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020359.pptp.1
April 2003ChevronTexaco Overseas Petroleum
Stanford University
Understanding Energy Flow and Policy Issues:
‘Global Distribution Of Oil, Gas and Coal’Dr. Nahum Schneidermann
The Pacific Rim
NO MATH = A GEOLOGIST = A REAL JOB?
Global Population Distribution The World at Night
2
Core Business Technology Capabilities Are Deeper and Broader
• Deepwater E&P
• Heavy oil recovery and upgrading
• Gas-to-liquidsMajor TechnologyPrograms
• Shallow wateroperations
• Next-generation global IT infrastructure
• Gasification
U.S.A. Fossil Fuels Balance
Production Exports Imports Consumption
OIL (1,000 b/d) 7,716 982 11,619 19,335
NATURAL GAS (Tcf) 19.36 0.39 4.03 23.39
COAL (MM-Tons) 1,121 48.7 19.8 1,140.8
Where is the oil coming from?
Jan-'03 %-Total Dec-'01
Saudi Arabia 1820 14 1,611
Canada 1,621 12 1,356
Mexico 1566 12 1,394
Nigeria 798 7 842
Iraq 600 5 795
U.K. 411 3 244
Venezuela 399 3 1,291
Angola 245 2 321
Kuwait 134 1 237
Colombia 120 1 260
Projected World Energy Supplies
19001900 19201920 19401940 19601960 19801980 20002000 20202020 20402040 20602060 20802080 30003000
2020
4040
6060
8080
100100100 BILLION
BARRELS
BillionBarrels
of OilEquivalent
per Year(GBOE)
BillionBarrels
of OilEquivalent
per Year(GBOE) Natural
GasNatural
Gas
HydroelectricHydroelectric
Crude OilCrude Oil
Solar, WindGeothermal
Nuclear Electric
1993
CoalCoal
Decreasing
Decreasing
Fossil FuelsFossil Fuels
New
TechnologiesN
ew Technologies
World Energy DemandWorld Energy Demand
Edwards, AAPG 8/97
Heavy + OilHeavy + Oil
Source: Ausubel, American Scientist, March-April 1996
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
Year
Methane: H/C = 4
Coal: H/C = 1
Oil: H/C = 2
Methane Economy
Hydrogen
0.1
1
10
100
Hyd
roge
n/ca
rbon
ratio
Decarbonization
Wood H/C = 0.1
3
The Origin of PetroleumThe Origin of Petroleum
OrganicOrganic--richrichSource RockSource Rock
ThermallyThermallyMaturedMatured
Organic MatterOrganic MatterOilOil
001146.fh8
0.5
0.6 % R
1.1 % R
R
0.70.8
OilWindow= Principal Zoneof Oil Formation
Principal Zone of Gas –Condensate Formation
Principal Zone ofGas Formation
After Vassoevich et al 1975
Diagenetic Zone ofGas Formation
Generation Intensity
1.0
1.3
2.0
IncreasingDepthand
Temperature
Vitrinite Reflectance vs.Principle Generation Zones
o
o
o
Oil
Vitrinite Reflectance vs. Principle Generation Zones
Petroleum System ElementsPetroleum System Elements
24803
Source RockSource Rock
Top Seal RockTop Seal Rock
Reservoir RockReservoir Rock
Anticlinal TrapAnticlinal Trap
(Organic Rich)(Organic Rich)
(Impermeable)(Impermeable)
(Porous/Permeable)(Porous/Permeable)PotentialPotentialMigration RouteMigration Route
Known Oil Source Rocks
ExcellentGoodFair
4
Major Oil Regions
p.4020359.ppt
Proved
Prospect Database
Unproved
Contingent Resources
P1D P1U
P2 P3
P4 P5 P6Discovered Reserve Opportunity
$$
Resource MovementResource Movement
Field Appreciation
020359.ppt
p.70203
59.p
pt
100.00.11.1DENMARK99.90.11.2AZERBAIJAN99.90.11.5SHARJAH99.90.11.5CONGO REP.99.90.21.7COLOMBIA99.90.22.1ECUADOR99.90.22.5SYRIA99.90.22.5GABON99.90.32.9EGYPT99.90.33.0ARGENTINA99.60.33.5AUSTRALIA99.30.43.9OTHER C.I.S.98.90.44.0YEMEN98.50.44.0DUBAI98.10.44.3BRUNEI-MALAYSIA97.70.54.8INDIA97.20.54.8CANADA96.70.54.9U.K.96.20.55.0INDONESIA95.70.55.4KAZAKHSTAN95.20.55.4ANGOLA94.70.65.5OMAN94.10.88.4BRAZIL93.30.99.2ALGERIA92.40.99.4NORWAY 91.51.515.2QATAR90.02.222.0U.S.A.87.82.424.0NIGERIA85.42.424.0CHINA83.02.726.9MEXICO80.32.929.5LIBYA77.44.948.6RUSSIA72.57.877.6VENEZUELA64.79.089.7IRAN55.79.292.2ABU DHABI46.59.494.0KUWAIT37.111.2112.5IRAQ25.925.9259.2SAUDI ARABIA
Distribution of
2001 World
“Proved” Oil Reserves
Countries with over1B BBL Oil Reserves
12 Countrieshold 90 % of theWorld’s ProvedOil Reserves
COUNTRY 2001 WORLD OILRESERVES (1,025.9 B bbl)
PERCENT OFTOTAL
CUMULATIVEPERCENT
020359.ppt
Bill
ion
Bar
rels
0
25
50
75
100
125
DE
NM
AR
KA
ZER
BA
IJA
NC
ON
GO
RE
P.
SH
AR
JAH
CO
LOM
BIA
EC
UA
DO
RG
AB
ON
SYR
IAE
GYP
TA
RG
EN
TIN
AA
US
TRA
LIA
OTH
ER
C.I.
S.
DU
BA
IYE
ME
NBR
UNEI
-MAL
AYSI
AC
AN
AD
AIN
DIA
U. K
.IN
DO
NE
SIA
KA
ZAK
HS
TAN
AN
GO
LAO
MA
NB
RA
ZIL
ALG
ER
IAN
OR
WA
YQ
ATA
RU
.S.A
.N
IGE
RIA
CH
INA
ME
XIC
OLI
BYA
RU
SS
IAV
EN
EZU
ELA
IRA
NA
BU
DH
AB
IK
UW
AIT
IRA
QS
AU
DI A
RA
BIA
259.2
p.80203
59.p
pt
2001Oil Reservesfor Countries(Countries with
>1Bbbl OilReserves)
5
020359.pptp.9
2001 Production Maturity Index(Produced / D.T.D.)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
ABU DHABISHARJAH
IRAQYEMEN
KUWAITSAUDI ARABIA
QATARIRAN
BRAZILVENEZUELA
CONGO REPUBLICLIBYA
ANGOLADUBAI
NIGERIAGABONCHINAINDIAOMAN
DENMARKECUADORALGERIAMEXICO
SYRIANORWAY
AUSTRALIARUSSIA
BRUNEI-MALAYSIAARGENTINA
EGYPTCOLOMBIA
AZERBAIJANKAZAKHSTAN
INDONESIAU.K.
CANADAOTHER C.I.S.
U.S.A.
Maturity Index %020359.ppt
p.10
2001 Daily Oil Production(Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
SHARJAHDUBAI
AZERBAIJANCONGO REP.
GABONDENMARK
YEMENECUADOR
OTHER C.I.S.SYRIA
KAZAKHSTANCOLOMBIA
AUSTRALIAINDIA
QATARANGOLA
EGYPTARGENTINA
ALGERIABRUNEI-
OMANBRAZIL
INDONESIALIBYA
ABU DHABIKUWAIT CANADANIGERIA
U. K.IRAQ
VENEZUELAMEXICO
NORWAYCHINA
IRANU.S.A.
RUSSIASAUDI
M il l io n B ar re ls / D ay
020359.pptp.12
2001 Global Oil(Reserves / Production Ratio)
OIL RESERVES (1,026 Bbbls)
ProductionRate at
24Bbbls / year
2001
43 years
2043
UndiscoveredReserves ?
020359.pptp.13
2001 Oil R/P Ratio(Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175
U. K.CANADA
COLOMBIANORWAY
DENMARKU.S.A.
ARGENTINAEGYPT
INDONESIABRUNEI-
SYRIAAZERBAIJAN
ECUADORAUSTRALIA
OMANCONGOBRAZILCHINAINDIA
ANGOLARUSSIA*GABON
MEXICOOTHER C.I.S.*KAZAKHSTAN
ALGERIAYEMEN
NIGERIADUBAILIBYA
QATARIRAN
SHARJAHVENEZUELA
SAUDI ARABIAKUWAIT
IRAQABU DHABI
Years Remaining
6
020359.pptp.14
Year to Which 2001 Production Level is Sustainable(Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)
2001 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175
CANADAU. K.
COLOMBIANORWAY
DENMARKARGENTINA
EGYPTU.S.A.
INDONESIAAZERBAIJAN
SYRIABRUNEI-
OMANAUSTRALIAECUADOR
CONGOBRAZIL
INDIACHINA
GABONRUSSIA*ANGOLAMEXICO
OTHER C.I.S.*KAZAKHSTAN
YEMENALGERIANIGERIA
DUBAILIBYA
QATARIRAN
SHARJAHVENEZUELA
SAUDI ARABIAKUWAIT
IRAQABU DHABI
Year
020359.pptp.15
Crude Oil Reserves of the United States(2001) Reserves vs. Production Ratio
.
30
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Billion Barrels Ratio
Reserve Production Ratio25
20
15
10
5
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
01999 2000 2001
020359.pptp.16
OPEC vs. Non-OPEC 2001 Oil Well Producers(Number of Producing Oil Wells)
539,75460,89872,25553,30215,27714,238
8,5356,8883,3862,9912,492
1,6851,567
SAUDI ARABIALIBYAU.A.E.U.K.AUSTRALIAEGYPTALGERIAIRANECUADORKUWAITNORWAYANGOLAQATARGABON
1,5601,4701,4551,4301,3921,3291,2841,1201,041
790742561417375
OPEC (Countries)Non-OPEC (Countries)
U.S.A.C.I.S.CHINACANADAVENEZUELAARGENTINAINDONESIABRAZILINDIAMEXICOCOLOMBIA
2,298OMAN2,374NIGERIA
IRAQBRUNEI - MALAYSIA
2,374NIGERIA2,298OMAN
Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ.
020359.pptp.17
OPEC Countries 2001 Oil Production Comparison(Barrels / Day / Well)
SAUDI ARABIAIRANKUWAITQATARIRAQU.A.E.LIBYANIGERIAALGERIAVENEZUELAINDONESIA
5,0753,3002,5851,6111,3971,390
928877651184142
Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ
7
020359.pptp.18
Non - OPEC Countries 2001 Oil Production Comparison(Barrels / Day / Well)
NORWAYU.K.ANGOLAMEXICOGABONBRUNEI-MALAYSIAEGYPTAUSTRALIAOMANECUADORCOLOMBIAINDIABRAZILC.I.S.ARGENTINACHINACANADAU.S.A.
5,2891,7231,4221,007
872611552512406377224186164
5752454010
Petroleum ProductsPetroleum Products
Gasoline Gasoline -- 19.5 gallons19.5 gallons
One Barrel of Crude Oil Provides:One Barrel of Crude Oil Provides:
Fuel Oil Fuel Oil -- 9.2 gallons9.2 gallons
Jet Fuel Jet Fuel -- 4.1 gallons4.1 gallons
Asphalt Asphalt -- 2.3 gallons2.3 gallons
Kerosene Kerosene -- 0.2 gallons0.2 gallons
Lubricants Lubricants -- 0.5 gallons0.5 gallons
Petrochemicals,Petrochemicals,other products other products -- 6.2 gallons6.2 gallons
One Barrel =One Barrel =42 gallons42 gallons
American Petroleum Institute, American Petroleum Institute, 19991999
Petrochemical ProductsPetrochemical Products
•• Detergents Detergents -- CosmeticsCosmetics•• Fertilizers Fertilizers -- Weed KillersWeed Killers•• Medicine Medicine -- Antiseptics Antiseptics -- AnestheticsAnesthetics•• Plastics Plastics -- Synthetic FibersSynthetic Fibers•• Synthetic RubberSynthetic Rubber•• Rust PreventativesRust Preventatives•• Liquid Petroleum GasLiquid Petroleum Gas
American Petroleum Institute, American Petroleum Institute, 19991999
More Than 3,000 ProductsMore Than 3,000 Products
020359.pptp.26
North America Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000
18000
0
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
20000
Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000
8
020359.pptp.27
Latin America Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000
9000
0
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
10000
Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000
020359.ppt
Western Europe Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000
14000
0
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000
020359.ppt
Africa Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000
7000
0
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000
020359.ppt
Middle East Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000
20000
0
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
22000
Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000
9
020359.pptp.31
Asia & Far East Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000
020359.pptp.20
Major Gas Regions
Regional Gas Price Chart
WTI
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Jan-99
May-99
Sep-99
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
US$
/mm
btu
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
US$
/bbl
HH Index Troll Zeebrugge Japan LNG CIF Thailand HH Index Troll Zeebrugge
Japan LNG CIF Thailand WTI Mid ($/bbl) WTI Mid ($/bbl)
WTI
Major Gas Pipelines
10
020359.ppt
CUMULATIVEPERCENT
2001 WORLD GASRESERVES (5364.7 Tcf)
PERCENT OF TOTAL
COUNTRY
p.70203
59.p
pt
100.00.210.0MYANMAR (BURMA)99.80.210.6BANGLADESH99.60.210.7SHARJAH99.40.212.1GERMANY99.20.212.2PAPUA NEW GUINEA99.00.212.7THAILAND98.80.316.9YEMEN98.50.422.8INDIA98.10.523.4TRINIDAD97.60.524.0BOLIVIA97.10.525.0PAKISTAN96.60.625.9U.K.96.00.627.5ARGENTINA95.40.629.3OMAN94.80.629.5MEXICO94.20.635.2EGYPT93.60.844.0NORWAY92.80.946.4LIBYA91.90.948.3CHINA91.00.952.2KUWAIT90.11.159.7CANADA89.01.262.5NETHERLANDS87.81.265.0KAZAKHSTAN86.61.688.8BRUNEI-MALAYSIA 85.01.790.0AUSTRALIA83.31.792.5INDONESIA81.62.0109.8IRAQ79.62.3124.0NIGERIA77.32.7147.6VENEZUELA74.63.0159.7ALGERIA71.63.3177.4U.S.A.68.33.6196.1ABU DHABI64.74.1219.0SAUDI ARABIA60.64.3233.4OTHER C.I.S.56.39.5508.5QATAR46.815.1812.0IRAN31.731.71700.0RUSSIA
Distribution of
2001 World
“Proved” Gas Reserves
Countries with over10 Tcf Gas Reserves
17 Countrieshold over
90 % of theWorld’s ProvedGas Reserves
020359.pptp.23
2001 Yearly Gas Production(Countries with > 10 TCF Gas Reserves)
0 5 10 15 20 25
SHARJAHYEMEN
PAPUA N. GUINEABANGLADESH
MYANMAR (BURMA)IRAQ
BOLIVIALIBYAOMAN
NIGERIAKUWAIT
TRINIDADEGYPT
THAILANDGERMANY
ABU DHABIQATAR
PAKISTANCHINA
VENEZUELAINDIA
AUSTRALIAARGENTINA
SAUDI ARABIAMEXICO
IRANBRUNEI-MALAYSIA
NORWAYINDONESIA
NETHERLANDSALGERIA
U. K.CANADA
U.S.A.C.I.S.
Tri l l io n Cu b ic Feet / Year
Data Source: Oil & Gas Journal, et. al.
Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia production and/or numberof wells, include half of Neutral Zone area.
020359.pptp.24
2001 Gas R/P Ratio(Countries with > 50 TCF Gas Reserves)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
CANADAU.S.A.
NETHERLANDSOTHER C.I.S.
INDONESIABRUNEI-MALAYSIA
ALGERIAAUSTRALIA
RUSSIASAUDI ARABIA
VENEZUELAKUWAIT
KAZAKHSTANABU DHABI
IRANNIGERIA
QATARIRAQ
Years Remaining
020359.pptp.25
Natural Gas Reserves of the United States(2001) Reserves vs. Production Ratio
200
150
100
50
01990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
20
15
10
5
0
Trillion Cubic Feet Ratio
Reserve Production Ratio
1999 2000 2001
11
Gas
Distribution
Large Industrial
Pipeline
E & P
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Power Gen
Transmission
Power Generation
Natural Gas Value Chain
Distribution020359.ppt
OIL(Billion Barrels)
GAS(Trillion Cubic Feet)
North America
South America
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Far East
53.7
94.3
77.1
76.5
680.8
43.5
266.6
250.3
2168.1
381.9
1971.8
429.4
44.4
41.7
361.3
63.6
328.6
71.6
BOE(Barrels,Oil Equiv. of Gas)
WORLD TOTALS5468.1911.31025.9
p.37
World Oil & Gas Proven ReservesTo January 1, 2001
Coal Reserves Showing Regional Shares(at end of 1998)
Source: BP Amoco
Major Coal Producing & Consuming Countries
Producers 2001 Exports (2000)* Consumers 2001 Imports
(2000)*China 1,459 60 China 1,383 United States 1,121 58 United States 1,060 13 Australia 357 206 India 360 India 339 Russia 284 Russia 300 Germany 265 South Africa 250 77 South Africa 177 Germany 226 Japan 166 160 Poland 179 18 Poland 151 North Korea 105 Australia 144 Indonesia 100 63 North Korea 105 Ukraine 90 Ukraine 94
World 5,266 604 World 5,263 600
(Million Short Tons)
Source: EIA International Energy Annual 2001Includes all ranks of coal.
12
Major Trade Routes, 1998(million tons per annum)
Source: IEA
General globalCoal Resources
Major World Thermal Coal & Coking Coal Exporters
Global Hard Coal Consumptionin 1997 – 3755 Mt
Source: IEA
Generating Electricity from Coal
Coal Supply
Conveyor
Pulveriser/Mill
Ash Systems Water Purification
Boiler
Stack
Electricity
Condenser
Substation /transformer
Steam turbine
Generator
Source: IEA
13
Source: IEA
Electricity Consumption – MWh per capita
Source: WEC
Source: IEA
More Generating Capacity is Fueled by Gas
Natural Gas
Renewables
Petroleum
Source: EIA AEO2003
-500
500
1500
2500
3500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
billi
on K
Wh
Coal
Nuclear
Projected• Natural gas units
expected to dominate new and replacement capacity additions
• Gas captures additional 13% of the power market by 2025
• Coal will remain the primary fuel for electricity generation
14
Gas –The Shape Of Things To Come
Source: GHK Company
Wood & hay
1997Hydrogen
solids
Petroleum oil Actual gas consumption Actual liquids consumption Actual solids consumption
“City Gas”
Whale oil Natural gas
Oil & hydroelectric
Coal & nuclear
liquids
Oil & natural
gasliquids
Natural gas
gases
Global Energy Systems Transition Percent Of Market
0
20
40
60
80
100
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150