Opportunities in Dry Bulk Shipping

City University Business School

4th Athens Triennial Meeting

November 11, 2017

Nikolaos Triantafyllakis

DRY BULK DEMAND – SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

NEW DEVELOPMENTS – IRON ORE TRADES

Iron Ore

AUSTRALIA

HERB ELLIOTTPORT (NEW)

CAPE LAMBERT(EXPANSION)

ANKETELLPOINT (NEW)

PORT HEDLAND (EXPANSION)

DAMPIER(EXPANSION)

BRAZIL

PONTA DA MADEIRA(EXPANSION)

TUBARAO (EXPANSION)

SEPETIBA BAY (EXPANSION)

ACU SUPERPORT (NEW)

ESPIRITOSANTOS (NEW)

WEST AFRICA

NOUADHIBOU MAURITANIA (ZOUERAT MINE)

SALDANHA, SOUTH AFRICA (SISHEN, KHUMANI, KOLOMELA MINES)LOLABE,CAMEROON (MBALAM MINE)

POINTE NOIRE, REPUBLIC OF CONGO (MAYOKO MINE)

CAP SANTA CLARA, GABON (BELINGA MINE)

FORECARIAH, GUINEA + DIDIA, LIBERIA (SIMANDOU PROJECT)

BUCHANAN, LIBERIA (NIMBA, DIEVE, YEKEPA MINES)

MAKATAN PORT, GUINEA (KALIA, FORECARIAH MINES)

PEPEL PORT, SIERRA LEONE (TONKOLILI + MARAMPA MINES)

ALADJA PORT, NIGERIA (ITAKIE MINE)

NAGA FRIA PORT, NAMIMBIA

OTHER REGIONS

BAFFIN ISLAND, CANADA, NORTH ARCTIC

PORT OF SOHAR, OMAN

SUBIC BAY, PHILIPPINES

RICHARDS BAY, SOUTH AFRICA (EXPANSION)

ORISSA MINING, INDIA

NARVIK, NORWAY (EXPANSION)

LULEA, SWEDEN (EXPANSION)

HUASCO PORT, CHILE (EXPANSION)

CARAJAS MINE, AMAZON RIVER BRAZIL (NEW)

NEW DEVELOPMENTS – COAL TRADES

AUSTRALIA

ABBOT POINT, Galilee Basin (NEW)

NEWCASTLE (EXPANSION)

GLADSTONE (WIGGINS ISLAND) (EXPANSION)

PORT KEMBLA (EXPANSION)

USA

MISSISSIPPIRIVER– BURNSIDE TERMINAL (EXPANSION)

HOUSTON (EXPANSION)

MOZAMBIQUE

BEIRA (NEW)

MAPUTO (NEW)

NACALA (NEW)

Coal

NEW EXPORT ROUTES FOR COAL AND IRON ORE

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New and existing ports (under expansion)

ONE BELT ONE ROAD Initiative

- Aiming to increase connectivity and cooperation along trade routes

- Along the maritime road, countries in SE Asia, Middle East and Africa

are set to benefit most

- 68 signatory countries so far

- 3,409 million people affected

- Estimated infrastructure investment of USD 23 trillion by 2030,

or 1.7 trillion per annum!

- 150 million tons of incremental steel demand mostly coming from China

ONE BELT ONE ROAD – MARITIME TRADE

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HAMBANTOTA, SRI LANKA

- Linking Suez Canal with SE Asia

- Transhipment center

- Deep water port

- Free trade zone

- Oil storage, refining and bunkering facilities

- Vessel maintenance & repair services

- 5 days closer to East Africa ports compared with Singapore

(Aden to Richards Bay range)

- Its importance can increase further if Southern Thailand canal is built

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HAMBANTOTA, SRI LANKA – THE NEW SINGAPORE ?

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Hambantota

Port

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Singapore Port

THE NEW PANAMA CANAL

- Can accommodate vessels up to 366m LOA | 49m Beam | 15,2m TFW

- Exports out of EC Canada, USEC, NCSA heading west to Asia, SE Asia will

be routed via the new Panama Canal

- Trade off versus COGH

- Tariff policy implemented in favour of larger vessels – cargo stems will

increase accordingly

- Cargoes affected: Grains, Coal, Iron Ore

- Arbitrage Opportunities

- Increased intra continental trades from WC South America to USC / USEC

THE NEW PANAMA CANAL - POTENTIAL TRADE FLOWS

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40oW

40oW

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Shanghai

Fortaleza

TRADE DISRUPTIONS – THE CASE OF MEXICO

Corn

Wheat

Wheat

Coal

Coal

Coal(Aus)

ANNUAL TRADE BETWEEN USA / MEXICO

- 13.8 M TONS CORN

- 2.7 M TONS WHEAT

- 2.7 M TONS COAL

Nikolaos Triantafyllakis

Thanks for listening !