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INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker‐dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP researchis prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a‐6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely byRosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA‐member broker‐dealer.
Metals Monthly wrap INDIA
28 August 2019
Key highlights • Global crude steel production growth moderated‐ July 2019 steel production jumped
1.7% yoy to c.157mn tonnes largely aided by higher production in China and India. However; average daily production fell 4.6% mom to 5.1mn tonnes. Chinese production accounted for 54.4% of global production, up 170bps yoy but down 70bps mom.
• Steel prices falling: China, EU, India and CIS reported mom price fall of 5%, 2%, 5% and 3% respectively. Only US reported domestic price improvement of 3%.
• Iron ore and coking coal in free fall: Iron‐ore fines (63.5 Fe China export) prices fell 26% mom to US$ 88/t as supplies easing and Chinese steel production moderating. Coking coal prices (Premium HCC FOB Australia) fell 12% mom at US$ 153/t (flat yoy).
Chinese steel production and demand moderating; exports remained under check • Chinese crude steel production grew 5% yoy to 85.2mn tonnes. China’s average daily production fell sharply by 5.8% mom to 2.7mn tonne. Net steel exports at 4.7mn tonnes were down 3% yoy.
• Chinese steel inventories increased 7% mom to 13.4mn tonnes. • Chinese HRC prices fell 5% mom on escalating trade war concern and slowing demand. • Current steel‐mills profitability at CNY 84/t is just above breakeven levels. • Iron ore imports improved 1%/21% yoy/qoq to 91mn tonnes. Current inventory improved marginally to ~37 days of production at July average daily production run rate.
Indian steel prices are under pressure on slowing demand • Indian crude steel production for July grew 2% yoy to 9.2mn tonnes while consumption improved 3.5% yoy to 8.4mn tonnes. 4MFY20 steel consumption grew 5.7% to 33.3mn tonnes.
• FY19 crude steel production and steel consumption grew 3.1% and 7.5% yoy, respectively. • Net steel imports stood at 311KT for July 2019 an increase from 305KT mom and 229KT yoy. Korea (31%), Japan (18%) and China (20%) together enjoy 69% of market share.
• Current domestic HRC at Rs 37,000/tonne fell 5% mom. Non‐ferrous: Prices falling • Global aluminium production contracted 1.3% yoy to 5.4 mn tonnes, following 2.1% fall in Chinese production to 3.1mn tonnes. Global and China average daily production fell marginally (1%) mom basis.
• Aluminium prices witnessed fall of 2% mom to US$ 1,744 The gap between LME and Shanghai prices stands at US$ 245/t, US$ 2 increase on mom basis.
• Aluminium inventories on major fell 7% mom to 1.3mn tonnes. • China’s aluminium exports at 490KT fell 6%/3%% yoy/mom. • Chinese captive power smelter profitability improved CNY326/t mom to CNY 3,689/t. Chinese non‐integrated smelters profitability also improved by same amount to CNY 989/t.
• Aluminium CoP also witnessed downward trend. Alumina, anode and caustic soda mom prices fell 2%, 4% and 11%, respectively. While thermal coal prices were flat.
• Zinc prices fell sharply by 7% mom to US$ 2,258/t. Lead prices jumped 1% mom to US$ 2,083/t
• Zinc TC/remained at elevated levels of US$ 275/t. • Zinc inventories fell mom while lead inventories improved.
Indices (rebased)
Absolute Performance Change
1M 3M 6MChina HRC ‐4.9 ‐7.1 ‐15.7Europe HRC ‐2.1 0.0 ‐17.9US HRC 3.5 ‐3.2 ‐32.6Black SEA ‐3.0 4.9 ‐13.1India HRC ‐5.1 ‐7.4 ‐16.3Iron ore ‐26.4 ‐20.6 30.1Coking coal ‐12.1 ‐25.4 ‐16.4Aluminium ‐1.9 ‐1.0 ‐16.5Zinc ‐6.6 ‐16.1 ‐10.5Copper ‐4.7 ‐4.6 ‐7.7Lead 1.0 15.4 1.3Alumina ‐2.2 ‐17.5 ‐46.6Thermal coal ‐11.9 ‐21.8 ‐44.3INR ‐4.3 ‐3.0 2.4
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
Vikash Singh, Research Analyst (+ 9122 6246 4128) [email protected]
50
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170BSE Sensex BSE Metal Index
Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Global crude steel production 000 tonnes July‐18 June‐19 July‐19 YOY% MOM% 4MFY19 4MFY20 YOY% European Union (28) Austria 354 632 577 63.0 (8.7) 2,174 2,507 15.3 France 1,338 1,285 1,330 (0.6) 3.5 5,341 5,138 (3.8) Germany 3,395 3,405 3,360 (1.0) (1.3) 14,389 13,636 (5.2) Italy 2,156 2,086 2,130 (1.2) 2.1 8,555 8,390 (1.9) Netherlands 589 515 605 2.7 17.5 2,368 2,241 (5.4) Poland 809 780 780 (3.6) ‐ 3,357 3,171 (5.5) Spain 951 1,210 1,100 15.7 (9.1) 4,855 4,845 (0.2) United Kingdom 687 606 645 (6.1) 6.4 2,734 2,518 (7.9) Other E.U. 3,394 3,162 3,114 (8.2) (1.5) 13,676 13,265 (3.0) European Union 13,673 13,681 13,641 (0.2) (0.3) 57,456 55,710 (3.0) Contribution 8.9% 8.6% 8.7% 9.5% 8.8% CIS (6) ‐ ‐ Russia 6,293 6,007 6,200 (1.5) 3.2 24,545 24,033 (2.1) Ukraine 1,815 1,659 1,784 (1.7) 7.5 6,942 7,208 3.8 Uzbekistan 52 61 65 25.0 6.6 224 226 0.9 C.I.S. 8,793 8,317 8,664 (1.5) 4.2 34,297 33,983 (0.9) Contribution '%' 5.7% 5.2% 5.5% 5.6% 5.3% North America ‐ ‐ Canada 1,088 1,080 1,120 2.9 3.7 4,266 4,314 1.1 Mexico 1,754 1,414 1,440 (17.9) 1.8 6,976 6,105 (12.5) United States 7,383 7,243 7,514 1.8 3.7 28,625 29,667 3.6 North America 10,278 9,825 10,124 (1.5) 3.0 40,065 40,321 0.6 Contribution '%' 6.7% 6.2% 6.5% 6.6% 6.3% South America ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Brazil 3,086 2,823 2,449 (20.6) (13.2) 11,615 10,991 (5.4) Other South American 845 740 769 (9.0) 3.9 3,206 3,002 (6.4) South America 3,931 3,563 3,218 (18.1) (9.7) 14,820 13,992 (5.6) Contribution '%' 2.6% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.2% Africa 1,238 1,234 1,051 (15.1) (14.8) 4,780 4,949 3.5 Contribution '%' 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Iran 1,981 2,165 2,200 11.1 1.6 8,279 8,764 5.8 Qatar 224 231 230 2.7 (0.4) 916 888 (3.0) Saudi Arabia 503 425 440 (12.5) 3.5 1,856 1,709 (7.9) Middle East 2,982 3,114 3,095 3.8 (0.6) 12,179 12,439 2.1 Contribution '%' 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Asia ‐ ‐ China 81,180 87,533 85,223 5.0 (2.6) 317,236 346,879 9.3 India 9,059 9,336 9,215 1.7 (1.3) 35,441 36,784 3.8 Japan 8,420 8,789 8,387 (0.4) (4.6) 34,984 34,497 (1.4) South Korea 6,173 5,960 6,041 (2.1) 1.4 24,418 24,359 (0.2) Asia 108,977 115,643 113,254 3.9 (2.1) 428,185 458,794 7.1 Contribution '%' 70.8% 72.8% 72.3% 70.5% 72.2% Oceania 578 534 484 (16.2) (9.3) 2,270 2,101 (7.5) Total 154,009 158,936 156,697 1.7 (1.4) 607,716 635,260 4.5
Note: The 64 countries included in this table accounted for ~99% of total world crude steel production in 2018. Source: World Steel Association Global crude steel production for July 2019 jumped 1.7% yoy to 157mn tonnes largely because of higher production in China and India. However; average daily production fell 4.6% mom to 5.1mn tonnes. Chinese production accounted for 54.4% of global production, up 170bps yoy but down 70bps mom. In the first four month of FY20 global crude steel production grew by 4.5% to 635mn tonnes largely on account of higher production in China (9.3% higher yoy), India (3.8% higher yoy), and United States (3.6% higher yoy).
Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Ferrous: Global Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
July PMI fell 110bps mom to 46.5 (consecutive sixth month of contraction).
Europe steel production (mn tonne)
Euro zone July 2019 steel production at 13.6 mn tonnes were flat yoy.
Europe apparent steel consumption (mn tonnes)
EU apparent consumption fell 5.4% yoy.
Europe domestic HRC price ex‐works (USD/tonne)
Europe prices have fallen c2% on mom and 21% yoy.
Black Sea HRC Spot FoB (USD/tonne)
Black Sea HRC export prices fell 3%/13% mom/yoy.
Turkey scrap prices – (USD/tonne)
Scrap prices have also fell 3%/11% mom/yoy to US$ 372/t.
Source: Bloomberg
40
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55
60
65
Sep‐16
Nov
‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
May‐17
Jul‐1
7
Sep‐17
Nov
‐17
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8
Sep‐18
Nov
‐18
Jan‐19
Mar‐19
May‐19
Jul‐1
9‐8%‐6%‐4%‐2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
Jul‐1
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Oct‐17
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Mn tonn
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Europe Steel Production YoY growth (RHS)
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
‐
2.00
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6.00
8.00
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12.00
14.00
16.00
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Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
Europe Apparent consumption YoY Growth
300
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550
600
650
700
750
800
Dec‐16
Feb‐17
Apr‐17
Jun‐17
Aug‐17
Oct‐17
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Apr‐18
Jun‐18
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Feb‐19
Apr‐19
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US$/ton
ne
North Europe South Europe
300
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650
Jun‐17
Aug‐17
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Apr‐19
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Aug‐19
US$/ton
ne
‐
50
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250
300
350
400
450
May‐16
Jul‐1
6Sep‐16
Nov
‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
May‐17
Jul‐1
7Sep‐17
Nov
‐17
Jan‐18
Mar‐18
May‐18
Jul‐1
8Sep‐18
Nov
‐18
Jan‐19
Mar‐19
May‐19
Jul‐1
9
Page | 4 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
US PMI fell 20bps mom to 50.4 (close to 50 which separates growth to contraction).
US steel capacity utilisation (%)
Steel capacity utilizations for July improved 40/250 bps mom/yoy to 80.9%.
US HRC price (USD/tonne)
US domestic HRC prices jumped 3% mom to US$ 600/t. However; yoy prices have fallen by 33%.
US apparent consumption (mn tonne)
US apparent steel consumption for July 2019 jumped 2% yoy.
Europe EAF steel profitability (USD/tonne)
Europe EAF steel mill profitability remained flat mom. Source: Bloomberg
40
42
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46
48
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54
56
58
Sep‐16
Nov
‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
May‐17
Jul‐1
7
Sep‐17
Nov
‐17
Jan‐18
Mar‐18
May‐18
Jul‐1
8
Sep‐18
Nov
‐18
Jan‐19
Mar‐19
May‐19
Jul‐1
9 60
65
70
75
80
85
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
‐30%
‐25%
‐20%
‐15%
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
‐
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jul‐1
4
Nov
‐14
Mar‐15
Jul‐1
5
Nov
‐15
Mar‐16
Jul‐1
6
Nov
‐16
Mar‐17
Jul‐1
7
Nov
‐17
Mar‐18
Jul‐1
8
Nov
‐18
Mar‐19
Jul‐1
9
Mn tonn
es
Consumption Growth yoy
‐
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
Page | 5 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Ferrous: China
China crude steel production (mn tonnes)
Chinese crude steel production at 85.2 mn tonnes grew 5% yoy. Avg. daily production at 2.7mn tonnes fell 5.8% mom.
China net steel exports (mn tonnes)
Net steel exports at 4.7mn tonnes fell 3% yoy. 7MCY19 net steel export fell 1% yoy.
China Steel demand – (mn tonne)
China’s apparent steel demand growth has moderated in July.
Chine HRC prices – (US$/tonne)
Chinese domestic/export HRC prices fell 9%/5% yoy/mom.
Tangshan BF utilisation rate – (%)
Post sharp fall in July, blast furnace utilization started to increase again in August and currently stands at 78.5%.
China BoF Steel profitability (CNY/tonne)
Steel profitability improved of late and turned positive.
Source: Bloomberg
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Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
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Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
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Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
Mn tonn
es
0
2
4
6
8
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12
14
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
Import Export Net of Export/(Import)
‐
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
200
300
400
500
600
700
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Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
Domestic Export
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Aug‐16
Oct‐16
Dec‐16
Feb‐17
Apr‐17
Jun‐17
Aug‐17
Oct‐17
Dec‐17
Feb‐18
Apr‐18
Jun‐18
Aug‐18
Oct‐18
Dec‐18
Feb‐19
Apr‐19
Jun‐19
Aug‐19
‐400
‐200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Aug‐16
Oct‐16
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Apr‐17
Jun‐17
Aug‐17
Oct‐17
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Apr‐18
Jun‐18
Aug‐18
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CNY/tonn
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Page | 6 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
China iron ore imports (mn tonne)
Iron‐ore imports at 91mn tonnes jumped 1%/21% yoy/mom.
Share of iron‐ore exporters in Chinese ore imports (%)
Share of Australian iron‐ore fell as Brazil exports started improving.
China iron‐ore weekly inventory (mn tonnes)
Iron ore inventories at 103mn tonnes jumped 4% mom but down 24% yoy.
Iron‐ore inventory to consumption days
Consumption day improved marginally mom to 37 days (calculated on daily steel production run rate).
China import – 63.5% Fe Iron ore, CIF (USD/tonne)
Iron ore price fell sharply by 26% mom to US$ 88/t. However; on yoy, it’s still 30% higher.
China import 65% Fe pellet, CFR – (USD/tonne)
Pellet prices are also down 16%/17% mom/yoy to US$ 121/t.
Source: Bloomberg
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85
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95
100
105
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
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8
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9
Mn tonn
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7
Oct‐17
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9
%
India Australia Brazil Other countries
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130
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170
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Nov
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Mn tonn
e
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Apr‐18
May‐18
Jun‐18
Jul‐1
8
Aug‐18
Sep‐18
Oct‐18
Nov
‐18
Dec‐18
Jan‐19
Feb‐19
Mar‐19
Apr‐19
May‐19
Jun‐19
Jul‐1
9
Aug‐19
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
35
55
75
95
115
135
155
175
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
Page | 7 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Spread between 63.5% and 58% Fe imported iron ore (USD/tonne)
Gap between high vs. low‐grade iron ore further narrowed to US$ 8/t.
China coke production (mn tonne)
China coke production improved 11% yoy to 40 mn tonnes. However, average daily production fell 8% mom.
Australia premium hard coking coal price – (USD / tonne)
Coking coal prices at US$ 153/t were down 12%/16% mom/yoy.
China domestic coke spot price (USD / tonne)
Coke prices at US$ 335/ improved marginally on mom basis.
Steelhome China inventory – (mn tonne)
Inventories jumped 7% mom to 13.4mn tonnes. Source: Bloomberg
0
5
10
15
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25
30
35
Oct‐16
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Jun‐19
Aug‐19
25
27
29
31
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35
37
39
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43
Jul‐1
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Oct‐16
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Jul‐1
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8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
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Aug‐16
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‐18
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Aug‐19
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
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8
Oct‐18
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9
Long Flat
Page | 8 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Ferrous: India Crude steel production (mn tonnes)
Indian crude steel production for July improved 2% yoy to 9.2mn tonnes.
India steel consumption (mn tonne)
July steel demand grew at 3.5% yoy to 8.4mn tonnes. 4MFY20 consumption grew at 5.7% to 33.3 mn tonnes.
Net steel import/ (export) – mn tonnes
July net steel imports stood at 311KT vs 305KT mom and 229KT yoy.
County‐wise Steel import share
Chinese imports jumped sharply on mom basis.
Sponge iron price, Raipur – (Rs / tonne)
Sponge iron fell 1%/31% mom/yoy to Rs 18,100/t.
Pig iron price, Raipur – (Rs / tonne)
Pig iron prices fell 5%/20% mom/yoy to Rs 24,000/t.
Source: JPC, Steelmint
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
94
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jul‐1
6Sep‐16
Nov
‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
May‐17
Jul‐1
7Sep‐17
Nov
‐17
Jan‐18
Mar‐18
May‐18
Jul‐1
8Sep‐18
Nov
‐18
Jan‐19
Mar‐19
May‐19
Jul‐1
9
‐1.00
‐0.80
‐0.60
‐0.40
‐0.20
‐
0.20
0.40
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
Mn tonn
es
35% 40%31%
15%
22%
18%
19%11%
20%
7% 2% 5%0% 5% 4%5%
4% 4%
19% 16% 18%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
`July 18 `June 19 `July 19
Others
Germany
Ukraine
Indonesia
China
Japan
Korea
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
Page | 9 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Billet price, Raigarh (Rs / tonne)
Billet prices were flat mom but fell 28% yoy to Rs 25,800/t.
Wire Rod and HB wire price, Raipur (Rs / tonne)
Both HB wires and wire‐rod prices fell 4‐5% mom.
Domestic HRC price – Mumbai (Rs/tonne)
Domestic HRC (in warehouse) prices fell 5%/17% mom/yoy to Rs 37,000/t.
Domestic HRC premium/(discount) ‐ Rs/tonne
Domestic HRC prices are trading at a discount of c.Rs 2,044/t vs. imported Chinese steel.
NMDC Chattisgarh price (Rs/tonne)
NMDC cuts iron ore lump as well as fine prices by Rs 200/t to Rs 2,900/t and Rs 2,660/t in mid August.
Imported iron ore vs. NMDC parity (Rs/tonne)
NMDC iron ore is trading at c.37% discount to imported iron ore currently down from 45% mom.
Source: JPC, Steelmint
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
HB Wire(12 Gauge) Wire Rod(5.5 Mm)
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
‐6,000
‐4,000
‐2,000
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000 Sep‐17
Oct‐17
Nov
‐17
Dec‐17
Jan‐18
Feb‐18
Mar‐18
Apr‐18
May‐18
Jun‐18
Jul‐1
8Au
g‐18
Sep‐18
Oct‐18
Nov
‐18
Dec‐18
Jan‐19
Feb‐19
Mar‐19
Apr‐19
May‐19
Jun‐19
Jul‐1
9Au
g‐19
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jul‐1
7Au
g‐17
Sep‐17
Oct‐17
Nov
‐17
Dec‐17
Jan‐18
Feb‐18
Mar‐18
Apr‐18
May‐18
Jun‐18
Jul‐1
8Au
g‐18
Sep‐18
Oct‐18
Nov
‐18
Dec‐18
Jan‐19
Feb‐19
Mar‐19
Apr‐19
May‐19
Jun‐19
Jul‐1
9Au
g‐19
Fines Lump
‐2,000
‐1,000
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Aug‐17
Sep‐17
Oct‐17
Nov
‐17
Dec‐17
Jan‐18
Feb‐18
Mar‐18
Apr‐18
May‐18
Jun‐18
Jul‐1
8Au
g‐18
Sep‐18
Oct‐18
Nov
‐18
Dec‐18
Jan‐19
Feb‐19
Mar‐19
Apr‐19
May‐19
Jun‐19
Jul‐1
9Au
g‐19
Lump Fines
Page | 10 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Ferro Alloys Chrome ore – Barbil, Orissa (Rs/tonnes)
Chrome ore prices fell 1% mom.
Ferro chrome – Jajpur, Orissa (Rs/tonnes)
Ferro chrome prices jumped 4% mom to Rs 64, 500/t.
Manganese ore – Balaghat, MP (Rs/tonnes)
Manganese ore mom prices remained flat at Rs 12,965/t.
Ferro manganese ‐ Raipur (Rs/tonnes)
Ferro manganese prices fell 6% mom to 66,500/t.
Ferro silicon ‐ Bhutan (Rs/tonnes)
Ferro silicon prices fell marginally by 1% mom to Rs 66,000/t.
Silico manganese ‐ Raipur (Rs/tonnes)
Silico manganese prices fell 4% mom to 63,000/t.
Source: Steelmint
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
Friable 48‐50% Friable 54%+
15000
35000
55000
75000
95000
115000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Aug‐16
Oct‐16
Dec‐16
Feb‐17
Apr‐17
Jun‐17
Aug‐17
Oct‐17
Dec‐17
Feb‐18
Apr‐18
Jun‐18
Aug‐18
Oct‐18
Dec‐18
Feb‐19
Apr‐19
Jun‐19
Aug‐19
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Aug‐16
Oct‐16
Dec‐16
Feb‐17
Apr‐17
Jun‐17
Aug‐17
Oct‐17
Dec‐17
Feb‐18
Apr‐18
Jun‐18
Aug‐18
Oct‐18
Dec‐18
Feb‐19
Apr‐19
Jun‐19
Aug‐19
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
25000
35000
45000
55000
65000
75000
85000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
Page | 11 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Non‐ferrous: Aluminium Global primary aluminium production (mn tonnes)
Global aluminium production contracted 1.3% yoy to 5.4 mn tonnes. Average daily production at 174KT was down 1% mom.
Aluminium inventory on major exchanges (‘000 tonnes)
Aluminium inventories on major exchanges fell 7% mom to ~1.3mn tonnes.
China: Primary aluminium production (mn tonnes)
Chinese production de‐grew 2.1% yoy to 3.1mn tonnes. Average daily production at 98KT fell 1% mom.
China aluminium exports (‘000 tonne)
China’s aluminium exports at 490KT fell 6%/3%% yoy/mom.
Aluminium spot prices ‐ (USD / tonne)
LME prices at US$ 1,744/t fell 2% mom. The gap between LME and China prices stands at US$ 245/t, US$ 2 increase on mom basis.
Regional premiums (USD / tonne)
US and EU premiums improved marginally while Japanese premiums remained flat.
Source: Bloomberg
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Sep‐16
Oct‐16
Dec‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
Apr‐17
Jun‐17
Jul‐1
7Sep‐17
Oct‐17
Nov
‐17
Jan‐18
Feb‐18
Apr‐18
May‐18
Jul‐1
8Au
g‐18
Oct‐18
Nov
‐18
Jan‐19
Feb‐19
Apr‐19
May‐19
Jul‐1
9Au
g‐19
LME SHFE
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
`000
tonn
es
Exports 5 year avg.
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
Jul‐1
6
Sep‐16
Dec‐16
Feb‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Sep‐17
Dec‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Dec‐18
Mar‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
LME Aluminium Spot Shinghai Spot
‐
100
200
300
400
500
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
US Midwest EU Rotterdam Japan
Page | 12 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
China smelter profitability (captive power) ‐ CNY/tonne
Chinese captive power smelter profitability improved mom by CNY 326/t to CNY 3,689/t.
China smelter profitability (grid power) ‐ CNY/tonne
Chinese non‐integrated smelters profitability also improved by CNY 326/t mom to CNY 989/t.
Australia alumina FoB ‐ (USD / tonne)
Alumina prices at US$ 299/t fell 46%/2% yoy/mom.
China prebaked anodes (USD / tonne)
Anode prices fell 11%/4% yoy/ mom.
Caustic soda ‐ SE Asia, CFR (USD / tonne)
Caustic soda prices fell sharply 38%/11% yoy/mom to US$ 320/t.
Indonesia coal 6,322 Kcal ‐ (USD / tonne)
Coal mom prices were flattish. However yoy it fell by 5%.
Source: Bloomberg
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
CNY/tonn
e
Profitability ‐ Captive power Average
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Aug‐15
Nov
‐15
Feb‐16
May‐16
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
CNY/tonn
e
Profitability ‐ GRID power 8 year average
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Feb‐17
Apr‐17
Jun‐17
Aug‐17
Oct‐17
Dec‐17
Feb‐18
Apr‐18
Jun‐18
Aug‐18
Oct‐18
Dec‐18
Feb‐19
Apr‐19
Jun‐19
Aug‐19
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
‐
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
‐
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
Page | 13 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Non‐ferrous: Zinc and Lead
Zinc LME price – USD/tonne
Zinc prices fell sharply by 7% mom to US$ 2,258/t.
Major exchange zinc inventory (‘000 tonnes)
Inventories fell of late.
China zinc imports (tonnes)
Chinese July zinc imports fell 9% and 29% mom.
China zinc concentrate TC 50% CIF – USD/tonne
Treatment charges remained at elevated levels.
Lead LME prices – USD/tonne
Lead prices at US$ 2,083/t remained flattish mom as well as yoy.
Major exchange lead inventory (‘000 tonnes)
Inventories jumped sharply on mom basis.
Source: Bloomberg
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
‐
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Dec‐18
Dec‐18
Jan‐19
Jan‐19
Feb‐19
Feb‐19
Mar‐19
Mar‐19
Apr‐19
Apr‐19
May‐19
May‐19
May‐19
Jun‐19
Jun‐19
Jul‐1
9Jul‐1
9Au
g‐19
LME SHFE
‐
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Jul‐1
6
Oct‐16
Jan‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Oct‐17
Jan‐18
Apr‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Jan‐19
Apr‐19
Jul‐1
9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
Aug‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
May‐17
Aug‐17
Nov
‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Aug‐18
Nov
‐18
Feb‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
‐
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sep‐16
Nov
‐16
Feb‐17
Apr‐17
Jul‐1
7
Sep‐17
Dec‐17
Feb‐18
May‐18
Jul‐1
8
Oct‐18
Dec‐18
Mar‐19
May‐19
Aug‐19
LME SHFE
Page | 14 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Valuation CMP TP (Rs) Rating Adj EPS (Rs) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Net Debt/Equity (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) Rs FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21EFerrous Tata Steel 351 549 Buy 38.9 60.4 9.0 5.8 6.3 5.2 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.5 6.2 9.0Jindal Steel and Power 104 210 Buy ‐0.5 6.3 ‐228.9 16.6 5.3 4.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 ‐0.1 1.8JSW Steel 213 225 Sell 19.6 23.1 10.9 9.2 6.4 6.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 12.3 13.0SAIL 33 51 Buy 2.2 7.3 15.1 4.5 7.8 5.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 2.2 7.0NMDC 84 ‐ NR 13.2 11.5 6.4 7.3 3.6 4.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 0.9 0.9 14.6 12.1Non‐Ferrous Vedanta 138 205 Buy 14.8 17.4 9.3 7.9 4.2 3.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 9.0 10.6Hindustan Zinc 213 225 Neutral 16.8 17.8 12.7 11.9 7.0 6.5 ‐0.5 ‐0.5 2.7 2.7 21.2 22.5Nalco 41 42 Neutral 3.4 3.8 12.2 10.8 4.8 4.9 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 0.7 0.7 6.1 6.9Hindalco 181 253 Buy 20.7 21.8 8.7 8.3 5.8 5.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 7.5 7.3
Source: PhillipCapital India Research Estimates
Page | 15 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition
BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price
NEUTRAL ‐15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than ‐15%
SELL <= ‐15% Target price is less than or equal to ‐15%.
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any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in this report, in the past twelve months. 5. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates have not managed or co‐managed in the previous twelve months, a private or public offering of securities for
the company (ies) covered in this report. 6. PCIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party, in
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1 Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by PCIL
No
2 Whether Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the Research report
No
3 Whether compensation has been received by PCIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report No4 PCIL or its affiliates have managed or co‐managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the
company(ies) covered in the Research report No
5 Research Analyst, his associate, PCIL or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve months
No
Page | 16 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP
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