Ontario Labour Market Information

Service Canada Ontario Region

Research and Analysis

May 2008

2

Declining National Unemployment Rate

Canada and OntarioUnemployment Rates

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

%

Canada Ontario

3

Ontario Manufacturing Employment Continued to Decline in 2007

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

000s

4

But Ontario remains the centre of Canadian Manufacturing

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Trade

Manufacturing

Health Care and Social Assistance

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing

Educational Services

Construction

Accommodation and food services

Public administration

Information, culture and recreation

Transportation and Warehousing

Business, Building and Other Support Services

Other services

Agriculture

Utilities

Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas

Canada

Ontario

5

Declining Transportation Equipment Mfg Employment

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

000s

2004 2005 2006 2007

6

Significant challenges in forestry and pulp and paper

Forestry Employment in Ontario (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Forestry and Logging Wood ProductPaper Manufacturing NO Paper Manufacturing

7

Drivers

Increased globalization of trade and commerce

Energy prices

US economic performance

Demographic changes

Changing expectations

Emerging nations

8

The Service sectors

Services sector strength continues to compensate for manufacturing weakness

Retail and WholesaleTrade has steadily increased in size to be the largest source of employment in the province with over a million workers

Health care and social assistance has had continuing growth with nearly 33,000 more workers than last year

9

Aging Population

10

Boom Bust and Echo (and the next bust which is just entering elementary school)

Bust went through high school in the 1980s and enrolment rates went up

Echo went through in the 1990s

BUT even smaller cohorts entering the elementary system now

Boom 5 to 10 years away from retirement (depending on retirement practices and pension factors)

11

More Demographics

Canadian birth rate in decline = 1.4 (U.S. = 2.0)

Immigration = 70% of Canada’s workforce growth 1991 –2001

Immigration =100% of workforce growth by 2011

Unemployment relatively low by historical standards

12

Immigrants are an Important Source of Labour Supply

Between 2001 and 2006, immigrants increased by just over 12 percent, almost three times the growth rate of the Canadian-born population in Ontario

The numbers and share of the population who came from offshore varies widely among subprovincial areas with more than than one-third of the immigrant population of Ontario living in Toronto

13

Immigration trends

Immigration to Ontario peaked in 2001 at 148, 425 and had settled back to 125, 914 in 2006

Immigrants born in Asia and Middle East largest immigrant group Over 40 percent of immigrant population mostly from South and East

Asia countries China and India are major source countries

14

Retirements

About 29.8% of all workers employed in Ontario in 2001 are expected to retire over the period 2001 to 2015

Retirement rates vary significant depending on the age structure and typical retirement age of an occupational group Strongest retirement pressures are expected in the health, primary

industry, management occupations and social science education and government service sectors. Many of these occupations require university level education

Least affected sectors include natural and applied science and sales and service occupations

15

Occupational Outlook

Selected skill shortages exist but pressures not as acute as in Western Canada

Ontario has relatively more Management, Business and Administrative and Processing Manufacturing jobs

Weakness in manufacturing based occupations: assembly, processing, machine operation

Pressures mainly on occupations where supply is constrained

16

Occupational Distribution

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sales and Service Occupations

Business, Finance and Administrative Occupations

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators andRelated Occupations

Management Occupations

Occupations in Social Science, Education,Government Service and Religion

Natural and Applied Sciences and RelatedOccupations

Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturingand Utilities

Health Occupations

Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

Occupations Unique to Primary Industry

Canada

Ontario

17

Occupational Trends

Technical and Related Occupations in Health

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2000 2007

Heavy Equipment and Crane Operators Including Drillers

85

100

115

130

145

2000 2007

Secretaries

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2000 2007

Ontario Employment

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2000 2007

18

Occupations in demand

Senior managers finance Financial managers Banking credit and other financial

managers Financial and investment analysts Specialists in HR Biologists Metallurgical and materials engineers Mining engineers Geological engineers

Computer engineers Physicians Pharmacists Registered nurses Medical laboratory technologists Medical radiation technologists Medical sonographers Licensed practical nurses

19

Who Produces LMI?

Service Canada and HRSDC

National, Regional and Local levels

Provincial government partners and the Forum of Labour Market Ministers

Sector councils

NGOs and private sector providers eg. Career Cruising, Workopolis, Ontario Workinfonet

20

Federal Provincial Cooperation

The Canada-Ontario Labour Market Development Agreement commits Ontario and the federal government to work together to develop a Labour Market Information Strategy for Ontario.

This will help us to build an effective, efficient and accessible labour market information system, for the benefit of all Ontarians.

21

SC Local LMI on the webhttp://www.labourmarketinformation.ca

Series of products produced locally for communities across Canada Occupational Profiles Potential Employers by Occupation Training Resources Wages by Occupation Labour Market Bulletin / Review News Flash

22

23

Access LMI

Call click or visit http://www.labourmarketinformation.ca http://www. Jobfutures.ca http://www.ontario.ca/labourmarket http://www.flmm-lmi.org http://www.onwin.ca