 배출권 거래제에 대한
포괄적인 연구를 제공할 것을 목적으로 하고
있 습 니 다 . 특 히 , 대 한 민 국 의 명 확 한
한계저감비용곡선 개발 및 탄소 가격 전망 시나리오
분석에 초점을 맞추고 있으며 이는 관리업체들의
재무리스크 예측 및 감축 목표 이행을 위한 전략
개발에도움이되리라확신합니다.
탄소가격시나리오분석
0
20
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
WindCCGT
WindCCGT
0
10
20
30
40
50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cap scenario 1
Cap scenario 2
Cap scenario 3
Cap scenario 4
Month 1
클라이언트모집완료
Month 2
자료수집
Month 3
모델링
Month 4
보고서작성
Month 4
최종보고
미팅및온라인회의
온실가스감축옵션 분석
발전부문 산업부문 기타부문 국내상쇄분 국제상쇄분
배출권거래제소개
보고용개요
MULTI-CLIENT 프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트세부사항세부사항세부사항세부사항
프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트프로젝트보고서보고서보고서보고서개관개관개관개관 진행진행진행진행일정일정일정일정
예상예상예상예상비용비용비용비용
B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 18/ / / /
작성
Multi-Client프로젝트및
Bloomberg New Energy Finance글로벌탄소서비스 1년구독
• 소요비용: USD 40,000 (USD 16,000 글로벌탄소서비스포함)
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• 문의처:
• Katie Moon, +82 2 3702 1618, [email protected]
• Steve Martin, +65 6231 3691, [email protected]
부록
부문별배출량프로파일 감축비용자료
대한민국배출권 거래제탄소가격시나리오분석
온실가스배출전망치 (BAU) 시나리오분석
신재생에너지성장시나리오분석
한계저감비용곡선 (MACC) 분석
발전부문 산업부문정부의부문별 2020 감축목표비교분석
발전부문 산업부문 기타부문 국내상쇄분 국제상쇄분예상예상예상예상비용비용비용비용
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B-PMR SEOUL MISSION, 26-27 SEPTEMBER 2013 19/ / / /
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MARKETS Renewable Energy
Carbon Markets
THANK YOURichard Chatterton, [email protected]
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