New EHES WORKING PAPERS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY NO 131ehes.org/EHES_131.pdf · 2018. 5. 15. · 5 Dowrick and Akmal (2005) found, however, that inequality increased slightly between 1980

European

Historical

Economics

Society

EHES WORKING PAPERS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY | NO. 131

Well-being Inequality in the Long Run

Leandro Prados de la Escosura

Universidad Carlos III, Groningen, and CEPR

MAY 2018

EHES Working Paper | No. 131|May 2018

Well-being Inequality in the Long Run1

Leandro Prados de la Escosura*

Universidad Carlos III, Groningen, and CEPR

Abstract

This paper provides a long-run view of well-being inequality at world scale based on a new historical

dataset. Trends in social dimensions alter the view on inequality derived from per capita GDP. While in

terms of income, inequality increased until the third quarter of the twentieth century; in terms of well-

being, inequality fell steadily since World War I. The spread of mass primary education and the health

transitions were its main drivers. The gap between the West and the Rest explains only partially the

evolution of well-being inequality, as the dispersion within the developing regions has increasingly

determined its evolution.

JEL classification: I00, N30, O15, O50

Keywords: Well-being, Inequality, Life Expectancy, Health Transition, Education, per capita GDP.

1 I gratefully acknowledge comments by participants at the 4th World Bank-Banco de España Policy Conference (Madrid), Economic History

Society Conference (Cambridge), the GGDC 25th Anniversary Conference (Groningen), the World Congress of Cliometrics (Strasbourg), and

seminars at Bar-Ilan (Tel Aviv), NYUAD (Abu Dhabi), Research School of Economics, ANU (Canberra), and Higher School of Economics

(Moscow). A research grant from Fundación Rafael del Pino is acknowledged.

* Universidad Carlos III, Department of Social Sciences, Madrid, 135, 28903 Getafe (Madrid), Spain [email protected].

Notice

The material presented in the EHES Working Paper Series is property of the author(s) and should be quoted as such.

The views expressed in this Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the EHES or

its members

mailto:[email protected]

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Introduction

Inthelastoneandahalfcenturies,substantialgainsacrosstheboardare

observedformainwell-beingdimensions(includingpercapitaGDP,health,education,

politicalvoice,civilliberties,andpersonalsecurity)(Maddison,2006;Bourguignonand

Morrisson,2002;MorrissonandMurtin,2009;PradosdelaEscosura,2015;Pinker,

2018).Howhavethesegainsbeendistributed?Doinequalitytrendsinwell-being

dimensionsconcur?DidthegapbetweentheWestandtheRestoftheworldexplain

well-beinginequality?

Thispaperapproacheslong-runwell-beinginequalityfromamultidimensional

perspectiveinspiredbythecapabilitiesapproach.2Thecapabilitiesapproachmakes

well-beingdependentonacombinationoffunctionings(orachievements)and

capabilities(theabilitytochooseamongalternativebundlesoffunctionings)3.Thus,

well-beingdifferencesacrosscountrieswillbeassessedonabroadbasisthatincludes

notonlytheeconomicdimension(realpercapitaincome),butalsohealth(life

expectancyatbirth)andeducation(literacyandgrossenrolmentratesandyearsof

schooling)dimensions.Differencesinhumandevelopment,'aprocessofenlarging

people’schoices'(UNDP,1990),whichencompassesenjoyingahealthylife,acquiring

knowledge,andachievingadecentstandardofliving,willbealsoaddressed.

Thedatabasecomprisesalargegroupofcountriesrangingbetween96and164

andrepresentingover90percentoftheworldpopulation.Thetimespanconsidered

coversfromthefirstglobalization,thebeginningsofmassprimaryeducation,andthe

eveoftheepidemiologicaltransitiontothepresent,underanotherphaseof

globalization,withtertiaryeducationspreadingatworldscale,andanewhealth

transitionunderway.

Acaveatisneeded.Inthepresentstateoftheart,itisnotpossibletoderive

measuresofwithin-countryinequalityfortheselectedwell-beingdimensionsover

2Alternativesarethewelfareeconomicsapproachwhichvaluesvariousdimensionsofqualityoflife,includinghealth,education,environment,etc.inmonetaryterms(NordhausandTobin,1972;Beckeretal.,2005;JonesandKlenow,2016;GallardoAlbarrán,2017)andtheSubjectiveWell-Being(SWB)approach,whichplaceslifesatisfactionatitscentre(Easterlin,1974,KahnemanandDeaton,2010;VeenhovenandVengust,2013).3Thispaperisonlyinspiredonthecapabilitiesapproachbecause,sofar,Ihavefocusedonachievementsonly.SeeIvanovandPeleah(2010).

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suchalargesampleandlongtimespan.Thediscussionwilladdress,then,inter-

nationalinequality,inwhichnationalaveragesareemployed.

Thepaperisorganizedasfollows.InsectionIIanoverviewoftheempirical

literatureonmultidimensionalinternationalinequalityprovideshypothesestobe

exploredfromalongrunperspective.SectionIIIpresentsnewwell-beingindicesoflife

expectancy,literacyandschoolenrolmentrates,andyearsofschooling,andhuman

development.InsectionIV,long-runtrendsininequalityareprovidedforeachwell-

beingindicatorand,then,abreakdownofinequalityintothedispersionwithinthe

WestandtheRestandthegapbetweenthem.Thelastsectionrecapsandraises

questionsforfurtherresearch.

Theresultschallengetheviewonlongruninequalityderivedfromrealper

capitaGDP.InequalityinsocialdimensionsdeclinedafterWorldWarI,unlikeincome

inequalitythatincreaseduntilthelatetwentiethcenturyandonly,then,declined.The

spreadofmassprimaryeducationandthehealthtransitionsdrovethedeclineofwell-

beinginequality.Moreover,itsevolutionisonlypartiallyexplainedbytheWest-Rest

gapasthedispersionwithindevelopingregionsprogressivelydefineditstrends.

DebatingWell-beingInequality

Earlierquantitativeassessmentsofinternationalinequalitywerecarriedouton

thebasisofpercapitaGDP,focusingalmostexclusivelyonthelatetwentiethcentury.

Along-termdeteriorationinworlddistributionofincome,ledbya wideninggap

betweendevelopedanddevelopingcountries,wastheprevailingconsensusuptothe

1980s(Theil1979,1989).AlbertBerry,FrançoisBourguignon,andChristianMorrisson

(1983)challengedthisviewbypointingoutthatlargecountrieswerethemain

determinantsoftheexhibitedtrends.4Later,BrankoMilanovic(2005,2016)showed

thatinternationalpopulation-weightedinequality(‘Inequality2’,inhistypology)fell

sincethemid-twentiethcenturywhileunweightedinequality(‘Inequality1’)

experiencedasustainedincreaseuntil2000and,then,declined.

4ThedeterminantroleplayedbyChinaandIndiaintheinternationalincomedistributionisarecurrentfeatureinlaterstudies,cf.Firebaugh(1999),BourguignonandMorrisson(2002),Milanovic(2005),andSala-i-Martin(2006).

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Inthelastdecades,asdataonhouseholdsurveyshasbecomewidelyavailable,

researchshiftedthefocusto‘global’economicinequality,thatis,incomedistribution

amongindividuals,notjustacrosscountries’averages.Theresultsfromthenew

approachinitiallysupportedtheviewofasubstantialincreaseinglobalinequalityas

wideninginter-countryincomedifferentialsmorethanoffsetthedeclineinwithin-

countryinequality(KorzeniewiczandMoran,1997).Theconsensuswasbrokenwhen

PaulSchultz(1998)showedthatinequalityhadfallensincethemid-1970s,asthe

contractionininequalityacrosscountriescancelledanyincreasesinwithin-country

inequality.Schultz’sfindingsledtoanew,lesspessimisticconsensusthatchallenged

theviewofawideninggapbetweentheworldrichandpoorinthelatetwentieth

century.GlennFirebaugh(1999)alsonoticedaremarkablestabilityinworldincome

distributionbetween1960and1989sincethedivergenceinincomegrowthfavourable

torichcountrieswasoffsetbythefasterpopulationgrowthinpoorcountries.Forthe

post-1980era,MilanovicandJohnRoemer(2016)indicatethatthelevelofglobal

inequality(‘Inequality3’)remainedstableandhigh,andonlydeclinedsincetheearly

2000s.5

Longruninequalityhasreceivedlittlequantitativeattentionduetodata

constraints.BourguignonandMorrisson(2002),onthebasisof33“trans-national”

units,concludedthatworldinequalitywasmuchhigherin1992thanin1820.This

resultedfromariseininequalitybetweentheearlynineteenthcenturyandmid-

twentiethcenturythattendedtostabilizeduringthesecondhalfofthecentury.The

mainelementbehindlongrunworldincomeinequalitywasthedisparityacross

countries.Nonetheless,within-countryincomedistributiondominatedworld

inequalityduringthenineteenthcentury,whileinthetwentiethcenturycross-country

incomedistributionprevailed.MorerefinedestimatesbyJan-LuitenvanZandenetal.

(2014)tendedtoconfirmBourguignonandMorrisson’sfindings.Drivenbybetween-

countryinequality,thedispersionofglobalincomedistributionincreasedoverthelong

run,mostlyupto1950,stabilisingthereafter,andexperiencingamoderaterisefrom

1980onwards.

5DowrickandAkmal(2005)found,however,thatinequalityincreasedslightlybetween1980and1993.Liberati(2015)confirmedMilanovic’sfindingandpointedoutamoderatedeclineinglobalinequalitysincethebeginningofthetwentieth-firstcentury.

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Percapitaincomeisjustonewell-beingdimensionandsocialscientistshave

alsobeenlookingatotherssuchashealthandeducation.MorrissonandMurtin(2013)

providealongrunviewofglobaleducationinequalityonthebasisofaverageyearsof

schooling6,findingalong-termreduction,mostlyattributabletothediffusionof

literacy.GoeslingandBaker(2008)observedthedecliningdispersionofschooling

yearssince1980andattributedittotheglobalizationofprimaryeducation.

ThelongrunevolutionofhealthinequalityhasbeenaddressedbyBourguignon

andMorrisson(2002)whoestimatedcross-countryinequalityforlifeexpectancyat

birthatscatteredbenchmarks,findingasustainedincreaseininequalitybetween1820

and1910,thatstabilizedupto1929,and,then,declinedsharplydownto1970,

remainingunaltereduntil1990.Anupdateoftheestimatesshowsafurtherdeclinein

the1990s(MorrissonandFabriceMurtin,2005).Thus,thelatetwentiethcentury

levelsofinequalityweresimilartothoseoftheearlynineteenthcentury.7Brian

GoeslingandFirebaugh(2004)foundadeclineinthe1980sthatwasrevertedduring

the1990s,andtheylargelyattributedtothedifferentpaceatwhichlifeexpectancy

evolvedacrosscountries,particularlyinSub-SaharanAfrica.RatiRam(2006)concurred

pointingoutthecontrastbetweenthepre-andpost-1990periodsandattributingthe

divergenceinthe1990stotheroleofHIV/AIDS.GoeslingandDavidBaker(2008)

stressedtheunevendiffusionofhealthknowledge,practice,andtechnologyacross

countriesthat,asRyanEdwards(2011)observes,translatedintosteady,oreven

growing,internationalinequalityinadultlongevitybetween1970and2000.

Whethertolookatdifferentwell-beingdimensionsofindividuallyortoresort

tomultidimensionalindicespresentsadilemma.Ontheonehand,theinterpretation

ofindividualindicesisstraightforwardandthatprovidesanadvantage.Ontheother,if

individualindicesshowconflictingtendencies,drawinggeneralconclusionsonits

evolutionbecomesimpossible(Decancqetal.,2009).Thishasledtoconstructing

6MorrisonandMurtin(2013)useBourguignonandMorrisson’strans-nationalunitsor“large”countries(32ratherthan33,intheircase).ItisworthnotingthatMorrisonandMurtinalsomeasurehumancapitalinequalitythatinsofaramonetarydimensionofeducationisbeyondthispaper’sscope.7GoeslingandFirebaugh(2004),onthebasisofsecondaryliterature,alsohypothesisedaninvertedUshapeevolutionofhealthinequalityoverthelasttwocenturies,startingfromlowlevelsthatwouldhaveincreasedsincethelatenineteenthcenturyandpeakedintheInterwaryears,todeclineduringthesecondhalfofthetwentiethcentury.

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compositeindicatorsinwhichtwomainapproaches,welfareandcapabilities,canbe

distinguished.

Thepioneerinaddressinginternationalinequalitywithinacapabilities

framework,Ram(1992),noticedadiscrepancybetweenthehighlevelofincome

inequalityandthelowlevelofhumandevelopmentinequality.Earlier,onthebasisof

thePhysicalQualityofLifeIndex,Ram(1980)hadobservedasustaineddeclineinwell-

beinginequalityover1950-1970,atoddswiththesimultaneousrisingtrendobserved

forincome.Later,FarhadNoorbakhsh(2006)pointedoutaslowinequalityreduction

inhumandevelopmentduringthelastquarterofthetwentiethcentury.More

recently,RicardoMartínez(2012)hasfoundadeclineintheinternationaldispersionof

humandevelopmentbetween1980and2010.Intheonlylongrunperspective

availableonhumandevelopment,MorrissonandMurtin(2005)observedthatthe

evolutionofinequalityforaslightlymodifiedversionoftheUNDPHDIhadaninverted

U-shapewithaturningpointin1930.8

AlsoinspiredinAmartyaSen’scapabilitiesapproach,andonthebasisof

‘achievementindices’(seenextsection)fordifferentsocialindicators(infantmortality

rate,lifeexpectancyatbirth,anddailycalorieandproteinsupply),BartHobijnand

PhilipHansFranses(2001)disputedtheviewthatstandardsoflivingconvergedinthe

latetwentiethcenturysuggestinganincreaseinunweightedinequalitythatresulted

fromawideninggapbetweenCoreandPeripherysincethe1960s.9

Themainstylizedfactthatderivesfromthesurveyedliteratureis,therefore,a

long-termriseinwell--beinginequalitythatpeakedbytheearly-twentiethcentury

and,then,gavewaytoasustaineddecline.Thisisatoddswiththeevolutionof

internationalincomedistribution,inwhichdispersionroseuptoapeakby1950,

stabilisedand,then,declined.Canthisdepictionofthetrendsinwell-beinginequality

8Morerecently,Rijpma(2017)hasconstructedacomprehensivewell-beingindexforthelasttwocenturiesonthebasisofawiderangeofindicators(income,health,education,politicalinstitutions,freedom,inequality,andpersonalsecurity)andusingalatentvariablemodel.ThiscompositeindexshowsmoreintenseimprovementandstrongerconvergenceovertimethanGDPperhead.Also,Decancqetal.(2009)usingaflexibleindexofmultidimensionalwell-beingshowedadeclineinunweightedinequalityover1975-2000.9ThisconclusionwasdisputedbyNeumayer(2003),whorejectedHobijnandFranses‘achievementindices’toassessinequalityandusingtheoriginalvaluesofasetofsocialvariables(lifeexpectancy,infantsurvival,educationenrolment,literacy,andtelephoneandtelevisionavailability),restatedtheviewofareductionininequalitybetween1960and2000.

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beconfirmedusingamorerigorousconceptualapproachandamorecomprehensive

database?

MeasuringWell-being

Howprogressinnon-economicdimensionsofwell-beingismeasured

constitutesafarfromnegligiblematter.Usuallyoriginalvaluesofsocialvariables(life

expectancy,height,orliteracy)areemployed(AcemogluandJohnson,2007;Beckeret

al.,2005;BourguignonandMorrisson,2002;MorrissonandMurtin,2013;Hattonand

Bray,2010;Lindert,2004).Non-incomewell-beingindicators,suchaslifeexpectancy,

height,infantmortality,literacyandenrolmentratesoryearsofschooling,have,unlike

GDP,asymptoticlimitsthatreflectbiologicalorphysicalmaxima.Thismeansthatthe

useoforiginalvaluesforcomparisonsoverspaceandtimeintroducesbiases,asthe

rangeofvariationisverynarrow,forcingsmallergains(bothabsoluteandrelative)as

theirlevelsgethigher(Sen,1981;Dasgupta,1990;CorniaandMenchini,2006).This

objectionisparticularlyrelevantwhenanattemptismadeatmeasuringthe

distributionofsuchvariableacrosscountriesandovertime,astheuseoforiginal

valuesunavoidablyleadstowardsconvergence.

Atransformationwouldbe,then,requiredtomeasurechangeswithinupper

andlowerbounds.Apossibilityisalineartransformation,suchastheoneusedinthe

UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme’s(UNDP)indexofhumandevelopment,

whichreducesthesizeofthedenominatorand,thus,widenstheindex’srange.Indices

foreachdimension(Ix)arecomputedaccordingas,

Ix=(x-Mo)/(M-Mo),[1]

xbeingtheobservedvalueofagivendimensionofwelfare,andMoandMthe

minimumandmaximumvalues(goalposts).Theindexvarieswithin0and1.

However,usinglinearlytransformedvaluesdoesnotsolvetheproblemas

absolutechangesofidenticalsizeresultinsmallermeasuredimprovementforthe

countrywiththehigherinitiallevel(Sen,1981;Kakwani,1993).10Consider,for

example,twoimprovementsinlifeexpectancyatbirth,onefrom30to40yearsand

10AsDecancqetal.(2009)putit,theproblemofspuriousconvergenceremains,nonetheless,withaconcavetransformationas“itdampenstheeffectofincreasingvaluesatthehigherendofthedistribution”(p.17).

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anotherfrom70to80years.Theseincreasesareidenticalinabsoluteterms,butthe

secondissmallerinproportiontotheinitialstartinglevel.

Valuingequallyidenticalincreasesinabsolutetermsatlowandhighlevelsmay

raiseethicalobjections,though.However,asParthaDasgupta(1990:23)pointedout,

‘Equalincrementsarepossiblyoflessandlessethicalworthaslifeexpectancyrisesto

65or70yearsandmore.Butwearemeaningperformancehere.Soitwouldseem

thatitbecomesmoreandmorecommendableif,withincreasinglifeexpectancy,the

indexweretoriseatthemargin.Theideahereisthatitbecomesmoreandmore

difficulttoincreaselifeexpectancyaslifeexpectancyrises’.SuchviewissharedbySen

(1981:292),whoasserted,“aslongevitybecomeshigh,itbecomesmoreofan

achievementtoraiseitfurther”.Moreover,givingmoreweighttosavingthelifeof

youngeroverolderpeopleimpliesanarbitraryvaluejudgement(Deaton,2006).

Theshortcomingsofalineartransformationoforiginalvaluesbecomemore

evidentwhenqualityistakenintoaccount.Lifeexpectancyatbirth,andliteracyand

schoolingratesarejustcrudeproxiesfora“longandhealthylife”(Engineeretal.,

2009)andforaccesstoknowledge,respectively,whichconstitutethewell-beingaims

inthecapabilitiesapproach.

Medicalresearchconcludesthathealthylifeexpectancyincreasesinline(or

evenmorethanproportionally)withlifeexpectancyatbirthandthat,aslife

expectancyraises,disabilityforthesameage-cohortfalls(Salomonetal.,2012;

Mathersetal.,2001).Inotherwords,thequalityofliferisesforeachagecohortaslife

expectancyatbirthincreases.11Similarly,thequalityofeducation,measuredinterms

ofcognitiveskills,growsasthequantityofeducationincreases(HanushekandKimko,

11Thedeclineinage-specificdisabilityaslifeexpectancyatbirthincreasesiscompatible,however,withtherecentfindingthatyearslosttodisability(YLD)risewithlifeexpectancybecauseYLDtendtoconcentrateattheendoflife(Salomonetal.,2012).So,perhaps,theviewthatwhilelongevityincreases,periodsofill-healthcanbelonger,butarelivedinbetterhealthandlessdisability,duetomedicaltechnologicadvance(Manton,1982),qualifiesFries(1980)morbiditycompressionhypothesis(SeethediscussioninFriesetal.,2011andLindgren,2016).StudyingtheUnitedStatesover1990-2005Cutleretal.(2014)arguedthatthereductionindisabledlifeexpectancyandtheincreaseindisability-freelifeexpectancysuggestthecompressionofmorbidity.AlsoChernewetal.(2016)foundanincreaseinhealthylifeexpectancyalongafallindisablelifeexpectancyintheU.S.during1992-2008.However,thisfindingisnotconfirmedonthebasisofself-reportedchronicdiseaseandBeltrán-Sánchezetal.(2016)concludethatthereisnoclearevidenceofcompressionofmorbidity.ThescepticalviewalsofindsupportinthecaseofEurope,forwhichHegerandKolodziej(2016)donotfindthatmedicalprogressreducesthedisablingimpactofdiseases,associatingpopulationageingwithanextensionofmorbidity.

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2000;Altinoketal.,2014).12Thebottomlineisthatmoreyearsoflifeandeducation

implyhigherqualityofhealthandeducationduringchildhoodandadolescence.

Unfortunatelynohistoricaldataonhealth-adjustedlifeexpectancyandquality-

adjustededucationmeasuresforthebroadcountrysampleconsideredhereare

availablebefore1990.Infact,whetheranassociationbetweenmortalityand

morbidityexistedbetween1870and1990remainsanunknown(Riley,1990;Howse,

2006;Bleakley,2007,2010).However,NanakKakwani’s(1993)proposalof

transformingsocialdimensionswithanonlinearfunction,inwhichachievementsof

thesameabsolutesizehavealargerimpactasthestartingpointishigher,mayprovide

ashort-cutmethodtoderiveproxiesforhealthylifeexpectancyandcognitiveskillson

thebasisofcrudefiguresforlifeexpectationatbirthandliteracyandenrolmentrates

andyearsofschooling.13

Kakwani(1993)constructedanormalisedindexfromanachievementfunction

inwhichanincreaseinthestandardoflivingofacountryatahigherlevelimpliesa

greaterachievementthanwouldhavebeenthecasehaditoccurredatalowerlevel,

f(x,Mo,M)=((M-Mo)1-ε–(M–x)1-ε)/((M-Mo)1-ε),for0<ε<1[2]

=f(x,Mo,M)=(log(M-Mo)–log(M–x))/log(M-Mo),forε=1[3]

wherexisanindicatorofacountry’sstandardofliving,MandMoarethemaximum

andminimumvalues,respectively,andlogstandsforthenaturallogarithm.

TheachievementfunctionproposedbyKakwani(1993)isaconvexfunctionof

x,anditisequalto0,ifx=Mo,andequalto1,ifx=M,ranging,thus,between0and

12Thecorrelationbetweenqualityandquantityofeducationover1965-2010appearshighatworldscalebutdeclineswhenthesampleisrestrictedtodevelopedcountries,suggestingthatasthequantityofeducationgetshigher,qualityincreasesbecomemorethanproportional(Altinoketal.,2014).13Lifeexpectancyatbirthdefined,bytheUN,as“Theaveragenumberofyearsthatanewborncouldexpecttolive,ifheorsheweresubjecttotheage-specificmortalityratesofagivenperiod”http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/health/life_expectancy.pdf.Therateofadultliteracyisdefinedasthepercentageofthepopulationaged15yearsandoverwhoisabletoreadandwrite.Theunadjustedenrolmentrateisthepercentageofpopulationaged5-24enrolledinprimary,secondary,andtertiaryeducationthathasbeencorrectedforthepre-1980eratoobtaingrossenrolmentrates(GER).Since1980GERareavailable.Yearsofschoolingrepresenttheaverageyearsoftotalschooling(primary,secondary,andtertiary)forpopulationaged25andover.Seethediscussion,sources,andproceduresinPradosdelaEscosura(2018).

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1.Inthiscontext,thelineartransformationrepresentsaparticularcase,forε=0,

whichyieldsexpression[1]foreachdimensionoftheindex.14

Well-beinginequalityisalsoaddresshereusingacompositeindex,which

representsanalternativetotheUNDP'sconventionalHDI,aHistoricalIndexofHuman

Development(HIHD)(PradosdelaEscosura,2015).AstheconventionalHDI,theHIHD

includesasproxiesforahealthylife,accesstoknowledge,andotheraspectsofwell-

being(notdirectlyassociatedtohealthandeducation),measuresoflongevity(life

expectancyatbirth),education(yearsofschooling),andmaterialwell-being

(discountedpercapitaincome,inlogs),respectively.Thedifferenceisthatnon-income

variablesaretransformednon-linearlyusingexpression[3],ratherthanlinearly(asin

theHDI),soincreasesofthesameabsolutesizerepresentgreaterachievementsthe

higherthelevelatwhichtheytakeplace.Asregardstheincomedimension,ithasbeen

derivedusingexpression[1]andpercapitaGDPinlogs.Althoughthisisafarfrom

satisfactorysolution,relaxingtheassumptionofdiminishingreturnstoincomewould

makepercapitaGDP–nothavinganasymptoticupperbound-thedriverofthehuman

developmentindex,renderingthelatterredundant.15

TheHIHDhasbeenobtainedasamultiplicativecombinationofthetransformed

valuesofeachdimension.16Ifwedenotethenon-linearlytransformedvaluesoflife

expectancyatbirthandyearsofschoolingasLandS,respectively,andtheadjusted

percapitaincomeasY,thehistoricalindexofhumandevelopmentisderivedas,

HIHD=L1/3S1/3Y1/3[4]

14Inthecaseoflifeexpectancy,maximumandminimumvaluesacceptedare85and20years,respectively,while0and100willbetheupperandlowerboundsforadultliteracyandgrossenrolment(primary,secondaryandtertiary)rates,and0and15yearsarethegoalpostsinthecaseofyearsofschooling(UNDP,2014).A‘floor’of25yearshasbeenassumedforoflifeexpectancyatbirth,whileforliteracyandenrolmentrates,thehighestandlowesthistoricalvalueshavebeensetat99and1percent,respectively,and0.01yearsinthecaseofyearsofschooling.Seethediscussion,sources,andcomputationproceduresinPradosdelaEscosura(2018).15SeeZambrano’s(2011a,2011b)theoreticaljustificationfortheintroductionofdiminishingreturnstoincome.Foradiscussionandanalternativeproposalexcludingthelogtransformationofincome,seeRavallion(2012)andHerreroetal.(2012).16Sincealldimensionsareconsideredindispensable,theyareassignedequalweights(UNDP,2010).Upperandlowerboundsandmaximumandminimumlevelsforlifeexpectancyandyearsofschoolingarethoseoffootnote14.Inthecaseofpercapitaincome,theupperandlowerbounds,expressedinGeary-Khamis[G-K]1990dollars,$46,949and$100,respectively.A‘floor’of$300hasbeenaccepted.SeethediscussioninPradosdelaEscosura(2018).

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TrendsinWell-beingInequality

Iswell-beinginequalityhigherintheworldtodaythanitwasinthelate

nineteenthcentury?Canwedistinguishdifferentphasesinitsevolution?Howdo

differentdimensionsofwell-beingcompare?Whatwerethemaindriversof

inequality?

Theoverviewoftheliteratureshowsthatmoststudiesaddressinequalityin

socialdimensionsofwell-beingusingtheiroriginalvalues(and,occasionally,their

lineartransformation)butthisapproachtendstobiastheresultsfavouring

convergence.Suchspurioustendencyismitigatedhere,ifnottotallysuppressed,by

resortingtoKakwaninon-lineartransformationofhealthandeducationdimensions

(seeHobijnandFranses,2001).Therefore,theresultspresentedinthissectionshould

provideamoreaccuratepictureofwell-beinginequalitytrends.

Alternativeinequalitymeasuresarechosen,astheydifferintheirsensitivityto

differentpartsofthedistribution.Thus,AtkinsonclassA(ε)indices(inwhichε

representsaninequalityaversionparameterusuallyrangingfrom0.5to2.5)–withthe

largerε,themoresensitivetheindexistodifferencesatthebottomofthe

distribution-,forwhichIhavechosenε=2,isoneoption.TheGinicoefficient,whichis

moresensitivetothemiddle(mode)ofthedistribution,isalsoselected.Lastly,

entropyindicesG(0),whichcorrespondstoHenriTheil’s(1967)populationweighted

index,alsoknownasMeanLogarithmicDeviation(MLD),andG(1),orTheil’sincome

weightedindex,knownforshort,asTheil,areconsidered.InentropyindicesG(α),the

morepositive(negative)α,themoresensitivetheindexistodifferencesatthetop

(bottom)ofthedistribution.Hence,MLDismoresensitivetothebottom,andTheilto

thetopofthedistribution.

Twotypesofinequalityestimatesarepresentedhere,inequalitybetween

countryaveragesinwhichallcountriesaregiventhesameweight,regardlesstheir

size,thatis,Milanovic’s(2005)Inequality1;andinequalitybetweencountryaverages

butweightedbycountriessize,soalargecountrycountsmorethanasmallone,

namely,Milanovic’sInequality2.Theunweightedmeasureofinequality(Inequality1)

allowsforthefactthatpoliciesareimplementedatcountrylevelandimpactonits

citizens’well-being.Besides,weightedmeasures(Inequality2)areverysensitivetothe

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performanceofhighlypopulatedcountries.However,Inequality2,althoughimplicitly

assumesperfectlyequalwithin-countrydistribution,doesgetusclosertoameasureof

worlddistributionbyassigninghighervaluetomorepopulatedcountries(Milanovic,

2005:7-8).Unfortunately,nodataonwithin-countrydistributionofsocialdimensions

ofwell-beingareavailableforsuchalargesampleandtimespan.17

Differentcountrysampleshavebeenusedinthealternativeinequality

estimates,forwhichthelongerthetimespan,thenarrowerthespatialcoverage.Thus,

overtheentiretimespan,1870-2015,96countriesareconsidered,itsnumberrising

upto105,138,155,and164countriesforthesamplesstartingin1913,1950,1980,

and1990,respectively.Thecountrysamplesrepresentabove90percentoftheworld

population.Theresultsofthesesampleshavebeensplicedusingasbenchmarkthe

morerecentperiod,whichhaslargercountrycoverage(PradosdelaEscosura,2018).

Doespopulation-weightedinternationalinequality(Inequality2)provideagood

proxyforglobalinequality,thatis,inequalityamongworldinhabitants(Inequality3)?

Thiswouldbethecaseifbetween-countryinequality,ratherthanwithin-country

inequality,drivesglobalinequality.18Evidenceonglobalinequalityestimatesbothfor

percapitaincomeandeducationsupportsthishypothesis(Bourguignonand

Morrisson,2002:vanZandenetal.,2013;MorrissonandMurtin,2013).Itwillbe,then,

assumedherethatinter-countrydispersionprovidesalowerboundmeasureofglobal

inequality.19

Asinternationalinequalityhasbeenusuallyassessedintermsofpercapita

GDP,Iwillstartbylookingatinequalityinaverageincomessotheconventional

yardstickisprovided.20Ifwefirstlydelveintounweightedmeasures(Inequality1),a

sustainedincreaseinincomeinequalityappearsforthoseindicessensitiveto

17ClioInfrahttps://www.clio-infra.eu/effortstoprovideinequalitymeasuresforeducationandincomefallshortoftheamountofdatarequiredinmyestimates.18Thisassertiononlyappliesinthecontextofperfectlydecomposableentropyindices,butfortheGini,theoverlapcomponent,whichtendstoevolveinoppositedirectiontobetween-countryinequality,alsomatters(Milanovic,2005:25).19Itcouldalsobearguedthatthedispersioninsocialdimensionstendstobesignificantlowerthaninthecaseofincome,namely,thelongevityoreducationgapbetweentherichandthepoorislessthanproportionaltotheirincomegap.20ThedatasourcesandproceduresareexposedinPradosdelaEscosura(2018).Thecountryestimatesforthedifferentwell-beingdimensionsexaminedhereareaccessibleathttp://espacioinvestiga.org/home-hihd/?lang=en.

14

changesatthebottomofthedistribution:intheAtkinsoncoefficient,A(ε=2),allthe

wayto2000,stabilisinghereafter;alsointheMLD,butforflatteningbetweenthe

1950sand1980s,andfallingwiththenewcentury(Figure1aandTable1).

Meanwhile,fortheTheil,ameasuresensitivetothetopofthedistribution,therise

ininequalitystoppedin1950,openingthewaytoasteadydeclinedownto1990

andshadowingMLDbehaviourhenceforth.TheGini,moresensitivetothemiddle

ofthedistribution,alsopeakedin1950,stabilisingthereafterbutfluctuatingalong

theTheil.Itisworthstressingthesharpincreaseininequalitybetweentheendof

theGreatDepressionand1950acrossallinequalitymeasuresthatmaybe

attributedtotheunevenimpactofWorldWarII.

Whenpopulation-weightedinequalityacrosscountries(inequality2),is

examined,allindicesshowasustainedriseupto1950,slowingdowntothe1980s,

anddecliningthereafter(Figure1bandTable1).Indices’behaviour,nonetheless,

differedsincethemid-twentiethcentury,withtheGiniandtheTheil,ratherstable

andonlyfallingsince2000,andtheMLDandAtkinsonrisingandfalling,with1980

asaturningpoint.

PopulationandGDPexpandedatdifferentpaceacrosscountriesoverthelong

run.DidinequalityrisebecausepercapitaincomeGDPgrewatdifferentratesacross

countries,orjustbecausepopulationgrewfasterincountrieswitheitherloworhigh

income?Awaytoprovideanansweristosimulatetheyearlyratesatwhich,other

thingsbeingequal,inequalitywouldhaveevolvedhadallcountriesenjoyedidentical

percapitaincome(population)growth.21Theresultsfromthesimulationindicatethat

differencesinthepaceofeconomicgrowthacrosscountriesexplaintheevolutionof

incomeinequality,whilenosignificantimpactderivesfromthedispersioninratesof

populationgrowth(Table2).

Thereisaconsensusintheliteratureabouttheimpactoflargecountrieson

population-weightedinequality,buthowmuchdotheyconditionInequality2levels

andtrends?ExcludingIndiaandChinaallowustofindouthowmuchofthe

describedtrendsininternationalincomeinequalityresultsfromtheirevolution 21Thepracticalwayofcarryingoutthesimulationherehasbeencomputingweightedinequalitymeasuresinwhichinitiallevelofpopulationhasbeenkeptconstantoverspecificperiods:1870-1913,1913-1950,1950-1990,and1990-2015.

15

(Figure2andTable3).ItappearsthatthetwolargeAsiancountriescontributed

significantlytoahigherlevelofinternationalinequalityuntil1990,particularlyover

1913-1980,andtoitsreductionthereafter.Alternatively,excludingSub-Saharan

Africaallowsustoobservethat,sincethemid-1980s,thisregionhasgradually

contributedtoraisinginternationalincomeinequality.

Afurtherquestionistheextenttowhichinequality2isdrivenbythegap

betweenadvancedanddevelopingcountriesandbythedispersionwithineachof

thesetwogroups.HereadvancedcountriescomprisethosebelongingtotheOECD

priortoitsenlargementin1994(OECD,forshort,ortheWest,asthisgroupof

countriesisindistinctivelylabelledthroughoutthepaper).22Itcanbenoticedthatthe

gapbetweentheWestandtheRestwasthemaincontributortotheaggregatelevelof

inequalityuntilthemid-1950s,onthebasisoftheMLD,andfortheentiretimespan

consideredintermsoftheTheil.Thedispersionwithinthetwogroupsexplainstrends

ininternationalinequalityover1930-2000,boththesustainedrisebetweentheearly

1930sandmid-1970sanditsreductionfrom1980to2000(Figures3aand3band

Table4).Acloserlookshowsthatitwasthegrowingdisparitybetweendeveloping

regionswhatdeterminedthelevelsandtrendsofpost-1950internationalincome

inequality(Table4,col.6).

Doesinternationalinequalityinsocialdimensionsofwell-beingreplicatetrends

andlevelsofincomeinequality?Accesstoknowledgeisacomponentofwelfaretobe

considered.Threealternativemeasuresofeducationareconsideredhere:theliteracy

rate,astockvariablethatiscertainlythemostrelevantoneinearlystagesof

developmentbutthathasalsobeenconsideredasthemaindriverofthedispersion

overthelongrunofamorecompleteindicator,yearsofschooling(Morrisonand

Murtin,2013).Thegrossenrolmentrateforprimary,secondary,andtertiary

education,aflowvariablethatprobablycapturesbetterformaleducationand,since

22Inthispaper,OECD,ortheWest,coincideslargely–butnotcompletely–withthemembershipoftheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)upto1994:WesternEurope,its'WesternOffshoots',andJapan.WesternEuropeincludesAustria,Belgium,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Ireland,Italy,theNetherlands,Norway,Portugal,Spain,Sweden,SwitzerlandandtheUnitedKingdom.ThreeOECDmembersareexcluded:IcelandandLuxemburgareleftoutforlackofhumandevelopmentestimates;TurkeyiscountedwithAsiainordertoreducegroupheterogeneityintermsofdevelopment.'WesternOffshoots'consistsofAustralia,Canada,NewZealandandtheUnitedStates.

16

mostofitsprogresshasbeenachievedthroughpubliceducation,providesameasure

ofgovernmentintervention.Lastly,yearsofschooling,anotherstockvariable,isthe

mostcomprehensivemetricbuthas,nonetheless,thedownsideofitslowercountry

coverage.23

HighlevelsofinequalityIandII-wellabovethoseforpercapitaincomeandlife

expectancyatbirth-areobservedforallaccesstoknowledgeproxymeasuresinthe

latenineteenthandearlytwentiethcentury,priortothediffusionofmassprimary

education(BenavotandRiddle,1988;Lindert,2004).

Inthecaseofliteracy,bothInequalityIandIIstartedfromhighlevelsand

experiencedsteadydeclinethroughoutmostofthetwentiethcentury,eventhough

thelevelsremainedhighuntilitslastquarter(Figures4aand5b).Forexample,theGini

movedfrom0.7to0.3over1870-2015butwasstillat0.5in1970andonlyfellbelow

0.4by1990.Moreover,whenmeasuredbytheAtkinsonindex,inequalityremained

stableuntilmid-twentiethcenturyfollowing,then,alongrunandsteadydecline(Table

5).

Intermsofenrolment,inequalityfelltotheearly1980s,butsufferedareversal

inthe1990s,stabilisingthereafter(Figures5aand5b).OnlyinthecaseoftheAtkinson

index,thedeclineofInequality1wasdeferreduntilthesecondhalfofthetwentieth

century(Table6).Asinthecaseofliteracy,inequalitylevelsremainedhighuntilmid-

twentiethcentury(itonlyfellbelow0.4inthe1950s).

InequalityinyearsofschoolingfellsteadilysinceWorldWarI,exceptforthe

Atkinsonindexthatinitiateditsdeclineafterwards(since1938and1929forthe

unweightedandpopulation-weightedmeasures,respectively)(Figures6aand6b).

Nonetheless,inequalitywasstillhighinthethirdquarterofthetwentiethcenturywith

aGiniof0.45aslateas1975(Table7).

Inalleducationmeasures,thedispersionofitsimprovementacrosscountries,

ratherthanthevarianceofpopulationgrowth,explainstheinequalitycontractionover

thelongrun(Table8).

Inordertoascertaintheextenttowhichlargecountriesconditioned

population-weightedmeasuresofinequality,Ihavesimulatedliteracy,enrolment,and

23AlsothelessdetaileddiscussionofthedatasetsourcesbytheirauthorsLeeandLee(2016)andBarroandLee(2013)hasbeentakenintoaccount.SeePradosdelaEscosura(2018).

17

yearsofschoolinginequalityintheabsenceofChinaandIndia,firstly,and,then,inthe

absenceoftheSub-SaharanAfricanregion(Figures7a,7b,and7c).Itappearsthat

ChinaandIndiacontributedtohigherlevelsofinequalityintheInterwaryearswhen

measuredintermsofliteracy;priortoWorldWarII,intermsofenrolment;and

between1913and1960,inyearsofschooling;and,then,tolowerlevelsinthe1960s

andfrom1990onwards(literacy),andsince1950and1970(enrolmentandyearsof

schooling,respectively).Interestingly,ChinaandIndiaalsocontributedtolower

inequalityintermsofliteracyandyearsofschoolingpriorto1900.Sub-SaharanAfrica

contributedtohigherinequalitysince1890(literacy)and1950(enrolment),andfrom

the1920sonwards(yearsofschooling),butalsotolowerinequalitypriorto1900in

thecaseofenrolment(Tables9-11).

HowdotrendsineducationinequalitycomparetothoseobtainedbyMorrisson

andMurtin(2013)?Theseauthorscomputedinter-countryeducationinequalityonthe

basisoftheoriginalvaluesofaverageyearsofschoolingand,therefore,theresulting

levelofinequalityissystematicallylowerthanthoseprovidedhere,asbounded

variablesexhibitaspurioustendencytowardsconvergence.Nonetheless,inequality

fellinMorrissonandMurtin’sestimates,asalsohappenedwhenIreplicatedthe

measurementofinequalityusingoriginalvaluesoftheeducationvariables(literacy

andgrossenrolmentratesandyearsofschooling).Nonetheless,thereductionof

inequalitywasmuchlessintensethanwhencomputedonthebasisonKakwaniindices

and,inthecaseofenrolment,noreversalappearsinthe1990s(Figures8a,8b,and

8c).

Breakingdownaggregateinequality2intoinequalitybetweenOECDcountries

andtherestoftheworldandinequalitywithineachofthetwogroupsrevealsthat,in

thecaseofliteracy,thegapbetweentheWestandtheRestmadethemain

contributiontothelevelofinternationalinequalityuntiltheearly1930s,accordingto

theTheil,andhadasimilarcontributiontothatofthedispersionwithineachgroup

until1900accordingtotheMLD;butlargelydrovetotalinequalityuntilmid-twentieth

century(WorldWarII,MLD;1950,Theil).Henceforth,thedispersioninliteracy

standardswithinthetwogroupswasthemaindriver(Table12andFigures9aand9b).

Acloserinspectionrevealsthatitwasactuallythedispersionwithinthedeveloping

regionswhatdroveinequalitytrendssincemid-twentiethcentury(Table12,col.6).

18

Inthecaseofenrolment,thegapbetweentheWestandtheRestrepresented

thelargestshareofinternationalinequalityuntilthetwentiethcentury(1900forthe

MLDand1930fortheTheil)andonlydroveinequalitytrendsuntilthe1920s,when

within-groupinequality-largelywithintheRest-tookover,exceptforthe1990s(Table

13andFigures10aand10b).Thus,althougheducationalpracticesbecameincreasingly

globalisedsincetheinterwaryears,werediffusedunevenlyindevelopingregions

(Table13,col.6).

Whenmeasuredinyearsofschooling,boththelevelandtrendofinequalityare

determinedbythedispersionwithintheWestandtheRest(Table14),andmore

specificallythelatter,accordingtotheMLD,butonlysince1950,onthebasisofthe

Theil(Figures11aand11b).

Longevityisanessentialwell-beingdimension.Inequalitytrendsinlife

expectancy,asmeasuredbydifferentunweightedindices,provideacommonpicture,

althoughlessintensewhencomputedbytheGinicoefficient(Table15).Different

phasescanbeidentifiedforunweightedandpopulation-weightedinequality.

Inequality1roseuptotheearly1920s,butforareversalbetween1900and1913.

Then,asustainedinequalitydeclinetookplacebetweenthelate1920sandmid-1980s,

moreintenseduringthelatethirtiesandforties.Thedecliningtrendrevertedafter

1990,withinequalitygoingbacktoitslevelofthemid-1970sbythemid-2000s,

stabilisinglaterandreturningtothelevelofthelate1990sby2015(Figure12a).Inthe

caseofInequality2,theevolutionwassimilarbutformoreintenseincreaseuptothe

mid-1920swhenhigherlevelswerereached,andasharpercontractionto1985,

followedbyamilderreversalupto2005(Figure12b).

Theperformanceoflargecountrieshadafarfromnegligibleimpacton

inequality2(Table16).IndiaandChinacontributedsignificantlytoriseofinequalityup

tothemid-1920sand,then,partlyoffsetitsreductionuntilthemid-1950s.In

particular,thehighmortalityinChinaduringMao’sGreatLeapForwardcausedthe

dramaticincreaseininequalitybroughtinequalitybacktothepre-WorldWarIIhigh

levelby1960.Sincethe1960s,ChinaandIndiahavecontributedtotheinequality

decline(Figure13).ExcludingSub-SaharanAfricadoesnotalterworldinequality

trends,butreducesitsleveluptotheearly1920sandincreasesitfromthelate1920s

onwards,especially,sincethemid-1960s.

19

Itisalsoworthnotingthatthevarianceinlifeexpectancygainsacross

countries,ratherthanthedispersioninpopulationgrowth,iswhatexplainsthe

inequalitydeclineoverthelongrun(Table17).

Howdoinequalitytrendsinlifeexpectancycomparetothoseobtainedby

previousstudies?BourguignonandMorrisson(2002)computedinequality2onthe

basisoftheoriginalvaluesoflifeexpectancyatbirthand,sinceboundedvariables

tendtoconvergeovertime,thelevelofinequalityissystematicallylowerthaninmy

estimates;nonetheless,theirestimatesalsoexhibitasustaineddecline.Thisinequality

underestimateisconfirmedbythecomparisonbetweenlifeexpectancyinequality

measurescomputedfromoriginalvaluesandKakwaniindices.Furthermore,the

inequalitymeasureobtainedfromoriginalvaluesdoesnotcapturethepost-1985

reversal(Figure14).

Trendsininequality2havebeendecomposedintobetween-groupinequality,

thatis,thegapbetweentheOECDandtheRestoftheworld,andinequalitywithin

eachofthesetwogroups(Table20).ItisonlyuptoWorldWarII,thatthegap

betweentheWestandtheRestmadethelargestcontributiontointernational

inequality;thereafter,withingroupinequalitybecameitsmaincontributor(Figures

15aand15b).However,thedispersionwithinOECDandtheRestdroveinequality

trendsuptothe1920s,whilethereductioninthegapbetweentheWestandtheRest

steeredthedeclineinaggregateinequalitybetween1929and1970.Thepost-1990

increaseininequalitywasduetothedispersionwithintheRest(Table18).

Sofartrendsinlifeexpectancyinequalityhavebeendrawn,buthowcanthey

beexplained?Andwhyaresodifferentfromthoseofpercapitaincome?

Healthimprovementscanbedepictedintermsofahealthfunction(Preston,

1975).Movementsalongthefunctionrepresentgainsthatcanbeattributedto

economicgrowthandresultinnutritionimprovements-thatstrengthentheimmune

systemandreducemorbidity(Stolnitz,1955;McKeownetal.,1962,1975;Fogel,

2004)-andinthepublicprovisionofhealth(Loudon,2000;CutlerandMiller,2005).

Outwardshiftsinthehealthfunctioncapture,inturn,medicaltechnologicalchange,

whichhasbeenthemaincontributortothelongrunincreaseinlongevitysincethe

latenineteenthcentury(McKinlayandMcKinlay,1977;Riley,2005b;Cutleretal.,

2006).

20

Theepidemiologicalorhealthtransition–thatis,thephaseinwhichpersistent

gainsinlowermortalityandhighersurvivalareachievedasinfectiousdiseasegives

waytochronicdiseaseasthemaincauseofdeath(Omran,1971;Riley,2001)-is

associatedtothediffusionofthegermtheoryofdiseasesincethe1880s(Preston,

1975)thatledtotheintroductionofnewvaccinessincethe1890s.Moreover,medical

technologicalprogressintroducednewdrugstocureinfectiousdiseases-sulphadrugs

sincethelate1930s(Easterlin1999)andantibioticssincethe1950s-,contributingto

spreadthehealthtransition(Easterlin,1999;Jayachandranetal.,2010;Lindgren,

2016).

However,widespreadgainsinlongevitythatlaybeneaththedeclineinlife

expectancyinequalityduringtheglobalisationbacklash(1914-1950),atimeof

economicdistress,demandfurtherexplanationsthatarealsolinkedtothegerm

theoryofdisease.Thus,improvementsinpublichealth–oftenatlowcost,aslow

incomespreventedthepurchaseofthenewdrugs-andthediffusionofpreventive

methodsofdiseasetransmissionandknowledgedisseminationthroughschool

educationcontributedtoreducinginfantmortalityandmaternaldeath,twomajor

determinantsoftheincreaseinlifeexpectancyatbirthindevelopingregions(Riley,

2001).

Duringtheepidemiologicaltransitionsubstantialachievementsinlongevity

wereattainedbutnotsharedequallywithinsocietiesandacrosscountries.Lackof

economicmeansandbasicscientificknowledgepreventedafastandwidediffusionof

newmedicaltechnologyandhealthpracticeacrosscountries.Thus,inthelate

nineteenthandearlytwentiethcentury,theincreaseinlifeexpectancyinequalitycan

beassociatedtothefactthatthefirsthealthtransitionwasunevenlydistributedand

initiallyrestrictedtoadvancedwesterncountries.

Thegradualinternationaldiffusionofthehealthtransitionbetweenthe1920s

andthe1970shelpstoexplainthereductioninlifeexpectancyinequality.Its

contractionwasparticularlyintenseduringthe1930sand1940s,atatimeofstagnant

ordecliningaverageincomesinmanycountriesandincreasinginternationalincome

inequalityasaresultoftheGreatDepressionandWorldWarII(Table1andFigures2a

and2b).Thiswasduetotheimprovementoflifeexpectancyincountriesoflowper

21

capitaincomelevelsasaconsequenceofthefirsthealthtransition(Mandle,1970;

Reher,2003;Riley,2005a).

Theincreaseinlifeexpectancyinequalityafter1990maybeassociated,notjust

totheimpactofHIV-AIDSinSubSaharanAfricaortothedemiseofsocialisminEastern

Europe,butalsotoasecondhealthtransitionthatsofarhasbeenrestrictedtothe

West.Inthisnewtransition,mortalityandmorbidityfallamongtheelderlyasaresult

ofnewmedicalknowledgethathaspermittedabettertreatmentofrespiratoryand

cardiovasculardiseaseandvisionproblems(particularly,cataractsurgery)(Cutleret

al.,2006;Chernewetal.,2016;EgglestonandFuchs,2012).Theriseinlongevityhas

alsobeenhelpedbybetternutritioninearlyyearsoflife.Theresultispeoplelivingnot

justlongerlifebutlongerhealthylifeyears(Mathersetal.,2001;MurrayandLopez,

1997;Salomonetal.,2012).24

Tosumup,episodesofrisinginternationalinequalityinlifeexpectancyinthe

latenineteenthandearlytwentiethcenturyand,then,inthelatetwentiethandearly

twentieth-firstcentury,coincidewiththeearlystagesoftheepidemiologicalandthe

secondhealthtransitions,respectively,andresultfromtheunevendiffusionofnew

medicalknowledgeandtechnologyandhealthpractices.

Thus,anassociationcouldbeproposedbetweentheleveloflongevityandits

internationaldistribution.TheGinithatcorrespondstodifferentlevelsoflife

expectancyatbirth(bothestimatedfromKakwaniindices)ispresentedinFigure16a.

AninvertedUshapecurverelationshipresultsthatcouldbedeemedaHealthKuznets

Curve.25ThedrivingforceoftheHealthKuznetsCurve(HKC)wouldbethespreadof

thehealthtransitionsacrosscountries.Theunevendiffusionoftheepidemiologicalor

firsttransitionwouldaccountforitsrise,whileitsgradualdiffusionacrosstheglobe

wouldexplainitsdecline.ItisworthnotingthattheHKCshowsasteeprisereachinga

peakatlowlevelsoflifeexpectancyandasmootherandlongerdecline.

24Politicsmayhavealsocontributedtoshapeinequalitytrends.Ithasbeenarguedthatautocraciessuccessfullyfoughtmortalitythroughgovernmentinterventionduringthefirsthealthtransition,butdemocraciesfacilitatedthenewhealthtransitionwithfewerconstraintsonmedicalinnovation,sogainsinlifeexpectancyhavebeenlargerindemocraticthaninauthoritariancountriessincethelatetwentiethcentury(Devereux,2010;Mackenbach,2013).25ThisdepictionoftheHealthKuznetsCurvediffersfromtheoneproposedbyCosta-Fontetal.(2018)whocompareincome-relatedhealthinequalityandpercapitaincome.Inmycase,bothlevelsandinequalitymeasurescorrespondtolifeexpectancy.

22

Moreover,itcouldbeinsinuatedthattheclosingoftheHealthKuznetsCurve

gavewaytoanewone.ThenewHKCappears,nonetheless,tohavebeenshort-lived

aslongevitydifferencesacrosscountriesresultingfromtheunevendiffusionofthe

secondhealthtransition(Cutleretal.2006)havebeenoffset,atleasttemporarily,by

therecoveryoflifeexpectancyinSubSaharanAfricaandinformersocialistEurope.

Thesameexercisehasbeenreplicatedonthebasisofuntransformedvaluesof

lifeexpectancyatbirthwithsimilarresultsbutfortheemergenceofasecondHKC

(Figure16b).

Sincethedifferentwell-beingdimensionsdiscussedexhibitcontradictory

trends,alookattheinternationaldistributionofacompositemeasuresuchasthe

HistoricalIndexofHumanDevelopment(HIHD)seemswarranted.26

Theevolutionofhumandevelopmentinequality1showsthat,afteraphaseof

stabilityinthelatenineteenthcentury,butfortheincreaseoftheAtkinsonindex,it

experiencedasustaineddeclinebetweenthe1900sand1980sand,then,stabilisedfor

therestofthetwentiethcentury,resumingitsdeclinesince2010(Figure17aand

Table19).InthecaseofInequality2,itroseupto1900forthoseindicesmore

sensitivetochangesatthebottominthedistribution(MLDandAtkinson)andthe

subsequentdeclinewasmoreintenseacrosstheboarduptothe1980sand,then,

continuedatsteady,butslower,paceuntil2015(Figure17b).

Itisworthnotingthat,asinthecaseofitsdimensions,itisthevariancein

humandevelopmentgainsacrosscountries,ratherthanthedispersioninpopulation

growth,whatexplainedinequalityevolution(Table20).

LargecountriesaffectedsignificantlytheevolutionofInequality2.Chinaand

Indiacontributedtoraisingitsleveluntil1960andreducingitsincethemid-1970s

(Figure18).SubSaharanAfricahasmadeasustainedcontributiontoraisinginequality

sincethemid-1960s,especiallyafter1990(Table21).

Whenaggregateinequality2isdecomposedintothegapbetweentheWest

andtheRestandthedispersionwithinbothgroups,itappearsthatthegapmadethe

largestcontributiontothelevelofinternationalinequalityupto1900fortheMLDand

26TheHIHDusedhereisanadaptationofthe2010(UNDP,2010)indexandusesaverageyearsoftotalschoolingforpopulationaged25andoverasthemeasureofeducation.SeethediscussionofthealternativeHIHDestimatesinPradosdelaEscosura(2018).

23

the1930sfortheTheil(Figures190aand19bandTable22),whilethedispersion

withinthetwogroups,especiallyintheRest,tookoverfrommid-twentiethcentury

onwards(Table26).However,inequalitytrendsweredrivenbythegapbetweenthe

WestandtheRestuptotheearly1960s.

Giventhemultiplicativecompositionofthehumandevelopmentindex

(expression4),whenmeasuredwithanentropyindex,abreakdownofhuman

developmentinequalitycanbeperformedintotheequallyweightedsumofeach

components’inequality-lifeexpectancy(L),yearsofschooling(S),andadjusted

income(Y)-,plusaresidual,thataccountsforthedisparitiesbetweenthecomponents’

distributions(Martínez,2016:417-418).

MLDhihd=1/3MLDL+1/3MLDS+1/3MLDY+R[5]

Theilhihd=1/3TheilL+1/3TheilS+1/3TheilY+R[6]

Itcanbeobservedthatthelevelofhumandevelopmentinequalitydepended

chieflyonthedistributionofeducationoverthelongrun,whilelongevityraised

inequalityuptothemid-1920sanditscontributionfadedawaysincetheearly1960s

(Figures20aand20bandTable23).

ConcludingRemarks

Well-beinginequalityhasdeclinedovertime.Theglobalisationofmassprimary

educationandthehealthtransitionsappearasthemaindriversofsuchanequalising

trend.ThegapbetweentheWestandtheRestexplainsonlypartiallytheevolutionof

well-beinginequalityasthedispersionwithindevelopingregionsincreasingly

determineditstrends.

Thediffusionofthehealthtransitionshasdrivenlifeexpectancyinequality.

Duringmostofthetwentiethcentury,astheepidemiologicaltransitionspreadacross

theglobe,lifeexpectancyroseanditsdispersionfell.Then,itcametoahaltasthe

transitionwascompleted.Attheturnofthecentury,anew,secondhealthtransition,

linkedtothesuccessfulfightagainstcardiovascularandrespiratorydisease,emerged,

extendinglifeexpectancyoftheelderlyinthedevelopedworldandprovokingan

increaseinhealthinequality.

24

Thesefindingsareatoddswiththeviewonlongruninequalityderivedfrom

realpercapitaGDP.Whilepopulation-weightedincomeinequalityincreaseduntilthe

thirdquarterofthetwentiethcentury,inequalityinsocialdimensionsdeclinedsince

WorldWarI.Furthermore,thecontrastbetweeninequalityintermsofincomeand

humandevelopmentisstriking(Figure21)andchallengestheideathatpercapita

incomeprovidesagoodpredictorofwelfaretrends.

Whyinequalitydeclinedintermsofsocialdimensions,butnotofGDPper

head?Wasitduetopublicpolicy,ortothefactthatmedicaltechnologyisapublic

good?WhyhastherebeennosecondhealthtransitionintheRest?Isittheoutcome

ofinequalisingnewmedicaltechnologies,oroflackofpublicpolicies?Asthenew

medicaltechnologiesbecomeaccessible,isitforeseeableadeclineinlifeexpectancy

inequalityinthetwentieth-firstcentury?Answeringthesechallengingquestions

requiresanambitiousresearchprogramme.

25

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30

Table1

InternationalInequalityinRealPerCapitaGDP,1870-2015

Unweighted

Populationweighted

MLD Theil Gini Atkinson(ε=2) MLD Theil Gini Atkinson(ε=2)1870 0.26 0.32 0.40 0.36 0.17 0.20 0.32 0.251880 0.29 0.36 0.42 0.39 0.21 0.25 0.36 0.301890 0.31 0.38 0.44 0.42 0.25 0.28 0.39 0.341900 0.33 0.40 0.45 0.44 0.29 0.32 0.43 0.391913 0.37 0.44 0.47 0.48 0.35 0.36 0.46 0.451925 0.39 0.45 0.48 0.50 0.38 0.40 0.48 0.481929 0.42 0.47 0.49 0.53 0.40 0.41 0.49 0.501933 0.38 0.44 0.47 0.49 0.32 0.33 0.44 0.441938 0.42 0.48 0.49 0.53 0.40 0.39 0.48 0.511950 0.48 0.54 0.52 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.55 0.621955 0.48 0.53 0.52 0.58 0.53 0.51 0.54 0.601960 0.47 0.49 0.51 0.58 0.55 0.51 0.54 0.621965 0.46 0.44 0.50 0.59 0.57 0.52 0.55 0.621970 0.48 0.45 0.51 0.61 0.60 0.54 0.56 0.641975 0.48 0.41 0.50 0.62 0.62 0.54 0.56 0.661980 0.48 0.40 0.49 0.63 0.62 0.55 0.56 0.661985 0.48 0.39 0.49 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.56 0.641990 0.51 0.42 0.50 0.65 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.641995 0.56 0.46 0.52 0.68 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.632000 0.58 0.47 0.53 0.70 0.56 0.57 0.55 0.622005 0.58 0.45 0.52 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.52 0.612010 0.54 0.42 0.50 0.70 0.41 0.40 0.47 0.582015 0.53 0.41 0.50 0.70 0.38 0.36 0.45 0.58

31

Table2

PopulationGrowthDispersion:ContributiontoRealPerCapitaGDPInequality

(population-weightedMLDandTheil)

MLD

Theil

Actual FixedInitialPopulation Actual FixedInitialPopulation

1870 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.211880 0.22 0.22 0.25 0.251890 0.26 0.25 0.28 0.281900 0.31 0.30 0.33 0.321913 0.36 0.35 0.37 0.37

1913 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.371925 0.40 0.39 0.41 0.401929 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.411933 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.341938 0.42 0.43 0.40 0.401950 0.57 0.58 0.55 0.53

1950 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.551955 0.55 0.55 0.53 0.521960 0.56 0.57 0.52 0.521965 0.58 0.59 0.54 0.531970 0.61 0.62 0.56 0.541975 0.63 0.64 0.56 0.531980 0.63 0.65 0.57 0.541985 0.61 0.63 0.57 0.541990 0.62 0.64 0.59 0.55

1990 0.62 0.62 0.59 0.591995 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.562000 0.56 0.55 0.57 0.552005 0.50 0.48 0.50 0.482007 0.47 0.45 0.46 0.432010 0.41 0.39 0.40 0.372015 0.38 0.35 0.36 0.32

32

Table3

InternationalInequalityinRealGDPperhead,1870-2015:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica

(population-weightedMLD)

Excluding Excluding

Actual ChinaandIndia SubSaharanAfrica

1870 0.17 0.17 0.171880 0.21 0.21 0.211890 0.25 0.22 0.241900 0.29 0.23 0.291913 0.35 0.25 0.351925 0.38 0.29 0.381929 0.40 0.29 0.401933 0.32 0.23 0.321938 0.40 0.26 0.401950 0.56 0.39 0.561955 0.53 0.39 0.531960 0.55 0.39 0.551965 0.57 0.42 0.561970 0.60 0.44 0.601975 0.62 0.45 0.611980 0.62 0.46 0.611985 0.59 0.50 0.571990 0.62 0.56 0.581995 0.57 0.61 0.522000 0.56 0.63 0.502005 0.50 0.61 0.422010 0.41 0.56 0.322015 0.38 0.55 0.28

33

Table4

DecomposingInternationalInequalityinRealPerCapitaGDP,1870-2015(population-weightedMLDandTheil)

MLD

Within-group Between-group TOTAL OECD TheRest1870 0.03 0.14 0.17 0.05 0.031880 0.04 0.17 0.21 0.05 0.041890 0.06 0.19 0.25 0.05 0.061900 0.08 0.21 0.29 0.05 0.091913 0.11 0.23 0.35 0.05 0.131925 0.12 0.26 0.38 0.06 0.131929 0.14 0.26 0.40 0.05 0.161933 0.12 0.20 0.32 0.04 0.141938 0.18 0.23 0.40 0.06 0.201950 0.27 0.29 0.56 0.12 0.301955 0.25 0.28 0.53 0.09 0.281960 0.28 0.27 0.55 0.06 0.321965 0.29 0.28 0.57 0.05 0.341970 0.34 0.26 0.60 0.03 0.401975 0.37 0.24 0.62 0.03 0.431980 0.38 0.24 0.62 0.02 0.431985 0.34 0.25 0.59 0.03 0.391990 0.34 0.28 0.62 0.02 0.391995 0.30 0.27 0.57 0.02 0.342000 0.28 0.28 0.56 0.02 0.312005 0.26 0.24 0.50 0.03 0.292010 0.24 0.18 0.41 0.02 0.262015 0.23 0.15 0.38 0.03 0.26

Theil

Within-group Between-group TOTAL OECD TheRest

1870 0.04 0.16 0.20 0.04 0.031880 0.04 0.20 0.25 0.04 0.041890 0.06 0.22 0.28 0.05 0.071900 0.07 0.25 0.32 0.05 0.101913 0.09 0.27 0.36 0.05 0.131925 0.09 0.30 0.40 0.05 0.151929 0.10 0.30 0.41 0.05 0.171933 0.09 0.24 0.33 0.03 0.151938 0.13 0.27 0.39 0.05 0.211950 0.20 0.34 0.54 0.11 0.301955 0.17 0.34 0.51 0.08 0.291960 0.18 0.33 0.51 0.05 0.331965 0.19 0.33 0.52 0.04 0.351970 0.22 0.32 0.54 0.03 0.421975 0.24 0.30 0.54 0.02 0.441980 0.24 0.31 0.55 0.02 0.441985 0.23 0.32 0.56 0.03 0.411990 0.23 0.36 0.59 0.02 0.431995 0.21 0.36 0.57 0.02 0.382000 0.19 0.37 0.57 0.02 0.352005 0.18 0.32 0.50 0.02 0.302010 0.16 0.23 0.40 0.02 0.252015 0.16 0.20 0.36 0.03 0.23

34

Table5

InternationalInequalityinLiteracy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndices)

Unweighted

Populationweighted


35

Table6

InternationalInequalityinGrossEnrolment,1870-2015(KakwaniIndices)

Unweighted

Populationweighted

MLD TheilGiniAtkinson(ε=2) MLD TheilGiniAtkinson(ε=2)1870 0.98 0.77 0.64 0.79 1.42 1.12 0.76 0.931880 0.99 0.75 0.64 0.81 1.43 1.05 0.74 0.951890 0.95 0.68 0.61 0.81 0.94 0.79 0.66 0.831900 0.95 0.65 0.60 0.82 1.05 0.80 0.67 0.871913 0.87 0.59 0.58 0.81 0.92 0.69 0.63 0.851925 0.71 0.48 0.52 0.79 0.62 0.52 0.55 0.721929 0.66 0.44 0.51 0.77 0.55 0.46 0.52 0.681933 0.63 0.43 0.50 0.76 0.56 0.46 0.51 0.691938 0.60 0.40 0.49 0.77 0.62 0.50 0.54 0.741950 0.48 0.32 0.43 0.73 0.33 0.27 0.41 0.611955 0.41 0.28 0.40 0.69 0.25 0.20 0.35 0.541960 0.32 0.24 0.38 0.57 0.19 0.15 0.30 0.431965 0.25 0.20 0.34 0.47 0.17 0.14 0.30 0.361970 0.22 0.17 0.32 0.44 0.15 0.13 0.28 0.301975 0.20 0.15 0.30 0.41 0.13 0.11 0.26 0.281980 0.16 0.12 0.27 0.35 0.11 0.09 0.24 0.221985 0.14 0.11 0.25 0.32 0.11 0.10 0.25 0.211990 0.15 0.12 0.26 0.31 0.12 0.12 0.27 0.221995 0.17 0.15 0.29 0.33 0.14 0.15 0.28 0.242000 0.19 0.18 0.32 0.35 0.16 0.16 0.30 0.262005 0.18 0.18 0.33 0.31 0.14 0.15 0.30 0.232010 0.17 0.17 0.32 0.28 0.13 0.14 0.28 0.212015 0.17 0.17 0.32 0.27 0.12 0.13 0.27 0.20

36

Table7

InternationalInequalityinYearsofSchooling,1870-2015(KakwaniIndices)

Unweighted

Populationweighted

MLD TheilGiniAtkinson(ε=2) MLD TheilGiniAtkinson(ε=2)1870 0.90 0.58 0.57 0.95 0.81 0.57 0.58 0.901880 0.95 0.60 0.58 0.97 1.32 0.89 0.70 1.001890 0.96 0.61 0.58 0.98 1.38 0.87 0.69 1.021900 0.95 0.59 0.58 0.98 1.09 0.78 0.66 0.951913 1.04 0.63 0.59 1.00 1.39 0.92 0.71 1.031925 0.90 0.56 0.57 0.97 1.16 0.78 0.66 0.991929 0.82 0.53 0.55 0.93 1.01 0.71 0.63 0.951933 0.79 0.51 0.55 0.93 0.88 0.65 0.62 0.901938 0.74 0.49 0.54 0.91 0.79 0.61 0.60 0.861950 0.65 0.46 0.52 0.84 0.62 0.52 0.55 0.741955 0.60 0.43 0.50 0.80 0.53 0.46 0.52 0.681960 0.55 0.40 0.49 0.77 0.48 0.43 0.51 0.641965 0.52 0.38 0.48 0.73 0.42 0.38 0.48 0.591970 0.49 0.37 0.47 0.71 0.39 0.36 0.47 0.571975 0.44 0.34 0.45 0.67 0.36 0.34 0.45 0.531980 0.38 0.29 0.42 0.62 0.32 0.31 0.42 0.481985 0.32 0.24 0.39 0.56 0.26 0.26 0.39 0.421990 0.28 0.22 0.36 0.52 0.23 0.23 0.37 0.381995 0.25 0.20 0.35 0.48 0.21 0.21 0.35 0.352000 0.24 0.19 0.34 0.45 0.19 0.19 0.33 0.322005 0.23 0.18 0.33 0.43 0.18 0.18 0.32 0.302010 0.22 0.18 0.33 0.41 0.17 0.17 0.32 0.292015 0.20 0.16 0.32 0.37 0.15 0.15 0.29 0.25

37

Table8

PopulationGrowthDispersion:ContributionEducationInequality(population-weightedMLD)

Literacy

GrossEnrolment YearsofSchooling

Actual

FixedInitialPopulation Actual


FixedInitialPopulation

1870 1.03 1.03 1.25 1.25 0.78 0.781880 0.93 0.92 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.271890 0.92 0.90 0.83 0.82 1.33 1.321900 0.95 0.92 0.93 0.93 1.05 1.021913 0.92 0.90 0.81 0.82 1.33 1.34

1913 0.92 0.92 0.81 0.81 1.33 1.331925 0.90 0.90 0.54 0.53 1.11 1.091929 0.90 0.89 0.48 0.47 0.97 0.961933 0.86 0.85 0.49 0.49 0.84 0.841938 0.77 0.75 0.55 0.54 0.76 0.761950 0.67 0.59 0.33 0.26 0.61 0.58

1950 0.67 0.67 0.33 0.33 0.61 0.611955 0.59 0.59 0.24 0.24 0.52 0.521960 0.55 0.55 0.19 0.19 0.47 0.471965 0.49 0.49 0.17 0.17 0.41 0.411970 0.45 0.46 0.15 0.15 0.39 0.391975 0.42 0.43 0.13 0.13 0.36 0.361980 0.37 0.38 0.11 0.10 0.31 0.311985 0.33 0.34 0.11 0.11 0.26 0.261990 0.28 0.28 0.12 0.13 0.23 0.23

1990 0.28 0.28 0.12 0.12 0.23 0.231995 0.25 0.25 0.14 0.14 0.21 0.212000 0.22 0.21 0.16 0.15 0.19 0.182005 0.20 0.19 0.14 0.14 0.18 0.172007 0.19 0.18 0.13 0.13 0.17 0.162010 0.17 0.16 0.13 0.13 0.17 0.162015 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.15 0.14

38

Table9

InternationalInequalityinLiteracy,1870-2015:

TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica(MLD)(KakwaniIndices)

Excluding Excluding


1870 1.14 1.12 1.151880 1.03 1.10 1.021890 1.02 1.11 1.001900 1.04 1.08 1.011913 1.02 0.97 0.971925 1.00 0.85 0.961929 0.99 0.82 0.951933 0.95 0.78 0.901938 0.85 0.76 0.791950 0.69 0.69 0.581955 0.61 0.62 0.521960 0.56 0.59 0.481965 0.50 0.52 0.431970 0.46 0.47 0.411975 0.43 0.43 0.381980 0.38 0.39 0.351985 0.34 0.35 0.311990 0.28 0.30 0.251995 0.25 0.28 0.232000 0.22 0.25 0.202005 0.20 0.23 0.182010 0.17 0.20 0.142015 0.16 0.19 0.13

39

Table10

InternationalInequalityinGrossEnrolment,1870-2015:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica(MLD)(KakwaniIndices)

Excluding Excluding


1870 1.42 1.05 1.511880 1.43 0.98 1.521890 0.94 0.90 0.971900 1.05 0.79 1.081913 0.92 0.68 0.931925 0.62 0.47 0.611929 0.55 0.44 0.531933 0.56 0.43 0.551938 0.62 0.47 0.601950 0.33 0.38 0.271955 0.25 0.30 0.191960 0.19 0.25 0.141965 0.17 0.23 0.131970 0.15 0.19 0.111975 0.13 0.16 0.091980 0.11 0.13 0.091985 0.11 0.13 0.101990 0.12 0.14 0.111995 0.14 0.17 0.122000 0.16 0.19 0.132005 0.14 0.17 0.132010 0.13 0.16 0.122015 0.12 0.16 0.11

40

Table11

InternationalInequalityinYearsofSchooling,1870-2015:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica(MLD)(KakwaniIndices)

Excluding Excluding

ActualChinaandIndiaSubSaharanAfrica

1870 0.81 1.47 0.821880 1.32 1.44 1.341890 1.38 1.39 1.411900 1.09 1.26 1.071913 1.39 0.83 1.401925 1.16 0.69 1.151929 1.01 0.63 1.001933 0.88 0.59 0.861938 0.79 0.55 0.771950 0.62 0.50 0.601955 0.53 0.48 0.501960 0.48 0.46 0.451965 0.42 0.43 0.391970 0.39 0.41 0.371975 0.36 0.40 0.341980 0.32 0.35 0.291985 0.26 0.30 0.241990 0.23 0.29 0.221995 0.21 0.26 0.192000 0.19 0.25 0.172005 0.18 0.23 0.152010 0.17 0.22 0.152015 0.15 0.19 0.13

41

Table12

DecomposingInternationalInequalityinLiteracy(population-weighted):MLDandTheil(KakwaniIndices)

MLD


Theil


1870 0.27 0.54 0.87 0.14 0.491880 0.27 0.51 0.84 0.13 0.501890 0.26 0.52 0.84 0.13 0.521900 0.30 0.47 0.81 0.12 0.631913 0.27 0.47 0.79 0.10 0.591925 0.29 0.43 0.76 0.07 0.691929 0.33 0.39 0.75 0.06 0.751933 0.34 0.34 0.71 0.06 0.731938 0.38 0.25 0.64 0.05 0.731950 0.32 0.18 0.50 0.04 0.561955 0.31 0.15 0.46 0.03 0.511960 0.32 0.12 0.43 0.03 0.501965 0.27 0.13 0.39 0.02 0.421970 0.26 0.12 0.38 0.02 0.401975 0.25 0.11 0.36 0.02 0.371980 0.24 0.10 0.34 0.01 0.341985 0.22 0.09 0.30 0.01 0.301990 0.16 0.09 0.25 0.01 0.221995 0.15 0.07 0.23 0.01 0.202000 0.13 0.05 0.19 0.00 0.172005 0.12 0.05 0.18 0.00 0.162010 0.11 0.03 0.15 0.00 0.142015 0.11 0.03 0.14 0.00 0.14

42

Table13DecomposingInternationalInequalityinGrossEnrolment(population-weighted):

MLDandTheil(KakwaniIndices)

MLD


1870 0.51 0.79 1.42 0.09 0.611880 0.69 0.66 1.43 0.08 0.841890 0.41 0.47 0.94 0.06 0.491900 0.57 0.43 1.05 0.06 0.701913 0.55 0.35 0.92 0.04 0.681925 0.39 0.22 0.62 0.06 0.471929 0.34 0.20 0.55 0.04 0.411933 0.40 0.16 0.56 0.04 0.481938 0.56 0.08 0.62 0.04 0.691950 0.24 0.09 0.33 0.04 0.281955 0.18 0.06 0.25 0.04 0.221960 0.16 0.04 0.19 0.04 0.181965 0.15 0.03 0.17 0.07 0.161970 0.12 0.03 0.15 0.02 0.141975 0.11 0.02 0.13 0.01 0.131980 0.09 0.02 0.11 0.00 0.111985 0.09 0.02 0.11 0.02 0.101990 0.09 0.03 0.12 0.03 0.101995 0.08 0.06 0.14 0.06 0.092000 0.10 0.06 0.16 0.03 0.112005 0.09 0.05 0.14 0.03 0.102010 0.07 0.06 0.13 0.03 0.082015 0.07 0.05 0.12 0.02 0.07

Theil


1870 0.22 0.81 1.12 0.08 0.731880 0.28 0.69 1.05 0.07 0.931890 0.21 0.52 0.79 0.05 0.561900 0.27 0.48 0.80 0.05 0.731913 0.27 0.39 0.69 0.04 0.661925 0.25 0.25 0.52 0.06 0.471929 0.22 0.23 0.46 0.04 0.401933 0.26 0.19 0.46 0.03 0.471938 0.42 0.09 0.50 0.04 0.671950 0.16 0.11 0.27 0.04 0.241955 0.12 0.07 0.20 0.03 0.171960 0.11 0.05 0.15 0.04 0.141965 0.11 0.03 0.14 0.06 0.131970 0.10 0.03 0.13 0.02 0.131975 0.09 0.02 0.11 0.01 0.111980 0.08 0.02 0.09 0.00 0.101985 0.08 0.03 0.10 0.02 0.091990 0.08 0.04 0.12 0.03 0.101995 0.08 0.07 0.15 0.06 0.082000 0.09 0.07 0.16 0.03 0.112005 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.03 0.102010 0.07 0.07 0.14 0.03 0.092015 0.07 0.06 0.13 0.02 0.08

43

Table14DecomposingInternationalInequalityinYearsofSchooling(population-weighted):

MLDandTheil(KakwaniIndices)

MLD


1870 0.63 0.20 0.81 0.29 0.941880 0.86 0.46 1.32 0.28 1.121890 0.90 0.48 1.38 0.25 1.211900 0.59 0.48 1.09 0.19 0.771913 0.86 0.53 1.39 0.13 1.051925 0.76 0.40 1.16 0.10 0.931929 0.67 0.34 1.01 0.09 0.821933 0.58 0.30 0.88 0.09 0.711938 0.53 0.27 0.79 0.09 0.631950 0.41 0.21 0.62 0.08 0.491955 0.34 0.18 0.53 0.08 0.401960 0.31 0.17 0.48 0.08 0.361965 0.27 0.15 0.42 0.09 0.301970 0.25 0.14 0.39 0.10 0.281975 0.23 0.13 0.36 0.11 0.261980 0.21 0.11 0.32 0.11 0.221985 0.18 0.09 0.26 0.10 0.191990 0.15 0.08 0.23 0.08 0.161995 0.14 0.07 0.21 0.07 0.152000 0.13 0.06 0.19 0.05 0.142005 0.11 0.06 0.18 0.04 0.122010 0.10 0.06 0.17 0.04 0.112015 0.09 0.06 0.15 0.03 0.10

Theil


1870 0.41 0.17 0.57 0.26 0.931880 0.46 0.42 0.89 0.25 1.171890 0.42 0.44 0.87 0.22 1.111900 0.33 0.44 0.78 0.19 0.801913 0.34 0.56 0.92 0.13 0.881925 0.32 0.44 0.78 0.09 0.741929 0.31 0.39 0.71 0.08 0.671933 0.30 0.34 0.65 0.08 0.611938 0.29 0.31 0.61 0.08 0.571950 0.26 0.25 0.52 0.07 0.481955 0.24 0.21 0.46 0.07 0.411960 0.23 0.20 0.43 0.07 0.361965 0.20 0.18 0.38 0.08 0.291970 0.19 0.17 0.36 0.09 0.261975 0.18 0.16 0.34 0.10 0.241980 0.17 0.13 0.31 0.10 0.211985 0.15 0.11 0.26 0.10 0.181990 0.13 0.10 0.23 0.08 0.161995 0.12 0.09 0.21 0.07 0.152000 0.11 0.08 0.19 0.05 0.132005 0.10 0.08 0.18 0.04 0.122010 0.09 0.08 0.17 0.04 0.112015 0.08 0.07 0.15 0.02 0.10

44

Table15

InternationalInequalityinLifeExpectancy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndices)

Unweighted

Populationweighted


45

Table16

InternationalInequalityinLifeExpectancy,1870-2015:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica(MLD)(KakwaniIndices)

Excluding Excluding

ActualChinaandIndiaSubSaharanAfrica

1870 0.22 0.20 0.231880 0.24 0.21 0.241890 0.30 0.25 0.311900 0.35 0.26 0.361913 0.39 0.25 0.391925 0.41 0.24 0.411929 0.24 0.23 0.241933 0.23 0.21 0.221938 0.20 0.19 0.201950 0.16 0.16 0.151955 0.15 0.14 0.141960 0.20 0.14 0.201965 0.10 0.12 0.091970 0.08 0.10 0.071975 0.08 0.09 0.061980 0.07 0.08 0.051985 0.06 0.08 0.041990 0.06 0.08 0.041995 0.07 0.09 0.042000 0.07 0.10 0.042005 0.08 0.11 0.052010 0.08 0.11 0.052015 0.06 0.09 0.04

46

Table17

PopulationGrowthDispersion:ContributiontoLifeExpectancyInequality(population-weightedMLDandTheil)(Kakwaniindices)

MLD

Theil

Actual FixedInitialPopulation Actual FixedInitialPopulation1870 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.241880 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.261890 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.321900 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.351913 0.39 0.40 0.37 0.39

1913 0.39 0.39 0.37 0.371925 0.41 0.41 0.37 0.371929 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.241933 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.231938 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.201950 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.16

1950 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.171955 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.151960 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.191965 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.101970 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.081975 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.071980 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.061985 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.061990 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

1990 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.061995 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.062000 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.062005 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.072007 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.072010 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.072015 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

47

Table18

DecomposingInternationalInequalityinLifeExpectancy(population-weighted):MLDandTheil(KakwaniIndices)

MLD


1870 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.04 0.081880 0.08 0.15 0.24 0.04 0.091890 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.03 0.121900 0.14 0.21 0.35 0.02 0.161913 0.16 0.22 0.39 0.02 0.201925 0.20 0.21 0.41 0.02 0.241929 0.09 0.15 0.24 0.01 0.111933 0.09 0.14 0.23 0.01 0.101938 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.01 0.091950 0.10 0.07 0.16 0.01 0.121955 0.09 0.06 0.15 0.00 0.111960 0.13 0.07 0.20 0.00 0.161965 0.07 0.03 0.10 0.00 0.081970 0.06 0.02 0.08 0.00 0.071975 0.06 0.02 0.08 0.00 0.061980 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.051985 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.051990 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.051995 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.052000 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.062005 0.06 0.02 0.08 0.00 0.062010 0.06 0.02 0.08 0.00 0.062015 0.05 0.02 0.06 0.01 0.05

Theil


1870 0.07 0.17 0.25 0.04 0.091880 0.08 0.18 0.26 0.03 0.111890 0.09 0.23 0.32 0.03 0.151900 0.10 0.25 0.35 0.02 0.191913 0.11 0.25 0.37 0.02 0.231925 0.13 0.24 0.37 0.01 0.251929 0.07 0.17 0.25 0.01 0.121933 0.07 0.16 0.23 0.01 0.111938 0.06 0.15 0.21 0.01 0.101950 0.08 0.08 0.16 0.01 0.131955 0.08 0.07 0.15 0.00 0.121960 0.11 0.08 0.19 0.00 0.171965 0.06 0.04 0.10 0.00 0.081970 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.00 0.071975 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.061980 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.051985 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.051990 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.051995 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.052000 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.062005 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.062010 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.062015 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.01 0.05

48

Table19

InternationalInequalityinHumanDevelopment,1870-2015

Unweighted

Populationweighted


49

Table20

PopulationGrowthDispersion:ContributiontoHumanDevelopmentInequality(population-weightedMLDandTheil)(Kakwaniindices)

MLD

Theil

Actual


FixedInitialPopulation

1870 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.521880 0.55 0.55 0.52 0.521890 0.59 0.58 0.53 0.541900 0.61 0.61 0.53 0.541913 0.51 0.51 0.44 0.46

1913 0.51 0.51 0.44 0.441925 0.44 0.44 0.38 0.381929 0.33 0.33 0.31 0.301933 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.271938 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.261950 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22

1950 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.221955 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.201960 0.20 0.21 0.20 0.201965 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.151970 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.131975 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.121980 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.111985 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.101990 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09

1990 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.091995 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.082000 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.072005 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.072010 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.062015 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

50

Table21

InternationalInequalityinHumanDevelopment,1870-2015:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica(MLD)

Actual

ExcludingChinaandIndia

ExcludingSubSaharanAfrica

1870 0.53 0.41 0.541880 0.55 0.41 0.561890 0.59 0.43 0.601900 0.62 0.42 0.621913 0.51 0.31 0.521925 0.45 0.26 0.451929 0.33 0.24 0.321933 0.29 0.22 0.281938 0.27 0.21 0.271950 0.23 0.19 0.231955 0.20 0.18 0.191960 0.20 0.17 0.201965 0.15 0.16 0.141970 0.14 0.14 0.131975 0.12 0.14 0.111980 0.11 0.12 0.101985 0.10 0.11 0.081990 0.09 0.11 0.081995 0.08 0.11 0.072000 0.08 0.11 0.062005 0.08 0.10 0.062010 0.07 0.10 0.052015 0.06 0.09 0.04

51

Table22

DecomposingInternationalInequalityinHumanDevelopment(population-weighted):MLDandTheil

MLD


Theil


1870 0.16 0.36 0.53 0.05 0.311880 0.16 0.35 0.53 0.04 0.341890 0.17 0.36 0.54 0.04 0.361900 0.17 0.35 0.54 0.04 0.371913 0.15 0.28 0.45 0.03 0.311925 0.15 0.23 0.39 0.02 0.281929 0.11 0.19 0.31 0.02 0.201933 0.11 0.17 0.28 0.02 0.181938 0.11 0.15 0.26 0.02 0.171950 0.11 0.11 0.22 0.02 0.171955 0.10 0.10 0.19 0.02 0.151960 0.10 0.09 0.20 0.01 0.151965 0.08 0.07 0.15 0.01 0.111970 0.07 0.06 0.13 0.01 0.101975 0.07 0.05 0.12 0.01 0.091980 0.06 0.05 0.11 0.01 0.081985 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.01 0.071990 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.01 0.061995 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.01 0.062000 0.04 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.052005 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.01 0.052010 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.00 0.052015 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.00 0.04

52

Table23

Dimensions’ContributionstoHumanDevelopmentInequality

(population-weighted):MLDandTheilMLD

LifeExpectancy YearsofSchooling AdjustedIncome Residual1870 0.07 0.27 0.01 0.181880 0.08 0.44 0.01 0.021890 0.10 0.46 0.01 0.021900 0.12 0.36 0.02 0.121913 0.13 0.46 0.02 -0.101925 0.14 0.39 0.02 -0.101929 0.08 0.34 0.02 -0.111933 0.08 0.29 0.02 -0.091938 0.07 0.26 0.02 -0.081950 0.05 0.21 0.03 -0.061955 0.05 0.18 0.02 -0.051960 0.07 0.16 0.02 -0.051965 0.03 0.14 0.02 -0.041970 0.03 0.13 0.02 -0.041975 0.02 0.12 0.02 -0.041980 0.02 0.11 0.02 -0.041985 0.02 0.09 0.02 -0.031990 0.02 0.08 0.02 -0.021995 0.02 0.07 0.01 -0.022000 0.02 0.06 0.01 -0.022005 0.03 0.06 0.01 -0.022010 0.03 0.06 0.01 -0.022015 0.02 0.05 0.01 -0.02

Theil

LifeExpectancy YearsofSchooling AdjustedIncome Residual1870 0.08 0.19 0.01 0.251880 0.09 0.30 0.01 0.131890 0.11 0.29 0.01 0.131900 0.12 0.26 0.02 0.141913 0.12 0.31 0.02 0.001925 0.12 0.26 0.02 -0.021929 0.08 0.24 0.02 -0.031933 0.08 0.22 0.02 -0.031938 0.07 0.20 0.02 -0.031950 0.05 0.17 0.03 -0.031955 0.05 0.15 0.02 -0.031960 0.06 0.14 0.02 -0.031965 0.03 0.13 0.02 -0.031970 0.03 0.12 0.02 -0.031975 0.02 0.11 0.02 -0.031980 0.02 0.10 0.02 -0.031985 0.02 0.09 0.02 -0.031990 0.02 0.08 0.02 -0.021995 0.02 0.07 0.01 -0.022000 0.02 0.06 0.01 -0.022005 0.02 0.06 0.01 -0.022010 0.02 0.06 0.01 -0.022015 0.02 0.05 0.01 -0.02

53

Figure1a.UnweightedInequalityinRealPerCapitaGDP,1870-2015

Figure1b.Population-weightedInequalityinRealPerCapitaGDP,1870-2015

54

Figure2.Population-weightedInequalityinRealGDPperHead:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica,1870-2015(MLD)

55

Figure3a.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinRealPerCapitaGDP,1870-2015(MLD).

Figure3b.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinRealPerCapitaGDP,1870-2015(Theil).

56

Figure4a.UnweightedInequalityinLiteracy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)

Figure4b.Population-weightedInequalityinLiteracy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)

57

Figure5a.UnweightedInequalityinEnrolment,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)

Figure5b.PopulationweightedInequalityinEnrolment,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)

58

Figure6a.UnweightedInequalityinYearsofSchooling,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)

Figure6b.Population-weightedInequalityinYearsofSchooling1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)

59

Figure7a.Population-weightedInequalityinLiteracy:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(MLD)

Figure7b.Population-weightedInequalityinEnrolment:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(MLD)

Figure7c.Population-weightedInequalityinYearsofSchooling:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(MLD)

60

Figure8a.Population-weightedInequalityinLiteracy(Gini):KakwaniIndexandOriginalValues

Figure8b.Population-weightedInequalityinEnrolment(Gini):KakwaniIndexandOriginalValues

Figure8c.Population-weightedInequalityinSchoolingYears(Gini):KakwaniIndexandOriginalValues

61

Figure9a.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinLiteracy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(MLD)

Figure9b.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinLiteracy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(Theil)

62

Figure10a.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinEnrolment,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(MLD).

Figure10b.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinEnrolment,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(Theil)

63

Figure11a.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinYearsofSchooling,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(MLD)

Figure11b.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinYearsofSchooling,1870-2015((KakwaniIndex)(Theil)

64

Figure12a.UnweightedInequalityinLifeExpectancy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)

Figure12b.Population-weightedInequalityinLifeExpectancy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)

65

Figure13.Population-weightedinLifeExpectancy:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(MLD)

Figure14.Population-weightedInequalityinLifeExpectancy(Gini):KakwaniIndexandOriginalValues

66

Figure15a.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinLifeExpectancy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(MLD)

Figure15b.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinLifeExpectancy,1870-2015(KakwaniIndex)(Theil)

67

Figure16a.Lifeexpectancy:Population-weightedInequality(Gini)versusLevel(Kakwaniindices)

Figure16bLifeExpectancyPopulation-weightedInequality(Gini)versusLevel(originalvalues)

68

Figure17a.UnweightedInequalityinHumanDevelopment1870-2015

Figure17b.Population-weightedInequalityinHumanDevelopment,1870-2015

69

Figure18.Population-weightedInequalityinHumanDevelopment:TheContributionofChinaandIndiaandSubSaharanAfrica,1870-2015(MLD)

70

Figure19a.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinHumanDevelopment,1870-2015(MLD)

Figure19b.DecomposingPopulation-weightedInequalityinHumanDevelopment,1870-2015(Theil)

71

Figure20a.Dimensions’ContributionstoHumanDevelopmentInequality(population-weighted):MLD

Figure20b.Dimensions’ContributionstoHumanDevelopmentInequality(population-weighted):Theil

72

Figure21.Population-weightedInequalityinHumanDevelopmentandRealPerCapitaGDP,1870-2015(MLD)

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