New Zealand ClimateChange Research Institute

International climate change

research & policy processes

Andy ReisingerNew Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre

(AgResearch, Wellington)

Degrees of PossibilityNZCCC Social Science Workshop

6 December 2010

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1) The starting point

2) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: why, what, how, who?

3) Some (very selected) scientific findings andkey social science contributions to IPCC

4) Engagement with IPCC process

5) Personal perspectives on social science challenges and opportunities in New Zealand

Outline

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Concerns about climate change initiated by atmospheric/earth system scientists ...

... taken up by ecologists ...

... taken up by technologists and economists ...

... slowly diffusing into development, disaster management, resilience, sustainability discourses ...

... with increasing considerations of policy design ...

... and almost from day one under the shadow of political, ethical, lobby-group dynamics (only some of this has been subject of serious academic study).

The starting point

Social science is everywhere – but where is it !?

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Climate change is directly linked to socio-economic development, resource management, and global commons.

Thousands of scientific papers are published on these subjects every year. Where and how can governments get Where and how can governments get objective information to help their decision-making?objective information to help their decision-making?

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History of IPCC

set up jointly by UNEP and WMO in 1988, open to all nations part of WMO and UN (last count: 192)

to provide assessments of scientific and technical aspects of climate change, to inform policy choices

global and comprehensive drafting and open peer-review process to reflect wide range of perspectives

output mainly in form of comprehensive reports;also workshops and guidance documents

“policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive”

Careful handling of uncertainty and confidence

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All reports are available in full and for free:

www.ipcc.ch

Some key scientific findings

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Global average temperature

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Recent warming is due to greenhouse gases

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Recent warming is due to greenhouse gases

Combination of volcanic eruptions and solar change would have resulted in small cooling over the last 50 years.

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Recent warming is due to greenhouse gases

Combination of volcanic eruptions and solar change would have resulted in small cooling over the last 50 years.

Models are able to reproduce observed changes only if we include the warming effect of greenhouse gases.

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Projections for the future

Start with scenarios for future emissions – (internally consistent sets of assumptions about socio-economic change, energy and technology)

Use models simulating physical and chemical processes, and validated against past changes, to estimate future change

Compare models from different groups to assess model uncertainties

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Future warming and historical context

Different Northern Hemisphere temperature records for the last 1300 years

Thermometer measurements

High, medium and lowgreenhouse gas

scenarios forthe future

Even a low ‘business as usual’ scenario would lead to rapid global warming and temperatures greater than at any time during human civilisation.

Deg

rees

o C

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But no one lives at the global average

Medium (A1B) scenario (2090-2099): Global mean warming 2.8oC;Much of land area warms by ~3.5oC. Arctic warms by ~6oC.

Different people are affected and will respond differently.

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Implications and response options

Climate change impacts on sectors/regions

Adaptation options, costs, effectiveness, limits• Dependence on socio-economic development• Governance, institutional issues

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions:• Technical options• Costs• Policies• International collaboration

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Social science inputs to date

Socio-economic drivers of GHG emissions

Integration of adaptation into development

Socio-economic determinants of vulnerability to climate change impacts

(some) behavioural and ecological economics applied to mitigation cost analysis

Policy design and effectiveness of technology diffusion and learning-by-doing cycles

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IPCC AR5 – social science entry points

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• IPCC 5th Assessment Report underwayChapter outlines and authors: www.ipcc.ch

• Ways of contributing: writing and publishing papers making IPCC authors aware of relevant publications/work participate in expert review process act as contributing author if requested

• Cut-off dates for literature: March 2013 for WG I (physical science) July 2013 for WG II (impacts/adaptation) August 2013 for WGIII (mitigation)

Engagement with IPCC process

address policy-relevant questionsthat can inform but don’t prescribe decision-making and that don’t assume or prescribe value-systems

inter- (multi-, trans-) disciplinary collaborationsthat address real-world problems

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Key social science needs

• Socio-economic development scenarios(drivers of greenhouse gas emissions; baseline for emissions reductions; potential impacts/vulnerability) Measures/perceptions of well-being (beyond GDP) drivers of consumption/growth regional/local development scenarios links between local and global scenarios

• Climate change adaptation Governance and policy design incl. long timescales Interaction with competing development goals Dealing with rapid, dynamic changes in social fabric

(demographics, technology, environment)

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Key social science needs• Real-world mitigation potential

Bridging the gap from economic to market potential Dynamics of technology diffusion and deployment Drivers, barriers and limits for behavioural change Ecological/behavioural economics

• Psychology of risk, individual/collective responses perception of risk and timeframes re-action and pro-action relating to disasters barriers and motivations for indiv./collective action communication of risk, cost and benefit political economy of climate change

• Serious, academic analysis of ethical dimensionsand their implications and relevance for policy

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Managing the do-it-yourself social scientists

Assumptions, beliefs and value systems

The tyranny of number and universality

Cross-cutting issues relative to outcomes

The challenge of multi-discipline collaborations

Connecting with the policy environment, and the need to demonstrate real, tangible (quantified! here we go again) value from including social science findings in decision-making processes

Challenges and opportunities