Ongoing Developments In Weather Forecasting System In India Meteorological Department S.R. KalsiINDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENTNEW DELHI

OUTLINE Conventional Observational Networks Radar & Satellite Systems Forecast System Warning Dissemination Systems Future Plans

IMDS OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK

SURFACE OBSERVATORIES556HWSRs 20UPPER AIR OBSERVATORIES 110S-BAND CONVENTIONAL RADARS 8DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS 4INSAT-2E/METSAT/NOAA/METEOSAT SATELLITESSHIPS OF INDIAN VOLUNTARY OBSERVING FLEET 207BUOYS 13

Surface Observations

Upper Air NetworkRadiosonde Pilot Balloon

Radar NetworkX-Band RadarsThunderstorm warningS-Band RadarsCyclone warning

Vertical profile of Max(Z)_29May2002Vertical extent of clouds have crossed well beyond 18km. Reflectivity of more than 58dBZ was seen from 0804 to 1015UTC.

Numerical Models in IMD

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting & WarningsIMDs Radar network and satellite monitoring are such that no Cyclone can go undetectedCyclone Warnings are issued in Four Stages right from its early formation till its dissipationIMDs cyclone warning system is equivalent to that of any TC warning Centre in the world.TC warnings are issued to Central/State/District level authorities, Public (through Media), Ports/shipping, Fisheries, Road/Railway transports, Aviation, Industries, etc.Recent advancements have brought down the 24 forecast errors to less than 150 km. Concerted efforts are on to reduce the errors further.

Record Rainstorm in Bombay Santacruz (94)Colaba (7)Dharavi (49)Bhandup (81)Vihar Lake (104)Thane (74)Tulsi Lake (60)26 July, 2005

Chart1

-42.50.751.5

-2211.5

-131.750.75

0.80.610.5

1.2512.251.25

1.20.81.2-0.5

0.750.6-0.15-0.3

-2-3-2-1.5

MD 28-4 JULY

MTC 28-4 JULY

MDD 29-31 JULY

NO MTC OVER GUJ., VERY HIGH RAINFALL OVER Mah. And Gij.

LEVELS

ANOMALIES( C)

Thermal profile of depressions and MTC

Chart2

0.90.7

19.37

400.126.5

667.726.5

768.833.1

88533.1

89657.1

944.273.4

SANTACURZ

CLOABA

Time in IST from 26 July 1130 hrs to 27 July 0830 hrs

Cumulative Rainfall (mm)

Chart3

0.90

18.47

381.819.5

267.66.6

100.10

116.20

1124

48.216.3

SANTACURZ

CLOABA

Time in IST

Cumulative Rainfall

Sheet1

dmtcddnomtc

1000-42.50.751.5

850-2211.5

700-131.750.75

5000.80.610.5

3001.2512.251.25

2501.20.81.2-0.5

2000.750.6-0.15-0.3

100-2-3-2-1.5

Sheet2

11300.90.73hourly0.90

143019.3718.47

1730400.126.5381.819.5

2030667.726.5267.66.6

2330768.833.1100.10

023088533.1116.20

053089657.11124

0830944.273.448.216.3

mumbai hvy rainfall

Chart4

116.8

103.6

99.8

99.6

98.9

98.7

98.5

94.4

SANTACURZ

RECORD HOLDING STATIONS OVER INDIA

Cumulative Rainfal CMl

Sheet3

6/5/2004(AMININ DIVI.)116.8

14/6/1876(CHERRAPUNJI)103.6

12/7/1910(CHERRAPINJI)99.8

18/6/1899(KASAULI)99.6

10/7/1952(MOUSIMRAM)98.9

2/7/1941(DHARAMPUR, Vaslsad, Guj.)98.7

13/9/1974(CHERRAPINJI)98.5

27/7/2005(SANTACURZ, MUMBAI)94.4

26 July, 2005 (09 UTC)

1 May, 2005 (12 UTC)

10 N12 N14 N16 N18 NR

Dissemination of WarningsRadio, Television, Print Media, Telephone, Fax, Telex, Telegrams, Police Wireless.IMD Website : http://www.imd.ernet.inIMDRAS workstations using World Space technology are being introducedCyclone Warning Dissemination System (CWDS) 250 Analog 100 Digital

FUTURE PLANS

MAJOR NEW INITIATIVES

Observational Network

IMD has drawn plans to upgrade and strengthen its observation network in the coming years.

Nation wide network of Automatic weather Stations (AWS) with spatial resolution of 50km

Nation wide Doppler Weather Radar network

New ObservationsThe salient features are To install 4000 Satellite based Automatic Rain gauge station To install1000 Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface Stations To replace existing S-band Cyclone Detection Radars by Doppler Weather Radar 50 Storm detection radars (X-band) 52 upper-air (RS/RW) stations 45 Wind Profilers Strengthening of environmental monitoring stations Augmentation of earthquake monitoring Units Strengthening of radiation monitoring network

NETWORK OF DOPPLER WX RADARSPROPOSED DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS

EMBED Origin50.Graph

_1186399393.bin

UPPER AIR STATIONS37 Nos. UPPER AIR STATIONSTo equip 5 stations with imported GPS Sonde and continue development of indegenous Sonde RSRWMULTIMETSAMEERIMSSRINAGARPATIALANEW DELHILUCKNOWGORAKHPURPATNASILIGURIGUWAHATIMOHANBARIAGARTALAGWALIORJODHPURAHMEDABADKOLKATABHOPALRANCHIMUMBAIAURANGABADNAGPURJAGDALPURBHUVANESHWARVISHAKHAPATNAMMACHLIPATNAMHYDERABADGOACHENNAIMANGALOREBANGALOREKARAIKALCOCHINTHIRUVANANTHAPURAMMINIICOYAMINIRAIPURPORT BLAIR

PILOT BALLOON STATIONS62 Nos. PILOT BALLOON STATIONSSupplement with 5 Wind Profilers and assess the impact of their induction

Weather Forecasting

Implementation of High resolution forecast models

Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture

500 District-wise Information Centres

NUMERICAL MODELS (2005-2010)

Data Assimilation System : 3D VAR ( Global & Regional AWS and Satellite data)Global Model : To run upto 72 hours for regional model boundary conditions (Daily two runs) Res. T256Meso-scale model (00, 06, 12 & 18 UTC initial conditions) for RSMC domain 30S 50N / 25E 130E) Res. 0.50 Local Weather Forecast at Res. 0.250 Cyclone Model for Track Prediction at 10 kmsStorm Surge Model.

EARLY WARNING DISSEMINATION SYSTEMAn Integrated System for all weather hazards and Tsunamis.Issues to address User Requirements, Timelines, Contents (Text and Visuals), Language, Uncertainties.Dissemination - Through Digital CWDS Systems with Centralized Uplink at Delhi + One Standby uplink at Chennai.8 Control Rooms at Warning Centres with Workstations togenerate Warning Text, Remotely activate Uplink through VSATs.1000 receivers in disaster prone areas with Siren, Voice announcement, PC/FAX connectivity for text messages, acknowledge transmitter, in-built key pad for short message transmission. 128Kbps data transfer rate.solar powered battery back-up.

Collaborative Programmes

National Organisations: NCMRWF, IITM, IIT Delhi, IISc, IAF, Indian Navy, DAC, SASE (DRDO) etc.

International Organisations: WMO/ESCAP, SAARCWorld Bank Assistance ProgrammeUKMO, FSU, IRI, NCEPUSAID ProgrammeIMD-SMRC on Development of Cyclone Track Prediction Model

CONCLUSIONSIMD has the capacity to monitor and forecast Large scale features very well through the existing infrastructure To improve nowcasting/very short range forecasting of meso scale events India needs the following :-

Automatic Rain gauges 4000 Nos. Automatic Weather Stations -1000 Nos, - part time stations to be converted on higher priority

Doppler weather radars: 57 to be provided (existing 4) 4 more being planed for procurement (2 indigenous + 2 imported)

Wind Profiler 5 Nos- in pilot phase

To equip at least 5 upper air stations with imported state-of-the-art sonde till improvement of indegeneous sonde.-Immediate action to be started by IMD Acquisition and deployment of high power computing platform for running operational Global, Regional & Mesoscale models.

A proposal for seeking the Govt.s approval is being pursued vigorously.

26 July, 2005 (12 UTC)