Partner 68

Center for Environmental Systems Research

University of Kassel

Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund

RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68

WaterGAP-overview-

Water usemodel

Water usemodel

Hydrology model

Hydrology model

Water AvailabilityWater Availability per 0.5° grid-cellper 0.5° grid-cell

Water WithdrawalsWater Withdrawalsper sectorper sectorper country/grid-cellper country/grid-cell

socio-economicsocio-economicdatadata

physiographicphysiographicdatadata

climateclimatedatadata

Water Stress-per basin-

Water Stress-per basin-

Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund

RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68

SOIL WATERBALANCE

SOIL WATERBALANCE

Rain & SnowmeltRain & Snowmelt

ActualEvapotranspiration

ActualEvapotranspiration

Surface Runoff &

Groundwater Recharge

Surface Runoff &

Groundwater Recharge

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-Hydrology Model-

RIVER DISCHARGE

RIVER DISCHARGE

Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund

RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68

What we have done:

•Task 6.2.1 Preparation of the model WaterGAP (completed)

•Task 6.2.4 Definition of critical impact thresholds (completed)

•Task 6.2.3/ Task 6.2.8 preliminary sensitivity analysis and

response surfaces (completed)

Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund

RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68

Sensitivity analysis and response surfaces

for 18 case study river basins

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Lule River

Po

ElbeRhine

SeineLoire

Tagus

Douro

Glomma

Thames

Danube

ShannonVistula

KemijokiAngerman

Tiber River

Guadalquivir

Vaenern Goeta

Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund

RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68

Response of water availability to climate variations

Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund

RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68

In their response, the river basins can be divided into the three

groups: northern, central, and southern European basins

Fig.: RS for northern, central, southern European catchments

Guadalquivir (Southern

Europe)

Danube (Central Europe)

Lule (Northern Europe)

Martina Weiss and Joe Alcamo ENSEMBLES GA 2006 Lund

RT6 WP6.2 – UNIK No 68

What we plan to do:

• M6.6 Sensitivity analysis and response surfaces based on ENSEMBLES climate data

• Use the threshold theory to identify crucial conditions of water resources

Points of discussion

• When will ENSEMBLES climate projections become available (and when will our results be required)

• River basins (selection of case study river basins)• Timeframe of underlying climate data ( depends on scenario

time frame – currently 1961-1990)• Format of response surface use uniform format