ONE MINNESOTA CONFERENCESusan Brower, Minnesota State DemographerJanuary 2015

GROWTH IN MINNESOTA’S“OLDER ADULT” POPULATION

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

85 55 71 67

47 91

- - - - -

Change in older adults, age 65+ (T-housands)

GROWTH IN MINNESOTA’S“OLDER ADULT” POPULATION

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

85 55 71 67 47

91

285

335

97 66 56

Change in older adults, age 65+ (T-housands)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

2030-2040

32,000

38,000

25,000

8,000 4,000

13,000

AVG. WORKERS ADDED PER YEAR

MINNESOTA, 16+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

Real GDP

growth

Working-age

population growth

Labor force

participation

Productivity growth

STATES’ RISING ED ATTAINMENT & GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY

Source: EPI analysis of unpublished total economy productivity data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Productivity and Costs program, state employment data from BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, and college attainment data from the Current Population Survey basic monthly microdata

BLACK, LATINO AND ASIAN POPULATIONS GROWING RAPIDLY

Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000Populations of color, MN

American IndianAsianBlackHispanicTwo or more races

Source: Tabulated by MN Compass from Minnesota Department of Education data

GAPS IN EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT AND

ATTAINMENT EXIST ACROSS RACIAL GROUPS

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MN HISTORY:MORE 65+ THAN SCHOOL-AGE BY 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

18-2465+5-17

General Fund Expenditures2014-2015

Within Health & Human Services

K-12 Ed-ucation

41%

Health & Human

Services31%

Higher Education

7%

All other areas19%

Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 bill ion)

Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 bil l ion)

MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS WILL CHANGE DEMAND FOR PUBLIC

SERVICES

Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE…BUT NOT COMPLETELY

DETERMINE IT

Our demographic future is sobering IF we continue to adhere to the policies and institutions that we have built for our demographic past.

Aging trend will bring new opportunities; license to innovate new pathways to well-being.