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Gruntfest’s career as applied geographer
• Learning from the 1976 Big Thompson flood
• Social scientist in world of engineers & physical scientists
The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado July 31, 1976
• 140 lives lost – 35 miles from Boulder
• Studied the behaviors that night – Who lived? – Who died? – Led to detection &
response systems
Focus on flash floods & warning systems
What we know about warnings – Public response components
• Hear/receive • Understand • Believe • Personalize • Decide to act • Respond
The warning process is complex
WAS*IS weather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues
“I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impacts BUT…
– I don’t know how & – I don’t know anyone else who does this kind
of work”
WAS*IS aims to change the weather enterprise by comprehensively & sustainably integrating social science into meteorological research & practice
Opportunity to develop WAS * IS concept & workshops 2005-2006 at NCAR
Support from US Weather Research Program The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA)
The National Center for Atmospheric Research Institute for the Study of Society & the Environment (ISSE) & the Societal Impacts Program (SIP) The University of Oklahoma, & Monash University Sustainability Institute, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Emergency Management Australia & others
Eve Gruntfest & Julie Demuth WAS * IS founders
What is WAS*IS? 1. Building an interdisciplinary community of
practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders -- from the grassroots up --who are dedicated to the integration of meteorology & social science –
Mostly early career folks!
Capacity building –- creating a community for lifelong
collaboration & support!
What is WAS*IS?
2. Providing opportunity to learn & examine ideas, methods, & examples related to integrated weather-society work
• Tools – GIS, surveys, qualitative methods
• Concepts – initiating & building relationships, many publics, end-to-end-to-end
• Topics – risk communication, communicating uncertainty, vulnerability
The WAS*IS movement – so far
• Originally envisioned as only 1 workshop • 5 workshops so far
– Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (November 2005 & March 2006)
– Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) – 2006 Summer WAS*IS (July 2006) – Australia WAS*IS (January-February 2007) – 2007 Summer WAS*IS (July 2007)
Each workshop had a distinct character with common mission - Grand total of 145 WAS*ISers
Summer 2008 WAS*IS scheduled for August 8-15
• Human impact on the environment • Risks/hazards for humans • Relationships of env. Issues to political, economic, cultural processes
1) Role of S&T in production of knowledge about nature 2) Human/animal relationships
Why WAS*IS?
Integrate (not add on) social science into meteorology
Grow a community of people passionate
about & dedicated to this
Recognize that (meteorology + social
science) > sum of its parts!
Avoiding another Hurricane Katrina is NOT just about improving the weather forecasts
Address societal impacts in real & sustained ways
Tangible accomplishments
• New collaborations
• Manuscripts published November 2007 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Environmental Hazards, Weather & Forecasting
• Development of forecast confidence scale on weather blog (www.capitalweathergang.com/)
• New jobs, invited presentations
• Visibility – – Presentations at American Meteorological Society Meeting 2007,
more in 2008!
– sessions at Association of American Geographers meeting, Chicago 2006, San Francisco 2007, Boston 2008
“Intangible” accomplishments
• The growing WAS*IS network!
– Empowering, lifelong connections
• Idea development & sharing
• Peer mentoring – you can do a dissertation that incorporates societal impacts, you can find out what “consumers think” if you are a forecaster in the National Weather Service
• Community of WAS*ISers who continually interact with each other!
Rebecca Morss - National Center for Atmospheric Research Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society • problem definition • social science research agendas & • end-to-end-to-end process
Local government
agencies (e.g., floodplain management)
End-to-End-to-End Researchers & Decision-Makers
Professional associations
Private engineering consultants
Private land developers
Researchers Private businesses
Local government
elected officials
State & regional governments
Federal government
Julie Demuth - co director of WAS*IS
Demuth, J. et al (2007) Weather & Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS): Building a Community for Integrating Meteorology & Social Science Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88(11) 1729-1737
Improving communication of weather forecast uncertainty
• Assess people’s interpretations, uses, & preferences • Working with economists & psychologists
Image courtesy of ESRI (http://www.esri.com)
Olga Wilhelmi - Organizing spatial data in a GIS
Geology
Population
Hydrology
Topography
Weather
Atmospheric Conditions
Demographic vulnerability
weighting
Total Vulnerability
Vulnerability assessment- physical & social
65_up Hispanic
Female Renter
classification
Critical Facilities Identify Vulnerability Factors
Emphasis on social relevance rather than product performance --Provide what public needs/wants
Lindsey Barnes New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls
Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D, Benight C (2007) False Alarms and Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy.Weather and Forecasting 22, 1140-1147
Karen Pennesi – Anthropologist U of Western Ontario - Public perceptions of rain prophets & the Federal Weather Service in Brazil
Predictions based on observations of insects, animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, & other natural phenomena
Pennesi K (2007) Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 88, 7, 1033-1044
Randy Peppler – Leading efforts at U of Oklahoma in cultural studies of weather
Dissertation topic: Native American perceptions of weather information
Interdisciplinary doctoral committee
Public – private – nonprofit collaborations to improve all elements of weather enterprise
REFRAMED as collaborative with emphases on
– Better communication – More geographic specificity – Reduced confusion – Partnership opportunities
Kevin Barjenbruch National Weather Service
Melissa Tuttle Carr The Weather Channel
Talked to many groups & agencies >500 people
National Weather Service Private sector companies
Local Communities
The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model - Bring social science into meteorology research & practice in sustainable ways
Meteorologists, Hydrologists
Universities
Research Centers
American Meteorological Society
Broadcast meteorologists
Toward improved understanding of warnings for short-fuse weather events
National Science Foundation funded study of perceptions in Austin, TX & Denver, CO incorporates WAS * IS talent
Warning project publications: Environmental Hazards 2007 -- Vol 7
C. Benight, E.Gruntfest, M. Hayden, L. Barnes Trauma and short-fuse weather warning perceptions S. Drobot C. Benight, E. Gruntfest Risk factors for driving into flooded roads M. Hayden, S. Drobot, S. Radil, C. Benight, E. Gruntfest, L. Barnes Information sources for flash flood warnings in Denver, CO and Austin, TX I. Ruin, J-C. Gaillard, C. Lutoff How to get there? Assessing motorists’ flash flood risk perception on daily itineraries
Extreme speed of watershed responses
Extremely short lead-time for
warnings
Ph.D. work by Isabelle Ruin from Grenoble: Human exposure during the 2002 Flash flood event new time/space analysis Loss of life: Warning efficiency
All sources of weather information used
n=935
Behavioral survey project
Observe driver’s behavior at low water crossings in Texas
Quantitative survey • Use of video • car counting
Qualitative survey • Use Youtube video, travels log & in-depth
interviews
http://70.253.207.10/view/index.shtml
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Austin Denver
Would I drive through flooded roads?
New area to ponder – What wouldn’t have happened without WAS*IS? • TEACHING - New course offerings in Weather & Society
U North Carolina Asheville U of Oklahoma U of Colorado Denver
• RESEARCH Publications in BAMS, Environmental Hazards, Weather & Forecasting
• Many presentations at professional meetings • Several quick response proposals sent in for collaborative work to the Natural Hazards Research & Applications Information Center • Many people are friends of WAS*IS but are not official WAS*ISers
Chris Godfrey Sam Ng
More possibilities under the WAS*IS umbrella
• More advanced WAS*ISes • Using WAS*IS to inform other NOAA activities
– RISAs climate/weather continuum, Social Science Working Group – Offer suggestions to the Hazardous Weather Testbed
• Moving from WAS to IS beyond weather to hydrology, emergency management, climate
• Capstone courses in physical science programs • Facilitating career advancement
• Continuing annual WAS*IS workshops • WAS*IS to introduce meteorology to social scientists
Some additional funding obtained • WAS*IS virtual textbook (Demuth, Drobot, Gruntfest)
– Highlight the methods, results, & cooperative efforts of successful integrated weather & social science projects
Use as (1) part of undergraduate graduate-level courses & (2) a reference for scientists & practitioners to apply in their
own work
– First Advanced WAS * IS – National Weather Service WAS * IS held October 23-25,2007 in Kansas City
Proposed new initiative DELUGE network
Focus on post-event field studies for floods to maximize interactions between social scientists, hydrologists & meteorologists
New guidelines on post-event investigations for use by integrated teams of physical scientists, social scientists, & practitioners
Disasters: Evolving Lessons Using Global Experience
New initiative
Social science initiative: Funding ~50% NOAA & 50% U of Oklahoma Three main goals:
1. To recognize & develop the existing social science activities in Norman
2. To build a strong integrated community of academicians, practitioners, researchers, & others with particular attention to early career folks who will coordinate new projects & proposals to assure that efforts are woven into the fabric of the National Weather Center in Norman & elsewhere
3. To assess the viability & interest in a new interdisciplinary (or revamped) Ph.D. program at the University of Oklahoma focused on the societal impacts of weather & climate change
Six proposed activities of the Norman social science initiative 1. Formalize collaborative arrangements in
sustainable ways
2.Develop new ways to ensure that social science is woven in — not a one-time add-on — to increase value of forecasts produced by NOAA & private sector
3. Build an active identity connecting the Norman professional community interested in societal impacts (focus on the willing -- no one is being dragged into this)
Six proposed activities of the Norman social science initiative 4. Arrange workshops in Hazardous Weather Test-bed to
involve emergency managers, forecasters, & others bring a small group of WAS * ISers & others to see
state-of-the- art & help with development of “useful” new forecasting tools
6. Develop seminars & other measures to bring folks together on topics with external speaker to engage weather professionals from in & out of Norman
6. Focus on developing a cadre of graduate students & early career meteorologists, social scientists & hydrologists committed to collaboration on projects related to societal impacts of weather & climate
Social science initiative personnel
• Dr. Eve Gruntfest geographer with 30 years experience as social scientist working with meteorologists – 3 months @ year x 3 years
• 2 Ph.D. students – half time: 3 years – Working on interdisciplinary degrees – Dedicated to integrating social science into National Weather
Center
• 1 Post-doc – full time: 3 years – Poised to take leadership of integrated social science
activities as tenure-track faculty member at OU in 2011 (national search to be conducted)
Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea analogy One Man's Mission to Promote Peace . . . One School at a Time (Best selling book about building schools in Afghanistan & Pakistan)
• 1st cup- stranger • 2nd cup- honored guest • 3rd cup- you’re part of family… takes years
• With 145 official WAS*ISers & hundreds of other like-minded hard-workers
• Social science & policy are having our 2nd cup of tea with meteorology— We’re not family yet – but we’re no longer strangers
National Weather Service
Private forecasters/ Urban Drainage Districts
Local residents
WAS*IS & the new Social Science Initiative succeed when stovepipes are not the model - Bring social science into existing programs & research efforts in sustainable ways – NOW
Atmospheric scientists
Universities
Research centers Social scientists
What did the most influential players look like in meteorology prior to 2006 WAS*IS?
WAS * ISers are NOT the same people with new technologies--- models or radars or widgets
The new fiesta – WAS * ISers!
WAS*IS weather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
Keep up with Weaving Social Science into the National Weather Center Fabric as it gets rolling
Questions – Comments Eve Gruntfest [email protected]
