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UNLocK Report
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UNLocK Report 15
Human Insecurity in Nigeria
October 2011 - April 2012
The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational
organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote
sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society,
building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for
policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace
focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and
approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers.
Copyright © 2012 The Fund for Peace.
All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace.
The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment Produced with the assistance of The Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law
UNLocK Reports Series Editor
Nate Haken
Report Written by
Natalie Manning
Megan Turner
Amelia Whitehead
The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CUNGR1212 (Version 07C)
Circulation: PUBLIC
The Fund for Peace
1720 I Street NW
7th Floor
Washington, D.C. 20006
T: +1 202 223 7940
F: +1 202 223 7947
www.fundforpeace.org
2 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
55th Anniversary 1957-2012
Introduction & Contents
This report was compiled by Natalie
Manning, Amelia Whitehead, and Megan
Turner under the supervision of Nate Haken,
Senior Associate at The Fund for Peace.
UNLocK partners with local civil society in
conflict-affected regions for better conflict
early warning, assessment and prevention by
integrating local knowledge into CAST, FFP’s
conflict assessment and early warning
methodology. The program, Conflict Early
Warning and Assessment, is made possible
with funding from the National Endowment
for Democracy. The statements and views
expressed are solely the responsibility of The
Fund for Peace.
Summary 4
Methodology 5
Analysis by Select Indicators 6
State-by-State Analysis 11
Timeline 14
Looking Ahead 15
About The Fund for Peace 16
3 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
UNLocK Nigeria
Overview
Comparative Periodic Analysis
32
24
16
8
0
Demographic P
ressu
res
Refugees a
nd ID
Ps
Group Grie
vance
Human Flig
ht a
nd Brain
Uneven Economic D
evelopment
Economic P
ressu
res
State Legitim
acy
Public S
ervice
s
Human Rights a
nd Rule of L
aw
Security
Apparatus
Factio
nalize
d Elite
s
External In
terventio
n
40
Percentage of Reports by Indicator
March 2011 - September
October 2011 - April 2012
Numbers represent a percentage of documents by period.
March 2011 - September 2011 vs. October 2011 - April 2012
UNLocK Nigeria
Summary and Findings
October 2011 - April 2012
As Goodluck Jonathan begins his new
term as President of Nigeria, he faces many
challenges. Even as a fragile peace takes
hold in the Niger Delta, gang violence and
criminality continue unabated. In the North,
Boko Haram, an Islamist terrorist group,
continues to wreak havoc. Though the
government has taken some steps towards
strengthening the democratic process,
instances of corruption and vote rigging have
been reported at the state and local levels
over the past seven months. The Nigerian
government, civil society, and other
stakeholders must take steps to address
these governance and security issues, or risk
further instability in the future.
This report compiles the incidents and issues
documented by civil society representatives
in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network
from October 2011 to April 2012, with a
particular focus on the state and local
government area levels of Rivers, Akwa Ibom,
Delta and Kaduna.
Incidents and issues summarized here
include election irregularities surrounding
gubernatorial elections, such as political
corruption and intimidation, as well as social
and economic pressures relating to land
competition, group grievance and violent
crime. These incidents and issues are
categorized according to the Conflict
Assessment System Tool (CAST) framework,
which allows for a holistic evaluation of the
pressures on society and the state that could
increase the risk of instability.
As is evident from the comparative periodic
analysis on the previous page, pressures
relating to the Security Apparatus and State
Legitimacy were less frequently reported in
this period than were reported in the
previous election and post-election period.
Pressures associated with Public Services and
Human Rights, however, have been more
frequently reported in this time period than
in the previous, as a percentage of the total
number of incidents.
This report does not presume to be
comprehensive or evenly distributed from
one indicator or location to another. Rather, it
provides a glimpse into the concerns and
perspectives of a particular network of civil
society organizations, trained in conflict
assessment, most of which are based in the
Niger Delta region, Kaduna, and Lagos.
Findings
This is the fifth summary report for
UNLocK Nigeria. This report covers incidents
logged during a seven month period (October
1 2011 – April 1 2012) by participating civil
society organizations. It is organized by
indicator, with maps showing affected states
and local government areas.
Broken down by indicator and state, there
were 101 reports logged during this period.
Of the 12 CAST indicators (see page 3 for a
list of the indicators), reports relating to
Human Rights were the most prevalent (41
reports), followed by those pertaining to
State Legitimacy (34 reports), Public Services
(27 reports), Security Apparatus (26 reports),
Group Grievance (9 reports), Factionalized
Elites (8 reports), Demographic Pressure (8
reports), Poverty and Economic Decline (7
reports), Human Flight (3 reports) and Uneven
Economic Development (2 reports).
Geographically, the vast majority of reports
came from the South-South geopolitical zone,
followed by the South-West and the North-
West zones, in order of frequency. Most of
the participating organizations are based in
the South-South.
The majority of participating organizations
focus on human and civil rights, which
influences the types of reports that they
contribute. This summary therefore provides
a rich description of the political and socio-
economic climate in these areas over the last
7 months, as seen by a specific network of
civil society organizations focused in the
Niger Delta region.
4 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
About the Program
Between October 2011 and April
2012, The Fund for Peace and the Institute
for Human Rights and Humanitarian Law held
three UNLocK workshops in Port Harcourt,
which were attended by representatives from
dozens of local civil society organizations.
During these workshops, participants
reviewed and contextualized CAST (FFP’s
conflict assessment framework) to make it
relevant to the local conflict landscape.
Members contribute incident reports to the
UNLocK database on an ongoing basis.
The goals of the project include fostering a
civil society-led conflict early warning and
prevention process, documenting events and
incidents, gathering data from across the
country (with an emphasis on the Niger Delta
region so far), and facilitating communication
between members of the network for the
purposes of data processing and analysis.
This information can be used for the crafting
of conflict-sensitive approaches to
development, as well as policies for medium-
to long-term conflict mitigation initiatives.
Since the UNLocK early warning system was
first established in Nigeria in 2007, over 766
incident reports (categorized by indicator and
by state) have been entered into the
database. The data generated by the
participants has been saved on a password-
protected website, which is accessible to
participants for their own analysis and for the
corroboration of details to ensure accuracy.
Indicators
Economy
Demographic Pressures
Human Flight/Brain Drain
Refugees or Displaced Persons
Group Grievance
Uneven Development Legitimacy of the State
Public Services
Human Rights
Security Apparatus
Factionalized Elites
External Intervention
The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought include social, economic, and political/military pressures on the state:
Social Economic Political/Military
5 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
UNLocK Nigeria
Methodology
A Focus on Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta
and Kaduna States
This report focuses on the Akwa Ibom, Rivers,
Delta, and Kaduna states between the
months of October 2011 and April 2012.
Reports from Akwa Ibom mostly dealt with
election irregularities and the intimidation of
political opposition during the gubernatorial
election. Reports from Rivers State related to
abductions, police corruption and sexual
violence. Reports from Delta State
pertained mainly to robbery and violent
crime. The majority of reports from Kaduna
State related to non-state armed militias.
Pages 10-13 provide a breakdown of the
data from those four states.
Reported Demographic Pressures
Nigerian law grants the Governors of
each State significant control over land
administration, which has contributed
to several conflicts between local inhabitants
and government officials. Incidents have
included cases where the state has claimed
farmland for large-scale development
projects.
• In Rivers State, A report logged in February
2012 highlighted the ongoing conflict
between the Ogoni In Khana LGA and the
Rivers State government, which is
attempting to establish a banana
plantation run by a Mexican firm, Union De
Iniciativa S.A De C.V.
• A similar issue is faced by the Omunobo
community in Rivers State, as their land
has reportedly been compulsorily acquired
by the state for the construction of a
highway linking Port Harcourt to the
international airport nearby.
• Illegal logging by state officials in the
same region has reportedly threatened
residents’ livelihoods by destroying many
of the area’s mangrove forests.
Apart from competition over land, other
demographic pressures reported during this
period included flooding and environmental
degradation.
Analysis
Select Indicators
Reported Group Grievance
Nigeria is culturally rich with a diverse
population from many ethnic and
religious backgrounds. In a context
where there is competition for resources and
influence, there has sometimes been tension
and grievance along group lines. The 1999
constitution established the Federal
Character Commission, an institution
regulating the distribution of “indigeneship
certificates”, the possession of which can
determine, among other things, one’s ability
to vote and to attend school in the area. Oil
extraction, in conjunction with high
unemployment rates, endemic poverty, and
the proliferation of small arms, has
exacerbated the complex social tensions
around identity and indigeneity, contributing
to a number of conflicts across the country.
• In Akwa Ibom State, local youth led a
protest against an oil company’s
employment of non-indigenes over
natives, disrupting production.
• Conflict over indigeneity again erupted in
the same region when an unknown
gunman killed one man and wounded
several others due to a dispute over land.
• Tensions between the Muslim North and
the Christian South also increase the risk of
conflict onset. In January 2012, local
youths in the Delta State’s Ughelli North
LGA committed several crimes directed at
Northerners, including cattle rustling and
assault. A similar incident was reported in
Rivers during the previous time period.
The Islamist militant group, Boko Haram, has
also targeted Christians as part of its
bombing campaign, as in April 2012, when a
suicide bomber allegedly affiliated with the
group attempted to destroy a local church in
Kaduna.
Nigeria
6 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
Nigeria
7
32
Nigeria
Akwa Ibom Bayelsa
Akwa Ibom Rivers
Delta
Kaduna
Reported Pressures on State Legitimacy
State legitimacy was the second most
reported indicator for this period.
Election irregularities were reported
in Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa, as were the arrest
of protestors and police corruption.
Election Irregularities in the Gubernatorial
Government Elections:
Multiple reports in Akwa Ibom related to bias
against female local election candidates.
Party chiefs and community elders reportedly
disqualified candidates based on their
gender. Other reports alleged intimidation
against the supporters of female candidates.
Protests:
• In Delta, workers at the Delta State Oil
Producing Areas Development Commission
were reportedly unable to enter the
building for two days when demonstrators
seized control of the premises. The
demonstrators were reportedly protesting
the alleged misappropriation of federal
funding that was intended for the purchase
of wheelchairs and crutches for the
disabled.
• In Abia, women protesters were reportedly
arrested after peacefully demonstrating
against the rape of a university student.
• In January, the government’s decision to
eliminate federal fuel subsidies resulted in
widespread protests across the country. In
Rivers, demonstrators took to the streets
for ten days to protest the removal of the
subsidies.
Corruption:
• There were numerous reports of
corruption, particularly relating to local
police forces. In Rivers, police officers
reportedly stopped cars and taxi drivers in
order to demand bribes. On several
occasions, when drivers refused to comply,
their keys were taken and they were badly
beaten. Passengers in taxicabs and buses
whose drivers refused to pay were forced
to disembark.
• In Rivers, it was reported that charges
against a man accused of raping a young
girl were dropped after the alleged
perpetrator bribed the police.
Analysis: Select Indicators
7 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
Nigeria
7
Abia
Akwa Ibom Bayelsa
Delta Imo
Rivers
Reported Human Rights Violations
Most reports in this indicator
pertained to child abuse. Other issues
included kidnapping, especially for
ransom, and sexual violence.
• In Bayelsa State, there were several cases
of violent abuse against children, some of
which resulted in the child’s death. In one
instance, a young girl was taken to a local
children’s shelter after she was severely
beaten by her father. Numerous reports of
rape were also filed, many of which
resulted in the victim contracting HIV/
AIDS.
• Several women were reportedly gang
raped by gang members and criminals. In
Rivers, four teenagers were arrested for
breaking into homes and raping women. A
young woman in Rivers State died after a
group of men broke into her house and
sexually assaulted her.
• Kidnapping for ransom was reported in
several states (see Security Apparatus).
Nigeria
8 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
19
Reported Factionalized Elites
All reports of Factionalized Elites
during this period dealt with
intimidation of the political
opposition during the run-up to the Bayelsa
local elections.
• One candidate was severely wounded and
his family killed by cult groups. Another
candidate was reportedly arrested by
police on false charges, and subsequently
shot and killed in prison. A further three
candidates were reportedly suspended
over alleged misconduct one day prior to
the launch of their political campaigns.
• Clashes broke out in Bayelsa between two
groups supporting opposing candidates.
Five people were reportedly killed in the
incident.
Nigeria
Analysis: Select Indicators
Abia
Akwa Ibom Bayelsa
Imo
Rivers
Bayelsa
Reported Pressures on Security Apparatus
The presence of Non-State Armed
Groups undermined security in
Nigeria during this time period,
particularly cult groups and organized crime,
political thugs, and militants. There were also
reports that public security officials
sometimes abused their power. Below is a
graph showing the trend in UNLocK reports of
abductions over the last two years. Indeed,
abductions are a major problem in the Niger
Delta. According to police reports, in 2011
there were over 350 cases in Delta State
alone.
• In Bayelsa State, cult violence led to a
number of deaths. Cult violence has
reportedly escalated due to the ease with
which cult members, usually students, can
gather arms. One participant reported that
a student used his money for school fees
to purchase arms. Cult violence sometimes
spills over into nearby towns. After a
shooting battle between two cult groups in
Yenagoa, for instance, violence spread to
nearby towns.
• In Abia State, a group of thugs, suspected
to be loyalists of the ruling PDP, reportedly
stormed the state headquarters of the
Progressive Peoples Alliance during a party
secretariat meeting. Party faithfuls were
abducted and property was looted and
damaged. Policemen responsible for
protecting the secretariat had reportedly
left the building just before the attack
occurred.
• Also in Abia State, the Anti-Terrorist Squad
stationed at the council secretariat in
Agboko was accused of harassing local
government employees.
• The leader of a cult gang was reportedly
shot dead by a suspected rival gang in
Delta. It was reported that the man was
shot at close range, in his chest, about five
times. The shooters escaped in a vehicle.
• The militant group, Boko Haram, terrorized
residents in the North. On Sardwana Road
in Kaduna, members of the group
attempted to bomb a church by packing
the car they were driving with explosives.
The car was turned away by church
security and police officers, but exploded
several kilometers down the road, killing
40 people.
• A bomb blast was also reported in a
Kaduna motor park, killing a further 50
people.
• In Akwa Ibom, a kidnapping ring was
discovered, run by a serving counsellor
from Ibiono. The ring was linked to a
number of incidents, including the
kidnapping of another counsellor from the
same LGA. After the counsellor was
arrested, members of his gang reportedly
killed the police informant.
• There were multiple kidnappings reported
in Rivers. Gunmen abducted the elderly
mother of a State Assembly leader, and
demanded a twenty million dollar ransom
for her release. Kidnappers in Abia
abducted a two year old boy for ransom;
when confronted, the kidnappers
abandoned the boy in a forest where he
was later discovered by locals.
• A reported ringleader of kidnappings in
Delta State, the chairman of the Anti-
Kidnapping Task Force, has been arrested
Analysis: Select Indicators
9 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
Nigeria
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2011
Reported Abductions 2010-2011
Predominantly Rivers State
Predominantly Akwa Ibom
Crisis in Abia
Abia
Akwa Ibom Bayelsa
Delta
Kaduna
Rivers
Reported Pressures on Public Services
One of the most important public
services provided by the state is
ensuring a functional and legitimate police
force for promoting peace, protecting human
security and ensuring respect for human
rights and the rule of law. This is especially
important in post-conflict or fragile states,
when a state is vulnerable to lapsing into
conflict. In Nigeria, there is a lack of public
trust and confidence in the police force.
Reports of police corruption and abuse
included the following:
• In Rivers State, police reportedly went on a
shooting rampage after shooting and
killing a suspected thief. The police started
to shoot at random when on-lookers
protested the thief’s killing.
• In Kaduna State, a popular entertainer was
reportedly shot and killed by a policeman.
The shooting reportedly occurred after the
man went to his community leader’s home
to clear his name in relation to a case of
theft. While he waited to speak to the
community leader, four policemen arrived
in a vehicle. One of the officers shot him in
the stomach. At the time the incident was
reported, the case was before the Federal
High Court.
• Also in Kaduna State, a policeman
reportedly shot a man in the stomach
without due cause.
• In Bayelsa State, a twenty-year old man
was reportedly shot and killed by police
officers at a check point after refusing the
pay a bribe. The three officers were
subsequently arrested.
• In Lagos State, a policeman stopped a bus
driver who was in the process of pulling
over to pick up passengers. With his gun,
the officer broke the bus’ side mirror and
ordered passengers off the bus. Another
police officer managed to control the
situation.
Analysis: Select Indicators
10 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
Nigeria
Bayelsa
Kaduna
Lagos
Rivers
Delta
Analysis
The States
11 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
Nigeria
Abia
Akwa Ibom Bayelsa
Delta
Kaduna
Lagos
Rivers
Rivers is located in the South-South
region, between Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa.
Primarily due to oil, Rivers boasts one of
Nigeria’s largest state economies, yet the
benefits of this rarely trickle down to
citizens. With 41 reports, Rivers had the
largest number of reports during this period.
Within Rivers State, the Local Government
Area with the most reported incidents was
Port Harcourt with 18 reports, followed by
Ikwerre with 6 reports, Obio/Akpor, Ahoada
East, Khana, Ogba/Egbma/Ndoni with 2
reports, and Gokana and Eleme with 1 report
respectively.
Port Harcourt: Police corruption, robbery and
human flight were reported.
• There were several cases of police officers
stopping cars and demanding bribes.
• Two bank robberies were reported in
which several people were killed.
• Skilled workers are reportedly leaving Port
Harcourt because of the lack of career
opportunities.
Ikwerre: There were reports of violent crime
and corruption, among other issues.
• A mentally disabled man was beaten and
killed by crowd of people at an
intersection after he stood in the middle of
the road.
• A family of four, including a pregnant
woman, were burned to death in a house
fire after a tanker exploded near their
home.
• There were reports of a governor forcefully
taking land without compensating land
owners.
Obio/Akpor: Robbery, violent crime and child
abuse were reported.
• Armed robbers killed three policemen
after stealing money from a vehicle they
had stopped.
Rivers
Rivers State
20
0
40
Kwara
Lagos
Abia
Akwa Ib
om Bayelsa
Rivers
Kaduna
Delta
Reports by State for the Reporting Period
Obio/ Akpor
Port Harcourt
Ikwerre
Khana Gokana
Ahoad
a Ea
st
Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni
Akwa Ibom State had the second most
reports for this period with 17 incident
reports. Many of these reports relate to the
child abuse, kidnappings and corruption
surrounding local elections. The largest
number of incident reports came from the
capital of Akwa Ibom, Uyo, which had 5
reports, followed by Etinan, Esit Eket and Ikot
Ekpene with 2 reports, and Ikot Abasi, Ibeno
and Udung Uko with 1 report, respectively.
Uyo: Most the reports concerned robbery,
kidnappings and child abuse.
• Six men broke into a house and robbed it,
threatening to rape the occupants.
• A senior council chair was kidnapped and
only released after a ransom was paid.
Etinan: Child abuse and corruption were
reported.
• A ten year old boy was found living on his
own after he was abandoned by his
parents. He had been living alone for five
years.
• An aspiring councillor reported that her
supporters were chased from polling
booths and votes were faked to ensure she
lost the primary round.
Esit Eket: Protests and land disputes were
reported.
• A group of women blocked access to a gas
company in protest of the negative effect
the company had on their livelihoods.
• Two gunman shot and wounded several
people during a land dispute between two
communities.
Ikot Ekpene: There were reports concerning
corruption surrounding the local elections.
One candidate reportedly won the primaries
because of her relationship with Akwa Ibom’s
first lady. Another female candidate reported
foul play on behalf of the community elders
and chiefs.
Ibeno: Gunmen reportedly attacked a Mobil
oil production site.
Udung Uko: There was a report detailing an
incident in which a women gained the
majority of the votes in a local election, but
another candidate was announced the
winner.
Akwa Ibom State
Analysis: State-by-State
12 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
Akwa Ibom
• A five year old was reportedly flogged to
death by her stepmother.
Khana: There were reports of protests and
violent crime.
• The Ogani women in Khana protested
against the government’s forceful
acquisition of their land.
Ahoada East: Human flight and child abuse
was reported.
• A large number of young people are
leaving their communities to wealthier
areas.
• A 13 year-old girl was reportedly raped by
a man who had escaped from prison.
Gokana and Eleme: Organized crime and
child abuse was reported.
• A councilor reportedly paid a group of
young boys to beat a carpenter to death.
He has since been arrested.
• A community chief was arrested for raping
a ten year-old girl. He was released after
reportedly bribing police.
Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni: The mother of a State
Assembly member was abducted.
Uyo
Etinan
Esit Eket
Ikot Ekpene
Ibeno
Udung Uko
13 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
Delta is located in the South-South
region of Nigeria, next to Edo and Rivers
States. Delta is the second major oil
producing state after Rivers, and boasts many
other natural resources. Many of the reports
relate to cult violence and other violent
crime. There were 13 reports for Delta for
this period. The Local Government Areas with
the most reports were Warri South, with 6
reports, followed by Oshimilli with 3 reports,
and Ughelli North and Uvwie with 1 report
each.
Warri South: There were reports concerning
robbery and violent crime, especially
between cult gangs.
• A community youth leader, in an attack
against a cult group, reportedly shot and
killed 14 people. Many of those who were
killed were innocent spectators, including
a 12 year-old girl. The shooter was freed
from prison after he bribed a policeman.
• A cult leader was shot dead by an opposing
cult in Warri South.
• Robbery incidents have reportedly
increased.
• The Commissioner of Health was accused
of hitting a female nurse, which led to a
nurses’ strike.
Oshimili South: An explosion was reported in
an urban area. A group of people reportedly
used dynamite to blow up the base of a cell
tower.
Ughelli North: There were reports of cattle
rustling. The same youths involved in this
were also accused of stopping cars for bribes.
Uvwie: Tension was reported within the
Ekpan Development Committee, a committee
responsible for the economic and
development affairs of the community. The
leaders reportedly tried to amend the
community constitution without following
the correct process, causing concern among
community elites.
Delta
Delta State
Analysis: State-by-State
Warri South
Oshimili South
Ughelli North
Uvwie
Akwa Ibom PDP Primary Kaduna Bomb
Rainy Season Bayelsa Gubernatorial Elections Occupy Nigeria Protests
Bayelsa PDP Gubernatorial Primaries
14 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
Rivers: Several policemen reportedly killed by armed
robbers in an attack on a bullion van.
Delta: A former CPP governorship candidate was arrested,
shot, and left for dead at a police station.
Bayelsa: Five people were killed during cult clashes. Residents alleged the incident could be related to the upcoming gubernatorial election.
Abia: Several women
were arrested by police
after peacefully protest-
ing the rape of a student
at the state university.
October November December
Delta: Protesters reportedly locked
workers out of the Delta State Oil
Producing Area Development
Commission for two days.
Akwa Ibom: Semi-skilled workers of oil/gas companies protested the lack of local employment.
Timeline: 2011
Rivers: Multiple armed robberies reportedly left several people dead.
Rivers: Guns were report-edly fired between Fulani herdsmen and community members in Ubima.
Kaduna: A bomb was set off by Boko Haram killing over fifty people.
Timeline: 2012 January February March April
Delta: Cult violence reported.
Rivers: Multiple cases of sexual violence and child abuse reported.
Lagos: A flood left many families homeless and without property. Rivers: There is a reported
increase of police extorting money from taxi drivers.
Rivers: The Nigerian govern-
ment removed the fuel subsidy
leading to ten days of protests.
Bayelsa: A surge in cult vio-
lence kills several, particularly
in Amassoma. Akwa Ibom: Female coun-cillorship aspirants re-ported foul play in the PDP primaries in Uruan, Ikot Ekpene, and Ikot Abasi.
Bayelsa: Four people killed in cult violence days prior to the primaries.
Akwa Ibom: Women in Edo community of Esit Eket blocked the access road to a gas processing facility
Abia: The National Union of Local Government Employ-ees (NULGE) complained of harassment from the Anti-Terror Squad.
Akwa Ibom: Gunmen
reportedly attacked a
Mobile vessel.
Rivers: Mother of state assembly deputy majority leader abducted.
Delta: Violence reported
between Fulani nomads and
community members.
Delta: Increased numbers of abductions reported. Head of anti-kidnapping squad arrested in conjunc-tion with the surge in abductions.
UNLocK Nigeria
Timeline
UNLocK Nigeria
Conclusion
Looking Ahead
From the point of view of some
observers, the threat posed by insecurity in
Nigeria is much reduced. The Amnesty
Program in the Niger Delta has brought down
attacks on oil facilities. And for all the horror
posed by Boko Haram in the North, those
militants have not been able to interrupt
business to a degree that puts much pressure
on the state.
But from the point of view of human security,
the threat of violence continues unabated.
Unfortunately, the government does not have
as much incentive to deal with human
security as it does threats against the state.
When the government’s budget is not
dependent on a broad tax base, (oil and gas
make up 80 percent of government revenue)
there is less accountability with respect to
the concerns of the average person.
In the Niger Delta, militants are no longer
attacking state assets. However, youth are
still being recruited into cult groups at an
alarming rate, particularly in Delta, Rivers,
and Bayelsa states. These cult groups serve
as a gateway into worse forms of criminality
including abductions, murders, bank
robberies, political thuggery, and intra-
communal violence.
According to police reports, in 2011 there
were over 350 cases of abduction in Delta
State alone. Incidents reported by the
UNLocK network in Nigeria speak to
continued conflict between and among
communities. Within communities, there is
violence between the youth and the elders.
Youth believe their elders have been co-
opted by the oil companies. The elders
believe the youth are trouble-makers out to
undermine traditional values and leadership.
Between communities, there is violence over
resources and land, often exacerbated by the
presence of oil fields, which raise the stakes
on these disputes. Cult groups fight with one
another. Violence breaks out between the
public security forces and criminal groups.
In the midst of all of this, Nigerian men,
women, and children suffer. Conflict causes
prices to rise and incomes to fall. Traditional
livelihoods are less profitable than before.
People live in fear. Government
accountability is low. Traditional governance
structures lack the authority and legitimacy
to deal with these issues.
A relatively free and fair presidential election
in 2011 did not solve these problems. There
are still problems of accountability, and deep
problems of human insecurity. As highlighted
in this report, between October 2011 and
April 2012, there were incidents of election
irregularities and violence at the
gubernatorial levels in Akwa Ibom and
Bayelsa. Frequently reported incidents
included political intimidation and vote
rigging. There were a number of reports
relating to bad policing, including police
brutality and corruption. Nigeria remains one
of the most unequal countries in the world.
The population continues to live in poverty,
despite the vast amounts of oil resources in
the Niger Delta region. Public services are
dismal.
Boko Haram has exacerbated tension
between Muslims and Christians, northerners
and southerners. In the past year, there have
even been a few reports of violence against
northerners in Rivers and Delta states, as
these national-level tensions have escalated.
Such violence against northerners in the
South-South is unusual and must be watched
closely.
Perhaps the solution is building social
capital among average Nigerians so that
spoilers and special interests cannot hijack
the agenda of the state. Civil society must be
energized and empowered so their voices are
heard.
15 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
About
The Fund for Peace
Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
Transnational Threats
Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security
The Fund for Peace is an
independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-
profit research and educational organization
that works to prevent violent conflict and
promote sustainable security.
We promote sustainable security through
research, training and education, engagement
of civil society, building bridges across
diverse sectors, and developing innovative
technologies and tools for policy makers.
A leader in the conflict assessment and early
warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on
the problems of weak and failing states. Our
objective is to create practical tools and
approaches for conflict mitigation that are
useful to decision-makers.
The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach
to the issues stemming from weak and failing
states. We work at both the grassroots level
with civil society actors and at policy levels
with key decision makers. We have worked in
over 50 countries with a wide range of
partners in all sectors: governments,
international organizations, the military,
nongovernmental organizations, academics,
journalists, civil society networks, and the
private sector.
The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of
initiatives focused on our central objective:
to promote sustainable security and the
ability of a state to solve its own problems
peacefully without an external military or
administrative presence. Our programs fall
into three primary thematic areas:
• Conflict Early Warning and Assessment;
• Transnational Threats; and
• Sustainable Development, Sustainable
Security.
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55th Anniversary 1957-2012
16 The Fund for Peace www.fundforpeace.org
www.fundforpeace.org
The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
FFP : CUNGR1212