Opportunities for Research and Innovation in the Built Environment Cross-disciplinary challenges

DCLG and Arup experience

Professor Jeremy Watson FREng FICE FIET

Director: Science & Technology, Arup & Ex-Chief Scientific Adviser: DCLG

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Arup

• A trust, not a public company

• 11,000 employees worldwide

• 90 offices

• Multidisciplinary

• Driven by belief in benefiting society and delivering the best quality of

work

• Investing to develop knowledge and capability

Research a key differentiator, together with Design Excellence and

Quality Engineering

• Research Champions with Design & Technical Executives in each Region

• Close linkage with Foresight and Skills/Knowledge groups

• Dedicated research investment fund, internal and external working

• Example: Investment in contactless recharging of electric vehicles

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• A key part of client work since our formation in 1946

• Research creates de-risked innovation for clients

• A vital market differentiator for our premium services

• 55 doctoral students

Research is in Arup’s DNA

Arup claims approximately

5% of revenue as eligible

R&D for tax credit

Challenges for Public and Private Sectors: Examples: Building Sustainability and Social Care

Drivers and Trends: CO2

CO2 rise derived from

Antarctic ice core

measurements and readings

from Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

James Watt’s steam engine

developments took place in

the 1750s

Around 45% of all present

carbon emissions come

from existing buildings, with

~25% from homes

• Tipping point – 500ppm? Currently 400ppm (Scripps Institution) Ice caps melt, more sunlight absorbed, trapped CH4 & CO2 released

Keeling curve

Research under the Living with Environmental Change programme; NERC, ESRC, EPSRC

Temperature data & modelling

Summer 2003:

normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s

Observed temperatures

Simulated temperatures

Stott Nature 2004 – updated to 2007 – HadGEM1

Met Office

Priorities for the Built Environment

Adaptation (time-frame 0 to 50+ years) – extreme weather

o Global temperature increase has already led to seasonal extremes; 23,000 excess

deaths in EU in 2003, ~900 in UK

o Need to design buildings to ensure that compliance with high code levels does not

make homes unsafe in extreme weather

o Greater incidence of intense rain with urbanisation - pluvial flooding

Energy cost / shortages (time frame 5 to indefinite years)

o Global depletion of fossil fuels and exhaustion of indigenous fossil fuels – but

Shale Gas a mid-term benefit

o Drive to de-carbonise central energy resources – need to ‘go nuclear’

o Need to minimise energy consumption in buildings

Mitigation (time frame 0 – 200+ years)

o We have to live with effects of already-emitted carbon for 200+ years

o Ultimately we must bring carbon concentration to an equilibrium point

o Possible active sequestration – CCS plus atmospheric abatement

o Buildings viewed at district-level should be carbon neutral or negative

Retrofit issues

Issues

~22m homes to be retrofitted by 2050 1600 per day from now ‘till 2050

o £5,000 - £20,000 cost per home?

o Impact of £110bn - £440bn

o Inhomogeneity of stock implies challenge in achieving ‘standard solutions’

o Lack of standard solutions implies difficulty in obtaining cost-down through scale, and

spread in cost/performance ratio

Needs

o Cooperation across the supply chain – collaborative industry behaviours

o Deployment at scale to create standard solutions

o Skills to install and obtain specified performance

o Understanding influences on user behaviour with respect to energy consumption (can

persistent behavioural norms be established)

o De-risked finance models – validation of performance & pay-back

o ‘Investment-quality energy audits’ (work underway by UCL and NPL)

HMG is committed to an 80% reduction in

carbon emissions by 2050,

80%+ of existing buildings will still be here in

2050

Retrofit case study: Drum Housing

Measures:

- Energy efficiency:

- Cavity wall insulation

- Loft insulation 300mm

- Double glazed windows

- Low-energy light bulbs

- Draught proofing & ventilation

- Waste water heat recovery

- Renewables:

- Ground source heat pumps

- Solar Photovoltaics

Savings:

- 50% on bills (~£600pa)

- 75% C-saving

Part of ‘Generation Homes’ initiative

www.generationhomes.org.uk

Cost per home £22,750 ► £10,000

( 38 ► 17 year payback)

6 semi-detached homes

Retrofit cost vs. CO2 reduction

Source: National Refurb Centre 2011

Uses complete Refurbishment Portal dataset

Prerequisites for the Green Deal

1. The expected financial savings must be equal to or greater than the

costs attached to the energy bill, known as ‘the Golden Rule’

2. The measures must be approved and the claimed bill savings must be

those accredited through this process

3. The measures installed must have been recommended for that property by

an accredited, objective adviser who has carried out an assessment

4. The measures must be installed by an accredited installer

Points with respect to Green Deal

Thermal management interventions – readiness to deploy

o Technical measures

o Skills

o Performance

Predictability of achieving expected thermal performance (energy savings)

o Materials and sub-systems; performance to specification?

o Industry capability

o User behaviour

o Measuring outcomes – Building Energy Metrology

Attractiveness of finance proposition

o ‘Golden rule’

o Finance provider issues

DECC Energy Act 2011 – First Green Deal Q4 2012

Key Technologies

Materials

o Insulative (e.g. vacuum-aerogels)

o Thermal storage: sensible heat and phase-change (PCM)

o Advanced functional – PV coatings, thermo-electric, etc.

… (DCLG recently commissioned research into state of the art heat

storage and insulation materials)

Energy conversion

o Solar thermal for heating and cooling (absorption cycle)

o Photovoltaic: Si, CdTe → Polymer → Biotechnology

o Wind turbines: (district, rural)

o Heat pumps: refrigeration cycle and advanced Peltier

o Biomass combustion from renewable sources

ICT, including Control & Instrumentation

o Active zone control in buildings – condition only where needed

o ‘Network control’ of individual appliances

o Intelligent, self-learning controls (e.g. NEST)

Behavioural Research challenges

• Building and product design influences sensitivity to behaviour

• Rebound and contrary behaviours

• How to engineer design from objective outcomes?

• Transition dynamics – adoption curves

• Role of regulation and fashion alongside technology

• Need for multi-disciplinary research to guide engineering and policy

• Systems which learn (and maybe question) occupant choices and behaviour

Behaviour is a dominant effect compared

with physical interventions

Behaviour Change

A spectrum of socio-technical interactions

Joint project with RIBA, Royal Academy of Engineering and

Arup

Workshop and publication

Products

• Behavioural outcomes well understood

• Product Designers

Buildings

• Cultural impacts drive design, but behaviours are a weak influence

• Architects, sub-system design

Districts

• Evolutionary development, little design

• Planners, political influences

How do Design, Architecture and Engineering

Influence Behavioural Outcomes?

Agenda-creating collaborative initiative running between Royal Academy of

Engineering, RIBA, Arup, ESRC and four government departments

Key points

• Environmental issues for the Built Environment include the need for: Adaptation to a changing climate, Fuel costs and shortages, Need to mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions (requirement for 80% reduction by 2050)

• Buildings account for 45% of the Greenhouse Gas footprint of the UK, homes around 25% of the total

• Main issue is retrofitting existing buildings; 80%+ of those we have now will be in use in 2050 – around 20m homes

• Green Deal will support cost of basic (fabric) retrofit – recovered from energy bill add-on. Installations must conform with ‘Golden Rule’ – that energy bills will be less than those before retrofit, despite add-ons

• Cost of retrofit currently high and variable

• Appeal of providing Green Deal finance unproven, given uncertainty of payback

• Variability arises from user behaviour, quality of installation, price of materials and components

Assisted Living

Our Aging Demography

• The UK has a growing and ageing population

• 15.4m people have at least one long term condition in England

• Numbers will grow (250+% increase in 50 years) also growth in multiple

conditions

• The aging population consumes 70% of health and social care budget

• People want to be supported to live independently (minimise hospital

admissions

But

• People aged 50+ spent £276bn in 2008 – about 44% of total UK family

spending

Our aging demography: the numbers

2002 2012 2022 % growth

2002 to 2022

Older disabled

people

2, 690,000 3,080,000 3,765,000 40%

Receiving

informal care

1,970,000 2,260,000 2,760,000 40%

Residential

Home

240,000 275,000 335,000 38%

Nursing Home 145,000 165,000 205,000 40%

Public

expenditure

9.5 12.9 18.8 98%

Private

expenditure

5.4 8.5 12.5 133%

Total GDP 1.5% 1.6% 1.9%

Projection of Economic Impact from Aging

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Pensions

Healthcare

Long-Term Care

Unem

ployment benefits

Education

2007

2060

Percentage of GDP (EU27)

Source: EC '2009 Ageing

Report: economic and budgetary

projections for the EU-27

Member States (2008-2060)'

~100%

increase

Social Care

• Assisted Living can keep people in their own homes safely and for longer, at

reduced cost

• A combination of sensors, IT systems and service packages

• Trials by DH (the Whole Systems tele-health demonstrator) showed:

o Mortality reduced by 45%

o Emergency admissions reduced by 20%

o A&E visits reduced by 15%

o Bed days reduced by 14%

o Elective admissions reduced by 14%

• Research needed in systems-scale deployment and business models

“Unless we do something, by 2030 all of the authority’s

revenue will have to be spent on care of the elderly and

disabled” – Outer London local authority

Relevant Research Council initiatives: MRC – Life-long Health and Well-being, TSB – ALIP,

DALLAS (Delivering Assisted Living Lifestyles at Scale)

Assisted Living – a systems approach

Acknowledgement: Plum -

2010

• Sensors

• Local

intelligence

• Communications

• Real-time

services

Synergies in Smart City services

Telemedicine Telecare Energy

optimisation Security

Real-time service

business 1

Real-time service

business 2

Summary

Some ‘wicked problems’ are emerging – we have no option

but to address these

Key opportunities for research and innovation with large

social and economic impact

Research collaboration and knowledge sharing and across

HEI, private and public sectors is key to success

The UK has a large national investment in research and a

great ranking in research quality

Overall, for the built environment,

Science and Engineering in Government

Context – for Government

• The challenges are stronger than ever, with financial restrictions pulling

against environmental and demographic and other social drivers

• Knowledge and resource sharing are increasingly important factors in

effective collaboration (Local Economic Partnerships are playing a role)

• The capacity to seek evidence and, commission and absorb knowledge

varies across the Departmental community

• Solutions?

o Working with universities to create networks of expert advisers?

o Digests of university research freely available?

o Localisation of university engagement with communities? (Witty Review)

o Government knowledge needs raised to the level of national priorities?

Each year, government departments invest around £3.4 billion on

scientific research and development to support their work (£1.3

billion spend by civil departments and £2.1 billion by defence). The

breadth of issues is extensive: from facing environmental

challenges through improving health and wellbeing to preventing

and reducing crime

A further ~£6.2 billion is routed to UK universities via the Higher

Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE), the seven

Research Councils and the Technology Strategy Board

A Significant investment

Overview of Science & Engineering in Govt

GCSA = Government Chief Scientific Adviser

CSA = Chief Scientific Adviser

SAC = Scientific Advisory Committee

DG = Director General

GO-Science = Govt Office for Science

PSRE = Public Sector Research Establishment

HSL = Health & Safety Labs

NNL = National Nuclear Labs

LGC = Lab of the Govt Chemist

EPSRC = Engineering & Physical Sciences RC

ESRC = Economic & Social RC

BBSRC = Biotechnology and Biological Sciences RC

MRC = Medical RC

NERC = Natural Environment RC

AHRC = Arts & Humanities RC

SFTC = Science and Technology Facilities Council

CST = Council for Science & Technology

• AHRC = Arts & Humanities

• BBSRC = Biotechnology and Biological

Sciences

• EPSRC = Engineering & Physical Sciences

• ESRC = Economic & Social

• MRC = Medical RC

• NERC = Natural Environment RC

• SFTC = Science and Technology Facilities

Council

The Research Councils routinely collaborate

with each other and with the Technology

Strategy Board (TSB), also with business,

government and the charity sectors. This

leverages investments of knowledge and

money as well as promoting dissemination

and take-up of research outcomes.

Research councils

• AHRC = Arts & Humanities

• BBSRC = Biotechnology and Biological

Sciences

• EPSRC = Engineering & Physical Sciences

• ESRC = Economic & Social

• MRC = Medical RC

• NERC = Natural Environment RC

• SFTC = Science and Technology Facilities

Council

The Research Councils routinely collaborate

with each other and with the Technology

Strategy Board (TSB), also with business,

government and the charity sectors. This

leverages investments of knowledge and

money as well as promoting dissemination

and take-up of research outcomes.

Research councils

Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council

• EPSRC is the main UK government agency for funding research and

training in engineering and the physical sciences

• Invests more than £850 million a year in a broad range of subjects – from

mathematics to materials science, and from information technology to

structural engineering

• Themes:

• Support for core STEM disciplines

o Digital economy (cross-council)

o Energy

o Engineering

o Global uncertainties

o Healthcare technologies

o Uncertainties – led by ESRC

o Information and communication technologies (ICT)

o Living with environmental change – led by NERC

o Manufacturing the future

Economic & Social Research Council

• The UK's largest organisation for funding research on economic and social

issues

• Supports independent, high quality research which has an impact on business,

the public sector and the third sector

• Total budget for 2011/12 £203 million

• Themes:

• At any one time over 4,000 researchers and postgraduate students in academic

institutions and independent research institutes

o Economic growth and sustainable development

o Behaviour change and intervention

o A Fair and Vibrant Society

Technology Strategy Board

• Goal to accelerate economic growth by stimulating and supporting

business-led innovation

• Since formation:

• Funding interventions:

The UK’s national innovation agency

o Invested around £2.5bn in innovation, with partner and business contributions (inc RCUK, RDAs, DAs

and industry)

o Worked with around 4,000 companies to stimulate UK innovation

o Brought more than 110 universities to engage in business innovation projects

o Worked with businesses to create large-scale technology demonstrators in low carbon vehicles, low

impact buildings and digital services

o Innovation Platforms : programmes around challenges that will shape future markets - such as stratified

medicine, sustainable agriculture and food, and the environmental impact of buildings

o Collaborative R&D

o Knowledge Transfer Networks: promoting open innovation - >50,000 members

o Knowledge Transfer Partnerships

o SBRI: £100m of contracts awarded to more than 600 SMEs

o Catapult centres – collaborative centres of excellence (c.f. Fraunhofer)

New Opportunities for Universities to work with Government

• Policy advice

o Gaps – need to augment diminishing cohort of Policy Analysts in the Civil

Service: loss of key specialists

o Working examples: Cambridge Centre for Science and Policy and UCL Centre

for Engineering Policy (Brian Collins)

• Advisory group membership

o Many Departments or CSAs retain science advisory committees

• Staff secondments

o Policy fellowships with ESRC and other councils

• Policy-driven research themes

o Responding to real-world challenges

o Win – win – win for HEIs, RCs and government

Research in Arup responding to new challenges

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Research context in Arup

• Research is essential to maintain and grow market position

– and identify incremental and step-out opportunities

• Research is typically ‘applied’ and anticipatory of business

need: time scale – ‘now’ to three years+

• Emphasis on innovation: ‘Concept to Commercialisation’

• Research ‘pull’ – from Business leaders and ‘push’ – from

Design and Technology networks and academic partners

• Research fund to encourage internal and external

investment

• Driven by strategic roadmap

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Research themes – aligned with skills Networks

capabilities 3-D Modelling Education Materials Acoustics Electrical Services Mechanical Services

Advanced Analysis Energy Moving Structures Air Quality Environment People Movements Archaeology / Heritage Facades Pharmaceuticals Asset Management Flood management Planning Regulation

Audio Visual Fluids Product Design Aviation Geology Project Management Building Physics Geotechnics Public Health Business Performance Healthcare Railw ays

Business Systems Highw ays Safety Communications Human Behavioural Dynamics Tunnelling Contaminated Land Industrial Consulting Universal Access Controls Inspection Repair Refurb Urban Design

Corporate Responsibility Investment appraisal Vehicle Design Cost IT Venues Demand Analysis Know ledge Management Vertical Transportation

Design Research Landscape Waste Development Planning Lighting Water Dynamic Behaviour (structures) Logistics Workplace Performance Ecology Maritime

Economics

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1. Strategy

• Corporate research roadmaps

• Regional and group strategy facilitation

2. Network

3. Funding

Research Offering Components

• Set up and management of research consortiums

• Links to research funding bodies

• Grow and develop the research network

• Internal engagement in multidisciplinary research

• Engagement with key external partners

4. Building

capability

• Doctoral training

• Incubating business opportunities

Arup Research – Global Deliverables

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Research Strategy

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Relationships with National Funding Agencies

• Proactive mission to promote mutually-beneficial relationships

• Thought-leadership and ‘agenda calibration’

• Unbiased sectoral representation

• Roadmap-sharing to assist national research agendas

• Awareness of and response to Calls

• Consortium formation

• Strategic Partnerships

• EPSRC allowing definition of Programmes under joint funding

• Work in EU under European Construction Technology Platform & E2B PPP

• Dialogues with NSF, NIST, ARC, MOST, SSTC, etc.

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• €2bn over 10 years PPP to fund RD&D

• Driven by industry in E2B Association (E2BA)

• Reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions

• Arup funded by UK government to represent UK in E2BA

• Arup coordinates the European network liaison points

Energy Efficient Buildings PPP

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Research Funding at Arup

In house research

• R&D calls for proposals for Global and Regional projects £600k

• Research Challenge and Strategic Relationship funding ~£200k

External collaborative: regional and global • External Collaborative Research projects £600k Global

• Pays Arup staff time and expenses for collaborations

• Leverage between x1.5 and x4

Manage

~£2.5m

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Arup’s Knowledge Supply Chain

‘New’

‘Next’

‘Now’

• Emerging trends

• Policy options

• Informing the agenda

• Roadmaps and strategic agendas

• ‘Needs’ interpretation, gap identification

• Knowledge generation & transfer

• Communities of practice

• Validation and deployment of knowledge

• Delivery of capability through people

Time

Foresight

Professional

Learning &

Skills

Research

Commercialisation

Concept

Now, New, Next – a knowledge pipeline

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Arup University

Arup has always provided a learning culture

In 2007, we added a formal programme of staff development

Doctoral

modules

Masters

modules

Professional

modules

Accredited EngD qualification

4-year, on-the-job

Driven by business need

Intensive 10 day specialist training

Provided by HEI partners

Distance and face-to-face CPD

Provided by regional skills networks

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Doctoral College

“The Doctoral College was set up to create a community of Arup research students, where

they can share knowledge, experiences and foster links between internal Arup experts and

external doctoral students, their academic supervisors and host universities.”

Doctoral College established Spring 2011 55 members and growing

Includes all students undertaking PhD study either part funded or supported by Arup (e.g.EngD’s,

CASE Award, Arup University DM modules, part time study)

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HEI Collaboration supported by Arup

Lecturing and supervision

Studentships

• Internships

• Sponsored first degree students

• Masters (incl. Arup branded courses)

• Doctorates, Eng D

Research collaboration

• Co-sponsorship of government funded research

• Use of specialised facilities at universities: cooperation/fee for

service

• Contract research

Strategic engagement

• Endowed chairs at departments

• Staff education-Arup University

• Membership of university advisory groups

Memoranda of Understanding

are signed with universities

where long-term, multi-level

collaboration is taking place

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Examples of Arup Collaborative

Research

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