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OECD‐FAOAgricultural Outlook 2013‐2022
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Background to the Outlook
• Issues– High food commodity prices – Impact of income growth on food consumption?
– Opportunities for developing countries
• Focus :Feeding China: prospects and challenges for the next decade.
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FAO’s Food Price Index: “Real” prices remain well above trend
y = 238.36e‐0.019x
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50
100
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200
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350
400
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Inde
x 20
04‐06=
100
3
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Underpinned by high real energy prices …will the trend rise continue?
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1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20072009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
USD
/barrel
Nominal
Real
4International Energy Agency: constant $ 2005
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‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Ann
ual g
rowth ra
te %
WorldOECDBRICSLDCROWChina
…and especially by rapid growth in emerging countries
Source: OECD/FAO/IMF. In per capita terms
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0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.520
00 = 1
OECD
BRICS
LDC
RestofWorld
China
Index of consumption based on constant 2004‐06
Income growth drives higher per capita consumption in developing countries
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Income growth higher consumption, but why is the impact low in many countries?
1%9% 11% 8%6%
81%
42%37%
2%8% 9% 6%
15%
66%
41%35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
OECD BRICS LDC Rest of World
Consumption change 2003‐12 Income change 2003‐12Consumption change 2013‐22 Income change 2013‐22
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0
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2006 2011 2016 2021
Billion litres
Billion litres
Ethanol Bio‐diesel China ethanol
Bio‐fuel production will also rise strongly, taking a larger share of crop production
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0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2In
dex = 1 in 200
0
W.EuropeN.AmericaOceaniaE.Europe&C.AsiaN.Afr&M.EastSSAO.AsiaL.America
Net agricultural production indexGrowth slowest is W. Europe, quickest in L. America/SSA
Index based on constant 2004‐06 dollars
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‐60
‐40
‐20
0
20
40
60
80Billion
s of Con
stan
t $20
04‐06
N.AmericaL.AmericaOceaniaW.EuropeE.Europe&C.AsiaSS AfricaMENAOther Asia
The Americas are increasingly the largest net exporters
Note: Agriculture and fish products included in the Outlook
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Key global messages• Growth is now more market‐driven
– Policies now less distortive
• Prices to remain firm over the next decade– underpinned by growth/higher input costs
• Consumption is rising even with high prices. – Response to income growth is very low in many countries
• Production growth is slowing – High prices offer opportunity, but higher costs, rising
constraints– Productivity growth is slowing
• Emerging issues– Enabling higher response by developing countries, and
especially small holder producers11
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Focus on China: Prospects and Challenges
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1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
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4‐06
Agriculture
Crops
LivestockFrom 1978‐2011
Total – 3.8%/yearCrops – 2.9%/yearLivestock – 5.6%/year
Source: FAOSTAT
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• How sustainable is economic growth?• Rising constraints:
– Land and land quality, water, labor are in tight supply– Real exchange rates are rising– Economic growth risks?
• How much will demand grow? – Slowing population growth, but rapid urbanization– High income growth is likely to continue– Consumption base –nearing saturation?
• Will consumption mix change?
• How much will China trade?
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But what prospects for the next decade?
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China’s consumption growth will exceed production in the next decade
0.4
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0.8
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1.4
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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Inde
x =1 in 200
4‐06
Production Consumption
OECD-FAO – includes commodities of this outlookweighted by 2004-06 prices.
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‐0.7
‐0.5
‐0.3
‐0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
Wheat Coarse grain Rice Oilseeds
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Self‐sufficiency in “grains”, but growth of oilseed imports continues strong
(Exports-imports)/consumption
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‐0.15
‐0.1
‐0.05
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0.05
0.1
0.15
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0.25
Bovine meat Pig meat Fish Dairy
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Exports of fish continue strong, but imports of dairy products continue high
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40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Percen
tage of O
ECD le
vel
CaloriesProtein
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Rapid convergence of food consumption in China toward OECD levels
Source: FAOSTAT/Outlook
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• China’s agricultural growth has been strong, but now appears to be slowing:– Production constraints will limit future growth– Trade balance will widening slowly– Focus will remain on food security crops– Will meet its production targets
• Food demand growth will slow, but the mix is changing, with higher demand for feed grain, vegetable oil and livestock products
• Whether, how much China opens will keep markets on edge in the next decade.
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Prospects and Challenges
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