NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of … · 2020-05-05 · NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 7 People of Color, Immigrants On the Frontlines

NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 1


Comptroller's FY21 Executive Budget

Presentation



Steepest Recession in Postwar History

-2.4%-3.0% -3.1%

-2.5%

-4.0%

-7.9%

Korean War1954 1957

Oil Shock1974

"Volcker" Recession1982

Great Recession2009

COVID-192020

Percent Change in U.S. Gross Domestic Product


Unemployment Rate Highest in Postwar History

8.5%10.1%

3.8%

22.0%

9/11 Great Recession Pre-COVID This Quarter

NYC Quarterly Unemployment Rate

We will lose more than900,000jobs this quarter.


Job Losses By Sector

600 2,900

8,400 10,200

13,600 25,700 26,400 27,400 27,900

34,700 39,300

48,900 54,400

63,200 159,700

178,000 184,300

UtilitiesManagement of Companies and Enterprises

InformationEducational Services

Financial ActivitiesTransportation and Warehousing

Real EstateManufacturing

Wholesale TradeAdministrative Services

Other ServicesArts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesConstruction

Health Care and Social AssistanceRetail Trade

Accommodation and Food Services


People of Color, Immigrants On the Frontlines

• 70% are people of color• 43% are immigrants• 52% are women• Average wage: $38,924

SOURCE: American Community Survey, for occupations in the following groups: EAT, ENT, PRS, SAL


Deep but “V”-shaped Recovery?

-1,000 K

-800 K

-600 K

-400 K

-200 K

0 K

200 K

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Number of Quarters to Return to Pre-Recession Employment

9/11217,000 jobs lost

COVID-19906,000 jobs lost

Great Recession133,000 jobs lost


Testing is Key


What Shape Will Recovery Take?

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26


“V”



0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26


“U”



0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26


“W”


The Outlook: Tremendous Uncertainties

Joshua Lombard / Shutterstock.com


The Executive Budget


The January Preliminary Budget

$95.4 $95.3

$97.6

$100.1

$101.8

$95.4 $95.3

$100.1

$102.8

$104.5

$88 B

$90 B

$92 B

$94 B

$96 B

$98 B

$100 B

$102 B

$104 B

$106 B

FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24

Expenditures

Revenues

$2.7

$2.7

$2.5


The Executive Budget Gap

FY 2020 FY 2021 CombinedTax Revenues $2.2 B $5.2 B $7.4 BNon-Tax Revenues $232 M $227 M $459 MState Budget Impact $34 M $763 M $797 MAll Other Changes, Net $55 M -$43 M $12 MTOTAL $2.6 B $6.1 B $8.7 B


Closing the Gap

TOTAL$8.7 B


Closing the Gap

Federal Aid$1.99 B

TOTAL$8.7 B

23%


Closing the Gap

Federal Aid$1.99 B

PEG Program$2.66 B

TOTAL$8.7 B

23%

31%


Closing the Gap

Federal Aid$1.99 B

PEG Program$2.66 B

Reserves$4.03 B

TOTAL$8.7 B

23%

31%

46%



Federal Aid: Some Help, But Not Enough

$498 M $444 M

$250 M

$800 M

$600 M

FY 2020 FY 2021

CARES Act/FEMACoronavirus Relief FundFEMA ReimbursementEnhanced FMAP

$2.15 B

$444 M


We Need Agencies to SAVE

$0 M

$200 M

$400 M

$600 M

$800 M

$1,000 M

$1,200 M

$1,400 M

$1,600 M

FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24

Recurring Efficiencies and Reductions

Accruals, Reestimates & Funding Shifts



$0 M

$200 M

$400 M

$600 M

$800 M

$1,000 M

$1,200 M

$1,400 M

$1,600 M

FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24

COVID-Related Program Suspensions & Delays





1.6%1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

$0 M

$200 M

$400 M

$600 M

$800 M

$1,000 M

$1,200 M

$1,400 M

$1,600 M

FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24

COVID-Related Program Suspensions & Delays





$296 M

$903 M $921 M $926 M

$0 M

$200 M

$400 M

$600 M

$800 M

$1,000 M

$1,200 M

$1,400 M

$1,600 M

FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24

4% Target

4% recurring savings target

would yield another

$1 billion annually


Consistent effort to bring us to minimum

12% cushion would have meant an additional$1.2 billionavailable this year

A Consistent Savings Plan Would Have Paid Off

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Budget Cushion; January Plan Budget Cushion at 12%

Perc

ent o

f Adj

uste

d Ex

pend

iture

s

An additional $1.2 billion


Reserves Are Shrinking

$0.0 B

$1.0 B

$2.0 B

$3.0 B

$4.0 B

$5.0 B

$6.0 B

$7.0 B

FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024

Retiree Health Benefit Trust

Contingency Reserves$6.1 B

$3.8 B$3.3 B

$1.25 B $1.25 B

$100 M


The April Executive Budget

$97.4

$89.3

$94.4

$97.4$98.8

$97.5

$89.3

$99.4

$102.0$103.7

$85 B

$90 B

$95 B

$100 B

$105 B

$110 B

FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24

Expenditures

Revenues$4.9

$4.5

$5.0


New Developments: State Budget Update

$13 billion budget gap

$8.2 billion in local aid cuts

Potentially $3+ billion in cuts to New York City

$2 billion in education cuts?


Each Recession is Unique …

9/11(FYs 2002-04)

Great Recession(FYs 2009-12)

COVID-19(FY 2020 - ?)

• 217,000 jobs lost6 years to recover

• 133,000 jobs lost3 years to recover

• 900,000 jobs lostDuration?

• Budget cushion: 3% of spending



• Spending cuts;Tax increases;Borrowing

• Spending cuts;Tax increases

Federal assistance


We Need Federal ACTION


Montana

Cases Coronavirus Relief Funding per case

457 $2,735,230

Funding Must be Allocated Based on Need

New York City

Cases Coronavirus Relief Funding per case

170,534 $8,530


New York’s Taxes Are Paying for COVID Response Nationally

State Balance of Payments

New York -$35.6 B

New Jersey -$21.3 B

Massachusetts -$16.1 B

Connecticut -$14.4 B

Montana $4.19 B

Kentucky $40.7 B

Florida $45.9 BSOURCE: SUNY Rockefeller Institute of Government


1970s 9/11 Superstorm Sandy

Anthony Correia / Shutterstock.com Brian Derr / Shutterstock.comNew York Daily News


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NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of … · 2020-05-05 · NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 7 People of Color, Immigrants On the Frontlines