Perkembangan Baru dalam Teori Ekonomi Makro dan Implikasinya bagi Pengertian Ekonomi Indonesia

O l e h : Hartojo Wignjowijoto

S u m m a r y

The objectives of this articie are to present certain aspects of modem develop­ment in macro-economic theory, in particular disequilibrium analysis, to dis­cuss some issues of macro-economic disequilibrium, such as unemployment, non-Wairasian models, rationality of conjectures and the role of money in the exchange stmcture, and to explore the implication of modem develop­ment in macro-economic theory in understanding the Indonesian macro-economy.

Based on a brief literature review of pathbreaking articles, this paper concludes that in the last two decades, the theoretical developments, which attempt to describe the adjustment process through "prices", proceed very slowly relative to the theoretical developments explaining the "quantity" or non-price adjustments. Several explanations have been discussed, among others, the different nature of information stmcture faced by individual and the mismatch among individual's "wishes" in demanding commodities.

Of these explanations, there are no progress recorded with regard to the explanation of the basic causes of unemployment, which is in fact a disequilibrium phenomenon in the labor market, shown by a quantity adjust­ment ( unemployment).

The article proceeds by reviewing anaiyticaiiy disequilibrium analysis of the 1980's. There are essentially two basic macro-economic disequilibrium model. First, fixed price models, which held price variable remains constant in the short-mn, then finds out the quantities adjustment by way of "taton-nement" as practiced in the Walrasian model. Secondly, the macro-economic disequilibrium model, based on Barro-Grossman model, assumes that an indi­vidual expresses her/his effective demand for commodities by violating her/ his own constraints but taking into account other individual's contraints.

The implication of the modem development in macro-economic theory for understanding the Indonesian economy is penetrating. This includes, among others, that price vectors have been largely determined by the Indo-

E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1 , March 1982 69

nesian government (such as subsidies, price-floor of certain commodities, transfer payment and credit system) on the assumption that price is an equilibrator variable; that the information structure varies significantly across region such that price ceased its traditional role of a resource allocator; that the Indonesian economic actors have been necessarily violating their own constraints and have taken into account other's constraints (in Javanese called "tepo sliro " - thinking in term of other people's shoes).

This articie, therefore, presents research agenda for further studies. Studies on "prices versus quantities" in rearranging the economic activities within the high transactioncost economy such as Indonesia, studies on the informationaliy-decentraiized economy as evidenced by the island configura­tion attitude of the individual in the Indonesian setting, and studies on the organizational framework of the Indonesian development process.

I . Pendahuluan

P a d a w a k t u k a m i m e n e r i m a u n d a n g a n d a r i F a k u l t a s E k o n o m i U n i v e r s i t a s P a j a j a r a n , u n t u k m e m b e r i k a n c e r a m a b t e n t a n g p e r k e m b a n g a n t e r a k b i r d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i - M a k r o , k a m i m e n y a m b u t d e n g a n s a n g a t g e m b n a d a n e n t h u ­s i a s t k a r e n a a d a b e b e r a p a a s p e k d a r i p e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t y a n g p e r l u d i k a j i l e b i b l a n j u t d a l a m m e n y e m p u r n a k a n p e n g e r t i a n k i t a t e n t a n g e k o n o m i I n d o ­n e s i a .

S e p e r t i d i k e t a h u i , e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a m e m i l i k i salah satu c i r i , b a b w a "quantity adjustment" m e m e g a n g p e r a n a n l e b i b p e n t m g d a l a m " c l e a r i n g " a n t a r a s e k t o r - s e k t o r e k o n o m i y a n g m e n g a l a m i k e t i d a k - s e i m b a n g a n a n t a r a p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n daripada "price adjustment", k a r e n a " p r i c e v e c ­t o r s " d a l a m k e b i d u p a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a t e l a b b a n y a k d i t e t a p k a n o l e b s e k t o r P e m e r i n t a h .

T u j u a n u t a m a t u b s a n i n i u n t u k m e n y a m p a i k a n k e m a j u a n - k e m a j u a n p e m i k i r a n d i b i d a n g t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o , t e r u t a m a a n a b s a " d i s e q u i l i b r i u m " .

A n a l i s a " d i s e q u i b b r i u m " p a d a d a s a m y a m a s i b b e r p i j a k p a d a " W a l r a s i a n e q u i l i b r i u m " b a n y a s a j a b a i k " r a t i o n i n g s c b e m e " - n y a m a u p u n j e n i s e q u i l i -b r i u m n y a b e r b e d a , k a r e n a p e r b e d a a n a s u m s i . S e l a n j u t n y a u n t u k m e n j a g a k e s i n a m b u n g a n , m a k a k a m i t e r l e b i h d a b u l u m e n i n j a u k e p u s t a k a a n ( l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w ) y a n g d i a n g g a p p e n t i n g ( " b r e a k t b r o u g b a r t i c l e s " ) d a l a m m e n e l a a b l e b i b l a n j u t p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o d a l a m d a s a w a r s a 1 9 8 0 - a n .

T u j u a n k e d u a , k a m i i n g i n m e m b i c a r a k a n b e b e r a p a m a s a l a b e k o n o m i -m a k r o b e r s i f a t " d i s e q u i l i b r i u m " d a r i s e g i t e o r i d a n k o n d i s i - k o n d i s i y a n g d i ­p e r l u k a n b a g i t e o r i . A s p e k i n i t e r m a s u k p e r m a s a l a b a n u n e m p l o y m e n t , t e o r i e k o n o m i m a k r o b e r d a s a r . j i o n - W a l r a s i a n M o d e l s " , m a s a l a b " r a t i o n a l i t y o f

E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1, March 1982

c o n j e c t u r e s " ( l o g i k a n y a d a r i t a n g g a p a n p e l a k u e k o n o m i ) , p e r a n a n u a n g d a l a m s t r u k t u r l a l u l i n t a s p e n u k a r a n ( e x c h a n g e s t r u c t u r e ) .

T u j u a n k e t i g a , k a m i i n g i n m e n g u n g k a p k a n b e b e r a p a i m p l i k a s i p e r k e m ­b a n g a n b a r u d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o b a g i p e n g e r t i a n k i t a t e n t a n g e k o n o ­m i I n d o n e s i a . P e r m a s a l a b a n t e n t a n g " q u a n t i t y a d j u s t m e n t " , " r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " y a n g b e r l a k u d i I n d o n e s i a , d a n p e r s o a l a n y a n g p a l i n g b e s a r y a i t u " u n e m p l o y m e n t " .

D a r i k e t i g a t u j u a n t e r s e b u t , t u j u a n k e d u a a k a n m e n e m p a t i s e b a g i a n b e s a r d a r i p e n y a j i a n k a m i ; s e d a n g k a n t u j u a n k e t i g a , y a i t u p e n i n j a u a n i m p l i ­k a s i p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i t e r s e b u t b a g i I n d o n e s i a d a p a t d i p a k a i s e b a g a i t i t i k t o l a k u n t u k d i s k u s i d a n a g e n d a p e n e l i t i a n . P e n e k a n a n p a d a t e o r i d a l a m p e ­n y a j i a n k e r t a s k e r j a i n i d i m a k s u d k a n u n t u k m e n a m b a h "stock of knowledge" d i b i d a n g t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o p a d a F a k u l t a s E k o n o m i b a i k d i U n i v e r s i t a s P a j a j a r a n , m a u p u n u n i v e r s i t a s - u n i v e r s i t a s l a i n n y a .

S e b a g a i p e n d a h u l u a n k a m i i n g i n m e n g g a r i s b a w a b i peranan d a n batas-an-batasan (limitations) d a r i t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o .

T e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o b e r p e r a n m e n g a r a h k a n t i t i k f o k u s p c n g a m a t a n k i t a s e c a r a " a g g r e g a t e " ( k e s e l u r u h a n ) . C i r i " a g g r e g a t e " b e r a r t i b a b w a k i t a m e ­n e k a n i n f o r m a s i - i n f o r m a s i p a d a t i n g k a t m i k r o ( p e r o r a n g a n , l o k a l d a n r e ­g i o n a l ) , p e r b e d a a n m i k r o s a l i n g t e r b a p u s ( i n a g g r e g a t e , t h e s e m i c r o d i f f e r e n ­c e s a r e e a c h c a n c e l l e d o u t b y t h e o t h e r ) . " A g g r e g a t e " j u g a b e r a r t i d i a n g g a p m e m i l i k i c i r i r e p r e s e n t a s i ( r e p r e s e n t a t i v e ) y a n g k b a s d a r i k e a n e k a r a g a m e l e m e n - e l e m e n e k o n o m i t i n g k a t m i k r o .

P e r s o a l a n " a g r e g a t i o n " i n i m e n d u d u k i t e m p a t s p e s i a l i s a s i t e r s e n d i r i d a l a m p e n e b t i a n t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o . ' B a n y a k c a r a u n t u k m e n y u s u n " a g ­g r e g a t i o n " , t e r g a n t u n g p a d a m a k s u d p e n e l i t i a n t e o r i e k o n o m i m i a k r o d a n b a t a s a n - b a t a s a n y a n g d a p a t d i t e r i m a . M i s a l n y a p r o s e d u r " a g g r e g a t i o n " a t a s d a s a r t r a n s a k s i e k o n o m i d i t i n g k a t m i k r o , p r o s e d u r " a g g r e g a t i o n " a t a s k o m o ­d i t i d a n c a r a " a g r e g a t i o n " y a n g a k a n d i p a k a i d i p i l i b a n t a r a a p a k a b m e m a k a i " q u a n t i t y " a t a u m e n g g u n a k a n " p r i c e s " a t a u s a t u a n - s a t u a n l a i n n y a s e b a g a i a l a t " a g g r e g a t o r " .

S e l a n j u t n y a , d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o , i n t e r a k s i v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l " a g g r e g a t e s " , y a n g d i r i n g k a s d a l a m b e n t u k h u b u n g a n f u n g s i o n U d a l a m m a t e -m a t i k a ( f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p i n a m a t h e m a t i c a l s e n s e ) b e r d a s a r k a n a s s u m s i

1 Lihat H.A.J. Gteen, Aggregation i n Economic Analysis, Princeton University, 1964, Axel Leijonhufvud, . O n Keynesian Economicsc and the Economics o f Keynes, A Study in Monetary Theory, Oxford University Press, 1968, halaman 111 - 142, dan Catatan kecil oleh Robert Demand", A Note on Defining Economic Aggregates", Harvard Insti­tute of Economic) Research, Harvard University, Cambridge, October 1968.

E K I , VoL X X X , Mb. 1, March 1982 61

s e o l a h - o l a h h u b u n g a n f u n g s i o n i l a n t a r a v a r i a b e l m i k r o t e t a p b e r l a k u . H a l i n i d i k a t a k a n s e c a r a t e k n i s , b a b w a k o n d i s i " p e r f e c t a g g r e g a t i o n " t e r p e n u b i .

P e r a n a n b e r i k u t n y a d a r i t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o a d i i l a b m e n g k l a s i f i k a s i -k a n s e k t o r - s e k t o r s e b a g a i s a t u a n p a s a r a n ( m a r k e t ) y a n g m e m i l i k i u n s u r p e ­n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n b e s e r t a m e k a n i s m e c a r a p e n y e s u a i a n a n t a r a k e d u a u n s u r t e r s e b u t . H a l i n i k e l i h a t a n n y a m u d a b , p a d a b a l p e n u b m i s t e r i d a l a m p e n e m u a n p r o s e s p e n y e s u a i a n f a k t o r - f a k t o r p e r m i n t a a n d a n p e n a w a r a n . ^

S e b a g a i c o n t o b k l a s i f i k a s i , i a l a b k l a s i f i k a s i s e k t o r ( p a s a r a n ) t e n a g a k e r ­j a , s e k t o r k o m o d i t i ( g o o d s m a r k e t ) , s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a h , s e k t o r p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i . D a n t e r u t a m a i n t e r a k s i a n t a r a s e k t o r - s e k t o r t e r s e b u t d a l a m b a l t e r j a d i k e t i d a k - s e i m b a n g a n ( i m b a l a n c e s b e t w e e n s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d ) d i m a ­s i n g - m a s i n g s e k t o r . D e n g a n d e m i l d a n , t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o d a p a t b e r p e r a n a n p e n t m g d a l a m m e n g a r a h k a n p e n e n t u a n tingkat harga (Price level). M i s a l n y a , " m o n e t a r i s t s " m e m a k a i c a r a p e n d e k a t a n " a g r e g a t i v e " t e r b a d a p t i n g k a t b a r g a ( t h e p r i c e l e v e l ) . M o n e t a r i s t s m e i i b a t p e r u b a b a n - p e r u b a b a n d a l a m j u m l a b u a n g d i p e r e d a r a n u n t u k m e n e n t u k a n p e r u b a b a n - p e r u b a b a n d a l a m p e r m i n t a ­a n " a g r e g a t e " ( a g g r e g a t e d e m a n d ) , d a n k e m u d i a n p e r u b a h a n p e r m i n t a a n " a g ­g r e g a t e s " d i b a g i m e n j a d i p e r u b a h a n " p r i c e s " d a n p e r a b a b a n " q u a n t i t y " . A k a n t e t a p i , j a n g a n d i l u p a k a n b a b w a p r o s e s p e n y e s u a i a n a n t a r a k e k u a t a n -k e k u a t a n p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n d i s e t i a p s e k t o r t i d a k s e l a l u l e w a t " P r i c e s " . M a l a b a n " P r i c e s " m e n g i k u t i s e k i a n l a g ( p e n u n d a a n ) s e t e l a b a d a " q u a n t i t y a d j u s t m e n t " .

T e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o j u g a s e k a U g u s b e r p e r a n a n p e n t i n g d a l a m m e ­n e n t u k a n a r a b d a r i p e m b a g i a n p e n g h a s i l a n n a s i o n a l . M i s a l n y a , p e r k e m b a n g ­a n t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o " I n c o m e D i s t r i b u t i o n " , y a n g p a d a m u l a n y a d i b a b a s o l e b P r o f e s s o r K e n n e t h B o u l d i n g , F r a n k H a b n d a n P a u l A . S a m u e l s o n m e ­r u p a k a n s a l a b s a t u k e g i a t a n a k t i f d a l a m p e n e l i t i a n t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o d e w a s a i n i .

K a r e n a p o l a p e m b a g i a n p e n g h a s i l a n n a s i o n a l ( d i k e n a l d i I n d o n e s i a s e ­b a g a i " p e m e r a t a a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d a n p e m e r a t a a n p e n g h a s i l a n " ) s a n g a t t e r g a n t u n g k e p a d a s i a p a k i t a b e b a n k a n k e w a j i b a n u n t u k m e n g a k u m u l a s i

2 Bagi para pembaca yang cukup memiliki latar belakang matematika, dipersilahkan menikmati pembuktian cara penyesuaian antar unsur penawaran dan permintaan dalam David Gale, "The Law of Supply and Demand.., M a t h e m a t i c a Scandinavia, volume I I I , Fasciculus 1,1955, halaman 155 - 169.

62 E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1, March 1982

" s a v i n g s " s e b a g a i m o d a l u n t u k b i a y a P e m b a n g u n a n ' : a p a k a b k e p a d a b u r u b , p e m i l i k m o d a l , s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a b , a t a u s e k t o r s w a s t a .

S a y a n g s e k a l i p e r a n a n - p e r a n a n d a n b a t a s a n - b a t a s a n t e o r i e k o n o m i -m a k r o i n i t i d a k d a p a t s e l u r u b n y a k a m i t u a n g k a n d a l a m k e r t a s k e r j a i n i , k a ­r e n a t e r b a t a s n y a w a k t u d a n n a n t i m a l a b m e m b i n g u n g k a n p a r a p e m b a c a . D i l a i n k e s e m p a t a n k a m i i n g i n m e n g u r a i k a n l e b i b l a n j u t .

S i n g k a t n y a , p e m b i c a r a a n k a m i t e n t a n g p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r u d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o sangat terbatas p a d a m a s a l a b - m a s a l a b t e o r i E k o n o m i - M a k r o D i s e q u i l i b r i u m . I t u p u n b a n y a t e r b a t a s p a d a a s p e k - a s p e k t e r t e n t u s a j a . K a r e n a d e n g a n m e m f o k u s k a n p a d a a s p e k t e r t e n t u k i t a a k a n l e b i b b i s a m e r e n u n g -k a n i m p l i k a s i n y a b a g j I n d o n e s i a d a r i p a d a m e m b i c a r a k a n b a l - b a l y a n g b e r ­s i f a t u m u m d a n p e r b a t i a n k i t a t e r b a g i k e s e g a l a a r a b .

D e n g a n d e m i l d a n , d a l a m m a k a i a b i n i , k a m i tidak membicarakan per­kembangan baru dalam teori ekonomi-makro yang menyangkut cabang-cabang berikut y a n g p e n t i n g d i i k u t i d e n g a n c e r m a t o l e b p a r a s a r j a n a e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a m o d e m d e w a s a i n i , m i s a l n y a : 1 . M a c r o E c o n o m i c D i s t r i b u t i o n T b e o r y ; 2 . M o d e m P u b l i c F i n a n c e ; 3 . D y n a m i c H i c k s i a n I S - L M ( I n v e s t m e n t , S a v i n g - l i q u i d i t y P r e f e r e n c e

d a n M o n e y S u p p l y ) ; 4 . T b e S t m c t u r e o f M o n e t a r i s m ; 5 . M o n e t a r y G r o w t h T b e o r y ; 6 . T b e o r y o f D e v e l o p m e n t i n D u a l E c o n o m i e s ; 7 . D a n s e t e m s n y a t o p i k - t o p i k y a n g m e n y a n g k u t p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i

e k o n o m i - m a k r o b a i k d i n e g a r a m e g a r a y a n g m a j u d a n y a n g s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g . C a r a p e n y a j i a n s e l a n j u t n y a a d a l a b s e b a g a i b e r i k u t . B a b 1 1 a k a n m e n i n j a u k e p u s t a k a a n m u l a i d a r i t u l i s a n o l e b P a t i n k i n

( 2 4 ) , C l o w e r ( 1 4 ) , B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n ( 9 ) , L e i j o n h u f v u d ( 2 0 ) s a m p a i k e p a d a l i t e r a t u r e a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 0 d a l a m Econometrica, b u l a n M a r e t 1 9 8 0 . A n a l i s a D i s e q u i b b r i u m a d a l a b s u a t u p r o s e s y a n g s e k a r a n g a k t i f s e d a n g b e r j a l a n ( o n ­g o i n g a c t i v i t i e s ) , s e h i n g g a k i t a t i d a k m u n g k i n b i s a t u n t a s m e m b i c a r a k a n d a l a m m a k a i a b m i . P e n i n j a u a n m i b e r s i f a t p a e d a g o g i k , s e b i n g g a b a g i p e m -

3 Bagi pembaca yang berminat dalam teori ekonomi-makro 'Income Distribution", dipersilahkan mengkaji kelanjutan perdebatan "capital theory" ditulis oleh Pasinetti, Samuelson-Modigliani dalam T h e Review o f Economic Studies sekitar tahun 1975 (?) dan Iain-lain literature seperti misalnya oleh L . Pasinetti, Growth and I n c o m e D i s t r i b u ­tion : Essays i n Economic Theory, Cambridge University Press, London 1974 dan N . Kaldor "Alternative Theories of Distribution", T h e Review o f Economic Studies, 1955/ 56, halaman 83 - 1 0 0 .

E K I , Vol . X X X , No. 1, March 1982 68

b a c a t e n a g a p e n g a j a r d i u n i v e r s i t a s , k a l a u p u n t i d a k a d a w a k t u m e m b a c a p a ­l i n g s e d i k i t d i h a r a p k a n d a p a t m e m b e r i k a n a s s i g n m e n t k e p a d a p a r a m a b a s i s -w a n y a .

B a b 111 m e m b i c a r a k a n b e b e r a p a a s p e k d a r i A n a U s a D i s e q u i l i b r i u m . T o p i k y a n g a k a n k a m i u r a i k a n t e r b a t a s p a d a t i g a t o p i k b e r i k u t : s i f a t d a s a r d a r i " N o n - W a l r a s i a n M o d e l s " , p e r s o a l a n " r a t i o n a l i t y o f c o n j e c t u r e s " ( l o g i k a ­n y a d a r i t a n g g a p a n p e l a k u e k o n o m i ) d a n p e r a n a n u a n g d a l a m s t r u k t u r l a l u l i n t a s p e r t u k a r a n ( e x c h a n g e s t r u c t u r e ) .

B a b r V m e n g u n g k a p k a n i m p U k a s i p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r u d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o b a g i p e n y e m p u m a a n p e n g e r t i a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . P e n y a ­j i a n m a n a d i m a k s u d k a n s e b a g a i t i t i k t o l a k d i s k u s i d a n s e b a g a i p e n g a r a b a n u s a b a p e n e l i t i a n d i b i d a n g t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o u n t u k I n d o n e s i a . T o p i k y a n g a k a n d i k e m u k a k a n , a n t a r a l a i n a d a l a b " u n e m p l o y m e n t " d a n " r a t i o n i n g s c h e ­m e " .

B a b V m e n y a r a n k a n s e c a r a s i n g k a t b e b e r a p a b i d a n g p e n e l i t i a n t e o r i e k o n o m i y a n g p e r l u d i k e m b a n g k a n .

B a b V I s e b a g a i p e n u t u p m e n y i m p u l k a n b a s i l - b a s i l k e m a j u a n p e r k e m ­b a n g a n d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o , k h u s u s n y a a s p e k - a s p e k t e r t e n t u d a r i a n a l i s a D i s e q u i l i b r i u m . R i n g k a s a n i m p l i k a s i b a g i p e n y e m p u m a a n p e n g e r t i a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d a n p r o s p e k k e m a j u a n t e o r i e k o n o m i M a k r o p a d a u m u m -n y a .

D a f t a r k e p u s t a k a a n d a n A p p e n d i x t e n t a n g b e b e r a p a a s p e k a n a b s a D i s e q u i l i b r i u m d i s a j i k a n d i b a g i a n t e r a k b i r d a r i m a k a i a b i n i . D a l a m d a f ­t a r k e p u s t a k a a n d i c a n t u m k a n p u l a l i t e r a t u r - U t e r a t u r t e r t e n t u y a n g p e r l u d i -U b a t s e b a g a i l a t a r b e l a k a n g d a l a m m e n e l a a b l e b i b l a n j u t m a s a l a b - m a s a l a b y a n g d i k e m u k a k a n d i s i n i .

n . Peninjauan Kepustakaan (literature review) ,

P e n i n j a u a n k e p u s t a k a a n ( l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w ) t e n t a n g p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r u t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o a d a l a b t u g a s ( a s s i g r u n e n t ) y a n g t i d a k a d a b a b i s n y a . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a m a k i n t a j a m n y a spesialisasi di bidang ilmu ekonomi, s e ­b i n g g a s e r i n g k a b p a r a a b l i e k o n o m i d i m a s i n g - m a s i n g b i d a n g t i d a k d a p a t m e n g i k u t i r e k a n - r e k a i m y a d i b i d a n g s p e s i a l i s a s i d i l u a r s p e s i a l i s a s i n y a s e n d i r i . P c n g a m a t a n k a m i i n i b e r l a k u t e m t a m a d i n e g a r a q i e g a r a y a n g s u d a b m a j u .

K e a d a a n e k s t r i m d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g , generaii-sasi di bidang ilmu ekonomi t e r j a d i , s e b i n g g a p a r a a b l i e k o n o m i d i n e g a r a -n e g a r a t e r s e b u t d e n g a n l e l u a s a m e m a s u k i s p e s i a l i s a s i y a n g b u k a n k e a b l i a n -n y a . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a k e b u t u h a n m e n d e s a k n e g a r a - n e g a r a t e r s e b u t d a l a m p e m e c a h a n s e c a r a m e n y e l u r u b d a n t e r p a d u . A k a n t e t a p i , d e n g a n m a -

E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1, March 1982

k i n m a j u n y a n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g , m a k a a r a b s p e s i a H s a s i -p u n a k a n t e r j a d i .

B a b i n i b a n y a m e n i n j a u s e b a g i a n k e c i l s a j a d a r i s u b - b a g i a n d a r i t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o . H a l i n i m e n u n j u k k a n a n t a r a l a i n s e b a g a i a k i b a t d a r i s p e ­s i a l i s a s i y a n g t a j a m t a d i . D a l a m p e n y a j i a n n y a , k a m i m e m b e r i k a n t a n g g a p a n m e n y e l u r u b a g a r d a p a t d i p a k a i s e c a r a p e r s p e k t i f .

P e r t a m a - t a m a k a m i m e n g a m b i l a s s u m s i , b a b w a p a r a p e m b a c a t e l a b m e m a b a m i a z a s d a s a r d a r i t e o r i e k o n o m i K l a s i k d a n " K e y n e s i a n - e c o n o -m i c s " . K e y n e s i a n e c o n o m i c s t i d a k b a n y a m e n c a k u p t e o r i - t e o r i e k o n o m i y a n g d i b a b a s d a l a m b u k u k l a s i k 7 7 i e General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money ( 1 9 3 6 ) t e t a p i j u g a p e r k e m b a n g a n - p e r k e m b a n g a n " N e o - K e y n e s i a n e c o n o m i c s " d a n " P o s t - K e y n e s i a n e c o n o m i c s " . P e r s y a r a t a n k e d u a , p e n g e t a -b u a n p e m b a c a t e n t a n g " W a l r a s i a n e q u i l i b r i u m " .

K a l a u a s u m s i k a m i t a d i t i d a k t e p a t , m a k a k a m i c a n t u m k a n d a l a m d a f ­t a r k e p u s t a k a a n b e b e r a p a s e l e k s i l i t e r a t u r d a r i c a b a n g - c a b a n g d a r i e k o n o m i -m a k r o u n t u k d i k e t a b u i .

K a m i m u l a i d e n g a n t u l i s a n y a n g s e k a r a n g t e l a b m e n j ^ s t a n d a r d d a l a m m e n i n j a u t e o r i E k o n o m i - M a k r o D i s e q u i l i b r i u m , y a i t u t u l i s a n - t u l i s a n p i o n i r o l e b P a t i n k i n ( t a b u n 1 9 6 5 , l i b a t d a f t a r p u s t a k a N o . 2 4 ) , C l o w e r ( 1 9 6 5 , 1 4 ) , B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n ( 1 9 7 1 d a n 1 9 7 6 , 9 d a n 1 0 ) , k e m u d i a n k e l a n j u t a n t e r a k b i r o l e b L e i j o n b u f v u d ( 1 9 6 6 , 2 0 ) d a n M a l i n v a u d ( 1 9 7 7 , 2 1 ) , a k b i m y a p e n i n j a u a n k e p u s t a k a a n o l e b A l l a n D r a z e n , " R e c e n t D e v e l o p m e n t s i n M a c r o -e c o n o m i c D i s e q u i b b r i u m T b e o r y " Econometrica, v o l u m e 4 8 , N o . 2 , M a r e t 1 9 8 0 ( 1 5 ) .

• A k b i m y a p e r l u d i c a t a t b a b w a a k b i r - a k b i r m i d u n i a k e p u s t a k a a n e k o ­n o m i t e l a b d i b a n j i r i d e n g a n b e r b a g a i s u r v e y t e n t a n g p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o , s e p e r t i m i s a l n y a R . J . G o r d o n , " O u t p u t F l u c t u a t i o n s a n d G r a d u a l P r i c e A d j u s t m e n t " , Journal of Economic Literature, v o l u m e 1 9 ( J u n i 1 9 8 1 ) . T u l i s a n t e r s e b u t m e n i n j a u s e c a r a a n a b t i s , a n t a r a l a i n , r e l e v a n t d e n g a n p e n y a j i a n i n i , t e n t a n g d u a h y p o t h e s e ( p a r a d i g m ) y a n g t e l a h m e n a r i k p e r h a t i a n d a l a m d a s a w a r s a t e r a k h i r . H y p o t h e s e p e r t a m a y a i t u " t h e n e w c l a s s i c a l e q u i l i b r i u m e c o n o m i c s " , b e r i s i a l a s a n - a l a s a n y a n g d i p a k a i o l e h p a r a s u p p h e r b a h a n m e n t a h d a n p a r a p e n g u s a h a dalam menetapkan harga ( p r i c e -s e t t i n g ) d a n f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e m u n g k i n k a n a d a n y a " a u c t i o n m a r k e t s " ( p a s a r b e r d a s a r l e l a n g ) b a g i k o m o d i t i t e r t e n t u . H y p o t h e s e k e d u a y a i t u " T h e o ­r i e s o f g r a d u a l p r i c e a d j u s t m e n t " b e r i s i p c n g a m a t a n t e n t a n g reaksi o l e h p a r a p e n g u s a h a d a n s u p p h e r t a d i d a l a m m e n e t a p k a n h a r g a terhadap perubahan-perubahan nominal dalam "aggregate demand". P e n i n j a u a n k e p u s t a k a a n t e r ­s e b u t b e r s i f a t s e l e k t i f ( k a r e n a b e g i t u b a n y a k n y a h t e r a t u r e ) d a n k o m p l i m e n p a d a s u r v e y - s u r v e y I a i n y a n g j u g a k i t a t i n j a u d i s i n i , y a i t u A . D r a z e n ( 1 9 8 0 ,

E K I , Vol. X X X , No. 1 , March 1982

15) dan survey lain yang tidak kita bicarakan di sini karena terbatasnya ruangan. Survey-survey lainnya misalnya oleh E . R . Weintraub, "The Micro-foundation of Macro-economics : A Critical Survey", J o u r n a l o f Economic L i t e r a t u r e , volume 15, No. 1 (Maret 1977), R . J . Barro, 'The Equilibrium Approach to Business Cycles", Working Paper (November 1979), University of Rochester, dan B .T . McCaUum, "Rational Expectations and Macroecono­mic Stabihzation Policy : An Overnew", J o u r n a l o f Money, Credit and B a n ­k i n g , volume 12, No. 4, Bagian I I , November 1980.

Tulisan pionir dalam teori Ekonomi-Makro Disequihbrium adalah Patinkin (1965, 24). Dialah yang pertama kah mampu menganalisa secara tuntas (fuUy work-out) suatu model yang dapat memisahkan antara model berdasar kekuatan-kekuatan penawaran dan permintaan dalam rangka kon-sepsional Walras dengan model dimana para peserta dalam kegiatan ekoncuni (economic agents) menghadapi hambatan-hambatan bersifat quantity (quan­tity constraints). Khususnya Patinkin menganalisa peserta ekonomi di pasaran tenaga kerja (labor market), dimana permintaan tenaga kerja deh pengusaha tergantiing pada harapan (expectation) berapa banyak pengusaha tersebut dapat menjual barangnya dengan laba. Dengan demikian terjadi suatu "in­voluntary unemployment", * yaitu adanya tenaga buruh yang tidak terjual karena pembeh memperhitungkan berapa besar komoditi akan dapat terjual di pasaran komoditi (goods market). Dengan kata lain, "involuntary un­employment" menunjukkan adanya "excess supply" di pasar tenaga kerja. Pada saat yang sama, ada keseimbangan (equilibrium) antara kekuatan pena­waran dan permintaan di pasar kcmiodoti. Sebahknya, "voluntary unemploy­ment" terjadi di mana ada keseimbangan (equilibrium) antara penawaran dan permintaui di pasar tenaga kerja dan ketidakseimbangan (disequUibrium) di pasar komoditi.

Anahsa Patinkin tersebut cU atas mem-fokuskan pada kegiatan^regiatan di sektor pet^usaha ( f i r m ) dan hanya melihat keadaan ekonomi makro pada waktu "(tepresskjn". Dan hasil analisanya, tampak sejuntas lalu memberi jawaban yang "familiar" yaitu kurangnya permintaan komoditi di pasar ko-mo^ti menyebabkan unemployment di pasar tenaga kerja. Padahal, sebenar­nya tidak semudsdi itu implikasinya dalsun meninjau dampak dari excess mpply di pasar komoditi terhadap permintaan tenaga kerja. Ternyata, hu-I m r ^ n fungsional antara "real wages" dan employment tidak l a g i secara langsung (tiebik lagi "one-to-one relationship") seperti dikemukakan oleh

4 MeHunit Patinkin "involuntary unemployment" adalah konsep relatif, karena secara abcolut, pengertian ketidakielaan ini tidak ada, sebab setiap orang sebenarnya ingin me­lakukan apa saja yang dia inginkan pada saat tertentu.

E K L Vol . X X X . No. 1 , March 1982

ekonomi klasik.^ Dengan demikian dalam keadaan "disequilibrium", di pasar tenaga keija unemployment dapat berdampingan bersama-sama dengan upah nyata (real wages) yang tidak beriebihan (non-excessive) dan pola dari upah nyata ini mungkin mengikuti pola kegiatan ekonomi makro (procylical pat­tern of real wages). Perlu menjadi perhatian pembaca di sini, bahwa Patinkin menunjukkan analisa yang menyesatkan (misleading) dalam mengungkap­kan implikasinya, yaitu dengan mengatakan bahwa keadaan real wages ada­lah akibat langsung dari sifat equilibrium di pasar komoditi atau di pasar tenaga kerja. Di bawah nanti kita tinjau lebih lanjut analisa disequilibrium yang diajukan oleh Barro dan Grossman (1971,9)

Marilah kita tinjau analisa Clower, (1965, 14) yang sebenamya sejajar dengan Patinkin. Clower memfokuskan pada kegiatan-kegiatan di sektor m-mah tangga (household), dan bukan kegiatan-kegiatan di sektor pengusaha (firm) seperti Patinkin. Walaupun pada prinsipnya, Clower melengkapi analisa Patinkin. Walaupun pada prinsipnya, Clower melengkapi analisa Patinkin dimana sekarang sektor rumah tangga, yang menjadi salah satu sektor utama dalam kehidupan ekonomi, ikut dlperhitungkan untuk menu tup suatu sistem ekonomi dengan tuntas.

Inti analisa Clower berdasarkan pada kebersamaan (simultaneity) da­lam pengambilan keputus^ antara keputusan menawarkan tenaga kerja dan keputusan untuk konsumsi dan menabung (saving).' Dikatakan bahwa ana­lisa Clower memakai teori ekonomi berdasarkan "dual-decision hypothesis". Hypothese mana berisi pengambilan keputusan antara dua pilihan secara simidtan, yaitu (bekerja dan makan dan/atau menabung). Dengan demikian pilihan yang dihadapi oleh sektor rumsdi tangga adalrii bukan mana yang ha­ms lata p3ih, tetapi berapa btmyak k i t a h a r m l a k u k a n kedua-duanya, walw-pun dengan pengorbanan bahwa kedua pilihan tersebut masingmiasing akan berkurang. Pertama-tsyma Clower memakai alat teori ekonomi yang Idasik, yaitu dengan "utility function",ch mana "argument"nya adalah tenaga kerja yang cMtawarkan, permintaan komoditi dan kebutuhan uang secara rifl (mo­ney real balances). Yang pokok di sini, yaitu bahwa "consumption func­tion" dan "saving function" dari sektor rumsdi tangga tergantung tidak hurya pada "mcome" tetapi juga tergantung sampai berapa banyak sektor rumah

5 Ekonomi k h a k beipendapat adanya ttubungan keb^ikan (invene idationsMp) » t a i a upah nyata (leai wages) dan employment, yaitu maldn lendah upah nyata, maka makki banyak permintaan akan tenaga kerja. 6 Clower (1965, 14) memberi contoh yang cocok dengan keadaan kehidupan kita se-hari-hari seb^ai toiaga aMi yang meiuwaikan jasa tenagakerja dan sekaligus idta harus memberi makan keluarga dan/atau kalau ada sisanya untuk menabung sebagai jamiBaa hari tua, lihat aower (14) hahunaa 237.

E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1 , March 1982 • T

t a n g g a d a p a t m e n j u a l j a s a t e n a g a k e r j a n y a . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a d a l a m m e m a k s i m u m k a n " u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n " n y a , d i a d i h a d a p k a n p a d a d u a m a c a m h a m b a t a n ( c o n s t r a i n t s ) . D u a m a c a m c o n s t r a i n t s d a l a m b u d g e t r u m a h t a n g g a b e r u p a ( 1 ) h a m b a t a n b e r u p a k e m a m p u a n d a p a t m e n j a l a n k a n p e n g e l u a r a n ( n o r m a l e x p e n d i t u r e s c o n s t r a i n t ) d a n ( 2 ) " L i q u i d i t y c o n s t r a i n t " , t e r u t a m a d a l a m e k o n o m i y a n g m e m a k a i u a n g s e b a g a i " M e d i u m o f e x c h a n g e " . H a n y a s a y a n g n y a , C l o w e r t i d a k s e p e n u h n y a m e n g a n a l i s a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a k e d u a h a m b a t a n t e r s e b u t , k h u s u s n y a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t d a n l i q u i d i t y c o n s t r a i n t . P e r k e m b a n g a n b a m d a l a m t e o r i E k o n o m i - M a k r o D i s e q u i i i b m m m e n e m s k a n k o n t r i b u s i C l o w e r i n i .

D a l a m p e r j a i a n a n k e h i d u p a n t e o r i e k o n o m i , s e o r a n g p e n u l i s p e r t a m a -t a m a m e n g a j u k a n a n a l i s a s a l a h s a t u b a g i a n s a j a ( s e p e r t i P a t i n k i n d i a t a s ) k e m u d i a n , p e n u l i s l a i n m e n g i s i k e k u r a n g a n n y a ( s e p e r t i C l o w e r d a l a m m e n a -n g a n i s e k t o r m m a h t a n g g a ) . S e l a n j u t n y a , p e n u l i s l a i n d a t a n g d e n g a n m e m ­b u a t s u a t u s y n t h e s e d a r i k e d u a p e n u l i s t e r s e b u t . D i s i n i , B a n o d a n G r o s s m a n ( 1 9 7 1 , 9 ) m e l a k u k a n y a n g s a m a d e n g a n m e n g k o m b i n a s i k a n s e c a r a " e l e g a n t " a n t a r a a n a l i s a P a t i n k i n d a n C l o w e r d e n g a n m e m a k a i " H i c k s i a n F i x e d - P r i c e M e t h o d " ' ' • u n t u k m e n g a n a l i s a i n t e r a k s i a n t a r a " q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t s " d a ­l a m p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a d a n p a s a r k o m o d i t i . D u a k a s u s d i b i c a r a k a n o l e h B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n , y a i t u k a s u s " g e n e r a l d i s e q u i l i b r i u m " y a n g m e n y a n g ­k u t k e l e b f l i a n p e n a w a r a n ( " e x c e s s s u p p l y " ) d a n k a s u s k e d u a t e n t a n g g e n e r a l d i s e q u i l i b r i u m m e n y a n g k u t k o n d i s i p a s a r k e l e b i b a n p e r m i n t a a n ( e x c e s s d e m a n d ) .

D a l a m k a s u s p e r t a m a , " g e n e r a l d i s e q u i l i b r i u m " d e n g a n k e l e b i b a n p e n a ­w a r a n m e n y a n g k u t k e a d a a n e k o n o m i m a k r o d a l a m k e a d a a n " d e p r e s s i o n " , B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n m u l a i d e n g a n a n a l i s a P a t i n k i n , y a i t u p e r m i n t a a n t e n a g a k e r j a d i h i t u n g b e r d a s a r k a n t i n g k a t ( l e v e l ) t e r t e n t u d a r i p e r m i n t a a n k o m o d i t i . U n t u k m e m e c a b k a n p e r s o a l a n i n i , d e n g a n s e n d i r i n y a k i t a h a r u s l e b i h d a h u l u m e n g h i t u n g p e r m i n t a a n k o m o d i t i . S e b a l i k n y a , a n a l i s a C l o w e r m e n g h e n d a k i p e n g h i t u n g a n p e r m i n t a a n t e n a g a k e r j a l e b i h d a h u l u , s e b e l u m k i t a d a p a t m e n g e t a h u i p e r m i n t a a n k o m o d i t i . K e m u d i a n o u t p u t d a n e m p l o y m e n t d a l a m k e a d a a n e k o n o m i m a k r o y a n g s e d a n g m e n g a l a m i " d e p r e s s i o n " .

D a l a m k a s u s k e d u a , B a n o d a n G r o s s m a n m e n g a n a l i s a l e b i h l a n j u t d e ­n g a n c a r a a n a l o g ! y a i t u m e n g u j i k e a d a a n e k o n o m i m a k r o d a l a m k e a d a a n

''tSiifsV; V i n - : A i A iivifff/ U;., e*» i : -i: . 7 Cara di mana "prices" dianggap sebagai parameter atau paling sedikit prices dianggap konstan dalam jangka pendek. Dalam jangka pendek, "prices" dapat dikatakan tidak bergerak, sehingga penyesuaian antara kekuatan penawaran dan permintaan berjalan melalui "quantity adjustment". Dalam keadaan demikian dapat ditanyakan bagai­mana macam "equilibrium" (keseimbangan) yang dapat dilihat dalam ekonomi di ting­kat makro.

68 E K I , Vol. X X X , No. 1, March 1982

" b o o m i n g " . K e a d a a n e k o n o m i M a k r o d i m a n a a d a k e l e b i b a n p e r m i n t a a n ( e x c e s s d e m a n d ) d i k e d u a p a s a r t e r s e b u t . B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n d e n g a n c a r a a n a l o g i t e r s e b u t m e n g - c l a i m a n a l i s a k e a d a a n e k o n o m i d a l a m d e p r e s i d a p a t l a n g s u n g d i t e r a p k a n u n t u k m e n g a n a l i s a k e a d a a n e k o n o m i y a n g s e d a n g s u b u r .

D e n g a n k e d u a k a s u s t e r s e b u t , B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a s a n y a d e n g a n m e m b u a t a s u m s i b a h w a u p a h b u r u h s e c a r a n o m i n a l d a n h a r g a k o m o d i t i k o n s t a n , m a k a d a p a t d i t e n t u k a n d a l a m p a s a r m a n a ( p a ­s a r t e n a g a k e r j a a t a u p a s a r k o m o d i t i ) h a m b a t a n " q u a n t i t y " ( q u a n t i t y c o n ­s t r a i n t ) a k a n t e r j a d i .

W a l a u p u n u r a i a n B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n i n i d a p a t d i a n g g a p l e b i h m e ­m u a s k a n d a l a m m e n j e l a s k a n i n t e r a k s i a n t a r p a s a r d a r i p a d a a n a l i s a d i s e k i t a r t a h u n 1 9 5 0 - a n d a n 1 9 6 0 - a n , a k a n t e t a p i m e r e k a b e l u m d a p a t m e n j a w a b p e r t a n y a a n p o k o k n y a : y a i t u , m e n g a p a " p r i c e s " t i d a k b e r u b a h p a d a w a k t u a d a k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t .

D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n m a l a h a n m e n i m b u l k a n b a n y a k p e r t a n y a a n d a r i p a d a m e n j a w a b p e r t a n y a a n p o k o k n y a . T a m p a k n y a u s a h a B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n s e p e r t i k e m b a l i k e a l a m K e y n e s , d i m a n a K e y n e s m e m a ­k a i a s u m s i k e k e t a t a n u p a h ( r i g i d i t y ) u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n a d a n y a " u n e m p l o y ­m e n t e q u i l i b r i u m " . * M a l a h a n , k a r a k t e r i s t i k a n a l i s a B a r r o d a n G r o s s m a n i n i a k a n m e n j a d i l e b i h j e l a s j i k a k i t a m e n a m b a h d a l a m m o d e l - n y a s e o r a n g p e l e l a n g ( a u c t i o n e e r ) y a n g b e r t u g a s m e n e n t u k a n h a r g a ( " p r i c e " ) . A u c t i o n e e r m a n a b e r p e r a n m e n e n t u k a n g e r a k d a r i u p a h b u r u h d a n h a r g a k o m o d i t i s e ­c a r a d i n a m i s s e h i n g g a a k b i m y a k i t a m e n d a p a t k a n m o d e l b e r d a s a r " W a l r a ­s i a n f u l l e m p l o y m e n t e q u i l i b r i u m " .

S e p e r t i d i k e t a h u i , b e g i t u a d a s u a t u k e m a j u a n p e m i k i r a n , m a k a p e m i -k i r l a i n a k a n m e n a n g g a p i d a n m e n y e m p u m a k a n n y a . D e m i k i a n p u l a L e i j o n ­h u f v u d ( 1 9 6 6 , 2 0 ) , b e k a s m a h a s i s w a C l o w e r , m e n a n g g a p i p e n g e r t i a n C l o w e r t e n t a n g " N o t i o n a l W a l r a s i a n D e m a n d " , ' b a h w a d a l a m k e n y a t a a r m y a p e n y e ­s u a i a n h a r g a ( p r i c e a d j u s t m e n t ) t i d a k s a m a s e k a l i c e p a t , m a l a h a n L e i j o n h u f ­v u d b e r p e n d a p a t b a h w a " q u a n t i t i t e s " l e b i h c e p a t m e n y e s u a i k a n d a r i p a d a h a r g a . H a l i n i d a p a t d i j e l a s k a n k a r e n a d u a p e r s o a l a n y a i t u p e r s o a l a n t i d a k l e n g k a p n y a i n f o r m a s i b a g i p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i d a n a d a n y a h a m b a t a n U k w i -d i t a s ( b q u i d i t y c o n s t r a i n t ) y a n g d i h a d a p i o l e h p e l a k u t e r s e b u t . M e n g e n a i i n f o r m a s i , s e b e n a m y a " p r i c e s y s t e m " a d a l a h s u a t u m e k a n i s m e u n t u k m e n -t r a n s f e r i n f o r m a s i d a r i p e l a k u e k o n o m i y a n g s a t u k e p a d a y a n g l a i n s e h i n g g a

8 Lihat uraian Patinkin di atas tentang "involuntary unemployment". 9 Artinya teori ekonomi permintaan menurut Walras dimana teori tersebut hanya

berlaku jikalau "prices" bergerak dengan sangat cepat infinitely fast), dalam menye­suaikan ketidakseimbangan antara penawaran dan permintaan.

E K I , Vol. X X X , No. 1 , March 1982 69

p e l a k u - p e l a k u t e r s e b u t m a s i n g ^ n a s i n g d a p a t m e n g a m b i l k e p u t u s a n t e n t a n g k e g i a t a n - k e g i a t a n y a n g m e n y a n g k u t p r o d u k s i , p e r d a g a n g a n d a n k o n s u m s i . M a l a h a n , s e p e r t i H a y e k ' " t e l a h m e n g e m u k a k a n b e b e r a p a t a h u n y a n g l a l u b a h w a s a n y a s a l a h s a t u a s p e k y a n g t e r p e n t i n g d a r i " p r i c e s y s t e m " a d a l a h " t h e c o n o m y o f k n o w l e d g e " . M a k s u d n y a , b a h w a d e n g a n s i s t i m h a r g a i n i p a r a p e l a k u m e m a k a i " p r i c e " s e b a g a i a l a t y a n g m e n g a n d u n g s e m u a i n f o r m a s i y a n g s a n g a t d i p e r l u k a n u n t u k p e n g a m b i l a n k e p u t u s a n . K a l a u s i s t i m h a r g a i n i c e p a t m e r e f l e k s i k a n k e a d a a n y a n g s e b e n a r n y a , m a k a " p r i c e s y s t e m " s a n g a t e f f i s s i e n . H a n y a s a j a t i d a k s e m u a p r i c e s b e r t i n d a k s e b a g a i a l a t p e n y a m b u n g i n f o r m a s i y a n g t e p a t d i p e r l u k a n . D a l a m k e n y a t a a n n y a , " p r i c e s " t i d a k s e l a l u t e p a t d a n i n f o r m a s i y a n g d i p e r l u k a n t i d a k s e l a l u d i p e r o l e h d e n g a n c e p a t . P e n g u m p u l a n i n f o r m a s i m e m e r l u k a n b i a y a . O l e h k a r e n a i t u , s e p e r t i A l c h i a n ( J u n e 1 9 6 9 ) m e m b e r i c o n t o h b a h w a u n e m p l o y m e n t t e r j a d i k a r e n a p a r a p e -n a w a r d a n p e m i n t a t e n a g a k e r j a s a l i n g m e n c a r i i n f o r m a s i t e n t a n g k e c o c o k a n h a r g a d a n m a c a m t e n a g a y a n g d i p e r l u k a n .

H a m b a t a n l i k w i d i t a s y a n g d i k e m u k a k a n o l e h L e i j o n h u f v u d , s e b a g a i p e n j e l a s a n m e n g a p a " q u a n t i t y a d j u s t m e n t " l e b i h c e p a t d a r i p a d a p e n y e s u a i a n h a r g a ( p r i c e a d j u s t m e n t ) a d a l a h b e r d a s a r k e t e r a n g a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t . D a l a m k e h i d u p a n s e h a r i - h a r i , p e k e r j a m e n c a r i p e k e r j a a n u n t u k m e m p e r o l e h u a n g d a n b u k a n s e c a r a l a n g s u n g u n t u k m e n c a r i k o m o d i t i . D e n g a n k a t a l a i n , p e r ­m i n t a a n k o m o d i t i o l e h p e k e r j a t i d a k d i b e r i t a h u k a n k e p a d a p r o d u s e n k o m o ­d i t i , s e h i n g g a p r o d u s e n k o m o d i t i t i d a k d a p a t s e g e r a m e n a w a r k a n p e k e r j a a n k e p a d a p e k e r j a t e r s e b u t . P a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a m e n g a l a m i " e x c e s s s u p p l y " p a d a t i n g k a t u p a h n y a t a y a n g d a p a t m e m e c a h k a n p e r s o a l a n e q u i l i b r i u m ( W a l r a s i a n e q u i l i b r i u m ) . D i s i n i a d a s u a t u k e t i d a k s e r a s i a n a n t a r a k e i n g i n a n y a n g s a m a d a r i b e r b a g a i p i h a k ( " l a c k o f m u t u a l c o i n c i d e n c e " ) . O l e h k a r e n a i t u d i p e r l u ­k a n u a n g s e b a g a i a l a t p e m b a y a r a n y a n g m e n u n j u k k a n k e i n g i n a n y a n g s a m a d a r i b e r b a g a i p i h a k t a d i .

O l e h k a r e n a i t u , L e i j o n h u f v u d m e n i t i k b e r a t k a n p e n t i n g n y a struktur transaksi d a n sifat uang daiam penukaran (perdagangan). B a n y a k a r g u m e n t a s i L e i j o n h u f v u d y a n g s a n g a t m e n a r i k , t e t a p i k a l a u k i t a k a j i l e b i h l a n j u t t e r n y a t a a r g u m e n t a s i k o n s e p L e i j o n h u f v u d t i d a k o p e r a s i o n i l . D a n k i t a t e r b e n t u r s e ­k a l i l a g ! d e n g a n j a w a b a n y a n g k a b u r a t a s p e r t a n y a a n m e n g a p a " p r i c e s " t i d a k b e r g e r a k d e n g a n c e p a t d a l a m m e n g k l i r i n g k a n k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n a n t a r p a ­s a r . I n i l a h p h e n o m e n a y a n g s e r i n g d i k e n a l d a l a m k e p u s t a k a a n t e o r i e k o n o m i m a k r o s e b a g a i " p e r s i s t e n c e d i s e q u i l i b r i u m " ( k e a d a a n d i s e q u i l i b r i u m t e r u s m e n e r u s ) .

10 F . A . Havek, "The Use of Knowledge in Sodeiy" A m e r i c a n Economic Review, Sep­tember 1945, halaman 526 - 527.

70 E K I , Vol. X X X , No. 1, March 1982

S e b a g a i k e s i m p u l a n u r a i a n s i n g k a t p e r k e m b a n g a n k e p u s t a k a a n s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 6 5 , s a m p a i d e n g a n a w a l d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 - a n , k i t a d a p a t m e n p t a k a n b a h w a k e m a j u a n p e m i k i r a n b e r j a l a n l a m b a t d a l a m m e n j e l a s k a n m e n p p a p r i c e s t i d a k b e r g e r a k d e n g a n c e p a t s e b a g a i k l i r i n g k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n . P e n j e l a s a n m e n g a p a " q u a n t i t y a d j u s t m e n t " b e r j a l a n l e b i h c e p a t d a r i p a d a " p r i c e a d j u s t ­m e n t " t a m p a k n y a l e b i h m e m u a s k a n . F a k t o r - f a k t o r u t a m a n y a a d a l a h i n f o r ­m a s i d a n k e t i d a k c o c o k a n k e i n g i n a n y a n g s a m a a n t a r a p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i . N a m u n d e m i k i a n p e n j e l a s a n m e n g e n a i s e b a b - s e b a b p o k o k d a r i u n e m p l o y ­m e n t ( y a n g p a d a h a k e k a t n y a " q u a n t i t y a d j u s t m e n t " ) t i d a k m e n g a l a m i k e ­m a j u a n p e m i k i r a n . P e m i k i r a n k e a r a h s e b a b - s e b a b u n e m p l o y m e n t m a s i h t e r ­b e n t u r p a d a m a s a l a h y a n g m e n d o r o n g K e y n e s m e n g a m b i l a s s u m s i a d a n y a k e k e t a t a n u p a h ( w a g e r i g i d i t y ) .

P a d a t a r a f p e m i k i r a n a w a l d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 - a n , p e r s o a l a n s e b a b p o k o k u n e m p l o y m e n t m a s i h d a l a m b e n t u k p e r t a n y a a n , y a i t u a p a k a h u n e m p l o y m e n t d i p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a d a n e q u i l i b r i u m d i p a s a r k o m o d i t i m e n g h e n d a k i k e ­h a r u s a n b a h w a u p a h a d a l a h k e t a t d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k a t a u u p a h d i a n g g a p s e b a g a i f a k t o r e k s t e r n , k a r e n a i t u b e r s i f a t k e t a t . P e r t a n y a a n t e r a k h i r m a s i h t e r b u k a u n t u k p e n e l i t i a n d a l a m d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 - a n d a n a w a l d a s a w a r s a 1 9 8 0 -a n , b a h w a a p a k a h d e n g a n m e n g h a p u s k a n a s u m s i k e k e t a t a n u p a h a k a n m e m -b a w a k i t a k e e q u i l i b r i u m y a n g t u n t a s d i s e m u a p a s a r .

D a l a m B a b I I I b e r i k u t , k a m i m e n i n j a u k e m a j u a n - k e m a j u a n p e m i k i r a n d a s a w a r s a k e m a r i n d a n b e b e r a p a u s a h a p e m i k i r a n d a l a m d a s a w a r s a 1 9 8 0 -a n , y a i t u a p a y a n g s e k a r a n g d i k e n a l s e b a g a i t e o r i E k o n o m i - M a k r o D i s e q u i l i b ­r i u m a t a u s e c a r a s i n g k a t A n a l i s a D i s e q u i l i b r i u m .

ni. A n a l i s a D i s e q u i l i b r i u m

S e p e r t i t e l a h d i s e b u t d a l a m B a b P e n d a h u l u a n , a n a l i s a d i s e q u i l i b r i u m pa­da prinsipnya m a s i h b e r d a s a r p a d a a n a l i s a e q u i l i b r i u m u m u m ( g e n e r a l e q u i ­l i b r i u m ) . " A n a l i s a e q u i l i b r i u m a d a l a h k e r a n g k a a n a l i s a u n t u k m e m p e r ­o l e h h a s i l t e r a k h i r d a r i p r o s e s p e n y e s u a i a n a n t a r a k e k u a t a n p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n a n t a r p a s a r t a n p a m e n g h i r a u k a n p r o s e s n y a i t u s e n d i r i . B e b e r a p a

11 Secara tekhnis, disebut analisa Walrasian equilbrium yang memiliki asumsi dan per­syaratan tekhnis bahwa adanya "auctioneer"; auctioneer mana mengumumkan "prices" pada permulaan sebelum para pelaku ekonomi menyesuaikan masingmiasing permintaan "Tatoimement" atau process mencari-cari (groping) harga equilibrium; dan setelah mem­peroleh harga equilibrium, kemudian auctioneer mengumumkan kembali pada permula­an periode berikutnya, demikian seterusnya. l ihat selanjutnya "Walras' Theory of Ta­toimement" dalam Patinkin<1965, 24) halaman 531 - 540.

E H , Vol . X X X , No. 1 , March 1982 71

p e r t u l i s b e r p e n d a p a t b a h w a a n a l i s a e q u i l i b r i u m a d a l a h t e r l a l u a b s t r a k , k a r e n a p e r s y a r a t a n n y a t i d a k d a p a t k i t a l i h a t d a l a m k e h i d u p a n s e h a r i - h a r i . O l e h k a r e n a i t u b e b e r a p a p e n u l i s l e b i h t e r t a r i k m e m a k a i a n a l i s a d i s e q u i l i b r u m . P e r b e d a a n p e n d a p a t d a r i p e m a k a i a n a n a l i s a i n i d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a s a l a h p e ­n g e r t i a n t e n t a n g a p a k a h a n a l i s a " g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m " i t u s e b e n a r n y a ? P a r a a k h l i e k o n o m i t e l a h b i a s a t e r l a t i h d a l a m c a r a b e r f i k i m y a s e o l a h - o l a h k o n s e p e q u i l i b r i u m m e n g a n d u n g a r t i b a h w a d a l a m k e a d a a n e q u i l i b r i u m m a k a k e ­k u a t a n p e n a w a r a n s a m a k u a t n y a d e n g a n k e k u a t a n p e r m i n t a a n . A n a l i s a e q u i l i b r i u m s e b a g a i k o n s e p a b s t r a k t i d a k m e m p u n y a i k e w a j i b a n l o g i k a ( l o g i c a l o b l i g a t i o n ) u n t u k m e n g a n g g a p a d a n y a " i d e n t i t y " ( p e r s a m a a n ) a n t a r a p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n . " Y a n g p e r l u d i t e k a n k a n d i s i n i a d a l a h s o a l m e t h o d o l o g i , y a i t u apakah pemakaian analisa Disequilibrium adalah cara ber-fikir yang lebih effisien daripada analisa equilibrium. J a d i j i k a k i t a m e m i l i h a n a l i s a d i s e q u i l i b r i u m , b e r a r t i k i t a h a r u s d a p a t m e m f o r m u l i r d i n a m i k a p r o s e s p e n y e s u a i a n a n t a r a b e r b a g a i v a r i a b l e y a n g a k a n b e r g e r a k s e c a r a s i m u l t a n m e n u j u s u a t u k e s e i m b a n g a n p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n m e n u r u t p e r a t u r a n p e r m a i n a n t e r t e n t u .

D e n g a n u r a i a n s i n g k a t d i a t a s , p e m b a c a d i h a r a p k a n d a p a t m e l i h a t p e r ­b e d a a n d a s a m y a a n t a r a k e d u a a n a l i s a d a n b a h w a s a n y a a n a l i s a d i s e q u i l i b r i u m d i p a k a i u n t u k m e n g k a j i l e b i h l a n j u t v a r i a b l e m a n a ( q u a n t i t y a t a u p r i c e s ) y a n g a k a n m e n j a d i f a k t o r p e n y e s u a i ( a d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r ) d a l a m k e a d a a n k e -t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n a n t a r a f a k t o r p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n .

P e r k e m b a n g a n a k h i r - a k h i r i n i d a l a m t h e o r i e k o n o m i m a k r o d i s e q u i l i b ­r i u m ' ' d a p a t d i s a j i k a n d i s i n i b e b e r a p a m a s a l a h p o k o k , y a i t u k a r a k t e r i s t i k d a s a r d a r i m o d e l e k o n o m i b e r s e n d i " N o n W a l r a s i a n " ( a t a u D i s e q u i l i b r i u m ) , l o g i k a n y a t a n g g a p a n p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i , d a n p e r a n a n u a n g d a l a m s t m k t u r l a l u l i n t a s p e n u k a r a n .

Karakteristik Dasar Model Ekonomi bersendi "Non-Walrasian"

S e p e r t i t e l a h d i k e m u k a k a n d a l a m p e n i n j a u a n k e p u s t a k a a n d a l a m B a b I I d i a t a s , m a s a l a h y a n g b e l u m d a p a t t e r p e c a h k a n a d a l a h b a g a i m a n a m e n c a p a i e q u i l i b r i u m y a n g t u n t a s d e n g a n m e l a l u i " q u a n t i t y a d j u s t m e n t " .

P a d a d a s a m y a a d a d u a m a c a m m o d e l e k o n o m i b e r s e n d i k a n " N o n -W a l r a s i a n " . P e r t a m a , m o d e l e k o n o m i y a n g b e r d a s a r fixed-price. A r t i n y a , d e ­n g a n m e m e g a n g v a r i a b l e " p r i c e s " k o n s t a n d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k , k e m u d i a n

12 Lihat Malinvaud (1977, 21) halaman 5. 13 Sumher utama pembicaraan beberapa masalab ini adalab Allan Drazen (1980, 15), karena terbatasnya kepustakaan yang ada pada penuUs pada waktu menyiapkan kertas kerja ini.

72 E K I , Vol. X X X , No. 1, March 1982

d i c a r i " q u a n t i t i e s a d j u s t m e n t " d e n g a n c a r a " t a t o n n e m e n t " s e p e r t i h a l n y a d a l a m " W a l r a s i a n m o d e l " . B e d a n y a , d a l a m N o n - W a l r a s i a n b u k a n " t a t o n n e ­m e n t " d a l a m " p r i c e s " y a n g k i t a p e c a h k a n , m e l a i n k a n " t a t o n n e m e n t " d a l a m q u a n t i t i e s . D a l a m h a l i n i p e l a k u e k o n o m i m e n y a t a k a n p e r m i n t a a n n y a a t a u t e p a t n y a " c o n s t r a i n e d e x c e s s d e m a n d " a t a s s u a t u k o m o d i t i y a n g d a p a t m e ­m a k s i m u m k a n p r e f e i e n s i n y a s u b y e k a t a s " c o n s t r a i n t " t e r h a d a p p e r m i n t a -a n - p e r m i n t a a n k o m o d i t i d i s e l u r u h m a r k e t , t e r m a s u k " c o n s t r a i n t " t e r h a d a p p e r m i n t a a n k o m o d i t i y a n g d i h a d a p i . K e m u d i a n d i p a s a r k o m o d i t i e q u i l i b r i u m t e r c a p a i d a n t r a n s a k s i p e r d a g a n g a n k o m o d i t i m e n c a p a i k l i r i n g y a n g t u n t a s , j i k a l a u " v o l u n t a r y " e x c h a n g e t e r j a d i . A r g u m e n t a s i p e n c a p a i a n e q u i l i b r i u m d e m i l d a n d i j a l a n k a n d e n g a n m e m a k a i " f i x e d p o i n t t h e o r e m " ( d i k e n a l s e b a g a i B r o w e r ' s F i x e d P o i n t t h e o r e m d i k e p u s t a k a a n e k o n o m i m a t e m a t i k a ) . P a d a d a s a r n y a " f i x e d p o i n t t h e o r e m " m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a a d a s a t u ' t i t i k y a n g d a p a t d i t r a n s f o r m k e d a l a m t i t i k i t u s e n d i r i . D a n t i t i k i t u d i s e b u t e q u i l i b r i u n i a t a u D r e z e e q u i l i b r i u m m e n u r u t p e n e m u n y a . "

P e r s o a l a n t e k h n i s y a n g t i m b u l d a l a m " f i x e d p r i c e " t e r s e b u t a d a l a h • a d a n y a b a n y a k e q u i l i b r i u m ( m a n y e q u i l i b r i a ) t e r g a n t u n g " f i x e d p r i c e " a t a u

" f i x e d p o i n t " m a n a y a n g d i p a k a i d a n t e r g a n t u n g " r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " y a n g a k a n d i p a k a i . P e r s o a l a n i n i d i k e n a l s e b a g a i p e r s o a l a n s p e s i f i k a s i . Y a i t u , a p a ­k a h k i t a m a u m e m f o k u s k a n p e r h a t i a n k i t a p a d a " a g r e g a t e c o n s t r a i n t " , s e ­h i n g g a p e l a k u e k o n o m i m a n a y a n g a k a n m e n g h a d a p i r a t i o n i n g a d a l a h s o a l k e d u a . A t a u a d a n y a e q u i l i b r i u m d e n g a n " a g r e g a t e c o n s t r a i n t " t a d i h a n y a t e r g a n t u n g p a d a " s p e c i f i c r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " .

P e r s o a l a n t e k h n i s l a i n d a r i m o d e l i n i a d a l a h a s s u m s i b a h w a p e l a k u e k o ­n o m i m e n y a t a k a n p e r m i n t a a n u n t u k m e m a k s i m u m k a n p r e f e r e n s i b e r d a s a r c o n s t r a i n t y a n g d i a t a n g g a p i . M o d e l i n i t i d a k m e n g g a m b a r k a n s u a t u p e r t u ­k a r a n i n f o r m a s i t e n t a n g b e s a m y a " r a t i o n i n g " y a n g o l e h p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i b e n a r - b e n a r d i a l a m i . D i s i n i p e l a k u - p e l a k u e k o n o m i d i b a t a s i d a l a m m e ­n y a m p a i k a n b e s a m y a s i g n a l y a n g m e r e k a i n g i n s a m p a i k a n k e p a d a p e l a k u -p e l a k u e k o n o m i l a i n n y a .

M o d e l y a n g k e d u a , b e r d a s a r k a n B a r r o - G o s s m a n . D i s i n i B e n a s s y ( 1 9 7 5 , 1 1 ) m e m b u a t a s s u m s i b a h w a p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i d a l a m s u a t u p a s a r d a p a t m e n g a j u k a n p e r m i n t a a n d e n g a n m e l a n g g a r c o n s t r a i n t s - n y a s e n d i r i . D e n g a n k a t a l a i n p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i d a l a m m e n g a j u k a n " e f f e c t i v e d e m a n d " - n y a d i a m e m p e r h i t u n g k a n " c o n s t r a i n t " y a n g d i t a n g g a p i d i p a s a r l a i n , t e t a p i m e n g -a b a i k a n " c o n s t r a i n t s " d i p a s a r k o m o d i t i d i m a n a d i a m e n g a j u k a n p e r m i n t a a n y a n g e f f e k t i f . T e n t u s a j a i n i b e r d a s a r s u a t u a s s u m s i b a h w a p a r a p e l a k u e k o -

14 Uhat J . Dreze, "Existence of An Equilibrium Under Price Rigidity and Quantity Rationing", I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic Review, volume 16 (1975), halaman 301 - 320.

E K I , Vol. X X X , No. 1, March 1982 73

n o m i y a n g k i t a b i c a r a k a n m e m i l i k i i n f o r m a s i l e n g k a p t e n t a n g t a n g g a p a n p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i d i p a s a r l a i n p a d a w a k t u m e r e k a m e n g a j u k a n p e r m i n t a a n y a n g e f f e k t i f .

P e r s a m a a n p o k o k a n t a r a m o d e l k e d u a d a n p e r t a m a a d a l a h p e n e n t u a n e q u i l i b r i u m d i t e n t u k a n d e n g a n m e t h o d o l o g i " f i x e d p o i n t t h e o r e m " , h a n y a d a l a m m o d e l k e d u a , B e n a s s y e q u i l i b r i u m ( d i s e b u t d e m i k i a n k a r e n a m o d e l k e d u a i n i d i b u a t o l e h B e n a s s y ) t i d a k m e m e r l u k a n s u a t u i d e n t i t y a n t a r a t r a d e n y a t a d e n g a n p e r m i n t a a n e f e k t i f ( e f f e c t i v e d e m a n d ) , t e t a p i p e r m i n t a a n e f e k t i f i t u s e n d i r i y a n g d i - r e p r o d u c e . ' '

D i s i n i s p e s i f i k a s i t e n t a n g " r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " y a n g n y a t a d a n y a n g d i t a n g g a p i o l e h p e l a k u e k o n o m i l e b i h p e n t i n g d a r i p a i J a d a l a m m o d e l p e r ­t a m a .

D a l a m k e p u s t a k a a n a d a b e r b a g a i m a c a m " r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " . " R a t i o ­n i n g S c h e m e " y a n g d a p a t d i m a n i p u l a s i m e n g g a m b a r k a n s c h e m e d i m a n a k e ­g i a t a n ( a t a u t r a n s a k s i ) y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h s e o r a n g p e l a k u e k o n o m i t e r g a n ­t u n g p a d a ( a t a u f u n g s i d a r i ) " e x c e s s d e m a n d " d a r i p e l a k u e k o n o m i t e r s e b u t . M a k i n n a i k " e x c e s s d e m a n d " - n y a , m a l d n b e s a r k e g i a t a n n y a . S e c a r a t e k n i s d i ­k a t a k a n , " a n i n c r e a s i n g f u n c t i o n " . " R a t i o n i n g S c h e m e " y a n g t i d a k d a p a t d i m a n i p u l a s i k a n , y a i t u b a h w a t i d a k a d a h u b u n g a n f u n g s i o n i l a n t a r a k e g i a t a n a t a u t r a n s a k s i d a r i s e o r a n g p e l a k u e k o n o m i d e n g a n " e f f e c t i v e d e m a n d " y a n g p e l a k u t e r s e b u t k e m u k a k a n , k e c u a l i h u b u n g a n s e c a r a t i d a k l a n g s u n g m e l e w a t i " a g r e g a t e e f f e c t i v e d e m a n d " .

P e n g e t r a p a n m o d e l k e d u a i n i , a n t a r a l a i n , o l e h M a l i n v a u d ( 1 9 7 7 , 2 1 ) , d i m a n a d i a m e n a n y a k a n b a h w a d a l a m j a n g k a p e n d e k , d i m a n a " p r i c e s " a d a l a h k o n s t a n , m a c a m e q u i l i b r i u m a p a y a n g d a p a t d i p e r o l e h . D e n g a n m o ­d e l d i m a n a h a n y a a d a s a t u m a c a m k o m o d i t i , M a l i n v a u d ' ' m e m b a g i d a l a m m a n g g e o m e t r i " w a g e p r i c e " m e n j a d i t i g a b a g i a n : 1 . C l a s s i c a l u n e m p l o y ­m e n t , 2 . K e y n e s i a n u n e m p l o y m e n t d a n 3 . r e p r e s s e d i n f l a t i o n ( l i h a t g a m b a r b e r i k u t ) .

Wage Rale . . . . • H K • - . .. .

W= Walrasian Eq.jilibrium

Price of goorl

15 Seperti dicatat di atas dalam fixed point theorem, adalah satu titik yang ditransform menjadi titik itu sendiri; titik dalam hal ini adalah effective demand. 16 Lihat Malinvaud (1977, 21), halaman 85.

74 E K I , Vol. X X X , No. 1, March 1982

D a l a m g a m b a r t e r s e b u t , M a l i n v a u d m e n j e l a s k a n a d a n y a " K e n y e s i a n u n e m p l o y m e n t " t e r j a d i j i k a l a u h a r g a k o m o d i t i r e l a t i f l e b i h t i n g g i d a r i p a d a n i l a i u a n g d i t a n g a n k o n s u m e n , d e n g a n a s u m s i p e n g e l u a r a n p e m e r i n t a h k o n s t a n . K a s u s " K e y n e s i a n u n e m p l o y m e n t " i n i , d a n j u g a k a s u s " c l a s i c a l u n e m p l o y m e n t " d a n " r e p r e s s e d i n f l a t i o n " , d a p a t l e b i h m u d a h d i m e n g e r t i d e n g a n t a b e l b e r i k u t :

Pasar Komoditi

Pembeli Penjual

P a s a r T e n a g a K e r j a

P e m b e l i " K e y n e s i a n

U n e m p l o y m e n t " " C l a s s i c a l

U n e m p l o y m e n t " P a s a r T e n a g a K e r j a

P e n j u a l X " R e p r e s s e d I n f l a t i o n "

S u m b e r : M a l i n v a u d ( 1 9 7 7 , 2 1 ) , g a m b a r 3 , h a l a m a n 3 1 .

K a s u s " K e y n e s i a n u n e m p l o y m e n t " t e r j a d i k a r e n a " s u p p l i e s " d i j a t a h d a l a m k e d u a p a s a r , t e t a p i t e r j a d i u n e m p l o y m e n t k a r e n a k u r a n g n y a " e f f e c t i v e d e m a n d " d i p a s a r k o m o d i t i s e h i n g g a p e n g u s a h a t i d a k m e m p r o d u k s i d a n k o n -s e k w e n s i n y a k u r a n g n y a p e r m i n t a a n t e n a g a k e r j a .

K a s u s " c l a s s i c a l u n e m p l o y m e n t " t e r j a d i j i k a l a u " r e a l w a g e s b e g i t u t i n g g i s e h i n g g a p e n g u s a h a t i d a k b i s a m e m b u a t u n t u n g k a r e n a p r o f i t m a r g i n -n y a r e n d a h s e h i n g g a t i d a k b i s a m e m p e k e r j a k a n t e n a g a b u r u h . L i h a t k u r v e S K d i m a n a u n e m p l o y m e n t t e r j a d i k a r e n a " r i g i d n o m i n a l w a g e " b e g i t u t i n g g i , ' ' w a l a u p u n h a r g a k o m o d i t i m e n y e s u a i k a n s e h i n g g a a d a k e s e i m b a n g a n a n t a r a p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n d i p a s a r k o m o d i t i , ( l i h a t T a b e l d i a t a s ) .

K a s u s " r e p r e s s e d i n f l a t i o n " t e r j a d i d i m a n a t e r d a p a t e x c e s s d e m a n d d i k e d u a p a s a r t e r s e b u t ( l i h a t t a b e l ) . D a l a m g a m b a r d i a t a s , " r e p r e s s e d i n f l a ­t i o n " ' ' t e r j a d i d i m a n a b a i k u p a h b u r u h m a u p u n h a r g a k o m o d i t i b e g i t u r e n d a h s e h i n g g a d a y a b e l i u a n g d i t a n g a n k o n s u m e n b e g i t u t i n g g i , t e t a p i k a ­l a u k o n s u m e n l e b i h s u k a s a n t a i d a r i p a d a b e l i k o m o d i t i , s e d a n g k a n d i p a s a r k o m o d i t i , b a r a n g - b a r a n g t e l a h d i b e l i s e l u r u b n y a o l e h P e m e r i n t a h .

17 Malinvaud mencatat di sinilah Keynes dalam bukunya memikiikan soal "unemploy­ment" ini. 18 Mungkin hal ini perlu dipikiikan dalam hubungannya dengan keadaan ekonomi In­donesia dewasa ini.

E K I , V o l X X X , No. 1, March 1982 11

D a l a m g a m b a r d i a t a s , d i m a n a l ^ g a d o m a i n s a l i n g b e r t e m u m e m b e r i ­k a n k o m b i n a s i y a n g u n i k a n t a r a " w a g e - p r i c e " d a n m e m b e r i k a n p e m e c a h a n W a l r a s i a n s e c a r a t u n t a s ( a f u l l W a l r a s i a n S o l u t i o n ) .

T e n t u s a j a b a n y a k k r i t i k t e r h a d a p p e n y a j i a n t e r s e b u t a n t a r a l a i n , d i ­k a t a k a n o l e h H i l d e n b r a n d d a n H i d e n b r a n d ' ' b a h w a p e m b a g i a n k e t i g a d o ­m a i n t e r s e b u t t i d a k t e p a t , k a r e n a h u b u n g a n y a n g e k s a k a n t a r a t i g a d a e r a h t e r g a n t u n g p a d a b e n t u k k u r v e p e r m i n t a a n . K r i t i k l a i n t e r h a d a p M a l i n v a u d , y a i t u b a h w a h a s i l p e m b a g i a n k e t i g a d o m a i n s a n g a t s e n s i t i f p a d a a s u m s i t e n ­t a n g " e x p e c t a t i o n " .

B a r u - b a r u i n i M a l i n v a u d ( 1 9 8 0 , 2 2 ) m e n g i s i k e k u r a n g a n - k e k u r a n g a n d a l a m b u k u n y a ( 1 9 7 7 , 2 1 ) t e r u t a m a d a l a m b u k u n y a t e r d a h u l u t i d a k d i s e b u t -s e b u t t e n t a n g k e m u n g k i n a n a d a n y a e v o l u s i y a n g l a m b a t d a l a m u p a h b u r u h d a n h a r g a k o m o d i t i p a d a w a k t u a d a " e x c e s s s u p p l y " a t a u " e x c e s s d e m a n d " . D a l a m b u k u y a n g t e r a k h i r , M a l i n v a u d m e n c o b a m e m b e r i a k o m o d a s i p e n g e r t i ­a n b a h w a " r e a l w a g e s " b e g i t u t i n g g i s e h i n g g a i n v e s t a s i t i d a k m e n g u n t u n g ­k a n .

P a d a s a a t i n i , p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i e k o n o m i M a k r o D i s e q u i l i b r i u m a k a n b e r k e m b a n g d a r i m o d e l y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n o l e h M a l i n v a u d .

Logikanya Tanggapan Para Pelaku Ekonomi (Rationality of Conjectures).

I s t i l a h b a r u i n i , " r a t i o n a l i t y o f c o n j e c t u r e s " a t a u l o g i k a d a r i t a n g g a p a n - t a n g -g a p a n p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i d a l a m m e n g h a d a p i k u r v e p e r m i n t a a n , s e b e n a r ­n y a i s t i l a h b a r u y a n g d i p a k a i m e n j e l a s k a n k o n s e p l a m a . Y a i t u s u a t u k o n s e p y a n g m e n g g a m b a r k a n b a g a i m a n a p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i i t u a k a n m e n a n g g a p i p e r m i n t a a n n y a s e n d i r i ( t h e i r o w n d e m a n d c u r v e ) y a n g b e r s i f a t t i d a k m e n e n t u ( u n c e r t a i n ) . T a n g g a p a n - t a n g g a p a n p a r a p e l a k u t e r s e b u t m e r u p a k a n eksperi­men psychologis d a l a m p i k i r a n n y a . D a n d a l a m m e n j a l a n k a n e k s p e r i m e n n y a t e n t u a d a d a s a r l o g i k a y a n g m e n u n j a n g n y a .

D e f i n i s i i s t i l a h b a r u " r a t i o n a l l y o f c o n j e c t u r e s " a d a l a h t u g a s y a n g s u l i t . D e n g a n c o n t o h b a r a n g k a l i d a p a t d i j e l a s k a n . M i s a l n y a s e o r a n g p e l a k u e k o n o m i berkeingimn m e n a w a r k a n t e n a g a k e r j a n y a d i p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a d e n g a n s y a r a t ( c o n d i t i o n a l ) a t a u t e r g a n t u n g p a d a " s i g n a l " y a n g d i a t e r i m a . H a n y a s a j a ke-inginannya b e r d a s a r k a n s u a t u " c o n j e c t u r e s " ( a n g a n - a n g a r i a t a u t a n g g a p a n ) t e n t a n g u p a h d a n m a c a m p e k e r j a a n y a n g a k a n d i p e r o l e h . " C o n j e c t u r e s m a n a a k a n t e r n y a t a t i d a k b e n a r ( f a l s e ) d e n g a n j a l a n b e t u l - b e t u l m e n a w a r k a n t e -n a g a n y a ( b y v a r y i n g t r a d e ) , y a i t u d i a h a r u s m e n g u m p u l k a n i n f o r m a s i l e b i h

19 K. Hildenbrand dan W. Hildenbrand, "On Kevnesian Equilibrium with Unemplov-ment and Quantitv Rationing", J o u r n a l o f Economic Theory, volume 18 (1978), hala­man 255 - 277.

76 E K I , Vol . X X X , No. 1, March 1982

d u l u ( s e a r c h ) d a n k e m u d i a n m e n a w a r k a n d e n g a n u p a h y a n g l e b i h r e n d a h . K e s e m u a n y a i n i ( b y v a r y i n g t r a d e ) , m e n y a n g k u t b i a y a . K a l a u d e m i k i a n p e ­l a k u e k o n o m i t e r s e b u t a k a n m e m i l i h l e b i h b a i k t i d a k m e m b u a t e k s p e r i m e n k a r e n a b i a y a y a n g h a m s d i p i k u l . S e a n d a i n y a t i d a k a d a b i a y a d e m i k i a n , m a k a s e c a r a t e k n i s k i t a a k a n m e m i l i k i s i t u a s i " W a l r a s i a n e q u i l i b r u m " , j a d i t i d a k a d a p e r s o a l a n l a g ) . D a l a m k e n y a t a a n n y a " j e r b a s u k i m a w a b e y a " , ( " t h e r e i s n o s u c h t h i n g a s a f r e e l u n c h ! " ) , s e h i n g g a k i t a s e k a l i l a g i m e n a n y a k a n b e r a p a b a n y a k i n f o r m a s i y a n g d i p e r l u k a n b a g i s e s e o r a n g s e b a m s n y a m e n g a m b i l s u a t u t i n d a k a n y a n g r a s i o n a l . I n i l a h p e r s o a l a n p o k o k n y a d a l a m p e r k e m b a n g ­a n t e o r i e k o n o m i M a k r o D i s e q u i l i b r i u m d i m a n a " r a t i o n a l i t y o f c o n j e c t u ­r e s " y a n g m e n u n j a n g a d a n y a " N o n - W a l r a s i a n e q u i l i b r i u m " s e d a n g d a l a m t a r a f p e r t u m b u h a r m y a ( i n f a n c y ) . . . ; , , c i , , < . - , r . ^ /

B e b e r a p a u s a h a m e m b u a t d e f i n i s i " r a t i o n a l i t y o f c o n j e c t u r e s " t e l a h d i j a l a n k a n o l e h H a n n , ^ ° V a r i a n , ^ ' H e l l e r d a n S t a n , ^ ^ d a n N e g i s h i . ^ * U s a h a -u s a h a p e n e l i t i a n d i b i d a n g " r a t i o n a l i t y o f c o n j e c t u r e s " s e p e r t i d i g a m b a r k a n d i a t a s u n t u k m e n u n j a n g a d a n y a " u n e m p l o y m e n t e q u i l i b r i u m " s a n g a t t e r b a t a s h a s i l n y a . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n , a n t a r a l a i n , k a r e n a b e b e r a p a a s p e k p o k o k d a r i e k o n o m i d i n y a t a k a n s e b a g a i p a r a m e t e r a t a u k a r e n a b e b e r a p a p e l a k u e k o n o m i s a n g a t dibatasi dalam perbuatannya atau dibatasi informasi. A k b i m y a , s e ­p e r t i d i c a t a t o l e h D r a z e n ( 1 9 8 0 , 1 5 ) , b a h w a j a t u h b a n g u n n y a " N o n - W a l r a ­s i a n M o d e l s o f U n e m p l o y m e n t " s a n g a t t e r g a n t u n g p a d a m a s a l a h " r a t i o n a l i t y o f c o n j e c t u r e s " s e p e r t i d i j e l a s k a n d i a t a s . « . • >, > f

, , ' 'MZ 1 -• • ' • d t p - £ .. HZ . „ A l i i

. Z n ' J ' d M . : ' i i ' , \ . C ' . ' C H j . , 1 . „v>/ , - ( : [ ! > ' ' , i-. o-5 i ^ A A '

-fe 4 . . i , i " S ! ' i i I ! r " . • > yic '

- ' . ' . > ' i ' f ' ' 1 ' 0 , H n • r, • , . ' .

' c % .'1 i J t ; s 4 * '

A J,'.

20 F . Hahn "On Non-Walrasian Equilibria, Review o f Economic Studies, volume 48 (1978), halaman 1 - 1 7 . 21 H. Varian, "Non-Walrasian Equilibria", Econometrica, volume 45 (1977), halaman 573 - 590. 22W.P. Heller dan R.M. Starr, "Unemployment Equilibrium with Myopic Complete Information", Review o f Economic Studies, volume 46 (1979), halaman 339 - 359. 23 T. Negishi, "Involuntary Unemployment and Market Imperfection, £'conon»F Studies Q u a r t e r l y , volume 25 (1974), halaman 32 - 4 1 .

E K I , Vol . X X X , No. 1, March 1982 77

Fetiaaa U a n g d a l a m S t r u k t u r L a l u L i n t a s P e n u k a r a n D a l a m N o n - W a l r a s i a n E q u i l i b r i u m .

Seperti telah disebut di atas Leijonhufvud mengaris bawahi pentingnya struktur lalu lintas penukaran dan peranan dan karakteristik uang dalam lalu lintas perdagangan dalam menjelaskan kekuatan permintaan yang effektif (effective demand).

P e r a n a n u a n g d i b i c a r a k a n di sini daiam keadaan e q u i i i b r i u m bersendi N o n -W a l r a s i a n . Keadaan equilibrium demikian sangat tergantung pada perbedaan antara permintaan yang effektif dan permintaan yang bersifat keinginan (notional demand). Permintaan effektif adalah permintaan yang mendorong terjadinya lalu lintas penukaran antara komoditi dan uang.

Selanjutnya seperti sudah dibicarakan, adanya "involuntary unemploy­ment" atau adanya kelebiban penawaran (excess supply) di pasar tenaga kerja tidak ada hubungannya dengan kelebihan permintaan komoditi di pasar ko­moditi, karena tidak ada "signal" yang disampaikan dari pasar komoditi kepada produsen dan kemudian produsen kepada buruh dan kemudian produ­sen kepada buruh dan karena "trade" ini "dibuka" (uncoupled) oleh adanya pemakaian uang atau apa saja yang dapat bertindak sebagai "medium of exchange" mempunyai akibat yang sama dalam membuka trade.

Di samping "medium of exchange" ini berperan sebagai pen^ubung antara kedua macan demand (effective dan notional) dari masing-masing pa­sar, juga berperan sebagai alat untuk meminimumkan kebutuhan berspeku-lasi.

Jadi bukan pemakaian UMig yaag mendorcmg adanya Non-Wrirasian Equilibrium (atau a quantity constrained equilibrium), melainkan sebaliknya bahwa karena sifat trade yang tidak synclaords tersebut yar^ mendorot^ pe­m a k a i a n uang.

Menumt pengamatan Drazen (1980,15) serii^ timbul kekaburan'* da-., lam kepustakaai teori ekcmomi disequilibrium karena pandangan bahwa pe-maksuan uang sebagi suatu hambatan bagi adanya trade. Ini mengharuskan bahwa semua trade harus memakai uang, dalam mereka membuat model de-n p n memasukkan "medium of exchange". Persoalan pokok di sini bukaimya uang tidak mempunyai peranw untuk menaikkan effisiensi dalam kegiatan ekonomi, melainkan Drazen (1980, 15) ingm menekankiin bahwa pemakai­an uang bukan ymg bertanggung jawab adanya N o n - W a i r a s i a n e q u i t i b r u m .

24 Yang dikemukakan deh R.W. Qewet, "A Reconadeiation of the Mirao Foundations of Monetary Theory", Western Econamk Journal, vdume 6 (1967) halaman 1 - 9 .

E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1 , March 1982

Dengan kata lain, "a medium of exchange" (dapat dalam bentuk uang atau beibagai macam asset) adalah tidak merupakan keharusan untuk eksistensi suatu equilibrium bersendi Non-Walrasian.

Kesimpulan

Bab ini mulai dengan membicarakan perbedaan antara analisa equilibrium dan disequilibrum. Analisa equilibrium adalah kerangka analisa untuk memper-deh hasil terakhir (namanya equilibrium) dari proses penyesuaian antara pe­nawaran dan permintaan, dan analisa tersebut tidak mempunyai kewajiban logika (logical obligation) akan adanya persamaan antara penawaran dan per­mintaan.

Beberapa aspek pokok dari analisa disequilibrum dibicarakan di sini. Pada dasamya ada dua model pokok, model berdasar "fixed price" dan model berdasar rmggapan bahwa para pelaku ekonomi daiam mengajukan "effective demand" memperhitungkan "constraint" yang ditMiggapi di pasar lain.

Ada berbagai macam "rationing scheme" (mekanisme membuat jatah karena adanya kelebflian permintaan atau kelebihan penawaran). Misalnya "Rationing scheme" yang dapat dimanipulasikan dan ada yang tidak dapat dipermainkan. Ini tergantung pada sifat hubungan fungsionil antara transaksi dari seorang pelaku ekonomi dengan "effective demand"4iya.

Pemikhui terakhir mengenai "rationality of conjectures", yaitu "teori baru" yang menelaah tentang "gedankte" experiment" ( e k ^ r k n e n yang yang (Makukan dalam pikiran para pelaku ekonomi sebelum mereka mengaju­kan "effective demand"). Karena 'jer basuki mawa beya" maka berapa ba­nyak biaya atau kebutuhan informasi diperlukan bagi seorang pelaku ekono­mi sebelum mengambil keputusan ekonomi. Inilah persoalan pokok perkem­bangan TeoH-Makro Disequilibrum, di mana "rationality of conjectures" di­pakai untuk menunja^ adanya "Non-Walrarian Equilibrium".

Peranan uang atau "medium of exchange" lainnya d^am keadaan equilibrium bersemh Non-Wakasian adalah menghubungkan mtara "notional demand" dan "effective demand", dan sebagai alat imtuk meminimkan kebu-tahm berspekulari. Pemakaian uang bukan yang mendorong adanya "Non-Wakarian eqiakbrium" atau equilibrium berdasar adanya "quantity con­straint". . ,. , ,

• ' ' ,.:vx \.ii.:y,. ,. • . 7, . I V . bnrMktmUpEkmmail^oaam vi;.A^.:m-_X:^..v,:s:t.,^..---..

Sebelum kami mengungkaplum implikasi perkembangan baru dalam Ekonomi Makro Disequilibrium tersebut di atas bagi peny^pumaan pengertian kita tentai^ ekoncHni Indonesia, maka kami ingm menekimkan tiga pei^aratan

• • • • " • " ' ' : N \ ; - \ X .4 - A x s . i g : -

E K L Vol . X X X . No. 1 , Much 1982

p e m a k a i a n t e o r i e k o n o m i d a l a m p r a k t e k i n t e r p r e t a s i k e a d a a n e k o n o m i I n d o ­n e s i a d e w a s a i n i d a n d i m a s a y a n g a k a n d a t a n g .

P e r t a m a k a l i , t e o r i e k o n o m i a d a l a h s e b a g a i k e r a n g k a a n a l i s a ( a n f l / y f t ' c f l / f r a m e w o r k ) d a l a m m e m b u a t t a n g g a p a n ( a s s e s s m e n t ) t e n t a n g t a t a - e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . N a m u n d e m i k i a n p e r l u d i c a t a t , b a h w a d a l a m i l m u - i l m u s o s i a l , p e m i l i h a n k e r a n g k a a n a l i s a d a n m e t h o d o l o g i a d a l a h s a n g a t p e n t i n g p e n g a r u h -n y a p a d a hasil tanggapan dan a n a l i s a d a n a k h i m y a d a l a m m e m b u a t k e b i j a k ­s a n a a n e k o n o m i . H a l i n i t e r u t a m a d i s e b a b k a n b a h w a p e n g u m p u l a n d a t a a t a u i n f o r m a s i t i d a k d a p a t b e r j a l a n s e c a r a t e r p a d u t a n p a " b a c k - u p " s u a t u k o n s e p d a n t e o r i y a n g j e l a s d a n k o n s i s t e n d a l a m h u b u n g a n k a i t a n s e k t o r y a n g s a t u d e n g a n y a n g l a i n . M e k a n i s m e h u b u n g a n p e n y e s u a i a n a n t a r s e k t o r t i d a k d a p a t d i t a m p u n g d a l a m p e n g u m p u l a n i n f o r m a s i t a n p a k e r a n g k a a n a l i s a y a n g m a p a n . B a n y a k p e n g u m p u l a n i n f o r m a s i y a n g d i b u a t d e n g a n j a l a n t a m b a l s u l a m t a n p a d i s u s u n d a l a m k a i t a n y a n g t e r a r a h . P e n g a r a b a n i n i m e m e r l u k a n p e m i k i r a n y a n g m e n d a l a m . K h u s u s n y a , a p a k a h t e o r i e k o n o m i y a n g d i p a k a i l e b i h m e n g -u t a m a k a n " e f f i c i e n c y " d e n g a n p e n g o r b a n a n " e q u i t y " ( p e m e r a t a a n ) a t a u k a h s e b a l i k n y a . B a h k a n p a d a p o k o k n y a d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i p e n e n t u a n effisiensi sekaligus a d a l a h penentuan "equity"(pemerataan) dan penentuan equity se­c a r a simultan a d a l a h penentuan effisiensi. D e n g a n k a t a l a i n , d i s a m p i n g k e ­r a n g k a a n a l i s a m e m i l i k i a s p e k t e k n o l o g i ^ * j u g a m e m i l i k i a s p e k m o r a l i t a s a t a u i d e o l o g j .

A s p e k i n i y a n g m e n j a d i p e r b e d a a n p e n d a p a t a n t a r a p a r a a h l i e k o n o m i . M i s a l n y a b a g j p e n g a n u t u t i l i t a r i a n ^ * m a k a p r o d u k a t a u p e n g h a s i l a n n a s i o n a l d i b a g i s e c a r a m e r a t a . B a g j p e n g a n u t R a w l s i a n ^ ' ' m a k a p r o d u k n a s i o n a l d i ­b a g i d e n g a n m e n g u t a m a k a h m e r e k a y a n g d a l a m k e a d a a n s a n g a t p a r a h d a l a m a r t i k e m i s k i n a n ( " f a v o r i n g t h e w o r s t " ) . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n h u b u n g a n erat t e r j a i i n a n t a r a t e o r i e k o n o m i ( s e b a g a i a n a l y t i c a l f r a m e w o r k ) , i n t e r p r e t a s i t a t a -

".,«tS(:.i| , K : . l f l j j &VEmil\Am&:i5f^ 1<1 mtib^Vt'' :su<i; 4 , . 4 4> ..Si'il

25 Misalnya kegiatan produksi ekonomi dapat berjalan kalau ada "non-negative" kontri­busi marginal-nya. 26 Utiliarian adalah salah satu dasar moralitas klassik dari teori-ekonomi. Di samping itu ada dasar-dasar lain, misalnya keadilan berdasar rakyat banyak, keadilan berdasar berapa besar kontribusi sektor-sektor dalam pembentukan penghasilan nasional dan Rawlsian. 27 Para pembaca dianjurkan untuk mengkaji pemikiran yang relatif baru tentang dasar ideologi pembagian pen^asilan nasional, yang dianjrukan oleh Professor Ravds dalam bukunya 77ie Theory o f Justice, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1971. Tulisan tersebut telah tepat diakui sebagai investigasi yang paling mendalam ten­tang bakekat keadilan sosial dalam jaman modem ini.

8 0 E K I , Vol . X X X , No. 1, March i982

e k o n o m i d a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i y a n g d i t a r i k d a r i h a s i l a n a l i s a . ^ ' B a g i p a r a p e m b u a t k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i y a n g b e r k e b e r a t a n p e m a k a i a n t e o r i -e k o n o m i , p e r l u d i k e m u k a k a n b e r u l a n g - u l a n g , a d a n y a s a d u r a n k l a s i k d a r i K e y n e s , b a h w a " . . . p e m b u a t k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i y a n g m e n o l o a k p e m a ­k a i a n t e o r i e k o n o m i a d a l a h k o r b a n d a r i p a r a a h l i e k o n o m i y a n g s u d a h t i d a k a d a d i d u n i a i n i ( d e f u n c t e c o n o m i s t ) . . . " .

K e d u a , t e o r i e k o n o m i y a n g d i p a k a i s e b a g a i k e r a n g k a a n a l i s a t i d a k b i s a d i p a k a i s e c a r a o p e r a s i o n i l t a n p a m e m p e r h i t u n g k a n f a k t o r - f a k t o r k e l e m ­b a g a a n d a n k e r a n ^ a o r g a n i s a s i . S e r i n g d i k a t a k a n b a h w a t e o r i e k o n o m i t i d a k m u n g k i n d a p a t d i p a k a i s e c a r a e f f e k t i f d a l a m d u n i a y a n g f a c u m ( m u m i a t a u m a n d u l ) . K i t a t i d a k m u n g k i n m e m a k a i t e o r i e k o n o m i s e b a g a i a n a l y t i c a l f r a m e w o r k t a n p a m e m p e r h i t u n g k a n f a k t o r - f a k t o r k e l e m b a g a a n , t e r m a s u k m i s a l n y a k e b u d a y a a n , s o s i a l - p o l i t i k d a n f a k t o r - f a k t o r t r a d i s i l a i n n y a . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n d a l a m m e n g a n a l i s a i m p l i k a s i p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r u t e o r i e k o n o m i p e r l u d i k a j i s a m p a i b e r a p a j a u h f a k t o r k e l e m b a g a a n I n d o n e s i a s u d a h d l p e r ­h i t u n g k a n .

K e t i g a , b a h w a k a r a t e r i s t i k p o k o k e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a a d a l a h m e n g a n ­d u n g k e s e i m b a n g a n y a n g s a n g a t s e n s i t i f d a n h a l u s a t a u " d e l i c a t e b a l a n c e " . Y a i t u k e s e i m b a n g a n a n t a r a p e r t i m b a n g a n e k o n o m i s , d a n p e r t i m b a n g a n p o l i -t i s . B a h w a s a n y a t a t a - e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a s e c a r a e k o n o m i s p e r l u d i s u s u n s e c a r a d e s e n t r a l i s a s i . H a l i n i t e r u t a m a d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a " i s l a n d c o n f i g u r a t i o n " ( s i f a t k e a n e k a r a g a m a n k a r e n a s t r u k t u r g e o g r a f i s d a l a m b e n t u k k e p u l a u a n ) . K a r e n a i s l a n d c o n f i g u r a t i o n t e r s e b u t , p e n d u d u k m e m i l i k i p r e f e r e n s i ( t a s t e s ) d a n s t r u k t u r i n f o r m a s i y a n g b e r b e d a - b e d a . A r t i n y a , p e n d u d u k d i d a e r a h d a ­p a t m e n g e t a h u i k e b u t u h a n p o k o k m a s i n g - m a s i n g . S e c a r a p o U t i s , t a t a -e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d i s u s u n s e c a r a s e n t r a l i s a s i , k a r e n a a d a n y a k e t i d a k s e i m ­b a n g a n d i s t r i b u s i p e n d u d u k , d i s t r i b u s i k e k a y a a n a l a m d a n k e t i d a k s e i m ­b a n g a n k e c e p a t a n k e m a j u a n a d m i n i s t r a s i d a n t a t a - e k o n o m i a n t a r d a e r a h . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n m a k a e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a s e l a l u d a l a m p r o s e s p e n y e s u a i a n ( a d j u s t m e n t p r o c e s s ) t e r u s - m e n e r u s d a n s a n g a t d e l i c a t e .

S e g e r a k i t a m e n g e n a i k e t i g a p e r s y a r a t a n t e r s e b u t , y a i t u t e o r i e k o n o m i s e b a g a i k e r a n g k a a n a l i s a ( a n a l y t i c a l f r a m e w o r k ) , f a k t o r k e l e m b a g a a n d a n p r o s e s k e s e i m b a n g a n s e c a r a h a l u s ( d e l i c a t e ) a n t a r a f a k t o r k e b u t u h a n d e s e n ­t r a l i s a s i e k o n o m i d a n s e n t r a l i s a s i p o l i t i k b e r t a l i a n d e n g a n " i s l a n d c o n f i g u r a ­t i o n " t e r s e b u t , m a k a p e n i n j a u a n i m p l i k a s i p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r u d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i m a k r o d a p a t d i m a n f a a t k a n d a l a m m e m b a n t u p e n y e m p u m a a n p e n g e r t i a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . i

• 7 * , : ' i . 7 ; , ! • - . X:J^v:0(

28 Bagi teori ekonomi Klassik dan Neo Klassik, hubungannya adalah "one to one correspondence", sedangkan bagj teori ekonomi modem hubungannya tidak selalu demi­kian. Lihat uraian berikut tentang faktor kelembagaan dan igka organisasi.

E K L VoL X X X , No. 1 , March 1982 81

I m p l i k a s i p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i e k o n o m i y a n g a k a n d i b a b a s t e r m a s u k : 1 . p e r a n a n p e n e n t u a n h a r g a 2 . p e r a n a n i n f o r m a s i d i I n d o n e s i a 3 . m a s a l a h u n e m p l o y m e n t 4. m a s a l a h " r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " : < . : , , 5 . p e r a n a n u a n g 6. m o t i v a s i p e l a k u e k o n o m i

1. Peranan penentuan haiga (price-setting)

S e p e r t i t e l a h d i t i n j a u d a l a m B a b 11 d a n 111, " p r i c e a d j u s t m e n t " d a l a m h a l k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n b e r j a l a n l e b i h l a m b a t d a r i ­p a d a " q u a n t i t y a d j u s t m e n t " . D i I n d o n e s i a , " p r i c e s " m e r u p a k a n t a r g e t v a ­r i a b e l y a n g d i t e n t u k a n o l e h s e k t o r P e m e r i n t a h d a n s e b a g i a n o l e h s e k t o r s w a s ­t a y a n g m e n d e k a t i p o s i s i m o n o p o l i . P e n e n t u a n " p r i c e v e c t o r s " ^ ' d i I n d o n e s i a b e r d a s a r a n g g a p a n s e o l a h - o l a h d e n g a n m e m e g a n g " p r i c e s " m a k a k e t i d a k s e ­i m b a n g a n a k a n t e r p e c a h k a n . S e p e r t i d i k e t a h u i d a r i u r a i a n d a l a m B a b - B a b d i a t a s , b a h w a d e n g a n d i p e g a n g n y a " p r i c e s " s e b a g a i k o n s t a n , m a k a t i m b u l b e r ­b a g a i b e n t u k " q u a n t i t y a d j u s t m e n t " b e r g e r a k d e n g a n c e p a t u n t u k m e m e c a h ­k a n k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n b a i k a n t a r s e k t o r m a u p u n d a l a m s e k t o r m a s i n g r i n a s i n g . D i s a m p i n g i t u , i m p l i k a s i l a i n n y a b a n y a k , a n t a r a l a i n , p e r a n a n t r a d i s i o n a l d a r i " p r i c e s " t e l a h d i k e b i r i , s e h i n g g a t i m b u l v a r i a b e l b e n t u k " n o n - p r i c e s " t e l a h d i k e b i r i , s e h i n g g a t i m b u l v a r i a b e l b e n t u k " n o n -p r i c e s " y a n g s e b e n a m y a , " p r i c e s y s t e m " d a l a m t a t a - e k o n o m i t i d a k l a g i s e b a g a i k o o r d i n a t o r k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i s e h i n g g a t i m b u l b e r b a g a i m a c a m k e ­g i a t a n a d h o c ( t a m b a l s u l a m ) , d a n " p r i c e s y s t e m " d e m i k i a n j u g a s e c a r a d i a m -d i a m ( t a c i t ) t e l a h a k t i f m e m b a g i p e n g h a s i l a n n a s i o n a l k e a r a h m e r e k a y a n g b e m n t u n g m e m i l i k i i n f o r m a s i y a n g r e l e v a n t u n t u k m e n g a m b i l k e p u t u s a n e k o n o m i . D i s i n i l a h l e t a k k r a n y a n g m e m b u k a j u r a n g a n t a r a " t h e g a i n e r s " d a n " t h e l o o s e r s " m a k i n b e s a r . S e b a g a i k o n s e k w e n s i p e n g k e b i r i a n p e r a n a n p r i c e s , * " i n f o r m a s i m e n j a d i k o m o d i t i y a n g s a n g a t b e r h a r g a . D a n k a r e n a n y a m e r e k a y a n g m e m i l i k i i n f o r m a s i a d a l a h y a n g b e r p e n g a r u h d a l a m t a t a e k o ­n o m i I n d o n e s i a . S e d a n g k a n p a d a h a k e k a t n y a , i n f o r m a s i a d a l a h " p e r i s h a b l e c o m m o d i t i e s " . P e m i l i k i n f o r m a s i d i a n g g a p m e m e g a n g p e n g a r u h , p a d a h a l s e b e n a m y a " k n o w l e d g e i s p o w e r " d a n b u k a n i n f o m i a s i y a n g c e p a t b a s i ( p e r i s h a b l e ) s e b a g a i " p o w e r " . D i s a m p i n g s i f a t c e p a t b a s i t e r s e b u t , b a n y a k

29 "Price vectors" termasuk berbagai macam subsidi baik yang terbuka maupim yang impUcit. 30 Lihat halaman 14, "prices" berperan memberi signal (informasi) kepada para pelaku ekonomi.

E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1 , Mardi 1982

i h f o n n a s i y a n g m e n y e s a t k a n , s e h i n g g a t e r j a d i t a t a - e k o n o m i d i m a n a " p r i c e s y s t e m " - n y a a t a u " i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m " - n y a t i d a k l a g i b e r f u n g s i s e b a g a i k o o r d i n a t o r k e g i a t a n , s e b a g a i p e n g a t u r k e g i a t a n y a n g e f f i s i e n d a n s e b a g a i p e n g a t u r l a l u l i n t a s p e m b a g i a n p e n g h a s i l a n n a s i o n a l .

2. Peranan informasi di Indonesia

E r a t h u b u n g a n n y a d e n g a n " p r i c i n g s y s t e m " t a d i , d a n t e l a h d i s e b u t b a h w a i n f o r m a s i d i I n d o n e s i a t i d a k m e m b e r i s i g n a l s y a n g r e l e v a n t d i b u t u h k a n o l e h p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i d a l a m p e n g a m b i l a n k e p u t u s a n . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n , a n ­t a r a l a i n , k a r e n a t i d a k l e n g k a p n y a t e o r i e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a y a n g m e n u n j a n g k e g i a t a n t a t a - e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a s e h i n g g a d a t a d a n i n f o r m a s i d i k u m p u l k a n s e c a r a t a m b a l s u l a m ( a s n e e d e d ) b a i k o l e h s e k t o r P e m e r i n t a h m a u p u n o l e h s e k t o r s w a s t a . D i s a m p i n g i t u t i m b u l p o l a i n f o r m a s i y a n g s a n g a t " p e r s o n a l i ­z e d " . D i s a m p i n g i t u t i m b u l p o l a i n f o r m a s i y a n g s a n g a t " p e r s o n a l i z e d " . H a ­n y a " i r m e r c i r c l e " s a j a y a n g m e m o n o p o l i i n f o r m a s i y a n g b e r f u n g s i . " I n n e r c i r c l e " i n i t i d a k s e l a l u d a l a m s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a h , t e t a p i h a m p i r d i s e m u a s e k ­t o r . T i m b u l n y a " c h e a t i n g s y s t e m " a d a l a h a k i b a t p a r a h d a r i l e m a h n y a " i n f o r ­m a t i o n s y s t e m " , d i m a n a s e t i a p p e l a k u e k o n o m i m e m b u a t j a r i n g a n i n f o r m a s i sendiri y a n g " t a U o r i z e d " u n t u k m e m e n u h i k e b u t u h a n d a l a m m e n g a m b i l k e p u t u s a n e k o n o m i s e h a r i - h a r i .

3. Masalah unemployment

M a s a l a h u n e m p l o y m e n t a d a l a h m a s a l a h b e s a r b a i k d a r i s e g i t e o r i e k o n o m i -m a k r o m a u p u n d a r i s e g j p e m e c a h a n m a s a l a h s o s i a l - e k o n o m i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g , t e r m a s u k I n d o n e s i a . D a r i p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i e k o ­n o m i m a k r o d i a t a s , a d a n y a u n e m p l o y m e n t m e r u p a k a n a d a n y a " q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t " y a n g m e n o n j o l d i p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a .

D a l a m m e n i n j a u i m p l i k a s i n y a , p e r l u d i i n g a t k e l e m a h a n d a r i " a g g r e g a ­t i o n " d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i m a k r o ( l i h a t h a l a m a n 3 ) . U n e m p l o y m e n t d i I n d o ­n e s i a b e r s i f a t h e t e r o g e n b a i k m e n u m t m a c a m k e t r a m p i l a n m a u p u n m e n u m t r e g i o n . D e n g a n d e m i l d a n , " q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t " - n y a j u g a b e r m a c a m - m a c a m d a l a m s e k t o r p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a .

U n e m p l o y m e n t m e m a n g s e b a m s n y a d i p e c a h k a n s e c e p a t m u n g k i n d e ­n g a n p r o y e k - p r o y e k y a n g l a b o r i n t e n s i v e , p r o y e k - p r o y e k p e n y e r a p t e n a g a k e r j a " a t a l l c o s t s " d e n g a n b e r b a g a i s u b s i d i t e n t u n y a m a i a h mengacaukan sistim h a r g a daiam tata ekonomi I n d o n e s i a . D a n p e r l u d i g a r i s b a w a h i d i s i n i b a h w a p e m e c a h a n p e n o a l a n " p r i c e s y s t e m " h a m s l e b f l i d i u t a m a k a n d a r i p a d a p e m e c a h a n u n e m p l o y m e n t , k a r e n a k e k a c a u a n " p r i c i n g s y s t e m " , b a i k d a l a m b e n t u k s u b s i d i t e r s e m b u n y i , i n f l a s i , d a n s e t e m s n y a a k a n l e b i h m e n g h a n c u r -k a n " s o c i a l f a b r i c " m a s y a r a k a t k i t a . D i s i n i K e y n e s s e b a g a i p o l i t i c a l e c o n o -

E K I , Vol . X X X , No. 1, March 1982 88

"•'St m e m b u a t k e k e l i r u a n b e s a r d a l a m m e n e k a n k a n u n e m p l o y m e n t m u s u h p e r t a m a y a n g h a r u s d i p e r a n g i . I n i d a p a t d i m e n g e r t i , k a r e n a i d e e K e y n e s l a h i r d i t e n g a h - t e n g a h u n e m p l o y m e n t b e s a r - b e s a r a n . C o n t o h k o n k r i t d a r i r u s a k -n y a " s o c i a l f a b r i c " a k i b a t i n f l a s i a d a l a h d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d e w a s a i n i , d i m a n a k e h i d u p a n s o s i a l s u d a h m u l a i " d i s i n t e g r a t e d " . C o n t o h l a i n d i I n d o n e ­s i a , d k n a n a " p r i c i n g s y s t e m " y a n g k a b u r m e n c i p t a k a n s u a t u " c h e a t i n g s y s t e m " d i s e g a l a l a p i s a n m a s y a r a k a t .

4. Masalah "rationing scheme" , . ; „ ,

C a r a - c a r a p e n j a t a h a n ( " r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " ) k a r e n a a d a n y a e x c e s s s u p p l y d i p a s a r t e n a g a k e r j a d i I n d o n e s i a p e r l u m e n d a p a t p e r h a t i a n u t a m a . I m p l i ­k a s i n y a k e m a j u a n p e m i k i r a n d a l a m m e n y u s u n " r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " d a p a t s e c a r a s i n g k a t d i k e m u k a k a n d i s i n i . " R a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " s a n g a t e r a t h u b u n g ­a n n y a d e n g a n s t r u k t u r i n f o r m a s i d i I n d o n e s i a . O l e h k a r e n a i t u p e r l u d i p i k i r -k a n k e m b a l i a p a k a h " r a t i o n i n g " d e n g a n m e m a k a i b e r m a c a m - m a c a m p r o s e s s e l e k s i f o r m a l a t a u i n f o r m a l b e n a r - b e n a r b e r f u n g s i m e n g a l o k a s i k a n e x c e s s s u p p l y k e a r a h s e k t o r - s e k t o r y a n g l e b i h p r o d u k t i f .

M i s a l l o k a s i t e r j a d i k a r e n a a d a n y a m i s r e p r e s e n t a s i d a r i i n f o r m a s i d a n t i d a k j e l a s n y a c a r a p e m a k a i a n j a t a h , y a i t u r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e y a n g d a p a t a t a u t i d a k d a p a t d i m a n i p u l a s i k a n . S i f a t h u b u n g a n a n t a r a e f f e c t i v e d e m a n d d e n g a n k e g i a t a n p e l a k u e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a p e r l u d i t i n j a u k e m b a l i s e h i n g g a d a p a t d i ­b u a t " r a t i o n i n g s c h e m e " y a n g m a n t a p d a l a m m e m e c a h e x c e s s s u p p l y t e n a g a k e r j a . S i n g k a t n y a m a s a l a h " R a t i o n i n g S c h e m e " d i I n d o n e s i a s a n g a t e r a t k a i t ­a n n y a d e n g a n p e r m a s a l a h a n l a i n , t e r u t a m a m o t i v a s i p e l a k u e k o n o m i I n d o n e ­s i a d a n s t r u k t u r i n f o r m a s i . AM;:'<:;' .4 iitoZ :

5. Peranan Uang dalam Disequilibrnun ;. . , ; t ' •.

U a n g R u p i a h a d a l a h s a l a h s a t u t a l i p e n g i k a t h u b u n g a n y a n g p e n t i n g a n t a r a p e l a k u - p e l a k u e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a y a n g t e r s e b a r d i s e l u m h k e p u l a u a n d i s a m ­p i n g b a h a s a I n d o n e s i a . S e p e r t i t e l a h d i s e b u t , a d a n y a " d e l i c a t e b a l a n c e " d a l a m k e h i d u p a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a k a r e n a s i f a t " i s l a n d c o n f i g u r a t i o n " m e m b e b a n k a n t u g a s R u p i a h t i d a k h a n y a b e r s i f a t f u n g s i e k o n o m i s t e t a p i j u g a f u n g s i d i l u a r t r a d i s i " m e d i u m o f e x c h a n g e " . K a r e n a e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a m e ­m i l i k i s i t u a s i " d i s e q u i l i b r i u m " d a l a m a r t i a n N o n - W a I r a . s i a n , d a n d a l a m k e ­a d a a n d e m i k i a n , m e n u m t t e o r i , p e r a n a n u a n g b u k a n p e n y e b a b a d a n y a d i s -s e q u r l i b n u m . D i s a m p m g u a n g d i p e r e d a r a n , d i I n d o n e s i a t e r d a p a t b e r b a g a i

J , I , " t ) f I ' J t , • i > b ; ' " '

Tui'Sl , » ' 1 ' ' S ' H 1 . , 1 , •* . J. 1 j " f C 4 1 a % i vzAn, J. u j S i ' .. • v> n o , , . ,

E K I , Vol . X X X , No. 1 , March 1982

m a c a m k r e d i t b a i k d a l a m " o r g a n i z e d f i n a n c i a l m a r k e t " m a u p u n " u n o r g a n i z e d financial m a r k e t m a r k e t " . * '

H a n y a s a j a b e n t u k financial a s s e t d i m a n a p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i d a p a t m e n g a k u m u l a s i k e k a y a a n n y a m a s i h t e r b a t a s .

6. Motivasi Pelaku Ekonomi •

M o t i v a s i a d a l a h m o t o r d a r i k e h i d u p a n p e l a k u - p e l a k u e k o n o m i . K a r e n a i t u s e ­m u a u s a h a p e m e c a h a n k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n a n t a r s e k t o r , s a n g a t d i t e n t u k a n o l e h m o t i v a s i t e r s e b u t . P e l a k u e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a , k a r e n a m e n g h a d a p i b e r ­k u r a n g n y a p e r a n a n h a r g a d a l a m f u n g s i t r a d i s i o n a l n y a d a n s t r u k t u r i n f o r m a s i I n d o n e s i a , b e r - r e s p o n s e d e n g a n b e r b a g a i j a l a n " c o n j e c t u r e s " . P e l a k u - p e l a k u t e r s e b u t d a l a m k e n y a t a a n t i d a k s e m p a t u n t u k m e n g a d a k a n " g e d a n k t e e x p e r i ­m e n t " , k a r e n a t e r l a l u m a h a l d a n " e v e r y t h i n g i s p o s s i b l e i n t h i s s o c i e t y " ( " b i s a d i a t u r " ) . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n m o t o r p e n g g e r a k m o t i v a s i p e l a k u e k o n o m i I n d o ­n e s i a t e r g e s e r o l e h c e p a t n y a p e r u b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n " p r i c e s e t t i n g " d a n k a r e n a s i f a t s t r u k t u r i n f o r m a s i .

Kesimpulan

I m p l i k a s i y a n g d a p a t d i t a r i k d a r i p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r u d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i m a k r o d i s e q u i l i b r i u m b a n y a k s e k a l i . D i s i n i k a m i h a n y a s e c a r a s i n g k a t m e n g ­u r a i k a n s e b a g a i b o n u s b a g j p a r a p e m b a c a , k a r e n a t u j u a n u t a m a c e r a m a h i n i b e r s i f a t m e n y a m p a i k a n p e n g e t a h u a n ( t r a n s f e r o f k n o w l e d g e ) , d a n b u k a n b e ­g i t u s a j a m e n g i n t e r p r e t a s i k a n t a t a - e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a t a n p a d i p i k i r k a n l e b i h d a h u l u .

O l e h k a r e n a i t u , a d a t i g a p e r s y a r a t a n p e m a k a i a n t e o r i d a l a m m e n g ­i n t e r p r e t a s i k a n k e h i d u p a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . P e r t a m a , t e o r i h a n y a s e b a g a i " a n a l y t i c a l f r a m e w o r k " . K e d u a , d a l a m h a l m e m a k a i t e o r i s e b a g a i " a n a l y t i c a l f r a m e w o r k " p e r l u d i p i k i r k a n b a h w a t e o r i t i d a k b e r o p e r a s i d a l a m k e k o s o n g a n k e l e m b a g a a n . K e t i g a , k a r a k t e r i s t i k d a s a r e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a y a n g s a n g a t " d e l i c a t e " i n i p e r l u d i p e r b a t i k a n .

D i s i n i d i c a n t u m k a n b e b e r a p a c o n t o h d a l a m m e n i n j a u t a t a - e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d e n g a n k a c a m a t a t e o r i e k o n o m i m a k r o d i s e q u i l i b r i u m . D a r i s e k i a n c o n t o h m a k a p e r a n a n p e n e n t u a n h a r g a ( p r i c e s e t t i n g ) , p e r a n a n i n f o r m a s i d a n p e r a n a n u a n g s e r t a b e n t u k " m e d i u m o f e x c h a n g e " l a i r m y a a d a l a h s a n g a t m e ­n e n t u k a n a r a h p e r k e m b a n g a n k e a d a a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a .

31 Walaupun penulis ada "temptation" untuk menguraikan panjang lebar, kami sengaja sangat membatasi diri dalam penyajiannya. Penulis telah menyusun Makalah Kerja ber-judul "Unorganized Financial Markets" sebagai Kompetisi K I K / K M K P , yang akan di­terbitkan dalam waktu dekat.

E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1 , March 1982

• i

85

V . Agenda Penelitian * " i

E k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a p e n u h d e n g a n o b y e k p e n e l i t i a n y a n g c h a l l e n g i n g b a i k b a g i i l m u e k o n o m i m a u p u n i l m u - i l m u s o s i a l l a i n n y a , k a r e n a k a r a t e r i s t i k d a s a r e k o n o m i t e r s e b u t m e n g h e n d a k i s u a t u p e m i k i r a n b a g a i m a n a m e n c a p a i k e ­s e i m b a n g a n y a n g " d e l i c a t e " . U n t u k d a p a t m e m a j u k a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a , p e r l u a d a n y a d e s e n t r a l i s a s i e k o n o m i . S e c a r a s i m u l t a n , I n d o n e s i a t i d a k h a n y a m e m e r l u k a n k e m a j u a n e k o n o m i t e t a p i j u g a p e r l u k e m a j u a n k e h i d u p a n p o l i -t i k - s o s i a l s e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n s e b a g a i b a n g s a . O l e h k a r e n a i t u k e w a j i b a n p a r a a h l i e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a m o d e r n a d a l a h s a n g a t b e r a t t e t a p i m e m i l i k i m i s s i y a n g t e r h o r m a t .

A d a e m p a t t o p i k y a n g d a p a t d i j a l a n k a n p e n e l i t i a n n y a s e c a r a s e r i u s . P e r t a m a , p e r s o a l a n p e m i l i h a n a n t a r a " p r i c e s " a t a u " q u a n t i t i e s " s e b a g a i p a r a m e t e r d a l a m m e n g a r a h k a n k e p a d a k e d u a m a c a m k e s e i m b a n g a n y a n g " d e l i c a t e " t a d i . P e n e l i t i a n s e c a r a k w a n t i t a t i f d a r i p a d a " q u a n t i t y " d a n " p r i ­c e s " d a l a m p r o s e s p e n y e s u a i a n k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n k e k u a t a n p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n . P e n e l i t i a n m e n g e n a i b e s a m y a " v a r i a n c e " d a l a m a r t i a n s t a t i s ­t i k u n t u k v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l " q u a n t i t y " d a n " p r i c e s " . D e n g a n s i f a t k e p u l a u a n d a n r e g i o n a l d a r i e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a , m a k a " v a r i a n c e " d a r i v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l i n i a n t a r r e g i o n p e r l u d i k a j i d e n g a n t e l i t i . M a k s u d p e n e l i t i a n t e r s e b u t u n t u k m e m b e r i k a n s a r a n k e p a d a p e m b u a t k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i , b a h w a s e b e l u m d i a m b i l k e p u t u s a n u n t u k m e n c a m p u r i " p r i c e s " , m a k a p e r l u d i t i n j a u l e b i h d a h u l u a p a k a h v a r i a b e l i n i c u k u p m e m i l i k i " v a r i a n c e " y a n g t i n g g i , s e h i n g g a c a m p u r t a n g a n a k a n m e m b a w a h a s i l y a n g d i h a r a p k a n d a l a m m e n g e m b a l i -k a n k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n . T i d a k a d a n y a p e n g e r t i a n k a r a k t e r i s t i k v a r i a b e l i n i , m a k a p e m e r i n t a h a k a n m c m b u a n g w a k t u m e m e r a n g i s u a t u v a r i a b e l y a n g t i d a k b e r p e r a n m e n g e m b a l i k a n k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n d i s u a t u p a s a r .

K e d u a , m a s a l a h n i l a i i n f o r m a s i d a l a m p e n g a m b i l a n k e p u t u s a n e k o n o m i b a i k o l e h s e k t o r r u m a h t a n g g a , s e k t o r p e n g u s a h a m a u p u n s e k t o r p e m e r i n t a h . K a m i s e b u t d i s i n i b a h w a e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a m e m i l i k i c i r i " i n f o r m a t i o n a l l y d e c e n t r a l i z e d e c o n o m y " . A r t i n y a , t a t a - e k o n o m i d i m a n a i n f o r m a s i - i n f o r m a s i d i t i n g k a t l o k a l s a n g a t b e r b e d a - b e d a , s e h i n g g a p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i d i t i n g k a t l o k a l m e n g e t a h u i d e n g a n d e k a t k e b u t u h a n ( a t a u p r e f e r e n s i ) k o n s u m s i n y a , t e t a p i t i d a k d a p a t m e n g e m u k a k a n s e c a r a l a n g s u n g k e p a d a P e m e r i n t a h P u s a t , k a r e n a b e r b a g a i f a k t o r k e l e m b a g a a n . P e n e l i t i a n y a n g p e r l u d i j a l a n k a n a d a l a h m e n g k a j i bagaimana membuat mekanisme a g a r p u s a t d a p a t m e m p e r o l e h m a n f a a t d a r i p e n g e t a h u a n p e l a k u - p e l a k u e k o n o m i t e n t a n g k e a d a a n l o k a l u n t u k k e p e n t i n g a n p e n g a m b i l k e p u t u s a n d i t i n g k a t n a s i o n a l . i n i o b y e k s t u d i y a n g s a n g a t c h a l l e n g i n g , k a r e n a d a l a m m a s y a r a k a t y a n g m a s i h b e r b o b o t f e o d a l / t r a d i s i o n a l , p i m p i n a n p u s a t s u l i t m e n d a p a t k a n i n f o r m a s i y a n g j u j u r b e r s u m b e r d a r i l o k a l . S e p e r t i d i k e t a h u i , u n t u k " s u r v i v a l " p e l a k u e k o n o m i

86 E K I , Vol . X X X , No. 1, March 1982

l o k a l t i d a k d a p a t m e m b u k a s e c a r a t e r u s t e r a n g k a r e n a r a s a t a k u t d a n m u n g ­k i n k a r e n a k e t i d a k m a m p u a n m e n g a r t i k u l a s i k e i n g i n a n ( p r e f e r e n s i ) - n y a .

K e t i g a , m o t i v a s i p e l a k u e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . D i s i n i t u j u a n p e n e l i t i a n b u k a n m a u m e m b e n t u k m a n u s i a I n d o n e s i a b a r u , t e t a p i m e n g k a j i a p a s e b e ­n a r n y a y a n g m e n j a d i p e n d o r o n g a t a u m o t i v a s i p e l a k u e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a b e r t i n d a k s e p e r t i y a n g k i t a a m a t i . A p a k a b m e r e k a b a n y a m e m a s u k k a n " c o n s t r a i n t " m e n u r u t t a n g g a p a n p e l a k u e k o n o m i t e r s e b u t , a p a k a b c o n s t r a i n t y a n g d i b a d a p i o l e b o r a n g l a i n j u g a d i t a n g g a p i o l e b p e l a k u e k o n o m i t e r s e b u t . J a d i k i t a p e r l u m e n y e l i d i k i b a g a i m a n a p e l a k u e k o n o m i m e l a n g g a r c o n s t r a i n t -n y a y a n g d i b a d a p i s e n d i r i d a n m a l a b m e m p e r b a t i k a n c o n s t r a i n t o r a n g l a i n m e n u r u t t a n g g a p a n n y a ( m i s a b i y a s i f a t t e p a s l i r o a d a l a b k e a d a a n d e m i k i a n ) . Y a n g l e b i b s u l i t d i j a d i k a n o b y e k s t u d i a d a l a h a p a k a h p e l a k u e k o n o m i I n d o ­n e s i a m e m i U k i m o t i v a s i d a n a p a k a b m e r e k a h a n y a m e n g - r e s p o n s e a t a s k e -s e m p a t a n - k e s e m p a t a n y a n g t i m b u l d i d e p a n n y a .

K e e m p a t , s t u d i k e r a n g k a o r g a n i s a s i t a t a - e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . * * K a r e n a b a r g a t i d a k l a g i m e m e g a n g p e r a n a n t r a d i s i o n i l , y a i t u s e b a g a i k o o r d i n a t o r d a n p e m b e r i " s i g n a l " k e p a d a p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i , m a k a p e r l u d i c a r i " s c h e m e " l a i n u n t u k m c n g g a n t i t u g a s k o o r d i n a s i t e r s e b t i t . D a n m e m a n g s a l a b s a t u p e r ­s o a l a n p o k o k d a r i n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g a d a l a b p e n g e m ­b a n g a n " s o c i a l c a p a b i l i t y " y a n g d a p a t m e n y e m p u r n a k a n d a y a s c r a p d a l a m m e n g a t a s i k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n a n t a r a k e k u a t a n p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n . S o c i a l c a p a b i l i t y p e r l u d i s u s u n d a r i s i s t i m o r g a n i s a s i y a n g s u d a b a d a d a n s e c a ­r a e v o l u s i o n e r d i s e m p u r n a k a n .

K e s i m p u l a n

A g e n d a p e n e l i t i a n y a n g d i k e m u k a k a n d i s i n i b e r s i f a t p e n e l i t i a n d a s a r d a n b u ­k a n p e n e b t i a n a t a s d a s a r p e s a n a n . D i s i n i t e m p a t u n i v e r s i t a s s e b a g a i p e n e U t i d a n p e m i k i r k o n s e p . M a s y a r a k a t d a n l e m b a g a - l e m b a g a b a u s a k a n p e m i k i r a n -p e m i k i r a n . J i k a p e m i k i r a n t e r s e b u t t i d a k k u n j u n g d a t a n g , m a k a m a s y a r a k a t a k a n m e n i n g g a i k a n u n i v e r s i t a s .

E m p a t t o p i k d i s a r a n k a n d i s i n i y a i t u " p r i c e s v e r s u s q u a n t i t i e s " , I n d o ­n e s i a s e b a g a i " i n f o r m a t i o n a U y d e c e n t r a l i z e d e c o n o m y " , m o t i v a s i s e b a g a i m o ­t o r d a r i p e l a k u e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d a n " o r g a n i z a t i o n a l f r a m e w o r k " d a r i d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s . , . ? .

32 Lihat Hla Mynt, "Organizational Framework and Economic Development", Lecture delivered, in Rio de Janairo Brazil, August 21,1973.

E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1 . March 1982 87

V I . Kesimpulan Umum t / i s ' y ^ - j * ; s ; , 7 ! &

S e b a g i a n b e s a r d a r i p e n y a j i a n t u l i s a n i n i m e n g e n a i teori ekonomi-makro d a n s i s a n y a m e m b i c a r a k a n i m p l i k a s i p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i t e r s e b u t d a l a m u s a h a m e n y e m p u r n a k a n p e n g e r t i a n k i t a t e n t a n g e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a . S e c a r a k i a s a n d a p a t d i k a t a k a n , b a h w a t o e r i b a g a i k a n j a l a p e n a n g k a p i k a n ; " m e r e k a y a n g m e m b u a t d a n m e m a k a i j a l a t e r s e b u t m a k a m e r e k a l a b y a n g a k a n m e n a n g k a p i k a n n y a " . T i d a k s a t u t m d a k a n p u n y a n g t i d a k b e r d a s a r t e o r i a t a u k o n s e p a d a l a b " r e h e a r s e d a c t i o n " s e p e r t i b a l n y a d a l a m " R a t i o n a U t y o f C o n j e c t u r e s " . N a m u n d e m i k i a n , t e o r i m e m i l i k i k e k u a t a n d a n k e l e m a b a n - k e l e m a b a i m y a . D a l a m p e n y a j i a n i n i , k a m i t e l a b m e n g g a r i s b a w a b i p e r a n a n - p e r a n a n d a n b a ­t a s a n - b a t a s a n t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o , u n t u k s e l a n j u t n y a d a p a t d i r e n u n g k a n s e b e l u m k i t a m e m a k a i t e o r i e k o n o m i - m a k r o .

W a l a u p u n b e b e r a p a k e m a j u a n p e m i k i r a n d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i m a k r o t e l a b d i c a p a i , m a s i h a d a b e b e r a p a t u g a s u n t u k p a r a a b l i e k o n o m i u n t u k m e n ­c a r i j a w a b a n a t a s m i s t e r i m e n g a p a " p r i c e s " m e n g - r e s p o n s e s a n g a t l a m b a t p a d a w a k t u a d a k e t i d a k s e u n b a n g a n a n t a r a p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n d a l a m s u a t u p a s a r . U n s u r - u n s u r a p a y a n g m e n e n t u k a n " q u a n t i t y a d j u s t m e n t s " p a d a w a k t u a d a k e t i d a k s e i m b a n g a n t e l a b d a p a t d i j a w a b d e n g a n l e b i b m e m u a s k a n . A d a d u a m a c a m m o d e l p o k o k b e r s e n d i k a n N o n - W a l r a s i a n . M o d e l b e r d a s a r f i x e d p r i c e d a n m o d e l b e r d a s a r a s u m s i b a b w a p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i d a l a m s u a t u p a s a r d a p a t m e n g a j u k a n p e r m i n t a a n d e n g a n m e n g a b a i k a n " c o n s t r a i n t s " y a n g d i a b a d a p i d a n m a l a h m e m p e r h i t u n g k a n c o n s t r a n t y a n g d i t a n g g a p i d i p a s a r l a i n .

D i s a m p i n g k e d u a m o d e l p o k o k , a d a p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r u t e n t a n g d a ­s a r l o g i k a n y a d a r i t a n g g a p a n p a r a p e l a k u e k o n o m i .

P e n g e t r a p a n m o d e l k e d u a d i j a l a n k a n o l e h M a l i n v a u d d a n b e r b a s i l m e m ­b a g i t i g a m a c a m u n e m p l o y m e n t : K e y n e s i a n , C l a s s i c a l d a n R e p r e s s e d I n f l a ­t i o n .

D a l a m m e m b e r i b e b e r a p a c o n t o b t e n t a n g i m p l i k a s i p e r k e m b a n g a n b a r u d a l a m t e o r i e k o n o m i M a k r o D i s e q u i l i b r i u m , t i g a p e r s y a r a t a n p e m a k a i a n t e o r i d i k e m u k a k a n : t o e r i s e b a g a i " a n a l y t i c a l f r a m e w o r k " , k e r a n g k a a n a l i s a i n i t i d a k a k a n d a p a t d i p a k a i s e c a r a o p e r a s i o n a l t a n p a m e m a s u k k a n k e l e m ­b a g a a n d a n t e r a k h i r " d e U c a t e b a l a n c e " d a r i e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a .

A g e n d a p e n e l i t i a n d i s a j i k a n u n t u k m e n j a d i p e m i k i r a n l e b i b l a n j u t d a n b a b a n d i s k u s i .

88 E K I , VoL X X X , No. 1, March 1982

D A F T A R K E P U S T A K A A N

TeOTi Ekonomi-Makro "General Equilibrium"

1 . K . J . Aiww, "Economic EqnUihnum" daiam International Encyclope­dia of the Social Sciences, volume 4,haimia.n 3 7 6 - 3 8 6 .

2. K . J . ATWW dan F . H . Hahn, General Competitive analysis, Holden Day, S a n F r a n s i s c o , 1971, B a b I I .

3 . D . G a l e , " T h e L a w o f S u p p l y a n d D e m a n d " , Mathematika Scandinavia.j volume 3, Fasciculus 1 , 1 9 5 5 , h a l a m a n 155 — 169.

4. J . R . Hicks, Value and Capital, Oxford University Press, 1939, B a b 1) danWm.

5. R . W . Jones, " T h e S t r u c t u r e o f S i m p l e G e n e r a l E q u i l i b r i u m Model Journal of Poiiticai Economy, volume 73,110.6 {1965), h a l a 557 -572.

6. J . Yiomm, Anh-Equhihrlum, Horth Hoiand, B a b I I I , X I d a n

T e o r i Ekonomi — Makro "Disequilibrum "

7. A.A. Alc\uan, "Information Costs, Pricing a n d R e s o u r c e Unerrip\oy-m e n t " . Western Economic Journal, volume V I I ( J u n e 1969)'ha­laman ifJ9-IIP,.

8 . K . J . A r r o w , ' T o w a r d a T h e o r y o f P r i c e A d j u s t m e n t " , d a l a b i The Allocation of Economic Resources, e^ted b y M . Ahrrjpk^Vitz, Stanford University Press, 1959, halaman 4 1 -51.

9. R . J . B a r r o d a n H . J . G r o s s m a n , " A G e n e r a l D i s e q u i l i b r i u m M ^ i d e l o f I n c o m e a n d Employment", Americant Economic Review), Maret 1971, halaman 82 -93.

1 0 . , Money, Employment, and Inflation, Crrmhridge lUjmversity Press, 1976.

1 1 . J P. Benassy, "Heo-Keynesian Disequdihrium", Review Studies, Volume 42 {October 1975), h a l a m a n 5 0 2 - :

1 2 . , " T h e D i s e q u i l i b r i u m Approach to Monopolis hng and G e n e r a l M o n o p o l i s t i c E q u i l i b r i u m " , Revid

ficonomic 2p.

id Price S e t -ofEcono-

8 1 . 1 3 .

1 4 .

w z c Studies, volume 4 3 {February 1976), halaman W . H . Buiter and H . R . Lorie, " S o m e U n f a m i l i a r P r o p e r t i e s / c j f A F a m i l i a r

M a c r o e c o n o m i c M o d e l " , The Economic Journal, yo)ume 8 1 {De­cember 1977), halaman 7 4 3 - 7 5 4 .

R . W . C l o w e r , T b e K e y n e s i a n C o u n t e r - R e v o l u t i o n : A jTdeoretical Ap­praisal" dalam Monetary Theory, Selected R e a o i j i g s , e d i t e d b y R . W . Clower, Penguin Books, 1969, halaman 27fi -1297.

E K I , Vol. X X X , No. 1 , March 19S2 89

1 5 . A l l a n D r a z e n , " R e c e n t D e v e l o p m e n t s i n M a c r o e c o n o m i c D i s e q u i l i b r i u m T h e o r y " , Econometrica, v o l u m e 4 8 , N o . 2 ( M a r c h 1 9 8 0 ) , h a l a ­m a n 2 8 3 - 3 0 6 .

1 6 . R . J . G o r d o n , " O u t p u t F l u c t u a t i o n s a n d G r a d u a l P r i c e A d j u s t m e n t " , Joumai of Economic Literature, v o l u m e 1 9 ( J u n e 1 9 8 1 ) , h a l a m a n 4 9 3 - 5 3 0 .

1 7 . F r a n k H a h n , " K e y n e s i a n E c o n o m i c s a n d G e n e r a l E q u i l i b r i u m T b e o ­r y " , Institute for Mathematicai Studies in the Social Sciences, S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y , T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t N o . 2 1 9 , t a b u n 1 9 7 6 .

1 8 . , " E x e r c i s e i n C o n j e c t u r a l E q u i l i b r i a " , Scandinavian Joumai of Economics, v o l u m e 7 9 ( 1 9 7 7 ) h a l a m a n 2 1 0 - 2 2 6 .

1 9 . J . M . K e y n e s , The General Theory of Employment, Interest andMoney, H a r c o u r t B r a c e , N e w Y o r k , 1 9 3 6 .

2 0 . A . L e i j o n b u f v u d , On Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes, A S t u d y i n M o n e t a r y T b e o r y , O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , N e w Y o r k , 1 9 6 6 , k h u s u s n y a h a l a m a n 4 9 - 1 0 9 d a n 3 3 1 - 3 8 5 .

2 1 . E . M a l i n v a u d , The Theory of Unemployment Reconsideral, Y R J O J a b n s s o n L e c t u r e s , B a s i l B l a c k w e l l , O x f o r d , 1 9 7 7 .

2 2 . , Profitability and Unemployment, B a s e d o n t b e M a r s h a l l L e c t u r e s g i v e n a t t b e U n i v e r s i t y o f C a m b r i d g e 1 9 7 8 , C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 8 0 .

2 3 . J . M u e l l b a u e r a n d R . P o r t e s , " M a c r o e c o n o m i c M o d e l s W i t h Q u a n t i t y R a t i o n m g " , The Economic Joumai, v o l u m e 8 8 ( D e c e m b e r 1 9 7 8 ) , h a l a m a n 7 8 8 - 8 2 1 .

2 4 . D . P a t i n k i n , Money, Interest, and Puces A n I n t e g r a t i o n o f M o n e t a r y a n d V a l u e T b e o r y , H a r p e r & R o w P u b l i s h e r s , N e w Y o r k , 2 n d e d i t i o n , 1 9 6 5 , t e r u t a m a B a b X I I I d a n X I V .

2 5 . R . M . S o l o w a n d J . E . S t i g l i t z , " O u t p u t , E m p l o y m e n t , a n d W a g e s i n t b e S h o r t R u n " , The Quarterly Joumai of Economics, v o l u m e L X X X I I , N o . 4 ( N o v e m b e r 1 9 6 8 ) , h a l a m a n 5 3 7 - 5 6 0 .

2 6 . J . T o b i n , " K e y n e s i a n M o d e l s o f R e c e s s i o n a n d D e p r e s s i o n s " , A m e r i c a n Economic Review, M a y 1 9 7 5 , h a l a m a n 1 9 5 - 2 0 2 .

90 E K I , Vol. X X X , No. 1, March 1982