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Recent Economic Trends in Massachusetts: Which are critical
industries?
Navjeet SinghVice President, Research and Evaluation
Jonathan LatnerResearch and Evaluation Analyst
Page 2
Massachusetts Employment Trends
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsCES Data, Seasonally Adjusted DataNote: Recession Dates According to NBER
Employment is recovering from recession, but has not equaled its peak of Feb ‘01
A u g . , 2 0 0 63 , 2 2 4 , 0 0 0
D e c , 2 0 0 33 , 1 6 7 , 1 0 0
A p r , 1 9 9 22 , 7 8 9 , 4 0 0
F e b , 2 0 0 13 , 3 7 2 , 9 0 0
J u n e , 1 9 9 12 , 8 2 4 , 7 0 0
J a n , 1 9 9 03 , 0 3 6 , 7 0 0
D e c , 2 0 0 03 , 3 6 3 , 0 0 0
M a r , 2 0 0 33 , 1 9 2 , 2 0 0
1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6
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Do We Have Enough Workers Now? Many people are seeking work
In July ’06, 147,800 fewer employed than at peak Feb ’01
From 2000 to 2005:
36,000 fewer people
70,000 fewer people in the labor force
69,000 more “unemployed”
32,000 more working part- time
11,000 more “marginally” attached –stopped looking for jobs recently:
5,000 more “discouraged”
6,000 more stopped due to family or transportation reasons
From 2000 to 2004
47,500 more contractors or “non-employer” businesses in 2004 than in 2000
Note: Based on 12 month averages from Current Population Survey (CPS)
Source: BLS (CPS) & Census (Non-employer)
Source: Census Population Estimates
Page 4
Massachusetts Employment 2005
12,93945,031
46,900
65,618
92,678
93,161
120,207
130,836
132,651150,900
163,504
176,565
234,195
246,256
303,067
305,518
355,681458,965
Utilities
Real Estate
Arts, Entertainment
Mgmt. Of Companies
Transp. & Warehousing
Information
Other Svcs.
Government
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Admin. Svcs.
Finance
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
Hotels & Food Svcs.
Education
Manufacturing
Retail
Health Care
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsQCEW/ES-202, 2005 Annualized Data
Healthcare is the largest Industry
Page 5
Which of the industries share of employment in Massachusetts is high
67%86%
87%
157%
74%
121%
114%
76%
96%
84%
83%
124%
136%
94%
109%
89%
97%
119%
Utilities
Real Estate
Arts
Mgmt. Of Companies
Transp. & Warehousing
Information
Other Svcs.
Government
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Admin. Svcs.
Finance
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
Hotels & Food Svcs.
Education
Manufacturing
Retail
Health Care
Source: BLSQCEW, 2005 Annualized Data for MA & US
Indicates relative strength: Mgmt. Of Companies, Information, Prof. Tech. Svcs., Finance, & Healthcare
Page 6
Employment Trends (2001-2005): Since Peak Employment
-2,025145
-62
-6,307
-12,482
-24,566
7,041
-9,675
-8,435
-374
-4,880
-6,956
-12,312
8,449
-83,714
-3,365
29,200
8,855
Utilities
Real Estate
Arts, Entertainment
Mgmt. Of Companies
Transp. & Warehousing
Information
Other Svcs.
Government
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Admin. Svcs.
Finance
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
Hotels & Food Svcs.
Education
Manufacturing
Retail
Health Care
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsES-202, 2001, 2005 Annualized Data
Very few industries growing: Healthcare, Education, Hotels/ Food Services, and Other Services
Page 7
Employment Trends (2004 – 2005): More Widespread Growth
-255275
-4,253
964
-1,301
-65
2,650
339
-2,384
1,115
2,548
4,327
8,088
1,679
2,698
-7,833
-1207,703
Utilities
Real Estate
Arts
Mgmt. Of Co.
Transp. & Warehousing
Information
Other Svcs.
Government
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Admin. Svcs.
Finance
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
Hotels & Food Svcs.
Education
Manufacturing
Retail
Health Care
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsES-202, 2004, 2005 Annualized Data
Page 8
-2,025145
-62
-6,307
-12,482
-24,566
7,041
-9,675
-8,435
-374
-4,880
-6,956
-12,312
8,449
8,855
-83,714
-3,36529,200
UtilitiesReal Estate
ArtsMgmt. Of Co.
Transp. & WarehousingInformationOther Svcs.
GovernmentWholesale Trade
ConstructionAdmin. Svcs.
FinanceProf. Tech. Svcs.
Hotels & Food Svcs.Education
ManufacturingRetail
Health Care
- 2 5 52 7 5
- 4 , 2 5 39 6 4
- 1 , 3 0 1- 6 5
2 , 6 5 03 3 9
- 2 , 3 8 41 , 1 1 5
2 , 5 4 84 , 3 2 7
8 , 0 8 81 , 6 7 9
2 , 6 9 8- 7 , 8 3 3
- 1 2 07 , 7 0 3
The economy is turning around!
Employment Trends (2001 – 2005)
Employment Trends (2004 – 2005)
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsES-202, 2001, 2004, 2005 Annualized Data
Page 9
Massachusetts Job Vacancy Rate by Industry Q4, 2005
0.3%3.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.7%
2.3%
2.2%
2.4%
1.6%
1.7%
2.7%
2.2%
4.1%
2.4%
1.3%
1.5%
4.1%3.7%
Utilities
Real Estate
Arts
Mgmt. Of Co.
Transp. & Warehousing
Information
Other Svcs.
Government
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Admin. Svcs.
Finance
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
Hotels & Food Svcs.
Education
Manufacturing
Retail
Health Care
Source: MA DWDJob Vacancy Survey, Q4, 2005
Highest vacancy rates: Professional/Tech Services, Retail (only in 4Q), Healthcare, Real Estate
Page 10
Selecting “critical industries”
• What criteria to use?
• What relative importance or weight should be given to different criteria?
• When we use selected criteria what industries rise to the top?
Page 11
What criteria to use?
• What criteria can we use to select critical industries?
• Some options, rank your top five choices:– in which Massachusetts is strong (strong meaning?)– In which employment is high (how high?)– in which there has been long-term or short-term
growth– which pay well– which have entry level jobs with growth opportunities– have a lot of vacancies– are projected to grow
Page 12
Details on Professional & Technical Services
Industries & Occupations
Page 13
Professional & Technical Services
Source: MA DWDCES Data, Seasonally Unadjusted DataNote: Recession Dates According to NBER
1. Employment Peaked in December, 20002. Employment Reached bottom in March, 2003 (12% Loss)3. One of the few industries projected to grow in the next 5 years
M a r , 2 0 0 32 1 9 , 8 0 0
A u g . , 2 0 0 62 4 1 , 8 0 0
D e c , 2 0 0 02 5 1 , 1 0 0
J a n , 1 9 9 01 5 9 , 7 0 0
J u n e , 1 9 9 11 5 1 , 2 0 0
1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6
Page 14
What Defines Professional & Technical Services?
Lega l Services
Accounting Services
Arch itectural & Eg ineering Services
Specialized D esign
C om puter System s D esign
M anagem ent C onsu lting
Scien tific R & D
Advertis ing
O ther P ro fessiona l & Techn ica l Services
Pro fessional & Techn ica l Services
Pro fessional & Techn ica l Services
6 D ig it N A IC S C o de
5 D ig it N A IC S C o de
4 D ig it N A IC S C ode
3 D ig it N A IC S C ode
2 D ig it N A IC S C ode
2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
Source: Census Bureau
Page 15
What is included in Professional & Technical Services
3,164
10,702
11,409
20,063
30,853
33,948
39,719
39,788
44,575
Spec. Design
Other Prof. Sci. & Tech. Svcs.
Advertising
Accounting
Legal
Mgmt. Consulting Svcs.
Scientific R & D
Architectural & Engineering
Comp. Syst. Design
2005 Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsES-202, 2005 Annualized Data
Page 16
Professional & Technical Services Medium & Short Term Employment Trends
Employment Trends (2001 – 2005)
Employment Trends (2004 – 2005)
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsES-202, 2001, 2004, 2005 Annualized Data
- 5 4 9
1 , 4 1 5
- 2 , 8 9 2
- 6 3 8
4 7 9
1 , 0 6 0
4 , 8 9 0
- 4 8 0
- 1 5 , 5 7 1
S p e c . D e s i g n
O t h e r P r o f. S c i . & T e c h . S vc s .
A d ve r t i s i n g
A c c o u n t i n g
L e g a l
M g m t . C o n s u l t i n g S vc s .
S c i e n t i f i c R & D
A r c h . & E n g .
C o m p . S y s t . D e s i g n
2 8
4 0 2
1 4 1
7 7 5
- 1 8 6
2 , 5 6 4
1 , 3 0 9
1 , 3 3 7
1 , 7 3 1
Page 17
What are the Major Occupations in Professional & Technical Services?
Most of the occupations that work in this industry are highly educated, but there are those that do not require a Bachelor’s Degree
Source: MA DWDOccupational-Industry Crosswalk
Administrative Support22%
Computer & Mathematical
19%
Financial Operations12%
Management12%
Legal11%
Architecture & Engineering
5%
Life, Phys., & Soc. Science
5%
Other14%
Page 18
What are the Top 5 Occupations in Professional & Technical Services?
SOC-CODE SOC – Description % of the Industry
23-1011 Lawyers 8%
15-1051 Computer Systems Analysts 5%
13-1111 Management Analysts 4%
43-6012 Legal Secretaries 4%
13-2011 Accountants and Auditors 4%
Source: MA DWDOccupational-Industry Crosswalk
