Upload
isabella-peterson
View
219
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Scanning for Planning
Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant
SLA 2006Alane Wilson
Senior Library Market Consultant
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Trend Spotting started here for Trend Spotting started here for OCLCOCLC
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Why Do this?
Western Union
Personal computer
Amazoogle, YaBay,
Skating where the puck will be
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Traditional Planning
Extrapolates from the past/present
Focus is on industry situation
Solving current problems
No holistic view of external factors
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Futuring: 4 Questions
Can we predict the future?
Can we know the future?
Can we control the future?
Can we influence the future?
SometimesSometimes
NONO
NONO
YESYES
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
The Four Types of Change
Continuous Discontinuous
TrendsAging
Economic growth
EventsFall of Berlin Wall
September 11
ImprovementsMarket shareFewer defects
TransformationsNew leadership
New vision
Giv
en
Ch
osen
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Prediction and Forecasting
Prediction
Physical evidence
Strong assumptions
Unitary phenomenon
Higher quality inferences
Forecasting
Intangible evidence
Weak assumptions
Multiple possibilities
Lower quality inferences
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Short-term horizon Long-term horizon
Single domain Many domains
Few factors Many factors
Focus on continuity Focus on discontinuity
Hide uncertainty Reveal uncertainty
Single forecast Alternative forecasts
Quantitative techniques Qualitative techniques
Traditional Forecasting Futures Forecasting
Forecasts - Two Approaches
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Scenarios enhance
creativity in visioning
Scanning for trends
Identify key forces
Scenario matrix narratives
Vision
Mission
Goals
Likely and alternative futures Preferred Futures
Generation of new strategies
Evaluation of new andexisting strategies
Strategic priorities and plan of actionDiagram from the Institute for Alternative Futures www.altfutures.com
Are strategies robust? Do they work in most
or all scenarios?
Do strategies align with vision, mission
and goals?
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
What is Environmental Scanning?
“Environmental scanning focuses on the identification of emerging issues, situations and potential pitfalls that may affect an organization…in essence, it is a method for identifying, collecting and translating information about external influences into useful plans and decisions.”
Kendra S Albright, “Environmental Scanning: Radar for Success.” Information Management Journal, 38(3), May/June 2004.
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Content of an Environmental Scan STEEP
Social, technological, environmental, economic, political landscapes
PEST(LE)
Political, economic, social, technology (legislative, environmental)
SETRLL
Social, economic, technology, research & learning, libraries
Whatever!
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Trend Spotting
It’s about observing, reading, musing, synthesizing and understanding
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
The 3 Main Challenges
Management and corporate culture
They’re just not that into trends
Resources
Time, funds, attention
Understanding and applying trends
Thinking BIG and…so what?
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Management and corporate culture
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Resources
Too much, not enough, too expensive, no time, who cares I’m retiring…
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Understanding and Applying Trends
Back to STEEP, PEST and SETRLL
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
The Amazoogle* Effect
Comprehensive
Accessible
Immediate gratification
Market-of-One
*Coined by Lorcan Dempsey,OCLC VP of Research
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Why haven’t you ever used the online library Web site?
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
…is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines?
0
20%
40%
60%
70%
80%
50%
30%
10%
TotalRespondents
AustraliaSingapore
India
Canada UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
22%
69%
9%
24%
66%
10%
28%
60%
12%18%
75%
7%
21%
70%
9%
Library sources more trustworthy Library sources less tr
Q1205
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
The Internet of Things
“spimes” & “blogjets”
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
“I can’t understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I’m frightened of
the old ones.” John Cage