Global warming and changes in geographic range of plant ... · Annual mean Winter Summer EEA Report No 4/2008 Assymetry in warming: Minimal vs. maximal temperatures; season ... URTICLIMand

Global warming and changes in geographic range of plant pests:

the case of the pine processionary moth Th m t p pit mpThaumetopoea pityocampa

Alain ROQUES Alain ROQUES INRA Zoologie Forestière

Orléans, France

Global climate warmed up by ca. 0.5ºC during the 20th century

… and is predicted to change even more in the future

EEA Report No 4/2008

Rise by 1 6°C predicted by IPCC scenariosRise by 1- 6°C predicted by IPCC scenarios

ESFA, Parma, 9 June 2011

Direct and indirect impact of global change on insect species of global change on insect species

Δ temperatureΔ rainfallΔ isolationΔ extreme events

Δ CO2, CH4, O3, NO,…

Natural i lit

y,

rate

,

Host plantsenemies Competitors

rviv

al, F

erti

velo

pmen

t rD

ispe

rsal

Insect Population

Sur

Dev

R bi & R i Z l 2010


Robinet & Roques, Integrative Zoology 2010

Is the insect response linear ? What is the biological significance of a 1°C increase i l in annual mean temperature ?

Annual mean Winter Summer

EEA Report No 4/2008

Assymetry in warming: Minimal vs. maximal temperatures; season (warming in spring, summer, autumn and winter will not have the same effects because of the insect development stages); regions, same effects because of the insect development stages); regions, …


Survive or die: the importance of an (even li ht) i i i t t tslight) increase in winter temperatures

Under temperate latitudes, low temperatures constitute a key factor limiting the range through minimal, letal thresholds of development for the various stages of the insect (egg, larva, adult)

The northern (and altitudinal) movement of the isotherms corresponding to letal minimal thresholds allow the insects to expandexpand

Climate change may remove/relocate barriers that delimit the insect rangeg

URTICLIM and ECONET-Balkans: 2 recent projects to precise PPM expansion and adaptations at the front edge


PPM, a mediterranean insect with a winter larval developmentp

A model for climate change (IPCC)


A clear expansion in latitude and altitude observed since the 1990s in Europe- Example: FrancePPM distributionbetween 1969 and 1979 PPM distributionin 2005-2006

PPM distributionin 2010-2011

PPM distributionin 2010-2011

and pioneer colonies detected between 2003 and 2011

Source: INRA Orléans

Source: CTGREF report (1980)

Orléans, northward edge defined on

Source: INRA Orléans, northward

Source: INRA Orléans, northward report (1980)8 km grid cells

northward edge defined on 8 km grid

ll

northward edge defined on 8 km grid

llcellscells


A 100 km latitudinal shift in the Paris basin since 1972 with a significant acceleration since 1992with a significant acceleration since 1992

Northwards shift near Paris

Robinet et al. 2010

Unpubl. data

- by 2.6 km/yr from 1972 to 2011- by 5.5 km/yr from 1996 to 2011

whilst mean winter temperature increased by 1°C

19711992199620052011

7

8

9

ure

(°C

)

1994-2003

by 1 C

3

4

5

6

nim

um te

mpe

ratu

0

1

2

3M

ean

of m

in

1972-1990

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar


A similar expansion in altitude in the Italian AlpsTrend of total infested area (>1 nest/tree) and mean elevation of the i f t d i th di t i t N S l f T ti t l Al t th infested area in the district Non-Sole of Trentino, central Alps, at the northern edge of the distribution range of T. pityocampa

y = 7.97x ‐ 1510R² = 0.575

18002000

1000

1200

a (m

)

Altitude Area Linear (Altitude)

- 7.0 m/yr on sunny side

- 2.9 m/yr on 1000120014001600

600

800

1000

d area

(ha)

nfested are a

shaded side

200400600800

200

400

Infested

altitud

e of i

0200

01985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010M

ean

YearBattisti et al. unpublished


Winter warming up= release of the thermal constraints preventing range expansion

TEMPERATURE

constraints preventing range expansion

>-16°C + Battisti et al. 2005

Realized Feeding Threshold (RFT)

T nest > 9°C(day)

Activation T

T air > 0°C(following night)

Potential feeding T

IMMEDIATE SURVIVAL

g

FEEDING

LONG-TERM SURVIVAL

Buffo et al. 2007

SURVIVAL


The natural expansion is clearly related to the release of thermal constraints to developmentrelease of thermal constraints to development

1992 1996 2000 2004 h1992-1996PARIS

MelunMelunPARIS

2000-2004PARIS

Melun2004

MelunPARIS

er t

o M

arch

Orléans19921996

Orléans Orléans19921996

2004

Orléans

ays

Oct

obe

ToursTours ToursTours

No more barrier:Thermal barrier: fee

ding

da

No more barrier:

All the Paris basin became favourable

Thermal barrier:

Expansion not possible

Num

ber

of

Robinet et al. , Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2007

N


Contradictory effects of climate change and role of extreme events: the 2003 heatand role of extreme events: the 2003 heat

Winter 2002- 2003: Warming up favorable to the survival of the populations all over the range

Summer 2003: Heat waves affecting differently the

HEAT

Su e 003 eat a es a ect g d e e t y t epopulations according to regions and topography

COLLAPSE

HISTORICAL

T>40°C

T>30°C Flight Eggs Larvae

Flight Eggs Larvae

Italian Al

ParisBasin

ALTITUDINAL EXPANSION

g ggAlps

Summer Autumn


The low flight capabilities of females limits the natural expansionthe natural expansion

Robinet et al. Biol. Inv. 2011


An apparent paradox:th i i f t i f t d the expansion is faster in non-forested areas

Black pine the prefered host densely planted as ornamentals along motorways Black pine, the prefered host, densely planted as ornamentals along motorways, in schools, on village places, …acts as relays for the expansionNiche saturation is more rapid than in forests and females have to move

Agricultural Beauce:A pine every Km

Mean = 1 05 km

A pine every Km

km

Mean = 1,05 km

Distance to the nearest pine

km

If ♀ flight ~ 3-5 km⇒ 98% of the pines available


Development of a model of natural expansion in the Paris basinin the Paris basin

Diffusion model using a Diffusion model using a diffusion coefficient of 3km, a mortality function based on the feeding indicator (TD>9 and TN>0), taking into account i d i i h i

< 1 pin/ha1-10 pins/ha10-50 pins/ha

pine density in the carrying capacity, and with a threshold temperature Wc=2.78°C for the mean of daily temperatures from October to March.

50-100 pins/ha> 100 pins/ha

o Octobe to a c

Model fitted with the 1981-2004 data, then tested for 2005, and finally fed with the « less worst » climatic scenario « less worst » climatic scenario of GIEC (B2: doubling of CO2 between 1975 and 2100, mean increase of annual temperature of 2.3°C) to predict until 2050

R bi 2006


Robinet, 2006

0 – 0.01 nest / pine0.01 – 1 nest / pine1 – 5 nests / pine

0 – 0.01 nest / pine0.01 – 1 nest / pine1 – 5 nests / pine5 – 10 nests / pine10 – 50 nests / pine> 50 nests / pine

5 – 10 nests / pine10 – 50 nests / pine> 50 nests / pine

TN Oct Mars - Orléans

4

5

6

Minimal temperature Oct- March (°C)

0

1

2

3

4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005





4

5

6


0

1

2

3

4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005





4

5

6


0

1

2

3

4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005





4

5

6


0

1

2

3

4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005





4

5

6


0

1

2

3

4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Comparison predicted- realized


0 – 0.01 nest / pine0.01 – 1 nest / pine1 – 5 nests / pine Robinet et al.,



2009


4

5

6


0

1

2

3

4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005





4

5

6


0

1

2

3

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016





4

5

6


0

1

2

3

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016





4

5

6


0

1

2

3

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

PARIS

Ch t

Paris intra-

FontainebleauChartres

Orléans Montargisintra-muros reached in 2025 ?

Orléans

Gien0 – 0.01 nest / pine0.01 – 1 nest / pine1 – 5 nests / pine5 – 10 nests / pine

0 – 0.01 nest / pine0.01 – 1 nest / pine1 – 5 nests / pine5 – 10 nests / pine in 2025 ?

NeversBourges



3456 Minimal temperature

Oct- March (°C)

0123

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020ESFA, Parma, 9 June 2011

Is the expansion only natural ? At least 9 isolated colonies recently detected far beyond the front

2003 (40 km)2007 (40 km)

2008(190 km)

2008(50 km)

Front 2005-2006

Were do they come from ? The expanding area or far beyond ?y p g y

How can they survive far beyond the natural front ?



DNA+ parasitoid analysis congruent Isolated colonies = mostly long-distance jumpsIsolated colonies = mostly long-distance jumps

First rank DNA microsatellites microsatellites assignements

Robinet et al Biol Inv 2011



The likely pathway: The trade of mature trees moving PPM pupae

Translocation of large trees

The trade of mature trees moving PPM pupae

Translocation of large trees (« grow » faster) is spatially moving a mini- ecosystem with nymphal stages in soil. If transported before the late 1990s, the moth offspring could not survive the harsh winter conditions in northern areas conditions in northern areas. At present, the combination of global warming and translocation of large pine trees is susceptible of large pine trees is susceptible to allow long-distance jump, the moth being considered as an invader


Global warming allow translocated PPM to establish self sustaining colonies far beyond the natural rangeself-sustaining colonies far beyond the natural range

Ob i (F h G b d )

0.45

0.549

49.2

Metz SaarebrückenKarlsruhe

49

49.2

Obernai (French- German border):

0 25

0.3

0.35

0.4

48 2

48.4

48.6

48.8

ObernaiStrasbourg

NancyKarlsruhe

48 2

48.4

48.6

48.8

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

47 6

47.8

48

48.2

Basel47 6

47.8

48

48.2

0.05 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8 8.247.6

période 1988-1997 période 1998-2007

6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8 8.247.6

Establishment impossible in the early 1990s; colonies established since stab s e t poss b e t e ea y 990s; co o es estab s ed s ce2007 from accidental transportation with black pines used for runabouts


Urban heated islands: PPM survival is even favoured in large cities once colonized favoured in large cities once colonized

Pontoise Severe 15-day cold period in the 75 8%Pontoise

2009

PARIS

Severe 15 day cold period in the Paris basin during January 2009

-12 5-1379.1%

75.8%75.9%

81.7%

2009

PARIS

2004

2009

-12

12.5

-1375.1%

74.0%2004

2009

1972

1992

1996

Orléans

-14

Nb hours where T<070.5%71.6%1972

1992

1996

Orléans1972 OrléansAbsolute minimum T

1972 Orléans

% larval survival

Robinet et al Biol Inv 2011



Slope and insolation, key factors for the altitudinal expansionfor the altitudinal expansion

Probability of presence

LowLikely

+0°C+1°C+2°C+3°C+4°C

Likely

Non évaluée (> 1900 m)

Very likely

Val Venosta (Italy)


Take- home messagesg

PPM is naturally expanding northwards and upwards with global y p g p gwarming

A large part of Europe is at present favourable to establishment but PPM colonizes it slowly (ca 5km/ yr) due to the limited flight but PPM colonizes it slowly (ca 5km/ yr) due to the limited flight capabilities of females

Colonies accidentally introduced into favourable areas with mature ytrees are likely to establish, especially in urban areas

Insolation, which may-be not affected by global warming, constitutes a threshold for nest heatingconstitutes a threshold for nest heating

The actual expansion finally results from the combination of global warming, the development of ornamental pine plantations, and the

lg p p p

increasing trade of mature trees from already- infested areas.


Thank you for your attention !

ICBI2009, Fuzhou, 2-6 November 2009

Documents

Global warming and changes in geographic range of plant ... · Annual mean Winter Summer EEA Report No 4/2008 Assymetry in warming: Minimal vs. maximal temperatures; season ... URTICLIMand