Upload
meadow-robbin
View
221
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Plenary Session PresentationPlenary Session PresentationSouthern New England Economic Outlook--Summit 2002Southern New England Economic Outlook--Summit 2002
Foxwoods Resort CasinoFoxwoods Resort Casino
Mashantucket, CTMashantucket, CTMay 10, 2002May 10, 2002
Gary Ciminero, CFAGary Ciminero, CFAActing DirectorActing Director
Rhode Island House Policy OfficeRhode Island House Policy Office
New England Economic Prospects:New England Economic Prospects:Minimal Recession Ended—Moderate Recovery in StoreMinimal Recession Ended—Moderate Recovery in Store
What will the economy look like nationally and regionally?What will the economy look like nationally and regionally?
Recession Ending in New EnglandRecession Ending in New England
RI Historical Perspectives:RI Historical Perspectives:Jobs Lost During “Great Recession” Jobs Lost During “Great Recession” Regained During 10-Year RecoveryRegained During 10-Year Recovery
RI Jobs in Expansion: After Losing 54K Jobs in "Great Recession" … 66.7K Payroll Jobs Added in Subsequent 123 Months of Recovery thru 03/02: Trade Jobs Fully Recovered
… but Manufacturing Still Falling Dramatically
-54.0
-1.4
-8.2
-5.1
-19.5
-1.9
66.7
-23.1
8.0
5.8
47.9
21.0
3.0
4.1
0.9
-18.9
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Total Non-Farm Payroll Jobs (Thous.)
Manufacturing
Finance, Ins., & RE
Construction
Services
Total Trade
Trans./Pub. Util.
Governments
Peak-Trough (6/89-12/91) Trough-Now (12/91-3/02)
RI Current Conditions:RI Current Conditions:Monthly Rhode Island Job Trends Monthly Rhode Island Job Trends
January, 1985--March, 2002January, 1985--March, 2002
Mild Recession Impact on RI Jobs--Feb & Mar '02 Jobs Hit New Record LevelAfter Stalling Since July '01--and Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.2%
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
Jan-
85
Jul-
85
Jan-
86
Jul-
86
Jan-
87
Jul-
87
Jan-
88
Jul-
88
Jan-
89
Jul-
89
Jan-
90
Jul-
90
Jan-
91
Jul-
91
Jan-
92
Jul-
92
Jan-
93
Jul-
93
Jan-
94
Jul-
94
Jan-
95
Jul-
95
Jan-
96
Jul-
96
Jan-
97
Jul-
97
Jan-
98
Jul-
98
Jan-
99
Jul-
99
Jan-
00
Jul-
00
Jan-
01
Jul-
01
Jan-
02
BA
RS
: N
on
farm
Em
plo
ymen
t (M
on
thly
, SA
)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
LIN
E:
Un
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e, %
RI Current Labor Market Conditions: Sector RI Current Labor Market Conditions: Sector Jobs Growth: 1Q-’02 vs. 1Q-’01Jobs Growth: 1Q-’02 vs. 1Q-’01
Through March 2002, Jobs up just 1,000 or 0.1% vs. 2001 PeriodFIRE, Services, and Have Biggest Percentage Gains
Construction and TPU Tick Down but Manufacturing begins to Plunging at Near Record Rates
0.1
-6.9
3.5
-1.1
2.3
0.8
-1.4
0.1
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Total Nonfarm Jobs (%-ch.)
Manufacturing
Finance, Ins., & RE
Construction
Services
Total Trade
Trans./Pub. Util.
Governments
RI Current Conditions: Housing MarketRI Current Conditions: Housing Market
RI Housing Market through Late-2001Home Resales Stay Near 1998 Highs (line)
asResale Prices Race Even Higher to New All-Time Record (bars)
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
19
88
Q1
19
88
Q3
19
89
Q1
19
89
Q3
19
90
Q1
19
90
Q3
19
91
Q1
19
91
Q3
19
92
Q1
19
92
Q3
19
93
Q1
19
93
Q3
19
94
Q1
19
94
Q3
19
95
Q1
19
95
Q3
19
96
Q1
19
96
Q3
19
97
Q1
19
97
Q3
19
98
Q1
19
98
Q3
19
99
Q1
19
99
Q3
20
00
Q1
20
00
Q3
20
01
Q1
20
01
Q3
BA
R: S
ing
le-F
am
. M
ed
ian
Re
sale
Pri
ces,
($
10
00
)
0
5
10
15
20
LIN
E: S
ing
le-F
am
. Ho
me
Re
sale
s (1
00
0's
,SA
AR
)
RI Current Conditions: Auto MarketRI Current Conditions: Auto Market
Strong RI Auto Market Spikes Up on 0% Financing in Oct '01-/Jan '02. Then Loses Momentum in Feb '02
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Jan
-90
Jan
-91
Jan
-92
Jan
-93
Jan
-94
Jan
-95
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
To
tal
Ne
w V
eh
icle
Re
gis
tra
tio
ns
,(R
L P
olk
Da
ta,
SA
Mo
nth
ly)
MA Historical Perspectives:MA Historical Perspectives:Jobs Lost During “Great Recession” Jobs Lost During “Great Recession” Regained During 10-Year RecoveryRegained During 10-Year Recovery
Massachusetts Jobs Well into Expansion Mode:564K Payroll Jobs Added in Subsequent 10-Year Recovery thru 12/01
Services Take Over; Trade Just Recovering; Mfg. Still Falling, FIRE Up Just 11K
521
-64
34
67
321
97
19
47
-364
-103
-21
-65
-20
-112
-13
-31
-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Total Jobs at MA Employers
Manufacturing
Finance, Ins., & RE
Contract Construction
Services
Total Trade
Trans./Pub. Util.
Governments
Trough-now (12/91-12/01 Peak-Trough (10/88-12/91
MA Current Conditions:MA Current Conditions:Monthly Rhode Island Job Trends Monthly Rhode Island Job Trends
January, 1985--March, 2002January, 1985--March, 2002
MA Jobs Down 1.9% and Counting--Recession Began in 1/01 and Still Underway?Payroll Jobs Off 63,400 thru 3/02--Unemployment Rate of 4.4% at 6-Year High
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
Jan-
85Ju
l-85
Jan-
86Ju
l-86
Jan-
87Ju
l-87
Jan-
88Ju
l-88
Jan-
89Ju
l-89
Jan-
90Ju
l-90
Jan-
91Ju
l-91
Jan-
92Ju
l-92
Jan-
93Ju
l-93
Jan-
94Ju
l-94
Jan-
95Ju
l-95
Jan-
96Ju
l-96
Jan-
97Ju
l-97
Jan-
98Ju
l-98
Jan-
99Ju
l-99
Jan-
00Ju
l-00
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02
BA
RS
: N
on
farm
Em
plo
ymen
t (M
on
thly
, SA
)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Lin
e: U
nem
plo
ymen
t R
ate
MA Current Labor Market Conditions: MA Current Labor Market Conditions: Sector Jobs in Decline: 01/01-03/02Sector Jobs in Decline: 01/01-03/02
From Job Peak of 1/01 thru 3/02: Employment fell 63,400Manufacturing had Biggest Decline, Followed by Services.
All Other Sectors Flat/Down Except for Construction
-63.4
-31.7
0.4
6.2
-24.7
-5.5
-7.9
-0.3
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Total Jobs at MA Employers
Manufacturing
Finance, Ins., & RE
Contract Construction
Services
Total Trade
Trans./Pub. Util.
Governments
MA Current Conditions: Housing MarketMA Current Conditions: Housing Market
Very Strong MA Housing Market through 4Q/00Home Resales Stay Near Record High (line)
asResale Prices Stay Near Recond Levels (bars)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1987
Q3
1988
Q1
1988
Q3
1989
Q1
1989
Q3
1990
Q1
1990
Q3
1991
Q1
1991
Q3
1992
Q1
1992
Q3
1993
Q1
1993
Q3
1994
Q1
1994
Q3
1995
Q1
1995
Q3
1996
Q1
1996
Q3
1997
Q1
1997
Q3
1998
Q1
1998
Q3
1999
Q1
1999
Q3
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
BA
R:
Sin
gle
-Fam
. M
edia
n R
esal
e P
rice
s,
($10
00)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
LIN
E:
Sin
gle
-Fam
. Ho
me
Res
ales
(1
000'
s,S
AA
R)
Current Conditions: Housing Price Current Conditions: Housing Price Comparisons—MA, RI, CTComparisons—MA, RI, CT
Median Existing Home Prices in New England 4Q/2001RI Soars to New Highs but Still Competitive vs MA & CT
MA Prices, 2nd Highest in US, Peak out at $343K after Ticking Down in 3Q CT Prices Hit New All-Time Highs
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1
Sin
gle-
Fam
. M
edia
n R
esal
e P
rices
, (N
atl.
Ass
oc. o
f Rea
ltors
, $10
00)
Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island
Current Conditions: Sector Income Current Conditions: Sector Income Comparisons—MA & RIComparisons—MA & RI
Average Annual Income Through 4Q-2001 ($thous.)MA Jobs Pay More than RI except for Governmental
RI: Government & Finance-Related Jobs Lead in Average Pay MA: Finance-Related and Manfacturing Lead in Average Pay
$49.2 $47.1$42.0
$39.6 $39.5$35.2
$31.6
$24.1
$82.9
$41.8
$53.0$47.8
$55.0
$46.2 $45.4
$30.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
FIRE Governments Cont Const Trans publ Ut Manufacturing Total Nonfarm Services Total Trade
Rhode Island Massachusetts
Current Conditions: Personal Income Current Conditions: Personal Income Comparisons—New England Comparisons—New England
Latest Release Personal Income--4Q01MA Ranks Last at +0.5% … RI +2.7%, Ranks 2nd in New England
($ Change vs. 4Q'00)
1.7
0.9
0.7
3.3
0.5
0.8
2.7
2.6
0 1 2 3 4
United States
New England Region
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Vermont
Current Conditions: Residence Current Conditions: Residence Adjustment—New England Adjustment—New England
Three New England States Rank Among Highest as "Bedroom States"Based on Percent of Net Personal Income Earned Out-of-State
NH Residents Earn 9% Out-of-State, Second only to MD NationallyCT & RI, at 4.8% & 3.9% Rank 4th & 5th
4.8
0.9
-1.9
9.0
3.9
0.7
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
CT
ME
MA
NH
RI
VT
Residence Adjustment as % of Personal Income: 4Q01
Current Conditions: Transfer PaymentsCurrent Conditions: Transfer Payments—New England —New England
Residents of ME and RI Rank 7th & 11th in US on Proportion of Income from Retirement, Welfare, & Other Transfers
13.3
12.4
11.2
12.0
10.6
16.6
14.8
17.2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
United States
New England Region
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Vermont
Total Transfer Payments (excl. UI) as % of Personal Income: 4Q01
RI Consensus Revenue Estimating RI Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference—Adopted Economic Conference—Adopted Economic
Outlook—RI and MAOutlook—RI and MAU.S. Rhode Island Massachusetts
RecessionStart March, 2001 August, 2001 February, 2001Finish February, 2002November, 2001 April, 2002Severity % Change -1.1% -0.20% -1.70%Severity Annualized % change -1.1 -0.8% -1.40%Probability 90% 90% 90%
Recovery PhaseStart March, 2002 December, 2001 May, 2002Finish October, 2003 October, 2003 September, 2003Severity % Change +3.0% +2.9% +2.1%Severity Annualized % change 1.75% +1.4% +1.7%Probability 70% 70% 70%
Rhode Island Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference6-May-02
RICREC—Adopted Economic Outlook— RI RICREC—Adopted Economic Outlook— RI and MAand MA
Rhode Island Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference:Adopted Forecast
0.61.0
1.5
-0.8
1.3 1.2
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Non
farm
Job
s G
row
th
RI Actual Annual Growth MA Actual Annual Growth Adopted RI Forecast Adopted MA Forecast
RICREC—Adopted Economic Outlook— RI RICREC—Adopted Economic Outlook— RI Sector Forecast: 2002-03Sector Forecast: 2002-03
Job Forecast by Sector: Forecast for 2002 and 2003
-4.9
4.4
0.1
1.8
1.3
0.1
0.3
1.5
1.1
2.9
2.6
2.0
2.1
0.1
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Manufacturing
Finance, Ins., & RE
Construction
Services
Total Trade
Trans./Pub. Util.
Governments
2002 Forecast 2003 Forecast
Rhode Island Withholdings Taxes:Rhode Island Withholdings Taxes:Decline for 1st Time Since the Last Decline for 1st Time Since the Last
RecessionRecession
National Reces s ion Hits RI Withholdings Bas e:2001 Barely Up … 1Q'02 in 1s t Decline Since Las t Reces s ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002Q
1
Perc
en
tag
e A
nn
ual
Gro
wth
Rate
Yearl
y t
hru
'01.
1Q
'02 v
s.1
Q '01
Rhode Island Taxpayer MigrationRhode Island Taxpayer Migration
RI Net Tax Return In-Migration: Number and AGI
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Net
Nu
mb
er
of
In-m
igra
nt
Tax R
etu
rns
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
$ M
illio
ns
Net Number of In-Migrant Returns Net In-Migrant AGI
Rhode Island Demographics: 1990-00Rhode Island Demographics: 1990-00
Massachusetts Demographics:Massachusetts Demographics:1990-001990-00
Table DP-1 Profile of General Demographic Characteristics for Massachusetts: Change 1990-2000
NUMBER/Percentage CHANGE NUMBER/Percentage CHANGESubject/Year 1990 2000 Number Percent 1990 2000 Number Percent
Chg Chg Total population 6,016,425 6,349,097 332,672 5.5 HISPANIC OR LATINO AND RACE SEX AND AGE Total population 100.0% 100.0% 332,672 5.5Male 48.0% 48.2% 170,071 5.9 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 4.8 6.8 141,180 49.1Female 52.0 51.8 162,601 5.2 Mexican 0.2 0.4 9,585 75.5
Puerto MAcan 2.5 3.1 48,014 31.8Under 5 years 6.9 6.3 -15,205 -3.7 Cuban 0.1 0.1 761 9.45 to 9 years 6.3 6.8 52,826 14.0 Other Hispanic or Latino 1.9 3.1 82,820 71.710 to 14 years 5.8 6.8 83,154 23.9 Not Hispanic or Latino 95.2 93.2 191,492 3.315 to 19 years 6.8 6.5 5,803 1.4 White alone 87.8 81.9 -81,933 -1.620 to 24 years 8.5 6.4 -109,360 -21.325 to 34 years 18.3 14.6 -174,573 -15.9 RELATIONSHIP35 to 44 years 15.3 16.7 144,539 15.7 Total population……………………………… 100.0% 100.0% 332,672 5.545 to 54 years 10.0 13.8 273,258 45.5 In households 96.4 96.5 325,763 5.655 to 59 years 4.2 4.9 56,544 22.3 Householder 37.3 38.5 196,470 8.760 to 64 years 4.3 3.7 -25,192 -9.6 Spouse 19.5 18.9 27,642 2.465 to 74 years 7.6 6.7 -32,051 -7.0 Child 30.6 29.0 4,156 0.275 to 84 years 4.4 5.0 48,446 18.1 Own child under 18 years 20.9 21.8 123,760 9.885 years and over 1.5 1.8 24,483 26.6 Other relatives 4.0 4.5 39,997 16.4
Under 18 years 1.1 1.4 20,270 30.1Median age (years) 34 37 3 9.0 Nonrelatives 5.0 5.6 57,498 19.1
UnmarMAed partner 1.3 2.1 52,091 66.118 years and over 77.5% 76.4% 185,683 4.0 In group quarters 3.6 3.5 6,909 3.2 Male 36.5 36.1 94,417 4.3 Institutionalized population 1.4 1.4 4,108 4.9 Female 41.0 40.3 91,266 3.7 Noninstitutionalized population 2.2 2.1 2,801 2.221 years and over 72.5 72.3 226,713 5.262 years and over 16.2 15.7 20,001 2.0 HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE65 years and over 13.6 13.5 40,878 5.0 Total households 2,247,110 2,443,580 196,470 8.7 Male 5.2 5.4 29,265 9.4 Family households (families) 67.4% 64.5% 61,950 4.1 Female 8.4 8.2 11,613 2.3 With own children under 18 years 30.7 30.6 59,761 8.7
MarMAed-couple family 52.1 49.0 27,642 2.4RACE With own children under 18 years 23.3 22.4 24,153 4.6One race 100.0% 97.7% 186,667 3.1 Female householder, no husband present 12.1 11.9 19,021 7.0 White 89.8 84.5 -38,088 -0.7 With own children under 18 years 6.3 6.7 21,639 15.2 Black or African American 5.0 5.4 43,324 14.4 Nonfamily households 32.6 35.5 134,520 18.4 American Indian and Alaska Native 0.2 0.2 2,774 22.7 Householder living alone 25.8 28.0 103,571 17.8 Asian 2.4 3.8 95,987 67.5 Householder 65 years and over 10.8 10.5 12,803 5.3 Asian Indian 0.3 0.7 24,082 122.1 Chinese 0.9 1.3 30,600 56.9 Households with individuals under 18 years 32.6 32.9 71,500 9.7 Filipino 0.1 0.1 2,061 33.2 Households with individuals 65 years and over 25.6 24.7 28,673 5.0 Japanese 0.1 0.2 1,755 20.0 Korean 0.2 0.3 5,625 47.9 Average household size 2.58 2.51 -0.07 -2.7 Vietnamese 0.3 0.5 18,513 119.8 Average family size 3.15 3.11 -0.04 -1.3 Other Asian 1… 0.4 0.6 13,351 50.5 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander - - 1,234 98.3 HOUSING OCCUPANCY Native Hawaiian - - 57 11.3 Total housing units 2,472,711 2,621,989 149,278 6.0 Guamanian or Chamorro - - 165 45.3 Occupied housing units 90.9% 93.2% 196,470 8.7 Samoan - - 272 133.3 Vacant housing units 9.1 6.8 -47,192 -20.9 Other Pacific Islander 2… - - 740 406.6 For seasonal, recreational, or occasional use 3.7 3.6 3,404 3.8 Some other race 2.6 3.7 81,436 52.4Two or more races (NA) 2.3 (NA) (NA) Homeowner vacancy rate (percent) 1.7 0.7 -1.0 (X)
Rental vacancy rate (percent) 6.9 3.5 -3.4 (X)Race alone or in combination with one or more other races: 3 HOUSING TENUREWhite (NA) 86.2% (NA) (NA) Occupied housing units 2,247,110 2,621,989 196,470 100.0Black or African American (NA) 6.3 (NA) (NA) Owner-occupied housing units 59.3% 61.7% 176,559 89.9American Indian and Alaska Native (NA) 0.6 (NA) (NA) Renter-occupied housing units 40.7 38.3 19,911 10.1Asian (NA) 4.2 (NA) (NA)Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (NA) 0.1 (NA) (NA) Average household size of owner-occupied units 2.82 0.70 -0.10 (X)Some other race (NA) 5.1 (NA) (NA) Average household size of renter-occupied units 2.24 3.50 -0.07 (X)