Labour Market in Canada

8/13/2019 Labour Market in Canada

1/98

Monitoring the pulse of the

ENGINEERING*profession

Prepared By:Prism Economics and AnalysisOctober, 2012

THEENGINEERINGLABOURMARKETIN

CANADA:PROJECTIONSTO2020

FINAL

REPORT,

OCTOBER,

2012


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PrismEconomicsandAnalysis|TheEngineeringLabourMarketinCanada:Projectionsto2020 Page1

TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary............................................................................................................................................................................4

Part1

Introductionand

Methodology

..........................................................................................................................

11

Part2 NationalOverview....................................................................................................................................................17

Part3 RisksandAlternativeScenarios.........................................................................................................................36

Part4 LabourMarketAssessments.................................................................................................................................40

B.C.Overview.................................................................................................................................................................................42

AlbertaOverview.........................................................................................................................................................................49

SaskatchewanOverview..........................................................................................................................................................56

ManitobaOverview....................................................................................................................................................................62

OntarioOverview........................................................................................................................................................................67

QubecOverview

.........................................................................................................................................................................

74

NewBrunswick............................................................................................................................................................................80

NovaScotiaOverview...............................................................................................................................................................85

PrinceEdwardIslandOverview...........................................................................................................................................90

NewfoundlandandLabradorOverview...........................................................................................................................91

Part5 Conclusions...................................................................................................................................................................96


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TableofExhibits

Market Coverage, Occupations and Provinces...5Exhibit 1.1: Market Coverage, Occupations and Provinces.12

Exhibit 1.2: Engineering Labour Market Tracking System, Summary of Main Components..13Exhibit 1.3: Engineering Labour Market Tracking System, Descriptions of Rankings...15

Exhibit 2.1: Employment Drivers Distribution of Growth across Industries, Investment and Provinces..18Exhibit 2.2: National Engineering Employment Growth by Industry (Expansion Demand) Index19Exhibit 2.2a: Employment Share of Industry, 2012 Canada20

Exhibit 2.3: Employment Growth Expansion (Expansion Demand)..21Exhibit 2.4: Replacement Demand Patterns by Occupation Canada..23Exhibit 2.5a&b: Replacement Demand, All Occupations by Province...24

Exhibit 2.6: Engineering Labour Market Tracking System Supply Side Dynamics...25Exhibit 2.7: Enrolments in Canadian Undergraduate Programs as a Percentage of the Population.26

Exhibit 2.8: Trends in Undergraduate Engineering Programs, High and "Discouraged Youth" Case...28

Exhibit 2.9a: Trends in Post Secondary Enrolments...29Exhibit 2.9b: Trends in Post Secondary Enrolments...30

Exhibit 2.10a: Trends in Engineering Graduates Entering the Labour Force, All Programs..31Exhibit 2.10b: Trends in Engineering Graduates Entering the Labour Force..32

Exhibit 2.11: Permanent and Temporary Engineering Immigration to Canada....33Exhibit 3.1: Assessing Risks in the Market Assessments.....38Exhibit A.1: Engineering Work Force Estimates 2011, British Columbia..43

Exhibit A.2: British Columbia Engineering Employment Growth by Industry...44Exhibit A.3: British Columbia Market Rankings.45

Exhibit A.4: British Columbia Replacement Demand and Supply Side Measures..46Exhibit B.1: Engineering Work Force Estimates 2011, Alberta50Exhibit B.2: Alberta Engineering Employment Growth by Industry.51

Exhibit B.3: Alberta Market Rankings..52

Exhibit B.4: Alberta Replacement Demand and Supply Side Measures.......53Exhibit C.1: Engineering Work Force Estimates 2011, Saskatchewan.57Exhibit C.2: Saskatchewan Engineering Employment Growth by Industry..58Exhibit C.3: Saskatchewan Market Rankings59

Exhibit C.4: Saskatchewan Replacement Demand and Supply Side Measures.60Exhibit D.1: Engineering Work Force Estimates 2011, Manitoba...63

Exhibit D.2: Manitoba Engineering Employment Growth....64Exhibit D.3: Manitoba Market Rankings..65Exhibit D.4: Manitoba Replacement Demand and Supply Side Measures...66

Exhibit E.1: Engineering Work Force Estimates 2011, Ontario68Exhibit E.2: Ontario Engineering Employment Growth by Industry.69

Exhibit E.3: Ontario Market Rankings..70Exhibit E.4: Ontario Replacement Demand and Supply Side Measures72

Exhibit F.1: Engineering Work Force Estimates 2011, Qubec....75Exhibit F.2: Qubec Engineering Employment Growth by Industry..76Exhibit F.3: Qubec Market Rankings...77Exhibit F.4: Qubec Replacement Demand and Supply Side Measures78

Exhibit G.1: Engineering Work Force Estimates 2011, New Brunswick.81Exhibit G.2: New Brunswick Engineering Employment Growth by Industry..82

Exhibit G.3: New Brunswick Market Ranking..83Exhibit G.4: New Brunswick Replacement Demand and Supply Side Measures.84Exhibit H.1: Engineering Work Force Estimates 2011, Nova Scotia..86


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Exhibit H.2: Nova Scotia Engineering Employment Growth by Industry...87Exhibit H.3: Nova Scotia Market Rankings.88

Exhibit H.4: Nova Scotia Replacement Demand and Supply Side Measures..88Exhibit I.1: Engineering Work Force Estimates 2011, Newfoundland and Labrador.92

Exhibit I.2: Newfoundland & Labrador Engineering Employment Growth by Industry...93Exhibit I.3: Newfoundland and Labrador Rankings.94

Exhibit I.4: Newfoundland and Labrador Replacement Demand and Supply Side Measures.94


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ExecutiveSummary

The2012updateoftheEngineeringLabourMarketTrackingSystemfocusesonmarketimbalancesthat

challengemanagers,

planners,

recruiters

and

job

seekers

alike.

The

core

imbalance

finds

an

abundance

ofCanadiansseekingworkasengineerscoexistingwithanacuteshortageofengineeringskills. There

areatleastthreemarketrealitiesthatcontributetothissituation;

First,thereisagrowingregionalimbalancewithtightermarketsinthewestwhilemarketsareweakerin

theeast. Second,requirementstoreplaceretiringengineersfarexceedthenumberofnewjobscreated

byeconomicgrowth. Thiscontributestoaskillsshortagethatismostacuteinthemarketfor

specializedengineerswithovertenyearsofexperience. Third,thereisanabundanceofyoung

engineeringstudentsenrolledinandcompletingengineeringprogramsbutlackingpracticalskills. As

thislabourpoolgrows,thereisacoincidentincreaseinengineersarrivingasTemporaryForeign

Workersto

fill

job

vacancies.

Many

of

the

Temporary

Foreign

Workers

will

stay

in

Canada

permanently.

Equivalentorlargerimbalancescanbeseeninthespecificmarketscoveredinthereport;impacting

conditionsbydisciplineandprovince.

Theseimbalanceshavebeenapparentforsomeyearsbutgrowmoreacuteasarisingproportionofthe

workforceapproachretirementandspecializedprojectdemandsdriverecruiting. The2012Update

considersthepotentialforenhancedflexibilitytohelpbalancemarkets. Analysisreflectsonthe

potentialofconsulting(bothdomesticandforeign)andmobilityofengineersacrossdisciplinestohelp

balancemarkets. Regionalmobilityofbothexperiencedandnewengineersbecomesakeyfactorin

labourmarket

planning.

This2012updateincludesaneweconomicbackgroundwithadetailedforecastofinternational

conditions,commodityandfinancialmarketsandalistofthekeyindustrial,resource,infrastructureand

otherprojects. Thesedriversareusedtotrackchangesinindustrialoutputand,inturn,jobsin

engineering. Demographicconditionsarethesecondkeydriveranddetailedanalysisoftheage

distributionofthepopulation,participation,retirementandmortalitypatternsandimmigrationare

included.

Eachupdateofthesystemincludesimprovementsandthe2012versionsignificantlyexpandscoverage

ofmarkets

(i.e.

occupations

by

province)

from

26

in

the

2010

version

to

79

in

the

current

version.

This

versionalsoincludesanewanalysisofrisksthroughthepresentationofabasecaseandalternative

scenariosthatdescribetheimpactofchangestoretirementbehaviour,patternsofentryand

graduationsinpostsecondaryprogramsandcompetitiveoutcomesforCanadianengineeringconsulting

firms.


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Assessmentsaresummarizedwitharankingsystemthatdescribeseachmarketonascalefrom1(avery

weakmarketwithseverechallengesforjobseekers)to5(averytightmarketwithseverechallengesfor

recruiters). Marketsinthemiddlerank(3)oftenreflectthevariousimbalances. Theyaredescribedas

havingmoderatesupplypressureswhere,forexample,newentrantsfrompostsecondaryprogramswill

faceadifficultjobsearchbutrecruitingqualifiedengineerswithoverfiveyearsofexperiencewillalso

bedifficult.

See

Rankings

for

more

details.

LabourMarketAs sessments

Thecoreofthesystemisthe79marketassessmentsthatcovereachyearfrom2011to2020. Readers

cangostraighttothisdetailthroughtheLabourMarketswindoworthroughExhibit1.1here.

Thissummaryhighlightsconditionsbycomparingtherankingsforeachoccupationinlargeprovinces. A

limiteddescriptionisavailableforPrinceEdwardIslandandnomarketmeasuresarepresentedforthe

Yukon,theNorthWestTerritoriesandNunavut. Reliablestatisticalmeasuresaredifficulttofindornot

availableforthesesmallmarkets. Alltherankingsarebuiltupfromabaseofeconomic,demographic

andsupplysideanalysisandthesecommonfeaturesaresetoutfirst. Localconditionsincludingthe

impactofmajorinvestmentprojectsandgovernmentpoliciesoftenmoveindividualmarketrankings

awayfromthebroadertrends.

MarketCoverage,OccupationsandProvinces

Occupation byRegion Engineers

Newfoun

dland&

Labrador

Nova

Scotia

New

Bruns

wick

Qubec Ontario ManitobaSaskatc

hewanAlberta

British

Columbia

Civil engineers

Mechanical engineersElectrical &Electronics engineers

Chemical engineers X X

Industrial &Manufacturingengineers

X

Metallurgic al andmaterials engineers

X X X X X

Mining engineers X X X X

Geological engineers X X X X

Petroleum engineers X X X X

Aerospace engineers X X X X

Computer engineers X

Other engineers X X X X

Source:PrismEconomics&Analysis


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NationalTrends

Onthedemandsidelabourmarketconditionsaredrivenbyexpansionandreplacementrequirements.

Theformertracksthejobsaddedorlostastheeconomyexpandsandcontracts. Thesechangesare

largelyassociatedwithoutputandinvestmentcyclesinkeyengineeringintensiveindustries.

Replacementdemand

captures

labour

requirements

related

to

demographic

trends

and

the

departure

ofengineersastheypermanentlyleavetheworkforce.

Expansiondemands

Expansiondemandforecastsareweakerinthe2012findingsthaninearlierreports. Thisisduetoashift

inglobalconditionstolowerspendingpromptedbyhighdebtlevelsandrestrictivegovernmentpolicies.

ThesefeaturesareprominentacrossCanadawithgovernmentrestraintholdingbacktheeconomyin

mostprovinces.Majorforcesaddingtogrowthincludeinvestmentinmachineryandequipment,

resourceandinfrastructureprojects.TheseinvestmentsareconcentratedintheWestandinkey

industriesincludingmining,oilandgas,transportationandutilities. Theseareengineeringintensive

activitiesandprovidenewjobsforengineers. Manufacturingactivityisalsostrong,butinmostregions

thegainsreflectarecoveryfromaverysteepdeclinethatbeganin2007orearlier. Fewmanufacturing

industriesrestoreoutputtopreviouspeaksandemploymentgainsarerestrainedbyproductivity

improvements. Expansiondemand,onanationalbasis,creates16,000jobsforengineersfrom2011to

2020againof8%. VirtuallyallthegainsarewestofQubec.

ReplacementDemands

Replacementdemandsrelatedtoretirementpatternsarethedominantissueinlabourmarketsand

humanresourcesmanagement. Fromanationalperspective,theaverageageofengineersvariesfroma

lowof34.6forcomputer,petroleum,miningandgeologicalto42.1forcivilengineers. Largenumbersin

eachgroupmoveintotheirearlytomid60sfrom2011to2020. The2012reportconsidersminimum

levelsofannuallabourforcelossesthatrunfrom1.7%to2.6%oftheworkforce,eachyear,astheage

profilesrise. Theseproportionsriseinamorecompleteanalysisoflimitedretirementsthatinclude

theproportionoftheworkforcethattakepensionbenefitswhileremaininginparttimeorconsulting

roles. Addingaprovisionforlimitedretirementincreasestheproportionoftheworkforceretiringtoas

muchas4.6%forcivilengineersbytheendofthescenarioin2020. Theseconditionswillaccountfor

over95,000jobopeningsasengineersretireandthisisthedominantforcedrivinglabourrequirements

andrecruiting. Managingthisprocessandrecruitingtomeetthisreplacementdemandisapriorityand

itfocusesattentionontheneedtofindexperiencedandspecializedengineers.

PostSecondaryPrograms

ThedemographicsofyoungerCanadiansarereflectedinpatternsofnewregistrationsandgraduations

frompostsecondaryengineeringprograms. Risingtrendsinenrolmentsareprojectedtocontinueuntil

2013or2014. AtthispointinthescenariothesourcepopulationofCanadiansunderage34beginsto

decline. Decliningenrolmentsmaybeafactorfrom2015to2020,butgraduationswillcontinuetoadd

totheworkforcethroughmostofthecomingdecade. Inthebasecasescenariothenumberofnew


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graduatesenteringtheworkforcereaches102,000orjustunderthetotalrequirementsofexpansion

andreplacementdemand. Thispatternmightbeconsistentwithanoversupplyofyoungengineers.

Immigration

Canadahasreceivedalargecomplementofinternationallytrainedengineersoverthepastdecade.

Immigrationincreased

in

2011

but

remains

below

the

trend

set

in

the

past

decade.

If

the

current

levels

aresustainedafurther80,000engineerswillarriveby2020. Thesegainsrepresentjustunderhalfof

theimmigrantswhoarrivedfrom2001to2010.

Theoverallnationaltrendsprovidedaboveimplythat,formuchofthecomingdecade,therewillbe

moderatesupplypressuresinmanymarkets. Thisgeneralfindingisconsistentwiththerangeof

rankingsreportedintheanalysis. Butbroadtrendsmissveryimportantregional,industryandage

drivenconditions.

Forexample,industryfeedbackvalidatingearlierfindingshavesuggestedthatdemographictrends

combinewith

other

factors

to

create

very

tight

markets

for

older,

experienced

and

specialized

engineers

butweakermarketsforyounggraduates.

Regionaldifferencesprovidedistinctvariationsfromnationaltrends.

British Columbia

BChasthetightestengineeringlabourmarketsacrossthecomingdecade. Astrongreboundin2010

wasfollowedbymodestjobgainsin2011and2012. Supplycaughtuptodemandleavingjustmoderate

supplyconstraintsforalloccupationsexceptminingwheremarketsarealreadytight. Newresourceand

infrastructureprojectsbeginin2013andby2014allmarketsareundersignificantsupplypressures(a

rankingof4)bythemidpointofthescenario. Theseconditionspersistinalmosteverymarketto2020.

Risingreplacementdemandaddstoexpansiondemandasthedecadeprogresses. Graduatesfrompost

secondaryprogramsarerisingandpeakin2017. Theseadditionsarenotsufficienttocoverdemands.

Immigrationlevelsareassumedtoremainattherelativelylowlevelsreportedin2011.

Al bert a

AlbertahassimilarmarketconditionstoBCacrossthedecadewithsignificantsupplypressures(4)asthe

dominantrank. LikeBC,resourceandinfrastructureprojectsdriveemploymentbutthetimingof

marketshiftsisdifferent. Albertabeginsthedecadewithtightconditionsrelatedtostrongemployment

growth

in

2011.

There

is

a

pause

in

oil

and

gas

and

some

government

infrastructure

work

in

2013

and

2014thatlimitssomemarketstomoderatesupplyconstraints. By2015resourceinvestmentresumes

andbothexpansionandreplacementdemanddrivetightsupplyconditionsforthebalanceofthe

scenario.

PatternsofpostsecondaryregistrationsandgraduationshelpmoderateconstraintsinsomeAlberta

marketsasbothmeasuresriseineachyearacrossthescenario. Butpostsecondaryenrolmentsin


9/98


Albertahavelaggedthenationaltrend;addingtothepressuresfacedbyrecruiters. LikeB.C.,

immigrationtoAlbertadroppedtolowerlevelsinlastfiveyearsandtheselowlevelsareprojectedto

continue.

Saskatchewan

Marketsin

Saskatchewan

are

more

cyclical

and

more

varied,

but

the

supply

constraints

are

an

issue

in

themajorityofmarketsacrossthedecade. LikeB.C.,marketsreboundedin2010andgrowthcontinued

during2011and2012. Resourceprojectsareabsorbingallavailableengineersinkeyoccupations

especiallyminingengineers.Resourceandinfrastructureprojectspeakin2015andmarketsweaken

afterthat. Marketconditionsvaryfromsupplyconstraints(5)tosupplypressuresinkeyoccupations

from2013to2015andthenanexcessofsupplyinsomemarketsafter2016.

Saskatchewanisasmallmarketwithbigprojectdemandsthatcomeandgo. Localpostsecondary

programsarenotabletokeeppace. Engineeringimmigrationhasbeenlimitedandstrongcurrent

demandisreflectedasCanadiansfromotherprovincesseekjobsandlicensureinSaskatchewan.

Limitedflexibilityinsupplymayleavemarketsvulnerabletoshiftingdemandandchangingrankings.

Cyclicalperiodsofsupplyconstraintswouldlikelybeassociatedwithaddeddemandsforengineering

consultingservicesandtheserequirementscouldbefilledfromoutsidetheprovince.

Manitoba

ExpansiondemandsinManitobaareconcentratedinresourceandutilityprojects. Thestrongrecovery

in2010wasfollowedbyfewgainsin2011and2012. Butprojectdemandstightenmarkets,especially

forcivilandelectricalengineersfrom2013to2020. Amodestmanufacturingrecoveryhelpsindustrial

andaerospaceengineers. Othermarketsarevariedbutthereareconsistentsupplysidepressures

acrossthescenarioinManitoba.

AsinSaskatchewan,localpostsecondaryprogramscannotmatchtheshiftingmarkets. Theindustryin

Manitobahasencouragedtheintegrationofnewengineers. Agrowingrelianceonimmigration,

especiallytemporaryforeignworkers,addsamoreflexiblesupplyside. HalfofManitobasmarketsface

onlymoderatesupplysidepressures(3)whiletheotherhalfareassessedwithsignificantsupply

pressures(4).

Ontario

EngineeringlabourmarketsinOntariobeginthedecadewithverylimitedgrowthfrom2011to2013.

Marketsinitially

have

moderate

or

excess

supply

(2)

conditions.

Mild

cycles

and

shifting

expansion

demandgraduallytightensomemarkets. Resourceprojectsinthenorthandinfrastructureinmost

regionsleadjobcreation. Steadyimprovementsinmanufacturingcreatesupplypressuresforindustrial

engineers. Resourceandinfrastructureprojectsaddjobsandcreatesignificantsupplypressures(4)for

miningandcivilengineers.


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Marketsmovetomoremoderatesupplyconstraintsinthelasthalfofthedecadeasdemandismatched

bygainsinpostsecondarygraduates. Immigrationin2011wasatitslowestpointsince2006andthis

levelisextendedto2020addingenoughengineersgivenlimitedgainsinexpansiondemand.

Qubec

Demographiclimits

and

government

restraint

largely

eliminate

expansion

demand

for

engineers

across

thescenario.Labourrequirementsforresourceandutilityprojectsearlyinthedecadearenotlarge

enoughtocoverlossesinotherindustries. Replacementdemandsaresignificantbutmoderate

increasesingraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsandimmigrationaremorethansufficienttocover

theseneeds. Thesedemand/supplybalancescreatemoderatesupplypressures(3)inabouthalfof

Qubecsengineeringlabourmarketsandanexcessofsupplyoverdemandintheothers.

Ne wBrunswickandPrince EdwardIsland

MajorprojectsarebeingcompletedandactivityisslowinginmostindustriesinNewBrunswickand

P.E.I. Expansiondemandislimitedandlabourrequirementsriseforjustcivilandindustrialengineers.

Utilityprojectsinareaslikeelectricitygenerationdrivespecializedneedsbuttheyarehardtomeasure

inasmallmarket. Amoderatelyolderageprofilecreateshighreplacementdemandsinsome

occupationsincludingcivilengineering.

Trendsinpostsecondaryeducationprogramsareincreasingthenumberofgraduationsacrossmostof

thescenario. Thesenewengineersmaynotbringtheskillsneededtoreplacetheretiringworkforceand

supplyconditionsinmostmarketsreflectanimbalancebetweennewandexperiencedengineers.

Nova Scotia

Labourrequirements

in

Nova

Scotia

are

similar

to

New

Brunswick

and

P.E.I.

with

minimal

expansion

and

growingreplacementdemands. Thedifferenceisonthesupplysidewheretrendsinenrolmentsand

graduatesarenotablylower. Immigrationhasdeclinedaswell. Theresultisariskthatasmanyasone

thirdofengineeringlabourmarketswillfacesignificantsupplyconstraintslaterinthescenariomainly

relatedtoretirements.

NewfoundlandandLabrador

MarketsinNewfoundlandandLabradoraremorecyclicalthanotherprovinces. Thisisrelatedto

variableexpansiondemandsasmajorresourceandinfrastructureprojectsstartandend. Thetracking

systemassignsaportionoftheserequirementstolocalengineers,butthereisasignificantlikelihood

thatstrong

requirements,

especially

from

2012

to

2014

will

be

filled

by

consulting

engineers

from

outsidetheprovince.

Significantsupplypressuresandevensupplyconstraints(5)areanticipatedatregularintervals. These

conditionsmayreflectashiftindemandsthatwilladdworkinengineeringservicesinmarketsthathave

weakconditionsandcanprovidetheexperienceandspecialtiesneededfortheNewfoundlandand

Labradorprojects.


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Conclusions andNextSteps

Paintedinbroadstrokes,currenttrendsinthesupplyofengineersacrossCanadafrom2011to2020will

leavemoderatemarketpressuresandshortfallsgivenexpectedrequirements. Requirementsare

heavilyskewedtoreplacingretiringworkerswithfewernewjobsrelatedtoexpansiondemands.

Expansiondemandsarefocusedonresource,utilityandinfrastructureprojectsandmanyareinthe

west.

Innumerical

terms,

projected

new

entrants

to

the

workforce

from

post

secondary

programs

meet

alargeproportionoftherequirementsandcurrentlevelsofimmigrationaremorethansufficienttofill

thebalance.

ThereisacoreimbalancethatpersistsasalargegroupofCanadiansandpermanentimmigrantsare

seekingworkasengineersbutoftenlacktheskillsandexperiencethatissoughtbyrecruiters. The

resultisanoversupplyofpotentialnewentrantsatthesametimeasrecruitersfaceashortageofskills.

Thisismostapparentasretiringengineerstakevaluedskillsoutofthemarketandthesecannotbe

replacedbynewgraduates. Theconcentrationofnewjobsinthewestandinresourceand

infrastructureprojectsisalsomismatchedwithsupplytrends.

Applyinglongtermprojectionsanddetailedanalysisofthistypetohumanresourceplanningorindustry

HRpolicyinvolvesrisks. Alternativescenariosinthereportconsidersomeoftherisksthatdrivemarket

rankingsunderdifferentconditions. Threealternativescenariosareavailabletotestkeyassumptions.

Differencesbetweenthealternativescenariosandthebasecasesuggestthat;

Patternsoflimitedretirementreflectthepotentialforolderengineerstoleavefulltime

employment,perhapswithapension,andremaininparttimeorconsultingjobs. Recruitersin

largeorganizationsmustcalculatereplacementdemandsundertheseconditions.

Allowancefordiscouragedyouthlimitingenrolmentinpostsecondaryprogramshasavery

limitedimpactonmarketbalancesasfewofthenewstudentswillactuallyenterthelabour

marketsandtheexistingstudentpopulationdeterminesshorttermtrendsingraduates.

ArisingshareinincreasinginternationalopportunitiesforengineeringconsultingforCanadian

firmswilladdtoexpansiondemandsandcreatesignificantsupplypressures.

Coreimbalancesandneededadjustmentsinindividualmarketscreatechallengesforhumanresource

planning. Resultspointtoadaptationsthatwillbettermatchsupplyanddemand. Forexample,the

findingsimplythatmarketswillfunctionbetterifhumanresourcesplanningforengineersincludes;

Retainingolderengineersintheworkforcelongerandaddingtoprogramstoacceleratetheon

thejoblearningofnewgraduates,

Adaptingpost

secondary

programs

to

meet

the

specialized

needs

of

employers,

Increasingthesupplyofengineersinthewest,throughpostsecondaryprogramsand

immigration,and

Addedflexibilityandportabilityofspecializedengineeringservicesacrossregionsand

specialities.


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Part1 IntroductionandMethodology

The2012EngineeringLabourMarketreportmarksthethirdupdateofEngineersCanadasanalysisof

humanresourcesissues. Thisinitiativebeganwiththe2008EngineeringandTechnologyLabourStudy.

Indeed,this

work

dates

back

to

the

2003

From

Consideration

to

Integration

reports

on

the

experience

ofinternationalengineeringgraduatesinCanada. Eachstageofthisprocesshasunderlinedtheneedfor

timelyandaccuratelabourmarketinformationthatwillimprovedecisionsbystakeholdersincluding:

Employers

JobSeekers

Potentialandnewengineering

immigrants

Facultyandstudentsinengineering

programsand

Immigrationpolicymakers

Eachupdatereflectscurrenteconomicconditionsandaddsimprovementstothesystem. The2012

resultsincludeamajorexpansionofthemarketscovered. Datarestrictionsinthepasthavelimitedthe

reliabilityto

estimates

of

all

but

the

biggest

markets.

Feedback

from

users

has

consistently

asked

for

widercoverageofmarkets(i.e.occupationsbyregion). The2012resultscover79marketsamajor

increasefromtheoriginal26. Detailsprovidedforthenewmarketshavebeenvalidatedthrougha

seriesofmeetingsandwebinarswithkeyindustrystakeholders.1

Analysisfocusesonfuturelabourmarketconditions. Theseconditionsaremeasuredinscenariosthat

combineseveralassumptionsaboutinternationaleconomicconditions,demographicsandgovernment

policydecisions. Thesescenarioshaveassociatedrisksthatcanbemeasuredbyalteringkey

assumptions. The2012findingsincludealternativescenariosthatassesstheserisksinthreeareas:

1. Alternativeinterpretationsofretirementbehaviour

2. Alternativeinternationalmacroeconomicconditions,and

3. Alternativepatternsofregistrationsinengineeringpostsecondaryeducationprograms

SeetheRisksandAlternativeScenariossectionformoredetails.

EngineersCanadaacknowledgesthekeycontributionofparticipantsinvalidationdiscussionsand,in

particular,thecontributionofRandstadEngineeringfortheirsupportofthiswork.

Extendedcoverageofengineeringlabourmarketsinthe2012findingsismadepossiblebythenew

ProvincialOccupationalModelingSystem(POMS)releasedbyStokesEconomicConsultinginassociation

withPrismEconomicsandAnalysis.2 ThePOMSsystemisbasedondetailedanalysisofCensus,labour

forceandemployerdatathatallowsnewestimatesofemploymentbyoccupationsandregion.

1Webinars and meetings were arranged during August 2012 with provincial associations, engineering faculties and theAssociation of Consulting Engineers of Canada.2A more detailed description of the economic models maintained at Stokes Economic Consultants and the POMS is

available at workforceoutlooks.ca


13/98


ResearchatEngineersCanadaaddsfurtherdetailthroughtheannualreportonenrolmentsanddegrees

awardedinpostsecondaryprograms.3 Earlierversionsofthemarkettrackingsystemhaveintroduced

immigrationmeasurestothesupplyside.

Exhibit#1.1reportsthenewmarketcoverage. Eachmarketnotedintheexhibitisdescribedlaterinthis

reportwith

measures

of

employment,

the

available

labour

force,

unemployment,

immigration,

graduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsandrelatedmarketassessments. Somemarketshavebeen

excludedwheretherearefewerthan150employedandlimitationsinmeasuresofrelatedpost

secondaryprograms. SomeprovincewidedataallowscommentaryonPrinceEdwardIsland. Data

restrictionsruleoutanalysisintheYukon,theNorthwestTerritoriesandNunavut.

Exhibit1.1:MarketCoverage,OccupationsandProvinces

Occupation byRegion Engineers

Newfoun

dland&

Labrador

NovaScotia

New

Bruns

wick

QubecOntario

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Alberta

BritishColumbia

Civil engineers

Mechanical engineers

Electrical &Electronics engineers



X

Metallurgic al andmaterials engineers X X X X X


Geological engineers X X X X

Petroleum engineers X X X X

Aerospace engineers X X X X




3See Canadian Engineers for Tomorrow; Trends in Engineering Enrolment and Degrees Awarded 2006 2010


14/98


Therearenomeasuresofnationalmarkets. Researchsuggeststhatnationalaggregatescreatebroad

averagesthatcombineverydistinctlocalconditions. Theseaveragescanbeverymisleadingasthey

concealcriticallocalfactors. Areviewofnationaltrendsfortheeconomy,industries,demographicsand

postsecondaryprogramsisincludedinthenextsection. Thisdescriptioncoverstrendsthatapplyin

eachregionandformacommonthreadinallthemarketassessments. Individualmarketdescriptions

coverdistinct

local

conditions

that

shift

labour

markets.

Exhibit1.2:EngineeringLabourMarketTrackingSystem,SummaryofMainComponents



15/98


Exhibit#1.2setsoutthebasicsupplyanddemandmeasuresthatareusedtoassessmarketbalance.

Labourrequirementsaredividedintoexpansiondemandandreplacementdemand. Theformertracks

thejobsaddedorlostastheeconomyexpandsandcontracts. Thesechangesarelargelyassociated

withoutputandinvestmentcyclesinkeyengineeringintensiveindustries. Replacementdemand

captureslabourrequirementsrelatedtodemographictrendsboththearrivalofnewengineers

enteringthe

market

for

the

first

time

and

the

departure

of

engineers

as

they

permanently

leave

the

workforce. Newentrantscanenterthelabourforcefrompostsecondaryprogramsandasimmigrants.

Therearealsoalternativeexitpathsasengineersmoveoutoftheactiveworkforceintoothernon

engineeringemployment(e.g.management)orretire.Theconnectionsamongthesemeasuresare

complex. Forexample,postsecondaryeducationforengineersisakeypreparationforthelabour

market. Buttherearenofixedlinks. Manygraduatesdonotenterengineeringlabourmarketsatall.

Graduatesfromoneprogrammaydevelopexperienceandspecializationsthatmovethemawayfrom

theirinitialeducation. Thus,forexample,chemicalengineersmaymoveintopetroleumengineering.

Linksbetweenimmigrationandlabourmarketsarealsouncertain. Forexample,newpermanent

immigrants,who

intend

to

work

in

engineering,

may

discover

that

their

qualifications

are

not

sufficient

tosecurework.

Thecombinedimpactofallthemeasurestrackedinthesystemissummarizedinamarketranking.

Exhibit#1.3describestherangeofrankings,from1to5,thatcharacterizethemarketsfromweak(high

unemploymentanddifficultywithjobsearch)tostrong(skillshortagesandrecruitingfromremote

markets).


16/98


Exhibit1.3:EngineeringLabourMarketTrackingSystem,DescriptionsofRankings

1

Significantexcessofsupplyoverdemand

No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or 5-10 years of

Canadian experience at established compensation norms within the local labour

market.

2

Excessofsupplyoverdemand

No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or with 5-10

years of Canadian experience at established compensation norms within the local or

regional labour market. The geographic range of recruiting and the range of

acceptable qualifications is broader than in 1.

3

Moderatesupplypressures

Difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with more than 5 years of

Canadian experience, with industry or technology-specific skills, and withappropriate non-technical skills. The time required to fill these positions is

typically longer than historic norms. Vacancies sometimes need to be re-posted.

Employers actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour

market and reimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews, etc.

Recruiting engineering staff with 0-5 years of Canadian experience poses fewer

challenges.

4

Significantsupplypressures

Difficulty across the board in recruiting qualified engineering staff in the local and

regional labour market. It is normal practice to actively solicit applications from

outside the local and regional labour market and to reimburse applicants for travelexpenses related to interviews. Employers are generally obliged to improve offered

terms of compensation and to assist with re-location costs. Recruitment difficulties

lead many employers to increase their use of third-party recruiters and to increase

their outsourcing of engineering and technology work to consultancies or staff the

assignment with engineering workers from another region. There is a significant

increase in the risk of project delays and compensation-driven cost escalations.

5

Supplyconstraints

Systemic difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff. International recruiting

is common among large employers. There is widespread perception that the

consulting sector is working at full capacity and that there is little, if any, remainingscope to outsource engineering and technology work to qualified consultancies with

a known track record.



17/98


Thereareseveralbroadtrendsthatspanallprovincesandoccupations;settingtheunderlyingpattern

formanyrankings. ThesenationalpatternsaredescribedinPart2. Part4thentakestheanalysisand

commentarydowntothelevelofeachmarketandprovidesthereaderwiththedetailsforthekey

measures.

Thisreport

and

the

associated

web

site

are

divided

into

five

parts.

This

Introduction

and

Methodology

is

followedbyaNationalOverview. Part3describestheRisksandAlternativeScenariosassociatedwith

themarketassessments. Part4containstheindividualLabourMarketsAssessmentsineachprovince.

Part5drawsthefindingstogetherinadiscussionofconclusionsandimplications.


18/98


Part2 NationalOverview

Thissectionsetsoutthenationaltrendsandrepeatedthemesthatdrivedemandandsupply.Afirst

sectionreviewskeyfactorsinengineeringlabourmarketsandasecondsectiondescribesthenational

economic

forecast.

2.a TrendsinIndustry,DemographicsandPostsecondaryPrograms

Eachengineeringlabourmarketisanalyzedinfourmajorcomponents;expansionandreplacement

demandandpostsecondaryprogramsandimmigration. Thefocusisonrecenttrendsthathaveshifted

themarketbalanceanddeterminethecriticalstartingpointforconditionsacrossthescenariosinallthe

provinces.

SupplyandDemandDrivers

Theviewoflabourmarketsbeginswithanalysisofrecenthistory(2006to2010),providesestimatesfor

2011andprojectionsfrom2012to2020. Buildingblocksforthissystemincludedetailedhistoricaldata,

amodelofprovincialeconomic,industry,demographicandinvestmentactivityandinternational

measuresofothereconomiesandglobalmarkets.4 TheadditionoftheCanadianProvincial

OccupationalModelingSystem(POMS)inthisupdatecreatesnewhistoricaldataandprojectionsforthe

seventynineengineeringlabourmarketspresentedhere. PrismEconomicsandAnalysishas

collaboratedwithStokesEconomicConsultinginthedevelopmentofthePOMSsystemandwiththe

additionofdetailedtrackingofpostsecondaryenrolmentsanddegreesawardeddata,aswellas

analysisofretirementpatternsforengineers.

i. IndustryProjectionsandExpansiondemandProjections

of

industry

investment

and

output

are

the

key

driver

for

expansion

demand.

Exhibit

#2.1

summarizesthesetrendsforsevenengineeringintensiveindustriesandsevencategoriesof

investment. Thesemeasuresandtherelatedimportandexportflowscreatenewjobopportunities

forengineers. Basiceconomicforces,describedbrieflyinthenationalandprovincialsummaries,dictate

trendgrowthof2.1%peryear,or22%acrossthedecade,fortheeconomyingeneralandforindustry

growthonaverage. Variationsacrossprovinces,industriesandinvestmentsarehighlightedinExhibit

#2.1wherestronggrowthexceeding25%from2011to2020iscapturedinorangeandweakgrowth

below10%,ingreen.

4These starting points are developed by the Center for Spatial Economic and Stokes Economic Consulting. The modelsand historical data are described in a documentation of methodology. See Provincial Economic Models, June 2010 for a

detailed model description and The Canadian Provincial Occupational Modeling System, July 2011 for a detailed

description of the labour markets covered here. The January 2012 economic outlook that drives the market assessmentsreported here is included in Appendix A.


19/98


Exhibit2.1EmploymentDriversDistributionofGrowthacrossIndustries,InvestmentandProvinces

Source:PrismEconomics&Analysis,CS4E

StrongexpansiondemandisapparentinBritishColumbia,AlbertaandManitoba. Ontariotrends

approachthenationalaverageandthereisweakergrowthinQubecandtheeast. Industrytrendsare

dominatedbystrengthinmining,oilandgasandmanufacturing. Theexpansionofresourceindustriesis

movinginvestment,outputandemploymentintonewrecordhighlevelsandprovidingthemajorityof

netnewjobs. Growthinmanufacturingisnotablebutisbestseeninthecontextofpastlevelsof

activity. Outputandemploymentlossesinmanufacturingacrossthelastdecadeoftenexceeded30%so

thatprojectedrecoveryof25%ormoreisnotenoughtorestoreactivitytopreviouspeaklevels.

Similarly,themoremodestgainsinconstructionandutilitiesconcealtherecordhighlevelsachievedin

theseindustriesby2011and2012. Evenmodestgrowthinthesesectorsrepresentsimportant

expansionofnewcapacity.

Governmentactivityisgenerallyamongtheweakestandthisrepresentsdeclinesfromrecenthighlevels

andsteadybutmodestfiscalrestraint.

Investmentactivityisaparticularlypowerfulengineeringintensivedriverandthestrongerindustries

arealsoleadersinnewinvestment. Manufacturing,utilityandtransportationinvestmentsarenotably

stronginmanyprovincesandgovernmentinvestmentisweak.

TheEngineersCanadasystemallocatestheseeconomictrendstoeachlabourmarketbasedonthe

patternsofemploymentandspecializationineachoccupation. Overallthetrendspointtolimited

British

Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec

New

Brunswick

Nova

Scotia

Newfoundland

&Labrador

Forestry 19.7 39.5 18.9 31.8 20.6 29.2 10.9 2.9 6.3

Oil &GasMining 50.1 28.7 8.4 15.1 14.1 0 64.1 30.9

Mining 42.6 9.5 50.6 28.7 49.2 32.4 75 19.8 23.2

Manufacturing 26 27.3 20.6 24.4 30.6 24.8 18.4 14.3 11.7

Utilities 19.2 27.3 23.7 20.7 21.7 11.7 14.8 11.8 49.7

Construction 17.8 16.1 8.5 14.4 15.1 9.4 5.7 15.2 9.7

Information, Professional,

Scientific,Managerial 27.8 24.2 13.6 19.6 21.6 15.8 13.8 11.5 7.9

GovernmentServices 5.5 21.5 17.8 17.3 6.8 4.8 5.9 7.8 9

InvestmentbyIndustry

Primary 34.6 10.9 3.6 22.5 15.3 6.7 18.1 12.4 5

Manufacturing 29.9 49.8 1.7 36.3 59.8 48.6 81.2 33.9 78.9

Utilities 26.2 0.6 36 36.5 38 5.2 20.8 42.4 248.4

Transportation&Warehousing 43.5 14.9 5.7 23.7 14.1 33.9 40.3 46.2 24.8

GovernmentServices 12.6 7.5 5.7 4.4 17.9 5.3 0.8 3.2 23.2

Investmentby

Asset

Class

EngineeringConstruction 29.1 1.9 1.4 4.2 7.5 3.2 5.7 8.7 1.4

BuildingConstruction 19 31.3 6.7 23.1 12.1 36.5 12.6 32.7 1.6

Machinery&Equipment 28.1 29.4 1.3 17.7 28.6 18.9 9.8 11.7 34.8

StrongGrowth(exceeds25%) WeakGrowth(below10%)

Industry

Growth20112020


20/98


employmentgrowthinengineeringsothatamarketwithgainsof20%acrosstheperiodfrom2011to

2020wouldbewellaboveaverage.

Exhibit2.2NationalEngineeringEmploymentGrowthbyIndustry(ExpansionDemand)Index

2009 = 100

Exhibit#2.2capturestheemploymentchangesforallengineeringoccupationsacrossindustries. This

Exhibitisdesignedtohighlightbothrecenthistoryandtheprojectedtrends.

Thebestavailablehistoricaldatasuggeststhattherehavebeenrecent,volatileswingsinemployment

especiallyinthesmallermarkets. Cyclicalchangesincludegainsin2007and2008withbiglossesin

2009.Indeedlossesduringtherecessioncanexceed10%inseveralmarkets. Evidenceongainsin2010

and2011arebothimportantandvolatile. Gainsarereportedin2010andtheseoftenrecoupedalljobs

lostin2009;restoringemploymentbutleavinghigherunemploymentastheworkforcecontinuedto

expand. Finally,2011wasaweakyearinsomemarkets;leavingemploymentlowerorunchangedand

unemploymentrelativelyhigh.

Source:PrismEconomics&Analysis,C4SE


21/98


Theseshorttermchangesleaveweakmarketconditionsinplaceatthestartoftheforecastin2012.

Generallyweakeconomicprospectsmakeitlikelythatthecyclicaljumpinunemploymentin2009will

notbeeliminatedsoon. Thisaddsagenerallyweaktonetotheassessmentsofseveralmarkets.

EvidencepresentedinboththeAlbertaandSaskatchewanvalidationsessionsdocumentedstronger

employmentin

2011

and

2012.

Revisions

in

selected

markets

were

introduced

to

raise

the

historical

startingpointforengineeringemploymentinthoseprovinces.

Thehistoricalvolatilityfrom2006to2011,trackedinExhibit#2.2,isreplacedbysteadytrendgrowth

from2012to2020.5 Notethatgrowthisconcentratedinresourceindustriesandtheservicessector.

RelativeemploymentgainsinresourcesareawelldocumentedfeatureoftheCanadianeconomyand

theimplicationsforengineeringarederivedhere. Thisexpansiondemandisconcentratedinafew

occupationsandlocalmarketsthatarehighlightedinthenextsection.

Trendsinservicesreflectacontinuingshiftastheshareofengineering,computerandmanagement

consultingemployment

approaches

almost

half

of

the

workforce.

These

labour

requirements

in

consultingservicesreflectthebalanceofexportsandimportsofCanadianengineeringconsulting.

Aboveaverageoverallgrowthinservicesisconsistentwithstronggrowthininternationalconsulting.

Thisgrowthincludesbothstrongerimportsofengineeringservicestofilldomesticneedsandrising

exportsasCanadianengineeringconsultantsgaininternationalshare. Thebalanceofexportsover

importsremainslargelyunchangedfromtherecentpastwithexportsaheadofimports.

Exhibit2.2aEmploymentShareofIndustry,2012Canada

5Of course more cyclical change may well occur but industry specific volatility is hard to forecast and would move aroundthe trends set out.

22%

5%

42%

5%

26%

Manufacturing

Construction

Architectural,

EngineeringandRelated

Services&OPS

Government

Other


22/98


Exhibit2.3EmploymentGrowthExpansion(ExpansionDemand)


Exhibit

#2.3

summarizes

the

national

trends

for

expansion

demands

across

the

full

scenario

from

2011

to2020. Resultsemphasizetheshifttothewestandtoresourceindustries. LimitedgrowthinOntario

andQubecreinforcethecommon,currentobservationthatCanadaseconomiccenterofgravityis

shiftingwest.

Employmentprojectionslagbehindoutput,reflectingrisingproductivityinallindustriesandforall

occupations. Engineerscanbedescribedastheagentsofinnovationandtheleadersofproductivity

gains.Itmightbeexpectedthatemploymentgrowthwouldriseforengineersasinvestmentin

machineryandequipmentrisesandindustriesgrowmoreefficient. Evidencefortheseimpactsis

limited. Inthemanufacturingsector,whereproductivitygainsaremostevident,thelimitedgainsin

engineeringemployment

probably

reflect

the

long

decline

in

employment

for

this

group

across

the

past

decade. Thereisapoolofskilledandexperiencedengineerswhoareavailablenowtohelpimplement

thenextwaveofmanufacturinginvestment. ForexampletheOntariolabourforceforindustrialand

manufacturingengineersexceeded11,000in2006. Yearsofweakmarketsandrecessionreducedthe

labourforceby2,000by2011andthe9.5%recoveryto2020doesnotcreateenoughjobstorestorethe

2006peakworkforce. Inotherindustries,especiallymining,theexpectedpatternisapparentandthere

aremanyprovincialmarketswithstrongexpansiondemandsandlimitedsupplyofminingengineers.


23/98


Thereportreturnstothequestionofengineersasagentsininnovationandtheroleofconsulting

engineersintheRisksandAlternativeScenariossection.

Labourmarketsforcivilandotherengineersinvolvedininfrastructurebuildingandothergovernment

workaredifficulttointerpret. Ontheonehandannouncedgovernmentrestraintwillcertainlyreduce

employmentrelated

to

many

projects

especially

the

stimulus

projects

from

2009

and

2010.

On

the

otherhandtherearemanytransportation,transit,electricalgenerationandtransmissionandother

infrastructureprojectsintheplans. Acloserlookatthedetailrevealsthatengineeringemployment

relatedtofederalspendingismorerestrictedandgainsinprovincialandmunicipalgovernmentsare

muchstronger. Itappearsthattheseoffsettingfactorsbalanceinmanyprovincesleavinglimited

employmentgrowthforcivilandrelatedoccupations.

ii. TrendsinreplacementdemandThepatternofexpansiondemandsetoutaboveisoftennotthefirstconcernofhumanresource

managers. Theyaremorelikelytobefocusedonrecruitingspecializedorexperiencedengineersoften

aspart

of

aplan

to

manage

retirements.

This

challenge

is

gaining

prominence

as

the

oldest

Boomers

passintotheirmid60s. Researchintoretirementandrelatedhumanresourceissuesisclarifyingawide

rangeofpossiblechoicesandoutcomes. TwoalternativescenarioshavebeendevelopedintheRisks

andAlternativeScenariostoemphasisthepotentialimpactofalternativeoutcomes. Thisanalysis

estimatesreplacementdemandorthenumberofengineerschangingtheirworkpatternsasthey

growolder.

The2008and2010EngineeringLabourMarketConditionsfocusedonmeasuringpermanentlossesto

theengineeringlabourforceasolderengineersstopworking. Thismeasureofreplacementdemandis

basedonlabourforcestatisticsthathavetrackedthepermanentexitofeachoccupationasthework

forcegrowsolder.6 Historicalpatternsareprojectedintothefutureandforecastpermanentlossesto

thelabourforce. Thislabourmarketlossmeasureisusedheretodefinethelowestboundaryfor

replacement.

Researchsuggeststhatthelabourmarketlossesdescribedabovedonotcaptureanumberofengineers

whomayleavefulltimejobsastheyacceptpensions. Thisgroupisoftenincludedinretirementas

theyrepresentalossandmustbereplacedbyemployers. Alargeproportionofengineersacceptinga

pensionmayremainintheworkforceeitherworkingonaparttimeorconsultingbasisorinotherjobs.

VariousestimatesfromemployersurveysallowtheEngineersCanadaresearchteamtoapproximatethe

extentoflimitedretirementasanupperboundarytoreplacementdemand.7

6Traditional statistical sources measure mortality and the decline in their participation rate as the source of permanent

exits.7Research done by Prism Economics for large employers of other professional groups like engineers show that thepercent of some organizations projected to take pensions can be well over 5% across the coming decade. These measures

are tied to the age profile and pension provisions of the organizations and are not representative of the broaderworkforce.


24/98


Theseresearchfindingssuggestlowerandupperboundariesthatcanbeusedtoassesstheimpactsof

bothlabourmarketlossandlimitedretirement. ThelabourmarketsassessmentssetoutinPart4are

basedontheupperboundary,i.e.includebothlabourforcelossesandlimitedretirements. The

differencesinlabourmarketimpactsvarybymarketwiththelabourforcelosscalculationrisingfrom

1.6%to2.5%from2010to2020dependingontheaverageoftheworkforcein2010. Upperbound

estimatesadd

together

both

the

limited

retirement

and

the

permanent

labour

market

losses

and

vary

fromannuallossesof3.3%toover5.0%basedontheageprofileoftheworkforceandaverageageat

retirement.

Exhibit#2.4describestherangeofoutcomesforbothlabourforcelossandlimitedretirementatthe

nationallevelforeachengineeringoccupation.

Exhibit2.4ReplacementDemandPatternsbyOccupationCanada


Exhibit#2.5aandblookatthetotalreplacementdemandacrossthe2011to2020scenariobyprovince.

Thesemeasuresreflectadeliberatelywidebandthatbracketsthelowestlikelylossesandminimum

replacementdemandwithahighmeasurethataddsontherecruitingneedsandhumanresources

challengesrelatedtolimitedretirement.

2011 2020 2011 2020

Civilengineers 42.1 2.47 2.47 4.60 4.60

Mechanicalengineers 41.9 2.09 2.12 3.87 3.90

Electrical andelectronicsengineers 41.9 2.24 2.27 4.16 4.19

Chemicalengineers 36.5 1.71 1.77 3.14 3.19

Industrialandmanufacturingengineers 36.5 1.92 1.98 3.54 3.60

Metallurgicalandmaterialsengineers 36.5 1.88 1.86 3.39 3.37

Miningengineers 36.5 1.88 1.82 3.39 3.33

Geologicalengineers 34.6 1.86 1.83 3.37 3.35

Petroleumengineers 34.6 1.71 1.77 3.11 3.17

Aerospaceengineers

34.6 1.83 1.90 3.35 3.43

Computerengineers(exceptsoftwareengineers) 34.6 1.67 1.78 3.12 3.23

Otherprofessionalengineers,n.e.c. 34.6 1.81 1.82 3.32 3.34

%oftheLabourForce

LabourForce

Loss Labour

Force

Loss

+

LimitedRetirementOccupation Average

Age


25/98




26/98


Replacementdemand,whichisthelargerofthetwocomponentsofdemand,isroughlydoubledbythis

accountingforexitbehaviour. Thetimingandcircumstancesthatsurroundretirementandpermanent

exitarethemostimportantfactorsdeterminingfuturelabourmarketconditions.

iii. NewentrantsPostsecondaryProgramsTurning

now

to

the

entry

side

of

the

labour

market,

the

analysis

considers

the

dynamics

of

post

secondaryenrolments,graduatesandimmigration. Thetrackingsystemhasbeenimprovedwithnew

linksthatmeasureprogressacrossavarietyofstepsconnectingpotentialentrantswithactivemembers

oftheworkforce. Manypotentialentrantstotheworkforcedonotbecomeactiveinthelabourmarket.

Thepossibleextentofthisgapisapparentinthe2006Censusresultsthatshowonly49%ofengineering

graduatesareemployedinengineeringandrelatedoccupations. Roughlyhalfofgraduatesare

employedoutsideengineeringandarepotentiallyunderemployed. Exhibit#2.6describesthepathsfor

immigrantsandstudents.

Exhibit2.6:EngineeringLabourMarketTrackingSystemSupplySideDynamics



27/98


Thestepsthatseparatepotentialentrantsfromactiveparticipationcanbeminimal(e.g.Temporary

ForeignWorkersareintheworkforceonarrival)toextended(e.g.fewCanadianfirstyear

undergraduateswilltakeallthestepstofindacareerinengineering).

The2012EngineersCanadasystemhasaddedanotherimprovement,attheveryfirststage,asittracks

theproportion

of

each

provinces

population

under

age

34

entering

engineering

programs.

Exhibit

#2.7tracksthenationalexperience,showingthattheproportionofundergraduatesentering

engineeringprogramshasbeenonarisingtrend. Thesetrendsareextrapolatedintothefuture

assumingcontinuinggainsintheproportionoftheyoungpopulationenteringengineeringprograms.

Exhibit2.7 EnrolmentsinCanadianUndergraduateProgramsasaPercentageofthePopulation

Source:EngineersCanada,PrismEconomics&AnalysisExhibit2.7EnrolmentsinCanadianUndergraduateProgramsasnada,

Thisrisingtrendisagenerallypositivesignalforengineeringandtheeconomy.

DatareleasedbyEngineersCanadaprovidesamoredetailedaccountingforthepopulationof

engineeringstudentsandgraduates.8 Thesetrendspointtoalargeandgrowingengineeringstudent

enrolmentthatmaynotmatchtheemerginglabourrequirements. Forexamplethegrowthin

enrolmentsfrom2007to2011isbelowthenationalaverageinAlbertaandSaskatchewanperhaps

8Trends are documented in the Engineers Canada publication Canadian Engineers for Tomorrow; Trends in Enrolmentand Degrees Awarded 2006 to 2010. 2011 data will be released in the Fall of 2012.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

PercentofStudents

Year

Exhibit2.7 EnrolmentsinCanadianUndergraduateProgramsasa

PercentageofthePopulationUnderAge34,Canada,AllPrograms

Canada Discouraged Youth

Discouraged Youth

High Trend


28/98


signallingconstraintsinthestrongestjobmarketsforengineers. Datafordegreesawardedacrossthe

provincesshowmorestrengthinAlbertaandSaskatchewanbutpointtoanotherproblem. Therapid

riseinvisastudentshastranslatedintoa24%increaseinenrolmentand34%jumpindegreesawarded

toforeignstudentsbutjust3.4%gainforCanadianenrolmentswhiledegreesawardedtoresidents

declinedacrossthe2007to2011period. .

Othertrendspointtoimbalanceinthepostsecondarysystemas,forexample,enrolmentforelectrical

engineersisdecliningwhilecivilprogramsaregrowingrapidly.

Atthesametime,changestothesystempointtogrowingflexibilitythatwillbettermatchthechanging

supplyofengineerstoemployerrequirements. Discussionswithstakeholdershighlighted;

governmentpolicytoretainforeignstudentsinCanada,

newprogramsthataddpracticalbusinessskillstoundergraduateprogramsand

internationalizationofengineeringprograms

ThesefindingsconfirmpastevidencethattheinitiallabourmarketexperienceofCanadianscompleting

undergraduateprogramshasnotbeenencouraging. Employersreportanabundanceofcandidatesin

thiscategoryandjobseekersreportdifficultiesfindingwork.

Thesefindingshavepromptedanalternativescenarioforengineeringmarketsbasedonalowertrendin

undergraduateregistrations. ThetrendcalculationinExhibit2.7assumesthatrisingnumbersofvisa

studentscontinuetochooseCanadianuniversitiesandthatagrowingproportionoftheCanadianyouth

choseengineering. Amorepessimisticview,calleddiscouragedyouthisconstructedwherethiskey

proportionisset25%belowthetrendineverylabourmarket. SeeRisksandAlternativeScenariosfor

moredetails. ThispessimisticviewassumesthatCanadianyouthrealizethattheweakeconomywill

generatelimitedjobopportunitiesandforeignyouthrecognisethelimitedsuccessofpermanent

immigrantsarrivinginCanadawiththeintentiontoworkasengineers. Thediscouragedyouth

scenariothereforeassumesalongtermdropinnewregistrationsandthenindegreesawardedin

engineering.

Exhibit2.8providesdataonnewregistrationsinengineeringprogramssince1991. Registrationsriseon

amildlycyclicaltrendwitha34%increaseoverthetwentyyearsfrom1992to2012. Almostallofthis

gainisaresultoftheriseinengineeringregistrationsasapercentofthepopulationasthesource

populationhaschangedverylittleoverthatperiod. Since2006alargeproportionoftheincreasein

registrationsisrelatedtonewvisastudents.


29/98


Exhibit2.8 TrendsinUndergraduateEngineeringPrograms,Highand"DiscouragedYouth"Case

Source:EngineersCanada,PrismEconomics&Analysis

NotethattheDiscouragedYouthcasemovestheshareofpopulationbackdowntowardsthelevelsof

the90sandmid2000s. Theimpactoflowerenrolmentsisconsideredlaterinthereport.

Theforecast

level

of

higher

new

registrations

reflects

the

rising

share

of

adeclining

population.

Canadaspopulationunderage34isprojectedtopeakin2012anddeclineineachsubsequentyear. In

thehighcase,engineeringprogramswouldcontinuetoattractarisingportionofyouth.

Nationaltrendsforalloccupationsareoftennotagoodguideforlocalmarkets. Therearelarge

variationsinallthesemeasuresacrossmarketsandPart4belowhighlightsmanydistinctpatternsof

enrolmentsandgraduations.

NewenrolmentseachyeararetrackedonExhibit#2.9aandb.Degreesawardedeachyeararelinkedto

registrationsfourorfiveyearsearliersothatannualvariationswillimpactthesupplysideoflabour

markets.Note,

in

particular,

the

large

rise

in

enrolments

in

2010,

the

last

year

of

actual

data.

This

gain

showsupasanincreaseingraduatesandpotentialmarketentrantsstartingin2014and2015.


30/98


Exhibit2.9a TrendsinSource:EngineersCanada,PrismEconomics&Analysis


31/98


Exhibit2.9b Trendsin

Exhibits2.10aandbreportthenumberofengineeringgraduatesenteringthelabourforceeachyear.

Thesenumbersareestimatedintwosteps:

Firstthenumberofregisteredstudentsistrackedthroughthefourorfiveyearprogramwith

allowanceforwithdrawals

Second,aportionofthegraduatesareassumedtoenterthejobmarket;findingorseeking

work.

Thesecondadjustmentallowsforthemovementofundergraduatesintopostgraduateprogramsand

forthedepartureofvisastudents. AlargeproportionoftheremainingCanadianstudentsdonotmove

ontoseekjobsinengineering. Censusdataandothersourcessuggestthatonlyaround60%of

graduatingundergraduatesandevenfewerpostgraduates(30%)enterthejobmarket.



32/98




33/98


Exhibit2.10b TrendsinEngineeringGraduatesEnteringtheLabourForce


Graduatesenteringthelabourmarketarethelargestsinglesourceofsupplytothemarket. Immigration

hasbeenastrongsecondsourceinthepast.

iv. Newentrants ImmigrationTherearetwobroadclassesofimmigrantsseekingtoenterengineeringjobs;temporaryforeignworkers

andpermanentimmigrants. Exhibit#2.11tracksthehistoryforthesegroupsincludingallengineering

occupationsgoingbackto1990. Theverylargeincreaseto2001andsubsequentdeclinereflectsboth

employmentopportunitiesandpolicy. Immigrationwasencouragedinthelate1990sbythesurgein

demandforcomputerandrelatedengineersandarecoveryinsomesectorslikeconstruction.Weaker

economicconditionsafter2000,especiallyininformationtechnology,reversedthemarketconditions


34/98


buttheflowofimmigrantswasslowtoadjustandthisaddedtoasurplusinsomelabourmarkets. Note

therecentdropinpermanentimmigrantshasbeenquitesteepbuttherehasbeenapartialoffset

throughrisingnumbersoftemporaryforeignworkers.

Source:Citizenship&ImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomics&Analysisadjusteddata

Recentchangesinfederalandprovincialgovernmentpolicywillcontributetofurthershifts. The

proportionoftemporaryforeignworkersislikelytocontinuetoriseasemployersseekexperiencedor

specializedengineersandastheProvincesallowtheseworkerstoextendtheirtemporarystatusinto

permanentresidency

through

the

Provincial

Nominee

Programs.

Atthesametimemarketconditionsdescribedbelowmaywelldiscouragethetraditionalpermanent

immigrantswhowillfacelimitedjobprospectsinmanyoccupationsandcompetitionfromyoung

Canadiansandotherimmigrantswhohavetheirqualificationsrecognizedafteradelay.


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2.b TheNationalEconomy

Thissectionreviewstheinternationalandnationaleconomicconditionsthatdrivetheprovincialand

industrialmarkets. ProjectionsaretakenfromtheJanuary2012CenterforSpatialEconomicsProvincial

EconomicForecast.

TheshorttomediumtermoutlookforrealGDPgrowthoftheCanadianeconomyissomewhatweaker

thantheoutlookusedinthe2010EngineeringLabourMarketanalysis. RealGDPincreases2.3percent

in2011withgrowthslowingslightlyto2.2in2012inlinewithdeclinesinresidentialandgovernment

investmentexpenditures. Inthemediumtermasawhole,realGDPgrowthaverages2.2percent.The

reductioningrowthin2014isaresultlargelyoffiscaltighteningneededtoreducelargegovernment

deficitsandweakgrowthinbusinessinvestmentexpendituresfollowingtheirstrongrecoveryfrom

2009.Thelongtermoutlookissimilartothe2010reportwithGDPgrowthaveragingjustover2.0

percentperyear.TheslowdownintrendgrowthcontinuestoberelatedtogrowthintheU.S.economy,

weakerlabourforcegrowthresultingfrompopulationaging,andthecontinuednegativeimpactoffiscal

tightening.

Nonresidential

investment

expenditures

make

the

largest

contribution

to

economic

growth

in

2011.

In

2012,investmentgrowthslowssomewhatwiththeendofthefederalstimulusprogramin2011.With

continuedhighcommoditypricesandprofits,investmenthasreturnedasanimportantdriverofgrowth

overtheshorttomediumterm morethanreplacingthelossofgovernmentstimulusspending.Over

thelongterm,investmentgrowthslowsinlinewitheconomicgrowth,withmachineryand

equipmentinvestmentgrowthaveraging2.3percentandnonresidentialconstructioninvestment

growthaveragingabout0.6percentperyear,afteraveraging4.7and6.1percent,respectively,inthe

mediumterm.

Theseoveralleconomictrendsarelinkedtothepatternofgrowthforsixkeyengineeringintensive

industriesthataretrackedindetailintheEngineeringLabourMarketsystem.

Primaryindustriesincludingoilandgasandminingarealeadingsectorespeciallyinthewest. Thereis

astronglycyclicalelementtothegrowthinthissectorasinvestmentrisesandfallsfollowingthepathof

majorprojects. Alonglistofmajorresourceprojectsareplannedformostprovinces. Manyare

underwayandactivityseemslikelytobesustaineduntilatleast2015. Boththeconstructionand

operationphaseofthisresourcedevelopmentisengineeringintensive. Butitisnotclearthatallthe

newengineeringjobswillbeintheindustriesandregionsthemselves. Agrowingproportionofthework

isdonebyconsultingfirms;ofteninotherprovincesoroutsideCanada. Someofthisactivityiscaptured

intheoutputandemploymentofthearchitecture,engineeringandrelatedservicesindustry.

Manufacturingactivityisprojectedtorecovermuchofthegroundlostoverthelastdecade. Output

gainswillclimbbacktopreviouslevelsinmanyindustriesbutthiswilltakemostofthecomingdecade.

Employmentgrowthwilllagoutputreflectingverystronggainsinproductivity. Thisleavesmanufacturingemploymentwellbelowpastpeaklevelsattheendofthescenarioin2020.

Manufacturinginvestmentwillbestrongintherecovery. Whilethisisanengineeringintensiveprocess,

thedirectemploymentgainsinmanufacturingarelimited. Thisispartlyrelatedtothepoolof

unemployedindustrialengineerswholostjobsduringthelastdecade. Itisalsorelatedtogrowthin

workforspecializedandexperiencedengineersintheservicessector. Someofthisworkismanaged

withservicesprovidedfromoutsideCanada.


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Constructionshowslimitedgrowthfrom2012to2020butthisoveralltrendconcealsmanyshiftsinthe

mixofactivity. Constructionhadreachedrecordhighlevelsineveryprovinceby2011andisexpected

tosustainthesepeaksuntil2020. Buildingshiftedfromstrongresidentialactivityinthelastdecadeto

gainsinnonresidentialfrom2010to2020. Withinnonresidentialconstructiontherehasbeenashift

frominstitutional

and

industrial

work

in

the

past

five

years

to

major

engineering,

resource

and

infrastructureprojectsinareaslikeoilandgas,electricity,pipelines,transitandmining. Againthis

activityisengineeringintensiveandconstructionrelatedengineeringemploymentrisesabovecurrent

recordlevels. Butoveralljobgainsacrossthedecadearelessthe10%inmostmarketsfarbelowgains

inthepastdecade. Theseprojectionsassumethatengineersaredisplacedfromthelagging

constructionsectorsandfindworkinthenewprojects. Thereisalsoanassumptionthatmanyofthe

jobsaddedintheservicesectorarerelatedtoconstructionwork.

ConsultingEngineeringemploys40%oftheengineeringworkforce. Thisactivityiscapturedinthe

architecture,engineeringandrelatedservicesindustryandmarketconditionsfortheseservicesarea

keydriver.

While

engineering

employment

growth

attributed

to

this

group

is

among

the

strongest

in

manymarkets,jobgainsrarelyexceed15%from2012to2020. Projectionsherearebasedoncomplex

anduncertainconditions. Muchoftheactivityinthissectorisdominatedbyimportsandexportsof

specializedengineering. Canadahasamajorinternationalpresenceinthisareaandtheprojections

usedhereassumethatexportsofengineeringservicesgrowinlinewithimports. Butthispatternis

consistentwithstronggrowthinthedemandforspecializedengineeringservicesfromoutsideCanada

relatedtotheresource,manufacturingandinvestmentactivitydescribedabove. Employment

projectionsinthemarketassessmentsintheRisksandAlternativeScenariostakeamoreaggressive

view,raisingoverallgainsforCanadianengineeringconsulting.

Governmentservices

are

the

weakest

component

of

engineering

intensive

economic

activity.

This

reflectsthebroadlybasedassumptionofrestraintinpublicspendingdrivenbyrestrictivefiscalpolicy.

Therearemanycasesofannouncedprojectsandlocalprioritiesthatwilldriveinfrastructurespendingin

areaslikeelectricityandtransitandthisworkmaybemanagedthroughpublicprivatepartnerships

(PPP)orotheroffbudgetarrangements. Theemploymentprojectionsthatdrivemarketassessments

inPart3oftenincluderelativelystrongmunicipalandprovincialgovernmentcapitalspending

notwithstandingtheannouncedfiscalpolicy.

UtilitiesandTransportationareastrongsourceofemploymentinseveralprovinces. Themaindrivers

herearemajorelectricityprojectsthatcovergeneration,transmissionanddistributionaswellas

renewableenergyworkinwindandsolar. Majortransportationprojectsareplannedforhighways,

transitsystems,bridgesandrelatedinfrastructureaswellaspipelines. Insomecasestheseprojectsare

linkedtoresourcedevelopment.


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Part3 RisksandAlternativeScenarios

Eachlabourmarketrankingisbuiltonacomplexseriesofassumptionsabouttheeconomy,retirement

patterns,immigration,postsecondaryengineeringprogramsandotherfactors. Thescenarioslookten

yearsintothefuture. Thissectiondescribestheriskstothesescenariosbyalteringthreekey

assumptionsand

studying

the

associated

change

in

the

rankings.

Retirement

AminimumnumberofengineerswillleavetheworkforceasthelargepopulationofBabyBoomers

moveintotheirsixties. Lowerparticipationandmortalitywillreducetheworkforceeachyearbyaslittle

as1.7%in2011,fortheyoungeroccupations,risingto2.5%in2020fortheolderoccupations. These

lossesarereferredtoaslabourmarketlosses.

Thisestimatedoesnottakeintoaccountthelikelihoodthatagrowingnumberofengineerswilltake

advantageofpensionbenefitstoleavefulltimejobs. ThisriskisaseriouschallengeforHRmanagement

andrecruiting

even

if

alarge

proportion

of

the

departing

engineers

continue

with

part

time

or

consultingwork. Higherreplacementdemandsareestimatedwithresearchfindingsthatvaryfrom3.0%

ofthelabourforceinyoungeroccupationsin2011andriseto4.6%inolderoccupationsin2020when

theseretirementsareaddedtolabourforcelosses. Thesehigherlevelsofreplacementdemandare

referredtoaslimitedretirements.

PostSecondaryPrograms

ResearchatEngineersCanadaoffersimportantinsightsintothepatternofentryintoandgraduation

frompostsecondaryengineeringprograms. NewregistrationsarearisingproportionCanadas

populationunderage34. Thistrendanticipatesahighandpotentiallygrowingsupplyofgraduatesof

trainedengineers

in

the

base

case

scenario.

But

acloser

look

at

the

data

highlights

arisk

that

new

registrationsmayfall. First,agrowingproportionofvisastudentsareintheprograms. Second,young

Canadiansarereportingdifficultiesfindingjobsaftergraduation.

Analternativescenarioassumesthattherisingtrendwillbereversedastheseconditionschangeand

theproportionofCanadasyoungpeopleenteringengineeringwillfallbackclosertohistoricallevels.

Thisalternativescenarioiscalleddiscouragedyouth.

InternationalCompetition

Inthebasecasescenarioeconomicgrowthdropstoannualgainsofonly2%andprospectsfornewjobs

inengineeringbecomelimited. OutsideofstrengthinresourceandinfrastructureprojectsintheWest,

mostlabourmarketsforengineeringwillexpandbylessthan10%from2011to2020. Thispattern

holdsengineeringopportunitiesbackandrunsbelowpasttrends. Thislimitedjobgrowthisrelated,in

part,totheassumptionthattradeinengineeringserviceswillsimplyextendthecurrentbalanceof

exportsandimports.


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Thereisevidencethatinternationaldemandforengineeringserviceswillrisemorerapidlythantrend

growthinCanada. Canadianconsultingengineeringfirmshaveestablishedastrongreputationabroad

andareincreasinglyabletocompeteagainstforeignfirmsforworkinCanada. Thethirdriskisthat

trendmeasuresmayunderestimatethecapacityofCanadianengineeringtogrow.

Athird

scenario

captures

this

potential

by

increasing

the

share

of

Canadian

service

exports

in

engineering. Almost40%ofengineeringemploymentisintheservicesectorandthisshareisassumed

togrowintheRisingSharealternativecase. Thiscaseteststhecapacityofengineeringlabourmarkets

tomeetthedemandsofa10%gaininemploymentrelatedtosuccessbyCanadianconsultanciesin

winningnewcontractsabroadandbeatingforeigncompetitionforworkinCanada.

AssessingtheRisks

Eachoftheseriskscanbeassessedbycomparingthemarketimpactsofthealternativescenarios. The

BaseCasescenarioissettoreflectthemostlikelycircumstancesintheviewoftheresearchteam. This

wouldincludethekeyassumptions:

Highretirement

trends

that

include

both

labour

force

losses

and

extended

retirements,

Trendincreasesinnewregistrationsinpostsecondaryprogramsasaproportionofthe

youngpopulation,and

NogainsintheCanadianshareofinternationalengineeringconsultingwork.

MarketassessmentspresentedinPart4belowarebasedonthesethreeassumptions. Totestthe

sensitivityofthefinalmarketassessmentstotheseassumptions,alternativescenariosarecomparedin

eachcase.

Exhibit#2.12summarizesthefindings. Thetwobigfactorsarereplacementdemandsrelatedto

extendedretirementsandrisingmarketsharesinengineeringservices. Significantchangesinthe

patternofpostsecondaryenrolmentshaveamuchmoremutedimpact.


39/98


Exhibit3.1:AssessingRisksintheMarketAssessments

BaseandAlternativeCases ImpactofAlternativeCases RisksAssessed

Retirement

BaseCase=highandrising

replacementdemandsrelatedto

bothlabour

force

loss

and

limitedretirement

AlternativeCase=labourforce

lossesonly

ReplacementDemandwouldbe

almostdoubledthenational

impactofextendedretirement

EngineersLost

to

the

Workforce

BaseCase=48,104

AlternativeCase=50,862

Marketsbecomenotablytighter

forolderoccupationsmostlyin

thelateryears. InBCand

Albertawhere

markets

are

tight,

retirementpatternscouldcreate

shortagesinhalfthemarketsin

mostyears.

PostSecondaryEnrolment

BaseCase=TrendIncrease

AlternativeCase=Discouraged

youthandlowerproportionof

populationenrolled

Discouragedyouthandlimited

arrivalsofvisastudentswould

causeanational,cumulativeloss

from2011to2019ofnew

engineeringstudentsof31,691

andalossoflabourforceentrants

of17,905

Fewmarketsareimpactedasthe

proportionofstudentsentering

thelabourmarketislimitedand

postsecondaryprogramscannot

beidentifiedassupplyingmany

markets(e.g.petroleum

engineers)

TradeShare

BaseCase=Canadasshareof

tradeconstantfrom2011to

2020

AlternativeCase=Canadas

shareoftraderising10%by

2020

Totalemployment

of

Canadian

engineersrisesfrom2011to2020.

BaseCaseIncrease=16,283

AlternativeCaseIncrease=54,000

Almostall

markets

become

tighterasemploymentrises. A

risingtradesharecombinedwith

extendedretirementconditions

wouldcreateshortagesin

Ontarioandexceedsupply

capacityintheWestSource:PrismEconomics&Analysis

TheseassumptionsareaddedtotheEngineersCanadaLabourMarketTrackingsystemandnewmarket

rankingsarecreated. Theimpactofeachalternativeisassessedbycomparingtherankingsagainstthe

basecase

conditions.

9

Thelabourforcelossanalysisrevealsthatfindingsareverysensitivetoretirementpatterns. Rankings

arelowerin50ofthe79marketswhenthehighlevelsofextendedretirementbehaviourarerelaxed

andreplacementdemandislimited. Theaddedlabourrequirementsforextendedretirementswill

createseriousshortagesinmostofthemarketsinBritishColumbiaandAlbertaandwillabsorbmanyof

thetemporaryforeignworkersthatareexpectedtojointheworkforceintheotherprovinces.

Retirementbehaviourandindustryandemployerpoliciesrelatedtoitwillbeamajordeterminantof

marketconditions.

Thesefindings

are

consistent

with

akey

theme

that

that

has

emerged

in

earlier

reports.

Market

conditionsareregularlyreportedtobedistinctlydifferentforyoungandolderengineers. New

graduatesreportdifficultyfindingworkandrecruitersreportanabundanceofapplicantsforentrylevel

positions. Incontrast,recruitingengineerswithoverfiveyearsofexperienceisdifficultandrequires

searchingoverlargerdistancesandturningtoconsultingsupportortemporaryforeignworker

9See Part 4 below for a complete discussion of the Base Case markets


40/98


arrangements. Thissplitinthemarketwillbeaggravatedbythelimitedretirementpatternsthatare

reportedinourresearchandareincludedintheBaseCaseassessmentsdescribedinPart4.

Incontrast,thediscouragedyouthassumptionhasamuchmorelimitedimpactonlabourmarket

rankings. Only14of80marketrankingsareimpactedbytheassumptionsoflowerpostsecondary

registrations.Thisisbecausearelativelysmallproportionofenrolledandgraduatingstudentsactually

jointhe

labour

market.

When

they

do

look

for

or

find

work,

it

is

hard

to

properly

allocate

their

participationacrossoccupations. Manyuniversityprogramscanbedirectlylinkedtospecificmarkets.

Thisincludescivil,mechanical,chemical,miningandcomputerengineering. Otherslikeelectricaland

electronicsposeproblemsrelatedtospecializationsforexampleallocatingaportionofthegraduates

toworkinutilitiesormanufacturing. Inothercases,likepetroleum,therearesomedesignated

graduatesbuttheirnumbersarefarbelowmarketrequirementsanditisclearthatgraduates(for

examplefromchemicalengineering)mayjointhesemarkets.

Forallthesereasonstheimpactsofshiftingpostsecondaryenrolmentonlabourmarketsishardto

specifyandislikelylimited. Thisfinding,combinedwiththeobservedchallengingjobsearchfor

graduates,focuses

attention

on

the

transition

from

school

to

work

for

engineers.


41/98


Part4 LabourMarketAssessments

Thissectionpresentstheassessmentsofthe79labourmarketssetoutinExhibit1.1.

Occupation by Region Engineers

Newfoundland&

Labrador

Nova

Scotia

NewBruns

wick

Qubec Ontario ManitobaSaskatc

hewanAlberta

British

Columbia

Civil engineers

Mechanicalengineers

Electrical &Electronicsengineers



X

Metallurgical andmaterials engineers

X X X X X


Geologicalengineers

X X X X

Petroleum

engineersX X X X

Aerospaceengineers

X X X X




Provincialsectionsincludeestimatesoftheworkforcein2011andcomparethemembershipofthe

provincialengineeringassociationswiththeEngineersCanadaLabourMarketTrackingSystem. Each

sectionpresentsasummaryoftheconditionsthatdriveemploymentprojections. Rankingsare

presentedforeachmarketandnotesareaddedtohighlightwherelocalconditionsdifferfromthe

nationalthemesdescribedinPart2. Exhibitssummarizetheconditionsforexpansionandreplacement

demandandforthechangestotheavailableworkforcerelatedtothepostsecondaryeducationsystem

andimmigration.


42/98


TheserankingsarefortheBaseCasescenario,reflectingthemostlikelycircumstancesintheviewofthe

researchteam. Eachscenarioassumes:

Highretirementtrendsthatincludebothlabourforcelossesandextendedretirements,

Trendincreasesinnewregistrationsinpostsecondaryprogramsasaproportionofthe

youngpopulation,and

Nogains

in

the

Canadian

share

of

international

engineering

consulting

work.

MarketassessmentspresentedinPart4belowarebasedonthesethreeassumptions.


43/98


B.C.Overview

TheEconomy

Thissectionintroducesprovincialresultsformajorengineeringlabourmarketsfrom20112020.

Labourmarketconditionsforengineeringoccupationswilldependonkeyeconomicfactors.Abrief

summaryof

expected

conditions

is

presented

here.

BritishColumbiaexperiencedaseveredropinGDPin2009of2.6percentbutalsohadasignificant

upswingin2010of3.2percent. EconomicgrowthinB.C.remainssolidin2012and2013at2.4percent

and2.6percentrespectivelyfromstronggrowthinplantandequipmentandcontinuedexports,

associatedwithmajorcapitalprojects.

Plantandequipmentinvestmentistheleadingcontributortogrowthinthemediumterm,averaging5.0

percentperyear. Withcommoditypricesatarelativelyhighlevel,investmentintheminingindustry

experiencesrapidgrowthastheindustryaddsnewcapacity.Theutilitiesindustryisexperiencingstrong

investmentgrowth

over

the

medium

term

with

several

hydroelectric,

wind

power,

and

electric

power

transmissionprojectsbeginningconstruction. Thetransportationandwarehousingindustryalsoplays

animportantroleindrivinginvestmentexpenditureswithseveralnewportexpansions,pipelines,rail

lines,andanewliquefiednaturalgasterminalbeingconstructedinKitimat.

Plantandequipmentinvestmentaverages2.6percentinthelongtermasseveralmining,utilities,and

transportationandwarehousingprojectsarescheduledforconstruction.Exportgrowthafter2015

continuesastheU.S.economyisassumedtoachievehigheraveragegrowthinthatperiod.

TheProvinciallabourmarkethasbeenrelativelyweakwiththeunemploymentratestayingabove7

percentuntil

Documents

Labour Market in Canada