NBA Statistical Analysis

NBA Statistical Analysis

Econ 240AGroup Project II

12/3/08

Jeff LeeZhen Tian

Tsung-Ching HuangOystein TennumChristian Treubig

Eddie Bedach

Analysis Method

Statistics CollectedSalary – Dependent VariableHeightWeightPPG,RPG,APG,SPG,BPGAll-Star StatusNumber of teams played for

Analysis Method

300 player database created50 players from each division

- Starters and Second string from each team

Exploratory Data Analysis Investigation of various factors on salary

Ordinary Least Square - T-statistic, F-statisticAnalysis of Variance

Physical Attributes

Height and weight found to be insignificant.

Tall/Weak is undesirable

Short/Strong is undesirable

Dependent Variable: SALARY

Method: Least Squares

Sample: 1 300

Included observations: 300

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

HEIGHT 151029.1 103165.2 1.463954 0.1443

WEIGHT 16999.88 14633.30 1.161726 0.2463

C -9864304. 6208414. -1.588861 0.1132

R-squared 0.041654 Mean dependent var 5911743.

Adjusted R-squared 0.035223 S.D. dependent var 5018847.

S.E. of regression 4929667. Akaike info criterion 33.66936

Sum squared resid 7.24E+15 Schwarz criterion 33.70631

Log likelihood -5064.238 F-statistic 6.476267

Durbin-Watson stat 1.925366 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001765

Why I was picked after you?

U’re shorter yet fatter…

Physical Attributes

Created dummy variable:

- Body = height * weight

Body was found to be significant



Sample: 1 300



BODY 338.0742 94.68063 3.570680 0.0004

C -101890.1 1707911. -0.059658 0.9525







Statistical Performance

Most Important Factors

1. Blocks

2. Assists

3. Points

4. Rebounds

5. Steals



Sample: 1 300



APG 541720.3 159737.9 3.391307 0.0008

BPG 1727532. 488891.3 3.533571 0.0005

PPG 502778.7 52958.75 9.493781 0.0000

RPG 424591.4 130701.2 3.248565 0.0013

SPG -549798.2 664644.0 -0.827207 0.4088

C -2748804. 465895.7 -5.900042 0.0000







“Defense Wins Championships”

Dependent Variable: SALARYMethod: Least SquaresSample: 1 300Included observations: 300


DEFENSE 511695.3 43166.52 11.85399 0.0000OFFENSE 78918.61 6159.982 12.81150 0.0000

C 2453181. 266479.8 9.205881 0.0000

R-squared 0.553566 Mean dependent var 5911743.Adjusted R-squared 0.550570 S.D. dependent var 5018847.S.E. of regression 3364611. Akaike info criterion 32.90544Sum squared resid 3.37E+15 Schwarz criterion 32.94239Log likelihood -4949.269 Hannan-Quinn criter. 32.92022F-statistic 184.7563 Durbin-Watson stat 1.953691Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

To investigate this, two dummy variables

were created

OFFENSE = PPG*APG

DEFENSE = RPG*BPG*SPG

Defense was found to be much more

significant.

Teams are willing to pay more for defensive stars

All-Star Status

Highly Significant

All Stars make over an average of $3,426,702 more than non all star players



Sample: 1 300



ALLSTAR 3426702. 624127.2 5.490390 0.0000

APG 462621.4 153067.2 3.022343 0.0027

BPG 1223729. 475336.2 2.574450 0.0105

PPG 363983.5 56493.55 6.442921 0.0000

RPG 425565.1 124687.2 3.413062 0.0007

SPG -569773.6 634071.1 -0.898596 0.3696

C -1448944. 503581.2 -2.877281 0.0043







All Star/Non All Star Difference

5 Yrs for $50,000,000 6 Yrs for $118,000,000

16.1 points/game 16.8 points/game

5.1 rebounds/game 5.8 rebounds/game

2.2 assists/game 1.8 assists/game

9 Years for 3 Teams 10 Years for 2 Team

78 inches + 225 lbs 82 inches + 230 lbs

All-Star? No All-Star? Yes, only 2005

Why I earn much less than u?

Franchise Player

A player who plays for one team for the majority of his career is considered a “Franchise Player.”

Create a dummy variable ‘FRANCHISEVET.’

Product of Variables Franchise and Veteran

Franchise = 1 if player has played for one team only

Veteran = 1 if Years Played >5

Franchise Players make nearly 3 million more per year, on average



Sample: 1 300



FRANCHISEVET 2997136. 774263.4 3.870952 0.0001

APG 554151.9 156114.3 3.549654 0.0004

BPG 1463554. 482542.9 3.033003 0.0026

PPG 471283.8 52382.18 8.997027 0.0000

RPG 432064.7 127723.9 3.382803 0.0008

SPG -411064.2 650417.5 -0.632001 0.5279

C -2616565. 456510.7 -5.731662 0.0000







Larry Bird Rule

Exceed the salary cap to re-sign their free agents

Up to maximum salary

Up to 6 Years in Length

Play 3 seasons without waived or traded as a free agent

Money, Money, Go My Home!

Linear Regression



TEAM -1641837. 157925.7 -10.39626 0.0000YEARS 1243723. 71014.20 17.51373 0.0000

C 3018149. 376357.8 8.019361 0.0000


Two-Factor Anova

Yr3 Yr4 Yr5 Yr6 Yr7 Yr8 Yr9 Yr10 Yr11 Yr12

# Team1 2329805 8760335 14410581 15070550 15106000 15780000 5500000 18077903 20598704 21262500

# Team2 3448050 7800000 8353000 8500000 12222221 14431816 17810000 16447871 797581 20840625

# Team3 2272860 3850000 5050000 9249980 14232567 8640000 11250000 12528000 20370437 18388430

# Team4 797,581 3500000 4250000 10602667 4350000 8513916 10333334 9226250 10000000 13930000

Correlation Test for Team/Years

CorrelationTeam Years

Team 1 0.626692

Years 0.626692 1

Without Replication

ANOVA: Two-Factor Without Replication

Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit

Rows 1.9E+14 3 6.33E+13 3.644741 0.025061 2.960351

Columns 7.31E+14 9 8.12E+13 4.670364 0.000857 2.250131

Error 4.69E+14 27 1.74E+13 　

　　

Total 1.39E+15 39　　　　

Difference by Larry Bird Rule

$11,050,000 for 2008 $20,598,704 for 2008

NBA Finals MVP

NBA All Star Players

1997 NBA Draft (TD:1st Vs CP:3rd)

Mr. Big Shot The Big Fundamental

Played for 6 teams! Spurs is my home!

Why I earn much less than u?

Understand?

Final Regression

Selected most important factors to run a final regression

- Offense

- Defense

- Body

- Allstar

- Team

- Years

All found to be significant

.71 R-squared value



OFFENSE 50790.70 6940.318 7.318209 0.0000DEFENSE 253314.5 41726.40 6.070846 0.0000

BODY 195.7037 63.62858 3.075720 0.0023ALLSTAR 2248836. 613261.7 3.667008 0.0003

TEAM -720187.6 136924.6 -5.259740 0.0000YEARS 631556.1 69170.72 9.130396 0.0000

C -1699360. 1205788. -1.409336 0.1598


Conclusions

Body=Money

Defense Wins Champions

Be an All-Star

Try to Stay in One Team for a Couple of Years

Thank You

Documents

NBA Statistical Analysis