2009 2
______________________
. ····································································································6
. ··························································································13
1.- ················································································20
2. ··················································28
3. ········································································41
4. ································································45
5. ··························································47
. ························································································································56
< 2> ···································································22
< 3> (EX) ·····························································23
< 4> (EM) ·····························································24
< 5> EX+EM ······················································································25
< 6> ·········································································26
< 7> ·································································31
< 8> -···························································································32
< 11> -·····························································································34
< 13> ...····························································36
< 14> -·························································································37
< 18> - ···································································40
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< 23> ·························································································51
< 24> ·······························································································53
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approach) , (absorption approach)
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- 12 -
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- 13 -
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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1997 2005
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16)“ ”,http://paper.wenweipo.com/2003/09/03/CH0309030105.htm,2003 9
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- 16 -

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- 22 -
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PPI() (/) PPI()/
1997 100 8.2898 12.0630
1998 95.9 8.2791 11.5834
1999 93.6 8.2783 11.3067
2000 96.2 8.2784 11.6206
2001 94.9 8.2770 11.4655
2002 92.8 8.2770 11.2118
2003 94.9 8.2770 11.4655
2004 100.7 8.2768 12.1665
2005 105.6 8.1917 12.8911
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- 23 -
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- 24 -
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2005 101.8 100.8
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( : )
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1,399 1,450 1,547 1,656 2,122 2,864 4,033 6,100 8,189 10,664 15,282
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1997 779.74 390.30 996.02 702.06 52.14 331.34
1998 742.35 436.80 1,044.54 685.99 50.22 279.58
1999 791.35 670.40 1,108.82 735.78 49.14 250.81
2000 1,051.81 1,000.79 1,376.52 925.58 63.70 324.57
2001 1,118.81 1,134.56 1,474.33 939.74 67.83 361.23
2002 1,361.87 1,291.11 1,799.28 1,222.01 94.82 438.59
2003 1,820.34 1,876.51 2,418.51 1,629.04 143.45 621.22
2004 2,436.06 2,481.45 3,279.70 2,216.94 217.44 913.91
2005 3,150.63 2,796.33 4,164.67 2,740.12 304.23 1,063.08
2006 4,162.00 3,330.74 5,103.55 3,214.72 423.81 1,369.15
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32),“ ”,,2007,pp.16-35
1997 453 8.5
1998 456 0.7
1999 404 -11.4
2000 407 1.0
2001 468 14.9
2002 527 12.5
2003 535 1.4
2004 606 13.3
2005 603 -0.5
2006 694 4.1
2007 748 13.6
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1998 380 170 334 263 388 67 297 282 627 150
1999 419 195 355 326 369 69 324 338 780 172
2000 521 224 455 408 445 94 417 415 1,129 232
2001 543 262 492 484 465 94 450 428 1,252 234
2002 699 272 583 520 585 107 484 534 1,553 286
2003 925 339 882 697 763 111 594 741 2,009 431
2004 1,249 447 1,224 890 1,009 118 735 943 2,781 622
2005 1,629 486 1,656 964 1,245 122 840 1,004 3,510 768
2006 2,034 592 2,154 1,149 1,553 108 916 1,157 4,452 897
2007 2,327 694 2,452 1,110 1,844 128 1,021 1,340 561 1,038
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2005
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2,327 1,633 .
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- 55 -
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,pp.10-11
- 56 -

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8., , ,
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2.Robinson.J,"The Foreign Exchange,in Essays in the Theory of
Employment",New York:Macmillan
PoliticalEconomy,84,1976,pp.1161-76
4.Gaillot,H.J.,"PurchasingPowerParityasanExplanationofLong-Term
8. , “1985-1995”,, 19977,
pp.55-62
pp.289-290
,2007 2,pp.1-10
,pp.47-53
,pp.1-11
- 61 -
,pp.85-88
,2007 5,pp.34-40
26,pp.87-92
20073,pp.57-63
20071
,2002
,2003817
),pp.21-22
,2005 5
transformationintheinternationalfinanceandtrade.Itbecomesanimportant
policy,the RMB exchange rate fluctuation plays an important role in
stimulating China’sexportand improving China’stradebalance.Afterits
reform inJuly,2005,moreflexibleexchangeratesystem hasenlargedthe
betweenRMBexchangerateandChina’simportandexporttrade.Basedon
structure.
Theresultsofempiricalstudyareasfollows:Firstly,accordingtothe
definitionoftheelasticitytheoryandtheinfluenceoftheexchangerateon
trade balance can be effectively improved with the devaluation ofthe
exchangerate.Onthecontrary,theslightrevaluationofRMBexchangerate
willhave a certain kind ofnegative impacton China’s foreign trade.
Secondly,inordertoknow theimpactofRMB exchangerateonChina’s
addingthefactorofnationalincome.Theresultshowsthatthesum ofthe
pricedemandelasticityofChina’simportandexportissmallerthan1,which
doesn’tfitMarshall-LernerCondition.Despitethefactthatthepricefactoris
growthmodeofChina’sforeigntradeandimprovesChina’stradeconditions.
Thereform ofexchangeratesystem canreducetradesanctionsandimprove
increasing the cooperation among multilateralcurrencies,accelerating the
industrialupgradingofexportproducts,developingvariousformsofforeign
tradeandimprovingtheabilitytodealwithrisks.
Keywords:RMBrevaluation,theelasticitytheory,Marshall-LernerCondition,
balanceofpayments
- 65 -
< 1> (PPI) (1982=100 )
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1997 133.0 132.7 132.6 131.8 131.5 131.3 130.9 131.4 131.6 131.9 131.6 131.4
1998 130.7 130.6 130.5 130.7 130.5 130.4 130.7 130.4 130.4 130.9 130.8 131.3
1999 131.7 131.2 131.5 132.1 132.3 132.4 132.7 133.5 134.5 134.4 134.9 135.2
2000 135.2 136.6 137.3 136.9 137.0 138.1 138.2 137.9 139.0 139.5 140.2 140.5
2001 141.7 141.9 141.2 142.0 142.3 141.8 140.1 140.7 141.3 139.0 138.5 138.0
2002 137.7 138.0 138.8 138.7 138.4 138.8 138.6 138.7 139.2 140.0 140.0 139.7
2003 141.1 142.7 144.0 142.2 141.9 142.7 142.8 143.7 144.0 144.8 144.6 145.1
2004 145.7 145.7 146.2 147.3 148.6 148.5 148.3 148.6 148.7 151.1 152.0 151.2
2005 151.9 152.7 153.6 154.3 153.9 154.0 155.1 156.3 158.6 160.0 158.6 159.4
2006 160.6 158.8 159.3 160.4 160.5 161.4 161.0 162.3 160.0 158.1 160.1 161.1
2007 160.9 162.9 164.4 165.5 166.5 166.6 167.5 166.1 167.0 167.9 172.3 171.4
:BureauofLaborStatistics,U.S.A
- 66 -
GDP() (/) GDP()
1997 78,973.0 8.2898 9,526.53
1998 84,402.3 8.2791 10,194.62
1999 89,677.1 8.2783 10,832.79
2000 99,214.6 8.2784 11,984.76
2001 109,655.2 8.2770 13,248.18
2002 120,332.7 8.2770 14,538.20
2003 135,882.8 8.2770 16,416.91
2004 159,878.3 8.2768 19,316.44
2005 183,867.9 8.1917 22,445.63
2006 210,871.0 7.9718 26,452.12
2007 246,619.0 7.3216 33,683.76
Producer Price Index (PPI)
1997 100
1998 95.9
1999 93.6
2000 96.2
2001 94.9
2002 92.8
2003 94.9
2004 100.7
2005 105.6
2006 108.8
2007 112.2
:2007 1985 1997 .
< 5>
1997 8.2898 1,827.90 1,423.70
1998 8.2791 1,837.10 1,402.40
1999 8.2783 1,949.30 1,657.00
2000 8.2784 2,492.00 2,250.90
2001 8.2770 2,661.00 2,435.50
2002 8.2770 3,256.00 2,951.70
2003 8.2770 4,382.30 4,127.60
2004 8.2768 5,933.20 5,612.30
2005 8.1917 7,619.50 6,599.50
2006 7.9718 9,689.40 7,914.60
2007 7.3216 12,180.00 9,558.00
:, ,2007 ()
2.
.
1. -
3.
4.
5.
.