Past warming and ragweed season

US National Climate Assessment, 2014

Future summers warmer than warmest on record

Today’s 1 billion at risk for hunger could double by mid-century.

Battisi and Naylor, Science 2009

PRECIPITATIONClimate Variability and Change

U.S. CCSP, 2008 Globally Averaged

In Future, when it rains…it will pour.

By mid-century, Chicago region may experience 50-120% increase in CSO events (Patz et al. 2008)

At least 24 died in landslide on March 22, 2014, north of Seattle

March, 2014, was the wettest in history for Seattle

SEA LEVEL RISEClimate Variability and Change

US National Climate Assessment, 2014

Sea level affecting US populations

Schneider & Curtis, 2011

OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEALTH “CO-BENEFITS”

Adaptation and Mitigation

Reducing fossil fuel use:An opportunity for improving health

We can reduce:The 3 million annual deaths

from urban air pollution

The loss of 3.2 million deaths, from physical inactivity

Global Burden of Disease Report, 2013

• Cost of cleaner energy:

< $30/ tCO2

West et. al. 2013

• Benefits of cleaner energy:$200*/ tCO2

WHICH NUMBER IS BIGGER???

(* Range: $50 to $380)

For E. Asia, co-benefits are 10 to 70 times greater

20% fewer car trips:Change in O3 & PM 2.5

Grabow et al (2011)

20% fewer car trips:Change in O3 & PM 2.5

Grabow et al (2011)

• >500 lives saved/yr• 100,000s of Hospital admissions avoided

• >$4 billion in avoided mortality and health care costs

And if those short trips (< 5 mi. round-trip) were done by bicycle, the fitness benefit would save >700 lives /yr and another $4 billion dollars in avoided mortality costs

Active Transportation, Diabetes

National Walking and Bicycling Alliance 2014

Active Commuting and Health--Evidence Shows:

• U.S. cities with enhanced levels of active transport experience health benefits obesity and diabetes rates 20% and 23% lower (Pucher et al. 2010)

• Active commuting in Finland reduces 10-year risk of chronic heart disease events (Hu et al. 2007)

• High levels of active commuting in China result in reduced risk of colon cancer (Hou et al. 2004)

• Active Commuting has a protective effect on cardiovascular outcomes, including mortality, coronary heart disease incidents, stroke, hypertension, and diabetes (Hamer et al. 2008)

• San Francisco Bay Area study found increasing biking and walking by 20 minutes/day would reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes by 14% and decrease (Maizlish et al. 2013)

Dec. 2015 is fast approaching

Thank you. Jonathan Patz, Directorpatz@wisc.edu COP 21 to take place in Paris