Philippine Climate Outlook¹climate.gov.ph/images/core-cdo/Day-1_Dr.-Lourdes-Tibig-Climate... · Philippine Climate Outlook¹ by ... OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES ... Lowlands Luzon 18.2

Philippine Climate Outlook¹

by

Lourdes V. Tibig²

¹Presented at the Communities for Resilience: Convergence Forum for Davao, Cagayan de Oro, Buayan and Tagoloan River Basins in Cagayan de Oro City on June 8-9, 2016 ²Member, NPTE, CCC

What this presentation hopes to achieve:

• This presentation aims to provide a basic understanding of

-climate change and disaster risks in the Philippine setting; and

-an overview of trends and projections of

what is likely in terms of rainfall,

temperature, temperature extremes

and tropical cyclone occurrence in the next

6 months.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK (MAY – OCTOBER 2016)

Prepared by:

Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)

PAGASA-DOST, Quezon City

Updated: 11 MAY 2016

81st NATIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM 11 MAY 2016, AMIHAN CONFERENCE ROOM-PAGASA

INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS SUMMARY

CPC/ International Research Institute (IRI) As of : 9 May 2016

• A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year.

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)-Australia As of : 10 May 2016

• El Niño drawing closer to an end.

• All international models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with seven of eight models exceeding La Niña thresholds by September 2016. However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -Japan As of : 11 April 2016

• It is likely that El Niño event will end before early summer. • Thereafter, it is more likely that La Niña conditions will develop in the

Northern Hemisphere summer than that ENSO neutral conditions will continue.

APEC Climate Center, Busan, S. Korea As of : 25 April 2016

• For May-Oct 2016, further decaying of El Niño with transition to the La-Nina-type conditions in the second half of forecast period.

• The forecasts for MJJ 2016 shows positive temperature anomalies to prevail over the globe, with highly probable above normal rainfalls in the central equatorial Pacific and below normal precipitation in Indochina and the Philippines. The forecasts for ASO 2016 suggest further enhancement of equatorial Pacific cooling and associated negative precipitation anomalies.

ADVISORIES GLOBAL

El Niño in decaying stage. ENSO-neutral conditions likely during May-June-July season.

What the different international climate centers say:

• All 4 international prediction centers

[International Research Institute (IRI), Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Tokyo Climate Center (JMA Japan) and APEC Climate Center]

indicate that:

the El Nino is now in its decaying stage;

ENSO-neutral conditions likely during May-June-

July season; and

increasing chance of La Nina in the second half

of the year

CLIMATE OUTLOOK (MAY – OCTOBER 2016)

Updated: MAY 10, 2016

WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD

(MAY – OCTOBER 2016)

MAY – JULY 2016

• Transition towards Southwest (SW)

monsoon (MAY)

• Local thunderstorms

• Easterly wave

• Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

• Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)

• Ridge of High Pressure Area

• Tropical Cyclones

AUG – OCT 2016

• SW monsoon

• Local thunderstorms

• ITCZ

• Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)

• Ridge of High Pressure Area

• Tropical Cyclones

• Transition towards Northeast (NE)

monsoon (OCTOBER)

Forecast Updates (Rainfall, Temperature, dry days, TC)

About PAGASA’s rainfall maps…

For: RAINFALL OUTLOOK

June 2016

Forecast (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

July 2016


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


August 2016


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


September 2016


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


October 2016


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


RAINFALL FORECAST PER PROVINCE IN % OF NORMAL (MAY – OCTOBER 2016)

FORECAST RAINFALL per Region in (mm) and (%N)

FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N)

way below

normal below normal

near normal

above normal

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS

in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)

way below

normal below normal

near normal

above normal

MAY - JULY 2016

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS

in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)

way below

normal below normal

near normal

above normal

AUGUST – OCTOBER 2016

WET DAY FORECAST

WET DAY – a day

with > 1 mm of

rainfall

REGION MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER

CAR 6-20 6-20 11-25 6-20 11-25 16-25

NCR 6-10 11-20 15-20 6-15 11-20 11-20

Region 1 6-20 6-20 11-25 6-15 11-25 16-31

Region 2 6-15 6-20 11-25 6-25 11-25 16-25

Region 3 6-15 11-20 11-25 6-20 11-20 11-25

Region 4-A 6-15 11-20 6-25 6-20 11-20 6-25

Region 4-B 6-10 11-20 11-20 6-20 11-25 11-25

Region 5 1-15 11-20 11-20 16-25 11-20 11-20

Region 6 6-15 11-20 11-20 16-20 11-20 11-20

Region 7 1-10 6-15 11-20 16-25 11-25 16-20

Region 8 1-15 6-15 11-20 16-25 11-25 11-20

Region 9 6-15 11-20 11-15 16-20 16-25 11-20

Region 10 1-15 11-20 16-25 11-20 11-20 11-20

Region 11 6-15 6-20 11-20 11-25 11-25 11-31

Region 12 6-15 11-20 11-20 11-25 11-25 11-20

CARAGA 1-15 11-20 16-25 11-20 11-20 11-20

NIR 1-15 11-20 16-25 16-25 11-20 11-20

ARMM 1-15 6-20 6-20 11-25 15-30 11-25

Number of Wet Days per Region

PAGASA

The Weather and Climate Authority

Payong

PAGASA

DRY CONDITION/DRY SPELL/ DROUGHT OUTLOOK

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF JUNE 2016

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION (5)

LUZON (5) CAVITE, RIZAL, QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL (12)

LUZON (9) AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (2) NORTHERN SAMAR, SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (1) DAVAO ORIENTAL

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT (28)

LUZON (8) BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, PALAWAN, MASBATE

VISAYAS (12) AKLAN, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)

MINDANAO (8) CAMIGUIN, DAVAO DEL SUR, SOUTH COTABATO, NORTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, SULU, TAWI-TAWI

35% of the country will likely

experience Drought (28

provinces)

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF JULY 2016


LUZON NONE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE


LUZON(3) CAVITE, METRO MANILA, RIZAL

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE


LUZON (7) BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, BATANGAS, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, PALAWAN

VISAYAS (1) SIQUIJOR

MINDANAO (6) DAVAO DEL SUR, SOUTH COTABATO, NORTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULU, TAWI-TAWI


experience Drought (14 provinces)

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF AUGUST 2016


LUZON (1) CAGAYAN

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE


LUZON (1) CAVITE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE


LUZON (2) BATANGAS, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO


MINDANAO (3) NORTH COTABATO, SULU, TAWI-TAWI


experience Drought (6 provinces)

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF SEPTEMBER 2016


LUZON NONE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO(1) MAGUINDANAO


LUZON NONE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE


LUZON NONE


MINDANAO (1) NORTH COTABATO

2% of the country will likely experience Drought (2 provinces)

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF OCTOBER 2016


LUZON NONE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE


LUZON NONE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE


LUZON NONE

VISAYAS NONE

MINDANAO NONE

Tropical Cyclone Forecast

MONTH Number of TC MAY 2016 0 or 1

JUN 2016 0 or 1

JULY 2016 1 to 3

AUGUST 2016 2 to 4

SEPTEMBER 2016 2 to 4

OCTOBER 2016 2 to 4

Monthly frequency of TCs entering PAR and TCs

making landfall (1951-2013) Month No of landfalling

TCs No of non-landfalling TCs

Average

January 12 14 0.4

February 7 13 0.3

March 10 9 0.3

April 18 11 0.45

May 31 34 1.0

June 50 50 1.5

July 80 126 3.27

August 65 138 3.22

September 78 111 3.0

October 71 88 2.5

Tropical cyclones in the PAR: trends

• average of 19.4 enter the PAR and 9 cross the country every year;

• no significant trends in the annual no of TCs in PAR, but a slightly decreasing trend in the no of landfalling TCs in the country (last 2 decades);

• fewer typhoons (>118kph), but more extreme TCs (>150kph) have affected the country; and

• A recent analysis indicate the impact of TCs

shows a consistently increasing trend in economic losses and damages (Cinco et al, 2016)

Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)

MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST

FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)

Northern Luzon 31.5 42.3 30.7 39.9 32.0 39.4 31.5 37.5 30.8 40.4 29.6 36.2

Lowlands Luzon 30.7 40.8 29.7 124.4 29.4 42.6 28.5 36.9 29.0 39.9 29.2 37.7

Mountainous Luzon 26.7 30.0 24.7 29.7 25.4 28.0 25.4 27.7 24.6 28.0 25.1 27.0

Metro Manila 36.0 38.5 33.4 37.6 34.8 36.4 32.4 35.1 32.0 36.2 32.7 38.1

Lowlands Visayas 32.9 39.7 32.3 40.0 32.7 36.7 32.6 37.1 31.5 38.4 31.8 39.6

Lowlands Mindanao 33.2 39.7 32.8 38.5 32.9 36.4 32.8 35.9 31.6 38.5 32.0 36.1

Mountainous Mindanao 33.5 36.8 32.4 34.7 31.9 33.2 31.5 33.2 32.0 34.5 32.0 33.7

Oct-16

Tmax-RangeTMAX Summary

May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16

Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range

Northern Luzon 20.2 26.8 19.4 24.3 18.0 26.6 18.4 25.7 20.0 24.5 16.4 25.7

Lowlands Luzon 18.2 27.5 10.8 27.0 15.4 25.9 17.8 25.4 16.9 25.0 18.5 25.4

Mountainous Luzon 15.0 15.7 14.9 15.8 14.7 15.4 14.8 15.6 13.0 16.2 14.0 15.6

Metro Manila 22.9 25.1 22.5 25.2 18.2 25.8 21.3 24.4 22.2 25.2 21.7 25.0

Lowlands Visayas 20.0 25.8 20.2 25.6 20.0 25.7 20.1 25.6 20.1 25.3 20.0 26.3

Lowlands Mindanao 19.1 25.0 19.6 24.7 -20.3 24.7 17.4 24.5 18.9 25.0 17.6 24.5

Mountainous Mindanao 16.1 18.7 17.0 18.5 16.0 18.2 15.1 18.0 14.9 18.0 17.5 19.4

Oct-16

Tmin-RangeTMIN Summary

May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16

Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range

Key points

The current El Niño event is in its decaying stage, returning to ENSO-neutral condition by mid-2016;

The possibility of a developing La Niña is favored towards the end of the year;

Warmer than average temperatures are expected during the next 6 month-period; and

Seven to twelve tropical cyclones may develop/enter the PAR from May– October 2016.

E-mail address: [email protected]

Documents

Philippine Climate Outlook¹climate.gov.ph/images/core-cdo/Day-1_Dr.-Lourdes-Tibig-Climate... · Philippine Climate Outlook¹ by ... OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES ... Lowlands Luzon 18.2