PEOPLE BEHAVE IRRATIONALLY TOWARDS

CLIMATE CHANGE –What to do?

Marta Cullberg Weston

The knowledge deficit hypothesis is not the issue in the West

Most people know a fair amount but we still do not act on our information.

But there may very well be important aspects people do not know (e.g.tipping points)

It is rather a question of how information needs to be framed to reach people

and how to make them act.

Goal?

Raise awareness Attitude change Behavior change

Human fear system not adapted to modern world threats

Our ”old brain” reacts to immediate threats

Wild animal =Action now --adrenalin flows

Threat responses: 3 F

FIGHT FLIGHT FREEZE

Denial

The threat from climate change is hard for humans to handle

Diffuse /invisble /in the future/ distant No one clear action that solves the problem

Threat to ozone layer

Quick response from law makers Simple identifyable targets

Success story

”Global warming” muddied the water

Climate change more correct

Sustainable development –diffuse term for many…

Human beings are not rational

Scaring people will not work well Fear (when we see no way to fight it) may

lead to apathy= a feeling that nothing can be done

The human dilemma

1. OSTRICH PATTERNS (denial mechanisms)

2. COGNITIVE TRAPS that block good decisions

3. SOCIAL TRAPS that lead to unwise decisions

4. ECONOMIC TRAPS that make us blindfolded

A threat without a clear solution gives rise to unnerving feelings we want to avoid

Fear/anxiety Powerlessness/helplessness/apathy Guilt…(that we are responible)

Humans have an array of different denial mechanisms to avoid those unpleasant feelings and the information that cause them

1. The Denial Mechanisms

Different ways to shut our eyes(If you put your head in the sand you know something is wrong)

Many versions of denial Breakfast defence –cognitive scan --emotional denial

--give peace for the moment but bad in the long run

Diffusion of responsibility/denial of guilt (blaming others)

Denial of the content of the threat Impossible to affect/will take care of itself Technical solutions will handle it It just won’t happen!

You can recognize

Stanley Cohen: literal denial/interpretive denial (spin) /implicatory denial

Opotov & Weiss: denial of outcome and severity; denial of self-involvement

Morris Rosenberg: Selective perspectives (to keep unpleasant feelings at bay)

Denial helps us distance ourselves from the threatening reality --when we think we cannot do anything about it)

John Krosnic:

”People stopped paying attention to global climate change when they realized that there is no easy solution for it.”

We hate to feel powerless/vulnerable (we did as small children— we do not want it again)

Leads to what Robert J.Lifton calls

The absurdity of the double life

”The Nazi Doctors”

We live with a disconnect between abstract information and everyday life in order to go on with daily life

Information needs to be combinedwith solutions !

Target specific groups Provide solutions Target emotions to bypass denial

mechanisms

Emotional communication important

Emotions direct our actions.

A lot of emotional information is stored without words in the right brain --right brain communicates in images not in words.

That is why I suggest using images to reach people –as you may have noticed.

Successful Vietnam war image

Todays world --Information overload

Good at screening messages Need to reach people´s emotions Inventive storytelling Use new media (the Arabian spring/Obama) Target specific groups…

Psychological denial is increased by social denial mechanisms (examples in Norgaard)

To raise the issue of climate change in certain social situations is like swearing in the church.

”We cannot dig ourselves into a hole”

The ascetic dogma can scare many people off…

(taking the car away from people= ”no way”)

PEER SUPPORT

To get around the social pressure—important to have a peer group where you support each other and find ways to work with climate change in ways that feels worth while (alleviates powerlessness)

1B. Not only denial because of anxiety -- but resistance to relinquish ingrewn habits

Holding on to our habits

Denial of guilt/responsibility (blame is not effective) Want to keep our good self-image Pushing blame to others (between states) ”My contribution is negligable!”, ”My

neighbor drives his car…” Denies reality of limited resources

Breaking old habits takes special compliance mechanisms

Regulation Economic cost (car tolls)

Incentives: TV-serie—which family can live most

environmentally friendly Cleanest town competition

Mark Lynas:

The whole of Western society is based on denial mechanisms -- i.e. denial of the world´s limited resources

How to reduce denial mechanisms

The solution is not more information per se---but how information is given.

Too threatening information can lead to total denial (The film Undergången)

The information must point out realistic solutions

We must overcome habit hurdles by forcing change of actions through regulation and a price tag or incentives.

Information needs to point out ways to solve the problems = anxiety control

The suggested measures need to be seen as effective= control of danger

Information needs to be supplemented by regulation

Information needs to be supplemented by

societal measures

If you tell people they have a role to play in saving the planet there must be an infrastructure to make that contribution --

e.g. recycling facilities Address specific issues so you do not

overwhelm your audience… Storytelling a way to reach people…

Denial reducing mechanisms Reduce anxiety by giving suggestions for

effective solutions Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacala’s pieces of the cake

Use images to get to emotions Stop talking—take action (acceptance of the fact) Higher price tag on bad habits/ Incentives Good role models (politicians important) Discussion of life styles— gains with new style Responsibility for future generations-- their

inheritance

Positive change ex: Smoking

Politicians took action assertively (at last) Massive information campaigns Information in schools/young people Problem with climate change..do not want to

scare the young into hopelessness/ denial Do not want to pass on our burden to them

II. COGNITIVE TRAPS = IRRATIONAL DECISIONMAKING

Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky et al

(many different researchers)

Cognitive traps/cognitive bias /mental errors

Five major types of cognitive traps

CT 1. Fixation at the present = status quo bias

a) What has never happened before cannot happen! (Jews in the ghetto)

b) Problems with long term decisions/ distant consequences have a hard time to sink in (smoking)

c) Problems with gradual changes (the frog)d) System fixation (ex. liberal capitalism)

How to inform to avoid this? Images and more.

CT2. Bias when making uncertain decisions

a) Tendency to underestimate situations with low probablility (risk analysis faulty)

b) Tendency to forget risks that you lack sufficient information about / diffuse risks( 2 degree temperature change diffuse – Mark Lynas 6 degrees. Tipping points — irreversible processes)

c) Denial of effects that happen far off geographically or far off in time

Important with concrete information/images/ + linking to local situation (Vasa ski race)

CT3. Cognitive traps in estimating probablility

You make the estimate of the future probability of a situation based on how well you can perceive it.

Changes in climate are hard to show in easily grasped facts

Important with images + show what is happening where people live (local information)

CT4.Illusion of having control

a)Overestimating technical solutions

b) Sense that humans are in control

Inform how we now can influence the process =find solutions

Technical solutions take time to develop

CT5.Anchoring decisions in what is ”known”

a) Nature seen as an unlimited resource

b) Interpreting the information so it confirms people’s own ideas.

Information with number of globes needed to fill the demands + breaking up set ideas.

How to counteract cognitive biases

Images of glaciers / polar bears Mark Lynas’ 6 degrees — concretizing Environmental footprint /number of worlds Reports of consequences for own country/

community + plans to counteract the problems Action programs for many different sectors-

(Socolovs och Pacalas pieces of cake) Tying the world together –”the there” affects ”the

here” (environmental refugees, food) Be careful with scientific ”probablilities”–excuses Show alternative models of building societies Show how small change in economic model can

change things around and more….

III. SOCIAL TRAPS

A situation where a group of people act to reach a short term goal that leads to a long term loss for the group.

A good description of what we are doing right now—we are in a real social trap acting to preserve our present energy consuming life-style

III. SOCIAL TRAPS

Examples: The tunnelvision of the ant The tragedy of the commons The fate of Easter Island

ST1. THE TUNNELVISION OF THE ANT

Building on our own little home oblivious of what goes on around us.

TV programs about home makeover

Eviatar Zerubavel: social organization of denial

How to get through?

ACTIONS

LOOK UP— SCARE JUST ENOUGH RESONSIBILITY FOR GRANDCHILDREN OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER LIFESTYLE Incentives: TV-series: Living

environmentally friendly- making it a competition

New suggestions?

ST2.TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS

Garret Hardin (1968) William Forster Lloyd (1833)

GARRET HARDIN:

”Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons. ”

The tragedy of the unregulated commons

Elinor Ohstrom: With regulation this kind of trap can be avoided – people can stipulate ways to share ”a commons”

At the globe level however another issue

--no sufficient regulatory body

ST3. Fate of the Easter island

Similar to the tragedy of the commons =Depletion of limited resources leads to catastrophy

WE HAVE NOT REALIZED THAT OUR PLANET IS A LIMED RESOURCE BASE

Economic system has seen nature’s resources as goods to be exploited

Need a new perspective= if we want part of our common heritage we have to pay for it –and take care to restore

4. Economic trap

Maximization of gain without

taking environmental costs into account

=Faulty equation

New thinking within economics needed

Peter Barnes: (Capitalism 3.0)

Tragedy of the market

We are locked into an economic theory where each business is supposed to

maximize its profit – independent of the cost for the environment.

Stern report:

”Global warming is the most extensive failure for the market”

Climate change is ”bad for business” Forceful preventive actions early on can be

seen as a profitable investment

Needed: Change in economic thinking from within economic field

Tragedy of governments

Locked into a ”growth model”

Prioritizes the interest of businesses

Another model for growth--Peter Victor (see on Youtube talking about ”the folly of growth”)

We overshot the capacity of the biosphere already around 1980

People can adapt—harder to change institutions

Actions in relation to economics

Regulation, carbon tax, fee for C02pollution International agreements (post Durban) Change in economic thinking– environmental

costs included Another view on growth= sustainable

development

”Capitalism that started as a brilliant solution has become a major problem.

It is time to upgrade the operating system!”

Peter Barnes

New economic thinking is on the way

Wish:Nobel prize for sustainable economics

How can we make people wake up?

How do we inform about limited resources?

How to increase awareness?

•Need a steady flow of information•The information using images needs to address different angles, present solutions and help to overcome habits

There is a ”critical point” where enough people have accepted the fact

PARADIGM SHIFT

THE HUNDREDTH APE Paradigm shift

Lyall Watson

Galileo’s fight to prove Earth is round Doctors washing hands between patients

Strong initialt resistance to new regime/fact

Over a critical level= Established fact

SYSTEM RESISTANCE MAKES PARADIGM CHANGE SLOW AT FIRST

Potentials for change--from worry to action

I. PARADIGMSHIFTII. GROUP INSTINCT—THE HUNDREDTH APEIII. NEW GLOBAL COMMUNICATION SYSTEM

Central actors and partners

Media (information) Economists-- change in econ. thinking

Businesses Governments/politicians (political incentives) Engineers/researchers (technical

inventions) Population (change in life style)

Media

How they frame news about the environment—and the space given to info

Images and how well placed Show solutions and gains Sustain hope but also push towards change

ECONOMISTS

Problems: Market economy’s distaste for regulation Neoliberal economic theory: Profit

maximization of companies without considering evironmental costs is not adapted to reality

ECONOMIST ACTIONS

Change in economic theory/thinking from within the field

Develop/explore alternative models for ecological governance

Change in view of regulation

Business Enterprises

Need to realize that climate change is bad for business

Need to invest in clean technology Ethical programs for big businesses Political regulation and higher cost of energy Use the flexibility of the market (ex.

environmental cars)

PoliticiansProblems: Afraid to take impopular actions Wish to be re-eleced favors short terms

decisions Live in a culture of promises Their own denial mechanisms Cost for society Hesitating to put regulations in place (due to

business interests)

Actions in relation to politicians

Pressure from electorate International agreements are urgent National studies to support actions Leadership/responsibility Moratorium on geoengineering projects

Engineers/Researchers

Putting too much hope in technical solutions Time perspective—preventive actions take

time to develop (e.g. sequestering CO2) Side effects of geoengineering projects that

may enthuse engineers

Actions in relation to engineers

Money for research on environmentally friendly energy sources

Green technology development Ethical discussion of geoengineering Information of time-aspects to public

New challenge: Geoengineering

Discussion/research on ”emergency measures”

Risk that it leads to passivity in scaling down CO2 emissions

Risk of one-sided experiments that go wrong (unintended consequences)

Risk of environmental wars

UU

WE THE PEOPLEWe need help to get out of Our bad habits Denial mode Cognitive traps Social traps Economic false models

We, the people

We need regulations, incentives and political leadership in order to function more wisely but we can actually open our eyes with information that

is solution oriented that gives us hope use images to reach our emotions is targeted and realistic shows effect locally

Post Copenhagen/Durban depression

As the international agreement road has not produced results apathy has spread…

In the wake talks of geoenginneering is popping up

The crisis mood

Paradigm shifts takes time—it is under way Important not to give up even if it feels like

an uphill battle A crisis can make us wake up Unblanced systems are easier to change

Possibilities and insights

Human fear system is not adapted to modern world

We need to adapt our information to human biases Crisis can be an eye opener The group insticts of humans (The hundredth Ape) can

be used Paradigm shifts take time

Summary about information: Give information together with suggested

actions = no anxiety producing information without ideas for a solution.

Use imagery. Connect the here and the far Information needs to offset denial, cognitive

traps and hardened world views. Regulation & price tag on bad energy habits Working to offset social traps New economic thinking = e.g price tag on

carbon emissions and including costs for nature in economic calculation

REASONS FOR HOPE Many journalists and politicians have woken up More of general public are well informed China and India — glacier melting will sound alarm Regulation no longer a swear word (after

economic crisis) Even some economists realize that climate

change is ”bad for business” – but more is needed Paradigm shifts in several affected countries Technical solutions for prevention are under way

but take time New thinking around growth/commons based

governance etc

LOOK UP – it is a gift

OUR EARTH SEEN FROM SPACE