제약 바이오 일본 제약 바이오 탐방기 · 지속적인 신약 후보물질 개발이 추가 성장을 위한 핵심으로 판단함 국내업체 중 지속적인 신약

: /

- (1) , (2)

Overweight()

2016. 05. 25

/

Tel. 02)368-6170

[email protected]

Glossary

(ETC; Ethical drug) ,

(OTC; Over The Counter drug) ,

, ,

(Biosimilar) .

(IMD; Incrementally Modified Drug) ,

CMO (Contract Manufacturing Organizations)

CRO (Contract Research Organizations) .

cGMP (Current GMP) FDA(Food and drug administration)

(Target theraphy)

BLA (Biologic License Application) .

(Nonclinical study)

(Clinical Trial/ study) ,

IND (Investigative New Drug) .

NDA (New Drug Approval) . IND

,

(License out) .

,

(Pipeline) ,

(Milestone) .

(Big pharma)

(mAb; Monoclonal Antibody)

(Diabetes Mellitus)

(Cancer)

(CNS, Central Nerve)

.

Summary

5 16~17 / 6 , . 6 (Takeda

pharmaceuticals), (Astellas), (Daiichi Sankyo), (Eisai), (Chugai pharmaceutical),

(Kyowa Hakko Kirin) . R&D ,

. / ,

.

R&D , 1990 . 20

5 .

, R&D .

implication

.

. JV, License out, , .

/ 1 2 , . 20 R&D

5 , . ,

R&D , , R&D LG

() , , (CNS)

. , CNS

. . CNS

SK(), (, , )

, , ( )

, , , LG,

implication

, (CNS)

, , CNS SK(), (, )

(, ) , , LG,

R&D ,

LG

:

Summary

/

(New Findings)

(Takeda)

(4502.JP)

1, 17

()

2009~2014 R&D .

2015

300~600

2015 ,

, , CNS .

ADC

( ), (MM)

(Kyowa

Hakko Kirin)

(4151.JP)

R&D .

, , , CNS

1)KW-6002(): first-in-class ,

2) KRN23: . 2015 12 2 . 3

3)KW-0761(, ): anti CCR-4 BMS,

.

(Eisai)

(4523.JP)

CNS

CNS

2

Biogen

. 1)E2609(BACE inhibitor) 2)mAb BAN2401

, CNS 1983

2015 5500 2020 8000

(Astellas)

(4503.JP)

3 ,

astellas 10

, ,

CNS

OSI . (, ),

ASP2215(), ADC

(Chugai)

(4519.JP)

2016 4

, R&D

(Daiichi-

Sankyo)

(4568.JP)

7

,

M&A

2016 2015

MR 750

/

Tel. 02)368-6170

[email protected]

Summary

I. /

II.

1) ,

2) ,

3) , 2

III. 4

1) ,

2) .

3) ,

4) M&A

IV. Implication

1) : ,

2) , M&A

V. : vs.

Takeda (4502.JP)

Kyowa Hakko Kirin (4151.JP)

Eisai (4523.JP)

Astellas (4503.JP)

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519.JP)

Daiichi-Sankyo (4568.JP)

LG(068870.KS)

(086900.KQ)

(145020.KQ)

4 8 9

15

28

38

44

8

Analyst | /

I. /

5 16 17 / .

(Takeda pharmaceuticals), (Astellas), (Daiichi Sankyo), (Eisai),

(Chugai pharmaceutical), (Kyowa Hakko Kirin), 6.

R&D ,

/

.

1 /

2016. 5. 16()

Chugai Toshiya Sasai, IR

Tomoko Shimizu Roche

Daiichi Sankyo Reiko Oshima, IR

Shinichi Kuga

Kyowa Hakko Kirin Maiko Hirota,

Wakako Yamada, Ph.D

2016. 5. 17()

Takeda

Noriko Higuchi, IR

Mihoko Ikeda

Hisashi Tokinoya

1 . 17 .

Astellas

Daisuke Okajima,

Shin Okubo

Hiroshi Okazaki

2

,

Eisai Yuka Kusakari

Naoko Hayashi,

Biogen

:

2 IR

:

9

Analyst | /

II.

1) ,

2015 9 65 3,384 26.7%

. UN 65 20% , 14%

, 7% . 2040 36.1%

.

2000 2017 .

. 9 2026 .

156, 94 , 36, 34,

26 .

.

3 ,

2000 2017 2026

2001 2025 2035

1970 1994 2006

1927 1988 2008

1942 2015 2036

1932 1972 2009

1864 1979 2020

1929 1976 2020

2025

17 9

24 10

24 12

61 20

73 21

40 37

115 41

47 44

(7%) (14%) (20%) :

10

Analyst | /

4 5

36.1 35.4 30.224.0 23.5 18.2 14.6 13.1 12.8 11.0 9.0

59.2 59.664.1

68.9 67.369.5

67.963.3 61.3

59.051.0

4.7 4.9 5.7 7.1 9.1 12.0 17.322.8 26 30.0

40.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

19401950196019701980199020002010201420252060

0~14 15~64 65 (%)

42.3 42.534

25.6 21.1 16.1 13.2 12.6 11.2 9.9 10.2

54.8 54.462.2

69.371.7

72.871.1

63.156.5

52.7 49.7

2.9 3.1 3.8 5.1 7.2 11.1 15.724.3

32.3 37.4 40.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

0~14 15~64 65 (%)

: , : ,

6 2025 7 2060

13,240

(11%)

70,845

(59%)

36,573

(30%)

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

0~14

15~64

65

2025

()

7,912

(9%)

44,183

(51%)

34,642

(40%)

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

0~14

15~64

65

2060

()

: :

8 1 9 10

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1

($)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1: 10

(10 )

($)

: OECD, : OECD,

11

Analyst | /

2) ,

950 11.7% .

2 . .

.

1995 2,000

, , .

. , , ,

.

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2020

(JPY)

Forecast

:

12

Analyst | /

R&D , 1990

. 1981 ,

1980

. 2000 10

R&D .

, ,

, ,

.

/ 20

.

breakthrough .

11

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Japan

Korea

($)

: OECD,

12 1 GDP GDP

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

1 GDP ( , %)

(1 GDP, $)

:

13

Analyst | /

3) , 2

1 , 2

. 2 , . 2017

.

+a .

.

13 Growth Cycle

()

( )

:

14

: (2016), ,

14

Analyst | /

15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

MSCI Japan Healthcare Index

MSCI Japan

(1984=100)

*

*R&D *

* Consolidation

* 2

Consolidation

* M&A

*, CNS

*

*

:

16 2015 :

(, )

Takeda 3,752,269 1,807,378 130,828 80,166 2,779,427 31,328 1781

Astellas 3,324,958 1,372,706 1,372,706 193,687 193,687 17,113 1923

Daiichi Sankyo 1,876,399 986,446 130,412 82,282 1,434,521 16,428 1899

Eisai 2,007,758 547,922 51,935 54,933 780,421 10,183 1941

Chugai 2,118,411 498,840 86,784 61,125 628,006 7,169 1925

Kyowa Kirin 1,171,415 364,316 43,765 29,774 620,376 7,435 1949

: Bloomberg,

: Astellas, Eisai, Takeda, Daiichi Sankyo 3 2016/03/31 . Chugai, Kyowa Kirin 12 2015/12/31

15

Analyst | /

III. 4

1) ,

2 . ,

1,000 10% .

2016 4 .

2017 . 2017

, 2016 3 .

.

.

2010 4 .

. R&D

.

17

()

1992 7,681 2,121 (0.4%) 3,771 13,573 -8.1%

1994 8,613 2,083 (0.2%) 2,679 13,375 -6.6%

1996 9,568 1,697 (0.2%) 1,604 12,869 -6.8%

1997 7,718 3,394 862 11,974 -3.0%

1998 9,921 6 (0.0%) 1,762 11,692 -9.7%

2000 8,935 61 (0.5%) 2,291 11,287 -7.0%

2002 9,096 98 1,997 11,191 -6.3%

2004 9,645 39 2,309 11,933 -4.2%

2006 10,113 75 3,123 13,311 -6.7%

2008 12,740 77 1,542 14,359 -5.2%

: KPMA, JPMA,

16

Analyst | /

2) .

.

, . 2011

23%, 9% .

. 2007

, 2013 , 2018 60%

. 2020 80% .

18 ()

()

1 () 91 3, 2915 12 JV

2 () 85

3 ( , ) 66

4 () 65

5 () 45 2015 6 .

6 () 30 2015 7 .

7 () 26

8 () 24

9 () 23

10 () 20

20 () 12

23 () 10

28 () 8

: , Evaluate Pharma, KOTRA,

17

Analyst | /

6 .

OTC . ,

,

R&D . 6

2008

. 2009 3,000

2014 .

. 2011

,

. 2015 12 JV .

19 20

: :

21 22

: :

18

Analyst | /

23 OTC : 24

: :

25 12

L- C

A

A

A

: MJ, KOTRA,

19

Analyst | /

. ,

, .

26 :

: Bevacizumab

:

27 : ,

:

20

Analyst | /

3) ,

,

.

. 2016 .

. ,

5 R&D .

R&D 1), 2)

. CCR-4 KW-0761 . Anti-PD1,

Anti-CTLA-4

. , ADC .

28 anti HER2 ADC

: Daiichi Sankyo,

21

Analyst | /

29 Anti CCR-4

: Kyowa Hakko Kirin,

30 BMS,


22

Analyst | /

, , , (neurology, )

. 6

5 .

(CNS) ,

. 1

, 2

. 35 .

R&D CNS .

31 :

: Eisai annual report,

32 10


23

Analyst | /

(Alzheimers disease, AD) ,

. AD

. 10

6, ,

. 1 4

.

33

: , ,

34

2014 ($)

Eisai Pfrizer 621 () 1996

() 1997

Novartis Ono Pharmaceutical 1,073 () 2000

() 1998

Merz Lundbeck/ Allergan/ Daiichi-Sankyo 1,435 () 2003

() 2002

Johnson&Johnson Johnson&Johnson/ Shire/ Takeda 131 () 2001

() 2000

: , Datamonitor ,

: 2016 3

24

Analyst | /

2010 3,600 2016 4,680 , 2030 7,470, 2050 1

3,100 (ADI) .

2015 8,180 2030 2 .

.

20 .

. , .

SK CNS .

35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

()

()

: , Datamonitor ,

: 2016 3

36

0 1 2 3 4 5

Anavex Life Sciences

Aracion Biotech

Avineuro Pharmaceut icals

Eli Liily

Johnson&Johnson

Merck & Co

Otsuka Holdings

Suven Life Sciences

Eisai

AstraZeneca

()

: , Datamonitor ,

: 2016 3

25

Analyst | /

iPSC(; induced Pluripotent Stem Cell)

. (iPSC)

, .

2012 iPS

.

37

TAKEDA

TK Project

,

(Tri-1TDI)

, , .

IPS(CiRA) 10

, ,

IPS

ASTELLAS

a-cube

2011 , 2013 26

AK Project

( )

Astellas Innovation

Management 2013

(AIM) 2013 10

ASTELLAS & 2014 4 3 , ( 40

) DAIICHISANKYO

DAIICHISANKYO

TaNeDS

2011 , 2013 64

2013

TaNeDS Global Programme 2014 : EU , ,

OIDE FUND

2013 (GP: UFJ) 10

OiDE , UFJ

SHIONOGI

FINDS

2011 , 20

SK Project

' '

Sumitomo

Dainippon Pharma PRISM

2015 ,

1, 500

KYOWA KIRIN TR

2013 Singapore Translational

, NUS ,

: KOTRA,

26

Analyst | /

4) M&A

7

. M&A ,

. 2008 (Millennium) 2011

(Nycomed) .

,

. 2015 12 JV

.

.

. CNS

Biogen , .

M&A . 2008

.

2009 3,000 2014

. 2015 ,

.

38 M&A

()

Takeda Syrrx $3.7 2005.02

Millennium $88 2008.04

Nycomed $137 2011.05

LigoCyte $6,000 2012.10

Teva JV 2015.12

Daiichi-Sankyo U3 Pharma $2.35 2008

Ranbaxy $4.6 2008

Astellas OSI $40 2010.05

Eisai Morphotek $3.25 2007.03

MGI Pharma $39 2008.01

Liaoning Tianyi $8,760(96) 2015.11

Biogen 2015.05

Merck 2015.05

BioArctic Neuroscience 2015.05

Johns Hopkins University 2015.05

Kyowa Hakko Kirin ProStrakan $47.5 2011.02

Fujifilm JV 2012.03

Fujifilm/ AstraZeneca FKB328 JV 2015.07

Sepracor $22.8(2,500) 2009.09

Sciele $14 2008.09

C&O Pharma $1.3(143) 2011.09

BMS $2.6(282) 2009.09

:

27

Analyst | /

39 M&A

Takeda

Daiichi SankyoSankyo

Daiichi Pharma

Astellas

Eisai

Chugai

( )

Kyowa Hakko

2005.09

2007.04

2005.04

2002.10

( )

2005.10

2002.10

( )

1999 2001.10 2007.10

1998

( , )

Syrrx Millennium LigoCyte

Pharmacuticals Nycomed

MGI Pharma Liaoning Tianyi

C&O

Kyowa Hakko Kirin

BMS

(, )

2007

20082005 2011 2013

2016

2008.05

U3 Pharma

Ranbaxy

2007.10 2015

2009

2008 2011

2002 2009

2008.06

: Bloomberg,

28

Analyst | /

IV. Implication

1) : ,

.

, , ,

.

, .

, . ,

, , ,

.

40

,

, ,

,

, , , U-.

: KHIDI,

41

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2005 2010 2015

/

($)

: KHIDI,

29

Analyst | /

,

, ,

.

,

.

42

/

/

/

/

/

:

30

Analyst | /

2013 8 3,390,

3,356 . , , ICT,

.

43

() 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2,506 2,694 2,941 3,149 3,356

70,323 73,108 76,141 80,144 83,390

: : , ( ), . , ,

: ,

44 WHO ,

: KHIDI,

31

Analyst | /

2013 1,223 2019 1,917 8%

. , , , ,

, . .

, 18 8 65

.

.

45 :

/

()

()

: ,

46

: KHIDI, GBI Research ,

32

Analyst | /

47

Other dermal

fillers

Facial

aesthetics

HA fillers

Dermal fillers

( )

:

48 2013

($)

,

, , 1,876

1~4

1~14

392 30 4,6

// 635 1 2 or

HA , , 552 1 4~1

: KHIDI,

33

Analyst | /

49 50 BNT (2013)

2.52.8

3.23.6

44.3

4.7

5.25.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

($)

Allergan

74%

Valeant

15%

Merz

7%

2%

BTXA

2%

: KHIDI, GBI Research , : KHIDI, GBI Research ,

51 HA 52 HA (2013)

1.0 1.2

1.3 1.5

1.7 1.9

2.1

2.4

2.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E2017E2018E2019E2020E

($)

Allergan

38%

Valeant

22%

Galderma

20%

20%

: KHIDI, GBI Research , : KHIDI, GBI Research ,

34

Analyst | /

KOTRA

. 36.9% , 33.3%

, .

53 1 () & 54 2 ()

: KOTRA, : KOTRA,

.

, . 2015

2014

. K 19,

5 30 . ,

.

, ,

. 50%

.

.

35

Analyst | /

55 2011~2014

7

13

22

56

145.5

126.1

69.2

149.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2011 2012 2013 2014

()() (%)

: (), KOTRA,

36

Analyst | /

2) , M&A

.

,

. M&A ,

.

56 /

1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 2018

Efpeglenatide (GLP-1)

P3 (US)

P3

HM12470 ()

P2 (US)

P2

P1 (US)

P1

HM12525 (GLP/GCG)

P2 (US)

P2

Eflapegrastim () P3 (US)

P3

() P2 (US) P2

HM61713 (, BTD) P2 (US) (KR) P2 NDA

HM71224 (BTK Inhibitor)

P2 (US)

P2

HM95573 (RAF Inhibitor)

P2 (US)

P2

DA-9801 (, ) FDA P2 P3 (US)

P3

DA-3880 ( ) P3

DA-1229(NASH, CVC ) P1 (US) P1 P2 P2

DA-1241(, GPR 119 ) P1 () P1 P2

DA-9805(, ) P2 (US) P2 P3

DA-8010( ) P1 (EU) P1 P2

CKD-581 ()

P2 (KR)

P2

CKD-516 ()

P2 (KR)

P2

CKD-519 ()

P2 (KR)

P2

CKD-506 (RA, HDAC6 Inhibitor) P1 (EU)

P1

CKD-504 () (US) P1 (US)

P1

CKD-11101 () P1 (JP) P3 (KR) P1 (JP)

(KR)

LG

LBEC0101 ( )

P3 (JP, KR)

LBAL ( )

P2 (JP)

( )

P3 (US, 3Q) BLA (US)

P3 (US) P3

YH14618 ( ) 2b (KR) P3 (KR)

SK

P1 (US)

IVIG

BLA ()

GX-188E ()

P2 (EU, KR)

GX-H9 () P2 (EU, KR) P3 (EU, KR)

GX-I7 () P1 (US) P1

:

37

Analyst | /

57 /

1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 2018

SK YKP3089 () P3 (US) P3 NDA

SKL-N05 () P3 (US) NDA (US)

Plumiaz (, ) NDA (US)

SB2 ( ) (KR), NDA(EU)

SB3 ( ) P3 NDA (EU)

SB4 ( ) (KR, EU)

SB5 ( ) P3

SB8 ( ) P1 P3

SB9 ( ) P3 NDA

JW

CWP291 () P1 (US, KR) P2 (US, KR) P2

JM-010 ( LID) P2 (EU) P2

MLR-1023 () 2a (KR) 2b (KR)

Apatinib () P3 (US) P3

HL161 () (CA) P1 (US) P1 P2 (US)

HL036 () P1 (KR, 3Q) P2 (KR) P2

Q301 (, ) 2a (US) 2a P3 (US)

Q203 ( ) P1 (US)

EG-Mirotin() 2a (EU) 2b (EU) 2b

VMD202 ( ) P3 (US) P3

VMD202 () P1 P2 (US) P2

VMD202 ( ) P3 (US) P3

CG200745 () P1/2 (KR) P1/2

CG200745 (MDS, ) P1/2 (KR) P1/2

Invossa ( ) BLA (KR) (KR)

TissueGene ( ) P3 (US)

:

38

Analyst | /

V. : vs.

58 EPS PER 59 ROE PBR

Takeda

Astellas

Daiichi Sankyo

EisaiChugai

Kyowa Kirin

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

0 20 40 60 80

EPS Growth rate(2016~2017F, %)

PER(2016F, )

Takeda

Astellas

Daiichi Sankyo

Eisai

Chugai

Kyowa Kirin

0

5

10

15

0 1 2 3 4

ROE (2016F, %)

PBR

(2016F, )

: Calendar year

: Bloomberg,

: Calendar year

: Bloomberg,

60 EPS PER 61 ROE PBR

SK

LG

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 20 40 60 80

EPS Growth rate (2015~16F, %)

PER(2016F, )

SK

LG

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 5 10 15 20

ROE(2016F, %)

PBR(2016F, )

:

: Bloomberg,

:

: Bloomberg,

39

Analyst | /

62

TAKEDA ASTELLAS DAIICHI

SANKYO CHUGAI KYOWA KIRIN EISAI

MSCI

2001 -12.3% -29.9%

-20.1% -21.3% -18.5% -23.5% -17.3%

2002 -16.4% -0.3%

-17.4% -20.9% -18.3% -18.6% -16.2%

2003 -14.3% -3.0%

36.4% 38.6% 8.4% 24.5% 0.8%

2004 21.4% 19.8%

9.9% 12.9% 16.6% 7.6% 13.4%

2005 23.6% 15.3%

49.9% 6.9% 46.9% 40.2% 22.4%

2006 28.1% 17.6% 63.5% -3.0% 23.8% 32.1% 6.9% 27.7%

2007 -19.6% -10.0% -7.5% -34.8% 17.2% -32.7% -11.1% -13.4%

2008 -29.4% -25.5% -39.0% 7.7% -22.2% -15.9% -42.1% -27.0%

2009 -17.5% -4.7% -7.2% 1.3% 6.0% -7.6% 19.0% -4.8%

2010 4.3% -10.5% -8.8% -14.4% -15.1% -14.0% -3.0% -7.1%

2011 -15.4% 1.1% -14.1% -14.8% 12.7% 8.3% -17.3% -10.9%

2012 14.1% 23.8% -13.4% 30.1% -9.9% 13.0% 22.9% 12.1%

2013 25.2% 60.8% 45.5% 40.8% 36.5% 13.2% 56.7% 41.4%

2014 3.6% 35.4% -12.2% 27.5% -2.0% 14.7% 7.1% 15.4%

2015 21.4% 2.7% 49.4% 43.3% 68.6% 72.6% 9.1% 33.0%

: Bloomberg,

40

Analyst | /

63 Nikkei PER

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Nikkei

()

: Bloomberg,

64 6 Nikkei/ MSCI

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

TakedaAstellasDaiichi-SankyoChugaiKyowa Hakko KirinEisaiNikkei 225MSCI Japan Healthcare

(2005.09.30=100)

: Bloomberg,

41

Analyst | /

65 Valuation

(, ) Takeda Kyowa Hakko Kirin Eisai Astellas Chugai Daiichi-Sankyo

() 4,731 2,055 6,785 1,481 3,825 2,600

() 3,739 1,185 2,012 3,291 2,141 1,843

JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY

PER ()

2015A N/A 39.1 56.3 32.0 31.7 28.7

2016A 50.2 35.2 35.2 16.7 37.9 21.0

2017F 26.6 57.7 65.4 15.6 39.2 24.8

2018F 21.3 47.1 55.9 14.5 33.8 30.7

PBR ()

2015A 2.2 1.0 4.1 3.3 2.7 1.0

2016A 2.1 1.7 3.4 2.5 3.7 1.4

2017F 1.9 1.9 3.5 2.2 3.3 1.4

2018F 1.9 1.8 3.5 2.0 3.1 1.2

EPS

2015A -185.4 29.1 151.6 61.5 93.5 457.6

2016A 102.3 54.4 192.2 89.8 112.0 119.4

2017F 177.6 35.6 103.7 94.8 97.7 105.0

2018F 221.8 43.6 121.4 102.3 113.0 84.6

2015A 1,777,824 333,446 548,465 1,247,259 461,109 919,372

2016A 1,807,378 364,316 547,922 1,372,706 498,840 986,446

2017F 1,792,564 354,150 568,788 1,412,132 501,495 914,855

2018F 1,848,757 366,288 600,088 1,471,085 525,605 874,589

2015A -129,254 36,173 28,338 185,663 75,859 74,422

2016A 130,828 43,765 51,935 248,986 86,784 130,412

2017F 173,250 35,344 47,578 274,711 75,246 110,390

2018F 157,225 40,833 54,256 293,478 87,123 87,670

2015A -145,775 15,898 43,254 135,856 50,980 322,119

2016A 80,166 29,774 54,933 193,687 61,125 82,282

2017F 115,192 19,225 28,043 200,481 53,517 71,220

2018F 106,322 23,838 33,721 213,846 62,347 58,244

EV/EBITDA ()

2015A 37.1 8.3 36.8 15.6 15.3 10.4

2016A 13.1 13.0 22.6 N/A 20.3 6.9

2017F 11.5 16.3 26.9 8.5 20.8 9.4

2018F 12.8 15.2 26.7 7.9 18.1 10.4

2015A 96,644 -15,269 32,749 -395,439 -229,853 -133,746

2016A 208,198 -7,718 7,221 N/A -235,391 -514,927

2017F 156,124 -73,949 51,890 -545,284 -158,380 -61,250

2018F 164,692 -77,002 107,660 -664,645 -174,700 -514,320

ROE (%)

2015A -6.3 2.7 7.7 10.5 8.7 28.2

2016A 3.9 4.9 9.4 15.0 10.0 6.5

2017F 5.7 3.1 5.1 14.5 8.5 5.4

2018F 5.4 3.7 6.6 13.8 9.5 4.2

: Bloomberg,

: 3 Astellas, Eisai, Takeda, Daiichi Sankyo 2016A, 12 Chugai, Kyowa Kirin 2015A

: , 2016.05.23

42

Analyst | /

66 / Valuation

(, ) SK LG

() 141,000 619,000 117,000 296,500 76,900 70,900 442,300 321,000

() 1,175 6,459 1,101 3,307 1,869 1,175 2,502 1,054

KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW

PER ()

2014A 18.4 29.4 17.5 N/A 20.8 N/A 41.5 N/A

2015A 23.7 49.1 N/A 30.8 24.1 87.2 68.6 19.2

2016F 27.1 75.4 58.4 26.0 30.0 52.5 47.0 36.7

2017F 22.8 29.4 33.8 17.3 25.0 46.5 41.7 26.9

PBR ()

2014A 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.2 1.5 2.4 22.2 N/A

2015A 2.1 11.3 3.9 1.3 2.3 4.0 25.6 3.1

2016F 1.9 9.1 3.7 1.4 2.2 4.1 16.3 4.4

2017F 1.7 6.9 3.4 1.3 2.1 3.7 12.3 3.8

EPS

2014A 4,977 3,410 3,736 -1,173 8,155 -127 7,713 N/A

2015A 6,199 14,819 -599 2,356 11,302 695 7,477 10,331

2016F 5,023 8,903 2,252 3,159 9,505 1,276 9,044 8,662

2017F 5,954 22,851 3,886 4,742 11,425 1,440 11,161 11,816

2014A 5,786 7,613 5,441 72,836 10,175 4,256 759 403

2015A 5,810 13,175 5,925 52,692 11,287 4,505 885 651

2016F 5,978 10,006 7,760 56,649 12,329 4,929 1,276 943

2017F 6,533 15,320 8,958 76,200 13,603 5,281 1,454 1,179

2014A 494 345 539 1,496 744 162 500 155

2015A 554 2,118 427 1,143 858 252 517 178

2016F 504 912 549 1,468 740 354 697 302

2017F 619 3,252 760 1,902 1,016 385 783 408

2014A 375 433 352 140 909 -20 436 132

2015A 486 1,621 -56 944 1,260 114 423 359

2016F 404 966 212 768 1,060 204 560 287

2017F 478 2,409 366 1,152 1,274 230 631 392

EV/EBITDA ()

2014A 11.3 21.4 9.2 19.1 15.4 18.0 32.8 1.2

2015A 15.8 30.0 21.0 25.7 23.6 21.3 51.3 30.7

2016F 15.2 44.6 17.5 20.5 25.9 18.7 34.3 29.7

2017F 12.9 17.1 13.6 18.4 20.2 17.5 30.0 21.6

2014A 1,311 1,743 733 23,058 -3,575 2,576 -762 187

2015A 713 1,851 1,246 26,286 -3,283 2,975 -524 -672

2016F 340 -3,023 1,246 23,775 -3,535 3,417 -612 -965

2017F 249 -3,343 1,246 26,117 -3,919 3,906 -909 -1,158

ROE (%)

2014A 8.1 9.2 11.2 1.1 7.3 -0.8 61.3 37.8

2015A 9.3 27.0 -1.7 6.9 9.5 4.5 43.4 28.6

2016F 7.1 13.4 6.5 5.0 7.5 7.6 40.8 12.9

2017F 7.9 27.0 10.5 7.1 8.5 7.9 33.6 15.3

: Bloomberg,

: , 2016.05.23

:

43

Analyst | /

67 , Valuation

(, ) Allergan IPSEN LG MERZ

() 141,000 619,000 70,900 442,300 321,000 93,900 N/A () 1,175 6,459 1,175 2,502 1,054 1,103 N/A KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW EUR

PER ()

2014A 18.4 29.4 N/A 41.5 N/A 22.0 N/A 2015A 23.7 49.1 87.2 68.6 19.2 17.1 N/A 2016F 27.1 75.4 52.5 47.0 36.7 N/A N/A 2017F 22.8 29.4 46.5 41.7 26.9 N/A N/A PBR ()

2014A 1.4 2.0 2.4 22.2 N/A 1.6 N/A 2015A 2.1 11.3 4.0 25.6 3.1 1.5 N/A 2016F 1.9 9.1 4.1 16.3 4.4 N/A N/A 2017F 1.7 6.9 3.7 12.3 3.8 N/A N/A EPS

2014A 4,977 3,410 -127 7,713 N/A 3,056 N/A 2015A 6,199 14,819 695 7,477 10,331 4,160 N/A 2016F 5,023 8,903 1,276 9,044 8,662 N/A N/A 2017F 5,954 22,851 1,440 11,161 11,816 N/A N/A

2014A 5,786 7,613 4,256 759 403 736 994

2015A 5,810 13,175 4,505 885 651 840 1,157

2016F 5,978 10,006 4,929 1,276 943 N/A N/A 2017F 6,533 15,320 5,281 1,454 1,179 N/A N/A

2014A 494 345 162 500 155 51.9 247

2015A 554 2,118 252 517 178 43.6 256

2016F 504 912 354 697 302 N/A N/A 2017F 619 3,252 385 783 408 N/A N/A

2014A 375 433 -20 436 132 31.5 163

2015A 486 1,621 114 423 359 42.9 156

2016F 404 966 204 560 287 N/A N/A 2017F 478 2,409 230 631 392 N/A N/A EV/EBITDA ()

2014A 11.3 21.4 18.0 32.8 1.2 9.7 N/A 2015A 15.8 30.0 21.3 51.3 30.7 13.9 N/A 2016F 15.2 44.6 18.7 34.3 29.7 N/A N/A 2017F 12.9 17.1 17.5 30.0 21.6 N/A N/A

2014A 1,311 1,743 2,576 -762 187 -37.7 N/A 2015A 713 1,851 2,975 -524 -672 76.8 N/A 2016F 340 -3,023 3,417 -612 -965 N/A N/A 2017F 249 -3,343 3,906 -909 -1,158 N/A N/A

ROE (%) 2014A 8.1 9.2 -0.8 61.3 37.8 7.2 N/A 2015A 9.3 27.0 4.5 43.4 28.6 9.3 N/A 2016F 7.1 13.4 7.6 40.8 12.9 N/A N/A 2017F 7.9 27.0 7.9 33.6 15.3 N/A N/A

: Bloomberg,

: , 2016.05.23

: LG/ / . MERZ

44

Analyst | /

Takeda (4502.JP) Not rated 1 , 2 Kyowa Hakko Kirin (4151.JP) Not rated Eisai (4523.JP) Not rated Astellas (4503.JP) Not rated , Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519.JP) Not rated (Roche) Daiichi-Sankyo (4568.JP) Not rated LG(068870.KS) BUY() / TP 93,000() (086900.KQ) BUY() / TP 600,000() (145020.KQ) BUY() / TP 430,000()

45

Analyst | /

Takeda(4502.JP) Global Research

Eugene Equity

1 , 2 /

Tel. 368-6170 / [email protected]

1

Takeda pharmaceutical() 1781 235

2009 . 2014

CEO 2 GSK Weber CEO .

20 5 M&A .

2008 (Millennium) 2011

(Nycomed) .

,

. 2009~2014

2015

2 ,

(Velcade). 2017

2015 12 (Ninlaro)

.

Entivio . Actos

.

, ( 300~600

) .

, ADC .

2

PBR 1.9 (2009~14) 1.5 .

(1996~03) PBR 3.7 R&D

Not rated

(5/23) 4,731

(: 2016. 5. 23)

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd

1781

NIKKEI225(pt) 16,654.6

TOPIX(pt) 1,338.7

() 3,738.8

52 /() 6,609/4,682

52 Beta 0.8

(16A, %) 3.8

(%) 32.4

(%)

NIPPON LIFE INSURANC 6.4

MASTER TRUST BANK OF 4.3

CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN 4.0

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01

Takeda()

Nikkei225()

() (pt)

(3) 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016F

() 1,557,005 1,691,685 1,777,824 1,807,378 1,792,564

() 64,994 139,274 -129,254 130,828 173,250

() 133,069 158,850 -145,437 120,538 177,583

() 148,583 106,658 -145,775 80,166 115,192

EPS() 188.2 135.1 -185.4 102.3 177.6

(%) 19.7 -28.2 -237.2 -155.2 73.7

PER() 26.7 36.2 N/A 50.2 26.6

ROE(%) 6.9 4.5 -6.3 3.9 5.7

PBR() 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.1 1.9

EV/EBITDA() 13.1 11.7 37.1 13.1 11.5

:

: Calender Year (2015A 2016/03/31 )

46

Analyst | /

68 Takeda Pharmaceutical

1781

31,328

1, 12

CEO: Christophe Weber/ 2014.04 COO Takeda , 2015.04 CEO / GSK(2004~2012)

2005 (Syrrx)

2008 (Millennium)

2011 (Nycomed)

2013 (LigoCyte)

: , , ,

:

69 Takeda 70 Takeda

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

Takeda

()

()

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

Takeda

()

()

: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,

71 Takeda R&D 72 Takeda

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

TakedaR&D

R&D

()

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

TakedaNikkei 225MSCI Japan Healthcare

(1995=100)


47

Analyst | /

73 Takeda

FY2016 ()

2008 162.0

, , 1992 124.4

2011 100.8

1992 89.5

2014 86.2

2005 40.8

:

74 Takeda

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Japan North America Europe Asia South America Russia/CIS Others

()

: Bloomberg,

: Takeda 3 2015 FY2016(2016/03/31 )

75 Takeda

(%)

Niipon Life Insurance Company 6.42 Insurance Company

Master Trust Bank Of Japan 4.26 Bank

Vanguard Group 3.60 Investment Advisor

Japan Trustee Services Bank 3.49 Bank

State Street Bank and Trust 2.98 Bank

Capital Research Global Investor 2.53 Investment Advisor

Takeda Science Foundation 2.27 Foundation

Nomura Holdings 2.02 Investment Advisor

Others 72.43 -

: Bloomberg,

48

Analyst | /

Takeda(4502.JT)

() FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

(, ) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

3,577,030 4,052,556 4,569,144 4,296,192 3,824,085 1,508,932 1,557,005 1,691,685 1,777,824 1,807,378

1,278,996 1,231,405 1,592,536 1,520,072 1,373,787 265,027 64,994 139,274 (129,254) 130,828

2,298,034 2,821,151 2,976,608 2,776,120 2,450,298 252,478 133,069 158,850 (145,437) 120,538

1,505,164 1,714,270 2,028,509 2,090,016 1,812,882 124,162 148,583 106,658 (145,775) 80,166

751,731 633,847 802,754 1,016,824 857,213 EPS 157 166 135 (185) 102

753,433 1,080,423 1,225,755 1,073,192 955,669 EPS 157 188 135 (185) 102

2,071,866 2,338,286 2,540,635 2,206,176 2,011,203 EBITDA 415,221 312,200 355,017 131,697 328,209

() FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

(, %) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

124,162 148,583 106,658 (145,775) 80,166 PER 23.2 26.7 36.2 N/A 50.2

150,194 247,206 215,743 260,951 197,381 PBR 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.1

64,725 (12,922) (57,117) (54,145) 23,437 PSR 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.2

336,570 332,579 148,335 182,517 25,491 P/CF 8.5 11.9 26.0 25.8 157.9

(61,904) (83,451) (50,108) (48,232) (48,758) 4.9 3.6 3.7 3.0 3.5

(1,093,964

) (131,077) (158,611) 91,347 (71,208) 71.3 67.4 68.4 52.6 67.9

338,931 (110,169) 130,744 (284,669) (158,100) 17.6 4.2 8.2 - 7.3 7.2

(418,463) 91,333 120,468 (10,805) (203,817) 8.2 9.5 6.3 -8.2 4.4

FCF 274,666 249,128 98,227 134,285 (23,267) ROA 3.9 3.9 2.5 -3.3 2.0

347.9 315.6 124.4 170.8 (29.7) ROE 6.1 6.9 4.5 -6.3 3.9

: : Takeda 3 FY2016 2016/03/31 (2015 )

:

49

Analyst | /

Kyowa Hakko Kirin(4151.JP) Global Research

Eugene Equity

/


Kyowa Hakko Kirin 2007 .

76%, , 24%

. 1)

.

. 2)

KW-0761

KW-0761(Mogamulizumab) .

T KW-0761 anti CCR-4

. anti PD-1 BMS

(Ipilimumab) . BMS

, . 2015

2016 PER 57.7, PBR 1.9

, 1 15%, 3 67%

. , ,

. 2001

PBR 2.6 37%

Not rated

(5/23) 2,055

(: 2016. 5. 23)

Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co, Ltd

1949

NIKKEI225(pt) 16,654.6

TOPIX(pt) 1,338.7

() 1,184.7

52 /() 2,321/1,497

52 Beta 0.8

(15A, %) 1.2

(%) 14.9

(%)

KIRIN HOLDINGS CO LT 50.1


KYOWA HAKKO KIRIN CO 5.1

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01

Kyowa Hakko Kirin

Nikkei225()

() (pt)

(12) 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016F

() 333,158 340,611 333,446 364,316 354,150

() 52,905 51,773 36,173 43,765 35,344

() 45,024 49,771 27,245 41,399 31,283

() 24,199 30,078 15,898 29,774 19,225

EPS() 44.1 55.0 29.1 54.4 35.6

(%) 24.5 -47.1 87.3 1.0

PER() 19.2 21.1 39.1 35.2 57.7

ROE(%) 4.4 5.2 2.7 4.9 3.1

PBR() 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.9

EV/EBITDA() 5.2 7.3 8.3 13.0 16.3

:

50

Analyst | /

76 Kyowa Hakko Kirin

1949

7,435

CEO: Nobuo Hanai/ 2012.03 CEO / BioWa CEO(2003~2012)

2007 ,

: ,

: Bloomberg,

77 Kyowa Kirin 78 Kyowa Kirin

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

Kyowa Kirin

()

()

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13

Kyowa Kirin

()

()


79 Kyowa R&D 80 Kyowa Kirin

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Kyowa Hakko Kirin

R&D

R&D

()

0

100

200

300

400

500

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Kyowa Hakko KirinNikkei 225MSCI Japan Healthcare

(1995=100)


51

Analyst | /

81 Kyowa Hakko Kirin

FY2015 ()

/ 2009 57.5

2009 22.1

2009 18.2

2014 10.3

2013 5.3

2013 4.8

:

82 Kyowa Kirin

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Japan

Europe

Asia

North America

Rest of the Wor ld

()

: Kyowa Hakko Kirin 12

: Bloomberg,

83 Kyowa Kirin

Kirin Holdings

50%Others

34%

Master Trust

Bank Of Japan

5%

Kyowa Hakko Kirin

5%

Japan Trustee

Services Bank

3%

Nomura Holdings

3%

: Bloomberg,

52

Analyst | /

84 Anti CCR-4


85 BMS,


53

Analyst | /

86 BMS,


54

Analyst | /

Kyowa Hakko Kirin(4151.JT)

() FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

(, ) FY1 2011 FY1 2012 FY1 2013 FY1 2014 FY1 2015

658,873 679,342 719,257 719,135 720,764 343,722 333,158 340,611 333,446 364,316

284,217 303,988 329,320 283,192 324,433 46,614 52,905 51,773 36,173 43,765

374,656 375,354 389,937 435,943 396,331 46,184 45,024 49,771 27,245 41,399

118,850 123,444 123,842 113,767 105,906 25,608 24,199 30,078 15,898 29,774

78,366 85,774 85,076 85,182 84,823 EPS 45.2 44.1 55.0 29.1 54.4

40,484 37,670 38,766 28,585 21,083 EPS 45.2 44.1 54.9 29.0 54.4

540,023 555,898 595,415 605,368 614,858 EBITDA 80,160 85,835 84,942 72,884 80,324

() FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

(, %) FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

25,608 24,199 30,078 15,898 29,774 PER 20.9 19.2 21.1 39.1 35.2

33,546 32,930 33,169 36,711 36,559 PBR 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.7

(12,877) (5,877) (5,668) (20,164) 3,597 PSR 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.9

40,634 59,134 56,884 19,377 66,526 P/CF 13.1 7.9 11.2 32.1 15.8

(16,381) (17,587) (21,599) (30,466) (19,058) 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.3

18,460 (98,772) (77,163) 16,805 (57,747) 57.5 63.2 62.5 61.8 61.9

(31,422) (17,583) (10,812) (38,410) (13,007) 13.6 15.9 15.2 10.8 12.0

27,672 (57,221) (31,091) (2,228) (4,228) 7.5 7.3 8.8 4.8 8.2

FCF 24,253 41,547 35,285 (11,089) 47,468 ROA 3.8 3.6 4.3 2.2 4.1

42.8 75.8 64.5 (20.3) 86.7 ROE 4.7 4.4 5.2 2.7 4.9

:

55

Analyst | /

Eisai(4523.JP) Global Research

Eugene Equity

/


, 2

Eisai() .

(Aricept) (Pariet)

2009 2009 8,032

2015 5,479 . 2015

2020 8,000 . 2020

,

CNS() 2

CNS

. E2609 BACE(

) inhibitor 2 . BAN2401

2 .

Biogen ,

.

1983 ,

.

2017

2015 45% .

,

. 2017

Not rated

(5/23) 6,785

(: 2016. 5. 23)

Eisai Co., Ltd

1941

NIKKEI225(pt) 16,654.6

TOPIX(pt) 1,338.7

() 2,012.2

52 /() 8,996/6,200

52 Beta 0.8

(13A, %) 2.2

(%) 31.0

(%)

SUMITOMO MITSUI TRUS 10.6


VANGUARD GROUP 6.1

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01

Eisai

Nikkei225()

() (pt)

(3) 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016F

() 573,676 599,490 548,465 547,922 568,788

() 70,462 66,398 28,338 51,935 47,578

() 71,428 62,297 25,876 50,473 42,743

() 48,275 38,251 43,254 54,933 28,043

EPS() 169.4 134.1 151.6 192.2 103.7

(%) -17.5 -20.8 13.0 26.8 -46.1

PER() 24.8 30.0 56.3 35.2 65.4

ROE(%) 10.9 7.7 7.7 9.4 5.1

PBR() 2.5 2.2 4.1 3.4 3.5

EV/EBITDA() 11.0 11.8 36.8 22.6 26.9

:

: Calender Year (2015A 2016/03/31 )

56

Analyst | /

87 Eisai

1941

10,183

CEO: Haruo Naito/ 1975.10 Eisai , 1988 CEO

2007 MGI Pharma

2015 (Liaoning Tianyi Biological Pharma)

:

88 Eisai 89 Eisai

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

Eisai

()

()

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

Eisai

()

()


90 Eisai R&D 91 Eisai

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

50

100

150

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250

93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

EisaiR&D

R&D

()

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

EisaiNikkei 225MSCI Japan Healthcare

(1995=100)


57

Analyst | /

92 Eisai

FY2016 ()

1996 63.3

2008 54.7

/ 1997 46.1

2008 41.6

2010 40.2

2012 24.7

2014 11.5

:

93 Eisai

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Japan

North America

China

Europe

Rest Of World

()

: Bloomberg,

: Eisai 3 2015 FY2016(2016/03/31 )

94 Eisai

(%)





JP Morgan Chase Bank(London) 4.32 Investment Advisor


Others 66.23

: Bloomberg,

58

Analyst | /

95 : CNS


96 10


59

Analyst | /

Eisai(4523.JT)

() FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

(, ) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

1,004,660 990,249 973,823 1,053,818 973,987 647,925 573,676 599,490 548,465 547,922

525,835 530,727 459,774 474,724 447,800 95,748 70,462 66,398 28,338 51,935

478,825 459,522 546,809 579,094 526,187 94,646 71,428 62,297 25,876 50,473

581,233 515,946 444,418 451,757 397,159 58,511 48,275 38,251 43,254 54,933

207,932 215,740 201,334 209,065 154,711 EPS 205 169 116 152 192

373,301 300,206 243,084 242,692 242,448 EPS 205 169 134 151 192

423,427 474,303 529,405 602,061 576,828 EBITDA 144,442 121,555 106,327 67,278 85,999

() FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

(, %) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

58,511 48,275 38,251 43,254 54,933 PER 16.0 24.8 30.0 56.3 35.2

48,694 51,093 39,929 38,940 34,064 PBR 2.2 2.5 2.2 4.1 3.4

(17,498) (18,838) 16,723 18,493 35,913 PSR 1.4 2.1 1.9 4.4 3.5

90,624 73,181 91,276 76,022 95,617 P/CF 10.3 16.4 12.6 32.0 20.2

(11,414) (8,659) (8,570) (11,483) (6,814) 4.6 3.6 3.7 1.8 2.2

(2,561) 21,740 20,885 (18,841) (6,701) 73.2 69.6 67.1 64.5 64.5

(78,297) (65,033) (100,697) (37,767) (82,925) 14.8 12.3 11.1 5.2 9.5

9,766 29,888 11,464 19,414 5,991 9.0 8.4 6.4 7.9 10.0

FCF 79,210 64,522 82,706 64,539 88,803 ROA 5.7 4.8 3.9 4.3 5.4

278.0 226.4 290.0 226.2 310.8 ROE 14.2 10.9 7.7 7.7 9.4

: : Eisai 3 FY2016 2016/03/31 (2015 )

:

60

Analyst | /

Astellas(4503.JP) Global Research

Eugene Equity

, /


10 ,

Astellas( ) 2005

10 ,

2 . ,

100% ,

10

astellas 10

. , ,

CNS

. OSI . (,

), ASP2215(), ADC

1 11% . PER 15.6, ROE 14.5%, PBR

2.2 .

. , +a . 3

M&A .

Not rated

(5/23) 1,481

(: 2016. 5. 23)

Astellas Pharma Inc.

1923

NIKKEI225(pt) 16,654.6

TOPIX(pt) 1,338.7

() 3,290.5

52 /() 2,009/1,358

52 Beta 0.8

(13A, %) 2.2

(%) 52.7

(%)


STATE STREET CORP 7.3


0

5000

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0

500

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13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01

Astellas

Nikkei225()

() (pt)

(3) 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016F

() 981,899 1,139,909 1,247,259 1,372,706 1,412,132

() 120,456 116,806 185,663 248,986 274,711

() 127,115 121,974 189,683 261,770 276,000

() 92,464 90,874 135,856 193,687 200,481

EPS() 40.3 40.5 61.5 89.8 94.8

(%) 18.9 0.4 52.0 45.9 5.6

PER() 25.1 30.3 32.0 16.7 15.6

ROE(%) 8.4 7.4 10.5 15.0 14.5

PBR() 1.9 2.2 3.3 2.5 2.2

EV/EBITDA() 11.8 12.9 15.6 N/A 8.5

:

: Calender Year (2015A 2016/03/31 )

61

Analyst | /

97 Astellas

1923

17,113

2

CEO: Yoshihiko Hatanaka/ 2011.06 CEO / (Yamanouchi)

2004 (Yamanouchi) + (Fujisawa)

: ,

:

98 Astellas 99 Astellas

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

Astellas

()

()

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

Astellas

()

()

: :

100 Astellas R&D 101 Astellas

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

50

100

150

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250

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

AstellasR&D

R&D

()

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

AstellasNikkei 225MSCI Japan Healthcare

(1995=100)

: :

62

Analyst | /

102 Astellas

FY2016 ()

2012 252.1

2007 203.6

2005 135.6

2011 46.8

2009 37.4

2006 30.9

:

103 Astellas

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Japan

North America

Asia

Europe

Rest of the World

()

: Bloomberg,

: Astellas 3 2015 FY2016(2016/03/31 )

104 Astellas

(%)

State Street Bank and Trust 7.16 Bank


Fidelity Management & Research 5.12 Investment Advisor


Astellas Pharmaceutical 4.34 Corporation


Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank 3.08 Bank


Others 62.46 -

: Bloomberg,

63

Analyst | /

Astellas(4503.JT)

() FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

(, ) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

1,400,629 1,565,271 1,653,108 1,793,578 1,799,338 969,387 981,899 1,139,909 1,247,259 1,372,706

781,078 772,718 913,292 965,958 897,537 131,519 120,456 116,806 185,663 248,986

619,551 792,553 739,816 827,620 901,801 127,074 127,115 121,974 189,683 261,770

382,507 390,665 384,632 475,662 540,129 78,230 92,464 90,874 135,856 193,687

314,170 324,900 340,688 420,890 413,359 EPS 34 36 40 62 90

68,337 65,765 43,944 54,772 126,770 EPS 34 40 40 61 90

1,018,122 1,174,606 1,268,476 1,317,916 1,259,209 EBITDA 197,019 171,623 181,110 251,137 318,174

() FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

(, %) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

78,230 92,464 90,874 135,856 193,687 PER 20.1 25.1 30.3 32.0 16.7

65,500 51,167 64,304 65,474 69,188 PBR 1.5 1.9 2.2 3.3 2.5

21,307 (7,263) (16,325) 17,518 (59,913) PSR 1.6 2.4 2.4 3.5 2.4

172,675 150,926 214,257 187,686 313,737 P/CF 9.1 15.4 12.8 23.2 10.3

(47,678) (31,342) (29,261) (24,159) (33,512) 3.7 2.6 2.2 1.5 2.1

(25,953) (55,101) (26,851) (71,476) (147,050) 67.1 63.5 63.9 69.8 75.6

(69,808) (83,292) (60,945) (111,153) (203,088) 13.6 12.3 10.2 14.9 18.1

76,914 12,533 126,461 5,057 (36,401) 8.1 9.4 8.0 10.9 14.1

FCF 124,997 119,584 184,996 163,527 280,225 ROA 5.7 6.2 5.6 7.9 10.8

54.1 52.1 82.3 74.0 129.8 ROE 7.7 8.4 7.4 10.5 15.0

: : Astellas 3 FY2016 2016/03/31 (2015 )

:

64

Analyst | /

Chugai Pharma(4519.JP) Global Research

Eugene Equity

(Roche) /


(Roche)

Chugai Pharmaceuticals( ) 1925 2002

(Roche) . 60%

.

R&D R(Research) , D(Development)

.

8

. ,

ACE910 8

2015 29% , 1 9% .

, ,

Not rated

(5/23) 3,825

(: 2016. 5. 23)

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd

1925

NIKKEI225(pt) 16,654.6

TOPIX(pt) 1,338.7

() 2,141.2

52 /() 5,083/3,110

52 Beta 0.9

(13A, %) 1.5

(%) 77.2

(%)

ROCHE HOLDING AG 59.9



0

5000

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01

Chugai

Nikkei225()

() (pt)

(12) 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016F

() 386,552 423,652 461,109 498,840 501,495

() 74,663 78,738 75,859 86,784 75,246

() 72,678 76,944 76,164 87,276 75,847

() 46,052 50,895 50,980 61,125 53,517

EPS() 84.6 93.5 93.5 112.0 97.7

(%) 10.5 0.1 19.7 -12.8

PER() 19.5 24.9 31.7 37.9 39.2

ROE(%) 9.3 9.3 8.7 10.0 8.5

PBR() 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.7 3.3

EV/EBITDA() 7.7 11.1 15.3 20.3 20.8

:

65

Analyst | /

105 Chugai

1925

7,169

CEO: Osamu Nagayama/ 1978 Chugai , 2012.08 CEO / Sony (2010.06~)

2002 + ( )

:

106 Chugai 107 Chugai

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

Chugai

()

()

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15

Chugai

()

()

: :

108 Chugai R&D 109 Chugai

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

ChugaiR&D

R&D

()

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

ChugaiNikkei 225MSCI Japan Healthcare

(1995=100)

: Chugai 12

:

:

66

Analyst | /

110 Chugai

FY2015 ()

2007 93.8

2006 90.4

1998 32.7

1997 29.0

2007 11.6

1996 8.2

2014 7.3

:

111 Chugai

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Domestic()

Export( )

()

: Chugai 12

: Bloomberg,

112 Chugai

Roche

60%

Others

31%

Master Trust

Bank Of Japan

4%

Japan Trustee

Services Bank

3%

Chugai

Pharmaceutical

2%

: Bloomberg,

67

Analyst | /

Chugai(4519.JT)

() FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

(, ) FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

533,482 645,325 697,212 739,538 787,401 373,516 386,552 423,652 461,109 498,840

419,429 455,100 504,235 538,904 567,773 62,430 74,663 78,738 75,859 86,784

114,053 190,225 192,977 200,634 219,628 57,129 72,678 76,944 76,164 87,276

74,410 116,164 124,008 141,782 160,130 35,234 46,052 50,895 50,980 61,125

68,822 94,718 97,667 114,350 133,058 EPS 65 89 93 94 112

5,588 21,446 26,341 27,432 27,072 EPS 65 85 93 93 112

459,072 529,161 573,204 597,756 627,271 EBITDA 78,330 88,835 93,228 90,739 102,351

() FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

(, %) FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

35,234 46,052 50,895 50,980 61,125 PER 19.6 19.5 24.9 31.7 37.9

15,900 14,172 14,490 14,880 15,567 PBR 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.7

457 16,335 (19,660) (33,302) (15,945) PSR 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.5 4.6

69,593 77,542 53,521 37,034 62,918 P/CF 9.9 11.6 23.7 43.6 36.8

(11,238) (14,849) (11,287) (16,232) (18,367) 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.4

(15,135) (54,901) (13,213) (14,351) (45,269) 8.8 10.1 13.6 17.8 22.6

(25,128) (21,670) (20,683) (23,715) (29,980) 57.8 56.5 55.9 52.7 51.8

29,330 971 19,625 (1,032) (12,331) 16.7 19.3 18.6 16.5 17.4

FCF 58,355 62,693 42,234 20,802 44,551 ROA 9.4 11.9 12.0 11.1 12.3

107.2 115.2 77.6 38.2 81.6 ROE 6.8 7.8 7.6 7.1 8.0

: : Chugai 12 FY2015 2015/12/31

:

68

Analyst | /

Daiichi-Sankyo(4568.JP) Global Research

Eugene Equity

/


Daiichi Sankyo( ) 2005

3, 19 .

M&A . 2008

(Ranbaxy) , 2008 U3

. (Luitpold). 1

. 2015

,

ARB (Olmesartan).

3,000 30% 2016

10 , 2017 2 2

. 2016 , ,

1,720 2015 2,444 30%

. .

2015

3 . 2014

, 2015 MR 750

16,000 15,000

Not rated

(5/23) 2,600

(: 2016. 5. 23)

Daiichi-Sankyo

1899

NIKKEI225(pt) 16,654.6

TOPIX(pt) 1,338.7

() 1,843.0

52 /() 2,756/1,972

52 Beta 0.9

(13A, %) 2.7

(%) 27.1

(%)

MITSUBISHI UFJ FINAN 7.4



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01

Daiichi Sankyo

Nikkei225()

() (pt)

(3) 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016F

() 994,659 1,118,241 919,372 986,446 914,855

() 98,743 111,552 74,422 130,412 110,390

() 95,860 99,775 79,937 122,387 109,044

() 64,027 60,943 322,119 82,282 71,220

EPS() 91.0 86.6 457.6 119.4 105.0

(%) 516.7 -4.8 428.5 -73.9 -12.1

PER() 20.0 20.1 28.7 21.0 24.8

ROE(%) 7.5 6.5 28.2 6.5 5.4

PBR() 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.4

EV/EBITDA() 8.4 7.2 10.4 6.9 9.4

:

: Calender Year (2015A 2016/03/31 )

69

Analyst | /

113 Daiichi Sankyo

1899

16,428

3, 19

CEO: Joji Nakayama/ 2014.04 CEO / (Daiichi)

2005 (Sankyo) + (Daiichi)

2006 Astellas OTC

2008 (Ranbaxy)

2008 U3(U3 Pharma)

2014

: ,

:

114 Daiichi Sankyo 115 Daiichi Sankyo

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Dai ichi ()

()

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Daiichi ()

()

: :

116 Daiichi Sankyo R&D 117 Daiichi Sankyo

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

50

100

150

200

250

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Dai ichi SankyoR&D

R&D

()

0

50

100

150

200

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Daiichi-SankyoNikkei 225MSCI Japan Healthcare

(2005=100)

: :

70

Analyst | /

118 Daiichi Sankyo

FY2016 ()

2011 82.4

1996 73.9

2011 42.4

:

119 Daiichi Sankyo

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Japan

North America

Europe

Rest of the Wor ld

India

()

: Bloomberg,

: Daiichi Sankyo 3 2015 FY2016(2016/03/31 )

120 Daiichi Sankyo

(%)



Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking 5.55 Investment Advisor



Daiichi Sankyo 3.61 Corporation

JP Morgan Chase Bank 2.66 Investment Advisor


Others 64.08 Bank

: Bloomberg,

71

Analyst | /

Daiichi-Sankyo(4568.JT)

() FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

(, ) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

1,518,479 1,684,949 1,854,037 1,982,286 1,900,522 938,677 994,659 1,118,241 919,372 986,446

861,530 829,786 990,603 785,334 1,125,268 98,202 98,743 111,552 74,422 130,412

656,949 855,163 863,434 1,196,952 775,254 33,915 95,860 99,775 79,937 122,387

685,730 746,469 846,510 675,245 667,001 10,383 64,027 60,943 322,119 82,282

394,965 424,556 461,188 297,496 379,694 EPS 15 95 87 458 119

290,765 321,913 385,322 377,749 287,307 EPS 15 91 86 66 119

832,749 938,480 1,007,527 1,307,041 1,233,521 EBITDA 155,583 144,003 163,038 116,445 174,718

() FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

(, %) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

10,383 64,027 60,943 322,119 82,282 PER 102.2 20.0 20.1 28.7 21.0

57,381 45,260 51,486 42,023 44,306 PBR 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.4

10,073 (6,688) (173) 2,458 18,934 PSR 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.7

92,569 129,284 37,304 142,776 174,281 P/CF 11.5 9.9 32.8 9.4 9.9

(54,576) (72,226) (47,497) (38,500) (27,136) 4.0 3.3 3.5 3.1 2.8

(125,095) (108,837) (161,368) (21,278) (5,967) 71.4 66.0 64.0 64.9 67.7

(57,202) (42,251) 115,989 (115,196) (135,527) 10.5 9.9 10.0 8.1 13.2

(89,728) (21,804) (8,075) 6,302 32,787 1.1 6.4 5.4 35.0 8.3

FCF 37,993 57,058 (10,193) 104,276 147,145 ROA 0.7 4.0 3.4 16.8 4.2

54.0 81.1 (14.5) 148.1 213.5 ROE 1.3 7.5 6.5 28.2 6.5

: : Daiichi-Sankyo 3 FY2016 2016/03/31 (2015 )

:

72

Analyst | /

LG(068870.KS)

/ Tel. 368-6170 / [email protected]

BUY 93,000

LG BUY 93,000

. 2016 EBITDA 783 10 EV/EBITDA 24.0

. 1 R&D

2003

. , .

R&D , (

) .

R&D R&D

2016 9.4% 4,929, 40.4%

354 . () 2015 371 2016 459

, DPP-4

2015 248 2016 506

5 , 6

1 .

2016 3

. 2018 .

2

BUY()

(12M, ) 93,000

(5/23) 70,900

(: 2016. 5. 23)

KOSPI(pt) 1,955.3

KOSDAQ(pt) 691.0

() 5,000

() 1,175.3

52 /() 91,100 / 47,300

52 Beta 1.94

() 16,577

(3M,) 153

(3M,) 10,139

(16F, %) 0.0

(%) 7.5

(%)

()LG 2 31.0

12.0

(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

1.3 15.5 5.5 14.5

KOSPI 4.3 13.3 7.9 23.4

(12) 2015 2016F 2017F

() 450.5 492.9 528.1

() 25.2 35.4 38.5

() 13.9 24.9 28.1

() 11.4 20.4 23.0

EPS() 695 1,276 1,440

(%) 83.5 12.9

PER() 87.2 55.6 49.2

ROE(%) 4.5 7.6 7.9

PBR() 4.0 4.3 4.0

EV/EBITDA() 21.3 19.5 18.2

:

& R&D

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

()

:

73

Analyst | /

121 122

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

()

()

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

()

()

: :

123 LG ()

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

()

()

:

74

Analyst | /

124 LG

() 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16F 3Q16F 4Q16F 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

837 1,036 1,271 1,361 1,198 1,158 1,182 1,390 4,505 4,929 5,281 5,658

-41 34 189 70 171 55 69 58 252 353 385 457

-5% 3% 15% 5% 14% 5% 6% 4% 6% 7% 7% 8%

752 890 1,064 1,178 1,074 1,007 1,016 1,234 3,884 4,331 4,664 5,038

-8 37 182 67 166 50 64 53 278 334 365 438

-1% 4% 17% 6% 15% 5% 6% 4% 7% 8% 8% 9%

85 146 207 183 124 151 166 156 621 598 617 620

() -33 -3 7 3 5 5 4 5 -26 19 19 19

-39% -2% 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% 3% -4% 3% 3% 3%

() 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16F 3Q16F 4Q16F 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

79 102 95 114 92 108 101 125 390 426 462 501

50 60 80 79 60 66 92 89 269 308 350 399

52 50 50 61 48 47 46 57 213 198 184 171

46 64 52 33 49 53 49 29 195 181 165 150

59 89 105 118 96 112 119 132 371 459 503 532

73 88 65 111 59 97 62 115 337 333 335 338

47 63 64 74 104 121 132 148 248 506 631 655

B 50 46 52 94 68 57 67 119 242 311 386 456

:

125 LG

()

1,879

EBITDA()

78.3 2016

EV/EBITDA() 24.0 10

()

342

()

1,537

()

16,577

()

92,740

(5/24)

70,400

32%

:

75

Analyst | /

LG(068870.KS)

(:) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F (:) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

262 255 215 188 166 426 451 493 528 566

50 24 -20 -69 -114 (%) 2 6 9 7 7

106 105 102 112 122 201 219 240 263 283

103 120 127 140 152 (%) 47 49 49 50 50

391 452 510 568 627 184 194 205 224 238

39 37 39 40 42 (%) -1 5 6 10 6

305 354 394 436 480 16 25 35 38 46

48 61 76 91 105 (%) 13 56 40 9 19

653 707 725 756 793 EBITDA 48 62 78 86 99

97 161 158 165 172 (%) 19 28 27 10 14

50 74 70 77 84 -14 -11 -11 -10 -10

29 60 60 60 60 1 1 1 1 1

0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10

306 288 289 290 291 0 0 0 0 0

279 261 261 261 261 0 0 0 0 0

22 23 24 25 26 -5 -2 -1 -1 -1

404 449 447 455 463 2 14 25 28 35

84 84 84 84 84 4 3 5 5 6

147 147 147 147 147 0 0 0 0 0

-1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 11 20 23 29

-0 -0 -0 -0 -0 (%) 79 13 26

19 29 49 72 101 (%) -0 3 4 4 5

249 258 278 301 330 EPS -127 695 1,276 1,440 1,812

308 322 322 322 322 (%) 84 13 26

() 258 298 342 391 435 EPS -127 695 1,276 1,440 1,812

506 554 619 691 764 (%) 84 13 26

(:) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

16 46 56 57 67 ()

2 14 20 23 29 EPS -127 695 1,276 1,440 1,812

32 36 43 48 53 BPS 14,817 15,312 16,523 17,889 19,608

0 0 1 1 1 DPS 0 0 0 0 0

-31 -15 -8 -15 -16 (,%)

() 1 1 3 -10 -10 PER na 87.2 55.6 49.2 39.1

() -3 -17 -8 -12 -13 PBR 2.4 4.0 4.3 4.0 3.6

() -9 4 -4 7 7 PCR 10.4 14.2 18.6 16.6 14.4

-19 -4 0 0 0 EV/ EBITDA 18.0 21.3 19.5 18.2 16.4

-52 -93 -100 -106 -112 0.0 0.0 na na na

() 1 -2 0 0 0 (%)

() 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 3.8 5.6 7.2 7.3 8.1

-32 -73 -79 -85 -91 EBITDA 11.3 13.7 15.9 16.4 17.5

0 0 0 0 0 -0.5 2.5 4.1 4.4 5.1

() -20 -18 -19 -19 -19 ROE -0.8 4.5 7.6 7.9 9.2

62 21 0 0 0 ROIC -3.1 3.9 4.9 4.8 5.1

() 62 21 0 0 0 (%,)

() 0 0 0 0 0 / 103.3 115.5 122.9 129.8 132.0

0 0 0 0 0 268.6 158.0 136.3 114.1 96.6

() 26 -26 -44 -49 -45 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.2 5.0

24 50 24 -20 -69 ()

50 24 -20 -69 -114 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Gross cash flow 59 72 64 72 83 4.0 4.3 4.8 4.9 4.9

Gross investment 83 106 108 121 128 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9

Free cash flow -24 -34 -44 -49 -45 7.3 7.3 6.9 7.2 7.0

:

76

Analyst | /

(086900.KQ)


BUY 60

BUY 60

. 2016~2017 EBITDA 810 EV/EBITDA

29.0(1993~1998) , (9,910)

. 7 4

4 42%

57% 58% .

1 (M/S 74%) 2013

9 L/O cGMP .

, 2016 3

IND 3

2016

2016 44% 1,276, 35% 698

. HA ,

M/S 2015 296 2016 618 109%

2018 ,

. 2016 3

, .

41% ROE

BUY()

(12M, ) 600,000

(5/23) 455,000

(: 2016. 5. 23)

KOSPI(pt) 1,937.7

KOSDAQ(pt) 687.7

() 500

() 2,573.7

52 /() 629,500 / 396,000

52 Beta 1.33

() 5,657

(3M,) 34

(3M,) 15,236

(16F, %) 0.4

(%) 37.4

(%)

8 21.8

() 5.7

(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

3.2 6.4 -5.6 -2.6

KOSPI 5.4 -0.4 -5.6 1.0

(12) 2015 2016F 2017F

() 88.5 127.6 145.4

() 51.7 69.7 78.3

() 52.0 69.1 77.4

() 42.3 56.2 63.0

EPS() 7,477 9,932 11,132

(%) -3.1 32.8 12.1

PER() 68.6 45.8 40.9

ROE(%) 43.4 41.3 34.0

PBR() 25.6 16.2 12.1

EV/EBITDA() 51.3 33.2 29.0

:

HA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

()

:

77

Analyst | /

126 127

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

()

()

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

()

()

: :

128 129

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

()

()

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

()

()

: :

78

Analyst | /

130 Allergan 131 Allergan

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

()

($)

-200%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

()

($)

: :

132

() 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16F 3Q16F 4Q16F 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

188 219 230 248 288 320 317 351 885 1,276 1,454 1,944

108 125 119 130 126 142 131 153 481 552 631 717

50 64 81 100 135 152 159 172 296 618 716 772

30 30 30 18 27 27 27 27 108 107 106 456

111 140 125 140 166 174 168 190 517 698 783 1,118

59% 64% 54% 56% 58% 54% 53% 54% 58% 55% 54% 58%

:

133

()

2,346

EBITDA()

81.0 2016

EV/EBITDA() 29.0 1993~1998

991.0

()

-50

()

3,387

()

5,657

()

598,713

(5/24)

455,000

32%

:

79

Analyst | /

134

2013 9 L/O

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

dermal 1,400 1,600

2,000

($mm) 3,600 4,000 4,300 4,700 5,200 5,600 6,048 6,508 6,978 7,456 7,942 8,434 8,930 9,428 9,929 10,429

yoy 11% 8% 9% 11% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%

2,664 2,842 2,933 3,077 3,268 3,379 3,503 3,619 3,725 3,821 3,907 3,983 4,049 4,104 4,149 4,184

74% 71% 68% 65% 63% 60% 58% 56% 53% 51% 49% 47% 45% 44% 42% 40%

2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 10% 12% 13% 14% 15% 15% 17%

3

3

($mm) 104 168 242 325 488 746 953 1,096 1,250 1,414 1,489 1,773

Upfront fee & Milestone ($mm) 13 13 13 102 102 30 30 30 30

allergan

( 10% ) 10 17 24 33 49 75 95 110 125 141 149 177

($mm) 17 27 39 52 78 119 152 175 200 226 238 284

() 143 143 143 1,121 1,419 480 692 1,257 1,723 2,459 3,052 3,136 3,575 4,045 4,259 5,071

EBIT () 129 129 129 1,009 1,277 432 623 1,131 1,551 2,213 2,747 2,822 3,218 3,640 3,833 4,564

FCF () 103 103 103 807 1,022 346 498 905 1,241 1,770 2,197 2,258 2,574 2,912 3,067 3,651

PVIF 1.00 1.00 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.73 0.69 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.44 0.41

PV 103 103 97 712 846 269 364 620 798 1,070 1,247 1,203 1,288 1,368 1,353 1,512

NPV 12,847

Continuing value 5,172

16%

Terminal

growth

rate

-5%

NPV + CV 18,019 EBIT

90%

Success

rate 55%

9,910 20% WACC 6.5%

1,100 /$

() 5,657

() 175,202

:

80

Analyst | /

(086900.KQ)

(:) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F (:) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

103 103 106 141 206 76 89 128 145 194

85 78 74 106 153 (%) 94 17 44 14 34

13 18 23 25 39 69 74 105 118 156

4 6 7 8 12 (%) 91 84 82 81 80

65 100 142 163 182 19 23 35 40 44

4 9 11 11 12 (%) 9 19 54 14 11

51 81 114 127 141 50 52 70 78 112

10 10 18 24 30 (%) 198 3 35 12 43

169 204 248 304 388 EBITDA 53 56 76 86 121

35 48 49 49 53 (%) 184 5 37 13 41

5 4 5 6 9 4 0 -1 -1 -1

8 25 25 25 25 2 0 0 1 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

52 43 41 43 45 -0 1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -0 -0 -0

52 43 41 43 45 2 -0 -1 -1 -1

87 90 90 92 98 54 52 69 77 111

3 3 3 3 3 10 10 13 14 21

14 14 14 14 14 0 0 0 0 0

-25 -27 -32 -32 -32 44 42 56 63 90

-25 -27 -33 -33 -33 (%) 205 -3 33 12 44

90 123 174 227 306 (%) 57 48 44 43 46

82 113 158 212 291 EPS 7,713 7,477 9,932 11,132 15,981

8 25 25 25 25 (%) 205 -3 33 12 44

() -76 -52 -50 -82 -129 EPS 7,713 7,477 9,932 11,132 15,981

5 57 104 125 157 (%) 205 -3 33 12 44

(:) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

105 22 51 70 87 ()

44 42 56 63 90 EPS 7,713 7,477 9,932 11,132 15,981

3 4 6 8 9 BPS 14,424 20,062 28,018 37,451 51,431

-2 -0 5 2 2 DPS 1,500 1,700 1,700 2,000 2,000

55 -22 -14 -2 -15 (,%)

() -3 -5 -5 -2 -14 PER 41.5 68.6 45.8 40.9 28.5

() -2 -2 -1 -1 -4 PBR 22.2 25.6 16.2 12.1 8.8

() 1 1 1 1 3 PCR 33.7 51.1 38.2 35.4 25.4

59 -16 -9 0 0 EV/ EBITDA 32.8 51.3 33.2 29.0 20.2

-84 -7 -45 -31 -31 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

() -63 30 4 -2 -2 (%)

() 0 0 -0 -0 -0 65.8 58.4 54.6 53.8 57.5

-17 -30 -37 -18 -18 EBITDA 69.6 62.7 59.5 59.2 62.2

0 0 0 0 0 57.5 47.8 44.0 43.3 46.5

() -4 -4 -10 -10 -10 ROE 61.3 43.4 41.3 34.0 36.0

-21 7 -5 -10 -11 ROIC 145.5 134.1 70.4 55.8 64.7

() 0 16 0 0 0 (%,)

() -8 -9 0 -10 -11 / -93.4 -46.2 -31.3 -38.5 -44.2

8 9 0 10 11 295.0 217.7 218.9 286.8 391.5

() 1 22 -0 30 45 -29.1 -179.9 -495.5 -262.4 -238.0

4 5 27 27 57 ()

5 27 27 57 102 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6

Gross cash flow 54 57 67 73 101 6.5 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.1

Gross investment -35 59 63 31 43 27.7 18.4 19.8 19.5 19.5

Free cash flow 88 -2 5 41 58 22.3 19.6 26.6 25.8 25.8

:

81

Analyst | /

(145020.KQ)


BUY 43

BUY 43 .

2016~2017 EBITDA 403 (1993~1998)

EV/EBITDA 29.0 .

, ,

4 42%

HA ,

2020 .

GBI research 2020 56

9.2% , 2020 27

12.5% . BK

3 ,

.

2016 4

7

. , 3

, HA 2016 1

BUY()

(12M, ) 430,000

(5/23) 326,500

(: 2016. 5. 23)

KOSPI(pt) 1,937.7

KOSDAQ(pt) 687.7

() 500

() 1,072.2

52 /() 347,000 / 166,500

52 Beta 0.70

() 3,284

(3M,) 31

(3M,) 8,877

(16F, %) 0.0

(%) 18.3

(%)

() 17 26.9

10.6

(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

4.6 41.3 N/A N/A

KOSPI 6.8 34.6 N/A N/A

(12) 2015 2016F 2017F

() 65.1 98.9 123.6

() 17.8 35.6 40.4

() 39.3 36.9 42.1

() 35.9 32.4 38.4

EPS() 10,331 9,421 11,572

(%) N/A -8.8 22.8

PER() 19.2 34.7 28.2

ROE(%) 28.6 14.5 14.8

PBR() 3.1 4.5 3.8

EV/EBITDA() 30.7 26.2 23.0

:

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HA

()

:

82

Analyst | /

135 136

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

()

()

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

()

()

: :

137 138

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

()

()

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

HA

()

()

: :

7

83

Analyst | /

139

() 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16F 3Q16F 4Q16F 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

76 168 182 225 227 245 259 258 651 989 1,236 1,422

48 80 78 94 98 104 90 104 301 396 429 459

HA 23 50 62 99 97 105 103 139 234 443 573 709

1 40 43 87 88 91 100 77 178 356 404 468

1% 24% 24% 39% 39% 37% 38% 30% 27% 36% 33% 33%

:

140

()

1,169

EBITDA()

40.3 2016~17

EV/EBITDA() 29.0 1993~1998

()

-83

()

1,252

()

3,284

()

381,337

(5/24)

326,500

32%

:

84

Analyst | /

(145020.KQ)

(:) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F (:) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

52 107 120 140 161 40 65 99 124 142

30 78 84 89 105 (%) 38 61 52 25 15

20 21 25 36 39 28 39 68 80 88

2 8 10 14 15 (%) 70 59 69 65 62

45 126 144 165 190 13 21 33 40 41

12 13 15 15 16 (%) 35 61 57 22 4

32 49 65 86 111 15 18 36 40 47

1 64 64 63 63 (%) 34 15 100 13 16

97 234 263 305 351 EBITDA 16 19 38 43 50

54 18 13 17 18 (%) 32 20 96 13 16

3 4 8 12 13 0 22 1 2 2

48 11 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1

0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 52 -1 -1 -1

0 0 1 1 1 -0 -31 1 2 2

55 18 14 18 19 16 39 37 42 49

1 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4

11 141 141 141 141 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 4 4 4 13 36 32 38 44

0 0 0 0 0 (%) 80 173 -10 18 16

29 63 94 133 177 (%) 33 55 33 31 31

43 215 249 287 332 EPS 0 10,331 9,421 11,572 13,391

48 11 1 1 1 (%) -9 23 16

() 19 -67 -83 -87 -104 EPS 0 10,331 9,421 11,572 13,391

55 141 158 192 219 (%) -9 23 16

(:) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

11 20 27 30 45 ()

16 39 34 38 44 EPS 0 10,331 9,421 11,572 13,391

1 2 2 2 3 BPS 0 63,290 73,202 84,891 98,417

-1 -52 2 1 1 DPS 0 0 0 0 0

-6 2 -11 -12 -3 (,%)

() -8 8 -4 -12 -3 PER na 19.2 34.7 28.2 24.4

() 0 -3 -2 -4 -1 PBR na 3.1 4.5 3.8 3.3

() 3 -2 -4 4 1 PCR na 31.3 27.9 25.6 22.1

-0 -1 -2 0 0 EV/ EBITDA 1.2 30.7 26.2 23.0 19.4

-8 -17 -25 -26 -29 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

() -0 10 -5 -0 -1 (%)

() 0 -0 -2 -1 -1 38.4 27.3 36.0 32.7 32.9

-6 -12 -18 -24 -27 EBITDA 39.9 29.7 38.2 34.7 35.1

0 0 0 0 0 32.6 55.1 32.8 31.1 31.2

() -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 ROE 37.8 28.6 14.5 14.8 14.8

-2 50 0 0 0 ROIC 27.0 16.5 20.9 21.0 20.7

() -3 -15 0 0 0 (%,)

() 1 65 0 0 0 / 43.8 -31.2 -33.3 -30.4 -31.3

0 0 0 0 0 96.3 601.5 897.1 818.6 887.7

() 1 53 2 4 16 55.8 -45.2 -33.8 -36.2 -35.0

17 17 70 72 76 ()

17 70 72 76 92 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Gross cash flow 18 21 38 42 48 2.5 3.2 4.3 4.0 3.7

Gross investment 13 25 31 37 32 23.2 13.5 11.2 10.3 9.6

Free cash flow 5 -4 7 4 17 22.1 21.5 17.0 12.4 11.5

:

85

Analyst | /

Compliance Notice

3

1%

3

,

, , , ,

, .

/

: 12 ( ) (%)

STRONG BUY() +50% 5%

BUY() +20% ~ +50% 82%

HOLD() 0% +20% 12%

REDUCE() 0% 1% (2016.3.31 )

2 LG(068870.KS)

()

2016-05-25 BUY 93,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

14/01 14/04 14/07 14/10 15/01 15/04 15/07 15/10 16/01 16/04

LG

()

2 (086900.KQ)

()

2016-05-25 BUY 600,000

0

100,

Documents

제약 바이오 일본 제약 바이오 탐방기 · 지속적인 신약 후보물질 개발이 추가 성장을 위한 핵심으로 판단함 국내업체 중 지속적인 신약