Poland Market Survey Top Lines Report Q2 2013 Empty Pack Survey Report… · Chor z ow Czest ochow a Da br ow a G or ni c z a El bl ag Gdansk Gdynia G liw ice G or z ow W i el kopol

1

ALMARES

Prepared by: ALMARES Institute for Consulting and Market Researchul. Swietokrzyska 31/33a00-049 Warszawa, Poland

Poland Market SurveyTop Lines Report

Empty Discarded Pack Collection April 2013

Conducted on behalf: British American TobaccoImperial Tobacco GroupJapan Tobacco InternationalPhilip Morris International

2

ALMARES Survey Objectives

• Provide an indication on the incidence of non-domestic or illicit cigarettes Tax paid and non tax paid cigarettes from other countries

Counterfeit cigarettes

• Gain information related to non-domestic or illicit cigarettes byCompanies

Regions and Cities

Brand families

Market variants

3

ALMARES Survey Methodology

• Empty Discarded Pack (EDP) collectionRandom collection from streets and public binsAny brand and market variant Total 70 cities (40 largest cities and 30 smaller towns)Target main sample: 17,000 packsCity sample quotas proportional to populationFieldwork conducted - 4.04.-26.04.2013

• LimitationsHomes and workplaces are not coveredNo information on counterfeit incidence of non-participating companies’ products

• CautionThe survey is designed to focus on trends rather than incidence at a single point in time

4

ALMARES Sampling Plan

Big cities:

Wrocław (5,3%), Wałbrzych (1,0%), Legnica (0,9%), Bydgoszcz (2,9%), Toruń (1,7%), Włocławek (0,9%),Grudziądz (0,8%), Lublin (3,1%), Gorzów Wielkopolski (1,0%), Zielona Góra (1,0%), Łódź (6,7%),Kraków (5,2%), Tarnów (0,8%), Warszawa (15,6%), Radom (2,0%), Płock (1,1%), Opole (1,1%),Rzeszów (1,2%), Białystok (2,6%), Gdańsk (3,7%), Gdynia (2,0%), Katowice (3,0%), Gliwice (1,9%),Zabrze (1,8%), Częstochowa (2,3%), Sosnowiec (2,1%), Bytom (1,7%), Bielsko Biała (1,7%),Ruda Śląska (1,4%), Rybnik (1,3%), Tychy (1,2%), Dąbrowa Górnicza (1,2%), Chorzów (1,1%),Kielce (1,4%), Olsztyn (1,6%), Elbląg (1,1%), Poznań (4,5%), Kalisz (0,9%), Szczecin (3,3%), Koszalin (0,9%).

Small towns:

Bogatynia (0,2%), Złotoryja (0,1%), Krasnystaw (0,2%), Hrubieszów (0,2%), Radzyń Podlaski (0,1%), Międzyrzecz (0,2%), Radomsko (0,4%), Łask (0,2%), Sokołów Podlaski (0,2%), Kozienice (0,2%), Milanówek (0,1%), Strzelce Opolskie (0,2%), Krapkowice (0,2%), Namysłów (0,1%), Jasło (0,3%), Łańcut (0,1%), Przeworsk (0,1%), Nisko (0,1%), Ropczyce (0,1%), Sokółka (0,2%), Jędrzejów (0,1%), Staszów (0,1%), Braniewo (0,2%), Lidzbark Warmiński (0,1%), Olecko (0,1%), Chodzież (0,2%), Szamotuły (0,2%), Złotów (0,2%), Oborniki (0,1%), Gryfice (0,1%).

All data: calculated in cigarettes (single) – weighted by localization populations and smoking incidence

7

ALMARES Sampling Plan

Big cities:


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ALMARES

Domestic84,9%

Non-domestic15,1%

All Packs Collected –Incidence of Non-domestic Packs

Q.2. 2013 N= 346,270


Includes 1,7% of counterfeit of participating companies

12

ALMARES

BELARUS52,2%

OTHERS1,9%

GERMANY1,8%

UNSPECIFIED1,1%

RUSSIA13,4%

UKRAINE13,5%

DUTY FREE16,2%

Domestic84,9%

Non-domestic15,1%

National Sample

List of "Others"Market Variant Share

MOLDOVA 0,6%AUSTRIA 0,2%UNITED KINGDOM 0,2%FRANCE 0,2%SPAIN 0,2%ITALY 0,1%NETHERLANDS 0,1%CZECH REPUBLIC 0,1%SYRIA 0,1%SWITZERLAND 0,1%others (less than 0,1%) 0,2%Total 1,9%

Non-domestic Packs –Share by Market Variant


Q.2. 2013 N = 52,421

20

ALMARESIncidence of Non-domestic Packs

by Nielsen Region


Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 15.1%

15,3%*

28,7%

6,4%

13,9%

4,7%

1,3 %

4,9%

Warsaw24,8%*

Q.2. 2013

Q.2. 2012Warsaw 21.9%Central 23.3%East 39.4%North 6.5%South 11.1%South-East 10.3%South-West 3.6%West 1.3%



21

ALMARESIncidence of Non-domestic

Packs by CityPoland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 15.1%


Largest 40 cities

Small Towns

REGION CITY INCIDENCEEast Braniewo 66,2%

Lidzbark Warmiński 78,5%Sokółka 80,6%Olecko 54,5%Hrubieszów 34,1%Krasnystaw 29,6%Radzyń Podlaski 28,9%

South-East Przeworsk 13,1%Łańcut 18,0%Ropczyce 23,0%Staszów 3,9%Nisko 22,6%Jasło 22,5%Jędrzejów 3,9%

Central Kozienice 15,1%Sokołów Podlaski 17,1%Łask 13,7%Milanówek 11,8%Radomsko 15,0%

West Międzyrzecz 7,9%Chodzież 0,7%Oborniki 2,0%Szamotuły 0,6%Złotów 1,9%

South-West Strzelce Opolskie 1,9%Złotoryja 1,3%Krapkowice 2,7%Bogatynia 3,8%Namysłów 2,6%

North Gryfice 3,8%

Q.2. 2013 N= 346,270

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ALMARES

Belarus

Czech Republic

Germany

Lithuania

Poland

Russia

Slovakia

Ukraine

Dolnoslaskie

Kujawsko-Pomorskie

LubelskieLubuskie Lodzkie

Malopolskie

Mazowieckie

Opolskie

Podkarpackie

Podlaskie

Pomorskie

Slaskie

Swietokrzy skie

Warmiòsko-Mazurskie

Wielkopolskie

ZachodniopomorskieB i a l y s t o k

B i e l s k o - B i a l a

B y d g o s z c z

B y t o m

C h o r z o w

C z e s t o c h o w a

D a b r o w a G o r n i c z a

E l b l a g

G d a n s k

G d y n i a

G l i w i c e

G o r z o w W i e l k o p o l s k i

G r u d z i a d z

K a l i s z

K a t o w i c e

K i e l c e

K o s z a l i n

K r a k o w

L e g n i c a

L o d z

L u b l i n

O l s z t y n

O p o l e

P l o c k

P o z n a n

W a r s z a w a

R a d o m

R u d a S l a s k a

R y b n i k

R z e s z o w

S o s n o w i e c

S z c z e c i n

T a r n o w

T o r u n

T y c h y

W a l b r z y c h

W l o c l a w e k

W r o c l a w

Z a b r z e

Z i e l o n a G o r a

B e d z in

B e lc h a t o w

B ia la P o d la s k a

C h e lm

E lk

G lo g o w

G n ie z n o

I n o w r o c la w

J a w o r z n o

J e le n ia G o r a

K e d z ie r z y n - K o z le

K o n in

K u t n o

L e g io n o w o

L e s z n o

L o m z a

L u b in

M ie le c

M y s lo w ic e

N o w y S a c z

O s t r o le k a

O s t r o w W ie lk o p o ls k i

O s t r o w ie c S w ie t o k r z y s k i

P a b ia n ic e

P ie k a r y S la s k ie

P ila

P io t r k o w T r y b u n a ls k i

P r u s z k o w

P r z e m y s l

P u la w y

R a c ib o r z

R a d o m s k o

S ie d lc e

S ie m ia n o w ic e S la s k ie

S k a r z y s k o - K a m ie n n a

S t a lo w a W o la

S t a r a c h o w ic e

S t a r g a r d S z c z e c in s k i

S t a r o g a r d G d a n s k i

S t u p s k

S u w a lk i

S w id n ic a

S w ie t o c h lo w ic e

T a r n o b r z e g

T a r n o w s k ie G o r y

T c z e w

T o m a s z o w M a z o w ie c k i

W o d z is la w S la s k i

Z a m o s c

Z a w ie r c ie

Z g ie r z

Z o r y

C h o d z ie z

H r u b ie s z o w

J a s lo

K o z ie n ic e

K r a s n y s t a w

L a s k

M ie d z y r z e c z

S t r z e lc e O p o ls k ie

B o g a t y n ia

B r a n ie w o

G r y f ic e

J e d r z e jo w

K r a p k o w ic e

L a n c u t

L id z b a r k W a r m in s k i

M ila n o w e k

N a m y s lo w

N is k o

O b o r n ik i

O le c k o

P r z e w o r s k

R a d z y n P o d la s k i

R o p c z y c e

S o k o lk a

S o k o lo w P o d la s k i

S t a s z o w

S z a m o t u ly

Z lo t o r y ja

Z lo t o w

7.9%

4.5%

8.5%

22.8%30.5%

8.7%

23.2%

21.5%

7,2%

49.4%

0.3%

10.2%

1.7%

59.0%

1.7%

4.0%

Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship

24.8%

>30%>15% 2%

23

ALMARES

(*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw

Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship

Q.2. 2013 N= 346,270


Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013

WARSAW 21,90% 24,70% 20,60% 24,8%

VoivodshipsDOLNOSLASKIE 3,9% 5,5% 4,3% 7,9%KUJAWSKO-POMORSKIE 10,9% 7,2% 7,0% 8,5%LODZKIE 22,6% 24,0% 26,9% 22,8%LUBELSKIE 26,4% 28,1% 19,6% 30,5%LUBUSKIE 3,9% 6,9% 1,4% 4,5%MALOPOLSKIE 5,8% 10,8% 7,8% 8,7%MAZOWIECKIE 22,4% 24,3% 20,5% 23,2%OPOLSKIE 2,3% 3,6% 1,8% 7,2%PODKARPACKIE 31,3% 26,9% 43,3% 21,5%PODLASKIE 52,2% 35,6% 38,1% 49,4%POMORSKIE 3,7% 2,6% 3,7% 0,3%SLASKIE 11,1% 12,0% 9,9% 10,2%SWIETOKRZYSKIE 2,5% 5,1% 5,6% 1,7%WARMINSKO-MAZURSKIE 42,7% 32,3% 26,8% 59,0%WIELKOPOLSKIE 0,4% 0,6% 0,8% 1,7%ZACHODNIOPOMORKSKIE 3,7% 2,3% 3,6% 4,0%Total Poland 14,5% 14,5% 13,2% 15,1%

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ALMARES

>30%>15% 2%

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ALMARES

Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Comparison of Results in Large Cities Vs. Results in Smaller Towns

15.1% 14.9% 19.7%

84.9% 85.1% 80.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

70 cities (40 largestcities + 30 smaller

towns)

Largest 40 cities 30 smaller towns

Domestic

Non-domestic


95,2% out of total 100% sample

4,8% out of total 100% sample

Q.2. 2013 N= 346,270

26

ALMARES

Belarus

Czech Republic

Germany

Lithuania

Poland

Russia

Slovakia

Ukraine

Dolnoslaskie

Kujawsko-Pomorskie

LubelskieLubuskie Lodzkie

Malopolskie

Mazowieckie

Opolskie

Podkarpackie

Podlaskie

Pomorskie

Slaskie

Swietokrzy skie

Warmiòsko-Mazurskie

Wielkopolskie

ZachodniopomorskieB i a l y s t o k

B i e l s k o - B i a l a

B y d g o s z c z

B y t o m

C h o r z o w

C z e s t o c h o w a

D a b r o w a G o r n i c z a

E l b l a g

G d a n s k

G d y n i a

G l i w i c e

G o r z o w W i e l k o p o l s k i

G r u d z i a d z

K a l i s z

K a t o w i c e

K i e l c e

K o s z a l i n

K r a k o w

L e g n i c a

L o d z

L u b l i n

O l s z t y n

O p o l e

P l o c k

P o z n a n

W a r s z a w a

R a d o m

R u d a S l a s k a

R y b n i k

R z e s z o w

S o s n o w i e c

S z c z e c i n

T a r n o w

T o r u n

T y c h y

W a l b r z y c h

W l o c l a w e k

W r o c l a w

Z a b r z e

Z i e l o n a G o r a

B e d z in

B e lc h a t o w

B ia la P o d la s k a

C h e lm

E lk

G lo g o w

G n ie z n o

I n o w r o c la w

J a w o r z n o

J e le n ia G o r a

K e d z ie r z y n - K o z le

K o n in

K u t n o

L e g io n o w o

L e s z n o

L o m z a

L u b in

M ie le c

M y s lo w ic e

N o w y S a c z

O s t r o le k a

O s t r o w W ie lk o p o ls k i

O s t r o w ie c S w ie t o k r z y s k i

P a b ia n ic e

P ie k a r y S la s k ie

P ila

P io t r k o w T r y b u n a ls k i

P r u s z k o w

P r z e m y s l

P u la w y

R a c ib o r z

R a d o m s k o

S ie d lc e

S ie m ia n o w ic e S la s k ie

S k a r z y s k o - K a m ie n n a

S t a lo w a W o la

S t a r a c h o w ic e

S t a r g a r d S z c z e c in s k i

S t a r o g a r d G d a n s k i

S t u p s k

S u w a lk i

S w id n ic a

S w ie t o c h lo w ic e

T a r n o b r z e g

T a r n o w s k ie G o r y

T c z e w

T o m a s z o w M a z o w ie c k i

W o d z is la w S la s k i

Z a m o s c

Z a w ie r c ie

Z g ie r z

Z o r y

C h o d z ie z

H r u b ie s z o w

J a s lo

K o z ie n ic e

K r a s n y s t a w

L a s k

M ie d z y r z e c z

S t r z e lc e O p o ls k ie

B o g a t y n ia

B r a n ie w o

G r y f ic e

J e d r z e jo w

K r a p k o w ic e

L a n c u t

L id z b a r k W a r m in s k i

M ila n o w e k

N a m y s lo w

N is k o

O b o r n ik i

O le c k o

P r z e w o r s k

R a d z y n P o d la s k i

R o p c z y c e

S o k o lk a

S o k o lo w P o d la s k i

S t a s z o w

S z a m o t u ly

Z lo t o r y ja

Z lo t o w

0.6%

0.2%

0.2%

2.3%4.4%

2.7%

3.0%

8.5%

0.6%

0.0%

0.0%

1.5%

0.6%

0.5%

0.5%

0.2%

CF Incidence by Voivodship

>30%>15% 2%

Documents

Poland Market Survey Top Lines Report Q2 2013 Empty Pack Survey Report… · Chor z ow Czest ochow a Da br ow a G or ni c z a El bl ag Gdansk Gdynia G liw ice G or z ow W i el kopol