LAST UPDATED: August 21, 2020Phoebe Fleming, Director of Research

ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW*COVID-19 SPECIAL EDITION*

Orlando MSA Market Overview – COVID-19 Special Edition

• The US economy experienced the “sharpest contraction in modern American history” in Q2 based on new estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth declined at an annual rate of 32.9% in Q2, due to stay at home orders and reduced spending and investment. Annualized rates, how GDP numbers are typically reported, can over or understate impacts in volatile times. Overall, the U.S. economy was 9.5 percent smaller compared to Q2 of 2019.

• This special edition of the Orlando MSA Market Overview analyzes select, high-frequency, labor market indicators, published with a one-month lag, that will signal worsening or better employment outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.

orlando.org/covid19

orlando.org/covid19

High Frequency Indicators to Watch – Orlando MSA

Unemployment Rate

Monthly

New Claims for Unemployment

Insurance

Weekly

Month to Month Employment Change

Monthly

15.3%-0.8% MoM

7,431-17.5% WoW

Week of July 25July

61,400Total Employment Change

+5.4% MoM-9.0% YoY

June-July

Weekly

4,390-40.4% WoW

August 15

MoM = Month-over-month WoW = Week-over-week

YoY = Year-over-yearSource: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass

1. 2. 3. 4.

Week to Week Job Postings

orlando.org/covid19

1) Unemployment Rate

Source: BLS, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: National August Data – Sept. 4

Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for July is 10.2% with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggesting it could be up to 1 point higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.

15.3

10.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July

Rat

e

Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2020

Orlando USA USA Possible Rate

orlando.org/covid19

1) Unemployment Rate - Counties

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: August data released September 18

10.5

12.4

16.1

20.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July

Rat

e

Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2020

Seminole Lake Orange Osceola

orlando.org/covid19

2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Source: US Dept of Labor

Next Update: Data released weekly

6,867,000

1,106,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020 7/4/2020 8/4/2020

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, USAJan. 2020- Aug. 15,2020

506,670

66,322

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020 7/4/2020 8/4/2020

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, FloridaJan. 2020- Aug. 15, 2020

607

35,595

56,030

36,453

28,548

11,307

7,721

10,256 9,006 7,431

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 4-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul 25-Jul

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSAMarch 7- July 25, 2020

Weekly Data 3 Week Moving Average

orlando.org/covid19

2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: Data released every two weeks

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 4-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul 25-Jul

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando CountiesMarch 7 - July 25, 2020

Orange Osceola Seminole Lake

orlando.org/covid19

2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

orlando.org/covid19

3) Month to Month Job Change - By Industry

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: August data released September 18

-100-3,100

0 0 200 600

-400

2004,400 2,900

56,600

-600

700

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

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1- Month Change in EmploymentJune-July 2020 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

4) Job Postings – Time Series Analysis

orlando.org/covid19

7,856

5,303

4,736

4,226 4,219

3,507 3,718

4,634 4,281 4,107

5,475 5,4795,726

6,221

7,430

5,385

4,368

6,001 5,925

5,556

7,359

4,390

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Total Online Job AdsOrlando MSA, by Week Posted

Source: Burning Glass

orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning Glass

4) Job Postings – Top Industries

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Top 10 Posting IndustriesOrlando MSA, by Week Posted

Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services

Retail Trade Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Finance and Insurance Manufacturing

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Information

Educational Services Transportation and Warehousing

2,427

2,309

2,299

1,759

1,591

1,292

1,213

1,205

1,004

982

974

926

909

798

783

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Registered Nurse

Retail Sales Associate

Sales Representative

Customer Service Representative

Tractor-Trailer Truck Driver

Retail Store Manager / Supervisor

Software Developer / Engineer

Office / Administrative Assistant

Laborer / Warehouse Worker

Building and General Maintenance Technician

Physician

Security Officer

Food Service Team Member

Janitor / Cleaner

Restaurant / Food Service Manager

Jobs in Greatest DemandOrlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending August 19, 2020

4) Job Postings – Top Jobs in Demand

orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning-Glass

878

757

681

521

500

401

346

310

231

205

197

172

161

157

153

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Adventhealth

Lockheed Martin Corporation

Orlando Regional Healthcare

Lowe's Companies, Inc

Anthem Blue Cross

Orange County Public Schools

School District Of Osceola County

Hospital Corporation of America

Deloitte

Allied Universal

Healthcare Travelers

Walmart / Sam's

The Gypsy Nurse

CVS Health

Osceola Regional Medical Center

Employers With Most Job OpeningsOrlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending August 19, 2020

4) Job Postings – Top Employers

orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning Glass

Key Takeaways

• In July, the USA unemployment rate fell modestly to 10.2% while Florida saw an increase to a rate of 11.5%. Higher than both theState and the Nation, the Orlando MSA unemployment rate did at least fall 0.8 percentage points to 15.3% (slide 4). Orange, Osceola and Lake County all saw a decrease in their unemployment rate while Seminole was the only county to see a slight increase (slide 5). This fall is due to 61,400 jobs added in the region from June to July, mainly in the Leisure and Hospitalityindustry (slide 9). Jobs were also added within Professional and Business Services and Educational and Heath Services. Construction, however, was the only industry to experience a significant loss of jobs in the Orlando MSA, with total employment declining by more than 3,000 from June to July.

• New claims for unemployment insurance saw an increase in both Florida and the USA (slide 6). Although number of USA claims had fallen below 1 million last week since it was first recorded at 2.9 million in late March, claims this week increased to over 1 million. Overall, in Florida there has been a large drop in new claims for unemployment insurance since July 11th. For the first time in weeks, Florida saw an increase in claims the week ending August 15th. In the Orlando MSA, claims for unemployment are slowly declining, with a three-week moving average of roughly 9,000 claims per week. However, the most recent claims data available at the county level was posted July 25th by the FL Department of Economic Opportunity.

• Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. In the most recent week, job postings saw asharp decrease of forty percent. Slide 11 shows this information broken out by top industries. Posting activity declined in retail trade, education and health care, the major contributor to movements in overall posting activity. Employers in the public education and hospital and health care industries continue to be the major job posters in the region. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze.