東アジア共同体構想の虚実Prospects for an East Asian Community : An IIlusion or a Practical Proposition?

1 Preface

The first East Asian Summit was held

in Malaysia in December， 2005. The subject

on an East Asian Community came up

for discussion， which is a long-term goal，

since the Prime Minister of Malaysia， the

host nation， H.E. Ahmed Badawi proposed

a“Community Charter"， which includes

the vision for an East Asian Community

(EAの.EAC itself is a conception for an institution of ideals. To promote and realize

it， community member coun出esneed to have

a practical road map for the shared standard

values and ideas by which the security issues，

economic issues and socio・culturalissues

of the community are institutionalized. To

be frank， among East Asian countries there

are at present many difficulties 1， such as

historical understanding， textbook problems，

and territorial problems between Japan and

China as well as Japan and Korea. Among

Japan-Korea， Japan-China， and China-Taiwan，

in the above-mentioned fields respectively，

the reverse direction of vector (momen加m)

comes into play. On the other hand， as far

絹巻康史(拓殖大学商学部教綬)

as Japan and Korea concemed， they have to

be more or less consistent with their alliance

with the USA. Much more time is needed to

overcome these difficulties.

This paper2 presents the prospects for an

East Asian Economic Integration as the first

step to a practical approach towards creating

an EAC. The success of economic integration

would lead to much broader integration in

fields inciuding social， cultural and political

aspects， which bears fruition in regional

integration智Teements(RIAり Isit feasible to

establish an East ASUl Economic Integrati白1

or East ASUln Community as being a match

for NAFTA (FTAA in the future) or the EU ?

n Globalism and Regionalism

Both globalism and regionalism have

come to coexist in the global economy. The

two trends have been creating a dynamic

global transition in the trading system and

investment activities. In the same way， Prof.

K. Igawa and Prof. B. Kim expressed that

“Although the globalization of economic

activities is the main仕end，regionalism in the

form of regional economic integration also

1 Jones， D. M. and Smith M. L， R. ASEAN and East Asian IntemationaJ ReJations， RegionaJ DeJusion (Cheltenham， UK: Edward Elgar，

2006)， p.74-77. 2 On the occasion at the invitation of 61h World Knowledge Fon皿 2005held in Seoul， Korea， the au出ordelivered a speech on the

basically same ∞ncept， but it emphas日edspecially Korean role.

国際商取引学会年報 2007 vol.9 I 33

東アジア共同体構想の虚実Prospects for an East Asian Comm山lity:An Illusion or a Practica! Proposition?

began to develop around the end of the 20th

century and has grown more rapidly in the

21 st century" 3. Traditionally international

trade and foreign direct investment that

have been explained are based on the

presupposition of national border. However

recent developments in so called borderless

economic activities have found solution that

is able to be negotiated more appropriate1y

in the context of multiple nations and/or

regions which economically have no p01itical

implications of borders than the context of

existing national borders.

FTA arguments often discuss the costs

and benefits. Coun仕iesexcluded企omanFTA

might suffer 企omtrade diversion effects on

one side， and countries that enjoy costs and

benefits in institutional econornic integration

could change the emphasis from static trade

creation and diversion effects to dynamic

effects of accumulation of total economic

activities on the other.

Globalism means that the expansion

of borderless economies ignores politica1

implications of national borders， and

regionalism means the legal企ameworkfor the

expansion of liberal economies. Regionalism

is realized， in most cases， by FTAs， to

discriminate against non-contracting parties.

This discrimination has been approved as an

exception to MFN principle by the recognized

interpretation of WTO/GATT 1994， Article

XXIV.

There are several dimensions of

globalism， including the integration of

trade and financial transactions， which are

supported by advancement. Globalism can be

found勺rpicallyin the transnational activities

of multi-national ente中rises，and the fruits

of these efforts can be maximized in the

企ameworkof regionalism.

Regionalism is a legally well-recognized

fact and nowadays is realized within RegionaJ

Integration Agreements (RL勾 includingFTA，

regional economic integration and/or regional

communities. More白an200 active RlAs have

been concluded， and with quite a few more

RlAs under negotiation among the 148 WTO

member countries and/or territories. RlAs as

regional and multilateral institutions are the

most effective way to take advantage of the

fast-changing borderless economic and trade

realities being deployed on a global scale.

Although it takes much time for the WTO'

s 148 members to reach consensus on policy，

RlAs with the limited number of members can

make a decision more readily and e伍ciently，

thereby saving time.

E Economic Dynamics of East

Asia

First of all， let us compare the economic

power of East Asia with the rest of the world.

We have to pay attention to the fact that the

area of East Asia is not institutionalized yet

in any sense of integration and/or comrnunity

like the EU and NAFTA.

3 Igawa， K. and Kim， B. East Asun Free Trade Ag:陪'ement-s，朗 tegICAspects for Japan: East Asian Economic Regionalism -Fc民間bijitiesand Challenges (Dordrecht， The Netherlands， Springer， 2005)， p.21

34 I国際商取引学会年報 2007 vol.9

仁hart1. Population & GNI of Enlarged EU， NA円A，East Asia (ASEAN+3)

COMP，線おON 門誌rsGNIω錨踊制。Yea町:2002 α湾事阻泳施。EU (25 countries) 450 8.394

NAFTA (3 countries) 420 11.407

East Asian Economies 1.986 6.513

ASEAN 530 565

Japan 127 4.265

China 1.281 1.209

Korea 48 473

GNI : Gross National Income Data : Taniguchi. M. !nternationaJ Finance JournaJ， Vol.1148 (2005). Tokyo

According to the above table， by GNI

and population we can get an idea of East

Asia's economic dynamics and market power.

Establishing various functional economic

institutions such as FTAs andJor economic

integration agreements in East Asia， and

by opening markets and facilitating the

smooth transfer of the production factors，

the economic dynamics of East Asia can be

developed to a larger extent.

It is well known that FTA brings

about static and dynamic effects in trade

and international investment through the

abolition of仕adebarriers and the removal of

restrictions on access to open markets. The

static effects are referred to as trade creation，

while the dynamic effects are considered FDI

inducement. Furthermore， FTAs cover a broad

range of issues， including labor movements

and trade in services， as well as developing

tie-ups in structural reforms in domestic

絹巻康史

indus仕iesandJor economies.

W Intra-regional Trade

The East Asian economy has become

definitely integrated， as experienc巴dde

facto integration recently regardless of non-

existence of institutional framework. It is

truly shown by a chart in the next page that

intra-regional trade ratio have drastically

increased. The de facto economic integration

in East Asia has reached a high degree of

intra-regional trade 4. According to the chart，

in 2002， the in甘かregionaltrade ratio of East

Asia (-・-)shows nearly 55%， which

surmounts the 45% ofNAFTA (-・一)and

closes in on the 60% of the EU (15一企一).

Although approximately half of the trade

in East Asia is carried out at present intra-

regionally， institutionalized regionalism was

at first slow to put down its roots in that area.

As the economies grew and the supply-

side s戸lergygained momentum， Asian trade

not only expanded rapidly， it also advanced

ahead of regional conventions like the AFTA

and the APEC forum. There was a steady

growth in the internal Asian market and，

therefore， growth in intra-regional trade.

Regarding source countries of FDI to

East Asia， the aggregate amount by intra-

regional inves凶lentcovers 44.8% during the

period from 1985 to 2003， and of this total

China accounted for 66.4%.

Following the implementation of an

import-substituting industrialization s仕ategy

， Kim山富.F. 1ne Deve!.ψ'meotofFragm白血tiooio East Asia and Its丘l1plicatioosfor F羽怠 Hiratsuka.D. East ASUl S de FacωE叩 '110ID1CIntegratioo (New York， Palgrave M配 millan.2006). p.17

国際商取引学会年報 2007 vol.9 I 35

東アジア共同体構想の虚実Prospec岱 foran East Asian Communi旬。Anlllusion or a Practical Proposition?

Chart 2. Intra-regional trade ratio

|-*" EぉtAsia ...... EU15 -tr-印25 ...... NAFTA I (%)

70

62

54

46

38

30 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Year)

Remarks : East Asia ( ""*ー)includes Japan， China， Korea， Hong Kong， Taiwan and ASEAN-l 0 Data : METI， Japan ・TsuushouHakusho" 2005

in the first stage of East Asian economic

development， the economies of the region

adopted export-oriented strategies aimed at

achieving high performing economies by

promoting international trade. The more

trade increases， the more FDI is required

to equip various kinds of facilities to

produce indus加 alizedgoods. FDI promotes

intemational仕adeand vice versa. The relation

between international trade and FDI is

interdependent.

We can accept the fact that almost half of

仕adeand inves紅nenthas been self-circulated

within the in仕a-regionofEastAsia. In another

words， in仕a-regionalstructural transformation

has been carried out. This has consequentially

led to brisk expansion of intra-regional trade

and investment. East Asian regionalism

therefore， was essentially market-led and un-

institutionalized. We can find herein the de

facto econornic integration in East Asia.

With the rapid growth of East Asian

economies， we must not forget that the

36 I国際商取引学会年報 2007 vol.9

activities of transnational enterprises

(TNE) led to regional production networks

with market-led economic dynamics. The

economic structure of NIEs， ASEAN-4，

and China underwent substantial structural

transformation， which had a direct bearing

on factor endowments under wide-ranging

participation of the private sector， including

TNEs. This change of factor endowments

as a matter of course ushered in structural

transformation in the manufacturing sector，

followed by the service sector.

V The Position and Role of

Japan

East Asian countries are devoted

much time and efforts to n巴gotiationsof

bilateral FTA and some of them have been

concluded. Japan has signed an FTA (EPA)

with Singapore and Mexico， and endorsed it

with Thailand， and recently reached a basic

agreement with Malaysia and the Philippines.

But the negotiation between Korea and Japan

絹巻康史

仁hart3.仁urrentStatus of FTA Surrounding East Asian Countries (2006)

AgJ明mentSigned む'nderN唱。御，tion U副総滋誠司y

AFfA (1993) Japan-Korea Japan-Australia

Singapore-New Zealand (2001) Japan-Thai Japan-India

Japan-Singapore (2002) Japan-Indonesia Korea-Australia

Singapore-Australia (2003) Japan-ASEAN Korea-New Zealand

Singapore-EFfA (2003) Korea-ASEAN Singapore-Chile

Singapore-USA (2004) Korea-Singapore Singapore-Taiwan

Kor巴a-Chile(2004) Korea-USA ASEAN-India

China-Hong Kong (2004) Singapore-Canada ASEAN-USA

Taiwan-Panama (2004) Singapore-Mexico ASEAN-EU

Japan-Mexico (2005) Singapore-India ASEAN-CER

Japan-Malaysia (2006) Thai-Singapore

Japan-Philippine (2006) Thai-USA

Thai-Australia

Hong Kong-New

Zealand

China-ASEAN

Japan-Chile

Remarks : CER: Australia. New Zealand Date : Based on Ito. K. and Tan出a.A. East Asian Community and the Course of Japan (Tokyo. NHK Shuppan. 2005) 164田 drevised byau出or

is at a standstill.

We can point out some reasons for

increase in FTAs 5. As an international

motivation， it pursues making sure of trade

markets and acquiring the opportunity of

export for parties' own enterprises. Secondly，

it takes a shorter period of time to reach an

agreement for liberalization of trade in the

case of FTA tban WTO. Furtbermore， FTAs

are able to adopt tbe rules of some fields like

foreign inves伽lentexcluded from WTO.

Expectations for the Japanese economy，

for example， were high for a substantial

and beneficial FTA with Thailand， a good

partner in trade and investment， but the deal

has ended up a deep disappointment. Its

main cause can best be summed up in the

following question: why did Japan take the

5 Ura回， S. Economic Growth Led byηョdeand fnves加 entand RegionaJ fntegI甜 on:Ito， K. and Tanaka， A. East Asian Comm四 ，jtyand the Co山 田 offapan (Tokyo， NHK Shuppan， 2005). Kinumaki， Y. FTA S，白 tegyof China : The Researches in Management and Accounting (Tokyo， Takushoku University， 2005)

国際商取引学会年報 2∞7 voL9 I 37

東アジア共同体構想の虚実Prospec岱 foran East Asian Commu凶ty:An lllusion or a Practical Propositionフ

line of least resistance? In other words， Japan

was unwilling to open up its market for Thai

agricultural products. The reason that rice

fell off of the trade agenda from the very

beginning becomes apparent.

The same context is found in the

negotiation stage of FTA， which was

discontinued between Japan and Korea since

the November in 2004. The main cause ofthe

impasse of the negotiation has been Japan's

reluctance to make concessions on farm仕ade

in response to Korea's desire to increase its

agricultural and fisheries export to Japan. The

author believes that Asian regionalism would

most likely take a new旬rn，if a m句orFTA

like Japan-Korea FTA get signed. The same is

indicated by researchers 6 .

It appeases that Japan often shows

reluctance， resistance and unwillingness to

open its market. Although Japan boasts high

productivity in its manufacturing sector， it

has made little headway in reforming its

inefficient agricultural sector. Frustrated by

these productivity gaps， Japan has been forced

to settle for unsatisfactory trade deals in areas

where its industries are highly and globally

most competltlve.

Japan has to develop tie-ups that include

structural reforms in domestic industries，

instead of handling them with stop-gap

measures. Serious structural reforms in

Japanese domestic economy are needed to

lower the barriers for the en仕Yof agricultural

imports and foreign workers (labor

movements).

The Japanese govemment has a serious

problem in that it still uses a traditional

formula for intemational negotiations based

on a sectionalized govemment structure， in

which each ministry and agency deal with

their respective areas of talks independently.

This has led to inefficiency in negotiating

trade strategies with other countries.

Consequently， Japan has fallen badly behind

in the accelerating global trend toward FTAs.

What is the positive role of Japan

regarding FTAs and East Asian economic

integration? Japan is in a position to supply

globally competitive production factors

such as highly-trained personnel， capital

goods， production technique， capital， and

potential markets. It is inevitable that the

private business sector， especially TNEs，

need to appeal to the Japanese govemment to

appreciate the necessity for structural reform

through FTAs， especially in light of the

recent successfu1 negotiations of an FTA with

Mexico.

The J apanese government must find a

drastic diplomatic strategy without being

negatively affected by such unfortunate

incidents as the anti-Japan demonstrations

in China broken out in April 2005. A step

by step approach must surely be pursued to

attain ASEAN + 3 economic integration.

The Japanese government needs to become

conscious of their responsibility as the world'

s second-ranking country in terms of GDP，

and the subsequent self-confidence of having

this distinction. To avoid the sectionalized

6 Baldwin， R.E. Asian Regionalism-Promises and Pit1告'11s:Ahn， C.Y. East Asian Economic Regionalism (Do池田ht，Springer 2005)， p.166

38 I国際商取引学会年報 2007 vol.9

government s仕uc旬resin which each minis仕y

and agency (ac回allybureaucrats) deal with

their respective areas independently， the Prime

Minister's s仕ongleadership should be firmly

established.

羽The Position and Roles of

Countries Other than Japan

The East Asian countries have enjoyed

economic expansion through an increase

in inter-regional trade and having received

FDI. East Asian successful economies

and their performance can be described as

follows: after Japan， NIEs were the first

and the most success白1export-led or trade-

induced growths， followed by the ASEAN-4

and subsequently China. But the uneasy

diplomatic relations among Japan， China

and Korea are an obstacle to East Asian

regional integration. It is true that there are

some impediments which have arisen from

definite events like history textbook screening

procedures， historical understanding，

territorial issues and so on. As long as the

concerned parties recognize these issues as

mostly important national subjects， we may

expect也atthe parties prefer to leave regional

integration for the next item on the agenda.

Should any one among the three parties

not participate白lly，any satisfactory system

for East Asian regional integration could not

be formed. The concerned parties should

recognize that the culture and customs differ

from country to country， and each of the

parties maintains different political and social

絹巻康史

systems， respectively. On the assumption of

the above， government-based discussions

and negotiations should be started. It is

impossible to allow one side to ignore the

others' concerns. To avoid further tension， the

concerned parties should exercise wisdom

and have the courage to quickly return to

the negotiating table and work out plans for

future-oriented developments.

This paper intends to indicate the roles of

China， Korea and ASEAN， respectively.

1 . China 7 must not only accept and

benefit from the merits of export-trade， but

also needs to induce more FDI. It has to

have the long term perspective to reform the

economic s仕uctureof state-owned enterprises

and the agricultural sector， which are

resulting in a large number of jobless people.

Consequently， China has to devote itself to

the international concerted actions， such as

econornic integration. In other words， as long

as China maintains a political structure of

socialism and adheres to a dictatorship by

the communist party， showing disapproval

towards renouncing any part of its national

rights， it would not be able to join and help

to establish a regional community with both

Japan and Korea thilt maintains the national

idea ofLiberalism and Democracy8.

The establishment of the ECC (later

the EC and then the EU) is based on the

political incentive， like the German-French

rapprochement (reconciliation)， including a

secぽ ityand defense framework. Suppose出at

7 Kinumaki， Y.l'羽 StrategyofChina: The Researches in Management回 dAc∞凹ting(Tokyo， Takushoku University， 2005). 8 Watanabe， T. Jap.却 昔Policytow

東アジア共同体構想の虚実Prospects for an East Asian Comm山lity:An Illusion or a Practical Proposition?

France dealt with East Germany (at that time)

instead of the then West Germany; discussions

would not facilitate any practical approach

to the EU community. It was the main reason

why a democratic country like France and a

socialistic coun仕ylike the then East Germany

did not both share the same ideology and

standard of values. In the similar context， the

East Asian community is far from establishing

itself through cooperation under different

national ideas.

At Laos meeting held in July 2005， the

ASEAN members decided to hold a second

summit in one of the ASEAN member

countries. They apparently did not want

Beijing to take the initiative in preparing for

the organization of the East Asian Community.

Japan has called for the participation of 1ndia

and Australia in the framework to dilute the

power of China. That is also in line with the

desire ofUSA.

2. There exists one question: is it

feasible for China， Japan and Korea jointly to

display something like rapprochement which

France and Germany have shown to realize

the EU， or such leadership， to unite East Asian

nations?“No" is a common-sense response.

Although joint work or collaboration by

the three powers is at present difficult，

expectations for Korea's role is considerably

high.

It is Korea that has no historical load

factor for China and other East Asian

coun仕iesin the connection with the past war.

Besides， Korea and Japan share the same

national policy as liberalism and democracy，

40 I国際商取引学会年報 2007 vo1.9

and resemble each other in industrial

S住uc旬res.Therefore it is much expected that

Korea is able to become a mediator between

China and Japan， while keeping the balanced

relationship with other East Asian coun出es.

From the view-point of Japanese business

circles and scholars， it seems more realistic

that Japan might prefer to accomplish a Japan-

Korea FTA as a first approach to any East

Asian multi-lateral regional tie. It means that

a Japan-Korea FTA seems to be a basic factor

for East Asia economic integration. One

m吋orFTA， like a Japan-Korea FTA， might

encourage other members to participate in

inter-regional integration.

It is true that Korea shows sympathy

with China in denouncing Japan concerning

its historical understanding， textbook issues

and so on. Apart from this， Korea is in a

position to talk with China and bring forward

a proposal for East Asian regional economic

integration toward a future-oriented view-

point. It shall be a historically appraised

action. It is out of the question whether

Japan or China is excluded in order to realize

regional integration. Given the absence of

either party， integration does not make any

sense.

3. ASEAN at present steadily and

faithfully continues to make efforts for

integration at various levels to strengthen its

internal and external ties. 1t has accomplished

several bilateral and multi-lateral FTAs， and

has ASEAN + 3 FTA on its mind. There

exists a view that ASEAN is able to become

也e“Hub"of East Asian regional integration.

It is a sp1endid idea， wbicb is undeniab1e.

In contrast， tbere exists an opinion wbicb

criticizes East Asian dip10matic s叩01idarity9.

But i抗ti凶ssure1y rea1istic t白ba剖tASEANc悶a阻np1ay

a ro1e of

wide1y r問egiona1integration tbrougb various

FTA commitments with China， Japan and

Korea.

四A Dreamy Illusion or a

Practical Actuality?

1. Community and Integration

Herein “community" refers to a trans-

nationa1 entity sucb as tbe EU， to whicb

member countries bave renounced some parts

of their nationa1 rigbts and/or sovereignty.

In tbe case of tbe EU， tbe negotiation rigbt

for inteIτlationa1 trade， cuηency sovereignty，

tbe rigbt to decide macroeconomic po1icies

and so fortb， bave been transferred to tbe

organizationa1 secretariat in Brusse1s. Member

countries sbare tbe same standard of va1ues

as 1iberalism， democracy，ぬndamenta1bum:m

rigbts， tbe rule of 1aw， and many otbers.

仁hart4. B. Balassa's FTA toward economic integration

絹巻康史

“FTAs" covers tbe various concepts

企omtbe企ee仕adearea and/or agreement in a

na汀owsense to tbe economic integration in a

broad sense. It is well known tbat Prof. Be1a

Ba1assa defined and divided FTA (企eetrade

area) into five pbaseslO as sbown on the next

page. Herein， we may rep1ace FTA (area) witb

FTA (agreement).

In a free-trade area， tariffs and

quantitative restrictions between tbe

participating countries are abolisbed.

Examp1e; tbe AFTA (ASEAN Free-trade

area) estab1isbed in 1992， and NAFTA (North

American Free-trade area) in 1994. Those

bave become into effectuation of resp巴ctive

FTAs 1iterally in a na汀 owsense.

Regarding tbe EU， most of tbe

participating countries bave renounced tbeir

Cぽ rencysovereignty in 1999 and adopted tbe

common cuロency“Euro".It means tbat tbe

EU has estab1isbed supra-nationa1 autbority

for tbe cuηency“Euro" and is approacbing

toward tota1 economic integration， wbicb we

may say is equal to community.

υlreCtIOn 01 S汀巴ngtntowaras mtegratIon

ぬrIft' 切rlft's factor national supamuめ-modtiRoYnai quantitative 問ualiza経on movements economic

rE渇trictionsmnaBgEaernnsbt em

res住ictionshumpoonMdzeas Uon a加Iition a加lition se凶ng-up

free-trade area 。customs union 。 。common market 。 。 。economic union 。 。 。 。

total economic integration 。 。 。 。 。9 Jones， D.M. and Smi血 M.L.R.ASEAN and East Asian 10前田tiooalRc/atioos: RcgiooaJ Dc/usioo (Cheltenham， Edward Elgar， 2006)，

p.162.

10 Bal出 sa，B. Thc Theory of Ecooomic 10館'lfI'BtJω (lll凹ois，Rich町dD. lrwin， Inc.1961)， 2姐 dsummarized by au出or

国際商取引学会年報 2∞7 voL9 I 41

東アジア共同体;構想の虚実

Pros戸ctsfor an East Asian Community: An Illuslon or a Practical Proposltion?

2. The Core for Regional Integration

Incidentally， FTAs (企ee仕adeagreements)

are the regional agreements which aim to

abolish tariffs and lower non-tariff barriers

for deregulation covering trade in services，

FDIs， labor movements and so forth. It is

甘uethat FTAs constitute the important parts

of regional economic integration， but is not

an authentic enough agreement to form a

community like the EU， which takes away

a part of sovereignty from membership

coun住les.

Economic integration implies not only

FTAs， in a narrow sense， but also socio-

cultural exchanges including a wider range of

labor movements， protection of intellectual

property rights， an adoption of common

competition policies (e.g. fair trade and anti-

trust law) and so forth. But it also implies

neither the仕a由化rof national sovereignty nor

the formation of a supra-national authority.

The following table shows the tracks of

the movement towards EAC.

The Asian countries have a complex and

diverse mix of cultures， religions and political

systems. No one expects the creation of EAC

to be easy. But it is true that Japan， China，

Korea and ASEAN have already started joint

work on the arrangement like CMI (Chiang

仁hart5. The Movement towards East Asian仁ommunity

Nov. 1989 APEC started

Dec. 1990 Mahathir， Prime Minister of Malaysia advocated a conception of EAEG

Jan. 1992 Establishment of AFfA was agreed

Nov. 1993 The 1 st unofficial summit conference of APEC was held in Seatle

Jul. 1994 ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) started

Dec. 1995 South-East Asia Nuclear Free Zone Treaty was signed

Jul. 1997 Asian Currency Crisis， Japan advocated a plan of AMF， ASEAN+3 established

Dec. 1998 Kim， President of Korea proposed EA VG in the Summit Conference of ASEAN+3

May.2000 CMI started

Nov.2000 Kim， President of Korea proposed EASG in the Summit Conference of ASEAN+3

Jan. 2002 AFf A started

Oct. 2003 The Summit Conference of ASEAN agreed establishment of ASEAN Community

Dec. 2003 The Summit Conference between Japan and ASEAN adopted Tokyo Manifesto

Nov. 2004 ASEAN+3 decided opening of the 1 st Asian Sumrnit Conference

Dec. 2005 The 1st Asian Summit Conference was held in Kuala Lumpur， Malaysia

--2007 China proposing the next East Asian Summit Conference in Beijing

Date: T法ita.K. The陥yωwardsthe East As.i初 Comm凶 1ity(Tokyo， Chuo Univ. Press， 2006) 5

42 I国際商取引学会年報 2∞7 vo1.9

Mai Initiatives) to provide with assistance

countries which have run short of foreign

reserves. Such cooperative arrangements are

also being made to nurture the Asian bond

market， and to prepare against tsunami and to

fight piracy.

There is no need to hurry. The work for

organizing EAC is supposed to start with the

formation of a loose economic integration，

which is possibly an accumulation of FTAs or

the wider band of FTAs. But we know that the

networks of overlapping FTAs often lead to

complex and in位icateregulatory s仕ucωresfor

rules of origin as a syndrome of the so-called

spaghetti bowl effect合omthe view-point of

TNEs.

We have to seek a practical， tangible

and feasible step toward regional economic

integration. The author suggests two subjects:

(1) the energy security issue and， (2) the

environmental issue. In order to discuss these

two subjects， as the first step， so-called NEW

regional integration conferences should be

formed and， in the future， perhaps become

part of limited-purpose， regional and/or

economic integration.

These two issues are of the highest

concem for East Asian countries at present

and can not be solved by any single coun仕y

alone. Consequently， the concemed parties

would transfer their negotiation rights of

energy trade姐 doverseas exploitation to such

a regional integration conference. It would be

easier to cons加 ctan oil stockpiling bases for

emergencles.

In addition， the conference should have

the policy making right for transnational

絹巻康史

environmental issue. As the second step，

the conference should be brought up and

proliferated to be the core for regional

integration in East Asia. Japan has the

advanced technology for the energy

conservation as well as the protection of the

envrronment.

In this regard， who is/are the most

suitable and reliable leader(s) to chair the

above-mentioned conferences (the energy

security conference and the environmental

conference)? A Joint committee by Japan，

China and Korea should be formed first of all

and call ASEAN to join with them.

四 Conclusion

It is a dreamy illusion， for the present， to

look forward to establishing EAC. We need

some generations to establish EAC， as EU is

teaching us.

It is not realistic to refer to EAC， provided

that the community is endowed with a trans-

national entity or a supra-national authority， to

which member coun仕iesrenounce some parts

of their national sovereignty like currency

sovereignty in EU. The socialistic coun仕ylike

China and democratic coun位ieslike Japan and

Korea would not be able to share the same

standard of values as liberalism，おndamental

human rights， the rule of law姐 dso forth.

The establishment of the EEC (later

the EC and then the EU) was based on the

political incentive， like the German-French

rapprochement (reconciliation)， including a

security and defense企amework.But we can

not find such rapprochement between Japan

国際商取引学会年報 2007 vo1.9 I 43

東アジア共同体構想の虚実Prospects for an East Asian Cornmunity: An Illusion or a Practical Proposition?

and China as leading members， both of which

should be the core of the EAC. If anything，

there exists diplomatic and territorial

con企ontation.

For some time to come， East Asian

countries had better to widen and deepen de

facto econornic integration and to find hard but

possible ways to approach to an institutional

economic integration， and shall bring about

a sense of solidarity to form ASEAN+3 FTA

and most probably +6. These FTA should

be substantially effective agreements which

include agriculture回 deand labor movement，

and at the same time investment treaties and

intellectual properties.

For nurturing a sense of solidarity， the

author suggests that it is a realistic way to

set about the energy security conference and

the environmental conference to approach

towards any institutional bodies in East Asia.

441国際商取引学会年報 2007 vol.9

十 絹巻報告コメント

EACは、本質的な地域経済統合たりうる

か?というのが主題である。NAFTAやEU

に匹敵する経済統合は諸困難のため難しいと

の基本的見解が示されている。その試金石は、

日韓FTAであろうとされる。困難な調整を

伴う農業貿易を含み、中国を含むASEAN以

外の EACのメンバーとなる 3国の協力の要

になるという意味で、そのように主張される。

このような主張は、絹巻教授の韓国における

研究報告 (2005年暮れ)、拓殖大学の 『経

営経理研究』第 75号などに発表されている

ものを基礎にされている。基本的に、網巻教

授の見解に賛成である。

グローパリズムが、経済の拡大による国境

の意味の低下を指し、地域主義は自由経済の

拡大に必要な法的枠組み(悶A= Regional

Integration Agreement)に依存するものと

説明されている。その法的枠組みは、多く

の場合、町、Aにより実現されるといわれる。

とれは、やや独自の説明になるように思わ

れるが、絹巻教授は、 GATT/WTO第 24条

による MFN原則の例外扱いが要であり、特

定地域内の多角的制度として阻Aがもっと

も有効な施策であると主張される。現実に

は、グローパリズムは、法や制度などの公式

的なもの (dejure)より、 MNCsの活動に

より実現されうる(非公式、事実上の=de

facto)、 と主張される。

東アジアは、 EUやNAFTA並みの経済統

合ないし経済共同体ほどには法的に制度化さ

椿弘次 I(早稲田大学商学部教!受)I

れていない。絹巻教授は、政治、宗教、文化

などの諸要因においてアジアは多様であり、

国家主権の一部を制約するような「共同体J

は実現困難だろうとの見解を明らかにされて

いる。また、農業貿易は各国の利害が絡む大

きな課題であり、 FTAですらその障害になっ

ている。むしろ、アジア地域に共通の課題を

対象に協議し、協調する個別的協定の方が、

ECSCから始まった EUの歴史に照らし望ま

しいとも述べられ、環境、エネルギーなど問

題を協議する会議体を重視する乙とを提案さ

れている。

東アジアの域内貿易比率は着実に上がって

50%を超えている。経済成長は、この傾向

を強化するだろう。したがって、事実上の経

済統合が進んでいるとみなされている。すな

わち、輸入代替政策から輸出主導による経済

成長は、国際貿易を促進し、それは FDIの

活性化をもたらしている。この良循環が、貿

易 ・投資の域内循環のメカニズムを生み、相

当な経済構造の変化をもたらし、制度やイン

フラの調和の方向に進みつつあるので、実質

的に経済統合に貢献している。換言すれば、

東アジアの地域主義的な経済統合は市場主導

で行われつつある、とされる。

以上のような、論点及び主張は妥当と思わ

れる。しかしながら、若干の意見を述べたい。

FTAの貿易創出効果は静態的 (static)で、

動態的効果は FDIによって誘発されるとの

趣旨が示されているが、 FDIは、以前から投

国際商取引学会年報 2∞7 vol.9 I 45

絹巻報告コメント

資受け入れ国が輸出加工区を設けたり、直接

投資優遇策を提供して工業化を推進し、輸出

主導型の経済開発によって既に盛んになって

いた。したがって、経済的相互依存と貿易創

出の主因については、直接投資優遇の見返り

に現地生産の相当割合を海外に直接輸出する

ことを投資企業に課していたことに留意して

もよいのではないか。

また、 Institutionalizedregionalismの中

身が十分に明確でないが、上に述べた輸出主

導型の経済開発によって圏内市場が拡大し成

熟し、外国企業が経済特区や輸出加工区から

投資受け入れ国の国内市場に企業活動を拡大

していく場合に、東アジア地域における緩や

かな制度的調整や統ーが意味されているので

あれば、 2国聞の FTAよりも地域の多数国

からなる EPA(regionalism)への方途のほ

うが望ましいだろう。B.Balassaの所説に基

づくならば、長期的目標としての経済統合に

向けて、より多くの国が 1つの地域的EPA

に参加し、いくつかの課題を巡る共通の枠組

み作りを行うことが重要であろう。その意味

で、 ASEAN+中園、韓国、日本の共同会議

体 (conference)にオブザーノtーとしてオー

ストラリア、インド、ニュージーランドが加

わるのが望ましいと思う。その会議体での議

論が地域内における制度間競争を促し、企業

を主体とする「市場主導型J経済統合の環境

醸成に貢献するならば、絹巻教授の所説は説

得力者E増すだろう。

EACの加盟国と想定される日本の関税負

担率は 2%にも満たず (2005年現在)、貿

易障壁の削減の効果は、一部の微妙な分野を

除き、期待されるほど大きくない (11通商白

書 2006年版.lI178頁参照)。それは、具体

的には、 EPAによる原産地証明書の利用率

が低いことによっても裏付けられる。もちろ

46 I国際商取引学会年報 2007 vol.9

ん、日本では、農産品、加工度の低い一部の

製品に依然として関税率の高いものが見られ

るので、この関税の削減がEPAの重要な課

題の 1つになることは明らかである。しか

し、それと同等かそれ以上に重要な削減され

るべき障壁は、通関手続、その簡素化、国際

物流のインフラの効率化、各種基準、認証制

度の透明化などであろう。これらに伴う貿易

取引コストの削減が、貿易創出効果に重要な

関係を持っている。特に、コンテナ運送の発

展進化、総合物涜サービスの導入などの結

果、製品の最終価格に占める運送費用の比率

が関税率と同等かそれを少し上回る現状にお

いては、価格メカニズムに乗る関税、国際

運送賃の削減、引き下げによる貿易創出効

果と並んで、 WTOの付属協定書に盛られて

いるような非関税障壁、各国の経済制度の相

違などの削減、調和、透明化が重要であると

思う。経済統合の、企業の製造および取引活

動から見た利点は、いわゆる「ビジネスコス

ト」の低下にある。その視点に立てば、経済

統合が時間、費用、社会インフラの効率な

どにつながることが重要であろう (11通商白

書 2006年版.lI173頁参照)。網巻教授はそ

のことに言及されているし、その前提でなら

ばSpaghettiBowl現象についてやや楽観的

であることは理解できる。しかし、そうなら

ばFTAの用語の使用法は再検討が必要であ

ろう。他方で、市場経済と民主政への移行と

その間のバランスも EPAの課題であるから、

経済発展が民主政の定着と発展につながる制

度的保証が必要で、あろう。

，

img016kinumaki