New Zealand Tourism Demand Drivers

1

Tourism vs. leisure consumption

Tourism Demand

Shifting markets

A more knowledgeable world

Our identity and humanity

Distance and uncertainty of connectivity

New patterns of populationstructures

Wealth and elasticity

Consumer values: Fluid and simple A world of science and

technology

Bring it on! Climate change


Improving Literacy

Population aged 15 years and overIlliteracy rate

(%)Illiterate population

(000 000)

MF M F MF M F

WORLD

1995 22.4 16.4 28.5 872 319 553

2000 20.3 14.8 25.8 862 313 549

2005 18.3 13.3 23.3 847 307 540

2010 16.5 12.0 21.0 824 299 525

2015 15.0 11.0 19.0 799 292 507

Key: East Asia & pacific (EAP), Europe & Central Asia (ECA),Latin America & Caribbean (LAC), Middle East & North Africa (MNA), South Asia (SAS), Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), WORLD (WLD)

In 1985, 8.5% of young adults were enrolled in tertiary education. By

2007 this had increased to 25.5%!

Globally, ¼ of tertiary age students are enrolled. Europe and Central Asia is

currently the only region with over 50% of youth enrolled in tertiary education.


By the end of 2007 almost 1 out of 2 people had a mobile phone.

Europe also reached over

100% Penetration.


4

Florida attracts millions of people

annually for its popular beaches,

coastlines and outdoor

activities.

The IPCC estimates a 4.95

degree increase in average summer

temperatures which could

threaten the states coastlines.

Scientists predict by 2100, Florida’s sea levels would

have risen by 18-20 inches putting

wildlife, hotels and houses in danger.

Florida

“Tourists prefer countries with a sunny yet mild climate and shun climates that are too hot or too cold” (Bigano et al, 2006).

Florida: Sector Costs 2025 2050 2075 2100

Tourism Impact $9 B $40 B $88 B $167 B

Hurricanes $6 B $25 B $54 B $104 B

Electricity $1 B $5 B $10 B $18 B

Real Estate $11 B $23 B $33 B $56

Total $27 B $92 B $184 B $345 B

% of Projected Florida GSP 1.6% 2.8% 3.9% 5.0%

Source: Stanton and Ackerman (2007). B = billion dollars GSP = Gross State Product


5

French Alps

The main reason tourists travel to the French Alps is for its winter sports offerings. The French Alps is considered the number one mountain

destination for winter sports in the world. 77.5% of overnight stays are related to winter sports and there are over 600 ski resorts and 10,000 ski

installations within the Alps.

Climate change is expected to significantly reduce the number of naturally snow-reliable areas in the

French Alps. Snow making technologies are currently being developed to cope with climate

change.

Wealth and elasticity

Trends: Improvements in absolute incomes. E.g. 20 fold plus improvement in incomes for over 3 billion people in India and China alone; An explosion of the middle-classes throughout the world.

NZ. NZ?

Consumer values: Fluid and simple

Consumer values: Fluid and simple

9

Projected Demographics of

Key Markets in 2050.

New patterns of populationstructures

10

CHINANew patterns of populationstructures

11

The New Zealand Tourism Brand

With its “100% Pure” brand, New Zealand created a

powerhouse tourism brand. The nation with the smallest

population among the Top 10, New Zealand is also strong in

other dimensions with Top 10 rankings in Political Freedom,

Environmentalism and Safety. Top 10 visitor rankings in

Authenticity, Friendly Locals, Natural Beauty and Outdoor

Activities & Sports explain why New Zealand is also one of

the most desirable tourist destinations.



What our visitors expect of us (top priorities)

Expectation USA Australia Japan Germany

Holiday Close to nature Expect warm & friendly relationships

Unique outdoor experience (Nature)

Pristine/unspoilt Price Slower pace of life

Walking/Sightseeing/Museums & galleries

Cultural exposure

Food/Wine Safe

Gnoth et al, (1999-2002)

13

Why Tourists Come to New Zealand (1999-

2009).

This graph shows that the main purpose for travelling to New Zealand is for a holiday. Other primary reasons include; VFR, business, conference and education.


14

Future of Oil

This publication outlines three different scenarios surrounding the future of world oil markets. The graphs above highlight the uncertainty

surrounding the future of the oil and energy industry.

Distance and uncertainty of connectivity

15

Future Air Craft Design

In response to worldwide concerns over air quality and climate change NASA has developed a Hybrid Wing

Bodied (HBW) air craft.

This aircraft uses advanced technologies to reduce fuel burn, noise and NOx emissions. The aircraft has high-lift wings and a wide air-foil shaped body to reduce drag and fuel depletion. This aircraft is expected to be widely used in 2020. This aircraft will initially be used for mainly for cargo. However, commercial airlines are beginning to investigate this aircraft design.

Distance & Uncertainty of Connectivity

16

Moore's Law and Technology Discovery

Gordon Moore, theorised that the number of transistors on a chip should double each

year.

Futurists predict that Moore’s law will lead to a period of technological singularity in

which technological advances occur instantly. It is also suggested that new technology (i.e. Nano-technology) will

replace current integrated-circuit technology. Thus, Moore’s law will hold true

beyond 2020 (Kurzweil, 2005).

By 2014, the continuation of Moore’s law will be threatened. However, IBM is

researching DNA to make the manufacture of future chips economically feasible

(Crothers, 2009).

A world of science and technology

A world of science and technology

Shifting markets

Shifting markets

Rank Country or Area Population

1 India 1,656,553,632

2 China 1,303,723,332

3 United States 439,010,253

4 Indonesia 313,020,847

5 Ethiopia 278,283,137

6 Pakistan 276,428,758

7 Nigeria 264,262,405

8 Brazil 260,692,493

9 Bangladesh 233,587,279

10 Congo (Kinshasa) 189,310,849

Largest Countries and Areas Ranked by Population (2050)


In 2008, approximately 40% (£40.7B) of all UK leisure

expenditure was spent within the home on such things as televisions, computers and

books. 60% (£63.8B) of leisure expenditure is on out of home

activities.

Perhaps as result of the toughening economic

environment there was a clear move towards in-home leisure

spending with that sector growing by 4.4% compared with

just 4.0% for out-of-home leisure. In the previous two

years out-of-home leisure had been the fastest growing sector.


Documents

New Zealand Tourism Demand Drivers