Petroleum Potential of the Arctic Offshore of Alaska€¦ · quat. (argillite) endicott gp shublik fm sag river fm pebble sh. nanushuk gp colville gp sagavanirktok fm. gubik fm (south)

Petroleum Potential of the Arctic Offshore of AlaskaGeophysical

Society of AlaskaAnchorage, AK

Kirk SherwoodGeologist, MMS

April 6, 2006

Colleagues Sharing BlameBeaufort Sea Assessment: Peter Johnson &

Jim ScherrEconomic Assessment: Jim Craig, Larry

Cooke, & Cameron ReitmeierHQ Computer Model Guys: Barry Dickerson &

John Buffington

Outline

• Petroleum-rich Arctic Alaska offshore province

• MMS Assessment method• Economic assessment results

for Arctic offshore

Norton

Aleut Bsn St. GeorgeShumagin

Exploration/COST WellGas Discovery Image from July 1998

Prudhoe Bay

TAPS

Arctic Offshore = Chukchi & Beaufort Sea Planning Areas

Arctic AK Petroleum Province = North Slope & Offshore Shelves

2006 Undiscovered Oil and GasRisked, Technically Recoverable

Commodity >95 % chance

MEAN > 5 % chance

Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)

11.0 104.4 281.7

Oil (billion barrels)

2.7 23.6 63.3

Beaufort & Chukchi Seas

Yr 2000: 92.2 Tcfg + 22.4 Bbo

• 79% of Alaska Offshore Gas & 89% of Alaska Offshore Oil (2006-Undiscovered)

• Offshore has 39% of Total Arctic AK Endowment (117 Bboe)*

*Northern Alaska “Endowment”, 46.6 Bbo + 139 Tcfg**= 71.3 BboeArctic Offshore “Endowment”, 24.7 Bbo + 118 Tcfg = 45.7 Bboe

** Undiscovered + Discovered EUR, D.W. Houseknecht, 2006, pers. comm., State AK DOG, 2004

The Arctic Offshore Accounts For:

Why is Arctic Offshore So Rich?

Reason #1: Geological continuity with highly successful northern Alaska petroleum province

AGE MYBP

MAJORSEQUENCE

MAJOR ARCTICPETROLEUM DISCOVERIES

CEN

OZO

ICM

ESO

ZOIC

PALE

OZO

IC

MISS.

PENN.

PERM.

TRIA

SSIC

JUR

ASSIC

CR

ETA

CEO

US

TER

TIARY

QUAT.

(ARGILLITE)

ENDICOTT GP

SHUBLIK FM

SAG RIVER FM

PEBBLE SH.

NANUSHUK GP

COLVILLE GP

SAGAVANIRKTOK FM.

GUBIK FM(NORTH)(SOUTH)

CHUKCHI SEA, BEAUFORT SEA, ARCTIC ALASKASTRATIGRAPHIC COLUMN

STRATIGRAPHY LITH.S N

TOROK FM

DEVO

NIA

N

LCU

TAB

KIN

GA

K F

M

ETIV

LUK

GP.

KAY

AK

/K

AN

AYU

T/H

UN

T FO

RK

KU

NA

FM.

OTU

K F

M.

SIK

SIK

. FM

.

UPP

ER

KUPARUK SS

KAVIK SHALE

SAD

LERO

CH

ITG

P

LISBURNE GP

?

LOW

ER

IVISHAK FM

ECHOOKA FM

WACHSMUTH FM.

KAYAK/KEKIKTUK FMS.

ALAPAH FM.

WAHOO FM.

BU

BROOKIAN

ELLESMERIAN

ACOUSTICBASEMENT

100

2

200

300

SEQUENCE

SEQUENCE

FRANKLINIANSEQUENCE

BEAUFORTIANSEQUENCE

PU

LOWER

UPPERELLESMERIANSEQUENCE

JURASSIC SS*

BARROW SSSIMPSON SS

PT. THOMSON SS

JU

NOT PRESENT INMOST OF NPR-A

(Maximum Thickness = 160m)

PLAYSEQUENCE

BROOK. TOPSET

IN NPR-A

EXTREMELY THIN

PLAYS 13, 14, 20

BROOK.TURBIDITESPLAYS 11,12,19,22

BEAUFORTIAN

SADLEROCHIT GP

PLAYS 3,6,7,15,16

PLAYS 8,9,10,17,18, 22

LISBURNE GPPLAYS 3,4,5,21

ENDICOTT GPPLAYS 1,2,3,21

BROOK. TOPSETPLAYS 13, 14, 20

BROOK.TURBIDITESPLAYS 11,12,19,23

FORTRESS MTN. FM.

OKPIK. FM.

?

??

CANADIAN BEAUFORT: 17 GAS, 22 OIL & OIL AND GAS FIELDS; REC. RESERVES = 1.1 BBOR AND 12.7 TCFGR

SCHRADER BLUFF (400 MMBOR)WEST SAK (300-500 MMBOR)

UMIAT (70 MMBOR, 0.05 TCFGR)

PT THOMSON (300 MMBOR, 5 TCFGR)KUPARUK (2.6 BBOR, 1.1 TCFGR)MILNE PT (404 MMBOR); PALM (35 MMBOR)

PRUDHOE BAY(13.7 BBOR, 26 TCFGR)

LISBURNE POOL-PRUDHOEBAY (164 MMBOR, 276 BCFGR)

ENDICOTT (582 MMBOR, 0.9 TCFGR)

BADAMI (11 MMBOR), FLAXMAN ISLAND (RU)

WALAKPA (32 BCFG)

S.BARROW + E.BARROW (39 BCFGR)SIKULIK (12 BCFGR)PRUDHOE BAY (4 BBOIP)

SAND PIPER (RU)

LIBERTY-TERN (138 MMBOR)

PT MCINTYRE (549 MMBOR)

HAMMERHEAD (RU)

NIAKUK (65 MMBOR, 0.03 TCFGR)

NORTHSTAR (176 MMBOR)

KUVLUM (325 MMBOR)

GUBIK AND E. UMIAT (350-900 BCFGR)

GWYDYR BAY (30-60 MMBOR)N. PRUDHOE (4 MMBOR)

ALPINE (500 MMBOR)

IVISHAK (ENDICOTT) (6+MMBOR)

FISH CREEK (RU)SIMPSON (12 MMBOR)

{

TARN (50 MMBOR); MELTWATER (52 MMBOR); NANUQ (40 MMBOR); SOURDOUGH (100 MMBOR)

{

BrookianSequence

Beaufortian = RiftSequence

EllesmerianSequence

FranklinianSequence

Stratigraphic Continuity Across Arctic Alaska & OCS

OIL

PIP

ELIN

E

NPR-A

ANWR

ALASKA (U.S. )C

ANADA

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

PRUDHOEKUPARUK

LIBERTYNORTHSTAR

WALAKPABARROW

FISH CREEK

WOLFCREEK

UMIAT

EASTUMIAT

GUBIK

SIMPSON

MEADE

SQUARE LAKEKEMIK KAVIK

PT. THOMSONSOURDOUGH

BADAMIOUMALIK

ALPINE

KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD

SANDPIPER

STINSON

CABOTFIREWEED

GALAHADMARS

ANTARES ORION

MUKLUK

KLONDIKE

BURGER

DIAMOND

POPCORNCRACKERJACK

CORONAWW

BELCHER

AURORA

K.I.C. #1

Nuiqsut

Pt. Barrow

Wainwright

PointLay

PointHope

Kaktovik

ELLESMERIAN ROCKS IN SUBSURFACE STABLE SHELF SETTINGS

ELLESMERIAN ROCKS IN SUBSURFACE RIFT BASINS

ELLESMERIAN-EQUIVALENT ROCKS AT SURFACE

EXPLORATORYWELL, P&A

OILFIELD

GASFIELD

0 150

50 0 150MILES

KILOMETERS

50SEISMIC PROFILE

174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°

72°

70°

68°

150°160°

170°

140°

68°

70°

72°

146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°

73°

ELLESMERIAN SEQUENCE BASINS

Sherwood\....\Figure Chuk-06-Map-Ellesmerian Basins.cdr

Chu

kchi

Sea

-Rus

sian

Wat

ers

?

ARCTICPLATFORM

"BARROVIA" - ELLESMERIAN SEDIMENT SOURCE TERRANE

(Now Rifted Away)

CHUK

CHI

PLA

TFO

RM

SED

. SO

URC

E

HA

NN

A TROUGH

A

B

A

C A IRCT L

AA

SKSIN

BO

R

S

O

K RANG RE F ONT

BROOKS RANGE FRTON

HERALD THRU

ST

ANWR

OIL

PIP

ELIN

E

NPR-A ALASKA (U.S. )C

ANADA

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

K.I.C. Lands

1002 AREA

PRUDHOEKUPARUK

LIBERTYNORTHSTAR

WALAKPA

BARROW

FISH CREEK

WOLFCREEK UMIAT

EASTUMIAT

GUBIK

SIMPSON

MEADE

SQUARE LAKE

KEMIKKAVIK


BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE

KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD

SANDPIPER

STINSON

CABOTFIREWEED

GALAHADMARS

ANTARESORION

MUKLUK

KLONDIKE BURGER

DIAMOND

POPCORN

CRACKERJACK

CORONAWW

BELCHER

AURORA

K.I.C. #1

Nuiqsut

Barrow

Wainwright

PointLay

PointHope

Kaktovik

H

INGE

LINE

HINGE LINE

HINGE LINE

Arctic Ocean

Chukchi Sea

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

RIFT SEQUENCE TECTONIC FEATURES

Shelf edge onshore from Bird (1988, fig. 16.15) and Moore et al. (1994, fig. 13)

DINKUM GRABEN

174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°

72°

70°

68°

150°160°

170°

140°

68°

70°

72°

146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°

73°

Chu

kchi

Sea

-Rus

sian

Wat

ers

BO

R

S

O

K RANG RE F ONT

BROOKS RANGE FRTON

HERALD THRU

ST


OILFIELD

GASFIELD

0 150

50 0 150MILES

KILOMETERS

50SEISMIC PROFILE

Rift Grabens

Active Rift Zone

Area Underlain by Stable Shelf and Basin Sequences Equivalent to Rift Sequence

Barrow Arch

Hypothetical Rift System

DEEP BASIN

SHELF EDGE

??

B

FEAU

R

ORT IFT SYSTEM

CHUKCHIRIFT

TRANSFO

RM FT ?

Sherwood\...\Figure Chuk-07-Rift Basins.cdr

OIL

PIP

ELIN

E

KUVLUM

CORONA

NPR-AANWR

ALASKA (U.S. )C

ANADA

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

PRUDHOEKUPARUK

LIBERTY

WALAKPABARROW

FISH CREEK

WOLFCREEK

UMIAT

EASTUMIAT

GUBIK

SIMPSON

MEADE

SQUARE LAKE

KEMIK

BADAMIOUMALIK

ALPINE

HAMMERHEAD

CABOT

GALAHADMARS

MUKLUK

KLONDIKE BURGER

DIAMOND

POPCORN

CRACKER-JACK

BELCHER

AUR-ORA

K.I.C. #1

Nuiqsut

Barrow

Wainwright

PointLay

PointHope


OILFIELD

GASFIELD

0 150

50 0 150MILES

KILOMETERS

50SEISMIC PROFILE

174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°

72°

70°

68°

150°160°

170°

140°

68°

70°

72°

146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°

73°

BROOKIAN SEQUENCE BASINS AND PLATFORMS

Sherwood\...\Figure Chuk-08-Brookian Basins.cdr

Chu

kchi

Sea

-Rus

sian

Wat

ers

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

NUWUK BASIN

ARCTIC PLATFORM

CHUK

CHI

PLAT

FORM

NORTHCHUKCHI

HIGH

COLVILLE BASIN

HOPEBASIN

COLVILLE BASIN

KAKTOVIK BASIN500 mHinge Line

N Edge Foldbelt

N EdgeFoldbelt

N EdgeFoldbelt

100 m

TERTIARY

CRETACEOUS

NORTH CHUKCHI BASIN

BO

R

S

O

K RANG RE F ONT

BROOKS RANGE FRTON

HERALD THRU

ST

Why So Rich?

Reason #2: Presence of many complex structures which created numerous potential traps

APP

RO

XIM

ATE

DEP

THS

(FEE

T, M

ETER

S)

2,000 (610 m)

0

4,000 (1,220 m)

6,000 (1,830 m)

8,000 (2,440 m)

10,000 (3,050 m)

12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)16,000 (4,880 m)18,000 (5,490 m)

20,000 (6,100 m)

25,000 (7,625 m)

30,000 (9,150 m)

35,000 (10,675 m)

40,000 (12,200 m)

APP

RO

XIM

ATE

DEP

THS

(FEE

T, M

ETER

S)

2,000 (610 m)

0

4,000 (1,220 m)

6,000 (1,830 m)

8,000 (2,440 m)

10,000 (3,050 m)

12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)16,000 (4,880 m)18,000 (5,490 m)20,000 (6,100 m)

25,000 (7,625 m)

30,000 (9,150 m)

35,000 (10,675 m)

40,000 (12,200 m)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

TIM

E (S

EC)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

TIM

E (S

EC)

10 MILES

10 KILOMETERS

? ? ?

PEARD S. BARROW 1TUNALIKAKULIKTUNGAKCREEK

Albian

Albian

Pl

Pl: Pennsylvanian Lisburne Gp. carbonates

Pe(e)

Pe(e): Permian Echooka Formation

K(psh)

K(psh): Cretaceous (Haut.-Barrem.) Pebble Shale

Gap = 44 km

Interpretation of unmigrated line published by Thurston and Theiss (MMS 87-0046, 1987, pl. 8)

Interpretation of unmigrated line published by Thurston and Theiss (MMS 87-0046, 1987, pl. 2)

HOPE BASIN(Paleocene and Younger)

HERALD ARCH FOLD AND THRUST BELTHANNA TROUGH - ARCTIC ALASKA BASIN

(ELLESMERIAN)

COLVILLE FOREDEEP BASIN(BROOKIAN)

ARCTIC PLATFORMBARROW

ARCH

BROOKIAN SEQUENCE

“RIFT” SEQUENCE

ELLESMERIAN

SEQUENCE

BASEMENT?

EXOTIC TERRANE OF MODESTLY DEFORMED PRE-MISSISSIPPIAN

ROCKS

ZEROELLESMERIAN

Oligocene-HolocenePlay Sequence

Oligocene-HolocenePlay Sequence

“Eocene” PlaySequence

BASEMENT

BROOKIANSEQUENCE

BASEMENT

ELLESMERIAN SEQ.

“RIFT”SEQUENCE

HERALD TH

RUST

NORTHEASTSOUTHWEST

LINE 5

ANWR


OILFIELD

GASFIELD

0 150

50 0 150MILES

KILOMETERS

50SEISMIC PROFILE

OIL

PIP

ELIN

E


ANA DA

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

6

43

5

7

8

9

2

1

PRUDHOEKUPARUK

LIBERTYNORTHSTAR

WALAKPA

BARROW

FISH CREEK

WOLFCREEK UMIAT

EASTUMIAT

GUBIK

SIMPSON

MEADE

SQUARE LAKE

KEMIKKAVIK


BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE

KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD

SANDPIPER

STINSON

CABOT

FIREWEED

GALAHADMARS

ANTARESORION

MUKLUK

KLONDIKE BURGER

DIAMOND

POPCORN

CRACKERJACK

CORONAWW

BELCHER

AURORAK.I.C. #1

Nuiqsut

Barrow

Wainwright

PointLay

PointHope

Kaktovik

Arctic Ocean

Chukchi Sea

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s


INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°

72°

70°

68°

150°160°

170°

140°

68°

70°

72°

146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°

73°

Chu

kchi

Sea

-Rus

sian

Wat

ers

BO

R

S

O

K RANG RE F ONT

BROOKS RANGE FRTON

HERALD THRU

ST

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

TIM

E (S

EC)

10 MILES

10 KILOMETERS

KLONDIKE

Pe(k?)

Pe(k?): Permian, shales equivalent to Kavik Formation (Sadlerochit Gp.)

APP

RO

XIM

ATE

DEP

THS

(FEE

T, M

ETER

S)

2,000 (610 m)

0

4,000 (1,220 m)

6,000 (1,830 m)

8,000 (2,440 m)

10,000 (3,050 m)

12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)16,000 (4,880 m)18,000 (5,490 m)

20,000 (6,100 m)

25,000 (7,625 m)

30,000 (9,150 m)

35,000 (10,675 m)

40,000 (12,200 m)

CHUKCHIPLATFORM

ELLESMERIANRIFT BASIN

(Hanna Trough)EASTWEST

BROOKIANSEQUENCE

RIFT SEQUENCE

ELLESMERIANSEQUENCE

ELLESMERIANSEQUENCE

BASEMENT

Migrated line. Sherwood et al. (GSA Spec. Paper on Bering Sea-Chukchi (in press) 2001, pl. 2, line 1)

LINE 3

ANWR


OILFIELD

GASFIELD

0 150

50 0 150MILES

KILOMETERS

50SEISMIC PROFILE

OIL

PIP

ELIN

E


ANA DA

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

6

43

5

7

8

9

2

1

PRUDHOEKUPARUK

LIBERTYNORTHSTAR

WALAKPA

BARROW

FISH CREEK

WOLFCREEK UMIAT

EASTUMIAT

GUBIK

SIMPSON

MEADE

SQUARE LAKE

KEMIKKAVIK


BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE

KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD

SANDPIPER

STINSON

CABOT

FIREWEED

GALAHADMARS

ANTARESORION

MUKLUK

KLONDIKE BURGER

DIAMOND

POPCORN

CRACKERJACK

CORONAWW

BELCHER

AURORAK.I.C. #1

Nuiqsut

Barrow

Wainwright

PointLay

PointHope

Kaktovik

Arctic Ocean

Chukchi Sea

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s


INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°

72°

70°

68°

150°160°

170°

140°

68°

70°

72°

146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°

73°

Chu

kchi

Sea

-Rus

sian

Wat

ers

BO

R

S

O

K RANG RE F ONT

BROOKS RANGE FRTON

HERALD THRU

ST

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

TIM

E (S

EC)

APP

RO

XIM

ATE

DEP

THS

(FEE

T, M

ETER

S)

2,000 (610 m)

0

4,000 (1,220 m)

6,000 (1,830 m)

8,000 (2,440 m)

10,000 (3,050 m)

12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)16,000 (4,880 m)18,000 (5,490 m)20,000 (6,100 m)

25,000 (7,625 m)

30,000 (9,150 m)

35,000 (10,675 m)

40,000 (12,200 m)

10 MILES

10 KILOMETERS

DIAMONDBURGER

Pel

Pel: Permian Lisburne Gp. carbonates

Jk(e-m)

Jk(e-m): Jurassic (E.-M.) Kingak Shale

WEST EAST

ELLESMERIAN RIFT BASIN(Hanna Trough)

ARCTICPLATFORM

Migrated line. Sherwood et al. (GSA Spec. Paper on Bering Sea-Chukchi (in press) 2001, pl. 2, line 2)

BROOKIANSEQUENCE

RIFTSEQUENCE

ELLESMERIANSEQUENCE

BASEMENT

LINE 4

ANWR


OILFIELD

GASFIELD

0 150

50 0 150MILES

KILOMETERS

50SEISMIC PROFILE

OIL

PIP

ELIN

E


ANADA

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

6

43

5

7

8

9

2

1

PRUDHOEKUPARUK

LIBERTYNORTHSTAR

WALAKPA

BARROW

FISH CREEK

WOLFCREEK UMIAT

EASTUMIAT

GUBIK

SIMPSON

MEADE

SQUARE LAKE

KEMIKKAVIK


BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE

KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD

SANDPIPER

STINSON

CABOT

FIREWEED

GALAHADMARS

ANTARESORION

MUKLUK

KLONDIKE BURGER

DIAMOND

POPCORN

CRACKERJACK

CORONAWW

BELCHER

AURORAK.I.C. #1

Nuiqsut

Barrow

Wainwright

PointLay

PointHope

Kaktovik

Arctic Ocean

Chukchi Sea

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s


INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°

72°

70°

68°

150°160°

170°

140°

68°

70°

72°

146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°

73°

Chu

kchi

Sea

-Rus

sian

Wat

ers

BO

R

S

O

K RANG RE F ONT

BROOKS RANGE FRTON

HERALD THRU

ST

ANWR


OILFIELD

GASFIELD

0 150

50 0 150MILES

KILOMETERS

50SEISMIC PROFILE

OIL

PIP

ELIN

E


ANADA

Beau

fort

S ea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

6

43

5

7

8

9

2

1

PRUDHOEKUPARUK

LIBERTYNORTHSTAR

WALAKPA

BARROW

FISH CREEK

WOLFCREEK UMIAT

EASTUMIAT

GUBIK

SIMPSON

MEADE

SQUARE LAKE

KEMIKKAVIK


BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE

KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD

SANDPIPER

STINSON

CABOT

FIREWEED

GALAHADMARS

ANTARESORION

MUKLUK

KLONDIKE BURGER

DIAMOND

POPCORN

CRACKERJACK

CORONAWW

BELCHER

AURORAK.I.C. #1

Nuiqsut

Barrow

Wainwright

PointLay

PointHope

Kaktovik

Arctic Ocean

Chukchi Sea

Beau

fort

S ea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s


INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°

72°

70°

68°

150°160°

170°

140°

68°

70°

72°

146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°

73°

Chu

kchi

Sea

-Rus

sian

Wat

ers

BO

R

S

O

K RANG RE F ONT

BROOKS RANGE FRTON

HERALD THRU

ST

0

1

2

3

TIM

E (S

EC)

4

5

6

7

8

APP

RO

XIM

ATE

DEP

THS

(FEE

T, M

ETER

S)

2,000 (610 m)

4,000 (1,220 m)

6,000 (1,830 m)

8,000 (2,440 m)

10,000 (3,050 m)

12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)

16,000 (4,880 m)

18,000 (5,490 m)

20,000 (6,100 m)

25,000 (7,625 m)

30,000 (9,150 m)

40,000 (12,200 m)

45,000 (13,720 m)

35,000 (10,670 m)

0

10 MILES

10 KILOMETERS

BELCHER (U.S.)NATSEK E-56 (CANADA)1EDLOCK N-56 (CANADA)1

Miocene

Eocene

Eocene

Paleocene(Both Wells)

Eo

Pal

Eocene(Taglu Sequence)

Eocene

Interpretation of unmigrated line published by Craig et al. (MMS 85-0111, 1985, pl. 7)

SOUTH NORTHWEST

ANTIFORMALDUPLEX STACK?

BROOKIAN SEQUENCE

BASEMENT

BROOKIAN SEQUENCE?

EN ECHELONFOLDS

ARCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE (ANWR) “KAKTOVIK BASIN”

DEMARCATION SUBBASIN NIGUANAK HIGH HERSCHEL ARCH

5 km

LINE 9

1 Well locations projected to similar structural positions relative to Demarcation subbasin and Herschel Arch. Ages of rocks at total depth in Edlock and Natsek wells from Dietrich and others, 1989, Geol. Surv. Canada Paper 89-1G

ANWR


OILFIELD

GASFIELD

0 150

50 0 150MILES

KILOMETERS

50SEISMIC PROFILE

OIL

PIP

ELIN

E


ANADA

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

6

43

5

7

8

9

2

1

PRUDHOEKUPARUK

LIBERTYNORTHSTAR

WALAKPA

BARROW

FISH CREEK

WOLFCREEK UMIAT

EASTUMIAT

GUBIK

SIMPSON

MEADE

SQUARE LAKE

KEMIKKAVIK


BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE

KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD

SANDPIPER

STINSON

CABOT

FIREWEED

GALAHADMARS

ANTARESORION

MUKLUK

KLONDIKE BURGER

DIAMOND

POPCORN

CRACKERJACK

CORONAWW

BELCHER

AURORAK.I.C. #1

Nuiqsut

Barrow

Wainwright

PointLay

PointHope

Kaktovik

Arctic Ocean

Chukchi Sea

Beau

fort

Sea-

Can

adia

n W

ater

s


INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°

72°

70°

68°

150°160°

170°

140°

68°

70°

72°

146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°

73°

Chu

kchi

Sea

-Rus

sian

Wat

ers

BO

R

S

O

K RANG RE F ONT

BROOKS RANGE FRTON

HERALD THRU

ST

Why so Rich?

Reason #3: Numerous large prospects

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Prudhoe Bay-13,700 MmboKuparuk-2,900 Mmbo

Alpine-536 Mmbo

Lisburne-192 Mmbo

Tarn-126 MmboEndicott-571 Mmbo Northstar-196 Mmbo

FIELD ACRES RESERVES (Mmbo) Kuparuk 170,000 2,900Prudhoe Bay 150,000 13,700Alpine 40,000 536Lisburne 30,000 192Tarn 11,800 126Endicott 8,800 571Northstar 7,500 196

Statistics for Untested Prospects:12 Prospects > 150,000 Acres24 Prospects > 100,000 Acres 95 Prospects > 40,000 Acres

ARCTIC OFFSHORE PROSPECTSProspect Areas Compared to Pool Areas for Selected North Slope Fields

Sherwood\...\Beaufort & Chukchi-Ranked Prospect Areas.cdr

Rank by Prospect Areas (n=1,129 [Chukchi, 856; Beaufort, 273])

Pros

pect

Are

as (A

cres

)

The MMS AssessmentMethod

Play Identification(“Play” = genetically-related group of pools, sharing hydrocarbon charge,

reservoir, and trap styles)

MMS Arctic Plays1. Grouped by Stratigraphic Sequence2. Structural Setting3. Reservoir Thermal Maturity (All Gas?)

EJU

AGE MYBP

PLAYSEQUENCE

MAJOR ARCTICPETROLEUM DISCOVERIES

CEN

OZO

ICM

ESO

ZOIC

PALE

OZO

IC

MISS.

PENN.

PERM.

TRIA

SSIC

JUR

ASS

ICC

RET

AC

EOU

STE

RTI

ARY

QUAT.

(ARGILLITE)

ENDICOTT GP

SHUBLIK FM

SAG RIVER FM

PEBBLE SH.

NANUSHUK GP

COLVILLE GP

SAGAVANIRKTOK FM.

GUBIK FM(NORTH)(SOUTH)

SANDSTONE

CONGLOMERATE

METAMORPHIC

SHALE

LIMESTONE

DOLOMITE

Chukchi Shelf, Beaufort Shelf, and Arctic AlaskaStratigraphic Column

STRATIGRAPHY LITH.S N

TOROK FM

DEV

ON

IAN

LCU

TAB

KIN

GA

K F

M

ETIV

LUK

GP.

KAY

AK

/K

AN

AYU

T/H

UN

T FO

RK

KU

NA

FM

.

OTU

K F

M.

SIK

SIK

. FM

.

UPP

ER

KUPARUK SS

KAVIK SHALE

SAD

LER

OC

HIT

GP

LISBURNE GP

SILTSTONE

OIL FIELD (RESERVE)

GAS FIELD (RESERVE)

OIL AND GAS FIELD (RESERVE)

RECOVERABLE

IN PLACE

CANADIAN BEAUFORT(17 GAS, 22 OIL, OIL ANDGAS FIELDS REC. RES. =

SCHRADER BLUFF (400 MMBOR)WEST SAK (300-500 MMBOR)

UMIAT (70 MMBOR, 0.05 TCFGR)

PT THOMSON (300 MMBOR, 5 TCFGR)KUPARUK (2.8 BBOR, 1.0 TCFGR)MILNE PT (220 MMBOR, 34 BCFGR)

PRUDHOE BAY(13 BBOR, 26 TCFGR)

LISBURNE POOL-PRUDHOEBAY (206 MMBOR, 1 TCFGR)

ENDICOTT (600 MMBOR, 0.9 TCFGR){?

EXPLANATION

LOW

ER

IVISHAK FM

ECHOOKA FM

WACHSMUTH FM.

KAYAK/KEKIKTUK FMS.

ALAPAH FM.

WAHOO FM.

1.1 BBOR AND 12.7 TCFGR)

BADAMI (120 MMBOR), FLAXMAN ISLAND (RU)

WALAKPA (32 BCFGR)

S.BARROW + E.BARROW (39 BCFGR)

PRUDHOE BAY-SAG RIVER (4 BBOIP)PRUDHOE BAY-SHUBLIK (250-500 MMBOIP)

SAND PIPER (RU)

LIBERTY (138 MMBOR)

MMBOR: MILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL,

MMBOIP: MILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL,

BBOR: BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL, RECOVERABLE

BCFGR: BILLION CUBIC FEET OF GAS, RECOVERABLE

TCFGR: TRILLION CUBIC FEET OF GAS, RECOVERABLE

RU: RESERVES UNKNOWN

PT MCINTYRE (340 MMBOR, 710 BCFGR)

HAMMERHEAD (RU)

NIAKUK (65 MMBOR, 0.07 TCFGR)

NORTHSTAR (204 MMBOR)

BU

BROOKIAN

ELLESMERIANSEQUENCE

ACOUSTICBASEMENT

BROOKIAN UNCONFORMITYLOWER CRETACEOUSUNCONFORMITY

TOP OF ACOUSTICBASEMENT

BU:LCU:

TAB:

100

2

200

300

KUVLUM (325 MMBOR)

GUBIK AND E. UMIAT (350-900 BCFGR)

GWYDYR BAY (30-60 MMBOR)N. PRUDHOE (4 MMBOR)

{

RESERVES FROM AKDO&G (2000) AND OTHER SOURCES AS OF MAY 2001

SEQUENCE

FRANKLINIANSEQUENCE

KEY OIL SOURCE ROCKS

OIL RESERVOIRSKEY COMMERCIAL

ALPINE (429 MMBOR, 60 BCFGR)

EIDER (ENDICOTT) (5 MMBOR)

BEAUFORTIANSEQUENCE

PU

PU: PERMIAN UNCONFORMITY

FISH CREEK (RU)SIMPSON (RU)

JURASSICSS*

BARROW SSSIMPSON SS

PT. THOMSON SS

JU

* INCLUDES ALPINE, NUIQSUT,AND NECHELIK SANDSTONES OF KORNBRATH AND OTHERS (1997)

RESERVOIR/SOURCE

JURASSIC UNCONFORMITYJU:

FORTRESS MTN. FM.

OKPIK. FM.

?

??

TARN (65 MMBOR), SOURDOUGH (100 MMBOR), MELTWATER (50 MMBOR), TABASCO (30 MMBOR)

Beaufortian = RiftSequence

BrookianSequence

EllesmerianSequence

FranklinianSequence

North Limit - Hope Basin Fill

Pre-Brookian Basement at Seafloor

Herald Arch -

Herald Thrust at Seafloor

Lisburne Thrust

?

??

North Limit of Detached Folds

North

LimitOf

Detached

Folds

TranstensionalFault Zone

Foldbelt

Point Lay

Kase

galu

k L

agoo

n

PointHope

Point Lay

CapeLisburne

71°

70°

69°

170°168° 165° 162°

68°68°

TUNGAK CREEK

AKULIK

EAGLE CREEK

KLONDIKE

?

?

?

ALASKA

PACIFICOCEAN

ARCTIC OCEAN

I N D E X M A P Chukchi Sea

Planning Area

StudyArea

Herald Thrust Zone

Northern FoothillsSouthern Foothills

(Molenaar, 1988)

NO DATA

NO DATA

DATA

HERALD THRUST, FOLD AND THRUST BELT,AND TRANSTENSIONAL FAULT ZONE

ARCTICPLATFORM(Unfaulted)

Sherwood\.....\Figure KWS-10-Foldbelt.cdr

5

100

0

0 10

10

20

20

20

30

30

30

40

40

40

50

505

5

STATUTE MILES

KILOMETERS

NAUTICAL MILES

RU

SSIA

U. S

. A.

N

Exploration Well, Plugged and Abandoned, With Gas Shows in Lower Brookian Rocks

Axis of Anticline, with Arrows Denoting Plunge

Thrust Fault, Teeth on Upthrown Block

Normal Fault, Hachures on Downthrown Block

Explanation

USGS-7Jurassic1.76% Ro

ARCTIC OCEAN

ALASKA

PACIFIC OCEAN

BA

O

SE

EA T

ION

ZO

-1.3

5

ERN

G

BASE OIL NER ZO - 1.35% Ro

FOR OILEXPENDEDSHUBLIK-2.0% R-FLO

VATION

SER

OIL

ATIONGE NE

PRE

??

OR

I LNE

Ro%

o

SHUBLI

KTR

UNCA

TED

AT J

U

SHUBLI

KTR

UN

AT JU

SHUBLIKTRUN

AT LCU

SHUBLIK ONLAP EDGE

TED

TEDCA USGS - ONLAP EDGE

SHUBLIK

CA

DATUM

CHANGE

CHANGE

DATUMOFFSHORE MAPPING BY MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE STAFF (S. HURLBERT, S. ZERWICK, K. SHERWOOD, J. SCHERR, J. CRAIG, P. JOHNSON, D. THURSTON), COMPILED BY SHERWOOD, 1/93.

ONSHORE MAPPING IN NPRA FROM BIRD, 1988, U.S.G.S. pp 1399, figure 16.13.

DATUM CHANGE AT SHORELINE: OFFSHORE, TOP SHUBLIK; ONSHORE, TOP SADLEROCHIT (BASE SHUBLIK).

LCU: LOWER CRETACEOUS UNCONFORMITY (BASE PEBBLE SHALE).

JU: JURASSIC UNCONFORMITY (LATE JURASSIC TO EARLY CRETACEOUS).

OIL GENERATIVE (0.6-1.35 Ro%)

ONLY GAS PRESERVED (>2.0 Ro%)

GAS GENERATIVE (1.35-2.0 Ro%)

SURPRISE CREEK-SHUBLIK (OTUK?)EXPOSED AT SURFACE 0.7%-1.4% Ro

POSTED VITRINITE REFLECTANCES ARE FOR TOP OF SHUBLIK FORMATION. ONSHORE DATA CALCULATED FROM JOHNSSON AND OTHERS (1993, AAPG, 77/11, 1874)

SURPRISE CREEK LOCALITY DATA FROM MULL (1997, AK. GEOL. SOC., APRIL NEWSLETTER AND PERS. COMM., 1998)

SURFACE THERMAL MATURITIES IN BROOKS RANGE FROM JOHNSSON AND HOWELL, 1996, USGS MI, MAP I-2142.

Sherwood\...\Figure Chuk-15-HannaTroughOilKitchen.cdr

Barrow

Point Lay

Wainwright Atqasuk

Point Hope

162°72°

70°

71°

156°

159°

69°

68°

165°168°169°

50 Statute Miles

50 Nautical Miles0

0

0 50 Kilometers

TUNGAK CREEK

EAGLE CREEK

AKULIK

SHUBLIK NOTPENETRATED

SHUBLIK NOTPENETRATED

NOT PENETRATED

TUNALIK3.00% V14400 FT/TOP SHUBLIK14715 FT/TOP SAD.

PEARD0.95% V8362 FT/TOP SHUBLIK8637 FT/TOP SAD.

KUGRUA2.01% V9565 FT/TOP SHUBLIK9925 FT/TOP SAD.

RO

RO

RO

POPCORNSHUBLIKNOT PRESENT

CRACKERJACKSHUBLIKNOT PRESENT

KLONDIKE0.66% V9359 FT

RO

BURGERNOT PENETRATEDAT TD (8160 FT)

DIAMOND0.84% V4612 FT

RO

8,000

6,000

10,000

14,000

10,000

12,00

0

12,000

11,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

20,000

26,0

00

28,000

22,000

22,000

18,000

14,000

10,000

?

?

?

?

4,000

24,000

STRUCTURE AND THERMAL MATURITY OF TRIASSIC OIL SOURCE ROCKS IN HANNA TROUGH

Estimated Potential Triassic Charge to Chukchi Shelf = 2.97 Trillion Barrels(Sherwood et al., 1998, p. 144)

HYPOTHETICAL OILMIGRATION PATHS

ARCTIC OFFSHORE PLAYS2 Franklinian Sequence Plays (1 Chukchi,

1 Beaufort)9 Ellesmerian Sequence Plays (6 Chukchi,

3 Beaufort)4 Rift/Beaufortian Sequence Plays (3

Chukchi, 1 Beaufort)24 Brookian Sequence Plays (16 Chukchi,

9 Beaufort)_________________

39 Plays Total

Basics of Assessment Method

• Determine Sizes and Numbers of Pools

• Summation of Pools• Acknowledge Uncertainty

(Reflected by Ranged Estimates or Probability Distributions)

POOL VOLUMES(Acre-Feet)

• Prospect Areas from Seismic Mapping.

• Fill Fraction Estimates (Analogs; Seal

• Pay Thickness from Regional Data

Sherwood\...\Chukchi Play 11 Prospect Areas.cdr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

120

140

160

Log-Normal Fit ( ) to Prospect Areas@RISK-Bestfit(Chukchi Shelf Play 11-Foreland Foldbelt)

Prospect Area (acres x 1,000)

%/1

0 (n

=57)

Log-NormalFit

Mean=21,925 acresMedian=13,223 acresStd. Dev.=28,998 acres

PROSPECT NUMBERS(Probability Distribution)

1. Numbers of Prospects from Seismic Mapping (“Identifieds”).

2. Numbers of Prospects Not Mapped Owing to Deficiencies in Mapping (“Unidentifieds”).

3. Create log-normal probability distribution between minimum and maximum.

CALCULATE NUMBERS OF POOLS

• Construct Risk Model for Play to Estimate Exploration Chance

• Set Exploration Chance Against Prospect Numbers to Calculate Probability Distribution for Number of Pools

DEFINITIONS1. Pool: hydrocarbons in sufficient

concentration in a pore system to flow into a conventional wellbore (may establish minimum size if feasible)

2. Successful Play: any play known or believed to contain at least one pool (play chance = 1). All others <1.0.

MORE DEFINITIONS

3. Prospect Chance: Assuming a successful play, fraction of prospectsthat contain pooled petroleum

4. Play Exploration chance: [play levelchance] X [prospect chance]

Play Risk Model

RESERVOIR YIELD1. Recoverable Stock-Tank Barrels of

Oil Per Acre-Foot.2. Recoverable Gas at STP in Millions

of Cubic Feet Per Acre-Foot.3. Use Reservoir Equations in Monte

Carlo Aggregation in @RISK

@RISK Data Model for Oil & Gas Recovery Factors

10,000 Trials Calculate Conditional Oil & Gas Resources

for 10’s-100’s of Thousands of “Simulation Pools”

Simulation Pools Are:1.Used to Construct Actual Pools

Forecast for Play2.Aggregated and Risked to Estimate

“Geologic” Endowments of Plays3.Individually Sampled and Tested for

Economic Success

>100 model parameters (engineering, costs, scheduling, and financial) are entered as ranged distributions

154°174°174°

52°

178° 178°

54°

56°

58°

170° 166° 162° 158°

60°

156° 160° 164° 168° 172° 176° 180° 176° 168° 160°

150° 146° 138°142° 134°

54°

56°

58°

60°

62°

152° 144° 136° 128° 120° 116°

64°

66°

68°

70°

72°152°148°144°

50°

48°

46°

44° 50°

52°

Cook Inlet Oil and Gas Fields

Prudhoe Bay AreaOil and Gas Fields

Sherwood\...\Alaska Gas Infrastructure-2006 Assessment.cdr

Canada

ALASKA

RussiaNPR-A

ANWR

Russian Waters

Can

adia

n W

ater

s

LNG Tanker Route

Onshore Gas Pipeline

Subsea Gas Pipeline

NOR Central Offshore Facility

Shorebase (No LNG Plant)Main Shorebase with LNG Plant

NOMEYAKUTAT

TAPS

Explanation

Trans-Alaska OilPipeline System (TAPS)

TAPS800 mi

Gas Development Infrastructure and Transportation Routes

2006 MMS Oil & Gas AssessmentAlaska OCS

KODIAK

VALDEZ

ANCHORAGE

YAKUTATLNG PLANT

DUTCHHARBOR

COLDBAY

CENTRAL OFFSHORE FACILITIESCHUK:BEAU: HB:NOR:NAV:SGB:NAS:KS:GOA: SH

Chukchi ShelfBeaufort Shelf

Hope Basin Norton Basin Navarin Basin St. George Basin North Aleutian Shelf

Kodiak Shelf Gulf of Alaska

: Shumagin Shelf

REDDOG

3,500 mi

2,600 mi

2,100 mi

LNG Tankers To U.S. West Coast

LNG Tankers ToU.S. West Coast

GAS PIPELINE TO

U.S. MIDWEST

HB

CHUK

CHUKBEAU BEAU

NAV

SGB

NASSH

NOR

KS

GOANIKISKI/

KENAI LNGPLANT

BALBOA BAYLNG PLANT

KIVALINA

NOMEST. LAWRENCE

ISLAND LNGPLANT

Nautical Miles

500

150

500

150

Miles

Kilometers500

150

Shelf Edge

Development & Economic Models

Hypothetical GasDevelopmentInfrastructureModel

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

• Hypothetical “simulation pools” as modeled by geological model

• Engineering simulation based on sizes and locations of hypothetical “simulation pools”

• Cost schedule and production & revenue stream based on engineering simulation

• Economic outcome based on discounted-cash-flow (DCF) model

2006 Beaufort Price/Supply Curve (Mean Resource Case)

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20Billons of Barrels of Oil & Condensate

Oil

Pric

e $2

005/

bbl a

t U.S

. Wes

t Coa

st

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

$11

$12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20Trillions of Cubic Feet of Gas

Gas

Pric

e $2

005/

Mcf

at U

.S. M

idw

est

OIL & CONDENSATE

FREE GAS ANDSOLUTION GAS

Data & Image Provided by C. Reitmeier, Dec '05

Economic ThresholdsOil $22 ($2005)/barrelGas $3.33 ($2005)/Mcf

ANS Crude $55-$65/bblSept ’05-Mar ‘06

2006 Chukchi Price/Supply Curve (Mean Resource Case)

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60Billions of Barrels of Oil & Condensate

Oil

Pric

e $2

005/

bbl a

t U.S

. Wes

t Coa

st

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

$11

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60Trillions of Cubic Feet of Gas

Gas

Pric

e $2

005/

Mcf

at U

.S. M

idw

est

OIL & CONDENSATE

FREE GAS ANDSOLUTION GAS

Data & Image Provided by C. Reitmeier, Dec '05

Economic ThresholdsOil $30 ($2005)/barrelGas $4.54 ($2005)/Mcf

ANS Crude $55-$65/bblSept ’05-Mar ‘06

6 Lease Sales for Arctic OffshoreSale No. Area Year202 Beaufort Sea Mar 2007193 Chukchi Sea 2007?209 Beaufort Sea 2009211 Cook Inlet 2009212 Chukchi Sea 2010217 Beaufort Sea 2011219 Cook Inlet 2011221 Chukchi Sea 2012

Documents

Petroleum Potential of the Arctic Offshore of Alaska€¦ · quat. (argillite) endicott gp shublik fm sag river fm pebble sh. nanushuk gp colville gp sagavanirktok fm. gubik fm (south)