Upload
others
View
8
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
A hands-on guide for modeling designing and leading your
companys next radical innovation
Playbook
FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND Innovation
2
Playbook Development TeamTamara CarletonŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶgtĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉŽĂƌĚgtgthŶŝƚĞĚ^ƚĂƚĞƐ
William CockayneampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚΘŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ^ƚĂŶĨŽƌĚhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJhŶŝƚĞĚ^ƚĂƚĞƐ
ŶƫͲƵƐƐŝdĂŚǀĂŶĂŝŶĞŶgtĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶgtĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJampŝŶůĂŶĚ
SponsorsdĞŬĞƐƚŚĞampŝŶŶŝƐŚampƵŶĚŝŶŐŐĞŶĐLJĨŽƌdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂŶĚŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶampŝŶůĂŶĚ
gtĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶgtĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJampŝŶůĂŶĚ
art coordinationgtĂƵƌĂDĞůůĂŶĞŶgtĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶgtĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJampŝŶůĂŶĚ
Graphic design and layoutAnna RaikkonenŶŬĂƌĂĞƐŝŐŶampŝŶůĂŶĚ
Research PartnerssĞƐĂĂƌŵĂĂŬŽƌƉŝgtĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶgtĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJampŝŶůĂŶĚ
dƵŝũĂKŝŬĂƌŝŶĞŶgtĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶgtĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJampŝŶůĂŶĚ
^ĂŬƵDćŬŝŶĞŶŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂůDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚdĂŵƉĞƌĞhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJampŝŶůĂŶĚ
WĞŬŬĂĞƌŐŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚŶƐƟƚƵƚĞĂůƚŽhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJampŝŶůĂŶĚ
Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
ΞϮϬϭϯd ĂƌůĞƚŽŶtŽĐŬĂLJŶĞĂŶĚdĂŚǀĂŶĂŝŶĞŶdŚŝƐǁŽƌŬŝƐŵĂĚĞĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞƵŶĚĞƌƚŚĞƚĞƌŵƐŽĨƚŚĞƌĞĂƟǀĞŽŵŵŽŶƐƩƌŝďƵƟŽŶͲEŽŶŽŵŵĞƌĐŝĂůͲ^ŚĂƌĞůŝŬĞϯϬhŶƉŽƌƚĞĚgtŝĐĞŶƐĞ
3
Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
Playbook overviewWelcome to a guide for the strategic manager the person who is responsible for innovationmdash^OL[OLY[OPZTLHUZAumlUKPUN[OLnext market describing the future customer or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets
Benefit to youdŚŝƐ ƉůĂLJŬ ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞƐ ƚǁŽ ĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůƚŽƉŝĐƐͻ ŽǁƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝĚĞĂƚŚĂƚ
ďĞĐŽŵĞƐĂŶĞǁďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƉƌŽĚƵĐƚŽƌƐĞƌǀŝĐĞĂŶĚ
ͻ ŽǁƚŽďƵŝůĚĂŶŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƚŚĂƚƐƵƉƉŽƌƚƐƚŚĞŽŶŐŽŝŶŐĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝĚĞĂƐ
ampŽƌ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƚŽƉŝĐƐ ǁĞ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ŵƵůƟƉůĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĂŶĚ ƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐ ƐƚĞƉͲďLJͲƐƚĞƉŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ ƟƉƐ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ ĐĂƐĞ ƐƚƵĚŝĞƐĂŶĚ ŵŽƌĞ dŚĞ ŵĂƚĞƌŝĂů ŝƐ ĚŝǀŝĚĞĚ ŝŶƚŽŵƵůƟƉůĞĐŚĂƉƚĞƌƐĨŽƌĨĂƐƚĞƌůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐĂŶĚƵƐĞ
Strategic focus tĞ ĨŽĐƵƐ ŽŶ ƌĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ tŚLJƌĂĚŝĐĂů ZĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝƐ ĂďŽƵƚĐŚĂŶŐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŵĂŐŶŝƚƵĚĞŽĨ LJŽƵƌ ĞīŽƌƚĞŝƚŚĞƌŝŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨŚŽǁLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĞƐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ Žƌ ŝŶ ƚĞƌŵƐ ŽĨƚŚĞ ŝŵƉĂĐƚ LJŽƵǁŽƵůĚ ůŝŬĞ ƚŽ ƐĞĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚtĞĂƐƐƵŵĞLJŽƵĂƌĞƐĞƌŝŽƵƐĂďŽƵƚŵĂŬŝŶŐďŝŐĐŚĂŶŐĞƐDŽƐƚĐĂƐĞƐŽĨƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƌĞůLJŽŶĂďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŝŶŶĞǁƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ĂŶĚƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ŝŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚƐĂƌĞŽŌĞŶďŝŐďĞƚƐ
How to use itůů ƚŚĞ ŵĂƚĞƌŝĂů ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƉůĂLJŬŝƐ ĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ƚŽ ďĞ ƉƌĂĐƚŝĐĂů ĂŶĚƐƚƌĂŝŐŚƚĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ƐĞůĨͲŐƵŝĚĞĚůĞĂƌŶĞƌ dŚŽƐĞ ůŽŽŬŝŶŐ ĨŽƌ ƋƵŝĐŬƐŽůƵƚŝŽŶƐĐĂŶƐƚĂƌƚĂŶLJǁŚĞƌĞdŚŽƐĞůŽŽŬŝŶŐ ƚŽ ďƵŝůĚ ĂŶ ŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞĚ ĂŶĚƌĞƉĞĂƚĂďůĞƉƌĂĐƚŝĐĞǁŝůůǁĂŶƚƚŽƐƚĂƌƚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ďĞŐŝŶŶŝŶŐ ƚŽ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ƚŚĞďƌŽĂĚĞƌĨƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬDƵůƟƉůĞƌĞĂĚLJͲƚŽͲƵƐĞƚĞŵƉůĂƚĞƐĂƌĞ
ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚ ĂƐǁŽƌŬƐŚĞĞƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ĐĂŶƵƐĞ ĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJ ƉƌŝŶƚ ŽƵƚ Žƌ ƉĂƐƚĞ ŝŶƚŽLJŽƵƌƉƌĞĨĞƌƌĞĚƐŽŌǁĂƌĞtŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ůĞĂƌŶ ŚĞƌĞǁŝůů ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ
ĐŽĂĐŚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶƐƉŝƌĞ ƚŚŽƐĞ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ LJŽƵĂƐǁĞůůĂƐĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌŽǁŶĞīŽƌƚƐŝŶƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂŶĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
4
Chapter 1 The Foresight FrameworkWe introduce a comprehensive framework [OH[VMMLYZHZ[YJ[YLKHWWYVHJO[VAumlUKthe big idea Chapter 2 How to Start Discover the different types of innovation paths people and industry contexts to help you start in the right place with the right mindset
Chapter 3 PerspectiveThe Context Map Progression Curves and Janus Cones methods broaden your view of the problem space helping you to better anticipate the future
Chapter 4 OpportunityThe Generational Arcs Future User and Futuretelling methods identify your future customers in terms of macro micro and narrative views
Chapter 5 SolutionThe White Spots Paper Mockups and Change Path methods turn your idea into a tangible artifact and plan
Chapter 6 TeamThe Buddy Checks VOICE Stars and YV^KSV]LYZTL[OVKZOLSW`VAumlUKand keep the right people engaged in your pursuit of radical innovation
Chapter 7 VisionThe Vision Statement DARPA Hard Test HUK7H[OAumlUKLYZTL[OVKZZL[[OLYPNO[organizational vision to direct your teamrsquos efforts
AppendixSupporting material includes a list of readings suggested data sources and other related items
Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
TABLE OF CONTENTS9
29
58
91
124
165
200
240
5
PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉїƉĂŐĞϲϭ
ĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĐƐїƉĂŐĞϵϰ
tŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐїƉĂŐĞϭϮϳ
ƵĚĚLJŚĞĐŬƐїƉĂŐĞϭϲϴ
sŝƐŝŽŶ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚїƉĂŐĞϮϬϯ
WƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐїƉĂŐĞϳϬ
ampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌїƉĂŐĞϭϬϯ
WĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐїƉĂŐĞϭϯϲ
sK^ƚĂƌƐїƉĂŐĞϭϳϴ
ZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚїƉĂŐĞϮϭϯ
ĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐїƉĂŐĞϴϭ
ampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐїƉĂŐĞϭϭϰ
ŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƐїƉĂŐĞϭϰϵ
ƌŽǁĚůŽǀĞƌƐїƉĂŐĞϭϴϴ
WĂƚŚĮŶĚĞƌƐїƉĂŐĞϮϯϬ
Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
METHOD SHORTCUTS
6
FUTURE VISION FOR PAPER gtĞĂƌŶŚŽǁŽŶĞŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐĐŽŵƉĂŶLJƌĞƐƚĂƌƚĞĚĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůůLJƵŶĨƌƵŝƞƵůƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĨŽƌŝƚƐĐŽƌĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐїƉĂŐĞϮϰ
10 WORKSHOP LESSONS FROM AN INDUSTRY VETERAN^ĞĞǁŚĂƚǁŽƌŬƐĂŶĚǁŚĂƚĚŽĞƐŶΖƚǁŚĞŶƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐĨŽƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŶŐďŝŐŝĚĞĂƐїƉĂŐĞϱϯ
A SECOND FUTURE FOR UBICOMĂŝŶĂŶŝŶͲĚĞƉƚŚůŽŽŬĂƚƵƉĚĂƟŶŐƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĨŽƌŽŶĞŽĨdĞŬĞƐůĂƌŐĞƐƚĂŶĚŵŽƐƚƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵůƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐїƉĂŐĞϳϴ
HOW YLE DEFINED A NEW FORESIGHT CAPABILITYampŽůůŽǁŽŶĞƚĞĂŵ ƐƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐĂƐƚŚĞLJĚĞƐŝŐŶĂƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚŽƌLJŵŽĚĞůŽĨĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐїƉĂŐĞϭϱϴ
SEEKING VISIONARIES AT DARPAhŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŚŽǁZWĂƩƌĂĐƚƐĂĐĞƌƚĂŝŶƚLJƉĞŽĨƉĞƌƐŽŶĨŽƌƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĂƚĂĨĞĚĞƌĂůĂŐĞŶĐLJїƉĂŐĞϭϳϳ
PROGRAM MANAGERS AT DARPAŝƐĐŽǀĞƌƚŚĞďĂƐŝĐƉƌŽĮůĞĨŽƌĂZWƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌďĞŚŝŶĚƚŚĞĂŐĞŶĐLJ ƐƵŶŝƋƵĞĞƚŚŽƐїƉĂŐĞϭϴϳ
DARPArsquoS LESSONS FOR INDUSTRYgtĞĂƌŶƐĞǀĞŶǁĂLJƐĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐĐĂŶďĞŶĞĮƚĨƌŽŵZW ƐůŽŶŐƚƌĂĐŬƌĞĐŽƌĚĨŽƌƐƵĐĐĞƐƐїƉĂŐĞϭϵϳ
TECHNOLOGY VISIONS AT DARPAZĞǀŝĞǁƚǁŽĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐŽĨďŝŐƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJͲĚƌŝǀĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĂƌĞŚŝŐŚƌŝƐŬĂŶĚŚŝŐŚƌĞǁĂƌĚїƉĂŐĞϮϭϮ
THE HEILMEIER CATECHISM AT DARPAgtĞĂƌŶĂǁĞůůͲŬŶŽǁŶƐĞƚŽĨĐƌŝƚĞƌŝĂƚŚĂƚůĞƚƐLJŽƵƚĞƐƚŝĨLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐǀŝƐŝŽŶŚĂƐƉƌĂĐƟĐĂůĂƉƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶїƉĂŐĞϮϮϳ
THE ORIGINAL VISION OF EPCOTŝƐĐŽǀĞƌƚŚĞƌĞĂůŐƌĂŶĚĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞĨŽƌĂŶŝĚĞĂůŝnjĞĚŵĞƌŝĐĂŶĐŝƚLJĂŶĚŚŽǁŝƚǁĂƐΗZWĂƌĚΗїƉĂŐĞϮϮϴ
Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how various organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning
Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
A variety of case studies
7
Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
How to use the playbookThe playbook adopts two simple schemas to help you follow the material TVYLXPJRS OLAumlYZ[ZJOLTHPZHZL[VMJVSVYLKKV[Z[OH[PKLU[PM`KPMMLYLU[types of content The second schema applies to each methodrsquos presentation
ĞŶĞƌĂůŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ
DĞƚŚŽĚŽǀĞƌǀŝĞǁƟƉƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌŝƚĞŵƐƚŚĂƚƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĂƩĞŶƟŽŶ
ŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĚŝĂŐƌĂŵƐŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐĂŶĚƌĞůĂƚĞĚŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůĨŽƌƐƵŐŐĞƐƚĞĚƌĞŇĞĐƟŽŶ
DĞƚŚŽĚŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌŝƚĞŵƐƚŚĂƚĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞĂĐƟŽŶ
OverviewŶŽǀĞƌǀŝĞǁƉĂŐĞŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐĞƐĞĂĐŚŵĞƚŚŽĚĚĞƐĐƌŝďŝŶŐǁŚLJŝƚŝƐŚĞůƉĨƵůǁŚĞŶƚŽƵƐĞŝƚĂŶĚǁŚĂƚLJŽƵŐĞƚ
61
VU[L_[4HWZJHW[YL[OL[OLTLZ[OH[LTLYNL^OLUKPZJZZPUNJVTWSL_WYVISLTZ
WhEN to use itͻ dŽƉƵƌƐƵĞĂŶĞŶƟƌĞůLJŶĞǁĂƌĞĂŽĨ
researchͻ dŽĮŶĚŐƌŽƵƉĂŐƌĞĞŵĞŶƚŽŶƚŚĞ
ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚĂƐƉĞĐƚƐŽĨĂƉƌŽďůĞŵͻ dŽŐĂŝŶĨĂƐƚďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚĨŽƌĂ
ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌƚŽƉŝĐ
WhY itrsquos helpful
ŽŶƚĞdžƚ DĂƉ ĂĚǀĂŶĐĞƐ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬ ŽĨƚŚĞƵƐƵĂůŝĚĞĂŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶƚŽŽůƐƐƵĐŚĂƐďƌĂŝŶƐƚŽƌŵŝŶŐ ĂŶĚŵŝŶĚͲŵĂƉƉŝŶŐ dŚĞŐŽĂůŽĨďƌĂŝŶƐƚŽƌŵŝŶŐ ŝƐƚŽŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĂƐŵĂŶLJ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĂƐ ƉŽƐƐŝďůĞ ĂŶĚ ŶŽ ĨŽĐƵƐŝƐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚ ŶĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚĂŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉůĞƚƐ LJŽƵ ďĞŐŝŶ ĐŽŶǀĞƌŐŝŶŐ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƚŽƉƚŚĞŵĞƐ Žƌ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ ŽĨ Ă ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌƚŽƉŝĐŽƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƐƉĂĐĞtŚLJ ĞŝŐŚƚ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ ƚŽ Ă ŽŶƚĞdžƚ
DĂƉ zŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ĞŶŽƵŐŚ ƚŽ ĐĂƉƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĞƉƌŽďůĞŵ ƐĐŽŵƉůĞdžŝƚLJ LJĞƚŶŽƚƚŽŽĨĞǁƚŽůŽƐĞƐŝŐŚƚŽĨǁŚĂƚŝƐŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ
Context Maps
What you getzŽƵǁŝůů ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJĞŝŐŚƚĐŽƌĞĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐŽĨLJŽƵƌĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƉƌŽďůĞŵŽƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƐƉĂĐĞ LJ ŬŶŽǁŝŶŐ ƚŚĞƐĞ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐLJŽƵĐĂŶĂƐŬƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚŝŶƚƵƌŶ ƉƌŽŵƉƚ Ă ŵŽƌĞ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĞĚ ƐĞĂƌĐŚĨŽƌƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐDŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ƚŚŝƐŵĞƚŚŽĚŝƐĂŶĞdžĐĞůůĞŶƚ
ŝĐĞͲďƌĞĂŬĞƌĨŽƌĂŶĞǁƚĞĂŵƚŽƐƚĂƌƚƚŚĞŝƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐ ŽŶƚĞdžƚ DĂƉƐĂůƐŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ƌĂƉŝĚ ƌĞŇĞĐƟŽŶĂƚƉƌŽũĞĐƚŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐ
ExampletĞǁĂůŬLJŽƵƚŚƌŽƵŐŚĂŶĂĐƚƵĂůĞdžĂŵƉůĞƵƐŝŶŐƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŚŽǁŝŶŐĂƌĞůĂƚĞĚĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
Instructions^ƚĞƉͲďLJͲƐƚĞƉŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐĂƌĞƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚǁŚŝĐŚĂƌĞƚŚĞŶůŝŶŬĞĚƚŽƚŚĞĞdžĂŵƉůĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
InsightstĞĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŚŽǁƚŽĚƌĂǁŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐĂŶĚŝŵƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚĂůƐŽůŝŶŬĞĚƚŽƚŚĞĞdžĂŵƉůĞ
TipsƟƉƐƉĂŐĞŚŝŐŚůŝŐŚƚƐůĞƐƐŽŶƐƚŚĂƚŽƚŚĞƌƐŚĂǀĞůĞĂƌŶĞĚƵƐŝŶŐƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚŝŶĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶƐ
PhotosZĞĂůƉŚŽƚŽƐǁŝƚŚƐŚŽƌƚĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶƐŚĞůƉƐŚŽǁŚŽǁĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƚĞĂŵƐŚĂǀĞƵƐĞĚƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚ
Template ďůĂŶŬƚĞŵƉůĂƚĞŝƐƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚĨŽƌĞĂĐŚŵĞƚŚŽĚĂƐǁŽƌŬƐŚĞĞƚƐĨŽƌƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŽƌƚĞĂŵƵƐĞ
62
Letrsquos look at an example^ŝƌ WĞƚĞƌ Ăůů ŝƐ ĂŶ ĞŵŝŶĞŶƚ ƌŝƟƐŚƐĐŚŽůĂƌǁŚŽƐƚƵĚŝĞƐƚŚĞŚŝƐƚŽƌLJŽĨƵƌďĂŶƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂŶĚĚĞƐŝŐŶampŽƌƚŚĞyWKϮϬϬϬtŽƌůĚdžŚŝďŝƟŽŶĂůůĂŶĚŚŝƐĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƉƌĞƉĂƌĞĚ ĂŶ ĞdžƚĞŶƐŝǀĞ ƌĞƉŽƌƚ ĐĂůůĞĚhƌďĂŶampƵƚƵƌĞϮϭŝŶǁŚŝĐŚƚŚĞLJŽƵƚůŝŶĞĂŐůŽďĂůĂŐĞŶĚĂĨŽƌϮϭƐƚĐĞŶƚƵƌLJĐŝƟĞƐ ƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ƐƚƵĚĞŶƚ ƚĞĂŵ ƵƐĞĚ
Ăůů Ɛ ƌĞƉŽƌƚ ƚŽ ŐĂŝŶ ƋƵŝĐŬ ďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚĨŽƌ Ă ĐůĂƐƐ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ŵĂũŽƌ ĂƵƚŽŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌĞƌ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƐƉŽŶƐŽƌĞĚ ƚŚĞƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐƉƌŽũĞĐƚǁŝƐŚĞĚƚŽƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŚŽǁ ƉƌĞŵŝƵŵ ƚƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚĂƟŽŶ ǁŽƵůĚĐŚĂŶŐĞŝŶŐůŽďĂůŵĞŐĂĐŝƟĞƐgtĂĐŬŝŶŐŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞŽĨƚŚĞĂƵƚŽŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ
ƚŚĞƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐƵƐĞĚƚŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉĂƐĂĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƵĂů ƐŚŽƌƚŚĂŶĚƚŽŐĞƚƐƚĂƌƚĞĚŽŶƚŚĞŝƌƉƌŽũĞĐƚĂŶĚĂůƐŽƚŽƌĞŵĞŵďĞƌƚŚĞŵĂŝŶƚŚĞŵĞƐŽĨƚŚĞƌĞƉŽƌƚtŝƚŚŽƵƚ ƌĞĂĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƉŽƌƚLJŽƵƌƐĞůĨ
LJŽƵ ĐĂŶ ůŽŽŬ Ăƚ ƚŚĞ ƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐ ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ ĂŶĚ ĂůƐŽ ŬŶŽǁ ƚŚĞ ĞŝŐŚƚ ŬĞLJĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĂůůĨĞůƚĂƌĞŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƚŽĂĨƵƚƵƌĞŝĚĞĂůĐŝƚLJ
WƌŽĚ
ƵĐƟǀ
Ğ
WŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŐƌŽǁƚŚ
ĞŵŽĐƌĂƟnjĂƟŽŶ
ŶǀĞŶƟŽŶ
ůĞĂ
ŶŐƌĞĞŶ
ŚĞ
ĂůƚŚLJΘƐĂĨĞ
ƵůƚƵƌĂůůLJǀŝďƌĂŶƚ
^ŽĐŝĂůůLJĞƋƵŝƚĂďůĞ
ĂƉƉLJůŝǀĞƐ
IDEAL CITY
gt ŵƉŽǁĞƌŝŶŐĐŝƟnjĞŶƐĂƚůŽĐĂůůĞǀĞůƐ gt ^ŽĐŝĂůĐĂƉŝƚĂů
^ŽƵƌĐĞWĞƚĞƌĂůůĂŶĚhůƌŝĐŚWĨĞŝīĞƌ ϮϬϬϬ
hƌďĂŶampƵƚƵƌĞϮϭůŽďĂůŐĞŶĚĂĨŽƌϮϭƐƚĞŶƚƵƌLJŝƟĞƐ
63
Instructions1 Agree on a broad topic or
opportunity area your team wants to pursue You set the scale of topic Very broad topics may ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĞǀĞƌĂůŝƚĞƌĂƟŽŶƐ
2 Draw an outline for a Context Map or use the worksheet template in the playbook
3 Start talking with your team about LJŽƵƌƚŽƉŝĐŶŽƟŶŐĂŶLJƐĂůŝĞŶƚdimensions as they arise Points of intense discussion or even disagreement are good to include in your Context Map
4 EŽƚĞƐŝĚĞƚŽƉŝĐƐĂŶĚĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐaround your Context Map At ƟŵĞƐLJŽƵŵĂLJũƵŵƉƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂƚĂŶŐĞŶƟĂůŽƌĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉdŚĂƚŝƐŐƌĞĂƚĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƟŽŶ
5 ZĞƉĞĂƚƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐƵŶƟůLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵarrives at a map (or set of maps) that captures your problem space ƐĂƟƐĨĂĐƚŽƌŝůLJ
ї^ĞĞƚŚĞĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚĚŝĂŐƌĂŵĨŽƌĂŶannotated example The numbers in ƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞnumbers in the diagram
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚŝĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶĚŝĚLJŽƵƐƉĞŶĚ
ƚŚĞŵŽƐƚƟŵĞĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŶŐͻ tŚŝĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚƚŚĞ
ŐƌĞĂƚĞƐƚŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐͻ tŚŝĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚƚŚĞ
ŐƌĞĂƚĞƐƚŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵĐĂŶƚĂŶƐǁĞƌƚŽĚĂLJ
ͻ ŌĞƌĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŶŐĂƐĂŐƌŽƵƉĚŽLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƚŽƌĞĚƌĂǁƚŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉďĂƐĞĚŽŶǁŚĂƚLJŽƵŚĂǀĞůĞĂƌŶĞĚ
67
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ƌĂǁďŝŐŵĂƉƐƉƌĞĨĞƌĂďůLJŽŶĂ
ǁŚŝƚĞďŽĂƌĚŽƌůĂƌŐĞŇŝƉĐŚĂƌƚƐŽĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞĐĂŶƐĞĞĂŶĚĐŽŵŵĞŶƚŽŶƚŚĞǀĂƌŝŽƵƐĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĞĂƐŝůLJ
ͻ ŽŶƚǁŽƌƌLJĂďŽƵƚŬĞĞƉŝŶŐƚŚĞĞŝŐŚƚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĂƚƚŚĞƐĂŵĞůĞǀĞůdŚĞŵĂŝŶŽďũĞĐƟǀĞŝƐƚŽĐĂƉƚƵƌĞǁŚĂƚŝƐŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚŝŶĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ
ͻ EŽƚĞĂŶLJƌĞůĂƚĞĚƉŽŝŶƚƐĂŶĚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ^ŽŵĞƟŵĞƐƚŚĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĂƌĞƚŚĞŵŽƐƚŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƟŶŐƚŽƌĞǀŝƐŝƚůĂƚĞƌ ǁŚĞŶLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚƐŵŽƌĞĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞƉƌŽďůĞŵƐƉĂĐĞĂŶĚŝƐƐƵĞƐ
ͻ ŽŶƐŝĚĞƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŶŐĂŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉĨƌŽŵĂŶŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƌ ƐǀŝĞǁƐƵĐŚĂƐĂƐƵƉƉůŝĞƌŽƌĞŶĚƵƐĞƌ ƚŽƐĞĞŚŽǁƚŚĞŝƌƚŽƉĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĐŽŵƉĂƌĞƚŽĂŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƚĞĂŵŽƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂůƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ
ͻ zŽƵĐĂŶĂůǁĂLJƐĐƌĞĂƚĞŵŽƌĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƐzŽƵŵĂLJǁĂŶƚƚŽƉĂƵƐĞŵŝĚǁĂLJƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŽŶĞŵĂƉƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂƐĞĐŽŶĚŵĂƉŝŶŽƌĚĞƌŶŽƚƚŽůŽƐĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĐŽŶǀĞƌƐĂƟŽŶŇŽǁ
ͻ ĂŶŐŽƌƉŽƐƚĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚŵĂƉƐŝŶƉƵďůŝĐǀŝĞǁƐƵĐŚĂƐŶĞĂƌLJŽƵƌĚĞƐŬŶƚŚŝƐǁĂLJ LJŽƵĐĂŶŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĐŽŶƟŶƵŽƵƐŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐǁŝƚŚŽƚŚĞƌƐĂƐǁĞůůĂƐĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƌĞŇĞĐƟŽŶĂŶĚŝŶĐƵďĂƟŽŶĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƚŽƉŝĐ
REFLECTIONWhat is the proposed topic Why do you want to pursue it
68
Additional examples
A major consumer electronics company used a ŽŶƚĞdžƚ DĂƉ ƚŽ ƌĞǀŝĞǁ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ ƉŽƌƞŽůŝŽĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌŝŶŐƐŽŵĞŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐŝŶƉƌŝŽƌŝƟĞƐ
An American police force considered how decreasing state funds would impact a range of ĨƵƚƵƌĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŶĞĞĚƐ
ORIGINALS MISSING
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton69
CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet
65
Drawing insights amp implicationsŌĞƌ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐ ĂŶ ŝŶŝƟĂů ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ ƚŚĞ ƐƚƵĚĞŶƚ ƚĞĂŵ ƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚ ƚŚĂƚƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀŝƚLJǁĞƌĞ ŽŶůLJ ƚǁŽ ŵĞĂƐƵƌĞŵĞŶƚƐ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨŵĞŐĂͲĐŝƟĞƐKƚŚĞƌŝŶƚĂŶŐŝďůĞĂŶĚƋƵĂůŝƚĂƟǀĞĂƐƉĞĐƚƐƐƵĐŚĂƐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŚĂƉƉŝŶĞƐƐĂŶĚĐƵůƚƵƌĂůǀŝďƌĂŶĐLJ ĂƌĞĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůƚŽĐŝƚLJĚǁĞůůĞƌƐdŚŝƐŝŶƐŝŐŚƚĐŚĂŶŐĞĚƚŚĞŝƌĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŽĚĂƚĂĐŽůůĞĐƟŽŶĂŶĚƚŚĞLJŶŽǁůŽŽŬĞĚĨŽƌĂďƌŽĂĚĞƌƐĞƚŽĨŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐdŚĞƚĞĂŵĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŽƚĂŬĞƚŚĞŝƌŽŶƚĞdžƚ
DĂƉƐ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ƐƚĞƉ ĨƵƌƚŚĞƌ ĂƐĞĚ ŽŶ ĂĚĞĞƉĞƌůŝƚĞƌĂƚƵƌĞƌĞǀŝĞǁƚŚĞLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚĂ ůŝƐƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĞŝŐŚƚ ƉƌŝŵĂƌLJ ĨĂĐƚŽƌƐ ƚŚĂƚĚĞĮŶĞ Ă ŚĞĂůƚŚLJ ĐŝƚLJ dŚĞLJ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞƐĞĞŝŐŚƚĨĂĐƚŽƌƐĂƐƚŚĞďĂƐĞůŝŶĞĨŽƌĂŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƚŽĂƐƐĞƐƚŚĞƚŽƉŵĞƚƌŽƉŽůŝƚĂŶƌĞŐŝŽŶƐ
ĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚdŚĞLJĐŽůŽƌĐŽĚĞĚĞĂĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŽƌŇŽǁĞƌƉĞƚĂůͿŝŶƚŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ ďĂƐĞĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů ŝŵƉĂĐƚ ŽĨĐŚĂŶŐĞ ĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ŶĞdžƚ ϮϬ LJĞĂƌƐŶ ŽƚŚĞƌǁŽƌĚƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŝƟĞƐ Ăůů ƐŚĂƌĞĚ ƚŚĞƐĂŵĞ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ ďƵƚ ƐŚŽǁĞĚ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĐŽůŽƌĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶƐhƐŝŶŐƐƵďũĞĐƟǀĞƌĂŶŬŝŶŐƐƚŚĞƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐ
ŵĂĚĞĂĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŐƌĞĞŶĨŽƌůŽǁĐŚĂŶŐĞĂŶŽƌĂŶŐĞĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŝŶĚŝĐĂƚĞĚŵŽĚĞƌĂƚĞĐŚĂŶŐĞ ĂŶĚ Ă ƌĞĚ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶ ƐŚŽǁĞĚŚŝŐŚĐŚĂŶŐĞŌĞƌƚŚŝƐĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞƚŚĞƚĞĂŵƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚĂŶŽƚŚĞƌŝŶƐŝŐŚƚŶŽŶĞŽĨƚŚĞŵĞƚƌŽƌĞŐŝŽŶƐŚĂĚ ƚŚĞƐĂŵĞĐŽůŽƌŵĂƉƉŝŶŐ ĨŽƌĐŚĂŶŐĞůůƚŚĞĐŝƟĞƐŚĂĚĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĐŽůŽƌĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶǁŚŝĐŚƌĂŝƐĞĚŶĞǁƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ǀĂůƵĞ ŽĨ Ă ŐĞŶĞƌŝĐ ŵŽĚĞů ĨŽƌƵƌďĂŶ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƚŚĞŶ ďƌŽƵŐŚƚŵŽƌĞĞŶůŝŐŚƚĞŶĞĚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐďĂĐŬƚŽƚŚĞŝƌƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐƉŽŶƐŽƌ
8
ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĐĂŶďĞƐLJƐƚĞŵĂƟĐĂůůLJŵĂŶĂŐĞĚŝĨŽŶĞŬŶŽǁƐǁŚĞƌĞĂŶĚŚŽǁƚŽůŽŽŬ ͶPeter DruckerƉƌŽĨĞƐƐŽƌŽĨŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĂƌǀĂƌĚƵƐŝŶĞƐƐZĞǀŝĞǁƵŶĞϭϵϴϱͿ
dŚĞŽŶůLJǁĂLJƚŽĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌƚŚĞůŝŵŝƚƐŽĨƚŚĞƉŽƐƐŝďůĞŝƐƚŽŐŽďĞLJŽŶĚƚŚĞŵŝŶƚŽƚŚĞŝŵƉŽƐƐŝďůĞ
ͶArthur C ClarkeƐĐŝĞŶĐĞĮĐƟŽŶǁƌŝƚĞƌΗWƌŽĮůĞƐŽĨƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞΗϭϵϳϳͿ
ϵ
FORESIGHT FRAMEworkChaptER 1
Shortcuts
Foresight Framework 10
Five planning phases 11
Two guiding principles 14
The methodology 15
Underlying theories 18
An integrated system 21
Case study Paper 24
10
What do you need to do to plan your next big idea
This chapter will get you started It walks LJŽƵƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƚŚĞĮǀĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƉŚĂƐĞƐŝŶƚŚĞampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚampƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬǁŚŝĐŚĂƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŽ ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJ ĂŶĚ ĂƐƐĞƐƐ ŶĞǁ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞƚŚĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚĂŶĚĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐŶĞĞĚƐŽĨ LJŽƵƌ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĐŽŵƉůĞdž ƉƌŽďůĞŵƐ ĂƐ ƋƵŝĐŬůLJ ĐƌĞĂƟǀĞůLJ ĂŶĚĂƐƐLJƐƚĞŵĂƟĐĂůůLJĂƐƉŽƐƐŝďůĞdŚĞĮǀĞƉŚĂƐĞƐďƵŝůĚŽŶĞĂĐŚŽƚŚĞƌbull WŚĂƐĞWĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ shows you
ŚŽǁƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂůŽŶŐĐůĞĂƌǀŝĞǁďĂƐĞĚŽŶƉĂƩĞƌŶƐŽĨŚŝƐƚŽƌLJ
bull Phase II OpportunityĞdžƉůŽƌĞƐŶĞǁƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐ
bull WŚĂƐĞ^ŽůƵƟŽŶ builds a ǁŽƌŬĂďůĞƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞĨŽƌĂĨƵƚƵƌĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶ
bull Phase IV Team addresses the ƚĂůĞŶƚďĞŚŝŶĚLJŽƵƌďŝŐŝĚĞĂ
bull Phase V VisionĨŽĐƵƐĞƐŽŶĐŽŵƉŽƐŝŶŐĂŶĚĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŶŐƚŚĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŚĂƚǁŝůůŐƵŝĚĞĂůůĨƵƚƵƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐ
The Foresight Framework
dŚĞ ampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ampƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬ ƚĂŬĞƐ ĂŶĂĐƟŽŶͲŽƌŝĞŶƚĞĚƐƚĂŶĐĞ ĨŽĐƵƐŝŶŐŽŶǀĞƌLJƉƌĂĐƟĐĂů ŚĂŶĚƐͲŽŶ ƚŽŽůƐ zŽƵǁŝůů ůĞĂƌŶŚŽǁƚŽƵƐĞŵƵůƟƉůĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĂƐďƵŝůĚŝŶŐďůŽĐŬƐ ĨŽƌ LJŽƵƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐǁŚŝĐŚǁŝůůŚĞůƉLJŽƵŵŽǀĞŐƌĂĚƵĂůůLJĨƌŽŵƚŚĞďŝŐƉŝĐƚƵƌĞƚŽĂƐƉĞĐŝĮĐƉůĂŶŽĨĂĐƟŽŶdŚŝƐŵŽĚĞůǁĂƐ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ ďLJtŝůůŝĂŵ
ŽĐŬĂLJŶĞĂŶĚdĂŵĂƌĂĂƌůĞƚŽŶ ŝŶ ^ŝůŝĐŽŶsĂůůĞLJĂŶĚŚĂƐďĞĞŶƚĞƐƚĞĚĂŶĚǀĂůŝĚĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌůĚKŶĐĞ LJŽƵǀĞ ŵĂƐƚĞƌĞĚ ƚŚĞƐĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐLJŽƵĐĂŶƐƚĂƌƚĂƚĂŶLJƉŽŝŶƚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĂŶĚĐŽŵďŝŶĞƚŚĞŵĂƐŶĞĞĚĞĚ
11
Five planning phases
WZ^Wds KWWKZdhEdz ^KgthdKE dD s^KE
The Foresight Framework is JVTWVZLKVMAuml]LWOHZLZ[OH[guide innovation planning and action
Phase I PerspectivetĞ ƐƚĂƌƚ ǁŝƚŚ WĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ƐŽ LJŽƵƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚǁŚĂƚ Ɛ ďĞĞŶĚŽŶĞďĞĨŽƌĞ ŝŶLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶŽƌŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJWĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞŝƐ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ŽŶ ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ǁŚĂƚLJŽƵŵŝŐŚƚĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂƐƚŚƌĞĞŽƌŵŽƌĞZΘĐLJĐůĞƐŽƵƚŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĨŽƌLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ
Phase II OpportunityŶ ƚŚĞ ŶĞdžƚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ŽĨ KƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ LJŽƵ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ ĂŶ ĂďŝůŝƚLJ ƚŽ ƐĞĞ ŐƌŽǁƚŚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĞdžŝƐƚ ƚŽĚĂLJ ĂŶĚĞdžƚĞŶĚ ŝŶƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ īŽƌƚƐ ĚƵƌŝŶŐƚŚŝƐƉŚĂƐĞŽŌĞŶĨĂůůƵŶĚĞƌƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ
Phase III SolutionƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞƚŚŝƌĚƉŚĂƐĞLJŽƵĚĞĮŶĞLJŽƵƌƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐƉĂƚŚƚŽŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶdŚŝƐƉŚĂƐĞŝƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉŝŶŐ LJŽƵƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
ŝĚĞĂĂŶĚƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐǁŚĂƚLJŽƵŵƵƐƚďƵŝůĚ ƚŽĚĂLJ ƚŽ ƌĞĂůŝnjĞ LJŽƵƌ ĚĞƐŝƌĞĚĨƵƚƵƌĞ
Phase IV TeamKŶĐĞ LJŽƵǀĞ ŽƵƚůŝŶĞĚ LJŽƵƌ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶLJŽƵ ŶŽǁ ŶĞĞĚ ƚŽ ĮŶĚ ŵŽƌĞ ƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĂŶĚ ƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌƐEŽƚŽŶůLJǁŝůů ƚŚĞƐĞƉĞŽƉůĞŚĞĂƌƟůLJĞŵďƌĂĐĞLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŚĞLJǁŝůů ĐŽŽƌĚŝŶĂƚĞ ĂŶĚ ƐƵƉƉŽƌƚ ƚŚĞ ĐƌŝƟĐĂůĚĞƚĂŝůƐŽĨĞdžĞĐƵƟŽŶ
Phase V VisionƐ Ă ƚĞĂŵ LJŽƵ ǁŝůů ŶĞĞĚ ƚŽ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ ĂƐƚƌŽŶŐ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƚŚĂƚ ǁŝůů ŐƵŝĚĞ ĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ƐĂĐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌǁĂƌĚƚŽƐƵĐĐĞƐƐŶĞĂƐLJǁĂLJƚŽƌĞŵĞŵďĞƌƚŚĞĮǀĞƉŚĂƐĞƐŝƐ ƚŽŬŶŽǁƚŚĂƚ ƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ƚŚĞLJŐŝǀĞLJŽƵĂWK^dsƉŽƐŝƟǀĞͿƉĂƚŚƚŽƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ
12
ŝīĞƌĞŶƚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐǁŝůůƵƐĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƚĞƌŵƐ ƚŽ ĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞ ƚŚĞƐĞ ĮǀĞ ƉŚĂƐĞƐƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ^ƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐ WůĂŶŶŝŶŐ ŝƐĐŽǀĞƌLJ ŶǀŝƐŝŽŶŝŶŐ ĞƐŝŐŶ dŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ EĞǁdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ^ŽůƵƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ŵŽƌĞ tŚŝĐŚƚĞƌŵƐĚŽĞƐLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƉƌĞĨĞƌůƐŽ ƚŚĞƌĞ ŝƐ ŶŽ ƐĞƚ ƟŵĞ ƉĞƌŝŽĚ
ĨŽƌ ĞĂĐŚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ƚŚĞ ĚƵƌĂƟŽŶĚĞƉĞŶĚƐŽŶLJŽƵƌ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ
ĂŶĚ ŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ƚLJƉŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŚŽƌŝnjŽŶ ĞŶĐŽŵƉĂƐƐĞƐ ĞǀĞƌLJƚŚŝŶŐ ĨƌŽŵĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƚŽůĂƵŶĐŚĂŶĚĂƐLJŽƵŬŶŽǁĨƌŽŵĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ ƚŚĞƌĞ ĂƌĞ ĨĞǁ ƐŚŽƌƚĐƵƚƐ ƚŽŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶdŚĞƐĞĮǀĞƉŚĂƐĞƐǁŝůůŐŝǀĞLJŽƵĂŚĂŶĚůĞ
ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŚŽƌŝnjŽŶ ĨŽƌ ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵ ŵŝĚͲƚĞƌŵ ĂŶĚƐŚŽƌƚͲƚĞƌŵŶĞĞĚƐ
^ŽƵƌĐĞƵůŝĞŶsĂLJƐƐŝğƌĞϮϬϭϮ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton13
The ambiguity curveůƚŚŽƵŐŚƚŚĞƚŚƌĞĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƉŚĂƐĞƐƚĞŶĚƚŽŽǀĞƌůĂƉŝŶƌĞĂůůŝĨĞĞĂĐŚƉŚĂƐĞŝŶǀŽůǀĞƐĂĚŝƐƟŶĐƚƐĞƚŽĨĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞďƌŽĂĚĞƌůŝĨĞĐLJĐůĞŽĨůŽŶŐͲƌĂŶŐĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶKŌĞŶ ƚŚĞ ƐƚĂƌƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŚĂƐ
ƚŚĞ ŚŝŐŚĞƐƚ ĂŵďŝŐƵŝƚLJ ĨŽƌ ƵƐĞƌƐ dŚŝƐ ŝƐǁŚĞŶ ƚŚĞ ŵŽƐƚ ŶƵŵďĞƌ ŽĨ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĂŶĚ ƵŶŬŶŽǁŶƐ ĞdžŝƐƚ Ɛ ƚŚĞ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐĞƐ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ŐĂŝŶŵŽƌĞ ĂŶƐǁĞƌƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ůĞĂĚƐ ƚŽ Ă ƐƚĞĂĚLJĂŶĚŽŌĞŶĐŽŵĨŽƌƟŶŐͿĚƌŽƉŝŶĂŵďŝŐƵŝƚLJ
Dh
dz
dD
Aŵď ŝ ŐƵ ŝ ƚ LJ Ƶ ƌ vĞ
ƉĞƌŝŽĚŽĨŚŝŐŚĂŵďŝŐƵŝƚLJ
ZampgtdKEWhere would you put yourself
on the Ambiguity Curve
14
Two guiding principles
Principle 1What you foresee is what you getWĞŽƉůĞǁŚŽďĞůŝĞǀĞƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJĐĂŶĐŚĂŶŐĞƚŚĞ ǁŽƌůĚ ĂůƌĞĂĚLJ ƉŽƐƐĞƐƐ Ă ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵǀŝƐŝŽŶ ŽĨ ĐŚĂŶŐĞ dŚĞ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐ ǁŚŽŵĂŬĞ Ă ĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌůĚ ĂƌĞƉƌŽĂĐƟǀĞ Ăƚ ŚĞĂƌƚ ůŝŶŬŝŶŐ ƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ ĂŶĚĚŽŝŶŐŶŽƚŚĞƌǁŽƌĚƐŝĨLJŽƵĐĂŶŝŵĂŐŝŶĞĂŶ ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞĚ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƐƚĂƚĞ LJŽƵ ĐĂŶ ůŝŬĞůLJŵĂŬĞ ŝƚ ŚĂƉƉĞŶ gtŝŬĞ ĂŶ ĂƚŚůĞƚĞ ŝĨ LJŽƵĐĂŶƉŝĐƚƵƌĞLJŽƵƌƐĞůĨǁŝŶŶŝŶŐƚŚĞƌĂĐĞLJŽƵǁŝůů ŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞLJŽƵƌ ĐŚĂŶĐĞƐ ƚŽ ƌĞĂůŝnjĞ ƚŚĞŽƵƚĐŽŵĞLJŽƵǁĂŶƚ
Principle 2You canrsquot put off tomorrowWƌŽĐƌĂƐƟŶĂƟŽŶĚŽĞƐŶŽƚƐƚŽƉ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞĨƌŽŵŚĂƉƉĞŶŝŶŐ^ŝŵŝůĂƌ ƚŽ ƚŚĞĐŽŵŵŽŶƉŚƌĂƐĞŽŶĂĐĂƌ ƐƐŝĚĞǀŝĞǁŵŝƌƌŽƌKďũĞĐƚƐŝŶƚŚĞŵŝƌƌŽƌĂƌĞĐůŽƐĞƌƚŚĂŶƚŚĞLJĂƉƉĞĂƌ dŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƚĂŬĞƐƟŵĞƚŽďƵŝůĚĂŶĚĞĂĐŚĚĂLJ ŝƐ ĂŶ ŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ƚŽ ƌĞŇĞĐƚ ŽŶ ĂŶĚƉůĂŶĨŽƌƚŚĞŶĞdžƚĚĂLJLJůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŽĨ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ LJŽƵĐĂŶĞŶũŽLJŵŽƌĞŽĨƚŚĞƟŵĞLJŽƵŚĂǀĞƚŽĚĂLJĂŶĚĂůƐŽĞŶƐƵƌĞĂďƌŝŐŚƚĞƌƚŽŵŽƌƌŽǁ
15
The methodology
PHASE I PERSPECTIVEWĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ŐŝǀĞƐ LJŽƵ Ă ďƌŽĂĚ ĨƌĂŵĞ ŽĨ ƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞŚŽůĚŝŶŐ ƵƉ Ă ŵŝƌƌŽƌ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ƉĂƐƚ ƐŽ LJŽƵ ŵĂLJ ďĞƩĞƌĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ
ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƐŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƚŚĞŵĂŝŶĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐŽĨLJŽƵƌĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƉƌŽďůĞŵŽƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƐƉĂĐĞїƉĂŐĞϲϭ
WƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐƉƵƚĞǀĞŶƚƟŵĞůŝŶĞƐŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJůŝĨĞͲĐLJĐůĞƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƐŝŶĐŽŶƚĞdžƚїƉĂŐĞϳϬ
ĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐůĞƚLJŽƵƚŽǀŝĞǁŵƵůƟƉůĞŽǀĞƌͲůĂƉƉŝŶŐĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌƐĞĐƟŶŐĞǀĞŶƚƐŝŶĂƐŝŶŐůĞĨƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬїƉĂŐĞϴϭ
ĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĐƐǀŝĞǁƐƚŚĞĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĐŚĂŶŐĞƐĂŶĚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůǀŝĞǁƐŽĨĂƚĂƌŐĞƚƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶїƉĂŐĞϵϰ
ampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞƐLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌďĂƐĞĚŽŶǁŚĂƚǁŝůůĂŶĚǁŝůůŶŽƚͿĐŚĂŶŐĞĨƌŽŵƚŽĚĂLJ ƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌїƉĂŐĞϭϬϯ
ampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐƵƐĞƐůŝǀĞƚŚĞĂƚĞƌƚŽŝůůƵƐƚƌĂƚĞĂƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌƵƐĞƌŶĞĞĚĂƐĂƌĞĂůŝƐƟĐƐĐĞŶĞĨƌŽŵƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞїƉĂŐĞϭϭϰ
PHASE II OPPORTUNITYdŚĞ ƐĞĐŽŶĚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉƐ ĂŶ ĂďŝůŝƚLJ ƚŽ ƐĞĞ ŐƌŽǁƚŚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĞdžŝƐƚ ƚŽĚĂLJ ĂŶĚ ĞdžƚĞŶĚ ŝŶƚŽ ƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞďLJƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ
16
PHASE III SOLUTIONdŚĞ ƚŚŝƌĚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ƐĞĞŬƐ ƚŽ ĚĞĮŶĞ ƚŚĞ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ƚŚĂƚĞdžŝƐƚ ĂůŽŶŐ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ƉĂƚŚƐ ƚŽ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ǁŚŝĐŚ ĂƌĞƐƉĞĐŝĮĐƚŽLJŽƵƌŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂŶĚƚĞĂŵƐŬŝůůƐ
tŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐĮŶĚƐŚŝĚĚĞŶŵĂƌŬĞƚƐĂŶĚƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐĂďƌŽĂĚůŽŽŬĂƚƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĞƟƚŽƌůĂŶĚƐĐĂƉĞїƉĂŐĞϭϮϳ
WĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐĐƌĞĂƚĞƚĂŶŐŝďůĞŵŽĚĞůƐŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂƐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵĐĂŶƚĞƐƚĂƚůŽǁĐŽƐƚĨŽƌŚŝŐŚůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐǀĂůƵĞ їƉĂŐĞϭϯϲ
ŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƐƉůŽƚƚŚĞŵĂũŽƌŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵǁŝůůŶĞĞĚƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞŽŶLJŽƵƌƉĂƚŚƚŽĂĐƚŝŽŶїƉĂŐĞϭϰϵ
ƵĚĚLJŚĞĐŬƐŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵĮŶĚŐŽŽĚƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŵĂƚĐŚĞƐĨŽƌŵŽƌĞƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĂŶĚƚĞĂŵŵĂƚĞƐїƉĂŐĞϭϲϴ
sK^ƚĂƌƐŝĚĞŶƟĮĞƐLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐĂƉƟƚƵĚĞĨŽƌƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉїƉĂŐĞϭϳϴ
ƌŽǁĚůŽǀĞƌƐŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵŵĂƉLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƚŽďƌŝŶŐLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂƚŽůŝĨĞїƉĂŐĞϭϴϴ
ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐŝƚĞƌĂƟŽŶŝƐƚŚĞĂƌŬŽƌƐĞPrototypeїƉĂŐĞϭϰϱ
PHASE IV TEAMdŚĞ ĨŽƵƌƚŚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ĨŽĐƵƐĞƐ ŽŶ ĮŶĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƚĂůĞŶƚ ĂŶĚůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŶĞĞĚƐƚŽƚĂŬĞĂŶŝĚĞĂĨŽƌǁĂƌĚĂƐĂŶĞǁŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
17
PHASE V VISIONdŚĞ ĮŌŚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ƐŚĂƌƉĞŶƐ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ Ɛ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƐŽ ƚŚĂƚ ŝƚŵĂLJƚĂŬĞŽŶĂůŝĨĞŽĨŝƚƐŽǁŶĂŶĚŐƵŝĚĞĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ƐĂĐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ
dŚĞsŝƐŝŽŶ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵƚĞůůLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂĂƐĂĐůĞĂƌĂŶĚĐŽŶĐŝƐĞƐƵŵŵĂƌLJїƉĂŐĞϮϬϯ
dŚĞDARPA ĂƌĚdĞƐƚŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŽĨLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶїƉĂŐĞϮϭϯ
WĂƚŚĮŶĚĞƌƐĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞƐĂŶŝĚĞĂ ƐďĞƐƚƉĂƚŚƚŚƌŽƵŐŚLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶŽƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬїƉĂŐĞϮϯϬ
18
Underlying theories
dŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞůLJĨŽĐƵƐĞƐŽŶƚŚĞĂƉƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĨŽƌ ƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ůů ŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂů ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŽƌĞƟĐĂůĚĞƚĂŝůƐ ŚĂǀĞ ďĞĞŶ ŝŶƚĞŶƟŽŶĂůůLJ ŽŵŝƩĞĚƐŽƚŚĞƉůĂLJŬĨĞĞůƐŵŽƌĞůŝŬĞĂŚĂŶĚƐͲŽŶǁŽƌŬŬĂŶĚůĞƐƐůŝŬĞĂƚĞdžƚŬampŽƌ ƚŚŽƐĞ ǁŚŽ ůŝŬĞ ƚŽ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ
ƚŚĞŽƌĞƟĐĂůƵŶĚĞƌƉŝŶŶŝŶŐƐĂůůƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŚĂǀĞ ďĞĞŶ ŝŶƐƉŝƌĞĚ Žƌ ƌĞͲĐŽŵďŝŶĞĚ ĨƌŽŵƚŚĞ ďĞƐƚ ŝŶ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂůZΘĨƵƚƵƌĞƐƚƵĚŝĞƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƌĞůĂƚĞĚĮĞůĚƐƚƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐĂ ƌŽďƵƐƚ ŚĂŶĚŬ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ƚĂĐƟĐƐƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐĂŶĚƉƌŽĐĞĚƵƌĞƐLJŽƵǁŝůůŶĞĞĚƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂĂŶĚƚĞĂŵdŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ƚĂďůĞ ďƌŝĞŇLJ ĞdžƉůĂŝŶƐ
ŚŽǁƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŚĞƌĞƌĞůĂƚĞƚŽĞdžŝƐƟŶŐƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐĂŶĚƚŽŽůƐ
DĞƚŚŽĚ ZĞůĂƚĞĚƚŽŽůƐΘƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐ KƵƌƵŶŝƋƵĞďĞŶĞĮƚ
ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƐ
хƌĂŝŶƐƚŽƌŵŝŶŐхDŝŶĚŵĂƉƉŝŶŐ
ZĞƚĂŝŶƐĐŽŵƉůĞdžŝƚLJŽĨƚŽƉŝĐǁŚŝůĞďĞŐŝŶŶŝŶŐƚŽĐŽŶǀĞƌŐĞŽŶƉƌŝŽƌŝƚLJĂƌĞĂƐ
WƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐ
х^ͲĐƵƌǀĞƐƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂĚŽƉƟŽŶͿхŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂůƟŵĞůŝŶĞƐ
ŽŶŶĞĐƚƐŵƵůƟƉůĞƌĞůĂƚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĂŶĚŚŝŐŚůŝŐŚƚƐƉƌĞĐĞĚĞŶƚƐ
ĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐ
хŽŶĞƐŽĨƵŶĐĞƌƚĂŝŶƚLJхDŝůŝĞƵƐƚƵĚŝĞƐ
hŶĐŽǀĞƌƐŝŶĚŝƌĞĐƚŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞƐĂŶĚĞǀĞŶƚƐǁŝƚŚŝŶĂŶĞƌĂ
ĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĐƐ
хWŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶĂŶĂůLJƟĐƐĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƐͿхĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ
ĚĞŶƟĮĞƐƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŐƌŽƵƉĂŶĚƐŚĂƌĞĚǀĂůƵĞƐ
ampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌ
хhƐĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶĂƐхsŽŝĐĞŽĨƚŚĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞƐхEĞĞĚͲĮŶĚŝŶŐ
ĞƐĐƌŝďĞƐĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌŶĞĞĚƐǁŝƚŚŽƵƚĞdžƚƌĂƉŽůĂƟŶŐďŝĂƐĞƐĨƌŽŵƚŽĚĂLJ ƐƵƐĞƌƐ
ϭϵ
DĞƚŚŽĚ ZĞůĂƚĞĚƚŽŽůƐΘƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐ KƵƌƵŶŝƋƵĞďĞŶĞĮƚ
ampƵƚƵƌĞͲƚĞůůŝŶŐ
х^ƚŽƌLJƚĞůůŝŶŐхdžƉĞƌŝĞŶƟĂůĚĞƐŝŐŶхhƐĞĐĂƐĞƐхZŽůĞͲƉůĂLJŝŶŐ
ŽŶǀĞLJƐŶŽŶǀĞƌďĂůĂŶĚĐŽŶƚĞdžƚƵĂůĚĞƚĂŝůƐĂďŽƵƚĂĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞĐĂƐĞ
tŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐ
хƌŽǁƚŚͲƐŚĂƌĞŵĂƚƌŝdžŵĂƚƌŝdžͿхůƵĞŽĐĞĂŶƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ
ĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞƐĨƵƚƵƌĞĨŽĐƵƐŽĨŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŝƚĞƌĂƟǀĞĮůƚĞƌƐ
WĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐ
хWƌŽĚƵĐƚƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉŝŶŐůŽǁĮĚĞůŝƚLJͿх^ĐĂůĞŵŽĚĞůƐŵĂƋƵĞƩĞƐͿ
WƌŽĚƵĐĞƐƐLJƐƚĞŵŵŽĚĞůƐƚŚĂƚĚŝƐƉůĂLJƚŚĞŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶƐĂŶĚƌĞůĂƚĞĚĐŽŵƉŽŶĞŶƚƐ
ĂƌŬŽƌƐĞ
хKƵƚͲŽĨͲďŽdžƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ ZĞƐĞƚƐŝĚĞĂďĂĐŬƚŽĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůĐŽƌĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
ŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƐ
хĂĐŬĐĂƐƟŶŐх^ƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐŝŶŇĞĐƟŽŶƉŽŝŶƚƐ
WƌŝŽƌŝƟnjĞƐƚŽƉĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐďĂƐĞĚŽŶĚŝƌĞĐƚƉĂƚŚƚŽĚĞƐŝƌĞĚĨƵƚƵƌĞ
20
DĞƚŚŽĚ ZĞůĂƚĞĚƚŽŽůƐΘƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐ KƵƌƵŶŝƋƵĞďĞŶĞĮƚ
ƵĚĚLJŚĞĐŬƐ
х^ƚĂƌƚƵƉƐƉĞĞĚĚĂƟŶŐхZŽůĞͲƉůĂLJŝŶŐ
gtĞƐƚLJŽƵƋƵŝĐŬůLJĮůƚĞƌƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĂŶĚƚĞĂŵŵĂƚĞƐ
sK^ƚĂƌƐ
хdͲƐŚĂƉĞĚƉĞŽƉůĞхĂƌĞĞƌƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƚĞƐƚƐхƌĞĂƟǀĞůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉƉƌŽĮůĞƐ
ĞƐĐƌŝďĞƐƚŚĞŵŝdžŽĨƚƌĂŝƚƐŶĞĞĚĞĚĨŽƌƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉ
ƌŽǁĚůŽǀĞƌƐ
х^ŽĐŝĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŵĂƉƉŝŶŐхtĞĂŬƟĞƐхŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟǀĞŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶEĞƚǁŽƌŬŽEͿ
ĚĞŶƟĮĞƐƚŚĞƚLJƉĞƐŽĨƌĞůĂƟŽŶͲƐŚŝƉƐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚĨŽƌĨŽƐƚĞƌŝŶŐĂĐƵůƚƵƌĞŽĨŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
sŝƐŝŽŶ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ
х^ƚĂƌƚͲƵƉĞůĞǀĂƚŽƌƉŝƚĐŚĞƐхDŝƐƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚƐ
WƌŽǀŝĚĞƐĂƐŝŵƉůĞĨŽƌŵƵůĂƚŽƚĞůůĂĨƵƚƵƌĞǀŝƐŝŽŶ
DARPA ĂƌĚdĞƐƚ
хdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJƌĞĂĚŝŶĞƐƐƐĐĂůĞƐ
ǀĂůƵĂƚĞƐĨƵƚƵƌĞǀŝƐŝŽŶŝŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨŝƚƐďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů
WĂƚŚĮŶĚĞƌƐ
хtĂLJĮŶĚŝŶŐхŝīƵƐŝŽŶŽĨŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶхltŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞĂĐƟǀŝƐƚƐ
ŚĂƌƚƐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚĞĸĐŝĞŶƚƐƵĐĐĞƐƐƉĂƚŚĨŽƌĂŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂƚŚƌŽƵŐŚĂŶŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ
21
ůůƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĂƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŽŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌĂƐĂĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĐŽŵƉƌĞŚĞŶƐŝǀĞĂŶĚĐŽŚĞƌĞŶƚƐLJƐƚĞŵdŚŝŶŬŽĨĐƌĞĂƟŶŐĂďƵŝůĚŝŶŐďLJďƌŝŶŐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞďůŽĐŬƐ ƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚĮƚ^LJƐƚĞŵƐƚŚŝŶŬĞƌƐͶƚŚŽƐĞǁŚŽĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ
ƉƌŽďůĞŵƐĂƐŝŶƚĞƌͲƌĞůĂƚĞĚƉĂƌƚƐŽĨĂŶŽǀĞƌĂůůƐLJƐƚĞŵͶƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌůLJ ĞŶũŽLJ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐŚŽǁ ƚŚĞ ǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ǁŽƌŬ ƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌĂŶĚŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞŽŶĞĂŶŽƚŚĞƌĂƐĂǁŚŽůĞdŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĐĂŶďĞůĂLJĞƌĞĚŽŶƚŽƉŽĨ
ŽŶĞ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ŝŶ ƚĞƌŵƐ ŽĨ ƟŵŝŶŐ ŝŶƚĞŶƚĂŶĚƚŚĞŵĞLJůĂLJĞƌŝŶŐLJŽƵĐĂŶƐĞĞŚŽǁƚŚĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĞůĞŵĞŶƚƐĐŽŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂŶĚĞdžƚĞŶĚĨƌŽŵŽŶĞĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ dŚŝƐĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĂůƐŽĂůůŽǁƐLJŽƵƚŽƐĞĞƚŚĞĐŽŵƉůĞdžŝƚLJŽĨLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂdŚĞ ĂŶƵƐ ŽŶĞƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐ
ƚŚĞ ƵŶĚĞƌůLJŝŶŐ ďĂƐĞůŝŶĞ ŽĨ ƟŵĞ ĨŽƌ ĂůůƚŚĞ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƚŽŽůƐ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ĐĞŶƚĞƌ ŽĨ ŝƚǀŝƐƵĂůůLJŵĂƌŬƐƚŽĚĂLJDĞƚŚŽĚƐŝŶWŚĂƐĞĨŽĐƵƐŽŶƌĞǀŝĞǁŝŶŐƉĂƐƚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƐ
ƐŽ ƵƐĞƌƐ ǁŽƌŬ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ůĞŌ ƐŝĚĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞĂŶƵƐ ŽŶĞƐ dŚĞŶ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŝŶ WŚĂƐĞ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƚ ƚŽĚĂLJƐ ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ ƚŽ ĨƵƚƵƌĞĞdžƉĞĐƚĂƟŽŶƐ ƐŽ ƵƐĞƌƐ ďĞŐŝŶ ƚŽ ĐƌŽƐƐŝŶƚŽ ƚŚĞ ƌŝŐŚƚ ƐŝĚĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĂŶƵƐ ŽŶĞƐLJ WŚĂƐĞ ƵƐĞƌƐǁŽƌŬ ĞŶƟƌĞůLJ ŝŶ ƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ ǁŚŝĐŚ ŝƐ ĐĂƉƚƵƌĞĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƌŝŐŚƚƐŝĚĞŽĨƚŚĞĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐdŚĂƚ ƐĂŝĚ ǁŝƚŚŽƵƚ ƐĞĞŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ
ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŝŶ ĂĐƟŽŶ ƚŚŝƐ ŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƟŽŶŵĂLJƐŽƵŶĚ ďĞǁŝůĚĞƌŝŶŐ tĞ ǁŝůů ƐŚŽǁ LJŽƵŚŽǁƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĮƚƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ĂƐǁĞůůĂƐƚŚĞŝƌ ƉůĂĐĞŵĞŶƚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ŽǀĞƌĂůů ƐLJƐƚĞŵƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƚŚĞŶĞdžƚƐĞƚŽĨĐŚĂƉƚĞƌƐzŽƵŵĂLJǁŝƐŚƚŽƌĞǀŝƐŝƚƚŚŝƐƐĞĐƟŽŶƚŽ
ƐĞĞŚŽǁLJŽƵĐĂŶůŝŶŬƐŽŵĞŽƌĂůůŽĨƚŚĞĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ĚǀĂŶĐĞĚƵƐĞƌƐŽŌĞŶƚĂŬĞƚŚĞŶĞdžƚƐƚĞƉĚŝƐƉůĂLJŝŶŐƚŚĞƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŽĨƚŚĞŝƌ ŝĚĞĂƐŽŶ ůĂƌŐĞŇŝƉĐŚĂƌƚƐ ĂŶĚ ǁĂůů ƉŽƐƚĞƌƐ ĨŽƌ ŝŶƉƵƚ ĂŶĚƌĞŇĞĐƟŽŶĨƌŽŵƚŚĞĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJŶŵĂŶLJĐĂƐĞƐƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐďŝŐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĚƌĂǁŝŶŐďŝŐ
An integrated system
22copy ϮϬϭϮtŝůůŝĂŵŽĐŬĂLJŶĞΘdĂŵĂƌĂĂƌůĞƚŽŶ
23
Ŷ ĂĚĚŝƟŽŶ ŵĂŶLJ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐǁŽƌŬ ǁĞůů ĂƐ ƐƵďͲƐĞƚƐ ^ŽŵĞ ƉŽƐƐŝďůĞĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶƐŝŶĐůƵĚĞ
dŚĞ WƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶ ƵƌǀĞƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ǁŚŝĐŚĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞƐƚŚĞĞǀŽůƵƟŽŶŽĨǀĂƌŝŽƵƐĞǀĞŶƚƐŵĂLJ ďĞ ĞīĞĐƟǀĞůLJ ĐŽŵďŝŶĞĚ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞĂŶƵƐ ŽŶĞƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐ ĂďƌŽĂĚĞƌŵĂƉƉŝŶŐŽĨĐŽŝŶĐŝĚŝŶŐŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂůĞǀĞŶƚƐ
dŚĞ ĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂů ƌĐƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƚĂŬĞƐĂ ŵĞƚĂ ǀŝĞǁ ŽĨ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂů ĐŚĂŶŐĞƐǁŚŝůĞ ƚŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞ hƐĞƌ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƚĂŬĞƐ ĂŵŝĐƌŽ ǀŝĞǁ ŽĨ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂů ĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐLJ ĐŽŵďŝŶŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƚǁŽ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŚĞŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůĐĂŶƚŚĞŶďĞƉůĂĐĞĚǁŝƚŚŝŶŚŝƐŽƌŚĞƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ
dŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞ hƐĞƌ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ŵĂLJ ďĞĐŽŵďŝŶĞĚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŽŵĂŬĞƚŚĞŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐŵŽƌĞŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟǀĞĂŶĚƚĂŶŐŝďůĞ
dŚĞĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐŝĚĞŶƟĮĞĚŝŶƚŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƐ ĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ Ă ĨĂƐƚ ǁĂLJ ƚŽĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞ ƚŚĞ ĂdžĞƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞtŚŝƚĞ ^ƉŽƚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚ
zŽƵƌampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌƐŚŽƵůĚĞdžŝƐƚŝŶƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶLJŽƵĚĞĮŶĞŝŶƚŚĞtŚŝƚĞ ƉŽƚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚĂŶĚLJŽƵ ƐŚŽƵůĚ ƐĞĞ ƚŚĞ ƉĞƌƐŽŶ Ɛ ĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞĚŶĞĞĚƐƌĞŇĞĐƚĞĚŝŶLJŽƵƌĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ
dŚĞ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶ ĞŵďŽĚŝĞĚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ WĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƐŚŽƵůĚ ĞdžŝƐƚ ĞŝƚŚĞƌĂůŽŶŐ ƚŚĞǁĂLJ Žƌ Ăƚ ƚŚĞ ĞŶĚ ƉŽŝŶƚ ŽĨ ĂŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚ
dŚĞ ŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ tŚŝƚĞ ^ƉŽƚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚ ĐĂŶ ďĞ ůŝŶŬĞĚ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ ŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŚŽǁŝŶŐƚŚĞƐƉĞĐŝĮĐƐƚĞƉƐůĞĂĚŝŶŐƵƉƚŽĂĚĞƐŝƌĞĚĨƵƚƵƌĞ
24
gtĞĂŶŝŶŐ ďĂĐŬ ŝŶ ŚĞƌ ŽĸĐĞ ĐŚĂŝƌ ŶŶĂWĞŶƌŽƐĞ Ă ƉƐĞƵĚŽŶLJŵͿ ƌĞŇĞĐƚĞĚ ŽŶŚĞƌ ůĂƚĞƐƚ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞǁŝƚŚŵŝdžĞĚ ĨĞĞůŝŶŐƐ^ĞǀĞƌĂů ǁĞĞŬƐ ĂŐŽ ƐŚĞ ŚĂĚ ĂŐƌĞĞĚ ƚŽůĞĂĚĂŶĞǁ ƚĂƐŬ ĨŽƌĐĞĂƚŚĞƌ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ĂůĞĂĚĞƌ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƉƵůƉ ĂŶĚ ƉĂƉĞƌ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ZĞƐƉŽŶĚŝŶŐ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ŐƌŽǁŝŶŐ ŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚ ŝŶĐůĞĂŶĞƌ ĂŶĚ ŵŽƌĞ ƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďůĞ ƉĂƉĞƌƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐĨƌŽŵĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐĂŶĚƐƵƉƉůŝĞƌƐ ŚĞƌ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ Ɛ ƚĂƐŬ ĨŽƌĐĞ ŚĂĚƚŚĞ ĂŵďŝƟŽƵƐ ƚĂƐŬ ƚŽ ƌĞǁŽƌŬ ƚŚĞ ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJŽĨŝƚƐĐŽƌĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŽĨƉĂƉĞƌ Žǁ ĐŽƵůĚ ƚŚĞLJ ƌĞƚŚŝŶŬ ƉĂƉĞƌ WĂƉĞƌ
ǁĂƐĂĐůĂƐƐŝĐĞdžĂŵƉůĞŽĨĂŵĂƐƐƉƌŽĚƵĐĞĚƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞͲŝŶƚĞŶƐŝǀĞĂŶĚƵůƚƌĂͲĐŽŶǀĞŶƟŽŶĂůĐŽŵŵŽĚŝƚLJ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚǁĂƌƚĞĚ ƉŽƐŝƟǀĞĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂůďƌĂŶĚŝŶŐDŽƐƚǁŽƌŬĞƌƐĂŶĚĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌƐǁĞƌĞĚƌŝǀĞŶƚŽŵŝŶŝŵŝnjĞƉĂƉĞƌĐŽŶƐƵŵƉƟŽŶ ŵĂdžŝŵŝnjĞ ƌĞĐLJĐůĞĚ ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚĂŶĚĂůƐŽŚĂĚďŝŐŐĞƌŶĞĞĚƐŽŶƚŚĞŝƌŵŝŶĚĂƚǁŽƌŬĂŶĚŚŽŵĞĞŶĐĞ WĞŶƌŽƐĞ ŬŶĞǁ ƚŚĞLJ ŶĞĞĚĞĚ
ƚŽ ƌĞĂĐŚ ŽƵƚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ƵƐĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ĐŚĂŶŐĞƚŚĞŝƌ ƉĞƌĐĞƉƟŽŶƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ƉĂƉĞƌ ďŽůĚĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ
How should my team begindŽ ƐƵĐĐĞĞĚ ŝŶ ƌĞĂĐŚŝŶŐ ŽƵƚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ƵƐĞƌ WĞŶƌŽƐĞ ĚĞĐŝĚĞĚ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ Ɛ ĨŽĐƵƐ ǁĂƐŽŶ ŝŵƉƌŽǀŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂůĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶĂďŽƵƚƉĂƉĞƌ WĞŶƌŽƐĞĂŶĚƚǁŽŽĨŚĞƌĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐŶĂƌƌŽǁĞĚĚŽǁŶƚŚĞƚĂƐŬƚŽƚŚĞƚŚƌĞĞŵŽƐƚŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚŐƵŝĚŝŶŐƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐͻ ƌĞƚŚĞƌĞŶĞǁǁĂLJƐŽĨ
ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŶŐƚŚĞĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂůĨƌŝĞŶĚůŝŶĞƐƐŽĨƉĂƉĞƌ
ͻ ĨƐŽǁŚĂƚƚLJƉĞŽĨŵĞƐƐĂŐĞƐǁŽƵůĚƌĞƐŽŶĂƚĞŵŽƐƚǁŝƚŚǁŚŝĐŚŐƌŽƵƉƐ
ͻ ŽǁƐŚŽƵůĚƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĐŽŶǀĞLJƚŚĞŵĞƐƐĂŐĞƐĂƐƉĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞŝƌĨƵƚƵƌĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ
Ŷ ĞĐŽͲĐŽŶƐĐŝŽƵƐ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ǁŽƵůĚ ĨŽƌƟĨLJ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƐďƌĂŶĚ ĂŶĚ ďŽŽƐƚ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĞƟƟǀĞŶĞƐƐŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ Ɛ ŬĞLJ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ tŚŝůĞWĞŶƌŽƐĞĨĞůƚĐŽŶĮĚĞŶƚƚŚĂƚƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJǁĂƐĂůƌĞĂĚLJŐŽŝŶŐŝŶƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚĚŝƌĞĐƟŽŶŝŶŝƚƐŐĞŶĞƌĂůĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶƐŚĞǁĂƐƐƵƌĞƚŚĞƌĞǁĂƐŵƵĐŚƌŽŽŵĨŽƌƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĨƵƚƵƌĞŝŵƉƌŽǀĞŵĞŶƚƐ Ğƌ ŬĞLJ ĐŽŶĐĞƌŶ ǁĂƐ ƚŽ
CASE STUDY | Future vision for paper
ŵĂŬĞƐƵƌĞƚŚĂƚƚŚĞĮŶĂůƉƌŽƉŽƐĂůǁŽƵůĚĂĚĚƌĞƐƐ ŝƐƐƵĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƌĞĂůůLJ ŵĂƩĞƌĞĚ ƚŽƚŚĞŝƌ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ
How do we introduce new methods in radical innovationWĞŶƌŽƐĞƌĞĐƌƵŝƚĞĚƚǁŽĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐƚŽƉůĂŶƚŚĞŶĞdžƚƐƚĞƉƐďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞLJǁĞƌĞĂůƌĞĂĚLJĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ WůĂLJŬƐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŵĞƚŚŽĚƐdŚĞLJǁŽƵůĚƵƐĞƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƚŽƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĂďƌŽĂĚĞƌŐƌŽƵƉŝĚĞĂƟŽŶWĂƌƚŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƉŚŝůŽƐŽƉŚLJ ǁĂƐ ƚŽ ĞůĞǀĂƚĞ ƚŚĞƵƐƵĂůĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐĂƌŽƵŶĚĨƵƚƵƌĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶďLJŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐŝŶŐĂŶĞǁƐĞƚŽĨŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƚŚĂƚǁŽƵůĚƐĞƌǀĞĂƐĂŶĞƵƚƌĂůƐŚĂƌĞĚƉůĂƞŽƌŵĨŽƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞƚĞĂŵǁŽƌŬĂŶĚƉƌŽŵƉƚŵŽƌĞŽƵƚͲŽĨͲďŽdžƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐŶƐƚĞĂĚ ŽĨ Ă ƚLJƉŝĐĂů ďƌĂŝŶƐƚŽƌŵ ƚŚĞ
ƚĞĂŵ ƉůĂŶŶĞĚ Ă ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ƚŽďƵŝůĚƐŚĂƌĞĚĂǁĂƌĞŶĞƐƐĂŶĚĐŽŵŵŝƚŵĞŶƚĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞƚŽƉŝĐdŚĞLJǁĂŶƚĞĚƚŽŝŶĐůƵĚĞĂŶĚ ĂůŝŐŶ ĚŝǀĞƌƐĞ ƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞƐ ĂĐƌŽƐƐĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ĚŝǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ƐŽ ƚŚĞLJ ŝŶǀŝƚĞĚ ϭϲ
25
ĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌƐ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ĞdžƉĞƌƚƐ ĨƌŽŵƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂů ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ƐƵƉƉŽƌƚ ƐĂůĞƐĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶǀĞƌLJŽŶĞŚĂĚĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚĂŶĚǁŽƌŬĞĚŝŶĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƵŶŝƚďƵƚǁĂƐƉĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞƐĂŵĞǀĂůƵĞĐŚĂŝŶƚŚĂƚƐĞƌǀĞĚƚŚĞƐĂŵĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ Ŷ Ă ƐŝdžͲŚŽƵƌǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉWĞŶƌŽƐĞŚŽƉĞĚƚŽŐĂŝŶĂƉŽƌƞŽůŝŽŽĨŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĐŽƵůĚ ďĞ ĐĂƌƌŝĞĚ ĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ ŝŶƚŽĨƵƌƚŚĞƌĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂŶĚĞǀĞŶƚƵĂůůLJ ŝŶƚŽŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ
How can we set the right focus and still embrace ambiguityŶƚŚĞǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƚŚĞƚĂƐŬĨŽƌĐĞƐĞƚĂůŽŽƐĞŽďũĞĐƟǀĞƚŽŝŵƉƌŽǀĞƚŚĞĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂůĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƉĂƉĞƌ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƚŚĞLJŚŽƉĞĚ ǁŽƵůĚ ĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞ ĐƌĞĂƟǀĞĨƌĞĞĚŽŵ ŽǁĞǀĞƌ ƚŚĞ ƉůĂŶ ƐĞĞŵĞĚ ƚŽďĂĐŬĮƌĞŶƐƚĞĂĚŽĨĐƌĞĂƟǀĞĨƌĞĞĚŽŵƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ
ǁĂŶƚĞĚĚĞĮŶĞĚĨŽĐƵƐĞĚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽŐƵŝĚĞƚŚĞŝƌ ŝĚĞĂƟŽŶ dŚĞLJ ǁĞƌĞ ƵŶĐŽŵĨŽƌƚĂďůĞǁŝƚŚƚŚĞŚŝŐŚůĞǀĞůŽĨĂŵďŝŐƵŝƚLJĐŽŵŵŽŶƚŽŵĂŶLJĞĂƌůLJͲƐƚĂŐĞŝŶǀĞƐƟŐĂƟŽŶƐ
dŽ ĂĚĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƚĞĂŵƐ ĞĂĐŚ ŝĚĞŶƟĮĞĚ Ă ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ƚĂƌŐĞƚŐƌŽƵƉ ǁŚŝĐŚ ĐƌĞĂƚĞĚ ŵŽƌĞ ĂŵďŝŐƵŝƚLJ dŚĞLJĂƩĞŵƉƚĞĚƚŽŚƵŐƚŚĞĞŶƟƌĞǁŽƌůĚ ƐĂŝĚŽŶĞĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚŽƌ ŝŶĐĞƚŚĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƚĞĂŵĚŝĚŶŽƚƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐŽƌƵƐĞƌĚĂƚĂŝŶĂĚǀĂŶĐĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐƌĞůŝĞĚŽŶƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƐĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ƚĂƌŐĞƚŐƌŽƵƉƐƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞƐdŚĞĨƵnjnjLJLJŝĞůĚŽĨƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĚŝƐĐŽƵƌĂŐĞĚ
ŵĂŶLJƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐtŝƚŚŽƵƚĂĐůĞĂƌƉƌŽĮůĞŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƚĂƌŐĞƚ ŐƌŽƵƉ ƚĞĂŵƐ ƐƚƌƵŐŐůĞĚ ƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĐŽŵƉĞůůŝŶŐǀŝƐŝŽŶƐĂŶĚĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƐĐĞŶĂƌŝŽƐǁŝƚŚƚŚĞĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĐƐĂŶĚampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌŵĞƚŚŽĚƐdŚĞLJƐĂǁůŝƩůĞǀĂůƵĞŝŶƐĐƌŝƉƟŶŐĂƐĐĞŶĂƌŝŽƚŚĂƚǁŽƵůĚĞdžƉůŽƌĞĂĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ƐďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶŝŶ ĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ ǁŝƚŚ ƉĂƉĞƌ DŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ŵĂŶLJŚĂĚďĞĞŶƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůůLJƚƌĂŝŶĞĚƐŽƚŚĞLJǁĞƌĞĐŽŶĨŽƵŶĚĞĚǁŝƚŚĂƵƐĞƌͲĐĞŶƚƌŝĐĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚdŚĞ ƵƐĞ ŽĨ ƵŶĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌ ĂŶĚ ǀĞƌLJ ĂŶĂůLJƟĐƚŽŽůƐǁĂƐĂŶŽƚŚĞƌĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƚŽƚŚĞĞdžƉĞƌƚƐǁŚŽ ǁĞƌĞ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŽ ĐůŽƐĞ ŝŶ ŽŶ ƉƌŽďůĞŵƐƵƐŝŶŐƉƌĂĐƟĐĂůŚĂŶĚƐͲŽŶĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĞƐWĞŶƌŽƐĞŵĂĚĞĂŶŝŶƚĞƌŝŵŶŽƚĞƚŽĨŽůůŽǁ
ƵƉ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌ ƉƌŽĮůĞƐ Ăƚ Ă ůĂƚĞƌ
ĚĂƚĞ ^ŚĞ ǁŽƵůĚ ŝŶǀŝƚĞ ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟǀĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐƚŽƚŚĞĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƚŽŚĞůƉƌĞƐĞƚĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ƐƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐŽĨĐƵƌƌĞŶƚŶĞĞĚƐďĞĨŽƌĞĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƟŶŐĨƵƚƵƌĞŶĞĞĚƐŶǀŽůǀŝŶŐŬĞLJ ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐ ĨƌŽŵ ŽƵƚƐŝĚĞ ƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ǁŽƵůĚ ŚĂǀĞ ƌĞĚŝƌĞĐƚĞĚ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůďŝĂƐĞƐĂŶĚŝŶĨƵƐĞĚŵŽƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌͲĚƌŝǀĞŶƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ ŝŶƚŽ ƚŚĞ ŝĚĞĂƟŽŶ ƐĞƐƐŝŽŶƐ dŚĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁŽƵůĚŚĂǀĞůĞĂƌŶĞĚĮƌƐƚŚĂŶĚǁŚĂƚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐĂƉƉƌĞĐŝĂƚĞĂŶĚĚĞŵĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂůĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶŌĞƌ ƐĞǀĞƌĂů ƵŶƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀĞĂƩĞŵƉƚƐ Ăƚ
ĚĞĮŶŝŶŐƚŚĞƵƐĞƌŽĨƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞWĞŶƌŽƐĞ ƐƚĞĂŵ ƉƌŽĐĞĞĚĞĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ tŚŝƚĞ ^ƉŽƚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚ ĞƐƉŝƚĞ ĞĂŐĞƌůLJ ĞdžƉĞƌŝŵĞŶƟŶŐǁŝƚŚĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐƚŽĂŶĐŚŽƌƚŚĞŝƌĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ƐƚĂƌƚĞĚ ƚŽ ůŽŽŬ ĨŽƌŽƚŚĞƌ ĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌ ĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƐ ƚŽ ďŽƌƌŽǁ ĨƌŽŵĂŐĂŝŶŶƚŚĞĨĂĐĞŽĨĂŵďŝŐƵŝƚLJĐƌĞĂƚĞĚďLJƚŚĞůĂĐŬŽĨĂĐůĞĂƌůLJĚĞĮŶĞĚƚĂƌŐĞƚŐƌŽƵƉƚŚĞLJĐŽŶǀĞƌŐĞĚŽŶƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚǁĞƌĞŶŽƚƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌůLJŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞŽƌǁĞůůͲĚĞĮŶĞĚdŚĞĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶŚĂĚƐŚŝŌĞĚĨƌŽŵĂĚĚƌĞƐƐŝŶŐƚŚĞƌĂƚŚĞƌĂŵďŝŐƵŽƵƐŽƌŝŐŝŶĂůƚŚƌĞĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽ ĞdžƉůŽƌŝŶŐ ŵŽƌĞ ƚĂŶŐŝďůĞ ĂŶĚ ĞĂƐLJ ƚŽĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĐĂů ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐ ĨŽƌ
26
ĐŽŶǀĞLJŝŶŐŶĞǁĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶŵĞƐƐĂŐĞƐŶ ƚŚĞ ĞŶĚ WĞŶƌŽƐĞ ĨĞůƚ ƚŚĞ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚŝĚĞĂƐ ƌĞŵĂŝŶĞĚ ǀĂŐƵĞ ĂŶĚ ŐĂǀĞ ůŝƩůĞ ƚŽĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚŝŶŐŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂďůĞĂĐƟŽŶƐdžŚĂƵƐƚĞĚ ĂŶĚ ůŽŽŬŝŶŐ Ăƚ ŵŝƐĚŝƌĞĐƚĞĚ
ŝĚĞĂƐ WĞŶƌŽƐĞ Ɛ ƚĞĂŵ ĚĞĐŝĚĞĚ ƚŽ ĞŶĚƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ĞĂƌůLJ ampŽĐƵƐŝŶŐ ŽŶ ƚŚĞƉŽƐŝƟǀĞ ƚŚĞ ĚĂLJ ŚĂĚ ŚĞůƉĞĚ ƐƉĂǁŶŵĂŶLJ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐ ƚŚĂƚ ŝŶ ƚƵƌŶ ŚĂĚ ůĞĚ ƚŽƵŶĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ŝĚĞĂ ƐƉŝůůŽǀĞƌƐ ǁŝƚŚ ŐƌĞĂƚƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů ƚŽ ďĞ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ ĨƵƌƚŚĞƌ ƐƵĐŚĂƐĂĚŽƉƟŶŐƉƌŝŶĐŝƉůĞƐŽĨŐĂŵŝĮĐĂƟŽŶĂŶĚƌĞƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌŝŶŐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƐ ĨŽƌ ĐůŝĞŶƚŵŽŶŝƚŽƌŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ĚĂƚĂ ĐŽůůĞĐƟŽŶ ŝƌĞĐƚĞĚƉƌŽƉĞƌůLJ ŵĂLJďĞ ĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ĐŽƵůĚ ĞdžƉĂŶĚƚŚĞƐĞ ĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƐ ŝŶ ůŝŐŚƚ ŽĨ ĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂůƉƌŽŵŽƟŽŶ
How do we restart if our first group discussions are uninspiringŌĞƌ ĂŶ ŚŽŶĞƐƚ ĚĞďƌŝĞĨ ƚŚĞ ƚĂƐŬ ĨŽƌĐĞĚĞĐŝĚĞĚ ƚŽ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞ Ă ƐĞĐŽŶĚǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐĞǀĞƌĂůǁĞĞŬƐůĂƚĞƌĂƐĂŵŽƌĞƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĚĚĞĞƉĚŝǀĞWĞŶƌŽƐĞĨĞůƚŐŝǀŝŶŐƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐƚŽŽŵƵĐŚ ůĞĞǁĂLJƌĞƐƵůƚĞĚ ŝŶŽǀĞƌůLJ ůŽŶŐ
ĂŶĚ ƵŶƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀĞ ĚĞďĂƚĞƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞƉƌŽũĞĐƚ Ɛ ĨŽĐƵƐ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ ďĂůĂŶĐĞǁĂƐŶĞĞĚĞĚďĞƚǁĞĞŶĞŶĂďůŝŶŐĐƌĞĂƟǀŝƚLJĂŶĚ ĚĞŵĂŶĚŝŶŐ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀŝƚLJ DŽƌĞŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚůLJ Ă ǁĞůůͲĚĞĮŶĞĚ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞǁŽƵůĚ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ Ă ƐƚƌŽŶŐ ĨŽƵŶĚĂƟŽŶ ĨŽƌĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐ ǁŝƚŚƐƵďƐƚĂŶĐĞtŚŝůĞƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞŵĂLJŽŌĞŶďĞĨƵnjnjLJ ƐŚĞĚŝĚŶƚǁĂŶƚĨƵnjnjLJƉůĂŶƐdŚŝƐƟŵĞ ƚŚĞǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉŽďũĞĐƟǀĞǁĂƐ
ĐůĞĂƌůLJ ĚĞĮŶĞĚ ŚĞƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŽĨ ĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚŽƌƐƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚ ƚŚĞŵŽƐƚ ŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƟŶŐ ƚŽƉŝĐ ůĞĂĚƐĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ ĮƌƐƚ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ĂŶĚ ƉƌĞƉĂƌĞĚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ŝŶƚĞŶĚĞĚ ƚŽ ĨŽĐƵƐ ƚĞĂŵƐWĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁĞƌĞƚĂƐŬĞĚƚŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚĞƚĂŝůĚĞƉƚŚ ĂŶĚ ĂĐƟŽŶĂďŝůŝƚLJ ƚŽ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƚŽƉŝĐƐŶ ĂĚĚŝƟŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƐĞĐŽŶĚ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ŚĂĚĂ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ŵŝdž ŽĨ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ǁŝƚŚ ĂŶĞŵƉŚĂƐŝƐ ŽŶ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶƐĞdžƉĞƌƚƐ WĞŶƌŽƐĞ ŚŽƉĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŶĞǁ ǀŽŝĐĞƐǁŽƵůĚĂĚĚĨƌĞƐŚƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞĂƐĞĚ ŽŶ ƉŽƐŝƟǀĞ ƉƌŝŽƌ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƐ
ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ǁĞƌĞ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞĚ ĂĐĐŽƌĚŝŶŐ ƚŽƚŚĞ tŽƌůĚ ĂĨĠ ĐŽŶĐĞƉƚ Ă ŵĞƚŚŽĚŽůŽŐLJĨŽƌ ĞīĞĐƟǀĞůLJ ĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƟŶŐ ůĂƌŐĞ ŐƌŽƵƉĚŝĂůŽŐƵĞŝŶĂǀĞƌLJůŝŵŝƚĞĚĂŵŽƵŶƚŽĨƟŵĞ
ĂĐŚ ƚĞĂŵ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐĞĚ ŽŶĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐŚŽƐĞŶƚŽƉŝĐƐ Ŷ Ă ĮƌƐƚ ϮϬͲŵŝŶƵƚĞ ƌŽƵŶĚ ĞĂĐŚƚĞĂŵƌĞƐƉŽŶĚĞĚƚŽĂƐĞƚŽĨŐŝǀĞŶƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽ ŇĞƐŚ ŽƵƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ƚŽƉŝĐ ǁŝƚŚĚĞƚĂŝůƐ ŌĞƌ ƚŚĞ ƌŽƵŶĚ Ăůů ďƵƚ ŽŶĞŵĞŵďĞƌŽĨĞĂĐŚƚĞĂŵƐǁŝƚĐŚĞĚƚŽĂŶŽƚŚĞƌƚĂďůĞƚŽĨŽƌŵŶĞǁŐƌŽƵƉƐdŚĞƌĞŵĂŝŶŝŶŐŵĞŵďĞƌƉůĂLJĞĚƚŚĞƌŽůĞŽĨƚŚĞƚĂďůĞŚŽƐƚƵƉĚĂƟŶŐŚĞƌŶĞǁƚĞĂŵŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐƵůƚƐŽĨƚŚĞ ĮƌƐƚ ƌŽƵŶĚ dŚĞ ŶĞǁ ƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌƐĐŽŵŵĞŶƚĞĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŝŽƌ ǁŽƌŬ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŶĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƚĞĚ ĨŽƌ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ϮϬ ŵŝŶƵƚĞƐ ŽŶƚŚĞ ƚŽƉŝĐDŝdžŝŶŐ ƚĞĂŵƐ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƌŽƵŶĚƐǁĂƐ ŝŶƚĞŶĚĞĚ ƚŽ Ɛƚ ŐƌŽƵƉ ƐŚĂƌŝŶŐƌĞĐŽŵďŝŶŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ǀĂůŝĚĂƟŶŐ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůŝĚĞĂƐ ŝƚĞƌĂƟǀĞůLJ ďƵŝůĚŝŶŐ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐƵůƚƐŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐ ƌŽƵŶĚ dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵƐ ƚŚĞŶƌĞƐŚƵŋĞĚ ĂŐĂŝŶ ƚŽ ƌĞƉĞĂƚ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐďĞĨŽƌĞ ŽƉĞŶůLJ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƟŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐƵůƚƐ ƚŽĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞdŽĐŽŶĐůƵĚĞƚŚĞǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉǁŝƚŚƚĂŶŐŝďůĞ
ŽƵƚƉƵƚ ƚŚĞ ĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚŽƌƐ ĂƐŬĞĚ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵƐƚŽ ƐĐƌŝƉƚ ƐƚŽƌŝĞƐ ďĂƐĞĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ŐƌŽƵƉƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶƐ dŚĞ ƐƚŽƌŝĞƐ ǁĞƌĞ ƵƐĞĚĂƐ ĂŶ ĂůƚĞƌŶĂƟǀĞ ƚŽ ampƵƚƵƌĞ dĞůůŝŶŐ ĂŶĚƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉŝŶŐǁŝƚŚWĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐĂŶĚĂƌŬ
27
ŽƌƐĞWƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞƐŶƚŚŝƐƐĞŶƐĞƚŚĞƐƚŽƌŝĞƐǁĞƌĞ ŶĂƌƌĂƟǀĞ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ŝŶ Ă ƌĞĂůͲǁŽƌůĚ ƐĞƫŶŐ WĞŶƌŽƐĞĐŽůůĞĐƚĞĚƚŚĞƐƚŽƌŝĞƐĂŶĚƚŚĂŶŬĞĚĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌŝŶƉƵƚƚǁĂƐŶŽǁƵƉƚŽŚĞƌƚĞĂŵƚŽŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞƚŚĞƐƚŽƌŝĞƐŝŶƚŽƚŚĞŝƌƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ
How can we turn experiences into lessonsWĞŶƌŽƐĞ ůĞĂŶĞĚĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ ŝŶŚĞƌĐŚĂŝƌĂŶĚĨŽĐƵƐĞĚŽŶ ƚŚĞƉŝůĞŽĨ ƐƚŽƌŝĞƐŽĐĐƵƉLJŝŶŐƚŚĞ ĨĂƌ ĐŽƌŶĞƌŽĨŚĞƌĚĞƐŬEŽǁ ƐĞǀĞƌĂůŵŽŶƚŚƐ ĂŌĞƌ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐ ƐŚĞ ǁĂƐĂďůĞƚŽĂƐƐĞƐƐƚŚĞŝƌŽƵƚĐŽŵĞŵŽƌĞĐůĞĂƌůLJdŚĞ ƐƚŽƌŝĞƐ ŚĞůƉĞĚ ƚƌĂƉ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ
ďĞůŝĞĨƐ ĂŶĚ ĂƐƐƵŵƉƟŽŶƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ǁŚĂƚǁĂƐ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŵ dŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐĂůƐŽ ŚĞůƉĞĚ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞ ƐĞĞĚůŝŶŐƐ ŽĨ ŝĚĞĂƐƚŚĂƚĐŽƵůĚƚƵƌŶŝŶƚŽĂĐƟŽŶampŽƌŝŶƐƚĂŶĐĞƚŚĞ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ ĐŚĂŶŶĞůƐ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶ ƐĂůĞƐ ĂŶĚ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ ŚĂĚĐůĞĂƌůLJ ƐĞĞŶ ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞŵĞŶƚƐ ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐŵŽƌĞ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌͲĨƌŝĞŶĚůLJ d ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐǁŝƚŚ ďĞƩĞƌ ƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝǀĞŶĞƐƐ ƚŽ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬ ĂŶĚ ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞĚ ĐĂƉĂďŝůŝƟĞƐ ƚŽĐŽůůĞĐƚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶƚĞƌƉƌĞƚ ŝƚ KŶĞ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ
ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ ƐLJƐƚĞŵ ǁĂƐ ƵŶĚĞƌŐŽŝŶŐĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ ƚŽ ŵŽƌĞ ĞīĞĐƟǀĞůLJ ƚĂƌŐĞƚƚŚĞ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂůŵĞƐƐĂŐĞƐůƚŚŽƵŐŚWĞŶƌŽƐĞĚŝĚŶŽƚŐĂŝŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞ
ŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ĂĐƚƵĂů ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƐĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂůĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶĂƐ ŚŽƉĞĚ ƐŚĞ ĨĞůƚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚŝŵƉƌŽǀĞŵĞŶƚƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ŝŶƚĞƌĨĂĐĞǁŽƵůĚ ƌĞƐƵůƚ ŝŶ ĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬ ƚŚĂƚ ĐŽƵůĚ ůĞĂĚƚŽ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐͶĐŽŶƚĞŶƚƚŚĂƚ ǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ ĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ŝŶ ĐŽͲŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶǁŝƚŚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐŶŚŝŶĚƐŝŐŚƚWĞŶƌŽƐĞǁŝƐŚĞĚƐŚĞŚĂĚƐĞƚ
ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐĞdžƉĞĐƚĂƟŽŶƐďĞƩĞƌĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐŝŶŚĞƌĞŶƚŝŶůŽŶŐͲƌĂŶŐĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĞĮŶŝŶŐ ĐůĞĂƌ ŽďũĞĐƟǀĞƐ ǁĂƐ ŽŶĞ ůĞƐƐŽŶůĞĂƌŶĞĚ^ŚĞĂůƐŽŬŶĞǁ ŝƚǁĂƐĚĂŶŐĞƌŽƵƐƚŽ ƌĞůLJ ƐŽůĞůLJ ŽŶ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů ĂƐƐƵŵƉƟŽŶƐĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞƐƚĂƚĞŽĨƚŚŝŶŐƐǁŚŝĐŚŵĂLJĐĂƵƐĞŐƌŽƵƉƐ ƚŽ ŵŝƐƐ ůĂƌŐĞƌ ƉĂƩĞƌŶƐ Žƌ ŝŶǀĞŶƚǁŝƚŚŽƵƚ ĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ ampŽƌ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ŵĞĞƟŶŐƐŚĞƌƚĞĂŵǁŽƵůĚƉƌĞƉĂƌĞŵŽƌĞƌĞĂůͲǁŽƌůĚĚĂƚĂĂƐ ŝŶƉƵƚĨŽƌƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĂƐǁĞůůĂƐĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞ ƟŵĞ ĂŌĞƌ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ƚŽǀĂůŝĚĂƚĞĂŶĚƐƵƉƉůĞŵĞŶƚƚĞĂŵŐƵĞƐƐĞƐ
ĮŶĂů ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐ ǁĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĂĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ ĐŽƵůĚ ŶŽƚ ďĞ ƐŽůǀĞĚŝŶ ĂŶLJ ƐŝŶŐůĞŵĞĞƟŶŐ ŶƐƚĞĂĚ WĞŶƌŽƐĞ ƐĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƐ ƌĞŵŝŶĚĞĚ ŚĞƌ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ŶĞǁŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ǁĞƌĞ ƵƐĞĨƵů ƚŽƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵ ŐƌŽƵƉ ĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟŽŶĂƌŽƵŶĚ ĐŽŵƉůĞdž ƉƌŽďůĞŵƐ ŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐǁŽƵůĚŶĞĞĚƚŽďĞĐĂƌƌŝĞĚĨŽƌǁĂƌĚĂƐŚĞƌƚĞĂŵ ŐĂŝŶĞĚŵŽƌĞ ŝŶƐŝŐŚƚ ĂŶĚ ĂĚǀĂŶĐĞĚƚŚĞŝƌ ŽǁŶ ƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ Ŷ ƚŚĞ ƐƉŝƌŝƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞƚŽƉŝĐ ƐŚĞ ĂůƐŽ ŶĞĞĚĞĚ ƚŽ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌ ŚĞƌĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ ǁŝƚŚ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐ ďŽƚŚ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ĂŶĚ ĞdžƚĞƌŶĂůĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŽĨƚŚŝƐĨŽƌǁĂƌĚͲůŽŽŬŝŶŐŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞtŝƚŚ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƚŚŽƵŐŚƚƐ ŝŶŵŝŶĚ WĞŶƌŽƐĞ
ƉŝĐŬĞĚ ƵƉ ƚŚĞ ƐƚŽƌŝĞƐ ĨƌŽŵ ŚĞƌ ĚĞƐŬ ĂŶĚǁĂůŬĞĚ ŽƵƚ ŽĨ ŚĞƌ ŽĸĐĞ dŚĞƌĞ ƐƟůů ǁĂƐĂ ůŽƚ ŽĨ ƵŶƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů ƉƌĞƐĞƌǀĞĚŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƉŝůĞ ŽĨ ƉĂƉĞƌ ƚƵĐŬĞĚ ƵŶĚĞƌ ŚĞƌĂƌŵ dŚŝƐ ŽŶůLJŵĞĂŶƚ ƚŚĂƚ ŚĞƌǁŽƌŬǁĂƐĨĂƌ ĨƌŽŵ ĮŶŝƐŚĞĚ WĞŶƌŽƐĞ ƐŵŝůĞĚ ĂƐ ƐŚĞĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞĚůLJ ǁĂůŬĞĚ ĚŽǁŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƌƌŝĚŽƌ ^ŚĞ ĂŶĚ ŚĞƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂĚ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ƚŽ ĞdžĐŝƚĞĂŶĚ ƐŚĞ ǁŽƵůĚ ǁŝŶ ƚŚĞŵ ŽǀĞƌ ŽŶĞ Ăƚ ĂƟŵĞƐƚĂƌƟŶŐƚŽĚĂLJ
28
tĞĂƌĞǁŚĂƚǁĞƚŚŝŶŬůůƚŚĂƚǁĞĂƌĞĂƌŝƐĞƐǁŝƚŚŽƵƌƚŚŽƵŐŚƚƐtŝƚŚŽƵƌƚŚŽƵŐŚƚƐǁĞŵĂŬĞƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚ
ͶBuddhaŶĚŝĂŶƐƉŝƌŝƚƵĂůƚĞĂĐŚĞƌdŚĞŚĂŵŵĂƉĂĚĂĐϯϬϬͿ
^ƚĂƌƚǁŚĞƌĞLJŽƵĂƌĞŝƐƚĂŶƚĮĞůĚƐĂůǁĂLJƐůŽŽŬŐƌĞĞŶĞƌ ďƵƚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJůŝĞƐƌŝŐŚƚǁŚĞƌĞLJŽƵĂƌĞ
ͶRobert CollierĨŽƵŶĚĞƌŽĨŽůůŝĞƌWƵďůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐdŚĞgtĂǁŽĨƚŚĞŝŐŚĞƌWŽƚĞŶƟĂůϭϵϰϳͿ
Ϯϵ
HOW TO STARTChaptER 2
Shortcuts
Letrsquos start with questions 30
Why a playbook 31
VTLKLAumlUP[PVUZ 35
Types of growth 36
Finding inspiration 38
Who leads change 39
Which industries 41
Viewpoint Revisionist 42
Sample problems 43
Learning process 45
WLJPAumlJVIQLJ[P]LZ 47
Starting midway 49
Teams or alone 51
Finding data 52
Case study 10 lessons 53
30
With the basic framework in mind how should you begin approaching your groups innovation process
tĞƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐŽŵĞďĂƐŝĐƉŽŝŶƚĞƌƐŽŶŚŽǁƚŽ ƵƐĞ ŝƚ ŝŶ LJŽƵƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ǁŽƌŬ dŚŝƐĐŚĂƉƚĞƌƐĞƌǀĞƐŵŽƌĞĂƐĂĐŽŶĐŝƐĞampYĂƚƚŚĞ ƐƚĂƌƚ ŽĨ LJŽƵƌŽǁŶƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĚƌĂǁŝŶŐ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ŽƚŚĞƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐĐŽŵŵŽŶůLJĂƐŬƵƐampŝƌƐƚ ǁĞ ĞdžƉůĂŝŶ ǁŚLJ ǁĞ ĐĂůů ŝƚ Ă
ƉůĂLJŬ WůĂLJŬƐ ĂƌĞ ƵƐĞĚ ŝŶ ŵĂŶLJƐƉŽƌƚƐĂŶĚǁĞĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĂƐĂĐŽŵƉĞƟƟǀĞƐƉŽƌƚƚŚĂƚƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚƚĞĂŵ ƚƌĂŝŶŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ƉƌĞƉĂƌĂƟŽŶ dŚĞŶƐůŝŐŚƚůLJ ƚŽŶŐƵĞ ŝŶ ĐŚĞĞŬ ǁĞ ŐŝǀĞ ƚŚĞƐŬĞƉƟĐƐϭϬǀĂůŝĚ ƌĞĂƐŽŶƐŶŽƚ ƚŽƵƐĞ ƚŚĞƉůĂLJŬtĞŽŶůLJǁĂŶƚƌĞĂĚĞƌƐǁŚŽǁŝůůŵĂƚĐŚŝŶƐƉŝƌĂƟŽŶǁŝƚŚƉĞƌƐƉŝƌĂƟŽŶtĞ ĂůƐŽ ĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞ ƚŚƌĞĞ ƉĂƚŚƐ ƚŽ
ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝŶ ĂŶ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ŶĂŵĞůLJĐŽƌĞŐƌŽǁƚŚŶĞǁŐƌŽǁƚŚĂŶĚĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ
Letrsquos start with questions
ŐƌŽǁƚŚdŚĞƐĞƉĂƚŚƐǁŝůůŚĞůƉĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞƚŚĞ ǀĂůƵĞ ĂŶĚ ŝŵƉĂĐƚ LJŽƵ ǁĂŶƚ ƚŽ ƐĞĞŽǀĞƌƟŵĞtĞƚŚĞŶŽƵƚůŝŶĞƐĞǀĞƌĂůĐŽŵŵŽŶƌŽůĞƐ
ĂŶĚ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ĐŽŶƚĞdžƚƐ ĨŽƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĞīŽƌƚƐ ƐƵŐŐĞƐƟŶŐ ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐ ǁĂLJƐ ĞĂĐŚƌŽůĞ ĐĂŶ ŐĂŝŶ ƚŚĞŵŽƐƚďĞŶĞĮƚǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ^ŽLJŽƵĐĂŶŐĞƚĂƐĞŶƐĞŽĨƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ
ŝŶĂĐƟŽŶƐĞǀĞƌĂůĂĐƚƵĂůĂƉƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐĂŶĚƉƌŽďůĞŵƐĂƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚŌĞƌ ƌĞĂĚŝŶŐ ƚŚŝƐ ĐŚĂƉƚĞƌ ƚƵƌŶ ƚŽ
ŚĂƉƚĞƌƐϯϰĂŶĚϱƚŽĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJĂĚĚƌĞƐƐƚŚĞŽƵƚƉƵƚĂŶĚƚŚĞŶĂƚƵƌĞŽĨŝĚĞĂLJŽƵǁŽƵůĚůŝŬĞ ƚŽ ƉƵƌƐƵĞ dŚĞŶ ƌĞůLJ ŽŶ ŚĂƉƚĞƌƐ ϲĂŶĚϳƚŽĨŽĐƵƐŽŶƚŚĞƵŶĚĞƌůLJŝŶŐƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĂŶĚŵŝŶĚƐĞƚ ƚŚĂƚ ĂůůŽǁƐ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƚLJƉĞƐ ŽĨŝĚĞĂƐƚŽŇŽƵƌŝƐŚƌĞƉĞĂƚĞĚůLJ
31
Ŷ ƐƉŽƌƚƐ Ă ƉůĂLJŬ ŝƐ Ă ŶŽƚĞŬĐŽŶƚĂŝŶŝŶŐƚŚĞĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶƐĂŶĚĚŝĂŐƌĂŵƐŽĨ Ăůů ƚŚĞ ƉŽƐƐŝďůĞ ƉůĂLJƐ ĂŶĚ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĞƐƵƐĞĚ ďLJ Ă ƚĞĂŵ ƚŚůĞƚĞƐ ƐƚƵĚLJ ĂŶĚŵĞŵŽƌŝnjĞ ƚŚĞ ƉůĂLJŬ ďĞĨŽƌĞ ƚŚĞŝƌƐĞĂƐŽŶďĞŐŝŶƐ^ŝŵŝůĂƌůLJ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝŶĂŶŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ
ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐ Ă ŚŝŐŚͲƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƚŽǁŽƌŬ ƐĞĂŵůĞƐƐůLJ ƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ƚŽ ĚĞůŝǀĞƌ ŽŶĂ ŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂtŚĞƌĞ ĚŽ LJŽƵ ŐŽ ĨŽƌ LJŽƵƌĐŽĂĐŚŝŶŐampŽƌLJŽƵƌƚƌĂŝŶŝŶŐĂŶĚƟƉƐampŽůůŽǁŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƐƉŝƌŝƚ ŽĨ ƚŚŝƐ ƐƉŽƌƚƐ
ĂŶĂůŽŐLJ ƚŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬŝƐLJŽƵƌƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƚŽŚĞůƉĐŽĂĐŚLJŽƵĂŶĚĨŽƌLJŽƵƚŽůĞĂƌŶŚŽǁƚŽĐŽĂĐŚŽƚŚĞƌƐŝŶƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶdŚŝƐ ƉůĂLJŬ ŝƐ ĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ĨŽƌ LJŽƵ ĂƐ
ƚŚĞLJƐĂLJŝŶƐƉŽƌƚƐƚŽƚĂŬĞƚŚĞĮĞůĚDŽƐƚŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚůLJ ŝƚŝƐĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŽďĞĚŽĂďůĞŶŽƚŚĞƌ ĂƐƉĞĐƚ ŽĨ Ă ƉůĂLJŬ ŝƐ
ĂďŽƵƚ ůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ƉůĂLJ WůĂLJ ŝƐŽŌĞŶ ŽǀĞƌůŽŽŬĞĚ Žƌ ĚŝƐŵŝƐƐĞĚ ǁŚĞŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŶŐĂŶĚĂƐĞŶƐĞŽĨĐƌĞĂƟǀŝƚLJĂŶĚĨƵŶŝƐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚƚŽƌĞůĞĂƐĞŝŶŚŝďŝƟŽŶƐĂŶĚƐĞĞƚŚŝŶŐƐŝŶĂĨƌĞƐŚůŝŐŚƚ
Why a playbook
32
10 Reasons Not to Use This Playbook
ϭ zŽƵǁŝůůŶŽƚĮŶĚĂƐ
ŝŶŐůĞƌĞĂĚLJͲƚŽͲƵƐĞŝĚĞĂ
Ϯ hƐŝŶŐƚŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬ
ŝƐŚĂƌĚǁŽƌŬ
ϯ dŚĞƉůĂLJŬĚŽĞƐ
ŶŽƚŬŶŽǁLJŽƵƌƉƌŽďůĞŵ
ϰ zŽƵǁŝůůŵĂŬĞLJŽƵƌƐĞ
ůĨĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƐƵŶĐŽŵĨŽƌƚĂďůĞ
ϱ dŚĞƌĞŝƐŶŽŐƵĂƌĂŶƚ
ĞĞĚƐƵĐĐĞƐƐŝŶƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶ
ŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
ϲ dŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬǁŽŶ
ƚƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĂƋƵŝĐŬĮdž
ϳ ƚŝƐůĞŶŐƚŚLJ
ϴ ^ŽŵĞĂĐĂĚĞŵŝĐƐǁĞƌĞŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚ
ϵ ƚǁŽŶƚŚĞůƉLJŽƵƉ
ƌĞĚŝĐƚƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ
ϭϬzŽƵĐĂŶƚĐŚĞĂƚĂƚ
ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
33
1 You will not find a single ready-to-use idea ĞŶĞƌĂƟŶŐ LJŽƵƌ ŶĞdžƚ ďŝŐ ŝĚĞĂ ŝƐ LJŽƵƌũŽďdŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬŝƐŚĞƌĞƚŽƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĂŶĚŐƵŝĚĞLJŽƵŝŶƚŚŝƐĚĂƵŶƟŶŐƚĂƐŬďLJŐŝǀŝŶŐLJŽƵ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĂů ƚŽŽůƐ ĂŶĚ ƐƵŐŐĞƐƚĞĚ ƐƚĞƉƐƚŽǁĂƌĚƐŵĂŬŝŶŐLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƌĞĂů
2 Using this playbook is hard work ƐĂǁŽƌŬŬŝƚŝƐŶŽƚĐĂůůĞĚĂtKZltŬĨŽƌ ŶŽƚŚŝŶŐ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝƐ ŚĂƌĚ ǁŽƌŬdŚĞƌĞƌĞĂůůLJĂƌĞŶŽƐŚŽƌƚĐƵƚƐƚŽďŝŐŝĚĞĂƐŶƐƚĞĂĚ ǁĞ ǁŝůů ƐŚŽǁ LJŽƵ ŚŽǁ ŽƚŚĞƌƐŚĂǀĞƵƐĞĚƚŚĞƚŽŽůƐƚŽĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĂŶĚƐŽůǀĞƚŚĞŝƌ ƉƌŽďůĞŵƐ ƐŽ LJŽƵ ĐĂŶ ďĞŶĞĮƚ ĨƌŽŵŵƵůƟƉůĞƌĞĂůͲǁŽƌůĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐĂŶĚƟƉƐ
3 The playbook does not know your problem zŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ƚŽ ŬŶŽǁ LJŽƵƌ ƉƌŽďůĞŵ dĂŬĞƚŚĞ ƚŽŽůƐ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚ ŚĞƌĞ ĂŶĚ ŵĂŬĞƚŚĞŵ LJŽƵƌ ŽǁŶ ĚĂƉƚ ƚŚĞŵ ƵƐĞ ƚŚĞŵ
ĐƌĞĂƟǀĞůLJ ĂŶĚŵĂŬĞƚŚĞŵǁŽƌŬĨŽƌLJŽƵdŚĞƚŽŽůƐŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŽǁŽƌŬŝŶĚŝǀĞƌƐĞĐŽŶƚĞdžƚƐĂŶĚĨŽƌĚŝǀĞƌƐĞŐƌŽƵƉƐ
4 You will make yourself and others uncomfortable ŝŐŝĚĞĂƐŽŌĞŶƌĞƋƵŝƌĞďŝŐĐŚĂŶŐĞƐǁŚŝĐŚĐĂŶĨĞĞůƐĐĂƌLJampŽƌƚƵŶĂƚĞůLJ ƚŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬŐŝǀĞƐ LJŽƵ ƚŚĞ ƚŽŽůƐ ƚŽ ŵĂŬĞ LJŽƵƌ ĐĂƐĞĂŐĂŝŶƐƚ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐŝƐƚĂŶĐĞ zŽƵ ĐĂŶ ƵƐĞ ƚŚĞƚŽŽůƐ ƚŽ ƌĞĂƐŽŶ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ŝŶĞǀŝƚĂďŝůŝƚLJ ŽĨĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ ĂŶĚ ƚŽ ƐŚŽǁ ǁŚLJ ƚŚĞ ĐŚĂŶŐĞƐĂƌĞŶŽƚŽŶůLJũƵƐƟĮĞĚďƵƚŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌLJ
5 There is no guaranteed success in radical innovation hƐŝŶŐ ƚŚŝƐ ƉůĂLJŬ ǁŝůů ŶŽƚ ĐŚĂŶŐĞƚŚŝƐ ĨĂĐƚ KŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŶƚƌĂƌLJ ƚŚĞ ŬƵƌŐĞƐLJŽƵ ƚŽ ĨĂŝů ĞĂƌůLJĂŶĚ ƚŽ ĨĂŝů ŽŌĞŶLJ ĞdžƉĞƌŝŵĞŶƟŶŐ ǁŝƚŚ ŝĚĞĂƐ LJŽƵ ǁŝůůĞǀĞŶƚƵĂůůLJ ĮŶĚ Ă ďŝŐ ĂŶĚ ƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵůŽŶĞ dŽ ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ ĨĂŝů ŵŽƌĞ ĞĂŐĞƌůLJ ƚŚĞƉůĂLJŬ ŽīĞƌƐ Ă ůŽǁͲĐŽƐƚ ůŽǁͲƌŝƐŬĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚƚŽƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞĂŶĚƚĞƐƚ
6 This playbook wonrsquot provide a quick fix dŚĞŵŽƌĞƌĂĚŝĐĂůLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂŝƐƚŚĞďŝŐŐĞƌĐŚĂŶŐĞƐĂƌĞƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚĂŶĚƚŚĞůŽŶŐĞƌŝƚǁŝůůƚĂŬĞƚŽĞdžĞĐƵƚĞtŝƚŚƚŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬLJŽƵĐĂŶƚĂŬĞƚŚĞĮƌƐƚĐŽŶĐƌĞƚĞƐƚĞƉƐƚŽǁĂƌĚƐŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƟŶŐLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƐƐŽŽŶĂƐƚŚŝƐĂŌĞƌŶŽŽŶƚĂŵŝŶŝŵƵŵLJŽƵǁŝůůŬŶŽǁǁŚĂƚƚŽĚŽŶĞdžƚĂŶĚƌŽƵŐŚůLJŚŽǁůŽŶŐŝƚǁŝůůƚĂŬĞƚŽĚŽŝƚ
7 It is lengthy tĞ ĚŽŶƚ ĞdžƉĞĐƚ LJŽƵ ƚŽ ǁĂĚĞ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƚŚĞ ƉůĂLJŬ ĨƌŽŵ ĐŽǀĞƌ ƚŽ ĐŽǀĞƌ zŽƵĐĂŶŐƌĂďǁŚĂƚLJŽƵŶĞĞĚĂƐLJŽƵŶĞĞĚ ŝƚůůƚŽŽůƐĂƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŽƐƚĂŶĚĂůŽŶĞ
8 Some academics were involved DĂŶLJ ŽĨ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƚŽŽůƐ ǁĞƌĞ ƚĂƵŐŚƚ ĂŶĚƚĞƐƚĞĚĂƚƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐKƵƌƚĞĂŵƌĞŐƵůĂƌůLJĐƌŽƐƐĞƐ ĂĐĂĚĞŵŝĐ ĂŶĚ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ƐĞƫŶŐƐǁŝƚŚ ĞĂƐĞ ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ŝĚĞĂůůLJ ŐŽŽĚ ƚŚĞŽƌLJĂŶĚŐŽŽĚƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐŚŽƵůĚŐŽŚĂŶĚŝŶŚĂŶĚ
34
9 It wonrsquot help you predict the future gtŝŬĞ ƚŚĞ ǁĞĂƚŚĞƌ ƌĞƉŽƌƚ LJŽƵ ĐĂŶ ƚƌƵƐƚĂ ĨŽƌĞĐĂƐƚ ŽŶůLJ ƐŽŵƵĐŚďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ƚŚŝŶŐƐĐŚĂŶŐĞ tŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ĐĂŶ ĚŽ ŚŽǁĞǀĞƌ ŝƐƚŽƉůĂŶĂŚĞĂĚĂŶĚƉƌĞƉĂƌĞLJŽƵƌƐĞůĨ dŚĞƚŽŽůƐ ŝŶ ƚŚŝƐ ƉůĂLJŬ ĐĂŶ ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ ŽƵƚǁŝƚŚ ƚŚŝƐ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ ĂŶĚ ĂƌĞ ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĂůůLJĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ƚŽ ďĞ ŇĞdžŝďůĞ ĂƐ Ă ƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ
10 You canrsquot cheat at innovation zŽƵŵĂLJďĞƚĞŵƉƚĞĚƚŽƚĂŬĞƐŚŽƌƚĐƵƚƐŽƌĨĂŬĞLJŽƵƌĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐdĂŬŝŶŐƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƌŽĂĚŽƌƌĞƉĞĂƟŶŐŽůĚƌŽƵƟŶĞƐǁŽŶƚƚĂŬĞLJŽƵĂŶLJ ĨƵƌƚŚĞƌ ŝŶ LJŽƵƌ ƉƵƌƐƵŝƚ ŽĨ ĂŶLJƚŚŝŶŐƌĂĚŝĐĂůdŚĞƐĂŵĞŚŽůĚƐƚƌƵĞĨŽƌĂĚŽƉƟŶŐǁŚĂƚ Ɛ ƉŽƉƵůĂƌ dŚŝƐ ŝƐ ǁŚĞƌĞ LJŽƵ ǁŝůůŶĞĞĚ Ă ůŽƚ ŽĨ ƐĞůĨͲĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĞ ĂŶĚ ƐĞůĨͲƌĞŇĞĐƟŽŶƚ ƐĂůůƵƉƚŽLJŽƵ
ZampgtdKEWhich reasons(s) resonated
most with you Why
35
Strategic foresightampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ŝƐ ƚŚĞ ĂďŝůŝƚLJ ƚŽ ƉůĂŶ ĨŽƌƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƚ ŝƐ Ă ŵŝdž ŽĨ ŵŝŶĚƐĞƚ ĂŶĚŵĞƚŚŽĚŽůŽŐLJ Ă ǀŝĞǁ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĂŶĚƚŚĞƉƌĂĐƟĐĞŽĨůŽŽŬŝŶŐĨŽƌǁĂƌĚŶƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐƵƐĞƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐ
ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƚŽŚĞůƉƚŚĞŵĚĞǀĞůŽƉůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵƉůĂŶƐĨŽƌŶĞǁďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŐƌŽǁƚŚWĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞƉƌĞŵŝƐĞ ŝƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ŽƵƚĐŽŵĞƐ ĐĂŶ ďĞŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞĚďLJŽƵƌĐŚŽŝĐĞƐŝŶƚŚĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚ ŬĞLJ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞ ĞdžŝƐƚƐ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ
ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ĂŶĚ ƉƌĞĚŝĐƟŽŶ ampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂĐŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ŝƐĂŵďŝŐƵŽƵƐ ĂŶĚ ĂŝŵƐ ƚŽ ƉƌĞƉĂƌĞĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶͲŵĂŬĞƌƐĨŽƌŚŽǁƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞŵĂLJĐŚĂŶŐĞ Ŷ ĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚ ƉƌĞĚŝĐƟŽŶƐ ƚƌLJ ƚŽƌĞŵŽǀĞƵŶĐĞƌƚĂŝŶƚLJ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞďLJĨŽƌĞĐĂƐƟŶŐǁŚĂƚǁŝůů ŚĂƉƉĞŶ ďĂƐĞĚ ŽŶƚŚĞůŝŬĞůŝŚŽŽĚŽĨĐĞƌƚĂŝŶĞǀĞŶƚƐ
InnovationampƵŶĚĂŵĞŶƚĂůůLJ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝƐ ĂďŽƵƚĮŶĚŝŶŐďƵŝůĚŝŶŐĂŶĚƚĂŬŝŶŐĂŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƚŽ ƚŚĞ ŵĂƌŬĞƚƉůĂĐĞ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂůůŽǁƐĂůů ƚLJƉĞƐ ŽĨ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐͶďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĞƐŶŽŶƉƌŽĮƚƐ ĂŶĚ ŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚ ŝŶƐƟƚƵͲƟŽŶƐͶƚŽ ĐƌĞĂƚĞ ŶĞǁ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ ďƵŝůĚƐƚƌŽŶŐĞƌůŽLJĂůƚLJĂŵŽŶŐĐƵƌƌĞŶƚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐĂŶĚƐƚĂLJƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚŝŶƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚDŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĐĂŶ ĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞ
ĞŝƚŚĞƌƚŚĞŽƵƚƉƵƚŽƌƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŶƚŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬ ǁĞ ĨŽĐƵƐ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽŝŵƉƌŽǀĞƚŚĞŽƵƚƉƵƚ
Radical innovationZĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƚĂŬĞƐ ĚĂŝůLJ ZΘĂŶĚ ŶĞǁ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĞīŽƌƚƐĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ƐƚĞƉ ĨƵƌƚŚĞƌ ZĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝƐ Ă ǁĂLJ ŽĨ ŝŵĂŐŝŶŝŶŐ ďŝŐ ŝĚĞĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ
What definitions are we using
ƵůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ ĐĂŶ ĐƌĞĂƚĞ ďŝŐ ŝŵƉĂĐƚ ƚ ŝƐĂďŽƵƚ ĐŚĂŶŐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ŵĂŐŶŝƚƵĚĞ ŽĨ LJŽƵƌĞīŽƌƚĞŝƚŚĞƌŝŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨŚŽǁLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĞƐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ Žƌ ŝŶ ƚĞƌŵƐ ŽĨƚŚĞ ŝŵƉĂĐƚ LJŽƵǁŽƵůĚ ůŝŬĞ ƚŽ ƐĞĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚtŚŝůĞ ƐĐŚŽůĂƌƐ ŵĂLJ ƌĞĨĞƌ ƚŽ ƌĂĚŝĐĂů
ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ďLJ Ă ǀĂƌŝĞƚLJ ŽĨ ƐLJŶŽŶLJŵƐͶƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ĚŝƐƌƵƉƟǀĞ ďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ŽƌƌĞǀŽůƵƟŽŶĂƌLJͶĂůů ƚŚĞ ƚĞƌŵƐ ƐŚĂƌĞ ĂĐŽƌĞĚĞĮŶŝƟŽŶZĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝƐŶŽƚŝŶĐƌĞŵĞŶƚĂůĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŝŶƐƚĞĂĚŝƚŝƐĂŶĞǁƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŽƌƐŽůƵƟŽŶƚŚĂƚĐƌĞĂƚĞƐĂŶ ĞŶƟƌĞůLJ ŶĞǁ ĂŶĚ ŽŌĞŶ ƵŶĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚŵĂƌŬĞƚ Ŷ ƐŽŵĞ ĐĂƐĞƐ ƚŚĞ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƉƵƐŚĞƐƚŚĞůŝŵŝƚƐŽĨƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐŝŶǀĞŶƟŽŶƐĂŶĚ ŵĂLJ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞ ƚŚĞ ĐƌĞĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ŶĞǁƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽďĞďƵŝůƚ
36
What do you see as the most rational path to innovation What does your leadership team believe
hůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ LJŽƵƌ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ŚĂƐ ĂǀŝĞǁƉŽŝŶƚŽŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶdŚĞƌĞĂƌĞƚŚƌĞĞďĂƐŝĐ ǁĂLJƐ ĂŶ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ĐĂŶ ŐƌŽǁƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĐŽƌĞ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ŶĞǁŐƌŽǁƚŚĂŶĚĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐŐƌŽǁƚŚĂĐŚƚLJƉĞǁŝůůĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞƚŚĞĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĂŶĚƚŽŽůƐĨŽƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
Core growthdŚĞŐŽĂůŽĨŽƌĞƌŽǁƚŚŝƐƚŽƐƚƌĞŶŐƚŚĞŶƚŚĞĐŽƌĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĂŶĚĞŶƚĞƌƉƌŝƐĞŵŝƐƐŝŽŶďLJ ĐƌĞĂƟŶŐ ĂŶĚ ĚĞůŝǀĞƌŝŶŐ ƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵůŶĞǁ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐ ĂŶĚ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ Įƚ ƚŚĞĞdžŝƐƟŶŐƉŽƌƞŽůŝŽdŚŝƐƉĂƚŚ ŝƐŐĞŶĞƌĂůůLJĨŽĐƵƐĞĚŽŶƐŚŽƌƚͲƚĞƌŵŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐ
New growthdŚĞŐŽĂůŽĨEĞǁƌŽǁƚŚŝƐƚŽĞdžƉĂŶĚƚŚĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐďLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐŶĞǁŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶƐŽƌĮŶĚŝŶŐŶĞǁŵĂƌŬĞƚƐĐŽŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƌLJƚŽ ĞdžŝƐƟŶŐ ĞīŽƌƚƐ dŚŝƐ ƉĂƚŚ ƚĞŶĚƐ ƚŽĨŽĐƵƐŽŶŵŝĚͲƚĞƌŵŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐ
Emerging growthdŚĞ ŐŽĂů ŽĨ ŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ ƌŽǁƚŚ ŝƐ ƚŽĐĂƉŝƚĂůŝnjĞ ŽŶ ĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ ĂƌĞĂƐ ĂŶĚ ďŝŐďĞƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ ŵĂLJ ďĞ ŝŶ ĞŶƟƌĞůLJ ŶĞǁ ŽƌƵŶƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ƐĞĐƚŽƌƐ dŚŝƐ ƉĂƚŚ ƉƵƌƐƵĞƐůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵ ƉŽƐƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐ ǁŝƚŚ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŚŝŐŚƌĞǁĂƌĚZĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƌĞůŝĞƐ ŵŽƐƚ ŽŶ
ŵĞƌŐŝŶŐƌŽǁƚŚďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞĂŝŵŝƐƚŽŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞƚŚĞŐƌĞĂƚĞƐƚŝŵƉĂĐƚdŚŝƐƉĂƚŚŝƐ ŶŽƚ ŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌŝůLJ Ă ŚŝŐŚͲƌŝƐŬ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ĂůƚŚŽƵŐŚ ďŝŐ ďĞƚƐ ŝŶ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ŵĂLJďĞ ŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚ ŶƐƚĞĂĚ ƌŝƐŬ ŝƐ ŵŝŶŝŵŝnjĞĚďLJ ĞǀĂůƵĂƟŶŐ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƉŽƐƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐƐLJƐƚĞŵĂƟĐĂůůLJ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŶ ďLJ ƚĂŬŝŶŐĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞ ĂŶĚ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĞĚ ĂĐƟŽŶ zŽƵŬŶŽǁǁŚĂƚLJŽƵĂƌĞĚŽŝŶŐŶĞdžƚĞǀĞŶ ŝĨƚŚĞĞŶĚƌĞƐƵůƚƐĂƌĞŶŽƚĞdžĂĐƚůLJĐůĞĂƌLJĞƚ
What type of growth do we seek
ZampgtdKEWhich growth path does your
work focus most on Why
37ĚĂƉƚĞĚĨƌŽŵƌŽǁƚŚŐĞŶĚĂgtŝŵŝƚĞĚ
ŽƌĞƌŽǁƚŚ
EĞǁƌŽǁƚŚ EĞǁƌŽǁƚŚ
ŵĞƌŐŝŶŐƌŽǁƚŚ
gtŽŶŐƚĞƌŵďĞƚƐ^ƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐǀĞŶƚƵƌĞƐampƵƚƵƌĞŝŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚƐƌŽƐƐƐĞĐƚŽƌƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐŚŝƉƐ
ƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŵŽĚĞůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĚũĂĐĞŶƚƐĞĐƚŽƌĚŝƐƌƵƉƟŽŶEĞǁŵĂƌŬĞƚĞŶƚƌLJEĞǁĐĂƉĂďŝůŝƟĞƐ
EƵƌƚƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞĞĐŽƐLJƐƚĞŵEĞǁƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐĂŶĚƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐEĞǁĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĂĐƋƵŝƐŝƟŽŶKƉĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůĞŶŚĂŶĐĞŵĞŶƚ
38
Where should we look for ideas VTH`AumlUK`VYPUP[PHSMVJZPUthree simple places
Organizational startŶ ŵĂŶLJ ĐĂƐĞƐ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ Žƌ ZΘ ƚĞĂŵƐĂƌĞ ĂůƌĞĂĚLJ ǁŽƌŬŝŶŐ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ ĂŶ ĞdžŝƐƟŶŐůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵ ƌŽĂĚŵĂƉ zŽƵ ƚŚƵƐ ŬŶŽǁǁŚŝĐŚ ĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ŶĞĞĚƐ ĂŶĚŽƌƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ĂƌĞĂƐ ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚ ƉƌŝŽƌŝƟĞƐƚŽ LJŽƵƌ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ampŽƌ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ĂƐ ĂĮŶĂŶĐŝĂůƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐŵĂŶĂŐĞƌ LJŽƵŬŶŽǁLJŽƵŵƵƐƚ ƐƚĂƌƚ ĞdžƉůŽƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ŽĨ ƌĞƚĂŝůďĂŶŬŝŶŐ
Internal startŶ ŽƚŚĞƌ ĐĂƐĞƐ ĂŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŽƌ Žƌ ƚĞĂŵůĞĂĚĞƌ ďĞŐŝŶƐ ǁŝƚŚ Ă ƚŽƉŝĐ ĂƌĞĂ ƚŚĂƚƐŽƵŶĚƐƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐzŽƵŵĂLJĂůƌĞĂĚLJŚĂǀĞ
ƐŽŵĞ ĞdžƉĞƌƟƐĞ ŝŶ Ă ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ ƐƉĂĐĞ ŽƌĨĞĞů ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůůLJ ŵŽƟǀĂƚĞĚ ƚŽ ƉƵƌƐƵĞ ĂŶĂƌĞĂ ŵŽƌĞ ĚĞĞƉůLJ zŽƵ ƐƚĂƌƚ ǁŝƚŚ LJŽƵƌŐƵƚ ĂŶĚ ƐŝŵƉůLJ ĂĚũƵƐƚ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞƌĞ ampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ Ă ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů ƉĂƐƐŝŽŶĂďŽƵƚŚŝŐŚͲƚĞĐŚŚLJĚƌŽƉŽŶŝĐĨĂƌŵŝŶŐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵĚůŝŬĞƚŽƉƵƌƐƵĞ
External startKƚŚĞƌ ƟŵĞƐ LJŽƵŵĂLJ ŚĂǀĞ ƚŚĞ ĨŽƌƚƵŶĞƚŽƐƚĂƌƚĚĞŶŽǀŽǁŝƚŚŽƵƚĂŶLJĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞĞdžƉĞĐƚĂƟŽŶŽƌ ƚĞĂŵŐŽĂů zŽƵ ĐĂŶ ƚŚĞŶůŽŽŬ ĨŽƌ ŶƵŐŐĞƚƐ ŽĨ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝĚĞĂƐĂƌŽƵŶĚ LJŽƵ ĂŶĚŵĂŶLJ ƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ ĂƌĞ ƌŝĐŚĨŽƌĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌLJdŚĞŵŽƐƚĐŽŵŵŽŶƐŽƵƌĐĞƐĨŽƌ ĮŶĚŝŶŐ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ŶĞĞĚƐ ĂƌĞ ƐƚĂƟƐƟĐƐĮĞůĚ ƌĞƉŽƌƚƐ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƐĐĞŶĂƌŝŽƐ ŚŝƐƚŽƌLJ ĂŶĚ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ ŶŝĐŚĞƐ dŚĞƐĞ ƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ ĂƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚŝŶƚŚĞĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚƚĂďůĞ
Where do we find inspiration
ĂƚĞŐŽƌLJ džĂŵƉůĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ
^ƚĂƟƐƟĐƐ
gt WƌŽĚƵĐƚƐĂůĞƐĨŽƌĞĐĂƐƚƐgt dƌĞŶĚĚĂƚĂgt ^ŝŵƵůĂƟŽŶƐgt ĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƌĞƉŽƌƚƐ
^ƚĂƟƐƟĐƐ
gt hƐĞƌĞdžƉĞƌƚŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐgt ^ŽĐŝĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƵƐĂŐĞgt ampŽĐƵƐŐƌŽƵƉƐgt ƚŚŶŽŐƌĂƉŚLJ
ampƵƚƵƌĞƐĐĞŶĂƌŝŽƐ
gt ZŽůĞͲƉůĂLJŝŶŐgt ĞůƉŚŝŵĞƚŚŽĚgt DŽǀŝĞƐgt ^ĐŝĞŶĐĞĮĐƟŽŶ
ŝƐƚŽƌLJgt ƌĐŚŝǀĞƐgt ĂƐĞƐƚƵĚŝĞƐgt ŽĐƵŵĞŶƚƐ
Common ŶŝĐŚĞƐ
gt ĂƌůLJĂĚŽƉƚĞƌƐgt dƌĞŶĚƐĞƩĞƌƐgt gtĞĂĚƵƐĞƌƐgt dŚŽƵŐŚƚůĞĂĚĞƌƐgt tĞĂŬƐŝŐŶĂůƐ
ϯϵ
Multiple innovation rolesmdashor what you might call personality typesmdashcoexist within an organization at any given time
Who leads change in innovation
ŶĂĚĚŝƟŽŶ ŝƚŚĞůƉƐ ƚŽŬŶŽǁŚŽǁƚŚĞǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ ƌŽůĞƐ ŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƚǁŝƚŚ ŽŶĞ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ tŚŝůĞĞĂĐŚƌŽůĞŚĂƐĂŶŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƉĂƌƚƚŽƉůĂLJ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƉƵƌƐƵŝƚ ĨŽƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĞĂĐŚƌŽůĞƚĞŶĚƐƚŽƐĞĞƚŚŝŶŐƐǀĞƌLJĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚůLJ ĐĞƌƚĂŝŶ ĂŵŽƵŶƚ ŽĨ ĐƌĞĂƟǀĞ ĨƌŝĐƟŽŶ ŝƐŶĂƚƵƌĂůƐLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŝƐƉƵƚŝŶƚŽƐƚƌĞƐƐĨƵůƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶƐ LJŽƵĐĂŶŚĞůƉ ƚŚĞŽƚŚĞƌ ƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ǀĂůƵĞ ŽĨďƌŝŶŐŝŶŐŵƵůƟƉůĞŵŝŶĚƐƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ
tĞ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚ Ɛŝdž ĐŽŵŵŽŶ ƌŽůĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ LJŽƵŽŌĞŶ ĮŶĚ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ ĂŶ ZΘ ĞŶĚĞĂǀŽƌ ŽƌŶĞǁ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ǀĞŶƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĞ WŝŽŶĞĞƌ WƌŽďůĞŵ^ŽůǀĞƌ ŶĂůLJƐƚWƌŽĚƵĐĞƌ ZĞďĞůĂŶĚWƌĂŐŵĂƟƐƚĂĐŚƌŽůĞƚĂŬĞƐĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŽ
ƚŚĞ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĂŶĚ ƚŚƵƐǀĂůƵĞƐĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ŽƵƚƉƵƚ tŚŝůĞ ŽŶĞ ƌŽůĞ ŵĂLJĚŽŵŝŶĂƚĞLJŽƵƌƵƐƵĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌ LJŽƵ ůŝŬĞůLJƐŚĂƌĞƚƌĂŝƚƐĂĐƌŽƐƐƐĞǀĞƌĂůƌŽůĞƐƐ ĂŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌ ůŽŽŬ ƚŽ
ďĂůĂŶĐĞ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƌŽůĞƐ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵůƐŽ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌ ƚŚĞ ƌŽůĞƐ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ LJŽƵƌďƌŽĂĚĞƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐŽƚŚĂƚLJŽƵŵĂLJƐŚĂƉĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐĂůůLJ
dWZKhZĚĞĂƐŵĂLJƐƚĂƌƚǁŝƚŚŽŶĞƉĞƌƐŽŶďƵƚƚŚĞLJƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĂƚĞĂŵƚŽĚĞůŝǀĞƌ zŽƵƌĂůůLJŽƚŚĞƌƐƚŽĂŐŽŽĚĐĂƵƐĞĂŶĚƚĂŬĞƉƌŝĚĞŝŶƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞďĞŚŝŶĚƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŵƵƐƚďĞĂƐŚĂƌĞĚŵŝŶĚƐĞƚͻĞŐŝŶĂƚŚĂƉƚĞƌϰŽŶKƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJͻǀĂŶŐĞůŝnjĞƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐŵĞƚŚŽĚ
dZgtzŽƵƉƵƚƚŚĞƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶzŽƵĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƌŽƵƟŶĞƐĂƐŶĞŐŽƟĂďůĞĂŶĚŽŌĞŶŚĞůƉŽƚŚĞƌƐƚŽƚŚŝŶŬŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƚŚĞƉƌŽǀĞƌďŝĂůďŽdžtŚĂƚŵĂŶLJŵŝƐƐŝƐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵŬŶŽǁƚŚĞƐLJƐƚĞŵĐůŽƐĞůLJƐŽLJŽƵŬŶŽǁǁŚĞƌĞƚŽďĞŶĚƌƵůĞƐͻƵŵƉĮƌƐƚƚŽŚĂƉƚĞƌϳŽŶsŝƐŝŽŶͻdžƚĞŶĚƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌƚŽŽů
dWZDd^dtŚĂƚ ƐŽŵĞ ŵŝŐŚƚ ĐĂůů ůĂnjLJ LJŽƵ ĐĂůů ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ zŽƵǀĂůƵĞƚĂŬŝŶŐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚĞĸĐŝĞŶƚƉĂƚŚƚŽƚŚĞĚĞƐŝƌĞĚŽƵƚĐŽŵĞĂŶĚLJŽƵŚĞůƉŽƚŚĞƌƐƚŽŐĞƚƚŚĞĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůƐĚŽŶĞǁŝƚŚŽƵƚĐƌĞĂƟŶŐĞdžƚƌĂǁŽƌŬŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĐŽŵĞƐĚŽǁŶƚŽĞdžĞĐƵƟŽŶͻ^ŬŝŵƚŚĞƟƉƐĮƌƐƚĨŽƌĞĂĐŚŵĞƚŚŽĚͻtŽƌŬǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƚĞŵƉůĂƚĞƐ
dWKEZzŽƵ ďƵƌŶ ƚŽ ĮŶĚ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŶƋƵĞƌ ƵŶĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌĞĚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐtŚĂƚŵĂƩĞƌƐŵŽƐƚĂƌĞĨĂƐƚƌĞƐƵůƚƐzŽƵ ƚƌƵƐƚǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ĐĂŶ ƐĞĞ ĂŶĚ ĨŽůůŽǁ LJŽƵƌ ŐƵƚƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ƚƌŝĂů ĂŶĚ ĞƌƌŽƌ zŽƵ ůĞĂƌŶ ďĞƐƚ ďLJ ĚŽŝŶŐĂŶĚƐŚŽǁŝŶŐŽƚŚĞƌƐͻ^ĐĂŶƚŚĞĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐŐŝǀĞŶƚŽƐƉĂƌŬŝĚĞĂƐͻĚŽƉƚƚŚĞZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚ
dWZKgtD^KgtsZzŽƵ ůŽǀĞĂŐŽŽĚĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞĂŶĚǁŽŶƚďĂĐŬĚŽǁŶƵŶƟů LJŽƵ ƐŽůǀĞ ŝƚ zŽƵƌĞ ŐŽŽĚ Ăƚ ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJŝŶŐĂƐƐƵŵƉƟŽŶƐĐŽŶƐƚƌĂŝŶƚƐĂŶĚĂůƚĞƌŶĂƟǀĞƐ^ŵĂƌƚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐ ƐĞƫŶŐ ŐŽĂůƐ ƐŽ LJŽƵ ĐĂŶŶĂƌƌŽǁLJŽƵƌŽƉƟŽŶƐǁŝƐĞůLJͻĂŝŶĨĂƐƚĐŽŶƚĞdžƚǁŝƚŚŚĂƉƚĞƌϯŽŶWĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞͻĚŽƉƚƚŚĞŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚ
dEgtz^dzŽƵ ůŝŬĞ ƚŽ ƐĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĨĂĐƚƐ ĮƌƐƚ ďĞĨŽƌĞ ũƵŵƉŝŶŐ ƚŽĐŽŶĐůƵƐŝŽŶƐ ƐŬŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƌŝŐŚƚ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ŵĂƩĞƌǁŚĞŶ ŐĞƫŶŐ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ƚƌƵƚŚ zŽƵ ďĞůŝĞǀĞ ĞīĞĐƟǀĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƚĂŬĞƐ ĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĞ ĂŶĚ LJŽƵ ĂƉƉƌĞĐŝĂƚĞƐLJƐƚĞŵĂƟĐƌŝŐŽƌͻgtĞĂƌŶŚŽǁƚŽůĂLJĞƌƚŚĞampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚŵĞƚŚŽĚƐͻDĂƐƚĞƌƚŚĞtŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚ
40
41
This playbook can be applied easily to different types of organizations and contexts
dŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŚĂǀĞ ďĞĞŶ ĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞůLJĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŽĂĚĚƌĞƐƐƚŚĞĨƵŶĚĂŵĞŶƚĂůƐŽĨƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝŶĂďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƐĞƫŶŐĂŶĚŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶƚĞƐƚĞĚǁŝƚŚŵƵůƟƉůĞĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐĂŶĚŝŶƐƟƚƵƟŽŶƐĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚŶŽƚŚĞƌǁŽƌĚƐĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞŚĂƐƐŚŽǁŶ
ƵƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĂŶLJŽŶĞ ĐĂŶƵƐĞ ƚŚĞƐĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐdŚĞLJ ĂƌĞ ŶŽƚ ůŝŵŝƚĞĚ ƚŽ Ă ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ŽƌƚLJƉĞŽĨŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶŶ ĂĚĚŝƟŽŶ ƚŚĞ ůĞƐƐŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ
ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ƉůĂLJŬ ĂƌĞĚƌĂǁŶ ĨƌŽŵ Ă ǀĂƌŝĞƚLJ ŽĨ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĞƐ ĂŶĚĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ zŽƵ ĐĂŶ ůĞĂƌŶ ĨƌŽŵ ŽƚŚĞƌƐŽƵƚƐŝĚĞLJŽƵƌĮĞůĚǁŚŝĐŚŵĂLJŚĞůƉLJŽƵƐĞĞLJŽƵƌŽǁŶĞīŽƌƚĨƌŽŵĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĂŶŐůĞ
Industry sectorgtŝŬĞ ƚŚĞ ďĞƐƚ ƚŽŽůƐ ŽƵƌ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĂƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ƚŽ ďĞ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJͲĂŐŶŽƐƟĐ zŽƵĚŽŶƚĨŽůůŽǁƚŚĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJLJŽƵĨŽůůŽǁƚŚĞŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ tĞǀĞ ƐĞĞŶ ŽƵƌ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƵƐĞĚ ŝŶ ŚĞĂůƚŚĐĂƌĞ ĂƵƚŽŵŽƟǀĞ ŚĞĂǀLJŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĞƐ ĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌ ĞůĞĐƚƌŽŶŝĐƐƐŽŌǁĂƌĞ ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂů ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ ĂŶĚ ŵĂŶLJŽƚŚĞƌ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂů ƐĞĐƚŽƌƐ ĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ƚŽ ďĞŇĞdžŝďůĞƚŚĞƐĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĂŶĚŚĞůƉ
Which contexts or industries work best
ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞLJŽƵƌĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶͲŵĂŬŝŶŐƌĞŐĂƌĚůĞƐƐŽĨLJŽƵƌĐŽŶƚĞŶƚĨŽĐƵƐ
Type of organizationampƌĂŶŬůLJ ǁĞǀĞ ƐĞĞŶ ƚŚĞ ŐƌĞĂƚĞƐƚ ƵƐĞďLJ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ ^ŽŵĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ ǁĂŶƚƚŽ ĨŝŶĚ ƚŚĞ ŶĞdžƚ ďŝŐ ŝĚĞĂ ƐŽŵĞ ǁĂŶƚƚŽ ƌĞŶĞǁ Žƌ ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƉƌĂĐƚŝĐĞŽĨ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŝŽŶ KƚŚĞƌ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƚŝŽŶƐͶŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐ ƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚŝĞƐ ŶŽŶƉƌŽĨŝƚƐŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚĂů ĂŐĞŶĐŝĞƐ ĂŶĚĨŽƵŶĚĂƚŝŽŶƐͶŚĂǀĞĂůƐŽĨŽƵŶĚďŽƚŚƚŚĞŵŝŶĚƐĞƚ ĂŶĚ ŵĞƚŚŽĚŽůŽŐLJ ǀĂůƵĂďůĞ ƚŽƚŚĞŝƌ ŵŝƐƐŝŽŶ tĞ ǁŝůů ƚƌLJ ƚŽ ŚŝŐŚůŝŐŚƚĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐĨƌŽŵĂůůƚLJƉĞƐŽĨŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƚŝŽŶƐŝŶƚŚĞƉůĂLJŬ
Company sizeDĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ Ăƚ ůĂƌŐĞ ĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚĞĚĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƟŽŶƐ ƐŵĂůů ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĞƐ ^DƐͿĂŶĚ ƐƚĂƌƚƵƉƐ ŚĂǀĞ Ăůů ƵƐĞĚ ĂŶĚ ƚĞƐƚĞĚƚŚĞƐĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŝŶƚŚĞůĂƐƚĨĞǁLJĞĂƌƐtŚŝůĞƚŚĞ ůĞǀĞů ŽĨ ďƵƌĞĂƵĐƌĂĐLJ ĂŶĚ ĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐŵĂLJĚŝīĞƌďLJĐŽŵƉĂŶLJƐŝnjĞƚŚĞƵŶĚĞƌůLJŝŶŐ ŶĞĞĚ ƚŽ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ Ă ĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĞŽĨŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƌĞŵĂŝŶƐƚŚĞƐĂŵĞ
42
Country and cultureKƵƌ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞůLJ ĐƌŽƐƐŐĞŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐ ďŽƵŶĚĂƌŝĞƐ WůĂLJŬĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ ĂŶĚ ƟƉƐ ĐŽŵĞ ĨƌŽŵ ampŝŶůĂŶĚĂŶĚ ƚŚĞhŶŝƚĞĚ ^ƚĂƚĞƐͶĂƐǁĞůů ĂƐ ĨƌŽŵŵƵůƟƉůĞ ƉůĂĐĞƐ ŝŶ ƵƌŽƉĞ ĂƐƚ ƐŝĂĨƌŝĐĂĂŶĚŶĚŝĂKƵƌŐŽĂůŝƐƚŽŵĂdžŝŵŝnjĞůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐ ƌĞĐŽŐŶŝnjŝŶŐ ďŽƚŚ ƐŝŵŝůĂƌŝƟĞƐĂŶĚĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐĂĐƌŽƐƐĐƵůƚƵƌĞƐ
I am a social scientist in Finland and our usual Scandinavian planning principle is to plan rigorously and execute once After working with several American colleagues from Silicon Valley I have discovered an unexpected difference in their approach to problem-solving
In Silicon Valley they tend to L_LJ[L AumlYZ[ YL]PZL HUK [OLUexecute again While I can see the
value in rapid learning cycles at the same time this approach creates a headache for Finns who have already settled contentedly and deliberately ^P[O[OLPYAumlYZ[JYLH[PVU
As we work with more foreign innovators Finnish managers should be exposed earlier to other ways of workingmdashultimately leading to better harmony and making iteration a welcome part of our planning process
VIEWPOINT | Revisionist thinking
43
What types of problems are other companies and innovation managers addressing with the methods in this playbook
ĞƌĞ Ɛ ƚŚĞ ƋƵŝĐŬ ĂŶƐǁĞƌ ƐŽŵĞ ŐƌŽƵƉƐƐƚĂƌƚ ǁŝƚŚ Ă ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐ ŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ŽƌƉƌŽďůĞŵ ŝŶŵŝŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ŐƌŽƵƉƐǁĂŶƚ ƚŽĞdžƉůŽƌĞ Ă ƌĂŶŐĞ ŽĨ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƉŽƐƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐdŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĂƌĞĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞůLJŇĞdžŝďůĞ^ĞĞ ǁŚĂƚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƚĞĂŵƐ ŚĂǀĞ ĚŽŶĞ
ĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚ
Global forestry companyΗtĞ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŽ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ ĂŶĞŶƟƌĞůLJŶĞǁƉƌŽĚƵĐƚĐŽŶĐĞƉƚďĂƐĞĚŽŶĂƌĞĐĞŶƚůLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚǁŽŽĚͲďĂƐĞĚŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůtĞ ĂƉƉůŝĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŽ ƚĂŶŐŝďůLJĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƉƌŽĮůĞŽĨƚŚĞƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ ƐĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽďƵŝůĚĂƵƐĞƌͲĚƌŝǀĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶΗ
International paper producerΗtĞǁĂŶƚĞĚƚŽƚŚŝŶŬŽƵƚŽĨƚŚĞďŽdžĂŶĚĨŝŶĚŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĨŽƌĞdžŝƐƚŝŶŐĂƐƐĞƚƐ dŚĞƚŽŽůƐ ŐĂǀĞ ƵƐ Ă ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĚ ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŽ ŝŶǀĞŶƚŝŶŐ ŶĞǁ ƵƐĞƐ ĨŽƌ ĂŶ ŽďƐŽůĞƚĞƉƌŽĚƵĐƚŝŽŶ ĐĂƉĂĐŝƚLJ Ŷ Ă ŚĞĂǀŝůLJĐĂƉŝƚĂůͲŝŶƚĞŶƐŝǀĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJƐƵĐŚĂƐŽƵƌƐŝƚ ƌĞĂůůLJ ƉĂŝĚ ŽĨĨ ƚŽ ďĞ ĐƌĞĂƚŝǀĞ ǁŝƚŚĂůƚĞƌŶĂƚŝǀĞ ƵƐĞƐ ĨŽƌ ŽƵƌ ƐůĂĐŬ ĐĂƉĂĐŝƚLJĂŶĚƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐΗ
National media companyΗtŝƚŚ ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ǁĞ ƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ŽƵƌĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƐůŽŶŐͲƌĂŶŐĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĂŶĚ ĂůŝŐŶĞĚ ŵƵůƟƉůĞ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂůƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƐŝŶƚƌĞŶĚͲĮŶĚŝŶŐdŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐůĞƚ ƵƐ ũŽŝŶƚůLJ ĚĞƐŝŐŶ ĂŶĚ ĞĸĐŝĞŶƚůLJĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚĞƚŚĞŶĞǁƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƐĂŵŽŶŐĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐĂŶĚĞdžƚĞƌŶĂůĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƚŽƌƐΗ
What types of problems are addressed
Software developer ΗtĞ ǁĂŶƚĞĚ ƚŽ ĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĐŚĂŶŐĞƐƐŽǁĞĐŽƵůĚƉƌĞƉĂƌĞŽƵƌƐĞůǀĞƐ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞƐĞ ĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ ĂŶĚ ĐƌĂŌƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐ ĨŽƌ ŽƵƌ ĐůŝĞŶƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƐƵƉƉŽƌƚƚŚĞ ŶĞǁ ƌŽƵƟŶĞƐ ĂŶĚ ǁĂLJƐ ŽĨ ǁŽƌŬŝŶŐŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞtĞ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŽďƵŝůĚŐƌŽƵŶĚĞĚƐĐĞŶĂƌŝŽƐŽĨ ĨƵƚƵƌĞǁŽƌŬĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚƐ ĂŶĚ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐ ŚĞůƉŝŶŐ ƵƐĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞƚŚĞĂĐƟŽŶƐƚŽƚĂŬĞƚŽĚĂLJƚŽďĞƌĞĂĚLJĨŽƌƚŽŵŽƌƌŽǁΗ
Training service providerΗtĞ ďĞůŝĞǀĞ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ŝƐ Ă ƐŬŝůů ĂŶĚ ĂǁĂLJŽĨƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐƚŚĂƚĐĂŶďĞůĞĂƌŶĞĚtĞƵƐĞĚƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŝŶŽƵƌĂŶŶƵĂůƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ƚŽ ŐĂƚŚĞƌ ŝŶƉƵƚ ĨƌŽŵŽƵƌ ĞdžƚĞƌŶĂů ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ĂŶĚ ŐƵŝĚĞ ƚŚĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ Ă ĮǀĞͲLJĞĂƌ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJƌŽĂĚŵĂƉΗ
44
Marketing departmentΗtĞ ŶĞĞĚĞĚ ƚŽ ƌĞďƌĂŶĚ ŽŶĞ ŽĨ ŽƵƌŵŽƌĞ ĐŽŶǀĞŶƟŽŶĂů ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ ůŝŶĞƐ ŵĂŬĞŝƚ ΖŐƌĞĞŶĞƌΖƚŽĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌƐƌĂŶĚƐĂƌĞĂůůĂďŽƵƚ ĐƌĞĂƟŶŐ ƉĞƌĐĞƉƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ŚĞŶĐĞŝŶŇƵĞŶĐŝŶŐƉĞŽƉůĞdŚŝƐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚďŽƚŚĂƐƚƌŽŶŐĞdžĐŝƟŶŐĂŶĚďĞůŝĞǀĂďůĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƐǁĞůůĂƐĂĐŽŚĞƌĞŶƚĂŶĚƚĂƌŐĞƚĞĚĐŽŵŵƵͲŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ dŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŚĞƌĞŚĞůƉĞĚƵƐĂĐŚŝĞǀĞũƵƐƚƚŚĂƚΗ
Federal governmental agencyΗKŶĞ ŽĨ ŽƵƌ ůĂƌŐĞƐƚ ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐǁĂƐ ĚƌĂǁŝŶŐ ƚŽ ĂŶ ĞŶĚ tĞ ŶĞĞĚĞĚ ƚŽĮŐƵƌĞ ŽƵƚ ŚŽǁ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌůĚ ĂŶĚ ŶĂƟŽŶĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐŚĂĚĐŚĂŶŐĞĚƐŝŶĐĞŝƚ ƐƚĂƌƚĞĚ ƐŽ ǁĞ ĐŽƵůĚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ ŶĞǁƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞƐ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚ ƚŚĂƚǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ ƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚ ĨŽƌ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐ
ŶĞĞĚƐ dŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŵĂĚĞ ŝƚ ĞĂƐLJ ƚŽŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐǁŝƚŚĞdžƉĞƌƚƐĂŶĚƚĞƐƚǁŚĞƚŚĞƌ ƚŚĞ ŶĞǁ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐǁĞƌĞĨĂƌͲƌĞĂĐŚŝŶŐĂŶĚĂŵďŝƟŽƵƐĞŶŽƵŐŚΗ
Strategic RampD consortiumΗZΘ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ ƚĂŬĞ ƉůĂĐĞ ŝŶ ŚŝŐŚůLJŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĞĚ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƟĞƐ ŽĨ ĂĐĂĚĞŵŝĐĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞĂŶĚŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚĂůĂĐƚŽƌƐtĞƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŽ ĐƌĞĂƚĞ ĂŶĚ ƉůĂŶ ĂũŽŝŶƚƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŐĞŶĚĂƚŚĂƚŝƐĨĂƌͲƌĞĂĐŚŝŶŐLJĞƚĂĐƟŽŶĂďůĞƚǁĂƐŚĞůƉĨƵůƚŽŵĂƉĂŶĚƚŚĞŶ ƌĞͲƉŽƐŝƟŽŶ ŽƵƌ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐďĂƐĞĚŽŶƚŚĞŝƌĮƚǁŝƚŚŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞŐŽĂůƐΗ
International steel companyΗtĞ ĞƐƉĞĐŝĂůůLJ ůŝŬĞĚ ƚŚĞ ǀŝƐƵĂůŝnjŝŶŐ ĂŶĚĨĂƐƚ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉŝŶŐ ǁŝƚŚ ƐŝŵƉůĞ ŵŽĐŬƵƉƐǁŚŝĐŚŚĂƐĂīĞĐƚĞĚŽƵƌŵŽĚĞŽĨŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶ
ĂŶĚ ŽƉĞŶĞĚ ŶĞǁ ǁĂLJƐ ƚŽ ƚŚŝŶŬ ĂŶĚĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚĞŝĚĞĂƐƚŽŽƚŚĞƌƐΗNational IT companyΗdŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŚĂǀĞ ďĞĞŶ ƵƐĞĚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞĂŶŶƵĂůƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŽĨƐŽŵĞŽĨŽƵƌĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƐĂƌĞĂƐ dŚĞLJ ŚĂǀĞ ďĞĞŶ ƵƐĞĨƵů ǁŚĞŶƉƌŽĚƵĐŝŶŐƐƵƉƉŽƌƟŶŐ ŝĚĞĂƐĂŶĚŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůĨŽƌďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŵŽĚĞůĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨŶĞǁƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐůůŝŶĂůůĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƚŚĞƐĞƐĂŵƉůĞƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶƐĂƐŚŝŶƚƐĨŽƌLJŽƵƌŽǁŶƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐΗ
dŚĞŐƵŝĚĞůŝŶĞƐƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚŝŶƚŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬǁŝůů ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ ůĞĂƌŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƌĞ ƉƌŝŶĐŝƉůĞƐŶĞĞĚĞĚ ƚŽ ƵƐĞ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĐŽƌƌĞĐƚůLJ ĂŶĚĂƐǁŝƚŚŵŽƐƚƉůĂŶƐLJŽƵƚŚĞŶŶĞĞĚƚŽƚƌĂŶƐůĂƚĞƚŚĞŵŝŶƚŽLJŽƵƌĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ
45copy ϮϬϭϮtŝůůŝĂŵŽĐŬĂLJŶĞΘdĂŵĂƌĂĂƌůĞƚŽŶ
^ŽŵĞ ƚĞĂŵƐ ƉƌĞĨĞƌ ƚŽ ĨŽůůŽǁ Ă ƐƚĞƉͲďLJͲƐƚĞƉ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐ ĐŽŶƐŝƐƚĞŶƚƌĞƐƵůƚƐ tĞ ŚĂǀĞ ĂĚŽƉƚĞĚ ůŽŽŵ ƐdĂdžŽŶŽŵLJŽĨůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐŽƵƚĐŽŵĞƐƚŽĞŶƐƵƌĞƚŚĂƚ LJŽƵƌ ƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ ĂĚǀĂŶĐĞƐ ƚŽ ŚŝŐŚĞƌůĞǀĞůƐ Ăƚ ĞĂĐŚ ƐƚĞƉ ĂƐ ǁĞůů ĂƐ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞƐƐĞǀĞƌĂůŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐůŽŽƉƐ
What is the learning process
1
ltEKtgt
KDWZE^KE
WWgtdKE
Egtz^^
^zEd^^
sgthdKE
ĚĞĮŶĞƌĞƉĞĂƚƌĞĐŽƌĚůŝƐƚƌĞĐĂůůŶĂŵĞƌĞůĂƚĞƵŶĚĞƌůŝŶĞ
ƚƌĂŶƐůĂƚĞƌĞƐƚĂƚĞĚŝƐĐƵƐƐĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞƌĞĐŽŐŶŝnjĞĞdžƉůĂŝŶĞdžƉƌĞƐƐŝĚĞŶƟĨLJůŽĐĂƚĞƌĞƉŽƌƚƌĞǀŝĞǁƚĞůů
ŝŶƚĞƌƉƌĞƚĂƉƉůLJĞŵƉůŽLJƵƐĞĚĞŵŽŶƐƚƌĂƚĞĚƌĂŵĂƟnjĞƉƌĂĐƟĐĞŝůůƵƐƚƌĂƚĞŽƉĞƌͲĂƚĞƐĐŚĞĚƵůĞƐŚŽƉƐŬĞƚĐŚ
ĚŝƐƟŶŐƵŝƐŚĂŶĂůLJnjĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƟĂƚĞĂƉƉƌĂŝƐĞĐĂůĐƵůĂƚĞĞdžƉĞƌŝŵĞŶƚƚĞƐƚĐŽŵƉĂƌĞĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚĐƌŝƟĐŝnjĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵŝŶƐƉĞĐƚĚĞďĂƚĞŝŶǀĞŶƚŽƌLJƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƌĞůĂƚĞƐŽůǀĞĞdžĂŵŝŶĞĐĂƚĞŐŽƌŝnjĞ
ĐŽŵƉŽƐĞƉůĂŶƉƌŽƉŽƐĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĨŽƌŵƵůĂƚĞĂƌƌĂŶŐĞĂƐƐĞŵďůĞĐŽůůĞĐƚĐŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƚĐƌĞĂƚĞƐĞƚƵƉŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞŵĂŶĂŐĞƉƌĞƉĂƌĞ
ũƵĚŐĞĂƉƉƌĂŝƐĞĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƌĂƚĞĐŽŵƉĂƌĞǀĂůƵĞƌĞǀŝƐĞƐĐŽƌĞƐĞůĞĐƚĐŚŽŽƐĞĂƐƐĞƐƐĞƐƟŵĂƚĞŵĞĂƐƵƌĞ
2
34
5
6
7
8 9
10
111213 14
1516
46
^ƚĞƉ gtĞĂƌŶŝŶŐKďũĞĐƟǀĞ DĞƚŚŽĚ ŽƚŽWĂŐĞ
1 ĞĮŶĞƚŚĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐŝŶLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐƉĂĐĞ ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ ϲϭ
2 ZĞĐĂůůƚŚĞŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂůƉĂƩĞƌŶƐĨŽƌƚŚĞƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ WƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐ ϳϬ
3 gtŽĐĂƚĞƚŚĞƉĂƩĞƌŶƐŝŶƟŵĞŶŽƟŶŐŽƚŚĞƌƌĞůĂƚĞĚŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞƐ ĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐ ϴϭ
4 ĚĞŶƟĨLJĂŶLJŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐŝŶƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ ĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĐƐ ϵϰ
5 ^ŬĞƚĐŚƚǁŽƵƐĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞƐƚŽĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŶĞĞĚƐ ampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌ ϭϬϯ
6 ƌĂŵĂƟnjĞƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŶĞĞĚŝŶĂƌĞĂůĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ ampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐ ϭϭϰ
7 ŝĂŐƌĂŵĂƌĂŶŐĞŽĨƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐƚŽĮŶĚĂŐĂƉŝŶĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŶĞĞĚ tŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐ ϭϮϳ
8 ŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƚĂƋƵŝĐŬƉŚLJƐŝĐĂůƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞŽĨLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶ WĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐ ϭϯϲ
9 ZĞͲĐƌĞĂƚĞLJŽƵƌƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞĨŽĐƵƐŝŶŐŽŶƚŚĞĐŽƌĞďĞŶĞĮƚ ĂƌŬŽƌƐĞWƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞ ϭϰϱ
10 WůĂŶĂƉĂƚŚŽĨĂĐƟŽŶƚŽĂĚĚƌĞƐƐƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŶĞĞĚ ŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƐ ϭϰϵ
11 ƵĚŐĞĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐĂŶĚĨƌŝĞŶĚƐĂƐƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐ ƵĚĚLJŚĞĐŬƐ ϭϲϴ
12 ZĂƚĞLJŽƵƌƐĞůĨĂŶĚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĨŽƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉĂƉƟƚƵĚĞ sK^ƚĂƌƐ ϭϳϴ
13 sĂůƵĞŚŽǁLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĐĂŶƐƵƉƉŽƌƚLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂ ƐŐƌŽǁƚŚ ƌŽǁĚůŽǀĞƌƐ ϭϴϴ
14 ^ĞůĞĐƚĂƐŚŽƌƚĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶĂďŽƵƚLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶ sŝƐŝŽŶ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ ϮϬϯ
15 ^ĐŽƌĞLJŽƵƌƐŽůƵƟŽŶ ƐǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚĨŽƌŝƚƐǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů ZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚ Ϯϭϯ
16 ŚŽŽƐĞLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂ ƐŵŽƐƚĞĸĐŝĞŶƚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƉĂƚŚƚŽƐƵĐĐĞƐƐ WĂƚŚĮŶĚĞƌƐ ϮϯϬ
47
tŚĂƚƐƚŚĞďŝŐƉŝĐƚƵƌĞїƉĂŐĞϲϭ
tŚĂƚǁĂƐĚŽŶĞŝŶƚŚĞƉĂƐƚїƉĂŐĞϳϬ
tŚĂƚƉĂƩĞƌŶƐĐĂŶǁĞĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞїƉĂŐĞϴϭ
tŚĂƚĐŚĂŶŐĞƐŝŶƉĞŽƉůĞŵĂƩĞƌїƉĂŐĞϵϰ
tŚŽĂƌĞŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐїƉĂŐĞϭϬϯ
ŽǁĐĂŶǁĞĞdžĐŝƚĞŽƵƌĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞїƉĂŐĞϭϭϰ
tŚĞƌĞŝƐƚŚĞƵŶƚĂƉƉĞĚŵĂƌŬĞƚїƉĂŐĞϭϮϳ
tŚĂƚŝƐŽƵƌĮƌƐƚƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞїƉĂŐĞϭϯϲ
tŚĂƚŝƐĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůĂďŽƵƚŽƵƌŝĚĞĂїƉĂŐĞϭϰϱ
tŚĂƚĂĐƟŽŶƐŚŽƵůĚǁĞĚŽŶĞdžƚїƉĂŐĞϭϰϵ
ƌĞ LJŽƵ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ŽŶ Ă ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ ĂƐƉĞĐƚŽĨ ĂƉƌŽďůĞŵtŚŝůĞ Ăůů ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĂƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŽǁŽƌŬĂƐĂƐLJƐƚĞŵLJŽƵĐĂŶũƵŵƉƚŽĂƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌŵĞƚŚŽĚĂƐŶĞĞĚĞĚďĂƐĞĚŽŶƚŚĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶĨĂĐŝŶŐLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŶŽǁ
Can we start with a specific objective
48
ŽǁĚŽǁĞĮŶĚŐŽŽĚƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐїƉĂŐĞϭϲϴ
tŚĂƚůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉĚŽǁĞŶĞĞĚїƉĂŐĞϭϳϴ
ŽǁĐĂŶǁĞƵƐĞŽƵƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬїƉĂŐĞϭϴϴ
tŚĂƚŝƐĂŐŽŽĚǀŝƐŝŽŶїƉĂŐĞϮϬϯ
ŽǁĐĂŶǁĞƚĞƐƚŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶїƉĂŐĞϮϭϯ
ŽǁĐĂŶŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƵĐĐĞĞĚїƉĂŐĞϮϯϬ
ϰϵ
ĨLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŝƐŵŝĚǁĂLJƚŚƌŽƵŐŚĂƉƌŽũĞĐƚLJŽƵ ĐĂŶ ƵƐĞ ƚŚĞ ƋƵŝĐŬ ƐĞůĨͲĂƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚŚĞƌĞ ƚŽĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞLJŽƵƌŶĞdžƚƐƚĞƉŽƌ ƌĞͲĐŚĞĐŬƚŚĂƚĂůůŐĂƉƐŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶƐƵĸĐŝĞŶƚůLJĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞĚ dŚŝƐ ĞǀĂůƵĂƟŽŶ ǁŝůů ůĞƚ LJŽƵũƵŵƉƚŽƚŚĞƐƉĞĐŝĮĐŵĞƚŚŽĚƐͿLJŽƵŶĞĞĚInstructionsWůĞĂƐĞ ŵĂƌŬ ŽŶĞ y ĨŽƌ ĞĂĐŚ ƌŽǁ ƚŽĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐůĞǀĞůŽĨŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞŝŶĂĚĚƌĞƐƐŝŶŐƚŚĞƐƉĞĐŝĮĐƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ
^ĐŽƌŝŶŐŬĞLJϭƉŽŝŶƚсŵŝƐƐŝŶŐŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞϮƉŽŝŶƚƐсůŝŵŝƚĞĚŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞϯƉŽŝŶƚƐсĂĚĞƋƵĂƚĞŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞϰƉŽŝŶƚƐсŐŽŽĚŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞϱƉŽŝŶƚƐсĞdžĐĞůůĞŶƚŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ
Where do we start midway in a project
ZĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚdĞĂŵƐůĞǀĞůŽĨŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ
ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ
džĂŵƉůĞĐůĞĂƌůLJƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ X
Ă tĞĐĂŶŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƚŚĞŵĂŝŶŝƐƐƵĞƐŝŶŽƵƌƚŽƉŝĐ
ďtĞĐĂŶĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞƚŚĞƉƌĞĐĞĚĞŶƚƐŽĨƚŚŝƐŝĚĞĂƚŚĂƚŚĂǀĞƐƵĐĐĞĞĚĞĚŽƌĨĂŝůĞĚŝŶŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƌĞůĂƚĞĚŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĞƐĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĞƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐ
Đ tĞŬŶŽǁǁŚŝĐŚĞǀĞŶƚƐĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌŝĚĞĂƐƚŚĂƚŚĂǀĞŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞĚƚŽĚĂLJ ƐƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐŽĨƚŚŝƐƚŽƉŝĐ
Ě tĞŬŶŽǁǁŚŽƚŚĞůĂƌŐĞƐƚĂŶĚŽƌŵŽƐƚƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŐƌŽƵƉŝƐŝŶŽƵƌƚĂƌŐĞƚĨƵƚƵƌĞŚŽƌŝnjŽŶ
Ğ tĞĐĂŶŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƚŚĞƐŚĂƌĞĚǀĂůƵĞƐĂŶĚďĞůŝĞĨƐŽĨƚŚŝƐƐƉĞͲĐŝĮĐƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŐƌŽƵƉ
Ĩ tĞŚĂǀĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚĂĐŽŵƉƌĞŚĞŶƐŝǀĞƉƌŽĮůĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂͿŽĨŽƵƌƚĂƌŐĞƚĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌ
ŐtĞŬŶŽǁŚŽǁƚŚĞƵŶŝƋƵĞŶĞĞĚƐŽĨƚŚĞƚĂƌŐĞƚĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌǁŝůůďĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĨƌŽŵƚŽĚĂLJ ƐƵƐĞƌ ƐŽŶĂͿŽĨŽƵƌƚĂƌŐĞƚĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌ
Ś tĞĐĂŶƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂĐůĞĂƌƵƐĞĐĂƐĞƚŚĂƚƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐƚŚĞƵƐĞƌ ƐďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐŝŶĂƌĞĂůŝƐƟĐĨƵƚƵƌĞĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ
ŝ tĞŬŶŽǁŚŽǁŽƵƌƐŽůƵƟŽŶĐƌĞĂƚĞƐĂƌĂĚŝĐĂůůLJŶĞǁŽƉƉŽƌͲƚƵŶŝƚLJŝŶƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚƉůĂĐĞ
ũ tĞĐĂŶŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƚŚĞƚŽƉϮͲϯĨĂĐƚŽƌƐƚŚĂƚĚĞĮŶĞƚŚĞƵŶŝƋƵĞǀĂůƵĞŽĨŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂ
50
ScoringĨLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐƐĐŽƌĞŝƐůĞƐƐƚŚĂŶϯƉŽŝŶƚƐƉĞƌ ƌŽǁ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ƚĂďůĞ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƚƵƌŶŝŶŐƚŽƚŚĞĂƉƉƌŽƉƌŝĂƚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐͿĂƐŶĞĞĚĞĚĂŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉŽŶƉĂŐĞϲϭďWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϳϬĐĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϴϭĚĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĐƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϵϰĞĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĐƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϵϰĨ ampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϬϯŐampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϬϯŚampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϭϰŝtŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϮϳũtŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϮϳŬWĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϯϲůĂƌŬŽƌƐĞWƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϰϱŵŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϰϵŶƵĚĚLJŚĞĐŬƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϲϴŽsK^ƚĂƌƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϳϴƉƌŽǁĚůŽǀĞƌƐŽŶŽŶƉĂŐĞϭϴϴƋsŝƐŝŽŶ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚŽŶƉĂŐĞϮϬϯƌ ZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚŽŶƉĂŐĞϮϭϯƐWĂƚŚĮŶĚĞƌƐŽŶƉĂŐĞϮϯϬ
ZĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ dĞĂŵƐůĞǀĞůŽĨŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ
ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ
Ŭ tĞĐĂŶĞdžƉůĂŝŶƐĞǀĞƌĂůůĞƐƐŽŶƐŐĂŝŶĞĚĨƌŽŵďƵŝůĚŝŶŐĂŶĚƚĞƐƟŶŐĂƌŽƵŐŚŵŽĚĞůƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞŽĨŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐLJƐƚĞŵ
ů tĞĐĂŶƐƉĞĐŝĨLJƚŚĞĨƵŶĚĂŵĞŶƚĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝŶŽƵƌŝĚĞĂƚŚĂƚďƌŝŶŐƐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚǀĂůƵĞƚŽŽƵƌƚĂƌŐĞƚƵƐĞƌƐ
ŵ tĞĐĂŶŶĂŵĞƚŚĞƚŽƉϮͲϯŵŽƐƚĐƌŝƟĐĂůĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĂƌĞŽŶƚŚĞĚŝƌĞĐƚƉĂƚŚƚŽĚĞůŝǀĞƌŝŶŐŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂ
Ŷ tĞŚĂǀĞĂŐŽŽĚƐĞŶƐĞŽŶŚŽǁƚŽĮŶĚĐŽͲĐƌĞĂƚŽƌƐ
Ž KƵƌƚĞĂŵŬŶŽǁƐǁŚĂƚŝƐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚƚŽůĞĂĚĂŶĚŝŶƐƟůůĂĐƵůͲƚƵƌĞŽĨƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
Ɖ tĞŬŶŽǁŚŽǁƚŽƌĞůLJŽŶŽƵƌƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐĨŽƌĂĐƟŽŶ
Ƌ tĞĐĂŶƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂŵŝŶŝƐƵŵŵĂƌLJŽĨŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŚĂƚĂŶLJƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌǁŽƵůĚƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ
ƌ tĞĐĂŶŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƚŚĞďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŽĨŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂͲƟŽŶǀŝƐŝŽŶŝŶƌĞůĂƟŽŶƚŽŽƚŚĞƌǁĞůůͲŬŶŽǁŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐ
Ɛ tĞŬŶŽǁƚŚĞĨŽƌŵĂůĂŶĚŝŶĨŽƌŵĂůƉĂƚŚŽƵƌŝĚĞĂŵƵƐƚƚĂŬĞǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƚŽƐƵĐĐĞĞĚ
51
The short answer is both All the methods can be used independently or within groups
Using methods alone ^ŽŵĞ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ƉƌĞĨĞƌ ƵƐŝŶŐ Ă ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌŵĞƚŚŽĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŽǁŶ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ĨŽůůŽǁŝŶŐƌĞĂƐŽŶƐͻ ĞĨŽƌĞƚŚĞLJƚĂůŬǁŝƚŚŽƚŚĞƌƐƚŚĞLJ
ƵƐĞƚŚĞƐĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƚŽŚĞůƉƚŚĞŵƐŽƌƚĂŶĚƉƌŝŽƌŝƟnjĞŵƵůƟƉůĞŽƉƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶƐƚĞǁŝŶŐƋƵŝĞƚůLJŝŶƚŚĞŝƌŚĞĂĚƐ
ͻ dŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐůĞƚƚŚĞŵƉƌĞƉĂƌĞĂďĞƩĞƌƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶƚŚĂƚŝƐŵŽƌĞǀŝƐƵĂůĂŶĚƉƌŽǀŽĐĂƟǀĞƚŚĂŶƚŚĞƵƐƵĂůƌĞƉŽƌƚƐůŝĚĞƐ
ͻ dŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĂƌĞƵŶĐŽŵŵŽŶĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐŝŶŐĂƵƐĞƌƚŽůŽŽƐĞŶĞdžŝƐƟŶŐďŝĂƐĞƐĂŶĚďƌŽĂĚĞŶĂƉƌŽďůĞŵƐƉĂĐĞŝŶŶĞǁǁĂLJƐ
Using methods in teams KƚŚĞƌƐ ƚĂŬĞ ĂĚǀĂŶƚĂŐĞ ŽĨ ǁŽƌŬŝŶŐ ŝŶŐƌŽƵƉƐĨŽƌƚŚĞƐĞƌĞĂƐŽŶƐͻ dŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŽīĞƌĂŶŝŵƉĂƌƟĂů
ĐŽŵŵŽŶůĂŶŐƵĂŐĞǁŚŝĐŚŚĞůƉƐƉƌĞǀĞŶƚƉĞŽƉůĞĨƌŽŵĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĚŝǀŝƐŝŽŶƐŽƌĨƵŶĐƟŽŶƐĨĂůůŝŶŐďĂĐŬƚŽĂůŝĞŶĂƟŶŐũĂƌŐŽŶŽƌďĞůŽǀĞĚƚŽŽůƐĂƐĞĂƐŝůLJ
ͻ dŚĞĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬĂŶĚĞŶƐƵŝŶŐĚŝĂůŽŐƵĞĂŵŽŶŐŐƌŽƵƉŵĞŵďĞƌƐĂůůŽǁŝĚĞĂƐƚŽƐŚĂƌƉĞŶĨĂƐƚĞƌĂŶĚĐŽͲĞǀŽůǀĞǁŝƚŚĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůŝŶƉƵƚ
ͻ ŶŽƚŚĞƌďĞŶĞĮƚŝƐŐƌĞĂƚĞƌĂůŝŐŶŵĞŶƚǁŝƚŚŝŶĂƚĞĂŵŽƌĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJLJǁŽƌŬŝŶŐƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌǁŝƚŚƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƉĞŽƉůĞĨĞĞůĂƐŚĂƌĞĚƐĞŶƐĞŽĨŽǁŶĞƌƐŚŝƉŝŶƚŚĞŝĚĞĂƐ
ͻ ƐǁŽƌŬŚĂƐďĞĐŽŵĞŵŽƌĞĐŽŵƉůĞdžĂŶĚƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝnjĞĚǁŽƌŬŝŶŐŝŶŐƌŽƵƉƐŽǀĞƌĐŽŵĞƐƚŚĞƉƌŽďůĞŵŽĨŶĂƌƌŽǁƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐdŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĐĂŶďĞƵƐĞĚƚŽĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞĂĐƌŽƐƐͲĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJĐŽŶǀĞƌƐĂƟŽŶĚƌĂǁŝŶŐƵƉŽŶĂǁŝĚĞƌƉŽŽůŽĨŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞŝŶƚŚĞŐƌŽƵƉ
Should we work in teams or alone
Optimal group size tĞ ĂƌĞ ŽŌĞŶ ĂƐŬĞĚ ǁŚĂƚ ŝƐ ƚŚĞ ƌŝŐŚƚŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞ ŝŶĂŐƌŽƵƉdŚĞ ŝĚĞĂůŐƌŽƵƉƐŝnjĞƚĞŶĚƐƚŽďĞĂďŽƵƚĨŽƵƌƉĞŽƉůĞƐŽ ƚŚĂƚ ĞŶŽƵŐŚ ĚŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ĞdžŝƐƚƐ ŝŶ ƚĞƌŵƐŽĨ ĂŐĞ ďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚ ĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĞ ĞƚĐhůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ ĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ƐŚŽƵůĚ ĨĞĞů ůŝŬĞ ĂĐŽŶƚƌŝďƵƟŶŐ ŵĞŵďĞƌ ƌŽƵƉ ƐŝnjĞƐ ƚĞŶĚƚŽďĞůĂƌŐĞƌŝŶƐŝĂŶĐƵůƚƵƌĞƐůƐŽĞdžƉĞƌƚĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƟŽŶŝƐŶŝĐĞďƵƚŽƉƟŽŶĂůhƐĞ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŽ ƌĂůůLJ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ
ƚŽ Ă ĐŽŵŵŽŶ ĐĂƵƐĞ ĂŶĚ ƐƉĂƌŬ ŝŶͲĚĞƉƚŚĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐŽŶŝĚĞĂƐĂŶĚǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵǁĂŶƚ ƚŽ ƉƵƌƐƵĞ ŝƚŚĞƌ ƵƐĞĚ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůůLJŽƌŝŶŐƌŽƵƉƐƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŐŝǀĞƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞƚŽ ƚŚĞ ƵŶƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŽĨ ƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
52
dŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŚĞƌĞ ƌĞůLJ ŽŶ ƌĞĂůͲǁŽƌůĚĚĂƚĂ ƐŽ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐƵůƟŶŐ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐ ĂƌĞĨƵůůLJŐƌŽƵŶĚĞĚŝŶƌĞĂůŝƚLJŶŽƚŚĞƌǁŽƌĚƐƚŚĞƐĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐĂƌĞŝŶƚĞŶĚĞĚƚŽďĞďƵŝůƚtŚĞŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐƐƚĂƌƚŐƌŽƵƉƐ
ĂƌĞ ŽŌĞŶ ƐƚƵŵƉĞĚ ĂďŽƵƚǁŚĞƌĞ ƚŽ ĮŶĚĂƉƉƌŽƉƌŝĂƚĞ ĚĂƚĂ Ŷ ŐƌŽƵƉ ŵĞĞƟŶŐƐŝƚ ŝƐ ĞĂƐLJ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŶǀĞŶŝĞŶƚ ƚŽ ĚƌĂǁ ĨƌŽŵƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƚŽŵĂŬĞĂďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĐĂƐĞĨŽƌĂŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƚ ƐŽŵĞ ƉŽŝŶƚ ŚŽǁĞǀĞƌ LJŽƵ ƐŚŽƵůĚ
ŐƌŽƵŶĚ LJŽƵƌ ĂŶĞĐĚŽƚĂů ĞǀŝĚĞŶĐĞ ĂŶĚŚƵŶĐŚĞƐ ǁŝƚŚ ƌĞĂů ĚĂƚĂ ĞůŽǁ ĂƌĞƐĞǀĞƌĂů ĚĂƚĂ ƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ ĂƐ ƐƚĂƌƟŶŐ ƉŽŝŶƚƐĨŽƌ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ dŚĞƐĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐƐƉĂŶŶĞǁƐƉĂƉĞƌƐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂůĚĂƚĂďĂƐĞƐ ĂĐĂĚĞŵŝĐ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐ ĂŶĚŵŽƌĞ tĞ ĞdžƉĞĐƚ LJŽƵ ƚŽ ĞdžƉĂŶĚ ƚŚŝƐůŝƐƚďĂƐĞĚŽŶƚŚĞĞdžƉĞƌƚƐĂŶĚƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐƵŶŝƋƵĞ ƚŽ LJŽƵƌ ĮĞůĚ ŽĨ ǁŽƌŬ ĂŶĚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶŶĚ ĚŽŶƚ ĨŽƌŐĞƚ ƚŽ ŽďƐĞƌǀĞ ǁŚĂƚ
ŝƐ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ LJŽƵ ĂƐ ƌĞǀĞĂůŝŶŐ ƐŽƵƌĐĞƐŽĨ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ ampŽƌ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ǁŚĞŶ
ĂƩĞŵƉƟŶŐƚŽƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŶĞĞĚƐƚŽĚĂLJ ĂǁŽŶĚĞƌĨƵůĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞ ŝƐƚŽƉŝĐŬƵƉĂƐĞƚŽĨŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞƐĂƐƉƌŝŵĂƌLJƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůƐƐŬLJŽƵƌƐĞůĨͻ tŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞĂƌƟĐůĞƐĂďŽƵƚͻ tŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞƚŽŶĞͻ tŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚŽĨƚŚĞ
ǁƌŝƚĞƌƐͻ tŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞƋƵĂůŝƚLJŽĨƚŚĞŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞ
ŝƚƐĞůĨͻ tŚŽŝƐƚŚĞŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞ ƐƚĂƌŐĞƚ
ƌĞĂĚĞƌǁŚŽŝƐŝƚƐƉĞƌĐĞŝǀĞĚƌĞĂĚĞƌ
zŽƵƌ ĚĂƚĂ ƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ ĨŽƌ ĨƵƚƵƌĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂƌĞ ĞŶĚůĞƐƐ ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐ ƚĞdžƚŬƐŶĞǁƐƉĂƉĞƌƐ ǁŝŬŝƐ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ƌĞƉŽƌƚƐƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐ ŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚ ĂŐĞŶĐŝĞƐŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƟŽŶƐƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚůĂďƐƚŚŝŶŬƚĂŶŬƐ ƉƌŽĨĞƐƐŝŽŶĂů ũŽƵƌŶĂůƐ ĂŶĚ ĞdžƉĞƌƚŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐWůĞĂƐĞƐĞĞƚŚĞĂƉƉĞŶĚŝdžĨŽƌĂďƌŝĞĨůŝƐƚ
ŽĨ ƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ ŝŶ ĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐůŽĐĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐĂŶĚŵŽƌĞ
Where can we find credible data
ZampgtdKEWhat are your usual top
ƐŽƵƌĐĞƐĨŽƌŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶWhy
53
Planning with foresight^ŽƉŚŝĞ ĞŶƌŝŬƐĞŶ Ă ƉƐĞƵĚŽŶLJŵͿĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŵĂŶĂŐĞƌĂƚĂŐůŽďĂůƉůĂLJĞƌŝŶ ŽŶĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌůĚ Ɛ ŵŽƐƚ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶͲŝŶƚĞŶƐŝǀĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĞƐĂƩĞŶĚĞĚĂŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƚƌĂŝŶŝŶŐ ǁŝƚŚƐĞǀĞƌĂůĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐŌĞƌǁĂƌĚƐ ƐŚĞ ƉůĂŶŶĞĚ ƚŽ ĂƉƉůLJ ƚŚĞ
ŶĞǁ ƚŽŽůƐ ĂŶĚ ƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐ ƐŚĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚƚŽ ŽƚŚĞƌ ŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞƐ ƵŶĚĞƌǁĂLJ Ăƚ ŚĞƌĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĞŶƌŝŬƐĞŶĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŽƉůĂŶƚǁŽĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂů ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐ ƟĞĚ ƚŽ ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐKŶĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ Ă ŚĂůĨͲĚĂLJ
ƐĞƐƐŝŽŶ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ŽŶ ĞdžƉůŽƌŝŶŐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŵŽĚĞůƐ ĨŽƌ ŶĞǁ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐ dŚĞƐĞĐŽŶĚ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ Ă ĨƵůůͲĚĂLJƐĞƐƐŝŽŶĚĞĚŝĐĂƚĞĚƚŽĮŶĚŝŶŐŶĞǁĞŶĚƵƐĞƐĂŶĚĂƉƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐĨŽƌĂŶĞdžŝƐƟŶŐƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ
The advantage of workshopsDŽƌĞƚŚĂŶƌŽƵƟŶĞŵĞĞƟŶŐƐǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐĂƌĞ ĂŶ ĞīĞĐƟǀĞ ǁĂLJ ƚŽ ďƌŝŶŐ ƉĞŽƉůĞƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌĂŶĚ ĨŽĐƵƐĞīŽƌƚƐŽŶĂ ƚŽƉŝĐŽĨĐŽŵŵŽŶŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚampĞǁŽƚŚĞƌŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŽĨ
ĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟŽŶŐŝǀĞƉĞŽƉůĞ ƚŚĞ ĐŚĂŶĐĞ ƚŽŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƚĂŶĚŚĂǀĞĂĐŽŶĐĞŶƚƌĂƚĞĚƉĞƌŝŽĚƚŽƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐĂůůLJƉůĂŶĂŶĚƌĞŇĞĐƚdLJƉŝĐĂůůLJ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ŵĂLJ ĚĞǀŽƚĞ ŽŶůLJ
Ă ƐŵĂůů ƉŽƌƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƟŵĞ ŽŶ ĚĞĞƉĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ƐŽ ƚŚĞƐĞ ŬŝŶĚƐ ŽĨ ƐĞƐƐŝŽŶƐƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ŬĞLJ ƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĐĂŶ ďĞĚŝĸĐƵůƚ ƚŽ ƉƵƌƐƵĞ ĚƵƌŝŶŐ ĚĂŝůLJ ǁŽƌŬŚŽƵƌƐŽǁ ŝƐ ĂŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ
ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ĨƌŽŵ ĂŶLJ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƚLJƉĞ ŽĨǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ampŝƌƐƚ ƚŚĞ ĂŐĞŶĚĂ ŝƐ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚŽŶŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŶŐĂŶĚĞǀĂůƵĂƟŶŐŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƐĞŶƌŝŬƐĞŶ ǁŝƐŚĞĚ ƚŽ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ƚŚĞ ƌŝŐŚƚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƚŽŽůƐ ƚŽ ĞdžƉůŽƌĞ ŵŽƌĞ ŝĚĞĂƐďĞLJŽŶĚƚŚĞƵƐƵĂůďƌĂŝŶƐƚŽƌŵŝŶŐƚĂĐƟĐƐ^ĞĐŽŶĚ ƚŚĞ ŽƵƚĐŽŵĞ ŝƐ ŶŽƚ ƚŽ ƐŽůǀĞ
ƉƌŽďůĞŵƐ tŚŝůĞ ĞŶƌŝŬƐĞŶ ǁĂŶƚĞĚ ƚŽĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞ ŽƉĞŶͲĞŶĚĞĚ ƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ ĂďŽƵƚĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƉŽƐƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐ ĂŵŽŶŐ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐƐŚĞŬŶĞǁƚŚĂƚƚŚĞƌĞĂůŐŽĂůǁĂƐƚŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐdŚŝƌĚ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ŽŌĞŶ ǁŽƌŬ ǁŝƚŚ
ŝĚĞĂƐĂƐƉĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞŝƌũŽďƌŽůĞƐĞŶƌŝŬƐĞŶǁŽƵůĚĮƌƐƚĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐŝŶďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŶĞǁ
CASE STUDY | 10 workshop lessons from an industry veteran
ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƌĞůĂƚĞĚĂƌĞĂƐĂůůŽĨǁŚŽŵǁĞƌĞƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďůĞĨŽƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝŶƐŽŵĞǁĂLJampƌŽŵ ƉƌŝŽƌ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ ĞŶƌŝŬƐĞŶ
ŬŶĞǁƚŚĞŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶĐĞŽĨƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĐĞƌƚĂŝŶǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĚĞƚĂŝůƐďĞĨŽƌĞƐĞŶĚŝŶŐŽƵƚƚŚĞŝŶǀŝƚĂƟŽŶƐ ƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ĨƌĂŵŝŶŐ ŽďũĞĐƟǀĞƐĂƉƉƌŽƉƌŝĂƚĞůLJ ĂŶĚ ĐƌĞĂƟŶŐ Ă ƐĂĨĞ ĂŶĚƐƵƉƉŽƌƟǀĞĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĨŽƌĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ŚĞĂůƐŽĐŽŶƐƵůƚĞĚƚǁŽǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚŽƌƐŝŶĂĚǀĂŶĐĞĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌƌĞĐŽŵŵĞŶĚĂƟŽŶƐdŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ƚŚĞLJ ƌĞǀŝƐŝƚĞĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ϭϬ
ŵŽƐƚ ĐĞŶƚƌĂů ƚĞŶĞƚƐ ĨŽƌ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjŝŶŐ ĂŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ
54
Lesson 1 Maximize participant diversityWĞŽƉůĞƌĞůLJŽŶƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐŚŽŶĞĚĨƌŽŵƉƌŝŽƌĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞͶǁŚĂƚƐĐŚŽůĂƌƐĐĂůůŚĞƵƌŝƐƟĐƐͶĂŶĚƚƌŝĂůͲĂŶĚͲĞƌƌŽƌĨŽƌĚĂŝůLJƉƌŽďůĞŵƐŽůǀŝŶŐůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐĂŶĚĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌLJ ŶǀŝƟŶŐƉĞŽƉůĞǁŝƚŚƐŝŵŝůĂƌďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚƐĂŶĚũŽďƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐŵĞĂŶƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉǁŝůů ĚƌĂǁ ŽŶ ƐŝŵŝůĂƌ ŵĞŶƚĂů ŵŽĚĞůƐ ĂŶĚďŝĂƐĞƐ ŶǀŝƟŶŐ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ĨƌŽŵŵŽƌĞ ĚŝǀĞƌƐĞďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚƐ ǁŝůů Ɛƚ ƚŚĞ ŶƵŵďĞƌ ŽĨŵĞŶƚĂů ŵŽĚĞůƐ ĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞ ǁŚŝĐŚ ĐŽƵůĚůĞĂĚ ƚŽ ŵŽƌĞ ĐƌĞĂƟǀĞ ƌĞͲͿĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶƐŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ĐĂŶ ďĞ ĚĞĮŶĞĚ ĂĐƌŽƐƐ ŵƵůƟƉůĞĨĂĐƚŽƌƐƐƵĐŚĂƐĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞĨƵŶĐƟŽŶũŽďƌŽůĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƚLJƚLJƉĞŐĞŶĚĞƌ ĂŐĞĂŶĚĂĐĂĚĞŵŝĐƚƌĂŝŶŝŶŐ ŝǀĞƌƐĞ ƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞƐ ǁŝůů ĂůƐŽĞŶĞƌŐŝnjĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ďƌŝŶŐ ŶĞǁŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐŝŶƚŽŽůĚĐŽŶƚĞdžƚƐ
Lesson 2 Divide people into smaller teams^ŵĂůůĞƌ ƚĞĂŵƐ ůĞĂĚ ƚŽ ŚŝŐŚĞƌ ůĞǀĞůƐ ŽĨĞŶŐĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶĂŶĚƐƚƵĚŝĞƐƐŚŽǁ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ŽƉƟŵĂů ŐƌŽƵƉ ƐŝnjĞ ĨŽƌƉƌŽďůĞŵƐŽůǀŝŶŐƚĞŶĚƐƚŽďĞĨŽƵƌƉĞŽƉůĞ
^ŵĂůůĞƌ ƚĞĂŵƐ ĂůƐŽ ŵĞĂŶƐ ŵŽƌĞ ŝĚĞĂƐĐĂŶďĞƉƵƌƐĞĚĂŶĚƐŚĂƌĞĚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞŽƚŚĞƌƚĞĂŵƐ ĨŽƌ ĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬ ƌĞĂŬŝŶŐ ƵƉ ŐƌŽƵƉƐƚŚĂƚĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƚĞŝŶĚĂŝůLJǁŽƌŬĂŶĚŝŶǀŝƟŶŐĞdžƚĞƌŶĂů ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐ ƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĂŶĚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐŚĞůƉƐĨŽƐƚĞƌĚŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ
Lesson 3 Assign light pre-work DĂŶLJ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐ ƐƚĂƌƚ ǁŝƚŚ Ă ǁĂƌŵͲƵƉĂĐƟǀŝƚLJƚŚĂƚƐĞƚƐƚŚĞƚŽŶĞĨŽƌƚŚĞǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĂŶĚƐĞƌǀĞƐĂƐĂŐƌŽƵƉŝĐĞďƌĞĂŬĞƌ zŽƵĐĂŶĂĐŚŝĞǀĞ ƐŝŵŝůĂƌ ƌĞƐƵůƚƐ ďLJ ĂƐƐŝŐŶŝŶŐ ůŝŐŚƚƉƌĞͲǁŽƌŬ ŝŶ ĂĚǀĂŶĐĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉǁŚŝĐŚ ƌĞĐŽǀĞƌƐ ƉƌĞĐŝŽƵƐ ƟŵĞ ĨƌŽŵƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ŝƚƐĞůĨ ampŽƌ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞ LJŽƵŵĂLJ ĂƐŬ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ƚŽ ƌĞĂĚ ϮͲϯ ƐŚŽƌƚƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚ ĂƌƟĐůĞƐ ƉŽŶĚĞƌ Ă ƐŚŽƌƚ ůŝƐƚ ŽĨƉƌŽǀŽĐĂƟǀĞ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ƚƌLJ ĂƉƉůLJŝŶŐ ĂŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƚŽŽůŽƌŽďƐĞƌǀĞŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁϭͲϮƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟǀĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐdĞĂŵƐĐĂŶƚŚĞŶƐŚĂƌĞƚŚĞŝƌŝŶŝƟĂůƚŚŽƵŐŚƚƐĂŶĚƌĞƐƵůƚƐĂƚƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ĨŽƌ ŽƉĞŶ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ dŚŝƐůĂLJƐĂŶĞīĞĐƟǀĞƐŚĂƌĞĚ ĨŽƵŶĚĂƟŽŶƚŚĂƚĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ĐĂŶĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJ ďƵŝůĚ ŽŶ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞƐƚĂƌƚ
Lesson 4 Frame the opportunities to be eXploredƚ ƚŚĞ ĞĂƌůLJ ƐƚĂŐĞƐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĞīŽƌƚƐŽŌĞŶ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞ ŵĂŬŝŶŐ ƐĞŶƐĞ ŽĨ ǀĞƌLJĂŵďŝŐƵŽƵƐ ƚĂƐŬƐ WĞŽƉůĞ Ɛ ŶĂƚƵƌĂůĚŝƐĐŽŵĨŽƌƚ ǁŝƚŚ ĂŵďŝŐƵŝƚLJ ŵĂLJ ůĞĂĚ ƚŽƚǁĞĂŬŝŶŐ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ ĨĞĂƚƵƌĞƐ ƚŚĞLJ ŬŶŽǁďLJ ŚĞĂƌƚ ĂŶĚ ŐƌĂǀŝƚĂƟŶŐ ƚŽǁĂƌĚ ĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐǀĞƌLJ ĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚŽƌŵƵƐƚ ƐƚƌŝŬĞ Ă ďĂůĂŶĐĞ
ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƵůƟŵĂƚĞ ĐƌĞĂƟǀĞ ĨƌĞĞĚŽŵ ĂŶĚĚŝƌĞĐƚĞĚ ŐƌŽƵƉ ŽďũĞĐƟǀĞƐ LJ ƐĞƫŶŐ ĂĐůĞĂƌ ĂŐĞŶĚĂ ĂŶĚ ĨƌĂŵŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐ ƐŽƵŐŚƚ ĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚŽƌƐ ĐĂŶŚĞůƉ ĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŶƚĞdžƚŽĨ ƚŚĞĐƌĞĂƟǀĞĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ ƚŚĂƚǁŝůů ĨŽůůŽǁƌĂǁŝŶŐƚŚĞƐĞďŽƵŶĚĂƌŝĞƐŝƐůŝŬĞďƵŝůĚŝŶŐĂĨĞŶĐĞĂƌŽƵŶĚĂŐƌŽƵƉƉůĂLJŐƌŽƵŶĚǁŚŝĐŚŚĞůƉƐ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ƐĞĞ ǁŚĞƌĞ ƚŽ ĨŽĐƵƐƚŚĞŝƌ ĞīŽƌƚƐ Ğ ƉƌĞƉĂƌĞĚ ƚŽ ƌĞƐĞƚ ƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŽƵƚƚŚĞƐĞƐƐŝŽŶ
55
Lesson 5 Prepare simple examplesDĂŶLJƟŵĞƐĐŽŵƉůĞdžŝƐƐƵĞƐĂƌĞĞĂƐŝĞƌƚŽůĞĂƌŶǁŚĞŶǁĞ ĐĂŶ ŽďƐĞƌǀĞ ŚŽǁŽƚŚĞƌƐŚĂǀĞ ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĞĚ ĂŶĚ ƐŽůǀĞĚ ƚŚĞŵĞĨŽƌĞƚĞĂĐŚŝŶŐĂŶĞǁŵĞƚŚŽĚĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƉƌŽǀŝĚŝŶŐ ĂŶ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ƚŚĂƚ ƐŚŽǁƐ ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚ ŝŶ ĂĐƟŽŶ WĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁŝůů ůĞĂƌŶĨĂƐƚĞƌ ǁŚĞŶ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ ĂƌĞ ƐŚŽǁŶ ĨƌŽŵĐŽŶƚĞdžƚƐƚŚĞLJŬŶŽǁĂŶĚƌĞĐŽŐŶŝnjĞŝŶƚŚĞĚĂŝůLJǁŽƌŬĂŶĚŚŽŵĞůŝĨĞƐƵĐŚĂƐƚŚĞůĂƐƚƉƌŽũĞĐƚůĂƵŶĐŚŽƌƚLJƉŝĐĂůƐƵŵŵĞƌŚŽůŝĚĂLJ
Lesson 6 Apply real-world datadĞĂŵƐ ƚLJƉŝĐĂůůLJ ĚƌĂǁĮƌƐƚ ĨƌŽŵƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƐ ĂŶĚ ŽƉŝŶŝŽŶƐ ĂƐ ŝŶƉƵƚ ƚŽĂŶĐŚŽƌ ƚŚĞ ƚŽŽůƐ ^ŽůĞůLJƵƐŝŶŐ ƐƵďũĞĐƟǀĞĚĂƚĂ ĐĂŶ ůĞĂĚ ƚŽ ŝŶǀĂůŝĚ ƵƚŽƉŝĂŶĐŽŶĐůƵƐŝŽŶƐĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƐƚĂƚĞŽĨƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚ dŚĞ ŵŽƌĞ ƌĞĂůͲǁŽƌůĚ ĚĂƚĂ ƚĞĂŵƐĐĂŶ ďƵŝůĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ŵŽƌĞ ŐƌŽƵŶĚĞĚ ƚŚĞŝƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐ ǁŝůů ďĞ dŚĞ ƌĞĂů
ƚƌƵƚŚƚŽƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂŶĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝƐƚŽƉƌĞƉĂƌĞĂĨĂĐƚƵĂů ĨŽƵŶĚĂƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚŶŽƚƚŽǁŝůĚůLJƐƉĞĐƵůĂƚĞĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ
Lesson 7 Follow the processtŚŝůĞ ƚŚĞ ƚLJƉĞƐ ŽĨ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ ǀĂƌLJ ǁŝƚŚĞǀĞƌLJŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƚŚĞŐŽĂůƐĂƌĞŶĞĂƌůLJ ĂůǁĂLJƐ ƚŚĞ ƐĂŵĞ ƚŽ ĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ƚŽ ůŽŽŬ Ăƚ ĂŶ ŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJŝŶ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ǁĂLJƐ ĚĞĂůůLJ ƚŚĞ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ĂĐƟǀŝƚLJ ǁŝůů ďƵŝůĚ ŽŶ ŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐĂĐƟǀŝƚLJdŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐ ŽŶĞ ƚĞƐƚĞĚ ĨŽƌŵƵůĂ ĨŽƌ ĮŶĚŝŶŐƚŚĞŶĞdžƚďŝŐŝĚĞĂĂŶĚĂůƐŽĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞƐƚŚĞŐĂƉƐ ŽŌĞŶ ĨŽƵŶĚǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ ƵƐƵĂů ĂĐƟǀŝƚLJĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ďƌĂŝŶƐƚŽƌŵŝŶŐ ƌŽůĞͲƉůĂLJŝŶŐĂŶĚŐƌŽƵƉǀŽƟŶŐ
Lesson 8 Allow time to reflect and rechargedŚĞ ƚĞŵƉƚĂƟŽŶ ŝƐ ƚŽ ďƵŝůĚ Ă ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĂŐĞŶĚĂ ďƵƌƐƟŶŐ ǁŝƚŚ ĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞƐ tŚŝůĞŝŶƚĞŶƐĞƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐĐĂŶƚƌĂŶƐůĂƚĞ ŝŶƚŽŚŝŐŚƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀŝƚLJ ĐƌĞĂƟǀĞ ƚĂƐŬƐ ŐĞŶĞƌĂůůLJƌĞƋƵŝƌĞ ƟŵĞ ƚŽ ĞdžƉůŽƌĞ ĂůƚĞƌŶĂƟǀĞƐĂŶĚ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƚ ƵŶƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ƚŚŝŶŐƐ ŝǀĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ƟŵĞ ďLJ ƐƉƌĞĂĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞĂŐĞŶĚĂŽǀĞƌŵƵůƟƉůĞǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐŽƌĚĂLJƐWƌĞͲĂŶĚƉŽƐƚͲĂƐƐŝŐŶŵĞŶƚƐĐĂŶƐƚƌĞĂŵůŝŶĞƚŚĞǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĂŐĞŶĚĂĂŶĚƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĂŵƉůĞďƌĞĂŬƐ ĂŶĚ ĚŽǁŶƟŵĞ ĨŽƌ ƌĞŇĞĐƟŽŶƌĞĐŽǀĞƌLJ ĂŶĚƌĞĐŚĂƌŐŝŶŐ
56
Lesson 9 Encourage experimentation and iteration dŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŝŶƚŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬĂƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŽ ŚĞůƉ ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ ĂŶĚ ĂĚǀĂŶĐĞ ƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐ tŝƚŚ ƚŚĂƚ ŝŶ ŵŝŶĚ ƌĞŵŝŶĚƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ŽƵƚƉƵƚ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŝƐ ŶŽƚ ĮŶĂů ŶƐƚĞĂĚ ĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚŽƌƐƐŚŽƵůĚ ĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞ ƚĞĂŵƐ ƚŽ ŝƚĞƌĂƚĞ ƚŚĞŝƌĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ƵƐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƐĂŵĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐͶƌĞǁŽƌŬŝŶŐ ĚŝƐĐĂƌĚŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ƌĞǀŝƐŝƟŶŐĚƌĂŌƐĂƐŶĞĞĚĞĚĂĐŚŝƚĞƌĂƟŽŶǁŝůůďƌŝŶŐƚŚĞŵĐůŽƐĞƌƚŽĂƐƚƌŽŶŐĞƌƐŽůƵƟŽŶDŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ ĂŶĚ
ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƚĞĂŵƐ ŵĂLJ ƉƌŽůŝĨĞƌĂƚĞ ďĞLJŽŶĚƚŚĞ ďŽƵŶĚĂƌŝĞƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƐĞƚ ŽďũĞĐƟǀĞƐDĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ƐŚŽƵůĚ ŶŽƚĞ Ăůů ŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĨŽƌĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ƚŚĞƐĞ ŝĚĞĂƐĂƌĞ ƚŚĞ ƐĞĞĚůŝŶŐƐ ŽĨ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůůLJ ǀĂůƵĂďůĞŶĞǁ ĂǀĞŶƵĞƐ ĨŽƌ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ Žƌ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ
Lesson 10 Sustain the momentum of the workshopdŚĞĐŽͲĐƌĞĂƟŽŶŽĨŝĚĞĂƐŝƐŽŶĞŽĨƚŚĞŵŽƐƚƉŽǁĞƌĨƵů ǁĂLJƐ ŽĨ ĐŽŵŵŝƫŶŐ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ƚŽƚŚĞŝƌŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶdŚĞƌĞŝƐŶŽƐƚƌŽŶŐĞƌƐĞŶƐĞ ŽĨ ŽǁŶĞƌƐŚŝƉ ƚŚĂŶ ƚŽ ƚŚĂƚ ǁŚŝĐŚǁĞ ŚĂǀĞ ĐƌĞĂƚĞĚ ŽƵƌƐĞůǀĞƐ tŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐďŝŶĚ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐ ƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ĂŶĚ ĐƌĞĂƚĞ ĂƐĞŶƐĞ ŽĨ ƐŽůŝĚĂƌŝƚLJ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ ŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂƐdŚŝƐ ŵŽŵĞŶƚƵŵ ĐĂŶ ďĞ ŚĂƌŶĞƐƐĞĚ ŝŶƚŽĂĐƟŽŶĂŌĞƌƚŚĞǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉŶƐƚĞĂĚŽĨƚŚĞƵƐƵĂů ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂů ǁŚŽ ŝƐ ƐŝŶŐůĞͲŚĂŶĚĞĚůLJƚĂƐŬĞĚ ĂƐ Ă ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ĐŚĂŵƉŝŽŶ LJŽƵ ŶŽǁŐĂŝŶ ĂŶ ĞŶƟƌĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƚŚĂƚ ŝƐ ĞŶĞƌŐŝnjĞĚ ƚŽƉƵƐŚ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ĐŚĂŶŐĞ dŚĞ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞ ŝŶůĞǀĞƌĂŐĞ ŝƐ ŐƌĞĂƚ ĂůůŽǁŝŶŐ ŝŶƐƉŝƌĂƟŽŶ ƚŽůĞĂĚƋƵŝĐŬůLJƚŽŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĞdžĞĐƵƟŽŶ
57
ΗdŚĞĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞŽĨĐŽŵƉĞƟŶŐĨŽƌŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚŝƐƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞŚŝŶĚƐŝŐŚƚŝŶĂĚǀĂŶĐĞ
dŚĞƋƵĞƐƚĨŽƌŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚŽŌĞŶƐƚĂƌƚƐǁŝƚŚǁŚĂƚĐŽƵůĚďĞĂŶĚƚŚĞŶǁŽƌŬƐďĂĐŬƚŽǁŚĂƚŵƵƐƚ
ŚĂƉƉĞŶĨŽƌƚŚĂƚĨƵƚƵƌĞƚŽĐŽŵĞĂďŽƵƚ ͶGary Hamel ĂŶĚ C K Prahalad ŽŵƉĞƟŶŐĨŽƌƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞϭϵϵϲͿ
58
PERSPECTIVEChaptER 3
Shortcuts
Phase I Perspective 59
Context Maps 61
Progression Curves 70
Case study Ubicom 78
Janus Cones 81
ϱϵ
Have you ever spent time in a meeting and after 30 minutes realized the group should have discussed what has happened before in your organization let alone industry Or wondered when the brainstorm yoursquore in will ever converge to the main points
tŚŝůĞ ƐŽŵĞ ŐƌŽƵƉƐ ůŝŬĞ ƚŽ ďĞůŝĞǀĞ ƚŚĞŝƌďĞƐƚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐŽĐĐƵƌǁŚĞŶƚŚĞLJĚŝƐŵŝƐƐĂůůƉƌŝŽƌŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞƚŚŝƐƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶŝƐŚĂƌĚƚŽƌĞƉĞĂƚdŚĞƌĞĂůĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĞŽĨŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐ ůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽďůĞŵ ƐƉĂĐĞƚŚŽƌŽƵŐŚůLJ LJ ďĞŝŶŐ ŝŵŵĞƌƐĞĚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞĨĂĐƚƐLJŽƵĐĂŶƐĞĞŶĞǁƉĂƩĞƌŶƐĞŵĞƌŐĞĂŶĚ ŵĂŬĞ ƵŶĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐďĞLJŽŶĚ ƚŚĞ ŽďǀŝŽƵƐ dŚŝƐ ŝƐ Ă ƟŵĞ ƚŚĂƚƐĐŚŽůĂƌƐƚĞƌŵŝŶĐƵďĂƟŽŶ WŚĂƐĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ampƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬ
ƚĂŬĞƐĂůůŽĨƚŚĞƐĞŝƐƐƵĞƐŝŶƚŽĂĐĐŽƵŶƚdŚĞŽďũĞĐƟǀĞŽĨƚŚĞĮƌƐƚƉŚĂƐĞŝƐƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂů ƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ĂďŽƵƚ ĂŶ ĂƌĞĂ ŽĨŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚƚŽƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƚŽ ĐƌĞĂƚĞ zŽƵ ŵƵƐƚ ůŽŽŬ ďĂĐŬ ĮƌƐƚ ŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽůŽŽŬĨŽƌǁĂƌĚLJŬŶŽǁŝŶŐǁŚĂƚŚĂƐŚĂƉƉĞŶĞĚŝŶƚŚĞƉĂƐƚLJŽƵĐĂŶďĞƩĞƌƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ǁŚĂƚ ŵĂLJ ŚĂƉƉĞŶ ĂŐĂŝŶĂŶĚǁŚLJͶŽƌǁŚĂƚLJŽƵĐĂŶĚŽ ƚŽĞŝƚŚĞƌĞdžƉůŽŝƚŽƌƉƌĞǀĞŶƚƐŝŵŝůĂƌŽĐĐƵƌƌĞŶĐĞƐĂůů ƚŚŝƐ ƉŚĂƐĞ ďůƵĞ ƐŬLJ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ
ĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌLJ Žƌ ǁŚĂƚĞǀĞƌ ƚĞƌŵŵĂŬĞƐ ƚŚĞŵŽƐƚ ƐĞŶƐĞ ĨŽƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŝƚ Ɛ Ăůů ĂďŽƵƚ
Phase I Perspective
ŐĂŝŶŝŶŐĂǀŝĞǁŽĨƚŚĞďŝŐƉŝĐƚƵƌĞƐŽLJŽƵĐĂŶĚŝƐĐĞƌŶƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚƉĂƩĞƌŶƐdŚƌĞĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĐĂŶ ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ ŐĂŝŶ
ƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞƋƵŝĐŬůLJͻ ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉͻ WƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐͻ ĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐ
60
ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƐŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƚŚĞŵĂŝŶĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐŽĨLJŽƵƌĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƉƌŽďůĞŵŽƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƐƉĂĐĞїƉĂŐĞϲϭ
WƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐƉƵƚĞǀĞŶƚƟŵĞůŝŶĞƐŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJůŝĨĞͲĐLJĐůĞƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƐŝŶĐŽŶƚĞdžƚїƉĂŐĞϳϬ
ĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐůĞƚLJŽƵƚŽǀŝĞǁŵƵůƟƉůĞŽǀĞƌͲůĂƉƉŝŶŐĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌƐĞĐƟŶŐĞǀĞŶƚƐŝŶĂƐŝŶŐůĞĨƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬїƉĂŐĞϴϭ
PHASE I PERSPECTIVEWĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉƐĂďƌŽĂĚĞƌĨƌĂŵĞŽĨƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞŚŽůĚŝŶŐƵƉĂŵŝƌƌŽƌƚŽƚŚĞƉĂƐƚƐŽLJŽƵŵĂLJďĞƩĞƌĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĚƌŝǀĞ
this phaseͻ tŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞďŝŐŐĞƌĐŽŶƚĞdžƚĨŽƌ
ƚŚĞƚŽƉŝĐǁĞĂƌĞŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚĞĚŝŶͻ tŚĂƚŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂůĞǀĞŶƚƐŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ
ĂĐƟŽŶƐĂŶĚƐŽĐŝĞƚĂůŵŽǀĞŵĞŶƚƐĐĂŶďĞŝĚĞŶƟĮĞĚĂƐĚƌŝǀĞƌƐ
ͻ tŚĞŶƌĞǀŝĞǁŝŶŐƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐŝŶǀĞŶƟŽŶƐĂŶĚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐǁŚĂƚƐŝŵŝůĂƌŝƟĞƐŝŶƟŵŝŶŐĂŶĚĂĚŽƉƟŽŶĞdžŝƐƚƚŽĚĂLJ
61
Context Maps capture the themes that emerge when discussing complex problems
WhEN to use itͻ dŽƉƵƌƐƵĞĂŶĞŶƟƌĞůLJŶĞǁĂƌĞĂŽĨ
ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚͻ dŽĮŶĚŐƌŽƵƉĂŐƌĞĞŵĞŶƚŽŶƚŚĞ
ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚĂƐƉĞĐƚƐŽĨĂƉƌŽďůĞŵͻ dŽŐĂŝŶĨĂƐƚďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚĨŽƌĂ
ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌƚŽƉŝĐ
WhY itrsquos helpful
ŽŶƚĞdžƚ DĂƉ ĂĚǀĂŶĐĞƐ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬ ŽĨƚŚĞƵƐƵĂůŝĚĞĂŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶƚŽŽůƐƐƵĐŚĂƐďƌĂŝŶƐƚŽƌŵŝŶŐ ĂŶĚŵŝŶĚͲŵĂƉƉŝŶŐ dŚĞŐŽĂůŽĨďƌĂŝŶƐƚŽƌŵŝŶŐ ŝƐƚŽŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĂƐŵĂŶLJ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĂƐ ƉŽƐƐŝďůĞ ĂŶĚ ŶŽ ĨŽĐƵƐŝƐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚ ŶĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚĂŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉůĞƚƐ LJŽƵ ďĞŐŝŶ ĐŽŶǀĞƌŐŝŶŐ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƚŽƉƚŚĞŵĞƐ Žƌ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ ŽĨ Ă ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌƚŽƉŝĐŽƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƐƉĂĐĞtŚLJ ĞŝŐŚƚ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ ƚŽ Ă ŽŶƚĞdžƚ
DĂƉ zŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ĞŶŽƵŐŚ ƚŽ ĐĂƉƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĞƉƌŽďůĞŵ ƐĐŽŵƉůĞdžŝƚLJ LJĞƚŶŽƚƚŽŽĨĞǁƚŽůŽƐĞƐŝŐŚƚŽĨǁŚĂƚŝƐŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ
Context Maps
What you getzŽƵǁŝůů ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJĞŝŐŚƚĐŽƌĞĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐŽĨLJŽƵƌĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƉƌŽďůĞŵŽƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƐƉĂĐĞ LJ ŬŶŽǁŝŶŐ ƚŚĞƐĞ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐLJŽƵĐĂŶĂƐŬƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚŝŶƚƵƌŶ ƉƌŽŵƉƚ Ă ŵŽƌĞ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĞĚ ƐĞĂƌĐŚĨŽƌƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐDŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ƚŚŝƐŵĞƚŚŽĚŝƐĂŶĞdžĐĞůůĞŶƚ
ŝĐĞͲďƌĞĂŬĞƌĨŽƌĂŶĞǁƚĞĂŵƚŽƐƚĂƌƚƚŚĞŝƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐ ŽŶƚĞdžƚ DĂƉƐĂůƐŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ƌĂƉŝĚ ƌĞŇĞĐƟŽŶĂƚƉƌŽũĞĐƚŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐ
62
Letrsquos look at an example^ŝƌ WĞƚĞƌ Ăůů ŝƐ ĂŶ ĞŵŝŶĞŶƚ ƌŝƟƐŚƐĐŚŽůĂƌǁŚŽƐƚƵĚŝĞƐƚŚĞŚŝƐƚŽƌLJŽĨƵƌďĂŶƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂŶĚĚĞƐŝŐŶampŽƌƚŚĞyWKϮϬϬϬtŽƌůĚdžŚŝďŝƟŽŶĂůůĂŶĚŚŝƐĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƉƌĞƉĂƌĞĚ ĂŶ ĞdžƚĞŶƐŝǀĞ ƌĞƉŽƌƚ ĐĂůůĞĚhƌďĂŶampƵƚƵƌĞϮϭŝŶǁŚŝĐŚƚŚĞLJŽƵƚůŝŶĞĂŐůŽďĂůĂŐĞŶĚĂĨŽƌϮϭƐƚĐĞŶƚƵƌLJĐŝƟĞƐ ƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ƐƚƵĚĞŶƚ ƚĞĂŵ ƵƐĞĚ
Ăůů Ɛ ƌĞƉŽƌƚ ƚŽ ŐĂŝŶ ƋƵŝĐŬ ďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚĨŽƌ Ă ĐůĂƐƐ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ŵĂũŽƌ ĂƵƚŽŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌĞƌ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƐƉŽŶƐŽƌĞĚ ƚŚĞƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐƉƌŽũĞĐƚǁŝƐŚĞĚƚŽƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŚŽǁ ƉƌĞŵŝƵŵ ƚƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚĂƟŽŶ ǁŽƵůĚĐŚĂŶŐĞŝŶŐůŽďĂůŵĞŐĂĐŝƟĞƐgtĂĐŬŝŶŐŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞŽĨƚŚĞĂƵƚŽŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ
ƚŚĞƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐƵƐĞĚƚŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉĂƐĂĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƵĂů ƐŚŽƌƚŚĂŶĚƚŽŐĞƚƐƚĂƌƚĞĚŽŶƚŚĞŝƌƉƌŽũĞĐƚĂŶĚĂůƐŽƚŽƌĞŵĞŵďĞƌƚŚĞŵĂŝŶƚŚĞŵĞƐŽĨƚŚĞƌĞƉŽƌƚtŝƚŚŽƵƚ ƌĞĂĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƉŽƌƚLJŽƵƌƐĞůĨ
LJŽƵ ĐĂŶ ůŽŽŬ Ăƚ ƚŚĞ ƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐ ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ ĂŶĚ ĂůƐŽ ŬŶŽǁ ƚŚĞ ĞŝŐŚƚ ŬĞLJĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĂůůĨĞůƚĂƌĞŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƚŽĂĨƵƚƵƌĞŝĚĞĂůĐŝƚLJ
WƌŽĚ
ƵĐƟǀ
Ğ
WŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŐƌŽǁƚŚ
ĞŵŽĐƌĂƟnjĂƟŽŶ
ŶǀĞŶƟŽŶ
ůĞĂ
ŶŐƌĞĞŶ
ŚĞ
ĂůƚŚLJΘƐĂ
ĨĞ
ƵůƚƵƌĂůůLJǀŝďƌĂŶƚ
^ŽĐŝĂůůLJĞƋƵŝƚĂďůĞ
ĂƉƉLJůŝǀĞƐ
gtdz
gt ŵƉŽǁĞƌŝŶŐĐŝƟnjĞŶƐĂƚůŽĐĂůůĞǀĞůƐgt ^ŽĐŝĂůĐĂƉŝƚĂů
^ŽƵƌĐĞWĞƚĞƌĂůůĂŶĚhůƌŝĐŚWĨĞŝīĞƌ ϮϬϬϬhƌďĂŶampƵƚƵƌĞϮϭůŽďĂůŐĞŶĚĂĨŽƌϮϭƐƚĞŶƚƵƌLJŝƟĞƐ
63
Instructionsϭ ŐƌĞĞŽŶĂďƌŽĂĚƚŽƉŝĐŽƌ
ŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJĂƌĞĂLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵǁĂŶƚƐƚŽƉƵƌƐƵĞzŽƵƐĞƚƚŚĞƐĐĂůĞŽĨƚŽƉŝĐsĞƌLJďƌŽĂĚƚŽƉŝĐƐŵĂLJƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĞǀĞƌĂůŝƚĞƌĂƟŽŶƐ
Ϯ ƌĂǁĂŶŽƵƚůŝŶĞĨŽƌĂŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉŽƌƵƐĞƚŚĞǁŽƌŬƐŚĞĞƚƚĞŵƉůĂƚĞŝŶƚŚĞƉůĂLJŬ
ϯ ^ƚĂƌƚƚĂůŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĂďŽƵƚLJŽƵƌƚŽƉŝĐŶŽƟŶŐĂŶLJƐĂůŝĞŶƚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĂƐƚŚĞLJĂƌŝƐĞWŽŝŶƚƐŽĨŝŶƚĞŶƐĞĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶŽƌĞǀĞŶĚŝƐĂŐƌĞĞŵĞŶƚĂƌĞŐŽŽĚƚŽŝŶĐůƵĚĞŝŶLJŽƵƌŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ
ϰ EŽƚĞƐŝĚĞƚŽƉŝĐƐĂŶĚĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐĂƌŽƵŶĚLJŽƵƌŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƚƟŵĞƐLJŽƵŵĂLJũƵŵƉƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂƚĂŶŐĞŶƟĂůŽƌĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉdŚĂƚŝƐŐƌĞĂƚĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƟŽŶ
ϱ ZĞƉĞĂƚƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐƵŶƟůLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĂƌƌŝǀĞƐĂƚĂŵĂƉŽƌƐĞƚŽĨŵĂƉƐͿƚŚĂƚĐĂƉƚƵƌĞƐLJŽƵƌƉƌŽďůĞŵƐƉĂĐĞƐĂƟƐĨĂĐƚŽƌŝůLJ
ї^ĞĞƚŚĞĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚĚŝĂŐƌĂŵĨŽƌĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚŝĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶĚŝĚLJŽƵƐƉĞŶĚ
ƚŚĞŵŽƐƚƟŵĞĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŶŐͻ tŚŝĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚƚŚĞ
ŐƌĞĂƚĞƐƚŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐͻ tŚŝĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚƚŚĞ
ŐƌĞĂƚĞƐƚŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵĐĂŶƚĂŶƐǁĞƌƚŽĚĂLJ
ͻ ŌĞƌĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŶŐĂƐĂŐƌŽƵƉĚŽLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƚŽƌĞĚƌĂǁƚŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉďĂƐĞĚŽŶǁŚĂƚLJŽƵŚĂǀĞůĞĂƌŶĞĚ
64
1 We agree that we
first want to know
how experts define
the city of the future
3 As we talk we note the biggest themes in Hallrsquos report as one theme per dimension
4 A team member captures related points near certain themes so we donrsquot forget our dialogue later
2 We then sketch the
tool outline which
looks like a big flower
with eight ldquopetalsrdquo
65
Drawing insights amp implicationsŌĞƌ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐ ĂŶ ŝŶŝƟĂů ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ ƚŚĞ ƐƚƵĚĞŶƚ ƚĞĂŵ ƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚ ƚŚĂƚƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀŝƚLJǁĞƌĞ ŽŶůLJ ƚǁŽ ŵĞĂƐƵƌĞŵĞŶƚƐ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨŵĞŐĂͲĐŝƟĞƐKƚŚĞƌŝŶƚĂŶŐŝďůĞĂŶĚƋƵĂůŝƚĂƟǀĞĂƐƉĞĐƚƐƐƵĐŚĂƐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŚĂƉƉŝŶĞƐƐĂŶĚĐƵůƚƵƌĂůǀŝďƌĂŶĐLJ ĂƌĞĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůƚŽĐŝƚLJĚǁĞůůĞƌƐdŚŝƐŝŶƐŝŐŚƚĐŚĂŶŐĞĚƚŚĞŝƌĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŽĚĂƚĂĐŽůůĞĐƟŽŶĂŶĚƚŚĞLJŶŽǁůŽŽŬĞĚĨŽƌĂďƌŽĂĚĞƌƐĞƚŽĨŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐdŚĞƚĞĂŵĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŽƚĂŬĞƚŚĞŝƌŽŶƚĞdžƚ
DĂƉƐ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ƐƚĞƉ ĨƵƌƚŚĞƌ ĂƐĞĚ ŽŶ ĂĚĞĞƉĞƌůŝƚĞƌĂƚƵƌĞƌĞǀŝĞǁƚŚĞLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚĂ ůŝƐƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĞŝŐŚƚ ƉƌŝŵĂƌLJ ĨĂĐƚŽƌƐ ƚŚĂƚĚĞĮŶĞ Ă ŚĞĂůƚŚLJ ĐŝƚLJ dŚĞLJ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞƐĞĞŝŐŚƚĨĂĐƚŽƌƐĂƐƚŚĞďĂƐĞůŝŶĞĨŽƌĂŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƚŽĂƐƐĞƐƚŚĞƚŽƉŵĞƚƌŽƉŽůŝƚĂŶƌĞŐŝŽŶƐ
ĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚdŚĞLJĐŽůŽƌĐŽĚĞĚĞĂĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŽƌŇŽǁĞƌƉĞƚĂůͿŝŶƚŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ ďĂƐĞĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů ŝŵƉĂĐƚ ŽĨĐŚĂŶŐĞ ĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ŶĞdžƚ ϮϬ LJĞĂƌƐŶ ŽƚŚĞƌǁŽƌĚƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŝƟĞƐ Ăůů ƐŚĂƌĞĚ ƚŚĞƐĂŵĞ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ ďƵƚ ƐŚŽǁĞĚ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĐŽůŽƌĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶƐhƐŝŶŐƐƵďũĞĐƟǀĞƌĂŶŬŝŶŐƐƚŚĞƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐ
ŵĂĚĞĂĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŐƌĞĞŶĨŽƌůŽǁĐŚĂŶŐĞĂŶŽƌĂŶŐĞĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŝŶĚŝĐĂƚĞĚŵŽĚĞƌĂƚĞĐŚĂŶŐĞ ĂŶĚ Ă ƌĞĚ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶ ƐŚŽǁĞĚŚŝŐŚĐŚĂŶŐĞŌĞƌƚŚŝƐĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞƚŚĞƚĞĂŵƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚĂŶŽƚŚĞƌŝŶƐŝŐŚƚŶŽŶĞŽĨƚŚĞŵĞƚƌŽƌĞŐŝŽŶƐŚĂĚ ƚŚĞƐĂŵĞĐŽůŽƌŵĂƉƉŝŶŐ ĨŽƌĐŚĂŶŐĞůůƚŚĞĐŝƟĞƐŚĂĚĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĐŽůŽƌĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶǁŚŝĐŚƌĂŝƐĞĚŶĞǁƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ǀĂůƵĞ ŽĨ Ă ŐĞŶĞƌŝĐ ŵŽĚĞů ĨŽƌƵƌďĂŶ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƚŚĞŶ ďƌŽƵŐŚƚŵŽƌĞĞŶůŝŐŚƚĞŶĞĚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐďĂĐŬƚŽƚŚĞŝƌƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐƉŽŶƐŽƌ
66
We realize a blend of data-driven and lifestyle-driven elements define a perfect city
As a variation of
the tool we changed
the background
color of each
dimension which
could show varying
levels of expected
change
67
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ƌĂǁďŝŐŵĂƉƐƉƌĞĨĞƌĂďůLJŽŶĂ
ǁŚŝƚĞďŽĂƌĚŽƌůĂƌŐĞŇŝƉĐŚĂƌƚƐŽĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞĐĂŶƐĞĞĂŶĚĐŽŵŵĞŶƚŽŶƚŚĞǀĂƌŝŽƵƐĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĞĂƐŝůLJ
ͻ ŽŶƚǁŽƌƌLJĂďŽƵƚŬĞĞƉŝŶŐƚŚĞĞŝŐŚƚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĂƚƚŚĞƐĂŵĞůĞǀĞůdŚĞŵĂŝŶŽďũĞĐƟǀĞŝƐƚŽĐĂƉƚƵƌĞǁŚĂƚŝƐŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚŝŶĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ
ͻ EŽƚĞĂŶLJƌĞůĂƚĞĚƉŽŝŶƚƐĂŶĚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ^ŽŵĞƟŵĞƐƚŚĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĂƌĞƚŚĞŵŽƐƚŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƟŶŐƚŽƌĞǀŝƐŝƚůĂƚĞƌ ǁŚĞŶLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚƐŵŽƌĞĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞƉƌŽďůĞŵƐƉĂĐĞĂŶĚŝƐƐƵĞƐ
ͻ ŽŶƐŝĚĞƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŶŐĂŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉĨƌŽŵĂŶŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƌ ƐǀŝĞǁƐƵĐŚĂƐĂƐƵƉƉůŝĞƌŽƌĞŶĚƵƐĞƌ ƚŽƐĞĞŚŽǁƚŚĞŝƌƚŽƉĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĐŽŵƉĂƌĞƚŽĂŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƚĞĂŵŽƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂůƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ
ͻ zŽƵĐĂŶĂůǁĂLJƐĐƌĞĂƚĞŵŽƌĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƐzŽƵŵĂLJǁĂŶƚƚŽƉĂƵƐĞŵŝĚǁĂLJƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŽŶĞŵĂƉƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂƐĞĐŽŶĚŵĂƉŝŶŽƌĚĞƌŶŽƚƚŽůŽƐĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĐŽŶǀĞƌƐĂƟŽŶŇŽǁ
ͻ ĂŶŐŽƌƉŽƐƚĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚŵĂƉƐŝŶƉƵďůŝĐǀŝĞǁƐƵĐŚĂƐŶĞĂƌLJŽƵƌĚĞƐŬŶƚŚŝƐǁĂLJ LJŽƵĐĂŶŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĐŽŶƟŶƵŽƵƐŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐǁŝƚŚŽƚŚĞƌƐĂƐǁĞůůĂƐĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƌĞŇĞĐƟŽŶĂŶĚŝŶĐƵďĂƟŽŶĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƚŽƉŝĐ
ZampgtdKEWhat is the proposed topic
Why do you want to pursue it
68
Additional examples
ŵĂũŽƌ ĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌ ĞůĞĐƚƌŽŶŝĐƐ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƵƐĞĚ ĂŽŶƚĞdžƚ DĂƉ ƚŽ ƌĞǀŝĞǁ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚ ƉŽƌƞŽůŝŽĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌŝŶŐƐŽŵĞŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐŝŶƉƌŝŽƌŝƟĞƐ
Ŷ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ƉŽůŝĐĞ ĨŽƌĐĞ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚ ŚŽǁĚĞĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐƐƚĂƚĞĨƵŶĚƐǁŽƵůĚŝŵƉĂĐƚĂƌĂŶŐĞŽĨĨƵƚƵƌĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŶĞĞĚƐ
KZEgt^D^^E
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carletonϲϵ
CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet
70
Progression Curves represent the evolution of changes in terms of [LJOUVSVNPJHSZVJPHSHUKV[OLYAumlS[LYZ
Progression Curves
WhEn to use itͻ dŽƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚƚŚĞƉĂƩĞƌŶŽĨĞǀĞŶƚƐ
ĨŽƌĂƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌƚŽƉŝĐĂŶĚŚŽǁƚŚĞƐĞĞǀĞŶƚƐŚĂǀĞůĞĚƚŽŝƚƐĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƐƚĂƚĞ
WhY itrsquos helpfulWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶ ƵƌǀĞƐ ƐŚŽǁ ǁŚĂƚ ĐŚĂŶŐĞƐǁŚĞŶ dŚĞLJ ĂƌĞ Ă ǀĂƌŝĂŶƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐůĂƐƐŝĐƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ĂĚŽƉƟŽŶ ůŝĨĞĐLJĐůĞ ǁŚŝĐŚŽƵƚůŝŶĞƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵŵŽŶ ƐƚĂŐĞƐ ŽĨ ƵƐĞƌĂĚŽƉƟŽŶŽǀĞƌƟŵĞƐLJŽƵƉůŽƚŵƵůƟƉůĞĞǀĞŶŽǀĞƌͲůĂƉƉŝŶŐ
ĐƵƌǀĞƐĐĞƌƚĂŝŶƉĂƩĞƌŶƐŵĂLJĞŵĞƌŐĞampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞLJŽƵŵĂLJĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌƚŚĂƚĂŵŝŶŝŵƵŵŽƌ ŵĂdžŝŵƵŵͿ ĚƵƌĂƟŽŶ ƌĞŐƵůĂƌůLJ ŽĐĐƵƌƐďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƚǁŽ ƉŽŝŶƚƐ ƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ƚŚĞ ƚLJƉŝĐĂůĐůŝŶŝĐĂů ƚƌŝĂů ƉĞƌŝŽĚ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ h^ ampĞĚĞƌĂůƌƵŐĚŵŝŶŝƐƚƌĂƟŽŶĂůůŽǁŝŶŐLJŽƵƚŽƉůĂŶĨŽƌƐŝŵŝůĂƌŝŶƚĞƌǀĂůƐŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƐĂŶŽƚŚĞƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞŝĨLJŽƵƉůŽƩĞĚƚŚĞ
ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨƉĂLJŵĞŶƚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐ ŝŶŽƌĚĞƌ ƚŽ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů ďĂŶŬŝŶŐLJŽƵǁŽƵůĚůĞĂƌŶƚŚĂƚƚŚĞƌĞŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶŽŶůLJ
Ă ĨĞǁ ŵĂũŽƌ ďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƐ ŝŶ ŚŝƐƚŽƌLJͶƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ƐŵĂƌƚ ĐĂƌĚƐ ǁŝƚŚŵŝĐƌŽĐŚŝƉƐ ŝŶƚŚĞϭϵϵϬƐDŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ůĂƚĞƌƐƚĂŐĞƐďƵŝůĚŽŶĞĂƌůŝĞƌ
ƐƚĂŐĞƐ Ŷ ŵĂŶLJ ĐĂƐĞƐ ĐĞƌƚĂŝŶ ƐƚĞƉƐĐĂŶŶŽƚ ďĞ ƐŬŝƉƉĞĚ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ LJŽƵƌ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJŽƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐŽŝĨLJŽƵĞdžƉĞĐƚĂƐŝŵŝůĂƌƉĂƩĞƌŶŽĨĞǀĞŶƚƐƚŽĐŽŶƟŶƵĞŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞLJŽƵ ĐĂŶ ĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞǁŚŝĐŚ ƐƚĞƉǁŝůů ůŝŬĞůLJŚĂƉƉĞŶ ŶĞdžƚ dŚŝƐ ŝƐ ƵƐĞĨƵů ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞǁŚĞŶƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂŚĞĂĚ
What you getWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶ ƵƌǀĞƐ ĞdžƚĞŶĚƐ ƚŚĞ ĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌƟŵĞůŝŶĞ dŚŝƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƉƵƚƐ ĞǀĞŶƚƟŵĞůŝŶĞƐ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ůŝĨĞĐLJĐůĞƐ ĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƐ ŝŶ ŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂů ĐŽŶƚĞdžƚƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚ ƚŽ LJŽƵƌ ƚŽƉŝĐ LJ ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJŝŶŐƌĞƉĞĂƚĞĚ ƉĂƩĞƌŶƐ LJŽƵ ŬŶŽǁ ǁŚĂƚ ƚŽĞdžƉĞĐƚŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞdŚĞƵƐĞŽĨŵƵůƟƉůĞůĂLJĞƌƐŽĨĚĂƚĂŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƉĂƩĞƌŶƐƚŚĂƚŵŝŐŚƚ ŚĂǀĞ ĞƐĐĂƉĞĚ LJŽƵƌ ĂƩĞŶƟŽŶƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐůLJ
71
^ŽƵƌĐĞ^ĂŶƚŚŝůĂLJĂƉĞƌƵŵĂů^ƚĂŶĨŽƌĚhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ DϰϭϬϮϬϬϴ
Letrsquos look at an exampleŶĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐŐƌĂĚƵĂƚĞƐƚƵĚĞŶƚǁĂŶƚĞĚƚŽŝŶǀĞƐƟŐĂƚĞƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞŽĨƌŽďŽƟĐƐƵƌŐĞƌLJ ĞƐƉĞĐŝĂůůLJƵƐŝŶŐŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟǀĞƚŽƵĐŚƐĐƌĞĞŶƐŝŶϮϬLJĞĂƌƐ^ŚĞŚĂĚŚĂŶĚƐͲŽŶĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞŝŶƚŚĞƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚůĂďĂŶĚĂůƐŽĂƐĂŶĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌĨŽƌƚǁŽŵĞĚŝĂůĚĞǀŝĐĞĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐdŚĞ ƐƚƵĚĞŶƚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ ŵƵůƟƉůĞ
WƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶ ƵƌǀĞƐ ƚŽ ĐĂƉƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĞĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ ƐƚĂƚĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĮĞůĚ ĂƐ ĚĞĮŶĞĚŝŶ ϮϬϬϴƌĂǁŝŶŐ ĨƌŽŵĂŵŝdžŽĨ ƉƌŝŵĂƌLJĂŶĚ ƐĞĐŽŶĚĂƌLJ ƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ ƉůƵƐ ŚĞƌŽǁŶ ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ ƐŚĞ ůŽŽŬĞĚ Ăƚ ƚŚĞĞǀŽůƵƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƉƌŽũĞĐƟŽŶͲďĂƐĞĚ ĚŝƐƉůĂLJƐŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟǀĞ ĚŝƐƉůĂLJƐ ŚĂƉƟĐ ŝŶƚĞƌĨĂĐĞƐŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂůƌŽďŽƚĂƌŵƐŵŝŶŝŵĂůůLJ ŝŶǀĂƐŝǀĞƐƵƌŐĞƌLJ ƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƐ ŵĞĚŝĐĂů ƌŽďŽƚƐ ĂŶĚŵĞĚŝĐĂů ŝŵĂŐŝŶŐͶƚƌĂĐŝŶŐ ŵĂŶLJ ŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂůĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƐďĂĐŬƚŽƚŚĞϭϵϱϬƐ 1
(1990-
2007-
( 1995-
137702007-
amp2007-
2007-
+1987-
(1986-
1983-
2007-
( (2007-
2004-
1
72
Instructionsϭ ĚĞŶƟĨLJLJŽƵƌƐƚĂƌƟŶŐƚŽƉŝĐ
zŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĐŽƵůĚĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞƉĂƐƚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƐĨŽƌLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ƐŽĐŝĞƚLJ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂƌĞĂĞƚĐ^ŽŵĞƚĞĂŵƐƌĞĨĞƌƚŽƚŚĞŝƌůĂƐƚŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐĂWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƉĞƌĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶ
Ϯ ƌĂǁĂůŽŶŐƐͲĐƵƌǀĞzŽƵĐĂŶĂůǁĂLJƐĞdžƚĞŶĚƚŚŝƐĐƵƌǀĞŽƌůŝŶŬŽƚŚĞƌĐƵƌǀĞƐƚŽŝƚůĂƚĞƌ dŚĞŚĞŝŐŚƚŽƌůĞŶŐƚŚŽĨƚŚĞĐƵƌǀĞĂƌĞůĂƌŐĞůLJƐLJŵďŽůŝĐ
ϯ ĞŐŝŶƉůŽƫŶŐŬĞLJĞǀĞŶƚƐƚŚĂƚŚĂǀĞŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞĚŽƌĐŚĂŶŐĞĚŝŶƚŚĂƚƐƉĂĐĞĞƐƟŵĂƟŶŐĚĂƚĞƐǁŚĞŶŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌLJdŚĞĨĂƌƚŚĞƐƚůĞŌĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚŽŶƚŚĞĐƵƌǀĞŝƐƐĞƚďLJLJŽƵŐŽŝŶŐĂƐĨĂƌďĂĐŬŝŶƟŵĞĂƐLJŽƵǁŝƐŚdŚĞĨĂƌƚŚĞƐƚƌŝŐŚƚĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐƚŽĚĂLJďĞĐĂƵƐĞLJŽƵĂƌĞŶŽƚůŽŽŬŝŶŐƚŽƉƌŽũĞĐƚƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ
ϰ ĚĚŵŽƌĞĚĂƚĂƉŽŝŶƚƐĂůŽŶŐƚŚĞĐƵƌǀĞzŽƵŵĂLJŵŝdžĂǀĂƌŝĞƚLJŽĨĚĂƚĂƉŽŝŶƚƐƐƵĐŚĂƐŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂůĚĂƚĞƐŵĂũŽƌĞǀĞŶƚƐƉĞŽƉůĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐĂŶĚƐŽĐŝĂůŵŽǀĞŵĞŶƚƐ
ϱ ƌĂǁŵŽƌĞĐƵƌǀĞƐƚŚĂƚŝŶƚĞƌƐĞĐƚĞdžƚĞŶĚĂŶĚĞǀĞŶŽǀĞƌůĂƉǁŝƚŚLJŽƵƌĮƌƐƚĐƵƌǀĞ
ї ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ ĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚŝĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶĚŝĚLJŽƵďĞŐŝŶ
ǁŝƚŚtŚLJͻ tŚŽĐĂŶLJŽƵĐŽŶƚĂĐƚƚŽǀĞƌŝĨLJ
ƟŵĞůŝŶĞƐĂŶĚĮůůŝŶĂŶLJŐĂƉƐͻ ƌĞLJŽƵƐƵƌƉƌŝƐĞĚďLJŚŽǁůŽŶŐ
ŽƌƋƵŝĐŬůLJͿƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐƚĂŬĞƐͻ tĂƐŝƚĞĂƐŝĞƌƚŽĂĚĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ
ĂŶĚĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵǁĂƐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůůLJŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚŝŶtŚLJ
73 1313
1 After reviewing my Context Map I decide to
look at the evolution of interactive touchscreens
for my first Progression
Curve
2 I draw a wavy line quickly
knowing that I can always extend
an end point or format later
4 I add more data points from history
realizing that I will want to continue
extending this curve during the course of
my research program
3 I keep my first pass simple noting major developments and dates that help me understand how the field has developed
13
74
Drawing insights amp implicationsƐ ƉĂƌƚ ŽĨ ŚĞƌ ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ƚŚĞ ŐƌĂĚƵĂƚĞƐƚƵĚĞŶƚ ŝĚĞŶƟĮĞĚ ƚŚĞ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ ŵĂũŽƌƉůĂLJĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉƵƚĞƌ ŐĂŵŝŶŐ ĂŶĚƐĞƌǀŝĐĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĞƐǁŚŝĐŚŐĂǀĞŚĞƌĂƐŚŽƌƚůŝƐƚŽĨĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐƚŽǁĂƚĐŚĂƐĮĞůĚůĞĂĚĞƌƐŶĂĚĚŝƟŽŶƚŚĞĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞŚĞůƉĞĚŚĞƌƚŽ
ƌĞĮŶĞ ŚĞƌ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ƐŚĂƉŝŶŐŚĞƌƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ƚŽǁĂƌĚĮŶĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƌŝŐŚƚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞƚŚƌĞĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐǁĞƌĞ ƐŚĂƌƉĞŶĞĚ ƚŽ ĂͿ Žǁ ĚŽ ĚŽĐƚŽƌƐƐĞĞ ĂŶĚ ĨĞĞů ƚŚĞ ƉĂƟĞŶƚƐ ĂŶĂƚŽŵLJĚƵƌŝŶŐ ŵŝŶŝŵĂůůLJ ŝŶǀĂƐŝǀĞ ƐƵƌŐĞƌLJ ďͿtŚĂƚ ĂƌĞ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐ ǁŝƚŚ ƚĞůĞͲŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ĐͿ tŚĂƚ ĂƌĞ ƐŽŵĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞƐŝŶŵĞĚŝĐĂůŝŵĂŐŝŶŐ
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ EĞǁƐĂƌƟĐůĞƐĂŶĚĐŽŵƉĂŶLJƟŵĞͲ
ůŝŶĞƐĐĂŶƉƌŽǀŝĚĞŚĞůƉĨƵůĚĂƚĂŽŌĞŶůŝƐƟŶŐŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐĂŶĚĚĂƚĞƐ
ͻ ŽŶƚƌĞůLJĞŶƟƌĞůLJŽŶƚĞĂŵŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞǁŚŝĐŚĐĂŶƐŽŵĞƟŵĞƐƐĞƌǀĞƚŽǀĂůŝĚĂƚĞĞdžŝƐƟŶŐďŝĂƐĞƐ
ͻ KůĚĞƌĞdžƉĞƌƚƐŵĂLJĮŶĚƚŚŝƐĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞĞĂƐŝĞƌƚŽĚŽďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞLJƚLJƉŝĐĂůůLJŚĂǀĞŵŽƌĞƐƚŽƌŝĞƐĂŶĚůŝĨĞĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƐƚŽĚƌĂǁŽŶƚŚĂŶLJŽƵŶŐĞƌĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐ
ͻ DĂŶLJƉƌŽũĞĐƚƚĞĂŵƐĐĂŶƚƌĂĐĞƚŚĞŝƌƟŵĞůŝŶĞƐďĂĐŬƚŽƌĞĞŬŚŝƐƚŽƌLJŽƌ^ŚĂŬĞƐƉĞĂƌĞĂŶůŝƚĞƌĂƚƵƌĞdŚŝƐƐŚŽƵůĚŶƚďĞĂƐƵƌƉƌŝƐĞDĂŶLJĂƐƉĞĐƚƐŽĨŚƵŵĂŶŝƚLJŚĂǀĞƚŚĞŝƌƌŽŽƚƐŝŶƚŚĞƐĞƵŶŝǀĞƌƐĂůĂĐĐŽƵŶƚƐ
ͻ dŚĞĐƵƌǀĞŚĞŝŐŚƚŝƐƐLJŵďŽůŝĐĨŽƌĐŚĂŶŐĞƐŽŵĞƉĞŽƉůĞůŝŬĞƚŽĚƌĂǁƚĂůůĞƌĞůĞǀĂƟŽŶƐƌĞůĂƚĞĚƚŽƚŚĞǀĂƌLJŝŶŐůĞǀĞůƐŽĨĂĚŽƉƟŽŶŽƌŐƌŽǁƚŚdŚĂƚŝƐŽƉƟŽŶĂůĞdžƚƌĂǁŽƌŬ
ZampgtdKEWho are some experts you
can ask for their wisdom
75 1313
This method helps me
become a fast expert of
this topic allowing me
to quickly identify the
major players in the
field at different points
Overall I am able to refine my
questions for finding potential
future applications in robotic
surgery
13
76
Additional examples
ƚƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚĂƟŽŶƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƌŝŶ ^ŽƵƚŚ ĨƌŝĐĂ ĞdžĂŵŝŶĞĚ ƚŚĞĞǀŽůƵƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞŝƌŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĚƌĂǁŝŶŐĚŽƩĞĚ ůŝŶĞƐ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƌĞůĂƚĞĚĞǀĞŶƚƐĂŶĚĞƌĂƐ
ƚĞĂŵĨƌŽŵĂƵƌŽƉĞĂŶĐŽŶƐƵůƟŶŐĮƌŵ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐĞĚ ƚŚĞ ĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ ĮĞůĚŽĨĐůŽƵĚĐŽŵƉƵƟŶŐƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐƐĞĞŝŶŐǁŚŝĐŚ ĂƌĞĂƐ ĐŚĂŶŐĞĚ ŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton77
PROGRESSION CURVES | method worksheet
78
Ɛ ƚŚĞ ampŝŶŶŝƐŚ ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐ ĂŐĞŶĐLJ ĨŽƌƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ dĞŬĞƐ ŝƐƚŚĞ ŵŽƐƚ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ƉƵďůŝĐůLJ ĨƵŶĚĞĚĞdžƉĞƌƚ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ĨŽƌ ĮŶĂŶĐŝŶŐƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝŶ ampŝŶůĂŶĚ dŚĞ ĂŐĞŶĐLJ ƐƚƐ ǁŝĚĞͲƌĂŶŐŝŶŐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ ŝŶ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƟĞƐ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ĂŶĚ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐĞĐƚŽƌƐ ĂĐƌŽƐƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ dĂŬŝŶŐ ĂďƌŽĂĚͲďĂƐĞĚ ǀŝĞǁ ŽŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ dĞŬĞƐĨƵŶĚƐ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĐĂů ďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƐ ĂŶĚĂůƐŽ ĞŵƉŚĂƐŝnjĞƐ ƚŚĞ ƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶĐĞ ŽĨƐĞƌǀŝĐĞͲƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ĚĞƐŝŐŶ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ĂŶĚƐŽĐŝĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐ ǀĞƌLJ LJĞĂƌ dĞŬĞƐĮŶĂŶĐĞƐ ƐŽŵĞ ϭϱϬϬ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐĂŶĚĂůŵŽƐƚϲϬϬƉƵďůŝĐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐ Ăƚ ƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚŝŶƐƟƚƵƚĞƐĂŶĚƉŽůLJƚĞĐŚŶŝĐƐ^ŝŶĐĞ ϮϬϬϳ dĞŬĞƐ ŚĂƐ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ŽŶ
ƌĞŶĞǁŝŶŐ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶďLJ ĚŝŐŝƚĂů ŵĞĂŶƐ KŶĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŵĂũŽƌĞdžŝƐƟŶŐ ŝŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚƐ ƵŶĚĞƌ ƚŚŝƐ ĨŽĐƵƐĂƌĞĂ ŚĂƐ ďĞĞŶ ƚŚĞ hďŝĐŽŵͶŵďĞĚĚĞĚd ϮϬϬϳͲϮϬϭϯ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ hďŝĐŽŵ ǁĂƐďƵŝůƚ ĨƌŽŵŽǀĞƌϯϬϬƉƵďůŝĐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂů ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĂŶĚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ
ZΘͿƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐŚĂǀŝŶŐŽǀĞƌΦϮϬϬŵŝůůŝŽŶƉƌŽũĞĐƚǀŽůƵŵĞhďŝĐŽŵƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐĨŽĐƵƐĞĚŽŶ ďƵŝůĚŝŶŐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĐŽŵƉĞƚĞŶĐĞƐ ĂŶĚĚĞŵŽŶƐƚƌĂƟŶŐ ŶĞǁ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐ ďĂƐĞĚ ŽŶĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƚĞĚ ĐŽŵƉƵƟŶŐ ĂŶĚ ĞŵďĞĚĚĞĚŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ ĐŽŵƉƵƚĞƌ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ dͿƐLJƐƚĞŵƐ ϭϯͲƉĞƌƐŽŶ ƐƚĞĞƌŝŶŐ ŐƌŽƵƉǁŚŽƐĞŵĞŵďĞƌƐĐĂŵĞ ĨƌŽŵĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚŝŶƐƟƚƵƟŽŶƐĂŶĚdĞŬĞƐĂĚǀŝƐĞĚƚŚĞŽǀĞƌĂůůĚŝƌĞĐƟŽŶĂŶĚĞdžĞĐƵƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞhďŝĐŽŵƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ
The challenge Following the steps of a successful research programƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌĂŶĚĐŚŝĞĨƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂĚǀŝƐĞƌ Ăƚ dĞŬĞƐ ltŝŵŵŽ ŚŽůĂ ǁĂƐƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďůĞ ĨŽƌ ŵĂŶĂŐŝŶŐ hďŝĐŽŵ ĂƐŽŶĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĂŐĞŶĐLJ Ɛ ůĂƌŐĞƐƚ ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐ ŌĞƌ ŶĞĂƌůLJ ĮǀĞƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵů LJĞĂƌƐŚŽůĂŶŽǁ ĨĂĐĞĚ ĂďŝŐĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞǁŚĂƚǁĂƐŶĞdžƚĂŌĞƌhďŝĐŽŵdŚĞ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ǁŽƵůĚ ĐŽŶĐůƵĚĞ ŝŶ ϮϬϭϯůĞĂǀŝŶŐŽƉĞŶŵĂŶLJƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐƚŚĂƚĐŽƵůĚďĞĂƉƉůŝĞĚƚŽĂŶĞǁƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ
CASE STUDY | Crafting a new vision after Ubicom
ŚŽůĂ ǁŝƐŚĞĚ ƚŽ ƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶ Ă ŶĞǁƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐŽŝƚĐŽƵůĚŵĞĞƚƚŚĞĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐŽĨ ƚŽŵŽƌƌŽǁ ŝŶ ƚĞƌŵƐŽĨ ďŽƚŚ ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĂŶĚ ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚ Ğ ŬŶĞǁ ƚŚĂƚ ƐŝŵƉůLJĐŽƉLJŝŶŐƚŚĞƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨŽƌŵƵůĂŽĨhďŝĐŽŵ ǁŽƵůĚ ŶŽƚ ŐƵĂƌĂŶƚĞĞ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌĮǀĞ LJĞĂƌƐŽĨ ƐƵĐĐĞƐƐďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚŚĂƐƐĞĞŶŵĂŶLJƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚĐŚĂŶŐĞƐƐŝŶĐĞƚŚĞƉƌŽŐƌĂŵǁĂƐŝŶŝƟĂƚĞĚŵŽŶŐ ŵĂŶLJ ƚŽƉŝĐƐ ŚŽůĂ ǁĂŶƚĞĚ
ƚŽ ŬŶŽǁ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƚLJƉĞƐ ŽĨ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐƐŚŽƵůĚ ďĞ ĨƵŶĚĞĚ ǁŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ŽǀĞƌĂůůƐĐĂůĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ĐŽƵůĚ ďĞ ŚŽǁ ƚŽĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟŽŶďĞƚǁĞĞŶĨƵŶĚĞĚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐ ŚŽǁ ƚŽ ƟĞ ŝŶ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ĂůŝŐŶ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵǁŝƚŚ ŐůŽďĂů ƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐǁŚĂƚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐƐŚŽƵůĚďĞĂƚƚŚĞĐĞŶƚĞƌŽĨƚŚĞƉƌŽŐƌĂŵĂŶĚŚŽǁƚŚĞƐĞƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐǁŽƵůĚƌĞůĂƚĞƐLJƐƚĞŵŝĐĂůůLJ
ϳϵ
The approach Two days of expert prototypingŚŽůĂĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŽĂƉƉůLJƚŚĞĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂŶĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŝŶĂŶŝŶƚĞŶƐŝǀĞƚǁŽͲĚĂLJǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƚǁĂƐƐĐŚĞĚƵůĞĚƚŽŽǀĞƌůĂƉǁŝƚŚ Ă ƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐůLJ ƐĐŚĞĚƵůĞĚ hďŝĐŽŵďŽĂƌĚŵĞĞƟŶŐ ƐŽŚĞĐŽƵůĚĞŶƐƵƌĞ ƚŚĂƚƚŚĞƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ƐĐƌŝƟĐĂůƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐǁŽƵůĚďĞ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚ dŚĞ ĮƌƐƚ ĚĂLJ ŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚ ƚŚĞhďŝĐŽŵ ďŽĂƌĚŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ĂƐǁĞůů ĂƐ ŬĞLJƐĞŶŝŽƌ ĞdžĞĐƵƟǀĞƐ ĂŶĚ dĞŬĞƐ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ǁŚŽ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ŽŶ ĞdžƉůŽƌŝŶŐǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ƚŚĞŵĞƐ ĂŶĚ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ŵŽĚĞůƐ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ŶĞdžƚ ƐƚĂŐĞ ŽĨhďŝĐŽŵ ŚŽůĂ ƐĞƚ ƚŚĞ ĚĂLJ Ɛ ĂŐĞŶĚĂ ďLJďƌŝĞŇLJ ƌĞǀŝĞǁŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ Ɛ ŽƌŝŐŝŶĂůǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĂŶĚ ŚŝƐƚŽƌLJ ĂŶĚ ŚĞ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƚŽŚĞůƉĨƌĂŵĞŚŝƐƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ^ĞǀĞƌĂů ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ƌĞƚƵƌŶĞĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ
ƐĞĐŽŶĚ ĚĂLJ ŚĞůƉŝŶŐ ƚŽ ƚƌĂŶƐĨĞƌ ƚŚĞŝƌŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞĂƐǁĞůůĂƐŚĞĂƌĨƌŽŵĂďƌŽĂĚĞƌĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ dŚĞ ƐĞĐŽŶĚ ĚĂLJ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞĚŶĞĂƌůLJƚǁŽĚŽnjĞŶƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƐĐŝĞŶƟƐƚƐĂŶĚƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝƐƚƐǁŚŽĚĞůǀĞĚĚĞĞƉĞƌƚŽ ƉƌŽƉŽƐĞ ƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐ ĂƌĞĂƐ ŽĨ ĨŽĐƵƐĂŶĚ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞ ƐĞĞĚůŝŶŐƐ ĨŽƌ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ
ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚdŚĞďƵůŬŽĨĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶŽĐĐƵƌƌĞĚŝŶŵƵůƟƉůĞƐŵĂůůƚĞĂŵƐƐŽƚŚĂƚĂŐƌĞĂƚĞƌĚŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ ƚŚĞŵĞƐ ĐŽƵůĚ ďĞ ĞdžƉůŽƌĞĚĂŶĚ Ăůů ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ǁŽƵůĚ ŚĂǀĞ ƚŚĞŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƚŽĐŽŶƚƌŝďƵƚĞŚŽůĂ ĨŽƵŶĚ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ƚŽ ďĞ
ŚĞůƉĨƵůŝŶŵĂŶLJǁĂLJƐĞƐĂŝĚƚĂůŝŐŶĞĚƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ƚŽǁĂƌĚĂĐŽŵŵŽŶƚĂƌŐĞƚ ŝŶǀĞƌLJ ĨĂƐƚ ĂŶĚ ĞŶŐĂŐŝŶŐǁĂLJ WƌĂĐƟĐĂůůLJ ŝƚǁĂƐĂůƐŽĞĂƐŝĞƌ ƚŽĂƩƌĂĐƚƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐƚŽĐŽŵŵŝƚƚŽƚǁŽĚĂLJƐĂǁĂLJĨƌŽŵǁŽƌŬǁŚĞŶƚŚĞLJůĞĂƌŶĞĚĂŶĞǁƐĞƚŽĨŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĂŶĚ ĂůƐŽ ŐĂŝŶĞĚ Ă ĨƌĞƐŚ ǀŝĞǁ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞŝƌŽǁŶĐŽŵƉĂŶLJƵƐĞdŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐŽƉĞŶĞĚŶĞǁ ƵŶĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ǁĂLJƐ ƚŽ ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŚĞ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ ƚĂƐŬ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚ ĂŵŽƟǀĂƟŶŐĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞĨŽƌĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞŶĂĚĚŝƟŽŶƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚŽůŽŐLJƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚ
Ă ŇĞdžŝďůĞ ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ ƚŽ ŐƵŝĚĞ ŐƌŽƵƉƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŚŽůĂĂĚĚĞĚĐůĞĂƌƐƚƌĞŶŐƚŚŽĨ ƚŚŝƐ ůĂƌŐĞ ƐĞƚ ŽĨ ƚŽŽůƐ ŝƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĐĂŶ ďĞĂƉƉůŝĞĚ ŝŶ ĂŶLJ ŽƌĚĞƌ Žƌ ůĞǀĞů ŽĨ ĚĞƉƚŚ tŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƚĞĂŵƐƵƐĞĚƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƚŽŐŽĨƌŽŵďƌŽĂĚĐŽŶƚĞdžƚƐƚŽƐƉĞĐŝĮĐƉƌŽďůĞŵƐĞƫŶŐƐ ĚĞƉĞŶĚŝŶŐ ŽŶ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŽďũĞĐƟǀĞƐƌĞĂƟŶŐĂƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞŶĞĐĞƐƐŝƚĂƚĞĚ
Ă ǁŝĚĞ ŝŶŝƟĂů ƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ĂŶĚ ŽŶĐĞƉƌŽŐƌĂŵďŽƵŶĚĂƌŝĞƐǁĞƌĞůŝŐŚƚůLJĚĞĮŶĞĚƚĞĂŵƐ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŽ ƋƵŝĐŬůLJĮŶĚ ƚŚĞ ŬĞLJ ƚĂƌŐĞƚƐ ƚŽ ďĞ ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞĚDŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ůĞŌ ĨƌĞĞĚŽŵ ƚŽĮŶĞͲƚƵŶĞ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐƵůƚƐ ĂůůŽǁŝŶŐ ƌŽŽŵ ĨŽƌƐŵĂůůĞƌŝƚĞŵĚŽĐƵŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶĂƚƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƟŵĞdŚŝƐŚĞůƉĞĚŚŽůĂ ƚĂŬĞƚŚĞƌĞƐƵůƚƐĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ĂŶĚ ŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞ ƚŚĞŵǁŝƚŚůĂƌŐĞƌƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĞīŽƌƚƐĂƚdĞŬĞƐ
80^ŽƵƌĐĞltŝŵŵŽŚŽůĂdĞŬĞƐϮϬϭϮ
The result A new vision a new programdŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚ ƚŚĞĨŽƵŶĚĂƚŝŽŶ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ŶĞǁ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵĨŽĐƵƐ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJ ŬŶŽǁŶ ďLJ ŝƚƐ ǁŽƌŬŝŶŐƚŝƚůĞ ůů dŚŝŶŐƐ ŽŶEĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ dKEͿdŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ŵĂƚĞƌŝĂů ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚƚŚĞ ďĂƐŝƐ ŽĨ ŶĞǁ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ ŐƵŝĚĞůŝŶĞƐĨŽƌ dKE ǁŚŝĐŚ ĨŽĐƵƐĞƐ ŽŶ ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐƐŵĂůů ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ ŽĨ ƐƵďĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚŽƌƐ ϭͲϲƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐͿ Ŷ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ ŽĨ dKEƚŚĞƐĞ ƐƵďĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚŽƌ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ ǁŝůůŝŶŝƚŝĂůůLJ ƐƵƉƉŽƌƚ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂĐƚŝǀŝƚŝĞƐŽĨ ůĂƌŐĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŶ ďĞĐŽŵĞĚĞĚŝĐĂƚĞĚ ƐƵďĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚŽƌƐ ŝŶ ůĂƚĞƌƐƚĂŐĞƐŚŽůĂĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĂƚƚŚŝƐŵŽĚĞůǁŝůůƚƌƵůLJŵŽƚŝǀĂƚĞƚŚĞĐŽͲĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨ ŝŶƚĞůůĞĐƚƵĂů ƉƌŽƉĞƌƚLJ WͿ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶĚŝĨĨĞƌĞŶƚ ƐƵďĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚŽƌƐ ĂŶĚ ůĂƌŐĞĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚŝŽŶƐ ƚ ǁŝůů ƐƚƌĞŶŐƚŚĞŶ ƚŚĞƉŽƐŝƚŝŽŶ ŽĨ ƐŵĂůů ĂŶĚ ŵĞĚŝƵŵ ƐŝnjĞĚĞŶƚĞƌƉƌŝƐĞƐ ^DƐͿ ďLJ ŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚŝŶŐƚŚĞŵ ŝŶƚŽĂŶ WͲďĂƐĞĚĐůƵƐƚĞƌŽĨŽƚŚĞƌ^DƐ ĂŶĚ ůĂƌŐĞ ĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚŝŽŶƐ dŚĞƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ŝƐ ĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶĞĚ ƚŽ ĂůƐŽ ĨƵŶĚ
ƚŚĞ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ ŶĞǁ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŝŽŶĐůƵƐƚĞƌƐƚŚĂƚĐƌŽƐƐŶĂƚŝŽŶĂůďŽƌĚĞƌƐƐŵĂůůĞƌƐĞƚŽĨŵĞƚŚŽĚƐǁŝůůĐŽŶƚŝŶƵĞ
ƚŽ ƌĞĨŝŶĞ ƚŚĞdKE ǀŝƐŝŽŶKŶĞ ŝĚĞĂ ŝƐƚŽ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ Ă ƐĞƚ ŽĨ ŐƌĂŶĚ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐƚŚĂƚ ǁŝůů ƚŚĞŶ ŝŶĨŽƌŵ ŵŽƌĞ ƐƉĞĐŝĨŝĐĨƵŶĚŝŶŐ ĞĨĨŽƌƚƐ ŝŶ ĚŝĨĨĞƌĞŶƚ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂůƐĞĐƚŽƌƐ Ŷ ƉĂƌƚŝĐƵůĂƌ ŚŽůĂ ƐĞĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ
ƚŚĞZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚǁŝůůŚĞůƉǀĂůŝĚĂƚĞƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJƉŽƚĞŶƚŝĂůŽĨdKEƐŐƌĂŶĚĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐgtĂƐƚůLJŚŽůĂŝŶƚĞŶĚƐƚŽƵƐĞƚŚĞ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŝŽŶ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĂƐǀŝƐƵĂůƚĞŵƉůĂƚĞƐƚŽĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚĞƚŚĞŶĞǁƉƌŽŐƌĂŵĂŶĚ ŝƚƐ ŽƵƚĐŽŵĞƐǁŝƚŚŝŶdĞŬĞƐĂŶĚƚŽŽƚŚĞƌƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐ
$+13
13+ amp
$amp
$13$
$
)13
$
13
1313-13+
13 13+ amp
$1313+$
amp $ 1313(
( $ $ (
13
81
Janus Cones looks backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events
Janus Cones
WhEn to use itͻ dŽďĞĐŽŵĞĂĨĂƐƚĞdžƉĞƌƚŽĨLJŽƵƌ
ƚŽƉŝĐ ƐďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚͻ dŽĚŝƐĐĞƌŶĂƉŽƐƐŝďůĞƉĂƩĞƌŶŽĨ
ƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐĂŵŽŶŐŵĂŶLJƌĞůĂƚĞĚĂŶĚĞǀĞŶƵŶƌĞůĂƚĞĚͿĞǀĞŶƚƐ
WhY itrsquos helpfulŝƐƚŽƌLJ ŝƐ ŽŌĞŶ ƚŽůĚ ďLJ ƚŚĞ ǁŝŶŶĞƌƐǁŚŽ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚ ŽŶĞ ǀŝĞǁ ŽĨ ĂŶ ĞǀĞŶƚdŚĞƌĞĂƌĞĂůǁĂLJƐŽƚŚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐdŚĞĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ŽǀĞƌĐŽŵĞƐ ƚŚĞ ůŝŵŝƚƐŽĨ Ă ƐƵƌǀŝǀŽƌ Ɛ ďŝĂƐ ďLJ ŚĞůƉŝŶŐ LJŽƵ ƐĞĞŵƵůƟƉůĞ ĞǀĞŶƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ ŚĂǀĞ ĐŽŶǀĞƌŐĞĚƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĚŽŵŝŶĂŶƚ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƟŵĞdŚĞĐĞŶƚĞƌŽĨƚǁŽĐŽŶĞƐŵĂƌŬƐƚŽĚĂLJ
dŚĞůĞŌĐŽŶĞĨĂĐĞƐƚŚĞƉĂƐƚdŚĞĨƵƌƚŚĞƌďĂĐŬ ŝŶ ƟŵĞ LJŽƵ ŐŽ ƚŚĞ ĨƵnjnjŝĞƌ ŚƵŵĂŶŵĞŵŽƌLJ ďĞĐŽŵĞƐ dŚĞ ƌŝŐŚƚ ĐŽŶĞ ĨĂĐĞƐĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ ŝŶ ƟŵĞ ĞƋƵĂůůLJ ŵƵƌŬLJ ĂŶĚƵŶŬŶŽǁĂďůĞƚŚĞĨƵƌƚŚĞƌŽƵƚ ŝŶƟŵĞLJŽƵŐŽͶǁŚĂƚĨƵƚƵƌŝƐƚƐůŝŬĞƚŽĐĂůůĂĐŽŶĞŽĨƵŶĐĞƌƚĂŝŶƚLJ
ampƵƚƵƌĞ ƉĂƩĞƌŶƐ ŽŌĞŶ ƌĞŇĞĐƚ ďƵƚ ĚŽŶŽ ŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌŝůLJ ƌĞƉĞĂƚ ƉĂƐƚ ƉĂƩĞƌŶƐŽǁĞǀĞƌ ŽŶůLJ ŝŶ ŚŝŶĚƐŝŐŚƚ ĚŽ ŵŽƐƚͿƉĂƩĞƌŶƐ ďĞĐŽŵĞ ĐůĞĂƌ DĂŶLJ ĞǀĞŶƚƐǁŚŝĐŚŵĂLJŶŽƚƐĞĞŵƌĞůĂƚĞĚĐĂŶŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞŽŶĞĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ
What you getĂŶƵƐ ŽŶĞƐ ůĞƚƐ LJŽƵ ƌĞůĞĂƐĞ ƚŚĞ ƐƚƌŝĐƚůŝŶĞĂƌ ĂƐƐƵŵƉƟŽŶƐ ŽĨ ĞǀĞŶƚƐ ĂůůŽǁŝŶŐƚŽ ǀŝĞǁ ŵƵůƟƉůĞ ŽǀĞƌůĂƉƉŝŶŐ ĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌƐĞĐƟŶŐ ĞǀĞŶƚƐ ŝŶ Ă ƐŝŶŐůĞ ƐŚĂƌĞĚĨƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬĂƚŽŶĐĞĂĐŚǀĞƌƟĐĂůŵĂƌŬĞƌĚĞŶŽƚĞƐ Ă ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐ ƟŵĞ ƉĞƌŝŽĚ ƐƵĐŚĂƐ ϱ Žƌ ϭϬ LJĞĂƌƐ ŐŽŝŶŐ ŝŶĐƌĞŵĞŶƚĂůůLJďĂĐŬǁĂƌĚƐŽƌĨŽƌǁĂƌĚƐ
82
Letrsquos look at an exampleŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂůƉƌŽũĞĐƚƚĞĂŵǁĂŶƚĞĚƚŽƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ďĞůŝĞĨƐ ŝŶ ĚƌŝǀŝŶŐĂŶĚ ŚŽǁ ƚŚĞƐĞ ďĞůŝĞĨƐ ŚĂĚ ĞǀŽůǀĞĚ ŝŶƌĞĐĞŶƚ ĚĞĐĂĚĞƐ dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂĚ ĂůƌĞĂĚLJĂŶĂůLJnjĞĚ ƚŚĞ ƵƐƵĂů ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ƚƌĞŶĚƐŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƐƚĂƟƐƟĐƐ ŵĞĚŝĂ ƌĞǀŝĞǁƐ ĂŶĚĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƌĞƉŽƌƚƐ EŽǁ ƚŚĞLJ ŶĞĞĚĞĚ ĂŵŽƌĞ ŚŽůŝƐƟĐ ǀŝĞǁ ǁŚŝĐŚ Ă ƟŵĞůŝŶĞ ŽƌƉŝĞĐŚĂƌƚĐŽƵůĚŶƚƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƐǁĞůůdŚĞƚĞĂŵĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚĂŐƌŽƵƉƐŶĂƉƐŚŽƚ
ŽĨϭϬϬнLJĞĂƌƐŽĨŵĞƌŝĐĂŶďĞůŝĞĨƐƐƚĂƌƟŶŐǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ ŝŶǀĞŶƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĮƌƐƚ ŵŽĚĞƌŶĂƵƚŽŵŽďŝůĞ ĂŶĚ ůĞĂĚŝŶŐ ƵƉ ƚŽ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚǀŝĞǁƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐĂƌ ĂƐ ĂŶ ĞdžƚĞŶƐŝŽŶ ŽĨůŝĨĞƐƚLJůĞdŚƌŽƵŐŚƚŚŝƐĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞƚŚĞƚĞĂŵďĞĐĂŵĞ ĨĂƐƚ ĞdžƉĞƌƚƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƚŽƉŝĐ ĂŶĚŵŽƌĞ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚůLJ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ Ă ƐŚĂƌĞĚůĂŶŐƵĂŐĞƚŚĂƚďƌŽƵŐŚƚƚŚĞŵƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌĂƐĂŐƌŽƵƉĂƚƚŚĞƐƚĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞƉƌŽũĞĐƚ
Mobility as a basic need
1313 13
Parking is an issue
Urban planners design for roads and transport
New paradigm of commuting
Time spent traveling in cars
Traffic jams Rush hour
Concept of alone time in cars with self or others
Variety of car models
Car as a lifestyle status symbol
Dangers of driving
Family trips amp activities by car
Car tinkering passions
Rising costs of car ownership
Cars as displays of wealth
Seat belt safety campaigns
Driving as a rite of passage (first license)
Cars shipped as luggage
Stress of car buying
Infrastructure funding
Multiple cars in a family
Different car by life stage
^ŽƵƌĐĞdĂŵĂƌĂĂƌůĞƚŽŶ^ƚĂŶĨŽƌĚhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ DϰϭϬϮϬϬϴ
83
Instructionsϭ ƌĂǁĂŶŽƉĞŶĐŽŶĞĨĂĐŝŶŐůĞŌƚŽǁĂƌĚƚŚĞ
ƉĂƐƚdŚĞƌŝŐŚƚƉŽŝŶƚƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐƚŽĚĂLJϮ dĂůŬĂďŽƵƚǁŚĂƚŚĂƐŚĂƉƉĞŶĞĚŽƌ
ĐŚĂŶŐĞĚůĞĂĚŝŶŐƵƉƚŽƚŽĚĂLJ ƐǀŝĞǁƐĂŶĚĂƐƐƵŵƉƟŽŶƐĨŽƌLJŽƵƌƚŽƉŝĐĚĞŶƟĨLJŵĂũŽƌƉŽŝŶƚƐŝŶƟŵĞƐƵĐŚĂƐĂĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĨŽƵŶĚŝŶŐĞŐĞŶĞŶƚĞĐŚŝŶƚŚĞďŝŽƚĞĐŚŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJͿWůŽƚƚŚĞƐĞĚĂƚĂƉŽŝŶƚƐŝŶƐŝĚĞƚŚĞĐŽŶĞƉůĂĐŝŶŐĞĂƌůŝĞƌŽŶĞƐĨƵƌƚŚĞƌďĂĐŬŝŶƟŵĞƚŚĂŶŵŽƌĞƌĞĐĞŶƚƉŽŝŶƚƐ
ϯ EŽǁĚƌĂǁĂƉƉƌŽƉƌŝĂƚĞƟŵĞŵĂƌŬĞƌƐƵŶĚĞƌƚŚĞĐŽŶĞƐƵĐŚĂƐϭϵϵϬƐŽƌϮϬϬϬ ƚŽŚĞůƉLJŽƵĐůƵƐƚĞƌĂŶĚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞĚĂƚĂƉŽŝŶƚƐďLJƟŵĞƉĞƌŝŽĚ
ϰ ƌĂǁĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚŝŶŐƟŵĞĂƌĐƐƚŽƚŚŽƐĞĚĂƚĞƐdŚĞƐĞĂƌĐƐǁŝůůďĞǀĞƌƟĐĂů
ϱ ĚĚŵŽƌĞĚĂƚĂƉŽŝŶƚƐƐŽƚŚĂƚLJŽƵĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞĂŶĚĮůůŝŶĂůůƟŵĞƉĞƌŝŽĚƐĂƐŵƵĐŚĂƐƉŽƐƐŝďůĞ
ї ĞĞƚŚĞĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚĚŝĂŐƌĂŵĨŽƌĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞ dŚĞ ŶƵŵďĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJŽŶǁŚĂƚLJŽƵŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ ŽǁĨĂƌďĂĐŬŝŶƟŵĞĚŽLJŽƵƌ
ĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐŐŽtŚLJƚŽƚŚĂƚƉŽŝŶƚŝŶƟŵĞ
ͻ ĨLJŽƵŽǀĞƌůĂŝĚLJŽƵƌWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐŽŶƚŚĞĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐƟŵĞůŝŶĞĚŝĚĂŶLJƚŚŝŶŐƐƵƌƉƌŝƐĞLJŽƵ
ͻ ŝĚLJŽƵƚƌLJĂĚĚŝŶŐĞǀĞŶƚƐƚŚĂƚĐŚĂŶŐĞĚƐŽĐŝĞƚLJ ƐĂƫƚƵĚĞƐƐƵĐŚĂƐƚŚĞƌŝƟƐŚŶǀĂƐŝŽŶͿŽƌŚĂĚůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵĞīĞĐƚƐƐƵĐŚĂƐƚŚĞĚŽƚͲĐŽŵďƵďďůĞͿ
ͻ tŚŽĐĂŶLJŽƵĐŽŶƚĂĐƚƚŽĮůůŝŶŐĂƉƐŝŶLJŽƵƌŵĂƉ
84
Mobility as a basic need
1313 13
Parking is an issue
Urban planners design for roads and transport
New paradigm of commuting
Time spent traveling in cars
Traffic jams Rush hour
Concept of alone time in cars with self or others
Variety of car models
Car as a lifestyle status symbol
Dangers of driving
Family trips amp activities by car
Car tinkering passions
Rising costs of car ownership
Cars as displays of wealth
Seat belt safety campaigns
Driving as a rite of passage (first license)
Cars shipped as luggage
Stress of car buying
Infrastructure funding
Multiple cars in a family
Different car by life stage
1 Our priority is to focus on the
past so we sketch a big cone on
the whiteboard with its nose
pointing right to today
2 One of the first
comments is about
Fordrsquos assembly line
which led to a
consumer choice in cars so we note this
historical point
somewhere far left
inside the cone3 After a few more data points we see the timeframe emerge so we note the major time periods in 20-year increments under the cone
4 We draw vertical arcs across the cone to help
us cluster data points by these time increments
5 We add more data points so that the cone feels complete to our team
85
Drawing insights amp implicationsdŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ĐĂŵĞ ĨƌŽŵ ǀĂƌŝŽƵƐďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚƐƉƌŽĚƵĐƚĂŶĚŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĚĞƐŝŐŶĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ ĂŶĚŵĂƌŬĞƟŶŐ dŚĞ ĂŶƵƐ ŽŶĞƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚĂŶĞƵƚƌĂůĐŽŵŵŽŶŐƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĂƚĂůůŽǁĞĚƚŚĞŵƚŽƐĞƚĂƐŝĚĞƚŚĞŝƌƉƌĞĞdžŝƐƟŶŐĐŽŶĐĞƉƟŽŶƐĂŶĚĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĞďŝĂƐĞƐƐŽƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJĐŽƵůĚĨŽĐƵƐŽŶĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐĂƐŚĂƌĞĚǀŝĞǁ ŽĨ ǁŚĂƚ ŚĂƉƉĞŶĞĚ ƚŽ ĂƌƌŝǀĞ ĂƚƚŽĚĂLJ ƐƐƚĂƚĞŽĨŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞƐ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĞdžĂŵŝŶĞĚ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ
ĂƫƚƵĚĞƐƚŽǁĂƌĚĚƌŝǀŝŶŐĐĂƌƐƚŚĞLJƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ĚĞĮŶŝƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƉƌĞŵŝƵŵ ŚĂƐĐŚĂŶŐĞĚŽǀĞƌƟŵĞƐƚĂƌƟŶŐǁŝƚŚƉƌĞŵŝƵŵĂƐĚŝƐƉůĂLJƐŽĨǁĞĂůƚŚĂŶĚůĂƚĞůLJďĞĐŽŵŝŶŐƉƌĞŵŝƵŵ ĂƐ ĂŶ ĞůŝƚĞ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ dŚĞŝƌƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐŽĨ ƉƌĞŵŝƵŵŚĞůƉĞĚ ƚŚĞŵƐĞĞ ƚŚĂƚ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ĚƌŝǀĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞĂƐǁĞůůĂƐĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚǁŝůůĐŽŶƟŶƵĞƚŽ ĞǀŽůǀĞ ƚŚĞŝƌ ǀŝĞǁƐ ŽĨ ǁŚĂƚ ƉƌĞŵŝƵŵŵĞĂŶƐŝŶĐĂƌƐ
ƚŚŝƌĚ ůĞƐƐŽŶǁĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƐĂǁŚŽǁŵƵĐŚ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶŵĞĚŝĂ ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌůLJŵĂŝŶƐƚƌĞĂŵ ŵŽǀŝĞƐ ĨƌŽŵ ŽůůLJǁŽŽĚŚĂĚ ŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĂƐƐƵŵƉƟŽŶƐŽĨ ƚŚĞŵĞƌŝĐĂŶĚƌŝǀŝŶŐĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŽƵƚĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂů ĞƌĂƐ dŚŝƐ ďŝĂƐ ǁĂƐŶŽƚĂƐĂƉƉĂƌĞŶƚǁŚĞŶƚŚĞLJŚĂĚĂŶĂůLJnjĞĚĞĂƌůŝĞƌĚĂƚĂƌĞƉŽƌƚƐ
ZampgtdKEWho remembers the history
ŝŶLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉĂŶĚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ
86
Mobility as a basic need
1313 13
Parking is an issue
Urban planners design for roads and transport
New paradigm of commuting
Time spent traveling in cars
Traffic jams Rush hour
Concept of alone time in cars with self or others
Variety of car models
Car as a lifestyle status symbol
Dangers of driving
Family trips amp activities by car
Car tinkering passions
Rising costs of car ownership
Cars as displays of wealth
Seat belt safety campaigns
Driving as a rite of passage (first license)
Cars shipped as luggage
Stress of car buying
Infrastructure funding
Multiple cars in a family
Different car by life stage
We discover the majority of our group knows the last 15 years well from personal experience and then relies on
movies and grandparent anecdotes for knowledge about the prior years
We start to see a pattern about the changing definition of ldquopremiumrdquo in cars starting with premium as wealth displays
Due to our grouprsquos varied
backgrounds the Janus
Cones became a useful
neutral tool to bring us
quickly together
87
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ zŽƵƌƚŽƵĐŚƉŽŝŶƚƐŵĂLJŝŶĐůƵĚĞ
ƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚƉƌŽĚƵĐƚůĂƵŶĐŚĞƐĞŐdĂƚĂ ƐEĂŶŽͿŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂůŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐĞŐĨĂůůŽĨĞƌůŝŶǁĂůůͿŵĞĚŝĂĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐĞŐ d ŵŽǀŝĞͿĂŶĚƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƐƚŽƌŝĞƐĞŐŐƌĂŶĚŵĂ ƐĮƌƐƚŵŽďŝůĞƉŚŽŶĞͿͶǁŚĂƚĞǀĞƌŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉďƌŽĂĚĞƌĐŽŶƚĞdžƚĨŽƌLJŽƵƌƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌƚŽƉŝĐ^ĞĞƚŚĞĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚƚĂďůĞĨŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞƚŽƵĐŚƉŽŝŶƚƐ
ͻ zŽƵĐĂŶŽǀĞƌůĂLJŵƵůƟƉůĞWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐŽŶƚŽƉŽĨLJŽƵƌĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐƚŽŚĞůƉLJŽƵƐĞĞŵŽƌĞƉĂƩĞƌŶƐŝŶĐŽŶƚĞdžƚhƐĞƚŚĞĚĂƚĞƐƚŽŚĞůƉLJŽƵĂůŝŐŶƚŚĞƚǁŽŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ
ͻ gtŽŽŬďĂĐŬƚǁŝĐĞĂƚůĞĂƐƚƚǁŝĐĞĂƐĨĂƌĂƐLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƚŽůŽŽŬĂŚĞĂĚdŚŝƐĂĚǀŝĐĞŝƐĂĐŽƌĞƉƌŝŶĐŝƉůĞŽĨŐŽŽĚĨŽƌĞĐĂƐƟŶŐ
ͻ hƐĞƌĞĂůĚĂƚĞƐƐƵĐŚĂƐϮϬϬϱŝŶƐƚĞĂĚŽĨͲϭϬ ƐŽLJŽƵŚĂǀĞĐůĞĂƌƚŽƵĐŚƉŽŝŶƚƐĨŽƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ
ͻ tĞƐƚƌŽŶŐůLJĂĚǀŝƐĞĂůůƵƐĞƌƐƚŽĨŽĐƵƐĮƌƐƚŽŶĐŽŵƉůĞƟŶŐƚŚĞƉĂƐƚůĞŌͿĐŽŶĞďĞĐĂƵƐĞŚŝƐƚŽƌLJƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐƚŚĞďĞƐƚƌĞĐŽƌĚĨŽƌĨƵƚƵƌĞůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐĚǀĂŶĐĞĚƵƐĞƌƐĐĂŶůĞĂƌŶƚŽƉĞŶĐŝůŝŶƉůĂŶŶĞĚŽƌƐĐŚĞĚƵůĞĚĨƵƚƵƌĞĞǀĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞŝƌĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƐZΘƌŽĂĚŵĂƉƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƉƌŽũĞĐƚƉůĂŶƐŽŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƌŝŐŚƚͿĐŽŶĞWůĞĂƐĞŬĞĞƉŝŶŵŝŶĚƚŚĂƚĨƵƚƵƌĞĞǀĞŶƚƐĂƌĞƐŝŵƉůLJƉůĂĐĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐĂŶĚǁŝƐŚĞƐ
ĂƚĞŐŽƌLJ džĂŵƉůĞƚŽƵĐŚƉŽŝŶƚƐ
Company
gt ŽŵƉĂŶLJĨŽƵŶĚŝŶŐgt WƌŽĚƵĐƚůĂƵŶĐŚgt WĂƌƚŶĞƌƐŚŝƉĚĞĂůgt DĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĐŚĂŶŐĞgt ZĞǀĞŶƵĞŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐ
EĂƟŽŶ
gt ŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚĐŚĂŶŐĞgt EĞǁƚƌĞĂƚLJgt ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐĞǀĞŶƚgt DĂũŽƌŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĞǀĞŶƚgt ^ƉŽƌƟŶŐĂĐŚŝĞǀĞŵĞŶƚ
^ŽĐŝĞƚLJgt WŽƉƵůĂƌŵŽǀŝĞgt ^ĐŝĞŶĐĞĮĐƟŽŶŬgt DĂũŽƌĐƵůƚƵƌĂůĞǀĞŶƚgt ƵůƚƵƌĂůĂƫƚƵĚĞŽƌďĞůŝĞĨ
dĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ gt ŶǀĞŶƟŽŶgt WƌŽĚƵĐƚĂĚŽƉƟŽŶ
WĞƌƐŽŶĂůgt ampŝƌƐƚƉƵƌĐŚĂƐĞgt DĂũŽƌůŝĨĞĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶgt ampĂŵŝůLJŵĞŵŽƌŝĞƐ
88
Additional examples
ƵƌŽƉĞĂŶ ŵĞĚŝĂ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƵƐĞĚƚŚĞĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŽĞdžĂŵŝŶĞĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ ŝŶ ǁŽƌŬ ƐƉĂĐĞ ĂŶĚ ǁŽƌŬĐƵůƚƵƌĞĨŽƌĂŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞ
^ŵĂůů ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ŽǁŶĞƌƐ ŝŶ ^ŽƵƚŚĨƌŝĐĂ ƌĞǀŝĞǁĞĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJƐĚƌĂŵĂƟĐ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƐ ƐŝŶĐĞ ƚŚĞϭϵϳϬƐ ĞƐƉĞĐŝĂůůLJ ŝŶ ĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚŝŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
JANUS CONES | method worksheet
ϵϬ
ĨLJŽƵĚŽŶΖƚƚŚŝŶŬĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞLJŽƵĐĂŶŶŽƚŚĂǀĞŽŶĞ
mdashJohn GalsworthyŶŐůŝƐŚǁƌŝƚĞƌ^ǁĂŶ^ŽŶŐϭϵϮϴͿ
ďŝůŝƚLJŝƐŶŽƚŚŝŶŐǁŝƚŚŽƵƚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ͶŶŽŶLJŵŽƵƐ
ŽŌĞŶĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞĚƚŽEĂƉŽůĞŽŶŽŶĂƉĂƌƚĞͿ
ϵϭ
OPPORTUNITYChaptER 4
Shortcuts
Phase II Opportunity 92
Generational Arcs 94
Future User 103
Viewpoint Acting out 113
Futuretelling 114
ϵϮ
Now that you have developed some perspective about your WYVISLTZZWHJLOV^KV`VAumlUKthe emerging opportunity
dŚĞŽďũĞĐƟǀĞ ŝƐ ƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂŶĂďŝůŝƚLJ ƚŽƐĞĞŐƌŽǁƚŚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐƚŚĂƚĞdžŝƐƚƚŽĚĂLJĂŶĚ ĐŽƵůĚ ĞdžƚĞŶĚ ŝŶƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ dŚŝƐƐƚĞƉŝƐĐƌŝƟĐĂůƚŽƐĞůĞĐƟŶŐƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚƉĂƚŚƚŽƉƵƌƐƵĞďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŽĚĂLJ ƐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐďĞĐŽŵĞƚŽŵŽƌƌŽǁ ƐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐdŚŝƐ ƉŚĂƐĞ ŵĂŬĞƐ ƚǁŽ ũƵŵƉƐ ĨƌŽŵ
ƚŚĞ ƉƌŝŽƌ ƉŚĂƐĞ ampŝƌƐƚ LJŽƵ ǁŝůů ŵŽǀĞĨƌŽŵǁŽƌŬŝŶŐŝŶƚŚĞƉĂƐƚŝŶƚŽƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ^ĞĐŽŶĚ LJŽƵǁŝůůŵŽǀĞ ĨƌŽŵ Ă ĨŽĐƵƐ ŽŶƚŚĞƉƌŽďůĞŵƚŽĂĨŽĐƵƐŽŶƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞdŚŝƐ ƉŚĂƐĞ ƚĂŬĞƐ Ă ƵƐĞƌͲĐĞŶƚƌŝĐ
ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ dŚŝƐ ƉŚĂƐĞ ĚĞĮŶĞƐ ƵƐĞƌƐďƌŽĂĚůLJ ǁŚŝĐŚ ŵĂLJ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞ ĞŶĚ ƵƐĞƌƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐƐƵƉƉůŝĞƌƐƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƌŽůĞƐĂƐƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚƚŽLJŽƵƌƉƌŽďůĞŵŽƌƚŽƉŝĐĂƌĞĂ dŚŝƐ ŚĞůƉƐ LJŽƵ ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJ ĂŶ ƵŶŵĞƚƉƵďůŝĐŶĞĞĚ
Phase II Opportunity
dŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŝŶ ƚŚŝƐ ƉŚĂƐĞ ĂƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ƚŽ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ƵƐĞƌ ĨƌŽŵƚŚƌĞĞ ůĞǀĞůƐŽĨĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐĂŵĂĐƌŽǀŝĞǁĂŵŝĐƌŽǀŝĞǁĂŶĚĂŶĂƌƌĂƟǀĞǀŝĞǁŵĂĐƌŽǀŝĞǁ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƐ ĐŚĂŶŐĞ ĨƌŽŵ Ă ŐƌĂŶĚƐĐĂůĞĂŵŝĐƌŽǀŝĞǁĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƐĐŚĂŶŐĞŽŶĂƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƐĐĂůĞĂŶĚƚŚĞŶĂƌƌĂƟǀĞǀŝĞǁĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƐĐŚĂŶŐĞ ŝŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨĂƐƚŽƌLJLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐ Ă ďĞƩĞƌ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐ ŽĨLJŽƵƌ ƵƐĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ LJŽƵ ŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞƚŚĞ ĐŚĂŶĐĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ LJŽƵƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ƚƌƵůLJŵĞĞƚƐƚŚĞŝƌŶĞĞĚƐdŚƌĞĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĐĂŶ ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ ĮŶĚ
ƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐƋƵŝĐŬůLJͻ ĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĐƐͻ ampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌͻ ampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐ
ϵϯ
PHASE II OPPORTUNITYdŚĞ ƐĞĐŽŶĚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉƐ ĂŶ ĂďŝůŝƚLJƚŽ ƐĞĞ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĞdžŝƐƚƚŽĚĂLJ ĂŶĚ ĞdžƚĞŶĚ ŝŶƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ďLJƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ
ĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƌĐƐǀŝĞǁƐƚŚĞĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĐŚĂŶŐĞƐĂŶĚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůǀŝĞǁƐŽĨĂƚĂƌŐĞƚƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶїƉĂŐĞϵϰ
ampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞƐLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌďĂƐĞĚŽŶǁŚĂƚǁŝůůĂŶĚǁŝůůŶŽƚͿĐŚĂŶŐĞĨƌŽŵƚŽĚĂLJ ƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌїƉĂŐĞϭϬϯ
ampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐƵƐĞƐůŝǀĞƚŚĞĂƚĞƌƚŽŝůůƵƐƚƌĂƚĞĂƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌƵƐĞƌŶĞĞĚĂƐĂƌĞĂůŝƐƟĐƐĐĞŶĞĨƌŽŵƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞїƉĂŐĞϭϭϰ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĚƌŝǀĞthis phaseͻ tŚŝĐŚďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐĂƌĞĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ
ƚŚĂƚǁŝůůƐŚĂƉĞŽƌŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞŶĞǁŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ
ͻ tŚŝĐŚŵĂũŽƌĐŚĂŶŐĞƐĂďŽƵƚƉĞŽƉůĞŽǀĞƌƟŵĞƐƵĐŚĂƐƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŵŽǀĞŵĞŶƚƐĂŶĚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƐŚŝŌƐĐĂŶǁĞŝĚĞŶƟĨLJĂŶĚƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚƚŚĂƚĂīĞĐƚĨƵƚƵƌĞĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ
ͻ tŚĂƚŵŝŐŚƚǁĞĞdžƉĞĐƚĨƌŽŵĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌƐĂŶĚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ
ϵϰ
LULYH[PVUHS(YJZPKLU[PAumlLZHUKtracks population changes in terms of life stages and other generational variables
WhEn to use itͻ dŽĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞĂŶĞǁŵĂƌŬĞƚŽƌ
ĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚŵĂƌŬĞƚĐŚĂŶŐĞͻ dŽĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞŵĂũŽƌĚŝƐƌƵƉƟŽŶƐ
ŝŶĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞƐǁŝƚŚŝŶĂƚĂƌŐĞƚŵĂƌŬĞƚŽƌĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ
ͻ dŽĂŶĂůLJnjĞĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚŽƌLJŽƵŶŐĞƌƵƐĞƌďĂƐĞƌĞůĂƟǀĞƚŽLJŽƵƌĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƵƐĞƌďĂƐĞ
WhY itrsquos helpfulŶĂůLJƐƚƐ ůŝŬĞ ƚŽ ƐĂLJ ƚŚĂƚ ĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƐŝƐ ĚĞƐƟŶLJ ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ƚŚĞLJ ďĞůŝĞǀĞ ĂƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ƐƐŝnjĞĂŶĚŵĂŬĞƵƉĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞĂŶĂƟŽŶ ƐĨƵƚƵƌĞgtŝŬĞŵĂŶLJŐĞŶĞƌĂůŝnjĂƟŽŶƐƚŚĞƌĞŝƐƐŽŵĞƚƌƵƚŚƚŽƚŚŝƐďĞůŝĞĨ WĞƚĞƌƌƵĐŬĞƌ ŽŌĞŶĐĂůůĞĚƚŚĞĨĂƚŚĞƌŽĨ
ŵŽĚĞƌŶŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ ĨĞůƚ ƚŚĂƚ ĐŚĂŶŐĞƐŝŶ ĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƐ ĂƌĞ ƵŶĂŵďŝŐƵŽƵƐ ĂŶĚŚĂǀĞƚŚĞŵŽƐƚƉƌĞĚŝĐƚĂďůĞĐŽŶƐĞƋƵĞŶĐĞƐzŽƵ ĐĂŶ ƵƐĞ ĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƐ ĂƐ Ă ǁĂLJ ƚŽĨŽƌĞĐĂƐƚĐůĞĂƌůLJĨƌŽŵĨĂĐƚƐŬŶŽǁŶƚŽĚĂLJdŚĞ ĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂů ƌĐƐ ĐŽŵďŝŶĞƐ ƚŚĞ
ƐƚĂƟƐƟĐĂůƉŽǁĞƌŽĨĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƐǁŝƚŚĂ
Generational Arcs
ƋƵĂůŝƚĂƟǀĞƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐŽĨŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌ ƚŽ ŐůĞĂŶ ĞǀĞŶ ŐƌĞĂƚĞƌ ŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐŽĨĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌƐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶŝŶĐůƵĚĞƐ ƐŽĐŝĂů ǀĂůƵĞƐ ĐĂƌĞĞƌ ŶĞĞĚƐĂŶĚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ĂƫƚƵĚĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ǁŚĂƚ ŵŽƟǀĂƚĞƐ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚŐƌŽƵƉƐ ŽĨ ƉĞŽƉůĞ DŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ĞĂĐŚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ ŝƐ ĚĞĮŶĞĚ ďLJ Ă ĚŽŵŝŶĂŶƚďĞůŝĞĨƐLJƐƚĞŵǁŚŝĐŚƚŚĞLJĐĂƌƌLJĨŽƌǁĂƌĚŝŶƚŚĞŝƌůŝĨĞĂŶĚǁŽƌŬŚĂďŝƚƐ
What you getĂƐŝĐ ĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐ ĚĞƚĂŝůƐ ǁŝůů ƚĞůů LJŽƵ ĂƚĂƌŐĞƚƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ƐƐŝnjĞĂŶĚƐŽĐŝŽͲĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶ ŽƵƉůĞĚ ǁŝƚŚ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝƐƟĐƐLJŽƵǁŝůůĂůƐŽůĞĂƌŶĂďŽƵƚĂŐƌŽƵƉ ƐďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐǀĂůƵĞƐĂŶĚďĞůŝĞĨƐƚŚĂƚĚĞĮŶĞƚŚĞŵƚŽĚĂLJĂŶĚŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞzŽƵĐĂŶ ƚŚĞŶ ƵƐĞ ƚŚŝƐ ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ ƚŽ ǀĂůŝĚĂƚĞLJŽƵƌ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ĐŽŵƉŽƐŝƟŽŶ ĂŶĚĂůƐŽ ƚŽ ƉƌĞƉĂƌĞ ĨŽƌ ĂŶLJ ĐƌƵĐŝĂů ĐŚĂŶŐĞƐƚŚĂƚǁŝůůŽĐĐƵƌĨŽƌƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞhůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ LJŽƵ ǁŝůů ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJ ĞdžĂĐƚůLJ ǁŚŽLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌƐĂƌĞƚŽĚĂLJĂŶĚǁŚŽƚŚĞLJǁŝůůďĞĐŽŵĞŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ
ϵϱ
Letrsquos look at an exampleKŶĞŽĨƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚ ƐƚŽƉďĂŶŬƐƐĞůůƐŵĂŶLJŽĨ ŝƚƐ ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂů ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐ ƚŽ ŽŶĞ ƚĂƌŐĞƚŵĂƌŬĞƚ ŝŶ ƵƌŽƉĞ ǁŚŝĐŚ ŚĂƐ ƉƌŽǀĞŶ ƚŽďĞ Ă ĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ƐŝnjĂďůĞ ŐƌŽƵƉ ŽĨĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ůĂƐƚ ĚĞĐĂĚĞDĞŵďĞƌƐŽĨ ƚŚŝƐ ƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ĂƌĞ ůĂƌŐĞůLJ ĂŋƵĞŶƚŵĂůĞ ƉƌŽĨĞƐƐŝŽŶĂůƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŵŝĚ ƚŽ ůĂƚĞϰϬƐŝŶĂŐĞŶƚŚĞŶĞdžƚϮϬLJĞĂƌƐƚŚĞďĂŶŬƚĞĂŵƐĂǁ
ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚŝƐ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌďĂƐĞǁŽƵůĚĐŽŶƟŶƵĞĂŐŝŶŐ ĂƐ ƚŚĞLJ ĞŶƚĞƌĞĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĞĂƌůLJ ϲϬƐdŚĞŝƌ ŶĞĞĚƐ ǁŽƵůĚ ƐŚŝŌ ƚŽ ƌĞƟƌĞŵĞŶƚǁŚŝĐŚǁĂƐďĂĐŬĞĚďLJĐŽŵƉĂŶLJƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƐƚƵĚŝĞƐŽǁĞǀĞƌ ŝĨ ƚŚĞ ďĂŶŬ ĐŽŶƟŶƵĞĚ
ƚĂƌŐĞƟŶŐ ƚŚĞ ϰϬͲLJĞĂƌͲŽůĚƐ ƚŚĞŶ ƚŚŝƐƉƌŝŵĂƌLJŐƌŽƵƉǁŽƵůĚĚĞĐƌĞĂƐĞďLJƌŽƵŐŚůLJϭϰϬϬϬϬĐŝƟnjĞŶƐǁŚŝĐŚĞƋƵĂƚĞĚƚŽŶĞĂƌůLJĂƋƵĂƌƚĞƌŽĨƚŚĞŝƌĐƵƌƌĞŶƚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌďĂƐĞtŝƚŚŽƵƚ ŝŵŵŝŐƌĂƟŽŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ƐƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů ůĂďŽƌ ĨŽƌĐĞͶƚŚŽƐĞ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶƚŚĞĂŐĞƐŽĨϭϴĂŶĚϲϮͶǁŽƵůĚƐŚƌŝŶŬďLJϭϴϮ ŵŝůůŝŽŶ Žƌ ƌŽƵŐŚůLJ ϰϬ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ ďLJϮϬϱϬ
ĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůĚĂƚĂƐŚŽǁĞĚƚŚĂƚŵĞŵďĞƌƐŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŽůĚĞƌ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ ǀĂůƵĞĚ ƚƌĂĚŝƟŽŶĂŶĚ ƐƚĂƚĞ ƐĞĐƵƌŝƚLJ Ŷ ĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚ ƵŶĚĞƌŵŽƌĞ ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂů ƉƌĞƐƐƵƌĞ ƚŚĂŶ ƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶƐ ƚŚĞ ƌŝƐŝŶŐ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ ǁĂƐƐĞĞŶ ĂƐ ĂŐŝůĞ ŵƵůƟͲƚĂƐŬĞƌƐ ǁŝƚŚ ůŝƩůĞůŽLJĂůƚLJƚŽĞŵƉůŽLJĞƌƐŽƌƚŚĞŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚ
Source Work Bank data Deutsche Bank Research Johnson Controls ldquoOxygenz Country Report Germanyrdquo 2010
AGE DISTRIBUTION -table comes here
ϳϬϬ
ϲϬϬ
ϱϬϬ
ϰϬϬ
ϯϬϬ
ϮϬϬ
ϭϬϬ
Ϭ
ϮϬϭϬWŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ϮϬϯϬWƌŽũĞĐƚĞĚ
ϮϬϭϬ
WKWh
gtdKE
ŝŶƚŚ
ŽƵƐĂŶĚ
Ɛŵ
ŝĚLJĞĂƌͿ
ϬͲϰ
ϱͲϵ
ϭϬͲϭϰ
ϭϱͲϭϵ
ϮϬͲϮϰ
ϮϱͲϮϵ
ϯϬͲϯϰ
ϯϱͲϯϵ
ϰϬͲϰϰ
ϰϱͲϰϵ
ϱϬͲϱϰ
ϱϱͲϱϵ
ϲϬͲϲϰ
ϲϱͲϲϵ
ϳϬͲϳϰ
ϳϱͲϳϵ
ϴϬͲϴϰ
ϴϱͲϴϵ
ϵϬͲϵϰ
ϵϱͲϵϵ
ϭϬϬн
^dZhdKE
EZdKEzͻŽƌŶϭϵϴϭʹϭϵϵϬͻϭϮйŽĨƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶͻƌĞǁƵƉĂŌĞƌƚŚĞĨĂůůŽĨĞƌůŝŶtĂůůŝŶϭϵϴϵͻ^ĂǁŐůŽďĂůĞdžƉŽƌƚƐƌŝƐĞͻsĂůƵĞƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďŝůŝƚLJ ƐŽĐŝĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŝŶŐͻŶƚĞƌŝŶŐǁŽƌŬĨŽƌĐĞ
zKKDZ^ͻŽƌŶϭϵϰϱʹϭϵϲϱͻϮϵйŽĨƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶͻƌĞǁƵƉƵŶĚĞƌĂƵƐƚĞƌĞĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƐͻWĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚĞĚŝŶƚŚĞĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ƐƌĞƵŶŝĮĐĂƟŽŶͻƌŽǀĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂůŝnjĂƟŽŶͻsĂůƵĞƐĞĐƵƌŝƚLJ ĐƵůƚƵƌĂůƚƌĂĚŝƟŽŶƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀŝƚLJͻWůĂŶŶŝŶŐƌĞƟƌĞŵĞŶƚ
ϵϲ
Instructionsϭ ^ĞůĞĐƚĂĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ƌĞŐŝŽŶŽƌ
ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌŐƌŽƵƉĂƐLJŽƵƌƉŽƉƵůĂͲƟŽŶŽĨƐƚƵĚLJ
Ϯ ampŝŶĚĂĐƌĞĚŝďůĞƐŽƵƌĐĞĨŽƌLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶƌĞĐŽƌĚƐƐƵĐŚĂƐƚŚĞtŽƌůĚĂŶŬh^ĞŶƐƵƐƵƌĞĂƵŽƌƵƌŽƐƚĂƚ^ĞĞƚŚĞĂƉƉĞŶĚŝdžĨŽƌĂůŝƐƚŽĨĚĂƚĂƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ
ϯ WůŽƚƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞůŝǀŝŶŐĂƚĞĂĐŚĂŐĞŽƌĂŐĞƌĂŶŐĞͿĨƌŽŵďŝƌƚŚƚŽϭϬϬLJĞĂƌƐŽůĚWŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŶƵŵďĞƌƐǁŝůůďĞŽŶƚŚĞLJͲĂdžŝƐĂŶĚĂŐĞƌĂŶŐĞƐǁŝůůďĞĂůŽŶŐƚŚĞdžͲĂdžŝƐ
ϰ EŽƚĞƚŚĞĚŽŵŝŶĂŶƚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůŐƌŽƵƉƐůŝǀŝŶŐƵŶĚĞƌƚŚĞƉŽƉƵůĂͲƟŽŶĐƵƌǀĞ
ϱ ĞƐĐƌŝďĞĞĂĐŚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ ƐĚŽŵŝŶĂŶƚďĞůŝĞĨƐǀĂůƵĞƐĂŶĚĂƫƚƵĚĞƐ
ї ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ ĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ gtŽŽŬŝŶŐĂƚLJŽƵƌƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů
ŵĂƌŬĞƚŝƐƚŚĞŽǀĞƌĂůůƚƌĞŶĚŐƌŽǁŝŶŐƐŚƌŝŶŬŝŶŐŽƌƐƉŝŬLJ
ͻ ĨLJŽƵƌĐŚŽƐĞŶŵĂƌŬĞƚŚĂƐĂĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĚŝǀŝĚĞŶĚǁŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞŝŵƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ
ͻ ĨLJŽƵƌĐŚŽƐĞŶŵĂƌŬĞƚŝƐďĞĐŽŵŝŶŐĂŐĞƌŽŶƚŽĐƌĂĐLJ ǁŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞŝŵƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ
ͻ gtŽŽŬŝŶŐĂƚƚŚĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůĐŚĂŶŐĞƐǁŚŝĐŚŽŶĞĨĂĐƚŽƌŽƌĂƐƉĞĐƚǁŽƵůĚLJŽƵƚĂƌŐĞƚŝŶĞĂĐŚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶŝŶϭϬLJĞĂƌƐϮϬLJĞĂƌƐϯϬLJĞĂƌƐ
ϵϳ
Source Work Bank data Deutsche Bank Research Johnson Controls ldquoOxygenz Country Report Germanyrdquo 2010
ϳϬϬ
ϲϬϬ
ϱϬϬ
ϰϬϬ
ϯϬϬ
ϮϬϬ
ϭϬϬ
Ϭ
ϮϬϭϬWŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ϮϬϯϬWƌŽũĞĐƚĞĚ
ϮϬϭϬ
WKWh
gtdKE
ŝŶƚŚ
ŽƵƐĂŶĚ
Ɛŵ
ŝĚLJĞĂƌͿ
ϬͲϰ
ϱͲϵ
ϭϬͲϭϰ
ϭϱͲϭϵ
ϮϬͲϮϰ
ϮϱͲϮϵ
ϯϬͲϯϰ
ϯϱͲϯϵ
ϰϬͲϰϰ
ϰϱͲϰϵ
ϱϬͲϱϰ
ϱϱͲϱϵ
ϲϬͲϲϰ
ϲϱͲϲϵ
ϳϬͲϳϰ
ϳϱͲϳϵ
ϴϬͲϴϰ
ϴϱͲϴϵ
ϵϬͲϵϰ
ϵϱͲϵϵ
ϭϬϬн
^dZhdKE
EZdKEzͻŽƌŶϭϵϴϭʹϭϵϵϬͻϭϮйŽĨƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶͻƌĞǁƵƉĂŌĞƌƚŚĞĨĂůůŽĨĞƌůŝŶtĂůůŝŶϭϵϴϵͻ^ĂǁŐůŽďĂůĞdžƉŽƌƚƐƌŝƐĞͻsĂůƵĞƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďŝůŝƚLJ ƐŽĐŝĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŝŶŐͻŶƚĞƌŝŶŐǁŽƌŬĨŽƌĐĞ
zKKDZ^ͻŽƌŶϭϵϰϱʹϭϵϲϱͻϮϵйŽĨƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶͻƌĞǁƵƉƵŶĚĞƌĂƵƐƚĞƌĞĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƐͻWĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚĞĚŝŶƚŚĞĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ƐƌĞƵŶŝĮĐĂƟŽŶͻƌŽǀĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂůŝnjĂƟŽŶͻsĂůƵĞƐĞĐƵƌŝƚLJ ĐƵůƚƵƌĂůƚƌĂĚŝƟŽŶƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀŝƚLJͻWůĂŶŶŝŶŐƌĞƟƌĞŵĞŶƚ
1 We decide to focus on our
country as the primary
target population
2 We rely on World Bank
reports plus company records
as our primary data sources
3 We decide to present both todayrsquos data and the estimated shift in 20 years (without accounting for any immigration changes)
4 We then write down
some characteristics of
the different generations
ϵϴ
Drawing insights amp implicationsdŚƌŽƵŐŚ ƚŚĞ ĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂů ƌĐƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŚĞƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌĞĚƐĞǀĞƌĂůŝŵƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐĨŽƌďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƐƚŚĞďĂŶŬ ƐĐŽƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ďĂƐĞ ĐŽŶƟŶƵĞĚ ƚŽ ĂŐĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŶĞdžƚ ϱͲϭϬ LJĞĂƌƐ ƚŚĞLJ ǁŽƵůĚ ƐƚĂLJ ůŽLJĂůƐĞŶŝŽƌĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐĂŶĚƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĐŽƵůĚƌŝĚĞƚŚŝƐǁĂǀĞĞĂƐŝůLJŽǁĞǀĞƌ ƚŚĞ ƌŝƐŝŶŐ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ
ǁŽƌŬĞƌƐ ǁŚŽǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ ƚŚĞ ŶĞdžƚ ůŽŐŝĐĂůƐĞƚ ŽĨ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ďĂŶŬ Ɛ ƚĂƌŐĞƚĂŐĞ ƌĂŶŐĞ ǁĞƌĞ Ă ƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚůLJ ƐŵĂůůĞƌƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ tŝƚŚŽƵƚ ĚŽŝŶŐ ĂŶLJƚŚŝŶŐƚŚĞ ďĂŶŬ Ɛ ĐŽƌĞ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ĂŶĚ ƌĞƐƵůƟŶŐƌĞǀĞŶƵĞͿǁŽƵůĚĚƌŽƉƚƌĞŵĞŶĚŽƵƐůLJĂŌĞƌϭϱLJĞĂƌƐďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞƌĞǁĂƐůŝƚĞƌĂůůLJĨĞǁĞƌƉĞŽƉůĞĂůŝǀĞdŚĞƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌĞĚƚŚĂƚĂƐŬŝŶŐƚŚĞƐĞ
ƚLJƉĞƐŽĨĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĞŶĂďůĞĚƚŚĞŵ ƚŽ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ŚŽǁ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐŝŶ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ĂīĞĐƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐ dŚŝƐŵĞƚŚŽĚ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚ ŝŶƚĞŶƐĞ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚƚŚĞƚĞĂŵƉŽŶĚĞƌĞĚ
ͻ ŽǁǁĞůůĚŝĚŽƵƌĐŽŵƉĂŶLJŬŶŽǁƚŚĞŶĞdžƚƐĞƚŽĨĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ
ͻ tŚŝĐŚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐǁŽƵůĚĂīĞĐƚƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ƐǁŝůůŝŶŐŶĞƐƐƚŽƵƐĞƚŚĞďĂŶŬ ƐĮŶĂŶĐŝĂůƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐĂŶĚƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ
ͻ ŽǁĐŽƵůĚƚŚĞLJƐĞůůŵŽƌĞƚŽĞĂĐŚĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽĞŶƐƵƌĞƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƌĞǀĞŶƵĞ
ͻ tŚĞƌĞĐŽƵůĚƚŚĞLJĮŶĚŵŽƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐĂŶĚƐŚŽƵůĚƚŚĞLJůŽŽŬĂďƌŽĂĚ
ϵϵ
Source Work Bank data Deutsche Bank Research Johnson Controls ldquoOxygenz Country Report Germanyrdquo 2010
ϳϬϬ
ϲϬϬ
ϱϬϬ
ϰϬϬ
ϯϬϬ
ϮϬϬ
ϭϬϬ
Ϭ
ϮϬϭϬWŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ϮϬϯϬWƌŽũĞĐƚĞĚ
ϮϬϭϬ
WKWh
gtdKE
ŝŶƚŚ
ŽƵƐĂŶĚ
Ɛŵ
ŝĚLJĞĂƌͿ
ϬͲϰ
ϱͲϵ
ϭϬͲϭϰ
ϭϱͲϭϵ
ϮϬͲϮϰ
ϮϱͲϮϵ
ϯϬͲϯϰ
ϯϱͲϯϵ
ϰϬͲϰϰ
ϰϱͲϰϵ
ϱϬͲϱϰ
ϱϱͲϱϵ
ϲϬͲϲϰ
ϲϱͲϲϵ
ϳϬͲϳϰ
ϳϱͲϳϵ
ϴϬͲϴϰ
ϴϱͲϴϵ
ϵϬͲϵϰ
ϵϱͲϵϵ
ϭϬϬн
^dZhdKE
EZdKEzͻŽƌŶϭϵϴϭʹϭϵϵϬͻϭϮйŽĨƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶͻƌĞǁƵƉĂŌĞƌƚŚĞĨĂůůŽĨĞƌůŝŶtĂůůŝŶϭϵϴϵͻ^ĂǁŐůŽďĂůĞdžƉŽƌƚƐƌŝƐĞͻsĂůƵĞƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďŝůŝƚLJ ƐŽĐŝĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŝŶŐͻŶƚĞƌŝŶŐǁŽƌŬĨŽƌĐĞ
zKKDZ^ͻŽƌŶϭϵϰϱʹϭϵϲϱͻϮϵйŽĨƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶͻƌĞǁƵƉƵŶĚĞƌĂƵƐƚĞƌĞĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƐͻWĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚĞĚŝŶƚŚĞĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ƐƌĞƵŶŝĮĐĂƟŽŶͻƌŽǀĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂůŝnjĂƟŽŶͻsĂůƵĞƐĞĐƵƌŝƚLJ ĐƵůƚƵƌĂůƚƌĂĚŝƟŽŶƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀŝƚLJͻWůĂŶŶŝŶŐƌĞƟƌĞŵĞŶƚ
13
We see our sweet spot in recent
customer growth is tied
closely with our countryrsquos
biggest population
In 20 years this same age group
would drop by nearly a quarter raising some concerns about available markets in the future
Part of our grouprsquos discussion focuses on how our company could better address changing generational needs
100
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ zŽƵĂƌĞŶŽƚůŝŵŝƚĞĚƚŽĂƌĞŐŝŽŶΖƐ
ƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶzŽƵĐĂŶĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶĐŚĂŶŐĞƐŽǀĞƌƟŵĞǁŝƚŚŝŶĂŶŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ŽƌŽƚŚĞƌƵŶŝƚ
ͻ ZĞĨĞƌƚŽƉƵďůŝƐŚĞĚƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶƌĞĐŽƌĚƐƚŽƉůŽƚƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞůŝǀŝŶŐŝŶĂƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌĐŽƵŶƚƌLJŽƌƌĞŐŝŽŶĂƚĞĂĐŚĂŐĞEĞĂƌůLJĂůůĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐĂŶĚŵƵŶŝĐŝƉĂůŝƟĞƐŵĂŝŶƚĂŝŶƚŚĞŝƌŽǁŶƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶƌĞĐŽƌĚƐampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞƚŚĞh^ĞŶƐƵƐƵƌĞĂƵƚƌĂĐŬƐĂůůh^ƐƚĂƚĞƐĂŶĚĐŝƟĞƐƉůƵƐŵĂŝŶƚĂŝŶƐĂŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂůĚĂƚĂďĂƐĞĨŽƌĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐĂŶĚĂƌĞĂƐŽĨƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚǁŝƚŚĂƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŽĨϱϬϬϬŽƌŵŽƌĞ
ͻ ĞƐĐƌŝďĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƉƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞƐĂƐƌŝĐŚůLJĂƐƉŽƐƐŝďůĞďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞLJǁŝůůŝŵƉĂĐƚƚŚĞǀĂůƵĞŽĨLJŽƵƌŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐ
ͻ dLJƉŝĐĂůůLJ ƚŚƌĞĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶƐǁŝůůĚŽŵŝŶĂƚĞŝŶĂĐŽƵŶƚƌLJĂƚĂŶLJŐŝǀĞŶƟŵĞĂƚĂĂďŽƵƚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶƐĐĂŶ
ďĞĨŽƵŶĚĨƌŽŵŵĂƌŬĞƚƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĮƌŵƐĂŶĚŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚĂŐĞŶĐŝĞƐKŌĞŶƚŚĞƐĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐĐĂŶƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĞƐƟŵĂƚĞƐŽĨĨƵƚƵƌĞĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞƐƚŽŽ
ͻ zŽƵĐĂŶĐŽŵďŝŶĞĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚĨƵƚƵƌĞĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĐƵƌǀĞƐĂŶĚƚŚĞƌĞůĂƚĞĚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůĚĂƚĂͿŽŶƚŚĞĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŽƐĞĞŚŽǁƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŐƌŽǁƚŚǁŝůůŝŵƉĂĐƚƟŵŝŶŐ
ZampgtdKEtŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůlabels in your primary market
101
Additional examples
KŶĞ ampŝŶŶŝƐŚ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŶĂƟŽŶƐ ƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶŚĂƐďĞĞŶƌĂƚŚĞƌŇĂƚŝŶƌĞĐĞŶƚĚĞĐĂĚĞƐdŚĞLJĂůƐŽƐĂǁŚŽǁĞĂĐŚampŝŶŶŝƐŚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶŚĂĚĂĐŽŵŵŽŶƐĞƚŽĨĐƵůƚƵƌĂůĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƐĂŶĚǀĂůƵĞƐƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJƐŚŽƵůĚĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŶĞĞĚƐ
ŌĞƌŵĂƉƉŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJΖƐƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶĂ ^ŽƵƚŚĨƌŝĐĂŶ ƚĞĂŵƐĂǁƚŚĂƚƚŚĞŝƌŶĂƟŽŶΖƐĂǀĞƌĂŐĞůŝĨĞĞdžƉĞĐƚĂŶĐLJǁĂƐϰϵLJĞĂƌƐƚŚĂƚŝŵŵŝŐƌĂƟŽŶƉůĂLJĞĚĂŶŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƌŽůĞĨŽƌƚŚĞLJŽƵŶŐĞƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶƐĂŶĚƚŚĞŝŶƚĞƌƉůĂLJŽĨĞƚŚŶŝĐƐƵďŐƌŽƵƉƐǁŝƚŚŝŶŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶƐ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
GENERATIONAL ARCS | method worksheet
AGE DISTRIBUTION -table comes here
WKWh
gtdKE
^dZhdKE
103
-[YLltZLYJYLH[LZHM[YLWYVAumlSLVMa user within a targeted demographic by comparing similar groups over time
WhEn to use itͻ dŽĞdžƉĂŶĚƚŚĞǁŽƌŬŽĨĞdžŝƐƟŶŐ
ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶĂƐͻ dŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƚŚĞƵƐĞƌŶĞĞĚƐŽĨĂ
ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐŵĂƌŬĞƚƐĞŐŵĞŶƚŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞͻ dŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƐŝŵŝůĂƌŝƟĞƐĂŶĚ
ĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐŝŶǀĂůƵĞƐĂƫƚƵĚĞƐĂŶĚďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐďĞƚǁĞĞŶƚǁŽĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶƐ
WhY itrsquos helpfulǀĞƌLJ ƵƐĞƌ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂ ƚĞůůƐ Ă ƐƚŽƌLJ dŚĞĐŽŵŵŽŶƉƌĂĐƟĐĞŝƐƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉƉĞƌƐŽŶĂƐĨŽƌ LJŽƵƌŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƐĞŐŵĞŶƚƐ ĂƐ LJŽƵ ŬŶŽǁƚŚĞŵƚŽĚĂLJƵƚǁŚĂƚŝĨLJŽƵĂƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶŝŶŐĨŽƌĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞǁŚŽŵĂLJŶŽƚďĞƚŚĞƐĂŵĞŐƌŽƵƉŽƌǁŚŽƐĞŶĞĞĚƐŵĂLJĐŚĂŶŐĞ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŽĚĂLJ Ɛ ƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶ Žǁ ĚŽLJŽƵ ƐĞĞ ŝŶƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƚŽ ĐĂƉƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐdŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌŵĞƚŚŽĚ ĞdžƚĞŶĚƐ ƚŚĞ
ĐůĂƐƐŝĐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂƵƐĞĚŝŶĚĞƐŝŐŶŵĂƌŬĞƟŶŐĂŶĚƐĂůĞƐdŚŝƐŵĞƚŚŽĚůĞƚƐLJŽƵĚĞǀĞůŽƉƐŵĂƌƚ ƉƌŽĮůĞƐ ŽĨ LJŽƵƌ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƵƐĞƌƐ LJ
Future User
ƌĞůLJŝŶŐŽŶĐƵƌƌĞŶƚĞǀŝĚĞŶĐĞĂŶĚŚŝƐƚŽƌŝĐĂůĨĂĐƚƐ LJŽƵ ǁŝůů ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ Ă ĐŽŵƉŽƐŝƚĞƉƌŽĮůĞŽĨLJŽƵƌƚĂƌŐĞƚƵƐĞƌƚŚĂƚ ŝƐĚĞĞƉůLJŐƌŽƵŶĚĞĚŝŶƌĞĂůŝƚLJLJƉƵƫŶŐ ƚŚĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂŽĨ LJŽƵƌ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ
ƵƐĞƌŽƌĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŝŶĐŽŶƚĞdžƚLJŽƵǁŝůůŐĂŝŶĂĐůĞĂƌĞƌǀŝĞǁŽĨƚŚĂƚƵƐĞƌ ƐďƵLJŝŶŐŚĂďŝƚƐďĞůŝĞĨƐŵŽƟǀĂƟŽŶƐůŝĨĞƐƚLJůĞĂŶĚŵŽƌĞĂƚĂĨƵƚƵƌĞƉŽŝŶƚKŌĞŶǁŚĂƚĐŚĂŶŐĞƐŝŶŽŶĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶǁŝůůďĞƚĂŬĞŶĨŽƌŐƌĂŶƚĞĚŝŶƚŚĞŶĞdžƚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ
What you getampƵƚƵƌĞ hƐĞƌ ĐĂŶ ďĞ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŽ ĂŶĂůLJnjĞĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌƐ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ďƵLJĞƌƐ Žƌ ĂŶLJŽƚŚĞƌ ƵƐĞƌ ƌŽůĞ ^ŽŵĞ ŐƌŽƵƉƐ ŚĂǀĞĂĚŽƉƚĞĚ ƚŚŝƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƚŽ ĞǀĞŶ ĐŽŵƉĂƌĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŵŽĚĞůƐĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂůŵĂƌŬĞƚƐhůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ LJŽƵ ǁŝůů ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ ŵƵůƟƉůĞ
ƉƌŽĮůĞƐ ŽǀĞƌ ƟŵĞ ĨŽƌ ƚǁŽ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ƐĞŐŵĞŶƚƐ Žƌ ƵƐĞƌƐ ůŽŽŬŝŶŐ ĂƚŚŽǁ ƚŚĞLJ ĐŽŵƉĂƌĞ Ăƚ ƐŝŵŝůĂƌ ƉŽŝŶƚƐ ĂƐǁĞůůĂƐŚŽǁƚŚĞLJŚĂǀĞĐŚĂŶŐĞĚŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ
104
Letrsquos look at an exampleĂƐĞĚŽŶƚŚĞĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐƐŽĨDƵŵďĂŝŶĚŝĂĂƐĞŶŝŽƌƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŚĂƚŚĞǁĂŶƚĞĚ ƚŽ ĨŽĐƵƐ ŽŶ Ă ƐƉĞĐŝĨŝĐ ƵƐĞƌŐƌŽƵƉ ĐĂůůĞĚ ^ƚƌŝǀĞƌƐ ŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚƉĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞƌŝƐŝŶŐŵŝĚĚůĞĐůĂƐƐ^ƚƌŝǀĞƌƐĞĂƌŶ ĂŶ ŝŶĐŽŵĞ ŽĨ ϱϬϬϬϬϬʹϭϬϬϬϬϬϬƌƵƉĞĞƐ ůŝǀĞ ŵĂŝŶůLJ ŝŶ ĐŝƚŝĞƐ ĂŶĚ ĂƌĞŵŽƚŝǀĂƚĞĚƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞdŚŝƐĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĚĂƚĂ ŐĂǀĞ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌ Ă ďĂƐŝƐ ĨƌŽŵǁŚŝĐŚ ƚŽ ƐƚĂƌƚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐ ŚŝƐ ĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌĞ ŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁĞĚ ƐĞǀĞƌĂů ƉĞŽƉůĞ ǁŚŽ
ǁĞƌĞ ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟǀĞ ŽĨ ^ƚƌŝǀĞƌƐ Ğ ĂůƐŽƌĞǀŝĞǁĞĚ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ƌĞƉŽƌƚƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐ ǀĂůƵĞƐ ĂƫƚƵĚĞƐ ĂŶĚ ďĞůŝĞĨƐŽĨƚŚŝƐŐƌŽƵƉĞƐƉĞĐŝĂůůLJůŽŽŬŝŶŐĂƚƐŽĐŝĂůŵŽďŝůŝƚLJĂŶĚƚƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚĂƟŽŶƵƐĂŐĞƌĂǁŝŶŐ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚŝƐ ĚĂƚĂ ŚĞ ĐƌĞĂƚĞĚ
ƚǁŽ ĮĐƟŽŶĂů ĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌƐ ŶĂŵĞĚ EŝŬŚŝůĂŶĚ ^ŝĚĚŚĂƌƚŚĂ ^ŝĚͿ ĂŶĚ ŚĞ ĐŚŽƐĞ ƚŚĞŶĂŵĞƐĨƌŽŵĂůŝƐƚŽĨƉŽƉƵůĂƌŶĂŵĞƐĨƌŽŵĞĂĐŚ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ ĞƚĂŝůĞĚ ƉƌŽĮůĞƐ ǁĞƌĞĐƌĞĂƚĞĚ Ăƚ ĨŽƵƌ ƉŽŝŶƚƐ ŝŶ ƟŵĞEŝŬŚŝů ĂƚĂŐĞ ϮϮ EŝŬŚŝů Ăƚ ĂŐĞ ϯϰ ^ŝĚ Ăƚ ĂŐĞ ϮϮĂŶĚ^ŝĚĂƚĂŐĞϯϰĂĐŚƉƌŽĮůĞĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞĚ
ƚŚĞ ƉĞƌƐŽŶ Ɛ ĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ĐĂƌĞĞƌĂƐƉŝƌĂƟŽŶƐĨĂŵŝůLJďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůďĞůŝĞĨƐĐŽŶƐƵŵƉƟŽŶŚĂďŝƚƐĂŶĚŵŽďŝůŝƚLJŚĂďŝƚƐdŚĞ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌ ƚŚĞŶ ĐŽŵƉĂƌĞĚ ƚŚĞ
ƉƌŽĮůĞƐ ǁŝƚŚ ŽŶĞ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ŝŶ ƚǁŽ ǁĂLJƐŝŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨůŝĨĞĐŚĂŶŐĞƐŽĐĐƵƌƌŝŶŐĨŽƌƚŚĞƐĂŵĞ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂů ŽǀĞƌ ƟŵĞ ĐĂůůĞĚ ůŝĨĞĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵͿ ĂŶĚĂůƐŽďĞƚǁĞĞŶƚŚĞ ƚǁŽ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐĂƚ ƚŚĞƐĂŵĞ ĂŐĞ ŶŽƚĞĚ ĂƐ ƐŝŵŝůĂƌŝƟĞƐ ĂŶĚĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐͿƐ ƚŚĞ ůĂƐƚ ƐƚĞƉ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƵƐĞƌ
ƉƌŽĮůĞĨŽƌ^ŝĚǁĂƐĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚĞĐĂƌƌŝĞĚƐŝŵŝůĂƌŝƟĞƐŽǀĞƌĨƌŽŵEŝŬŚŝůĂŶĚĂůƐŽĨƌŽŵĂ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂů ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ĂƐƐƵŵŝŶŐ ƚŚĂƚďŽƚŚ ƵƐĞƌƐ ƐŚĂƌĞĚ ƚŚĞ ĚŽŵŝŶĂŶƚ ďĞůŝĞĨƐĂŶĚ ďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶƐ dŚĞ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌ ŵĂĚĞ ƚŚĞĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐ ŵŽƌĞ ĞǀŝĚĞŶƚŬŶŽǁŝŶŐ ƚŚĂƚ ĞĂƌůŝĞƌ ďĞůŝĞĨƐ ŚĞůĚ ďLJ ^ŝĚǁŽƵůĚ ĐŽŶƟŶƵĞ ƚŽ ƐŚĂƉĞ ŚŝƐ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐŝŶƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞKǀĞƌĂůůƚŚĞƚĂƌŐĞƚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ŝŶ ϮϬϮϬ ǁĂƐ Ă ǀĞƌLJ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƚLJƉĞŽĨƉĞƌƐŽŶƚŚĂŶƚŚĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŬŶŽǁŶƚŽĚĂLJ
105Source Neeraj Sonalkar Stanford University ME410 2008
^ŝŵŝůĂƌŝƟĞƐĂƚĂŐĞϮϮͻ hƐĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƚƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚͻ ƐƉŝƌĞƚŽĂŶDĚĞŐƌĞĞͻ gtŝǀĞǁŝƚŚƉĂƌĞŶƚƐͻ tĂƚĐŚŽůůLJǁŽŽĚĂŶĚĐƌŝĐŬĞƚͻ ŽƚŚǁĞĂƌĨŽƌĞŝŐŶďƌĂŶĚĂƉƉĂƌĞů
ŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐĂƚĂŐĞϮϮͻ ^ŝĚŚĂƐďƌŽĂĚďĂŶĚĂĐĐĞƐƐƚŽ
ŝŶƚĞƌŶĞƚͻ ^ŝĚŝƐŝŶƚŽƐŽĐŝĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŝŶŐĂŶ
ƵŶŬŶŽǁŶƉŚĞŶŽŵĞŶŽŶƚŽEŝŬŚŝůͻ ^ŝĚƵƐĞƐĂŵŽďŝůĞƉŚŽŶĞEŝŬŚŝůƵƐĞƐ
ůĂŶĚůŝŶĞͻ ^ŝĚŝƐĂůƌĞĂĚLJǁŽƌŬŝŶŐĂƚŚŝƐĨĂƚŚĞƌƐ
ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ EŝŬŚŝůŝƐƐƟůůŶŽƚŝŶƚŚĞũŽďŵĂƌŬĞƚ
EŝŬŚŝůĂŐĞϮϮ EŝŬŚŝůĂŐĞϯϰ
^ŝĚĚŚĂƌƚĂ^ŝĚͿĂŐĞϮϮ ^ŝĚĚŚĂƌƚĂ^ŝĚͿĂŐĞϯϰ
gtŝĨĞŚĂŶŐĞƐĨŽƌEŝŬŚŝůͻ DĂƌƌŝĞĚĂƚĂŐĞϮϴͻ ŽƚĂŶDĚĞŐƌĞĞͻ dǁŽĚĂƵŐŚƚĞƌƐďŽƌŶͻ ^ƉĞŶƚϮLJĞĂƌƐŝŶgtŽŶĚŽŶ
ĮƌƐƚƟŵĞŽƵƚƐŝĚĞŶĚŝĂͿͻ WƵƌĐŚĂƐĞĚĂŶĂƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚŝŶ
DƵŵďĂŝͻ WƵƌĐŚĂƐĞĚŵŽďŝůĞƉŚŽŶĞ
ƵƐĞƐůĂĐŬďĞƌƌLJWĞĂƌůͿͻ WƵƌĐŚĂƐĞĚĐŽŵƉƵƚĞƌǁŝƚŚ
ŝŶƚĞƌŶĞƚĂĐĐĞƐƐͻ WƵƌĐŚĂƐĞĚĂĐĂƌDĂƌƵƟͿͻ WƵƌĐŚĂƐĞĚĂĐůƵď
ŵĞŵďĞƌƐŚŝƉ1996 2008 2020
106
Instructionsϭ ƌĂǁĂďŽdžƚŚĂƚƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐLJŽƵƌ
ƉƌŝŵĂƌLJĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƚŽĚĂLJEĂŵĞLJŽƵƌĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĂŶĚŶŽƚĞŚŝƐŚĞƌĂŐĞƚŽĚĂLJzŽƵŵĂLJĮŶĚŝƚŚĞůƉĨƵůƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂĚĞƚĂŝůĞĚƉƌŽĮůĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂͿƵƐŝŶŐĚĂƚĂĨƌŽŵŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƐƚƵĚŝĞƐƐƵƌǀĞLJƐŵĂƌŬĞƚƌĞƉŽƌƚƐĞƚĐ
Ϯ ƌĂǁĂƐĞĐŽŶĚďŽdžƚŽƐŚŽǁƚŚŝƐƉĞƌƐŽŶďĂĐŬŝŶƟŵĞĂŶĚƵƐĞĂŶĂƌƌŽǁƚŽĐŽŶŶĞĐƚƚŚĞƚǁŽďŽdžĞƐEŽƚĞƚŚĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ƐƐƚĂƌƟŶŐĂŐĞŽǁĨĂƌLJŽƵůŽŽŬďĂĐŬǁŝůůĚĞƉĞŶĚŽŶLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐZΘůŝĨĞĐLJĐůĞůĂƵŶĐŚƉůĂŶƐĂŶĚƌĞůĂƚĞĚƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJͶŝĨLJŽƵĚŽŶƚŬŶŽǁĂŐŽŽĚƟŵĞĨƌĂŵĞƵƐĞϭϬLJĞĂƌƐͿŝƐĐƵƐƐƚŚŝƐƉĞƌƐŽŶ ƐǀŝĞǁƐďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐĂŶĚĐŚŽŝĐĞƐŝŶƚŚĞƉĂƐƚĂŶĚŚŽǁƚŚĞLJŚĂǀĞĐŚĂŶŐĞĚŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ
ϯ hŶĚĞƌƚŚĞĮƌƐƚďŽdžĚƌĂǁĂƚŚŝƌĚďŽdžƚŚĂƚƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞ
ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĂƐŚĞƐŚĞĞdžŝƐƚƐƚŽĚĂLJEĂŵĞƚŚŝƐĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌ ĂŶĚŚŝƐŚĞƌĂŐĞǁŝůůďĞƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƐƚĂƌƟŶŐĂŐĞĂƐLJŽƵƌĮƌƐƚĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ zŽƵŵĂLJĮŶĚŝƚŚĞůƉĨƵůƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂĚĞƚĂŝůĞĚƉƌŽĮůĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂͿƵƐŝŶŐĚĂƚĂĨƌŽŵŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůƐƚƵĚŝĞƐƐƵƌǀĞLJƐŵĂƌŬĞƚƌĞƉŽƌƚƐĞƚĐ
ϰ ƌĂǁĂŶĂƌƌŽǁĨŽƌǁĂƌĚĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƚŚŝƌĚďŽdžƚŚĂƚĐŽŶŶĞĐƚƐƚŽĂĨŽƵƌƚŚďŽdžĨŽƌLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌ dŚŝƐďŽdžƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐƚŚĞƚĂƌŐĞƚĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌ ŝƐŚĞƌĂŐĞǁŝůůďĞƚŚĞƐĂŵĞĂƐƚŽĚĂLJ ƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ
ϱ ŽŵƉĂƌĞƚŚĞƚǁŽƉĞŽƉůĞĂƚƚŚĞŝƌƐƚĂƌƟŶŐĂŐĞƐĂŶĚĂůƐŽĂƚƚŚĞŝƌƚĂƌŐĞƚĂŐĞƐzŽƵŵĂLJĮŶĚŝƚŚĞůƉĨƵůƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂƉƌŽĮůĞŽĨƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌ ǁŚŝĐŚǁŝůůŝŶĐůƵĚĞĂŵŝdžŽĨĚŽŵŝŶĂŶƚŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůǀĂůƵĞƐƐŝŵŝůĂƌŝƟĞƐǁŝƚŚƚŽĚĂLJ ƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ĂŶĚŶĞǁĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐĞdžƚĞŶĚŝŶŐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞLJŽƵŶŐĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌƚŽĚĂLJ
ї ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ ĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
107
1 We describe our primary
customer today and note his age
2 We discuss what his
lifestyle choices and values
were 12 years ago and how
they have changed over time
(we pick this timeframe
based on two RampD cycles for
our company)
3 Drawing from our earlier
generational research we
describe our young future
customer as he exists today
5 We compare and contrast the two people at their starting ages and also at their target ages looking to
understand what has changed (and what has not changed) over time
4 The target age of our future user is the same as as todayrsquos customer
108
Drawing insights amp implicationsdŚĞ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌ ŝƐ ƐŝŵŝůĂƌ ĂŶĚ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ƚŽ ƚŽĚĂLJ ƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ŝŶ ƐŽŵĞ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ǁĂLJƐůƚŚŽƵŐŚďŽƚŚEŝŬŚŝůĂŶĚ^ŝĚĂƌĞϯϰͲLJĞĂƌͲŽůĚ ŵŝĚĚůĞ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ǁŚŽ ƐŚŽƉ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶďƌĂŶĚƐ ĂŶĚǁĂƚĐŚ ĐƌŝĐŬĞƚ ƚŚĞLJ ŐƌĞǁ ƵƉƵŶĚĞƌ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ĂŶĚ ƉŽůŝƟĐĂůĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚƐŝŶŶĚŝĂampŽƌ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ^ŝĚ ĚŽĞƐŶƚ ĐĂƌĞ ŵƵĐŚ
ĂďŽƵƚ ƉŽůŝƟĐƐ ĂŶĚ ďĞůŝĞǀĞƐ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƉƌŝŶĐŝƉůĞƐ ƐŚŽƵůĚ ďĞ ƵƐĞĚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚ hŶůŝŬĞ EŝŬŚŝů ŚĞ ƐƉĞŶĚƐŵŽƌĞ ƟŵĞ ĂďƌŽĂĚ ĂŶĚ ůŝŬĞƐ ĐŽŵďŝŶŝŶŐďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĂŶĚĨĂŵŝůLJĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐŽŶƚƌŝƉƐĞĂůƐŽĞdžƉĞĐƚƐƵďŝƋƵŝƚŽƵƐŝŶƚĞƌŶĞƚĂĐĐĞƐƐŝŶĂůůĨƵƚƵƌĞƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐĂŶĚƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐdŚĞƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌĂůƐŽůĞĂƌŶĞĚƚŚĂƚƐŽŵĞ
ĂƐƉĞĐƚƐŽĨŚƵŵĂŶďĞůŝĞĨĂŶĚďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌĚŽŶŽƚĐŚĂŶŐĞƚŚĂƚƋƵŝĐŬůLJampŽƌŝŶƐƚĂŶĐĞďŽƚŚĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌƐ ďĞůŝĞǀĞ ƐƚƌŽŶŐůLJ ŝŶ ŵĂƌƌŝĂŐĞĂŶĚĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶŽƚŚĞĂƚǁĞůů ůŝǀĞ ŝŶĐŝƚLJĂƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚƐĂŶĚĐŽŵŵƵƚĞƚŽǁŽƌŬ
ůƐŽ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚůLJ ^ŝĚ ĚŽĞƐ ŶŽƚ ŚĂǀĞƵŶƌĞĂůŝƐƟĐĞdžƉĞĐƚĂƟŽŶƐĂďŽƵƚŚŝƐ ĨƵƚƵƌĞŝŶ ϭϮ LJĞĂƌƐ Ğ ĚŽĞƐ ŶŽƚ ƉůĂŶ ŽŶ ůƵŶĂƌĐŽŶĚŽƐŇLJŝŶŐĐĂƌƐŽƌďƌĂŝŶ ŝŵƉůĂŶƚƐĨŽƌĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶďĂƐĞĚŽŶǁŚĂƚŚĞŐƌĞǁƵƉ ǁŝƚŚ ĂŶĚ ŝƐ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐŝŶŐ ŝŶ ϮϬϬϴŶƐƚĞĂĚŽĨǁŝůĚƐĐŝĞŶĐĞĮĐƟŽŶƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌŵĞƚŚŽĚƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐĂƉůĂƵƐŝďůĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂǁŝƚŚƌĞĂůͲůŝĨĞŶĞĞĚƐƐĞƚŝŶĂĨƵƚƵƌĞĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚĞƌĞĐĂŶLJŽƵĮŶĚĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂů
ĚĂƚĂĂďŽƵƚŚŽǁƉĞŽƉůĞůŝǀĞƚŽĚĂLJŽǁƚŚĞLJůŝǀĞĚŝŶƚŚĞƉĂƐƚ
ͻ ŽLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƚŽŐƌŽǁƚŚĞƐĂŵĞŵĂƌŬĞƚŽƌƉƵƌƐƵĞĂŶĞǁŵĂƌŬĞƚĨŽƌLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌ
ͻ ŽǁƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟǀĞŝƐLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌŽĨŚŝƐŽƌŚĞƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ
ͻ ŽǁŵĂŶLJĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌƐƐŚŽƵůĚLJŽƵĚĞǀĞůŽƉƚŽďĞƩĞƌĐĂƉƚƵƌĞĂĐŽŵŝŶŐĐŚĂŶŐĞŝŶƚŚĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ ƐŵĂŬĞƵƉ
ϭϬϵ
Although both users enjoy cricket and
shop foreign brands they grew up under
different conditions in Indiamdashwhich
affects their expectations about the
economy government and industry
By drawing from real people we build a realistic persona for a future user that can drive our RampD planning
Both users value family and
education in their lives
110
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ dŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚŝƐƋƵŝƚĞƐŝŵƉůĞĂƚ
ŝƚƐĐŽƌĞƐŝŵƉůLJĐŽŵƉĂƌŝŶŐĨŽƵƌĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƉƌŽĮůĞƐŝŶƟŵĞĨŽƌƚǁŽƉĞŽƉůĞ
ͻ ^ƚĂƌƚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƉƌŽĮůĞŽĨƚŽĚĂLJ ƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽƌĞĐŽŶĮƌŵĂŶLJĞdžŝƐƟŶŐďŝĂƐĞƐĂŶĚĨĂĐƚƐďĞĨŽƌĞĞdžƚĞŶĚŝŶŐŝŶƚŽƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƉƌŽĮůĞ
ͻ ĂƚŚĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞĚĂƚĂĨƌŽŵĂůůƚŚĞƵƐƵĂůŵĂƌŬĞƚƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƐŽƵƌĐĞƐŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐŽŶůŝŶĞƐƵƌǀĞLJƐĨŽĐƵƐŐƌŽƵƉƐĂŶĚĞƚŚŶŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐŽďƐĞƌǀĂƟŽŶ
ͻ ^ĞůĞĐƚďŽƚŚƚŚĞŶĂŵĞƐĂŶĚĨĂĐĞƐĐĂƌĞĨƵůůLJĨŽƌLJŽƵƌĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞƐďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞLJǁŝůůĐŽŶǀĞLJŵĂŶLJŝŵƉůŝĐŝƚŵĞƐƐĂŐĞƐĂďŽƵƚŝĚĞŶƟƚLJƚŽLJŽƵƌĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞKŶĞƚƌŝĐŬŝƐƚŽƐĞůĞĐƚĂƉŽƉƵůĂƌďĂďLJŶĂŵĞĨƌŽŵƚŚĂƚƟŵĞ
ͻ hƐĞƌĞĂůĞǀŝĚĞŶĐĞƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉLJŽƵƌĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞƐďĞĐĂƵƐĞƐƚĞƌĞŽƚLJƉŝĐĂůĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐǁŝůůǁĞĂŬĞŶƚŚĞƵƐĞĨƵůŶĞƐƐŽĨƚŚŝƐŵĞƚŚŽĚĨŽƌLJŽƵƌƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ
ͻ ĂĐŚĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞŵĂLJŝŶĐůƵĚĞďĂƐŝĐĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĚĂƚĂĨĂŵŝůLJďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚǀĂůƵĞƐĂŶĚďĞůŝĞĨƐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůĂŶĚĐĂƌĞĞƌŐŽĂůƐůŝĨĞƐƚLJůĞĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐƉƵƌĐŚĂƐĞƉƌŽĚƵĐƚŚĂďŝƚƐŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůǀĂůƵĞƐĂŶĚƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŵĞĚŝĂƵƐĂŐĞ
ͻ ƌĂŌƚŚĞĮŶĂůďůĞŶĚĞĚƉƌŽĮůĞĨŽƌƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌĂƐLJŽƵƌůĂƐƚƐƚĞƉďLJĚƌĂǁŝŶŐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƚŚƌĞĞƵƐĞƌƉƌŽĮůĞƐĂůƌĞĂĚLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ
ͻ ŶĐůƵĚĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůĚĞƚĂŝůƐƚŽĂĚĚůŝĨĞƚŽLJŽƵƌƉĞƌƐŽŶĂƐƐƵĐŚĂƐƚŽƉŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞƐŽŶƉƵƌĐŚĂƐŝŶŐĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐĨĂǀŽƌŝƚĞdsƐŚŽǁƐŬƐƌĞĂĚŝŶŐŶŽǁĐĂƌŵŽĚĞůĚƌŝǀĞŶďŝŐŐĞƐƚĨĞĂƌƐĞƚĐ
ͻ ŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂĚĂƉƟŶŐƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŽĐŽŵƉĂƌĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉƚŽĂŶŽƚŚĞƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƚŽƐĞĞŚŽǁLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉŵŝŐŚƚŶĞĞĚƚŽŵĂƚƵƌĞŽƌĞǀŽůǀĞ
ZampgtdKEtŚŝĐŚƵƐĞƌĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐƐŚŽƵůĚƐƚĂLJĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ
111
Additional examples
ƵƌŽƉĞĂŶ ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂů ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ ŐƌŽƵƉ ǁŝƐŚĞĚ ƚŽƐĞůů ŝƚƐ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ ƚŽ Ă ŶĞǁŵĂƌŬĞƚ ŶĂŵĞůLJĂŋƵĞŶƚĨĞŵĂůĞƉƌŽĨĞƐƐŝŽŶĂůƐ
ŶŵĞƌŝĐĂŶĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶĂůƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƌƵƐĞĚƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ĂƐ Ă ƋƵŝĐŬ ŐĂƉ ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ƚŽ ƐĞĞ ǁŚĂƚƚŚĞLJĚŝĚŶŽƚŬŶŽǁĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
FUTURE USER | method worksheet
^ŝŵŝůĂƌŝƟĞƐΘĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐŝŶŽƵƌƚǁŽƵƐĞƌƐĂƚƚŚĞŝƌƐƚĂƌƟŶŐĂŐĞ
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
W^dampZͿ
W^dampZͿ
W^dampZͿ
zZͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺ
W^dampZͿ
h^ZEDͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺ
^dZdͺͺͺͺͺͺͺ
^ŝŵŝůĂƌŝƟĞƐΘĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞƐŝŶŽƵƌƚǁŽƵƐĞƌƐĂƚƚŚĞŝƌƚĂƌŐĞƚĂŐĞ
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
dKzΖ^ͺͺͺͺͺͺͺ
dZdͺͺͺͺͺͺͺ
dZdzZͺͺͺͺͺͺͺ
h^ZEDͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺ
^dZdͺͺͺͺͺͺͺ
113
OLYL PZHUVSKZH`PUNdegcedilHZ [HSRH[P]Las a Finnrdquo The classic Finnish stereotype is someone who is [HJP[YUdeg HUK ZVSLTUdeg HUK [OLnational characteristic is of polite YLZLY]LLULYHSS`degZWLHRPUN L[HRLbusiness seriously and expect to ILdegQKNLKI`VYL_WLY[PZLdegUV[[OLway we present ourselvesLY[HPU PUUV]H[PVUdeg TL[OVKZ
may challenge that comfort zone In particular the FutureTelling TL[OVKdegYLXPYLZdegLSLTLU[ZVM[OLH[LYand group role-playing Like most -PUUZ0WYLMLYdeg[V[LSST`[LHTraquoZPKLHZJHSTS UV[HJ[[OLTdegV[Y[O PZ ^L TPNO[deg TPZZ V[ VU
many insights that acting out in MYVU[VMV[OLYZTPNO[IYPUNZdeg9VSLWSH`PUN PZ UV[deg QZ[ H [LJOUPXL [Vcommunicate an idea to another WLYZVUdeg P[ PZS[PTH[LS`HTL[OVKVM
ZLSMYLAringLJ[PVUgtOPSLHJ[PUNdegV[^LOH]L [Vdeg JVUZPKLY [OL YVSL ^L HYLplaying We have to identify with [OH[ YVSL HUK PTHNPULdeg VYZLS]LZ PU[OH[degJOHYHJ[LYraquoZZP[H[PVU0UHKKP[PVUH SP]L HJ[ WYV]PKLZ TVYLdeg Z[PTSP [Vreact to than a narrative could so [OLMLLKIHJRdeg^LYLJLP]LMYVTdegV[OLYZbecomes much richer and more ZWLJPAumlJ-VY[UH[LS deg WLYMVYTPUN PZ H ZRPSS
that can be learned While I probably JHUraquo[ YLTV]L [OLdeg ULY]VZULZZ[OH[ UH[YHSS`deg JVTLZ ^P[O [Y`PUNsomething new I can make it TVYL HJJLW[HISLdeg I` WYHJ[PJLThe FutureTelling method can ILdeg LUHJ[LK PU THU` ZP[H[PVUZ PUVYdeg^VYR[V[LSSJVSSLHNLZHIV[VYnew ideasmdashthat may help all of us [Vdeg JOHSSLUNL VY V^U Z[LYLV[`WLZabout what is right and what is true
VIEWPOINT | Acting out for the Finns
114
Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future This is active storytelling at its best
When to use itͻ dŽĞdžĐŝƚĞLJŽƵƌĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞĂďŽƵƚ
ĂĨƵƚƵƌĞƉŽƐƐŝďŝůŝƚLJƚŚĂƚŵĂLJďĞĚŝĸĐƵůƚƚŽĞdžƉƌĞƐƐŝŶǁŽƌĚƐ
ͻ dŽĐŚĂŶŐĞƚŚĞĞŶĞƌŐLJĚLJŶĂŵŝĐŝŶĂƐƚĂůĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĐŽŶǀĞƌƐĂƟŽŶ
ͻ dŽĐŽŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚǁƌŝƩĞŶĞdžƉůĂŶĂƟŽŶƐŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂ
Why itrsquos helpfulWƐLJĐŚŽůŽŐLJ ƐƚƵĚŝĞƐ ĂŶĚ ĞǀĞƌLJĚĂLJĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ ǀĞƌŝĨLJ ƚŚĞ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶĐĞ ƚŽƐŚŽǁŶŽƚƚĞůůWĞŽƉůĞůŝŬĞƚŽƐĞĞŶŽƚũƵƐƚŚĞĂƌ ƌĞƐƵůƚƐ tŚĞŶ ĂŶ ŝĚĞĂ ŝƐ ǀŝƐƵĂůůLJƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚ ŝƚ ĐŽŶǀĞLJƐ Ă ƌŝĐŚĞƌ ƐĞƚ ŽĨŵĞĂŶŝŶŐƐ ĂŶĚ ĞŶŐĂŐĞƐ ƚŚĞ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞŵŽƌĞĨƵůůLJƚŚĂŶĂŶ ŝĚĞĂĚŽĐƵŵĞŶƚĞĚ ŝŶƉůĂŝŶ ƚĞdžƚ tŚĞŶ ƚŚĞ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĂƌĞ ĂďŽƵƚƚŚŝŶŐƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĚŽ ŶŽƚ LJĞƚ ĞdžŝƐƚ ƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ĂĨƵƚƵƌĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƐŽůƵƟŽŶŝƚĐĂŶŽŌĞŶďĞĞĂƐŝĞƌ ƚŽĂĐƚŽƵƚ ƚŚĞƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐ ƚŚĂŶƚŽ ĞdžƉůĂŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉůĞdžŝƟĞƐ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŵĞƌĞǁŽƌĚƐ
Futuretelling
ampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐŝƐĂǀĞƌƐŝŽŶŽĨƐƚŽƌLJƚĞůůŝŶŐǁŚŝĐŚ ƐŚŽǁƐ LJŽƵƌ ƵƐĞƌƐͿ ŝŶ Ă ĨƵƚƵƌĞĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ ^ŽŵĞ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐ ƚŽ ďĞ ƌŽůĞͲƉůĂLJŝŶŐ Žƌ ůŝǀĞƚŚĞĂƚĞƌ ŽƌĞǀĞŶĂdsƐŝƚĐŽŵƐĐĞŶĞŝŶĂůůĐĂƐĞƐ ƚŚĞƉŽǁĞƌ ŝƐ ŝŶƉƌŽǀŝĚŝŶŐĂŶŽƚŚĞƌĨŽƌŵĂƚ ƚŽ ŝŶĨŽƌŵ ĂŶĚ ƉĞƌƐƵĂĚĞ LJŽƵƌĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞĂďŽƵƚĂŶĞǁŝĚĞĂdŚĞ ǀĂůƵĞ ŝƐ ƚǁŽĨŽůĚ ƚŚĞ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ
ǁŝƚŶĞƐƐĞƐ Ă ůŝǀĞ ĚĞŵŽŶƐƚƌĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ Ă ƵƐĞĐĂƐĞĂŶĚƚŚĞƉĞƌĨŽƌŵŝŶŐƚĞĂŵĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞƐĂŶ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞ ŝŶ ƐĞŶƐĞͲŵĂŬŝŶŐdŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŵƵƐƚ ƚŚŝŶŬ ŽĨ Ă ƌĞĂůͲǁŽƌůĚƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶ ƚŽ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚ ƚŚĞ ŝĚĞĂ ĂŶĚ Ăůů ŝƚƐĐŽŵƉŽŶĞŶƚƐ dŚŝƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐ ƚŚĞĮƌƐƚŽĐĐĂƐŝŽŶƚŽƚŚŝŶŬŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƚŚĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶĂŶĚƉŽƐŝƟŽŶŝƚŝŶĂďŝŐŐĞƌĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ
What you getzŽƵŐĂŝŶĂƐŚŽƌƚĚƌĂŵĂƟĐƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞŽƌƚŚĞĂƚƌŝĐĂů ƐŬĞƚĐŚ ĂďŽƵƚ LJŽƵƌƵƐĞƌƐͿ ŝŶ ĂĨƵƚƵƌĞĐŽŶƚĞdžƚĐƚƐĐĂŶďĞƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĞĚƚŽƐƵƉƉŽƌƚŐƌŽƵƉĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶŽƌĐĂŶďĞƉƌĞͲƌĞĐŽƌĚĞĚĂƐƉĂƌƚŽĨ ĂďƌŽĂĚĞƌĞīŽƌƚƚŽďƵŝůĚŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞĂŶĚĂůŝŐŶŵĞŶƚ
115
Source William Cockayne 2008
Letrsquos look at an example ƚĞĂŵ ŽĨ EŽƌĚŝĐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌƐ ĨĞůƚ ƚŚĂƚŐƌŽǁŝŶŐ ĞŶĞƌŐLJ ĚĞŵĂŶĚ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŵŝŶŐĂĚǀĂŶĐĞƐ ŝŶ ĞŶĞƌŐLJ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚ Ă ĐŽŵƉĞůůŝŶŐ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐĞĚ ŝƐƐƵĞƐŝŶ ƐĐĂůĞ ĂĐĐĞƐƐŝďŝůŝƚLJ ĂŶĚ ĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƟŽŶĂŵŽŶŐ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƚŽƉŝĐƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĞŶĞƌŐLJŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJKŶĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĂƐƐƵŵƉƟŽŶƐ ǁĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ
ƚŚĞ ŶĂƟŽŶĂů ŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJ ǁŽƵůĚ ƐĞƌǀĞ ĂƐĂ ůĞĂĚ ĂĚŽƉƚĞƌ dŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƵƐĞƌ ǁĂƐ ĂƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝnjĞĚ ŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJ ŵĞĚŝĐĂů ĚŽĐƚŽƌ ŝŶŶŽƌƚŚĞƌŶƵƌŽƉĞǁŚŽǀĂůƵĞĚƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďůĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐtŚĞŶ ƚĞĂŵ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ƉŝĐƚƵƌĞĚ ƚŚŝƐ
ĚŽĐƚŽƌ ǁŽƌŬŝŶŐ ŽŶ ĐƌŝƟĐĂů ƐƵƌŐĞƌŝĞƐ ŽŶƚŚĞďĂƩůĞĮĞůĚĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƌĞŵŽƚĞůŽĐĂƟŽŶƐϭϱLJĞĂƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĞLJďĞůŝĞǀĞĚŚĞǁŽƵůĚ ďƌŝŶŐ Ă ƐŵĂůů ƉŽǁĞƌ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƚŽƌƵƐŝŶŐĂůŐĂĞƚŽŚĞůƉƉƌŽǀŝĚĞůŽĐĂůƉŽǁĞƌ Ŷ ŽƌĚĞƌ ƚŽ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚ ƚŚŝƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞdž
ƉŝĐƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ Ă ƐŚŽƌƚ
ĐŽŵĞĚŝĐ ƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞ Žƌ ƐŬŝƚ ƚŽ ƐŚŽǁƚŚĞĚŽĐƚŽƌƉĞƌĨŽƌŵŝŶŐƚŚĞƐƵƌŐĞƌLJdĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ƉůĂLJĞĚ ƚŚĞ ĚŽĐƚŽƌ ƉĂƟĞŶƚŵĞĚŝĐĂů ĂƐƐŝƐƚĂŶƚ ĂŶĚ ĨĞůůŽǁ ƐŽůĚŝĞƌ dŚĞLJ ƵƐĞĚ ƐŽŵĞ ƐŝŵƉůĞ ƚŚĞĂƚĞƌ ƉƌŽƉƐƐƵĐŚĂƐĂŶŵĞƌŝĐĂŶĨŽŽƚďĂůůĂƐĂƚƵŵŽƌĂŶĚ Ă ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ĞǀĞŶƚ ƐŝŐŶ ĂƐ Ă ƐĐĂůƉĞůLJ ĂĚĚŝŶŐ ƐŽŵĞ ůŝŐŚƚ ŚƵŵŽƌ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŝƌƌŽůĞͲƉůĂLJŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĞŶƚĞƌƚĂŝŶĞĚ ƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞĂŶĚŵĂĚĞƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶĨĞĞůŵŽƌĞŵĞŵŽƌĂďůĞ
116
Instructionsϭ ĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞƚŚĞƉƌŝŵĂƌLJŶĞĞĚŽƌ
ƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶƚŚĂƚLJŽƵƚŚŝŶŬŚĞůƉƐƐŚŽǁLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌďĞƐƚŝŶĂƌĞĂůŝƐƟĐƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶ
Ϯ ƌĞĂƚĞĂƐƚŽƌLJĂďŽƵƚƚŚŝƐƵƐĞƌ ƐƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶtŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞĐŝƌĐƵŵƐƚĂŶĐĞƐĂŶĚǁŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚƚƌLJŝŶŐƚŽĂĐĐŽŵƉůŝƐŚ
ϯ ĞǀĞůŽƉĂƐŝŵƉůĞƐĐƌŝƉƚƚŚĂƚŽƵƚůŝŶĞƐĞĂĐŚƉĞƌƐŽŶ ƐĚŝĂůŽŐƵĞĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶƐŝŶƚŚŝƐƐƚŽƌLJ
ϰ ĚĞŶƟĨLJĂĐƟŶŐƌŽůĞƐĨŽƌĂůůƚŚĞƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌƐ
ϱ ampŝŶĚĂŶLJƐƵƉƉŽƌƟŶŐƉƌŽƉƐƚŚĂƚŵĂLJŚĞůƉĐŽŶǀĞLJƚŚĞƐƚŽƌLJ
ϲ WƌĞƐĞŶƚLJŽƵƌƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞƚŽĂůŝǀĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ
ϳ gtŝƐƚĞŶƚŽƚŚĞƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐĂŶĚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞǁŚŝĐŚŵĂLJƐŚŽǁǁĞůůͲŽƌƵŶĚĞƌͲƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĞĚĂƌĞĂƐŝŶLJŽƵƌƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ
ї ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ ĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ ŝĚLJŽƵƌĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞƌĞĂĐƚŝŶƚŚĞ
ǁĂLJLJŽƵĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚͻ ŝĚLJŽƵƌĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞĂƐŬƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ
ƚŚĂƚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚͻ tŚŝĐŚĂƐƉĞĐƚƐŽĨLJŽƵƌƐƚŽƌLJĚŝĚ
ƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞĨŽĐƵƐŽŶtŚLJͻ ĨLJŽƵŚĂĚĂĐŚĂŶĐĞƚŽƉĞƌĨŽƌŵ
ƚŚĞƐŬŝƚĂŐĂŝŶǁŚĂƚǁŽƵůĚLJŽƵĐŚĂŶŐĞ
117
1 We decide to show the
doctor performing a critical
surgery on the battlefield
3-4 Everyone including the patient had some lines to say that conveyed the importance of using a portable energy generator2 Our story
had four roles
a doctor medical
assistant patient
and fellow soldier
5-6 We used simple props such as giant paper scalpel to help add some humor to our storytelling
118
Drawing insights amp implicationsdŚƌŽƵŐŚ ƚŚŝƐ ƐŝŵƉůĞ ĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞ ƚŚĞƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ƚĞĂŵ ĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌĞĚ ƐĞǀĞƌĂů ŶĞǁŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJ ŚĂĚ ŶŽƚ ĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚampŝƌƐƚƚŚĞLJůĞĂƌŶĞĚŚŽǁŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚŝƚǁĂƐƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJƐŚŽǁƚŚĞŝƌƵƐĞƌďĞŚĂǀŝŶŐĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŶŐ ŝŶ Ă ƌĞĂůŝƐƟĐ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĐŽŶƚĞdžƚdŚĞ ƵƐĞƌ ŶĞĞĚ ďĞĐĂŵĞ ŵƵĐŚ ŵŽƌĞƉĂůƉĂďůĞƚŽƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞǁŚŽŚĂĚďĞĞŶƐůŝŐŚƚůLJƐŬĞƉƟĐĂůďĞĨŽƌĞŚĞĂƌŝŶŐŽŶůLJƚŚĞǀĞƌďĂů ĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶ EŽǁ ƚŚĞ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞĐŽƵůĚ ůŝƚĞƌĂůůLJ ƐĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƐĐĞŶĞĂŶĚƌĞůĂƚĞĚĐŽŵƉůĞdžŝƟĞƐĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵǁĂƐƌĞŵŝŶĚĞĚŽĨƚŚĞŽůĚĂĚĂŐĞĂƉŝĐƚƵƌĞ ŝƐǁŽƌƚŚĂϭϬϬϬǁŽƌĚƐ^ĞĐŽŶĚ ďLJ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƐŬŝƚ ƚŚĞ
ƚĞĂŵ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŵŽƌĞ ĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƵƐĞƌ
ŵŽƌĞƚŚĂŶĂŶLJŽƚŚĞƌĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐůLJdŚĞLJ ĂůƐŽ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ Ă ĚĞĞƉĞƌ ĞŵƉĂƚŚLJĨŽƌ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƵƐĞƌ Ŷ ŽƌĚĞƌ ƚŽ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ ƚŚŝƐĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌĨŽƌůŝǀĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶŝƚďĞĐĂŵĞŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌLJ ƚŽ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ǁŚĂƚ ŝƚ ǁŽƵůĚĨĞĞůůŝŬĞƚŽďĞƐŽŵĞŽŶĞĞůƐĞdŚŝƌĚ ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚ ďƌŽƵŐŚƚ ƚŚĞ ĞŶƟƌĞ
ƚĞĂŵ ƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ŝŶ ĐƌĞĂƟǀĞ ĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟŽŶgtŝŬĞƚŚĞĂƚĞƌ ƚŚĞƚĞĂŵŚĂĚƚŽǁŽƌŬƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵůƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶgtĂƐƚůLJ ƚŚĞ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ ĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬ ĂŶĚ
ƌĞĂĐƟŽŶ ŚĞůƉĞĚ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞ ƚŚĞŝƌĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ dŚĞLJ ƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJĚŝĚŶƚ ŶĞĞĚ ĂŶ ĞŶĚŝŶŐ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƵƐĞƌ ƐƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶĂƚƚŚŝƐƉŽŝŶƚŝŶƐƚĞĂĚƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚŐĂǀĞƚŚĞŵĂĐŚĂŶĐĞƚŽůĞĂƌŶĂŶĚƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƚŚĞŐƌĞĂƚĞƌ ƐƚŽƌLJĂďŽƵƚǁŚLJĞŶĞƌŐLJǁĂƐĂŶŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚŝƐƐƵĞƚŽĂĚĚƌĞƐƐ
ϭϭϵ
Once our audience sawmdashinstead of hearing us describemdashthe userrsquos need in context they began to understand the critical value of our opportunity
We gained more
empathy for the
userrsquos situation and
good design begins
by understanding
basic human needs
Everyone had a role to play
in the production and it
united us more as a team
120
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ƐƚŽƌLJďĞĐŽŵĞƐƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌůLJ
ŵĞŵŽƌĂďůĞǁŚĞŶLJŽƵĞŶŐĂŐĞŵĞŵďĞƌƐŽĨƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞŝŶƐĂĨĞƌŽůĞƐ
ͻ ƚŚĞůƉƐǁŚĞŶĞĂĐŚĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝŶLJŽƵƌƐƚŽƌLJŚĂƐĂƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĂŐĞŶĚĂƚŚĂƚĚƌŝǀĞƐŚŝƐŚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶƐ
ͻ ^ŽŵĞƟŵĞƐŝƚŚĞůƉƐƚŽƵƐĞƐƚĞƌĞŽƚLJƉĞƐĨŽƌƐƵƉƉŽƌƟŶŐĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌƐƚŽŬĞĞƉƚŚĞƐƚŽƌLJƐŝŵƉůĞ
ͻ ŽŽĚƐƚŽƌLJƚĞůůŝŶŐĂŶĚĂĐƟŶŐĂƌĞĂůůĂďŽƵƚĂĐƟŽŶĂŶĚĚŝĂůŽŐƵĞDĂŬĞƐƵƌĞLJŽƵƌĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌƐƐƉĞĂŬƌĞĂůŝƐƟĐĂůůLJ ĂŶĚƚƌLJŶŽƚƚŽŵŝdžƐƚLJůĞƐŽĨƐƉĞĞĐŚĂŶĚǀŽĐĂďƵůĂƌLJƚŽŽŵƵĐŚƵŶůĞƐƐLJŽƵĂƌĞŐŽŝŶŐĨŽƌĂĐĞƌƚĂŝŶĞīĞĐƚ
ͻ hƐĞƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞĂƐĂĐŚĂŶĐĞƚŽƚĞƐƚĂŶĚŐĂƚŚĞƌĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬĂďŽƵƚLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂ
ͻ ŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƵƐŝŶŐĂŶĂƌƌĂƚŽƌĂƐŽŶĞŽĨƚŚĞĂĐƟŶŐƌŽůĞƐŝĨLJŽƵŶĞĞĚƚŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƚƌĂŶƐŝƟŽŶƐďĞƚǁĞĞŶƐƉĞĐŝĮĐƐĐĞŶĞƐŽƌƚŽĞdžƉůĂŝŶǁŚĂƚLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌŝƐƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
ͻ ŽŶƚǁŽƌƌLJĂďŽƵƚŐĞƫŶŐƚŚĞůŝŶĞƐƌŝŐŚƚDĂŶLJƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞƐĂƌĞďĞƐƚŝŵƉƌŽǀŝƐĞĚƵŶĚĞƌĚĞĂĚůŝŶĞ
ͻ ^ŽŵĞǁĂLJƐƚŽĚĞƐŝŐŶĂĨƵƚƵƌĞƐĐĞŶĞŝŶĐůƵĚĞŚĂǀŝŶŐLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌŵĞĞƚŝƚƐŽůĚĞƌǀĞƌƐŝŽŶĂƚĂďĂƌ ŽƌŚĂǀŝŶŐLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƵƐĞƌƚƵƌŶƚŽŝƚƐŽůĚĞƌǀĞƌƐŝŽŶĨŽƌŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůĂĚǀŝĐĞ
ZampgtdKEWhen do you see live
storytelling used in your
ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶŽƌŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJWhat makes it work
121
Additional examples
^ĞǀĞƌĂů ltŽƌĞĂŶƐ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚ Ă ŵŽĐŬĐŽŵŵĞƌĐŝĂů ŽŶ ŚŽǁ ŬŝŵĐŚĞĞ ĂƚƌĂĚŝƟŽŶĂů ĨĞƌŵĞŶƚĞĚ ltŽƌĞĂŶ ĚŝƐŚĐŽƵůĚďĞƚŚĞŶĞdžƚŚĞĂůƚŚƚŽŶŝĐĨŽƌƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚ
ŶĂƉƌŽǀŽĐĂƟǀĞƐĐĞŶĂƌŝŽĂŶZΘƚĞĂŵŝŶ ŶĚŝĂ ƐŚŽǁĞĚ ŚŽǁ Ă ƚLJƉŝĐĂů ƵƌďĂŶŵŝĚĚůĞĐůĂƐƐ ĨĂŵŝůLJƵƐĞĚǁĂƚĞƌďĞĨŽƌĞĂŶĚĂŌĞƌƚŚĞŝƌŶĞǁƐLJƐƚĞŵ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
FUTURETELLING | METHOD WORKSHEET
WůĂŶŶŝŶŐƉŽŝŶƚ zŽƵƌƐƚŽƌLJĨƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬ
Describe your future user in one
sentence or less What does
your user care about most
What do you want your
audience to understand about
LJŽƵƌƵƐĞƌƐĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůŶĞĞĚƐͿ
tŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶŝŶƚŚĞfuture Keep it to a simple
scene or two if possible
What other people (or objects)
will your user interact with in
ƚŚŝƐƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶ
How do you want the audience
to respond at the end of the
ƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶ
123
dŚĞƐŬĞƚĐŚĞƐĂŶĚƉůĂŶƐLJŽƵǁŝůůƐĞĞƚŽĚĂLJĂƌĞƐŝŵƉůLJĂƐƚĂƌƟŶŐƉŽŝŶƚŽƵƌĮƌƐƚŽǀĞƌĂůůƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
ǀĞƌLJƚŚŝŶŐŝŶƚŚŝƐƌŽŽŵŵĂLJĐŚĂŶŐĞƟŵĞĂŶĚƟŵĞĂŐĂŝŶĂƐǁĞŵŽǀĞĂŚĞĂĚďƵƚƚŚĞďĂƐŝĐƉŚŝůŽƐŽƉŚLJŽĨǁŚĂƚǁĞ ƌĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŝƐŐŽŝŶŐƚŽ
ƌĞŵĂŝŶǀĞƌLJŵƵĐŚĂƐŝƚŝƐƌŝŐŚƚŶŽǁ mdashWalt DisneyĞŶƚĞƌƚĂŝŶŵĞŶƚǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJ
WKdƚĞůĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƉĞĐŝĂůϭϵϲϲͿ
124
SOLUTIONChaptER 5
Shortcuts
Phase III Solution 125
White Spots 127
Paper Mockups 136
Dark Horse Prototype 145
Change Paths 149
Case study Yle 158
125
The third phase in the Foresight Framework brings you to a solution 0UUV]H[P]LZVS[PVUZHYLZWLJPAumlJ[Vyour industry users organization and individual skills
dŚĞĮƌƐƚƚǁŽƉŚĂƐĞƐŐĂǀĞLJŽƵŐƌŽƵŶĚŝŶŐdŚĞ ƚŚŝƌĚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ƐĞĞŬƐ ƚŽ ĚĞĮŶĞ ƚŚĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĞdžŝƐƚ ĂůŽŶŐ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƉĂƚŚƐ ƚŽ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ dŚĞ ƌĞĂƐŽŶ LJŽƵĂƐŬ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ŝƐ ƚŽ ŚĞůƉ ƵŶĐŽǀĞƌ ĂŶLJůŝŶŐĞƌŝŶŐ ĂƐƐƵŵƉƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ĐƌŝƟĐĂů ĂƌĞĂƐƚŚĂƚ ƐƟůů ŶĞĞĚ ƚŽ ďĞ ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞĚ ďLJ LJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵďĞĨŽƌĞĐŽŵŵŝƫŶŐĂŶLJƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐͶĮŶĂŶĐŝĂůŚƵŵĂŶŽƌŽƚŚĞƌ dŚŝƐ ƉŚĂƐĞ ŝƐ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ŽŶ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŶŐ
LJŽƵƌ ǀŝĞǁ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƚŽ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂĐƟŽŶ ůů ŽĨ ƚŚĞ WŚĂƐĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĂƌĞĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞůLJ ĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ƚŽ ĐŽŶǀĞƌŐĞ ĨƌŽŵŵƵůƟƉůĞƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐŵĂƌŬĞƚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐƚŽƚŚĞƐĞůĞĐƚϭʹϮƉƌŽƉŽƐĂůƐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵǁŝůůƚĂŬĞĨŽƌǁĂƌĚĂƐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐzŽƵ ǁŝůů ůĞĂƌŶ ƚŚƌĞĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŝŶ ƚŚŝƐ
ƉŚĂƐĞͻ tŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐͻ WĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐͻ ŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚ
Phase III Solution
126
PHASE III SOLUTIONdŚĞ ƚŚŝƌĚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ƐĞĞŬƐ ƚŽ ĚĞĮŶĞ ƚŚĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ƚŚĂƚĞdžŝƐƚĂůŽŶŐĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƉĂƚŚƐƚŽ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǁŚŝĐŚ ĂƌĞ ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐ ƚŽ LJŽƵƌŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚƚĞĂŵƐŬŝůůƐ
White SpotsĮŶĚƐŚŝĚĚĞŶŵĂƌŬĞƚƐĂŶĚƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐĂďƌŽĂĚůŽŽŬĂƚƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĞƟƚŽƌůĂŶĚƐĐĂƉĞїƉĂŐĞϭϮϳ
Paper Mockups ĐƌĞĂƚĞƚĂŶŐŝďůĞŵŽĚĞůƐŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂƐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵĐĂŶƚĞƐƚĂƚůŽǁĐŽƐƚĨŽƌŚŝŐŚůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐǀĂůƵĞїƉĂŐĞϭϯϲ
Change Paths ƉůŽƚƚŚĞŵĂũŽƌŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐƚŚĂƚLJŽƵǁŝůůŶĞĞĚƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞŽŶLJŽƵƌƉĂƚŚƚŽĂĐƟŽŶїƉĂŐĞϭϰϵ
ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐŝƚĞƌĂƟŽŶis the Dark Horse PrototypeїƉĂŐĞϭϰϱ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĚƌŝǀĞƚŚŝƐƉŚĂƐĞͻ ŽǁĐĂŶǁĞĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞƚŚĞ
ŵƵůƟƉůĞƉĂƚŚƐƉŽƐƐŝďůĞƚŽŐĞƚĨƌŽŵƚŽĚĂLJƚŽƚŽŵŽƌƌŽǁ ƐĨƵƚƵƌĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
ͻ gtŽŽŬŝŶŐĂƚǁŚĂƚǁĞǀĞůĞĂƌŶĞĚŚŽǁůŽŶŐĚŽĞƐĞĂĐŚƐƚĞƉƚĂŬĞĂůŽŶŐƚŚĞǀĂƌŝŽƵƐƉĂƚŚƐ
ͻ tŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞĐƌŝƟĐĂůƉŽŝŶƚƐĨŽƌĐŚĂŶŐĞĂŶĚǁŚŝĐŚŽŶĞƐĂƌĞŝŶŽƵƌĐŽŶƚƌŽů
127
White Spots is a strategic method for studying the opportunity space KLAumlULKI`[^VZHSPLU[PZZLZ
WHY ITS HELPFULͻ dŽƐLJƐƚĞŵĂƟĐĂůůLJĮŶĚŶĞǁƐŽůƵƟŽŶ
ĂƌĞĂƐŽƌƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŵĂƌŬĞƚƐƚŚĂƚĂƌĞƵŶŬŶŽǁŶŽƌŝŐŶŽƌĞĚďLJĐŽŵƉĞƟƟŽŶ
ͻ dŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĨŽƌƚŚĞĨƵŶĚĂŵĞŶƚĂůǀĂůƵĞŽĨLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂ
WHEN TO USE ITdŚĞtŚŝƚĞ ƉŽƚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐĂƋƵŝĐŬǁĂLJƚŽŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞĐŽŵƉĞƟŶŐƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐĂŶĚƐŝŵŝůĂƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐĂŐĂŝŶƐƚƚǁŽĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐŝŶ ŽƌĚĞƌ ƚŽ ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ ĂƐƐĞƐƐ ĂƌĞĂƐ ŽĨƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJtŚŝƚĞ ^ƉŽƚƐ ĂƐƐŝƐƚƐ ƚŚĞ ƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĨŽƌ
ŚŝŐŚ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚŐƌĞǁ ĨƌŽŵ ƐŝŵŝůĂƌ ƚŽŽůƐ ƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ƚŚĞĐƌŽƐƐͲŝŵƉĂĐƚ ŵĂƚƌŝdž ŝŶŝƟĂůůLJ ĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚĞĚŝŶ ƚŚĞ ϭϵϱϬƐ ƚŚĞ ŐƌŽǁƚŚͲƐŚĂƌĞ ŵĂƚƌŝdžĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ ďLJ ŽƐƚŽŶ ŽŶƐƵůƟŶŐ ƌŽƵƉďĂĐŬ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ϭϵϳϬƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞƐ ƚŚĞ
White Spots
ƉŽƉƵůĂƌ ƋƵĂĚƌĂŶƚ ĨŽƌ ĐĂƐŚ ĐŽǁƐͿ ĂŶĚƚŚĞďůƵĞŽĐĞĂŶƐĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞϮϬϬϱďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŬůƵĞKĐĞĂŶ^ƚƌĂƚĞŐLJdŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚŝƐƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĚĂƐĂϮdžϮŵĂƚƌŝdž
ŝŶ ǁŚŝĐŚ ĞĂĐŚ ĂdžŝƐ ĚĞĮŶĞƐ LJŽƵƌ ĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶĐƌŝƚĞƌŝĂDŽƌĞƚŚĂŶĂĐŽŵƉĞƟƟǀĞĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐƚŚĞtŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵŝƚĞƌĂƚĞLJŽƵƌ ŝĚĞĂ Ɛ ƉŽƐŝƟŽŶŝŶŐ ŚĂŶŐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐǁŝůůĐŚĂŶŐĞLJŽƵƌĐŽŵƉĞƟƟŽŶ
What you gethƐƵĂůůLJ Ă ĨĂǀŽƌĞĚ ƚŽŽů ŽĨ ĐŽŶƐƵůƚĂŶƚƐĂŶĚ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝƐƚƐ ƚŚĞ tŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ŚĞůƉƐ LJŽƵ ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ LJŽƵƌĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŽĮŶĚŚŝĚĚĞŶŵĂƌŬĞƚƐĂƐǁĞůůĂƐ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐ Ă ďƌŽĂĚ ůŽŽŬ Ăƚ ƚŚĞ ĞdžŝƐƟŶŐůĂŶĚƐĐĂƉĞŽĨĐŽŵƉĞƟƟŽŶdŚĞƵŶĮůůĞĚŽƌΗǁŚŝƚĞΗƐƉŽƚƐŝŶƚŚĞŵĂƚƌŝdžǁŝůůƉŽŝŶƚLJŽƵƚŽƵŶĞdžƉůŽƌĞĚŽƌŶĞǁŽƉĞŶĂƌĞĂƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚ ampŝŶĚŝŶŐ ΗĚĂƌŬΗ ƐƉŽƚƐ ǁŝůů ƐŚŽǁĂƌĞĂƐ ŽĨ ŚŝŐŚ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƐĂƚƵƌĂƟŽŶ ǁŚŝĐŚŵĂLJĂůƐŽďĞǁŚĂƚLJŽƵƐĞĞŬ
128^ŽƵƌĐĞltĞǀŝŶZĞLJŶŽůĚƐ^ƚĂŶĨŽƌĚhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ DϰϭϬϮϬϬϵ
Letrsquos look at an exampleLJŽƵŶŐĂĞƌŽŶĂƵƟĐƐĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŚĂĚĂůǁĂLJƐĞŶũŽLJĞĚƐƚŽƌŝĞƐŽĨŇLJŝŶŐĐĂƌƐĂŶĚŚĞǁĂƐŶŽǁŝŶĂƉŽƐŝƟŽŶƚŽƉƌŽƉŽƐĞƚŚĞĐŽŶĐĞƉƚĨŽƌƌĞĂůĨƵŶĚŝŶŐdŚĞĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌǁĞŶƚďĂĐŬƚŽŚŝƐŽŶƚĞdžƚ
DĂƉƐĞŚĂĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚĮǀĞŵĂƉƐƐŽŚĞĐŽƵůĚďĞƩĞƌƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚƚŚĞƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐĂŵŽŶŐĞůĞŵĞŶƚƐŌĞƌ ƌĞǀŝĞǁŝŶŐĂůů ŚŝƐŵĂƉƐŚĞƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚĐŽƐƚĂŶĚƵƟůŝƚLJĂƐƚǁŽĐƌŝƟĐĂů ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ ĂƐ ƚŚĞ ďĂƐŝƐ ĨŽƌ ŚŝƐtŚŝƚĞ ^ƉŽƚƐ ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ĂĐŚ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶďĞĐĂŵĞĂŶĂdžŝƐĂŶĚŚĞĚĞĮŶĞĚŽƉƉŽƐŝŶŐĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƐ ĂƐ ĞǀĂůƵĂƟŽŶ ĮůƚĞƌƐ ĨŽƌ ĐŽƐƚĂŶĚƵƟůŝƚLJĞ ƌĞĐĂůůĞĚ ŚŝƐ ǁŽƌŬ Ăƚ ŽĞŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ
E^ĂŶĚĂůƐŽƐƉŽŬĞǁŝƚŚƐĞǀĞƌĂůŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĞdžƉĞƌƚƐ ƚŽ ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJ ĂŶĚ ŵĂƉ ŵƵůƟƉůĞĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ŵĂƚƌŝdž Ğ ĨŽƵŶĚ ĂŶŽƉĞŶ ƐƉĂĐĞ ŽŶ ŚŝƐ ŵĂƚƌŝdžͶĂ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŵĂƌŬĞƚ ŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ĨŽƌ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů ŇLJŝŶŐĐĂƌƐ
1313
1313
13
+1 $ 131
131 4223 )0
$ $(
$ $(
$(4225 )0 $ $
04225 )0
+)$ (+
$( +
$+(
$1 (
(
$
$ 10
+ $+
$1 -1
(++
(+
$+$1(
1
13
13
1313
ϭϮϵ
Instructionsϭ ƌĂǁƚǁŽŝŶƚĞƌƐĞĐƟŶŐůŝŶĞƐƚŽ
ĐƌĞĂƚĞĂϮdžϮŵĂƚƌŝdžϮ ZĞǀŝƐŝƚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐůĂƐƚŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ
ĚĞŶƟĨLJƚǁŽĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĂƚƐƚƌƵĐŬLJŽƵĂƐďĞŝŶŐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƟŶŐŽƌŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƚŽLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐŽǀĞƌĂůůůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐĚǀĂŶĐĞĚƚĞĂŵƐŵĂLJƐĞůĞĐƚƚŚĞŝƌƚŽƉƚǁŽĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐǁŝƚŚŽƵƚƚŚĞĂŝĚŽĨĂŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ
ϯ tƌŝƚĞŽŶĞĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŽŶƚŚĞŵĂƚƌŝdž ƐdžͲĂdžŝƐĂŶĚƚŚĞŽƚŚĞƌŽŶƚŚĞLJͲĂdžŝƐ
ϰ ĞĮŶĞŽƉƉŽƐŝƚĞĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƐĨŽƌĞĂĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶdŚŝƐƚĂƐŬŵĂLJƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĞǀĞƌĂůŝƚĞƌĂƟŽŶƐƚŽĮŶĚĂƚŚŽƵŐŚƞƵůƉĂŝƌŽĨĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƐdŚĞůĂďĞůƐǁŝůůĚŝƌĞĐƚĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ
ϱ dŚĞŶƉůĂĐĞĂŶĞdžƚƌĞŵĞĞdžĂŵƉůĞŝŶĞĂĐŚŵĂƚƌŝdž ƐĐŽƌŶĞƌďĂƐĞĚŽŶLJŽƵƌĂdžĞƐdŚĞĐŽƌŶĞƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐǁŝůůŚĞůƉĂŶĐŚŽƌLJŽƵƌĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐĨLJŽƵĐĂŶƚŝĚĞŶƟĨLJĂŶLJĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐŐŽďĂĐŬƚŽƐƚĞƉϯƚŽƚƌLJĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƐĞƚŽĨĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƐĨĂůůĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƐƉƌŽǀĞĨƌƵŝƚůĞƐƐƚŚĞŶŐŽďĂĐŬƚŽƐƚĞƉϮ
ĂŶĚƉŝĐŬĂŶŽƚŚĞƌĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶŽĨĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐ
ϲ ŌĞƌLJŽƵŚĂǀĞƉůŽƩĞĚĂƚůĞĂƐƚŽŶĞĞdžĂŵƉůĞŝŶĞĂĐŚƋƵĂĚƌĂŶƚƉůĂĐĞŽƚŚĞƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐĂƚǀĂƌŝŽƵƐƉŽŝŶƚƐŝŶƚŚĞŵĂƚƌŝdžzŽƵƌŐŽĂůŝƐƚŽĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĂƐŵƵĐŚŽĨƚŚĞŵĂƚƌŝdžĂƐƉŽƐƐŝďůĞĂƌŬƐƉŽƚƐǁŚŝĐŚŚĂǀĞŵĂŶLJĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞĐůƵƐƚĞƌƐƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƌĞĂƐŽĨŚŝŐŚĐŽŵƉĞƟƟŽŶĂŶĚŵĂƌŬĞƚƐĂƚƵƌĂƟŽŶ
ϳ ampŝŶĚĂƌĞĂƐŝŶƚŚĞŵĂƚƌŝdžƚŚĂƚůĂĐŬĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐdŚĞƐĞĂƌĞĂƐǁŝůůĂƉƉĞĂƌĂƐĞŵƉƚLJǁŚŝƚĞƐƉŽƚƐŝŶLJŽƵƌŵĂƚƌŝdžĂŶĚƚŚĞLJƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƉŽƐƐŝďůĞŵĂƌŬĞƚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐ
ϴ ŝƌĐůĞŽŶĞǁŚŝƚĞĂƌĞĂƚŚĂƚŵŽƐƚƐƚƌŝŬĞƐLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŝīĞƌĞŶƚƚĞĂŵƐǁŝůůĂƉƉůLJĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĞǀĂůƵĂƟŽŶĮůƚĞƌƐďĂƐĞĚŽŶƚŚĞŝƌƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJƉƌŝŽƌŝƟĞƐŐƌŽƵƉŐŽĂůƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌŶĞĞĚƐ
ϵ ĞƐĐƌŝďĞĂĨƵƚƵƌĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŚĂƚĐŽƵůĚĞdžŝƐƚŝŶƚŚŝƐƐƉĂĐĞtŚĂƚǁŽƵůĚƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚůŽŽŬůŝŬĞtŚĂƚƚLJƉĞƐŽĨƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐĮƚďĞƐƚŚĞƌĞ
ї ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ ĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
13013
1 I start by drawing
a big cross
2-3 I pick cost and utility as the top two dimensions from my previous Context Maps to create my two axes
4 I decide to start simply
with military and
civilian as endpoints for
utility against high and
low cost
5 I identify an extreme example for each quadrantrsquos corner to pretest the matrix
6 I add many examples on the matrix using arrows to show movement
7-9 I mark one white spot
and ponder what could
realistically exist today
as a new industry visionSource Kevin Reynolds Stanford University ME410 2009
131
Drawing insights amp implicationsdŚĞĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌǁŝƐŚĞĚƚŽďĞƚĂŬĞŶƐĞƌŝŽƵƐůLJďLJƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŝŶǀĞƐƚŽƌƐĂŶĚƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐƐŽŚĞĚĞĐŝĚĞĚ ƚŽŽŵŝƚƉŽƉƵůĂƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ ĨƌŽŵƚŚĞ ŵŽǀŝĞƐ ĂŶĚ ƐĐŝĞŶĐĞ ĮĐƟŽŶ ƐƚŽƌŝĞƐŝŶ ŚŝƐ ŵĂƚƌŝdž LJ ĨŽĐƵƐŝŶŐ ŽŶ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ŚĞ ĐŽŶĮƌŵĞĚƚŚĂƚ ĐŝǀŝůŝĂŶ ƚƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚ ĂŝƌĐƌĂŌ ƚĞŶĚĞĚ ƚŽďĞůĞƐƐĞdžƉĞŶƐŝǀĞƚŚĂŶŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐůĂƌŐĞůLJ ƐŝŶĐĞ ǁĂƌƟŵĞ ĚĞŵĂŶĚ ŵĂŬĞƐĐŽƐƚůĞƐƐĂƉƌŝŽƌŝƚLJŶ ĂĚĚŝƟŽŶ ŚĞ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞtŚŝƚĞ ^ƉŽƚƐ
ŵĂƚƌŝdžĂƐĂĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶĂŝĚƚŚĞůƉĞĚŚŝŵ ƚŽ ĞdžƉůĂŝŶ ƚŚĞ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ŶĞĞĚ ĂŶĚƟŵŝŶŐ ŽĨ ŚŝƐ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƚŽ ƐĞǀĞƌĂů ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐǁŚŽǁĞƌĞƵŶĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌǁŝƚŚƚŚĞĂĞƌŽƐƉĂĐĞ ĂŶĚ ĂƵƚŽŵŽƟǀĞ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĞƐdŚĞ ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌ ǁĂƐ ĂďůĞ ƚŽ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚ ĂĐŽŵƉůĞdžƉŝĐƚƵƌĞĞĂƐŝůLJ ĞƐƉĞĐŝĂůůLJƐŚŽǁŝŶŐƚŚĞ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ƌŽůĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJŝŶďŽƚŚůĞĂĚŝŶŐĂŶĚĨƵŶĚŝŶŐŶĞǁƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐĨŽƌĚƵĂůͲƵƐĞĂŝƌĐƌĂŌ
tŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ ŚĞůƉ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ tŚŝƚĞ ^ƉŽƚƐŵĂƉƉŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌ ĐŽƵůĚ ũƵƐƟĨLJŵŽƌĞĐůĞĂƌůLJǁŚLJƚŚĞƚǁŽĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐŽĨƵƟůŝƚLJ ĂŶĚ ĐŽƐƚ ǁĞƌĞ ĂƉƉƌŽƉƌŝĂƚĞ ĮůƚĞƌƐƚŽĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƚŚŝƐŵĂƌŬĞƚŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJdŚĞŐƌŽƵƉ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ ƌĂŝƐĞĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ĚƌŝǀĞƌƐĂŶĚ ŝƐƐƵĞƐ ƐƵĐŚĂƐ ƐĂĨĞƚLJ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞŵĞŶƚƐƚŚĂƚ ǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ ĐƌŝƟĐĂů ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵůĂĚŽƉƟŽŶĂŶĚƵƐĞŽĨƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŇLJŝŶŐĐĂƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŵŝĚͲƚŽĨĂƌĨƵƚƵƌĞƌŵĞĚ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚŝƐ ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ ĂƐ ǁĞůů
ĂƐ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƟŶŐ ŚŝƐ ĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƚŚĞ ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌ ƐŽŽŶ ĞdžĐŝƚĞĚ ƐĞǀĞƌĂůŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐ ƚŚĂƚ ǁĞƌĞ ĞdžƉůŽƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚƐƉĂĐĞŶƚŚĞĞŶĚŚĞƌĞĐĞŝǀĞĚƚǁŽƵŶĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ũŽď ŽīĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ĐŚĂŶĐĞƚŽ ĂƉƉůLJ ĨŽƌ ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐ ŝŶ Ă ŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶ ǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞ ƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽ ĨƌĂŵĞ LJŽƵƌ ŐƌŽƵƉ Ɛ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ ĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚŝĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĂdžĞƐͿĂŶĚ
ĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƐĚŝĚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵƐƚƌƵŐŐůĞǁŝƚŚtŚLJ
ͻ ŽƵůĚLJŽƵĂĚĚŵŽƌĞĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐĨƌŽŵŽƚŚĞƌĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐ ŵŽǀŝĞƐƐĐŝĞŶĐĞĮĐƟŽŶ ĂŶĚLJŽƵƌƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůůŝǀĞƐ ŽǁĚŽƚŚĞƐĞĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐĐŚĂŶŐĞƚŚĞƚLJƉĞƐŽĨƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐďĞŝŶŐŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐĞĚƚŽƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚ
ͻ ŽĞƐLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŬŶŽǁĂŶLJĞdžƉĞƌƚƐǁŚŽĐŽƵůĚĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞŽƌĐŚĞĐŬLJŽƵƌĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ
ͻ ŽĐĞƌƚĂŝŶƚLJƉĞƐŽĨƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐĚŽŵŝŶĂƚĞƚŚĞůĂŶĚƐĐĂƉĞ ŽǁŵŝŐŚƚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝnjĞŽƌĐĂƚĞŐŽƌŝnjĞƚŚŽƐĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶĐůƵƐƚĞƌƐ
132
Although I developed a Progression Curve of flying cars from the movies and books I focus on real solutions in my White Spots analysis
This 2x2 visual helped
me tell a complex story
about the market
opportunity and
competition in terms of
the two biggest criteria of
cost and useSource Kevin Reynolds Stanford University ME410 2009
133
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ĚĞŶƟĨLJĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƐƚŚĂƚĂƌĞƵŶƵƐƵĂů
ĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚƐŽƌƉƌŽǀŽĐĂƟǀĞƐƵĐŚĂƐĨĂĐƚƵĂůƉĞƌĐĞŝǀĞĚ ǁŚŝĐŚŵĂLJŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞƵŶĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐ
ͻ gtĂďĞůŝŶŐƚŚĞĂdžĞƐŝƐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƉĂƌƚŽĨtŚŝƚĞ^ƉĂĐĞƐdƌLJƚŽĂǀŽŝĚǀĂůƵĞͲĚƌŝǀĞŶũƵĚŐŵĞŶƚƐĨŽƌƚŚĞĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƐƐƵĐŚĂƐŶĞŐĂƟǀĞŽƌďĞƩĞƌ ǁŚŝĐŚĐĂŶƵŶĨĂŝƌůLJŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞŚŽǁLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƐĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ
ͻ ŽŶƚƐƚƌĞƐƐŝĨLJŽƵƌĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚƐŽƌĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĂƌĞŶŽƚůĞĂĚŝŶŐƚŽĂĨƌƵŝƞƵůŐƌŽƵƉĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶŶƐƚĞĂĚĚƌŽƉƚŚĞŵĂŶĚƐƚĂƌƚŽǀĞƌǁŝƚŚĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƐĞƚ
ͻ hƐĞĂƌƌŽǁƐĨŽƌĂŶLJĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐƚŚĂƚĮƚĂĐƌŽƐƐŵƵůƟƉůĞƉŽŝŶƚƐŝŶƚŚĞŵĂƚƌŝdžƚŽŚĞůƉLJŽƵƐŚŽǁĐŚĂŶŐĞ
ͻ ŽLJŽƵŚĂǀĞĂŐƵƚƐĞŶƐĞŽĨǁŚĂƚĂŶŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJĐŽƵůĚďĞĂůƌĞĂĚLJdƌLJƚŽƌĞǀĞƌƐĞĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌƚŚĞtŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐƚŽƐƵƉƉŽƌƚLJŽƵƌŚLJƉŽƚŚĞƐŝƐĂŶĚƐĞĞŝĨĂŶLJŶĞǁŐĂƉƐĂƌĞƵŶĐŽǀĞƌĞĚ
ZampgtdKEBefore your team picks
which two dimensions would
you start your analysis with
Why
134
Additional examples
Ŷ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ƚĞĂŵ ƌĞǀŝĞǁĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ĨŽƌ ĂĚƵůƚĐŽŶƟŶƵŝŶŐ ĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ ƚŽ ƐĞĞ ǁŚŝĐŚ ĐŽŵƉĞƟƚŽƌƐĞŶŚĂŶĐĞĚŽƌƐŝŵƉůŝĮĞĚƚŚĞůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ
ƵƌŽƉĞĂŶ ƚĞĂŵ ĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞĚ ǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ ŽĨ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůďĂŶŬŝŶŐƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐĐŽĚĞĚďLJĐŽůŽƌ ĂůŽŶŐƚŚĞƚǁŽĂdžĞƐŽĨŶĞĞĚƐĂŶĚĐŽŵƉůŝĂŶĐĞ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
WHITE SPOTS | method worksheet
136
Paper Mockups asks participants to physically model a future system
When to use itͻ dŽďĞƩĞƌƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚĂŶĂŵďŝŐƵŽƵƐ
ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĐŽŶĐĞƉƚͻ dŽǀŝƐƵĂůůLJĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚĞĂŶĞǁ
ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉƌŽƉŽƐĂůƚŽŽƚŚĞƌƐͻ dŽĞŶƐƵƌĞƌĂƉŝĚĐLJĐůĞƐŽĨĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬ
ĂŶĚůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐͻ dŽƌĂůůLJƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĨŽƌĂŶĞǁŝĚĞĂǁŝƚŚ
ƚŚŽƐĞĂƌŽƵŶĚLJŽƵ
Why itrsquos helpfulampŝƌƐƚ ƚŚĞ WĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐŵĞƚŚŽĚ ŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵ ƚŽ ůŝƚĞƌĂůůLJ ƐĞĞǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ĂƌĞ ĚŽŝŶŐzŽƵĐŽŶŶĞĐƚLJŽƵƌŵŝŶĚƚŽLJŽƵƌŚĂŶĚƐďLJƚĂŬŝŶŐĂĚǀĂŶƚĂŐĞŽĨƉŚLJƐŝĐĂůĨŽƌŵĞLJŽŶĚĂ ŵĞŶƚĂů ƉŝĐƚƵƌĞ ŽĨ LJŽƵƌ ŝĚĞĂ LJŽƵ ǁŝůůŚĂǀĞ ƉŚLJƐŝĐĂůůLJ ŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůŝnjĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŝĚĞĂ ƐĐŽŵƉůĞdž ŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐƚŚĂƚ ƵŶĚĞƌůŝĞ ƚŚĞ ƵƐĞƌ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞWƌŽƚŽƚLJƉŝŶŐŵĂŬĞƐĂŶĂďƐƚƌĂĐƚŝĚĞĂŵŽƌĞƌĞĂůĂŶĚĂĐĐĞƐƐŝďůĞƚŽŽƚŚĞƌƐ^ĞĐŽŶĚLJŽƵŐĂŝŶĂƚĂŶŐŝďůĞƉƌŽƉhƐĞƌƐ
ĂƌĞ ŐŽŽĚ Ăƚ ƐƵƐƉĞŶĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĚŝƐďĞůŝĞĨǁŚĞŶƐĞĞŝŶŐĂ ƌŽƵŐŚŵŽĚĞůŵĂĚĞ ĨƌŽŵƉĂƉĞƌ ĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƐŝŵƉůĞ ŽďũĞĐƚƐ ĞĨŽƌĞ
Paper Mockups
LJŽƵŚĂǀĞĂĐŚĂŶĐĞƚŽǀĞƌďĂůŝnjĞLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂĂŐŽŽĚŵŽĐŬƵƉǁŝůůŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐĂŶĚƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ĨƌŽŵ ŽƚŚĞƌƐ ŐƌĞĂƚ ŵŽĐŬƵƉǁŝůůĐĂƵƐĞƉĞŽƉůĞƚŽĂƐŬǁŚLJĚŽĞƐŶƚƚŚŝƐĨƵƚƵƌĞĂůƌĞĂĚLJĞdžŝƐƚƚŽĚĂLJdŚŝƌĚLJŽƵƐĂǀĞŵŽŶĞLJLJƵƐŝŶŐƉĂƉĞƌ
ĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ŽĸĐĞ ƐƵƉƉůŝĞƐ LJŽƵ ŐĂŝŶ ĂĐŚĞĂƉǁĂLJ ƚŽƉƌĞͲƚĞƐƚĂŶ ŝĚĞĂďĞĨŽƌĞ ŝƚďĞĐŽŵĞƐ ƚŽŽ ĨŽƌŵĂůŝnjĞĚ Žƌ ƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞͲŝŶƚĞŶƐŝǀĞ dŽĚĂLJƐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĐŽƐƚƐƵƐƵĂůůLJůŝĞŝŶďƵŝůĚŝŶŐĂŶĚǀĞƌŝĨLJŝŶŐǁŚĂƚŚĂƐ ĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ǀĂůƵĞ ƐŝŵƉůĞ ƉĂƉĞƌĚĞƐŝŐŶ ŝƐ ŽŌĞŶ ƚŚĞ ďĞƐƚ ǁĂLJ ƚŽ ƐƚĂƌƚĂ ĚŝĂůŽŐƵĞ ǁŝƚŚ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů ƵƐĞƌƐ ĂŶĚƚĞƐƚ LJŽƵƌ ŝĚĞĂƐ ǀĂůƵĞ ĞĂƌůLJ ǁŝƚŚ ůŝƩůĞĐŽŵŵŝƚŵĞŶƚ Ɛ dŚŽŵĂƐ ĚŝƐŽŶ ŽŶĐĞũŽŬĞĚtĞŶŽǁŬŶŽǁĂ ƚŚŽƵƐĂŶĚǁĂLJƐŶŽƚƚŽďƵŝůĚĂůŝŐŚƚďƵůď
What you getdŚĞ ƉƌŽǀĞƌďŝĂů ŵŽĐŬͲƵƉ ŝƐ ƚŚĞ ƉĂƉĞƌĂŝƌƉůĂŶĞtŝƚŚWĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐLJŽƵŐĞƚĂƚĂŶŐŝďůĞ ϯ ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ LJŽƵƌ ŝĚĞĂƚŚĂƚLJŽƵĐĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞƐŚĂƌĞĂŶĚƌĞďƵŝůĚĂƚůŽǁĐŽƐƚĨŽƌŚŝŐŚůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐǀĂůƵĞ
137
Source Ming-Li Chai 2008
Letrsquos look at an example ĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞ ZΘ ƚĞĂŵ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ ĂWĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉĨŽƌĂŶĞǁŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂǁŚŝĐŚǁŽƵůĚďĞǀĞƌLJĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƚŚĂŶƚŚĞŝƌĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ Ɛ ƵƐƵĂů ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐdŚĞLJŝŵĂŐŝŶĞĚĂŶĞǁƌĞĂůĞƐƚĂƚĞƐĞƌǀŝĐĞďĂƐĞĚŽŶƐŽĐŝĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐƚŚĂƚǁŽƵůĚďĞďƵŝůƚŽŶĂĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJƉůĂƞŽƌŵdŚĞ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞ ǁĂƐ ƐŝŵƉůLJ ŵĂĚĞ ĨƌŽŵĐŽůŽƌĞĚ ĐŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶ ƉĂƉĞƌ ƐƚƌŝŶŐĐŚŝůĚƌĞŶ ƐŵŽĚĞůŝŶŐĚŽƵŐŚ ƐƟĐŬĞƌƐĂŶĚĐƌĂŌ ƉŝƉĞ ĐůĞĂŶĞƌƐ dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĐƌĞĂƚĞĚ ĂƐĞůĞĐƟŽŶ ŽĨ ŚŽƵƐĞƐ ŝŶ Ă ŶĞŝŐŚďŽƌŚŽŽĚƐŽŵĞŽĨǁŚŝĐŚǁĞƌĞŵĂƌŬĞĚĨŽƌƐĂůĞ
ĂƐĞĚŽŶh^ĚĞŵŽŐƌĂƉŚŝĐĚĂƚĂƚŚĞLJŬŶĞǁ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ ŽĨ LJŽƵŶŐ ĨƌŝĞŶĚƐ ƐŚĂƌĞƚŚĞŝƌ ƌĞĐŽŵŵĞŶĚĂƟŽŶƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ŐŽŽĚŶĞŝŐŚďŽƌŚŽŽĚƐ Ŷ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞ ƚŚĞƚĞĂŵŵŽĚĞůĞĚĂŐƌŽƵƉŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞ ůŝŶŬĞĚƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ Ă ĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶ ŽĨƉƌŽĨĞƐƐŝŽŶĂů ĂŶĚ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů ĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐdŚŝƐ ŐƌŽƵƉǁŽƵůĚ ƌĞĐĞŝǀĞ ƌĞŐƵůĂƌ ƐƚĂƚƵƐƵƉĚĂƚĞƐĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞůŽĐĂůƉƌŽƉĞƌƟĞƐĞĨŽƌĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂŵŽƌĞĨŽƌŵĂůƉƌŽƉŽƐĂů
ƚŚĞƚĞĂŵƵƐĞĚƚŚĞŝƌWĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƚŽŚĞůƉƚĞƐƚ ƚŚĞ ŝĚĞĂ ǁŝƚŚ ĨƌŝĞŶĚůLJ ĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐ ŝŶƚŚĞŝƌ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĚŝǀŝƐŝŽŶ dŚŝƐ ŐĂǀĞ ƚŚĞŵŵŽƌĞĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬĂďŽƵƚǁŚĂƚƚŽŝŵƉƌŽǀĞ
138
Instructionsϭ ĞĐŝĚĞǁŚĂƚLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƚŽďƵŝůĚŽƌ
ƚĞƐƚĂƐĂŵŽĐŬƵƉampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞLJŽƵƌŵŽĐŬƵƉĐŽƵůĚďĞƚŚĞĞŶƟƌĞƐLJƐƚĞŵŽĨĐŽŵƉŽŶĞŶƚƐŽƌĂŵŽĚĞůŽĨĂůůƚŚĞŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶƐŝŶLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂ
Ϯ ampŝŶĚƐŽŵĞĐŚĞĂƉƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉŝŶŐŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůƐŶĞĂƌďLJ ƐƵĐŚĂƐĚŝƐĐĂƌĚĞĚƉĂƉĞƌĂŶĚƉůĂƐƟĐĐƵƉƐ
ϯ EĞdžƚďƌŝŶŐLJŽƵƌĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƚŽůŝĨĞďLJďƵŝůĚŝŶŐŝƚĂƐĂƚŚƌĞĞͲĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶĂůŽďũĞĐƚŽƌĂƌƟĨĂĐƚ
ϰ ^ŚĂƌĞLJŽƵƌŵŽĐŬƵƉǁŝƚŚƐŽŵĞŽŶĞĨŽƌĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬ
ї ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ ĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚŝĐŚĂƐƉĞĐƚƐŽĨLJŽƵƌƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞ
ĚŝĚƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞĨŽĐƵƐŽŶtŚLJ
ͻ tŚŝĐŚĞůĞŵĞŶƚƐŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂĚŝĚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵůĞĂǀĞŽƵƚŽĨLJŽƵƌƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞtŚLJ
ͻ tŚŝĐŚƉĂƌƚƐŽĨƚŚĞƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞĞdžŝƐƚƚŽĚĂLJ ĂŶĚǁŚŝĐŚƉĂƌƚƐŶĞĞĚƚŽďĞďƵŝůƚtŚŝĐŚƉŝĞĐĞƐĐĂŶŶŽƚĞdžŝƐƚƚŽĚĂLJ
ͻ ŽǁƐŚŽƵůĚLJŽƵĚŽĐƵŵĞŶƚĂŶĚĐĂƉƚƵƌĞƚŚĞůĞƐƐŽŶƐĨƌŽŵďƵŝůĚŝŶŐĂŶĚƉƌĞƐĞŶƟŶŐƚŚŝƐƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞ
ϭϯϵ
13
1 We choose to build the
entire system because we
want to understand how
the various parts interact
2-3 We use materials nearby to build quickly including string and colored paper
4 One of our team members sits down to explain our idea to a group of colleagues
140
Drawing insights amp implicationsŶ ŝŵŵĞĚŝĂƚĞ ůĞƐƐŽŶ ǁĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ ďƵŝůĚŝŶŐĂŶ ŝĚĞĂ ŵĂŬĞƐ ŝƚ ŵŽƌĞ ƌĞĂů ƐŽŵĞŚŽǁdŚĞZΘƚĞĂŵǁŽƌŬĞĚƐŽŽŌĞŶŽŶĚŝŐŝƚĂůĚĞǀŝĐĞƐĂŶĚŝŶƚŚĞŝƌŚĞĂĚƐƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJĨŽƌŐŽƚŚŽǁ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ĂŶĚ ĨƌĂŶŬůLJ ƐĂƟƐĨLJŝŶŐͿƚĂĐƟůĞĐƌĂŌƐŵĂŶƐŚŝƉĐĂŶďĞLJ ŵĂŬŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŝĚĞĂ ƚĂŬĞ ƉŚLJƐŝĐĂů
ƐŚĂƉĞƚŚĞLJĂůƐŽƵŶĚĞƌƐƚŽŽĚŵŽƌĞĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐĞdžŝƐƟŶŐĂŵŽŶŐƚŚĞ ǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ ĐŽŵƉŽŶĞŶƚƐ ampŽƌ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞǁŚŝůĞ ďƵŝůĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƉĂƉĞƌ ŚŽƵƐĞƐ ƚŚĞLJƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŽĨ ƉĞŽƉůĞĚŝĚŶŽƚŚĂǀĞƚŽůŝǀĞŶĞĂƌďLJƚŽƚŚĞŚŽƵƐĞƐŶŽƌĚŝĚĂůůƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞŚĂǀĞƚŽďĞůŽĐĂůƉƌŽƉĞƌƚLJŽǁŶĞƌƐŽƌƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůďƵLJĞƌƐ^ŽŵĞƉĞŽƉůĞŵŝŐŚƚďĞĐůŽƐĞƌĞůĂƟǀĞƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞďƌŽĂĚĞƌĂƌĞĂǁŚŽůŝŬĞƚŽƐƚĂLJŐĞŶĞƌĂůůLJŝŶĨŽƌŵĞĚĂďŽƵƚĐŚĂŶŐĞƐĂīĞĐƟŶŐƚŚĞĨĂŵŝůLJKƚŚĞƌƐ
ǁĞƌĞĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJůĞĂĚĞƌƐǁŚŽůŝǀĞĚŝŶĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ŶĞŝŐŚďŽƌŚŽŽĚ ŶĞĂƌďLJ LJĞƚ ŚĂĚǀĞƐƚĞĚŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚƐŝŶƚŚĞƐĞƉƌŽƉĞƌƟĞƐdŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĂůƐŽ ĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌĞĚ ƚŚĞ ƉŽǁĞƌ
ŽĨ ĂŶ ŽďũĞĐƚ ĚƵƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ĮƌƐƚ ĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬƐĞƐƐŝŽŶ tŚĞŶ ƚŚĞLJ ƐĞƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŵŽĐŬƵƉŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƚĂďůĞ ƐĞǀĞƌĂůŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐďĞĐĂŵĞ ĞŶŐĂŐĞĚ ŝŵŵĞĚŝĂƚĞůLJ ĞĨŽƌĞƚŚĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶďĞŐĂŶƚŚĞŝƌĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐĂůƌĞĂĚLJ ďĞŐĂŶ ƚŽ ĂƐŬ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĐƵƌŝŽƵƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ƉŽƐƐŝďůĞ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶWƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞƐ ĐĂŶ ďƌŝŶŐ ĂŶ ŝŵĂŐŝŶĂƟǀĞ ŽƌĞŵŽƟŽŶĂůƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƚŽĂĐŽŶǀĞƌƐĂƟŽŶƚŚĂƚŵŝŐŚƚŽƚŚĞƌǁŝƐĞŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶ ůŝŵŝƚĞĚ ƚŽĂĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƵĂůŽƌƌĂƟŽŶĂůůĞǀĞůgtĂƐƚůLJ ƚŚĞŵĂũŽƌůĞƐƐŽŶǁĂƐƚŚĂƚŝĨƚŚĞ
ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞĐŽƵůĚĞdžŝƐƚƚŽĚĂLJ ƚŚĞŶŝƚŝƐŶŽƚĨĂƌ ĞŶŽƵŐŚŽƵƚ ŝŶƟŵĞ ŶŽƚŚĞƌǁŽƌĚƐƚŚĞƚĞĂŵƐŚŽƵůĚƐƚŽƉƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂŶĚďƵŝůĚƚŚĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶŶŽǁ
141
13
The act of building also helped us understand more about our target users and how they might react to different parts
While sketching is helpful
building our idea into a 3D
object gave us more insights
into our own innovation idea
Just having a physical mockup in
hand generated intense curiosity
among colleaguesmdashnormally we
have to fight for their attention
during the usual slideshows
142
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ĞƉĞŶĚŝŶŐŽŶLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ
ĂŶĚĐƵůƚƵƌĞLJŽƵŵĂLJĐĂůůĂƉĂƉĞƌŵŽĐŬƵƉĂĨĞĂƐŝďŝůŝƚLJƐƚƵĚLJ ŵĂƋƵĞƩĞƐŵĂůůƐĐĂůĞŵŽĚĞůŽƌĚŽůůŚŽƵƐĞŚŽŽƐĞƚŚĞƚĞƌŵƚŚĂƚŵĂŬĞƐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚƐĞŶƐĞƚŽLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĂŶĚƵƐĞƌƐ
ͻ ^ĞĞŚŽǁĂŶŽƚŚĞƌĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞĞdžƉůĂŝŶƐLJŽƵƌƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞƚŽƐŽŵĞŽŶĞǁŚŝĐŚǁŝůůŚĞůƉLJŽƵƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚǁŚĂƚƐŽŵĞŽŶĞĞůƐĞƐĞĞƐĂƐŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƚŽƚŚĞŝĚĞĂ
ͻ dŚĞďĞƐƚŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůƐĂƌĞĐŚĞĂƉĂŶĚƌĞĂĚŝůLJĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞƐƵĐŚĂƐĚŝƐĐĂƌĚĞĚƉĂƉĞƌĞŐƌĞĐLJĐůĞĚƐŚĞĞƚƐͿƵŶƵƐĞĚĐĂƌĚďŽĂƌĚĞŐĞŵƉƚLJƉƌŝŶƚĞƌĐĂƌƚƌŝĚŐĞďŽdžĞƐͿŽĸĐĞƐƵƉƉůŝĞƐĞŐƉĂƉĞƌĐůŝƉƐͿŬŝƚĐŚĞŶƐƵƉƉůŝĞƐĞŐƉůĂƐƟĐĐƵƉƐͿĨĂƐƚĞŶĞƌƐĞŐƐƚƌŝŶŐƐƚĂƉůĞƐͿĂŶĚǁŚĂƚĞǀĞƌĞůƐĞŝƐŚĂŶĚLJ
ͻ ĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞůLJŬĞĞƉLJŽƵƌĚĞƐŝŐŶƌŽƵŐŚƐŽƚŚĂƚŝƚůŽŽŬƐŝŶĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĂŶĚƚŚƵƐŝŶǀŝƚĞƐĐŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƟǀĞĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬĨƌŽŵŽƚŚĞƌƐ
ͻ KŌĞŶƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉŝŶŐŝƐŵŽƐƚƵƐĞĨƵůǁŚĞŶĂƐĞƋƵĞŶĐĞŽĨŵŽĐŬƵƉƐĐĂŶďĞĚŽŶĞŝŶƌĂƉŝĚƐƵĐĐĞƐƐŝŽŶĂĐŚŵŽĐŬƵƉďƵŝůĚƐŽŶƚŚĞůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐĂŶĚĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌŝĞƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐŝƚĞƌĂƟŽŶ
ͻ ĨLJŽƵƚĂŬĞƚŚĞŵŽĐŬƵƉƚŽĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐƌĞŵĞŵďĞƌƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJƚĞƐƚƚŚĞƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞLJŽƵĚŽŶƚƚĞƐƚƚŚĞŵŶŽƚŚĞƌǁŽƌĚƐĨŽĐƵƐŽŶŚĞĂƌŝŶŐŚŽǁLJŽƵƌƐĂŵƉůĞƵƐĞƌƐƌĞĂĐƚƚŽƚŚĞŝĚĞĂĂŶĚǁŚLJ
ZampgtdKEHow might you embed
paper mockups into your
early market research or
ƵƐĞƌƚĞƐƟŶŐƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ
143
Additional examples
^ĞǀĞƌĂů ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ƉŽůŝĐĞŵĞŶ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞĚĂŶ ŝĚĞĂ ƚŚĂƚ ůĞƚ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ƐĞŶĚƌĞĂůͲƟŵĞ ƚĞdžƚƐ ĂŶĚ ĂůĞƌƚƐ ƚŽ ŚĞůƉ ƚŚĞ ůŽĐĂůƉŽůŝĐĞ ĚĞƉƵƚLJ ƌĞƐƉŽŶĚ ŵŽƌĞ ĞĸĐŝĞŶƚůLJ ƚŽŶĞŝŐŚďŽƌŚŽŽĚĐƌŝŵĞ
ĂƐĞĚ ŽŶ ƌĞĐĞŶƚ ĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ ŝŶ ŝŶĞdžƉĞŶƐŝǀĞďƵŝůĚŝŶŐ ŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůƐ ƉƌĞĨĂď ĚǁĞůůŝŶŐƐ ĂŶĚĞĐŽͲĨƌŝĞŶĚůLJ ĚĞƐŝŐŶƐ Ă ltŽƌĞĂŶ ƚĞĂŵ ďƵŝůƚĂ ƌŽƵŐŚ ŵŽĚĞů ŽĨ ƵƌďĂŶ ŵŽĚƵůĂƌ ŚŽƵƐŝŶŐƵŶŝƚƐ
PAPER MOCKUPS | method worksheet
Feel free to use this piece of paper in your mockup
145
A variation of the Paper Mockup Dark Horse prototypes are three-dimensional physical prototypes that are built to explore a previous PU[P[PVUVYYLQLJ[LKPKLH
When to use itͻ dŽŐŝǀĞLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵƉĞƌŵŝƐƐŝŽŶƚŽ
ƚŚŝŶŬďŝŐŐĞƌĂŶĚŽƵƚŽĨƚŚĞďŽdžĂŐĂŝŶ
ͻ dŽĞdžƉůŽƌĞĂĨĂƐƚĂůƚĞƌŶĂƚĞǀŝĞǁƚŽĂŶĞdžŝƐƟŶŐŝĚĞĂ
Why itrsquos helpfulŶƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚŽĨŚŽƌƐĞƌĂĐŝŶŐĂĚĂƌŬŚŽƌƐĞŝƐĂďĞƚ ƚŚĂƚŚĂƐ ƚŚĞ ůĞĂƐƚ ůŝŬĞůLJŽĚĚƐ ƚŽǁŝŶďƵƚǁŚŝĐŚƵůƟŵĂƚĞůLJŵĂLJŚĂǀĞ ƚŚĞŐƌĞĂƚĞƐƚĐŚĂŶĐĞŽĨƌĞǁĂƌĚgtŝŬĞǁŝƐĞLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŵĂLJŚĂǀĞƌĞũĞĐƚĞĚĐĞƌƚĂŝŶŝĚĞĂƐƚŽŽĞĂƌůLJďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞƐĞŝĚĞĂƐǁĞƌĞƉĞƌĐĞŝǀĞĚĂƐ ďĞŝŶŐ ƚŽŽ ƌŝƐŬLJ ƌĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŵƉŽƐƐŝďůĞƵŶĂĐĐĞƉƚĂďůĞ Žƌ ƐƵĐŚ Ăƚ ƚŚĞ ƟŵĞ ŽĨĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂƟŽŶWĞŽƉůĞŽŌĞŶĚŝƐŵŝƐƐƚŚĞŝƌĞĂƌůŝĞƌ ŝŶƚƵŝƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ŐƵƚ ƐĞŶƐĞ ĂŶĚ ŝŶƉƌĂĐƟĐĞ ƚŚĞ ĞĂƌůLJ ŝĚĞĂƐ ƌĂƚŚĞƌ ƚŚĂŶ
DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE
ƚŚĞƐƵďƐĞƋƵĞŶƚŝƚĞƌĂƟŽŶƐŽŌĞŶďĞĐŽŵĞŵŽƌĞƉƌĞĚŝĐƟǀĞŽĨ ƚŚĞĮŶĂůƐƵĐĐĞƐƐŽĨĂƉƌŽũĞĐƚĚĞůŝǀĞƌĂďůĞdŚĞĂƌŬŽƌƐĞŚĞůƉƐ LJŽƵƵŶĐŽǀĞƌ ĂŶ
ĞĂƌůŝĞƌƚƌƵƚŚŽƌŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƚŚĂƚLJŽƵŵŝŐŚƚŚĂǀĞůŽƐƚŝŶƚŚĞŽǀĞƌĂůůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉƌŽĐĞƐƐŌĞƌďĞŝŶŐ ŝŵŵĞƌƐĞĚ ŝŶ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐLJŽƵŚĂǀĞŐĂŝŶĞĚĂŐƌĞĂƚĞƌƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐĂďŽƵƚLJŽƵƌŐŝǀĞŶƉƌŽďůĞŵŽƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJƐƉĂĐĞLJƌĞďƵŝůĚŝŶŐĂŶĞĂƌůŝĞƌƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞŝŶƵŶĚĞƌĂŵŝŶƵƚĞLJŽƵĨŽĐƵƐŝŶŽŶǁŚĂƚƌĞĂůůLJ ŵĂƩĞƌƐͶƚŚĞ ĨƵŶĚĂŵĞŶƚĂů ĐŽƌĞŽĨ LJŽƵƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƚŚĂƚ ďĞĐŽŵĞƐ LJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐΗĂƌŬŽƌƐĞΗ
What you getzŽƵŐĂŝŶĂƚĂŶŐŝďůĞƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶŽĨLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝĚĞĂ ĚŝƐƟůůĞĚ ƚŽ ŝƚƐ ĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůǀĂůƵĞ
146
Instructionsϭ ZĞďƵŝůĚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐƉĂƉĞƌŵŽĐŬƵƉ
ŝŶϮŵŝŶƵƚĞƐŽƌůĞƐƐϮ džƉůĂŝŶƚŚĞĞƐƐĞŶĐĞŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂƚŽ
ƐŽŵĞŽŶĞƵƐŝŶŐƚŚĞŵŽĐŬƵƉ
Drawing insights amp implicationsƵŝůĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ĂƌŬ ŽƌƐĞ ŐĂǀĞ ƚŚĞĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞZΘƚĞĂŵĂĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƚĮƌƐƚƚŚĞLJ ƉƌŽƚĞƐƚĞĚ ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ƚŚĞLJ ĂůƌĞĂĚLJŬŶĞǁǁŚĂƚǁĂƐ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŝĚĞĂtŚLJ ďƵŝůĚ ŝƚ ĂŐĂŝŶ tŚĂƚ ǁŽƵůĚ ƚŚĞLJůĞĂƌŶĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚůLJdŚĞŶ ƐŽŵĞŽŶĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƐƚĂƌƚĞĚ
ƚŽ ĮĚĚůĞǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞŵŽĐŬƵƉŵŽǀŝŶŐ ƚŚĞƐƚƌŝŶŐ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŚŽƵƐĞƐ ƚŚĞŵƐĞůǀĞƐ dŚŝƐ ŽŶĞ ĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶ
ǁĂƐƐLJŵďŽůŝĐďĞĐĂƵƐĞŵŽǀŝŶŐƚŚĞƐƚƌŝŶŐĐŚĂŶŐĞĚ ƚŚĞ ƐŽĐŝĂů ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞƚŽƚŚĞŽďũĞĐƚƐdŚĞ ŚŽƵƐĞƐ ĂŶĚ ƌĞŶƚĂů ƉƌŽƉĞƌƚŝĞƐ
ŚĂĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŽǁŶ ƐŽĐŝĂů ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞŝŶĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐŝĚĞŶƚƐ ĂŶĚƚŚŝƐ ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ ĐŽƵůĚ ƚŚĞŶ ďĞƚƚĞƌƐƵƉƉŽƌƚ ƚŚĞ ĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶͲŵĂŬŝŶŐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞŝŶƚŚĞŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŶŽƚŚĞƌǁŽƌĚƐƚŚĞ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ŽĨ ŚŽƵƐĞƐ ĐŽƵůĚ ŵŝƌƌŽƌƚŚĞ ƐĂŵĞ ƐĞŶƐŝƚŝǀŝƚŝĞƐ ŐƌƵĚŐĞƐ ĂŶĚĞŵŽƚŝŽŶĂůƋƵĂůŝƚŝĞƐ ƚŚĂƚĂĨĨĞĐƚŚƵŵĂŶĨƌŝĞŶĚƐŚŝƉƐdŚŝƐƐŝŵƉůŝĮĐĂƟŽŶĐŚĂŶŐĞĚƚŚĞĞŶƟƌĞ
ŶĂƚƵƌĞŽĨƚŚĞŐƌŽƵƉƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶŚĞůƉŝŶŐƚŚĞŵ ƌĞĂůŝnjĞ ǁŚĂƚ ǁĂƐ ǀĂůƵĂďůĞͶĂŶĚƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůůLJĂƵŶŝƋƵĞǀĂůƵĞƉƌŽƉŽƐŝƟŽŶͶƚŽƚŚĞŝƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚĂƚďĞĐĂŵĞƚŚĞĞƐƐĞŶƟĂů
ĞůĞŵĞŶƚŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂͻ gtŽŽŬŝŶŐďĂĐŬĂƚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ Ɛ
ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐŚĂƐƚŚĞĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůĞůĞŵĞŶƚŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂďĞĞŶƚŚĞƌĞĂůůĂůŽŶŐŽǁĚŝĚLJŽƵŵŝƐƐŝƚ
ͻ tŝƚŚƚŚĞĂƌŬŽƌƐĞƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞŝŶŚĂŶĚŚŽǁǁŽƵůĚLJŽƵƋƵŝĐŬůLJƌĞͲƚĞůůƚŚĞĞŶƟƌĞĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐLJŽƵĚŝĚďĞŐŝŶŶŝŶŐǁŝƚŚƚŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ
ͻ EŽǁƚŚĂƚLJŽƵŬŶŽǁƚŚĞĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůĞůĞŵĞŶƚƚŚĂƚŶĞĞĚƐƚŽďĞĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚĞĚǁŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞŶĞdžƚǀĞƌƐŝŽŶŽĨLJŽƵƌƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞ
147
13
We made one dramatic yet important change by moving the string from the people to the houses we emphasized the social network (and transfer of knowledge) among the houses
148
DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE | method worksheet
Tear your previous Paper Mockup in half
Discuss
ϭϰϵ
Change Paths are data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations
When to use itͻ dŽĂĚĚƌĞƐƐƚŚĞŐĂƉďĞƚǁĞĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶ
ĂŶĚĂĐƟŽŶͻ dŽŽƵƚůŝŶĞƐŽŵĞƚĂŶŐŝďůĞƐƚĞƉƐƚŽ
ĂĐŚŝĞǀĞLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂ
Why itrsquos helpfulKŶĞƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJŝƐƐŝŵƉůLJƚŽǁĂŝƚĨŽƌƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƚŽĂƌƌŝǀĞzŽƵƐĞĞǁŚĂƚLJŽƵƌĐŽŵƉĞƟƚŽƌƐĚŽĂŶĚLJŽƵƌĞĂĐƚĂĐĐŽƌĚŝŶŐůLJŶŽƚŚĞƌ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ŝƐ ƚŽ ĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞ ƚŚĞ
ĨƵƚƵƌĞLJŽƵǁĂŶƚĂŶĚĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞŚŽǁďĞƐƚƚŽŵĂŬĞƚŚĂƚǀŝĞǁŽĨƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞŚĂƉƉĞŶtŚŝůĞ ƚŚŝƐ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂŚĞĂĚ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐƵůƚƐ ĂƌĞ ŽŌĞŶ ŵŽƌĞƌĞǁĂƌĚŝŶŐĂŶĚƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůůLJƐĂƟƐĨLJŝŶŐdŚĞ ŚĂŶŐĞ WĂƚŚƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƉƵƚƐ ƚŚĞ
ĐŽŶƚƌŽůŝŶLJŽƵƌŚĂŶĚƐƚŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵĚĞĮŶĞƚŚĞďŝŐƐƚĞƉƐŽƌĐŚŽŝĐĞƐLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŵƵƐƚƚĂŬĞ ƚŽŐĞƚLJŽƵ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞǀŝƐŝŽŶLJŽƵǁĂŶƚLJŵĂƌŬŝŶŐƚŚĞƚŽƉϮͲϯƐƚĞƉƐŽŶƚŚĞƉĂƚŚLJŽƵƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĐƌŝƟĐĂůƌĂůůLJƉŽŝŶƚƐĨŽƌƚŚĞďƌŽĂĚĞƌƚĞĂŵ
Change Paths
ůůŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƐĂƌĞĚƌĂǁŶƐLJŵďŽůŝĐĂůůLJĂƐĂǁŝŐŐůLJůŝŶĞďĞĐĂƵƐĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĚŽĞƐŶŽƚ ŽĐĐƵƌ ĂƐ Ă ůŝŶĞĂƌ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ǀĞŶ ŝĨŝŶǀĞƐƚŽƌƐůŝŬĞƚŽƐĞĞĂƐƚƌĂŝŐŚƚƟŵĞůŝŶĞŝŶƌĞĂůŝƚLJƚŚĞƉĂƚŚƚŽĞdžĞĐƵƟŽŶŝƐĂƐĞƌŝĞƐŽĨƐŵĂƌƚĂŶĚůƵĐŬLJĐŚŽŝĐĞƐŝĚĞĂůůLJůŝŶŬĞĚďLJĂĐŽŵƉĞůůŝŶŐǀŝƐŝŽŶ
What you getdŚĞ ŚĂŶŐĞ WĂƚŚƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ŐŝǀĞƐ LJŽƵĂ ƐŝŵƉůĞ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐ ŽƵƚůŝŶĞ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞŶďĞĐŽŵĞƐ ƚŚĞ ďĂĐŬďŽŶĞ ĨŽƌ Ă ĚĞƚĂŝůĞĚƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ƌŽĂĚŵĂƉĂŶĚŽƌƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƉůĂŶ ƚŚĞůƉƐ LJŽƵ ůĂLJ ŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ĐƌŝƟĐĂůŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐƚŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ǁŝůů ŶĞĞĚ ƚŽ ĂĐŚŝĞǀĞ ŽŶ ĂƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉĂƚŚƐŽLJŽƵƐŝŵƉůLJŬŶŽǁǁŚĂƚƚŽĚŽƚŽŵŽƌƌŽǁzŽƵĂůƐŽƐŚŽǁƚŚĂƚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĚŽĞƐŶŽƚ
ŚĂƉƉĞŶĂƐĂĚŝƌĞĐƚƉĂƚŚďƵƚŝŶƐƚĞĂĚĂƐĂƐĞƌŝĞƐŽĨƐŵĂƌƚĐŚŽŝĐĞƐůŝŶŬĞĚƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌŝŶĂĐŽŚĞƐŝǀĞǀŝƐŝŽŶ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton150
ŽƵƚƐŽƵƌĐŝŶŐŵĂŶLJdĂŶĚŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶƐŶ ĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚ ŝƌďƵƐ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶ
ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞĚ ŚƵďͲƚŽͲŚƵď ƚƌĂǀĞů dŚĞLJǁĂŶƚĞĚĂůƵdžƵƌLJĂŝƌůŝŶĞƌ ŬŶŽǁŶĂƐƚŚĞ ^ƵƉĞƌƵŵďŽ ƚŚĂƚ ĐŽƵůĚ ĐĂƌƌLJ ŵŽƌĞ ƉĞŽƉůĞďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ůĂƌŐĞ ĂŝƌƉŽƌƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ ǁŽƵůĚ ŚĂǀĞŝŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐůLJĨĞǁĞƌ ůĂŶĚŝŶŐƐůŽƚƐLJƌĞůLJŝŶŐŽŶŬŶŽǁŶƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐƚŚĞLJǁŽƵůĚĐƌĞĂƚĞĂŶĞŶƟƌĞůLJŶĞǁƚƌĂǀĞůĐůĂƐƐƚŚĂƚĞŶƚĂŝůĞĚĂŶĞǁŵĂƌŬĞƚĂŶĚďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŵŽĚĞůdŚĞŝƌĮƌƐƚƐƚĞƉǁĂƐ ƚŽ ƌĞǀŝĞǁ ĨĞĂƐŝďůĞĂŝƌƉŽƌƚƐ gtĂƚĞƌƐƚĞƉƐǁŽƵůĚďĞƚŽƉĂƌƚŶĞƌǁŝƚŚĂŝƌƉŽƌƚƐĂŶĚĞdžƉĂŶĚŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶƐŐůŽďĂůůLJ
Letrsquos look at an exampleŽĞŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ŝƌďƵƐ ĂƌĞ ƚǁŽ ƌŝǀĂůĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ďƵŝůĚ ĐŽŵŵĞƌĐŝĂůĂŝƌƉůĂŶĞƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌĂĞƌŽƐƉĂĐĞƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐtŚĞŶ ƚŚĞƐĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ ŝŶǀĞƐƚ ŝŶ ŶĞǁƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐ ƚŚĞLJŵƵƐƚ ďĞƚ ďŝŐ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƐŵĂůů ZΘ ƚĞĂŵ ƌĞŇĞĐƚĞĚ ŽŶĞĂĐŚ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ Ɛ ŽƌŝŐŝŶĂů ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞϳϴϳ ĂŶĚ ϯϴϬ ĂŝƌƉůĂŶĞƐ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ ŚĞůƉŽĨ ĂŶĂůLJƐƚ ƌĞƉŽƌƚƐ ŶĞǁƐ ĂƌƟĐůĞƐ ĂŶĚŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĞdžƉĞƌƚƐŶ ƚŚĞ ůĂƚĞ ϭϵϵϬƐ ďŽƚŚ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ
ĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶĞĚ Ă ǁŽƌůĚ ŽĨ ŝŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐ ĂŝƌƚƌĂǀĞů dŚĞŝƌ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĚƌĞǁ ĨƌŽŵ ƐŝŵŝůĂƌ
ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƐƚƵĚŝĞƐ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ƐƵƌǀĞLJƐ ĂŶĚŵŽƌĞ ŚŽǁĞǀĞƌ ƚŚĞLJ ĞĂĐŚ ƚŽŽŬ Ă ǀĂƐƚůLJĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƉĂƚŚĨŽƌǁĂƌĚŽĞŝŶŐƐ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶ ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞĚ ƉŽŝŶƚͲ
ƚŽͲƉŽŝŶƚ ƚƌĂǀĞů dŚĞLJ ǁĂŶƚĞĚĂ ĐŽŵĨŽƌƚĂďůĞ ĂŝƌƉůĂŶĞ ƚƌƵůLJ ĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚĨŽƌ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƚŚĞLJĐĂůůĞĚ ƚŚĞ ƌĞĂŵůŝŶĞƌ ƚŚĂƚ ƌĞůŝĞĚ ŽŶŶĞǁ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ ĂŶ ĞdžŝƐƟŶŐŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ŝŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ dŚĞŝƌ ĮƌƐƚ ƐƚĞƉǁĂƐ ƚŽ ƌĞǀŝĞǁ ƚŚĞ ƐƚĂƚĞ ŽĨ ĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐ gtĂƚĞƌ ďŝŐ ĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐŝŶĐůƵĚĞĚ ŚŝƌŝŶŐ Ă ƉƐLJĐŚŽůŽŐŝƐƚ ǁŚŽĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞĚ ďĂƐŝĐ ŚƵŵĂŶ ŶĞĞĚƐ ĂŶĚ
ƐƐĞƐƐĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐ
ĞƐŝŐŶĨŽƌƉĂƐƐĞŶŐĞƌĐŽŵĨŽƌƚ
KƵƚƐŽƵƌĐĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ
ŽĞŝŶŐϳϴϳƌĞĂŵůŝŶĞƌ
WĂƌƚŶĞƌǁŝƚŚĂŝƌƉŽƌƚƐ
ƐƐĞƐƐĨĞĂƐŝďůĞĂŝƌƉŽƌƚƐ
ŝƌďƵƐϯϴϬ^ƵƉĞƌũƵŵďŽ
ĞǀĞůŽƉŐůŽďĂůƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐ
151
Instructionsϭ ƌĂǁĂĐŝƌĐůĞŽŶƚŚĞĨĂƌƌŝŐŚƚ
ǁŚŝĐŚƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞǀŝƐŝŽŶŽƌŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJŝƐĐƵƐƐǁŚĂƚĂƉůĂƵƐŝďůĞĂŶĚĚĞƐŝƌĞĚĨƵƚƵƌĞůŽŽŬƐůŝŬĞǁŝƚŚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵtƌŝƚĞƚŚĞƚĂŐůŝŶĞŽƌƐƵŵŵĂƌLJŝŶƐŝĚĞƚŚĞĐŝƌĐůĞzŽƵĐĂŶĂůƐŽƉůĂĐĞĂĚĂƚĞŽƌƟŵĞƉĞƌŝŽĚďLJƚŚĞĐŝƌĐůĞ
Ϯ ƌĂǁĂƐƋƵŝŐŐůLJƟŵĞůŝŶĞŽƵƚĨƌŽŵƚŚĞůĞŌƐŝĚĞŽĨƚŚĞĐŝƌĐůĞtŚĂƚĐĂŶLJŽƵĚŽƚŽŵŽƌƌŽǁƚŽŐĞƚƐƚĂƌƚĞĚDĂƌŬĂŶyĂƚƚŚĞĨĂƌůĞŌĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚĂŶĚǁƌŝƚĞLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐĂĐƟŽŶŚĞƌĞ
ϯ ŝƐĐƵƐƐǁŚĂƚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŚĂƐƚŽĚŽŶĞdžƚƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶŝĚĞŶƟĨLJŝŶŐƚŚĞƚŽƉƚǁŽĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐŽŶLJŽƵƌƉĂƚŚƚŽĂĐƟŽŶŶĂůůĐĂƐĞƐƚŚĞƐĞĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐƐŚŽƵůĚďĞ
ŝŶLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐĐŽŶƚƌŽůĂŶĚĂďŝůŝƚLJƚŽĂīĞĐƚDĂƌŬƚŚĞƐĞĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐǁŝƚŚĂŶyŽŶƚŚĞƟŵĞůŝŶĞĂŶĚƐƵŵŵĂƌŝnjĞƚŚĞŵŶĞĂƌďLJ
ϰ WůĂĐĞĂŶLJĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐŽƵƚƐŝĚĞLJŽƵƌĐŽŶƚƌŽůŽīƚŚĞƉĂƚŚŝĨƚŚĞLJŚĞůƉLJŽƵĐŽŶĮƌŵƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐƚŽǁĂƌĚLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶdŚŝƐŝƐĂŶŽƉƟŽŶĂůƐƚĞƉ
ї ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ gtŽŽŬŝŶŐĂƚƚŚĞĮƌƐƚĨĞǁƐƚĞƉƐ
LJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŶĞĞĚƐƚŽƚĂŬĞŝƐLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶďŝŐĞŶŽƵŐŚ
ͻ ŌĞƌƌĞǀŝĞǁŝŶŐĂůůŽĨLJŽƵƌĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐŚŽǁĨĂƌŝŶƚŽƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĚŽĞƐLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶůŽŽŬ
ͻ tŚĂƚǁŽƵůĚŚĞůƉLJŽƵĂĐĐĞůĞƌĂƚĞƚŚĞƉĂƚŚƚŽLJŽƵƌĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶĞĚĨƵƚƵƌĞ
ͻ ƐƚŚĞƌĞĂŶLJƌĞĂƐŽŶƚŚĂƚLJŽƵĐĂŶƚďƵŝůĚLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŽĚĂLJ
152
1 Boeing and Airbus take two different
views of the future one imagines the
ultimate point-to-point airplane for
customers and the other imagines a
luxury liner between major airport hubs
3 We mark the two big
decisions each company
must take to achieve their
respective visions with a X
further along on the
timeline
4 Boeing also pursued new technologies and materials for greater airplane efficiency which was largely out of their controlmdasha decision they could have placed off their path
2 We note the first step
each company can do on
their path to action at the
start of the timeline
153
Drawing insights amp implicationsdŚĞZΘƚĞĂŵƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚƚŚĂƚďŽƚŚŽĞŝŶŐĂŶĚ ŝƌďƵƐ ƉůĂŶŶĞĚ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƐŝŵƵůƚĂŶĞŽƵƐůLJŽƚŚŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚƚĞĂŵƐĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ƚƌĞŶĚƐ ƚŽĐŽŶƟŶƵĞŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞĚĂŝƌƉŽƌƚŚƵďƚƌĂĸĐ ĚĞĐůŝŶŝŶŐ ĂǀĞƌĂŐĞ ĂŝƌƉůĂŶĞ ƐŝnjĞƐĂŶĚ ŵŽƌĞ ƉŽŝŶƚͲƚŽͲƉŽŝŶƚ ŇŝŐŚƚƐ ŽƚŚǀŝƐŝŽŶƐǁĞƌĞĐŽŵƉĞƟƟǀĞLJĞƚĐƌĞĂƚĞĚƚǁŽůĂƌŐĞĂŶĚĐŽŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƌLJŵĂƌŬĞƚƐƚǁĂƐĂŐŽŽĚƌĞŵŝŶĚĞƌƚŚĂƚƚŚĞƐĂŵĞĨƵƚƵƌĞĐĂŶƐƵƉƉŽƌƚŵƵůƟƉůĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐŶ ĂĚĚŝƟŽŶ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ
ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ĐĂŶ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŵĂŶLJ ĐĂƐĞƐ ƐŚŽƵůĚͿĞǀŽůǀĞ WĂƚŚƐ ĐŽƵůĚ ĐŚĂŶŐĞ ĂƐ ŵŽƌĞŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ ŝƐ ŐĂŝŶĞĚ ĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƐĨĞĂƐŝďŝůŝƚLJŽƌĂƐŵĂƌŬĞƚĐŽŶĚŝƟŽŶƐƐŚŝŌ
Ŷ ŽĞŝŶŐ Ɛ ĐĂƐĞ ŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ ĮƌƐƚĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶĞĚĂƐƉĞĞĚLJĂŝƌƉůĂŶĞ ƚŚĂƚĐŽƵůĚƚƌĂǀĞůǁŝƚŚŽƵƚŝŶƚĞƌŵĞĚŝĂƚĞƐƚŽƉƐŽĞŝŶŐŝŶŝƟĂůůLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚĂŶĞǁĐŽŶĐĞƉƚĐĂůůĞĚƚŚĞ ^ŽŶŝĐ ƌƵŝƐĞƌ ƚŚĂƚ ǁŽƵůĚ ŇLJ ŶĞĂƌůLJϮϬƉĞƌĐĞŶƚĨĂƐƚĞƌƚŚĂŶŵŽƐƚĐŽŵŵĞƌĐŝĂůũĞƚƐ hůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ ƚŚĞLJ ĂďĂŶĚŽŶĞĚ ƚŚĞŝĚĞĂĂŌĞƌ ƚŚĞϵϭϭ ƚĞƌƌŽƌŝƐƚĂƩĂĐŬƐĂŶĚĐŽŶĐĞƌŶƐ ŽĨ ƌŝƐŝŶŐ ũĞƚ ĨƵĞů ĐŽƐƚƐ DĂŶLJŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚŝƐ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ĞƐƉĞĐŝĂůůLJĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ĐĂďŝŶ ŝŶƚĞƌŝŽƌ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĞĚ ƚŚĞ ϳϴϳƉƌŽũĞĐƚŚĂƉƉĞŶŝŶŐŝŶƉĂƌĂůůĞůdŚĞ ϳϴϳ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ŽŶ ƉĂƐƐĞŶŐĞƌ
ĐŽŵĨŽƌƚŽĞŝŶŐ ƐƚǁŽďŝŐŐĞƐƚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐͶƚŽĚĞƐŝŐŶĨŽƌƚŚĞƵƐĞƌĂŶĚĂĚŽƉƚĂŵŽĚĞůŽĨ ŽƉĞŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶͶŵĂĚĞ ƚŚĞ ϳϴϳ ĂĚŝƐƌƵƉƟǀĞ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĂƚƚŚĞƟŵĞdŚĞƐĞĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐ ƐŚŽǁĞĚ ŽĞŝŶŐ ǁŚĂƚ ǁĂƐ
ĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞƚŚĞŝƌǀŝƐŝŽŶKĨ ĐŽƵƌƐĞ ŽƚŚĞƌ ĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐ ŵĂƩĞƌĞĚ
ƚŽŽ ampŽƌ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ŽĞŝŶŐ ǁŽƌŬĞĚ ƚŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞďĞƩĞƌĨƵĞůĞĐŽŶŽŵLJƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŶĞǁĨƵĞůͲĞĸĐŝĞŶƚ ƚǁŝŶ ĞŶŐŝŶĞƐ ůŝŐŚƚǁĞŝŐŚƚĐŽŵƉŽƐŝƚĞ ŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůƐ ĂŶĚ ŵŽƌĞ ĞůĞĐƚƌŝĐƉŽǁĞƌ ƐLJƐƚĞŵƐͶĂůů ŽĨǁŚŝĐŚ ŚĞůƉĞĚ ƐĞƚƚŚĞϳϴϳĂƉĂƌƚŝŶƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚŶŽƚŚĞƌ ůĞƐƐŽŶ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ZΘ ƚĞĂŵ
ǁĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ ďŽƚŚ ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ǁĞƌĞ ŵŽƌĞ ƚŚĂŶƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐdŚĞϳϴϳĂŶĚϯϴϬĐƌĞĂƚĞĚŶĞǁŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĞĐŽƐLJƐƚĞŵƐĂŶĚďŽƚŚǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚĂĐůĞĂƌƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐŽĨŵƵůƟƉůĞĐŽŵƉůĞdž ƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŵƉŽŶĞŶƚƐŽƚŚŽĞŝŶŐĂŶĚŝƌďƵƐŚĂĚƚŽŵĂŬĞĂŶĚƉƌŝŽƌŝƟnjĞ ĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJ ƚŚĞŶ ĐŽƵůĚŝŵƉĂĐƚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJ ƚŽ ĂĐŚŝĞǀĞƚŚĞŝƌĨƵƚƵƌĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ
154
We realized that the same
future can support multiple
even competing visions
Boeing actually started with a different vision that crystallized into the 787 Only in hindsight does the future look like a clear and straight path
Both companies achieved the future they wanted by doing things that they could affect directly
155
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ^ŝŵƉůLJŬŶŽǁŝŶŐǁŚĂƚƚŽĚŽ
ƚŽŵŽƌƌŽǁŚĞůƉƐďƌĞĂŬŝŶĞƌƟĂƐŬLJŽƵƌƐĞůĨ ǁŚĂƚĂŵŐŽŝŶŐƚŽĚŽŽŶDŽŶĚĂLJtŚŽĂŵŐŽŝŶŐƚŽĐĂůů
ͻ dĂůŬǁŝƚŚŽƚŚĞƌĞdžƉĞƌƚƐƚŽŚĞůƉLJŽƵǀĂůŝĚĂƚĞƚŚĞŵŽƐƚĐƌŝƟĐĂůƐƚĞƉƐƚŽƚĂŬĞŽŶLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉĂƚŚ
ͻ ŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂĚĚŝŶŐĚĂƚĞƐƚŽLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĂŶĚƉĂƚŚŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐƐŽLJŽƵĐĂŶƉůĂŶĂŚĞĂĚ
ͻ ĞĐůĞĂƌĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞƐĞƋƵĞŶĐĞĂŶĚƟŵŝŶŐŽĨĂůůLJŽƵƌƐƚĞƉƐZĞŵĞŵďĞƌŵŽƐƚƉĞŽƉůĞŵƵƐƚůĞĂƌŶƚŽǁĂůŬďĞĨŽƌĞƚŚĞLJƌƵŶƐŽĚŽŶƚĂƐƐƵŵĞƚŚĂƚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĐĂŶĞĂƐŝůLJƐŬŝƉĂƉƌŽĐĞƐƐƚLJƉŝĐĂůĨŽƌƚŚĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ
ͻ zŽƵĐĂŶŽǀĞƌůĂLJƚŚĞŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚŽŶƚŽƉŽĨLJŽƵƌƌŝŐŚƚĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐƚŽŚĞůƉLJŽƵƉƵƚLJŽƵƌĂĐƟŽŶƐŝŶĐŽŶƚĞdžƚŽĨŽƚŚĞƌĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĂŶĚŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĞǀĞŶƚƐ
ͻ dƌLJƚŽůŝŵŝƚLJŽƵƌƐĞůĨƚŽƚŚĞϮͲϯďŝŐŐĞƐƚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐŽŶLJŽƵƌŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƐŽLJŽƵƚƌƵůLJŬŶŽǁLJŽƵƌƚŽƉƉƌŝŽƌŝƟĞƐ
ͻ zŽƵĐĂŶĂůƐŽůŝŶŬŵƵůƟƉůĞŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ĂƐLJŽƵƌŐŽĂůƐďƵŝůĚŽŶĞĂĐŚŽƚŚĞƌ
ͻ ZĞŵĞŵďĞƌƚŚĂƚLJŽƵƌƉĂƚŚƚŽLJŽƵƌĨƵƚƵƌĞǀŝƐŝŽŶǁŽŶƚďĞĂƐƚƌĂŝŐŚƚůŝŶĞ^ŝŵŝůĂƌƚŽƐĂŝůŝŶŐĂƉĞƌƐŽŶůĞĂƌŶƐƚŽŵĂŶĞƵǀĞƌĂƐĂŝůďŽĂƚĨŽƌǁĂƌĚďLJƚĂĐŬŝŶŐďĂĐŬĂŶĚĨŽƌƚŚƌĞŐƵůĂƌůLJͶLJĞƚĂůǁĂLJƐŝŶƚŽƚŚĞǁŝŶĚ
ZampgtdKEtŚĂƚĂĐƟŽŶĐĂŶLJŽƵůŝƚĞƌĂůůLJtake tomorrow to set you on
this future path
156
Additional examples
ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŝŶ ^ŽƵƚŚ ĨƌŝĐĂ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ ƚŚƌĞĞ ƌĞůĂƚĞĚǀŝƐŝŽŶƐĞĂĐŚŵĂƌŬĞĚďLJĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐǁŚŝĐŚƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌǁŽƵůĚŚĞůƉĂĐŚŝĞǀĞĂďŝŐŐĞƌŐŽĂůŽĨƚƌĂŝŶĞĚƉƌŽĨĞƐƐŝŽŶĂůƐŝŶƚŚĞŝƌĮĞůĚ
ƵƌŽƉĞĂŶ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ƚĞĂŵ ĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶĞĚ Ă ǁŽƌůĚ ŽĨƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝnjĞĚ ĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌŵĞĚŝĐŝŶĞ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŚĂŶŐĞ WĂƚŚĨĞĂƚƵƌĞĚĂƐĞƌŝĞƐŽĨƐŝŵƉůĞƚĞƐƚƐ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
CHANGE PATHS | method worksheet
Dgt^dKEηϭ
KhZs^KE
Dgt^dKEηϮ^WampdKEdKz
158
WĞƚƌŝŽŵĞŚĞĂĚŽĨĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂƚƚŚĞampŝŶŶŝƐŚďƌŽĂĚĐĂƐƟŶŐĐŽŵƉĂŶLJzůĞƐŵŝůĞĚĂƐŚŝƐŐĂnjĞƐǁĞƉƚŽǀĞƌĂƐĞƚŽĨƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞƐŽŶ ƚŚĞ ůĂƌŐĞ ĚĞƐŬ ŝŶ ĨƌŽŶƚ ŽĨ ŚŝƐ ƚĞĂŵdŚĞ ĨƌƵŝƚƐ ŽĨ Ă LJĞĂƌ ƐǁŽƌŬ ƐĂƚ ƚŚĞƌĞŽŶƚŚĞ ƚĂďůĞ ƐŽ ƚĂŶŐŝďůĞ ƚŚĂƚ WĞƚƌŝ ŚŝŵƐĞůĨŚĂĚĚŝĸĐƵůƟĞƐďĞůŝĞǀŝŶŐŝƚǁŚĞŶƌĞĐĂůůŝŶŐƚŚĞĂŵďŝŐƵŽƵƐƉƌĞŵŝƐĞƐƚŚĞLJŚĂĚďĞŐƵŶǁŝƚŚŽǀĞƌĂLJĞĂƌĂŐŽ
Marketplace challengeszůĞŶĞĞĚĞĚƚŽĐŚĂŶŐĞŝŶƐLJŵƉŚŽŶLJǁŝƚŚƚŚĞ ŵĞŐĂƚƌĞŶĚƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ŵĞĚŝĂ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJƌŽĂĚĐĂƐƟŶŐ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ǁĂƐ ƌĂƉŝĚůLJďĞĐŽŵŝŶŐŽďƐŽůĞƚĞƚĞůĞǀŝƐŝŽŶŚĂĚůŽƐƚŝƚƐĐĞŶƚƌĂůƌŽůĞŝŶďƌŝŶŐŝŶŐƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌĨĂŵŝůŝĞƐĂŶĚ ĨƌŝĞŶĚƐ ĂŶĚ ŽŶͲĚĞŵĂŶĚ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐǁĞƌĞ ƌĞĚĞĮŶŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ĐůĂƐƐŝĐ ŵŽĚĞů ŽĨĐŽŶƚĞŶƚĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƟŽŶdŚĞƐĂŵĞǁĂƐƚƌƵĞĨŽƌƌĂĚŝŽdŽ ĂĚĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐ ƚŚĞ
ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐ ƌĞŐŝŵĞ ŽĨ ampŝŶŶŝƐŚ ƉƵďůŝĐ ŵĞĚŝĂƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ ǁĂƐ ƐŽŽŶ ƚŽ ďĞ ƌĞƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĚŝŶƚŽ Ă ĐŽŵƉƵůƐŽƌLJ ĚĞǀŝĐĞ ŽǁŶĞƌƐŚŝƉŝŶĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚ ƚĂdž ůů ƚŚĞƐĞ ƚƌĞŶĚƐ ĂŶĚ
ĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ ĐĂůůĞĚ ĨŽƌ ďĞƩĞƌ ĐƵƐƚŽŵŝnjĂƟŽŶŽĨ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ ƚŽ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƚ ǁŝƚŚ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůǀŝĞǁĞƌƐĂŶĚůŝƐƚĞŶĞƌƐŐŝǀŝŶŐƚŚĞŵďĞƩĞƌǀĂůƵĞĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌƟŵĞĂŶĚŵŽŶĞLJŶ ƚŚĞ ƐƉƌŝŶŐ ŽĨ ϮϬϭϮ zůĞ ŚĂĚ ďŽůĚ
ŽďũĞĐƟǀĞƐ dŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶĞĚƐĞǀĞƌĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞ ĐŚĂŶŐĞƐ ŝŶ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƚŽ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƚ ŝŶ Ă ŵŽƌĞĚŝƌĞĐƚ ŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟǀĞ ĂŶĚ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝnjĞĚŵĂŶŶĞƌ ǁŝƚŚ ŝƚƐ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ ĞLJŽŶĚŵĞƌĞ ďƌŽĂĚĐĂƐƟŶŐ zůĞ ǁŽƵůĚ ďĞĐŽŵĞĂ ŶĂƟŽŶĂů ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ŽĨ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐďĞƚǁĞĞŶĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJĂŶĚĐŽŶƚĞŶƚŽŵĞĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞĚzůĞƐǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŚĂƚĞǀĞƌLJĐŝƟnjĞŶŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ƐŚŽƵůĚ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůůLJ ŬŶŽǁĂƚůĞĂƐƚŽŶĞŽĨzůĞƐĞŵƉůŽLJĞĞƐĂŶĚƚĂŬĞĂĚǀĂŶƚĂŐĞ ŽĨ Śŝŵ Žƌ ŚĞƌ ĂƐ Ă ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŚĞůƉĚĞƐŬ ampĞĞĚďĂĐŬĂŶĚĚĂƚĂŐĂƚŚĞƌĞĚĨƌŽŵƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞǁŽƵůĚƚŚĞŶďĞƵƐĞĚƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂŶĚĐƵƐƚŽŵŝnjĞzůĞƐƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐĨŽƌ ďĞƩĞƌ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐ ĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶͲŵĂŬŝŶŐĂŶĚƐĞƌǀŝĐĞ ŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶŽƉĞŶŶĞƐƐĂŶĚĚŝƌĞĐƚ ĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬ ǁĞƌĞ Ăůů ŬĞLJƐ ƚŽ ƚŚĞƐƵĐĐĞƐƐŽĨzůĞƐŶĞǁǀŝƐŝŽŶ
CASE STUDY | How YLE defined a new foresight capability
Towards participatory renewaldŚĞĐŚĂŶŐĞƐŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌLJƚŽŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶǁĞƌĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJͲǁŝĚĞƌĞƋƵŝƌŝŶŐƚŚĞĐŽŽƌĚŝŶĂƟŽŶĂŶĚĂůŝŐŶŵĞŶƚŽĨƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐůLJĨƌĂŐŵĞŶƚĞĚ ĞīŽƌƚƐ ŝŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂŶĚĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂĐƌŽƐƐŶƵŵĞƌŽƵƐĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚƐ ƵŶŝƚƐ ĂŶĚ ůĞǀĞůƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJdŚĞŽďũĞĐƟǀĞǁĂƐ ƚŽ ĐƌĞĂƚĞĂƵŶŝĮĞĚ ƌĞƉĞĂƚĂďůĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ĨŽƌ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŚĂƌŐĞĚ ǁŝƚŚ ĚĞƐŝŐŶŝŶŐ zůĞ Ɛ ŶĞǁ
ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ ŽŵĞ ŬŶĞǁ ƚŚĂƚ ƌĞͲĂůŝŐŶŝŶŐŽůĚ ŵŽĚĞůƐ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽĐĞĚƵƌĞƐ ǁŽƵůĚ ďĞŝŶƐƵĸĐŝĞŶƚzůĞŶĞĞĚĞĚƚŽĂĚŽƉƚĞŶƟƌĞůLJŶĞǁ ĐĂƉĂďŝůŝƟĞƐ ƚŽ ŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƚ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞŝƌĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ ĂŶĚ ƚƌĂŶƐĨŽƌŵ ƚŚĞ ĐĂƉƚƵƌĞĚƐŝŐŶĂůƐŝŶƚŽǀŝĂďůĞƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐŽŵĞƌĞĚƵĐĞĚƚŚĞĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƚŽĂƐŝŶŐůĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶŽǁĐĂŶǁĞĐƌĞĂƚĞĂŶĞŶŐĂŐŝŶŐŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶͲǁŝĚĞ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ƚŚĂƚ ŝŶƐƉŝƌĞƐĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞƚŽũŽŝŶŝŶ
ϭϱϵ
Heralds of changeWĞƚƌŝ Ɛ ĮƌƐƚ ŵŽǀĞ ǁĂƐ ƚŽ ĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚ ĂĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĚĞĚŝĐĂƚĞĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĚĞƐŝŐŶ ĂŶĚŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ Ă ŶĞǁ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŝƐ ƚĞĂŵ ĐŽŶƐŝƐƚĞĚ ŽĨ ĨŽƵƌŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ǁŚŽ ǁĞƌĞ ŐŝǀĞŶ ƚŚĞŵĂŶĚĂƚĞ ĂŶĚ ƉŽǁĞƌ ƚŽ ĂĐĐĞƐƐ ƚŚĞĞŶƟƌĞ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ dŚĞŝƌ ĮƌƐƚ ƚĂƐŬ ǁĂƐƚŽ ůĞĂƌŶ ƚŚĞ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚŝŶƚŚŝƐƉůĂLJŬdŚĞLJƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚĞĚ ŝŶ ĂŶ ŝŵŵĞƌƐŝǀĞ ƚƌĂŝŶŝŶŐǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉĂŶĚĂůƐŽƉƌĂĐƟĐĞĚĂƉƉůLJŝŶŐƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ŽŶ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŽǁŶ ƚŽ ŽƚŚĞƌ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞƐƵŶĚĞƌǁĂLJǁŝƚŚŝŶzůĞdŚĞŝƌ ƐĞĐŽŶĚ ƚĂƐŬ ǁĂƐ ƚŽ ĞŶŐĂŐĞ ĂŶĚ
ƚĞĂĐŚĂƐŵĂůůŐƌŽƵƉŽĨĞdžĞĐƵƟǀĞƐƌĞĐĞŶƚůLJĂƉƉŽŝŶƚĞĚĂƐƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞĚǀŝƐŽƌLJŽĂƌĚdŚŝƐ ŽĂƌĚ ǁŽƵůĚ ĐŽŶƐŝƐƚ ŽĨ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐĂŶĚ ĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌƐ ǁŝƚŚ ƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶƚ ŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞĂƚ zůĞ KŶĐĞ ƚŚĞ ŶĞǁ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐǁĂƐĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞĚǀŝƐŽƌLJŽĂƌĚǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ ƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďůĞ ĨŽƌ ƉƌŽŵŽƟŶŐ ƚŚĞĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĂŶĚ ŶĞǁ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐǁŝƚŚŝŶ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚƐǁŚŝĐŚ ǁĂƐ ŬĞLJ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ƐĐĂůĂďŝůŝƚLJ ŽĨ ƚŚĞŶĞǁƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ
A map of current practicestŚĂƚŝƐƉĂƐƚŝƐƉƌŽůŽŐƵĞ Ͷt^ŚĂŬĞƐƉĞĂƌĞŽŵĞ ƐƚĞĂŵƐƚĂƌƚĞĚĮƌƐƚŽŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ
ĚĞƐŝŐŶ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚ ĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚŝŶŐ ĂĐůĞĂƌĂŶĚĐŽŚĞƌĞŶƚƉŝĐƚƵƌĞŽĨƚŚĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚŵƵĚĚLJƐƚĂƚĞŽĨƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐƉƌĞǀĂůĞŶƚĂĐƌŽƐƐzůĞdŚĞLJŬŶĞǁƚŚĂƚƉĂƐƚĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐƉůĂĐĞĚƚŚĞ ĞůĞŵĞŶƚƐ ŽĨ ǁŚĂƚ ǁŽƵůĚ ĨŽůůŽǁ ƐŽƚŚĞLJŶĞĞĚĞĚ ƚŽŬŶŽǁŚŽǁĞĂĐŚĚŝǀŝƐŝŽŶĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJ ĚĞĮŶĞĚ ĂŶĚ ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĞĚĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚdŽŐĂƚŚĞƌƚŚŝƐŝŶƉƵƚƚŚĞƚĞĂŵĚĞĐŝĚĞĚ
ƚŽŚŽƐƚĂƐĞƌŝĞƐŽĨŵŝŶŝͲǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐĞĂĐŚƌŽƵŐŚůLJϰϱŵŝŶƵƚĞƐůŽŶŐĚƵƌŝŶŐůƵŶĐŚƟŵĞdŚĞLJ ĨĞůƚ ƚŚŝƐ ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ ǁŽƵůĚ ƌĞƐŽŶĂƚĞďĞƩĞƌǁŝƚŚĂŶĚŵŽƟǀĂƚĞƚŚĞŝƌĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐƚŚĂŶ ŵŽƌĞ ĞůĂďŽƌĂƚĞ ĂŶĚ ƐƚƌĞŶƵŽƵƐĂƌƌĂŶŐĞŵĞŶƚƐƐƵĐŚĂƐĨƵůůͲďůŽǁŶƌĞƚƌĞĂƚƐdŚĞŵŝŶŝͲǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐ ŽďũĞĐƟǀĞƐ ǁĞƌĞ ƚŽĂͿŵĂƉĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJƵƐĞĚĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ďͿ ĐŽůůĞĐƚ ŝŶŝƟĂů ŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƐ ŽŶ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ǁŽƌŬ ĂŶĚ ĐͿĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌŝnjĞ ŵƵůƟƉůĞ ĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚŵĞƚŚŽĚƐdǁŽ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵ
ŚŽƐƚĞĚ ĞĂĐŚ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ WĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐŝŶĐůƵĚĞĚĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐĂŶĚĐŽŶƐƟƚƵĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵĂůůĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚƐĂŶĚůĞǀĞůƐŽĨzůĞŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞ ĚǀŝƐŽƌLJ ŽĂƌĚƐ ĂŶ ĂĚǀĂŶĐĞ ĂƐƐŝŐŶŵĞŶƚ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐǁĞƌĞ ĂƐŬĞĚ ƚŽ ƉƌĞƉĂƌĞ Ă ďƌŝĞĨ ƐƵŵŵĂƌLJŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJ ƵƐĞĚŝŶ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ǁŽƌŬ ƵƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŵŝŶŝͲǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƐƵŵŵĂƌŝĞƐ ǁĞƌĞĚĞďƌŝĞĨĞĚ ĂŶĚ ƐŚĂƌĞĚ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ ƚŚĞ ŐƌŽƵƉĂƐĂĮƌƐƚĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞƵŝůĚŝŶŐŽŶŝƚƐŽƵƚƉƵƚƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂŶƚƐ ƚŚĞŶ ĂƉƉůŝĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƚŽ ƐLJŶƚŚĞƐŝnjĞ ĞdžŝƐƟŶŐ ĂŶĚĨƵƚƵƌĞĂƐƉĞĐƚƐŽĨƚŚĞĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ
A sense of shared ownershipdŚĞ ĚŝĸĐƵůƚLJ ůŝĞƐ ŶŽƚ ƐŽ ŵƵĐŚ ŝŶĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƐĂƐŝŶĞƐĐĂƉŝŶŐĨƌŽŵŽůĚŽŶĞƐ ͶDltĞLJŶĞƐtŚĞŶ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐ ƚŚĞ
ĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵŵĞƚ ƚǁŽ ŬĞLJ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐ ƚŚĂƚĂīĞĐƚĞĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĞīĞĐƟǀĞŶĞƐƐ ŝŶ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐĂŶĚ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůůLJ ĞŶĚĂŶŐĞƌĞĚ Ă ƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵůŽƵƚĐŽŵĞ KŶ Ă ƉƌĂĐƟĐĂů ůĞǀĞů ƚŚĞLJ ŚĂĚĚŝĸĐƵůƟĞƐŐĞƫŶŐŽƚŚĞƌƐŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚ
160
ampĞǁ ĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐ ŚĂĚ ƟŵĞ ƚŽ ƐƉĂƌĞĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĚĞƐŝŐŶĂƚĞĚ ĚĂLJ ũŽďƐ ĂŶĚ ĚŝĚŶŽƚ ĨƵůůLJ ĂƉƉƌĞĐŝĂƚĞ ƚŚĞ ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵǀĂůƵĞŝŶ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐ Ă ĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĐĂƉĂďŝůŝƚLJĨƚŚĞLJǁĞƌĞƵŶǁŝůůŝŶŐƚŽĞŶŐĂŐĞŝŶƚŚĞĞŶĚĞĂǀŽƌĂƚƚŚŝƐĞĂƌůLJƐƚĂŐĞƚŚĞƌĞǁĂƐůŝƩůĞŚŽƉĞĨŽƌƚŚĞŵƚŽƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĞīŽƌƚƐĨŽƌ ĂŶ ŽƉĞŶ ĂŶĚ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚŽƌLJ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚŵŽĚĞůĂƚůĂƚĞƌƐƚĂŐĞƐdŚĞ ƐĞĐŽŶĚ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ ǁĂƐ ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĂů
dŚĞƌĞǁĂƐůŝƩůĞĐŽͲĐƌĞĂƟŽŶŽĨŝĚĞĂƐƚĂĐŝƚŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ Žƌ ƐŚĂƌĞĚ ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞĚǀŝƐŽƌLJŽĂƌĚdŚĞƌĞǁĂƐĂƌŝƐŬƚŚĂƚƚŚĞŽĂƌĚĚŝĚŶŽƚƉĞƌĐĞŝǀĞĂŶLJŽǁŶĞƌƐŚŝƉŽĨƚŚĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚŝĚĞĂƐǁŚŝĐŚĐŽƵůĚůĞĂĚƚŽůŽǁĐŽŵŵŝƚŵĞŶƚŽǀĞƌƟŵĞtŝƚŚ ŚŝŶĚƐŝŐŚƚ ŽŵĞ ďĞůŝĞǀĞĚ ƚŚĞ
ĐŽŶǀĞŶƟŽŶĂů ƚĂƐŬĨŽƌĐĞ ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ĐĂƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƚǁŽ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐZĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďŝůŝƚLJĨŽƌĚƌŝǀŝŶŐƚŚĞĐŚĂŶŐĞŚĂĚďĞĞŶ ĚĞůĞŐĂƚĞĚ ƚŽ Ă ƐŵĂůů ĂƵƚŽŶŽŵŽƵƐŐƌŽƵƉ LJĞƚ ǁŚĂƚ ǁĂƐ ŶĞĞĚĞĚ ǁĂƐ ƚŚĞĂƵƚŚŽƌŝƚLJ ƚŚĂƚ ŽŶůLJ ƚŽƉ ŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĐŽŵŵĂŶĚƐ Ŷ ŽƚŚĞƌ ǁŽƌĚƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƌĞƚĞĂŵ ŚĂĚ ƚŚĞ ŵĂŶĚĂƚĞ ƚŽ ŝŶǀŽůǀĞ ƚŚĞ
ĞŶƟƌĞ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ďƵƚůĂĐŬĞĚ ƚŚĞ ůĞǀĞƌĂŐĞ ĂŶĚ ĂƵƚŚŽƌŝƚLJ ƚŽ ĚŽƐŽhůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ ĐŚĂŶŐĞǁŽƵůĚŚĂǀĞ ƚŽďĞĚƌŝǀĞŶ ďLJ ƚŚĞ ĞdžƉůŝĐŝƚ ĐŽŵŵŝƚŵĞŶƚ ŽĨĂŶĚ ĐůĞĂƌ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ ďLJ zůĞ Ɛ ƚŽƉŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĞƐƉŝƚĞ ƚŚĞƐĞ ŝŶŝƟĂů ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐ ƚŚĞ
ĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵǁĂƐ ĂďůĞ ƚŽƉƵƐŚ ĂŚĞĂĚǁŝƚŚŝƚƐƉůĂŶŶĞĚĂŐĞŶĚĂ
Using stories to communicate contextdŚĞĞƌƌŽƌŽĨƚŚĞƉĂƐƚŝƐƚŚĞǁŝƐĚŽŵŽĨƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞ ͶdƵƌŶĞƌŌĞƌ ƚŚĞ ŵŝŶŝͲǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƌĞ
ƚĞĂŵ ďĞŐĂŶ ƚŚĞ ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ŽĨ ĚĂƚĂ ĂŶĚŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ dŚĞLJ ƐŚĂƌĞĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƐƚŽƌLJƚĞůůŝŶŐĂƉŽǁĞƌĨƵůƚĞĐŚŶŝƋƵĞƚŚĂƚ ƉƵƚƐ ƐĞĞŵŝŶŐůLJ ƵŶƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ƉŝĞĐĞƐŽĨ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ ŝŶƚŽ Ă ůŽŐŝĐĂů ĂŶĚ ĐĂƵƐĂůĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ tŚŝůĞ Ă ƚĞĂŵ ŵĞŵďĞƌ ƚŽůĚ ĂƐƚŽƌLJ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ĐĂƉƚƵƌĞĚŶŽƚĞƐĂŶĚŽďƐĞƌǀĂƟŽŶƐŽŶĐŽůŽƌĞĚƐƟĐŬLJŶŽƚĞƐdŚĞƐĞƐƟĐŬLJŶŽƚĞƐǁĞƌĞƚŚĞŶŐƌŽƵƉĞĚ
ƚŚĞŵĂƟĐĂůůLJ ŽŵďŝŶŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ WƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶ
ƵƌǀĞƐŵĞƚŚŽĚǁŝƚŚƉƌŽĐĞƐƐŇŽǁĐŚĂƌƚƐƚŚĞĐŽƌĞƚĞĂŵƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĚƚŚĞƐƚŽƌLJƚŚĞŵĞƐĂŶĚƚƌĂĐŬĞĚƚŚĞŝƌĞǀŽůƵƟŽŶƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐĂŶĚ ŝŶƚĞƌĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐŝĞƐ ŽǀĞƌ ƟŵĞ dŚĞĂŝŵǁĂƐƚŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJŬĞLJŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐƌĞŐĂƌĚŝŶŐƚŚĞĐĂƵƐĞƐĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƐƚŚĂƚŚĂĚůĞĚƚŽƚŚĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐƚĂƚĞŽĨĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐĂƚzůĞŶƚŚĞƉĂƐƚ ƚŚĞƚĞĂŵƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚƚŚĂƚzůĞ
ŚĂĚĂůŵŽƐƚĞdžĐůƵƐŝǀĞůLJƌĞůŝĞĚŽŶĞdžƚĞƌŶĂůŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŶƐƵůƚĂŶƚƐ ƚŽ ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJĂŶĚ ĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚĞ ŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐ ĨŽƌ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐ ŶLJŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐ ŐĂŝŶĞĚ ŚĂĚ ďĞĞŶ ůŝŵŝƚĞĚ ƚŽ ĂǀĞƌLJĞdžĐůƵƐŝǀĞĐŝƌĐůĞŽĨ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐǁŝƚŚŝŶzůĞdŚŝƐŵŽĚĞůǁĂƐĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJĂƚŽĚĚƐǁŝƚŚƚŚĞŶĞǁƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJƚŚĂƚƌĞůŝĞĚŽŶĂŶŽƉĞŶƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚŽƌLJĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŽĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚdŚĞ ĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĚƌĞǁ ƚŚƌĞĞ ŵĂũŽƌ
ĐŽŶĐůƵƐŝŽŶƐĨƌŽŵƚŚŝƐŝŶƐŝŐŚƚdŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJŶĞĞĚĞĚ ƚŽ ĂͿ ůĞĂĚ ƚŚĞ ĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƟŽŶ ŽĨĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽĐŽŶƚƌŽůƚŚĞĐƌĞĂƟŽŶŽĨŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞĂĐƌŽƐƐƚŚĞďƌŽĂĚĞƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ďͿ ĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚ Ă ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬǁŝƚŚŝŶ ĂŶĚ ŽƵƚƐŝĚĞ zůĞ ĂŶĚ ĐͿĐƌĞĂƚĞ ĂŶ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƐLJƐƚĞŵ ĨŽƌ ŐĂƚŚĞƌŝŶŐ
161
ǁĞĂŬƐŝŐŶĂůƐĂŶĚŵĂƌŬĞƚĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬƚŚĂƚǁŽƵůĚ ůĞƐƐĞŶ ƚŚĞ ƌĞůŝĂŶĐĞ ŽŶ ŽƵƚƐŝĚĞĞdžƉĞƌƟƐĞŶ ƚĞƌŵƐ ŽĨ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉ ƚŚŝƐ ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚ
ǁŽƵůĚ ƐŚŝŌ ĂǁĂLJ ĨƌŽŵ ĐŽŶǀĞŶƟŽŶĂůůLJŚŝĞƌĂƌĐŚŝĐĂů ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐ ƚŽǁĂƌĚƐ ĂŶĞŵƉŚĂƐŝƐ ŽŶ ŚƵŵĂŶͲĐĞŶƚĞƌĞĚ ĐŽĂĐŚŝŶŐĂŶĚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐZĞĐĞŶƚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƐŝŶĐƌŽǁĚͲƐŽƵƌĐŝŶŐ
ĂŶĚ ĐůŽƵĚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐ ĂƐ ǁĞůů ĂƐ ƚŚĞĐŽƌĞƚĞĂŵ ƐĞīŽƌƚƐƚŽĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚĂƵŶŝĮĞĚĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ŵĞƚŚŽĚŽůŽŐLJ ǁĞƌĞ ĚĞĞŵĞĚŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ĞŶĂďůĞƌƐ ŝŶ ŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƟŶŐ ƚŚĞŶĞǁƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJŶ ĞīĞĐƚ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂĚ ŶŽǁ
ĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚĞĚ ĂŶ ŝŶͲĚĞƉƚŚ ƉŝĐƚƵƌĞ ŽĨ zůĞ ƐĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƐƚĂƚĞ ŝŶ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂŶĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ dŚĞLJ ŬŶĞǁ ǁŚĂƚ ǁŽƵůĚ ŶĞĞĚƚŽ ĐŚĂŶŐĞ dŽ ĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚ Ă ǁŝĚĞůLJ ƐŚĂƌĞĚƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐƚŚĞƌĞƐƵůƚƐǁĞƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚĂƚ Ă ůĂƌŐĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJͲǁŝĚĞ ƐĞŵŝŶĂƌ dŚĞĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵ ǁĂƐ ŶŽǁ ƉŽƐŝƟŽŶĞĚ ƚŽ ƚƵƌŶĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƉĂƐƚ ƚŽzůĞ Ɛ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĞĚĞƐŝŐŶŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ Ɛ ŶĞǁĂůŝŐŶĞĚ ĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚƚŽĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂŶĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
Profiles of the future audienceƐ Ă ŶĞdžƚ ƐƚĞƉ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƌĞůŝĞĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂů ƌĐƐ ĂŶĚ ampƵƚƵƌĞ hƐĞƌŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŽ ďƵŝůĚ ĚĞƚĂŝůĞĚ ƉƌŽĮůĞƐ ŽĨzůĞ ƐĨƵƚƵƌĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞĂŶĚĞŵƉůŽLJĞĞƐdŚĞĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂů ƌĐƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ĂŶĂůLJnjĞĚ ƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ ŝŶƚŽ ǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ ƐƵďͲƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶƐĂĐĐŽƌĚŝŶŐƚŽĂŐĞtŚĞŶƚŚĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůŵĂƉǁĂƐ ŽǀĞƌůĂŝĚǁŝƚŚ ĂŐĞͲƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ĚĂƚĂĨŽƌƚŚĞƵƐĞŽĨŵĞĚŝĂĂŶĚĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐŝƚǁĂƐĞǀŝĚĞŶƚƚŚĂƚƚŚĞƵƐĞŽĨŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟǀĞĚŝŐŝƚĂůŵĞĚŝĂďŽƚŚĂƚŚŽŵĞĂŶĚǁŽƌŬŚĂĚďĞĐŽŵĞ ĨĂŝƌůLJǁŝĚĞƐƉƌĞĂĚŝŶ ampŝŶůĂŶĚ dŚĞ ĮŶĚŝŶŐ ǀĂůŝĚĂƚĞĚ ƚŚĞŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJ ƚŽ ŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞ ŵŽƌĞ ĚŝŐŝƚĂůƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐŝŶĂŶĞǁzůĞĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞĚ ďLJ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐƵůƚƐ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ
ŵŽƌĞ ĚĞĞƉůLJ ŝŶǀĞƐƟŐĂƚĞĚ ĂŶ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƚĂƌŐĞƚ ŐƌŽƵƉ ƵƐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞ hƐĞƌŵĞƚŚŽĚ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŶŐ Ă ƵƐĞƌ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂ ĨŽƌϮϬϮϳ ďĂƐĞĚ ŽŶ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐ ƐĂ ƐŶĂƉƐŚŽƚϭϱLJĞĂƌƐ ŝŶƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂ ŽīĞƌĞĚ Ă ŐŽŽĚ ƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ ƉŽŝŶƚĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƚŚĂƚĐŽƵůĚďĞƵƉĚĂƚĞĚŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ
LJ ƌĞǀŝĞǁŝŶŐ ĚŽŵŝŶĂŶƚ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶĂůďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌƐĂŶĚĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ƚƌĞŶĚƐ ŝŶŵĞĚŝĂƵƐĂŐĞ ĂŵŽŶŐ ŽƚŚĞƌ ĨĂĐƚŽƌƐ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵĨĞůƚ ƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂŽĨzůĞ ƐĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞǁŽƵůĚďĞŚŝŐŚůLJƌĞĐĞƉƟǀĞƚŽƚŚĞŝƌŽǀĞƌĂůůŵŝƐƐŝŽŶƚŽĚĞƐŝŐŶĂƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚŽƌLJĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ Ŷ ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ ƚŚĞ ŐƌŽǁŝŶŐǁŝůůŝŶŐŶĞƐƐ ŽĨ LJŽƵŶŐĞƌ ampŝŶŶƐ ƚŽ ŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƚǁŝƚŚ ǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ ŵĞĚŝĂ ĐŚĂŶŶĞůƐ ŽīĞƌĞĚ ĂǁĂLJ ĨŽƌzůĞ ƚŽĂƩƌĂĐƚŵŽƌĞ ĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬŽŶŝƚƐ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĂŶĚŵŽƌĞ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚůLJ ƚŽ ĐĂƉƚƵƌĞ ĞŶƟƌĞůLJŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂƐ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚ ďLJ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞDŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ƚŚĞ ƉŽǁĞƌ ŽĨ ŵŽďŝůĞ ĚĞǀŝĐĞƐǁŽƵůĚ ĐŽŶƟŶƵĞ ƚŽ ƚƌĂŶƐĨŽƌŵ ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚĚĞůŝǀĞƌLJ
The importance of real-world evidenceīĞĐƟǀĞ ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐ ŐŽŽĚ ĚĂƚĂĂŶĚ ĐŽůůĞĐƟŶŐ ŐŽŽĚ ĚĂƚĂ ŝƐ ŽŌĞŶ ĂƟŵĞͲĐŽŶƐƵŵŝŶŐ ƚĂƐŬ tŽƌŬŝŶŐ ĂƌŽƵŶĚƐƚƌŝŶŐĞŶƚĚĞĂĚůŝŶĞƐƚŚĞĐŽƌĞƚĞĂŵĨĂĐĞĚŵĂŶLJ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚƐĐŽƉĞ ĂŶĚ ƐĐĂůĞ ŽĨ ĚĂƚĂ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞLJǁĞƌĞĐŽŶĐĞƌŶĞĚƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJŵŝŐŚƚŽǀĞƌůLJƌĞůLJŽŶ
162
ƚŚĞŝƌŽǁŶƉƌĞͲĞdžŝƐƟŶŐĂƐƐƵŵƉƟŽŶƐĂďŽƵƚzůĞ ƐĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞƐĂƐŽůƵƟŽŶƚŚĞLJƚƵƌŶĞĚƚŽĞdžŝƐƟŶŐ ŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁĚĂƚĂ ƚŚĂƚŚĂĚďĞĞŶĐŽůůĞĐƚĞĚĞĂƌůŝĞƌĨŽƌŽƚŚĞƌƉƵƌƉŽƐĞƐĂƚzůĞdŚŝƐĚĂƚĂĐŽŶƚĂŝŶĞĚĚĞƚĂŝůĞĚŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƚĂƌŐĞƚ ƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶ ĂůůŽǁŝŶŐƚŚĞŵ ƚŽ ĐŽŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚ ŝƚ ƋƵŝĐŬůLJ ǁŝƚŚƐĞǀĞƌĂůƐŚŽƌƚŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐƚŚĂƚĮůůĞĚŝŶƚŚĞƌĞŵĂŝŶŝŶŐĚĂƚĂŐĂƉƐƵĞ ƚŽ ƟŐŚƚ ƐĐŚĞĚƵůĞƐ ƚŚĞLJ ĂůƐŽ
ŚĂĚ ŚĂĚ ƚŽ ĐŚŽŽƐĞ ǁŚĞƚŚĞƌ ƚŽ ƉƌŽĮůĞƚŚĞŝƌ ĞdžƚĞƌŶĂů ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ Žƌ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐ ^ŝŶĐĞ ƚŚĞLJ ĨĞůƚ ƚŚĞLJ ŚĂĚ ĂďĞƩĞƌƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐĂƚzůĞƚŚĞƚĞĂŵĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŽĨŽĐƵƐĮƌƐƚŽŶƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ
The Four Rooms conceptŽŶĮĚĞŶƚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĮŶĚŝŶŐƐ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵƉƌŽĐĞĞĚĞĚƚŽƚŚĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶƉŚĂƐĞŽĨƚŚĞŝƌƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐƉƌŽĐĞƐƐƌĂǁŝŶŐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞŝƌĞĂƌůLJĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ĂďŽƵƚ zůĞ Ɛ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐƚŚĞLJ ĞdžƉůŽƌĞĚ ƐƵŝƚĂďůĞ ĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĂͿĞdžŚŝďŝƚĞĚ ŐƌĞĂƚ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů ĨŽƌ ƐĐĂůĂďŝůŝƚLJ ďͿ ǁĂƐ ŇĞdžŝďůĞ ĞŶŽƵŐŚ ƚŽ ďĞ ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞĚĂŶĚĂĚĂƉƚĞĚŽŶĂ ĐŽŶƟŶƵŽƵƐďĂƐŝƐ ĂŶĚ
ĐͿĐŽƵůĚďĞĨĂĐŝůŝƚĂƚĞĚĂŶĚĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚĞĚƚŚƌŽƵŐŚĚŝŐŝƚĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐdŚĞLJƐŽŽŶĐŽŶǀĞƌŐĞĚŽŶĂĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƚŚĂƚ
ŚĂĚŽŶůLJďĞĞŶƉŝůŽƚĞĚŝŶzůĞ ƐƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚ KŶĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŵĞŵďĞƌ ŚĂĚďĞĞŶ ŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƉŝůŽƚ ĂŶĚ ďƌŽƵŐŚƚƚŚĞ ŝĚĞĂ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŐƌŽƵƉltŶŽǁŶ ŝŶƐŝĚĞzůĞĂƐ ƚŚĞ ampŽƵƌ ZŽŽŵƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŶĐĞƉƚ ǁĂƐƌŽƵŐŚĂŶĚůĂĐŬĞĚĂĐůĞĂƌĂŶĚǁĞůůͲĚĞĮŶĞĚƵƐĞƌ ƚ ǁĂƐ ĨƵƌƚŚĞƌ ƵŶĐůĞĂƌ ŚŽǁ ƚŽŵĂŬĞ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽƉŽƐĞĚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟǀĞZĞŐĂƌĚůĞƐƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŶĐĞƉƚŵĞƚ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƐŝŶŝƟĂů ĐƌŝƚĞƌŝĂ ĂŶĚ ŽīĞƌĞĚ ĂŵƉůĞ ƌŽŽŵĨŽƌ ĐƵƐƚŽŵŝnjĂƟŽŶ dŚĞ ĚĞĐŝĚŝŶŐ ĨĂĐƚŽƌǁĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ ampŽƵƌ ZŽŽŵƐ ǁĂƐ ďƵŝůƚ ĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞ ĞdžŝƐƟŶŐ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐ ĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶͲŵĂŬŝŶŐŝŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ŝŶǀŽůǀŝŶŐzůĞ ƐƚŽƉŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚdŚĞƚĞĂŵĚĞĐŝĚĞĚŝƚǁĂƐŵŽƌĞ ƐĞŶƐŝďůĞ ƚŽ ĚĞƐŝŐŶ ƚŚĞ ŶĞǁĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ zůĞ Ɛ ĞdžŝƐƟŶŐĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶͲŵĂŬŝŶŐ ŝŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ ƚŚĂŶ ƚŽƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶďŽƚŚƐ ƚŚĞ ŶĂŵĞ ŝŵƉůŝĞƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŶĐĞƉƚ ŝƐ
Ă ĨŽƵƌͲƉŚĂƐĞĚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ĐŽŶǀĞƌƚƐǁĞĂŬ ƐŝŐŶĂůƐ ŽƵƚƐŝĚĞ zůĞ ŝŶƚŽ ƚĂŶŐŝďůĞƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶƐŽĨĨƵƚƵƌĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐZŽŽŵ
ϭ ŝƐĂĚĂƚĂĐŽůůĞĐƟŽŶĂŶĚƐƚŽƌĂŐĞƉŚĂƐĞdŽĚĂƚĞƚŚĞƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚŚĂĚŵĂŶƵĂůůLJĐŽůůĞĐƚĞĚƐĂŵƉůĞĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬĨƌŽŵƵƐĞƌƐ ƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐŶZŽŽŵϮ ƚŚĞŐĂƚŚĞƌĞĚĚĂƚĂ ŝƐĮůƚĞƌĞĚƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĚ ĂŶĚ ĂŶĂůLJnjĞĚ ƚŽ ŝĚĞŶƟĨLJŝƐƐƵĞƐƚŚĂƚĐŽƵůĚŝŵƉĂĐƚƚŚĞĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚ ƐǁŽƌŬ ĂŶĚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĞīŽƌƚƐ ZŽŽŵ ϯĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ ĐŽŶĐƌĞƚĞ ŝŵƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ ďĂƐĞĚŽŶ ƚŚĞ ŝƐƐƵĞƐ ZŽŽŵ ϰ ŝƐ Ă ƐŚŽǁƌŽŽŵŝŶ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶ ĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐ ƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐ ŝŶ ƚĂŶŐŝďůĞĨŽƌŵ ƚŽ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ŝŶƐŝĚĞƌƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ŵŝŐŚƚŝŶĐůƵĚĞ ǀŝĚĞŽƐ ƉŽƐƚĞƌƐ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞƐ ĂŶĚƐƚŽƌŝĞƐ
Building the prototypedŚĞ ĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĂŐƌĞĞĚ ƚŽ ĚĞƐŝŐŶ ƚŚĞŶĞǁ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJͲǁŝĚĞ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞampŽƵƌZŽŽŵƐƉƌĞŵŝƐĞŶƐƚĞĂĚŽĨ ŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƟŶŐ ŝƚ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ŝƐŽůĂƚĞĚĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚͲƐƉĞĐŝĮĐ ƚĞĂŵƐ ŝƚ ǁĂƐ ĐůĞĂƌƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ŽǀĞƌĂůů ŽďũĞĐƟǀĞ ƚŽ ĐƌĞĂƚĞ ĂŚŽůŝƐƟĐ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚŽƌLJ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĐĂůůĞĚ ĨŽƌ ŵƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJ ĐƌŽƐƐͲĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚĂůƚĞĂŵƐ
163
dŚĞƚĞĂŵǁĂƐǀĞƌLJĐŽŶƐĐŝŽƵƐĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶĐĞŽĨZŽŽŵϭƚŽƚŚĞĞŶƟƌĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ŝƚ ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŝŶƚĞƌĨĂĐĞďĞƚǁĞĞŶ zůĞ ĂŶĚ ŝƚƐ ŬĞLJ ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞŶƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ ƚŚĞLJĨĞůƚŝƚǁĂƐŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƚŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůƐƟŵƵůŝ ĨŽƌ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞƐ ƚŽ ƌĞĂĐƚ ƚŽ ƚ ǁĂƐĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŚĂƚŵŝĐƌŽͲďůŽŐƐƐƵĐŚĂƐdǁŝƩĞƌ ĂŶĚƐŽĐŝĂůŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐƐƵĐŚĂƐgtŝŶŬĞĚŶĂŶĚampĂĐĞŬ ǁŽƵůĚ ŵŽƟǀĂƚĞ ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐƚŽ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ŽƉŝŶŝŽŶƐ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĂŶĚ ĐƌŝƟĐŝƐŵƌĞĂƟŶŐ ƐƵĐŚ ƐƟŵƵůŝ ĂŶĚ ƉŽƐƟŶŐ ƚŚĞŵƚŚƌŽƵŐŚǀĂƌŝŽƵƐĐŚĂŶŶĞůƐǁĂƐƚŽďĞĂƉĂƌƚŽĨĞǀĞƌLJĞŵƉůŽLJĞĞ ƐũŽďĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶĂƚzůĞZŽŽŵϮ ĂŶĚϯǁĞƌĞ ƚŚĞŶĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ƚŽ
ďĞ ƚŚĞ ƚĞƌƌŝƚŽƌLJ ĂŶĚ ƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďŝůŝƚLJ ŽĨƚŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞ ĚǀŝƐŽƌLJ ŽĂƌĚ ĂŶĚ ƐĞǀĞƌĂůĂƉƉŽŝŶƚĞĚ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŽĂĐŚĞƐ ǁŽƵůĚĐŽŽƌĚŝŶĂƚĞ ĂŶĚ ŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞ ĚĂƚĂ ŐĂƚŚĞƌĞĚĂĐƌŽƐƐ zůĞ dŚĞƐĞ ŽĂĐŚĞƐ ǁŽƵůĚĂŶĂůLJnjĞĂŶĚŝŶƚĞƌƉƌĞƚƚŚĞŝŶƉƵƚĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞŽĨzůĞĂŶĚĚĞƐŝŐŶĂƉƉƌŽƉƌŝĂƚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĞƐ ĂŶĚ ĂĐƟŽŶƐ dŚĞLJǁŽƵůĚ ĂůƐŽ ĚŝƐƐĞŵŝŶĂƚĞ ƚŚĞƐĞ ŶĞǁůLJĨŽƌŵĞĚ ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ƚŽ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ĂŶĚ ĞdžƚĞƌŶĂůƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐ ǀŝĂ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ƉƵďůŝĐ
ďůŽŐƐƚŽŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬŽŶŝĚĞĂƐĂŶĚǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƵŶĚĞƌĐŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶZŽŽŵϰĂƐ ƚŚĞ^ŚŽǁƌŽŽŵƉůĂLJĞĚ ƚŚĞ
ŵŽƐƚ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ƉĂƌƚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ Ɛ ĮŶĂůĚĞƐŝŐŶEŽƚŽŶůLJǁŽƵůĚŝƚďĞĂƉŚLJƐŝĐĂůƐƉĂĐĞŝŶƐŝĚĞ zůĞ ǁŚĞƌĞ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐĐŽƵůĚ ŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƚ ǁŝƚŚ ƚĂŶŐŝďůĞ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞƐĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶƐ ŝƚ ǁŽƵůĚ ďĞŵĂĚĞ ƉƵďůŝĐ ĂŶĚ ďƌŽĂĚůLJ ĂĐĐĞƐƐŝďůĞ ĂƐ ĂǀŝƌƚƵĂůǀĞƌƐŝŽŶŽŶƚŚĞǁĞďdŚĞ^ŚŽǁƌŽŽŵǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ŬĞLJ ĞůĞŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟǀĞ ŝŶƚĞƌĨĂĐĞ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ zůĞ ĂŶĚĂůů ŝƚƐ ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐ dŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞ ĚǀŝƐŽƌLJŽĂƌĚǁĂƐƚŽƉƵďůŝĐůLJƚĂŬĞŽǁŶĞƌƐŚŝƉĂŶĚƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďŝůŝƚLJ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ^ŚŽǁƌŽŽŵ ĂŶĚ ŝƚƐĐŽŶƚĞŶƚƐ ŚƵŵĂŶŝnjŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ǀŝƌƚƵĂů ĐŽŶƚĞŶƚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞŝƌŶĂŵĞƐĂŶĚĨĂĐĞƐdŚĞĐŽƌĞ ƚĞĂŵŵŽĚĞůĞĚ ƚŚĞĞdžƚĞŶĚĞĚ
ampŽƵƌZŽŽŵƐĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƵƐŝŶŐƚŚĞƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉŝŶŐŵĞƚŚŽĚŽůŽŐLJ ĂŶĚ ƚŽLJ ďƵŝůĚŝŶŐ ďƌŝĐŬƐĨƌŽŵgtĞŐŽ^ĞƌŝŽƵƐWůĂLJƐĞƌŝŽƵƐƉůĂLJĐŽŵͿĂĐŚƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌĮƌƐƚďƵŝůƚĂƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƚŚĞŶ ǁĂƐ ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚĂŶĚ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐĞĚ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĞŶƟƌĞ ƚĞĂŵdŚŝƐĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚŚĞůƉĞĚ ƚŽ ŝŶĨƵƐĞ ƚŚĞ ũŽŝŶƚǀŝƐŝŽŶ ǁŝƚŚ ĚŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ĂŶĚ ƚŽ ŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞ
ůŽŽƐĞ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂů ŝĚĞĂƐ ŝŶƚŽ Ă ĐŽŚĞƌĞŶƚĮŶĂůƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞǁŚŝĐŚǁĂƐďƵŝůƚĂƐĂůĂƐƚĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞ ďLJ ĐŽŵďŝŶŝŶŐ ŬĞLJ ĞůĞŵĞŶƚƐ ŽĨĞĂĐŚŵĞŵďĞƌ ƐŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůŵŽĚĞů
FROM PROTOTYPE TO VISION TO ACTIONŽŵĞ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ǁĞƌĞ ƚŚƌŝůůĞĚ dŚĞǀŝƌƚƵĂůŝnjĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ampŽƵƌ ZŽŽŵƐ ĐŽŶĐĞƉƚǁŽƵůĚ ŽƉĞŶ ƵƉ zůĞ Ɛ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĨŽƌ ƌĞĂůͲƟŵĞ ĐŽŵŵĞŶƚĂƌLJ ĂŶĚ ŵŽďŝůŝnjĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶĂĐƌŽƐƐĂůů ƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌŐƌŽƵƉƐĨƌŽŵ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ ĂŶĚ ŽƵƚƐŝĚĞ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƚǁŽƵůĚĞŶĂďůĞĂƵƐĞƌͲĚƌŝǀĞŶƉƌĂĐƟĐĞͲďĂƐĞĚŝƚĞƌĂƟǀĞĚĞƐŝŐŶƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĨŽƌzůĞ ƐƉŽƌƞŽůŝŽŽĨŵĞĚŝĂƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐĂŶĚĐŽŶƐƟƚƵƚĞƚŚĞĐŽƌĞŽĨƚŚĞĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƐĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĐĂƉĂďŝůŝƚLJtŝƚŚƚŚĞƚĂŶŐŝďůĞŝŶĐĂƌŶĂƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞƚĞĂŵ Ɛ
ǀŝƐŝŽŶŽŶƚŚĞƚĂďůĞŽŵĞƚƵƌŶĞĚƚŽĚŝƐĐƵƐƐƚŚĞ ŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŶĞǁ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ dŚĞĮƌƐƚ ŝƚĞŵŽŶ ƚŚĞ ĂŐĞŶĚĂǁĂƐƚŽ ĐƌĞĂƚĞ ƚŚĞ ampƵƚƵƌĞ ĚǀŝƐŽƌLJ ŽĂƌĚ ĂŶĚĐŽŵŵŝƚŝƚƐŵĞŵďĞƌƐƚŽƚŚĞĐĂƵƐĞgtĞƚ ƐĚŽƚŚŝƐ ŽŵĞĐŚĞĞƌĨƵůůLJƚŽůĚŚŝƐ
ƚĞĂŵtĞŚĂǀĞĂĨƵƚƵƌĞƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂŚĞĂĚŽĨƵƐ
164
ŝƌĞĨŽƌĂƫƚƵĚĞdƌĂŝŶĨŽƌƐŬŝůů mdash Bill TaylorĐŽͲĨŽƵŶĚĞƌŽĨampĂƐƚŽŵƉĂŶLJŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞ
WƌĂĐƟĐĂůůLJZĂĚŝĐĂůϮϬϭϭͿ
zŽƵƐĞĞƚŚŝŶŐƐĂŶĚLJŽƵƐĂLJtŚLJƵƚĚƌĞĂŵƚŚŝŶŐƐƚŚĂƚŶĞǀĞƌǁĞƌĞ
ĂŶĚƐĂLJtŚLJŶŽƚmdash George Bernard ShawƉůĂLJǁƌŝŐŚƚĂŶĚ
ĐŽͲĨŽƵŶĚĞƌŽĨƚŚĞgtŽŶĚŽŶ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƐĂĐŬƚŽDĞƚŚƵƐĞůĂŚϭϵϮϭͿ
165
TEAMChaptER 6
Shortcuts
Phase IV Team 166
Buddy Checks 168
HZLZ[K`+(97(QVIHK 177
Voice Stars 178
Case study DARPA PMs 187
Crowd Clovers 188
Case study DARPA lessons 197
166
You have the start of a great idea Now you want to know how do Itake this idea back to my group How can I take it inside my organization so the idea may AringVYPZOPU[VTLHUPUNMSHJ[PVUampOr what if I donrsquot have a team yet What should I do next
hůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝƐĚƌŝǀĞŶĂƐŵƵĐŚďLJƚŚĞŝĚĞĂƐĂƐďLJƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞdŚŝƐƉŚĂƐĞŝƐĨŽĐƵƐĞĚŽŶĮŶĚŝŶŐĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐƚŚĞƚĂůĞŶƚ ǁŚŽ ĐĂŶ ĞīĞĐƟǀĞůLJ ƐƵƉƉŽƌƚ ĂŶĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ ƌĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚĐĂƌƌLJŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ ƚ ŝƐ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƚŽ ĨŽĐƵƐ ŽŶ ĮŶĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƌŝŐŚƚ ƉĞŽƉůĞďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ƚŚĞLJ ǁŝůů ďĞ ƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďůĞ ĨŽƌŝŵĂŐŝŶŝŶŐ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŶŐ ĂŶĚ ďƵŝůĚŝŶŐƚŚĞďŝŐŝĚĞĂƐtĞ ƌĞĐŽŐŶŝnjĞ ƚŚĂƚ ŵĂŶLJ ůĂƌŐĞ
ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ ĂƐƐŝŐŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƚĞĂŵƐƚŽ ĮŶĚ ďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ^ŽŵĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚĂǀĞ ƚŚĞƉƌŝǀŝůĞŐĞ ƚŽƌĞĐƌƵŝƚŶĞǁƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌƐǁŚŝůĞŽƚŚĞƌŐƌŽƵƉ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐ ŝŶŚĞƌŝƚ Ă ŵŝdž ŽĨ ƚĂůĞŶƚǁŚŽ ŵĂLJ ŚĂǀĞ ǁŽƌŬĞĚ ƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐůLJ ŽŶŶĞǁZΘ ŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞƐĂƌĞƐƚƵĚĞŶƚ ŝŶƚĞƌŶƐŽƌ ŐƌĂĚƵĂƚĞƐ ǁŝƚŚ ĂŶ ĞŶƚŚƵƐŝĂƐŵ ĨŽƌĞŶƚƌĞƉƌĞŶĞƵƌƐŚŝƉŽƌĂƌĞƐŝŵƉůLJĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞĂƐ ƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ dŚĞƐĞ ǁŽƌŬĞƌƐ ŵĂLJ ŶŽƚŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌŝůLJďĞŶĂƚƵƌĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŽƌƐƐŽƚŚĞLJǁŝůů ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂů ĐŽĂĐŚŝŶŐ ƚŽ ůĞĂƌŶŶĞǁƐŬŝůůƐŝŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŽƌŵĂLJďĞďĞƩĞƌƐƵŝƚĞĚĨŽƌŽƚŚĞƌƌŽůĞƐ
Phase IV Team
dŚƌĞĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐǁŝůů ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ ďƵŝůĚ ĂŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƚĞĂŵͻ ƵĚĚLJŚĞĐŬƐͻ sK^ƚĂƌƐͻ ƌŽǁĚůŽǀĞƌƐ
167
PHASE IV TEAMdŚĞ ĨŽƵƌƚŚƉŚĂƐĞ ĨŽĐƵƐĞƐŽŶĮŶĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞƚĂůĞŶƚĂŶĚůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŶĞĞĚƐƚŽƚĂŬĞĂŶŝĚĞĂĨŽƌǁĂƌĚĂƐĂŶĞǁŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
ƵĚĚLJŚĞĐŬƐŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵĮŶĚŐŽŽĚƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŵĂƚĐŚĞƐĨŽƌŵŽƌĞƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĂŶĚƚĞĂŵŵĂƚĞƐїƉĂŐĞϭϲϴ
sK^ƚĂƌƐŝĚĞŶƟĮĞƐLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐĂƉƟƚƵĚĞĨŽƌƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉїƉĂŐĞϭϳϴ
ƌŽǁĚůŽǀĞƌƐŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵŵĂƉLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƚŽďƌŝŶŐLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂƚŽůŝĨĞїƉĂŐĞϭϴϴ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĚƌŝǀĞthis phaseͻ ŽǁĚŽǁĞĞŶŐĂŐĞƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚ
ŬŝŶĚŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞͻ tŚŽĂƌĞŐŽŽĚƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĂŶĚĐŽͲ
ĨŽƵŶĚĞƌƐŝŶĂŶĞǁŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶͻ tŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞĂďŝůŝƟĞƐŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌLJ
ƚŽůĞĂĚƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶͻ ŽǁĚŽǁĞŐƌŽǁĂŶĚůĞǀĞƌĂŐĞ
ŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ
168
Buddy Checks evaluates potential new co-founders partners and teammates by showing their reaction level to new ideas
When to use itͻ dŽĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞůLJƌĞĐƌƵŝƚůŝŬĞͲŵŝŶĚĞĚ
ŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŽƌƐͻ dŽƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƌĞĂůͲůŝĨĞƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶƐĨŽƌ
ƉƵďůŝĐƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐƚŽLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂ
Why itrsquos helpfulampŝŶĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƌŝŐŚƚ ƉĞƌƐŽŶ ƚŽ ǁŽƌŬ ǁŝƚŚŽŌĞŶ ƚĂŬĞƐ ŵƵůƟƉůĞ ĐLJĐůĞƐ ŽĨ ƚƌŝĂů ĂŶĚĞƌƌŽƌ džƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ ƐŚŽǁƐ ƵƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƟĞƐĂŶĚĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƐŬŝůůƐĞƚƐƐŽŝĨLJŽƵƌĞƐĞƌŝŽƵƐĂďŽƵƚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƚŚĞŶLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƚŽĮŶĚĂŶĚ ŬĞĞƉ ƚŚĞ ƉĞŽƉůĞǁŚŽǁŝůů ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵŵŽƐƚĂĐŚŝĞǀĞLJŽƵƌŐŽĂůƐKŌĞŶ ƐĞĂƐŽŶĞĚ ĞŶƚƌĞƉƌĞŶĞƵƌƐ ƌƵŶ
ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŽǁŶ ǀĞƌƐŝŽŶƐ ŽĨ Ă ƚĂůĞŶƚ
Buddy Checks
ĐŚĞĐŬůŝƐƚŝŶƚŚĞŝƌŚĞĂĚŝŶƚƵŝƟǀĞůLJŐĂƵŐŝŶŐǁŚŝĐŚƉĞŽƉůĞĂƌĞŐŽŽĚŵĂƚĐŚĞƐĨŽƌƚŚĞŵďĂƐĞĚ ŽŶ ǁŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJ ŚĂǀĞ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞĚďĞĨŽƌĞdŚĞ ƵĚĚLJ ŚĞĐŬƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ďŽƌƌŽǁƐ
ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ Ăƌƚ ŽĨ ƌŽůĞͲƉůĂLJŝŶŐ ĂƐ ĂǁĂLJ ƚŽƐƉĞĞĚ ƵƉ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŽĨ ƚƌŝĂů ĂŶĚ ĞƌƌŽƌ dŚŝƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ǁŝůů ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ƚĞƐƚ ĂƌĂŶŐĞ ŽĨ ƉŽƐƐŝďůĞ ƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚŽƐĞLJŽƵǁŽƵůĚ ůŝŬĞ ƚŽǁŽƌŬǁŝƚŚͶǁŚŝĐŚǁŝůůŚĞůƉƌĞǀĞĂůƚŚĞďĂƐĞƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƟĞƐ
What you getLJ ŵĞĂƐƵƌŝŶŐ ĐĂŶĚŝĚ ƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐ ƚŽŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂƐLJŽƵŐĂŝŶĂƋƵŝĐŬǁĂLJƚŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐƉĞŽƉůĞƚŽǁŽƌŬǁŝƚŚĂƚŵƵůƟƉůĞůĞǀĞůƐ
ϭϲϵ
Letrsquos look at an example ƚĞŵƉŽƌĂƌLJ ƚĞĂŵ ǁĂƐ ŚĂŶĚͲƉŝĐŬĞĚĨŽƌ Ă ŶĞǁ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞ Ăƚ Ă ůĂƌŐĞĐŽŶƐƵůƟŶŐ Įƌŵ ŌĞƌ ƚŚĞLJ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞĚƚŚĞĮƌƐƚƐĞƚŽĨƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐƚŚĞƚĞĂŵŶĞĞĚĞĚƚŽ ƌĞĐƌƵŝƚ Ă ĨƵůůͲƟŵĞ ƐƚĂī ƚŽ ĐŽŶƟŶƵĂůůLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂŶĚŵĂŝŶƚĂŝŶ ƚŚĞŶĞǁ ŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞĂƐĂƌĞŐƵůĂƌƉĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞŝƌĐůŝĞŶƚƉŽƌƞŽůŝŽdŚĞLJŶĞĞĚĞĚĂŐƌŽƵƉůĞĂĚĞƌĂŶĚƚŚƌĞĞ
ũƵŶŝŽƌ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ŶĞǁ ŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞdŚĞLJ ĮƌƐƚ ǁĂŶƚĞĚ ƚŽ ƌĞĐƌƵŝƚ ĐĂŶĚŝĚĂƚĞƐŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůůLJ WĂƌƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ ǁĂƐƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ Įƌŵ Ɛ ĐƵůƚƵƌĞ ǁĂƐ ŐĞŶĞƌĂůůLJĐŽŶƐĞƌǀĂƟǀĞ ĂŶĚ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ŽŶ ĞdžĞĐƵƟŽŶƐŽ ƚŚĞLJ ŬŶĞǁ ƚŚĞ ƚLJƉĞ ŽĨ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ƚŚĞLJǁĂŶƚĞĚǁŽƵůĚ ŶŽƚ ŶĞĐĞƐƐĂƌŝůLJ ďĞ ĨŽƵŶĚƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƚŚĞƵƐƵĂůĮƌŵĐŚĂŶŶĞůƐhƐŝŶŐƚŚĞƵĚĚLJŚĞĐŬƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŚĞLJ
ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞĚƚŚĞŬŝŶĚƐŽĨĐŽŶǀĞƌƐĂƟŽŶƐƚŚĞLJǁĂŶƚĞĚ ƚŽ ŚĂǀĞ ǁŝƚŚ ƚǁŽ ĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐ ŝŶƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌͶŽŶĞƉĞƌƐŽŶǁŚŽǁŽƵůĚŵĂŬĞĂŶ ŽƵƚƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐ ƚĞĂŵ ůĞĂĚĞƌ ǁŝůůŝŶŐ ƚŽĐŚĂŵƉŝŽŶĂďŽůĚŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂĂŶĚĂŶŽƚŚĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶ ǁŚŽ ǁŽƵůĚ ƐĞƚ Ă ƌŽůĞ ŵŽĚĞů ĂƚƚŚĞƚĞĂŵůĞǀĞůƚǁĂƐĐƌƵĐŝĂůƚŽƐƚĂƌƚĞĂĐŚŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƌŝŐŚƚ
1
2 3
4 5
6 7
gtĞǀĞůϭĂŋĞĚĚŽĞƐŶƚ
ŐĞƚŝĚĞĂ
gtĞǀĞůϮEŽĚƐƉŽůŝƚĞůLJ
ŐĞƚƐŝĚĞĂ
gtĞǀĞůϯŐƌĞĞƐǁŝƚŚLJŽƵŶŽĂĐƟŽŶ
gtĞǀĞůϰŐƌĞĞƐǁŝƚŚLJŽƵ
ǁĂŶƚƐƚŽƉůĂLJ
gtĞǀĞůϱdƌŝĞƐƚŽĞdžƚĞŶĚŝĚĞĂ
gtĞǀĞůϲĚĚƐƐŽŵĞƚŚŝŶŐŶĞǁƚŽƚŚĞŝĚĞĂ
gtĞǀĞůϳĚĚƐƐŽŵĞƚŚŝŶŐŶĞǁLJŽƵŚĂĚŶƚƚŚŽƵŐŚƚŽĨďĞĨŽƌĞ
170
Instructionsϭ ^ĞůĞĐƚƌŽůĞƐƚŽƉůĂLJƚůĞĂƐƚŽŶĞ
ƉĞƌƐŽŶƐŚŽƵůĚĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞƚŚĞŶĞǁŝĚĞĂĂŶĚĂŶŽƚŚĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶƐŚŽƵůĚŚĞĂƌƚŚĞŝĚĞĂŝĚĞĂůůLJĂƐƐŽŵĞŽŶĞǁŚŽŵLJŽƵǁŽƵůĚůŝŬĞƚŽũŽŝŶLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŽƌƐƵƉƉŽƌƚLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂ
Ϯ WƌĞƐĞŶƚƚŚĞŝĚĞĂĂŶĚĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐƵƐŝŶŐƚŚĞϳͲůĞǀĞůƐĐĂůĞũƵĚŐŝŶŐĮƌƐƚƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚ
ϯ dŚĞŶƚƌLJĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚǁĂLJƐƚŽƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƚŚĞŝĚĞĂƚŚĂƚƉƌŽŵƉƚƚŚĞƌĞĂĐƟŽŶLJŽƵŚŽƉĞƚŽŚĞĂƌ
ї ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ ŝĚƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞŝŶƚŚĞǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ
ƌŽůĞƐĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞĂŶLJƉƌĞƐƐƵƌĞŽƌƐƚƌĞƐƐĚƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞŵŽĐŬŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶƐĂŶĚŚŽǁĚŝĚƚŚĂƚƉƌĞƐƐƵƌĞĐŚĂŶŐĞƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐ
ͻ ƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞĐŽƵƌƐĞŽĨĂƌĞĂĐƟŽŶŚŽǁĚŝĚƚŚĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞƌĂĚũƵƐƚŚŝƐŚĞƌĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞŝĚĞĂĞŝƚŚĞƌǀĞƌďĂůůLJŽƌŶŽŶǀĞƌďĂůůLJ
ͻ tŚĂƚƚLJƉĞƐŽĨƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƚLJĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐǁĞƌĞĚĞŵŽŶƐƚƌĂƚĞĚĂƚĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƌĞĂĐƟŽŶůĞǀĞůƐ
171
1 I volunteer to present our rough
idea and Anna and Jesse pretend
to be two colleagues we know
whom we hope join our efforts
2 We agree our first colleague
sits between levels 4 and 5
because his first reaction is to
volunteer for the team and his
later reactions are to suggest
minor improvements to refine
our raw idea
3 After some more rehearsal
with Anna we find two
scenarios that we expect will
prompt the reaction we want
from our second colleague
who wersquod like to join as a
group leader
1
2 3
4 5
6 7
172
Drawing insights amp implicationsƵƌŝŶŐ ƌŽůĞƉůĂLJŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƋƵŝĐŬůLJĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ĮƌƐƚ ƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐ ĂƌĞŵŽƐƚƚĞůůŝŶŐ ĂďŽƵƚ ƉĞŽƉůĞ Ɛ ďĞůŝĞĨƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ĂŶŝĚĞĂ Ɛ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů dŚŝƐ ůĞĚ ƚŚĞŵ ƚŽ ƌĞĮŶĞƚŚĞŝƌƐƚŽƌLJ ƐĂŶŐůĞŶŽƚŚĞƌ ůĞƐƐŽŶ ĐĂŵĞ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ
ƌĞŚĞĂƌƐĂů dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJĚŝĚŶŽƚŚĂǀĞŵƵĐŚƟŵĞƚŽŵĂŬĞĂŐŽŽĚŝŵƉƌĞƐƐŝŽŶǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƉĞƌƐŽŶƚŚĞLJǁĂŶƚĞĚƚŽĂĐĐĞƉƚƚŚĞƌŽůĞŽĨŐƌŽƵƉůĞĂĚĞƌ ƚǁĂƐǁŽƌƚŚ ƉƌĂĐƟĐŝŶŐ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ĐŽŶǀĞƌƐĂƟŽŶŽƉĞŶŝŶŐƐ ŝŶ ŽƌĚĞƌ ƚŽ ƉƌŽǀŽŬĞ Ă ŚŝŐŚĞƌůĞǀĞů ƌĞĂĐƟŽŶ ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ŝƚ ǁĂƐ ŵƵĐŚŚĂƌĚĞƌ ƚŽ ƐƚĂƌƚ Ăƚ Ă ůŽǁ ůĞǀĞů ĂŶĚǁŽƌŬƵƉ ƚŚĞ ƌĞĂĐƟŽŶ ĐŚĂŝŶ ƚŚĂŶ ƚŽ ƐƚĂƌƚ ĂƚƚŚĞůĞǀĞůƚŚĞLJƉƌĞĨĞƌƌĞĚƐĂƌĞƐƵůƚƚŚĞLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ Ă ƐŚŽƌƚ ůŝƐƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƚŽƵŐŚĞƐƚŽďũĞĐƟŽŶƐƚŚĞLJĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚƚŽŚĞĂƌ ƐŽƚŚĂƚůĂƚĞƌƚŚĞLJĐŽƵůĚƐƚĞĞƌĂĐƚƵĂůƚĂůŬƐ ŝŶƚŚĞĚŝƌĞĐƟŽŶƐƚŚĞLJŶĞĞĚĞĚ
gtĞǀĞů ZĞĂĐƟŽŶ džĂŵƉůĞĐŽŵŵĞŶƚƐĨƌŽŵŽƚŚĞƌƐ
1ĂŋĞĚĚŽĞƐŶƚŐĞƚŝĚĞĂ
хtŚLJĂƌĞLJŽƵĚŽŝŶŐƚŚŝƐхĚŽŶƚƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŚŽǁŝƚǁŝůůĐŚĂŶŐĞĂŶLJƚŚŝŶŐ
2EŽĚƐƉŽůŝƚĞůLJ ŐĞƚƐŝĚĞĂ
хdŚŝƐƐŽƵŶĚƐŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƟŶŐхtŚŽĞůƐĞŚĂǀĞLJŽƵƐŚŽǁĞĚƚŚŝƐƚŽ
3ŐƌĞĞƐǁŝƚŚLJŽƵŶŽĂĐƟŽŶ
хůŝŬĞǁŚĂƚLJŽƵǀĞƉƌŽƉŽƐĞĚхtŚĂƚǁŝůůLJŽƵĚŽŶĞdžƚ
4ŐƌĞĞƐǁŝƚŚLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƐƚŽƉůĂLJ
хŚĂǀĞƐŽŵĞĞdžƚƌĂƟŵĞŝŶƚŚĞĞǀĞŶŝŶŐƐƚŽŚĞůƉхĚůŝŬĞƚŽũŽŝŶLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ
5dƌŝĞƐƚŽĞdžƚĞŶĚŝĚĞĂ
хŬŶŽǁƐŽŵĞďŽĚLJLJŽƵƐŚŽƵůĚƚĂůŬƚŽхDLJŽůĚĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĐŽƵůĚƌĞĂůůLJƵƐĞƚŚŝƐ
6ĚĚƐƐŽŵĞƚŚŝŶŐŶĞǁƚŽƚŚĞŝĚĞĂ
хtĞĐŽƵůĚĂĚĂƉƚƚŚŝƐƐŽůƵƟŽŶĨŽƌŵLJĐŽŶƚĂĐƚƐŝŶŚŝŶĂхΗĐĂŶĂĚĚĂƐĞƌǀŝĐĞŵŽĚĞůƚŽƚŚŝƐƉƌŽĚƵĐƚŝĚĞĂƚŚĂƚǁŝůůŚĞůƉĚƌŝǀĞĂĚŽƉƟŽŶΗ
7ĚĚƐƐŽŵĞƚŚŝŶŐŶĞǁLJŽƵŚĂǀĞŶƚƚŚŽƵŐŚƚŽĨďĞĨŽƌĞ
хΗĐĂŶŚĞůƉLJŽƵƚĂŬĞƚŚŝƐƚŽƚŚĞŐĂŵŝŶŐŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJΗхtŚĂƚŝĨǁĞĚŽƚŚŝƐĨŽƌƚŚĞŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJ
173
We realize others have
an instant gut
reaction to new ideas
which reveals their
true feelings about
playing along
The extra rehearsals lets us test a few different ways of telling our idea to generate the higher level reactionmdashinstead of starting at a lower level and working up to the reaction we wanted from the start of the interaction1
2 3
4 5
6 7
174
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ KƚŚĞƌƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌƐĐĂŶĂĐƚĂƐ
ŽďƐĞƌǀĞƌƐŽƌĐŽĂĐŚĞƐĚƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞƌŽůĞͲƉůĂLJŝŶŐĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞ
ͻ ĨLJŽƵĚŽŶƚŚĂǀĞĂƚĞĂŵLJĞƚLJŽƵĐĂŶƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƟŶŐLJŽƵƌŝŶŝƟĂůŝĚĞĂǁŝƚŚĨƌŝĞŶĚƐĂŶĚĨĂŵŝůLJďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞŝƌĐĂŶĚŝĚƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐǁŝůůŚĞůƉLJŽƵĮŶĞͲƚƵŶĞLJŽƵƌŽǁŶƉŚƌĂƐŝŶŐŽĨƚŚĞŝĚĞĂ
ͻ ZĞůLJŽŶLJŽƵƌŝŶƚƵŝƟŽŶĂŶĚŝŶŶĞƌĨĞĞůŝŶŐƐĂƐLJŽƵĂĚũƵƐƚĂŶĚĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůƌĞĂĐƟŽŶůĞǀĞůƐ
ͻ ltĞĞƉLJŽƵƌĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶƐŝŵƉůĞĂŶĚŚŽŶĞƐƚŝŶŽƌĚĞƌƚŽĂǀŽŝĚŵŝƐůĞĂĚŝŶŐŽƌŝŶŇĂƟŶŐLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐŐŽĂůƐ
ͻ dĂŬĞƟŵĞĚƵƌŝŶŐĂŶĚĂŌĞƌLJŽƵƌƌŽůĞͲƉůĂLJŝŶŐƚŽƌĞŇĞĐƚŽŶďŽƚŚƚŚĞĐŽŶƚĞŶƚĂŶĚƐƚLJůĞŽĨĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶ
ZampgtdKEtŚŝĐŚƌĞĂĐƟŽŶůĞǀĞůĚŽLJŽƵthink you sit at most
commonly
175
Additional examples
ƚĞĂŵŽĨampŝŶŶŝƐŚŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐĂĚŽƉƚĞĚƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŽĞdžƉůŽƌĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂůƌĞĂĐƟŽŶƐ ĨƌŽŵŵĞŵďĞƌ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ ŝŶƐƚĞĂĚ ŽĨ ŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐͿ ƚŽ ŚĞůƉ ƚŚĞŵ ŐĂƵŐĞƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĨŽƌƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJŽĨƚŚĞŝƌZΘĐŽŶƐŽƌƟƵŵ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
BUDDY CHECKS | method worksheet
1
2 3
4 5
6 7
gtĞǀĞůϭĂŋĞĚĚŽĞƐŶƚ
ŐĞƚŝĚĞĂ
gtĞǀĞůϮEŽĚƐƉŽůŝƚĞůLJ
ŐĞƚƐŝĚĞĂ
gtĞǀĞůϯŐƌĞĞƐǁŝƚŚLJŽƵŶŽĂĐƟŽŶ
gtĞǀĞůϰŐƌĞĞƐǁŝƚŚLJŽƵ
ǁĂŶƚƐƚŽƉůĂLJ
gtĞǀĞůϱdƌŝĞƐƚŽĞdžƚĞŶĚŝĚĞĂ
gtĞǀĞůϲĚĚƐƐŽŵĞƚŚŝŶŐŶĞǁƚŽƚŚĞŝĚĞĂ
gtĞǀĞůϳĚĚƐƐŽŵĞƚŚŝŶŐŶĞǁLJŽƵŚĂĚŶƚƚŚŽƵŐŚƚŽĨďĞĨŽƌĞ
177Source The Economist magazine 2008
177
^ŝŶĐĞϭϵϱϴ ƚŚĞh^ĞĨĞŶƐĞĚǀĂŶĐĞĚZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ WƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ŐĞŶĐLJͶŬŶŽǁŶĂƐ ZW ĨŽƌ ƐŚŽƌƚͶŚĂƐ ƉƵƌƐƵĞĚƌĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƌĞůLJŝŶŐ ŽŶ ƐƚƌŽŶŐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůŝƟĞƐ ƚŽ ĚƌŝǀĞ ĂŶĚ ĚĞĮŶĞ ŚŝŐŚƌŝƐŬ ŚŝŐŚ ƌĞǁĂƌĚ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐ ŝŶ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚZW ŬŶŽǁƐ ŝƚ ŶĞĞĚƐ ƚŽ ĂƩƌĂĐƚ Ă
ĐĞƌƚĂŝŶ ƚLJƉĞ ŽĨ ƉĞƌƐŽŶ ĨŽƌ ƚŚŝƐ ŬŝŶĚ ŽĨǁŽƌŬ tŚŝůĞ ŵƵĐŚ ƌĞĐƌƵŝƟŶŐ ŽĐĐƵƌƐƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌĞĨĞƌƌĂůƐ ĂŵŽŶŐ ƐƚĂīƚŚĞĂŐĞŶĐLJƵƐĞƐŝƚƐƉƵďůŝĐũŽďƉŽƐƟŶŐƐĂƐĂďƌŽĂĚƉƌŽǀŽĐĂƟǀĞĂĚǀĞƌƟƐĞŵĞŶƚ dŚĞ
Are you a scientist or engineer with a radical idea (or ideas) that you believe could provide meaningful change of lasting EHQHethWIRUWKH86PLOLWDUWould you like to lead the countryrsquos most capable academic and industrial experts to make that idea become reality in a period of MXVWDIHZHDUV
If so you should consider QVPUPUN[OL+LMLUZL(K]HUJLK9LZLHYJO7YVQLJ[Z(NLUJ`(DARPA) as a program manager
KDWLVD$53$30A DARPA program manager ishellip
gt An idea generator gt A technical expert gt An entrepreneurgt A visionarygt A patriot dedicated to national service
CASE STUDY | A job posting for DARPA
ĨŽĐƵƐ ŝƐ ŽŶ ƉƌŽŵŽƟŶŐ ZW Ɛ ŵŝƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚŝŶƐƉŝƌŝŶŐƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚƉĞŽƉůĞƚŽƌĞƐƉŽŶĚŶ Ă ǁĂLJ ƚŚĞ ZW ũŽď ƉŽƐƟŶŐ
ĨƵŶĐƟŽŶƐ ĂƐ ƚŚĞ ĂŐĞŶĐLJ Ɛ ƵĚĚLJ ŚĞĐŬŽŽĚ ũŽď ĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶƐ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ĂĐĐƵƌĂƚĞƐƵŵŵĂƌŝĞƐ ŽĨ Ă ũŽď ŽƉĞŶŝŶŐ ƌĞĂƚũŽď ĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶƐ ĐĂƵƐĞ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ƚŽ ĂĐƚƌĞĂƚ ũŽď ĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶƐ ĂƌĞ ǀŝƌĂů dŚĞƐŝŐŶ ŽĨ ĂŶ ĞīĞĐƟǀĞ ƉƌŽĮůĞ ŝƐ ƚŚĂƚ ǁŚĞŶƐŽŵĞŽŶĞ ƌĞĂĚƐ ŝƚ ƚŚĞLJ ĞŝƚŚĞƌ ǁĂŶƚ ƚŽĂƉƉůLJ ƚŚĞŵƐĞůǀĞƐ Žƌ ƚŚĞLJ ŝŵŵĞĚŝĂƚĞůLJĂŶĚ ĞŶƚŚƵƐŝĂƐƟĐĂůůLJ ƌĞĐŽŵŵĞŶĚ ŝƚ ƚŽ ĂĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞŽƌĨƌŝĞŶĚ
178
VOICE Stars is a talent diagnostic that measures the leadership aptitude for radical innovation of an individual or team
When to use itͻ dŽĐŽŶĚƵĐƚĂƐĞůĨͲĂƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚĨŽƌ
ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƐŬŝůůƐĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚͻ dŽŵĞĂƐƵƌĞĂŶŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐĂƉƟƚƵĚĞ
ĨŽƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉͻ dŽĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞĂƚĞĂŵ ƐĂďŝůŝƚLJƚŽ
ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂŶĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚƚŚĂƚƐƵƉƉŽƌƚƐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉ
Why itrsquos helpfulĞŶƵŝŶĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŽƌƐĂƌĞĂƵŶŝƋƵĞďƌĞĞĚŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞĞLJŽŶĚ ƚŚĞƵƐƵĂů ũŽďƉĞĚŝŐƌĞĞƐĂŶĚ ƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞ ŵĞƚƌŝĐƐ ƚŚĞLJ ƐĞĞŵƚŽ ŚĂǀĞ Ă ĐĞƌƚĂŝŶ ĚŝƐƟŶŐƵŝƐŚŝŶŐ ŵŝdž ŽĨĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝƐƟĐƐƚŚĂƚĚĞĮŶĞƚŚĞŝƌĂďŝůŝƚLJƚŽůĞĂĚŽƚŚĞƌƐ ŝŶŶĞǁǀĞŶƚƵƌĞƐdŚĞsK
VOICE Stars
^ƚĂƌƐŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐ Ă ƐŝŵƉůĞǁĂLJ ĨŽƌLJŽƵƚŽĂƐƐĞƐƐƚŚĞƐĞůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉƋƵĂůŝƟĞƐĞLJŽŶĚŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůůĞĂĚĞƌƐƚĞĂŵƐŵƵƐƚ
ĚĞŵŽŶƐƚƌĂƚĞ ĐŽůůĞĐƟǀĞ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉ ŝŶǁŚŝĐŚƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌƐƌĞůLJŽŶĞĂĐŚŽƚŚĞƌ ƐĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ƐƚƌĞŶŐƚŚƐ ŝŶ ŽƌĚĞƌ ƚŽ ŽƉĞƌĂƚĞĂƐ Ă ĐŽŚĞƐŝǀĞ ƵŶŝƚ dŚŝƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ĂůůŽǁƐLJŽƵƚŽǀŝĞǁLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐŽǀĞƌĂůůƐĐŽƌŝŶŐĂƐƐĞƐƐŝŶŐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ĂƌĞĂƐ ĚŽŵŝŶĂƚĞ ĂŶĚǁŚŝĐŚĂƌĞĂƐƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂůĂƩĞŶƟŽŶ
What you getzŽƵ ŶŽǁ ŚĂǀĞ Ă ƐŝŵƉůĞ ŐĂƵŐĞ ĨŽƌŝĚĞŶƟĨLJŝŶŐΗƐƚĂƌͲƐŚĂƉĞĚƉĞŽƉůĞΗƚŚĞŬŝŶĚŽĨ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŽƌƐ ŶĞĞĚĞĚ ƚŽ ůĞĂĚ ĂŶĚ ĐĂƌƌLJŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƐĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ
ϭϳϵ
Source Tamara Carleton 2012
Letrsquos look at an exampledŚƌĞĞ ƐĞŶŝŽƌ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ƐƚĂƌƚĞĚ Ă ŶĞǁŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞĂƚĂŶĂƟŽŶĂůƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĂĐŚƉĞƌƐŽŶďƌŽƵŐŚƚĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƐƚƌĞŶŐƚŚƐĂŶĚƚŚĞLJǁĂŶƚĞĚƚŽĂƐƐĞƐƐƚŚĞŝƌĐŽůůĞĐƟǀĞĂďŝůŝƟĞƐ ƚŽ ĨŽƐƚĞƌ Ă ŐƌŽƵƉ ĐůŝŵĂƚĞ ĨŽƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞďĞŚĂǀŝŽƌ hƐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ sK ^ƚĂƌƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƚŚĞLJ
ƌĂŶŬĞĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů ĂƉƟƚƵĚĞ ĂůŽŶŐĮǀĞĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐĨŽƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉsŽƌĂĐŝŽƵƐ KƉĞŶ ŶƐƟŐĂƚĞƐ ƵƌŝŽƵƐĂŶĚĂƌŶĞƐƚͶƚŚĞďĂƐŝƐ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞĂĐƌŽŶLJŵsK ĂĐŚ ƉĞƌƐŽŶ Ɛ ƐĞƚ ŽĨ ĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐǁĂƐĐŽŶŶĞĐƚĞĚďLJĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚůŝŶĞĐŽůŽƌdŚĞLJ ƚŚĞŶ ŶŽƚĞĚ ǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ
ĂŶĚ ŵĞƚƌŝĐƐ Ăƚ ĞĂĐŚ ƉŽŝŶƚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJ ĨŽůůŽǁĞĚ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĞĚ ŽƌĚĞŵŽŶƐƚƌĂƚĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞ
13
1313
13
1313
13
180
Instructionsϭ ƌĂǁĮǀĞůŝŶĞƐůŝŶŬĞĚƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌĂƚ
ƚŚĞĐĞŶƚĞƌ ƐŽƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJƌĞƐĞŵďůĞĂďŝŐĂƐƚĞƌŝƐŬŽƌƐƚĂƌ
Ϯ ƚĞĂĐŚůŝŶĞ ƐĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚǁƌŝƚĞŽŶĞĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞĨƌŽŵƚŚĞsKůŝƐƚsŽƌĂĐŝŽƵƐKƉĞŶŶƐƟŐĂƚĞƐƵƌŝŽƵƐĂŶĚĂƌŶĞƐƚ
ϯ ƌĂǁĮǀĞƟĐŬŵĂƌŬƐĞǀĞŶůLJƐƉĂĐĞĚŽŶĞĂĐŚůŝŶĞdŚĞƐĞŵĂƌŬƐƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƚŚĞƐĐŽƌŝŶŐůĞǀĞůƐĨŽƌĞĂĐŚĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞ
ϰ ^ĐŽƌĞĞĂĐŚƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌ ƐĂƉƟƚƵĚĞĨŽƌĂůůƚŚĞĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐĂĐŚĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞǁŝůůŚĂǀĞŽŶĞƐĐŽƌĞƉĞƌƉĞƌƐŽŶdŚĞƐĐŽƌĞƐĂƌĞƐƵďũĞĐƟǀĞƚŽLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ
ϱ ƌĂǁĂůŝŶĞĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŶŐĂůůĮǀĞĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐĨŽƌĞĂĐŚƉĞƌƐŽŶdŚĞƐĞůŝŶĞƐƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƚŚĞsKƉƌŽĮůĞĨŽƌĞĂĐŚƉĞƌƐŽŶ
ϲ ĚĞŶƟĨLJĞdžĂŵƉůĞĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐĂŶĚŵĞƚƌŝĐƐŶĞdžƚƚŽĞĂĐŚsKĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƚŚĂƚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĂŶĚŽƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĚŽĞƐ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚŝĐŚĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞĚŽŵŝŶĂƚĞƐLJŽƵƌ
ƚĞĂŵtŚLJͻ tŚŝĐŚĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐĐŽƌĞƐƚŚĞ
ůŽǁĞƐƚĂĐƌŽƐƐƚŚĞƚĞĂŵͻ tŚŝĐŚĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞŚĂƐƚŚĞĨĞǁĞƐƚ
ŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐĂƐƐŽĐŝĂƚĞĚǁŝƚŚŝƚĂŶĚǁŚĂƚĐĂŶLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĚŽƚŽďƵŝůĚŵŽƌĞŽĨĂĐůŝŵĂƚĞĨŽƌƚŚŝƐĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞ
ї ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ ĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
181
1 Our first step is to draw the
underlying star shape
2-3 We write a VOICE
attribute at the end of each
line and mark five tick
marks for scoring per line
4-5 We take turns scoring ourselves across all the attributes drawing a connecting line between individual scores
6 We discuss different activities our group does that helps foster a climate for each attribute
182
Drawing insights amp implicationsdŚĞsK ^ƚĂƌƐ ĂƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚ ƌĞŝŶĨŽƌĐĞĚŵƵĐŚ ŽĨ ǁŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŬŶĞǁ ďƵƚŚĂĚ ŶŽƚ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐĞĚ ŽƉĞŶůLJ ďĞĨŽƌĞ ampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ƚŚĞLJ ƌĞůŝĞĚ ŚĞĂǀŝůLJ ŽŶ ŽŶĞƚĞĂŵ ŵĞŵďĞƌ ĂƐ ƚŚĞ ĞdžƚĞƌŶĂů ƌĂĚĂƌ ǁŚŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚŽŶŐŽŝŶŐŵĂƌŬĞƚƐĐĂŶŶŝŶŐĂŶĚƵƉĚĂƚĞƐKŶĞ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉ ĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞ ĚŽŵŝŶĂƚĞĚ
ƚŚĞŝƌƚĞĂŵƐƐĐŽƌĞƐdŚĞLJƐĂǁƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJĂůůƌĂŶŬĞĚŚŝŐŚůLJŽŶďĞŝŶŐĐƵƌŝŽƵƐǁŚŝĐŚƌĞŇĞĐƚĞĚƚŚĞŝƌƐŚĂƌĞĚŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚŝŶǁŽƌŬŝŶŐƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌŽŶĂŶŽƚŚĞƌŶĞǁŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞ
dŚĞLJ ĂůƐŽ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚ ĞůĞŵĞŶƚƐ ƚŚĂƚďƵŝůƚ Ă ŐŽŽĚŐƌŽƵƉ ĐƵůƚƵƌĞŽĨ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶKŶĞ ĂƌĞĂ ƚŚĞLJ ĨĞůƚ ŶĞĞĚĞĚ ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞŵĞŶƚǁĂƐ ŶƐƟŐĂƚĞ ǁŚŝĐŚ ŚĂĚ ĨĞǁ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐůŝƐƚĞĚ ďLJ ŝƚ dŚĞŝƌ ŝŶƐŝŐŚƚ ǁĂƐ ƚŚĞLJũŽŝŶƚůLJ ƐƉĞŶƚ ŵŽƌĞ ƟŵĞ ƌĞĂĐƟŶŐ ƚŽ ŶĞǁŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƟĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJ ƐƚƵŵďůĞĚ ƵƉŽŶŝŶƐƚĞĂĚ ŽĨ ƚĂŬŝŶŐ ŵŽƌĞ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐ ĂĐƟŽŶƚŽ ƉƌŽŵƉƚ ĂŶĚ ĞdžƉůŽƌĞ ŶĞǁ ƉŽƐƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƉŽƐƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶͶĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŶ ĚƌŝǀĞ ƚŚŽƐĞƉŽƐƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐ ƚŽ ĨƌƵŝƟŽŶ ƉĂƐƚ ƚŚĞ ZΘƉƌŽƉŽƐĂůƐƚĂŐĞdŚĞLJĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŽďĞŵŽƌĞĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞŝŶƚŚŝƐĂƌĞĂŝŶƚŚĞĐŽŵŝŶŐLJĞĂƌ dŚĞLJŬŶĞǁŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŽƌƐŐĞƚŝĚĞĂƐĚŽŶĞ
ƩƌŝďƵƚĞ ĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶ
sŽƌĂĐŝŽƵƐ
ůǁĂLJƐĮŶĚŝŶŐĂŶĚĐĂƉƚƵƌŝŶŐǁŝĚĞůLJƚŽĂĚĚƚŽĂƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůĐŽůůĞĐƟŽŶŽĨŝĚĞĂƐŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƐĂŶĚƉĞŽƉůĞ
KƉĞŶZĞĐĞƉƟǀĞƚŽŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƐƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞƐŽƌĂƌŐƵŵĞŶƚƐ
ŶƐƟŐĂƚĞƐ
^ƚĂƌƚƐƚŚĞĂĐƟŽŶĐŽŵƉĞůůĞĚƚŽƚƌLJ ƐƟŵƵůĂƚĞĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞŽƌƉƌŽǀŽŬĞŶĞǁĚŝĂůŽŐƵĞƐƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐŚŝƉƐĂŶĚŵŽƌĞ
ƵƌŝŽƵƐĂŐĞƌƚŽůĞĂƌŶĂŶĚŬŶŽǁŵŽƌĞǁŝůůŝŶŐƚŽĂƐŬǁŚĂƚŝĨ
ĂƌŶĞƐƚ^ŝŶĐĞƌĞůLJnjĞĂůŽƵƐǁŚŽůĞŚĞĂƌƚĞĚůLJƐĞƌŝŽƵƐŝŶƉƵƌƉŽƐĞƌĂĚŝĂƚĞƐƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƉƌŝŶĐŝƉůĞƐ
183
We realize our team scores most high on
being curious which helps explain why we
all appreciate exploring new topics and possibilities together
Only one of our team is regularly
voracious and we discuss how we
rely on him to hear the latest news
updates and scan the market for us
We find it tough to
think of examples we
do to provoke or start
new actions which
leads to a good
discussion about
what other activities
and even people we
should get to help us
grow in this area
184
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ĞƌƚĂŝŶsKƚĞƌŵƐŵĂLJŶŽƚ
ƚƌĂŶƐůĂƚĞĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJŝŶƚŽŽƚŚĞƌůĂŶŐƵĂŐĞƐƐŽƚĂŬĞƟŵĞƚŽƌĞĂĚƚŚĞĞdžƉĂŶĚĞĚĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶƐƚŽĮŶĚďĞƩĞƌƐLJŶŽŶLJŵƐ
ͻ ŽŶƚƉĞƌĨĞĐƚƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚŝnjŝŶŐƐĐĂůĞƐǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞƚĞĂŵĂŶĚŝŶƐƚĞĂĚĨŽĐƵƐŵŽƌĞŽŶƚŚĞĚŝĂůŽŐƵĞƚŚĂƚƌĞƐƵůƚƐĨƌŽŵĂŶŚŽŶĞƐƚĂƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚŽĨƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůĂŶĚŽƌŐƌŽƵƉĂƉƟƚƵĚĞ
ͻ ŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂĚĂƉƟŶŐƚŚŝƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŽĐŽŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĞdžŝƐƟŶŐŚŝƌŝŶŐƉƌŽĐĞĚƵƌĞƐĂƐĂŶŝŶĨŽƌŵĂůĂƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚƚŽŽů
ZampgtdKEWho do you know that
best exhibits all four
sKĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐ
185
Additional examples
KŶĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŝŶĂŶƵƌŽƉĞĂŶZΘĐŽŶƐŽƌƟƵŵĨŽƵŶĚƚŚĂƚŝƚǁĂƐĞĂƐLJƚŽƐĐŽƌĞƚŚĞĨƵůůƚĞĂŵďƵƚŵƵĐŚŚĂƌĚĞƌƚŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJƌĞůĂƚĞĚĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐĨŽƌĞĂĐŚĂƌĞĂ
Ŷ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJ ƚĞĂŵ ĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌĞĚƚŚĂƚ ĐĞƌƚĂŝŶ ĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐ ŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚ ĂďƌŽĂĚ ƐĐŽƌŝŶŐ ƌĂŶŐĞ ƉƌŽŵƉƟŶŐ Ă ĐĂŶĚŝĚĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ ĂďŽƵƚ ƐĞůĨ ǀĞƌƐƵƐ ŐƌŽƵƉƉĞƌĐĞƉƟŽŶƐŽĨĞĂĐŚƉĞƌƐŽŶΖƐĂƉƟƚƵĚĞ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
13
1313
1313
1313
1313
1313
VOICE STARS | method worksheet
187
^ŝŶĐĞ ϭϵϱϴ ƚŚĞ h^ ĞĨĞŶƐĞ ĚǀĂŶĐĞĚZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ WƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ŐĞŶĐLJͶŬŶŽǁŶ ĂƐZW ĨŽƌ ƐŚŽƌƚͶŚĂƐ ƉƵƌƐƵĞĚ ƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǁŚŝĐŚŚĂƐďĞĞŶĚƌŝǀĞŶŚĞĂǀŝůLJďLJƚŚĞŝƌƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐWDƐͿ
The DARPA ethosWDƐ ĂƌĞ ŚŝƌĞĚ ŽŶ Ă ƐŚŽƌƚͲƚĞƌŵ ďĂƐŝƐͶƚLJƉŝĐĂůůLJ ϯͲϰ LJĞĂƌƐͶƚŽ ĮŶĚ ĨƵŶĚ ĂŶĚĨŽƐƚĞƌ ŶĞǁ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝĚĞĂƐ ďĂƐĞĚ ŽŶƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĞĂĐŚŽŶĞŽĨƚŚĞŵŝƐ ĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ƚŽ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ tŚŝůĞ ƚŚĞ WDƐĚĞǀĞůŽƉƚŚĞŽǀĞƌĂƌĐŚŝŶŐǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĞLJĚŽŶŽƚ ďƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ƚŽ ůŝĨĞ ƚŚĞŵƐĞůǀĞƐŶƐƚĞĂĚƚŚĞWDƐĨƵŶĚŵƵůƟƉůĞƚĞĂŵƐĂƚƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐĂŶĚŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚůĂďƐǁŚŽƚĂŬĞŽǁŶĞƌƐŚŝƉŽĨƚŚĞƐĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ^ĞǀĞƌĂů LJĞĂƌƐ ĂŐŽ ŵĞŶΖƐ ŵĂŐĂnjŝŶĞ
ƐƋƵŝƌĞ ĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞĚ ƚŚĞZWWD ƚŽ ƚŚĞŵĞƌŝĐĂŶƉƵďůŝĐ tŚĂƚLJŽƵŐĞƚŐĞŶĞƌĂůůLJ ŝƐ ĂďŽƵƚ ĨŽƵƌ LJĞĂƌƐͶĨŽƵƌ LJĞĂƌƐ ƚŽ ĚŽƐŽŵĞƚŚŝŶŐƚŚĂƚ ƐŶĞǀĞƌďĞĞŶĚŽŶĞďĞĨŽƌĞampŽƵƌLJĞĂƌƐƚŽĚŽƚŚĞŝŵƉŽƐƐŝďůĞƚ ƐǁŚĂƚĂĐĐŽƵŶƚƐĨŽƌƚŚĞĨĂĐƚƚŚĂƚǁŚŽůĞĮĞůĚƐŽĨŝŶƋƵŝƌLJƌŝƐĞƵƉĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞĞŶƚŚƵƐŝĂƐŵƐŽĨƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐͶĮĞůĚƐŽĨŝŶƋƵŝƌLJƚŚĂƚ
CASE STUDY | Program Managers at DARPA
ǁĞƌĞŶƚƚŚĞƌĞďĞĨŽƌĞĂŶĚƚŚĂƚŬĞĞƉŐŽŝŶŐĂŌĞƌ ƚŚĞƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌ ŝƐ ŐŽŶĞĂůůƚŚĞŵƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐŝĨLJŽƵǁĂŶƚďƵƚƌĞĂůůLJ ŝĨ ƚŚĞǁŚŽůĞ ZW ĞƚŚŽƐ ǁŽƌŬƐƚŚĞLJ ďĞĐŽŵĞ ĨĂƚŚĞƌƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĮĞůĚƐDŽƚŚĞƌƐŽĨŝŶǀĞŶƟŽŶŶǀĞŶƚŽƌƐ
The basic profileZWWDƐĚŝƐƉůĂLJĂĐĞƌƚĂŝŶƚĞůůƚĂůĞŵŝdžŽĨĂƩƌŝďƵƚĞƐtŚŝůĞZWŝƌĞĐƚŽƌƐ ĂĚĂƉƚĂ ŐĞŶĞƌĂů ŚŝƌŝŶŐ ƉƌŽĮůĞ ǁŚĞŶ ƌĞĐƌƵŝƟŶŐWDƐƚŚĞLJƵůƟŵĂƚĞůLJƌĞůLJŽŶƚŚĞŝƌŐƵƚĨŽƌĮŶĚŝŶŐƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚƉĞƌƐŽŶǁŚŝĐŚďŽŝůƐĚŽǁŶƚŽĂŚĂŶĚĨƵůŽĨŬĞLJƚƌĂŝƚƐͻ sŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐͻ dĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůĞdžƉĞƌƟƐĞͻ gtĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉͻ ŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶƐŬŝůůƐͻ ampŝƐĐĂůƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďŝůŝƚLJDŽƐƚŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚůLJ WDƐďƌŝŶŐĂǀŝƐŝŽŶŽĨ
ǁŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJǁĂŶƚ ƚŽ ĐŚĂŶŐĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚůŽŽŬŝŶŐƚŽďŽŽƐƚƚŚĞŵĂŐŶŝƚƵĚĞŽĨŝŵƉĂĐƚǁŝƚŚ ZW ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐ hƐƵĂůůLJ ƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůůLJƚƌĂŝŶĞĚ WDƐ ďƌŝŶŐ ĚĞĞƉ ĞdžƉĞƌƟƐĞĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽďůĞŵ ƐƉĂĐĞ ĨƌŽŵƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ ĂŶĚ LJĞĂƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĮĞůĚ dŚĞLJ
ĂƌĞ ĂůƐŽ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƐŽŵĞ ĨŽƌŵ ĞŝƚŚĞƌŵĂŶĂŐŝŶŐ ŵƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƚĞĂŵƐ Žƌ ĚŝƌĞĐƟŶŐ ůĂƌŐĞ ŝŶƐƟƚƵƟŽŶĂůƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐ Ɛ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐ ƚŚĞLJ ŬŶŽǁ ƚŚĞŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶĐĞ ŽĨ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŶŐ ƚŚĞŝƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƟƌĞůĞƐƐůLJ ĐƌĞĂƟǀĞůLJ ĂŶĚďƌŽĂĚůLJgtĂƐƚůLJ ƚŚĞLJ ŵƵƐƚ ŽǀĞƌƐĞĞ ďŝŐ ďƵĚŐĞƚƐǁŚŝĐŚƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĮƐĐĂůƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďŝůŝƚLJ
Where to find themZW WDƐ ĂƌĞ ƌĞĐƌƵŝƚĞĚ ĨƌŽŵŵƵůƟƉůĞ ƐƉŚĞƌĞƐ ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐ ŶĂƟŽŶĂů ůĂďŽƌĂƚŽƌŝĞƐŶŽŶƉƌŽĮƚ ĂŶĚ ĨĞĚĞƌĂůůLJ ĨƵŶĚĞĚ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĐĞŶƚĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ LJƐĐŽƵƟŶŐ ĂĐƌŽƐƐ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐƚŚĞĂŐĞŶĐLJĞŶƐƵƌĞƐĚŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨƚĂůĞŶƚǁŝƚŚĂƌĞůĂƚĞĚĚŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJŝĚĞĂƐ
188
Crowd Clovers maps the various related components of a personal network focused on advancing new innovation ideas
When to use itͻ dŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂŵĂƉŽĨLJŽƵƌŽǁŶŽƌ
ƚĞĂŵ ƐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬͻ dŽĂƐƐĞƐƐǁŚŝĐŚĂƌĞĂƐƚŽďŽůƐƚĞƌŽƌ
ĐŚĂŶŐĞŝŶLJŽƵƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬͻ dŽĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƚŚĞďĂůĂŶĐĞďĞƚǁĞĞŶ
ĨŽƌŵĂůĂŶĚŝŶĨŽƌŵĂůƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐǁŝƚŚŝŶĂŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ
Why itrsquos helpfulƐ ƚŚĞ ŐůŽďĂů ĞĐŽŶŽŵLJ ďĞĐŽŵĞƐŝŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐůLJ ŝŶƚĞƌĐŽŶŶĞĐƚĞĚ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ŐƌŽƵƉƐ ƌĞůLJ ŚĞĂǀŝůLJ ŽŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ ƚŽ ŚĞůƉ ƚŚĞŵ ĮŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉ ĂŶĚ ĚĞůŝǀĞƌ ŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂƐ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŝƌƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐ dŚĞ ƌŽǁĚůŽǀĞƌƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐĂƐŝŵƉůĞǁĂLJƚŽĐĂƚĞŐŽƌŝnjĞĂŶĚĂƐƐĞƐƐĨŽƵƌƉƌŝŵĂƌLJǁĂLJƐLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĐĂŶƐƵƉƉŽƌƚƚŚĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨĂŶĞǁŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂ
Crowd Clovers
dŚĞƌĞĂƌĞŵƵůƟƉůĞĨŽƌŵƐĂŶĚƚLJƉĞƐŽĨŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐͶƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ĂŶ ŽƉĞŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ Žƌ Ă ΗĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ ŽĨ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞΗdŚĞ ƌŽǁĚ ůŽǀĞƌƐ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ƚĂŬĞƐ ĂƐůŝŐŚƚůLJ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ĂŶŐůĞ ĞŶĞƌĂůůLJ ĂŶŽƉĞŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ŝƐ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ŽŶŽƵƚƐŽƵƌĐŝŶŐ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĨƌŽŵ ĞdžƚĞƌŶĂů ƉĂƌƟĞƐƌĞůLJŝŶŐ ŽŶ ĨŽƌŵĂů ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞƐ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶƉĞŽƉůĞ ŚŽǁĞǀĞƌ Ă ƌŽǁĚ ůŽǀĞƌƐŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƐƚŚĞŝŶƚĞƌƉůĂLJďĞƚǁĞĞŶĨŽƌŵĂů ĂŶĚ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂů ƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐ ŶĂĚĚŝƟŽŶ Ă ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ ŽĨ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞ ŝƐĚĞĮŶĞĚďLJƐŚĂƌĞĚŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚƐƐŽĂůůĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐĂƌĞĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚĂƌŽƵŶĚŐƌŽƵƉ ůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐĂŶĚĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞ ŝŶ ĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚ Ă ƌŽǁĚ ůŽǀĞƌƐŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ŵĂƉ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƐ ƚŚĞ ĂĐƟŽŶƐĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ĐĂŶ ƚĂŬĞ ƚŽƉƵƐŚĂŶĞǁŝĚĞĂĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ
What you getLJ ĐƌĞĂƟŶŐ Ă ƌŽǁĚ ůŽǀĞƌƐ ŵĂƉ LJŽƵǁŝůů ĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝnjĞ ĂŶĚ ŵĂƉ LJŽƵƌ ŐƌŽƵƉ ƐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ
ϭϴϵSource Tamara Carleton 2012
Letrsquos look at an exampleKƩŽ ƌĞĐĞŶƚůLJ ĂĐĐĞƉƚĞĚ Ă ŶĞǁ ƉŽƐŝƟŽŶĂƐ ƐĞŶŝŽƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌ Ăƚ ĂŵĞĚŝƵŵͲƐŝnjĞĚ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ Įƌŵ ǁŚŝĐŚ ŚĂƐƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĚ ĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞ ƚƌĂŝŶŝŶŐ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĐŽŶƐƵůƟŶŐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐĨŽƌƚŚĞůĂƐƚϰϬLJĞĂƌƐKƩŽŶŽǁǁŝůůĚŝƌĞĐƚƚŚĞƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJĂŶĚ ĞdžĞĐƵƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ Ɛ ĞŶƟƌĞƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƉŽƌƞŽůŝŽŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐZΘƉƌŝĐŝŶŐĂŶĚƉƌŽŵŽƟŽŶĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐKŶĞŽĨŚŝƐĚƵƟĞƐŝƐƚŽƉĂƌƚŶĞƌǁŝƚŚŽƚŚĞƌ
ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƵŶŝƚƐĂŶĚĮŶĚŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ ƚŽ ŵĂŝŶƚĂŝŶ ƐLJŶĞƌŐŝĞƐ ĂĐƌŽƐƐĂůůƉƌŽĚƵĐƚĐĂƚĞŐŽƌŝĞƐEŽƚŚŝŶŐ ŝŶKƩŽ ƐũŽď ĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƟŽŶ ŶŽƚĞƐ ƚŚĞ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶĐĞŽĨ ůĞǀĞƌĂŐŝŶŐ ĞdžƚĞƌŶĂů ƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ ĂŶĚďƵŝůĚŝŶŐ Ă ŐƌĞĂƚĞƌ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ ĂŵŽŶŐƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞƌƐͶǁŚŝĐŚ ŚĞŬŶŽǁƐ ŝƐ ĂůƐŽ ĐƌƵĐŝĂů ƚŽ ŚŝƐ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƐŐƌŽǁƚŚĂŶĚƐƵĐĐĞƐƐ
KƩŽŵĂƉƐŚŝƐŐƌŽƵƉ ƐŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŶŽƟŶŐǁŚŝĐŚƉĞŽƉůĞƚŚĞLJƌĞůLJŽŶďŽƚŚĨŽƌŵĂůůLJĂŶĚ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂůůLJ ĨŽƌ ŚĞůƉ ǁŝƚŚ ŝŶƐƉŝƌĂƟŽŶŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƉƵƌƉůĞ ƋƵĂĚƌĂŶƚͿ ƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐŐƌĞĞŶͿ ĞdžĞĐƵƟŽŶ ƌĞĚͿ ĂŶĚ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŽƵƚƌĞĂĐŚďůƵĞͿĞĨƵƌƚŚĞƌŵĂƌŬƐĨŽƌŵĂůƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐǁŝƚŚďŽdžĞƐ
gtD
KKE
ZEKEE
gthZ
DEEgtKh^
WdZ
gt^
^Z
KgtsZ
EE
KEEdKZ^
EgtZ^
WZKDKdZ^
d
gtz^d^
D
ϭϵϬ
Instructionsϭ ƌĂǁĂůĂƌŐĞĨŽƵƌͲůĞĂĨĐůŽǀĞƌǁŝƚŚ
ƚŚĞůĞĂŇĞƚƐĨĂĐŝŶŐƚŚĞĨŽƵƌĐĂƌĚŝŶĂůĚŝƌĞĐƟŽŶƐŝĞŶŽƌƚŚƐŽƵƚŚĞĂƐƚǁĞƐƚͿ
Ϯ ŶƚŚĞůĞŌǁĞƐƚͿůĞĂŇĞƚǁƌŝƚĞƚŚĞŶĂŵĞƐŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞLJŽƵŬŶŽǁǁŚŽŐŝǀĞLJŽƵŶĞǁǀŝĞǁƉŽŝŶƚƐŽƌŝĚĞĂƐŝŶǁŽƌŬĂŶĚůŝĨĞtŚŽŝŶƐƉŝƌĞƐŽƌƉƌŽǀŽŬĞƐLJŽƵŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞĨƌŽŵĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐƚŽĐŚŝůĚƌĞŶzŽƵŵĂLJůĂďĞůƚŚŝƐůĞĂŇĞƚΗĂƚĂůLJƐƚƐΗ
ϯ ŶƚŚĞƚŽƉŶŽƌƚŚͿůĞĂŇĞƚǁƌŝƚĞƚŚĞŶĂŵĞƐŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞLJŽƵŬŶŽǁǁŚŽĐŽŶŶĞĐƚLJŽƵƚŽŵŽƌĞƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐƐƵĐŚĂƐƉĞŽƉůĞŽƌŵŽŶĞLJŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞĨƌŽŵƐƵƉĞƌǀŝƐŽƌƐƚŽŶĞŝŐŚďŽƌƐtŚŽŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵĮŶĚǁĂLJƐƚŽŐƌŽǁzŽƵŵĂLJůĂďĞůƚŚŝƐůĞĂŇĞƚΗŽŶŶĞĐƚŽƌƐΗ
ϰ ŶƚŚĞƌŝŐŚƚĞĂƐƚͿůĞĂŇĞƚǁƌŝƚĞƚŚĞŶĂŵĞƐŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞLJŽƵŬŶŽǁǁŚŽ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚŝĐŚƋƵĂĚƌĂŶƚǁĂƐĞĂƐLJƚŽ
ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞͻ tŚŝĐŚƋƵĂĚƌĂŶƚŚĂƐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚ
ŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨĨŽƌŵĂůǀĞƌƐƵƐŝŶĨŽƌŵĂůƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐ
ͻ ŽǁǁŽƵůĚLJŽƵŵĂƉŽƚŚĞƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐƐƵĐŚĂƐĐŽŶƚĂĐƚĨƌĞƋƵĞŶĐLJ
ŚĞůƉLJŽƵŐĞƚƚŚŝŶŐƐĚŽŶĞtŚŽĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞƐLJŽƵƚŽƚĂŬĞĂĐƟŽŶŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞĨƌŽŵĞŵƉůŽLJĞĞƐƚŽƐƉŽƵƐĞƐzŽƵŵĂLJůĂďĞůƚŚŝƐůĞĂŇĞƚŶĂďůĞƌƐ
ϱ ŶƚŚĞďŽƩŽŵƐŽƵƚŚͿůĞĂŇĞƚǁƌŝƚĞƚŚĞŶĂŵĞƐŽĨƉĞŽƉůĞLJŽƵŬŶŽǁǁŚŽƉƌŽŵŽƚĞLJŽƵĂŶĚLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞĨƌŽŵďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐƚŽĨƌŝĞŶĚůLJĂĐƋƵĂŝŶƚĂŶĐĞƐtŚŽĐĂŶŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐĞLJŽƵĂŶĚLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂͿƚŽŽƚŚĞƌŐƌŽƵƉƐĂŶĚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐzŽƵŵĂLJůĂďĞůƚŚŝƐůĞĂŇĞƚΗWƌŽŵŽƚĞƌƐΗ
ϲ ŝƌĐůĞŽƌĚƌĂǁďŽdžĞƐĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞŶĂŵĞƐŽĨƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞǁŚŽLJŽƵǁŽƌŬǁŝƚŚĨŽƌŵĂůůLJ ƐƵĐŚĂƐLJŽƵƌďŽƐƐŽƌƐƵƉƉůŝĞƌ
ї^ĞĞƚŚĞĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚĚŝĂŐƌĂŵĨŽƌĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
ϭϵϭ
13
1313
CA
TALY
STS
CONNECTORS
PROMOTERS
ENA
BLER
S
1 I first draw
the outline for a
big four-leaf
clover using
different colors
per leaflet to
signify the
network actionI desire for my
unit
2 I write the people who
provoke me most in the
purple leaflet (purple =
provoke)
3 I write the people who grow
and expand our ideas with
access to more resources in the
green leaflet (green = grow)
4 I write the people who realize our efforts and push us toward action in the red leaflet (red = realize)
5 I write the people who broadcast and circulate our ideas within their networks in the blue leaflet (blue = broadcast)6 I draw boxes around the people whom we relate to formally (like our boss and other division leads)
ϭϵϮ
Drawing insights amp implicationsKƩŽŬŶŽǁƐƚŚĂƚƚŚĞƌĞŝƐŵŽƌĞƚŽƚĞŶĚŝŶŐĂŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƚŚĂŶƐŝŵƉůLJĂĚĚŝŶŐŵŽƌĞ ŶĂŵĞƐ ƚŽ ŚŝƐ gtŝŶŬĞĚŶ ƌŽůŽĚĞdž ŶĨĂĐƚ ŚĞǁĂƐ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůůLJ ƌĞůŝĞǀĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ŚŝƐŐƌŽƵƉ ŚĂĚ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐ ĂĐƌŽƐƐ Ăůů ĨŽƵƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĐĂƚĞŐŽƌŝĞƐĞ ĚŽĞƐ ƐĞĞ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJ ƌĞůLJ ŵŽƐƚ
ŽŶ ĨŽƌŵĂů ĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐ ŝŶ ƚǁŽ ĂƌĞĂƐĮŶĚŝŶŐ ƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ ĂŶĚ ĚƌŝǀŝŶŐ ĞdžĞĐƵƟŽŶdŚĞƐĞ ĂƌĞĂƐ ŵĂŬĞ ƐĞŶƐĞ ĨŽƌ ĚĂLJͲƚŽͲĚĂLJďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ŚŽǁĞǀĞƌ ŚĞ ĨĞĞůƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJƐŚŽƵůĚĐƵůƟǀĂƚĞŵŽƌĞŝŶĨŽƌŵĂůůŝŶŬƐƚŽůĂLJƚŚĞĨŽƵŶĚĂƟŽŶĨŽƌůŽŶŐĞƌͲƚĞƌŵŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐdŚĞ ĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞ ĂůƐŽ ƌĞŝŶĨŽƌĐĞƐ ŚŝƐ
ĮƌƐƚ ŝŵƉƌĞƐƐŝŽŶ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ŐƌŽƵƉ ůĂĐŬƐĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐ ƚŽ ƉƌŽŵŽƚĞ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĞīŽƌƚƐŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƚŚĞďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƵŶŝƚƐŽŶĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶKƩŽƉůĂŶƐƚŽŚŝƌĞĂƉĞƌƐŽŶƚŽďƵŝůĚƚŚĞŝƌĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞƌĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ
ŶƐŝŐŚƚ WŽƐƐŝďůĞŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĂĐƟŽŶƚŽƚĂŬĞ
DLJŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĨĞĞůƐƚŽŽƐŵĂůůgt ŶǀŝƚĞLJŽƵƌĐŽŶƚĂĐƚƚŽƐŚĂƌĞƐƚŽƌŝĞƐĨƌŽŵǁŽƌŬĂŶĚůŝĨĞŽǀĞƌĐŽīĞĞŽƌǁŝŶĞ
DLJŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĨĞĞůƐƚŽŽƐŵĂůůgt ƐŬLJŽƵƌƉĞĞƌƐƚŽŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐĞLJŽƵƚŽŵŽƌĞƉĞŽƉůĞƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJĨĞĞůĞŵďŽĚLJĂƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĂƌĞĂ
ƌĞůLJŽŶƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƉĞŽƉůĞĨŽƌĞǀĞƌLJƚŚŝŶŐ
gt ĸƌŵĞdžŝƐƟŶŐƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐďLJƐĞŶĚŝŶŐĂďƌŝĞĨŶŽƚĞŽĨĂƉƉƌĞĐŝĂƟŽŶƚŽĞĂĐŚƉĞƌƐŽŶ
DLJĐŽŵƉĂŶLJŝƐŵLJŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ
gt ŶĐƌĞĂƐĞĚŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJďLJŵĞĞƟŶŐϯͲϰŶŽŶͲǁŽƌŬĐŽŶƚĂĐƚƐĨƌŽŵƐĐŚŽŽůƉĂƐƚũŽďƐŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJƐĞƌǀŝĐĞĐŚƵƌĐŚĞƚĐ
ĮŶĚŝƚĚŝĸĐƵůƚƚŽĞdžƉĂŶĚŵLJŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ
gt ƐŬĞdžŝƐƟŶŐƐƵƉƉŽƌƟǀĞĐŽŶƚĂĐƚƐĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌƐƵŐŐĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽŚŽǁƚŽĞdžƉĂŶĚLJŽƵƌĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐ
ŵĂŶĂŐĞĂƚĞĂŵĂŶĚǁĂŶƚƚŽŝŵƉƌŽǀĞƚŚĞŝƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐ
gt ŽƐƚĂƌĞŐƵůĂƌŝŶĨŽƌŵĂůŐƌŽƵƉŐĂƚŚĞƌŝŶŐƐƵĐŚĂƐĂƉŝnjnjĂůƵŶĐŚŽƌĂŌĞƌŶŽŽŶĐŽīĞĞďƌĞĂŬŝŶǁŚŝĐŚƚĞĂŵŵĞŵďĞƌƐĂƌĞĞŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞĚƚŽŝŶǀŝƚĞŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƌƐ
ǁŽƵůĚůŝŬĞƚŽŬŶŽǁŵŽƌĞĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞŝŶŵLJŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ
gt ^ŚĂƌĞĂƐĞƚŽĨƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƐƚŽƌŝĞƐǁŝƚŚĞĂĐŚƉĞƌƐŽŶŝŶĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶgt ĂƉƚƵƌĞĚĞƚĂŝůƐĂďŽƵƚŶĞǁĐŽŶƚĂĐƚƐŝŶĂŶŽƚĞŬŽƌĚĂƚĂďĂƐĞŝŵŵĞĚŝĂƚĞůLJĂŌĞƌŵĞĞƟŶŐƚŚĞŵ
ǁŽƵůĚůŝŬĞƚŽŝŵƉƌŽǀĞŵLJŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƉŽƐŝƟŽŶ
gt ŶǀŝƚĞĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬĨƌŽŵLJŽƵƌĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐĂďŽƵƚǁŚĂƚƚŚĞLJƚŚŝŶŬLJŽƵĚŽďĞƐƚƐŽLJŽƵĐĂŶĚŽŵŽƌĞ
ϭϵϯ
I was relieved to see that we
did not rely on the same
small group of people for all
our innovation efforts
I see we rely most heavily on
formal ties for two areas of network action namely to
find resources and to push us to execute
I know few people
who help promote our
ideas and expose us to
other networks an
area I decide to
improve this year by
hiring a person to
build our developer
community
13
1313
CA
TALY
STS
CONNECTORS
PROMOTERS
ENA
BLER
S
ϭϵϰ
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ŽŶƚďĞĚŝƐŚĞĂƌƚĞŶĞĚŝĨLJŽƵƌ
ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬůŽŽŬƐŵĞƐƐLJŽƌĐŚĂŽƟĐdŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐŽĨǀŝƐƵĂůŝnjŝŶŐŝƚǁŝůůďƌŝŶŐĐůĂƌŝƚLJĂŶĚŚĞůƉLJŽƵŝĚĞŶƟĨLJǁŚĂƚƐŚŽƵůĚĐŚĂŶŐĞĂŶĚǁŚĞƌĞ
ͻ KǀĞƌůĂƉƉĞŽƉůĞĂŶĚůĞĂŇĞƚƐĂƐŶĞĞĚĞĚ
ͻ ĨLJŽƵůŝŬĞŵĂŬŝŶŐůŝƐƚƐLJŽƵŵĂLJĮŶĚŝƚŚĞůƉĨƵůƚŽǁƌŝƚĞĚŽǁŶĂůůƚŚĞĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƟĞƐLJŽƵƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƚĞǁŝƚŚŽŶĂƐĞŵŝͲͿƌĞŐƵůĂƌďĂƐŝƐĂŶĚƚŚĞŶŝĚĞŶƟĨLJŬĞLJƉĞŽƉůĞǁŝƚŚŝŶĞĂĐŚĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJǁŚŽLJŽƵĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂƐLJŽƵƌĐŽŶƚĂĐƚƐ
ͻ ŶĐůƵĚĞĂůůƚLJƉĞƐŽĨƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐŝŶLJŽƵƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐƉƵďůŝĐƉƌŝǀĂƚĞĨĂŵŝůLJ ĨƌŝĞŶĚƐĐŽǁŽƌŬĞƌƐŵĞŶƚŽƌƐŽŶůŝŶĞĚŝŐŝƚĂůͿĂŶĚƉŚLJƐŝĐĂů
ͻ ZĞĂůŝnjĞƚŚĂƚŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐĐŚĂŶŐĞŽǀĞƌƟŵĞĂƐLJŽƵƌƉƌŝŽƌŝƟĞƐĐŚĂŶŐĞĂŶĚĂƐƉĞŽƉůĞŵŽǀĞƉŽƐŝƟŽŶƐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƌĞǀŝƐŝƟŶŐLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŵĂƉĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚůLJĂŶĚƵƉĚĂƟŶŐŝƚƚŽĮƚLJŽƵƌůĂƚĞƐƚĐŽŵƉĂŶLJŽƌƉĞƌƐŽŶĂůƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ
ZampgtdKEWhich quadrant would your
colleagues place you in most
ͻ zŽƵĐĂŶŵĂƉLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŵĂŶƵĂůůLJŽƌƚŚƌŽƵŐŚǀĂƌŝŽƵƐƐŽŌǁĂƌĞ
ͻ ŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂĚŽƉƟŶŐƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŽŵĂƉƚŚĞŶĞƚǁŽƌŬĨŽƌLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂĂƐĂǁĂLJƚŽďƵŝůĚŝƚƐŝŶŝƟĂůĞĐŽƐLJƐƚĞŵ
gtĞĂŇĞƚ EĞƚǁŽƌŬĂĐƟŽŶ
ĂƚĂůLJƐƚƐ
WĞŽƉůĞǁŚŽƉƌŽǀŽŬĞLJŽƵǁŝƚŚŶĞǁŝŶƐŝŐŚƚƐĂŶĚƉŽƐƐŝďŝůŝƟĞƐ
ŽŶŶĞĐƚŽƌƐ
WĞŽƉůĞǁŚŽŐƌŽǁLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂŽƌĞīŽƌƚďLJƉƌŽǀŝĚŝŶŐĂĐĐĞƐƐƚŽŽƚŚĞƌƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐǁŽƌŬĞƌƐƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐĨƵŶĚŝŶŐĞƚĐ
ŶĂďůĞƌƐ
WĞŽƉůĞǁŚŽŚĞůƉLJŽƵƌĞĂůŝnjĞLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂƚŚƌŽƵŐŚĂĐƟŽŶŽƌďLJƉƌŽĚĚŝŶŐLJŽƵƚŽƉƌŽĐĞĞĚ
WƌŽŵŽƚĞƌƐ
WĞŽƉůĞǁŚŽďƌŽĂĚĐĂƐƚĂŶĚĐŝƌĐƵůĂƚĞLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂĂŶĚLJŽƵͿǁŝƚŚŽƚŚĞƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ
ϭϵϱ
Additional examples
ƵƌŽƉĞĂŶ ƚĞĂŵ ĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞĚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ũŽŝŶƚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬůŽŽŬŝŶŐĂƚĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůůLJ ĂŶĚ ĞdžƚĞƌŶĂůůLJ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŝƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ
Ŷ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJ ƚĞĂŵ ĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞĚ ƚŚĞŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ŝŶƐƟƚƵƟŽŶĂůƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
CROWD CLOVERS | method worksheet
KEEdKZ^
EgtZ^
WZKDKdZ^
d
gtz^d^
D
ŝƌĐůĞƚŚĞŶĂŵĞƐ
ŽĨƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞǁŚŽŵLJŽƵǁŽƌŬǁŝƚŚĨŽƌŵĂůůLJ
ϭϵϳ
^ŝŶĐĞ ϭϵϱϴ ƚŚĞ h^ ĞĨĞŶƐĞ ĚǀĂŶĐĞĚZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ WƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ŐĞŶĐLJͶŬŶŽǁŶ ĂƐZW ĨŽƌ ƐŚŽƌƚͶŚĂƐ ƉƵƌƐƵĞĚ ƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ďLJ ƉƌŽǀŽŬŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐŶƵŵĞƌŽƵƐ ŵĂũŽƌ ŝŶǀĞŶƟŽŶƐ ƚŚĂƚ ŚĂǀĞůĞĚ ƚŽ ƐƵďƐƚĂŶƟĂů ŐůŽďĂů ďĞŶĞĮƚ dŚĞƐĞŝŶǀĞŶƟŽŶƐŚĂǀĞ ůĞĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌůĚǁŝĚĞ ŶƚĞƌŶĞƚ ĐŽŵƉƵƚĞƌƐƚŚĂƚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŚƵŵĂŶ ƐƉĞĞĐŚ ƌĂĚĂƌƐLJƐƚĞŵƐ ŵĞŵŽƌLJ ƐŚĂƉĞĚ ĂůůŽLJƐ ŐůŽďĂůƉŽƐŝƟŽŶŝŶŐ ƐĂƚĞůůŝƚĞƐ W^Ϳ ĂŝƌĐƌĂŌƐƚĞĂůƚŚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ yͲƌĂLJ ůĂƐĞƌƐ ŵŽďŝůĞƌŽďŽƚƐĂŶĚŵŽƌĞůƚŚŽƵŐŚ Ă ĨĞĚĞƌĂů ĂŐĞŶĐLJ ZW Ɛ
ůŽŶŐƚƌĂĐŬƌĞĐŽƌĚŽīĞƌƐŵĂŶLJůĞƐƐŽŶƐĨŽƌĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐǁŚŽƐĞĞŬ ƚŽďƵŝůĚ ƚŚĞŝƌŽǁŶƉƌĂĐƟĐĞ ŽĨ ĚŝƐƌƵƉƟǀĞ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ^ĞǀĞŶŽĨ ZW Ɛ ŵŽƐƚ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ůĞƐƐŽŶƐ ĂƌĞĚŝƐĐƵƐƐĞĚŚĞƌĞ
1 Organize by grand challengedŚĞĐůĂƐƐŝĐŵŽĚĞůŽĨ ĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ZΘͿ ŝƐ ƚŽ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞĂƌŽƵŶĚ Ă ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ĚŝǀŝƐŝŽŶ Žƌ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌďĂƐĞKǀĞƌƟŵĞƚŚĞƐĞƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞƐƌĞŝŶĨŽƌĐĞĞdžŝƐƟŶŐƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐZWŝŶƐƚĞĂĚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞƐĂƌŽƵŶĚŬĞLJĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂƌĞĂƐŝŶƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂŶĚƐĐŝĞŶĐĞǁŚŝĐŚƉƌĞƐĞŶƚŐƌĂŶĚ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐ ƌĂŶĚ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚƵŶƐŽůǀĞĚƉƌŽďůĞŵƐĂŶĚ ĞĂĐŚ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ ĐĂŶ ďĞĐŽŵĞ ĂƐĞƉĂƌĂƚĞ ƉůĂƞŽƌŵ ƚŚĂƚ ƐƵƐƚĂŝŶƐ ĂŶĚƵŶŝƚĞƐŵƵůƟƉůĞƐŵĂůůĞƌƐŽůƵƟŽŶĂƌĞĂƐ
2 Maintain short contractshŶůŝŬĞ ŵŽƐƚ ZΘ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐ ZWŚŝƌĞƐ Ăůů ŝƚƐ ĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌƐ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐŽŶƐŚŽƌƚĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚƐƚŚĂƚĂǀĞƌĂŐĞϯͲϰ LJĞĂƌƐ ŝŶ ůĞŶŐƚŚ ^ŚŽƌƚ ĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚƐĞŶƐƵƌĞ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ƐĞƚ ĂĚĞĂĚůŝŶĞ ĨŽƌĞĂĐŚƉĞƌƐŽŶ Ɛ ǀŝƐŝŽŶdŚĞƌĞŝƐĂůǁĂLJƐĂĐŽŶƟŶƵĂůĐLJĐůĞŽĨƌĞƐƵůƚƐŽŶĂŐƌĂŶĚƐĐĂůĞ ŚŽƌƚĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƚƐĂůƐŽƌĞŐƵůĂƌůLJŝŶĨƵƐĞĨƌĞƐŚĞŶĞƌŐLJŝŶƚŽĂŐƌŽƵƉďƌŝŶŐŝŶŐ
CASE STUDY | DARPArsquos lessons for industry
ŶĞǁ ǀŝĞǁƐ ĂŶĚ ŝĚĞĂƐ ŝŶƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĞdžŝƐƟŶŐŵŝdžZWƚŚĞŶƌĞůŝĞƐŽŶŝƚƐĂůƵŵŶŝďĂƐĞĂŶĚƐƵƉƉŽƌƚƐƚĂīƚŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƚŚĞĂŐĞŶĐLJ ƐƐƚĂďŝůŝƚLJ ĂŶĚ ŵĞŵŽƌLJ ůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵ ǁŚŝĐŚŚĂƐǁŽƌŬĞĚƌĞŵĂƌŬĂďůLJǁĞůůŽǀĞƌƟŵĞ
3 Live the missionZW ůŝǀĞƐ ŐƌĂŶĚůLJ ƚƐ ƌĞƉƵƚĂƟŽŶ ŚĂƐƐƉĂǁŶĞĚ ŵƵůƟƉůĞ ƐŝƐƚĞƌ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚ ƐĞĞŬ ƚŽ ƌĞƉůŝĐĂƚĞ ŝƚƐ ĨŽƌŵƵůĂ ĨŽƌƐƵĐĐĞƐƐ dŚĞƐĞ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞ ƚŚĞ ŶƚĞůůŝŐĞŶĐĞĚǀĂŶĐĞĚ ZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ WƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ĐƟǀŝƚLJZWͿ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ŝƌĞĐƚŽƌ ŽĨ EĂƟŽŶĂůŶƚĞůůŝŐĞŶĐĞ ƚŚĞ ĚǀĂŶĐĞĚ ZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚWƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ŐĞŶĐLJ ŝŶ ŶĞƌŐLJ ZWͲͿ ŝŶƚŚĞh^ĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚŽĨŶĞƌŐLJ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŽŵĞůĂŶĚ ^ĞĐƵƌŝƚLJ ĚǀĂŶĐĞĚ ZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚWƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ŐĞŶĐLJ ^ZWͿ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ h^ĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ ŽŵĞůĂŶĚ ^ĞĐƵƌŝƚLJgtŝŬĞ ZW ƐŵĂƌƚ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐ ĐŽŶƟŶƵĂůůLJĞǀĂŶŐĞůŝnjĞŚŽǁƚŚĞŝƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĚĞƐŝƌĞƐƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŽƌƐĂŶĚŵŽƌĞŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚůLJ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐƚŚĞŵǁŝƚŚƚŚĞĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂŶĚŝŶĐĞŶƟǀĞƐ ƚŽ ĐŽŶƟŶƵĂůůLJ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƚĞ ĂŶĚƚĂŬĞƌŝƐŬƐ
ϭϵϴ
4 Operate as an open networkampŽƌ ŵŽƐƚ ŐƌŽƵƉƐ ƚŚĞ ƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚ ŚŝƌŝŶŐƉƌŽĐĞĚƵƌĞ ŝƐ ƚŽ ƌĞĐƌƵŝƚ ƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐ ƚĂůĞŶƚĨƌŽŵĂƐŵĂůůĐŝƌĐůĞŽĨƚŚĞƚŽƉƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐĂŶĚ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ůĂďƐ ZW ĞdžƉĂŶĚƐ ƚŚŝƐƉƌĂĐƟĐĞĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂďůLJŶĂĚĚŝƟŽŶƚŽŚŝƌŝŶŐĨƌŽŵ ǁŝƚŚŝŶ ZW ĐĂƐƚƐ ŝƚƐ ŚŝƌŝŶŐ ŶĞƚǁŝĚĞŽƵƚƐŝĚĞƚŚĞƵƐƵĂůƐƉŚĞƌĞƐŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐƟĞƌ ƐĐŚŽŽůƐ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶ ƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ůĂďƐ ŶŽŶƉƌŽĮƚƐ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐĞLJŽŶĚũŽďĐĂŶĚŝĚĂƚĞƐZW Ɛ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ŝƐ ĂůƐŽ Ă ƐŽƵƌĐĞ ĨŽƌƉƌŽũĞĐƚĂĚǀŝƐŽƌƐƉƌŽũĞĐƚďŝĚƐƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJƌĞǀŝĞǁƐ ĂŶĚ ŵŽƌĞ dŚĞ ĂŐĞŶĐLJ ƌĞůŝĞƐŚĞĂǀŝůLJŽŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĞĨĞƌƌĂůƐĂŶĚŝƚƐƟŐŚƚůLJŬŶŝƚ ĂůƵŵŶŝ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ ƚŽ ŵŽǀĞ ŝĚĞĂƐĂŶĚƉĞŽƉůĞďŽƚŚŝŶƚŽĂŶĚŽƵƚŽĨZW5 Hire for visionampĞǁƌĞƐƵŵĞƐĐŽŶƚĂŝŶŝĚĞĂƐZWƐŬŝƉƐƚŚĞ ƵƐƵĂů ĐĂƐĞ ŝŶƚĞƌǀŝĞǁƐ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƐƚŚĞƉĞƌƐŽŶ ƐǀŝƐŝŽŶĂŶĚǁĂLJƐŽĨĂĐŚŝĞǀŝŶŐŝƚ ƚ ƚŚĞ ŵŝŶŝŵƵŵ ZWΖƐ ŚŝƌŝŶŐĐŽŶǀĞƌƐĂƟŽŶƐ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ Ă ƐŽƵƌĐĞ ŽĨ ŶŽǀĞůŝĚĞĂƐƚ ŝƚƐďĞƐƚZWŐĂŝŶƐƐŽŵĞŽŶĞǁŚŽ ĂůƌĞĂĚLJ ďƌŝŶŐƐ Ă ƐĞŶƐĞ ŽĨ ŵŝƐƐŝŽŶ
ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶͶĐŽƵƉůĞĚ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞĂďŝůŝƟĞƐƚŽƚĂŬĞƚŚĂƚŵŝƐƐŝŽŶĨŽƌǁĂƌĚŝŶĂĐŽŵƉƌĞƐƐĞĚƟŵĞĨƌĂŵĞ6 Sharpen vision at the startĐƌŽƐƐǀĂƌŝŽƵƐĂŐĞŶĐLJĞƌĂƐZWƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐŚĂǀĞƌĞůŝĞĚĐŽŶƐŝƐƚĞŶƚůLJŽŶƚǁŽƉƌŝŵĂƌLJŵĞĐŚĂŶŝƐŵƐĨŽƌƐŚĂƌƉĞŶŝŶŐƚŚĞŝƌƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJǀŝƐŝŽŶƐďĞĨŽƌĞƚŚĞƐĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐĂƌĞĂŶŶŽƵŶĐĞĚƉƵďůŝĐůLJ ĂŶĚŽƉĞŶĞĚ ĨŽƌŵĂůůLJƚŽ ďŝĚ dŚĞ ƚǁŽ ŵĞĐŚĂŶŝƐŵƐ ĂƌĞ ĞdžƉĞƌƚǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽŽĨͲŽĨͲĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƐ ĂŶĚƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ĂƌĞ ƚƌƵƐƚĞĚ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞƟŵĞƚŽŐĞƚƚŚĞŝƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƌŝŐŚƚdžƉĞƌƚǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƐĂƌĞ ŝŶǀŝƚĞͲŽŶůLJ ƐŵĂůů
ŐƌŽƵƉ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐ ĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ƚŽ ŐĂƚŚĞƌĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬŽŶĂŶĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐŽƌƉĂƌƟĂůǀŝƐŝŽŶĨƌŽŵƚŚĞ ƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƟĞƐWƌŽŽĨͲŽĨͲĐŽŶĐĞƉƚƐ ĂƌĞ ĚŝƌĞĐƚĞĚ ĨĞĂƐŝďŝůŝƚLJ ƐƚƵĚŝĞƐƚŚĂƚ ƚLJƉŝĐĂůůLJ ƌĞƐƵůƚ ŝŶ ďƌŝĞĨ ƌĞƉŽƌƚƐ ŽƌĚĞŵŽƐdŚĞĂŝŵ ŝƐ ƚŽƉƌĞͲƚĞƐƚĂǀŝƐŝŽŶŽƌǀĂůŝĚĂƚĞĂƉŽƐƐŝďůĞƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂƌĞĂďĞĨŽƌĞĨƵƌƚŚĞƌ ĂĐƟŽŶ LJ ĂĚŽƉƟŶŐ ƚŚĞƐĞ ƚǁŽŵĞĐŚĂŶŝƐŵƐ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ ǁŽƵůĚ ŐĂŝŶ ĨĂƐƚĂŶĚ ĂīŽƌĚĂďůĞ ŝŶƉƵƚ ŝŶƚŽ ƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐ ďŝŐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ
7 Keep a short decision chainZWĚŽĞƐŶŽƚŚĂǀĞĂƐƚĂŐĞͲŐĂƚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐǁŝƚŚŵƵůƟƉůĞƉŚĂƐĞƐĨŽƌŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƐdŚĞƌĞĂƌĞŶŽĞǀĂůƵĂƟŽŶĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĞƐŽƌĞdžƚĞƌŶĂůƉĞĞƌ ƌĞǀŝĞǁƐ ŝŶ ƉůĂĐĞ ǁŚŝĐŚ ŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐĞƐŵŽƌĞƉĞŽƉůĞƚŽǀĞƚŽĂƉŽƐƐŝďůĞƌŝƐŬLJŝĚĞĂŶƐƚĞĂĚ ĞĂĐŚ ZW ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌŬŶŽǁƐ ƚŚĂƚ ŚŝƐ Žƌ ŚĞƌ ŽĸĐĞ ĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŶ ƵůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ ƚŚĞ ĂŐĞŶĐLJ ĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌŵĂŬĞƐ ƚŚĞ ĮŶĂů ĐĂůů ŽŶ Ă ŶĞǁ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵǀŝƐŝŽŶ ZW ĂůƵŵŶŝ ĨĞĞů ƐƚƌŽŶŐůLJ ƚŚĂƚƚŚŝƐƐŚŽƌƚĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶĐŚĂŝŶŝƐƚŚĞƌĞĂƐŽŶĨŽƌƚŚĞĂŐĞŶĐLJ ƐƐƵĐĐĞƐƐ ŝŵŝůĂƌůLJ ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐƐŚŽƵůĚĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂƐĞƉĂƌĂƚĞĂƉƉƌŽǀĂůƚƌĂĐŬĨŽƌ ŝƚƐ ƌĂĚŝĐĂů ŝĚĞĂƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ǁŽƵůĚ ĂůůŽǁŵŽƌĞĞĂƌůLJǁŝŶŶĞƌƐƚŽŇŽƵƌŝƐŚǁŝƚŚŝŶ
ϭϵϵ
ƐƚĂďůŝƐŚŝŶŐǀŝƐŝŽŶŝŵƉŽƐĞƐŐƌĞĂƚĚĞŵĂŶĚƐŽŶŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚďƵƚŵĞĞƟŶŐƚŚĞĚĞŵĂŶĚƐ
ĐĂŶƉƌŽĚƵĐĞĂĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞƌĞŶĂŝƐƐĂŶĐĞ ͶRichard N FosterŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĞdžƉĞƌƚ
ƵƐŝŶĞƐƐtĞĞŬĂƌƟĐůĞϭϵϴϮͿ
tŚĞƌĞƚŚĞƌĞŝƐŶŽǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŚĞƉĞŽƉůĞƉĞƌŝƐŚ ͶKing James BibleWƌŽǀĞƌďƐϮϵϭϴ
200
VISIONChaptER 7
Shortcuts
Phase V Vision 201
Vision Statement 203
Case study DARPA visions 212
DARPA Hard Test 213
Case study DARPA criteria 227
Case study EPCOT vision 228
7H[OAumlUKLYZ 230
201
With a team in place your next step is to turn your big idea into a vision that will excite more people mobilize further action and ultimately secure funding and support as part of a larger campaign
ǀŝƐŝŽŶƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐ ƚŚĞĚĞƐƟŶĂƟŽŶ ĨŽƌ ĂŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶũŽƵƌŶĞLJ ĂůůŽǁŝŶŐLJŽƵƚŽƉůĂŶƚŚĞ ƌŽƵƚĞ ĂŚĞĂĚ ^ŝŵƉůLJ ƉƵƚ ŝƚ ŚĞůƉƐƚŽŬŶŽǁǁŚĞƌĞ ƚŽŐŽŶĞdžƚ ĂŶĚĂǀŝƐŝŽŶŽƌŝĞŶƚƐĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞsŝƐŝŽŶƐŵĂLJŽƉĞƌĂƚĞĂƚĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚůĞǀĞůƐ
ǁŝƚŚŝŶĂŶŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐƉĞĐŝĮĐĂůůLJĂƚƚŚĞĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ƵŶŝƚ Žƌ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƉƌŽũĞĐƚůĞǀĞůƐdŚĞƐĞůĞǀĞůƐĂůůŚĞůƉƉĞŽƉůĞŝŵĂŐŝŶĞĂĨƵƚƵƌĞƐƚĂƚĞŽĨƚŚĞŝƌŝĚĞĂĂŶĚĞĂĐŚůĞǀĞůĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞƐƚŚĞĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚŝŶŐƌĂŶŐĞŽĨŝŵƉĂĐƚsŝƐŝŽŶƐǁŽƌŬďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞLJĚŝƌĞĐƚŐƌŽƵƉ
ĞŶĞƌŐLJ ƚŽǁĂƌĚ ĐƌĞĂƟŶŐ ƐŽŵĞƚŚŝŶŐ ŶĞǁtŝƚŚŽƵƚĂǀŝƐŝŽŶŐƌŽƵƉƐĐĂŶƐƵƌǀŝǀĞďƵƚƚŚĞLJ ĐĂŶƚ ĞdžƉĞĐƚ ƚŽ ĂĐŚŝĞǀĞ ŐƌĞĂƚŶĞƐƐDĂŶLJ ŬƐ ĂŶĚ ĞdžƉĞƌƚƐ ŽīĞƌ ĂĚǀŝĐĞĂďŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŽĨ ĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶŝŶŐ dŚĞLJŐĞŶĞƌĂůůLJ ĂŐƌĞĞ ƚŚĂƚ ŐŽŽĚ ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ĂƌĞĂŵďŝƟŽƵƐ ŝĚĞĂůŝƐƟĐ ĐƌĞĚŝďůĞ ƌĞĂůŝƐƟĐĂƩĂŝŶĂďůĞ ƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚ ĂŶĚ ƚĂŶŐŝďůĞͶĂƚ ĂŵŝŶŝŵƵŵ
Phase V VIsion
DĂŶLJ ĂůƐŽ ƵŶĚĞƌƐĐŽƌĞ ƚŚĂƚ Ă ŐŽŽĚǀŝƐŝŽŶ ŝƐ ƐŝŵƉůĞ gtŝŬĞ ĂŶ ĂĚǀĞƌƟƐŝŶŐƐůŽŐĂŶ Ă ŐŽŽĚ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƐŚŽƵůĚ ďĞ ĞĂƐLJ ƚŽƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚ ĂŶĚ ĞĂƐLJ ƚŽ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚĞsŝƐŝŽŶƐƉƌŽǀŝĚĞ ƚŚĞŐƵŝĚĞůŝŶĞƐ ĨŽƌĂĐƟŽŶĂŶĚĐŽŵŵŝƚŵĞŶƚůůĮŶĞƚŽƐĂLJ ĂŶĚŚĂƌĚƚŽĚŽdŚƌĞĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐǁŝůů ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵĮŶĚĂŶĚ
ĨŽƌŵLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǀŝƐŝŽŶƐͻ sŝƐŝŽŶ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚͻ ZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚͻ WĂƚŚĮŶĚĞƌƐ
202
PHASE V VISIONdŚĞ ĮŌŚ ƉŚĂƐĞ ƐŚĂƌƉĞŶƐ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ƐǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƐŽ ƚŚĂƚ ŝƚ ŵĂLJ ƚĂŬĞ ŽŶ Ă ůŝĨĞ ŽĨŝƚƐ ŽǁŶ ĂŶĚ ŐƵŝĚĞ ĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ Ɛ ĂĐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ
dŚĞsŝƐŝŽŶ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚŚĞůƉƐLJŽƵƚĞůůLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂĂƐĂĐůĞĂƌĂŶĚĐŽŶĐŝƐĞƐƵŵŵĂƌLJїƉĂŐĞϮϬϯ
dŚĞZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŽĨLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶїƉĂŐĞϮϭϯ
WĂƚŚĮŶĚĞƌƐĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞƐĂŶŝĚĞĂ ƐďĞƐƚƉĂƚŚƚŚƌŽƵŐŚLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶŽƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬїƉĂŐĞϮϯϬ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŚĂƚĚƌŝǀĞthis phaseͻ tŚĂƚŝƐĂŐŽŽĚǀŝƐŝŽŶͻ ŽǁĚŽǁĞŬŶŽǁǁĞŚĂǀĞĂ
ŐŽŽĚǀŝƐŝŽŶͻ ŽǁĚŽǁĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂŐŽŽĚ
ǀŝƐŝŽŶͻ tŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞďĞƐƚǁĂLJƚŽ
ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƚĞŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŽŽƚŚĞƌƐ
203
A Vision Statement provides a short vivid description of your idea in order to inspire energize and help others create a mental picture of your target future opportunity
When to use itͻ dŽƋƵŝĐŬůLJĂŶĚƐŝŵƉůLJĚĞĮŶĞĂ
ŶĞǁŝĚĞĂŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐŽůƵƟŽŶŽƌďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJĂŶĚŝƚƐĚĞƐŝƌĞĚŽƵƚĐŽŵĞ
ͻ dŽĐŽŶĚĞŶƐĞƚŚĞĞƐƐĞŶƟĂůƐŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂŝŶĂŽŶĞͲŵŝŶƵƚĞƐƚŽƌLJ
ͻ dŽƌĞŵŝŶĚLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵĂŶĚƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐǁŚĂƚLJŽƵĂƌĞƚƌLJŝŶŐƚŽďƵŝůĚ
Why itrsquos helpfulgtŝŬĞ ƚŚĞ ƉŽƉƵůĂƌ ĞůĞǀĂƚŽƌ ƉŝƚĐŚ ĨŽƌ ŶĞǁďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ǀĞŶƚƵƌĞƐ Ă ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ ŝƐĂ ĐŽŶĐŝƐĞ ĐĂƌĞĨƵůůLJ ƉůĂŶŶĞĚ ĂŶĚ ǁĞůůͲƉƌĂĐƟĐĞĚ ƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ ĂďŽƵƚ LJŽƵƌ ĨƵƚƵƌĞŝĚĞĂƚŚĂƚĂŶLJďŽĚLJĐĂŶƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶƚǁŽŵŝŶƵƚĞƐŽƌůĞƐƐ
Vision Statement
ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ ĐƌĞĂƚĞƐ Ă ƐŝŵƉůĞ
ŵĞŵŽƌĂďůĞ ĨƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬ ĨŽƌ Ăůů LJŽƵƌƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ Ŷ Ă ĨĞǁ ǁŽƌĚƐ ŝƚĞdžƉůĂŝŶƐǁŚĞƌĞLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƚŽŐŽĂŶĚǁŚLJƐĂŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůĐŽŵƉĂƐƐƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚŚĞůƉƐ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ĂŶĚ ĞŵƉůŽLJĞĞƐ ĨŽĐƵƐƚŚĞŝƌ ĞīŽƌƚƐ Ɛ ĂŶ ĞdžƚĞƌŶĂů ĮůƚĞƌ ƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚŚĞůƉƐŝŶǀĞƐƚŽƌƐƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌƐĂŶĚŽƚŚĞƌƐŽƵƚƐŝĚĞLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŬŶŽǁǁŚĂƚ ŝƐ Žƌ ŝƐŶƚͿ ŝŶƐĐŽƉĞĨŽƌLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
What you getdŚĞ ƚĞŵƉůĂƚĞ ǁŝůů ŚĞůƉ LJŽƵ ĐƌĂŌ ĂŶĚĨƌĂŵĞ Ă ĐůĞĂƌ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ KŶĐĞĐƌĞĂƚĞĚ ƌĞŚĞĂƌƐĞ ŝƚ ƌĞŐƵůĂƌůLJ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŶƚĂŝůŽƌ ŝƚ ĂƐ ŶĞĞĚĞĚ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ ŝŶLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ
204
$
13amp
1313131313
$
amp13 13
131313
1313
13
131313 13
Letrsquos look at an exampleŶ ŝŶǀŝƚĞͲŽŶůLJ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ ǁĂƐ ŚĞůĚ ƚŽĞdžƉůŽƌĞƚŚĞΗĨƵƚƵƌĞŽĨǁŽƌŬΗŝŶϮϬϯϬKŶĞƚĞĂŵǁĂƐĐŽŵƉƌŝƐĞĚŽĨĂŶZΘĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌ ƐŽŌǁĂƌĞ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌ ƚƌĂŝŶŝŶŐ ƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝƐƚĂŶĚ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌͶĂůů ĨƌŽŵ ĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐ dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƵƐĞĚ ƚŚĞĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ƚŽ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉ Ă ƐŚĂƌĞĚƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐĂďŽƵƚĨƵƚƵƌĞǁŽƌŬŶĞĞĚƐƐƚŚĞŝƌƉƌŽƉŽƐĞĚǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŚĞLJĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂ ƐŵĂƌƚĞƌǀŝƌƚƵĂůŚĞůƉĞƌ ƚŽŚĞůƉƐĞŶŝŽƌĞdžĞĐƵƟǀĞƐƐĂǀĞƟŵĞtŚŝůĞ ŶŽƚ Ă ŶĞǁ Žƌ ŶŽǀĞů ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƚŚĞ
ƚĞĂŵ ĨĞůƚ ƚŚĞ ƵƐĞƌ ŶĞĞĚ ǁĂƐ ƐƟůů ŚŝŐŚĂŶĚ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƟŵŝŶŐ ǁĂƐ ŶŽǁ ƌŝŐŚƚ KŶĞƌĞĂƐŽŶ ǁĂƐ ƚŚĞ ŝŶĐƌĞĂƐŝŶŐ ĐŽŶǀĞƌŐĞŶĐĞŽĨ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐ ŝŶ ƐŽĐŝĂů ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬŝŶŐƚŽŽůƐ ůŝŶŐƵŝƐƟĐƐ ƐĞŵĂŶƟĐ ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ĂŶĚƌĞůĂƚĞĚĂƌĞĂƐǁŚŝĐŚĐŽƵůĚŽǀĞƌĐŽŵĞƚŚĞůŝŵŝƚĂƟŽŶƐŽĨƉƌŝŽƌƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐĂŶĚƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ
205
Instructionsϭ ^ƚĂƌƚďLJĚĞƐĐƌŝďŝŶŐǁŚĂƚLJŽƵǁĂŶƚ
ƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞŝŶǀĞƌLJƐŝŵƉůĞƚĞƌŵƐKƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶŝƐƚŽͺͺͺͺͺͺ dŚĞWĂƉĞƌDŽĐŬƵƉƐĂŶĚampƵƚƵƌĞƚĞůůŝŶŐŵĞƚŚŽĚƐǁŝůůŚĞůƉLJŽƵĮŶĚĂŶĚĞdžƉƌĞƐƐLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂhƐĞƚŚĞtŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐĂŶĚĂƌŬŽƌƐĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŽƐƉĞĐŝĨLJƚŚĞƵŶŝƋƵĞǀĂůƵĞŝŶLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂƌĞůĂƟǀĞƚŽĐŽŵƉĞƟŶŐƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐ
Ϯ EĞdžƚĞdžƉůĂŝŶǁŚLJLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶŝƐƚƌƵůLJǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJďLJƐƚĂƟŶŐƚŝƐĂůŵŽƐƚŝŵƉŽƐƐŝďůĞƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞďĞĐĂƵƐĞͺͺͺͺͺͺ dŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƐĂŶĚtŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƐǁŝůůŽīĞƌŚŝŶƚƐŽŶLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵ ƐǀŝĞǁŽĨƚŚĞĞdžŝƐƟŶŐĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞĂŶĚƐƚĂƚĞŽĨƚŚĞĮĞůĚdŚĞĂƌŬŽƌƐĞŵĞƚŚŽĚǁŝůůĂůƐŽŚĞůƉƚŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJĞdžŝƐƟŶŐƉƌĞĐŽŶĐĞƉƟŽŶƐ
ϯ džƉůĂŝŶǁŚLJLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƐŚŽƵůĚďĞƉƵƌƐƵĞĚŶŽǁďLJƐƚĂƟŶŐdŚĞƟŵŝŶŐŝƐƌŝŐŚƚƚŽĚĂLJĚƵĞƚŽͺͺͺͺͺͺ dŚĞWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐĂŶĚĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐǁŝůůŚĞůƉLJŽƵũƵƐƟĨLJƚŚĞŶĞdžƚƐƚĞƉŝŶƚŚĞŝĚĞĂ ƐƟŵĞůŝŶĞ
ϰ ƌŝĞŇLJĞdžƉůĂŝŶƚŚĞďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚŽƌƉƌĞĐƵƌƐŽƌƐĨŽƌLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂďLJƐƚĂƟŶŐWƌĞĐĞĚĞŶƚƐĨŽƌƚŚŝƐŝĚĞĂŝŶĐůƵĚĞͺͺͺͺͺͺ dŚĞWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐĂŶĚĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĐĂŶŚĞůƉLJŽƵƵŶĐŽǀĞƌĂŶLJƌĞůĞǀĂŶƚŚŝƐƚŽƌLJ
ϱ DĂŬĞLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶĂĐƟǀĞĂŶĚĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟǀĞďLJƐƚĂƟŶŐϮͲϰƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĂŶĚŽƌƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĞƌƐLJǁŽƌŬŝŶŐǁŝƚŚͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺͺĂŶĚͺͺͺͺͺͺ dŚĞampƵƚƵƌĞhƐĞƌƐĂŶĚŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚŵĞƚŚŽĚƐĐĂŶŚĞůƉĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞǁŚŽĐŽƵůĚďĞŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚŝŶďƵŝůĚŝŶŐLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂ
ϲ ^ŚŽǁĐŽŵŵŝƚŵĞŶƚĂŶĚƐĞƚĂƟŵĞůŝŶĞďLJƐƚĂƟŶŐǁĞǁŝůůŵĂŬĞƚŚŝƐǀŝƐŝŽŶƌĞĂůŝŶͺͺͺLJĞĂƌƐ dŚĞWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐŵĞƚŚŽĚǁŝůůŚĞůƉLJŽƵŐĂƵŐĞƉĂƐƚƟŵĞĨƌĂŵĞƐƚŽĞƐƟŵĂƚĞĂĨƵƚƵƌĞƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŚŽƌŝnjŽŶ
ϳ gtĂƐƚůLJ ĞdžƉůĂŝŶŚŽǁLJŽƵǁŝůůŵĂŬĞLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂŚĂƉƉĞŶďLJƐƚĂƟŶŐďLJͺͺͺͺͺ dŚĞŚĂŶŐĞWĂƚŚŵĞƚŚŽĚǁŝůůůĞƚLJŽƵŶĂŵĞƚǁŽďŝŐŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐƚŚĂƚĞdžƚĞŶĚĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJĨƌŽŵƚŽĚĂLJ
rarr ^ĞĞ ƚŚĞ ĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚ ĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ ĨŽƌ ĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐ ĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
206
$
amp1313
13 13
2 We then use the dimensions in the
Context Maps to explain what made our
idea such a bold opportunity
3 Looking at the Janus Cones help us understand why our vision should exist now
4 We decide to name
only two popular past
examples from our
Progression Curves
analysis to not
overwhelm our users
5 We name four
companies which
would be ideal partners for us two
of which are already
working with us on other projects
6 The Progression
Curves help us estimate
a realistic date
7 We need to discuss more
which two big steps from our
Change Path will show we
are directly on track to
achieve this big vision
1 We start by referring back to the
story we told in the Futuretelling
exercise about our idea The Dark
Horse method lets us focus on what
is essential to our innovation
207
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ ŽǁǁŽƵůĚLJŽƵƌĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŽƌ
ŝŶǀĞƐƚŽƌĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂtŚĂƚƉŚƌĂƐĞƐǁŽƵůĚƚŚĞLJƵƐĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚůLJŝŶLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ
ͻ ĨĂŶŽƚŚĞƌƚĞĂŵŽƌĐŽŵƉĂŶLJŚĂƐĂƩĞŵƉƚĞĚĂǀĞƌƐŝŽŶŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂŝŶƚŚĞƉĂƐƚǁŚĂƚĞůĞŵĞŶƚƐŽƌĐŝƌĐƵŵƐƚĂŶĐĞƐŚĂǀĞĐŚĂŶŐĞĚƐŝŶĐĞƚŚĞŶ
ͻ tŚŝĐŚƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐĂďŽƵƚLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂĂƌĞƚŚĞŵŽƐƚĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌƚŽLJŽƵƌƵƐĞƌƐtŚLJŽƚŚĞƐĞĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐŚĞůƉŽƌŚŝŶĚĞƌLJŽƵƌƉƌŽƉŽƐĞĚǀŝƐŝŽŶ
Drawing insights amp implicationsŶĂƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟŽŶƚŚĞǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉƚĞĂŵƚĞƐƚĞĚƚŚĞŝƌŝŶĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶǁŝƚŚƐĞǀĞƌĂů ŽƚŚĞƌ ĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐ dŚĞ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬǁĂƐƵƐĞĨƵůampŝƌƐƚ ƚŚĞ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ ĨĞůƚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ ŝŶŝƟĂů
ƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ ǁĂƐ ƐůŝŐŚƚůLJ ǁŽƌĚLJ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞLJďĞĐĂŵĞ ůŽƐƚ ŝŶ ŇƵīLJ ǁŽƌĚƐ ƐƵĐŚ ĂƐƚƌĂŶƐĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ Ŷ ƚŚĞ ŶĞdžƚ ŝƚĞƌĂƟŽŶƚŚĞƚĞĂŵĚĞĐŝĚĞĚƚŽƌĞŵŽǀĞƚŚĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJũĂƌŐŽŶ ĂŶĚ ƵƐĞ ƐŝŵƉůĞƌ ůĂŶŐƵĂŐĞ ƚŽĞdžƉůĂŝŶƚŚĞĐŽƌĞŝĚĞĂĨŽƌĞǀĞƌLJŽŶĞ ƐĞĐŽŶĚ ƌĞĂĐƟŽŶ ǁĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ
ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ ůŝŬĞĚ ŚĞĂƌŝŶŐ ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐ ĚĞƚĂŝůƐ^ĂLJŝŶŐ DŝĐƌŽƐŽŌ ŝŶƐƚĞĂĚ ŽĨ ůĂƌŐĞƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ŐĂǀĞ ŵŽƌĞĐƌĞĚŝďŝůŝƚLJ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ŝƚƐŚŽǁĞĚ ĂůŝŐŶŵĞŶƚǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ ZΘ ĞīŽƌƚƐŽĨ Ă ƌĞĂů ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ĂůƐŽĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚ ƌĞƉůĂĐŝŶŐ ƉĞƌƐŽŶĂů ĚŝŐŝƚĂůĂƐƐŝƐƚĂŶƚƐ ǁŝƚŚ Ă ŵŽƌĞ ƐƉĞĐŝĮĐ ĂŶĚĂĐĐĞƐƐŝďůĞ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ƐƵĐŚ ĂƐ ůĂĐŬďĞƌƌLJƐŵĂƌƚƉŚŽŶĞ ǁŚŝĐŚǁŽƵůĚĂůƐŽŚĞůƉƚŚĞŝƌĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚƚŚĞƉĞƌƐŝƐƚĞŶƚƵƐĞƌŶĞĞĚĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌǀŝƐŝŽŶ
dŚŝƌĚƚŚĞŝƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĚƋƵŝĐŬŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚŝŶĂƉŽƐƐŝďůĞƉĂƚŚĨŽƌǁĂƌĚdŚĞŝƌ ĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞ ǁĂŶƚĞĚ ƚŽ ŚĞĂƌ ǁŚĂƚƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ǁĂƐ ƐĞƌŝŽƵƐůLJ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ ƚŽ ĚŽŶĞdžƚ dŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂĚ ƐƉĞŶƚ ŵŽƌĞ ƟŵĞǁŽƌĚƐŵŝƚŚŝŶŐƚŚĞĮƌƐƚĚƌĂŌŽĨƚŚĞŝƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚƚŚĂƚƚŚĞLJŵŝƐƐĞĚǀĂůƵĂďůĞƟŵĞƚŽ ĂŐƌĞĞ ŽŶ ŶĞdžƚ ƐƚĞƉƐ dŚĞ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐƌĞĂůŝnjĞĚĂŐŽŽĚǀŝƐŝŽŶŶĞĞĚĞĚƚŽĞŶĚŽŶĂĐůĞĂƌĐĂůůƚŽĂĐƟŽŶƐŽƚŚĂƚŝƚĐŽƵůĚŚĞůƉŐĞŶĞƌĂƚĞĐŽŵŵŝƚŵĞŶƚ
208amp
13(
1313131313
$
amp13 13
131313
1313
13
131313 13
Once we hooked our
audiencersquos interest
they wanted to
know what we
would do next so
our team had some
more work to do to
complete the vision
statement
Our audience quickly reacted to the
long and geeky description of our
vision so we needed to remove jargon
and simplify it
We also learned that
people liked hearing
specific companies
which added more
validity to our
crazy idea
ϮϬϵ
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ^ŽŵĞŽĨƚŚĞďĞƐƚƐŽƵƌĐĞƐƚŽƐƉĂƌŬ
ŶĞǁǀŝƐŝŽŶƐĂƌĞLJŽƵƌŝŵĂŐŝŶĂƟŽŶƐĐŝĞŶĐĞĮĐƟŽŶƐƚŽƌŝĞƐĂŶĚƚƌŝƉƐƚŽŽƚŚĞƌůĂďƐĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐŽƌĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐͶǁŚĂƚĞǀĞƌƐŚŽǁƐĂŶĞǁƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞŽƌƉƌĂĐƟĐĞ
ͻ ^ĞŶƚĞŶĐĞƐϮͲϯŝŶƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚĂĚĚƌĞƐƐƚŽĚĂLJ ƐƐŝƚƵĂƟŽŶdŚĞůĂƐƚƐĞŶƚĞŶĐĞĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞƐƚŚĞĨƵƚƵƌĞǀŝĞǁ
ͻ ǀŽŝĚƉůĂƟƚƵĚĞƐĂŶĚŐĞŶĞƌŝĐƉŚƌĂƐĞƐŝŶLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶǁŚŝĐŚǁŝůůƚĞŶĚƚŽďŽƌĞŽƚŚĞƌƐĂŶĚŽīĞƌĂƉŽŽƌƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐŐƵŝĚĞĨŽƌŵĞĂŶŝŶŐĨƵůĂĐƟŽŶ
ͻ ZĞĨƌĂŝŶĨƌŽŵƚĂŝůŽƌŝŶŐLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶĨŽƌLJŽƵƌĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌŶŽǁďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŽĚĂLJ ƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌǁŝůůůŝŬĞůLJďĞĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚĨƌŽŵƚŽŵŽƌƌŽǁ ƐĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ
ͻ dŚĞĨĞǁĞƌǁŽƌĚƐLJŽƵƵƐĞƚŚĞƐƚƌŽŶŐĞƌĂŶĚŵŽƌĞŵĞŵŽƌĂďůĞLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶǁŝůůďĞĐŽŵĞ
ͻ ƌĞĂůůLJƌĂĚŝĐĂůǀŝƐŝŽŶƐŚŽƵůĚďĞƌŝĚŝĐƵůŽƵƐŽƌƉƌĞƉŽƐƚĞƌŽƵƐŝŶƐŽŵĞǁĂLJƚŽĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƚŚĞŶŽƌŵdŚĂƚ ƐǁŚLJƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĨĞĞůƐĂůŵŽƐƚŝŵƉŽƐƐŝďůĞ
ZampgtdKEWhy is your teamrsquos
ǀŝƐŝŽŶŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƟŶŐƚŽLJŽƵ
210
Additional examples
ampŝŶŶŝƐŚƚĞĂŵƚĞƐƚĞĚĂƌŽƵŐŚǀŝƐŝŽŶĨŽƌĂŶŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĐŽŶƐŽƌƟƵŵǁŝƚŚĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐ ƋƵŝĐŬůLJ ůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐ ďĞƩĞƌ ĂŶĚŵŽƌĞ ĐŽŶĐƌĞƚĞ ǁĂLJƐ ƚŽ ƚĞůůƚŚĞŝƌƐƚŽƌLJ
Ŷ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJ ƚĞĂŵ ƚĞƐƚĞĚ Ă ƌŽƵŐŚǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĨŽƌ Ă ŶĞǁ ƐŽůŝĚĞƌ ƵŶŝĨŽƌŵ ƚŚĂƚŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƚĞĚƚŚĞůĂƚĞƐƚƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐŝŶĨĂƐŚŝŽŶƐĞŶƐŽƌƐ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ƉŽǁĞƌ ƚŚĂƚǁĂƐƚƌƵůLJĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚĨŽƌƚŚĞLJŽƵŶŐŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton211
1313 13
VISION STATEMENT | method worksheet
212212
^ŝŶĐĞ ϭϵϱϴ ƚŚĞ h^ ĞĨĞŶƐĞ ĚǀĂŶĐĞĚZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ WƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ŐĞŶĐLJͶŬŶŽǁŶ ĂƐZW ĨŽƌ ƐŚŽƌƚͶŚĂƐ ƉƵƌƐƵĞĚ ƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƉƌŽǀŝĚŝŶŐ Ăƚ ůĞĂƐƚ Ă ŚĂůĨͲĐĞŶƚƵƌLJ ŽĨ ƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĞĚ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞ ĂŶĚĐŽƵŶƚůĞƐƐ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞƐ ŽĨ ƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵů ĂŶĚĂůƐŽ ĨĂŝůĞĚͿ ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ ŽĨ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJͲĚƌŝǀĞŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
Augmented Cognition program Ŷ ϮϬϬϭ ZW Ɛ ƵŐŵĞŶƚĞĚ ŽŐŶŝƟŽŶƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚĂďŽůĚǀŝƐŝŽŶƚŚĂƚůĂŝĚƚŚĞŐƌŽƵŶĚǁŽƌŬĨŽƌƚŚĞĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐĮĞůĚŽĨĞŵƉĂƚŚĞƟĐĂǀŝŽŶŝĐƐdŚĞZWƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐƚĂƚĞĚdŚĞŐŽĂůŝƐƚŽĞdžƚĞŶĚďLJ ĂŶ ŽƌĚĞƌ ŽĨŵĂŐŶŝƚƵĚĞ ŽƌŵŽƌĞ ƚŚĞŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĐĂƉĂĐŝƚLJŽĨƚŚĞŚƵŵĂŶͲĐŽŵƉƵƚĞƌ ƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞϮϭƐƚĐĞŶƚƵƌLJǁĂƌĮŐŚƚĞƌ
^ĞǀĞƌĂůŐƌŽƵƉƐƌĞƐƉŽŶĚĞĚƚŽƚŚĞZWĐĂůůŶƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ ŽĞŝŶŐWŚĂŶƚŽŵtŽƌŬƐďƵŝůƚ Ă ŶĞǁ ƚLJƉĞ ŽĨ ŚĞůŵĞƚ ŝŶ ǁŚŝĐŚƚŚĞƉŝůŽƚďĞĐŽŵĞƐĂƉĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞĂǀŝŽŶŝĐƐƐLJƐƚĞŵŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŶŐĞůĞĐƚƌŝĐĂůůLJǁŝƚŚŚŝƐŽƌŚĞƌĂŝƌĐƌĂŌ
Legged Squad Support SystemƐ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ZW Ɛ gtĞŐŐĞĚ^ƋƵĂĚ ^ƵƉƉŽƌƚ ^LJƐƚĞŵ gt^ϯͿ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞĚĂǀŝƐŝŽŶŝŶϮϬϬϴĨŽƌĂŶĞǁƚLJƉĞŽĨŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJƉĂĐŬŵƵůĞdŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞĚgt^ϯ ŝƐ ĞŶǀŝƐŝŽŶĞĚ ƚŽ ĂƵŐŵĞŶƚ ƐƋƵĂĚƐďLJ ŵĂŶĞƵǀĞƌŝŶŐ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞŵ ŝŶ ĐŽŵƉůĞdžƚĞƌƌĂŝŶ ǁŚĞƌĞ ǁŚĞĞůĞĚ ƚĂĐƟĐĂů ǀĞŚŝĐůĞƐĐĂŶŶŽƚŐŽ ŽƐƚŽŶ LJŶĂŵŝĐƐ Ă h^ ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐ
ĮƌŵďƵŝůƚĂĨƵŶĐƟŽŶŝŶŐƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞĐĂůůĞĚŝŐŽŐdŚĞĮƌƐƚŽĨŝƚƐŬŝŶĚŝŐŽŐĐĂƌƌŝĞƐŚĞĂǀLJůŽĂĚƐŝŶĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚůLJ
CASE STUDY | Technology visions at DARPA
Photo Jeff Corwin Photography Boeing
Photo Boston Dynamics
213
Adapted from DARPA the DARPA Hard Test describes four qualities of a radical innovation vision far-reaching technically challenging multidisciplinary and actionable
When to use itͻ dŽĐŚĂŶŐĞƚŚĞƐƚĂƚĞŽĨƚŚĞĮĞůĚďLJ
ĂŶŽƌĚĞƌŽĨŵĂŐŶŝƚƵĚĞͻ dŽĮŶĚǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJŝĚĞĂƐƚŚĂƚŝĨƚŚĞLJ
ĐŽƵůĚƐƵĐĐĞĞĚǁŽƵůĚďĞĂůĂƌŐĞƐƚĞƉďĞLJŽŶĚǁŚĂƚĞdžŝƐƟŶŐƐĐŝĞŶĐĞĂŶĚƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĐĂŶƉĞƌŵŝƚ
Why itrsquos helpfulZWĂƌĚǀŝƐŝŽŶŝƐĂĚĂƌŝŶŐƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ ƚŚĂƚ ĐĂŶŶŽƚ ďĞ ƐŽůǀĞĚ ĞĂƐŝůLJ ƚLJƉŝĐĂůůLJ ƌĞƋƵŝƌŝŶŐ ŶĞǁ ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ ŽƌŝŶǀĞŶƟŽŶ ƚŽ ďĞ ĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞĚ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƵŶŽƌƚŚŽĚŽdž ŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐ dŚĞƐĞ ǀŝƐŝŽŶƐĂƌĞƐĞĞŵŝŶŐůLJŝŵƉŽƐƐŝďůĞǁŚŝĐŚŝƐǁŚĂƚƵůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ ĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝnjĞƐ ƚŚĞŵ ĂƐ ƚƌƵůLJƌĂĚŝĐĂůdŚĞLJĂƌĞĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞůLJĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚƚŽďĞďŽƚŚŚŝŐŚƌŝƐŬĂŶĚŚŝŐŚƌĞǁĂƌĚtŚĞŶLJŽƵĂƉƉůLJƚŚĞZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚ
DARPA Hard Test
ƚŽLJŽƵƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂLJŽƵŐĂŝŶĂƋƵŝĐŬǁĂLJ ƚŽ ŐĂƵŐĞ ŚŽǁ ĚŝƐƌƵƉƟǀĞ LJŽƵƌ ŝĚĞĂŵĂLJŽƌŵĂLJŶŽƚͿďĞƚůĞƚƐLJŽƵƐĞĞǁŚĞƌĞƐŽŵĞ ŐĂƉƐ ĞdžŝƐƚ ĂŶĚ ŝĨ ĚĞƐŝƌĞĚ ŽīĞƌƐ ĂĐŚĂŶĐĞƚŽƐƚƌĞƚĐŚLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶĨƵƌƚŚĞƌƚŽďĞƚƌƵůLJǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJŶ ůĂLJŵĂŶ Ɛ ƚĞƌŵƐ ƚŚĞ ĨŽƵƌ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ
ƋƵĂůŝƟĞƐĂƐƐĞƐƐŚŽǁďŝŐŝƐŝƚĨĂƌͲƌĞĂĐŚŝŶŐͿŚŽǁ ƚŽ ĚŽ ŝƚ ƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůůLJ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐŝŶŐͿǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŬŶŽǁ ŵƵůƟͲĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJͿ ĂŶĚǁŚĞŶLJŽƵƐƚĂƌƚĂĐƟŽŶĂďůĞͿ
What you getzŽƵ ĞŶƐƵƌĞ ƚŚĂƚ LJŽƵƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ǀŝƐŝŽŶŝƐĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞůLJĂŶĚŐĞŶƵŝŶĞůLJƌĂĚŝĐĂůĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƐƚĂƌƚtŝƚŚƚŚĞZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚLJŽƵĂůƐŽĂƉƉůLJĂďĞŶĐŚŵĂƌŬ ƚŚĂƚŚĂƐƉƌŽǀĞŶƚŽďĞĂƐŵĂƌƚƌƵůĞŽĨƚŚƵŵďĨŽƌƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǀŝƐŝŽŶƐ
214
The notion of DARPA Hard^ŝŶĐĞ ϭϵϱϴ ƚŚĞ h^ ĞĨĞŶƐĞ ĚǀĂŶĐĞĚZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ WƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ŐĞŶĐLJͶŬŶŽǁŶĂƐ ZW ĨŽƌ ƐŚŽƌƚͶŚĂƐ ƉƵƌƐƵĞĚƌĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ hŶůŝŬĞ ŽƚŚĞƌ h^ŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚ ĂŐĞŶĐŝĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ĨƵŶĚ ƐĐŝĞŶĐĞĂŶĚĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚZWĨŽĐƵƐĞƐŽŶ ƚŚĞ ĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ ĞĚŐĞ ŽĨ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJZWŚĂƐĨƵŶĚĞĚŝĚĞĂƐƚŚĂƚŚĂǀĞůĞĚƚŽƚŚĞ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĞƚ ĂŝƌĐƌĂŌ ƐƚĞĂůƚŚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƚŚĞ ŐůŽďĂů ƉŽƐŝƟŽŶŝŶŐ ƐLJƐƚĞŵ W^ͿƵůƚƌĂƐŽƵŶĚŝŵĂŐŝŶŐĂŶĚŵŽƌĞKǀĞƌ ƚŚĞ LJĞĂƌƐ ZW ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ
ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ŚĂǀĞ ƉƵƌƐƵĞĚ ǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJ ŝĚĞĂƐƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞLJ ĐĂůů ZW ĂƌĚ dŚĞ ƚĞƌŵŝƐ ƐŚŽƌƚŚĂŶĚ ĨŽƌ ƐŽŵĞƚŚŝŶŐ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚĞdžƚƌĞŵĞůLJŚĂƌĚ ƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞůƚŚŽƵŐŚŶŽƚĞǀĞƌLJ ŝĚĞĂ ƚŚĞLJ ĨƵŶĚŵĂLJ ďĞ Ă ƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĞǀĞƌLJ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ ƐƚĂƌƚƐ ĂƐZWĂƌĚǁŝƚŚƚŚĞƉƌŽŵŝƐĞƚŽĚĞůŝǀĞƌƚƌƵůLJƌĞǀŽůƵƟŽŶĂƌLJĐĂƉĂďŝůŝƟĞƐ ZW ĂƌĚ ŝĚĞĂ ŝƐ ďŽƚŚŚŝŐŚƌŝƐŬĂŶĚŚŝŐŚƌĞǁĂƌĚ
Four vision componentsdŚŽƐĞŽƵƚƐŝĚĞZWĐĂŶĂƉƉůLJĂƐŝŵŝůĂƌƉƌŝŶĐŝƉůĞƚŽƚŚĞŝƌŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĞīŽƌƚƐtŚĂƚ
ŝƐ ƚŚĞ ĞƋƵŝǀĂůĞŶƚ ŽĨ ZWĂƌĚ ŝŶ LJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶŽǁĚŽLJŽƵŬŶŽǁǁŚĞŶLJŽƵŚĂǀĞŝĚĞĂƐƚŚĂƚŵĞƌŝƚƌĂĚŝĐĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶzŽƵĐĂŶƵƐĞƚŚĞZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚĚĂƉƚĞĚ ĨƌŽŵ ZW ƚŚĞ ZW
ĂƌĚ dĞƐƚ ŚĂƐ ĨŽƵƌ ƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĨĂƌͲƌĞĂĐŚŝŶŐ ƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůůLJ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐŝŶŐŵƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJ ĂŶĚ ĂĐƟŽŶĂďůĞ tŚŝůĞĞĂĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŵĂLJĞdžŝƐƚŝŶĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚůLJ ŝƚ ŝƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶ ƚŚĂƚ ĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞƐ ĂƌĞĂůǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJŝĚĞĂdŚĞŝĚĞĂŝƐŶŽƚũƵƐƚĂŚĂƌĚĂŶĚĐŽŵƉůĞdžƉƌŽďůĞŵƚŽĂĚĚƌĞƐƐŝƚďĞĐŽŵĞƐZWĂƌĚgtĞƚ ƐƌĞǀŝĞǁĞĂĐŚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶŶŽǁ
ampĂƌͲZĞĂĐŚŝŶŐĨĂƌͲƌĞĂĐŚŝŶŐ ŝĚĞĂŵĂLJŝŵƉĂĐƚ ŵĂŶLJ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ĞdžƚĞŶĚŝŶŐ ǁŝĚĞůLJŝŶ ŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞ ĂŶĚŽƌ ĞīĞĐƚ dŚĞƐĞ ŝĚĞĂƐĐŚĂŶŐĞƚŚĞŶĂƚƵƌĞŽĨƚŚĞŐĂŵĞĐƌĞĂƟŶŐĂ ƉĂƌĂĚŝŐŵ ƐŚŝŌ Ă ƚĞƌŵ ĐŽŝŶĞĚ ďLJƉŚŝůŽƐŽƉŚĞƌ dŚŽŵĂƐ ltƵŚŶ ŝŶ ϭϵϲϮ ampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞ ŽŶĐĞ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞĚƚŚĞ ŶĞǁ ŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶ ŵŽĚĞů ĨŽƌ ĂƚŽƵĐŚƐĐƌĞĞŶŵŽďŝůĞƉŚŽŶĞ ƚŚĞLJĐĂŶŶŽƚƌĞƚƵƌŶ ƚŽ ĂŶ ŽůĚĞƌ ǁĂLJ ŽĨ ƵƐĂŐĞ dŚĞŝĚĞĂ ĨƵŶĚĂŵĞŶƚĂůůLJ ĐŚĂŶŐĞĚ ŚŽǁ ƚŚĞLJ
ƚŚŽƵŐŚƚŵŽďŝůĞƉŚŽŶĞƐƐŚŽƵůĚǁŽƌŬ
dĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůůLJ ŚĂůůĞŶŐŝŶŐ ƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůůLJĐŚĂůůĞŶŐŝŶŐŝĚĞĂƌĞƐĞƚƐƚŚĞůŝŵŝƚƐŽĨƚŽĚĂLJ ƐŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞEĞǁŝŶǀĞŶƟŽŶƐĂŶĚƐĐŝĞŶƟĮĐĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌŝĞƐŽŌĞŶƉƵƐŚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĂŚĞĂĚƐ ǁƌŝƚĞƌ ^ŝƌ ƌƚŚƵƌ ůĂƌŬĞ ŽŶĐĞ ǁƌŽƚĞŶLJ ƐƵĸĐŝĞŶƚůLJ ĂĚǀĂŶĐĞĚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŝƐ ŝŶĚŝƐƟŶŐƵŝƐŚĂďůĞ ĨƌŽŵŵĂŐŝĐ ZWĂƌĚǀŝƐŝŽŶƐŽŌĞŶƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĂŶ ŝƌƌĞƐŝƐƟďůĞĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ ĨŽƌ ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌƐ ŶŽƚŚĞƌ ĂƐƉĞĐƚŽĨĂƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞŝƐƚŚĞŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƟŽŶŽĨĞdžŝƐƟŶŐƐLJƐƚĞŵĐŽŵƉŽŶĞŶƚƐ
DƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJŵƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJŝĚĞĂ ƚĂŬĞƐ ŵŽƌĞ ƚŚĂŶ ŽŶĞ ƉĞƌƐŽŶ ƚŽĞdžĞĐƵƚĞ ŝƚ tŚŝůĞ ƚŚĞ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶ ŵĂLJďĞ ĐŽŵƉůĞdž ĂŶĚ ĞǀĞŶ ĐŽŵƉůŝĐĂƚĞĚĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚŝŶŐƚŚĞŝĚĞĂƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĐŽŵďŝŶŝŶŐƐĞǀĞƌĂů ƉƌŽĨĞƐƐŝŽŶĂů ƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝnjĂƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚŽƌĮĞůĚƐŽĨĂĐĂĚĞŵŝĐƐƚƵĚLJ
s ĐƟŽŶĂďůĞ ĐƟŽŶĂďůĞ ŝĚĞĂƐ ĂƌĞŝŶƚĞŶĚĞĚƚŽďĞďƵŝůƚƐǀŝƐŝŽŶƐƚŚĞƐĞŝĚĞĂƐĂƌĞŵŽƌĞƚŚĂŶĨĂŶƚĂƐLJŽƌƉŽůŝƟĐĂůƌŚĞƚŽƌŝĐdŚĞLJƐŚŽƵůĚŝŶǀŽŬĞŝŵŵĞĚŝĂƚĞĂĐƟŽŶ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton215
sŝƐŝŽŶĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶ ĞĮŶŝƟŽŶ ŶĚŽĨƐĐĂůĞϭͿ dŽƉŽĨƐĐĂůĞϳͿ
ampĂƌͲZĞĂĐŚŝŶŐ
dŚĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĂĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞůLJŶĞǁŵĞŶƚĂůŵŽĚĞůƉĂƐƐŝŶŐƚŚƌŽƵŐŚĂƉĂƌĂĚŝŐŵƐŚŝŌ
ZĞƋƵŝƌĞƐŶŽĐŚĂŶŐĞŝŶŚŽǁƉĞŽƉůĞƚŚŝŶŬĂďŽƵƚĂƐŽůƵƟŽŶ
ZĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĂƉĂƌĂĚŝŐŵƐŚŝŌŝŶŚŽǁĂƐŽůƵƟŽŶŝƐǀŝĞǁĞĚĂĐƌŽƐƐƐŽĐŝĞƚLJ
dĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůůLJŚĂůůĞŶŐŝŶŐ
dŚĞŐŽĂůŝƐĚŝĸĐƵůƚƚŽŝŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĞŝƚŚĞƌŝŶƚĞƌŵƐŽĨŝŶǀĞŶƟŽŶƐŽƌƐLJƐƚĞŵŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƟŽŶƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚ
ZĞƋƵŝƌĞƐŶŽŶĞǁƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝnjĞĚĞdžƉĞƌƟƐĞ
ZĞƋƵŝƌĞƐŵĂũŽƌĂĚǀĂŶĐĞŵĞŶƚƐŝŶƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝnjĞĚĞdžƉĞƌƟƐĞ
DƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJ
dŚĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐŵƵůƟƉůĞďŽĚŝĞƐŽĨŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞƚŚĂƚƌĂƌĞůLJĞdžŝƐƚǁŝƚŚŝŶŽŶĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ
ZĞƋƵŝƌĞƐŽŶůLJŽŶĞĐůĂƐƐŽĨŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ
ZĞƋƵŝƌĞƐŵƵůƟƉůĞĚŝƐƟŶĐƚďŽĚŝĞƐŽĨŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ
s ĐƟŽŶĂďůĞ
dŚĞƌŝŐŚƚƉĞŽƉůĞĐĂŶƐĞĞĂƉĂƚŚƚŽƚŚĞŝŵƉŽƐƐŝďůĞĂŶĚĐĂŶŵĂŬĞƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐďĞŐŝŶŶŝŶŐƚŽĚĂLJ
ZĞƋƵŝƌĞƐƐŽŵƵĐŚĐůĂƌŝĮĐĂƟŽŶƚŚĂƚƚŚĞŶĞdžƚƐƚĞƉŝƐĂŶŽƚŚĞƌŵĞĞƟŶŐ
ZĞƋƵŝƌĞƐůŝƩůĞĞīŽƌƚƚŽďĞŐŝŶƚĂŬŝŶŐĂĐƟŽŶƐƚŽǁĂƌĚƚŚĞƐŽůƵƟŽŶ
216
Letrsquos look at an exampleůůZWĂƌĚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐĂƌĞŵĞĂƐƵƌĞĚŽŶ ƐĞǀĞŶͲƉŽŝŶƚ ŝŶƚĞƌǀĂů ƐĐĂůĞƐ ĂĐŚƐĐĂůĞ Ɛ ĞŶĚ ƉŽŝŶƚ ŝƐ ĚĞĮŶĞĚ ƚŽ ŝŶĚŝĐĂƚĞǁŚĂƚ ůŽǁ ĂŶĚ ŚŝŐŚ ĞŶƚĂŝů ĨŽƌ ƚŚĂƚĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶampŝǀĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐĨŽƌǁĞůůͲŬŶŽǁŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐ
ĂƌĞƌĂŶŬĞĚĂĐƌŽƐƐƚŚĞƐĞƐĐĂůĞƐƉƌŽǀŝĚŝŶŐĂŐĞŶĞƌĂůďĞŶĐŚŵĂƌŬƚŽŚĞůƉLJŽƵĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞLJŽƵƌŽǁŶǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJŝĚĞĂdŚĞƐĞǀŝƐŝŽŶƐĂƌĞĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞĚďƌŝĞŇLJ
DĂŶŚĂƩĂŶWƌŽũĞĐƚzŽƵ ĂƌĞ Ă ƉŚLJƐŝĐƐ ŐƌĂĚƵĂƚĞ ƐƚƵĚĞŶƚ ĂƚĂŶ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŝŶ ϭϵϰϮ ĂŶĚLJŽƵƌĂĚǀŝƐŽƌŚĂƐĂƐŬĞĚLJŽƵƚŽũŽŝŶĂŶĞǁƐĞĐƌĞƟǀĞŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚ dŚĞ ŐŽĂů ŝƐ ƚŽďƵŝůĚ ƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚ ƐĮƌƐƚĂƚŽŵŝĐďŽŵďdŚĞhŶŝƚĞĚ^ƚĂƚĞƐũŽŝŶĞĚƚŚĞttĮŐŚƚĂŌĞƌWĞĂƌůĂƌďŽƌǁĂƐďŽŵďĞĚŽŶĞĐĞŵďĞƌϴ ϭϵϰϭ ĂŶĚ ŽŶĞ ĚĂLJ ĂŌĞƌ ƚŚĞ h^ŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚ ĐŽŵŵŝƐƐŝŽŶĞĚ Ă ůĂƌŐĞͲƐĐĂůĞĂƚŽŵŝĐƉƌŽũĞĐƚǁŚŝĐŚďĞĐĂŵĞŬŶŽǁŶĂƐƚŚĞDĂŶŚĂƩĂŶWƌŽũĞĐƚ
DĂŶŽŶƚŚĞŵŽŽŶKŶĂǀĞƌLJŚŽƚƐƵŵŵĞƌ ƐĚĂLJŝŶϭϵϲϮLJŽƵĂƌĞ ƐŝƫŶŐ Ăƚ Ă ĨŽŽƚďĂůů ƐƚĂĚŝƵŵ Ăƚ ZŝĐĞhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŝŶdĞdžĂƐŚĞĂƌŝŶŐh^WƌĞƐŝĚĞŶƚŽŚŶ amp ltĞŶŶĞĚLJ ŐŝǀĞ Ă ƐƉĞĞĐŚ ĂďŽƵƚŽƵƚĞƌ ƐƉĂĐĞ Ɛ Ă ŵŝĚͲĐĂƌĞĞƌ ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌ LJŽƵŬŶĞǁƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞ^ŽǀŝĞƚhŶŝŽŶŽƉĞŶĞĚƚŚĞ ĮŶĂů ĨƌŽŶƟĞƌ ŽĨ ƐƉĂĐĞǁŚĞŶ ŝƚ ƐĞŶƚƚŚĞ ^ƉƵƚŶŝŬ ƐĂƚĞůůŝƚĞ ŝŶƚŽ Žƌďŝƚ ŝŶ ϭϵϱϳĂŶĚƐĞŶƚĂŵĂŶƚŽƐƉĂĐĞŝŶϭϵϲϭltĞŶŶĞĚLJƐĂLJƐ tĞ ĐŚŽŽƐĞ ƚŽ ŐŽ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ŵŽŽŶŝŶ ƚŚŝƐ ĚĞĐĂĚĞ ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ƚŚĂƚ ŐŽĂů ǁŝůůƐĞƌǀĞ ƚŽ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĞ ĂŶĚŵĞĂƐƵƌĞ ƚŚĞ ďĞƐƚŽĨ ŽƵƌ ĞŶĞƌŐŝĞƐ ĂŶĚ ƐŬŝůůƐ ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ƚŚĂƚĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ ŝƐ ŽŶĞ ƚŚĂƚ ǁĞ ĂƌĞ ǁŝůůŝŶŐ ƚŽĂĐĐĞƉƚŽŶĞǁĞĂƌĞƵŶǁŝůůŝŶŐƚŽƉŽƐƚƉŽŶĞĂŶĚŽŶĞǁŚŝĐŚǁĞŝŶƚĞŶĚƚŽǁŝŶĂŶĚƚŚĞŽƚŚĞƌƐƚŽŽ
217
ϭϬϬͲzĞĂƌ^ƉĂĐĞƐŚŝƉzŽƵ ĂƌĞ ƌĞĂĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ tĂƐŚŝŶŐƚŽŶ WŽƐƚŶĞǁƐƉĂƉĞƌ ŽǀĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ŚŽƚĞů Ɛ ŵŽƌŶŝŶŐĐŽīĞĞKŶĂŶƵĂƌLJϮϬϭϮZWĂŶĚE^ũŽŝŶƚůLJĂŶŶŽƵŶĐĞĚĂŶĞǁŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞĐĂůůĞĚƚŚĞϭϬϬͲzĞĂƌ ƉĂĐĞƐŚŝƉϭϬϬz^^ͿŝŶƚĞŶƚŽŶƐĞŶĚŝŶŐĞdžƉůŽƌĞƌƐƚŽĂŶŽƚŚĞƌƐƚĂƌƐLJƐƚĞŵŝŶϭϬϬLJĞĂƌƐzŽƵĮŶĚƚŚĞϭϬϬz^^ŵŝƐƐŝŽŶƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ ĨƌŽŵ ZW ƚŚĂƚ ƐƚĂƚĞƐϭϬϬ zĞĂƌ ^ƚĂƌƐŚŝƉ ǁŝůů ƵŶƌĞƐĞƌǀĞĚůLJĚĞĚŝĐĂƚĞŝƚƐĞůĨƚŽŝĚĞŶƟĨLJŝŶŐĂŶĚƉƵƐŚŝŶŐƚŚĞ ƌĂĚŝĐĂů ůĞĂƉƐ ŝŶ ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞ ĂŶĚƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŶĞĞĚĞĚƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞŝŶƚĞƌƐƚĞůůĂƌŇŝŐŚƚǁŚŝůĞƉŝŽŶĞĞƌŝŶŐĂŶĚ ƚƌĂŶƐĨŽƌŵŝŶŐďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ĂƉƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ ƚŽ ĞŶŚĂŶĐĞƚŚĞƋƵĂůŝƚLJŽĨůŝĨĞŽŶĞĂƌƚŚWƌŽŐƌĂŵƐƚŽĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚĂŚƵŵĂŶƉƌĞƐĞŶĐĞŽŶƚŚĞŵŽŽŶDĂƌƐ Žƌ ĞůƐĞǁŚĞƌĞ ŝŶ ŽƵƌ ƐŽůĂƌ ƐLJƐƚĞŵǁŝůůďĞƐƚĞƉƉŝŶŐͲƐƚŽŶĞƐƚŽƚŚĞƐƚĂƌƐ
ĂƌĐĞůŽŶĂŝƚLJWƌŽƚŽĐŽůzŽƵĂƌĞĂŶƵƌŽƉĞĂŶĐŝƚLJƉůĂŶŶĞƌŝŶǀŝƚĞĚƚŽ ĂŶ ĞĂƌůLJ ƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ ǁŽƌŬƐŚŽƉ Ŷ ƚŚĞƐƉƌŝŶŐ ŽĨ ϮϬϭϮ ƚŚĞ ĐŝƚLJ ŽĨ ĂƌĐĞůŽŶĂĂŶŶŽƵŶĐĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ŝƚ ĂŝŵƐ ƚŽ ďĞ Ă ŐůŽďĂůƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ ŵŽĚĞů ĨŽƌ ƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďůĞ ƵƌďĂŶĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ŝŶ ϭϬ LJĞĂƌƐ WĂƌƚ ŽĨƚŚĞ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĞŶƚĂŝůƐ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐ Ă ŝƚLJWƌŽƚŽĐŽůŵŽĚĞůǁŚŝĐŚǁŝůůďĞƚŚĞĮƌƐƚĐĞƌƟĮĐĂƟŽŶƐLJƐƚĞŵĨŽƌƐŵĂƌƚĐŝƟĞƐƚŚĂƚǁŝůůŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƚŚĞĞĸĐŝĞŶĐLJĂŶĚƋƵĂůŝƚLJŽĨĂĐŝƚLJWůĂŶŶĞĚĐŝƚLJƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐĨŽƌĂƌĐĞůŽŶĂǁŝůů ŝŶĐůƵĚĞ Ă ƐŵĂƌƚ ďƵƐ ŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ƚŚĞĞŶĞƌŐLJ ŵŽŶŝƚŽƌŝŶŐ ŽĨ ƉƵďůŝĐ ďƵŝůĚŝŶŐƐĂŶĚ ƉĂLJͲƉĞƌͲƵƐĞ ŵŽĚĞů ĨŽƌ ĐŝƚLJ ůŝŐŚƟŶŐĂƌĐĞůŽŶĂ ƐŵĂLJŽƌƐƚĂƚĞĚĂƌĐĞůŽŶĂŚĂƐĂƐƚƌŽŶŐĐŽŵŵŝƚŵĞŶƚƚŽďĞĐŽŵĞĂƐŵĂƌƚĐŝƚLJ ĂŶĚĂ ƐŚŽǁĐĂƐĞ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ƌĞƐƚŽĨ ƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚŝŶƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďůĞƵƌďĂŶĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ
ŽƵďůŝŶŐŚƵŵĂŶůŝĨĞŶϮϬϬϴLJŽƵĚĞĐŝĚĞƚŽĂƩĞŶĚƚŚĞĮƌƐƚh^ĐŽŶĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ ĂďŽƵƚ ŚƵŵĂŶ ĂŐŝŶŐ ŚŽƐƚĞĚďLJ dŚĞ DĞƚŚƵƐĞůĂŚ ampŽƵŶĚĂƟŽŶ Ăƚ ƚŚĞhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŽĨĂůŝĨŽƌŶŝĂŝŶgtŽƐŶŐĞůĞƐampŽƌƐĞǀĞƌĂůLJĞĂƌƐƌŝƟƐŚƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌƵďƌĞLJĚĞƌĞLJŚĂƐĐůĂŝŵĞĚƚŚĂƚŚƵŵĂŶƐĐŽƵůĚůŝǀĞĨŽƌϭϬϬϬLJĞĂƌƐzŽƵǀĞĂůƐŽďĞĞŶĨŽůůŽǁŝŶŐƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬ ŽĨ ŝůů ŶĚƌĞǁƐ ĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌ ŽĨŵŽůĞĐƵůĂƌ ďŝŽůŽŐLJ Ăƚ ĂůŝĨŽƌŶŝĂͲďĂƐĞĚďŝŽƚĞĐŚ Įƌŵ ĞƌŽŶ ŝƐĞĂƐĞƐ ƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ƚŽĂŐŝŶŐ ůŝŬĞ ĚĞŵĞŶƟĂ ĂŶĚ ŚĞĂƌƚ ĚŝƐĞĂƐĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJ ďůŽĐŬ ŚƵŵĂŶƐ ĨƌŽŵ ƌĞĂĐŚŝŶŐůŽŶŐůŝĨĞĂŶĚŚƵŵĂŶďŽĚLJƉĂƌƚƐǁĞĂƌŽƵƚĨƌŽŵ ƵƐĞ Ŷ ƚŚĞ ƋƵĞƐƚ ĨŽƌ ŝŵŵŽƌƚĂůŝƚLJ ƐĐŝĞŶƟƐƚƐ ƐŚŽƵůĚ ĨŽĐƵƐ ŽŶ ƵŶůŽĐŬŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŵŽůĞĐƵůĂƌŵĞĐŚĂŶŝƐŵƐŽĨĂŐŝŶŐ
218
Instructionsϭ ampŝƌƐƚĂƐƐĞƐƐŚŽǁĨĂƌͲƌĞĂĐŚŝŶŐLJŽƵƌ
ǀŝƐŝŽŶŝƐĂŶĚƐĐŽƌĞŝƚŽŶƐĐĂůĞϮ ǀĂůƵĂƚĞƚŚĞůĞǀĞůŽĨƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂů
ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞĨŽƌLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶĂŶĚƐĐŽƌĞŝƚŽŶƐĐĂůĞ
ϯ EĞdžƚŐĂƵŐĞƚŚĞůĞǀĞůŽĨŵƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝͲŶĂƌLJĐŽŵŵŝƚŵĞŶƚLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶƌĞƋƵŝƌĞƐĂŶĚƐĐŽƌĞŝƚŽŶƐĐĂůĞ
ϰ ampŝŶĂůůLJĞǀĂůƵĂƚĞƚŚĞĂďŝůŝƚLJƚŽƚĂŬĞŝŵŵĞĚŝĂƚĞĂĐƟŽŶŽŶLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶĂŶĚƐĐŽƌĞŝƚŽŶƐĐĂůĞs
ї^ĞĞƚŚĞĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚĚŝĂŐƌĂŵĨŽƌĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞůĞƩĞƌƐĨŽƌĞĂĐŚǀŝƐŝŽŶĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞůĞƩĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
sŝƐŝŽŶĚŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶ YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ ^ƵŐŐĞƐƚĞĚŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƚŽŚĞůƉĂĚĚƌĞƐƐ
ampĂƌͲZĞĂĐŚŝŶŐ
gt ŽǁĚŽĞƐƚŚĞůĂƵŶĐŚŚŽƌŝnjŽŶĐŽŵƉĂƌĞƚŽLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂŶĚŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJƟŵĞůŝŶĞƐgt ŽLJŽƵǁĂŶƚƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞĂŶĞǁƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJƵƐĞŽƌĐƌĞĂƚĞĂŶĞǁŵĂƌŬĞƚ
gt hƐĞƚŚĞĂŶƵƐŽŶĞƐƚŽŐĂƵŐĞƉĂƐƚƟŵĞĨƌĂŵĞƐƚŽĚĞǀĞůŽƉĂďĂƐĞůŝŶĞgt dƌLJƚŚĞĂƌŬŽƌƐĞWƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞƚŽƋƵĞƐƟŽŶŚŝĚĚĞŶƉƌĞĐŽŶĐĞƉƟŽŶƐ
dĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůůLJŚĂůůĞŶŐŝŶŐ
gt ƐƚŚĞƉƌŽďůĞŵĂůŵŽƐƚƵŶƚŚŝŶŬĂďůĞƚŽƐŽůǀĞĚƵĞƚŽĐŽŵƉůĞdžŝŶƚĞƌĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶĐŝĞƐĂŶĚŚŝŐŚůĞǀĞůƐŽĨĂŵďŝŐƵŝƚLJ
gt hƐĞWƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƵƌǀĞƐƚŽƌĞǀŝĞǁƚŚĞƐƚĂƚĞŽĨƚŚĞĮĞůĚĂŶĚŝĚĞĂƉƌĞĐĞĚĞŶƚƐ
DƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJgt ŽĞƐLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶĨĂůůŽƵƚƐŝĚĞŽĨƚŚĞƵƐƵĂůďŽƵŶĚĂƌŝĞƐĂŶĚĂƚůĞĂƐƚƚǁŽĂĐĂĚĞŵŝĐĮĞůĚƐ
gt ƉƉůLJƚŚĞŽŶƚĞdžƚDĂƉƐĂŶĚtŚŝƚĞ^ƉŽƚƐŵĞƚŚŽĚƐƚŽĂƐƐĞƐƐƚŚĞŝĚĞĂĨƌŽŵƚŚĞǀŝĞǁŽĨǀĂƌŝŽƵƐĮĞůĚƐ
ĐƟŽŶĂďůĞgt ĂŶLJŽƵƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƚŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƐĂƐŝŶŐůĞĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƚŽƚŚŽƐĞǁŚŽǁŝůůďƵŝůĚŝƚ
gt hƐĞƚŚĞsŝƐŝŽŶ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚŵĞƚŚŽĚƚŽƐŚĂƌƉĞŶĂŶĚƐŝŵƉůŝĨLJLJŽƵƌƐƚŽƌLJ
Ϯϭϵ(
13
)
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
13 A A contemporary bold
idea that humans could
control nuclear power
safely and strategically
13$
D Stuff of science fiction
to travel to stars
B A stretch goal that built on previous efforts to put a satellite and man into orbit
C An idea that baffles the
mainstream scientific
community
13
E An ambitious goal to build next generation city services for one region
220amp
1313
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
13
$13
D Requires radical
advancements in many
systems from life-support
to ship propulsion to
manufacturing
B Difficult problem without computer aid drawing on earlier success of the first Russian cosmonaut
C No proven solutions to date that reverse or stop human aging
A Requires inventing new precision techniques for mass produced explosives
13
E Requires the integration of existing pervasive and physical network infrastructures
221
131313
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
13
A Assimilated concepts
and leaders from all
scientific fields and
engineering disciplines
13
D Vision can only be
achieved by the cooperation
of multiple diverse groups
B Helped create a new field of aerospace engineering
C Fostering a new scientific discipline of geroscience
13
E Joint coalition between different government groups city planners and businesses
222$$
13
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
13
13
A Presidentrsquos approval
expedited efforts and
funding nation-wide
13
C Biomedical research
grants now available from
several groups
B Established a new US space agency called NASA to centralize and mobilize efforts
D First step was to conduct feasibility study and provoke possible partners
13
E A committee-driven approach managed by a global technology company
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton223
Drawing insights amp implicationsdŚĞ ďĞŶĐŚŵĂƌŬ ĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐ ŽĨ ĮǀĞ ǁĞůůͲŬŶŽǁŶŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐƌĞǀĞĂůƚŚĂƚƚŚĞŝƌǀŝƐŝŽŶ
ƐĐŽƌŝŶŐ ĚŝīĞƌƐ ƐůŝŐŚƚůLJ ĂĐƌŽƐƐ Ăůů ƐĐĂůĞƐDŽƌĞŽǀĞƌ ĞĂĐŚ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ Ɛ ƐĐŽƌŝŶŐ ŵĂLJ ƐŚŝŌĚƵƌŝŶŐĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚƐƚĂŐĞƐŽĨ ŝƚƐĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂŶĚŝŶĐŽŶƚĞdžƚƚŽƐŽĐŝĞƚLJ ƐǀŝĞǁƐŽĨƚŚĞƟŵĞ
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
Far-Reaching
Technically Challenging
Multi-Disciplinary Actionable
Manhattan Project
Man on the moon
Doubling human life
100-Year Spaceship
Barcelona City Protocol
13
224
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ŽŶƚƚƌLJƚŽƐĐŽƌĞƉĞƌĨĞĐƚůLJĨƌŽŵ
ƚŚĞƐƚĂƌƚŶƐƚĞĂĚƵƐĞƚŚĞZWĂƌĚdĞƐƚƚŽƉƌĞͲƚĞƐƚLJŽƵƌǀŝƐŝŽŶǁŚŝĐŚLJŽƵǁŝůůǁĂŶƚƚŽƚŚĞŶƌĞǁŽƌŬĂŶĚĐŽͲĚĞǀĞůŽƉǁŝƚŚLJŽƵƌďƌŽĂĚĞƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ
ͻ ŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂǀĞƌĂŐŝŶŐƐĐŽƌĞƐĨƌŽŵĐŽůůĞĂŐƵĞƐĂŶĚƉĂƌƚŶĞƌƐĂƐĂǁĂLJƚŽŐĂƵŐĞLJŽƵƌŶĞƚǁŽƌŬ ƐŝŵƉƌĞƐƐŝŽŶŽĨLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂ ƐǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJƉŽƚĞŶƟĂů
ZampgtdKEWhich dimension of the
DARPA Hard Test will be
most challenging for
LJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
13
$ 13
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
$ amp
1313
131313
((
DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet 1
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton()
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
amp
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
13
amp
1313
131313
131313
DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet 2
227
tŚĞŶĞŽƌŐĞĞŝůŵĞŝĞƌǁĂƐƚŚĞĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌŽĨZWƚŚĞŶĐĂůůĞĚZWͿŝŶƚŚĞŵŝĚͲϭϵϳϬƐ ŚĞ ĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚ ĞǀĞƌLJ ƉƌŽƉŽƐĂů ĨŽƌĂ ŶĞǁ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵ ƚŽ ĂŶƐǁĞƌĂ ƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚ ƐĞƚ ŽĨ ƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐ dŚĞƐĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶĐĂůůĞĚƚŚĞĞŝůŵĞŝĞƌĂƚĞĐŚŝƐŵŽƌĞŝůŵĞŝĞƌ ƐĐƌŝƚĞƌŝĂltŶŽǁŶďLJ ŵĂŶLJ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ŚŝƐƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐŚĞůƉĞĚĞŶƐƵƌĞĂƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůŝĚĞĂŚĂĚƉƌĂĐƟĐĂůĂƉƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶĞŝůŵĞŝĞƌ Ɛ ĐƌŝƚĞƌŝĂ ĂƌĞ Ă ƵƐĞĨƵů ǁĂLJ
ƚŽƚĞƐƚLJŽƵƌŽǁŶŐƌŽƵƉ ƐǀŝƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂƐĂǁĂLJƚŽĐŽŶǀĞLJƚŽŽƚŚĞƌƐǁŚĂƚLJŽƵŚŽƉĞƚŽ ĂĐĐŽŵƉůŝƐŚ ^ĞǀĞƌĂů ǀĞƌƐŝŽŶƐ ŚĂǀĞĐŝƌĐƵůĂƚĞĚ ƐŝŶĐĞ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞŵŽƐƚ ĐŽŵŵŽŶǀĞƌƐŝŽŶŝƐĂƐĨŽůůŽǁƐ
ϭ tŚĂƚŝƐƚŚĞƉƌŽďůĞŵĂŶĚǁŚLJŝƐŝƚŚĂƌĚĂƌƟĐƵůĂƚĞLJŽƵƌŽďũĞĐƟǀĞƐƵƐŝŶŐĂďƐŽůƵƚĞůLJŶŽũĂƌŐŽŶͿ
Ϯ ŽǁŝƐŝƚĚŽŶĞƚŽĚĂLJ ĂŶĚǁŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞůŝŵŝƚƐŽĨĐƵƌƌĞŶƚƉƌĂĐƟĐĞ
ϯ tŚĂƚ ƐŶĞǁŝŶLJŽƵƌĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĂŶĚǁŚLJĚŽLJŽƵƚŚŝŶŬŝƚǁŝůůďĞƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵů
ϰ tŚŽĐĂƌĞƐĨLJŽƵƌĞƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵůǁŚĂƚĚŝīĞƌĞŶĐĞǁŝůůŝƚŵĂŬĞ
ϱ tŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞƌŝƐŬƐĂŶĚƚŚĞƉĂLJŽīƐ
ϲ ŽǁŵƵĐŚǁŝůůŝƚĐŽƐƚŽǁůŽŶŐǁŝůůŝƚƚĂŬĞ
ϳ tŚĂƚĂƌĞƚŚĞŵŝĚƚĞƌŵĂŶĚĮŶĂůĞdžĂŵƐƚŽĐŚĞĐŬĨŽƌƐƵĐĐĞƐƐ
CASE STUDY | The Heilmeier Catechism at DARPA
228
DĂŶLJ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ŬŶŽǁtĂůƚ ŝƐŶĞLJ ĨŽƌ ŚŝƐĞŵƉŝƌĞ ŽĨ ŝƐŶĞLJůĂŶĚ ŝƐŶĞLJ tŽƌůĚĂŶĚ ŝƐŶĞLJ ĐĂƌƚŽŽŶƐ ĞLJŽŶĚ ĐƌĞĂƟŶŐŶĞǁ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĞƐ ŝŶ ĂŶŝŵĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚĂŵƵƐĞŵĞŶƚƉĂƌŬƐ ŝŶŚŝƐ ůŝĨĞƟŵĞŝƐŶĞLJĂůƐŽŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞĚŵĞƌŝĐĂŶƐŽĐŝĞƚLJŝŶŽƚŚĞƌǁĂLJƐampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞĚƵƌŝŶŐƚŚĞϭϵϱϬƐŚĞĞdžƉůŽƌĞĚ ƚŚĞ ŝĚĞĂƐ ŽĨ ƐƉĂĐĞ ĞdžƉůŽƌĂƟŽŶĂŶĚƐƉĂĐĞƚƌĂǀĞůŝŶƐĞǀĞƌĂůŝƐŶĞLJůĂŶĚdsƐŚŽǁƐǁŚŝĐŚŚĞůƉĞĚĐƌĞĂƚĞƐƚƌŽŶŐƉƵďůŝĐƐƵƉƉŽƌƚ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ďƵƌŐĞŽŶŝŶŐ h^ ƐƉĂĐĞƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŝƐŶĞLJ ĂůƐŽ ŝŶŇƵĞŶĐĞĚ ŚŽǁ ƉĞŽƉůĞ
ƚŚŝŶŬ ĂďŽƵƚ ƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďůĞ ĐŝƟĞƐ ŝƐ ůĂƐƚĮůŵƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚĂďŽůĚǀŝƐŝŽŶĨŽƌĂĐŽŶĐĞƉƚĐĂůůĞĚ ƚŚĞ džƉĞƌŝŵĞŶƚĂů WƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ ŽĨ dŽŵŽƌƌŽǁ ŽƚŚĞƌǁŝƐĞŬŶŽǁŶĂƐWKd WKd ǁĂƐ ĂŶ ŝĚĞĂůŝnjĞĚ ĐŝƚLJ ǁŚĞƌĞ
ƉĞŽƉůĞǁŽƵůĚůŝǀĞǁŽƌŬĂŶĚƉůĂLJƵŝůĚŝŶŐŽŶ ĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌ ŝĚĞĂƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƟŵĞ WKdĞǀŽŬĞƐƚŚĞƵƌŽƉĞĂŶĐŽŶĐĞƉƚŽĨĂƌĚĞŶŝƟĞƐĂŶĚƚŚĞƉŽƉƵůĂƌtŽƌůĚampĂŝƌƐ
A grand challengedŚĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĨŽƌWKdǁĂƐĮƌƐƚƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚŝŶKĐƚŽďĞƌϭϵϲϲƚŽ ƚŚĞŵĞƌŝĐĂŶƉƵďůŝĐŽŶ ŶĂƟŽŶĂů ƚĞůĞǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĂƐ ƉĂƌƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞǁĞĞŬůLJŝƐŶĞLJůĂŶĚƐĞƌŝĞƐŶŚŝƐĮůŵŝƐŶĞLJƐǀŝƐŝŽŶŝƐƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞĚ
ŝŶƚŚƌĞĞƉĂƌƚƐƚŚĂƚĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞĮƌƐƚƚŚƌĞĞ ƉŚĂƐĞƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐWĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞKƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJĂŶĚ^ŽůƵƟŽŶŶ ƚŚĞ ĮƌƐƚ ƐĞĐƟŽŶ ƚŚĞ ŶĂƌƌĂƚŽƌ
ƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐ Ă ďƌŝĞĨ ŚŝƐƚŽƌLJ ŽĨ ŝƐŶĞLJ ƐǁŽƌŬ ƋƵŽƟŶŐ ĞdžƉĞƌƚƐ ĂŶĚ ĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚŝŶŐĐƌĞĚŝďŝůŝƚLJǁŝƚŚƚŚĞĂƵĚŝĞŶĐĞͶĂůůŽĨǁŚŝĐŚŽīĞƌƐƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟǀĞƚŽƚŚĞǀŝĞǁĞƌƐŐŽŽĚǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĞŵďŽĚŝĞƐ ƚŚĞ ďĞůŝĞĨƐ ĂŶĚ ǀĂůƵĞƐŽĨƚŚĞƟŵĞĂŶĚŝƚǁĂƐŶŽĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚǁŝƚŚWKd ampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞƚŚĞĐŝƚLJůŽĐĂƟŽŶǁĂƐĚĞůŝďĞƌĂƚĞůLJƉůĂĐĞĚĂƚƚŚĞŝŶƚĞƌƐĞĐƟŽŶŽĨƚǁŽŵĂũŽƌŚŝŐŚǁĂLJƐũƵƐƚĂƐƚŚĞŵĞƌŝĐĂŶŝŶƚĞƌƐƚĂƚĞ ƐLJƐƚĞŵ ǁĂƐ ŇŽƵƌŝƐŚŝŶŐ ĂŶĚĨĂŵŝůLJƌŽĂĚƚƌŝƉƐǁĞƌĞďĞĐŽŵŝŶŐƉŽƉƵůĂƌŶ ƚŚĞ ŶĞdžƚ ƐĞĐƟŽŶ ŝƐŶĞLJ ŽƵƚůŝŶĞƐ
ƚŚĞŽƉƉŽƌƚƵŶŝƚLJĨŽƌŚŝƐďŝŐŝĚĞĂƐŚŽǁŝŶŐ
CASE STUDY | The original vision of EPCOT
ǁŚLJŝƚŝƐĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞƐƚŚĞŶĞĞĚƐŽĨǁŽƌŬĞƌƐĨĂŵŝůŝĞƐ ĂŶĚďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĞƐ WKdǁĂƐ ƚŽďĞ Ă ƐĞůĨͲƐƵƐƚĂŝŶŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ƐĞůĨͲŐŽǀĞƌŶŝŶŐĐŝƚLJ ĚĞƐŝŐŶĞĚ ĨŽƌ ƉƵďůŝĐ ŶĞĞĚ ŶŽƚĞŶƚĞƌƚĂŝŶŵĞŶƚ ŝƐŶĞLJ ŚŽƉĞĚ ƚŚĂƚWKdǁŽƵůĚŚĂǀĞĂďŝŐŝŵƉĂĐƚŽŶƵƌďĂŶƉůĂŶŶŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚďĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞĐŝƚLJǁŽƵůĚďĞĐŽŵĞĂƉŝůŽƚŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂĐŚŝŶŐ ĂŐĞͶƚŽŐŽ ĂĐƌŽƐƐ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ĂŶĚ ĂĐƌŽƐƐ ƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚŶ ƚŚĞ ĮŶĂů ƐĞĐƟŽŶ ŚĞ ĞdžƉůĂŝŶƐ ŚŽǁ
WKdĐŽƵůĚǁŽƌŬĂƐĂƐŽůƵƟŽŶĂŶĚŚĞůƉƐƉĞŽƉůĞƚŽŝŵĂŐŝŶĞƚŚĞŶĞǁĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJďLJƐŚŽǁŝŶŐĂŶŝŵĂƚĞĚƐŬĞƚĐŚĞƐŝůůƵƐƚƌĂƟŽŶƐĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƌŽƵŐŚ ƉƌŽƚŽƚLJƉĞƐ ŝƐŶĞLJƉŽƐĞĚ ŚŝƐ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĂƐ Ă ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞ ƚŽ ƚŚĞŐĞŶĞƌĂů ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ƉƵďůŝĐ ƐĂLJŝŶŐ ĚŽŶƚďĞůŝĞǀĞƚŚĞƌĞ ƐĂŐƌĂŶĚĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞĂŶLJǁŚĞƌĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌůĚ ƚŚĂƚ Ɛ ŵŽƌĞŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ƚŽ ƉĞŽƉůĞ ĞǀĞƌLJǁŚĞƌĞ ƚŚĂŶĮŶĚŝŶŐƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐƚŽƚŚĞƉƌŽďůĞŵƐŽĨŽƵƌĐŝƟĞƐ
ϮϮϵ
Was the vision DARPA HardtĂůƚ ŝƐŶĞLJ Ɛ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĨŽƌ WKdǁĂƐ ďŽůĚĂŶĚ ƵŶďĞůŝĞǀĂďůĞ ƚŽŵĂŶLJ dŚĞ ůĂŶŐƵĂŐĞƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŽƵƚ ƚŚĞ Įůŵ ŝƐ ǁŽŶĚĞƌĨƵůůLJƐĐƌŝƉƚĞĚƌĞŝŶĨŽƌĐŝŶŐƚŚĞĨŽƵƌƋƵĂůŝƟĞƐŽĨĂƌĂĚŝĐĂůǀŝƐŝŽŶϭ ampĂƌͲZĞĂĐŚŝŶŐWKdǁĂƐĂďŝŐ
ŝĚĞĂƚŚĂƚǁŽƵůĚƚĂŬĞďŽƚŚƟŵĞĂŶĚĐŽŵƉůĞdžŝŶƚĞŐƌĂƟŽŶƚŽďƵŝůĚ
Ϯ dĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůůLJĐŚĂůůĞŶŐŝŶŐWKdǁĂƐĂŶĞŶƟƌĞůLJŶĞǁĐŝƚLJǁŝƚŚŶĞǁŝŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞŝĚĞĂƐƐƵĐŚĂƌĞŐƵůĂƚĞĚĐůŝŵĂƚĞƐLJƐƚĞŵŝŶĂůŽĐĂƟŽŶĨĂƌĂǁĂLJĨƌŽŵƚŚĞŝƐŶĞLJĞŶƚĞƌƉƌŝƐĞͶƚƌƵůLJZWĂƌĚ
ϯ DƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJtŚŝůĞŝƐŶĞLJǁĂƐƚŚĞƐƉŽŬĞƐƉĞƌƐŽŶŚĞŶĞĞĚĞĚƚŚĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶŽĨŵƵůƟƉůĞŐƌŽƵƉƐĨƌŽŵŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ĂŶĚƚŚĞĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJƚŽŵĂŬĞƚŚĞŝĚĞĂŽĨWKdƌĞĂů
ϰ ĐƟŽŶĂďůĞŝƐŶĞLJĂƉƉĞĂůĞĚƚŽŽƚŚĞƌĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐƚŽŚĞůƉƐŚŽǁŚŽǁƚŚĞLJĐŽƵůĚŐĞƚŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚŝŵŵĞĚŝĂƚĞůLJ
The vision of EPCOT todayŝƐŶĞLJĚŝĞĚƐŽŽŶĂŌĞƌŚŝƐǀŝĚĞŽĂŝƌĞĚĂŶĚƚŚĞŵŽŵĞŶƚƵŵĨŽƌWKdƐƚŽƉƉĞĚĨŽƌĂƟŵĞǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJŝƐŽŌĞŶĐůŽƐĞůLJůŝŶŬĞĚ ƚŽ ŚŝƐŚĞƌ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ ůƚŚŽƵŐŚŝƐŶĞLJ Ɛ ďƌŽƚŚĞƌ ĂŶĚ ŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚƚĞĂŵƉƵƌƐƵĞĚƉĂƌƚƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŝĚĞĂ ƚŚĞLJďƵŝůƚĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚǀĞƌƐŝŽŶƵŶĚĞƌƚŚĞƐĂŵĞŶĂŵĞͶǁŚŝĐŚ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞĚ Ă ƚŚĞŵĞ ƉĂƌŬƚŚĂƚŽƉĞŶĞĚŝŶϭϵϴϮĂŶĚĂƉůĂŶŶĞĚĐŝƚLJĐĂůůĞĚĞůĞďƌĂƟŽŶƚŚĂƚǁĂƐĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚŝŶƚŚĞŵŝĚͲϭϵϵϬƐtĂƐ WKd Ă ĨĂŝůĞĚ ǀŝƐŝŽŶ EŽ
ďĞĐĂƵƐĞ ĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ƚĞĂŵ ƉƵƌƐƵĞĚ ĂĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚŝĚĞĂhůƟŵĂƚĞůLJ ŵĂŶLJŽĨƚŚĞŝĚĞĂƐďĞŚŝŶĚƚŚĞŽƌŝŐŝŶĂůWKdǀŝƐŝŽŶǁĞƌĞŐƌĂĚƵĂůůLJĞŵďƌĂĐĞĚďLJŵĞƌŝĐĂŶƐŽĐŝĞƚLJŝŶƚŚĞĞŶƐƵŝŶŐĚĞĐĂĚĞƐ
^ŽƵƌĐĞtĂůƚŝƐŶĞLJ^ƚƵĚŝŽƐŽŵĞŶƚĞƌƚĂŝŶŵĞŶƚ
230ΞϮϬϭϮtŝůůŝĂŵŽĐŬĂLJŶĞΘdĂŵĂƌĂĂƌůĞƚŽŶ
7H[OAumlUKLYZJOHY[Z[OLWH[OMVYHUPKLH[VAumlUKZJJLZZIHZLKVUformal and informal rules within an organization or network
When to use itͻ dŽŚĞůƉLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵƌĞǀŝĞǁƚŚĞ
ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂůƚƌĂŝůƐŽĨƉĂƐƚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂƐ
ͻ dŽĐŚĂƌƚƚŚĞƐƵĐĐĞƐƐƉĂƚŚĨŽƌLJŽƵƌŶĞǁŝĚĞĂ
Why itrsquos helpfulKŶĐĞĂƉƌŽŵŝƐŝŶŐďŝŐŝĚĞĂŝƐĨŽƵŶĚŵĂŶLJŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ ĂƌĞ ŽŌĞŶ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞĚ ƚŽ ƚĂŬĞƚŚĞ ŝĚĞĂďĂĐŬ ƚŽ ƐĞŶŝŽƌŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚŽƌƚŽ ƚŚĞŵĂŝŶŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ĨŽƌĂǁĞůĐŽŵĞƌĞĐĞƉƟŽŶ DĂŶLJ ƟŵĞƐ ƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵů ŝĚĞĂƐĚŽ ŶŽƚ ĨŽůůŽǁ ƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚ ƉƌŽĐĞĚƵƌĞ ŽƌƚŚĞ ƉƌĞƐĐƌŝďĞĚ ƐƚĂŐĞͲŐĂƚĞ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐ ŝŶ ĂŶŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶdŚĞƐĞŝĚĞĂƐƵƐƵĂůůLJŚĂǀĞƚŽĐƌĞĂƚĞƚŚĞŝƌŽǁŶƉĂƚŚƐƚŽƐƵĐĐĞƐƐdŚĞWĂƚŚĮŶĚĞƌƐŵĞƚŚŽĚďŽƌƌŽǁƐĨƌŽŵ
ƚŚĞƉƌĂĐƟĐĞŽĨǁĂLJĮŶĚŝŶŐǁŚŝĐŚ ŝƐ ƚŚĞŚƵŵĂŶƉƌŽĐĞƐƐŽĨƵƐŝŶŐǀŝƐƵĂů ĐƵĞƐĂŶĚůĂŶĚŵĂƌŬƐƚŽŶĂǀŝŐĂƚĞƉŚLJƐŝĐĂůƐƉĂĐĞampŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞǁĂLJĮŶĚŝŶŐŝƐĐƌŝƟĐĂůŝŶĂŝƌƉŽƌƚƐĂŶĚ ĐŽŶĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ ĐĞŶƚĞƌƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƌĞůLJ ŽŶ
Pathfinders
ŵƵůƟƉůĞ ƚLJƉĞƐ ŽĨ ƐŝŐŶƐ ƚŽ ŽƌŝĞŶƚ ĂŶĚĚŝƌĞĐƚĐƌŽǁĚƐltŶŽǁŝŶŐŚŽǁLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵůŝŬĞƐƚŽƉƌŽĐĞĞĚ
ĂƐ ǁĞůů ĂƐ ƚŚĞ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂů ƉĂƚŚƐ ĨƌŽŵƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐ ŝĚĞĂƐǁŝůůŚĞůƉLJŽƵĂĚǀĂŶĐĞĂŶĚŶĂǀŝŐĂƚĞ Ă ŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂ ŝīĞƌĞŶƚ ƚLJƉĞƐ ŽĨŶĂǀŝŐĂƚŽƌƐĞdžŝƐƚgtĂŶĚŵĂƌŬŶĂǀŝŐĂƚŽƌƐ ůŽŽŬĨŽƌĚŝƐƟŶĐƟǀĞďƵŝůĚŝŶŐƐŽƌƵƉĐŽŵŝŶŐĞǀĞŶƚƐŝŶƚŚĞŶĞĂƌĚŝƐƚĂŶĐĞƚŽƉŝĐŬǁŚŝĐŚĚŝƌĞĐƟŽŶƚŽ ŐŽ ŶĞdžƚ ZŽƵƚĞ ŶĂǀŝŐĂƚŽƌƐ ĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞŶĞǁƉĂƚŚƐďLJĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŶŐŽƌĞdžƚĞŶĚŝŶŐĨƌŽŵĨĂŵŝůŝĂƌ ůŽĐĂƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ ƐƚƌĞĞƚ ƐŝŐŶƐ DĂƉŶĂǀŝŐĂƚŽƌƐ ƌĞůLJ ŽŶ ƐƉĂƟĂů ƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐŚŝƉƐƉƌĞĨĞƌƌŝŶŐƐŝƚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵƐĂŶĚLJŽƵĂƌĞŚĞƌĞŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐ tĂŶĚĞƌĞƌƐ ŵĞĂŶĚĞƌ ŝŶĚŝƌĞĐƚůLJƚŽƚŚĞŝƌĚĞƐƟŶĂƟŽŶĂƚŶŽƐĞƚƉĂĐĞǀĞƌƐƵƐŚƵŶƚĞƌƐǁŚŽŵŽǀĞƌĂƉŝĚůLJƚŽĂƚĂƌŐĞƚ
What you getǀŝƐƵĂůŵĂƉĨŽƌLJŽƵƌŝĚĞĂ ƐƉĂƚŚƚŽƐƵĐĐĞƐƐǁŝůůƉƌŽǀŝĚĞĐůĞĂƌĐƵĞƐĂŶĚůĂŶĚŵĂƌŬƐŽŶŚŽǁƚŽŶĂǀŝŐĂƚĞƚŚĞƐƚĂƚĞĚĂŶĚƵŶƐƚĂƚĞĚƌƵůĞƐǁŝƚŚŝŶƚŚĞŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ
231
Letrsquos look at an exampleƚĞĂŵŽĨƵƐĞƌĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌƐĂƚĂůĂƌŐĞĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌĞůĞĐƚƌŽŶŝĐƐŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌĞƌǁĂŶƚĞĚ ƚŽ ĞŶƐƵƌĞ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ůĂƚĞƐƚŝĚĞĂ ǁŽƵůĚ ŇLJ ƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ĚŝǀŝƐŝŽŶ ƐĂƉƉƌŽǀĂůƉƌŽĐĞƐƐampƌŽŵƉĂƐƚĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƚŚĞLJŬŶĞǁƚŚĂƚĂŶĞǁŝĚĞĂĨĂĐĞĚŵƵůƟƉůĞŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂůƚĞƐƚƐĂŶĚŽďƐƚĂĐůĞƐhƐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ WĂƚŚĮŶĚĞƌƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚ ƚŚĞLJ
ĚƌĞǁĂƐƚƌĂŝŐŚƚ ůŝŶĞƚŚĂƚƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĞĚĂŶŝĚĞĂ ƐĂƐƐŝŐŶĞĚƉĂƚŚůŽŶŐƚŚŝƐůŝŶĞƚŚĞLJďĞŐĂŶƚŽŶŽƚĞƚLJƉŝĐĂůŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐƐƵĐŚĂƐĂĨĞĂƐŝďŝůŝƚLJƐƚƵĚLJĨŽƌĂŶĞǁĐŽŶĐĞƉƚdŚĞŶ ƚŚĞLJ ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĞĚ ƚǁŽ ŝĚĞĂƐ ƚŚĂƚ
ŚĂĚ ďĞĞŶ ƉƵƌƐƵĞĚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƉĂƐƚ LJĞĂƌ ŽŶĞǁŚŝĐŚŚĂĚƐƚĂůůĞĚĂŌĞƌƐĞǀĞƌĂůŵŽŶƚŚƐĂŶĚĂŶŽƚŚĞƌ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƋƵŝĐŬůLJ ŐŽƚ ƚŚĞ ĂƩĞŶƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞdKdŚĞLJĐŚĂƌƚĞĚƚŚĞƉĂƚŚŽĨďŽƚŚŝĚĞĂƐ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ ƐƚĂƌƚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƐƚƌĂŝŐŚƚ ůŝŶĞŵĂƌŬŝŶŐ ĂĚĚŝƟŽŶĂů ĞǀĞŶƚƐ ŝŶ ĞĂĐŚ ŝĚĞĂ ƐĞĂƌůLJ ĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ ǀĞŶƚƐ ƚŚĂƚ ŚĞůƉĞĚ ƚŽĂĐĐĞůĞƌĂƚĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚǁĞƌĞŶŽƚĞĚĂďŽǀĞƚŚĞůŝŶĞĂŶĚĞǀĞŶƚƐƚŚĂƚŚŝŶĚĞƌĞĚĂŶŝĚĞĂ ƐƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐǁĞƌĞƉůĂĐĞĚďĞůŽǁƚŚĞůŝŶĞ
131313
13
1313$ 13
13
1313
amp(
amp)
Source Tamara Carleton 2012
232
Instructionsϭ ƌĂǁĂƐƚƌĂŝŐŚƚůŝŶĞƚŚĂƚƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚƐ
ƚŚĞƌĞĐŽŵŵĞŶĚĞĚƌŽƵƚĞĨŽƌŶĞǁŝĚĞĂƐǁŝƚŚŝŶLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶŽƌŐƌŽƵƉͿĂŶĚŶŽƚĞĂůůƚŚĞŵĂũŽƌŵŝůĞƐƚŽŶĞƐLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉƐŚŽƵůĚĨŽůůŽǁĨŽƌƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵůĂƉƉƌŽǀĂůƚŽĞdžĞĐƵƚĞdŚĞƐƚĂƌƟŶŐƉŽŝŶƚŝƐƚŚĞŝŶŝƟĂůĐŽŶĐĞƉƚďLJĂŶŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůŽƌƚĞĂŵĂŶĚƚŚĞĞŶĚƉŽŝŶƚŝƐǁŚĞŶƚŚĞŝĚĞĂŝƐĨƵůůLJĂĐĐĞƉƚĞĚďLJŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚtĞǁŝůůĐĂůůƚŚŝƐƚŚĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǁĂƚĞƌůŝŶĞ
Ϯ EŽǁŝĚĞŶƟĨLJϮͲϰĚŝīĞƌĞŶƚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝĚĞĂƐƚŚĂƚǁĞƌĞƉƵƌƐĞĚǁŝƚŚŝŶLJŽƵƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂŶĚƐƚĂƌƚƚŚĞŝƌƉĂƚŚƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƐĂŵĞƐƚĂƌƟŶŐƉŽŝŶƚĂƚƚŚĞůĞŌƐŝĚĞŽĨƚŚĞƐƚƌĂŝŐŚƚůŝŶĞ
ŌĞƌ LJŽƵƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŚĂƐ ĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚ ĂŶŝŶŝƟĂůĂŶĂůLJƐŝƐǁĞƐƵŐŐĞƐƚLJŽƵƌĞŇĞĐƚďƌŝĞŇLJ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ LJŽƵ ŚĂǀĞ ůĞĂƌŶĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƌĞĂƌĞƐŽŵĞƋƵĞƐƟŽŶƐƚŽĨƌĂŵĞLJŽƵƌŐƌŽƵƉ ƐĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶĂŶĚĂĚǀĂŶĐĞLJŽƵƌƚŚŝŶŬŝŶŐ
YƵĞƐƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚĞĂŵĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶͻ tŚŝĐŚŝĚĞĂƐĨŽůůŽǁĞĚƐŝŵŝůĂƌ
ƉĂƚŚƐͻ tŚĞƌĞĚŝĚĐĞƌƚĂŝŶƉĞĂŬƐŽĐĐƵƌͻ tŚĂƚƐŬŝůůƐĂƌĞƌĞƋƵŝƌĞĚƚŽŵŽǀĞ
ĂŶŝĚĞĂĂůŽŶŐ
ϯ ampŽƌĞĂĐŚŝĚĞĂŶŽƚĞĂůůƚŚĞĂĐƟŽŶƐŽƌŵĂũŽƌƐƚĞƉƐƚŚĂƚĂůůŽǁĞĚĞĂĐŚŝĚĞĂƚŽŵŽǀĞĂŚĞĂĚdŚĞƐĞĂĐƟŽŶƐŵĂLJŝŶĐůƵĚĞƉƌŽƉŽƐĂůĚĞĂĚůŝŶĞƐĚĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶƐĨƵŶĚŝŶŐĞǀĂůƵĂƟŽŶƐĐŽŵŵŝƩĞĞƌĞǀŝĞǁƐŽƌƌĞǀŝĞǁďLJŽƚŚĞƌƵŶŝƚƐĂŶĚƐƚĂŬĞŚŽůĚĞƌƐŽƵƚƐŝĚĞLJŽƵƌĚŝǀŝƐŝŽŶ
ϰ ƌĂǁƚŚĞŝĚĞĂ ƐƉĂƚŚƵƉĂďŽǀĞƚŚĞǁĂƚĞƌůŝŶĞŝĨĂƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌĂĐƟŽŶŽƌŐƌŽƵƉĂĐĐĞůĞƌĂƚĞƐƚŚĞŝĚĞĂ ƐƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐƌĂǁƚŚĞƉĂƚŚĚŽǁŶƵŶĚĞƌƚŚĞůŝŶĞŝĨĂŶĂĐƟŽŶŽƌŐƌŽƵƉƐůŽǁƐĚŽǁŶŽƌŚŝŶĚĞƌƐƚŚĞŝĚĞĂ ƐƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐ
ї^ĞĞƚŚĞĂĚũĂĐĞŶƚĚŝĂŐƌĂŵĨŽƌĂŶĂŶŶŽƚĂƚĞĚĞdžĂŵƉůĞdŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶƐĐŽƌƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌƐŝŶƚŚĞĚŝĂŐƌĂŵ
233
1 On the straight line
we note the standard
milestones an idea
must undergo which
usually starts during
an ideation session at
our companyrsquos annual
RampD planning offsite
2 We select two ideas that were pursued in the past year one which stalled after several months and another which quickly got the attention of the CTO
3 We then trace each idearsquos progress marking specific events in its timeline
4 We drew the path up above the ldquowater linerdquo when a particular event moved the idea ahead and drew the path down when the idea slowed down for any reason
131313
13
1313$ 13
13
1313
amp(
amp)
Source Tamara Carleton 2012
234
Drawing insights amp implicationsLJĐŽŵƉĂƌŝŶŐƚŚĞƉĂƚŚƐŽĨƚǁŽƉƌĞǀŝŽƵƐŝĚĞĂƐ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĂŵ ƌĞĂĸƌŵĞĚ ƚŚĂƚ ƚŚĞƌĞĂů ƉĂƚŚ ĨŽƌ ĂŶ ŝĚĞĂ ǁĂƐ Ă ŵŝdž ŽĨ ƚŚĞĨŽƌŵĂůƌŽƵƚĞǁŝƚŚ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂůŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐ ŶƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌ ƚŚĞLJƐĂǁƚŚĂƚŽŶĞŝĚĞĂƐůŽǁĞĚĚŽǁŶĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂďůLJĨƌŽŵŝŶĐĞƉƟŽŶƵŶƟůŝƚĐŽŵƉůĞƚĞĚƐƚĂůůĞĚKŶĨƵƌƚŚĞƌƌĞŇĞĐƟŽŶƚŚĞƚĞĂŵƐĂǁƚŚĂƚ
ƚŚĞŝĚĞĂďĞůŽǁƚŚĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǁĂƚĞƌ ůŝŶĞǁĂƐŚĞĂǀŝůLJ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJͲůĞĚ dŚĞ ŝĚĞĂĚŝĚŶŽƚŐŽƚŚƌŽƵŐŚĂƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚĨĞĂƐŝďŝůŝƚLJƐƚƵĚLJŶŽƌĚŝĚŝƚŝŶĐůƵĚĞĂŶLJƵƐĞƌĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬ^ŝŶĐĞƚŚĞŝƌ ƚĞĂŵ ŽƉĞƌĂƚĞĚ ŝŶ ĂŶ ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐͲĚƌŝǀĞŶĐƵůƚƵƌĞƚŚĞLJŬŶĞǁŝƚǁĂƐĐŽŵŵŽŶĂŶĚ ŚŝŐŚůLJ ĂĐĐĞƉƚĂďůĞ ƚŽ ƉƌŽƉŽƐĞ ĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉ ŶĞǁ ŝĚĞĂƐ ďĂƐĞĚ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ Ă ŶĞǁ
ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ dŚĞĚƌĂǁďĂĐŬǁĂƐƚŚĂƚŵƵĐŚĞīŽƌƚǁĂƐƐƉĞŶƚĚƵƌŝŶŐůĂƚĞƌƐƚĂŐĞƐůŽŽŬŝŶŐĨŽƌ ƉŽƚĞŶƟĂůŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ ĂŶĚ ĂůƐŽ ƌĞǁŽƌŬŝŶŐƚŚĞƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůƐŽůƵƟŽŶĂƌŽƵŶĚƵŶĞdžƉĞĐƚĞĚƵƐĞƌ ĨĞĞĚďĂĐŬ Ŷ ĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚ ƚŚĞ ŵŽƌĞƐƵĐĐĞƐƐĨƵů ŝĚĞĂ ŝŶĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞĚ ĂŶ ŝŶĨŽƌŵĂůĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌ ƉŝůŽƚ ƚŚĂƚ ŚĞůƉĞĚ ǀĂůŝĚĂƚĞ ŝƚƐǀĂůƵĞƚŽŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĨƌŽŵƚŚĞƐƚĂƌƚgtĂƐƚůLJ ƚŚĞƚĞĂŵĚŝĚŶŽƚƵƐĞĂŶLJƐĐĂůĞƐ
ƚŽũƵĚŐĞƉŽƐŝƟǀĞŽƌŶĞŐĂƟǀĞĚŝƌĞĐƟŽŶLJƐŝŵƉůLJĚƌĂǁŝŶŐƚŚĞŝĚĞĂƉĂƚŚƐƵƉŽƌĚŽǁŶƚŚĞLJĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌĞĚƚŚĂƚƉĞĂŬƐŽŶƚŚĞƵƉƉĞƌƐŝĚĞŽĨƚŚĞǁĂƚĞƌůŝŶĞŝƐǁŚĂƚƚŚĞLJǁĂŶƚĞĚƚŽŵŝŵŝĐĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌŶĞǁŝĚĞĂǁŚŝůĞĚŝƉƐŽŶƚŚĞ ůŽǁĞƌ ƐŝĚĞ ŽīĞƌĞĚ ĐůƵĞƐ ŽŶǁŚĂƚ ƚŽĂĚĚƌĞƐƐĞĂƌůLJŽƌ ƐŝŵƉůLJĂǀŽŝĚKǀĞƌĂůů ŝƚǁĂƐĂŐŽŽĚƋƵŝĐŬĞdžĞdžĞƌĐŝƐĞƚŽŚĞůƉƚŚĞŵƉůĂŶĂŚĞĂĚǁŝƚŚĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ
235
The starting proposal
was a good reminder
about the value of
informal actions to
our team
We also realized that other
avenues for execution can
open up such as a new
seed fund established
within another division
Our engineering-driven
culture often leads to a
technology idea looking
for a user for a while
131313
13
1313$ 13
13
1313
amp(
amp)
Source Tamara Carleton 2012
236
Tips amp lessons from othersͻ ^ŽŵĞƚĞĂŵƐůŝŬĞƚŽĚƌĂǁĚĞƉƚŚ
ŵĂƌŬŝŶŐƐĨŽƌůŽǁŵĞĚŝƵŵĂŶĚŚŝŐŚĂďŽǀĞĂŶĚďĞůŽǁƚŚĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶǁĂƚĞƌůŝŶĞĂƐĂǁĂLJƚŽŶŽƚĞƚŚĞĂŵŽƵŶƚŽĨƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐŽƌůĂĐŬŽĨͿĨŽƌĞĂĐŚŝĚĞĂ
ͻ ŚĂƌƚƚŚĞƚƌĂŝůƐŽĨŵƵůƟƉůĞŝĚĞĂƐƐŽLJŽƵƌƚĞĂŵŚĂƐŵŽƌĞƉŽŝŶƚƐƚŽĐŽŵƉĂƌĞĂŶĚĐŽŶƚƌĂƐƚ
ZampgtdKEWhat type of navigator
(eg landmark route
map wanderer hunter)
are you at work
237
Additional examples
Ŷ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ŵŝůŝƚĂƌLJ ƚĞĂŵ ƌĞƐƉŽŶƐŝďůĞ ĨŽƌ ŶĞǁ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐƌĞǀŝĞǁĞĚ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐ ŽĨ ƚǁŽ ƐĞƉĂƌĂƚĞ ƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐ ĂŐĂŝŶƐƚ ƚŚĞŝƌ ŐƌŽƵƉΖƐƌĞĐŽŵŵĞŶĚĞĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉĂƚŚǁŚŝĐŚŚĞůƉĞĚƚŚĞŵĚĞƚĞƌŵŝŶĞǁŚĂƚƚŚĞLJƐŚŽƵůĚĚŽŶĞdžƚĨŽƌƚŚĞŝƌŶĞǁŝĚĞĂ
ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌĂƚĂůĂƌŐĞŵĞĚŝĂĐŽŵƉĂŶLJƌĞŇĞĐƚĞĚŽŶƚŚĞƉĂƚŚĨŽƌĂĐƵƌƌĞŶƚŝŶŝƟĂƟǀĞĚŝƐĐŽǀĞƌŝŶŐƚŚĂƚƉĂƐƚĞǀĞŶƚƐĂĚǀĂŶĐĞĚƚŚĞŝĚĞĂĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĂďůLJďƵƚ ƚŚĂƚĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞĚ ĨƵƚƵƌĞĞǀĞŶƚƐͶĚƌĂǁŶĂŌĞƌĂĚŽƩĞĚǀĞƌƟĐĂůůŝŶĞͶǁŽƵůĚůŝŬĞůLJŚĂŵƉĞƌƚŚĞƚĞĂŵƐƉƌŽŐƌĞƐƐ
copy 2012 William Cockayne amp Tamara Carleton
Pathfinders | method worksheet
My notes
Ϯϯϵ
Η⪲ⱕ⪲䟾⪲ⱕず䟾ずⱕ䟾
ⱕ䠍Ꮯ᪂⪃Ḿ㻑Η^ŵĞůůŝŶŐŝƐďĞƩĞƌƚŚĂŶŶŽƚŚŝŶŐƐĞĞŝŶŐŝƐďĞƩĞƌƚŚĂŶƐŵĞůůŝŶŐ
ƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐŝƐďĞƩĞƌƚŚĂŶƐĞĞŝŶŐĚŽŝŶŐŝƐďĞƩĞƌƚŚĂŶƵŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐĂŶĚĚŽŝŶŐƐŚŽǁƐƚƌƵĞůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐͿ
ͶŚŝŶĞƐĞƉƌŽǀĞƌď
ΗƐŽũĂŬĂůŽũĂŬĂŶŶĂƩĂĂƉLJLJƚććǀĂŝŬŬĞŝƐĂŝƐŝŬĂĂŶΗampŝƐŚŝŶŐĨŽƌďŝŐĮƐŚŝƐǁŽƌƚŚŝƚĞǀĞŶŝĨLJŽƵĚŽŶƚĐĂƚĐŚŽŶĞͿ
ͶampŝŶŶŝƐŚƉƌŽǀĞƌď
240
APPENDIX
Shortcuts
Sponsors 241
Development team 243
Research partners 246
Terms of use 248
Suggested readings 249
Data sources 255
241
The playbook team gratefully acknowledges generous support from Tekes and the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) in Finland
TEKESƐ ƚŚĞ ƚŚĞ ampŝŶŶŝƐŚ ampƵŶĚŝŶŐ ŐĞŶĐLJ ĨŽƌdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂŶĚ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ dĞŬĞƐ ŝƐ ƚŚĞŵŽƐƚ ŝŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚ ƉƵďůŝĐůLJ ĨƵŶĚĞĚ ĞdžƉĞƌƚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ĨŽƌ ĮŶĂŶĐŝŶŐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂŶĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝŶampŝŶůĂŶĚdŚĞ ĂŐĞŶĐLJ ƐƚƐ ǁŝĚĞͲƌĂŶŐŝŶŐ
ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ ŝŶ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƟĞƐ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ĂŶĚ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐĞĐƚŽƌƐ dĞŬĞƐ ƉƌŽŵŽƚĞƐ Ă ďƌŽĂĚͲďĂƐĞĚǀŝĞǁ ŽŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ďĞƐŝĚĞƐ ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĐĂů ďƌĞĂŬƚŚƌŽƵŐŚƐ dĞŬĞƐĞŵƉŚĂƐŝnjĞƐ ƚŚĞ ƐŝŐŶŝĮĐĂŶĐĞ ŽĨ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞͲƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ĚĞƐŝŐŶ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ĂŶĚ ƐŽĐŝĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐ
About our sponsors
dĞŬĞƐ ǁŽƌŬƐ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ ƚŽƉ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞ
ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐĂŶĚƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƵŶŝƚƐŝŶampŝŶůĂŶĚǀĞƌLJ LJĞĂƌ dĞŬĞƐ ĮŶĂŶĐĞƐ ƐŽŵĞ ϭϱϬϬďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĂŶĚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐĂŶĚĂůŵŽƐƚϲϬϬƉƵďůŝĐƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐĂƚƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚŝŶƐƟƚƵƚĞƐĂŶĚƉŽůLJƚĞĐŚŶŝĐƐZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐŝƐƚĂƌŐĞƚĞĚƚŽƉƌŽũĞĐƚƐƚŚĂƚĐƌĞĂƚĞŝŶƚŚĞůŽŶŐͲƚĞƌŵƚŚĞŐƌĞĂƚĞƐƚďĞŶĞĮƚƐĨŽƌƚŚĞĞĐŽŶŽŵLJĂŶĚƐŽĐŝĞƚLJ dĞŬĞƐĚŽĞƐŶŽƚĚĞƌŝǀĞĂŶLJ ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂů ƉƌŽĮƚ ĨƌŽŵ ŝƚƐ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ ŶŽƌĐůĂŝŵĂŶLJŝŶƚĞůůĞĐƚƵĂůƉƌŽƉƌŝĞƚĂƌLJƌŝŐŚƚƐ
їǁǁǁƚĞŬĞƐĮĞŶ
242
Lappeenranta University of Technology ǀĞƌ ƐŝŶĐĞ ŝƚƐ ĨŽƵŶĚĂƟŽŶ ŝŶ ϭϵϲϵgtĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ dĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJgthdͿ ŚĂƐ ďƌŽƵŐŚƚ ƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂŶĚ ĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƐ ŝŶ Ă ƉŝŽŶĞĞƌŝŶŐ ƐƉŝƌŝƚgthd Ɛ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐ ĨŽĐƵƐ ĂƌĞĂƐ ĂƌĞ ŐƌĞĞŶĞŶĞƌŐLJ ĂŶĚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƚŚĞ ĐƌĞĂƟŽŶŽĨ ƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďůĞ ĐŽŵƉĞƟƟǀĞŶĞƐƐ ĂŶĚŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶ ĂƐ Ă ŚƵď ŽĨ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂůZƵƐƐŝĂŶ ƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐ gthd Ɛ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂůƐĐŝĞŶƟĮĐ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ ĐŽŶƐŝƐƚƐ ŽĨ ϳϬϬϬƐƚƵĚĞŶƚƐĂŶĚĞdžƉĞƌƚƐ
^ĞĞŵŽƌĞĂďŽƵƚampŝŶůĂŶĚƐŐƌĞĞŶĞƐƚĐĂŵƉƵƐĂƚїǁǁǁŐƌĞĞŶĐĂŵƉƵƐĮĞŶ
gtĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽůŽĨŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƌĞŐŝŽŶĂů ƵŶŝƚ ŽĨ gthd gtĂŚƟ ^ĐŚŽŽů ŽĨŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶgt^ͿǁĂƐĞƐƚĂďůŝƐŚĞĚŝŶϭϵϵϲĂƐĂŵƵůƟĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĂƌLJ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚƵŶŝƚ ĨŽĐƵƐĞĚŽŶƉƌĂĐƟĐĞͲďĂƐĞĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶgt^ĂƉƉůŝĞƐĂǁŝĚĞĐŽŶĐĞƉƚŽĨ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶdǁŽŐŽĂůƐĂƌĞƚŽďƌĞĂŬƚŚĞƚƌĂĚŝƟŽŶĂůůŝŶĞĂƌŵŽĚĞůŽĨŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ƚŽ ŽǀĞƌĐŽŵĞ ďŽƵŶĚĂƌŝĞƐƚŚƌŽƵŐŚ ŝŶƚĞůůĞĐƚƵĂů ĐƌŽƐƐͲĨĞƌƟůŝnjĂƟŽŶdŚĞ ǁŽƌŬ ŽĨ gt^ ŝƐ ĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝnjĞĚ ďLJƐƚƌŽŶŐŝŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶďĞƚǁĞĞŶƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐƉƉƌŽdžŝŵĂƚĞůLJ ϯϬ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌƐ ĂŶĚ
ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞƌƐ ǁŽƌŬ ƚŽŐĞƚŚĞƌ Ăƚ gt^ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƟŶŐ ƚŚĞ ǀĂƌŝŽƵƐ ĚŝƐĐŝƉůŝŶĞƐŽĨ ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐ ƐĐŝĞŶĐĞƐ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƐ ĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ ƐŽĐŝĂů ƐĐŝĞŶĐĞƐĂƌƚƐƚŚĞĂƚƌĞĂŶĚŐĞŽŐƌĂƉŚLJ
ampŝĞůĚƐŽĨƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚŝŶĐůƵĚĞͻ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐLJƐƚĞŵƐĐŽůůĞĐƟǀĞ
ĐƌĞĂƟǀŝƚLJ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉŽůŝĐLJͻ DĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚŽĨĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ
ŬŶŽǁůĞĚŐĞͻ ŶƚƌĞƉƌĞŶĞƵƌƐŚŝƉŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ
ĂŶĚůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉŶĞƚǁŽƌŬƐͻ ^ĞƌǀŝĐĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐͻ WĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞŵĞĂƐƵƌĞŵĞŶƚ
ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟǀŝƚLJĂŶĚŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĂĐĐŽƵŶƟŶŐ
gt^ ĐŽŶƚƌŝďƵƚĞƐ ĂĐƟǀĞůLJ ƚŽ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŝŶŐĂƉƉƌŽĂĐŚĞƐ ŵĞƚŚŽĚŽůŽŐŝĞƐ ĂŶĚĞǀĂůƵĂƟŽŶƚŽŽůƐĨŽƌŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐŝŶŐĂƉƉůLJŝŶŐĂŶĚ ĚŝƐƐĞŵŝŶĂƟŶŐ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐĂŶĚ ƌĞƐƵůƚƐ ŽĨ ZΘ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ ŝŶ ƉƵďůŝĐƉƌŝǀĂƚĞĂŶĚƚŚŝƌĚƐĞĐƚŽƌŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐgt^ ƐƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚĐŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟŽŶƌĞƐƵůƚƐ
ĂƌĞ ŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐĞĚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ Ŭ ĞŶƟƚůĞĚWƌĂĐƟĐĞͲĂƐĞĚ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŶƐŝŐŚƚƐƉƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ ĂŶĚ WŽůŝĐLJ ŵƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ^ƉƌŝŶŐĞƌ ϮϬϭϮͿїǁǁǁůƵƚĮůĂŚƟĞŶ
243
Tamara Carleton PhDdĂŵĂƌĂ ĂƌůĞƚŽŶ WŚ ŝƐ ĨŽƵŶĚĞƌ ĂŶĚĐŚŝĞĨĞdžĞĐƵƟǀĞŽĨŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶgtĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉŽĂƌĚgtgtĂŐůŽďĂů ůĞĂĚĞƌ ŝŶ ƚŚĞĚĞƐŝŐŶŽĨƚŽŽůƐĂŶĚƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƐƚŚĂƚĞŶĂďůĞƌĂĚŝĐĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ůŝĞŶƚ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐ ŚĂǀĞŝŶĐůƵĚĞĚ ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞ ĂŶŬ DŝĐƌŽƐŽŌ^ĂŵƐƵŶŐ^W dĞŬĞƐĂŶĚsŽůǀŽ ĂƌůĞƚŽŶ ĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJ ƐĞƌǀĞƐ ĂƐ Ă ĨĞůůŽǁ
Ăƚ ƚŚĞ h^ ŚĂŵďĞƌ ŽĨ ŽŵŵĞƌĐĞampŽƵŶĚĂƟŽŶ ĞdžƉůŽƌŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŵĞƐ ŽĨŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ĂďƵŶĚĂŶĐĞ ƚŚĂƚ ĂīĞĐƚŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽƐƉĞƌŝƚLJWƌĞǀŝŽƵƐůLJ ƐŚĞ ǁĂƐ Ă ĨĞůůŽǁ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞampŽƵŶĚĂƟŽŶ ĨŽƌ ŶƚĞƌƉƌŝƐĞ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂŶĚĂůƐŽĂĨĞůůŽǁĨŽƌƚŚĞĂLJƌĞĂ^ĐŝĞŶĐĞĂŶĚŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŽŶƐŽƌƟƵŵ ĂƌůĞƚŽŶ ƚĞĂĐŚĞƐ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂů
ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJŝŶ ^ƚĂŶĨŽƌĚ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ Ɛ ^ĐŚŽŽů ŽĨŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐĞdžĞĐƵƟǀĞĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƌĂǁŝŶŐ ŽŶ ŚĞƌ ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞĂƌůĞƚŽŶ Ɛ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĂŐĞŶĚĂ ĨŽĐƵƐĞƐ ŽŶŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƉĂƌƟĐƵůĂƌůLJ ŝƐƐƵĞƐƌĞůĂƚĞĚƚŽƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůǀŝƐŝŽŶĂƌLJůĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉ
ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĐƵůƚƵƌĞ ƌĞŐŝŽŶĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĂŶĚ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ dŚŝƐ ǁŽƌŬ ďƵŝůĚƐŽŶŚĞƌƉŝŽŶĞĞƌŝŶŐƐƚƵĚLJŽĨƚŚĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ h^ ĞĨĞŶƐĞ ĚǀĂŶĐĞĚZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚWƌŽũĞĐƚƐŐĞŶĐLJZWͿ ĨŽƌŵĞƌ ŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ ĐŽŶƐƵůƚĂŶƚ
Ăƚ ĞůŽŝƩĞ ŽŶƐƵůƟŶŐ gtgtW ĂƌůĞƚŽŶƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝnjĞĚ ŝŶ ĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ ƐŽůƵƟŽŶƐ ŝŶĞŶƚĞƌƉƌŝƐĞ ĂƉƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ ĐƵƐƚŽŵĞƌĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ ĂŶĚ ŵĂƌŬĞƟŶŐ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ƚĞůŽŝƩĞƐŚĞĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚƚǁŽƉƌŽƉƌŝĞƚĂƌLJŵĞƚŚŽĚŽůŽŐŝĞƐƚŚĞƵƐƚŽŵĞƌdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞƵĚŝƚ ĂŶĚ WĞƌƐŽŶĂ ĞƐŝŐŶ ǁŚŝĐŚ ǁĞƌĞŝŶĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞĚŝŶƚŽĐůŝĞŶƚƐĞƌǀŝĐĞŽīĞƌŝŶŐƐ ĂƌůĞƚŽŶ ŚŽůĚƐ Ă ĚŽĐƚŽƌĂƚĞ ŝŶ
ŵĞĐŚĂŶŝĐĂů ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐ ĨƌŽŵ ^ƚĂŶĨŽƌĚhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ĂŵĂƐƚĞƌƐŽĨƐĐŝĞŶĐĞŝŶƉƵďůŝĐƌĞůĂƟŽŶƐ ĨƌŽŵ ^LJƌĂĐƵƐĞ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ĂŶĚĂ ďĂĐŚĞůŽƌ Ɛ ĚĞŐƌĞĞ ŝŶ ĐŽŵŵƵŶŝĐĂƟŽŶĨƌŽŵdŚĞĞŽƌŐĞtĂƐŚŝŶŐƚŽŶhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ^ŚĞ ŚĂƐ ďĞĞŶ ƉƵďůŝƐŚĞĚ ŝŶ Ă ǀĂƌŝĞƚLJ ŽĨƚĞĐŚŶŝĐĂůũŽƵƌŶĂůƐĂƐǁĞůůĂƐƚŚĞŐĞŶĞƌĂůďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ƉƌĞƐƐ DŽƐƚ ƌĞĐĞŶƚůLJ ĂƌůĞƚŽŶĞĚŝƚĞĚ ƚŚĞ Ŭ ^ƵƐƚĂŝŶŝŶŐ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟŽŶDŽĚĞůƐĨŽƌĂŽŵƉůĞdžtŽƌůĚ
About the development team
^ƉƌŝŶŐĞƌ ϮϬϭϭͿ ƚŚĂƚ ĞdžƉůŽƌĞƐ ĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐŝŶƐƟƚƵƟŽŶĂů ŵŽĚĞůƐ ŽĨ ƐƵƐƚĂŝŶĂďůĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĨƌŽŵ ŵƵůƟƉůĞ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂůǀŝĞǁƉŽŝŶƚƐ ^ŚĞ ŝƐ ĨƌĞƋƵĞŶƚůLJ ŝŶǀŝƚĞĚƚŽ ĚŝƐĐƵƐƐ ŚĞƌǁŽƌŬ ĂŶĚ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞhŶŝƚĞĚ^ƚĂƚĞƐĂŶĚĂďƌŽĂĚ
244
William Cockayne PhDtŝůůŝĂŵŽĐŬĂLJŶĞWŚŝƐĂƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŝŶŶŽǀĂƚŽƌĂŶĚůĞĂĚĞƌ ĞŝƐƚŚĞKĂŶĚĨŽƵŶĚĞƌŽĨĂŶĚƐƚĂŶĚŶĐǁŚŝĐŚŝƐĂŶĂǁĂƌĚͲǁŝŶŶŝŶŐĂƉƉůŝĐĂƚŝŽŶĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞƌŽĨĐŽŶƚĞŶƚĚŝŐŝƚĂůŵĞĚŝĂĂŶĚĞĚƵĐĂƚŝŽŶĂůƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐWƌĞǀŝŽƵƐůLJ ŚĞ ŚĞůĚ ƐĞŶŝŽƌ ƌŽůĞƐ
ŝŶ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ Ăƚ ^lt dĞůĞĐŽŵ ŵĞƌŝĐĂƐĂƐƚŵĂŶltŽĚĂŬĂŝŵůĞƌĞŶnjĂŶĚƉƉůĞŽŵƉƵƚĞƌ ƐĞĂƐŽŶĞĚ ĞŶƚƌĞƉƌĞŶĞƵƌ ŽĐŬĂLJŶĞǁĂƐĂůƐŽĐŽͲĨŽƵŶĚĞƌĂŶĚĐŚŝĞĨƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŽĸĐĞƌŽĨ^ĐŽƵƚůĞĐƚƌŽŵĞĚŝĂĂ ĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌ ŵŽďŝůĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ ƚŚĂƚƉŝŽŶĞĞƌĞĚ ŵŽďŝůĞ ĂĚǀĞƌƟƐŝŶŐ ƐŽĐŝĂůŵĞĚŝĂĂŶĚďĂƌĐŽĚĞƐŽŶŵŽďŝůĞĚŝƐƉůĂLJƐŽĐŬĂLJŶĞ ďƌŝŶŐƐ ŚŝƐ ƌĞĂůͲǁŽƌůĚ
ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ ƚŽ ƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐ Ğ ƚĞĂĐŚĞƐĞŵĞƌŐŝŶŐ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĞƐ ĂŶĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJŝŶDϰϭϬŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶΘampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚǁŝƚŚŝŶ ƚŚĞ ^ĐŚŽŽů ŽĨ ŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐ Ăƚ^ƚĂŶĨŽƌĚ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĐŬĂLJŶĞ ŚĂƐĂůƐŽ ŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐĞĚ ŶĞǁ ĐƵƌƌŝĐƵůĂ ŝŶ ŚŝŐŚͲƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ĞŶƚƌĞƉƌĞŶĞƵƌƐŚŝƉ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞƟĞƌͲŽŶĞ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƟĞƐ ĂĐƌŽƐƐ^ǁŝƚnjĞƌůĂŶĚĂŶĚĂůƐŽŝŶĚŝŐŝƚĂůŵŽĚĞůŝŶŐǀŝƌƚƵĂů ĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚƐ ĂŶĚ ƐŝŵƵůĂƟŽŶDKs^Ϳ Ăƚ ƚŚĞ EĂǀĂů WŽƐƚŐƌĂĚƵĂƚĞ^ĐŚŽŽůŝŶĂůŝĨŽƌŶŝĂŽĐŬĂLJŶĞ ŚŽůĚƐ Ă ĚŽĐƚŽƌĂƚĞ ŝŶ
ŵĞĐŚĂŶŝĐĂů ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ Ă ŵĂƐƚĞƌƐŽĨ ƐĐŝĞŶĐĞ ŝŶ ĐŽŵƉƵƚĞƌ ƐĐŝĞŶĐĞ Ğ ŝƐ ĂƌĞŐƵůĂƌ ƐƉĞĂŬĞƌ ĂŶĚ ĂĚǀŝƐŽƌ ŽŶ ƚŽƉŝĐƐŽĨ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂů ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĚŝƐƌƵƉƟǀĞ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĞŶƚƌĞƉƌĞŶĞƵƌƐŚŝƉ Ğ ŚŽůĚƐ ŵƵůƟƉůĞƉĂƚĞŶƚƐ ĂŶĚ ŚĂƐ ĂƵƚŚŽƌĞĚ ŵĂŶLJƉƵďůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐ ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ŬDŽďŝůĞŐĞŶƚƐWƌĞŶƟĐĞĂůůϭϵϵϴͿ
245
Antti-Jussi Tahvanainen PhDŶƫͲƵƐƐŝ dĂŚǀĂŶĂŝŶĞŶ WŚ ŚĂƐďĞĞŶƉĂƌƚŽĨƚŚĞƉůĂLJŬĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƚĞĂŵĂƐĂƐĞŶŝŽƌƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌ ŝŶƚŚĞgtĂŚƟ^ĐŚŽŽů ŽĨ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ Ăƚ gtĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ dĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ŝŶ ampŝŶůĂŶĚ ĂŶĚĂƐ Ă ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ƐĐŚŽůĂƌ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ ĞŶƚĞƌĨŽƌ ĞƐŝŐŶ ZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ĂĸůŝĂƚĞĚ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ Θ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ůĂď Ăƚ ^ƚĂŶĨŽƌĚhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŝƐ ĂƌĞĂ ŽĨ ĞdžƉĞƌƟƐĞ ůŝĞƐ ŝŶƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĂŶĚƉŽůŝĐLJ^ŝŶĐĞ ϮϬϬϮ dĂŚǀĂŶĂŝŶĞŶ ŚĂƐ ǁŽƌŬĞĚ
ĂƐĂƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞĐŽŶŽŵŝƐƚĂƚƚŚĞZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚŶƐƟƚƵƚĞŽĨ ƚŚĞampŝŶŶŝƐŚĐŽŶŽŵLJdgtͿĐŽŶĚƵĐƟŶŐƐƚƵĚŝĞƐŽŶĞŶƚƌĞƉƌĞŶĞƵƌƐŚŝƉƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƚƌĂŶƐĨĞƌ ŶĂƟŽŶĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƐLJƐƚĞŵƐ ĂŶĚ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƚŽƉŝĐƐ Ŷ ϮϬϬϵ
dĂŚǀĂŶĂŝŶĞŶ ǁĂƐ ĐůŽƐĞůLJ ŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚ ŝŶƚŚĞ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂů ĞǀĂůƵĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞampŝŶŶŝƐŚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƐLJƐƚĞŵ ŶŶŽǀĂůͿĐŽŵŵŝƐƐŝŽŶĞĚ ďLJ ampŝŶůĂŶĚ Ɛ DŝŶŝƐƚƌLJ ŽĨŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚĂŶĚƚŚĞĐŽŶŽŵLJdĂŚǀĂŶĂŝŶĞŶ ŚĂƐ ƚĂƵŐŚƚ ďŝŽͲ
ĞŶƚƌĞƉƌĞŶĞƵƌƐŚŝƉ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƚƌĂŶƐĨĞƌ ĂŶĚ ĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚ Ăƚ ƚŚĞ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨĞůƐŝŶŬŝ ĂůƚŽ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ dĂŵƉĞƌĞ Ğ ŚŽůĚƐ ĂĚŽĐƚŽƌĂƚĞ ŝŶ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌŝĂů ĞŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐ ĂŶĚŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ ƐƉĞĐŝĂůŝnjŝŶŐ ŝŶ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJĂŶĚ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂů ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ĨƌŽŵ ĂůƚŽhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ampŝŶůĂŶĚͿ ĂŶĚ Ă D^Đ ŝŶĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƐ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĂŶĚ ƉŽůŝĐLJ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ ĞůƐŝŶŬŝ ^ĐŚŽŽů ŽĨĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƐampŝŶůĂŶĚͿ
246
Vesa Harmaakorpi DScsĞƐĂĂƌŵĂĂŬŽƌƉŝ^ĐdĞĐŚͿ ŝƐĞĂŶŽĨ ampĂĐƵůƚLJ ŽĨ dĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ DĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĂŶĚ Ă WƌŽĨĞƐƐŽƌ ŽĨ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ^LJƐƚĞŵƐŝŶ ƚŚĞ gtĂŚƟ ^ĐŚŽŽů ŽĨ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ Ăƚ ƚŚĞgtĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ dĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŝŶ ampŝŶůĂŶĚ ŝƐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚƐ ĂƌĞŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƐLJƐƚĞŵƐ ĂŶĚ ƉƌŽĐĞƐƐĞƐ ĂƐǁĞůůĂƐŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚƐůŝŶŬĞĚƚŽƌĞŐŝŽŶĂůĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚĂƌŵĂĂŬŽƌƉŝ ŝƐĂƉŝŽŶĞĞƌŝŶƚŚĞƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚŽĨƉƌĂĐƟĐĞͲďĂƐĞĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐŝŶampŝŶůĂŶĚ ŝƐ ƉƵďůŝĐĂƟŽŶ ĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐ ŚĂǀĞďĞĞŶĞdžƚĞŶƐŝǀĞĂŶĚŚĞŚĂƐĂůƐŽƌĞĐĞŝǀĞĚŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂů ĂǁĂƌĚƐ ĨŽƌ ŚŝƐ ũŽƵƌŶĂůĂƌƟĐůĞƐŝŶϮϬϬϲĂŶĚϮϬϬϴ
Tuija Oikarinen DScdƵŝũĂ KŝŬĂƌŝŶĞŶ ^Đ ĐŽŶ Θ ƵƐĚŵͿ ǁŽƌŬƐ ĂƐ Ă ƐĞŶŝŽƌ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞƌ ŝŶƚŚĞ gtĂŚƟ ^ĐŚŽŽů ŽĨ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ Ăƚ ƚŚĞgtĂƉƉĞĞŶƌĂŶƚĂ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ dĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJŝŶ ampŝŶůĂŶĚ Ğƌ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚ ŝƐ ŝŶŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂů ƌĞŶĞǁĂůƐƚƵĚŝĞĚ ĨƌŽŵƚŚĞǀŝĞǁƉŽŝŶƚƐ ŽĨ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂů ůĞĂƌŶŝŶŐƉƌĂĐƟĐĞͲďĂƐĞĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ŚƵŵĂŶƌĞƐŽƵƌĐĞƐŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĞƌďĂĐŬŐƌŽƵŶĚŝƐŝŶďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐůŝĨĞĂŶĚĞŶƚƌĞƉƌĞŶĞƵƌƐŚŝƉ
About our research partners
Saku J Maumlkinen PhD^ĂŬƵ DćŬŝŶĞŶ WŚ ŝƐ WƌŽĨĞƐƐŽƌ ŽĨdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂŶĚŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĂƚ dĂŵƉĞƌĞ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ dĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJdhdͿampŝŶůĂŶĚDćŬŝŶĞŶǁĂƐĨŽƌŵĞƌůLJǁŝƚŚƚŚĞĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚŽĨDĂƌŬĞƟŶŐampĂĐƵůƚLJŽĨƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĚŵŝŶŝƐƚƌĂƟŽŶ Ăƚ ƚŚĞEĂƟŽŶĂůhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ ^ŝŶŐĂƉŽƌĞ Ğ ƌĞĐĞŝǀĞĚĂŶD^Đ ŝŶ ůĞĐƚƌŝĐĂů ŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ĂWŚ ŝŶ dĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ^ƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ďŽƚŚ ĨƌŽŵdhd ampŝŶůĂŶĚĞŚĂƐǁŝĚĞůLJƉƵďůŝƐŚĞĚ ŝŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂů ĨŽƌƵŵƐ ůŝŬĞ dĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐŝĐĂůampŽƌĞĐĂƐƟŶŐ ĂŶĚ ^ŽĐŝĂů ŚĂŶŐĞ ĂŶĚ dƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶƐŽŶŶŐŝŶĞĞƌŝŶŐDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĂƌĞĂƐ ŽĨ ŚŝƐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚƐǁŚŝĐŚŝŶĐůƵĚĞƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂŶĚŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ ƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJ ĂŶĚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJĂŶĚŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĐŽͲĞǀŽůƵƟŽŶ
247
Pekka Berg PhDWĞŬŬĂ ĞƌŐ ŚŽůĚŝŶŐ Ă WŚ ŝŶ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ ŝƐ ZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ŝƌĞĐƚŽƌ ŽĨ dƵƐŝŶĞƐƐͲŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶͲdĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJͿZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĞŶƚƌĞ ŽĨ ĂůƚŽ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ĂƐ ǁĞůů ĂƐ ƚŚĞĨŽƵŶĚĞƌ ĂŶĚ ĚŝƌĞĐƚŽƌ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚŶƐƟƚƵƚĞƵŶĚĞƌd ĞƌŐDzƐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚƐ ĐŽǀĞƌ ƚŚĞ
ĞdžĂŵŝŶĂƟŽŶ ŽĨ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞ ŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶƐĂŶĚ ŵĂƚƵƌŝƚLJ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ Ăƚ ƚŚĞ ĨŽůůŽǁŝŶŐůĞǀĞůƐ ƚŚĞ ŵĞĐŚĂŶŝƐŵƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŶĂƟŽŶĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƐLJƐƚĞŵƐ ŶĂƟŽŶĂů ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐĂŶĚ ŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶĂů ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ZΘŽƉĞƌĂƟŽŶ dŚĞ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚ ďLJĞƌŐ ŚĂǀĞ ďĞĞŶ ƉŝůŽƚĞĚ ŝŶ ϭϱ ŶĂƟŽŶĂůƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚĂŶĚƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐǁŚŝĐŚƚŽƚĂůĞĚ ϱϬϬ ŵŝůůŝŽŶ ĞƵƌŽƐ ŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶĂďŽƵƚ ĂƉƉƌŽdžŝŵĂƚĞůLJ ϰϬϬ ĞŶƚĞƌƉƌŝƐĞƐ ŝŶ
ampŝŶůĂŶĚĂŶĚĂďƌŽĂĚŚĂƐďĞĞŶĐŽůůĞĐƚĞĚŽŶƚŚĞ ƐƵďũĞĐƚ ŽĨ ŝŵƉƌŽǀŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶĂĐƟǀŝƟĞƐŽĨĮƌŵƐWƌĞǀŝŽƵƐ ƌĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐ ŚĂǀĞ
ƐƚƵĚŝĞĚ ƚŚĞŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ ŝŶƚĂŶŐŝďůĞƐƌĂƉŝĚ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶƉƌĂĐƟĐĞƐ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞŵĞŶƚƐĨŽƌ ŝŶŶŽǀĂƟǀĞ ĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚƐ ŶĂƟŽŶĂůŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ƐLJƐƚĞŵƐ ĂŶĚ ŶĂƟŽŶĂů ZΘƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐĞƌŐ ĂůƐŽ ƚĞĂĐŚĞƐ ŝŶ ƐĞǀĞƌĂů ĐŽƵƌƐĞƐ
ĂƚĂůƚŽhŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJŝƐŵĂŝŶĐŽƵƌƐĞƐĂƌĞŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ WƌŽũĞĐƚ DĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚWZ ĂŶĚ ŽůůĂďŽƌĂƟǀĞ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶDĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚKͲEEK ĞƚǁĞĞŶ ϮϬϬϬ ĂŶĚ ϮϬϬϲ ĞƌŐ ǁĂƐ Ă
ŵĞŵďĞƌŽĨƚŚĞĂƐƐĞƐƐŵĞŶƚŐƌŽƵƉŽĨƚŚĞh ĮŶĂŶĐĞĚ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĞ ŵƉƌŽǀĞŵĞŶƚŽĨ ƚŚĞ YƵĂůŝƚLJ ĂŶĚ īĞĐƟǀĞŶĞƐƐ ŽĨĚƵĐĂƟŽŶĂŶĚgtĞĂƌŶŝŶŐ
248
non-commercial usedŚĞ WůĂLJŬ ĨŽƌ ^ƚƌĂƚĞŐŝĐ ampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚĂŶĚ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ ŝƐ ĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞ ĨŽƌ ĨƌĞĞĚŽǁŶůŽĂĚƚŽŝŶĚŝǀŝĚƵĂůƐĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐĂŶĚŽƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶƐ ďŽƚŚ ĨŽƌͲƉƌŽĮƚ ĂŶĚ ŶŽŶͲƉƌŽĮƚͿĨŽƌŶŽŶͲĐŽŵŵĞƌĐŝĂůƉƵƌƉŽƐĞƐŽŶůLJdŚĞƉůĂLJŬŝƐƉƌŽƚĞĐƚĞĚďLJƚŚĞƌĞĂƟǀĞŽŵŵŽŶƐ ƩƌŝďƵƟŽŶͲEŽŶŽŵŵĞƌĐŝĂůͲ^ŚĂƌĞůŝŬĞ ϯϬhŶƉŽƌƚĞĚ ůŝĐĞŶƐĞ zͲEͲ^ϯϬͿzŽƵĂƌĞĨƌĞĞƚŽĐŽƉLJ ĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƚĞĂŶĚƚƌĂŶƐŵŝƚ ƚŚĞǁŽƌŬĂƐǁĞůůĂƐĂĚĂƉƚƚŚĞǁŽƌŬƵŶĚĞƌĐĞƌƚĂŝŶĐŽŶĚŝƟŽŶƐ
Internal developmentWĂƌƟĞƐ ŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƚĞĚ ŝŶ ĂƉƉůLJŝŶŐ ƚŚĞŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĨŽƌ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚƵŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ƚĞĂĐŚŝŶŐ Žƌ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƉƵƌƉŽƐĞƐŵĂLJƌĞĨĞƌƚŽĂŶŽŶůŝŶĞampY
їǁǁǁŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝŽƉůĂLJŬїĨŽƌĞƐŝŐŚƚƐƚĂŶĨŽƌĚĞĚƵƉůĂLJŬїǁǁǁůƵƚĮŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ
Licensing termsdŚĞ ampŽƌĞƐŝŐŚ ampƌĂŵĞǁŽƌŬ ĂŶĚ ĂůůƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ŵĞƚŚŽĚƐ ĂƌĞ ƉƌŽƉƌŝĞƚĂƌLJ ƚŽŽůƐŽĨ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ gtĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉ ŽĂƌĚ gtgtgtͿ KƚŚĞƌ ƚŚŝƌĚ ƉĂƌƚLJ ƚƌĂĚĞŵĂƌŬƐƌĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞĚ ĂƌĞ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŽƉĞƌƚLJ ŽĨ ƚŚĞŝƌƌĞƐƉĞĐƟǀĞŽǁŶĞƌƐzŽƵŵĂLJŶŽƚƵƐĞƚŚĞgtƚƌĂĚĞŵĂƌŬƐŽƌĂŶLJŽƚŚĞƌƌĞůĂƚĞĚgtŵĞƚŚŽĚŽůŽŐLJ ŝŶ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƟŽŶ ǁŝƚŚ ǁĞďƐŝƚĞƐ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐ ƉĂĐŬĂŐŝŶŐ ŵĂŶƵĂůƐƉƌŽŵŽƟŽŶĂůĂĚǀĞƌƟƐŝŶŐŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůƐŽƌĨŽƌĂŶLJ ŽƚŚĞƌ ƉƵƌƉŽƐĞ ĞdžĐĞƉƚ ƉƵƌƐƵĂŶƚ ƚŽĂŶ ĞdžƉƌĞƐƐ ǁƌŝƩĞŶ ůŝĐĞŶƐŝŶŐ ĂŐƌĞĞŵĞŶƚĨƌŽŵ ŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶ gtĞĂĚĞƌƐŚŝƉ ŽĂƌĚ gtgt
їŽŶƚĂĐƚůŝĐĞŶƐŝŶŐΛŝŶŶŽǀĂƟŽŶŝŽĨŽƌŵŽƌĞŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ
Terms of use