Promoting Climate Adaptation Planningin Wisconsin’s Great Lakes

Coastal Communities

Jim Lubner and David HartUniversity of Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute

Green Energy SummitMilwaukee, Wisconsin

March 11, 2011

Presentation Outline

Overview of the WICCI Coastal Communities Working GroupFuture Climate Impacts on the Great LakesVulnerabilitiesAdaptation Strategies

Coastal Communities W.G. Charter

Scope of Effort: The Coastal Communities Working Group will focus on the shoreline and nearshore regions of Wisconsin and how potential climate changes will affect coastal community planning, development pressures and associated coastal natural hazards.Adopted: April 2009

Coastal Communities W.G. Focus Areas

Coastal developmentresidential, commercial, industrial,...

Infrastructureroads, pipes, treatment plants, water intakesshore protection structures

Ports, harbors, and marinasoperationsdredgingcontaminated sediments

Tourismaesthetics, beach health,…

Coastal Communities W.G. Linkages

Stormwater WGWater Resources WGMilwaukee WGGreen Bay WGCross-Working Group Meeting

Manitowoc, January 7, 2010

Wisconsin Natural Hazards Work Group, WCMP

Lake Michigan/Huron Levels – from 1860

Source: GLERL

High: 177.19 (7/97)Low: 175.87 (2/00)Range: 1.32 m (4.3 ft)

This period covers the 2 ½ year duration of the Corps-funded Lake Michigan Potential Damages Study.

Water Levels on Lake Michigan – 2010

Source: USACOE

Future Climate Impacts on GL Levels

Prevailing thought?Warmer temperatures, less snowpack, less ice cover, more evaporation, greater likelihood of lower levels

Great Lakes Climate Change Hydrologic Impact Assessment

Thomas E. Croley II, Research Hydrologist, GLERL, March 13, 2007“In sum, these findings suggest a warming climate can be expected to bring a decline in the water levels of the Great Lakes, particularly the big three upper lakes.”

Source: Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Starting a Public Discussion,UW Sea Grant/WCMP

Future Climate Impacts on GL Levels

Source: Angel and Kunkel, 2009

B1

A1B

A2

2020-34

2050-64

2080-94

Coastal Erosion Risks

Southern Ozaukee County, 2007Source: David Mickelson, Lou Maher

An increase in intense precipitation and storm events along with the impacts of warmer and wetter winters (more freeze/thaw cycles and less lake ice cover) could increase coastal erosion and may lead to more frequent episoidal deep-seated landslides.

Coastal Flooding Risks

Climate change may cause the water levels on Lakes Superior and Michigan to extend beyond the range measured since 1860. Persistent low levels could lull riparian owners into a false sense of security.

Oconto County, 2007Source: David Mickelson, Lou Maher

Vulnerabilities – Development

Residential and commercial structures and property on the coast are vulnerable to erosion and flooding. The migration of the Ordinary High Water Mark (OHWM) towards the lake during extended periods of low lake levels may encourage development in hazardous areas.

Winter storm, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Feb 1973

Source: Visualizing the Great Lakes, Minnesota Sea Grant/EPA

Vulnerabilities – Industry/Utilities

Industrial facilities such as power plants and water/sewer treatment facilities are vulnerable to extreme water levels that exceed their design.Water intakes may be impacted by low water levels.

Jones Island, Milwaukee, 2007Source: David Mickelson, Lou Maher

Vulnerabilities – Infrastructure

Infrastructure such as roads and drainage are susceptible to coastal erosion and flooding.Shore protection structures need to be maintained over time and may not be effective if lake levels extend beyond their design parameters.

Road failure along Lake Michigan in Door County, WI caused by coastal erosion in October 2007

Source: David Hart, UW Sea Grant

Vulnerabilities – Ports, Harbors, MarinasHarbors and marinas are susceptible to extreme water levels.More intense coastal storms could impact dredging and re-suspend contaminated sediments.Changes in water temperatures and circulation patterns could affect mixing patterns in coastal waters.

Superior Harbor, 2007Source: David Mickelson, Lou Maher

Vulnerabilities – Other

Climate change may impact tourism in coastal communities. Issues include beach health and aesthetics for hotels.Natural plant communities along the Great Lakes, including coastal wetlands, may be impacted by persistent extreme lake levels.

Bark Bay, Bayfield County, 2007Source: David Mickelson, Lou Maher

Adaptation – Comprehensive Planning

Wisconsin’s Great Lakes coastal communities have been active developing comprehensive and hazard mitigation plans.As of March 2010, 74 of Wisconsin’s 105 coastal jurisdictions (70%) have adopted plans consistent with the comprehensive planning law.An additional 22 jurisdictions (21%) are actively preparing plans, leaving only nine that are not planning.

Adaptation – Hazard Mitigation Plans

Most Great Lakes coastal counties have hazard mitigation plans approved by Wisconsin Emergency Management.As of February 2009, these include Douglas, Bayfield, Iron, Brown, Kewaunee, Sheboygan, Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties.Only three coastal municipalities (Superior, Sheboygan, and Milwaukee) have approved hazard mitigation plans.

Adaptation – Plans and Climate Change

Next steps in assessing climate adaptation in Wisconsin’s coastal communities include:

acquiring and reviewing adopted comprehensive and hazard mitigation plans to assess if and how climate change issues are addressed,determining if any coastal communities have adopted climate actions plans and assess their quality, andsurveying planners in coastal communities to determine ongoing climate adaption activities and assess if any technical assistance is desired.

Adaptation – Coastal Development

Natural Hazards Work Group, Wisconsin Coastal Management ProgramRecent Reports

Lulloff and Keillor. 2010. Managing Coastal Hazard Risks in Wisconsin's Changing Climate. (Draft)Ohm. 2008. Protecting Coastal Investments: Examples of Regulations for Wisconsin’s Coastal Communities.

Adaptation – Coastal Development

Lulloff/Keillor recommendationsLakeward migration of development should be discouraged by adoption of a High High Water Mark or an elevation-based High Water MarkUpdate the Wisconsin Model Coastal Setback OrdinanceEncourage sound stormwater/wastewater management concepts and/or non‐structural bluff protectionErosion hazard maps and other site‐ and reach‐ specific erosion information should be available to the public via a maintained web site

Adaptation – Ports, Harbors, Marinas

Ports and HarborsAnticipate greater dredging and the need for additional bottom scour protectionDock top elevation modifications and/or modified loading/unloading procedures

MarinasConvert from fixed to floating dockageModify slip dockage schemes – allocate shallow draft vessels to shallow areasUtilize stronger dock designs (especially at junctions)

Adaptation – Other

Shoreline StructuresFrequent inspection of wood structuresEncourage non-structural protectionMonitor for lakebed erosionAdjust structure heights, if needed

Water IntakesTourismBeach Health

David HartUniversity of Wisconsin

Sea Grant Institutedhart@aqua.wisc.edu

http://www.seagrant.wisc.edu/gis/

Coastal Adaptation??!!

Coastal Communities WG Members

Kate Angel, Wisconsin Coastal Management Program

Kate Barrett, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources

Susan Boldt, Wisconsin Emergency Management

Gene Clark, UW Sea Grant Institute (co-chair)

Tuncer Edil, UW-Madison

David Hart, UW Sea Grant Institute (co-chair)

Alan Lulloff, Association of State Floodplain Managers

David Mickelson, UW-Madison

Phil Moy, UW Sea Grant Institute (co-chair)

Chin Wu, UW-Madison