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Basic Environmental Studies: Start-Up Seminar 2, No. 3, 6 November 2009
地球システムモデル:その概要Earth System Model: A Sketch
Hiroshi Kanzawahttp://cloud.hyarc.nagoya-u.ac.jp/index-jis.html
1
IPCC (2007)2
More complex Climate Models
Earth SystemModels
1990
2001
1995
2007
IPCC (2007)3
Earth System Models (ESMs)Unable to perform control experiments on the planet Earth as a whole
↓Numerical experiments using ESMs representing the real Earth system
Note: ESM = Earth in a computer = numerical model that integrates some governing equations based on physical and chemical laws controlling the earth system
・19th – early 20th century:
・0-dimensional simple models: Temperature change with doubling carbon dioxide
・1960’s:
・ 1-dimensional (height) radiative-convective equilibrium model: Temperature change with doubling carbon dioxide, etc. Manabe and Wetherald (1967)
・1-dimensional (latitude) energy balance model: ice-albedo feedback, etc. Budyko (1969); Sellers (1969)
・afterwards
・3-dimensional general circulation model (GCM): calculating temperature, winds or currents, precipitaion, cloud amounts, radiation, etc. of the atmosphere and/or ocean at each grid point of the model・3-dimensional Earth System Model (ESM)
4
Higher resolution of GCM-type climate models
1990
1995
2001
2007
IPCC (2007)5
Earth System Models (ESMs)Complex - Medium - Simple
EvolvingConceptual
ModelsObservations
Hoskins (1983) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. with minor corrections
Optimum Situation for Understanding
6
Hierarchy of Earth System ModelsComplex – Medium - Simple
- Processes
Climate (Atmosphere, Ocean, Land)
Carbon cycle
Atmospheric chemistry
Ice dynamics
- Spatial Dimensions0-dimensional
1-dimensional (e.g., latitude or height)
2-dimensional (e.g., latitude - height)
3-dimensi0nal (longitude - latitude - height) 7
Purpose: Glacial-Interglacial Transition(several 100 k years)
- Processes
Climate (Atmosphere, Ocean, Land)
Carbon cycle
Atmospheric chemistry
Ice dynamics
- Spatial Dimensions0-dimensional
1-dimensional (e.g., latitude or height)
2-dimensional (e.g., latitude - height)
3-dimensi0nal (longitude - latitude - height)8
渡邊誠一郎・檜山哲哉・安成哲三, 編 (2008): 新しい地球学:太陽-地球-生命圏相互作用系の変動学
21COE product
Climate – Ice dynamics
1-D energy balance model
9
渡邊誠一郎・檜山哲哉・安成哲三, 編(2008)
Climate – Ice dynamics– Carbon cycle
10
Purpose: Climate Change (several 100 years)
- Processes
Climate (Atmosphere, Ocean, Land)
Carbon cycle
Atmospheric chemistry
Ice dynamics
- Spatial Dimensions0-dimensional
1-dimensional (e.g., latitude or height)
2-dimensional (e.g., latitude - height)
3-dimensional (longitude - latitude - height)
Global warming problem in mind
11
Why such complex models ?Environmental problems of global warmingAnthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)
and aerosols (or aerosol precursor gases)
Increase in GHGs & aerosols in the atmosphere
Climate change (global & local)
Impact(影響)(global & local)
Adaptation (適応)or Mitigation(緩和)(global & local)12
診断と治療または医学と環境学の事Diagnosis & Treatment
Medical Science & Environmental Studies方法の問題または『皮膚科学講義』の事
『皮膚科学講義』(1941年)は、東京大学医学部の皮膚科の教授、太田正雄(1885-1945年)の講義録で、ガリ版で印刷し、学生に頒布されたものである。・・・・・・・・・ たとえば、次のような言葉がある。
「皮膚病の分類し難きは前に述べたが、今の處主として原因的基礎に立ち、その及ばざるものをば他の標準で補ひ、全体として便利であるやうな分類を以て我慢して置くより他にない」 ・・・・・・・・・
歴史的にみれば、分類の原理は、「病因学的」な方向へ向って進む。しかし現在の段階では、「他の標準」にも頼らざるをえない。 「他の標準」とは、一般
的に形態学、殊に組織学(顕微鏡的形態学)である。そこで本来性質の異る原因学的および形態学的な標準の適用範囲のつり合いという問題が生じ、その答えが「全体として便利」ということになるだろう。何のために便利なのか。 ・・・・・・・・・
簡単にいえば、医者の話だから、診断および治療の目的のために「便利」だということである。 ・・・・・・・・・
非専門の専門家:Shuichi KATO 加藤周一「言葉と人間」(1977)13
Mission-oriented
Curiosity-driven
最も役に立つ研究 = 最も基礎的な研究 ?
Challenges:やりがいのある課題
真鍋淑郎・神沢博 (2009): 科学的好奇心の先にあるもの. エコラボトーク (対談), 環 KWAN, Vol. 17
14
IPCC (2007)
Climate&
Atmospheric chemistry
15
Global-average radiative forcing estimates and rangesThe present (2005) minus the preindustrial era (1750)
IPCC (2007)16
‘MIROC’Climate Model
(Atm/Ocn GCM)
‘MATSIRO’Land Surf. Model(Vegetation/Soil)
‘SPRINTARS’Aerosol Model
(Sulfate, Carbons, Dust, Salt)
Radiation(Direct)
Cloud, Rain(Indirect)
Transport
‘ISORROPIA’Aerosol Thermodynamics(Nitrates-Sulfate-Ammonium)
‘CHASER’Atm.-Chem. Model
・O3-CH4-NOx-CO・VOC s・SOx
1. Land use change(cultivation)
①VOCsEmissions
②SOA formation
HNO3・SO4・NH4(+)・OH・O3
③Nitrates
2.Anthropogenic(Industry) Pollutant Emissions
NOx,CO,VOCs
・Soil Dust・BC/OC(POA)
GHGs
Heat, evap, radiat
Transport
Rain, Radiation
Chemistry-Aerosol-Coupled Climate Model(in CCSR/NIES/FRCGC GCM)
Sudo 17
Sudo HP 18
3-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM): Earth in a computer
CCSR homepage
climate system
higher resolution
grid point division
basic equation
19
.......)()(
........)(
)()()(
,
...),(........)(
0
........)(
........)(
31332123
3333
3
nnTkLnnnTkP
LPvny
nt
wnz
vny
unx
nt
nNMTRp
nRadvTy
Tt
gz
py
pfuvvy
vt
xpfvvu
yu
t
av
a
==
−+∂∂
−=∂∂
∂∂
−∂∂
−∂∂
−=∂∂
==
∂∂
−=∂∂
−∂∂
−=
∂∂
−−∂∂
−=∂∂
∂∂
−+∂∂
−=∂∂
ρρ
ρ
ρ
ρ
constratereactionklossproductionozoneLP
moleculeoxygenofdensitynumbernatomoxygenofdensitynumbern
ozoneofdensitynumbernairofdensitynumbern
numbersAvogadroNairofweightmolecularM
airforconstgasRgravitygheatingradiativeRad
etemperaturTdensitypressurep
parametCoriolisfvelocityupwardwvelocitynorthwardeastwardvuupwardnorthwardeastwardzyx
av
a
:&:,
::::
'::
:::
:::
::&:,
,,:,,
33
2
1
3
ρ
20
※純酸素反応Sydney Chapman (1930)
オゾン層生成の本質
23
23
32
2
2)330200(
:)240(
OOOOOnmnmhO
bodythirdtheMMOMOOOOnmhO
→++→<<+
+→+++→<+
λ
λ
ν
νProduction
Loss
※その他の反応のごく一例
.......)()(
........)(
31332123
3333
nnTkLnnnTkP
LPvny
nt
==
−+∂∂
−=∂∂
�OOHOHO
OHOOOH
232
223
2+→++→+
21�ONOONOONOONO
22
223
+→++→+
Ozone:O3mixing ratio (ppb)
n3 / n
Observation&
Model
Sudo HP
heig
ht
22
IPCC (2007)
NO2Observation Models
23
Future Simulation of O3/ CH4/ Aerosols
Temporal Evolution : Global Mean Methane CH4 (ppmv) and SO4
Climate change: Faster destruction of CH4
Climate change: Faster oxidation of SO2 (increased H2O2,etc)
Strato. O3 recovery
no climate change
Sudo24
IPCC (2007)25
Aerosol optical depth
Observation
White: No dataNo retrievals of MODISover highly reflective surfaces
IPCC (2007) 26
Hypothetical removal from the atmosphere of the entire burden of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol particles
No aerosols (2071-2100) – the present (1961-1990)
Before 2000: GHGs & Aerosols = ObservationAfter 2000: GHGs = const
Aerosols = constAerosols = zero
TOA
OTEdtdA
++=
A
ET
O
Carbon Cycle(Beyond the scope of this talk)
IPCC (200727
END
28