Paul ScharreFellow and Director of the 20YY Warfare Initiativewww.cnas.org/20YY

28 April 2015

The Coming SwarmRobotics and Automation on the Battlefield

20YY: Major focus of 1st year on autonomy

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Challenges the Joint Force has today:

• Range• Quantity• Cost• Deluge of data• Speed

Challenges and Opportunities

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How can autonomy help us?

Address these and other existing challenges?

Seize opportunities and present new challenges for adversaries?

Prepare for additional challenges autonomy will enable others to do to us?

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Benefits of Unmanned, or Uninhabited, Vehicles:• Physical attributes – size, weight, speed, range, endurance, maneuverability, signature

• Ability to take greater risk

Why Robotics and Autonomous Systems?

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Benefits of Autonomy:• Operate UxVs in comms-degraded or –denied environments

• Safety and reliability, cost

• SpeedONR 2014 swarm boat demo

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What is the role of robotics and autonomous systems to:

Help us do what we already do better?

Or at lower cost?

Or fight differently?

Or respond to a potential enemy capability that autonomy will enable?

Robotics and Autonomy in the Joint Force

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Mix of human-inhabited and uninhabited platforms

Mix of human and machine cognition

Robots are not combatants – Will not replace warfighters; may replace some jobs/tasks

Humans commanders remain “in the loop” for decisions about specific targets to be engaged

Role of Autonomous Systems in the Force

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At the operational level of war, what does that add up to?

Autonomous systems will enable militaries to shift from fighting as a network to fighting as a swarm.

Benefits of reconnaissance-strike swarm:• Range & persistence• Daring• Mass• Coordination & intelligence• Speed

From Network to Swarm

7ONR 2014 swarm boat demo

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Uninhabited platforms can operate with greater range and persistence on the battlefield, untethered by the limits of human enduranceRange and persistence limited by powerWith refueling (or other power solutions), ultra long endurance possible (days, weeks, months, years)

Cost savings – Fewer platforms needed in the force to sustain the same number forward in the fight

Operational savings – More assets forward in the fight

Particularly relevant in A2/AD environments when fighting from long range

Range and Persistence

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2/23/15

• Power projection in A2/AD environment

• HALE “pseudolites” for comms & PNT relay

• Forward airborne missile defense

• Persistent (low visibility) surveillance

• Pre-positioned persistence payloads

Range and Persistence - Examples

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Without a human onboard, commanders can take more risk with uninhabited platforms, allowing new concepts of operation. Cost is still a factor in assuming risk.Front wave of an assaultStand-in jamming (e.g., MALD-J)SEAD/DEADEarly threat interdiction Casualty evacuationExpendable scouts and decoys behind enemy linesClandestine reconnaissance and sabotage

Daring

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By building built at lower cost, robotic platforms can bring mass back to the fight in a significant way.

Large numbers of low-cost expendable/ attritable systems – can be built to take risk

Advantages:Disperse combat power – impose costs on enemyReplace platform survivability with swarm resiliencyGraceful degradation of combat powerSaturate enemy defenses

Mass

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Small uninhabited attritable air vehicles, launched from aircraft, ships, or undersea, to jam, deceive, recon, and strike enemy targets – hunt mobile TELs, counter-IADS

Low-cost robotic ground vehicles using robotic applique kits on existing HMMWVs, M113s

Cheap 3D printed mini-drones?

Limitations: Personnel –Shift from 1-to-1 to 1-to-many approachMaintenance – Modularity; design for systems “in a box;” multi-compo units to leverage RC maintainers

Mass - Examples

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A deluge is not a swarm. Swarming yields more than simply mass – better coordination & intelligence on the battlefield.Coordinated attack and defense

• Time-synchronized multi-vector attacks to saturate enemy defenses, combined with jamming, decoys, high-power microwaves

• Deconflict or coordinate attacks on targets• Cooperative defense to protect high value targets

Dynamic self-healing networks for reconnaissance, communications relay, adaptive logistics, intelligent minefields

Coordination & Intelligence

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Distributed sensing and attack• Distributed sensors can function like an array

• Conversely, distributed emitters can conduct precision electronic attack

Deception – large scale feints, coordinated emissions from dispersed elements

Swarm intelligence - distributed voting and information sharing for target ID, accurate geolocation / mitigation against PNT degradation, resilience to spoofing

Cooperation & Intelligence – More examples

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2/23/15

Arquilla & Ronfeldt posit evolution of doctrine:

Melee - Chaotic combat among groups with individuals fighting non-cohesively

Mass - Large formations of individuals fighting together in ranks and files (e.g., Greek phalanx)

Manuever - Multiple formations fighting together across distances (e.g., Blitzkreig)

Swarm - Large numbers of dispersed elements coordinating and fighting as a coherent whole

Is the Future the Swarm?

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From Melee to Mass

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• How do you control a swarm?

• What commands do you give it?

• How does it communicate internally to coordinate action?

Swarming Requires New C2 Paradigms

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Autonomous systems fall short of human cognitive abilities in many ways …

… But they excel at speed.

Autonomous systems can accelerate the pace of battle by:

Compressing decision cycles for human operatorsThrough decentralized swarming, allow tactical decision-making and reaction closer to the battle’s edge

By taking humans “out of the loop” entirely, can result in faster reaction times impossible for humans to match

Speed

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How do humans keep pace with an accelerating pace of operations? Inside the enemy’s OODA loop or our own?

Challenge of complex automated/autonomous systems operating in real-world, competitive environments against adaptive adversaries (hacking, spoofing)Examples from financial markets – 2010 flash crashStrategic stability concerns – “flash wars?”Human circuit breakers?Cold War examples – from fragile stability to resiliency

Role of human cognitive enhancement to keep up?

An Accelerating Pace of Battle

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Technological•Power•Communications•Autonomy

Human-machine teaming to enable optimal combined cognitive system

Predictability & controlCyber-autonomy paradox

Obstacles and Limitations

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Institutional•Resources•Doctrine•Culture

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• Unmanned -> Human-machine teaming

• Fully autonomy -> Operationally-relevant autonomy

• Driving/piloting -> Mission-level command of swarm of cooperative autonomous systems

• Few and exquisite -> Many and cheap

• Platform survivability -> Swarm resiliency

• Capability -> capability per dollar

• Hardware -> Software

7 Paradigm Shifts to Harness Autonomy

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• Information revolution is leading to smarter machines

• How will we fight with them?

• Robots don’t fight wars – people do

• But the tools of war will continue to evolve

• Urgent need for experimentation and iterative doctrine, concept, and technology development

Path Ahead

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