OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

THE WAR ON TERROR

U.S.-imposed rules of geopolitical gameCo-existence with geo-economic gameLatin America:

“spectator” role in geopolitics active participation in geo-economic game

PREVAILING CONDITIONS

Ideological divisions: left, right, centerPrevalence of democratic discourseFocus on “strategic options”Unavailable alternatives:

Bolivarian dream of collective unity Rule of international law, organizations Social revolution

Thus: geo-economic option (with U.S. focused on geopolitics)

GE0-ECONOMICS 1. TURN TOWARD THE NORTH

Vicente Fox (Mexico) Hopes for immigration reform NAFTA constraints Opposition throughout Latin America

Comrades in the War on Terror (Geopolitics too) Colombia Guatemala

The FTA Club Chile [special case] Central America + DR Peru Colombia Panama

GEO-ECONOMICS 2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY

Brazil (Lula + Dilma) Grandeza brasileira Role in Haiti Resistance to FTAA

Venezuela (Chávez) ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas) International assistance programs Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries Denunciations of Bush and USA Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

GEO-ECONOMICS 3. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY

Brazil (Lula) WTO Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21) G3, G5

Venezuela (Chávez) Non-Aligned Movement UN Security Council Petroleum exporters (including Iran)

GEO-ECONOMICS 4. BEYOND THE HEMISPHERE

Europe Divisions over Iraq Concern about EU future FTAs with Mexico, Chile Distancing from/by Spain

Asia Withdrawal of Japan Eruption of “China fever” PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina,

Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba

Iran? Really?

ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS

Exports to China, 2008: Argentina 9.0% Brazil 12.4% Chile 4.8% Mexico 0.7% Cuba 18.4%

Liberation from IMF: Argentina 2005 ($9.8 bn) Brazil 2005 ($15.5 bn) IMF “relegated to sidelines”

U.S. SHARES OF TRADE, 2000-2010

Imports __2000__ ___2010___ Argentina 19.1 13.8 Brazil 23.1 15.0 Chile 17.8 17.0 Mexico 72.0 60.6 Venezuela 33.5 26.6

Exports __2000__ ___2010___ Argentina 12.0 5.4 Brazil 22.4 9.6 Chile 16.8 10.4 Mexico 88.7 73.5 Venezuela 51.9 38.7

POLITICAL DIMENSIONS

Distaste for GWB and U.S. policiesResuscitation of CubaRegional organizations w/o USA:

Rio Group (1986, 23 members) Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008,

33 members) CELAC (2010, 33 members) Ibero-American Summits (1991) MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus) UNASUR (2005)

BILATERAL DIMENSIONS

Argentina: “a distant relationship”Brazil: “getting better all the time”Chile: “cooperative friendship”Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”

THE BENEFITS OF INATTENTION?