NJDEP Bureau of Evaluation & Planning

December 13, 2017

The 2011 National-scale Air

Toxics Assessment (NATA)

Update

NATA Background

• 2011 NATA is the 5th National-scale assessment (1996,

1999, 2002, 2005) and was released to the public Dec 17,

2015

• Concentrations, exposures, and risks based on air quality

modeling of emissions from the 2011 National Emissions

Inventory (NEI) for Clean Air Act Hazardous Air Pollutants

(HAP) and Diesel Particulate Matter (DPM)

• NATA is a screening-level characterization of air toxics across

the U.S.

– Nationwide assessment with census tract resolution

– Cancer and noncancer risk estimates for about 140 HAPs

with health data based on chronic exposures

– Ambient concentration estimates for 180 CAA HAPs plus

DPM

• NATA Uses

– To identify locations of interest for further study

– To prioritize pollutants and emission sources

– To inform monitoring program

NATA Background

Source Attribution –

Concentrations/Risks by These Groups

Onroad and Nonroad

Nonpoint stationaryPoint

Other (CMAQ only)

Nonpoint nonroad

Refueling

Light duty gasLight duty dieselHeavy duty gas

Heavy duty diesel

Nonroad construction

Nonroad pleasurecraft

Nonroad gas otherNonroad diesel other

Bulk gasoline terminalsChemical manufacturingMiningIndustrial not elsewhere classifiedNonferrous metalsOil and gasRefineriesStorage and transferGas stations (Stage 1)Industrial, commercial institutional fuel combustionLandfillsSurface coating and industrial solventWaste disposal otherCommercial CookingMiscellaneous nonindustrialResidential wood combustionResidential fuel combustion except woodConsumer & commercial solventSolvent degreasingSolvent dry cleaningNon-industrial surface coating

Airports

Railyards

Other point

Fires

Biogenics

Secondary formation

CMV-Ports

CMV-UnderwayLocomotives

Risk Assessment

&

Characterization

Air Dispersion Modeling

(AERMOD)Photochemical Grid

Modeling (CMAQ)

Emissions

Processing

(SMOKE)

Hybrid Approach

combine AERMOD and CMAQ to

predict ambient concentrations at

census blocks

Inventory

(2011 NEI V2)

Point, Nonpoint &

Mobile Sources

Inhalation

Exposure

(apply

exposure

ratios)

2011 NATA Approach

Biogenics & Fires

Add Background

Ambient

Monitoring Data

CMAQ

HAPSNon-CMAQ

HAPS*~140 HAPs (mostly

lower risk HAPs)*

Modeled

Ambient

concentrations

Model

Performance

Evaluation

~40 HAPs (mostly high risk HAPs)

12 Urban Areas with Risks

Greater than 100-in-1 million

12 Urban Areas with

Risk Greater than

100- in a million

15

2011 NATA CANCER RISKS for the ENTIRE US

POLLUTANT CONTRIBUTIONS

2011 NATA CANCER RISKS for the ENTIRE US

SOURCE CATEGORY CONTRIBUTIONS

Primary emissions

8

2011 NATA RESPIRATORY RISKS for the ENTIRE US

POLLUTANT CONTRIBUTIONS

2011 NATA RESPIRATORY RISKS for the ENTIRE US

SOURCE SECTOR CONTRIBUTIONS

New Jersey’s Chemicals of Concern and the Associated Risk Contribution

Diesel Particulate Matter – 91%

New Jersey’s Chemicals of Concern and the Associated Risk Contribution

Ames

Advanced

Material

emissions:

2009 = 407 lbs.

2010 = 592 lbs.

2011 = 178 lbs.

2012 = 61 lbs.

2013 = 32 lbs.

2014 = 45 lbs.2015 = 64 lbs.

2016 = 45 lbs.

Camden County

Municipal Utilities

Authority (CCMUA)

emissions:

2009 = 1.42 tons

2010 = 6.6 tons

2011 = 6.75 tons

2012 = 5.06 tons

2013 = 1.22 tons

2014 = 1.26 tons

2015 = 6.24 tons