50
1 POI Conference April 2012

POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    2

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

1

POI Conference April 2012

Page 2: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

2

POI Conference April 2012

Agenda: Intro to PepsiCo

Why focus on Trade Spend?

Our Journey

Highlight Advanced Analytics that has brought us here

Establishing a BIS Trade CoE & Deliverables to-date

Futuristic Thoughts

Page 3: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

3

A Global Powerhouse

22

$66

Page 4: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

4

LARGE MUSCULAR BRANDS

$250mm - $1B brands 22 $1B+ brands

Page 5: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

5

Some of our favorite products . . .

Page 6: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

6

INCREDIBLE REACH

Operate over 100K routes

Over 1 billion outlets served

$300mm retail sales every day

Page 7: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

7

7

PepsiCo Highly Leverages DSD & Warehouse Go To Market Delivery Capabilities

DSD

Store Plant

Rural Bin

Distribution Center Store

Warehouse

Store

Direct To Store

RTL Store

Retailer Warehouse

Plant

Page 8: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

8

Why focus on Trade Spend? Trade Promotion is the #1 marketing expense

On average, CG firms allocate almost 10% of total revenue to

trade promotion.

• Depending on the category, this number can be as high as 30%

• Often, on the P&L, trade promotion is second to COGS in size

• Trade as a percent of Sales is GROWING!

Source: Cognizant proprietary research on

top 100 CG firms, 2011.

8 PepsiCo is no Exception

Page 9: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

9

Increasing power of

mega-retailers

Competition from

low-cost private

labels & its

Proliferation

Market Saturation

& Product

Commoditization

Difficulty in enabling

meaningful innovation &

penetration of new

markets

Socioeconomics

Conditions

Why Focus on Trade Optimization ? The Manufacturer Dollar is Divided

Pricing Sensitivities in an

inflationary downturn

Shift in consumer-

marketing

Promising

Acquisition

Shift from

Volume to Margin ‘Make every penny work harder’

Where to Spend?

How to Maximize ROI of Spend?

Trade promotion is the largest portion of CPG manufacturers’ marketing budgets, and will continue to be into the future. However, retailers are demanding more and better

promotions, and manufacturers are fighting private label growth and brand loyalty erosion.

Page 10: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

10

Strategic Planning for Future Growth of PepsiCo

35 senior executives in the GTM space across PepsiCo to evaluate ‘What information is needed to

allow PEP to compete in the future?’

Six areas of focus emerged:

10

Leadership is Asking for Better

Return on Dollars Spent

Page 11: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

11

Changing CPG Priorities and Landscape

Tomorrow Today

• Trade Spend viewed as a ‘Cost of doing

business’

• Investments based on history

(last year’s calendar)

• Unable to measure ROI of each deal with

confidence

• Unable to course correct during a specific

promotion

• Retailer leverage determines final deal; we

lack the facts to counter

• Key retailers’ & competitors’ promotion

analytic capabilities exceed PEP’s

• Shopper/in-store marketing not integrated

w/ trade spend

Internal and External forces are pushing Marketing and Sales Operations to

take new approaches to the Trade

TPO is a HUGE strategic PEP wide opportunity

• Strategic tool to drive growth

• Invest based on confidence in

future results through analytics

• Know ROI reasonably well on every

deal before execution

• Course correct an “in flight” with

agility

• PEP leverage increases via

superior facts, resulting in

increased collaboration/win-win

• PEP promotion analytics provide

competitive advantage

• Integrated, shopper-focused spend

optimization

Page 12: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

12 12

Trade Spend can be a Strategic Platform for Growth

Analyze

performance

of past events

“Do-Learn-

Apply” TPM

Process

Event

accounting

and funds flow

Key Characteristics

Transaction &

accounting focus

Rear-View mirror

perspective

Sell-in level data

Basic planning

tools

OPERATIONAL

View Trade Promotion Management and Trade Promotion Optimization as

a strategic platform, not a set of tactically silo’d applications

ANALYTICAL

Key Characteristics:

Highly distributed

user community

Real-time planning

with sophisticated

analytic forecasting

approach

Shape and manage

demand

Win-win collaboration

Flexible and dynamic

platform

Advanced

“What-If”

Event

Scenarios

(Category)

Optimal

use of

marketing

and trade

funds

Plan future

events for best

performance

Advanced

Analytics &

Decision

Support

The TPM and TPO business process expectations, needs and solution landscape

have been evolving from operational/tactical to analytical/performance

VALUE

Basic “What-If”

Event

Scenarios

(Non Portfolio)

Page 13: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

13

How Can Analytics be Helpful?

Today

Desired

future

state

13

“The ability to determine not only actual promotional lift, but also the cost of that lift

and impact on trading partner and consumer relations is the ultimate goal of most

CPG companies.” AMR Research

Page 14: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

14

Deanna Herges

Director Business

Information Solutions

Trade CoE

The PepsiCo BIS Trade CoE Team

Page 15: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

15

2007-2008 Executive Future

Data Needs

Assessment

2008-2011 • 4 Advanced Analytics

• 2 TPO POCs

• 1 Extended Pilot

• Looking to Expand and Leverage

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Beyond

It’s Important • Business focus

• Tools and data support

• Process leadership

• Analytics expertise

2011 Formed Trade CoE

“What is World Class?”

Internal & External Assessment

• Business Process

• TPM/TPO Tools

• Analytics Capabilities

• Data

Internal Whitepapers

Trade CoE Timeline 6 Areas

Highlighted Optimize Spend

Prioritized

2008 Division & Field Excitement &

Need Identified

What’s the business

case?

What does it look like?

Strategic approach

Requirements

& Priorities

Page 16: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

16

2008-2011 • 4 Advanced Analytics

• 2 TPO POCs

• 1 Extended Pilot

• Looking to Expand and Leverage

Share some specifics

Page 17: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

17

PepsiCo Advanced Analytics and Trade CoE Team

Business Information Solutions Trade CoE & Analytics Team: A specialized team comprised of innovators, statisticians, business

analysts focused on “white space” business issues.

Backgrounds include experience across CPG, Finance, Retail,

Syndicated Data and Technology

Analytics Capabilities:

Forecasting

Optimization

Simulation

Segmentation

Clustering

Social Analytics

Predictive Analytics / Foresights

Tools & Skills:

Statistical Modeling/BI Visualization/Multiple Tools Used

Page 18: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

18

PepsiCo Advanced Analytics and Trade CoE Team

Post Event Insights:

• Lift Analysis

• Promotion Efficiency / Incremental Dollars Analysis

• Pull Forward Inventory

Promotion Simulation:

• Two Short Term Pilots

• One Long Term Pilot

Other Recent Engagements:

• Social Analytics for Marketing Insights

• Multi-Cultural Product Assortment by Store Cluster

• Geo-Spatial Derived Sales Opportunities

Page 19: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

19 20 April 2012 19

Post Event Insights

Approach and Framework

Page 20: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

20 20 April 2012 20

Post Event Analytics

• Business Challenge: Can we help PepsiCo understand promotion effectiveness to improve future results?

• Business Value:

• Provide guidance for pricing and promotion strategies to improve trade efficiencies.

• Insights to drive new strategic Pricing/Promotion Strategies

• Positively impact performance at 8 retailers/60 markets with insights from event level up

• Analytic Services Provided

• Business consulting for best practices

• Lift analysis

• Financial impacts

• Category cannibalization

• Cluster Analysis

• Guiding Principles

• Shipment and Retail data integration for ROI

• Lowest Available Granularity - Event level detail

• Reusable approach

High Level Approach

Event Sub Group 1

Event Sub Group 2

Event Sub Group N

Which Event Groups

provide highest

efficiency for each trade

dollar (ROI)

FLNA/Retailer?

Which event attributes

provide the greatest lifts

individually?

Which event attributes

provide the greatest lifts

when executed

simultaneously?

What are critical price

threshold and

boundaries for each

Event Group to optimize

profit/volume?

Cross event group

and sub-group

analytics

Within event group

and sub-group

analytics

Which Event Groups

maximize ROI to retailer

or to FLNA?

Which promoted product

groups generate the

maximum profit and

share gains?

Which event types work

best in specific

geographies or retail

accounts?

Explain root cause for

outliers (high/low

performance) events?

Event Sub Group 3

Event Sub Group 4

Event Group 1

Event Group 2

Event Group N

Event Group 3

Event Group 4

Aggregate events with

similar attributes: (TPR

%, price point, display,

feature, f&d, multiples,

etc.)

Generate event sub-

groups by areas of focus:

channel, account, region,

Market, price zone and

by PPG

High Level Approach

Event Sub Group 1

Event Sub Group 2

Event Sub Group N

Which Event Groups

provide highest

efficiency for each trade

dollar (ROI)

FLNA/Retailer?

Which event attributes

provide the greatest lifts

individually?

Which event attributes

provide the greatest lifts

when executed

simultaneously?

What are critical price

threshold and

boundaries for each

Event Group to optimize

profit/volume?

Cross event group

and sub-group

analytics

Within event group

and sub-group

analytics

Which Event Groups

maximize ROI to retailer

or to FLNA?

Which promoted product

groups generate the

maximum profit and

share gains?

Which event types work

best in specific

geographies or retail

accounts?

Explain root cause for

outliers (high/low

performance) events?

Event Sub Group 3

Event Sub Group 4

Event Group 1

Event Group 2

Event Group N

Event Group 3

Event Group 4

Aggregate events with

similar attributes: (TPR

%, price point, display,

feature, f&d, multiples,

etc.)

Generate event sub-

groups by areas of focus:

channel, account, region,

Market, price zone and

by PPG

Post Event Insights

Page 21: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

21 20 April 2012 21

• 2.5 Years of Historical Data

• Seven Retailers

• 60+ Markets

• More than 30,000 promotion events

• Proprietary Sales Baselines

• Custom Data Integration Methods

• Proprietary Method for Disaggregation of Weekly Retail Sales to Day

• Data

• Shipments (UPC Level)

• Internal Financials

• Retail Sales

• Retail Causals

• Multiple Sources of Master Data

Post Event Analytics Scope

Key Information Required to Generate New Insights

Page 22: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

22 20 April 2012 22

Rationalized Business Questions to Ensure Value Added Insight Generation

Event Sub Group 1

Event Sub Group 2

Event Sub Group N

Which Event Groups

provide highest

efficiency for each trade

dollar (ROI) per

Retailer?

Which event attributes

provide the greatest lifts

individually?

Which event attributes

provide the greatest lifts

when executed

simultaneously?

What are critical price

threshold and

boundaries for each

Event Group to optimize

profit/volume?

Cross event group

and sub-group

analytics

Within event group

and sub-group

analytics

Which Event Groups

maximize ROI to retailer

or to PEP?

Which promoted product

groups generate the

maximum profit and

share gains?

Which event types work

best in specific

geographies or retail

accounts?

Explain root cause for

outliers (high/low

performance) events?

Event Sub Group 3

Event Sub Group 4

Event Group 1

Event Group 2

Event Group N

Event Group 3

Event Group 4

Aggregate events with

similar attributes: (TPR

%, price point, display,

feature, f&d, multiples,

etc.)

Generate event sub-

groups by areas of focus:

channel, account, region,

Market, price zone and

by PPG

Solution Approach For Insights Generation

Page 23: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

23 20 April 2012 23

Provide Monthly Customized and Actionable Insights

Post Event Analytics Platform Overview

•Data Loading

• UPC Matching

•Store/RMA

Matching

•Hierarchies

•Data

Alignment

•Data

Enhancement

Historical

Promo Data

Shipments /

Financials Post-Event

Data Repository

3rd Party Data

(Retail Sales,

Causals,

Master Data)

Data Integration

Statistical

Engine

Custom

Insights

Analytics Layer

Integrate core trade promotion

information ito support continuous

promotion insights

Solution Architecture

Page 24: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

24 20 April 2012 24

Post Event Insights

Lift Analysis

Page 25: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

25 20 April 2012 25

Incremental Dollars By

Retailer and Product

• Aggregated Events

Provide Macro

Insights

• Explains which

products are

performing best in

which geographies

• Heat Map provides

easy view into

effects

Retailer 1 Retailer 2 Retailer 3

Product 1

Product 2

Product 3

Product 4

.

.

Product A

.

.

.

Product B

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Product C

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.

.

.

Product N

Event Lift by Account and Product

Tell Me Which Products I Should Promote More of the Time and With Whom

Page 26: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

26 20 April 2012 26

Pro

du

ct 1

Pro

du

ct 2

Pro

du

ct 3

Pro

du

ct 4

Pro

du

ct 5

. . . . . . Pro

du

ct N

Size1

Size 2

Size 3

Size 4

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Size A

.

.

.

Size N

Incremental Dollars By

Product and Size

• Promotion response

varies by product

and package size

• Heat Map Allows

Quick Visualization

Event Lift by Product and Size

Tell Me Which Products In My Portfolio Perform the Best/Worst When I Promote Them

Page 27: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

27 20 April 2012 27

Product 1

Product 2

Product 3

Product 4

.

Product A

.

.

.

Product B

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Product N

Incremental

Dollars By %

Discount

• Promotion

response

varies by

depth of

discount

• Heat Map

Allows

Quick

Visualization

Event Lift by Product and % Discount

Tell Me Which Products In My Portfolio Perform the Best/Worst By Depth of Discount

Page 28: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

28 20 April 2012 28

Pro

du

ct 1

Pro

du

ct 2

Pro

du

ct 3

Pro

du

ct 4

Pro

du

ct 5

. Pro

du

ct N

Retailer 1 Incremental Lift By:

• Varies by

Product

• Varies by

combination of

Tactics

• Varies by

Retailer

Lift by Retailer, Product and Tactic

Tell Me Which Tactics Work Best With Which Products

Page 29: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

29 20 April 2012 29

Post Event Insights

Sample Outputs

Financial Impact Analytics

Page 30: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

30

Ma

rke

t 1

Ma

rke

t 2

Ma

rke

t 3

Ma

rke

t 4

Ma

rke

t 5

Ma

rke

t 6

. . . Ma

rke

t 1

0

Ma

rke

t 1

1

. . Ma

rke

t N

20 April 2012 30

Product 1

Product 2

Product 3

Product 4

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Product N

Costs per Incremental

Dollar By Product and

Market

• Promotion

effectiveness and

ROI varies

significantly by

Retailer and

Promoted Product

• Leveraging a Cost

Per Incremental

Dollar efficiency

metric

Cost Per Incremental Dollar by RMA and Product

Tell Me Which Products Are Maximizing My Returns and ROI When Promoted

High Cost Low Cost

Page 31: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

31 20 April 2012 31

Distribution of Promotions by Efficiency

Product 1

Product 2

Product 3

Product 4

Product 5

Product 6

Product 7

Product 8

Product 9

Product 10

Product 11

Distribution of

Promotions by Cost per

Incremental Dollar

• Bubble Position

Reflects Promotion

Efficiency

• Bubble Size

Reflects Number of

Promotion Events

Increasing Cost Per Incremental Dollar

Tell Me If I Am Promoting My Highest Efficiency Products Often Enough

Page 32: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

32 20 April 2012 32

Pull Forward Inventory

Scenario

Page 33: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

33

Load In

Sell-Through

Pull Forward

Inventory

Shipments

Sales

Legend

Overship Case

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Event

When shipments

are more then the

sell-through of the

promotion, the

Pull Forward

Inventory is sold

through after the

event.

Inventory that

Was pulled

forward

Undership Case

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Event

When shipments

are less then the

sell-through of the

promotion, the

base inventory is

drawn down and in

some stores may

lead to presence

on-shelf.

Reduced

Sales

Ideally, shipments for a promotion load in and

sell through without pulling forward inventory

from the following non-promotion period.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Event

Load-In Sell

Through

Optimal Case

Pull Forward Inventory

Tell Me If My Shipments Are Closely Aligned to Retail Sales

Page 34: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

34 20 April 2012 34

By aligning shipments and consumption for the

timeframe during and immediately after each

event, the opportunity cost for each event and

market was quantified.

Potential savings are modified for marketing

considerations such as keeping the display full

and promotions in the following week.

Q. What is the cost when excess product is shipped during a promotion event, only to have that product

sold after the event has ended?

Pull Forward Inventory Example

Actual Optimal Potential

Improvement

Shipped 540 393

Sold 393 393

Pull Forward 143 27%

Promotion

Allowance

Rate

$ .10 $ .10

Promotion

Allowance

Amount

$54 $39.30 $14.70

The Post Event Analytics Platform brings together promotion event data, product

shipment data, and store consumption data to measure and identify trade spend

efficiency opportunities previously unknown.

Sales

Shipments

EXAMPLE : MEMORIAL DAY PROMOTION

80% of Excess Load-In

came in the last week.

Half of the Excess Inventory

was depleted in the week

after the event.

Incre

asin

g V

olu

me

Page 35: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

35 20 April 2012 35

Trade Optimization Pilot

Programs

Page 36: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

36 20 April 2012 36

Pilot Scope

Pilot 1 Scope

• 14 Month Deployment

• Two Large Retailers, All RMAs

• Two Beverage Categories

Pilot 2 Scope

• 14 Month Deployment

• Two Large Retailers, All RMAs

• Two Food Categories

Page 37: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

37 20 April 2012 37

Pilot Goals

Strategic Goals:

• Generate an immediate improvement in overall trade spend efficiency for two PepsiCo divisions.

• Help to manage trade spending budgets by evaluating individual promotions in the context of an overall plan.

• Evaluate tradeoffs in strategic decision making.

• Enhance Category Captain relationship with retailers by helping to shape overall strategy for category planning (including competitor)

• Improve understanding of consumer response to promotion events

• Generate "consumption" forecasts at the Category / Segment / SKU level

• Quantify ROI of the solution to the extent possible (specific examples of success)

• Understand integration and impact to internal business processes

Page 38: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

38

$819k

$922k

52,898 72,504

$199k

$281k

$358k$346k

PPG Sales PPG Incr Units Trade Spend Contribution

Margin

Do

llars

/ U

nit

s (

000)

+32.1%

B2G1 Free 2 / $10

-3.3%

+12.5%

Trade Simulation Pilot Example 1

Which is better for my business?

A ‘Buy 2 Get 1 Free’ deal or a Buy 2 for $10 deal?

Page 39: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

39

$339k

$392k

9,551 18,649 $41k

$68k

$190k $198k

PPG Sales PPG Incr Units Trade Spend Contribution

Margin

Do

llars

/ U

nit

s (

000)

+95.2%

$6.99 $.599

+15.7% +4.4%

Trade Simulation Pilot Example 2

Which is better for my business?

Drop my price to $6.99 or $5.99?

Page 40: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

40

2011 Formed Trade CoE

“What is World Class?”

Internal & External Assessment

• Business Process

• TPM/TPO Tools

• Analytics Capabilities

• Data

Internal Whitepapers

Begin the Trade CoE

The PepsiCo Trade CoE Journey began in

2011 in response to economic conditions

and a long term goal to increase return of

trade spend investment and increasing

revenue.

Page 41: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

41

Leading-class trade promotion capabilities use a closed-loop methodology enabled by top-down

governance, aligned organization structure, business and people performance metrics, and

TFM/TPO/BI technologies.

World Class Trade Solution Capabilities

Plan

Execute

Analyze Create Promotion

Strategy

Develop Targets

and Allocate Funds

Create Funds

Plan/Events

‘Sell-in’/Negotiate

Funds Plan

Authorize Payments/

Resolve Deductions

Track Actuals against

Plan

Evaluate Funds

Effectiveness

Shopper/Category

Analytics

Governance & Control

Roles, Resp., Accountabilities and Organizational Structure

Business & People Performance Metrics

TPM, TPO, and BI Tools & Technology

Core

Processes

Governance & Control

• C-Suite sponsorship, establishment of trade spend objectives, and proactive

performance monitoring

• Activation of Global Trade Council

• Launch of Trade Promotion Effectiveness and Capability Improvement Programs

• Cross-functional involvement and frequent reviews across Brand, HQ Sales, Field

Sales, Supply Chain, and Finance

Closed-Loop Trade Promotion Core Processes

• Integrated Closed Loop Processes to maximize returns

• Business process re-engineering to drive cross-organization efficiencies and

elimination of redundant and non-value added activities

• Implementation of new decision frameworks and activities focused on trade

productivity and enhance both Manufacturer and Retailer performance

Organization Alignment

• Redefinition of roles, responsibilities, and accountabilities streamline work-flows and

decrease cost

• Single language for promotion planning and evaluation to deliver organizational

consistency

Roles, Resp., Accountabilities and Organizational Structure

• Standard trade promotion metrics with differentiated targets by channel, account, and

category/product

• People performance metrics, ‘Management by Objectives’ plans, and incentives in

line with trade promotion objective and not contradictory

TFM, TPO, and BI Tools & Technology

• Centralized management and rationalization of trade systems

• Best practices in trade analytics

• Focus on core data assets to activate trade programs

Page 42: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

42

Internal PepsiCo Trade Related

White Papers

Dipu, Lakshmi

Carla, Jennifer

Prashant

Andrew, Angela,

Olga, Ranjani

Overall Coordination: Deanna

Page 43: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

43

1 Transaction Tracking & Management – Spending Control

• Stand Alone or internally developed planning & execution tools

• Sporadic Trade Spend Analysis via subjective evaluation of past promotions

v

43

Business Process Findings - Varying Maturity Levels

2 Automated TPM • Process standardization with packaged TPM software

• Limited post promotion analysis (using BI Tools)

v

3

Closed Loop Analytical TPM • Process Standardization with TPM Software & Analytics

• Exception reporting fed by retail execution monitoring

• Systematic post-promotion analysis

• Sales/Marketing coordination: 1 version of the truth

v

4

Transformational Trade Promotion Optimization • Exception reporting fed by retail execution monitoring

• Planning with predictive analytics

• Modeling of “best” promotions to achieve targets

• Simulations/”what if” decision support

• Accurate baseline & promotional volume forecasting

• Detailed post-event measurements of KPIs/shoppers impacts

• Fact Based collaboration with retailers

v

Page 44: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

44

Strategic Actions to Move Through Maturity Process

Master & Consistently Perform the Basics

Define a Common Language

Define Roles & Responsibilities

Create & Use Templates & Accelerators

1

Automate Manual Tasks

Standardize & move to closed loop processes

Migrate from functional teams to process teams

Align incentives & rewards to ROI

2

Grow End to End Subject Matters

Perform Strategic Customer Segmentation

Migrate towards Performance Based Resource Pools

Account Profit Planning

3

Become a Process Centered Organization

Design new event types to drive consumer buying behavior

Plan events at the store / consumer level

Develop retailer & consumer Algorithms

4

Spending

Control

ROI Based

Planning

Predictive

Planning

Performance

Driven

TPO

Page 45: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

45

45

Trade Promotion Maturity

Organization

Process

System

Analytics

• Lift Tables

• Baseline Volume

• Event Structures

• Packaged TPM Software

• Exception Reporting

• Account Planning Tools

• Performance Monitoring

• Common Processes

• Closed Loop Processes

• Incentives & Training

aligned to Profit / ROI

• Process Teams replace

Functional Teams

• Event Spend

• Event Detail

• Homegrown Systems

&Spreadsheets

• Collaborative

Processes

• Funds Allocation

• Event Planning

• Event Monitoring

• Defined Roles &

Responsibilities

• Collaboration

• Strategic Alignment

• Common Language

• Account Cost Drivers

• Historical Customer

Performance Data

• Closed Loop

• Integrated TPM System

• Strategic Customer

• Segmentation

• Performance Based

• Resource Pools

• Account Profit

• Planning

• Grow End-To-End

Subject Matter Experts

• Model “Best” Promotions

• What-If Simulation

• Detailed Post-Event KPI

Measurement

• Transformational TPO

• Campaign Management

• Consumer Level Data

Warehouse

• Design new event types to

drive consumer buying

behavior

• Plan events at the store /

consumer level

• Develop retailer &

consumer Algorithms

• Process Centered

Organization

1. Spending Control 2. ROI Based Planning 3. Predictive Planning 4. Performance Driven TPO

Crawl Walk Run

Reacting Anticipating Orchestrating

Market Focused Cost/Productivity Focused Demand Driven Value Driven

Business Sustainment Business Growth

Collaborating

Page 46: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

46

TPO Maturity as a function of Data Sources

Data Sources Type Basic TPM Advanced TPM Basic TPO Advanced TPO

Master Data Internal

Promotion/Event Data Internal

Financial Data Internal

Shipments Internal

Shipments External

Point of Sale (POS) External

Store Audit Data External

Syndicated Data External

TLOG Data External

Shopper/Loyalty Card Data External

Panel Data External

Market Track External

TDLinx External

Nielsen Spectra External

Demographic Data External

Weather External

Macroeconomic Indicators External

Social Data (e.g. Twitter) External

Page 47: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

47

TPO Data challenges and learnings

Buck stops at data!

Data integration and

harmonization is hard

People who know business and

systems are rare

Time!

Data architects should be involved from

the start

Aligning multiple data teams / streams

is complex and time intensive

Data design should be flexible

Page 48: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

48

Tool Selection Criteria & Weighting Factors As Suggested By PepsiCo Trade CoE

Functional Strategic

TCO Non-

Functional & Technical

• Trade Promotion

Management - Planning,

Execution, Settlement etc.

• Trade Promotion

Optimization - Forecasting,

Cannibalization etc.

• Analytics - Post Event

Analytics etc.

• Financial Health

• Product Roadmap

• Geographic Scope

• Installed Base

• Market Responsiveness

• SW Licensing &

Maintenance

• Internal Resource

• Implementation (Vendor

Consulting)

• Infrastructure (HW)

• Degree of Customization

• Configurability

• Hosted or On-Premise

• Usability

• Performance

• Middleware Integration

• End User Training by Vendor

• Security & Permissions

• Installation Simplicity

• Support Model

• Technical Architecture

• Enabling the Mobile Worker

15

10

20

15

35

30

40

35

Weighting Factor

Ranges (%)

Page 49: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

49

Six Step Tools Evaluation Process As Suggested By PepsiCo Trade CoE

1 •Rate Tools by Criteria Under Each Rating Factor Group 2 •Convey Results in Meaningful Manner to Analyze

3 •Repeat Rating for Other Criteria and Aggregate 4 •Choose & Apply Appropriate Weighting Factors

Revised Rating Obtained Using SUMPRODUCT Function in Excel

5 •Present Tool Selection Outcome

Recommend Tool C as 1st Choice & Tool B as

Back Up for Organization’s Trade Solution

6 •Provide Final Recommendation For Tool

Page 50: POI Conference April 2012 · analytic forecasting approach Shape and manage demand Win-win collaboration Flexible and dynamic platform Advanced “What-If” Event Scenarios Optimal

50

1. Trade is complex, changing and getting in front of it is hard!

2. One size does NOT fit all

3. Short-term wins are BIG

4. Shipments do not equal Consumption

5. Getting a credible forecast is a challenge

6. Don’t under estimate the time for data integration (acquire,

cleanse, harmonize, transform, aggregate, etc.)

7. You must have leadership from the top

PepsiCo Trade Journey - Key Findings