Paterson Analysis for Cokal

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    Investment Summary

    Company Statistics & Performance

    All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided withoutany responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof.

    36 Patersons Resources Review- May 2012

    12 Months

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    Shares on issue (m) 411.0 3mth ADT ($m) 0.37Market Cap. ($m) 135.6 Debt est ($m) 0.052 week range $0.34-$0.80 Cash est ($m) 28.7

    Year End June 30 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014FReported NPAT ($m) (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)Recurrent NPAT ($m) (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)Recurrent EPS (cents) (0.7) (1.4) (1.8) (0.5)EPS Growth (%) na na na naPER (x) (47.9) (23.8) (18.7) (63.8)EBITDA ($m) (2.6) (6.3) (7.4) 6.4EV/EBITDA (x) (41.5) (19.4) (23.3) 37.6Capex ($m) 0.0 0.0 30.6 59.8Free Cashflow (25.7) (20.1) (48.4) (70.2)FCFPS (cents) (6.7) (4.4) (10.5) (15.2)PFCF (x) (4.9) (7.6) (3.1) (2.2)DPS (cents) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Franking (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

    Investment Highlights

    Bumi Barito Mineral (BBM). CKAs maiden resource wasdefined on BBM late last year. Since then it has been tough

    going for the drill crews, hampered by consistent rainfall

    throughout the wet season (January-March). CKA is also

    waiting for its forestry exploration permit. The introduction

    of the clean and clear requirement on permits has prolonged

    the process. Clean and clear status shows that the mining

    areas have complete documents and no overlapping areas.

    CKA believe that all requirements for this permit are now

    satisfied.

    Exploration ramp up. The exploration to date on BBM hasbeen done by small manually transported drill rigs. This isdifficult and time consuming. In addition to the drilling CKA

    have had exploration crews out mapping surface geology

    uncovering coal outcrops throughout the tenement. Once

    the forestry exploration permit is granted, exploration tracks

    can be cleared and larger track mounted rigs can be used.

    CKA has plant ready to be utilised once the permit is granted

    and we believe that better equipment, easier access and the

    greater understanding of the geology will result in an increase

    in the information flow of the coal contained in BBM and an

    increase to the JORC compliant resource.

    Infrastructure developments. CKA has progressed plansfor coal export infrastructure for its Central Kalimantan

    tenements. MoUs have been signed with the regency of

    Murung Raya to develop two ports and two small scale coalfired power stations. CKA is developing the infrastructure

    with the Regency Governments Development Corporation.

    This will benefit the community and place CKA in an ideal

    place to supply infrastructure solutions to other mines to be

    developed in the area, including the BHP Adaro Juloi project.

    West Kalimantan. CKA completed the acquisition of75.2% of PT Silangkop Nusa Raya (SNR), which holds three

    exploration licences in West Kalimantan near the Malaysian

    border. The SNR Licenses cover an area of approximately

    13,000 hectares and while little work has been done recently,

    a review of the geological records of the area found that

    work done by a major Japanese coal company had identified

    coking coal bearing formations close to the western border

    of SNR. Analysis surfaces samples taken from weathered

    outcropping coal seams from areas surrounding SNR indicate

    the coal has metallurgical qualities and CKA believes that

    these outcropping seams continue into SNR.

    OUR VIEWInformation from Cokals (CKA) primary exploration project, Bumi Barito Mineral (BBM), in Central Kalimantan has been pretty

    slow since the maiden resource was defined in December 2011. This has been due to the consistent rain, which is normal for this

    time of the year, and only being able to use small manually portable drill rigs. The small rigs need to be used because CKA has

    not received the forestry exploration permit over BBM. Once the permit is granted tracks can be cleared and larger track mounted

    rigs can be used. Despite the slow drilling progress crews have been out completing surface exploration work on BBM as well

    as CKAs other Central Kalimantan tenements. CKA has also been expanding its footprint in Indonesia, acquiring 3 tenements in

    West Kalimantan and progressing infrastructure. Our CKA price target only reflects BBM production of 2.4Mtpa and we believe

    that this has upside potential once feasibility studies on BBM and infrastructure in Murung Raya are completed and other projects

    are advanced. We have applied a country risk factor of 25% on the BBM project (0.75x NAV) and pushed our start date back one

    quarter to Q1 CY2014. This has reduced our price target to $0.65/share.

    Cokal Limited CKA ($0.33)Recommendation: BUY

    Slow progress Analyst: Andrew Harrington, Matthew Trivett

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    All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided withoutany responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof.

    Patersons Resources Review- May 2012 37

    Valuation A$m A$/sh

    Bumi Barito Mineral 399.4 0.87FX Hedging 0.0 0.00Corporate (35.3) (0.08)Unpaid Capital 6.6 0.01Cash 28.7 0.06Debt 0.0 0.00

    NAV 399.5 0.87Price Target (0.75x NAV) 0.65

    Summary of Assets

    Coal Production Summary

    Resources 100% Basis (Mt)

    Mine M&I Inferred TotalBumi Barito Mineral 60 60Other Indonesian Assets 0 0Tanzania 0 0Mozambique 0 0Resources 60

    Directors

    Name Position

    Mr Peter Lynch Executive ChairmanMr Pat Hanna Executive DirectorMr Jim Middleton Managing DirectorMr Domenic Martino Non Executive DirectorMr Duncan Cornish CFO & Company SecretaryMr Chris Turvey Exploration & Resource ManagerSignificant Shareholders Shares (m) %Peter Lynch 55.0 13.4Domenic & Sandra Martino 37.0 9.0Blackrock Group 31.6 7.7Patrick Hanna 25.0 6.1Norges Bank 17.8 4.3Passport Capital 14.5 3.5Jim Middleton 10.0 2.4

    Commodity Assumptions 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

    US$/A$ 0.9869 1.04 1.03 1.00Hard Coking Coal 248.75 303 211 176Semi-soft Coking Coal 182.50 228 153 123PCI 195.00 233 158 128Export Thermal Coal 106.00 123 98 88Domestic Thermal Coal (A$/t) 45.39 49 50 51

    Production Summary 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

    Attributable Saleable Coal Production

    Bumi Barito Mineral (kt) 264FOB costs (US$/t) 89.05Price Received (US$/t) 149.25All Mines (Kt) 264Cash costs (US$/t) 89.05Price Received (US$/t) 149.25

    Profit & Loss (A$m) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

    Sales Revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.6

    Other Income 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.2Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.6Exploration Exp. 0.0 1.8 2.4 3.5Corporate/Admin 3.2 5.6 6.1 6.2EBITDA (2.6) (6.3) (7.4) 6.4Depn & Amort 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9EBIT (2.6) (6.4) (7.4) 5.6Interest 0.0 0.0 0.7 8.0Operating Profit (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)Tax expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Abnormals + Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NPAT (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)Normalised NPAT (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)

    Cash Flow (A$m) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

    Adjusted Net Profit (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)+ Interest/Tax/Expl Exp 0.0 1.8 3.2 11.5- Interest/Tax/Expl Inc 14.7 15.2 12.9 20.4+ Depn/Amort 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9+/- Other (Associates) (8.3) (0.4) 0.0 0.0Operating Cashflow (25.7) (20.1) (17.8) (10.4)- Capex (+asset sales) 0.0 0.0 30.6 59.8- Working Capital Increase 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free Cashflow (25.7) (20.1) (48.4) (70.2)- Dividends (ords & pref) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0+ Equity raised 31.3 31.6 0.0 0.0+ Debt drawdown (repaid) 0.0 0.0 30.6 57.9Net Change in Cash 5.6 11.5 (17.8) (12.3)Cash at End Period 17.2 28.7 10.9 (1.4)Net Cash/(Debt) 17.2 28.7 (19.7) (90.0)

    Balance Sheet (A$m) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

    Cash 17.2 28.7 10.9 (1.4)Total Assets 44.8 61.7 84.0 153.1Total Debt 0.0 0.0 30.6 88.5Total Liabilities 8.6 0.2 30.8 102.2Shareholders Funds 36.2 61.4 53.3 50.9RatiosNet Debt/Equity (%) na na 37.1 176.8Interest Cover (x) na na na 0.7Return on Equity (%) na na na na

    Year End June 30Cokal Limited $0.33

    (kt)

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    All Mines (Kt)

    Cash costs (US$/t) Price Received (US$/t)

    Bumi Barito Mineral

    100%