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OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Freight transport trends
&GHGemissions
Overview and key issuesPhilippe Crist, OECD Environment Directorate
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
CO2 Emissions from Freight: Context
Transport: ~26% of OECD CO2 emissions
Freight: ~30-40% of transport CO2 emissions
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
CO2 from FreightDrivers
Activity/Volume
Structure/Mode Share
Intensity/Energy Efficiency
Fuel
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Activity
Micro levelDerived Demand: Siting, transport links (rationalisation of supply base: increase in transportdistances of 1.5-2% in EU)
Macro LevelGDP, freight transport (3.4%/yr, 5.4%/yr road), geography & economy
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
0
5
10
15
20
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
GDP / Capita (90 US$ PPP)
Tonne-k
m /
Capit
a
US
UK
Netherlands
Japan
w. Germany
Australia
Sweden
Total Freight Volume and GDP:Correlation and variability
Sou
rce:
IEA
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Mode Share
RoadRailShippingAir
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Road Freight Transport44% of OECD t/km (higher value/shorter distances)
Gaining share everywhere
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
mill
ion t
onne/k
ilom
etr
es
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Road Freight Growthtonne/km
United States
EU-15
Japan
Sou
rce:
OEC
D, EEA
, U
SD
OT
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Road Freight Transport
Benefiting from shifts in production patterns and product cycles
Congestion
Role of transport market liberalisation
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Rail Freight Transport
36% of OECD t/km (lower value/longer distances)
Absolute gains, relative losses
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
mill
ion t
onne/k
ilom
etr
es
United States
EU-15
Japan
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Rail Freight Growthtonne/km
Sou
rce:
OEC
D, EEA
, U
SD
OT
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Rail Freight Transport
Increase in intermodal systems
Market deregulation
Infrastructure issues
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Inland (and Coastal) Shipping
Inland shipping ~20% OECD tn/km (low value/long distances)
Globalisation benefits shipping
Absolute gains, relative losses
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
mill
ion t
onne/k
ilom
etr
es
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
United States
EU-15
Japan
Shipping Freight Growthtonne/km
Sou
rce:
OEC
D, EEA
, U
SD
OT
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Airborne Freight Transport
Low absolute levels, highest growth (medium to high value goods, long distances)
Globalisation benefits air
Rel. low costs (for high value goods), short product and production cycles drivers
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Energy Intensity
Function of mode share, technical efficiency, and load factors
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
GH
G E
mis
sion
s in
CO
2 e
qu
ivale
nt
g/t
km
Indirect emissions
Direct emissions
Light van
gasoline
Light van
diesel
HGV 16 tonne Euro2
HGV 28 tonne Euro2
HGV 40 tonne Euro2
Rail combined
container
Rail combined
piggy
Rail wagon
UCPTE
Inland Shipping
Maritime Shipping
Air
Lifecycle GHG EmissionsEuropean Freight Transport Modes
Sou
rce:
INFR
AS
, Z
uri
ch
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Energy Intensity
Technical efficiency improvements: ambiguous-- Lorry 20-30% improvements not translated into energy intensity improvements per t/km
Improvements in other areas: Driver training, logistics chain management, vehicle utilisation, etc.
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
54% of trips were loaded to between 1.5m and 1.7m
24% of trips to more than 1.7m
17% to between 1.5m and 0.8m
and 5% under 0.8m
2.4m
Road Freight LoadingUK Survey Results
Tonne-out vs. Square out vs. Cube-out
Sou
rce:
A. M
cKin
non
, H
eri
ot-
Watt
Un
iv.
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
ml f
uel t
o m
ove
1 ou
tbou
nd in
dust
ry p
alle
t 1 k
m
refrigerationconsumption
motiveconsumption
Variability in Fleet Energy Intensity1998 UK Lorry Fleet Survey
Sou
rce:
A. M
cKin
non
, H
eri
ot-
Watt
Un
iv.
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Potential Fuel Savings from Best Practice1998 UK Lorry Fleet Survey
if fleets below meanperformance achievemean performance
if fleets below meanof top 1/3, achievemean performance
of top 1/3
motive fuel savings litres 4,670,336 14,726,121
reduction on currentlevel of fuel use % 9 29
reduction in CO2
emissions tonnes 12,423 39,171
cost saving pervehicle £ 2,255 7,109
Source: A. McKinnon, Heriot-Watt Univ.
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Fuels
Petroleum-based fuels dominate
Little use of alternative fuels, stock turn-over, questions re. Fuel cells
Ambiguity of fuel prices for firm-level strategic decision-making
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
• Logistics costs = 7.5% of sales revenue
• Road transport costs = 30% of logistics costs
• Fuel = 25-30% of road transport costs
• Fuel = 0.6 - 0.7 % of sales revenue
Road Fuel Costs in PerspectiveEU data
Source: A. McKinnon, Heriot-Watt Univ.
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Policy Issues
Different discourses/different agendas
Unit gains vs. Volume effects
Action now, impacts later
Technology vs. Practices
Instruments: Relevant? Fuel prices? Congestion?
De-coupling Economic Activity and Freight transport volume
OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES
Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000
Voluntary reduction of CO2 emissions: - 45% from 1993 to 2005
Sou
rce:
Arr
etz
, O
tto-V
ers
an
d