85
Neste Capital Markets Day 19 September 2017 London

Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

NesteCapital Markets Day

19 September 2017London

Page 2: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Agenda

12:30 Delivering profitable growth Matti Lievonen, CEO

13:00 Baltic Sea champion Matti Lehmus, EVP, Oil Products

Panu Kopra, EVP, Marketing & Services

13:40 Break

14:00 Global renewables growth Kaisa Hietala, EVP, Renewable Products

14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our

long term targets

Jyrki Mäki-Kala, CFO

15:00 Concluding remarks Matti Lievonen, CEO

15:05 Break

15:15 Breakout sessions

16:30 Cocktails

2

Page 3: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Speakers

3

Matti Lievonen

(born 1958)

President & CEO, Chair of the Neste Executive Board

B.Sc. (Eng.), eMBA, D.Sc. (Tech.) h.c.

President & CEO since 1 December 2008. Joined the company in 2008. Served as President of the Fine and

Speciality Papers Division at UPM-Kymmene Corporation, and in a number of other senior positions at UPM-

Kymmene 1986–2008, and prior to that at ABB. Member of UPM-Kymmene’s Executive Board 2002–2008. Vice

Chair of the Board of Fortum Corporation, Nynas AB and the Chemical Industry Federation of Finland. Member of

the Board of SSAB AB and the European Business Leaders’ Convention. Member of the Advisory Board of National

Emergency Supply Agency. Member of the Supervisory Board of The Finnish Fair Corporation.

Jyrki Mäki-Kala

(born 1961)

Chief Financial Officer

M.Sc. (Econ.)

Member of the Neste Executive Board since 2013. Joined the company in 2013. Responsible for the Group’s

strategy, financial management, investor relations, and risk management. Served in various business and

corporate financial positions at Kemira (2005–2013). Previously worked for Finnish Chemicals. Chair of the Board

of Directors of Neste Jacobs and member of the Supervisory Board of Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance

Company.

Page 4: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Speakers

4

Matti Lehmus

(born 1974)

Executive Vice President, Oil Products

M.Sc. (Eng.), eMBA

Member of the Neste Executive Board since 2009. Joined the company in 1997. Responsible for the Oil Products

business area. Previously served as Executive Vice President of the Oil Products and Renewables business area

(2011–2014), Executive Vice President of the Oil Products business area (2009–2010), Vice President of the Base

Oils business in the Specialty Products Division (2007–2009), Vice President of Oil Refining Business Development

(2007) and Gasoline Exports and Trading Manager (2004–2007) in the Oil Refining Division. Chair of the Board of

the Finnish Petroleum & Biofuels Association.

Kaisa Hietala

(born 1971)

Executive Vice President, Renewable Products

M.Sc. (Physics), Finland and M.Phil. (Env.Sc.), UK

Member of the Neste Executive Board since 2014. Joined the company in 1998. Responsible for the Renewable

Products business area. Served in several positions at Neste, most recently as Vice President of the Renewable

Fuels business 2011–2014, Vice President of Supply and Commercial Director in Singapore 2008–2011 and

Feedstock Manager in the Renewable Fuels Business operations 2006–2008. Member of the Board of Kemira Oyj.

Page 5: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Speakers

5

Panu Kopra

(born 1972)

Executive Vice President, Marketing & Services

BBA, MBA

Member of the Neste Executive Board since May 2016. Joined the company in 1996. Responsible for Marketing

& Services Business Area in Finland, Baltic Rim and Russia. Previously served as Vice President in Oil Retail

Sales in Finland and Baltic Rim (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim (2010–2014),

General Manager in St. Petersburg Russia (2009), Business Development Manager in Renewable Products

(2007–2008), Sales Director (2006), General Manager in Latvia (2003–2005) and in several other positions in

the company.

Tuomas Hyyryläinen

(born 1977)

Senior Vice President, Emerging Businesses unit

M.Sc. (Econ.)

Member of the Neste Executive Board since 2012. Joined the company in 2012. Responsible for Emerging

Businesses business unit. Previously served as Senior Vice President, responsible for Strategy, New Ventures,

Market Intelligence, and M&A operations (2014-2016) and as Senior Vice President, Strategy (2012–2014).

Prior to that served as Vice President for Strategy at F-Secure and served in various strategy and business

development related positions at Nokia. Member of the Boards of Directors of Nynas AB and Vapo Oy.

Page 6: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Disclaimer

6

The following information contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward-looking statements”. These statements relate to future events or our future financial performance, including, but not limited to, strategic plans, potential growth, planned operational changes, expected capital expenditures, future cash sources and requirements, liquidity and cost savings that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause Neste Corporation’s or its businesses’ actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements. In some cases, such forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “may”, “will”, “could”, “would”, “should”, “expect”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “believe”, “estimate”, “predict”, “potential”, or “continue”, or the negative of those terms or other comparable terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Future results may vary from the results expressed in, or implied by, the following forward-looking statements, possibly to a material degree. All forward-looking statements made in this presentation are based on information presently available to management and Neste Corporation assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation constitutes investment advice and this presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or otherwise to engage in any investment activity.

Page 7: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Deliveringprofitable growth

Matti Lievonen, President & CEO

Page 8: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Baltic Sea

champion

Global

renewables

growth

Clear strategic objectives

8

Page 9: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Delivering on strategy

• Porvoo SDA unit started up as

planned in Q2/2017

• Full transition to One Refinery

model after October 2017

• Reliability program

progressing

• Oil Products additional margin

5.5 USD/bbl in H1/17

• New products and digital

services launched

9

• Debottlenecking towards

3 Mton/a capacity by 2020

• Evaluation of new capacity

investment progressed

• Sluiskil pre-treatment unit to

process lower quality feeds

• Rotterdam Bio-LPG unit under

commissioning

• First Green Hub partnership

with Geneva Airport

• First industrial-scale trial

production in bioplastics

Baltic Sea champion Global renewables growth

Page 10: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Successful strategy implementation driving strong financialperformance

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017*

Group comparable EBIT, MEUR

10 *rolling 12 months

Page 11: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Outperforming the peers

11

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

Neste

Peer group

+82%

+260%

*Peer group: Andeavor (Tesoro), Hellenic Petroleum, Lotos, MOL, Motor Oil Hellas, PKN Orlen, Saras, Tupras, Valero Energy

Relative share price

Page 12: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Strong global

commitment to

Paris agreement

despite planned

US withdrawal

IMO 2020 bunker

regulation to

boost diesel

demand

Oil product

supply and

demand

balanced mid-

term

Solid oil demand

growth continues

Market trends supporting strategy implementation

12

Progressive cities

and companies

as major players

against climate

change

Circular

economy moving

ahead

Page 13: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Renewable

feedstock

availability and

regulation

Technology

neutrality in

regulation

Image of diesel

and implications

for passenger

cars

Long-term

demand pressure

on European oil

refining

Addressing market challenges

13

Protectionism

Business model

transformation

through

digitalization

and services

Page 14: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Businesses at different stages of maturity have different

capability development needs

14

Renewable

Products

Emerging

Businesses

Oil Products and

Marketing & Services

Sta

ge

of

gro

wth

/ m

atu

rity

Age / maturity

Page 15: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Clear ambition for Neste by 2030

Leading global renewables

company with solutions

for decarbonizing road

transport, aviation, and

chemical markets

Conventional businesses

transforming, industry

leader in low-carbon

refining and services

Deeply embedded culture

of renewal

Delivering significant value to shareholders, environment and communities.

15

Page 16: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Aiming at

final

investment

decision by

end 2018

Feasibility

studies to be

finalized by

end 2017

New renewables capacity investment

16

Target to

have new

production

unit

operational

by 2022

Page 17: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Investing in

growth and

productivity

Optimizing

leverage

Paying out

favorable

dividends

Consistent cash allocation strategy

17

Page 18: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Favorable dividend payout – policy upgraded to minimum 50% of comparable net profit

34%

41%

35%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Payout from comparable net profit, %

167 166

256

332

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016

€1.30

per

share

€0.65

per

share

€0.65

per

share

€1.00

per

share

Dividends paid, MEUR

New policy: at least 50%

18

Page 19: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Long-term financial targets – leverage target upgraded

30.0%

37.9%

29.4%

15.4%19.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017

New target: below 40%

ROACE, % (rolling 12 months) Leverage ratio, %

11.7%10.1%

16.3% 16.9% 16.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017

Target: over 15%

19

Page 20: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

The year has continued well and we expect that the year

2017 will be another successful one for Neste.

20

Short-term outlook

Page 21: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Baltic Seachampion

Matti Lehmus, EVP, Oil ProductsPanu Kopra, EVP, Marketing & Services

Page 22: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

22

• Customer satisfaction

increasing, approaching 1st

quartile performance

• Customer delivery performance

increased

• New products

commercialization

• Several digital services

launched

• Porvoo SDA unit started up

according to plan in Q2/17

• Full transition to One Refinery

model after October 2017

• Outsourced power plant

investment progressing and

hydrogen unit completed in

Q4/16

• Reliability program

progressing – Porvoo

utilization 92% in Q2/17

• Process safety performance

improving

• Refinery production cost

stable at 4 USD/bbl

• Oil Products additional

margin 5.5 USD/bbl in H1/17

Delivering on targets

Refinery transformation Operational performance Winning with customers

Page 23: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Business Environment

23

Page 24: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Solid demand growth supports refining business

Product supply

and demand

growth

balanced mid-

term

IMO 2020

bunker fuel

specification

change

Solid global demand

growth continues

24

Page 25: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Solid demand growth in 2017 in both gasoline and diesel

25

0

200

400

600

800

2014 2015 2016 2017

kbpd

+2.2%

+3.2%

+1.4%

+1.7%

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2014 2015 2016 2017

kbpd

Diesel/gasoil growth Jet/kerosine growth

+2.4%

+4.1%+0.6%

+2.5%

-0.6%

+0.8%

+3.3%

+1.1%

Global gasoline annual demand growth Global middle distillates annual demand growth

Source: WoodMackenzie, PIRA, OPEC, EIA, IEA

Page 26: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Balanced supply and demand growth outlook for 2018

26

Global supply demand balance

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 2016 2017

Mbbl

OECD petroleum product inventories

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2016 2017 2018

Range of demand growth estimates

Product demand growth

Refining capacity change + non-refinery supply change

Source: WoodMackenzie, PIRA, OPEC, EIA, IEA

Page 27: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Reference margin above long term average

27

USD/bbl

REB differential vs Brent

Note: Urals Rotterdam vs Brent dated

Reference margin

4.8 4.7

7.7

4.95.6

0

2

4

6

8

2013 2014 2015 2016 1-8/2017

USD/bbl

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

2013 2014 2015 2016 1-8/2017

Page 28: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

28

Key implications of IMO bunker specification change

• Global distillate demand expected to grow by more

than 50 Mton/a (+3%) from 2019 to 2020

• Demand of 0.5% low sulphur fuel oil expected to

be limited by availability

• Stronger cracking refining margins over certain

period – e.g. WoodMackenzie estimates 1.5

USD/bbl impact

Global bunker fuel change 2020 with significant

implications for refining industry

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2019 2020

280

Estimated global marine fuel demand shift 2019-20, Mton

Others <10 Mton

Distillate >100 Mton

ULSFO 50 Mton

HSFO <100 Mton

Source: WoodMackenzie, Neste insights

280

Page 29: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

European distillate demand to grow in spite of decreasing trend in new diesel car sales

29

European distillates demand

outlook 2017-25

Demand growth segments

• Heavy-duty vehicles, +5 Mton

• Bunker +15 Mton

• Aviation +4 Mton

Declining demand segments

• Passenger cars –9 Mton

• Residential use –7 Mton

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2017

Road Gasoil Bunker Aviation Other

Demand growth

+1.1%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2025

Greater European middle

distillate demand, Mton

Source: WoodMackenzie, Greater European data

Change 2017-25, Mton

Page 30: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Alternative fuels growing fast in Baltic Sea home markets

30

0

1

2

3

2017 2021

Biofuel - diesel Biofuel - gasoline

Mton/a

+9%/a

Biofuel demand growth outlook in Baltic Sea market*

*)Finland, Sweden and the Baltic states

Baltic Sea biofuels demand growing

• Ambitious CO2 reduction targets in

Nordics continued

• Growth driven by renewable diesel -

overall product demand forecast flat

• Fragmented markets create

opportunities for Neste’s unique

solutions

Page 31: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

31

Refinery

transformation

Value growth in all business

areas in our home market

Baltic Sea champion

Operational

performance

step change

Winning with

customers

Page 32: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Refinery

transformation

32

Page 33: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

One Refinery development program to be completed in Q4/2017 driving profitability growth

Investment projects

progressing according plan

• Porvoo SDA unit started

up according plan during

Q2 – project completed in

schedule and budget

• Naantali configuration

change to be completed

10/2017

• Targeted EBIT impact 75

MEUR/a on average• Increased productivity

in Production line 4

• Reduced Naantali

maintenance capex and

operating cost

• Increased crude

flexibility

Profitability impact

33

VGO +400 kton/a

Porvoo SDA feed

pretreatment

Porvoo

Production Line 4

VGO import -350

kton/a

Middle distillate

+100 kton/a

HFO -300 kton/a

Naantali

reconfiguration

Page 34: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Further value development

through additional services

Neste provides unique solutions for bunker customers to meet upcoming IMO regulation

34

Upgrading of

fuel oil pool to

increase

additional

margin 2020-

0.1% S

middle

distillate

bunkers

>400 kton

0.1% S fuel

oil bunker

250 kton

0.5% S fuel

oil bunker

750 kton

2015 20202018

Page 35: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Pioneering low carbon refining will drive long term asset development

Co-processing of

advanced low-carbon

feedstocks in

One Refinery

• RED II advanced

feedstock co-processing

• Feedstock access and

purification

• Recycled feedstock co-

processing

Targeting 1 Mton/a

of low carbon

refinery feedstocks

by 2030

35

Page 36: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Operational performance

step change

36

Page 37: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Operational performance improvement program continues

to enhance safety, reliability and cost competitiveness

Ambition

>92%

H1/

2017

92

2016

89

2015

75

2014

83

2013

87

Production costs (USD/bbl)Utilization, Porvoo (%) Process Safety Event Rate (PSER)

H1/2017

4.0

2016

4.2

2015

4.0

2014

5.0

2013

4.8

2013

3.0

Ambition

1.0

H1/

2017

1.8

2016

3.1

2015

2.4

2014

3.0

<

Ambition: flat fixed costs

37

Page 38: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Targeting an annual additional margin over 5.5 USD/bbl

Key additional margin drivers

• Commercialization of new products

and services

• Productivity growth via One Refinery

program and implementation of

productivity investments

• Reliability improvement to minimize

unplanned shutdowns

38

4.85.1

4.0

5.5 5.5

0

5

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017

Additional margin, USD/bbl

Annual target: over 5.5 USD/bbl

Page 39: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Winning with customers

39

Page 40: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Making customer satisfaction competitive edge

Targeting 1st

Quartile

performance,

NPS > 50

in all B2B

segments

30

40

50

60

70

Oil Products and

Renewable Products

Q2/17

Marketing &

Services

Q1/17Q4/16Q3/16Q1/16 Q2/16

B2B customer satisfaction development in retail and wholesale*

Target >50

*by NPS methodology (Net Promoter Score, range -100…+100)

40

Page 41: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Aiming to be industry leader in commercialization of services

41

Payment related services Logistics services Examples of other services

Neste

Truck+

Mobile

payment

Neste

Pre-paid

Logistics &

inventory

service

Neste

Automatic

Re-fuel

Neste

Tank depot

• Neste Fuel Security

• Neste Lube Service Online

• Neste LPG Service

• Customer community

Page 42: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Neste MY Renewable DieselTM sales growing strongly in our key markets

• Neste MY Renewable Diesel, produced 100% from renewable raw materials, offers an easy way to lower emissions

• Neste MY Renewable Diesel is already extensively used in California and Sweden

• Launched in Finland in January 2017 for B2B and B2C customers

42

Page 43: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Global renewablesgrowth

Kaisa Hietala, EVP, Renewable Products

Page 44: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

• Waste and residue share

maintained at 80%

• Expanded to new advanced

raw materials

• Sluiskil pre-treatment unit to

process lower quality

materials

• Share of branded 100%

Neste MY Renewable Diesel

approaching 25% of total

volume

• First Green Hub partnership

with Geneva Airport

• First industrial-scale trial

production in bioplastics

• Debottlenecking towards

3 Mton/a capacity by 2020

proceeding well

• Evaluation of new capacity

investment progressed

• Rotterdam Bio-LPG unit

under commissioning

Delivering on targets

Expanding to new markets

and drop-in solutionsCapacity increase program

Strong waste and residue

feedstock position

44

Page 45: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Business Environment

45

Page 46: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Status and impact of potential regulatory changes in Europe

46

Regulatory topic Probability Impact

EU RED II for 2021–2030 HIGH NEUTRAL

New GHG reduction obligation in

Sweden starting July 2018

HIGH POSITIVE

Biofuel mandate to 20% by 2020 in

Norway

HIGH POSITIVE

Lowering of EU antidumping duties for

Argentinian biodiesel imports

HIGH NEUTRAL

Finnish 30% biofuel target 2030 into law

in 2018

MEDIUM POSITIVE

EU level or other renewable raw

material restrictions

LOW NEGATIVE

Page 47: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Status and impact of potential regulatory changes in US

47

Regulatory topic Probability Impact

EPA Renewable Volume Obligations

(RVO) 2018–2019

HIGH POSITIVE

California Low Carbon Fuel Standard

(LCFS) target for 2030 (10% -> 18%)

HIGH POSITIVE

Antidumping and countervailing duties

for biodiesel imports

HIGH POSITIVE

Blenders Tax Credit re-introduced MEDIUM POSITIVE

Other progressive States to implement

LCFS

MEDIUM POSITIVE

Producers Tax Credit introduced LOW NEGATIVE

Border Adjustment Tax LOW NEGATIVE

Page 48: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Demand growth for renewable diesel continues to be strong both in Europe and North America

48

• Demand for renewable diesel almost doubles to 2021, as conventional biofuels face blending limitations and GHG-based targets spur demand for waste-based renewable diesel

• European demand continues to develop favourably, particularly in the key Nordic markets

• US demand growing as markets at federal and state level support growth to 2021 and beyond

• Biodiesel demand estimated to grow from 28 Mton in 2017 to 33 Mton in 2021

0

2

4

6

8

2017 2021

Nordic countries Rest of Europe North America

>10%/a

Renewable diesel demand, Mton/a

Source: Neste analysis based on Platts, 2017; IEA, 2016

Page 49: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Growing ambition for carbon reduction driving renewablediesel capacity increase

49

• ENI’s Venice refinery conversion

operating and Gela refinery conversion

to commission in 2018

• Total’s La Mede refinery conversion to

start operations in 2018

• Diamond Green Diesel expansion during

2018

2.64.0

1.5

3.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2017 2022

Neste Other

Global HVO capacity estimates, Mton

Neste new

Page 50: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Renewable diesel - effective solution for carbon reductionin cities and fleets

50

• Cities are becoming major players in the battle

against CO2 and air pollution

• Oslo targeting carbon neutrality by 2030,

Helsinki and Stockholm by 2050

• New York, San Francisco, Washington DC,

Vancouver and London target 80% CO2 emission

reduction by 2050

• Progressive companies lead the way towards

sustainable solutions

• Consumers’ responsible choices matter

Page 51: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

• Aviation industry committed to carbon neutral growth

from 2020 onwards globally and regulatory support

emerging both in Europe and US

• Norway 1% Renewable Jet Fuel blend by 2019

• EU – aviation included in REDII proposal

• California – proposal to include aviation in LCFS program

• Jet fuel market expected to grow by 100 Mton within

next 10 years

• Large volume potential; e.g. at London Heathrow 5% of

Renewable Jet Fuel equals 325 kton/a demand

• Role of renewable fuels as carbon reduction measure in

aviation well acknowledged

Aviation preparing for carbon neutral growth

51

Page 52: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Leading companies responding to increasing demand for

sustainable plastics

52

• Bio-plastics market expected to grow

over 40% to 6.1 Mtons by 2021

• 80% of total market expected to be in

durable biobased solutions, which are

growing faster than biodegradable

solutions

• Drop-in solutions have an edge in easy

and fast take up and compatibility with

the existing recycling infrastructure

• Supportive regulation expected, e.g. EU

Circular Economy initiative

“By August 2020, 100% of materials in our plastics

products will be either renewable and/or

recycled” (24% in 2016)

”Replace 20 conventional plastics used with

sustainable materials by 2030”

“100% recycled or otherwise sustainably sourced

materials by 2030”

”Reduce absolute GHG emissions across value

chain by at least 20% by 2030”

“Bioplastics should not have a negative impact on

the global recycling infrastructure via

contaminating traditional materials”

Page 53: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Reference margin reflecting more mature supply demandbalance

53

FAME vs. Palm oil* price differential, USD/ton

SME vs. Palm oil* price differential, USD/ton

European margins driven by

• rapeseed oil price and supply demand balance

• FAME supply demand balance• normalizing CPO price

US margins impacted by

• regulatory uncertainty

• expiry of BTC

• possible SME import duties

0

100

200

300

400

Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

0

100

200

300

400

Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

* Including $70/ton freight

Page 54: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Several actions successfully taken to improve additionalmargin in H2 2017

54

Price

premias

Sales

allocation

Feedstock

optimization

Operations

Standard variable

production cost

Comparable

sales margin

Reference

margin

Additional margin

Page 55: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Capacity

increase

program

Creating next wave of profitable growth

Global renewables growth

Strong global

waste and

residue

feedstock

position

Expanding to

new markets and

solutions

55

Page 56: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Expanding to new

markets and solutions

56

Page 57: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Share of 100% Neste MY Renewable Diesel to

grow from 25% in 2017 to 50% of total sales

volume in 2020

Drivers for Neste MY product strategy:

• Improve profitability and capture premium

product value

• Differentiate from competition and create

additional value with branded offering

• Create end-customer pull by bringing our

sustainability and product promise to

consumers

• Create loyalty with key customers and

strengthen Neste brand in select key markets

57

Neste MY branded offering goes global

Page 58: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

58

Volume

Time

We target 20% of sales outside road traffic by 2020

Aviation

Plastics

and other

chemicals

Page 59: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

• Neste’s Green Hub concept brings together key

stakeholders around airports to enable acceleration of

Renewable Jet Fuel demand growth

• Geneva airport is the first mover with min 1% Neste MY

Renewable Jet Fuel

• Close to 10 partnerships in pipeline globally

59

Neste MY Renewable Jet Fuel taking off

Page 60: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Towards commercial deliveries in bio-based plastics

• First commercial delivery in H1 2018

• New customers and production partners

engaged, 10 global brands in pipeline

• Pilot Technical Fluids with improved

technical properties in 2018

60

Page 61: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

61

Strong global waste and residue feedstock position

Page 62: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

0

10

20

30

2017 2021

Residues from vegetable oil refining

Recycled vegetable oils

Waste fat from meat processingindustry

Strong waste and residue position increases feedstockavailability

62

• Key enablers for Neste to win in the

feedstock game:

• Global sourcing and supply chain

capability in place

• 100% waste and residue processing

capability at current refineries

• Leading pre-treatment development

and innovation to enable use of low

quality waste and residue

Page 63: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Clear roadmap in place to tap into wastes and residues

63

We aim to have access to up to 20% of the

available waste and residue streams by 2021

• Developing traceability and certification

for residues by 2020

• Opening up new feedstock markets in

South America and China

• Developing platforms for feedstock trading

operations

• Investing in new pre-treatment technology

Page 64: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Capacity increase program

64

Page 65: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Capacity increase has successfully delivered growth and increased productivity

65

0

100

200

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Standard variable production cost, USD/ton

0

1000

2000

3000

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017*

* Rolling 12 months

Renewable diesel production, 000 ton

Page 66: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

66

Continue debottlenecking of existing units by 15% to 3 Mton/a by 2020

• Next step Singapore turnaround in 2018

Finalize feasibility studies for a new up to 1 Mton/a capacity by end 2017,

aiming at final investment decision by end 2018

• Target to have new production unit operational by 2022

Capacity increase program continues with concrete

next steps – aiming at 4 million tons capacity by 2022

Page 67: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Aiming at

final

investment

decision by

end 2018

Renewable

diesel and jet

fuel

Feasibility

studies to be

finalized by

end 2017

Capacity

up to

1 Mton/a

New capacity investment scope

67

Pretreatment

for lower

quality raw

materials

Page 68: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets

Jyrki Mäki-Kala, CFO

Page 69: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Step change in financial performance

69

596

965

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2013 H1/2017*

11.7%

16.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2013 H1/2017*

544

859

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2013 2016

Comparable EBIT, MEUR ROACE Net working capital, MEUR

0.65

1.30

0.00

0.40

0.80

1.20

2013 2016

30.0%

19.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2013 H1/2017

759

472

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2013 H1/2017*

Dividend per share, EUR Leverage Free cash flow, MEUR

* Rolling 12 months

Page 70: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Current long-term financial targets have been reached

30.0%

37.9%

29.4%

15.4%

19.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017

Target: 25-50%

ROACE, % (rolling 12 months) Leverage ratio, %

11.7%

10.1%

16.3%16.9%

16.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017

Target: 15%

70

Page 71: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Solid financial performance in Oil Products

71

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017*0

5

10

15

20

25

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017*

Comparable EBIT, MEUR Comparable RONA, %

* Rolling 12 months

Page 72: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Growth trend with high returns in Renewable Products

72

Comparable EBIT, MEUR Comparable RONA, %

* Rolling 12 months

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017* 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017*

Page 73: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

0

10

20

30

40

50

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017*

Marketing & Services – high returns on light assets

73

Comparable EBIT, MEUR Comparable RONA, %

* Rolling 12 months

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017*

Page 74: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

EBITDA as foundation for strong cash flow

74

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Comparable EBIT Comparable EBITDA

Comparable EBIT and EBITDA*, MEUR

* Rolling 12 months

Page 75: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Investments focusing on growth and productivity

75

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Estimate

Turnaround

Growth + productivity

Maintenance

Cash-out capex, MEUR

Page 76: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Net working capital always in focus

76

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 June 2017

NWC, MEUR

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

2014 2015 2016 2017

Group Oil Products

Renewable Products Marketing & Services

Rolling Inventory Turnover, volumes in days

Page 77: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Strong free cash flow generation

77

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017*

Free cash flow, MEUR

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017*

Capital expenditures Dividend paid Debt management

* Rolling 12 months

Use of cash, MEUR

Page 78: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Maturity profile revised

• More balanced maturity profile resulting from

refinancing activities in H1/2017

• Total liquidity at end of June 2017 was EUR

1,872 million

• Cash EUR 222 million

• Unused credit facilities EUR 1,650 million

• Average interest rate for interest-bearing

liabilities was 3.1%* and maturity 5.0 years at

end of June

• No financial covenants in Group companies’

existing loan agreements

MEUR

0

200

400

600

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+

*Average interest rate for interest-bearing liabilities excluding

finance leases was 2.1%

Short-term

Long-term

78

Page 79: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Foreign owners have majority of free float

79

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17

Share of foreign owners, %

50.1 %

30.7 %

9.8 %

9.4 %State of Finland*

Foreign owners

Finnishinstitutions

Finnishhouseholds

Ownership structure as of August 31, 2017

* State plans to reduce ownership to 33.4% over time

Page 80: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Long-term financial targets – leverage target upgraded

30.0%

37.9%

29.4%

15.4%19.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017

New target: below 40%

ROACE, % (rolling 12 months) Leverage ratio, %

11.7%10.1%

16.3% 16.9% 16.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2013 2014 2015 2016 H1/2017

Target: 15%

80

Page 81: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Favorable dividend payout – policy upgraded to minimum 50% of comparable net profit

34%

41%

35%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Payout from comparable net profit, %

167 166

256

332

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016

€1.30

per

share

€0.65

per

share

€0.65

per

share

€1.00

per

share

Dividends paid, MEUR

New policy: at least 50%

81

Page 82: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Strong financials as an enabler

Long-term

target revised

for delivering

profitable

growth

Dividend

policy

upgraded

82

Page 83: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Concludingremarks

Matti Lievonen, President & CEO

Page 84: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Baltic Sea

champion

Global

renewables

growth

Delivering profitable growth

84

Page 85: Neste Capital Markets Day - appspot.com · 14:40 Strong financial performance supporting our long term targets ... (2014–2015), Vice President in Oil Retail Russia and Baltic Rim

Abbreviations

85

B2B Business to business

B2C Business to consumers

BBL Barrel

BTC Blenders Tax Credit in the US

CAPEX Capital expenditure

CPO Crude Palm Oil

EPA US Environmental Protection Agency

FAME Fatty Acid Methyl Ester, biodiesel

GHG Greenhouse gas

HVO Hydrotreated vegetable oil

IMO International Maritime Organization

KBPD Thousand barrels per day

KTPA Thousand tons per year

LCFS Low Carbon Fuel Standard

LPG Liquefied petroleum gas

NPS Net Promoter Score methodology

NWC Net working capital

PSER Process Safety Event Rate per million hours

RFS Renewable Fuel Standard in the US

REB Russian Export Blend crude

RED EU Renewable Energy Directive

ROACE Return on average capital employed after tax

RONA Return on net assets

SBO Soybean Oil

SDA Solvent deasphalting unit

SME Soybean Methyl Ester, biodiesel

VGO Vacuum gasoil