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7/29/2019 Paterson Analysis for Cokal
1/2
Investment Summary
Company Statistics & Performance
All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided withoutany responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof.
36 Patersons Resources Review- May 2012
12 Months
SharePrice(A$)
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Shares on issue (m) 411.0 3mth ADT ($m) 0.37Market Cap. ($m) 135.6 Debt est ($m) 0.052 week range $0.34-$0.80 Cash est ($m) 28.7
Year End June 30 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014FReported NPAT ($m) (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)Recurrent NPAT ($m) (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)Recurrent EPS (cents) (0.7) (1.4) (1.8) (0.5)EPS Growth (%) na na na naPER (x) (47.9) (23.8) (18.7) (63.8)EBITDA ($m) (2.6) (6.3) (7.4) 6.4EV/EBITDA (x) (41.5) (19.4) (23.3) 37.6Capex ($m) 0.0 0.0 30.6 59.8Free Cashflow (25.7) (20.1) (48.4) (70.2)FCFPS (cents) (6.7) (4.4) (10.5) (15.2)PFCF (x) (4.9) (7.6) (3.1) (2.2)DPS (cents) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Franking (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Investment Highlights
Bumi Barito Mineral (BBM). CKAs maiden resource wasdefined on BBM late last year. Since then it has been tough
going for the drill crews, hampered by consistent rainfall
throughout the wet season (January-March). CKA is also
waiting for its forestry exploration permit. The introduction
of the clean and clear requirement on permits has prolonged
the process. Clean and clear status shows that the mining
areas have complete documents and no overlapping areas.
CKA believe that all requirements for this permit are now
satisfied.
Exploration ramp up. The exploration to date on BBM hasbeen done by small manually transported drill rigs. This isdifficult and time consuming. In addition to the drilling CKA
have had exploration crews out mapping surface geology
uncovering coal outcrops throughout the tenement. Once
the forestry exploration permit is granted, exploration tracks
can be cleared and larger track mounted rigs can be used.
CKA has plant ready to be utilised once the permit is granted
and we believe that better equipment, easier access and the
greater understanding of the geology will result in an increase
in the information flow of the coal contained in BBM and an
increase to the JORC compliant resource.
Infrastructure developments. CKA has progressed plansfor coal export infrastructure for its Central Kalimantan
tenements. MoUs have been signed with the regency of
Murung Raya to develop two ports and two small scale coalfired power stations. CKA is developing the infrastructure
with the Regency Governments Development Corporation.
This will benefit the community and place CKA in an ideal
place to supply infrastructure solutions to other mines to be
developed in the area, including the BHP Adaro Juloi project.
West Kalimantan. CKA completed the acquisition of75.2% of PT Silangkop Nusa Raya (SNR), which holds three
exploration licences in West Kalimantan near the Malaysian
border. The SNR Licenses cover an area of approximately
13,000 hectares and while little work has been done recently,
a review of the geological records of the area found that
work done by a major Japanese coal company had identified
coking coal bearing formations close to the western border
of SNR. Analysis surfaces samples taken from weathered
outcropping coal seams from areas surrounding SNR indicate
the coal has metallurgical qualities and CKA believes that
these outcropping seams continue into SNR.
OUR VIEWInformation from Cokals (CKA) primary exploration project, Bumi Barito Mineral (BBM), in Central Kalimantan has been pretty
slow since the maiden resource was defined in December 2011. This has been due to the consistent rain, which is normal for this
time of the year, and only being able to use small manually portable drill rigs. The small rigs need to be used because CKA has
not received the forestry exploration permit over BBM. Once the permit is granted tracks can be cleared and larger track mounted
rigs can be used. Despite the slow drilling progress crews have been out completing surface exploration work on BBM as well
as CKAs other Central Kalimantan tenements. CKA has also been expanding its footprint in Indonesia, acquiring 3 tenements in
West Kalimantan and progressing infrastructure. Our CKA price target only reflects BBM production of 2.4Mtpa and we believe
that this has upside potential once feasibility studies on BBM and infrastructure in Murung Raya are completed and other projects
are advanced. We have applied a country risk factor of 25% on the BBM project (0.75x NAV) and pushed our start date back one
quarter to Q1 CY2014. This has reduced our price target to $0.65/share.
Cokal Limited CKA ($0.33)Recommendation: BUY
Slow progress Analyst: Andrew Harrington, Matthew Trivett
7/29/2019 Paterson Analysis for Cokal
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All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided withoutany responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof.
Patersons Resources Review- May 2012 37
Valuation A$m A$/sh
Bumi Barito Mineral 399.4 0.87FX Hedging 0.0 0.00Corporate (35.3) (0.08)Unpaid Capital 6.6 0.01Cash 28.7 0.06Debt 0.0 0.00
NAV 399.5 0.87Price Target (0.75x NAV) 0.65
Summary of Assets
Coal Production Summary
Resources 100% Basis (Mt)
Mine M&I Inferred TotalBumi Barito Mineral 60 60Other Indonesian Assets 0 0Tanzania 0 0Mozambique 0 0Resources 60
Directors
Name Position
Mr Peter Lynch Executive ChairmanMr Pat Hanna Executive DirectorMr Jim Middleton Managing DirectorMr Domenic Martino Non Executive DirectorMr Duncan Cornish CFO & Company SecretaryMr Chris Turvey Exploration & Resource ManagerSignificant Shareholders Shares (m) %Peter Lynch 55.0 13.4Domenic & Sandra Martino 37.0 9.0Blackrock Group 31.6 7.7Patrick Hanna 25.0 6.1Norges Bank 17.8 4.3Passport Capital 14.5 3.5Jim Middleton 10.0 2.4
Commodity Assumptions 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F
US$/A$ 0.9869 1.04 1.03 1.00Hard Coking Coal 248.75 303 211 176Semi-soft Coking Coal 182.50 228 153 123PCI 195.00 233 158 128Export Thermal Coal 106.00 123 98 88Domestic Thermal Coal (A$/t) 45.39 49 50 51
Production Summary 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F
Attributable Saleable Coal Production
Bumi Barito Mineral (kt) 264FOB costs (US$/t) 89.05Price Received (US$/t) 149.25All Mines (Kt) 264Cash costs (US$/t) 89.05Price Received (US$/t) 149.25
Profit & Loss (A$m) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F
Sales Revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.6
Other Income 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.2Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.6Exploration Exp. 0.0 1.8 2.4 3.5Corporate/Admin 3.2 5.6 6.1 6.2EBITDA (2.6) (6.3) (7.4) 6.4Depn & Amort 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9EBIT (2.6) (6.4) (7.4) 5.6Interest 0.0 0.0 0.7 8.0Operating Profit (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)Tax expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Abnormals + Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NPAT (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)Normalised NPAT (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)
Cash Flow (A$m) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F
Adjusted Net Profit (2.6) (6.4) (8.2) (2.4)+ Interest/Tax/Expl Exp 0.0 1.8 3.2 11.5- Interest/Tax/Expl Inc 14.7 15.2 12.9 20.4+ Depn/Amort 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9+/- Other (Associates) (8.3) (0.4) 0.0 0.0Operating Cashflow (25.7) (20.1) (17.8) (10.4)- Capex (+asset sales) 0.0 0.0 30.6 59.8- Working Capital Increase 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Free Cashflow (25.7) (20.1) (48.4) (70.2)- Dividends (ords & pref) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0+ Equity raised 31.3 31.6 0.0 0.0+ Debt drawdown (repaid) 0.0 0.0 30.6 57.9Net Change in Cash 5.6 11.5 (17.8) (12.3)Cash at End Period 17.2 28.7 10.9 (1.4)Net Cash/(Debt) 17.2 28.7 (19.7) (90.0)
Balance Sheet (A$m) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F
Cash 17.2 28.7 10.9 (1.4)Total Assets 44.8 61.7 84.0 153.1Total Debt 0.0 0.0 30.6 88.5Total Liabilities 8.6 0.2 30.8 102.2Shareholders Funds 36.2 61.4 53.3 50.9RatiosNet Debt/Equity (%) na na 37.1 176.8Interest Cover (x) na na na 0.7Return on Equity (%) na na na na
Year End June 30Cokal Limited $0.33
(kt)
(US$/t)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
0.00
40.00
80.00
120.00
160.00
200.00
All Mines (Kt)
Cash costs (US$/t) Price Received (US$/t)
Bumi Barito Mineral
100%