New Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic …cepr.org/PRESS/Dating-Committee-Findings-22-September... · 2019. 11. 18. · Euro area GDP has slowed down since

Business Cycle Dating Committeeof the

Centre for Economic Policy Research

Michael ArtisFabio Canova

Jordi GaliFrancesco Giavazzi

Richard Portes (President, CEPR)Lucrezia Reichlin (Chair)

Harald UhligPhilippe Weil

Embargo: 11.00 GMT, 12.00 BST, 13.00 CET, Monday 22nd Sept 2003

1. The CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee

The Centre for Economic Policy Research has formed a committee to set the dates ofthe euro area business cycle. Its mission is to establish the chronology of recessionsand expansions of the 11 original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998 and of the euro area as a whole from 1999 onwards. The euro area currentlyincludes Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain.

In determining the chronology of the euro area business cycle, the CEPR BusinessCycle Dating Committee has decided to adopt a definition of a recession similar tothat used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which has for manyyears dated the US business cycle. We have had to adapt the NBER definition,however, to reflect specific features of the euro area. Thus the Committee defines arecession as a significant decline in the level of economic activity, spread across theeconomy of the euro area, usually visible in two or more consecutive quarters ofnegative growth in GDP, employment and other measures of aggregate economicactivity for the euro area as a whole, and reflecting similar developments in mostcountries. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity andends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy isformally in an expansion; between peak and trough it is in a recession. In both cases,growth rates may be very low.

The CEPR Committee’s task is significantly different from that of the NBER. Theeuro area groups together a set of different countries. Although subject to a commonmonetary policy since 1999, they even now have heterogeneous institutions andpolicies. Moreover, European statistics are of uneven quality, long time series are notavailable, and data definitions differ across countries and sources.

Dating Committee Findings 22 September 2003 1

These differences explain why some of the CEPR criteria for dating business cyclesdiffer from those used by the NBER:

• Unlike the NBER for the US, the CEPR committee dates in terms ofquarters rather than months. Currently, the most reliable European datafor our purposes, and those around which a reasonable consensus canbe achieved, are the quarterly series.

• The Committee analyses euro area aggregate statistics, but it alsomonitors country statistics to make sure that expansions or recessionsare widespread over the countries of the area. There is no fixed rule bywhich country information is weighted.

• The Committee views real GDP (euro area aggregate, as well asnational) as the main measure of macroeconomic activity, but it alsolooks at additional macroeconomic variables, for several reasons. First,euro area GDP series constructed for the pre-EMU era reflect not onlymovements in economic activity but also changes in exchange rates,which are problematic. Second, GDP statistics are sometimes subject tolarge subsequent revisions, and this makes them an imperfect indicatorof current business cycle conditions. Third, measured GDP does notalways move in parallel with its individual major components (whichmay indeed be moving in different directions) or other macroeconomicaggregates such as employment. Fourth, these variables are known todisplay more cyclicality than GDP and are useful in strengtheningopinions when the GDP data do not seem very decisive. They are alsoavailable (with the exception of investment) earlier and at a higherfrequency than GDP.

• For recent euro area data (since the end of the 1990s) we use, wherepossible, official Eurostat statistics and focus primarily but notexclusively on (1) quarterly GDP (Eurostat source); (2) quarterlyemployment (OECD); (3) monthly industrial production (Eurostat); (4)quarterly business investment (Eurostat); (5) consumption and its maincomponents (Eurostat and ECB). For country data, we use Eurostat andOECD sources and monitor Germany, France and Italy systematically.

• Historical euro area data since the 1970s are provided by the OECDand the ECB. We mainly use the ECB source. For national data, wehave used the OECD and the IMF.

• We do not use a fixed rule to weight different data series, although wegive primary emphasis to GDP.

• The committee informally assesses the depth, duration and severity of arecession. Hence although recessions are usually characterized by atleast two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, this is not a fixedrule.


2. The euro area business cycle since 1970

The Committee has identified the following cyclical episodes since 1970, with peaksand troughs dated as follows:

PEAK TROUGH1974q3 1975q11980q1 1982q31992q1 1993q3

Table 1. Chronology of euro area business cycles

Thus the Committee has identified three recessions: 1974q3 to 1975q1, 1980q1 to1982q3, and 1992q1 to 1993q3.

Figure 1 shows the level of real GDP (seasonally adjusted) from 1970 to 1998according to two alternative GDP series constructed by the OECD and the ECB(denoted by FHM – see below). Shaded bands indicate recessions.

For the same period, we also report key series plotted together with GDP: investment(Figure 2) and Employment (Figure 3). Figures 4a-4c, 5a-5c, and 6a-6c plot GDP,investment, employment and industrial production for France, Germany and Italy.

These data underpin the following analysis of the nature of the recessions identifiedby the Committee:

• Two of the three recessions we have declared – in the 1970s and 1990s– are pronounced and also synchronized across countries and variables.In both periods employment, investment and industrial productiondeclined with GDP.

• The third recession, in the 1980s, exhibits different and specificcharacteristics. The recession in terms of aggregate output is milder butlonger. GDP does not decline sharply but rather stagnates for almostthree years. Our dating is thus based on the behaviour of employmentand investment which, unlike GDP, declined sharply during the period.In this episode, we also observe more heterogeneity in output dynamicsacross the three large economies than in the other two recessions. Thataffects our designation of the date of the trough, in particular.

• As to recent years, the Committee judges that, based on currentlyavailable data, it would be premature to declare a peak (and hence asubsequent recession). There is still much uncertainty, as we discuss inthe next section.


3. The euro area since 2001

The role of the Committee is to establish the chronology of recessions andexpansions, not to forecast, nor even to characterize the current conjuncture. Thismeans that it may be necessary to wait until well after the event to declare a peak ortrough in economic activity. The recent period is a case in which caution is clearlyrequired.

Euro area GDP has slowed down since the first quarter of 2001. A weak resurgence ofpositive growth at the beginning of 2002 seems to have come to a new halt.Employment has grown somewhat, while industrial production, after having fallensharply in 2001, shows weak signs of recovery (see Figures 7, 8 and 9). Investmenthas been declining for more than two years, but government consumption rose 2.2%in 2001 and 2.7% in 2002 (ECB Statistics Pocketbook, September 2003).

Figure 10 compares euro GDP in recent years with the 1980s recession bynormalizing GDP in 2001q1 and euro GDP in 1980q1 (beginning of the 1980srecession) to 1. Qualitatively, there are some resemblances between the behaviour ofGDP now and then, although no sharp fall has been recorded in the recent period, norhave we seen recently more than a single quarter’s decline in sequence. And unlikethe 1980s episode, employment is not declining. Figures 11, 12, and 13 provide GDPinformation about France, Germany and Italy.

Based on currently available data, our current judgment is therefore that the euro areahas been experiencing a prolonged pause in the growth of economic activity, ratherthan a full-fledged recession as we have defined it. The picture may of course changeas revised GDP statistics appear.

4. Europe and the US

A comparison between the recent US and euro-area experiences shows someinteresting differences and illustrates further why we cannot declare a euro-arearecession for the recent period. Current NIPA data show a peak in US GDP in 2000q4(compare the NBER date of March 2001). According to these data, GDP declined forthree consecutive quarters (though 2001q3). The cumulative decline over that periodwas -0.62%. Cumulative GDP growth from 2000q4 through 2003 was 4.12%. Thecorresponding numbers for employment (over age 16, measured month middle ofquarter) have been -0.75% and +0.14%.

Now consider the euro area, taking 2001q1 as the base period (growth was positiveand robust in that quarter, unlike the US). The cumulative change of euro area GDPfrom 2001q1 through 2001q4 was +0.1%. Cumulative GDP growth from 2001q1through 2003q2 was +1.1%. The corresponding numbers for employment (based ondata in ECB Monthly Bulletin) are +0.5% and +0.76% (the latter through 2003q1).

Thus the euro-area economy has essentially stagnated since 2001q1, and we have


observed neither the sharp (though short) decline in GDP that the US experienced northe US recovery. This appears to repeat the pattern seen in the 1980s: euro-area GDPis less volatile than that of the US. Note also that employment in the euro area hascontinued to grow somewhat (although more slowly than in the 1990s), whereas thatin the US has not.

Looking back at historical business cycle data, it should be noticed that there is noclear pattern of lead-lag relation between the US and the Euro area. The 1970srecessions are synchronized, while in the 1990s the US recession led the Europeanrecession. In the 1980s, the euro area output behaviour was smoother than in the US:the Euro area experienced a long mild recession, while the US had two short sharperrecessions. Finally, as discussed above, while in recent years the US experienced arecession and is now showing a recovery (the NBER has dated both a peak and atrough for the US in 2001), current signals from the Euro area are mixed (see Figure14).

Figures 15 to 17 report US GDP and some other key macroeconomic variables. Peaksand troughs are more clearly synchronized across variables in the US than in the euroarea.


5. Data sources5.1. Historical data (1970-1998)

5.1.1. Euro area GDP, investment and employment are from the data set constructedat the ECB by Fagan et al.1 (FHM). This data set includes national account data andlabor market data. We also use GDP statistics from OECD Quarterly NationalAccounts Database (Gross domestic product /GDP by Expenditure,Comparable Table/Constant prices,constant PPPs,OECD base,annual rates SA).

5.1.2. Large countriesThe sources are OECD Quarterly National Accounts (QNA), Main EconomicIndicators (MEI) and Quarterly Labor Force Statistics (QLF):

• Gross domestic product /GDP by Expenditure,Comparable Table /Volumeindex,OECD base,SA /1995=100. Source: QNA.

• Gross fixed capital formation /GDP by Expenditure,Comparable Table/Volume index,OECD base,SA /1995=100. Source: QNA.

• Civilian employment index sa/Index publication base SA /CivilianEmployment (survey)All persons/Levels/All ages. Source: QLF.

• Industrial production ISIC C-E sa/Index publication base SA/Production/Production by economic activity /1995Y. Source: MEI.

The only exception is GDP for Germany. Since the OECD series starts only afterreunification, we use statistics from the IMF (GDP Gdp Vol. (1995=100) /IndexNumber /Base year: 1995 /averages /constant prices).

5.2. Period 1999 to present

Euro area GDP (constant price and seasonally adjusted), investment (gross fixedcapital formation, constant price and seasonally adjusted) and industrial production(seasonally adjusted) series are from Eurostat. Euro area employment is the indexpublished by OECD (Main Economic Indicators; calculation from labour forcesample surveys )Large countries’ GDPs are from Eurostat (constant price and seasonally adjusted).

5.3. US data

Real Gross Domestic Product [Billions of chained (1996) dollars] Seasonally adjustedat annual rates, Table 1.2., Line 1, Bureau of Economic Analysis.Gross private domestic investment [Billions of chained (1996) dollars] Seasonallyadjusted at annual rates, Table 1.2., Line 6, Bureau of Economic Analysis.Employment: Total Nonfarm Employment - Seasonally Adjusted, Bureau of LaborStatisticsIndustrial Production, NBER website.

1http://www.ecb.int/pub/wp/ecbwp042.zip


6. Figures

Q 1/1992

Q 1/1980

Q 3/1974

Q 3/1982

Q 3/1993

Q 1/1975

3.1

3.6

4.1

4.6

5.1

5.6

6.1

Q 1/19

70

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/19

73

Q 1/19

74

Q 1/19

75

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/19

80

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/19

83

Q 1/19

84

Q 1/19

85

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/19

91

Q 1/19

92

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

95

Q 1/19

96

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

103 b

illio

ns o

f dol

lars

FHM

OECD

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1970

Q119

71Q1

1972

Q119

73Q1

1974

Q119

75Q1

1976

Q119

77Q1

1978

Q119

79Q1

1980

Q119

81Q1

1982

Q119

83Q1

1984

Q119

85Q1

1986

Q119

87Q1

1988

Q119

89Q1

1990

Q119

91Q1

1992

Q119

93Q1

1994

Q119

95Q1

1996

Q119

97Q1

1998

Q1

103 b

illi

on

s o

f d

oll

ars

0.15

0.17

0.19

0.21

0.23

0.25

103 b

illi

on

s o

f d

oll

ars

GDP

Investment

1974/Q3

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1970

Q1

1971

Q1

1972

Q1

1973

Q1

1974

Q1

1975

Q1

1976

Q1

1977

Q1

1978

Q1

1979

Q1

1980

Q1

1981

Q1

1982

Q1

1983

Q1

1984

Q1

1985

Q1

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Q1

1987

Q1

1988

Q1

1989

Q1

1990

Q1

1991

Q1

1992

Q1

1993

Q1

1994

Q1

1995

Q1

1996

Q1

1997

Q1

1998

Q1

103

bil

lio

ns

of

do

lla

rs

106

108

110

112

114

116

millio

ns o

f w

ork

ers

GDP

Employment

1974/Q3

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

66

Figure 1 Euro area GDP, 1970-98

Figure 2 Euro area GDP vs investment, 1970-98

Figure 3 Euro area GDP vs emplyment, 1970-98


0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

Q 1/19

70

Q 2/19

71

Q 3/19

72

Q 4/19

73

Q 1/19

75

Q 2/19

76

Q 3/19

77

Q 4/19

78

Q 1/19

80

Q 2/19

81

Q 3/19

82

Q 4/19

83

Q 1/19

85

Q 2/19

86

Q 3/19

87

Q 4/19

88

Q 1/19

90

Q 2/19

91

Q 3/19

92

Q 4/19

93

Q 1/19

95

Q 2/19

96

Q 3/19

97

Q 4/19

98

ind

ex 1

995=

1.0

0

0.72

0.77

0.82

0.87

0.92

0.97

1.02

1.07

1.12

GDP

Investment

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Q 1/19

70

Q 2/19

71

Q 3/19

72

Q 4/19

73

Q 1/19

75

Q 2/19

76

Q 3/19

77

Q 4/19

78

Q 1/19

80

Q 2/19

81

Q 3/19

82

Q 4/19

83

Q 1/19

85

Q 2/19

86

Q 3/19

87

Q 4/19

88

Q 1/19

90

Q 2/19

91

Q 3/19

92

Q 4/19

93

Q 1/19

95

Q 2/19

96

Q 3/19

97

Q 4/19

98

ind

ex 1

995=

1.0

0

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

GDP

Employment1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Q 1/19

70

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/197

3

Q 1/197

4

Q 1/197

5

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/198

0

Q 1/198

1

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/198

3

Q 1/198

4

Q 1/198

5

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/199

0

Q 1/199

1

Q 1/199

2

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

95

Q 1/199

6

Q 1/199

7

Q 1/199

8

ind

ex 1

995=

1.0

0

IP

GDP1974/Q3

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

Figure 4a GDP vs investment, France, 1970-98

Figure 4b GDP vs employment, France, 1970-98

Figure 4c GDP vs industrial production, France, 1970-98


0.45

0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

Q 1/19

70

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/19

73

Q 1/19

74

Q 1/19

75

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/19

80

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/19

83

Q 1/19

84

Q 1/19

85

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/19

91

Q 1/19

92

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

95

Q 1/19

96

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

ind

ex 1

995=

1.00

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

GDP

Investment

1974/Q3

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

0.45

0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

Q 1/19

70

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/19

73

Q 1/19

74

Q 1/19

75

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/19

80

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/19

83

Q 1/19

84

Q 1/19

85

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/19

91

Q 1/19

92

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

95

Q 1/19

96

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

ind

ex 1

995=

1.00

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

GDP

Employment

1974/Q3

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

0.45

0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

Q 1/19

70

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/19

73

Q 1/19

74

Q 1/19

75

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/19

80

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/19

83

Q 1/19

84

Q 1/19

85

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/19

91

Q 1/19

92

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

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Q 1/19

96

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

ind

ex

19

95

=1

.00

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

GDP

IP

1974/Q3

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

Figure 5a GDP vs investment, Germany, 1970-98

Figure 5b GDP vs employment, Germany, 1970-98

Figure 5c GDP vs industrial production, Germany, 1970-98


0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Q 1/19

70

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/19

73

Q 1/19

74

Q 1/19

75

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/19

80

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/19

83

Q 1/19

84

Q 1/19

85

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/19

91

Q 1/19

92

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

95

Q 1/19

96

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

ind

ex 1

995=

1.0

0

0.72

0.77

0.82

0.87

0.92

0.97

1.02

1.07

1.12

GDP

Investment

1974/Q3

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Q 1/19

70

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/19

73

Q 1/19

74

Q 1/19

75

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/19

80

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/19

83

Q 1/19

84

Q 1/19

85

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/19

91

Q 1/19

92

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

95

Q 1/19

96

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

ind

ex 1

995=

1.00

0.93

0.95

0.97

0.99

1.01

1.03

1.05

1.07

1.09

GDP

Employment

1974/Q3

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Q 1/197

0

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/19

73

Q 1/197

4

Q 1/19

75

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/19

80

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/19

83

Q 1/19

84

Q 1/19

85

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/198

7

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/199

1

Q 1/19

92

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

95

Q 1/19

96

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

inde

x 19

95=1

.00

IP

GDP

1974/Q3

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1982/Q3

1992/Q1

1993/Q3

Figure 6a GDP vs investment, Italy, 1970-98

Figure 6b GDP vs employment, Italy, 1970-98

Figure 6c GDP vs industrial production, Italy, 1970-98


1.46

1.48

1.50

1.52

1.54

1.56

1.58

1999

.1

1999

.2

1999

.3

1999

.4

2000

.1

2000

.2

2000

.3

2000

.4

2001

.1

2001

.2

2001

.3

2001

.4

2002

.1

2002

.2

2002

.3

2002

.4

2003

.1

2003

.2

103 b

illi

on

s o

f d

oll

ars

0.310

0.315

0.320

0.325

0.330

0.335

0.340

103

bil

lio

ns

of

do

lla

rs

GDP

Investment

1.46

1.48

1.50

1.52

1.54

1.56

1.58

1999

.1

1999

.2

1999

.3

1999

.4

2000

.1

2000

.2

2000

.3

2000

.4

2001

.1

2001

.2

2001

.3

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.4

2002

.1

2002

.2

2002

.3

2002

.4

2003

.1

2003

.2

103 b

illi

on

s o

f d

oll

ars

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07

1.08

1.09

1.10

ind

ex

19

95

=1

GDP

Employment

1.46

1.48

1.50

1.52

1.54

1.56

1.58

1999

.119

99.2

1999

.319

99.4

2000

.120

00.2

2000

.320

00.4

2001

.120

01.2

2001

.320

01.4

2002

.120

02.2

2002

.320

02.4

2003

.120

03.2

103 b

illio

ns

of d

olla

rs

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

GDP

IP

Figure 7 Euro area GDP vs investment, 1999-2003

Figure 8 Euro area GDP vs employment, 1999-2003

Figure 9 Euro area GDP vs industrial production, 1999-2003


0.99

0.995

1

1.005

1.01

1.015

1.02

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

GDP: 80s Recession

GDP: since 2001 Q1

1.45

1.47

1.49

1.51

1.53

1.55

1.57

1.59

1999

.119

99.2

1999

.319

99.4

2000

.120

00.2

2000

.320

00.4

2001

.120

01.2

2001

.320

01.4

2002

.120

02.2

2002

.320

02.4

2003

.120

03.2

103 b

illio

ns

of

do

llars

0.310

0.315

0.320

0.325

0.330

0.335

0.340

0.345

0.350

0.355

103 b

illio

ns

of

do

llars

Euro Area

France

1.45

1.47

1.49

1.51

1.53

1.55

1.57

1.59

1999

.119

99.2

1999

.319

99.4

2000

.120

00.2

2000

.320

00.4

2001

.120

01.2

2001

.320

01.4

2002

.120

02.2

2002

.320

02.4

2003

.120

03.2

103 b

illio

ns

of

do

llars

0.460

0.465

0.470

0.475

0.480

0.485

0.490

0.495

0.500

103 b

illio

ns

of

do

llars

Euro Area

Germany

Figure 10 Euro area GDP, 1980s vs 2001 onwards

Figure 11 GDP, France vs euro area, 1999-2003

Figure 12 GDP, Germany vs euro area, 1999-2003


1.45

1.47

1.49

1.51

1.53

1.55

1.57

1.59

1999

.119

99.2

1999

.319

99.4

2000

.120

00.2

2000

.320

00.4

2001

.120

01.2

2001

.320

01.4

2002

.120

02.2

2002

.320

02.4

2003

.120

03.2

103 b

illio

ns

of

do

llars

0.240

0.245

0.250

0.255

0.260

0.265

103 b

illio

ns

of

do

llars

Euro Area

Italy

2.3

3.3

4.3

5.3

6.3

7.3

8.3

9.3

Q 1/197

0

Q 2/197

1

Q 3/1972

Q 4/1973

Q 1/197

5

Q 2/197

6

Q 3/197

7

Q 4/197

8

Q 1/198

0

Q 2/198

1

Q 3/198

2

Q 4/198

3

Q 1/198

5

Q 2/198

6

Q 3/198

7

Q 4/1988

Q 1/1990

Q 2/199

1

Q 3/199

2

Q 4/199

3

Q 1/1995

Q 2/1996

Q 3/1997

Q 4/1998

Q 1/2000

Q 2/200

1

Q 3/200

2

103 b

illio

ns

of

do

llars

Euro

US

Euro+US

US GDP

Euro GDP

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

Q 1/19

70

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/19

73

Q 1/19

74

Q 1/19

75

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/19

80

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/19

83

Q 1/19

84

Q 1/19

85

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/19

91

Q 1/19

92

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

95

Q 1/19

96

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

Q 1/19

99

Q 1/20

00

Q 1/20

01

Q 1/20

02

Q 1/20

03

103

bill

ion

s o

f d

olla

rs

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

103

bill

ion

s o

f d

olla

rs

GDP

Investiment

1973/Q4

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1980/Q3

1981/Q3

1982/Q4

1990/Q3

1991/Q1

2001/Q1

2001/Q4

Figure 13 GDP, Italy vs euro area, 1999-2003

Figure 14 Euro and US recessions, 1970-2002

Figure 15 US GDP vs investment, 1970-2003


3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

Q 1/19

70

Q 1/19

71

Q 1/19

72

Q 1/19

73

Q 1/19

74

Q 1/19

75

Q 1/19

76

Q 1/19

77

Q 1/19

78

Q 1/19

79

Q 1/19

80

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/19

82

Q 1/19

83

Q 1/19

84

Q 1/19

85

Q 1/19

86

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/19

91

Q 1/19

92

Q 1/19

93

Q 1/19

94

Q 1/19

95

Q 1/19

96

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

Q 1/19

99

Q 1/20

00

Q 1/20

01

Q 1/20

02

Q 1/20

03

103 b

illio

ns

of

do

llars

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

mill

ion

s o

f w

ork

ers

GDP

Employment

1973/Q4

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1980/Q3

1981/Q3

1982/Q4

1990/Q3

1991/Q1

2001/Q1

2001/Q4

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

Q 1/197

0

Q 1/197

1

Q 1/197

2

Q 1/197

3

Q 1/197

4

Q 1/197

5

Q 1/197

6

Q 1/197

7

Q 1/197

8

Q 1/197

9

Q 1/198

0

Q 1/19

81

Q 1/198

2

Q 1/198

3

Q 1/198

4

Q 1/198

5

Q 1/198

6

Q 1/19

87

Q 1/19

88

Q 1/19

89

Q 1/19

90

Q 1/19

91

Q 1/199

2

Q 1/199

3

Q 1/199

4

Q 1/199

5

Q 1/199

6

Q 1/19

97

Q 1/19

98

Q 1/19

99

Q 1/20

00

Q 1/200

1

Q 1/200

2

Q 1/200

3

103 b

illio

ns

of d

olla

rs

0.45

0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

GDP

IP

1973/Q4

1975/Q1

1980/Q1

1980/Q3

1981/Q3

1982/Q4

1990/Q3

1991/Q1

2001/Q1

2001/Q4

Figure 16 US GDP vs employment, 1970-2003

Figure 17 US GDP vs industrial production, 1970-2003


Documents

New Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic …cepr.org/PRESS/Dating-Committee-Findings-22-September... · 2019. 11. 18. · Euro area GDP has slowed down since