PES Training Session · Search Trends Google Employment BLS/O*NET Job Postings Burning Glass Placement Rates Gray Research Wages ACS, BLS, DoE GE Demographics U.S. Census & ACS Cost

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 1 Confidential

PESTrainingSessionDataDefinitionsPacket

December4th,2017

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 2

ProgramEvaluationSystem

Gray Associates’ Education Market Database

CompletionsIPEDS

StudentInquiriesGrayReports

SearchTrendsGoogle

EmploymentBLS/O*NET

JobPostingsBurningGlass

PlacementRatesGrayResearch

WagesACS,BLS,DoEGE

DemographicsU.S.Census&ACS

CostDataNHEBI

WorkplaceRequirementsSkillsEngine


ProgramScoring

§  Keycriteriaaregroupedintothefourmaincategoriesnotedbelow.

Wescorebasedonfourbroadcategoriesofprogramattributes.Withineachcategory,wescoreavarietyofmetricstoobtainabalancedperspective.

StudentDemand Employment

StrategicFit

CompetitiveIntensity


StudentDemand

StudentDemand

Size

Growth

InquiryVolume

CompletionVolume

Source:GrayReports§  Currentsample§ Maynothaveallprograms§ Marketingdependent

Year-Over-YearUnitChange

Year-Over-YearPercentageChange

Source:IPEDS§  Dated§  Allprograms

GoogleSearchVolume

Source:Google§  Current§  200LargestPrograms


StudentDemandDemandmetricsincludestudentinquiries,inquirygrowth,andcompletions.

StudentDemand

Employment

StrategicFit


Sizedemandbyprogram

StudentInquiries Completions

§  InquiriesTotal:Totalvolumeofinquiriesoverthepastyear

§  (Inquiries)Online:Totalvolumeofinquiriesforonlineprogramsoverthepastyear

§  InquiriesbyAwardLevel:Percentofinquiriesbyawardlevel

Confirmprogramandmarketsizeandgrowth

§ Total:NumberofannualcompletionsfromIPEDSforthespecifiedmarket

Confirmprogramandmarketsizeandgrowth

§ Total:NumberofGooglesearchesonthetop25keywordsforthe200largestprogramsoverthemostrecentquarter

Purpose

Metrics

UseandApplicability

§  Currentindicator

§  Strongforvocationalandothertypesofprogramscommonlyofferedonlineorbyfor-profitinstitutions

§  Changesmayreflectinstitutionalmarketingeffortsaswellasunderlyingstudentdemand

Sources:§  InquiriesfromGrayReportsInquiryDatabase(over50millionstudentinquiries).

§  CompletionsfromIPEDSwithenhancedcoding.§  Googlekeywords

§  ComprehensiveforTitleIVprograms

§  Laggingindicator

Year-Over-YearChange

Identifyemerginganddecliningprograms,andcompetitiveactivities

§ UnitChange:Theyear-over-yearchangeinnumberofinquiries,completions,andGooglesearches

§ PercentageChange:Thepercentagechangeintotalinquiry,completions,andGooglekeywordsearchvolumeyear-over-year

GoogleSearch

§  Currentindicator

§  Onlyincludesthelargestprograms


Employment

Employment

TotalEmployment

NewJobPostings

AnnualJobOpenings

CompoundAnnualGrowthRate

(CAGR)

NewJobPostingsGrowth PlacementRateJobPostingsPer

Graduate

SaturationGrowth

Size Pay

Source:BLS§  Survey§  Dated§  Stable

Source:BurningGlass§  ActualJobs§  Current§  Volatile

NationalACSWagesWages National

GEWages


Employment(BLSandPlacement)Employmentcoversjobs,jobgrowth,andjobmarketsaturation.

Purpose

Metrics

StudentDemand

Employment

StrategicFit


UseandApplicability

§ BLSisbestsourceofdataonthenumberofpeopleemployedinafield.

§  JobOpeningsandGrowthareBLSforecaststhatareastandardsourcebuthavelimitedpredictiveaccuracy.

§ Allemploymentandjobopeningsdataissensitivetohowoccupation-leveldataismatchedtoacademicprograms.

§ Thewagesareaproxyforentry-levelinanoccupationinaspecificmarketandarecommonlyusedbyinstitutionswhenassessingGainfulEmploymentrisks.

Sources:Employment,JobOpenings,andJobGrowthdatafromBLS,mappedfromSOCtoCIPbyGray.JobsperGraduateusesJobOpeningsandenhancedIPEDScompletions.WagesarelocalBLS10th-percentilewagesforoccupationsmatchedbyGraytotheprogram.EmploymentratesareweightedaveragesfromGainfulEmploymentdisclosuresfrominstitutionwebsites.

§ BestsourceforprogramswithbigGEpresence–typicallyAssociate’sandbelowvocationalprograms.

Size-uptheemploymentopportunityforgraduates

AnnualJobOpenings

JobGrowth(CAGR)

§ AnnualJobOpenings:BureauofLaborStatistics(BLS)estimateofJobOpenings,includinggrowthandre-employment

Assessfutureemploymentmarketsize

§ BLS’estimatedCompoundAnnualGrowthRate(CAGR)foremployment

PlacementRate

Determineifcurrentgraduatescanfindjobs

§ Employmentratesbyschoolandawardlevel,weightedbyschoolcompletions


TotalEmployment

§ TotalEmployment:BureauofLaborStatistics(BLS)estimateofthetotalnumberofjobs

Wages

IdentifyprogramswithgoodstudentROI;meetGEstandards

§ 10th-percentilewagesforprogram-relatedoccupations,byawardlevel,asreportedbyBLS


Employment(BurningGlassTechnologies)Employmentcoversjobs,jobgrowth,andjobmarketsaturation.

Purpose

Metrics

StudentDemand

Employment

StrategicFit


UseandApplicability

§  Jobpostingsarethemostcurrentinformationavailableonemploymentopportunities.

§ Allemploymentandjobopeningsdataissensitivetohowoccupation-leveldataismatchedtoacademicprograms.

Sources:NewJobPostingsandNewJobPostingsGrowthfromBurningGlassTechnologies,mappedfromSOCtoCIPbyGray.JobPostingsperGraduateusesNewJobPostingsandenhancedIPEDScompletions.

Identifyemerginganddecliningcareerfield

NewJobPostingsGrowth

§ AbsoluteChangeinNewJobPostings:Year-over-yearchangeinnewjobpostings

§ PercentageChangeinNewJobPostings:Year-over-yearpercentagechangeinnewjobpostings

JobPostingsPerGraduate

Evaluatethebalanceofsupplyanddemandforgraduatesandjobs

§ NewJobPostingsdividedbythenumberofIPEDScompletionsfortheprogram


NewJobPostings

§ NewJobPostings:TotalnumberofnewjobpostingsoverthepastyearpulledfromBurningGlassTechnologies


Employment(Wages)Employmentcoversjobs,jobgrowth,andjobmarketsaturation.

Evaluatelong-termstudentemploymentoutcomesforBachelor’s-degreeprogramsandAssociate’s-degreetransferprograms

NationalACSWages(30-60)

§ Nationalweighted-averagewageforfull-time-employedgraduatesofbachelor’s-levelprogramsbetweentheagesof30and60

Purpose

Metrics

StudentDemand

Employment

StrategicFit


Evaluatemoderate-termstudentemploymentoutcomesforBachelor’s-degreeprogramsandAssociate’s-degreetransferprograms

NationalACSWages(Age<30)

§ Nationalweighted-averagewageforfull-time-employedgraduatesofbachelor’s-levelprogramsundertheageof30

UseandApplicability

§ BestavailabledataonactualwageoutcomesofBachelor’sdegreeprograms–particularlyforprogramsthatcouldleadtoawiderangeofoccupationalfield

§ SupplementaldatasourceonactualwageoutcomesforAssociate’sdegreetransferprograms

§ Levelofdetailisbetween4-digitand6-digitCIP,soslightlylessdetailedthanotheremploymentoutcomesdata

§ Excludespeoplewhoarenotfull-timeemployed(voluntarilyorotherwise),sonotagoodmetricfortheoddsoffindingajob

Sources:AnalysisofroughlytwomillionrecordsinthePublicUseMicroSamplefromtheAmericanCommunitySurvey.

Evaluatelong-termstudentemploymentoutcomesforAssociate’s-degreeandCertificateprograms

NationalGEWages

§ Nationalaveragewageforgraduatesofassociate’s-levelandcertificate-levelprograms


VolumeofCompetition

MarketSaturation



CompletionsPerCapita CostPerInquiry

AverageandMedian

ProgramSize

ChangeinProgramSize

NumberofCompetitors

ChangeinNumberofCompetitors

NationalDistanceEducation

GoogleCompetitionIndex

CostPerClick(Google)

Source:IPEDS§ MarketChanges§  Stable§  Self-Reported


CompetitiveIntensityCompetitiveIntensitycoversthenumber,density,andsaturationofcompetition.

Revealthevolumeandconcentrationofcompetition

NumberofInstitutions

ChangeinNumberofInstitutions

CostPerInquiry

§  ThetotalnumberofcompetitorsreportingIPEDScompletions.

Identifyprogramswhereschoolsareenteringorleavingthemarket

§  Theyear-over-yearchangeinthetotalnumberofinstitutionsreportingcompletions.

Evaluatethebalanceofsupplyanddemandforgraduatesandjobs

§  Theaverageamountpaidperinquirybyanagencyoraschool.

Purpose

Metrics

CostPerClick

Evaluatethecostofmarketing

§  TheaveragecostperclickforasearchthroughGoogle.

StudentDemand

Employment

StrategicFit


UseandApplicability

§  Bestmeasureofnumberofcompetingprograms

§  Excludesonlineprogramsnotreportedinthemarket

Sources:NumberofInstitutionsandChangeinNumberofInstitutionsfromIPEDS(withGrayenhancements).CostperInquiryfromGrayReportsInquiryData,forpay-per-leadinquiries.CompletionspercapitafromIPEDScompletions(enhanced)andCensusPopulation–Age18-44.CostperclickandCompetitiveIndexfromGoogle.

§  Indicationofwhethercompetitionisintensifying

§  Departingprogramsmayindicateanopportunityoraproblem

§  Indicatorofthemarketingspendofaprogram

§  Importantindicatorofcompetitiveintensityforprogramsthatplantobuystudentinquiries

CompetitiveIndex

EvaluatetheamountofcompetitionbasedonGoogleAdwords

§  Competitionindexmeasuredfrom0(low)to1(verycompetitive)

§  Indicatorofthelevelsofcompetitioncomparedtoeveryotherprogram

CompletionsPerCapita

Determineifcurrentgraduatescanfindjobs

§  NumberofIPEDScompletionsper1,000peopleaged18-44.

§  Indicatorofdemandsaturationrelativetocomparableprograminothermarkets


CompetitiveIntensity(cont’d)CompetitiveIntensitycoversthenumber,densityandsaturationofcompetition.

Size-uptheprogramsizeforanaverageprogram

AverageandMedianProgram

Size

ChangeinMedianProgramSize

NationalDistanceEducationInstitutions

§ AverageProgramSize:Theaveragenumberofcompletionsperinstitution.

§ MedianProgramSize:Thenumberofcompletionsforthemedianprogram.

Indicatemarketsaturation(decliningprogramsize)

§ AbsoluteChangeinMedianProgramSize:Theyear-over-yearchangeinthenumberofcompletionsforthemedianprogram.

§ PCTChangeintheMedianProgramSize:Thepercentagechangeinthenumberofcompletionsforthemedianprogram.

Identifythemodalitythatschoolsoffer

§ Thenationalpercentageofinstitutionsreportingdistanceeducationcompletionscomparedtothetotalnumberofinstitutions.

Purpose

Metrics

NationalDistanceEducation

Completions

Identifythemodalitythatgraduatesattended

§ Thenationalpercentageofcompletionsreportedtodistanceeducationprogramscomparedtothetotalnumberofcompletions.

StudentDemand

Employment

StrategicFit


UseandApplicability

§ Bestmetricforestimatingpotentialprogramsize

Sources:AlldatacalculatedfromIPEDScompletionsinformation,withGray’senhancementstoprogramcoding.

§  Indicationofwhethercompetingprogramsaregrowingorshrinking

§  Lowpercentagesindicatethatofferingtheprogramonlinemaynotbefeasible.

§ Highpercentagesindicatethatstudentpreferenceforonlineisparticularlystrong.


StrategicFit

StrategicFit

EducationalAttainmentoftheWorkforce

DegreeLevelsofGraduates

CostIndex

StudenttoFacultyRatio

Index

Source:BLSIPEDS

Source:NHEBI


StrategicFitDegreeLevelsandWageshelptoidentifythefitofaprogramwiththeschool’sfocus.

Identifytheappropriatedegreelevelforaprogram

Graduates:DegreeLevel

Employment:DegreeLevel

§ Percentageofcompletionsbydegreelevel:Certificate,Associate’s,Bachelor’s,Master’sorDoctoral

Matchawardlevelswithjobrequirements

§ Percentageofpeopleemployedinthefieldthatcurrentlyholdeacheducationcredentialastheirhighestattainment

Purpose

Metrics

StudentDemand

Employment

StrategicFit


UseandApplicability

§ Helpsassessmostappropriatedegreelevelforaprogram

§ Canhighlightprogramsthataretypicallynotofferedfortheintendeddegreelevel

§ Canhelpidentifywhenstudentswillbecompetingagainstgraduateswithhigherorlessexpensivecredentials

Sources:Graduates:DegreeLevelisfromenhancedIPEDScompletionsdata.Employment:DegreeLevelisfromBLSanalysisofthePublicUseMicroSampleoftheAmericanCommunitySurvey.CostandStudenttoFacultyRatioIndexesarefromNHEBI.

§ Helpsassesswhethertheprogramwillbetheappropriatelevelofpreparationfortheintendedjobs

CostIndex

Revealthecostofteachingaprogramrelativetoeveryotherprogram

§ Thecostoffacultyforaprogram,indexedtotheaverage.Anaverageprogramhasavalueof1.

§ Helpsassesswhethertheprogramcostsmoreorlessthanaveragetoteach.

§ DataisfromCommunityCollege(Associate’sandbelow)

Determinewhetherornotalotoffacultywillbeneededtooffertheprogram

§ Thestudenttofacultyratio,indexedtotheaverage.Anaverageprogramhasavalueof1.

§ Helpsassesswhethertheprogramwillneedmorefacultythantheaverageprogram.

§ DataisfromCommunityCollege(Associate’sandbelow)

StudenttoFacultyRatioIndex

Documents

PES Training Session · Search Trends Google Employment BLS/O*NET Job Postings Burning Glass Placement Rates Gray Research Wages ACS, BLS, DoE GE Demographics U.S. Census & ACS Cost