Planning for an Uncertain Future: Promoting adaptation to climate change through Flexible and Forward-looking Decision Making

Findings from the Africa Climate Change Resilience Alliance (ACCRA)

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• In principle, better understanding of future trends can guide adaptation measures and inform development policy

• Science can be a powerful tool in helping decision makers understand future conditions

• Information can influence the outcome of difficult trade-offs and investment choices

Predicting the future?

Source: KNMI Climate Explorer

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Decision-making under uncertainty

• Change and uncertainty are at the heart of development: some trends are more predictable than others

• Despite this, many actors within the development sector are focused on short-term delivery and outcomes

• Common traits across all actors: three- to five-year planning; target setting accordingly to ‘normal’ conditions; little room for manoeuvre or contingency

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Adapting to change and uncertainty

• Highlights the need to promote decision-making that is flexible, forward-looking and able to adapt to the unexpected

• Flexible Forward-looking Decision Making (FFDM) is an entry point to enhancing adaptive capacity amongst people and communities

Entry point for ACCRA phase 2

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What is Flexible Forward-looking Decision Making?

In practical terms decision making is flexible and forward-looking when it:

1. Recognises that change will happen and that it requires adaptation (even if the direction is uncertain)

2. Is able to reason about the impacts of different drivers of change on development trajectories

3. Can identify enablers and initiate steps to overcome barriers to adaptation.

4. Can, where needed, make changes to structures and planning processes to implement adaptation effectively (incremental or transformational)

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Understanding and promoting FFDM

• As a concept, FFDM is relatively straightforward to understand. In practice, it is often hard to relate to complex real-world problems.

• Operationalisation of FFDM is context specific: many different pathways to achieving it

• Need for new approaches to help communicate and promote the principles that make up FFDM to development practitioners

• Use of innovative tools: ‘serious games’ can elicit experiential knowledge, and two-way communication of complex real-world problems

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ACCRA’s research

• Aims are twofold: a) To assess whether FFDM resonates with district decision-makers b) To design, trail and document a ‘game-enabled reflection’ approach

• Research in a single district in three Africa countries: Kotido in Uganda; Gemechis in Ethiopia; and Guijá in Mozambique

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8 ACCRA’s game-enabled reflection approach

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Research methods and findings

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Use of panel surveys

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• FFDM does resonate with district decision-makers and practitioners: can be a useful tool to uncover new opportunities and collaborations

• However, uptake and relevance is challenged by complex political economies in all three countries:1. Top-down nature of planning processes2. Lack of agency with regards to district decision-

making3. Lack of incentives for action on DRR/CCA

What did ACCRA learn?

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What did ACCRA learn?

• Differences in uptake and enthusiasm notes across the three countries (institutional and cultural differences?)

• Follow up interviews suggest that many people associate FFDM primarily with collaboration and coordination, and less so with regards to flexibility and long-term planning

• Approach was effective in changing altitudes towards overcoming barriers to adaptation: increasing recognition that there are always opportunities (however small)

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What did ACCRA learn?

• Communicating an abstract concept is difficult (similar to challenges in promoting resilience)

• A ‘game-enabled reflection’ approach can help decision-makers understand the relevance of FFDM and how it can be operationalised

• Experiential two-way learning and reflection can engaging different stakeholders and encourage uptake

• Requires significant financial and time investments: follow up and technical support needed

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Lessons learned: key messages and recommendations

1. Understanding political context is key to delivering change (political economy, champions of change, political buy-in)

2. Investing in better communication can bring development dividends: development partners can benefit from experimenting with innovative tools that help communicate complexities on planning for the future

3. Changes to perceptions and institutional structures are often slow: development partners need to be prepared to engage longer-term to encourage meaningful change

4. Evaluating new approaches requires difficult trade-offs between research and capacity building (investment in rigorous research v action research v flexibility of approach to maximise CB)

Insights for promoting adaptation, resilience and sustainable

developmentHighlights the need to move towards integrating principles of FFDM into their programming and operations (whether as standalone approach or embedded in others)

Insights from ACCRA’s research point to how traditional understanding of adaptation planning can be enhanced through greater recognition of:

1. That there will always be uncertainty about the future2. The principles of adaptation extending far beyond climate change3. The importance of bridging the national with the local (esp.

incentives/planning/targets)4. That considering alternative pathways and contingencies important to

prevent maladaptation

Other relevant ACCRA publications include:

Jones, L., Ludi, E. and Levine, S. (2010) ‘Towards a Characterisation of Adaptive Capacity: A Framework for Analysing Adaptive Capacity at the Local Level’. Background Note. London: ODI.

Levine, S., Ludi, E. and Jones, L. (2011) Rethinking Support for Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: The Role of Development Interventions. London: ACCRA, ODI.

Ludi, E., Jones, L., and Levine, S. (2012) Changing focus? How to start taking adaptive capacity seriously. Briefi ng Paper 71. London, ODI.

Jones, L., Ludi, E., Beautement, P., Broenner, C. and Bachofen, C. (2013a) ‘New Approaches to Promoting Flexible and Forward-Looking Decision Making: Insights from Complexity Science, Climate Change Adaptation and “Serious Gaming”’. London: ODI.

Jones, L., Ludi, E., Amsalu, A. Artur, L., Bunce, M., Matheson, S., Muhumuza, W. and Zacarias, D. (2013b) ‘The Political Economy of Local Adaptation Planning: Exploring Barriers to Flexible and Forward-looking Decision Making in Three Districts in Ethiopia, Uganda and Mozambique’. London: ODI.

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