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Performing an Invisibility Spell: Global Models, FoodRegimes and Smallholders

Nelly Leblond, Julie Trottier

To cite this version:Nelly Leblond, Julie Trottier. Performing an Invisibility Spell: Global Models, Food Regimes andSmallholders. International Journal of Sociology of Agriculture and Food, Research Committee onSociology of Food and Agriculture (RC40), 2016, 23 (1), pp.21-40. �hal-02111097�

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Performinganinvisibilityspell:globalmodels,foodregimesandsmallholdersNellyLeblond(UniversitéPaulValéry)

JulieTrottier(CNRS)

Abstract:

Thepresentconstructionofglobalrepresentationsoffoodandfarmingisproblematic.Forexample,howcanwe“know”theworldneedstodoublefoodproductionalthoughwecannotforeseeafoodcrisis?Howcanweestimateinvestmentopportunitieswhilefailingtoquantifytheirimpactsonsmallholders?Globalmodelsconstrainthemannerweperceivethefoodregimeastheyproducesuchrepresentations.Weneedtoidentifythecausalrelationsembeddedinsidemodels’equationsandwhytheyarearrayedinthisfashion.Thispapercombinesactornetworktheoryandstructurationisttheorytoanalyseasampleof70globalmodels.Itlocatesthemodulesandequationsoftheseblackboxesinthesociotechnicalandpoliticalcontextoftheirproduction.Abibliometricanalysisfinallysketchestheoverallepistemiccommunitythatdrovemodelsintosuccessorextinction.Dominantglobalmodelsrecycleequations,modulesanddatabasestoeffectuatenarrowworlds.Theymakesmallholderfarminginvisibleinspiteofitsprevalencearoundtheworld.Theydonotaddressfoodneedsandconstructpixellatedrepresentationsofunderutilizedland.Theysystematicallyfavourlargescaleagriculturaltradeandinvestmentsinproductionandproductivity.Thisreflectsthestructureofsignificationmodelersadheretoaswellasthestructureofdominationtheyareembeddedin.Securingclientsensuresthesuccessofglobalmodelsindependentlyfromtheirvalidation.Thepaperdemonstratesthemannermodelingisasocialpracticeembeddedinpowerrelations.Consideringsimultaneouslythestructureofdominationformalizedinsidemodelsandsurroundingmodelingiscrucial.Futureresearchshouldinvestigatehowvariousactorsresorttoglobalmodelstochampiontheirgoals.Itshouldquestionthepolicyrecommendationsdrawnfromsuchmodelsandtheirrelevanceasdecisionsupporttools.WordCount:9624wordsAcknowledgements :

The authors wish to thank Agrobiosphere programme of the Agence Nationale de la Recherche for supporting the project Of Lands and Waters ANR-12-AGRO-0002-01NellyLeblondwishestothanktheEcoleNormaleSupérieureandtheresearchunitScienceinSociety(SenS)–UR1326forfunding,J.-P.CointetforhelpwithCortext,andP.B.JolyandL.Cornilleauforusefuldiscussions.Bothauthorswishtothankanonymousrefereesforusefulcommentsthatallowedthemtoimprovethearticle.Introduction Afoodregimeisdefinedasastructureofproductionandconsumptionoffoodonaworldscale,includingtheexplicitandimplicitrulesthatgovernit(Friedmann,1993).Assuch,afoodregimeisastructureofdomination,accordingtotheidiomofstructurationist

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theory(Jabri,1996).Globalmodelsaimtorepresentfoodproductionandconsumptionaroundtheworld.Theyplayapivotalroleintheconstructionofspecificpatternsofproductionandconsumption,arolewhichgoesfarbeyondrepresentingthesepatterns.Whichactorswantthesemodels,forwhichpurposes,andhowtheyusethemneedstobeexaminedatthesametimeaswestudythemannerthesemodelsattempttorepresenttheworld.The“co-production”ofscientificknowledgedesignatestheprocesswherebythelatterbothembedsandisembeddedinsocialidentities,institutions,representationsanddiscourses(Jasanoff,2004).Thisarticleinvestigatestheco-productionofglobalmodelsandthefoodregimesaswellassomeoftheconsequencesofthisco-production. Scienceisasocialpractice.Themultiplicityofknowledgeproductionsconcerningtheenvironmentoragriculturemakesthepracticeofenvironmentalscienceandthestudyoffoodproductionandconsumptionevenmorecomplexthanthatofclassiclaboratoryfields.Scientistsareunavoidablyinfluencedbytheperceivedneedsofthosewhotryto“apply”environmentalknowledge.Theyarealsoinfluencedbythewidelycirculatingknowledgeclaimsmadebyscientistsandotherswithinandoutsidetheirfields.Asaresult,scientificpracticecannotbeunderstoodinisolationfromtheprocessesofknowledgecirculationandapplication(Goldman&al,2011).

Actornetworktheory(ANT)hasarguedagainstdefiningapriorithecontextwithinwhichactorsinteract.Ithasdistinguishedentitiesandactorsonthebasisoftheirconnectionswithotherentitiesandotheractors(Latour,2007).Thishasprovedimmenselyusefultostudytheroleofagency,whetherhumanornonhuman.Itsunfortunatesideeffect,however,istoneglectpowerinteractionsamongvariousactors.Ifinteractionsarenotexaminedwithintheirwidercontext,thepowerimbalanceswithinwhichactorsevolvecangounnoticed.Weriskascribinganagencytopeopleactingunderduress,forexample.Structurationisttheoryreconcilestheconsiderationofhumanagencywiththeconsiderationofstructuresofdominationwithinsociety(Jabri,1996,2013).Bothagencyandstructureneedtobeexaminedwhenweturntohumaninteractionswiththeenvironmentsuchasoccursinagriculture(Trottier,2007).Harnessingthisapproachallowsustoshednewlightonthemannerglobalmodelscontributetotheglobalfoodregime. Theterm“blackbox”designatesascientificclaimonceithasbeenturnedintoanunquestionablescientificfact,oramachineafterithasbeenmadetowork(Latour,1987).Thispaperopens70“blackboxes”asitanalysesasampleofglobalmodelsandexaminesthecausalrelationsthatareputintoequationsinsidethem.Itlocatesthesecausalrelationsinthecontextwithinwhichthemodelswereproduced.Itquestionsthesilenceswithinthesemodels.Itshowsthespecificworldsthatsuchmodelsproduceaswellasthepolicyrecommendationstheycanorcannotleadto.Itquestionsthetypesofgovernmentembeddedinsuchmodels.Thepaperthenexaminesthelinksamongthenumerousmodelsthatoftenborrowmodulesorequationsfromoneanother.Thisshedslightonthestrugglesorextinctionofalternativemodels.Finally,thepaperturnstotheepistemiccommunitiesthathavechampionedvariousmodels.Thearticlearguesthattheco-productionofglobalmodelsandthefoodregimemeansthatmodelseffectuatetheworldfarmorethantheyrepresentit.

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Understandingthecausalrelationsembeddedwithinglobalmodelsoffoodproductionandconsumptionallowsustoidentifywhichagencycanactuallybeexertedaccordingtothesemodels.Italsoallowsustoidentifywhichactorsareeffectivelysilencedbecausetheiragencycannotberepresentedbythesemodels.Ourstudydemonstratesthatthemodelswhobecamedominantweretheoneswhoenrolledmostallies,exactlyasANTexpects.Italsodemonstratesthatthosemodelswhosucceededinenrollingmostactorswereembeddingspecificpowerinteractionswithintheirequations.Theycontributedtoconstructingastructureofsignificationthatsuitedaspecificstructureofdomination,exactlyasstructurationisttheoryexpects.Thus,successfulglobalmodelspositedtheonlypossibledevelopmentofthefoodregimeoccursthroughinternationaltradeandthroughtargetedinvestments,forexampleonthebasisofpotentialyields. Beyondsheddinglightonthemannermodelscontributetothefoodregime,thisarticleshowstheusefulnessofcombiningANTandstructurationisttheory.Thesetwoapproacheshavetendedtoshuneachotherwhentacklingsuchcomplexity.GlobalModels:OpeningtheBlackBox Whatisinsideamodel? Forthepurposesofthisarticle,amodelisunderstoodstrictlyasasetofcomputerized,mathematicalrelationsthatlinkvariableswithinfunctionspurportingtoexplain,describe,judgeorpredict.Thispaperexaminesmodelsthatdealwithfoodconsumptionandproductionattheglobalscale.Eachmodelputsforwardanumberofcausalrelationslinkingvariablessuchaseconomicdemand,agronomicpractices,climaticconditions,andpopulationgrowth,torepresenttheglobalpicture.Themannerthesecausalrelationsareformulatedandarrayedisshapedbythestructureofsignificationthemodelersfavour.Structurationisttheorydefinesastructureofsignificationastheoverallproductionofmeaningachievedbythecreationandrepeateduseofinterpretiveschemestodescribetheworldandouractionswithinit(Jabri,1996).Astructureofsignificationemphasizinginteractionsamongstatesproducesaworldscaledepictionofthefoodregime.Astructureofsignificationemphasizinginteractions,suchasclimatechange,amongamuchgreatervarietyofactorsaroundtheworldproducesaglobalscaledepictionofthefoodregime.Whichvariablesmodelerschoosetointegrateandhowtheyarrangethemintocausalrelationsallowsustodistinguishfourmaincategoriesofmodels:economicmodels,biophysicalmodels,integratedmodelsandhybridmodels,asillustratedintable1.

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Oursampleof70globalmodelswasbuiltthroughaliteraturereviewoflargescalemodelingoffoodandfarmingincludinggreyliteratureonthedifferentmodelingenterprises.Weappliedabroadsamplingmethodtakingintoaccountbothacademicmodelsandthosedevelopedbythinktanks,internationalinstitutionsandministries.Thepurposeofthissampleistocharacterizethepracticeofglobalmodelingratherthantoidentifythe“representative”models(Becker,1997).Outofaninitialsetof90models,20werediscardedbecauseoflackofinformation,limitedfocusonfoodandfarmingissues,orlimitedspatialscale.Earlywarningsystemsoffoodandfarmingandmonitoringoffoodinsecuritywerealsoexcludedbecausetheydonotofferaformalizationoffoodandfarmingsystemsbutratheracollectionofindicators.Suchrepresentationswerenotconsideredasglobalmodelsforthepurposeofourexercise. PlaceTable1here. Globaleconomicmodelsfocusontheexchangesofagriculturalproducts.Theyinitiallyreliedonasetofnationalmodules,usuallythoseofmainexportingorimportingstatessuchastheUnitedStates,CanadaorAustralia,andanadditionalmoduledescribingthe“restoftheworld”.Suchmodulesareconnectedthroughinternationalmarketfunctionswheredemandandsupplymeetandthusdeterminephysicalandeconomicequilibriumprices.Economicmodelsthusrelyonpre-existingnationalscalemodelsanddatabases.Bythe1970s,timeseriesorientedmodelshadstartedharnessingthelattertoextrapolatepasttrendsinordertopredictfuturetrends.Later,modelsbasedonageneralequilibriumtheory,relyingonpricetobalancedemandandsupplysupplantedthem. Globalbiophysicalmodelsfocusontheproductionpotentialoftheplanetfromanagronomicpointofview.Theirequationslinkphysicalvariablessuchasrainfall,temperature,andsurfacepropertiestocalculatethequantityofbiomassthatcanbeproduced.Theycanbetheorybasedanddeterminetheyieldstrictlyonthebasisofagronomytheory,ordatadriven.Inthiscase,theyrelyonthestatisticalanalysisofdatasetstoidentifythemaincontributionstothecropyields.DatabasestheFoodandAgriculturalOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)collectedacrosscountriesservedtoelaboratethefirstbiophysicalmodels.Later,theecophysiologicalmeasurementscarriedoutinexperimentalstationsaroundtheplanetandremotesensingdatafedthemfurther.

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Globalintegratedmodelsfocusontheinteractionsbetweenhumanactivities,aseconomicmodelsdo,andtheenvironment,asbiophysicalmodelsdo.Twomainsortsofintegratedmodelshaveemerged.Homogeneousmodelshavebeendeveloped,eachbyasingleteam,oftenusingsystemdynamicsmodeling.Thesehavetendednottoincludeprices,favouringkilocaloriesinstead,forexample.Theyhavealsotendedtoextinction.Heterogeneousmodelshavebeendevelopedbyseveralteams,eachcontributingitsownmoduletotheoverallmodel.Theylinkmodulesfromeachofeconomicandbiophysicalmodels,gatheringvariablesthataremeasuredindifferentunitssuchaskilocalories,dollarsorcubicmeters.Thesehavetendedtoincludeprices.Andtheyhavefaredmuchbetterthanhomogeneousmodels. Globalhybridmodelsoverlapbroadsetsoffactors,whethereconomic,physicalorsocial,aslayersofpixels.Mostlandusedatasetsintegratedinglobalmodelshavea5-arcminuteresolution,inotherwordsthepixelsrepresentaround100km²or10000ha.Hybridmodelsusethepixelasthebasicunitofanalysisinsteadofthestate.Yetthestateoftenremainsthecentralunitofdatagatheringevenwithinglobaldatasets.Therepresentationsthatemergefromthesemodelsthussometimesexpressdivisionsalongnationalbordersevenwhenthiswasnotintended. Locatingthecausalrelationsembeddedinthemodels Locatingthecausalrelations,embeddedineachcategoryofmodels,inthepoliticalandeconomiccontextwithinwhichthemodelsemerged,isimportant.Itshedsmuchlightonwhythesecausalrelationswereputforward.Onceitisenshrinedinsideanequationwithinamodel,acausalrelationbecomesessentialized,i.e.thefactthatitisasociallyconstructeddepictionofrealitynolongerappears.Instead,thiscausalrelationappearsasa“lawofnature”.Locatingtheconstructionofthemodels,togetherwiththespecificcausalrelationstheyembed,allowsamorecriticalunderstandingoftherolemodelsplayintheco-productionofthefoodregime.

Nationalresearchinstitutionsandnationalplanningagencieswereattheforefrontofthedevelopmentofeconomicmodels.TheMinistryofAgricultureForestryandFisheriesinJapanproducedtheWorldBasicFoodModelin1974andlaterIFPSIMi.TheUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture(USDA)developedtheWorldGrain-Oilseed-LivestockEconomymodel(GOL)andSWOPSIMinthe1970s.TheInstitutNationaldelaRechercheAgronomique(INRA),inFrance,developedMISS.Suchmodelsemergedthenbecausedatasetsandadequatecomputingfacilitiesbecameavailable.Researchersandplannersturnedtodatasetsproducedbynationalaccountingconcerningexports,imports,inputsandoutputsaswellastodatasetsconcerningelasticities(Joslingetal.,2010).Mostindustrialized,capitaliststatessetupsuchdatasetsinthe1950stoinformnationalpolicy.Thiswasastatedrivenprocesswhereeconomistsandcivilservantsdefinedcategoriestoanalyseandmanagetheeconomy.Keynesianismdominatedatthattime,andbotheconomistsandcivilservantsusuallyconsideredthestatewasinchargeofregulatingeconomicmarkets(Desrosières,2003).

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Thedevelopmentofglobaleconomicmodelsoccurredatatimewhencontroversyragedconcerningnationalagriculturalsubsidiesandtheliberalizationofinternationalagriculturaltrade.Severalwesterncountrieswereproducingmorethantheycouldconsumeandfavouredaliberalizationofinternationalexchanges.Americaneconomistsperceivedmodelsasapragmatictooltoguidepolicies(Benedictisetal.1991;Armatte,2010).Asthedevelopmentofthecategoriesandofthedatasetswasonlycarriedoutinnorthernstates,itfittedtheireconomicstructurewhereagricultureisindustrialisedandfoodcommercialized.Thislefttherestoftheworldinavoid,bothfromthepointofviewofdataandthedevelopmentofappropriatecategoriestodescribewidespreadactivities,suchassmallholderagriculture.However,thedominantideology,soonafterthesecondworldwar,promotedatechnologicalsolutiontothefoodproblem,onewhereagriculturaltechnologyandincreasedproductionshouldendhunger(CornilleauandJoly,2014).Informationconcerningsmallhoderagricultureseemedunimportantbecause,asarelicofthepast,itwouldsoonbetransformedintomoreefficient,scientificallydrivensystems.

Asopposedtoeconomicmodels,thatwerestatedriven,globalbiophysicalmodels

weredrivenbyinternationalinitiatives.Spurredbythe1972LimitstoGrowthreport,internationalorganisationssoughttoestablishthecarryingcapacityoftheplanet.Theyurgedscientiststoturnawayfromnationalfoodself-sufficiencyandtothinkglobally.WageningenUniversitydevelopedMOIRAin1972andtheInternationalInstituteofAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)producedthemostdetailedbiophysicalmodel,theGlobalAgroEcologicalZonesproject.FAOcollectedworldwidedatasets,establishingthefirstsatellitedatabasestomapcultivatedareasaroundtheworld.Inthe1970s,thecarryingcapacitywasbelievedtobedeterminedstrictlybyphysicalandtechnicalconstraints.Environmentalresearchlaterdemonstratedthatthecarryingcapacityofanyecosystemisalsoafunctionofhumanpractices.Biophysicalmodelspredatedthatunderstandingandthecausalrelationstheyembedreflectthis. Theriseofsystemdynamicsandthecoldwarbothfosteredtheriseofglobalintegratedmodels.Protectingtheglobalenvironmentcouldrallybotheastandwestaroundacommongoal,therebyappeasingtensions.Globalmodelingwasappealingbecausethisrepresentationoftheworlddis-embedsproductionandconsumptiondatafromtheirlocalpoliticalcontextandthusappearsapolitical.Thecausalrelationsitembedsinitsequationsaredeeplypolitical,buttheoveralltoolappearstobeneutralandtechnical(TaylorandButtel,1992).TheIIASAwasthuslocatedinVienna,aimingtogatherscientistsfromcommunistandcapitaliststates,seekingtorespondtotheLimitstoGrowthreportwiththedevelopmentofnewmodels. Globalhybridmodelsproliferatedespeciallyafter2000.Thiswasatimewhensatelliteproduceddatasetsbecameeasilyavailableforall,aswellasGeographicInformationSystem(GIS).FinancialderegulationandnewdoctrinespromotinginterventioninsidestateaffairswitheredawaytheWestphalianstructureoftheinternationalcommunity.Thestateceasedtoappearasthebasicbuildingblockandtheonlylegitimateactor.HybridmodelssuchasthefooddensitymapofFAO(Matuschke,2009)reflectedthischangeastheyreplacedaworldcomposedofacollectionofstateswithaworldcomposedofacollectionofpixels.

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Inrecentyears,allfourtypesofmodelsunderwenta“spatialturn”,i.e.theyintegratedGISandundertooktoprojecttheirresultsongridsofpixels.ThisapproachwaschampionedbytheWorldBankDevelopmentReportin2009whichinsistedoneconomicgeography.Thissystematicspatialisationhasseveralconsequences.Itprojectshomogeneityonanyarearepresentedbyonepixel,therebyerasinganythingthatexistsonlyatasmallerscale.Thegridsizebecomesextremelyimportantinmakingsmallscalefarmingsystemsinvisibleornot(Trottier,2006;Chouquer,2012).

Aswelocatedtheproductionofmodelswithintheirpoliticalandeconomiccontexts,

itisworthalsolocatingtheextinctionofsomemodels.Economicmodelsbasedonstatisticalseriesfellintodisusebecausetheycouldnotmodelpricesandsimulatemarketdynamics.WorldBankeconomistsjudgedtheminferiorbecausetheyconsideredthemarketwascentraltotheworldfoodsystemandfoodsecurity.Models,forexampleLAWM,whichincludedradicalchangessuchaslandredistributionscenarios,weredeemedunrealisticandlaterfellintooblivion(Bernardini,1974).Actually,anymodelthatcouldnottargetandsecuretheloyaltyofclients,wasdoomed.Siegmannnotedthatfindingclientsforamodelwasveryproblematicunlessitcateredspecificallytotheirpracticalconcerns,suchaseconomicforecasts(Siegmann,1985).

Whichsilenceswithinthesemodels? Anyscientificdiscourseisbasedonthesilenceofitsobject(Foucault,1972).Ignoranceispartoftheconstructionofscience,eitherasadriverorasaproduct(Proctor,2008).Scientificpractice,byselectinginformation,highlightingpathwaysorstabilizingmethods,canproducenumeroussilences,inadvertentlyordeliberately.Allfourcategoriesofmodelsembedimportantsilences.Wewillmentiononlythree,whichhavefarreachingconsequences:silenceonthecontextofthedata,silenceonnon-monetaryexchanges,andsilencesonfoodneeds. Alldatausedinthesemodelsisnecessarilydisembeddedfromitscontext.Agriculturalsystemsappearasstartingpointsandevolvingonlyunderthepressureofvariablessuchasprices,technologicalfeaturesandtradepolicies.Asaconsequenceallprevioussubsidiesandstatesupportthatshapedtheseproductionsystemsareessentialized,i.e.theyaremadetoappearasapartofnature.Inthesemodels,aCalifornianagrobusinessheirtodecadesoffreewaterchannelledthankstoinfrastructurefundedbytheAmericantaxpayerisindistinguishablefromaMalianfarmpracticingsubsistenceagriculture.Theessentialisationofsociallyconstructedphenomenapreventsmodelsfromintegratingtheirevolution. Thesemodelsusedatabasesstructuredaccordingtocategoriesthatweredefinedtoaddressagriculturalmarketinginthe1950sor1970s.Thus,foodproductionandconsumptionthatisnotbasedonmonetaryexchangesdoesnotexistwithintherepresentationproducedbythesemodels.Thetermfamilyfarmingdesignatesaformoforganizationofagriculturalproduction“characterizedbyorganiclinksbetweenthefamilyandtheproductionunitandbythemobilizationoffamilylabor,excludingpermanentemployees”(Bélièresetal,2015,p.20).Quantifyingfamilyfarmingandon-farmconsumptionisnotoriouslydifficult.However,statisticsfrom81countriesgathering84%of

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theworldpopulationshowthat85%ofagriculturalholdings,i.e.373millionholdings,arefamilyfarmsunder2ha(Bélièresetal.,2015,Sourisseau,2015).Thisisfarsmallerthantheusualgridsizeusedbyglobalmodels,around10000ha.Undeniably,thebulkofbasicfoodproductioninthesecountriesoriginatesfromfamilyfarms,withanimportanton-farmconsumptionandcontributiontothelivelihoodsofextendedfamilies.Modelsareparticularlyillequippedtorepresentthecontributionoffamilyfarming. Finally,themannerthemodelerspicturedthefoodregimeshapedtheequationswithinthemodels.Theseusuallyrelyonfoodpricesasaproxytofoodaccess.Drawingonthedatasetsproducedbynationalaccounting,theycalculatethepointatwhichdemandmeetssupply.Fooddemandisafunctionrepresentingtheamountoffoodanindividualwishestobuyatagivenprice.Thedemandexpressedbysomeonewhohasnomoneyatallisnecessarilysatisfied,evenwhenheisstarvingtodeath.Thedemandexpressedbyanindividualmatcheshisneedsonlyifthemarketpricesforsatisfyingthemareaffordableforthatperson.Foodneedsincludebothaquantitativedimension,asindividualsrequireaminimumnumberofcalories,andaqualitativedimension.Indeed,individualsrequireavarietyoffoodstoavoidmalnutritionandtomaintaintheculturalprocessesinwhichfoodisembedded.Dominantmodelsmakeneedsinvisiblebecausetheyonlyfocusondemand.Obesityisalsomadeinvisible,becausethecausalrelationsframedwithinthemodelsdonotallowtorepresentiteither.Yet,obesityisamajorproblemwithinthefoodregime.Modelsmostwidelyusedarethereforestructurallyincapableofaddressingfoodneeds. Inshort,thesilenceswithinthesemodelsareimportantandarepartoftheirstructure.Theycontributetorepresentaspecificfoodregime.Manyothersilencescouldbeidentified.Forexamplecattleraisingisoftenunder-represented,especiallyextensivepastoralism,becausethelandusedforthisactivityisdifficulttorepresent.Accesstoinfrastructurenecessaryfordistributionandexchangecapacityisrarelyrepresentedwithinthesemodels. Whichworldsdothesemodelsproduce? Allfourcategoriesofglobalmodelsconstructaveryspecificparadigmtounderstandafoodregime,therebyportrayingveryfewoptionsforitsdevelopment.Theycontributetotheco-productionofnarrowworlds. Globaleconomicandintegratedmodelsrelyonaworldstructuredintostates,whichtheyreproducewithintherepresentationstheygenerate.Hybridandbiophysicalmodelsrelyonsetsofpixelsthatdonotshowstateborders.Thus,hybridandbiophysicalmodelsrepresentEuropeasaglobalwheatbasketwhereaseconomicmodelsrepresentitasacollectionofstatesoreconomicregionsproducingandtradingwheat.Noneofthemrepresentthetradeofcropswithinstatesfromoneregionabletoproduceittoanotherunabletoproduceit,suchasthetradeofolivesbetweenthesouthandthenorthofFrance,forexample. Globaleconomicmodelsandmodulesplacestatesandexchangesamongstatesatthecentreoftheworldtheyproduce.Forexample,theBasicLinkedSystem(BLS)model,linksnationalmarketstoaworldmarket(FischerandFrohberg,1982).Throughiterations,

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theybalancenationaldemandsandsuppliesshowingdifferentelasticities.Unavoidably,thisiterationprocessconcludesthatcountrieswithalowermarginalcostofproductionwillspecialiseinthisproduction.Developmentcanonlymeanagreaterinternationalfoodtrade.Yet,currently,internationalfoodtraderepresentsonlyasmallfractionoffoodproduction.Lessthan15%ofcerealsproducedintheworldarecurrentlyexchangedonworldfoodmarkets,forexample(FAO,2015).Thesemodelsthuseffectuateaworldwhereinternationalfoodtradeisthedominantdevelopmentpathinspiteofthefactitremainsmarginal. Biophysicalandhybridmodelsproducesetsofpixels,eachofwhichisindependentfromtheother.Theyco-produceaworldwhereinterventionispossibleovervariousspaceswithoutanyneedforthesespacestomatchtheboundariesofastate.Forexample,globaldatasetsallowidentifying“climateriskhotspots”whereclimatechangeismostlikelytoimpactagriculturalyieldsnegatively(Deryngetal.,2011).Adaptationstrategiessuchasplantingnewcrops,forexample,canthentargetspecificzonesthatmightstraddleanationalborderorbeasmallsubsetofalargernationalspace(Lobelletal.,2008).Thesemodelsthuseffectuateaworldwherestatesovereigntydoesnotmattermuch. Thespatialturn,whichmostmodelsunderwentafterthe2000s,hashadanespeciallyfarreachingconsequence.Projectingdatasetsongridsofpixelshasproducedunder-utilizedlandsandvacantlands.Dominantmodelsdonotincludelandusessuchaspastoralismornon-monetarizedagricultureintheirinputsortheiroutputs.Thehomogeneityprojectedoneachpixel,usuallyrepresenting10000ha,masksagreatdiversityofresourceaccessandpropertyregimes.Finegrainrepresentationscanshowclustersoffarmssmallerthan10ha,but,forseveralreasons,suchrepresentationsarenotintegratedinglobalmodels.Firstofall,highresolutiondatasetsexistconcerningsomeregionsoftheworld,suchasEurope,butnottheentireworld.Asaresult,theirintegrationinaglobalmodelisproblematic.Moreover,theyrequireprohibitiveprocessingcapacities.Mixedpixelsallowconsideringseverallanduseswithinanareasmallerthanthatrepresentedbythepixel.However,neitheragronomy,economicorecologicaltheoryisyetcapableofintegratingthiscategoryof“mixedpixel”withinthecalculationscarriedoutbythemodels.Asaresult,thosesmallholderswhoareactiveoverascalarlevelsmallerthanthatrepresentedbyapixelaremadeinvisible.Vacantlandisthusconstructedwithinarepresentationthatshowsinterventiononanyportionofspaceaspossibleorevendesirable.

Finally,thesemodelsrepresentverypoorlytransportinfrastructure,whichiscrucialfortheexchangeofagriculturalproducts.Theworldtheyconstructisonewheretransportisnotproblematic,wherethetrade-offsbetweentransportinfrastructureandotherlanduses,whetheragriculturalorenvironmental,arenegligible.

Insummary,allfourcategoriesofmodelsproducesimplifiedworldswherefewinterventionsarepossibleandonlypartiallyassessed.Inglobaleconomicmodelsandintegratedmodelscentredonequilibriumtheory,theonlypossibledevelopmentofthefoodregimeinvolvesmonetarizedagriculturalproductionandinternationaltrade.Inglobalbiophysicalmodelsandhybridmodels,vacantyetpotentiallyproductivelandreplacelargestretchesofsmallholderagricultureandpastoralism.Theyproduceworldswhere

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interventioncanbeelaboratedonportionsofspaceanywhereontheplanet.Therefore,thepolicyrecommendationstheycanleadtoareworthexaminingtounderstandtheroletheyplayintheconstructionofthefoodregime. Howglobalmodelsconstrainthescopeofpotentialpolicyrecommandations Themechanismswherebymodelsfunctionrestrictgreatlythesortofpolicyrecommendationstheycanleadto.Theyareunable,structurally,toinformpolicythatwouldincludesmallholderagriculturebecausethecategoriestheyrelyonunder-representit.However,sincethe2000stheirpixelateddesignallowsthemtopromoteinvestmentsinanyareaonthebasisofitsbiophysicalandeconomicpotential,regardlessofitspoliticalorsocialcontext.Thecontract“Lessonsforthelarge-scaleacquisitionoflandfromaglobalanalysisofagriculturallanduse”betweentheIIASAandtheWorldBankillustratesthis.Itproducedtablesofresultsexpressedaspotentiallyavailablegoodqualitylandratedaccordingtoitsaccessibility,definedasreachablewithin6hoursofroadtravel,anditspopulationdensity(FischerandShah,2010).Thisreportassessed,indollars,theprofitabilityofinvestmentsbycalculatingtheratioofpotentialproductionoverpresentproduction. Thecausalrelationsembeddedinmodelsleadthemtorecommendpoliciesthatsometimessatisfydemandbutneveraddressfoodneeds.Economicmodelsseektobalancedemandandsupply.Theydonotseektoendhunger.Theycannotrecommendpolicytargetingthepoor,whosedemandisautomaticallysatisfiedbecausetheydon’thavemoneytospendonfood.Hybridmodelsproducepolicyrecommendationswheretheaimoffoodpoliciesistransformedfromaneffectivityprinciple,suchasendinghunger,toanefficiencystrategy,suchasmaximisingprofitabilityofinvestment.Thesemodelsareusefultoproducepolicyrecommendationstosupportinvestors.Theycannotpossiblycontributetopolicyrecommendationstosupportlivelihoodstheymakeinvisible.

Themannermalnutritionhasbeenembeddedinmodels’equationslocksthemintoproductivistpolicyrecommendations,wherebythequantityoffoodproducedshouldbeincreasedinordertodecreasemalnutrition.Yet,malnutritionandfaminesystematicallyresultfromaccessproblems,ofteninsituationswhereproductionisunproblematic(Sen1981).TheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)developedapartialequilibriummodel,IMPACT,in1995,topromoteinvestmentinagriculturalresearch.IMPACTcalculatestheproductionofafoodstuffsoastoequilibratethefooddemand,acurvedeterminedbyconsumerprices,percapitaincomeandelasticities,insteadofbythepopulation’sneeds.Themodelthusmechanicallyproducesgreaterfooddemandwhererevenuesgrowandunder-nutritionwheretheyareweak.Thispartialequilibriummodelusestwoindicatorstorepresenthunger:foodavailabilityandchildmalnutrition.Foodavailabilityisexpressedintermsofquantityoffoodperpersonaskgorcaloriesperday.Childmalnutritionisexpressedintermsofthepercentageofchildrenbetween0and5yearsofagewhoseweightwasundertwostandarddeviationsincomparisonwiththestandardsoftheWorldHealthOrganisation.ThisisillustratedinFigure2.

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Thestructureofthemodellinkschildmalnutritiontoasingleendogenousvariable:foodavailability.Theothervariablesintheequationareexogenous,inotherwords,thesevaluesarefedasentrydataintothemodel.Asaresult,hungercannotbereducedinthemodelunlessfoodavailability,understoodhereasmeaningproduction,isincreased.ThereforeIMPACTautomaticallyleadstoapolicyrecommendationofincreasingfoodproduction.

Simultaneously,IMPACTproducesvacantlands.Itsrepresentationoffoodproduction

isbasedonnationalandsubnationalagriculturalstatisticsmergedwithremotesensedcroplanddata.(Robinsonetal.2015)Bothareinadequatetograspsmallscalefarming.IMPACTalsofailstotakeintoaccounton-farmconsumptionandthelivelihoodsoftheruralpopulation.Therefore,themodelinevitablyleadstotherepresentationofunderproductiveland.Itsimultaneouslypromotespolicyrecommendationsaccordingtowhichinvestmentsshouldbemadeinagriculturetosatisfyaneverincreasingfooddemand.Thereforeitpromoteslandusescompetingwiththeonesactuallyinplace,allinthenameofendinghunger,whichitdoesn’taddress.ThesecondpartofthisarticlewillreturntoIMPACT,showingthatthisequationtorepresentmalnutritionwascarriedoverintoseveralsubsequentmodels. Whichtypesofgovernmentdothesemodelsembed? Globalmodelsplayacrucialroleinthegovernmentofthefoodregime.Thetermgovernmentalitywascoinedtodescribeatypeofpoliticalrationalitywherebytechnologyandknowledgearedeployedtoorganisehumanpopulationsinordertosteerthemintoa

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certaintypeofbehaviour(Foucault,2007).Globalmodelsparticipateinagovernmentalitythathasglobalramifications,whetherintendedornot.

ThefirsteconomicmodelswereproducedatatimewhentheUnitedStatessoughttore-routethesurplusitproducedtowardsdevelopingcountriesthroughfoodaid.Americathussoughttowardoffcommunismandpromotenationalmodelsofagro-industrializationasapathtodevelopmentinpoorcountries(McMichael,2009).Globalmodelsthatfoundclientsinthe1970ssharedthisvisionofthefoodregime.Theyfocusedoninternationalmarkets,technologies,freetradeandnationalgrowth.Theyembeddedthemechanismstheirclientswantedtoputinplace. Areglobalmodelsnowembeddinganewfoodregime?Astheyhaveswitchedfromstatetopixelastheirbasicunitsincethespatialturn,theyarecompatiblewiththecorporatefoodregimeMcMichaelargueshasnowarisen.Thelatterisbasedonfreetraderules,thepersistenceofsubsidiesinnortherncountriesanddecreasedagriculturalregulationsinsoutherncountries.Itoperatesthroughthecorporatizationofagriculture,theappropriationoflandforagro-exporting,andthedisplacementofsmall-holderstoapoolofimpoverishedlabour.Globalrepresentationsidentifyingfertilespacestoinvestandurbanpopulationstofeedeffectuatethisfoodregime. So,whatisinsideamodel?Afteropeningtheblackboxandlocatingthecausalrelationsembeddedintheirequationsaswellastheirsilences,weconcludethattheyarebothproductsofscienceandproducersofthefoodregime.Afoodregimeisapoliticalstructure,apoliticalproject.Thispoliticalprojectliesinsidethemodels,structuringthecausalrelationstheyembedintheirequations.Intheco-productionistidiom,thisistypicalofscientificdiscourses,whichsystematicallyembodybothwhattheworldisandwhatitoughttobe(Jasanoff,2005).Theimportantpointhereisthatthemodelsthatfaredwell,thosethatdidn’tdriftintoextinction,embodyafoodregimethatreliesoninternationalexchangesoffoodstuff,wheresubsistenceagriculturedoesn’texist,whereonlydemandmatters,insteadofneeds,andwheretheonlypathforwardliesininvestmentsinagriculturalproductionandproductivity.Suchmodelsconstructaworldthatwelcomeswhatisoftendescribedaslandgrabs.Domodelsbreed? Anyonewishingtorepresentworldfoodproductionandconsumptioncanpickamongavastnumberofglobalmodels.However,thisdoesnotmeanasimilarlyhighnumberofindependentassessments.

ProliferationandreproductionModelsarerarelyconstructedindependentlyfromothermodels.Theyarebasedon

similarequationsandthusrelyonsimilarhypotheses.Dominantglobaleconomicmodelsarebasedonequilibriumtheory.Theyincorporatelittlereal-timedataandsimulatepoorlythevulnerabilityofhouseholdstopriceshocks.Asaresult,noneofthemcaneitheranalyseorpredictafoodcrisis,suchasoccurredin2008(Headey,2011).Globalbiophysicalmodelsarebasedonindependentpixels,eachofwhichissupposedtobeoptimized.Theyalltendto

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promotecropsaccordingtothebiophysicalpotentialityofthelandwithineachofthesepixels,withoutconsiderationfortheknowledgeandexperiencelocalfarmersmightormightnothave.Conversely,thesemodelsdonotincluderetroactionsoflargescalemono-cropping,suchasvulnerabilitytopestsorthedependencyonthepriceofthecrop.

Globalmodelssharethesamedatasets.TheGlobalTradeAnalysisProject(GTAP)

database,whichcontainsbilateraltradeinformation,transportandprotectionlinkages,isusedbythousandsofeconomicmodelersaroundtheworld.MostmodelsalsouseFAOdatasetsforfoodproductionandconsumption.Thisrestrictsthepossibilityofassessingthequalityofthedatasetsandotherparametersastheyoutnumbergreatlytheindependentobservationsthatareavailable.Thehegemonicpositionofafewinstitutionsanddatabasesthusleadsglobalmodelsandtheirresultstobeusedinspiteoftheimpossibilitytovalidatethem.

Morecrucially,themodulesofoneglobalmodelareoftenrecycledfromonemodel

toanother.Itseemsmodelscanbreedandproduceseveralgenerationsofoffspring,eachnewmodelcarryingthesameequationsasthepreviousgenerationinthemannerlivingorganismscarryDNA.Somemodelersliketorefertotheneedto“havemodelsmarryothermodels”(Cornilleau,forthcoming).TheIMPACTmodel’sfamilytreeillustratesthisquitewell.ProducedbythethinktankIFPRIinthe1990s,itwasreusedin2002astheIMPACT-WATERmodel,afterbeinglinked(“married”)toawatermodule(WaterSimulationModel).In2009,itwasonceagaincoupled:IMPACTmarriedtheDSSATcroppingsystemmodeltoassesssomeimpactsofclimatechange.Theequationsitcarried,suchastheequationusedtocalculatechildmalnutritionexaminedearlierwerethustransmittedtoitsdescendants.ThisisillustratedinFigure3.

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Globalmodelsmayconvergeintheirresults,buttheirconsanguinitymeanstheir

convergencedoesnotindicatetheirvalidityastwomodelscannotbeusedtoachieveatriangulationconcerningagivenresult.

Alternativemodels? Thedeficienciesofdominantglobalmodels,suchastheirinabilitytoconsiderneedsinsteadofdemandandtheirstructuralinabilitytoperceiveorpredictafoodcrisisshouldspurthedevelopmentofalternativemodels,embeddingotherhypothesesandcausalrelationswithintheirequations.Soweshouldexpectalternativemodelstoemergeandchallengethedominantones.Muchscientificefforthasbeenactivelydevotedtothisgoal.Yet,no“newguard”ofmodelsispresentlyemergingtochallengesuccessfullythe“oldguard”. Partoftheexplanationfortheabsenceofalternativemodelsliesintheeconomicsofmodeling.Itisaverycostlyactivityintermsoftime,datasetsandinfrastructure.“Buildinganappliedtrademodelisacostlyexercise,whichtendstorequireseveralman-yearsofdedicatedworkondatabaseconstruction,theoryformulation,parameterestimationandcomputerimplementation.Inaddition,thesizeoftheinvestmentimpliesthatthebasicdesignchoicesaretoalargeextentirreversible.Onceaparticularroutehasbeenchosen,theswitchingcostmaybecomeprohibitive”(VanTongerenetal.,2001,pp.167-168).Oncedatasetsexistforacertaintypeofmodels,mostprobably,futuremodelswillconvergetothatstandardtype.

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Canwefindexamplesofalternativemodelsinspiteofthispathdependency?Yes,andstudyingtheirdestinyshedslightonthereasonswhyamodelrisestodominanceorbecomesextinct.TheexampleofAgrimondeisworthpausingover.AforesightstudylaunchedbytheCentredeCoopérationInternationaleenRechercheAgronomiquepourleDéveloppement(CIRAD)andINRAin2006,Agrimondeisbasedonabiophysicalmodel,Agribiom,thatestimatesproductionandneedsalongavarietyofscenarios(Dorinetal.,2011).Asopposedtomostmodels,itisnotbasedonequilibriumtheory.Itreliesonadirectmatchbetweenthekilocaloriesthatareproducedandthosethatareneeded.Severalscenariosradicallydifferentfromthoseofothermodelswereproduced.Theyincludenormativeconsiderationssuchassustainablefoodproductionandthereductionofinequalitiesinfoodandhealth.Mostimportantly,thismodelproposedtofollowtheflowofcaloriesinsteadofprices. AlthoughAgrimondedidcontributetotheglobaldebateonthefoodregime,itsinternationalimpactwasquitelimited.Thescenariosbasedonthe“sufficiencynarratives”wereespeciallydifficulttointegrateinthebroaderdebates(Labbouz,2014).Insteadofmaximisingproduction,suchscenariossetasanaimthelimitationofproductiononcerepletionhasbeenachieved,i.e.oncethefoodneedsofthepopulationhavebeensatisfied.Thiswasnotanappealingaimformanymembersofthemodelingcommunity.Moreover,enteringmodelingplatformsprovedverydifficultforthismodelbecauseithadverydifferentstructuralproperties.Regrettably,amodelthatis“toooriginal”cannotbeintegratedwhileonethatrecyclesmodules,equationsanddatasetsusedinpreviousmodelsiseasilywelcomed. Weconcludethat,yes,modelsdobreed.Theyhaveproliferatedwithinaverysmallgeneticpool.Buttheyhavenotdonethisontheirown.Theirinteractionswithmodelersanduserswerecrucialinthisprocess.Modelsmaymarry,butthesearearrangedmarriagesweremodelersarematchmakers.Thereasonsamodelmaybecomedominantorextinctarelargelyfoundintheinteractionswithintheepistemiccommunityproducingandusingmodels.Epistemiccommunitiesandtheirmodels Theterm“epistemiccommunity”designatesthenetworksofprofessionalswitharecognizedcompetenceandexpertiseinaspecificfield,whoappearlegitimatetoproducerelevantknowledgenecessarytosupportpublicpoliciesinthatfield(Haas,1992).Theeconomists,engineers,computerprogrammersandsystemsanalystswhoelaborateglobalmodelsmakeupsuchanepistemiccommunity.Theinteractionsamongthem,betweenthemandtheirclientsaswellasbetweenthemandtheirmodelshavelargelycontributedtoshapingbothwhatthesemodelsareandtheirfatesinthelargerconstructionofthefoodregime. Theriseofmodelingrelyingonsystemdynamics,economictheoryandlargedatasetstookplaceinitiallyintheUnitedStatesinavarietyoffields.Itledtoahegemonyofrationalchoicetheoryandofmodelsasaninevitabletooltomanagelargesystems.ThisprocessoccurredintheUnitedStatesinthe1970sinthefieldofwatermanagement,forexample(Espeland1998).Therisetohegemonyofthemodelingapproachwaspossiblebecauseits

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promotersmanagedtoconvinceclientsoftheusefulnessoftheirmodels.Andthiswaspossiblebecausetheirclientssharedtheworldviewexpressedbythemodelers. Whenaskedwhydoesamodelbecomedominantorextinct,amodeleroftenanswersthatmodelsthatbecomeextinctdidsobecausetheywerebadmodels.Thisbegsthequestionofwhatisabadmodel.Asopposedtohydrologicalmodels,globalfoodmodelscannotbecalibrated.Indeed,noindependentdatasetexistswhichcanallowustoconfronttheresultsgeneratedbyaglobalfoodmodel.WhenthemodelIMAGE-2wasruntosimulatetheperiodfrom1900onwards,itreflectedveryaccuratelythesituation.ButitsauthorsbecameawarethedatasetstheyusedtovalidatetheirmodelhadbeenreconstructedbymodelsstructurallysimilartoIMAGE-2(Costanzaetal.,2007).Theirexercisewasthusfutile.Globalclimatemodelsfacesimilarproblemsofdataavailability,yettheyundergonumerousvalidationprocesses(Edwards,1999;Guillemot2010).Therichnetworkofweatherstationsaroundtheworldallowclimatemodelerstoattemptavalidationprocesswhichisonlypartiallyundertakenbyglobalfoodmodelers.Thus,amodelisnot“bad”becauseitcannotbecalibratedorbecauseithasbeeninvalidated.Amodelis“bad”becausetheepistemiccommunityhasnotfoundittobeuseful.

Howdoesanepistemiccommunitysiftthroughexistingquestionsandmethodstoproducetheonesitdeemsuseful?Thissocialprocessinvolvesinteractionsbetweenmodelers,theirpeersandtheirclients.Forexample,whensixAmericanagriculturaleconomists,amongwhomTimJoslingandAlexMcCalla,createdtheInternationalAgriculturalTradeResearchConsortium(IATRC)in1978,theywerespearheadingmacroeconomicmodeling.WithfundingfromtheFordFoundation,thisthinktanktackledafundamentalproblem:theirpartialequilibriummodelsreliedonworldmarketpricesasinputs.ButtheUnitedStatesandCanada’scontributionwassooverwhelmingthattheirdomesticpoliciesdeterminedthepricesofworldcerealmarkets.Theoutputsthuscontradictedtheinputs.TheIATRCneededtodevelopanewmethod(JoslingandMcCalla,2010).ItorganisedcomparisonsbetweenseveralinternationalmodelsproducedbytheFAPRI,theUSDA,theUniversityofMichiganandtheIIASAandtheINRA.TheIATRCeconomistssharedtheconvictionthatfreetradewasnecessarilygoodandacompletelyliberalisedagriculturalsectorwouldnecessarilyfunctionbest.Theyborrowedfromothermodelsonlywhatwascompatiblewiththispremise.

AnumberoftheseAmericanmodelerspursuedtheirworkwithininternational

institutions.TimJosling,forexample,wentontoFAOtosetupdatabasesoftwoindicators:ProducerandConsumerSubsidyEquivalent(PSEandCSE).PSEestimatesthetransfersfromdomesticconsumersandtaxpayerstofarmersunderasetofagriculturalpolicies.Theseindicatorsintroducedadistinctionbetweensubsidiesdeemedtoimpactmarketspricesandsubsidiesthatdidn’timpactmarketprices.ThismethodwasthencarriedovertotheOECDin1982andledtotheMTMmodel,amacroeconomicmodelthatquantifiestheimpactofstatesupportintermsoftradedistortion.Thisprocessledtotwoimportanttransformations.First,theconceptsof“decoupling”andof“tradedistortion”becamehegemonic(Fouilleux,2000).Theyarebasedonthepremisethatagriculturalmarketsexistasautonomousentities,quiteindependentlyofthesocialandpoliticalcontextsinwhichagricultureiscarriedout.Second,internationalequilibriummodelswereeffectivelyblackboxedasthenecessarytoolstorepresentworldmarketsandassesstheeffectsofPSEandCSEintermsofprice

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distortions.Modelersineffectpenetratedtheirfutureclientswhentheyjoinedinstitutionsinthelate1970sdedicatedtopolicymaking.There,theyshapeddatasetsandapproachesthatinformedlatermodelstheseinstitutionsweretocallupon.

Modelersjoinedinternationalinstitutionsatatimewhenthelatterdeveloped

macroeconomicmodels.Thisallowedtheseinstitutionstoremainvisibleasproducersofknowledgeandtoacquirecredibilitywithinthenewparadigmofworldfoodsecurity.Inthe1970s,FAOdefinedfoodsecurityintermsofadequateavailabilityinspiteofcropfailuresorpricefluctuations.Themodelsestimatedsuchavailabilitystrictlyintermsofrevenuesandfoodprices.Thoughsuchanestimationshrinksthebroaderunderstandingoffoodsecurityasdefinedbyinternationalinstitutions,itallowedthemtotakepartinthenewparadigm.Forexample,in1993FAOdevelopedtheWFM,apartialequilibriummodelbasedontheIFPSIMmodel.Bytheendofthe1990s,aninternationalnetworkofmacroeconomicmodelingwassharingitsdatasetslocatedinFAO,theWorldBank,theUSDA,theOECD,andtheGTAP.Thisnetworkalsoshareditsparadigmaticformulationwherebyindividualutilitiesaggregateintotheglobalwellbeing,aprocessmadepossiblebytheequilibriumofnationalandinternationalmarkets.

Morerecently,institutionssuchasFAOhavechangedtheirpolicyandnowwantto

actascriticalpurchasersofstrategicallychosenpiecesofresearch,insteadofproducersofresearch.Asmodelershavebeenmigratingtointernationalinstitutionsearlyon,theclientsofmodelershavethemselvesoftenbeenmodelersforalongtime. Epistemiccommunitiesfrombibliometricanalysis Theoverallepistemiccommunityworkingonfoodandagricultureattheglobalscaleissovastanditsacademicproductionissolargethatabibliometricanalysiscanbeusefultoprovideanoverviewofitsstructure.WeusedthefreeaccesssoftwareCorTexTtoidentifynetworksofauthors,andcitedauthors.(http://www/cortext.net)Weanalysedtwocorpusesofscientificpapers,onedealingwithglobalfoodsecurity,theotherwithinternationalagriculturaltrade.WecomposedeachcorpusfromISIWebofKnowledgeovertheperiodbetween1974and2011.Weusedthekeywordsearch“WorldFoodSecurityORGlobalFoodSecurity”andidentified1763papers.Weusedthekeywordsearch“InternationalFoodTradeORInternationalTradeAgricult*”andidentified1814papers.WeusedCorTexTtoanalyzethemeta-dataofthesepublications.TheCorTexTplatformrevealsandmapsthelinksbetweenauthors,concepts,referencesandinstitutions.Thisallowedustolocatemodelersandglobalmodelsintheoverallepistemiccommunityfocusedonfoodandagricultureattheglobalscale.

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Figure4showsthemapproducedbyCorTexTusingtheinternationaltradecorpus.Theauthorsandinstitutionscitedappearinredcircles.Thebluecirclesindicatetheauthorswhopublish.Thesizeofthecirclesisproportionaltothenumberofcitationsorpublications.Thelargecirclesthusindicateinfluentialsourcesoflegitimateknowledge.InstitutionssuchasFAO,theWorldBank,theWTO,theUSDA,theOECD,theWTOandtheWHOaswellastheEuropeanCommissionthereforeappearprominentlyassourcesofknowledge.

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AnthropologicalfieldworkintheWorldBankhighlightsthisstrategy(Goldman,1997).ModelerssuchasKymAnderson,ArjenHoekstra,TimJosling,MarkRosegrant,WillMartin,andJikunHuangappearasimportantsourcesofknowledgewhobothpublishalotandarecitedalot. Althoughthiscorpuswasnotconstructedusingakeywordcontaining“model”or“modeling”,byfarthemostprominentscientistscontributinglegitimateknowledgearemodelers.Institutionsthatproducethedatasetsusedintheirmodelsalsofigureprominentlyassourcesoflegitimateknowledge.Thisistestimonytotheweightofglobalmodelsinthescientificdiscourseconcerningfoodandagriculturalinternationaltrade.Ofcourse,suchabibliometricanalysiscannotshowusersofglobalmodels,suchasprivatecorporations,whodonotpublish.ItalsoshowsdisproportionatelyauthorswhopublishinEnglishlanguagejournals.Additionally,itreflectsmetadataratherthancontentandmodelersmayalsopublisharticlesunrelatedtomodeling.Inspiteoftheselimitations,thisbibliometricanalysisdemonstratesthenumerousinteractionsbetweenmodelers,dataprovidersandinstitutionsusingglobalmodels.Suchthicknetworksareindicativeofathrivingepistemiccommunity.Conclusion Globalmodelsoffoodproductionandconsumptionappeartobeneutralandapolitical.Yet,whenweopenthemandexaminethecausalrelationstheirequationsexpress,theirpoliticalnaturebecomesapparent.Suchpowerrelationswereessentialized,i.e.madetoappearnatural,becausetheymatchtheworldviewofthemodelersandofthemodelusers.Modelsthatbecamedominantusepricesasaproxyforneeds,therebyrepresentingonlydemandinsteadofneeds.Theyuseelasticitiestocalculatethedevelopmentfoodproductionshouldfollow.Thismeansthatstates,orregions,withthelowestmarginalproductioncostforagivenfoodstuffareinevitablyinvitedtospecialiseinthatproductionandinternationaltradeisinevitablysupposedtogrow.Dominantmodelsusearepresentationofmalnutritionthatlinksittofoodproduction,therebyleadingmechanicallytorecommendagreaterproductiontosolvethisproblem.Recentdominantmodelsrepresenttheworldasaseriesofpixels.Thegridsizewithinpixelbasedrepresentationserasesallproductionunitssmallerthanapixelfromthemap.Theseareallimportantconstructionsofpowerrelations.Therepresentationssuccessfulmodelsgeneratesuitseveralfeaturesthatmatchaveryspecificstructureofdomination. Clearly,modelsthatrosetoprominencedidsobecausetheycirculatedindensenetworksofmodelersandusers.Alternativemodelsthatattemptedtotracktheflowofcalories,forexample,wereunabletointegratesuchthicknetworks.Theircontributiontothedebateconcerningtheglobalfoodregimethusremainedmarginal.Successfulmodelsembeddedandthuspromotedastructureofdominationthatsuitedtheirusers’conceptionofalegitimategovernmentoffoodproduction:onethatledtoeverincreasinginternationaltradeandshowedinvestmentsinagricultureandagriculturalproductivityassolvinghunger.

Smallholdersseemerasedfromtherepresentationofglobalfoodproductionwithindominantglobalmodels.Yet,theoverwhelmingimportanceofsmallholderfarmingisundeniablebothintermsoffoodproductionandintermsofitsrolewithincommercial

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farming.Indeed,theindividualsinvolvedincommercialfarmingaslaborers,forexample,areoftensimultaneouslyengagedinsubsistencefarming.Thestructuraldifficultyfordominantglobalmodelstoincludesmallhoderfarmingraisesthequestionoftheirusefulness.

Globalmodelsthatrosetodominanceprovedverysuccessfulatconstructinga

representationoftheworldthatlegitimizestheactivitiesofcertainactors,suchasforeigninvestorswhoclaimtodeveloppotentialyieldsinplacessufferingfrominefficientorinexistentagriculture.Theyalsolegitimizeproductivistpoliciesandthepromotionofaderegulatedinternationalmarketofagriculturalproducts.Yet,thesamemodelsshowgravedeficiencies.Theyarestructurallyunabletopredictafoodcrisissuchasarosein2008.So,thesuccessofglobalmodelsstemsfromtheircapacitytoeffectuateaworldthatmatchesboththestructureofsignificationmodelersadheretoandthestructureofdominationtheirclientschampion.

Globalfoodproductionmodelsthatrosetodominancedidsobecausetheepistemic

communitythatgeneratedthemenrolledenoughusersintoadensenetwork.Anapproachrootedinactornetworktheoryallowedustodemonstratethis.Thesemodelsembeddedveryspecificpowerrelationswithinthecausalrelationsexpressedbytheirequations.Thisledthemtopromoteaveryspecificfoodregimethatmatchesaglobalstructureofdominationtheusersofthesemodelssoughttoestablish.Anapproachrootedinstructurationisttheoryallowedustodemonstratethis.Combiningbothoftheseapproacheswasnecessarytounderstandthecontributionofglobalmodelstothefoodregimes.Theyeffectuatethefoodregimestheirchampionswishtoestablishfarmorethantheydescribetheexistingworldina“neutral”fashion.

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