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PlanningforthenextgenerationofsatellitemissionsintheUnitedStates.
qEarthScienceandApplicationsfromSpace– ESASqSpacePlatformRequirementsWorkingGroup- SPRWG
ChristianKummerowColoradoStateUniversity
8thIPWGand5thIWSSMJointWorkshopBologna,3-7October,2016
ESAS2017
§ Sponsors:o NASA—EarthScienceDivisiono NOAA—NESDISo USGS—Climate&LandUseChange(landimaging)
• Thesurveywillalsohavecloseconnectionswiththeagenciescarryingoutinsituandotherrelevantprograms
§ WithintheAcademy:o Collaboration(includingstaff)oftheSpaceStudiesBoard(lead)
withtheBoardonAtmosphericSciencesandClimate,BoardonEarthSciencesandResources,OceanStudiesBoard,PolarResearchBoard,andWaterSciencesandTechnologyBoard.
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• NASA: Hasabacklog of missions recommended in theinauguralsurveyand increased responsibility—without commensurate budgetincreases— starting after theJPSS-1 erafor vertical profiles ofstratospheric and uppertropospheric ozone, solar irradiance, Earthradiation budgetmeasurements,andaltimetry(beyondJason-3).
• NOAA: Stabilizing the weather satellite portfolio and avoiding apotentialgap between theNPPspacecraft and the first of thenext-generation POESsystems, JPSS-1, is a top priority.“Climate”-relatedinstrumentsmovingtoNASA.
• USGS: Landsat-8launchedFeb.2013.USGSinterestedinfuturecapabilitiesforasustainedland-imagingimagingprogram.However,Landsat-9isprojectedtobeanear-rebuildofL-8forlaunchinin2023,possiblyacceleratedto2021toaccountfor3-yeardesignlifeofthethermalinfraredsensor,TIRS.
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SettingforESAS2017
ESAS2017—OverarchingTasks• Assess progressin addressing themajor scientific and application
challengesoutlined in the2007 Earth ScienceDecadal Survey.
• Develop aprioritized list of top-level scienceand applicationobjectivestoguide space-based Earth observationsovera10-yearperiod commencing approximately atthestart of fiscal year 2018(October 1, 2017).
• Identify gaps and opportunities in the programs of record at NASA,NOAA, and USGS in pursuit of the top-level science and applicationchallenges—including space-based opportunities that provide bothsustained and experimental observations.
• Recommend approachestofacilitate thedevelopmentof a robust,resilient, and appropriately balanced U.S. program of Earthobservationsfromspace.Consider:Sciencepriorities,implementation costs,new technologies and platforms,interagencypartnerships,international partners,andthein situ and othercomplementary programs carried out atNSF,DoE, DoA, DoD.
• FindingsduebyJuly2017 4
ESAS2017vs.ESAS2007• Nolonger appropriate tobaserecommendationson anaspirational
budget
• Science-basedvs.Mission-based
• Congressionally-mandatedindependent cost appraisal andtechnicalevaluation(CATE) for big ticket items
• Likely that the science will be “valued” toavoidhaving onerecommendedactivity grow at expenseofall others
• Increasedopportunities toconsider “new space”ideas—new players,smaller and less costly platforms, constellations, hosted payloads-- Challenge:developingcredibleevaluationsoftheirpotential
• Improved consideration ofinternational partners
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SurveyInitialRFIIssuedinlateSeptember2015toinformthesteering
committeeandtheorganizationofthepanels:
1. WhatarethekeychallengesorquestionsforEarthSystemScience acrossthespectrumofbasicresearch,appliedresearch,applications,and/oroperationsinthecomingdecade?
2. Whyarethesechallenge/questionstimelytoaddressnowespeciallywithrespecttoreadiness?
3. Whyarespace-basedobservationsfundamentaltoaddressingthesechallenges/questions?
• >200responsesat:www.nas.edu/esas20176
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ESAS2017StudyPanelsI. GlobalHydrologicalCyclesandWaterResources
Themovement,distribution,andavailabilityofwaterandhowthesearechangingovertime
II. WeatherandAirQuality:MinutestoSubseasonalAtmosphericDynamics,Thermodynamics,Chemistry,andtheirinteractionsatlandandoceaninterfaces
III. MarineandTerrestrialEcosystemsandNaturalResourceManagementBiogeochemicalCycles,EcosystemFunctioning,Biodiversity,andfactorsthatinfluencehealthandecosystemservices
IV. ClimateVariabilityandChange:SeasonaltoCentennialForcings andFeedbacksoftheOcean,Atmosphere,Land,andCryospherewithintheCoupledClimateSystem
V. EarthSurfaceandInterior:DynamicsandHazardsCore,mantle,lithosphere,andsurfaceprocesses,systeminteractions,andthehazardstheygenerate
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Marine&
Terrestrial
Eco-systems
ClimateVariabilityandChange
Weather:Minutes
to
Sub-seasonal
EarthSurface&Interior
GlobalHydrological
Cycles
&Water
Resources
CarbonCycleIntegratingTheme
WaterCycleIntegratingTheme
ExtremeEventsIntegratingTheme
Technology&InnovationsCross-Cut
Applications’ScienceCross-Cut
WORK
INGGR
OUPS*
ESAS2017Panels
*Tentative9
ESAS2017SteeringCommitteeDr.WaleedAbdalati,Co-ChairUniversityofColoradoBoulder-------------------------------------------Mr.StevenJ.BattelBattelEngineering
Dr.StaceyW.BolandJetPropulsionLaboratory
Dr.RobertD.BraunGeorgiaInstituteofTechnology
Dr.ShuyiS.ChenUniversityofMiami
Dr.WilliamE.DietrichUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley
Dr.ScottC.DoneyWoodsHoleOceanographicInst.
Dr.ChristopherB.FieldCarnegieInstitutionforScience
Dr.HelenA.FrickerScrippsInst.ofOceanography
Dr.WilliamB.GailGlobalWeatherCorporation
Dr.SarahT.GilleScrippsInst.ofOceanography
Dr.DennisL.HartmannUniversityofWashington
Dr.DanielJ.JacobHarvardUniversity
Dr.AnthonyC.JanetosBostonUniversity
Dr.EveretteJosephUniversityatAlbany,SUNY
Dr.MollyK.MacauleyResourcesfortheFuture
Dr.JoyceE.PennerUniversityofMichigan
Dr.SorooshSorooshianUniversityofCalifornia,Irvine
Dr.GraemeL.StephensJetPropulsionLaboratory
Dr.ByronD.TapleyTheUniversityofTexasatAustin
Dr.W.StanleyWilsonNOAA/NESDIS,Ret.
SteeringCommitteeStaff-----------------------------------Dr.ArthurCharo, StudyDirectorMs.LaurenEverett, ProgramOfficerMr.CharlesHarris, ResearchAssociateDr.MichaelMoloney, Director,SpaceStudiesBoard
NOAASpacePlatformRequirementsWorkingGroup(SPRWG) TermsofReference
BACKGOUND
•ThecurrentUSweathersatelliteprogramofrecord(POR)providesforcontinuousandevolvingessentialsatelliteservicestoweatherandspaceweathermissionstothe2020sandbeyond.
•TheservicesprovidedinthePORwillfallbelowdesiredassurancelevelsatvariousdates(dependingontheservice)fromapproximately2024to2032.
•Thecurrentconstellationcarrieshighbudgetrequirementsandleavessignificantunmetneedsbehind.
•TheUSGovernmentintendstocontinueweathersatelliteservicesfortheindefinitefutureandtocontinuouslybringnewcapabilitiesintooperationthatpromisetosavelivesindangerousweatherincidents,improveonwarningsofenvironmentalevents,andcontributetoeconomicgrowth.
•Giventhelongtimelinesrequiredforsatelliteacquisition,itisnecessarytomakemajordecisionsaboutnextgenerationsystemstofollowthePORbeginninginFY2017.
TheOfficeofSpaceArchitectureandAdvancedPlanning(OSAAP)withintheNationalEnvironmentalSatelliteDataandInformationService(NESDIS)isconductinganarchitecturestudyinFY16andFY17todeterminethemostcosteffectivespacesegmentarchitecturesforperformingNOAAweather,spaceweather,andenvironmentalremotesensing(excludinglandmapping)missions.Theobjectives,scope,andproductsofthisNOAASatelliteObservingSystemArchitecture(NSOSA)studyaresummarizedintheNSOSAstudyTermsofReference(TOR).
TheSpacePlatformRequirementsWorkingGroup(SPRWG)
TheSpacePlatformRequirementsWorkingGroup(SPRWG)willdetermineneedsandrelativeprioritiesforweather,spaceweatherandenvironmentalremotesensing(excludinglandmapping)space-basedobservationsintheepochof2030insupportoftheNSOSAstudyArchitectureDevelopmentTeam(ADT).Thepriorities,asspecifiedintheNSOSATOR,willbeNOAAoperationalfunctionsfirst,followedbyNOAAnon-operationalfunctions.TheSPRWGhasnodecisionauthoritybeyondthedeliverablesdefinedwithinthisTOR.
SPRWGFunctions: TheSPRWGwillworkinclosecoordinationwiththeADTlead,andADTmembersidentifiedbytheADTlead,indevelopmentofthefollowingproducts.
ValueModel: TheSPRWGwillparticipateindevelopingtheuservaluemodelandwillparticipateindevelopingandreviewingstudyproductsasdiscussedbelow.
Tohaveanagilesystem,NOAAneedsamodelthattrades“value”ofanoperationalmission,orimprovementstoamission,againsttheprojectedcost.
Assumingthatsomeminimumcapacitymustexistfortoday’soperationalfunctions,theSPRWGischargedwithdevelopingthevaluemodelthatrankstodaysaswellaspotentialnewmeasurementsaswellasthevalueofimprovingthemfroma“minimumacceptable”levelto“expected(today’scapabilities)”tothe“maximumeffective”levelforeachsetofobservations– i.e.the“valuemodel”suchthattheoptimaldesigncanalwaysbefoundgivenarealistic“cost”modelandanavailablebudget.
TheSPRWGwilldothisinthreeiterationstoallowforfeedbackbetweenthe“value”modelandthe“cost”model.Currentlyonseconditeration.
TheGoals
I.GlobalHydrologicalCyclesandWaterResourcesThemovement,distribution,andavailabilityofwaterandhowtheseare
changingovertime
1. ANAP.BARROS,DukeUniversity,Co-Chair2. JEFFDOZIER,UniversityofCalifornia,Co-Chair3. EFIFOUFOULA,UniversityofMinnesota4. ANDREARINALDO,Ecole Polytechnique Federale deLausanne5. ERICF.WOOD,PrincetonUniversity6. DARAENTEKHABI,MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology7. GRAHAME.FOGG,UniversityofCalifornia,Davis8. JOHND.BOLTEN,NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenter9. VENKATLAKSHMI,UniversityofSouthCarolina10. NEWSHAAJAMI,StanfordUniversity11. TERRIHOGUE,ColoradoSchoolofMines12. DAVIDC.GOODRICH,USDA-ARS13. EDWINWELLES,Deltares USAInc.14. JEFFREYS.KARGEL,UniversityofArizona15. CHRISTIANKUMMEROW,ColoradoStateUniversity
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II.WeatherandAirQuality:MinutestoSubseasonalAtmosphericDynamics,Thermodynamics,Chemistry,andtheirinteractionsat
landandoceaninterfaces
1. SteveAckerman(Co-chair),UniversityofWisconsin2. NancyBaker,NavalResearchLaboratory(Co-Chair)3. StanleyBenjamin,NOAA-EarthSystemsResearchLaboratory4. MariaPirone,HarrisCorp.5. ElizabethBarnes,ColoradoStateUniversity6. Xubin Zeng,UniversityofArizona7. MarkBourassa,FloridaStateUniversity8. JulieThomas,ScrippsInstitutionofOceanography9. DuaneWaliser,JetPropulsionLaboratory10. BryanDuncan,NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenter11. CharlesKolb,AerodyneResearchCorp.12. ArmisteadRussell,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology13. PhilipArdanuy,INNOVIMCorp.14. Ying-HwaKuo,UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch15. PaulMenzel,UniversityofWisconsin
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IV.ClimateVariabilityandChange:SeasonaltoCentennialForcings andFeedbacksoftheOcean,Atmosphere,Land,andCryosphere
withintheCoupledClimateSystem
1. CAROLANNECLAYSON,WoodsHoleOceanographicInstitution,Co-Chair2. VENKATACHALAMRAMASWAMY,NOAAGeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory,Co-Chair3. ARLYNE.ANDREWS,NOAAEarthSystemResearchLaboratory4. ENRIQUECURCHITSER,RutgersUniversity5. LEE-LUENGFU,JetPropulsionLaboratory6. GUIDOGROSSE,AlfredWegenerInstitute7. RANDALD.KOSTER,NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenter8. SONIAM.KREIDENWEIS,ColoradoStateUniversity9. EMILIOF.MORAN,MichiganStateUniversity10. CORAE.RANDALL,UniversityofColorado,Boulder11. PHILIPJ.RASCH,PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory12. ERICJ.RIGNOT,UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine13. CHRISTOPHERS.RUF,UniversityofMichigan14. ROSSJ.SALAWITCH,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark15. AMYK.SNOVER,UniversityofWashington16. JULIENNEC.STROEVE,NationalSnowandIceDataCenter17. BRUCEA.WIELICKI,NASALangleyResearchCenter18. GARYW.YOHE,WesleyanUniversity 17
SPRWGSubgroups– Oceans(NOS,NMFS,OAR)
• RichEdwing,MichaelFord(Chair),BobAtlas,PamEmch,JimYoe– Weather/climate(NWS,OAR)
• Shortterm(nowcasting,GOEStypeofproduct,etc.)– GerryDittberner,ChrisVelden (Chair),KevinSchrab,SteveGoodman,
SteveAckerman• NWPandlongerscales(fewhourstotwoweeksandbeyond)
– JimYoe (Chair),BobAtlas,MitchGoldberg,LisaCallahan,TomVonderHaar.,ChrisKummerow.
– Spaceweather(NWS)• TomBerger(Chair),DanBaker,LisaCallahan
– AnthesandGail(overviews,contextsetting,international,commercial,communications)