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Pockets of Rural Poverty:
Seeing Beyond the Census Data
Josh King, Land of Sky Regional Council
Karyl Fuller, Isothermal Planning &
Development Commission
Introduction
O Isothermal Planning & Development Commission (IPDC)
O Council of Government representing four counties in North Carolina
O They are Cleveland, McDowell, Polk and Rutherford. All but Cleveland are within ARC
O IPDC provides a variety of services to their counties including:
O Workforce Development
O Area Agency on Aging
O Grant Services
O Planning Services including staffing Isothermal RPO
Introduction, Cont.
O Disproportionate development patterns
leaving extreme income disparity
O Fast and furious second home growth in the
2000’s
O Declining manufacturing employment
O Better ways to display and track locally
available knowledge for future planners
O Environmental Justice Compliance tool
Environmental Justice Guides
O Income
O Areas where the Median Household Income
Less than 50% of County’s HUD Average
O Minority
O Areas where %Minority is 10 points higher
than County Average or Greater than 50%
Map
Problem
O Data Available
O Largely Census
O Economic Data is No Longer Collected during the Regular Census
O Rather, American Community Survey
O Advantages
O ”New “ Data Available Every Year
O Disadvantages
O Depending on Geography, Only Data Available is 5-Year Averages
O Sample Size is not 1 in 6 household like the long form. Each year, ACS attempts to sample 1 in 35-40 households. Even over 5 years, sample 1-12.5 households
Problem O Size of Geography has
expanded O In 2000—Block Groups
represented 600 people
O Since 2010— Block Groups represented 1,500 people. Census Tracts represented average of 4,000.
O Because of ACS sampling, the data is not reliable at BG level
O Census Tracts provide a more reliable sample
Problem, Cont. O Census Tracts are
larger O The smallest tract in
4-county region is ~1000 acres in McDowell County. The largest is ~100,000 acres in Rutherford County
O Variation is hidden with the larger area and population size. Fewer Census Tract meet the threshold
Kingstown Example
O Town Facts
O 89.1% Black
O 2010 Median Household Income: $31,111
O Total Population: 681
O Census Tract Facts
O 16.9% Black
O 2010 MHHI: $45,250
O Total Population: 6,855
Available Data
O IPDC provides Grant Services to all four
counties including Housing, Urgent Repair,
Infrastructure and Economic Development.
We also provide Weatherization Services to
all 4 counties.
O Most of the Grants require Income
Verification, usually low to moderate income
O Weatherization has income limits, as well.
Limitations/Issues
O Grant recipients’ addresses are posted.
O However, Weatherization is not.
O Brought in Grant data from 2005-
O Grant recipients usually have liens on their house for an extended period.
O Small pool of applicants, but have parcel IDs
O Weatherization recipients
O Currently, only 1 Year of data used
O Used Addresses and Geo-coded them Using Google Maps
O Solution-To use Spatial Analysis tools to both obscure the individual addresses and highlight the clusters
Process
O Grant Recipients
O All data was converted to point data
O Compiled/Attributed with Source
O Weatherization Data
O Addresses Only
O Geo-coded Using Google data
O Any data with Accuracy rating less than 8
O Screened, Updated
O Re-Geocoded
Process, Cont.
O Weatherization & Grant Services were
combined
O Using Spatial Analyst, various cell sizes and
search radius were explored.
O Cell size of 2500 ft and Search radius of 2
miles seemed sufficient
Results
Final Map
Comparison
Results Map
Overlay Map Results Map
Final Thoughts
O Related Products—Highlights for Marketing/Advertising
O Race—Use 2010 Block Group data
O Bring in More Weatherization data
O Technique is scalable to varying degrees
O Continuous search for more income qualified data
O Aging data can also be used to test against Census Age data
