NDT WAR Data and Results

8/12/2019 NDT WAR Data and Results

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/ndt-war-data-and-results 1/38

2.534 Eric Lanning

1.935 Rashid Campbell

1.683 Colin Quinn

1.438 Alex Miles

1.384 Ameena Ruffin

1.352 Ellis Allen

1.334 Melanie Campbell1.325 Brian Kersch

1.291 Andrew Arsht

1.197 Brad Bolman

1.143 Jason Sigalos

1.139 Melvin Washington

1.125 Eli Smith

1.115 Marquis Ard

1.077 Arjun Vellayappan

1.044 Colin McElhinny

1.01 David Herman

1.006 Anna Dimitrijevic

1.003 Kaavya Ramesh

0.994 John Spurlock

The rest are listed in order but not by name. They should be super easy to find under "Final WAR Calculation" in

0.989

0.944

0.938

0.801

0.7970.723

0.716

0.703

0.685

0.678

0.65

0.648

0.582

0.54

0.538

0.524

0.513

0.511

0.495

0.479

0.452

0.442

0.417

0.412





-0.208

-0.234

-0.246

-0.263

-0.28

-0.293

-0.293-0.307

-0.308

-0.323

-0.34

-0.356

-0.368

-0.374

-0.381

-0.4

-0.451

-0.466

-0.467

-0.475

-0.478

-0.492

-0.507

-0.531

-0.535

-0.537

-0.544

-0.551-0.568

-0.569

-0.58

-0.586

-0.594

-0.6

-0.61

-0.622

-0.63

-0.639

-0.666

-0.691

-0.716

-0.72

-0.762

-0.779

-0.801

-0.806

-0.818



-0.826

-0.866

-0.871

-0.903

-0.914

-0.924

-1.01-1.017

-1.085

-1.09

-1.13

-1.134

-1.197

-1.294

-1.319

-1.612

-1.82

-2.576



the final tab



WAR Calculation:

This number took the indivdual's Z2 Speaker point total from the NDT.

It then found the average Z2 Speaker point total there and subtracted

that average from the individual in question. For example, it did (OU

Ca-Average Z2 Speaker point total). That number was then correlatedwith the overall team's wins to determine causation of points versus

wins overall. The result was .803051. Next, the number found above

about relation to average points was divided by ten as is done with

baseball (http://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Baseball-WAR). This

number, once divided, was the raw WAR. Finally, this was multiplied

by the correlation coefficent because, it turns out, that points are not

directly tied to whether or not you win the debate. It should be noted

the ordering of WAR is exactly the same as the speaker list because

only one variable (indivdual's Z2 Speaker point total from the NDT)

was included initially.

Caveats:

1) Super small sample size. This just considered the 2014 NDT

2) I want to include win percentage of the Aff/Neg given people's

positions, but I do not know everyone's positions. This could be WAR 2.0

3) The correlation coefficient should be nuanced by considering

average strength of schedule. That's for a later date, and (as visible) wasstarted but not concluded.

4) Not a stats major. Let me know if any of this is unsound.



Final WAR Calculation:

The final WAR calculation was adjusted to consider the strength of an individual's

partner relative to them as a means to adjust WAR to be more accurate in terms of

predicting the success of a true replacement debater. It started by finding the

difference between the member of a team's indivdual's Z2 Speaker point total. Theresult was then, again, divided by 10. This value labeled as "Relation to Partner/10"

was then multiplied by the correlation coefficent to put the value in common terms

as the original war calculation because the first calculation only considers points

and not how they affect win. This coefficent was .803051 (same as before). Finally,

the result of this process, which is labeled as the "WAR Adjustment Mechanism" was

then added to a debater's WAR. Thus, if someone debate with someone better than

themselves (on a purely speaker-point basis) i.e. MSU RT's Thur, then, they lost some

of their WAR value. This concept of adjusting WAR for skill of partner is rooted in

the baseball version of WAR's calculation of positional adjustment, which assumes

that different positions are harder to play (i.e. being a catcher is harder than 1B). This

is here (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/positional-adjustment/). Thus,

in considering partnerships, my calculation of WAR goes beyond just the list of normal

speakers, which is what the first calculation considered.



WAR Picked:

The Final Adjusted WAR was only

selected when the deviation between

partners in speaker points was greater

than the average of 3.461. Otherwise,

it was considered that the two weretoo close to have a meaningful

difference.

Consider the Above in the future. This

WAS NOT done in this listing



Student Points (NDT-Z2) Points to Average (Z2-687.790 Prelim Wins

OU Ca 706.09 18.3 8

NU Mi 704.2 16.41 7

NU Ve 702.7 14.91 7

Georgetown Ar 702.61 14.82 6

UM Al 701.99 14.2 6

Georgetown Ma 701.36 13.57 6Houston La 701.26 13.47 7

Harvard Bo 701.2 13.41 6

OU Le 700.29 12.5 8

Wake Wa 699.94 12.15 6

Harvard Su 699.7 11.91 6

UM Pa 699.35 11.56 6

Towson Ru 699.1 11.31 6

Rutgers Sm 698.53 10.74 7

Wake Le 697.91 10.12 6

Emory Si 697 9.21 5

KU Ca 696.82 9.03 5

UMW Mc 696.62 8.83 6

MSU Ra 696.62 8.83 6

UWG Ar 696.54 8.75 5

Harvard Di 695.58 7.79 5

Cal Sp 695.27 7.48 4

Rutgers Ra 695.26 7.47 7

Liberty Ed 695.25 7.46 5

Georgetown Mc 694.9 7.11 6

OU Ch 694.43 6.64 5

Liberty Ch 694.27

6.48 5OU Le 694.06 6.27 5

Wake Mi 693.98 6.19 5

Wake Qu 693.45 5.66 5

UNT Ke 693.42 5.63 4

Georgetown En 693.26 5.47 6

Towson Jo 693.17 5.38 6

Cal Se 693.07 5.28 4

Wake Langr 693.06 5.27 4

MSU Th 692.96 5.17 6

Harvard He 692.72 4.93 5

UT Ma 692.61 4.82 5

Vermont Brough 692.57 4.78 4

UMW Pa 692.45 4.66 6

OU Masty 692.26 4.47 5

MN Cr 692.26 4.47 5

OU Baker 692.07 4.28 5

UM Hirn 691.98 4.19 6

Emory Jo 691.98 4.19 5

Wake Duf 691.97 4.18 4



Wayne Mes 691.92 4.13 6

Vermont Broughton 691.72 3.93 4

UWG Mu 691.41 3.62 5

UK Gr 691.09 3.3 4

UNT Qu 691.07 3.28 4

NU Mc 690.95 3.16 5

Harvard Tayl 690.84

3.05 5Cal Mup 690.37 2.58 4

MN Eh 690.34 2.55 5

Wayne Le 690.08 2.29 6

Towson Wh 689.76 1.97 4

UNLV Vel 689.65 1.86 4

UMKC Aj 689.53 1.74 4

Wayne Just 689.52 1.73 2

ISU Iv 689.43 1.64 4

Wayne Slaw 689.42 1.63 2

NU Pei 689.42 1.63 5

UK Ro 689.37 1.58 4

KU Bir 689.24 1.45 5

MSU Ze 689.2 1.41 5

UT Fitz 688.9 1.11 5

MSU Ca 688.73 0.94 5

Cal Wim 688.42 0.63 4

Fresno Tate 688.36 0.57 5

KU Kha 688.26 0.47 5

Iowa K 688.21 0.42 5

Liberty Bobb 688.12 0.33 4

UMKC Fishe 688.09

0.3 4GA Sh 687.96 0.17 4

GA Gal 687.64 -0.15 4

MSU Strong 687.22 -0.57 3

Concordia Bo 687.03 -0.76 4

Wy Pa 686.91 -0.88 3

GA Ca 686.13 -1.66 4

Irvine And 686.11 -1.68 4

Bing Her 685.71 -2.08 3

Emory Saw 685.71 -2.08 3

KU Sch 685.65 -2.14 5

Iowa Han 685.51 -2.28 5

ASU Ra 685.44 -2.35 3

UTD Og 685.23 -2.56 4

Harvard Xu 685.11 -2.68 5

Trinity Ro 685.04 -2.75 3

ISU Do 684.91 -2.88 4

NO Ob 684.71 -3.08 3

NU Sha 684.61 -3.18 3

Fresno hol 684.52 -3.27 5



UM Krak 684.49 -3.3 6

Liberty Mu 684.42 -3.37 4

Bing Red 684.38 -3.41 2

UNLV Rod 684.26 -3.53 4

Bay Boor 684.25 -3.54 3

MSU Bu 684.2 -3.59 3

Emory Klar 684.19

-3.6 3KCKCC Cas 683.96 -3.83 3

GMU Kwon 683.84 -3.95 2

Wy Ma 683.74 -4.05 3

Army Bar 683.64 -4.15 3

ASU Ch 683.64 -4.15 3

USC Purk 683.31 -4.48 3

Bing Sehgal 683.28 -4.51 2

USC Vit 683.26 -4.53 3

UK Gel 683.19 -4.6 3

Houston Raj 683.17 -4.62 7

Iowa Sch 683.17 -4.62 3

UTD Lo 683.08 -4.71 4

GSU Floyd 683.04 -4.75 2

UCO Yo 682.81 -4.98 2

Baylor bacon 682.63 -5.16 3

USC Sai 682.61 -5.18 2

Whit Men 682.6 -5.19 3

UNT Ander 682.55 -5.24 4

Emory Chen 682.28 -5.51 3

Texas Chow 681.82 -5.97 1

Towson thomas 681.76

-6.03 4Bing Cepin 681.76 -6.03 3

KCKCC Gon 681.73 -6.06 3

USC haas 681.66 -6.13 2

UCO Van 681.65 -6.14 2

Texas Mal 681.65 -6.14 1

Iowa Cro 681.61 -6.18 3

JMU Lep 681.52 -6.27 3

UK Varg 681.51 -6.28 3

Trinity So 681.32 -6.47 3

Irvine Pe 681.26 -6.53 4

Rutgers Staf 681.12 -6.67 4

Rutgers H 681.11 -6.68 4

Concordia Snel 681.08 -6.71 4

GA Davis 680.96 -6.83 4

trinity vail 680.67 -7.12 2

Dart Chen 680.53 -7.26 1

GMU Moh 680.39 -7.4 2

Vandy S 680.16 -7.63 3

JMU Bos 679.94 -7.85 2



JMU Miller (Ellie) 679.91 -7.88 3

GSU Finch 679.66 -8.13 2

JMU Miller (Elyssa) 679.56 -8.23 2

Weber hen 679.49 -8.3 2

KSU Ma 679.32 -8.47 2

Dart Singh 679.21 -8.58 2

Army Saker 678.87

-8.92 3Weber Tip 678.79 -9 2

Emory Dean 678.54 -9.25 3

Dart kreus 678.48 -9.31 2

Vandy W 678.35 -9.44 3

Dart Cram 677.1 -10.69 1

KSU Klu 676.77 -11.02 2

Trinity Yor 676.02 -11.77 2

Whit Ba 675.16 -12.63 3

UNT Sa 673.39 -14.4 4





0.413 0.33166 0.184

0.393 0.315599 -0.085

0.362 0.290704 -0.513

0.33 0.265007 0.172

0.328 0.263401 1.768

0.316 0.253764 0.153

0.305 0.244931 -0.4740.258 0.207187 -0.49

0.255 0.204778 -0.192

0.229 0.183899 -0.184

0.197 0.158201 0.8

0.186 0.149367 0.539

0.174 0.139731 0.144

0.173 0.138928 0.01

0.164 0.1317 0.452

0.163 0.130897 -0.01

0.163 0.130897 -0.153

0.158 0.126882 -0.172

0.145 0.116442 -0.758

0.141 0.11323 0.047

0.111 0.089139 -0.371

0.094 0.075487 -0.047

0.063 0.050592 -0.465

0.057 0.045774 0.384

0.047 0.037743 0.261

0.042 0.033728 0.27

0.033 0.026501 0.37

0.03 0.024092 -0.1440.017 0.013652 0.183

-0.015 -0.01205 0.668

-0.057 -0.04577 0.302

-0.076 -0.06103 0.595

-0.088 -0.07067 0.317

-0.166 -0.13331 -0.183

-0.168 -0.13491 0.485

-0.208 -0.16703 0.395

-0.208 -0.16703 0.343

-0.214 -0.17185 -0.261

-0.228 -0.1831 -0.27

-0.235 -0.18872 0.18

-0.256 -0.20558 0.215

-0.268 -0.21522 -0.761

-0.275 -0.22084 0.372

-0.288 -0.23128 -0.452

-0.308 -0.24734 0.01

-0.318 -0.25537 -0.01

-0.327 -0.2626 -0.0384



-0.33 -0.26501 -0.749

-0.337 -0.27063 -0.37

-0.341 -0.27384 0.11

-0.353 -0.28348 -0.539

-0.354 -0.28428 0.162

-0.359 -0.2883 -0.302

-0.36 -0.2891 0.565-0.383 -0.30757 0.223

-0.395 -0.31721 0.345

-0.405 -0.32524 -0.317

-0.415 -0.33327 0.477

-0.415 -0.33327 -0.18

-0.448 -0.35977 0.005

-0.451 -0.36218 -0.11

-0.453 -0.36378 -0.005

-0.46 -0.3694 0.168

-0.462 -0.37101 -1.809

-0.462 -0.37101 0.156

-0.471 -0.37824 -0.215

-0.475 -0.38145 0.338

-0.498 -0.39992 0.116

-0.516 -0.41437 -0.162

-0.518 -0.41598 0.095

-0.519 -0.41678 0.744

-0.524 -0.4208 -1.087

-0.551 -0.44248 -0.343

-0.597 -0.47942 0.017

-0.603 -0.48424 -0.8-0.603 -0.48424 -0.395

-0.606 -0.48665 -0.223

-0.613 -0.49227 -0.095

-0.614 -0.49307 -0.116

-0.614 -0.49307 -0.017

-0.618 -0.49629 -0.156

-0.627 -0.50351 0.161

-0.628 -0.50432 -0.168

-0.647 -0.51957 -0.372

-0.653 -0.52439 -0.485

-0.667 -0.53564 0.001

-0.668 -0.53644 -0.001

-0.671 -0.53885 -0.595

-0.683 -0.54848 -0.668

-0.712 -0.57177 0.465

-0.726 -0.58302 0.343

-0.74 -0.59426 -0.345

-0.763 -0.61273 0.181

-0.785 -0.6304 0.038



-0.788 -0.6328 -0.161

-0.813 -0.65288 -0.338

-0.823 -0.66091 -0.038

-0.83 -0.66653 0.07

-0.847 -0.68018 0.255

-0.858 -0.68902 0.073

-0.892 -0.71632 -0.477-0.9 -0.72275 -0.07

-0.925 -0.74282 -0.565

-0.931 -0.74764 -0.073

-0.944 -0.75808 -0.181

-1.069 -0.85846 -0.343

-1.102 -0.88496 -0.255

-1.177 -0.94519 -0.465

-1.263 -1.01425 -0.744

-1.44 -1.15639 -1.768



WAR Adjustment Mechanism Final WAR Abbrev. Final WAR

0.4657696 1.93535293 1.935

0.120457655 1.438264346 1.438

-0.120457655 1.076891386 1.077

0.100381379 1.290502961 1.291

0.212005473 1.352337893 1.352

-0.100381379 0.989358828 0.9891.452719321 2.534429018 2.534

0.120457655 1.197349046 1.197

-0.4657696 0.53804415 0.538

0.16301936 1.138726325 1.139

-0.012045766 0.944387975 0.944

-0.212005473 0.716321483 0.716

0.476209263 1.384459944 1.384

0.262597688 1.125074462 1.125

-0.16301936 0.649668252 0.65

0.403131619 1.14274159 1.143

0.608712684 1.333867737 1.334

0.334872281 1.043966314 1.044

0.293916678 1.003010711 1.003

0.41196518 1.114634805 1.115

0.38064619 1.006222919 1.006

0.393495007 0.994177155 0.994

-0.262597688 0.337281409 0.337

0.078699001 0.677775047 0.678

0.13170037 0.702669631 0.703

0.189520044 0.722745908 0.723

-0.078699001 0.441678047 0.4420.144549186 0.648062163 0.648

0.042561705 0.539650274 0.54

-0.042561705 0.411965161 0.412

0.872916474 1.325034187 1.325

-0.13170037 0.307568527 0.308

-0.476209263 -0.044167825 -0.044

0.373418731 0.797429659 0.797

0.087532563 0.51074044 0.511

-0.293916678 0.121260689 0.121

0.611121837 1.00702598 1.01

0.297931934 0.685002516 0.685

0.068259338 0.452117716 0.452

-0.334872281 0.039349485 0.039

-0.144549186 0.214414611 0.214

0.154185799 0.513149596 0.513

-0.189520044 0.154185784 0.154

0.601485224 0.937963593 0.938

-0.403131619 -0.06665325 -0.067

-0.087532563 0.248142755 0.248



0.14776139 0.479421453 0.479

-0.068259338 0.247339705 0.247

-0.41196518 -0.121260718 -0.121

0.138124778 0.403131608 0.403

1.419794228 1.683194956 1.683

0.122866808 0.376630924 0.377

-0.38064619 -0.135715635 -0.136-0.393495007 -0.186307849 -0.186

-0.154185799 0.050592206 0.051

-0.14776139 0.036137289 0.036

0.642440827 0.800641874 0.801

0.432844507 0.582211993 0.582

0.115639349 0.255370223 0.255

0.00803051 0.146958333 0.147

0.362979067 0.494679431 0.495

-0.00803051 0.122866803 0.123

-0.122866808 0.008030505 0.008

-0.138124778 -0.01124272 -0.011

-0.608712684 -0.492270289 -0.492

0.037743399 0.15097359 0.151

-0.297931934 -0.208793273 -0.208

-0.037743399 0.037743395 0.038

-0.373418731 -0.322826518 -0.323

0.308371597 0.354145504 0.354

0.20959632 0.247339717 0.247

0.216823779 0.250551921 0.251

0.297128883 0.323629566 0.324

-0.115639349 -0.091547819 -0.0920.146958339 0.160610206 0.161

0.536438091 0.524392326 0.524

0.242521412 0.196747505 0.197

0.477815365 0.416783489 0.417

0.254567178 0.18389869 0.184

-0.146958339 -0.280264805 -0.28

0.389479751 0.254567183 0.255

0.317205158 0.15017055 0.15

0.275446505 0.108411897 0.108

-0.20959632 -0.381449234 -0.381

-0.216823779 -0.399919407 -0.4

0.144549186 -0.044167799 -0.044

0.172655972 -0.032925084 0.033

-0.611121837 -0.826339505 -0.826

0.298734985 0.07789596 0.078

-0.362979067 -0.594257755 -0.594

0.00803051 -0.239309198 -0.293

-0.00803051 -0.263400728 -0.263

-0.03083716 -0.293434837 -0.293



-0.601485224 -0.866492054 -0.866

-0.297128883 -0.56775707 -0.568

0.088335614 -0.185504777 -0.186

-0.432844507 -0.71632151 -0.716

0.130094268 -0.154185786 -0.154

-0.242521412 -0.530816721 -0.531

0.453723834 0.164625474 0.1650.179080381 -0.128488152 -0.128

0.277052607 -0.040152538 -0.04

-0.254567178 -0.579802833 -0.58

0.383055343 0.049789178 0.05

-0.144549186 -0.477815351 -0.478

0.004015255 -0.355751593 -0.356

-0.088335614 -0.450511615 -0.451

-0.004015255 -0.367797358 -0.368

0.134912574 -0.234490886 -0.234

-1.452719321 -1.823728883 -1.82

0.125275961 -0.245733601 -0.246

-0.172655972 -0.550892993 -0.551

0.271431249 -0.110017976 -0.11

0.09315392 -0.306765478 -0.307

-0.130094268 -0.544468584 -0.544

0.076289848 -0.33969057 -0.34

0.597469969 0.1806865 0.181

-0.872916474 -1.293715198 -1.294

-0.275446505 -0.717927606 -0.72

0.013651868 -0.465769579 -0.466

-0.642440827 -1.12668058 -1.13-0.317205158 -0.801444911 -0.801

-0.179080381 -0.665729287 -0.666

-0.076289848 -0.568560111 -0.569

-0.09315392 -0.586227234 -0.586

-0.013651868 -0.506725182 -0.507

-0.125275961 -0.621561479 -0.622

0.129291216 -0.374221761 -0.374

-0.134912574 -0.639228602 -0.639

-0.298734985 -0.818308982 -0.818

-0.389479751 -0.913872054 -0.914

0.000803051 -0.534831966 -0.535

-0.000803051 -0.537241119 -0.537

-0.477815365 -1.016662586 -1.017

-0.536438091 -1.084921924 -1.085

0.373418731 -0.198353581 -0.198

0.275446505 -0.307568521 -0.308

-0.277052607 -0.871310347 -0.871

0.145352237 -0.467375676 -0.467

0.030515939 -0.599879096 -0.6



-0.129291216 -0.762095404 -0.762

-0.271431249 -0.924311712 -0.924

-0.030515939 -0.691426912 -0.691

0.056213572 -0.610318758 -0.61

0.204778014 -0.475406183 -0.475

0.058622725 -0.630395033 -0.63

-0.383055343 -1.099376835 -1.01-0.056213572 -0.778959472 -0.779

-0.453723834 -1.196546009 -1.197

-0.058622725 -0.806263206 -0.806

-0.145352237 -0.903432381 -0.903

-0.275446505 -1.133908024 -1.134

-0.204778014 -1.089740216 -1.09

-0.373418731 -1.318609758 -1.319

-0.597469969 -1.611723382 -1.612

-1.419794228 -2.576187668 -2.576



Student Points (NDT-Z2) Points to Average (Z2-687.790 Points to Partner (P1-P2)

OU Ca 706.09 18.3 5.8

NU Mi 704.2 16.41 1.5

NU Ve 702.7 14.91 -1.5

Georgetown Ar 702.61 14.82 1.25

UM Al 701.99 14.2 2.64

Georgetown Ma 701.36 13.57 -1.25Houston La 701.26 13.47 18.09

Harvard Bo 701.2 13.41 1.5

OU Le 700.29 12.5 -5.8

Wake Wa 699.94 12.15 2.03

Harvard Su 699.7 11.91 -1.5

UM Pa 699.35 11.56 -2.64

Towson Ru 699.1 11.31 5.93

Rutgers Sm 698.53 10.74 3.27

Wake Le 697.91 10.12 -2.03

Emory Si 697 9.21 5.02

KU Ca 696.82 9.03 7.58

UMW Mc 696.62 8.83 4.17

MSU Ra 696.62 8.83 3.66

UWG Ar 696.54 8.75 5.13

Harvard Di 695.58 7.79 4.74

Cal Sp 695.27 7.48 4.9

Rutgers Ra 695.26 7.47 -3.27

Liberty Ed 695.25 7.46 0.98

Georgetown Mc 694.9 7.11 1.64

OU Ch 694.43 6.64 2.36

Liberty Ch 694.27

6.48 -0.98OU Le 694.06 6.27 1.8

Wake Mi 693.98 6.19 0.53

Wake Qu 693.45 5.66 -0.53

UNT Ke 693.42 5.63 10.87

Georgetown En 693.26 5.47 -1.64

Towson Jo 693.17 5.38 -5.93

Cal Se 693.07 5.28 4.65

Wake Langr 693.06 5.27 1.09

MSU Th 692.96 5.17 -3.66

Harvard He 692.72 4.93 7.61

UT Ma 692.61 4.82 3.71

Vermont Brough 692.57 4.78 0.85

UMW Pa 692.45 4.66 -4.17

OU Masty 692.26 4.47 -1.8

MN Cr 692.26 4.47 1.92

OU Baker 692.07 4.28 -2.36

UM Hirn 691.98 4.19 7.49

Emory Jo 691.98 4.19 -5.02

Wake Duf 691.97 4.18 -1.09





UM Krak 684.49 -3.3 -7.49

Liberty Mu 684.42 -3.37 -3.7

Bing Red 684.38 -3.41 1.1

UNLV Rod 684.26 -3.53 -5.39

Bay Boor 684.25 -3.54 1.62

MSU Bu 684.2 -3.59 -3.02

Emory Klar 684.19

-3.6 5.65KCKCC Cas 683.96 -3.83 2.23

GMU Kwon 683.84 -3.95 3.45

Wy Ma 683.74 -4.05 -3.17

Army Bar 683.64 -4.15 4.77

ASU Ch 683.64 -4.15 -1.8

USC Purk 683.31 -4.48 0.05

Bing Sehgal 683.28 -4.51 -1.1

USC Vit 683.26 -4.53 -0.05

UK Gel 683.19 -4.6 1.68

Houston Raj 683.17 -4.62 -18.09

Iowa Sch 683.17 -4.62 1.56

UTD Lo 683.08 -4.71 -2.15

GSU Floyd 683.04 -4.75 3.38

UCO Yo 682.81 -4.98 1.16

Baylor bacon 682.63 -5.16 -1.62

USC Sai 682.61 -5.18 0.95

Whit Men 682.6 -5.19 7.44

UNT Ander 682.55 -5.24 -10.87

Emory Chen 682.28 -5.51 -3.43

Texas Chow 681.82 -5.97 0.17

Towson thomas 681.76

-6.03 -8Bing Cepin 681.76 -6.03 -3.95

KCKCC Gon 681.73 -6.06 -2.23

USC haas 681.66 -6.13 -0.95

UCO Van 681.65 -6.14 -1.16

Texas Mal 681.65 -6.14 -0.17

Iowa Cro 681.61 -6.18 -1.56

JMU Lep 681.52 -6.27 1.61

UK Varg 681.51 -6.28 -1.68

Trinity So 681.32 -6.47 -3.72

Irvine Pe 681.26 -6.53 -4.85

Rutgers Staf 681.12 -6.67 0.01

Rutgers H 681.11 -6.68 -0.01

Concordia Snel 681.08 -6.71 -5.95

GA Davis 680.96 -6.83 -6.68

trinity vail 680.67 -7.12 4.65

Dart Chen 680.53 -7.26 3.43

GMU Moh 680.39 -7.4 -3.45

Vandy S 680.16 -7.63 1.81

JMU Bos 679.94 -7.85 0.38



JMU Miller (Ellie) 679.91 -7.88 -1.61

GSU Finch 679.66 -8.13 -3.38

JMU Miller (Elyssa) 679.56 -8.23 -0.38

Weber hen 679.49 -8.3 0.7

KSU Ma 679.32 -8.47 2.55

Dart Singh 679.21 -8.58 0.73

Army Saker 678.87

-8.92 -4.77Weber Tip 678.79 -9 -0.7

Emory Dean 678.54 -9.25 -5.65

Dart kreus 678.48 -9.31 -0.73

Vandy W 678.35 -9.44 -1.81

Dart Cram 677.1 -10.69 -3.43

KSU Klu 676.77 -11.02 -2.55

Trinity Yor 676.02 -11.77 -4.65

Whit Ba 675.16 -12.63 -7.44

UNT Sa 673.39 -14.4 -17.68



Prelim Ballots Ballots to Average Prelim Wins Wins to Average SOS (Opp Wins/64) P2P/10

23 10.86 8 3.95 0.59375 0.58

19 6.86 7 2.95 0.703125 0.15

19 6.86 7 2.95 0.703125 -0.15

18 5.86 6 1.95 0.59375 0.125

18 5.86 6 1.95 0.578125 0.264

18 5.86 6 1.95 0.59375 -0.12522 9.86 7 2.95 1.809

18 5.86 6 1.95 0.15

23 10.86 8 3.95 0.59375 -0.58

18 5.86 6 1.95 0.203

18 5.86 6 1.95 -0.15

18 5.86 6 1.95 0.578125 -0.264

16 3.86 6 1.95 0.593

18 5.86 7 2.95 0.327

18 5.86 6 1.95 -0.203

13 0.86 5 0.95 0.502

16 3.86 5 0.95 0.758

16 3.86 6 1.95 0.417

14 1.86 6 1.95 0.366

14 1.86 5 0.95 0.513

14 1.86 5 0.95 0.474

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 0.49

18 5.86 7 2.95 -0.327

13 0.86 5 0.95 0.098

18 5.86 6 1.95 0.164

14 1.86 5 0.95 0.236

13 0.86 5 0.95 -0.09816 3.86 5 0.95 0.18

15 2.86 5 0.95 0.053

15 2.86 5 0.95 -0.053

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 1.087

18 5.86 6 1.95 -0.164

16 3.86 6 1.95 -0.593

14 1.86 4 -0.05 0.465

10 -2.14 4 -0.05 0.109

14 1.86 6 1.95 -0.366

14 1.86 5 0.95 0.761

11 -1.14 5 0.95 0.371

14 1.86 4 -0.05 0.085

16 3.86 6 1.95 -0.417

16 3.86 5 0.95 -0.18

13 0.86 5 0.95 0.192

14 1.86 5 0.95 -0.236

17 4.86 6 1.95 0.749

13 0.86 5 0.95 -0.502

10 -2.14 4 -0.05 -0.109



18 5.86 6 1.95 0.184

14 1.86 4 -0.05 -0.085

14 1.86 5 0.95 -0.513

11 -1.14 4 -0.05 0.172

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 1.768

17 4.86 5 0.95 0.153

14 1.86 5 0.95 -0.47412 -0.14 4 -0.05 -0.49

13 0.86 5 0.95 -0.192

18 5.86 6 1.95 -0.184

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 0.8

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 0.539

11 -1.14 4 -0.05 0.144

8 -4.14 2 -2.05 0.01

14 1.86 4 -0.05 0.452

8 -4.14 2 -2.05 -0.01

17 4.86 5 0.95 -0.153

11 -1.14 4 -0.05 -0.172

16 3.86 5 0.95 -0.758

14 1.86 5 0.95 0.047

11 -1.14 5 0.95 -0.371

14 1.86 5 0.95 -0.047

14 1.86 4 -0.05 -0.465

17 4.86 5 0.95 0.384

17 4.86 5 0.95 0.261

17 4.86 5 0.95 0.27

13 0.86 4 -0.05 0.37

11 -1.14 4 -0.05 -0.14411 -1.14 4 -0.05 0.183

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 0.668

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 0.302

14 1.86 4 -0.05 0.595

7 -5.14 3 -1.05 0.317

11 -1.14 4 -0.05 -0.183

10 -2.14 4 -0.05 0.485

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 0.395

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 0.343

17 4.86 5 0.95 -0.261

17 4.86 5 0.95 -0.27

13 0.86 3 -1.05 0.18

9 -3.14 4 -0.05 0.215

14 1.86 5 0.95 -0.761

11 -1.14 3 -1.05 0.372

14 1.86 4 -0.05 -0.452

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 0.01

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 -0.01

17 4.86 5 0.95 -0.384



17 4.86 6 1.95 -0.749

13 0.86 4 -0.05 -0.37

11 -1.14 2 -2.05 0.11

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 -0.539

11 -1.14 3 -1.05 0.162

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 -0.302

10 -2.14 3 -1.05 0.5658 -4.14 3 -1.05 0.223

8 -4.14 2 -2.05 0.345

7 -5.14 3 -1.05 -0.317

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 0.477

13 0.86 3 -1.05 -0.18

8 -4.14 3 -1.05 0.005

11 -1.14 2 -2.05 -0.11

8 -4.14 3 -1.05 -0.005

7 -5.14 3 -1.05 0.168

22 9.86 7 2.95 -1.809

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 0.156

9 -3.14 4 -0.05 -0.215

8 -4.14 2 -2.05 0.338

9 -3.14 2 -2.05 0.116

11 -1.14 3 -1.05 -0.162

8 -4.14 2 -2.05 0.095

7 -5.14 3 -1.05 0.744

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 -1.087

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 -0.343

7 -5.14 1 -3.05 0.017

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 -0.89 -3.14 3 -1.05 -0.395

8 -4.14 3 -1.05 -0.223

8 -4.14 2 -2.05 -0.095

9 -3.14 2 -2.05 -0.116

7 -5.14 1 -3.05 -0.017

9 -3.14 3 -1.05 -0.156

6 -6.14 3 -1.05 0.161

7 -5.14 3 -1.05 -0.168

11 -1.14 3 -1.05 -0.372

10 -2.14 4 -0.05 -0.485

9 -3.14 4 -0.05 0.001

9 -3.14 4 -0.05 -0.001

14 1.86 4 -0.05 -0.595

12 -0.14 4 -0.05 -0.668

8 -4.14 2 -2.05 0.465

7 -5.14 1 -3.05 0.343

8 -4.14 2 -2.05 -0.345

7 -5.14 3 -1.05 0.181

7 -5.14 2 -2.05 0.038





Aggregated Results:

Average Speaker Points 687.79

Average P2P Difference 3.461

Average Ballots 12.14

Average Wins 4.05

Notes:

Positive for "Points to Avg" is Good

Positive for "Points to Partner" is Good

Positive for "Ballots to Average" is Good

Positive for "Wins to Average" is Good

Correlation of Average Deviation to Wins: 0.803051034



Points (NDT-Z2) Prelim Wins

706.09 8

704.2 7 Points-Wins Correlation: 0.803051

702.7 7

702.61 6

701.99 6

701.36 6701.26 7

701.2 6

700.29 8

699.94 6

699.7 6

699.35 6

699.1 6

698.53 7

697.91 6

697 5

696.82 5

696.62 6

696.62 6

696.54 5

695.58 5

695.27 4

695.26 7

695.25 5

694.9 6

694.43 5

694.27

5694.06 5

693.98 5

693.45 5

693.42 4

693.26 6

693.17 6

693.07 4

693.06 4

692.96 6

692.72 5

692.61 5

692.57 4

692.45 6

692.26 5

692.26 5

692.07 5

691.98 6

691.98 5

691.97 4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

670 675 680 685 690 695 700

Points (X) to Wins (Y)





684.49 6

684.42 4

684.38 2

684.26 4

684.25 3

684.2 3

684.19 3

683.96 3

683.84 2

683.74 3

683.64 3

683.64 3

683.31 3

683.28 2

683.26 3

683.19 3

683.17 7

683.17 3

683.08 4

683.04 2

682.81 2

682.63 3

682.61 2

682.6 3

682.55 4

682.28 3

681.82 1

681.76

4681.76 3

681.73 3

681.66 2

681.65 2

681.65 1

681.61 3

681.52 3

681.51 3

681.32 3

681.26 4

681.12 4681.11 4

681.08 4

680.96 4

680.67 2

680.53 1

680.39 2

680.16 3

679.94 2



679.91 3

679.66 2

679.56 2

679.49 2

679.32 2

679.21 2

678.87 3

678.79 2

678.54 3

678.48 2

678.35 3

677.1 1

676.77 2

676.02 2

675.16 3

673.39 4



Points (NDT-Z2) Prelim Ballots

706.09 23

704.2 19 Points-Ballots Correlation:

702.7 19

702.61 18

701.99 18

701.36 18701.26 22

701.2 18

700.29 23

699.94 18

699.7 18

699.35 18

699.1 16

698.53 18

697.91 18

697 13

696.82 16

696.62 16

696.62 14

696.54 14

695.58 14

695.27 12

695.26 18

695.25 13

694.9 18

694.43 14

694.27

13694.06 16

693.98 15

693.45 15

693.42 12

693.26 18

693.17 16

693.07 14

693.06 10

692.96 14

692.72 14

692.61 11

692.57 14

692.45 16

692.26 16

692.26 13

692.07 14

691.98 17

691.98 13

691.97 10

705 710

0

5

10

15

20

25

670 675 680 685

Points (X)





684.49 17

684.42 13

684.38 11

684.26 12

684.25 11

684.2 9

684.19 10

683.96 8

683.84 8

683.74 7

683.64 9

683.64 13

683.31 8

683.28 11

683.26 8

683.19 7

683.17 22

683.17 9

683.08 9

683.04 8

682.81 9

682.63 11

682.61 8

682.6 7

682.55 12

682.28 9

681.82 7

681.76

12681.76 9

681.73 8

681.66 8

681.65 9

681.65 7

681.61 9

681.52 6

681.51 7

681.32 11

681.26 10

681.12 9681.11 9

681.08 14

680.96 12

680.67 8

680.53 7

680.39 8

680.16 7

679.94 7



679.91 6

679.66 8

679.56 7

679.49 5

679.32 7

679.21 5

678.87 9

678.79 5

678.54 10

678.48 5

678.35 7

677.1 7

676.77 7

676.02 8

675.16 7

673.39 12



0.769178

690 695 700 705 710

to Ballots (Y)

Documents

NDT WAR Data and Results